Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Fuck that bum, let’s go Joe!

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

We still have time to mess this up!

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

Cole, when it comes to calico cats, restraint is overrated.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

“And when the Committee says to “report your income,” that could mean anything!

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Let’s finish the job.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 696: A Brief Saturday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 696: A Brief Saturday Night Update

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Just a brief(ish) Saturday night update.

Today is the memorial day for the Defenders of the Donetsk Airport:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Through the entire architecture of security commitments, we are effectively reviving the system of international law – address by the President of Ukraine

20 January 2024 – 17:30

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

I have a few things to report about this day.

I’m already holding meetings regarding the upcoming week – our international events that we are planning.

It concerns relations with partners in Europe, in the European Union. We will add more activity.

It also relates to security commitments for Ukraine. We are preparing new agreements with partners – strong bilateral agreements. January and February are expected to bring appropriate results. We already see specific dates when new strong documents can be expected. I am grateful to our entire team involved in negotiations, to all the leaders, and to those countries ready for truly ambitious decisions.

Through the entire architecture of security commitments – a new architecture – we are effectively bringing to life, reviving the system of international law. And when justice is restored for Ukraine, when our security is reinstated, it will work for others in the world as well.

We are preparing further work with our key partners, including specific defense support right now, in these weeks and months. There will be new defense packages. I am grateful to all friends of Ukraine worldwide who understand that the battlefield cannot simply wait and that the saving of lives cannot be delayed. To all those who are trying to expedite the necessary decisions – they are needed right now.

Only in the past day, there were over a hundred intense combat clashes on the front lines. The most severe were in Avdiivka, Maryinka direction – Krasnohorivka, Lyman direction, Siversk direction, Kupyansk direction, and near Kherson– in Krynyky. Our resilience now, the destruction of the enemy now, is vital. There should be no illusions in Russia that they will succeed in anything. And I thank every one of our soldiers, everyone in Ukraine who fights now, works now and helps so that our people, our state can win this year.

I especially want to single out our soldiers today who are fighting in the South. In particular, Senior Soldier Serhiy Filonenko, from the 123rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade. Thank you for your bravery! Chief Sergeant of the Logistics Company of the 124th Territorial Defense Brigade, Andriy Suchok. Thank you for significant combat achievements in Kherson region! Soldier Oleksandr Plakhotniuk, from the 38th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment. Thank you for precision during the repulsion of attacks by Russian terrorists on our ports in Odesa region.

Glory to all whose courage and effectiveness become Ukraine’s strength – the collective strength of our people! Let eternal and bright memory be for all those who fought for our state and gave their lives so that Ukraine could live. Today, Ukraine remembers the defenders of Donetsk airport – one of those battles that determined our modern history. Ukrainians are stronger than any circumstances. We all must be aware of this strength. And we must win in this war. For our people, for our state, for the Russian evil to forever remember that it will never gain anything more.

Glory to Ukraine!

From NBC:

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden’s top aides bluntly told lawmakers in a private meeting on Wednesday that if Congress fails to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war in a matter of weeks — months at best, according to two people familiar with the meeting.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan and the Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the lawmakers that Ukraine will run out of certain air defense and artillery capabilities in the coming weeks, according to the people familiar with the meeting.

The grim assessment, which one White House official described as “incredibly stark,” was delivered as the future of Ukraine aid has never been more uncertain. It also comes as White House officials are increasingly alarmed at the prospect of Biden failing to follow through with his promise that the U.S. will be there for Kyiv “as long as it takes.”

In Wednesday’s meeting at the White House, Sullivan and Haines gave the top congressional leaders a classified time frame for when Ukraine’s key military resources will be significantly depleted, and a detailed assessment of the current dynamics on the battlefield, the two people familiar with the meeting said.

While Sullivan did not predict an outright imminent victory for Russia, a White House official said, he emphasized that Ukraine’s position would grow more difficult over the course of the year by offering specific date ranges of when the country will run low on various capabilities in the short-term.

The president’s aides told the lawmakers that the lack of aid would affect far more than Ukraine and could prompt other countries that rely on the U.S., including Japan and South Korea, to rethink their alliances, according to the people familiar with the meeting. Their message, these people said, was that a Russian victory simply because the U.S. couldn’t come through “will reverberate around the world.”

The bipartisan group of congressional leaders at the meeting agreed that providing aid to Ukraine is a national security priority, but acknowledged that there are disagreements about how to proceed legislatively, these people said.

Biden has warned for months, including in an Oval Office address to the nation, that a lack of new aid would be dire for Ukraine and the broader world order. The White House said last month that it had provided Ukraine with the last of available U.S. funds, a pronouncement that drew skepticism from some lawmakers, including even those who support Ukraine aid.

Sullivan and Haines predicted overall that, without more U.S. military aid, Ukrainian forces could only continue fighting the Russians for weeks, maybe months, according to the people familiar with the meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin is making battlefield decisions based on Ukraine’s vulnerabilities since the Biden administration said last month it had provided Kyiv with the last of authorized U.S. military assistance, a White House official said.

For instance, Sullivan and Haines told the lawmakers, it’s no coincidence that Putin launched his largest aerial assault since the war began in February 2022 after Congress went home last month without approving additional aid, according to the people familiar with the meeting.

The president’s aides made the case that Ukraine is much more susceptible to Moscow’s attacks while Congress is at a standstill, these people said.

The two people familiar with Wednesday’s meeting said the administration officials went into greater detail on the U.S. assessment of Ukraine now and in the future.

Much more at the link if you can stomach it.

Bakhmut:

Avdiivka:

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Lviv:

 

Tula, Russia:

Ust Luga, Russia:

/1. Russian media report about explosions and fire in the area of ​​the oil terminal of the sea port in the city of Ust-Luga, near St. Petersburg. Presumably one of the oil reservoirs is on fire. As reported by Russian media it was a drone attack. Ust-Luga is located 860km from the Ukrainian border.

Heavy explosions and large fires in the Leningrad Region, Russia, almost 900km from the Ukrainian border. According to the governor of the Leningrad region, the facilities of the Novatek natural gas company are compromised. Locals reported that they heard the sounds of drones before the explosion.

Source: https://t.me/uniannet

#Russia #Leningrad #Ukraine

Bryansk Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. So here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

21Comments

  2. 2.

    Anoniminous

    The AQ-400 Scythe was supplied to the Ukrainian military late last month. Made out of plywood it has a much weaker radar signature than metal clad aircraft. Also their flight characteristics tend to have them classified as noise by targeting systems. This weapons platform should be a nice addition to the Ukrainian arsenal.

    In the bigger picture, the Ukrainians say they are planning to build a million FPV and “more than” 11,000 medium and long-range drones this year. I hope they reach those numbers. Drones, like tanks, need to be operated in mass for maximum effectiveness.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    if Congress fails to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war in a matter of weeks — months at best, according to two people familiar with the meeting.

    If that happens, I want BJ to start fundraising a cadre of goons to kidnap every pro-putin GOPer in Congress and dropping them off with no supplies or phones in some random desolate woods in russia. Fuck every single one of them all to hell.

    I can’t allow myself to imagine what it would look like for things to go as the quote indicates. Not if I want to retain even a shred of my barely-existent sanity.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Another Scott

    ICYMI, …

    Samuel Bendett
    @sambendett
    12h

    QUICK THREAD: 1/ An unusually candid assessment on the Russian state TV from a military correspondent on the state of drone warfare in Ukraine: “…if we (Russian military) had taken the lessons of commercial drone uses more seriously from previous conflicts…”

    Jan 20, 2024 · 2:12 PM UTC

    2/ …”such as Syria, Middle East, uses of this technology in Donbas in 2014-2015, we would be in a much better position when it comes to drone manufacturing and use. But I want to remand you that just 2.5 years ago, some people who call themselves “military experts…”

    3/ “…were arrogantly laughing at the concept of using FPV drones, calling them “toys” and claiming that electronic warfare will solve all drone issue. And it is those people who stood in the way of (Russia’s) timely manufacture and adoption of FPVs for combat.”

    4/ “Regarding claims of Ukrainian military’s diminishing stock of artillery shells – as long as they have enough FPV and similar drones, they can hold out for at least a year and cause a lot of issues for the Russian military.”

    We’ll see.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  8. 8.

    wjca

    if Congress fails to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war in a matter of weeks

    Perhaps it is time to ask House Republicans: “How happy will you be to spend the fall repeatedly hearing ‘Who lost Ukraine?‘  Because it can’t fail to happen if you don’t get this aid package done.”

    Being characterized as losers, even if indirectly, hits them where they live.

  9. 9.

    Jay

    (((Tendar)))
    @Tendar
    15h
    In the last days, information was circulating that a Russian Tarantul-class corvette has been struck at the port of Russian-occupied Sevastopol by Ukrainian USVs. It was first brought up by the “Atesh” resistance group in Russian-occupied Crimea and caused the Russian regime to increase counter operations against them.

    Satellite pictures showing the Sevastopol Bay back up the story that the Russian war ship has been indeed hit.

    Source of pics: @InformNapalm

    https://nitter.net/Tendar/status/1748678303437730036#m

  10. 10.

    Roberto el oso

    Thank you per usual, Adam. Whenever you start off by saying your post will be “briefish” I always feel like a supreme slacker!

  11. 11.

    Anoniminous

    … if Congress fails to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war in a matter of weeks — months at best

    Frankly, I don’t think the political side of the Biden administration – including Biden – knows Shit from Shinola about Military Art and Science such as  modern Combined Arms Operations and Will to Combat. The Ukrainians fought off the Russians back in the beginning of this thing with much, much, less than they have now.  Would the loss of US military support hurt Ukraine?  Yes.  Would the loss of US military support cause the Ukrainians to collapse into a pile of goo?  No.

  14. 14.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: I saw that. Held off on posting it, not because I don’t think Tendar is trustworthy, but I wanted a second source of confirmation.

  17. 17.

    Andrya

    @wjca:   I wish your idea was true, but I don’t think so.  My take is that Republicans, despite the fact that THEY CAUSED THIS, think they can hang it around President Biden’s neck:  “This would never have happened if our TOUGH GUY MANLY MAN TRUMP had been president.  Putin would never have invaded Ukraine if Trump was president!  Trump would have stopped the war in 24 hours.”

    Lying fuckers.

  18. 18.

    Jay

    On December 22, NAFO member “Beefeater” wrote in a post on X that the campaign was in “full swing” and included a photo collage of 12 Russian Olympic athletes wearing military uniforms. The collage has since gone viral, shared by thousands on X and other social media platforms.

    “The Russian Olympic Committee is sponsored by the Russian Ministry of Defense, and almost half of the Russian medals at the last Olympics in Tokyo were won by privates, sergeants, ensigns and officers from the Russian army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Russian National Guard,” Beefeater wrote.

    That is true.

    https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-pro-ukrainian-nafo-fellas-are-right-russian-sports-closely-tied-with-army/7446881.html

  19. 19.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Saw it in a bunch of places, one poster thought the guy was just being a troll, but several experts reviewing the vids said there were none of the telltale visual signals of trolling or trying to be outrageous.

  20. 20.

    devore

    thanks for your excellent – as always – daily update.

    Pretty alarming news that I don’t think I’ve heard elsewhere.   Granted, it seems like most of America doesn’t care, which is beyond sad.

  21. 21.

    Chris

    @wjca:

    They’d be thrilled. They’ll blame it on Biden, the media will amplify everything and call it “Afghanistan all over again,” and the average dumbest swing voter who thinks the President is a god-king will swallow it.

Comments are closed.