I think there’s a non trivial chance Trump won’t be able to make the $175M bond either. So apparent victory will actly mean ten more days of begging, stories about his precarious finances, speculation about bankruptcy, all leading up to failing to get the smaller amount either.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) March 26, 2024
A.B. Stoddard, at the Bulwark — “Trump’s Legal Fee Scam Is Just the Start, and Republicans Know It”:
REPUBLICANS KNEW MAKING HISTORY by nominating a four-time-indicted individual for the presidency would be, well, a little complicated. They knew they would have to explain away an insurrection and the theft of national secrets. They knew they would have to vouch for him against “racist” prosecutors in New York and Georgia, and a “weaponized” Department of Justice for bringing “fake” charges against him.
Fortunately they were assured that Donald Trump could, and would, pay for millions upon millions of dollars in legal bills, and—after anemic fundraising and an uninterrupted string of defeats—the GOP was getting its act together and preparing to win everywhere in this critical election year.
And then last week, Trump’s legal fee scam came to light when the Associated Press noticed the fine print on an invitation to a megadonor event next month:
Donations to the Trump 47 Committee will first be used to give the maximum amount allowed under federal law to Trump’s campaign. Anything left over from the donation next goes toward a maximum contribution to Save America, and then anything left from there goes to the RNC and then to state political parties.
… So at massive-dollar events, most of the money will still go to the RNC, but at smaller fundraising events, much of it will go to Trump. The arrangement allows Trump “to tap funds from larger donors for his legal matters without the money ever passing through the RNC,” the New York Times wrote…
In a normal political party a guy who is bragging that he has “ALMOST FIVE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS IN CASH, A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WHICH I INTENDED TO USE IN MY CAMPAIGN FOR PRESIDENT,” wouldn’t be diverting money from the party coffers to pay for his criminal habit…
It’s not just Trump’s party now—because he secured a third nomination and he forced McConnell to give up his job as Senate leader—but it’s his party no matter what happens this November. The RNC will be socking away money now for the next steal, in case Biden wins. That’s far more important to Lara and Trump than downballot races.
Should Trump win, does anyone expect the RNC, in a second Trump term, to raise money for a future Republican primary, let alone nominee? They may pretend to, for a while, but donors know that money will find its way to a Don Jr. candidacy, or to his father’s pockets. No questions asked…
All Trump cares about is attention and money. Imagining donor dollars will go to anything but his needs—from here on out—is lunacy.
If Republicans are paying his legal bills now just imagine what they will rationalize, because of what he will demand, even a year from now.
Fortunately for Republicans, they deserve all of this. And so much more.
Trump insists he’s “allowed” to take foreign money to pay his bond pic.twitter.com/Ocf9zb9uW2
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 25, 2024
#DonPoorleone is the GOP nominee! pic.twitter.com/cFkog1aQsJ
— Holly Lee (@LeeHolly81) March 24, 2024
Horserace-tout pundits hardest hit…
I think we are all due an article from an independent like you on how Trump should drop out since he cant run a normal campaign not to mention someone with those many charges shouldnt be running in the first place. RNS should replace him
— Jack Rack 🇺🇸 (@jackisjake) March 25, 2024


On The Road – frosty – 3rd Annual National Park/COVID Challenge – Oregon – Portland
Baud
Nate Silver should retire if he can’t stop being a douche.
Melancholy Jaques
@Baud:
I get the impression that he will spend the rest of his career attacking and demeaning Democrats. He gives off a very strong ex-boyfriend vibe.
AxelFoley
Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore collapses after being hit by a ship:
https://youtu.be/zFGGuUQtjok?si=_ud_Wo27ei8NRw6
https://youtu.be/b4w2KGg1ydU?si=Z1cS2GRkFNsVCEjb
Damn…
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Was there some day last where where
everyoneNate Silver forgot how disingenuous implications work?Baud
@AxelFoley:
That just does not happen. Captain and company are going to be in a world of hurt.
Baud
@Melancholy Jaques:
Hack deficit grows.
Baud
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
Pay day.
eclare
Happy to report that there was a one minute Biden ad in The Bachelor finale last night. The audience skews young and female, and the ad mentioned choice, among other things.
And yes, I watch The Bachelor, it’s harmless drama, as opposed to election drama.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Baud: Cheeky.
piratedan
tbf, I can understand Nate’s POV, I really can. IF Biden can’t run a normal campaign, yet the evidence over the last two weeks shows that he can, so why push the article? Why run the clickbait?
He could have just as easily flipped that script and wrote that if DJT’s legal issues alone will prevent him from running a “normal” campaign, he should step aside without even speaking about his noted cognitive decline in the few campaign stops he has made.
I’m tired of the concern trolling posing as journalism.
eclare
@AxelFoley:
The video of the collapse is unreal.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Why, if you were paying consistent attention, as one expects a political journalist might…
Baud
@eclare:
Good to see you again.
TBone
Jon Stewart skewered the “victimlessness” of his fraud criming. I don’t watch him, but this seems pretty good. I know I feel victimized.
TBone
I am shocked and very sad about the bridge collapse nightmare. I wonder why the entire thing went down so quickly, instead of a section. I don’t know engineering and don’t need to know why, because it’s already happened, but damn that thing went down so completely and so fast. Ugh. I’ve had an irrational fear of bridges since childhood.
Baud
@Baud:
According to Reddit sleuths, the video suggests a mechanical failure on the ship. So the captain may not be at fault.
JoyceH
Did anyone see Trump speaking yesterday? Caught a clip on the news and he looked bad! His hair looked like straw and his lips were white. Maybe a bad hair day and overdoing the bronzer but it seemed like something more. I remember the brief and highly unattractive white lipstick craze back in the ‘60s and that’s what immediately came to mind. Of course he sounded crazy as always but he also looked sick.
Soprano2
So we’re still in the ER. The doctor says hubby is severely dehydrated, which caused his creatine and potassium to be high. They’re going to admit him. I’m going to have to figure out something different to do, because this can’t keep happening. It all goes back to the kidney stone removal. I’m amazed I make sense, I’ve been up almost 24 hours.
TBone
Everything he touches dies, and it’s all designed to demoralize us normal people so we’ll tune out. Not doing that. I still have hope for justice and will not be turned cynic. The Supremacist Court is walking into a firestorm if they think they’re going to do away with medication abortion. They will lose the election today if they outlaw it.
Baud
@Soprano2: 🤞
@TBone: 👍
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Soprano2: Best of luck
eclare
@Soprano2:
Oh I’m so sorry, the stress you are under has been unrelenting. Hugs.
JoyceH
@TBone: The Supremes need to imagine the same farfetched rationale being applied to Viagra – guys would storm the court if they tried to do that.
Splitting Image
The decline of Nate Silver has indeed been something to behold.
To be fair, I suppose, the decline of accurate polling has made it impossible for a site like 538 to function in the way it did in 2008. Moving on to punditry was probably a good career choice for Silver.
Baud
@JoyceH:
Men would vote GOP, even more than they do. They’re trying to convince women to act differently when it comes to voting for their interests.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Viagra isn’t a threat to the patriarchy. It won’t be.
TBone
@JoyceH: exactly. I’ve said that mandatory vasectomy should be performed on every male who wants a driver’s license (ejaculation is responsible for 100% of abortions). It can be reversed if the male has a permission note signed by a responsible female partner, a doctor, and an attorney. Let’s see responsibility placed squarely where it belongs, hahahahaha.
TBone
Mood 🎶
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=umopTKfas5g
Jay
@Soprano2:
So sorry, love to you and you hubby.
Central Planning
@piratedan: Nobody is going to threaten Nate’s life over an article about Biden.
TBone
Women have power. We’ve got half the money and ALL of the p***y. This power can be used for good if we’re not scorned and burned for it, and the patriarchy better hope that is the outcome, for their own good.
Jay
@Central Planning:
unless he is too positive,………
Central Planning
@Jay: He is a pundit. Of course he is too positive…. Frequently wrong but never in doubt.
p.a.
@Soprano2: Sending positive thoughts.
Jay
@Central Planning:
I meant, positive about the Harris/Biden ticket,….
scribbler
@Soprano2: So sorry this is happening to you both. Hopefully you can at least get some rest once he has been admitted.
Ramalama
@Soprano2: does your state or municipality offer any kind of facility for your husband to stay for the day? I know California has adult day care places (which my uncle refused to stay in because his level of dementia caused severe aggression). Can you qualify for some kind of state funding to hire a helper come stay with your husband at your home…giving you some reprieve? Maybe some of us keyboard warriors can look that stuff up for you.
Soprano2
Thanks guys. The worst thing now is that there is no comfortable chair or sofa for me to lay on. We’re waiting for a room, it could be five minutes or five hours.
Princess
@Melancholy Jaques: my theory is he thinks Democrats ruined his sex life somehow. Something something lockdowns mask mandates, I don’t know. It fits with the ex-boyfriend vibes.
Baud
@Soprano2:
At least you have us. In the old days, you’d be forced to sit their with nothing to do.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@AxelFoley: Would of been funny if it was hit by a rocket’s red glare
Soprano2
@Ramalama: I’m going to talk to the social worker at the hospital or his doctor’s office. I have lists of home health care companies from the local office on aging, as well as lists of adult daycares. I was waiting until his doctor’s appointment, which was supposed to be tomorrow. In order to get benefits from his health plan the doctor has to order it. My manager at the bar told me he would help me with putting cameras in the house.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud: You’re being nice.
Soprano2
@Baud: That’s true, I might have had some old magazines.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Melancholy Jaques:
He even posted quasi revenge porn of Biden (link)
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Baud: She’s sitting with us – hasnt she suffered enough?
lowtechcyclist
@AxelFoley:
Holy shit…I hope they were able to rescue those poor people who were driving on the bridge when it collapsed.
But my WAG is that a lot of them were killed by the force of the impact when their cars hit the water.
Holy shit, those poor people.
raven
@Soprano2: I suppose you have looked into the VA?
Princess
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: Oooo, that’s bitter.
lowtechcyclist
@Soprano2: So sorry to hear about this latest turn of events! All I can say is good luck, and my thoughts are with you and your husband.
catclub
Because it was dated nov 2023 but pushed now as clickbait for people like you and me.
Baud
@catclub:
Happens a lot with social media.
catclub
@Baud: Speaking of social media. CNN is laughing at Trump’s latest claims about the NYSE.
Claimed that he did not list his new stock on the NYSE because it is in New York, which is terrible for business. But his stock is listed on the NASDAQ, which is also in New York.
And there was a sad top man at NYSE begging him to list there. All the top people now at NYSE are women.
lowtechcyclist
@piratedan:
I can’t. Even before the past two weeks, there was approximately zero reason to believe that Biden couldn’t run a normal campaign, other than chuffing on all his media buddies’ “Biden is old” fumes.
It’s always been a hell of a lot more likely that Trump, just 3.5 years younger than Biden but in far worse shape physically (and apparently mentally), would be the one to be unable to conduct a normal campaign.
Nate Silver should just go away and disappear. Unfortunately, once somebody’s become a member of the Major Media Pundits Club, it’s nearly impossible to dislodge them. It’s like having tenure.
Nina
I used to take that bridge to work every day. We’ve been ordered back into the office as of 2 weeks from today, and my commute just got longer.
My quick amateur economic impact analysis – ships won’t be able to enter or leave the bay from the inner harbor, Port of Baltimore, or Curtis Bay Coast Guard yard for some time to come. They can still get in and out from Sparrows Point, but getting things south from there will be annoying. We may see some of the Port traffic shifting to empty space at Sparrows. Any truck traffic too tall or hazardous for either harbor tunnel will have to route around the west side of the Baltimore beltway, adding perhaps an hour or more to their trip (additional traffic will make rush hours more extreme). Ideal traffic conditions 35 minutes, but there will never again be ideal traffic conditions for the beltway. Bottom line, things in Washington DC from overseas or from north of Baltimore are going to cost more and take longer to get there. Things in the Northeast from south of Baltimore will cost more and take longer to get there.
Chris T.
@catclub: Well, there’s a technical sense in which NYSE is “in” NY and NASDAQ is “not in” NY, but it’s only true if you look at it in one particular squinty way. Both systems trade all over the place electronically, and both have NYC offices. It’s just that the traditional NYSE trading floor still exists (see https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/traders-floor-exchange.asp).
Don Poorleone is of course lying though.
Soprano2
@raven: Not yet, but I will be for sure.
Ramalama
@TBone: Jon Stewart is really good when it comes to skewering the financial sector / Wall Street. He did a lot of that brilliantly in his first go-round on the Daily Show.
Old Dan and Little Ann
That bridge collapse is scary. I can’t imagine watching the video knowing your car beat the collapse by seconds. The poor people who didn not, though. Ugh.
MomSense
@Soprano2:
Hugs coming your way. Really sorry you are going through all this.
Ramalama
@Soprano2: Will you be sure to send up an SOS if you ever need help researching / investigating (online or over the phone) options options to keep you and hubby safe? I’m online all the time (work) but would be happy to mix things up to help out. If that’s at all useful to you.
pat
@Soprano2:
Someone might have mentioned this in another thread, but I believe you should be looking for a Memory Care facility.
My sister went through the same thing, kept him at home as long as she could, cleaned up after he peed on the floor, tried to get him to shower and change his clothes, and finally found a place close enough that she can visit every day. And since she is a nurse, she can keep track of his meds, which seems to be very important.
Wishing both of you some relief soon…
Matt McIrvin
The thing that kind of blunts Digby’s warning about coming fascism from the other thread is that I heard all of those same warnings in 2016-2017 too–Masha Gessen and Sarah Kendzior were basically telling us that American democracy as we knew it was already over and was never coming back; the US was going to be a personalist autocracy similar to a post-Soviet republic from now on–and while there was a lot of damage, we did, to some degree, come back. (Kendzior seems to have adjusted to the failure of these predictions by arguing that, in fact, it did not come back, and the Democrats are secretly all part of the Trumpist autocracy. But few people believe this.)
Now, you know and I know that they’re planning to go way harder this time, and there’s reason to believe Trump could do things in a second term that he didn’t dare, or was prevented from doing, in the first. (The military was NOT keen on being his personal totalitarian enforcement arm, in particular. But he’s going to try to purge the brass and replace them with loyalists until they will–how successful will he be? I don’t know, but do you want to roll the dice?)
But will the general public understand that?
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
White people who tell you the fight is over want to help the GOP preserve white racial status. If you’re going to engage in that, at least follow non-white people.
EarthWindFire
@Soprano2: I’m so sorry. You’ve been through so much.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@piratedan:
That’s been national political “journalism” basically since Al Gore ran for president and an argument could be made it had it’s origins during the Clinton years.
Practically every national political “journalist” that I’ve seen come up since 2000 has either started out as a douche or turned into one ala Silver.
Matt McIrvin
What the Baltimore disaster is reminding me of is the 1982 Air Florida crash in Washington DC, when a plane trying to take off with with ice-laden wings scraped a bunch of vehicles off the 14th Street Bridge and went into the river. The bridge didn’t go down, but the loss of life was greater because of the airliner crash.
Scout211
@Soprano2: I’m so sorry. I hope today is a better day for both of you. Sending strength your way.
JPL
@Soprano2: I’m so sorry and hopefully you both find relief soon.
OzarkHillbilly
@Soprano2: Shit.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@lowtechcyclist:
Or an untreatable venereal disease. I consider clowns like Silver, Little Ezra plus the Usual Suspects like David Fucking Brooks, George Fucking Will, Chuck Fucking Todd, et. al. to be an STD on a already highly diseased media environment.
Betty Cracker
The FSK Bridge collapse in Balmer sounds similar to the Skyway Bridge collapse in Tampa Bay, which happened when I was in 9th or 10th grade. A tanker hit that bridge during a storm. It was surreal.
@Soprano2: What a hellish situation. I hope they get y’all squared away soon. I hate hospitals, but sometimes getting admitted can be a catalyst for a better care plan. I hope it shakes out that way for you.
Ken
Wikipedia has already updated the Francis Scott Key Bridge article to say it “was” a steel arch, “was” the third longest span, etc., and they’ve added an article on the collapse. There are times those volunteers terrify me with their efficiency — the most recent being when Queen Elizabeth died, and hundreds of articles were updated within hours to refer to King Charles.
@Matt McIrvin, @Betty Cracker: The article on the collapse has links to similar incidents, including the Skyway.
Suzanne
@Baud:
I don’t believe that.
What I do believe is that there’s, like, an intensity bias. A drama bias, if you will. A tendency to believe the things that are the most extreme possible versions of the narrative. It’s like a social version of Main Character Syndrome.
Scout211
I agree. Especially since four years ago, due to COVID restrictions, Biden did not run a “normal” campaign, and he won. Trump ran close to a normal campaign, with rallies and appearances all over the country. And he lost.
So Nate Silver seems to forgetting history while predicting the future.
Manyakitty
@Soprano2: so much to worry about. Stay strong and remember you’re not alone. Sending love.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Soprano2:
Hopefully you can power nap, chair or no chair. It’s amazing what even 20-30 minutes can do.
Good luck.
The Thin Black Duke
@Baud: I’m sorry.
Scout211
Update, two people have been rescued from the water.
Betty Cracker
Video of the bridge collapse. Damn!
kalakal
@TBone: It was a continuous truss bridge – each section is rigidly connected – remove one and the entire structure is liable to go.
The pictures are horrifying, I see it happened at about 1:30 am. Does anyone know how busy the bridge is at that time? The poor people crossing it I fear had little chance
opiejeanne
@Scout211: One is in critical condition, the other refused treatment and is thought to be uninjured.
Baud
@Suzanne:
IM unscientific, anecdotal HO, I think negative intensity has a racial bias that disproportionately affects white people. Much of it is probably subconscious, but I believe it stems from the same societal changes that affect MAGA.
opiejeanne
@kalakal: They’re looking for seven individuals, and one vehicle may have been a semi.
Baud
@opiejeanne:
That’s amazing.
Baud
Not sure if this crash would have happened in the daytime, but the tragedy would have been far worse if it did.
Soprano2
@pat: I’m going to talk to the elder law attorney about that on Thursday. I’ve been told I should get on the list for any place I might want since sometimes it takes a year or more to get a spot. I’ve been thinking about it, him being safe and taken care of is the most important thing. He’ll do things for other people that he won’t do for me.
kalakal
@Matt McIrvin: If he tried to use the military to gun down protesters it would collapse. Some would do it willingly, some would be ‘only following orders’, many would refuse. They’d be carrying out war crimes and it would be filmed and shown around the world. Also he may change the top commanders but has he looked at the composition of the US military lately,?
Nearly all military coups are not carried out by the senior commanders who he’d want to replace, it’s the middle ranks, the majors and colonels who are the drivers
Enhanced Voting Techniques
The ship would have been under the orders of a pilot from the port who is supposed to know the harbor so these things don’t happen.
Matt McIrvin
@Suzanne: But then, on the other side, there are all the normies who basically believe none of this matters much and the future will be like the past, and most of them are white too. The Cult of the Savvy attitude you see in pundit shows and newspaper op-eds.
That attitude reigned supreme in 2016, with all the confident predictions that either Trump’s campaign was going to crap out somehow, or that as President he’d be a showy figurehead with some sage eminence grise really running the show. And I see it in all the horserace punditry about 2024 that still, after all this time, treats Donald Trump as if he were a normal presidential candidate rather than an obvious would-be autocrat.
kalakal
@opiejeanne: thank you, that’s awful but much lower than I feared
eclare
@Baud:
CNN is now reporting that lights on the ship flickered several times before it hit the bridge, and there was black smoke, reinforcing what you wrote earlier that Reddit had been saying about possible mechanical problems.
Soprano2
@Betty Cracker: My mouth fell open watching that. Even as tired as I am that was horrifying. It looked like something you’d see in a movie.
Betty
@Soprano2: Joining the others here in sending good wishes and prayers for the situation to improve. Going from having a partner to help you with daily living to having a partner with significant needs is incredibly stressful. Hoping you are able to find a good solution for both of you..
SiubhanDuinne
@JoyceH:
Yes!! That’s exactly what I thought too. What a bizarre, if harmless, fad that was.
JML
That bridge collapse is giving me flashbacks to the I-35 bridge collapse in Minneapolis from 2007. I drove across that bridge twice a day for my work commute and could have easily been on it when it went down. When a bridge goes, it goes fast and scary.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Because the Soviet Union Republics where are fully functioning democracies previous to the 90s and not just regional administrative units staffed by central committee favorites as personal fiefdoms?
Kay
There would have been a (Baltimore) harbor pilot, right? That person knows why the ship hit the bridge.
pat
I just looked at the track the ship took, and it veered suddenly and headed straight for the post. Looks like sudden loss of control. And it sits there now with a bridge lying on its deck… Not going anywhere for a while, I bet.
I think I saw those at WaPo.
And to think of what might have happened during the rush hour. Yikes. Remember the (much smaller) bridge collapse years ago in Minneapolis?
eta:JML got there first.
Spanky
The FSK bridge is part of Baltimore’s loop, and thankfully its about the least traveled part. Through traffic is handled by 95 and 895, thankfully.
Current air temp 40 miles south of there is 39F, and I doubt the water temps are much higher. I can’t believe they found anyone alive.
Ken
@Soprano2: Oh lord. I hadn’t thought of what the conspiracy-minded types might do with this. “The collapse footage is CGI, and the people that were ‘rescued’ are crisis actors” is probably the saner end of the spectrum.
Kay
@Soprano2:
So sorry you’re in this and hope they get him a bed soon.
opiejeanne
@Soprano2: I’m so sorry you’re going through this. We’ve been there with parents and it’s just so draining. Please take care of yourself.
Spanky
@Kay: Reports say 2 pilots on board.
TBone
In the “Know Your PA Criminals” Department:
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/jeff-yass-pennsylvania-billionaire-susquehanna-international-group-tiktok-investor-20240325.html
SiubhanDuinne
@Soprano2:
OMG, I can’t even fathom what you must be going through right now. I’m so sorry. I hope they can get your hub stabilised, and I hope before long you’re able to get some quality sleep. Thinking of you. Hugs.
narya
@Soprano2: Hope this doesn’t sound weird, but I’m glad you continue to update us. I’ve been thinking of you and hoping you and your husband get the respite and care you need.
kalakal
@Soprano2: So sorry to hear this. My best wishes and hopes to you both
trnc
Great Stoddard article, but it seems like a stretch to claim in March that DT drove McConnell to agree to drop his leadership post after the election.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Soprano2: I’m so sorry. I hope you can at least get some sleep soon.
As you may know, I live in an over-55 condo bldg. There’s an assisted living/memory care building attached, and I see people like your husband moving there when it’s no longer safe or feasible for them to live in this bldg. It’s a hard decision, but in the long run, you just can’t leave things going on the way they are.
SFAW
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
No, it wouldn’t. And, yes, it’s too fucking soon for that shit.
catclub
So Biden did this to emphasize that he is in charge and terrible things happen on his watch. Makes perfect sense in the QA world.
Matt McIrvin
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: To be fair, large chunks of the United States at the state level are not fully functioning democracies, and this affects national politics. But we do have different expectations.
SFAW
@Soprano2: Keeping my fingers crossed for you and Mr. Soprano2.
trnc
@Soprano2: Wow! Sending positive vibes your way.
Kay
The two NBC executives who made the decision to hire Ronna McDaniel came from the NYTimes and Politico.
Perfect.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Betty Cracker:
This Wikipedia entry is for the ship that hit the Sunshine Skyway, rather than the bridge itself; it gets to the accident quicker.
At least there wasn’t a bus on the bridge this time.
catclub
@Chris T.:
I would assume they are both Delaware corporations. Everything is.
Barbara
@TBone: Indeed, tell it to Marilyn Moseby, the former DA of Baltimore who stretched the truth to get pandemic related benefits and was duly convicted of federal offenses in the last month. Sums involved were in the 10s of thousands, not millions.
SFAW
@catclub:
Biden’s Deep State goes even deeper than originally imagined.
catclub
@trnc: I think McConnell is dropping out of leadership because fundraising has changed under Trump. If the GOP moneybags are all in on Trump, there is no place for McConnell – who is Minority leader because he is the biggest fundraiser.
Also because he is old and possibly sick.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Soprano2: I’m so sorry; I know this is awful for both of you.
Barbara
@Soprano2: Thinking of you.
trnc
Silver doesn’t get it. Where is his post demanding that DT should drop out? On top of that, after planting the idea that Biden can’t run a “normal” campaign, we get a diatribe about how campaigning in general needs to change.
Kay
@catclub:
The MAGAS – rank and file – really hate McDonnell. They think “the establishment” shackled Trump and kept many of his most vicious and mean spirited ideas from coming to fruition. They’re probably right about that. As bad as Republicans were it will be 10X worse the second round. They’ll know he can’t be stopped this time. What are we going to do? Threaten impeachment? Tell them he’ll be prosecuted maybe sometime in the next decade? They don’t give a shit.
He can’t win. It’s catastrophic if he does.
catclub
@catclub: yes. I checked. both delaware corporations.
Brit in Chicago
@Baud: There will be lawyers.
Geo Wilcox
@Baud: If you watch the video carefully there were two power outages as the ship was approaching the bridge. That may have had something to do with it looking like it lost its steering ability.
Barbara
@Splitting Image: I think Nate aspired to being more than a numbers cruncher and is one of those people who got so used to being the smartest person in the room he never understood the limits of his talent. A lot of people are like that.
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: Being a caregiver is hard, please take care of yourself.
catclub
@trnc: Please note that Silver’s quote was from november, 2023 was pulled by someone looking for click bait and outrage generation. It worked.
I have no idea if Biden’s campaigning in Nov 2023 was conventional.
artem1s
Last week? How does the saying go? Only a dishonest man can get conned? The GOP got conned because at their core they aren’t honest. They knew he’d been scraping off campaign money since 2015. They knew he was getting money from foreign donors since 2015. They figured he’d take the fall and they would still have the power of the WH to run their own grifts. I think Darth Cheney and Karl Rove was doing this back as far as 2000. Last week my ass.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Kay:
That could be a Pitchbot headline. Once again, satire can’t keep up with reality.
NotMax
@pat
When the ship hits the span….
Kay
@catclub:
It’s the serfdom aspect that kills me. How we’ll have to rely on the whims of Trump’s wealthy backers to rein him in. That pleading sound of media and institutionalists when they’re watching these lunatics act like maniacs and just hoping they don’t decide to take the country down. We’ll all be beggars, including the Trump voters. I can’t bear it.
OzarkHillbilly
@Brit in Chicago: The company lawyers are already hard at work to limit their liability.
skerry
@Spanky: While it’s true that the tunnels take most of the traffic north/south, the Key bridge was vital for semi traffic. Semis having to divert west/north around the loop will mess up traffic for everyone.
Kay
@Brit in Chicago:
I looked up the ship’s managers – there’s an owner too but the owner would pay the manager for operations, staffing, repairs, etc. They’re out of Singapore with “a strong safety culture” at their org. Hmmm.
OzarkHillbilly
@NotMax: Ooooooofff….
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone 😊😊😊
Matt McIrvin
@catclub: I think that late last year there was a lot of “where is Biden?” going on because he was doing his job and his reelection campaign hadn’t kicked into high gear yet. I don’t think Biden saw the primary challenges to him as a serious threat, and they weren’t.
SFAW
@skerry:
I read somewhere that a lot of hazmat truck traffic used it, because they’re not allowed in the tunnels.
Soprano2
@Kay: I saw a post on Facebook from a friend who is a TFG supporter. It was about how it was good that the Russians beat the people that were arrested for the attack this week, why don’t we do that to felons we arrest? They can’t wait for TFG to start hurting people they don’t like.
pat
@skerry:
And hazardous loads are not allowed in the tunnel.
trnc
@catclub: Yeah, I’m going with old and sick. He’ll be lucky to get through the rest of the current term without more serious public glitches, so there’s no way he could imagine another 6 year term. When you consider the very real possibility that Biden wins but repubs take the senate, I don’t think MM would turn down that opportunity to continue sticking it to dems if it weren’t for his health.
Soprano2
@Kay: No one will be able to rein him in if he gets elected again.
SFAW
@Soprano2:
Excellent idea, maybe. Let’s start by having police beat TFG supporters, to extract confessions about their insurrection-supporting activity.
Or maybe have leopards do it?
ETA: Not serious of course, but maybe you could suggest that scenario to your friend.
Ken
@NotMax: Boo, hiss. Won’t keep me from stealing it, of course.
Soprano2
@SFAW: They never think that kind of thing will be directed against them.
Another Scott
@Soprano2: It can be hard to keep oldsters juicy enough. ☹️. I’m glad you are able to get some help. Best of luck, and keep us informed.
Rest
Best wishes,
Scott.
trnc
Yes, but Silver responded to it yesterday, so it’s fair to note that he’s still letting the Biden slag hang out there without making a similar demand that DT step aside. In fact, it should be even easier today for him to update that idea, given what we’ve seen from DT in the last 5 months.
trnc
@NotMax: Oh, snap!
Kay
@Soprano2:
They were super excited when they thought Trump was bringing in the military to attack AA protestors in DC. That was sort of the institutional GOP too though, I guess. Remember Tom Cotton wanted to shut down BLM protests by sending in the military to attack them? Authoritarian NUTJOBS.
I don’t think the military will attack us but I guarantee county and city law enforcement will.
kalakal
@Soprano2: Exactly, they always see themselves as wearing the jackboots
JML
@catclub: It doesn’t change the fact that Silver hasn’t produced anything of note in years and has fallen into bog-standard political punditry. As it relates to politics, he had one good idea (poll aggregation to get more reliable/likely results) and since then 538 really hasn’t done much that’s particularly noteworthy and Silver isn’t even there any longer, so how much of his social media is just about him trying to stay relevant? (I’d say it’s a LOT)
Bet he plays more poker these days than trying to build mathematical models to explain political trends…
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
Kay
@trnc:
I used to defend Nate Silver but then Me Too and BLM and Covid happened and, like many white middle aged male pundits and essayists, he broke. These people aren’t resilient. They can’t handle change or challenges. Why is he so bitter? My God, he rode adding up numbers and taking an average for a decade. What does he want? Is he entitled to something he isn’t getting?
Matt McIrvin
@JML: The state-poll aggregation wasn’t even his idea–Sam Wang and Andrew Tannenbaum had been doing versions of it before him, and doing it better.
And it also turned out that the technique’s skill at predicting presidential elections was more a small-number run of luck than an actual inherent property. It just happened that the first several elections the idea was applied to were well-suited to it.
Miss Bianca
@Soprano2: I’m so sorry to hear this. Somehow I missed the news that hubby was back in the hospital. :(
Soprano2
@Miss Bianca: It just happened last night. We’re still waiting for a room.
TBone
@Barbara: grrrrrrrr
Matt McIrvin
@Kay:
Trump had his versions of the “little green men” too, paramilitary forces who are hard to identify and that seem to come out of nowhere–remember the ones in DC during the George Floyd protests who turned out to be Texas prison guards?
artem1s
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
The deep water channels in these ports of entry are marked well too. They are set up so the captains/pilots know exactly where the channel is. If it’s not mechanical failure, it’s negligence. That ship ran right into the middle of pylon. It wasn’t in the channel at all.
evodevo
@Matt McIrvin: yeah…I still remember the video of that woman in the freezing water with all the bystanders yelling advice, until finally one guy jumped in to rescue her when she looked like she was going down the last time…awful…
Matt McIrvin
@evodevo: That was a terrible day–I remember the schools closing early from the ice, but still having a hard time getting home from school, and then hearing about the plane crash. There was a fatal Metro crash on the same day, completely unrelated and it got kind of overshadowed in the local news.
Paul in KY
@Baud: Was the ship blasting its air horns to alert traffic? it’s going slow I assume, so there might have been 30 secs or so from ‘malfunction’ to impact. Just a horrible thing!
Paul in KY
@Soprano2: It’s a bitch, but you just have to be on him about drinking. One good thing might be that if he can’t remember drinking previously, he’ll just think this is 1st one and won’t complain.
Paul in KY
@TBone: Good point.
Miss Bianca
@Soprano2: Oh, no! On top of everything else, the waiting is excruciating. Well, we will do our best to divert you.
Paul in KY
@pat: I wonder if it was some kind of criminal action? Needs to be checked out (as I’m sure it will be).
Paul in KY
@Another Scott: My mother is 98+ and it’s a chore to keep her hydrated. She hates water and drinks tea mostly. We give her juice at all 3 meals. She balks at drinking it from time to time and we have to insist. Gets very tiring.
Paul in KY
@evodevo: That guy was a real hero.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Geo Wilcox: The tide was still going out at that point, too—I checked online tide tables and low tide was around 1:50 AM and the collision around 1:35 AM. If they lost way for some reason they were vulnerable to the currents.
catclub
One good idea is a lot! They said about the same thing about Einstein after general relativity.
Betty Cracker
@a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio): We used to fish under that bridge a lot during the aughties and 2010s. The massive concrete bumpers installed around the piers of the new bridge looked like they could keep any ship off. Maybe all major bridges with lots of ship traffic should have those.
Ramalama
@Kay: It’s almost as if he’s an only child and never had someone close to his age slap him upside the head and call him a dumbass. Not like me and my sibs. Not at all.
Edmund dantes
@TBone: cantilever design. Once the support is gone the cantilever collapses.
evodevo
@Paul in KY: I’m 78 and the same…I don’t like drinking out of a water bottle…I load my glass of water up with ice and a squeeze from a fresh lemon slice…makes it much easier to drink up. Also, I can’t do a lot of water all at once, so I just keep the glass topped up all day.
JML
@catclub: sure, but a) it wasn’t that original (as noted above), and b) he used it to try and set himself up as the only person who actually understood data as it applied to politics and campaigns (while refusing to actually spend any time learning what people actually did on a campaign).
He was around and an important part of data analytics moving into the mainstream in sports and his initial work at 538 was good overall and helpful…but it’s been over 10 years since they’ve been anything more than a mediocre pundit shop, stocked with people who all think they’re the smartest person in the room. It shouldn’t be a surprise that ABC non-renewed his contract last year and moved on.
Uncle Cosmo
I was about to finish a long discourse on the Key Bridge, but my FUCKING COMPUTER ATE IT, so fuckit.
Eyeroller
@catclub: Einstein had more good ideas than relativity (special and general). He technically won the Nobel Prize for explaining the photoelectric effect, and he also had an important paper on Brownian motion.
Nina
There were 7 people working on repaving the bridge. The repaving job has been going on for months, with lane closures at night and on weekends. Two of those people were pulled from the water. One is in a local hospital. The other one ‘refused medical help’. He can’t be OK after surviving a span collapse and even a few minutes in 47 degree water. My husband believes he is an undocumented worker who is afraid to go to the hospital because they might check his papers.
Uncle Cosmo
The Key Bridge (no one here ever calls it anything else)
hashad other occasional issues – in high winds speed limits would be reduced, and in very high winds semis would not even be allowed to traverse it.Old School
@Soprano2: Hopefully the doctors can get everything straightened out and that you can get some sleep.
Queen of Lurkers
@Ramalama: Jon Stewart’s older brother is in finance. I imagine he understands the inner workings of high finance quite well.
Uncle Cosmo
@JML: I think the classic definition of economists
applies even more to statisticians, most of whom can calculate sample sizes and run fancy multivariate tests til the cows come home but have only the barest understanding that
1) Behind every analysis are a whole passle of preconditions that might not even be verifiable (or falsifiable),
2) “Statistical significance” and actual significance are often loosely related at best, and
3) Any analysis may produce results, often not even quantifiable, that imply important real-world consequences for real-life people but cannot be seen when the analyst is too deep into the numbers
In the first session I used to tell my Stat 101 students** something like –
** One section per semester, community college, for a few years to relieve the rolling boredom of my well-paying day job.
stinger
@SiubhanDuinne:
It was supposed to make your eyes look bigger (since they’d be the only visible features, I guess). The eye makeup trends of the time added to that.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Betty Cracker: That sounds like a good idea. I’m sure they’re not cheap, but I’ll bet they’re cheaper than a new bridge that wasn’t in the budget.
worn
@Soprano2: I am so sorry you are having to go through this. About 3 weeks ago my 80 y.o. father had a fall, which ultimately necessitated taking him to the emergency room. It took 13 hours to get him into a real room in the observation ward, 8 of which were spent in what I can only describe as a storage closet repurposed as a place to stash 8 or 9 gurneyed (sp) patients. It was a nice little taste of hell, albeit at one of the better hospitals here.
What we learned as a result of the testing done while at OSHU have thrown mine & my siblings lives into the well of disarray.
Best wishes that you & your husband have a better time of it. Stay strong; it’s can be difficult, especially on a real surfeit of sleep.
catclub
@Eyeroller: really! I never would have guessed.
Note that I wrote AFTER general relativity.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Bingo!
dnfree
@Baud: Yes. Whenever I see an article or comment suggesting that things have to get worse before they can get better (about for instance voting third-party), I generally think it’s a person who doesn’t think things will actually get worse FOR THEM personally. I think most of those people are probably white males.
Paul in KY
@evodevo: My mom doesn’t like water at all. In any form. Think it was from growing up in a place in her childhood where you didn’t drink the tap water.
Great idea about the water you are drinking. Best wishes to you.
Paul in KY
@worn: Best wishes on your father’s recovery and to you and your siblings as you navigate being caretenders. IMO, need all the siblings (in local area) to chip in and physically help.
Matt McIrvin
@Eyeroller: Yes, but most of that was before general relativity, and he spent his late career thinking physics had taken a wrong turn and promoting ideas that didn’t quite pan out.
That said, some of his later collaborations were important, particularly in the 1930s–the “EPR paradox” didn’t overturn quantum mechanics but it did lead to a lot of significant thought about nonlocal correlations and the measurement problem. He also co-wrote one of the earlier major papers on wormholes.
But that’s a common pattern in theoretical physics–it seems to be a young person’s game.
Matt McIrvin
@Uncle Cosmo: There’s also a Francis Scott Key Bridge (“Key Bridge”) in DC, which used to be the most common way my family got downtown, so a lot of this discussion is odd to me for that reason.
Matt McIrvin
@Uncle Cosmo: And if you don’t like numbers you can always become a mathematician.
worn
@Paul in KY: Many thanks, Paul. We are very much in the maelstrom at the moment. Luckily all of my siblings are indeed here, attempting to conquer & divide within the vagaries of the U.S. medical system.
There will be no recovery. We are all internalizing his prognosis right now.
ETA: probably posting into the ether ; demands of my father’s care has my usual dips into BJ happening more sporadically than usual.
Paul in KY
@worn: Sure glad to hear that your siblings are all there and willing to help! Just take it one day at a time.
Ramona
@Paul in KY: My late friend hated drinking water too but she thought I had a brilliant idea when I started to offer her shot glasses of water. The small quantity didn’t intimidate her as much.
Ruckus
@Soprano2:
I’m trying to remember what paperwork the VA needs and it’s been a long enough time for me that I can’t remember. But really if you don’t know their location near you or he is not already a member the info can be found on line. There are phone numbers to call for assistance. If you have his military records that will help. Once in the service is pretty good, I use the VA and I am pretty happy about the care, the people and what they can do for you.
All the best for both of you.
There are a number of vets on BJ, some of us use the VA so do not be afraid to ask, I’ll help guide you as I imagine others will as well.
Best of luck.
Paul in KY
@Ramona: That’s a good idea. Thanks!