Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Somebody needs to explain to DeSantis that nobody needs to do anything to make him look bad.

The Supreme Court is corrupt. Democrats must win in November and force court reform.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Republicans can’t even be trusted with their own money.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Trump’s legal defense is going to be a dumpster fire inside a clown car on a derailing train.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

The gop couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

There is one struggling party in US right now, and it’s not the Democrats.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

Trump makes a mockery of the legal system and cowardly judges just sit back and let him.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. don’t touch it.”

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 786: The Butcher’s Bill for Chernihiv

War for Ukraine Day 786: The Butcher’s Bill for Chernihiv

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Brief housekeeping note: Thank you to everyone for the good thoughts and well wishes. Rosie’s fever had broken by mid evening last night, she ate dinner, and did quite well. When I spoke with the vet this morning she had further improved, her blood work was normal, they had consulted with her oncology vet who is part of the same practice, and I was able to pick her up this afternoon. She inhaled her dinner and is now laying on the bed with her little sister. She’s still a bit wobbly, but the vet says that’s to be expected between the fever and the chemo. I, however, am exhausted, so I’m going to keep tonight’s update on the shorter side as I want to rack out early. Honestly, if she wanted a spa day she just had to ask.

As I’ve been drafting tonight’s update, so for the past hour or so, air raid alerts have been going up over eastern and southern Ukraine. As of 7:02 PM EDT about half of Ukraine is under air raid alert.

Here’s the butcher’s bill from Russia’s attack on Chernihiv:

I know everyone is excited and feeling positive that the foreign aid or nat-sec or military supplemental is going to pass. It is important to remember that because Speaker Johnson has split this into multiple bills, which have significant differences to the Senate bill that has been languishing in the House for several months.

The first, third, fourth, and fifth bullet points are just bad policy.

Even if they were good policy, the simple truth is that whatever passes the House has to go back to the Senate. When that happens it can be filibustered. Everyone is giving Johnson plaudits for suddenly finding a backbone and doing the right thing. I’m a bit more cynical and think that Johnson is doing it this way because he knows that if he sends three separate bills to the Senate that Republican Senators Paul, Vance, Lee, and a number of the other GOP senators will try to kill it through the filibuster. He’s going to jam the Democratic majority Senate and then blame the Democrats when the Republican Senate minority kills it using the filibuster.

Imagine that, who could’ve possibly imagined?

More seriously, the problem right now is that it is unclear that McConnell still has enough control of the Senate GOP minority caucus to get whatever the House sends over through a cloture vote so that the supplementals can get to the simple majority vote and be voted into law. This is by no means a done deal on the House side, let alone the Senate side.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Our Domestic Defense Production Yielded Important Results – Address by the President

18 April 2024 – 20:29

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today’s key takeaways.

First, a conference call with key reports. The Commander-in-Chief reported on the frontline, our operations and results. The Minister of Defense reported on the supply of weapons, equipment and communication with partners. There were important results of our domestic defense production: in particular, we managed to increase the number of Bohdana howitzers we produce monthly to 10. This is a good result. In general, there are positive aspects in arms production. We especially appreciate everything related to the production of drones and shells. I am always grateful to every company and every manufacturer that provides our Defense and Security Forces with everything they need. There were also reports on the regions – on the elimination of the consequences of Russian strikes, and the overall security situation. We discussed the situation in the border communities, including the information field, the access of people to the Ukrainian television signal and the blocking of Russian propaganda. Our own, Ukrainian, technical developments should also help with this. It is worth remembering that Russian propaganda is invariably followed by, at the very least, destabilization and, at worst, an attempted occupation. At all levels, we and our partners must work together to counteract it. And I thank everyone in the world – all leaders, all public figures, all politicians – who take seriously the need to protect people from disinformation and all other Russian destabilizing influences.

Today I had the opportunity to thank Germany: Robert Habeck, Vice Chancellor of the German government, is currently on a visit to Ukraine. We particularly appreciate Germany’s leadership, which helps not only us in Ukraine to protect lives, but also the whole of Europe to preserve the kind of Europe that is capable of being peaceful, capable of being lawful, capable of caring for people. Germany is now among the world leaders in helping our defense. We discussed what exactly is needed to adequately respond to all the security challenges of this year, to what Russian terrorists are preparing for. We discussed with Mr. Habeck the frontline, our needs for air defense, and the corresponding communication with partners – with third countries that can help and with whom our German friends will talk about this. Of course, we discussed cooperation at the level of European institutions and economic challenges. We also pay special attention to co-production projects, to our joint work so that our defense industries can contribute to the strength of our countries and the common security of the entire Europe. We are preparing the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Germany, our special bilateral work, and we agreed to make this format focused, in particular, on the defense industry – on production, on energy – on recovery, on air defense. As is always the case with Germany, there will be a result!

And one more aspect of both our internal and external work. Today I met with representatives of Ukrainian Jewish organizations and the Ukrainian Jewish community before Passover. It is very symbolic that our meeting took place in a Kyiv school: a Ukrainian school where children study Hebrew and Jewish culture, among other things. This is one of the many reflections of how rich Ukraine is in its diversity, in all our communities in our society. I thanked the rabbis who attended the meeting, those who are in Ukraine, those who are with Ukraine, with the people here, those who are helping us. This is extremely important. Of course, we talked about the possibilities of international communication – about ways to tell the world more about Russian aggression and our needs, in particular for air defense. For obvious security reasons, we held today’s meeting in the shelter of this school in Kyiv. And it is important that everyone who really has influence helps us, helps us to protect the sky, our cities, and all the children of Ukraine. I am grateful to everyone who invests their own time, strength, and energy in Ukraine.

Glory to everyone who defends our country, our people, and Ukrainian life! Glory to everyone who achieves results for Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

From The Financial Times:

My friend, a writer, texted last night from his trench to say a gentle goodbye. His unit is expecting an attack any time, but they do not have the heavy artillery they need to repel the assault.

I am thousands of miles away from Ukraine, on a six-city lecture tour across the US, addressing public meetings and briefing members of Congress. But the war stays with us Ukrainians wherever we may travel. Rest is impossible when, back home, the delay in delivering crucial arms is costing the lives of our friends, our relatives, our countrymen.

The $60bn US package has been stalled for months by what, for Americans, is domestic politics; for us Ukrainians, it is a matter of life and death. In my meetings here, I am frequently asked: since Ukraine cannot expect to defeat Russia on the battlefield, shouldn’t it accept a land deal? Won’t more arms just mean more death?

Indeed, Ukraine has seen far too much death — I know, because my colleagues and I see it daily. For the past decade, my organisation has documented war crimes by Russian forces occupying my country. Since the full invasion in February 2022, the scale of crimes has escalated exponentially. With a network of Ukrainian groups, we have documented killings, rape and torture — beatings, peeling off fingernails, genital electric shock. One woman I interviewed had her eye extracted by a spoon. To date, we have documented 68,000 crimes.

Yet this is only the tip of the iceberg, because such crimes are central to both the method and the purpose of the invasion. The Russian position, as the president has made repeatedly clear, is that Ukrainian language and culture, that Ukraine and Ukrainians, do not exist.

A premature deal would be wrong — not least because we tried it already, and it failed. In 2014, Russia seized Crimea and part of the Donbas. Ukraine was not able to respond effectively, and the international response was muted. A ceasefire was then agreed. All Russia did was use the next eight years to prepare forward bases for the next attack. Moscow will only do the same again.

An early deal would also be immoral. You do not make peace by disarming the invaded country. This would be occupation and we know what that would mean.

Russia is now increasing its assaults on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and we expect a major attack this summer. Our capital city, my home, could again be under direct threat.

In the meantime, destabilisation activities are under way against Moldova and other neighbouring countries. Moscow is the centre but Russia’s imperial vision has no defined borders. This nightmare — this endless cataloguing of human pain — will only continue.

The solution is to defeat Russia and this authoritarian ideology. A stand must be made, and Ukrainians are bravely making it. War is horrible. But Ukrainians know what Russia brings, and the clear majority of the population — more than 70 per cent — support continuing the fight “as long as it takes”.

We respect American politics. We know every country has its own priorities and financial issues. We are grateful for the generous support we have received so far from the US, Europe and other countries around the world, both from governments and ordinary citizens. But now we need more help, and we need it soon. Ukraine wants peace more than anyone. But we cannot fight evil with empty hands. Strengthen Ukraine, let us pursue the war as far as we can — our vision is to the internationally recognised 1991 borders — and then we can discuss peace. Our friends in Russian human rights groups tell us the same: the best way to help Russian democracy is to defeat Russian militarism in Ukraine.

This is not a war for land. It is a war for survival. Not just of the Ukrainian people but of the basic values of human rights, of democracy, of liberty. The majority of American people know this and support more aid for Ukraine. The majority of members of Congress agree. Meanwhile, I continue to get text messages from the front every night. Will the US send fresh arms before it is too late?

More at the link.

The US:

CNN has the details:

CIA Director Bill Burns on Thursday warned that unless US sends more military support, Ukraine could “lose” the war against Russia by the end of the year.

His comments mark one of the starkest warnings to date from the Biden administration on the stakes in Ukraine as Congress debates whether to approve a long-delayed aid package to Kyiv.

Just a month ago, Burns had warned in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee that if Congress did not move to authorize additional support — long hampered by conservative opposition in the House of Representatives — “Ukraine is likely to lose ground and probably significant ground in 2024.”

But on Thursday during an appearance at the George W. Bush Center, he warned that Ukraine could be forced to capitulate entirely.

“With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, I think the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024,” Burns said.

“Without supplemental assistance, the picture is a lot more dire,” he continued. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms of a political settlement.”

The warning comes as the Biden administration is trying to seize an unexpected political opportunity on Capitol Hill to push the House to pass the long-stalled aid package. The legislation also includes aid for Israel, and as a result, House Speaker Mike Johnson has been under pressure to move the package after the Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend. In an effort to satisfy divided factions of the GOP, some of whom support and some of whom oppose aid for Ukraine, he has split the legislation into separate bills and the Ukraine aid portion is expected to come up for a vote on Saturday night.

Burns on Thursday did not detail further how he defined “lose,” and one source familiar with Western intelligence noted to CNN that if the package doesn’t pass, officials still believe Russia is unlikely to overrun Ukraine from coast to coast.

But Russia could retake significant additional territory then effectively freeze the battlelines in place in a de facto ceasefire, similar to what happened after Moscow annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014. That would still be deemed “a loss.”

Burns detailed the dire need for basic ammunition that Ukraine faces on the battlefield. He recounted two battalions — 2,000-plus man units — that had “15 artillery rounds per day” and “a grand total of 42 mortar rounds,” respectively.

“They were overwhelmed, and it wasn’t for lack of bravery or determination on their part, and my worry is that we’re going to see more Avdiivkas in the future without supplemental assistance,” Burns said, referring to a Ukrainian city recently lost to Russian advances.

Ukraine’s shortage of ammunition and military equipment resulting from the US and its allies’ struggle to resupply the country’s military has had an increasingly dire effect on the battlefield, CNN has previously reported.

Congresswoman Taylor Green has more thoughts.

 

Just to be clear, Israel is developing a ground based air defense laser system called the Iron Beam. My guess is Greene got briefed on it, didn’t understand it, and that’s the basis for her Israel aid and space laser mashup. Especially as we already know she’s got Jewish space lasers on the brain.

But wait, there’s more!

That woman just ain’t right!

Poland:

⚡️ Polish, Ukrainian authorities expose Pole who allegedly offered to assassinate Zelensky for Russia.

A joint operation by Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement agencies led to the detention of a Polish citizen who allegedly offered to Russia to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on April 18.

Read more: https://kyivindependent.com/polish-ukrainian-authorities-detain-pole-who-allegedly-offered-to-assassinate-zelensky-for-russia/

📷 Ukraine’s Presidential Office

From The Kyiv Independent:

A joint operation by Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement agencies led to the detention of a Polish citizen who allegedly offered to Russia to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on April 18.

On his own initiative, the suspect meant to spy on the security of the Rzeszow airport in Poland, with the intention of helping Russian intelligence services plan a potential assassination of Zelensky during the latter’s visit to Poland, the SBU said.

The officials did not specify whether Moscow had actually received the suspect’s offer or what the response was.

Before the detention, the SBU and Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office notified Warsaw about a possible assassination attempt and provided their Polish counterparts with key evidence.

The Polish authorities have detained the suspect and charged him with working for foreign intelligence services. The investigation is ongoing.

“This case is yet another proof that Russia is a threat not only to Ukraine and Ukrainians but also to the entire free world,” Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin said.

“The Kremlin’s criminal regime is constantly trying to undermine European and global security.”

Slovakia:

The Czech Republic:

Germany:

Speaking of threats, the information warfare built into Russian military doctrine continues to give Putin a veto in the US’s and NATO’s deliberations.

A good overview of how Putin’s threats of “red lines” undermine support for Ukraine and play right into Putin’s hands in the @AtlanticCouncil

“The West’s emphasis on escalation management has prolonged the war in Ukraine, allowing Russia to overcome initial setbacks and regain the initiative. It has prevented the Ukrainian military from building on the momentum of late 2022, and has turned a dynamic war of movement into an attritional fight that heavily favors Russia. By allowing themselves to be intimidated by the threat of Russian escalation, Western leaders have granted Putin an effective veto over various categories of military aid for Ukraine. This lack of Western resolve has inevitably emboldened the Russian dictator.

Policymakers in Europe and the US must now decide whether they wish to continue with this losing strategy or finally commit to a Ukrainian victory. It is still not too late to adopt a more sensible military strategy, but the clock is ticking. Unless Ukraine is given the tools to defeat Russia on the battlefield, Putin will secure an historic victory that will transform the international security climate. If that happens, today’s emphasis on avoiding escalation will come to be seen as the biggest geopolitical blunder since the appeasement policies of the 1930s.”

Link to full article: https://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/western-fear-of-escalation-will-hand-putin-an-historic-victory-in-ukraine/

From The Atlantic Council:

Millions of Ukrainians watched with mixed emotions over the weekend as a coalition of countries came together to protect Israeli airspace from Iranian bombardment. Ukraine’s reaction was hardly surprising. After all, this impressive display of international air defense efficiency was exactly what the Ukrainians themselves have been pleading for ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of their country began in February 2022.

In the aftermath of the operation to defend Israel, Western officials moved quickly to reject any direct comparisons with Ukraine. “Different conflicts, different airspace, different threat picture,” commented US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron was even more explicit, stating that the use of British jets to shoot down Russian drones in Ukraine would lead to a “dangerous escalation” in the war.

For Ukrainian audiences, Cameron’s anti-escalation argument was all too familiar. For the past two years, Ukraine’s Western partners have sought to strike a delicate balance between aiding the country’s self-defense and avoiding anything that could lead to a wider European war. This overriding fear of escalation has shaped the Western response to Russia’s invasion, and has been masterfully exploited by Putin to restrict military support for Ukraine.

On the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion, fear of escalation was already deterring Western leaders from delivering weapons to Ukraine. Once the attack had begun, it took precious months for the Biden administration to send artillery and HIMARS missile systems. Almost an entire year had passed before Western partners finally agreed on plans to deliver a relatively small number of modern tanks.

This pattern of delays and half-measures shows no signs of changing. With the Russian invasion now well into its third year, Ukraine is still waiting to receive the first batch of F16 fighter jets. Meanwhile, officials in Kyiv are desperately calling on partners to provide them with long-range missiles and air defense systems.

The West’s preoccupation with avoiding escalation at all costs goes against basic military doctrine and has been instrumental in preventing greater Ukrainian battlefield success. When Putin’s invasion force was at its weakest in 2022, Ukraine was denied the support it needed to break through Russia’s vulnerable defensive lines in the south. By the time Kyiv’s partners had agreed to create the necessary offensive force, it was too late; Moscow had mobilized an additional 300,000 troops and fortified the front lines of the war.

Throughout the invasion, Russia has consistently fed Western fears of escalation through a mixture of bellicose statements, back channel signalling, and clever influence operations. The Kremlin’s most effective intimidation tactic has been nuclear blackmail. In late 2022, for example, US intercepts began picking up vague but alarming “chatter” about Russian preparations for the use of nuclear weapons.

Many believe this was a deliberate ploy to boost the credibility of Putin’s public nuclear saber-rattling. It appears to have worked. The intel led to heated debate in the White House and nuclear wargaming in the Pentagon, with Biden administration officials engaging in renewed diplomatic outreach to Moscow. Crucially, concerns over a possible Russian nuclear response dampened Western enthusiasm to press home Ukraine’s advantage at a time when Putin’s army was retreating in disarray.

In addition to blunting Ukraine’s offensive capabilities, the West’s desire to avoid escalation is undermining Kyiv’s ability to defend itself. For the past two years, Ukraine has been blocked from using Western weapons against targets inside Russia. In recent weeks, US officials have even objected to Ukraine using its own weapons to attack Russian refineries.

These artificial restrictions have created an unprecedented situation that aggravates the existing imbalance of forces between Russia and Ukraine. While Russia is able to bomb Ukrainian infrastructure at will, Ukrainian commanders are severely limited in their ability to target the air bases, production facilities, and logistical hubs inside Russia that are being used to attack Ukraine.

The West’s emphasis on escalation management has prolonged the war in Ukraine, allowing Russia to overcome initial setbacks and regain the initiative. It has prevented the Ukrainian military from building on the momentum of late 2022, and has turned a dynamic war of movement into an attritional fight that heavily favors Russia. By allowing themselves to be intimidated by the threat of Russian escalation, Western leaders have granted Putin an effective veto over various categories of military aid for Ukraine. This lack of Western resolve has inevitably emboldened the Russian dictator.

Policymakers in Europe and the US must now decide whether they wish to continue with this losing strategy or finally commit to a Ukrainian victory. It is still not too late to adopt a more sensible military strategy, but the clock is ticking. Unless Ukraine is given the tools to defeat Russia on the battlefield, Putin will secure an historic victory that will transform the international security climate. If that happens, today’s emphasis on avoiding escalation will come to be seen as the biggest geopolitical blunder since the appeasement policies of the 1930s.

Mykola Bielieskov is a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a senior analyst at Ukrainian NGO “Come Back Alive.” The views expressed in this article are the author’s personal position and do not reflect the opinions or views of NISS or Come Back Alive.

Illia Ponomarenko reads the Starlink Snowflake for the filth he is:

This is seriously a new level of being a douchebag.

– You directly undermine Ukraine’s defense effort by turning Starlinks off for the Ukrainian military right in the middle of important operations and letting the Russian military use it despite U.S. sanctions
– You spread the most idiotic “nuclear war” takes whispered to you in the ear by the Russian ambassador in the U.S. and even Putin himself
– You give voice and listen to the most insane conspiracy theorists talking about “proxy war”, “biolabs”, “deep state”, and “money laundering”, as well as blowhard demagogues and media con artists openly praising Putin and his regime
– You use your multimillion-stong global audience to directly propagate the Ukrainian surrender to Russia’s war of aggression and publicly ridicule Ukraine’s calls for international defense aid in its war against one of the world’s largest military powers
– You directly undermined U.S. aid to Ukraine and publicly called for “killing” a long-belated aid at the U.S. Congress despite Ukraine running critically low on air defense and munitions because you and your arrogant yes-men had decided that “Putin just can’t lose”

And when the situation deteriorates, particularly due to months-long delays in the most essential and urgent defense aid, this shameless douche says “I did predict it” (while again completely ignoring the fact that POLITICO makes it perfectly clear that Ukraine is ‘heading for defeat’ due to the West’s failure to send weapons to Kyiv).

No, Elmo, you did not ‘predict’ anything.

You precipitated this.

This war started with Ukrainians praising you as the free world’s techno hero and naming streets after you.

Now you have degraded yourself to being one of Russia’s key useful idiots amid the most terrible and the largest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler.

Keep listening to the likes of Ian Miles Cheong and David Sacks and dive deeper into your delusions and absolute moral bankruptcy.

We in Ukriane have seen our share of smartasses giving us between 48 and 72 hours two years ago.

In this war, we’ve been through so many impossible things that you can’t even imagine, let alone “predict”.

We will overcome this too — and will get the aid, will survive as an independent nation and a democracy, and will bring peace back to Europe by derailing Russian aggression.

Speaking of the Starlink Snowflake:

Kyiv:

From The Washington Post:

KYIV — Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov’s glowering face is barely visible in the half-light of his office. He likes to work in the dark, as befits the chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, the GUR. Behind him in the gray gloom, you can see a painting of a giant owl, the symbol of his service, savagely devouring a bat that is the motif of its Russian counterpart.

Budanov is the dark prince of the Ukraine war. His drop-dead stare has become an icon for Ukrainians — a symbol of bravery and defiance in this third year of conflict with Russia. Ukraine’s NV news outlet calls him the man “without a smile.” A meme that circulates on the internet shows nine identical pictures of his scowling face, labeled “happy,” “angry,” “troubled,” “excited” and so on.

Budanov spoke with me for 90 minutes last month in his forbidding office on what Ukrainians call “the Island,” a derelict string of buildings on a peninsula on the Dnieper River. He was, as always, the voice of resistance — promising to take the fight into Russia with drones and special operations, confirming reports that he’s battling with Wagner mercenaries in Africa and scoffing at a Korea-style negotiated settlement.

With the House of Representatives nearing a final vote on additional military aid to Ukraine, Budanov delivered a clear, emphatic message to the United States: “You should keep helping us, and you should, at last, deliver the assistance we need. We will have a common victory together.”

War always has an element of theater, and Budanov might be this conflict’s most colorful character. He’s just 38, and he’s famously courageous in battle. He fought behind Russian lines between 2014 and 2016 in Donbas and was injured three times, including taking shrapnel in his heart, neck and back. In 2016, he led a raid that killed a lieutenant general from Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB.

There’s a pile of armor and a .50-caliber machine gun heaped next to his desk, and they’re not for show. Budanov travels regularly to the front lines in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, “everywhere,” he said. “Sometimes it’s necessary for me to be with my people to motivate them. I’m not taking excuses for why someone can’t do something. That’s why the task will always be accomplished.”

Budanov predicted that Russia will launch a big offensive starting in June to try to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk, the two provinces known as the Donbas region, which Russia has claimed but doesn’t control. The Russians will then focus on the November elections in the United States and the aftermath. “Until the inauguration of your president, they will try to get as much as possible of the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk,” perhaps hoping that a reelected President Donald Trump can ratify their gains.

To counter the Russians, Budanov plans more cross-border attacks by the “Russian volunteers” who operate inside Russia with support from his service, along with more drone attacks. He explained: “We’ve offered a plan aimed at reduction of Russian potential. It encompasses a lot of aspects, like the military industry … critical military targets, their airfields, their command-and-control posts.”

The goal is to show that President Vladimir Putin cannot “protect the population from the war getting into Russia,” he explained. “When you’re sitting, say, in St. Petersburg, and you’re seeing the war only on TV, you will always be supportive. … But people start to get nervous when some facility [is attacked] near their house.”

Budanov scrolled his phone for images from a Telegram channel that show Russian civilians in the town of Belgorod surveying damage to local buildings. The bombs that had caused most of the destruction were Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles shot at Ukrainian drones, he said, rather than the drones themselves, but the traumatizing effect on the population was the same.

“In reality, the damage done by those [antiaircraft] missiles is a lot higher than the damage that would potentially be done by a drone,” he said.

When I asked if Ukrainian attacks inside Russia would continue, Budanov offered a rare trace of a smile. “I hope so,” he said. A cartoon circulating on the internet shows Putin meeting Budanov in a park and asking if his dog bites. Budanov answers no, and Putin pets the animal. The dog takes a gun and shoots Putin dead.

Budanov’s celebrity in Ukraine stems partly from the fact that he was the only senior leader to warn unequivocally that the Russians were coming before they invaded on Feb. 24, 2022. He led his special forces at Hostomel airport in the early days of the war to help repel a Russian landing there that nearly led to the capture of Kyiv.

The Russians have tried to assassinate Budanov at least 10 times, according to Ukraine’s count, including at least two missile strikes on his headquarters at the Island. A Moscow court issued a warrant for his arrest last year for allegedly plotting to destroy the Kerch Strait bridge. His wife, Marianna, was poisoned by heavy metals, according to Ukrainian reports last year.

Budanov doesn’t appear fazed. If anything, he seems to relish the danger. Some friends worry that he can be reckless. “Kyrylo has succeeded in so many risks, he doesn’t have good risk assessment,” one told me.

As special forces chief, Budanov is always looking for new ways to cause trouble for Putin and his forces. I asked him about rumors that some of his GUR operatives are fighting in Africa against mercenaries of the Wagner militia. “We conduct such operations aimed at reducing Russian military potential, anywhere where it’s possible,” he said. “Why should Africa be an exception?”

For all his panache, Budanov has a clear-eyed assessment of Putin and Russia. “He became a victim of his own propaganda,” Budanov said. “They overheated their society … saying that they’re the most mighty and all-powerful in the world, and he started believing that himself. But it turned out their military is not as powerful as they thought.”

Putin made a “strategic mistake” in launching the war, he said. “But Russians recover fast, and that’s a fact that you should keep in mind. They have proved that dozens of times. We should not underestimate this characteristic.” Putin’s war was supported by over 70 percent of Russians, he said.

How will this war end? Budanov was wary about making predictions. He said he “wouldn’t mind” an eventual breakup of Russia into small pieces. But he cautioned: “In Russian dreams, they have occupied all of Ukraine, and in our dreams, we have a victory parade … into Moscow.” In other words, neither outcome is likely.

“This war will be ongoing while this regime remains in place in Russia,” he said. “Under the next regime, it might change or not, but there will be a window of opportunity.” When I asked about a “Korea solution” through negotiations, he bristled and asked if I wanted Ukraine to become North Korea.

Near the end of our conversation, I asked Budanov if he was worried that if Trump were elected, he might try to impose a settlement. His answer surprised me, but perhaps it underlined what a canny intelligence operator he is. He’s already recruiting a potential asset.

“I have a huge respect for the personality of Trump,” Budanov said. He noted that the former president had attended a military academy, and he lauded his tenacity. “There have been nine instances in his life when he went to the top, fell to the very bottom of life, and went back again.” But as for any Trump peace plan, he said: “Even a person like him won’t be able to resolve this issue in one day.”

Dzhankoi, Russian occupied Crimea:

On April 17, 2024, as a result of a successful operation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the military airfield in Dzhankoi in Crimea, the following russian targets were destroyed or critically damaged:
● 4x S-400 air defense missile launchers
● 3x radar detection systems
● Air defense command-and-control center
● “Fundament-M” airspace surveillance equipment

Great work done!
Glory to Ukraine!

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

Odesa Oblast:

Kharkiv:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

52Comments

  2. 2.

    Eolirin

    One thing to note, from what I’ve read on it that loan thing is set up so that the President can unilaterally forgive it, and Congress would need to override a veto to stop that from happening, meaning Ukraine will never have to pay it back. That part at least is pure theater and not a meaningful policy change.

  8. 8.

    Freemark

    If this is a ‘short’ update then Manute Bol was a short basketball player.

    I’m glad Rosie is doing better. Best thoughts for her continuing recovery.

  9. 9.

    Freemark

    @Eolirin: The whole frickin world will have worse problems than that debt. Besides Ukraine could just declare bankruptcy like Trump’s businesses.

  10. 10.

    japa21

    First: Great news on Rosie

    Second:  Thank you for your yeoman’s work

    Third: Fuck any Russian red lines.

    Am I willing to risk WWIII for Ukraine?  Yes I am.  Are most people?  No, they are not.

    Do I really think Putin means any of his threats? No, I don’t.

  12. 12.

    Nukular Biskits

    Adam, I know that Polish farmers (?) have blocked shipments to/from Ukraine for some time now.

    I guess I missed it but what is their justification/reason for this?

  13. 13.

    sab

    @Nukular Biskits: Ukraine grain shipments supposedly flooding their market, depressing their prices, although none of that grain is actually being offloaded in Europe. The Polish farmers just think it is, probably due to Russian propaganda.

  14. 14.

    topclimber

    Twenty-two Republicans voted for the original aid package.

    I think at least 10 of those will vote for cloture, if not for the new package itself.

    There will likely be delays of a few days while dicks like Rand Paul and Mike Lee dick around, denying unanimous consent. But look to Sen. Schumer to keep the Senate in session long hours so that this and other delaying tactics fail and this deal FINALLY gets done.

  15. 15.

    Martin

    Will note, the aid package passing will be great. But that’s mostly backfilling what should have been provided 6 months ago. We’re going to wind up right back where we started almost immediately.

    It helps, but it’s not a solution.

  17. 17.

    japa21

    @Martin: I would like to believe that, once they have shown the willingness, it would be hard for them to back down on future needs.  Emphasis on “like to believe”.

  18. 18.

    Martin

    @japa21:

    Am I willing to risk WWIII for Ukraine?  Yes I am.  Are most people?  No, they are not.

    The lesson from WWII was that not containing these powers early on is what lead to it being a global war. Military aid early on might have mitigated that.

    It’s better for the US for Ukraine to fight this than to lose and have NATO have to fight this.

  19. 19.

    hrprogressive

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
     

    #1 – I know you continually frame it this way, but the general public won’t unless/until it turns kinetic on a scale similar to the prior two, pre-internet World Wars. If it ever got to this point (and obviously we hope it doesn’t) would you call that…something different? Or just say “Hey WWIII went from behind the scenes to front and center?”

    #2 – Possibly needs a brand new post on another night, but – And I don’t want to offer 500 caveats because the big caveat is obviously “the devil’s in the details”, but – Assuming the Congress actually passes a bill that provides legitimate lethal and defensive aid to Ukraine – not “on paper only” or anything like that – do you think it would “matter”? I know you’re not the hopium guy and I don’t expect you to start now, but, like. Materially. If it happens, and it happens reasonably quickly…is it gonna even matter? Or are we too far past that point?

    Hope the furry one continues to feel better!

  20. 20.

    sab

    I wish we could prove that JD Vance is on Russia’s payroll, as I am sure he is, because otherwise his stance on Ukraine aid makes no sense electorally. Except that he did win last time when his stance was already known.

  21. 21.

    Martin

    @japa21: It’s possible breaking the back of the social media caucus in the GOP will get us there. But there are scant few things that the GOP doesn’t hostage take over – including things they support.

  22. 22.

    TBone

    It is time to get serious about boycotting and canceling fElon Skum.  I’m gonna really try not to amplify stuff directly from xitter and I hope his other ventures lead to more serious lawsuits and, ultimately, criminal prosecution.  He should be shot for shit and hung for stinkin’.  Nobody’s opinions, jokes, or news is worth putting up with that fucking guy.

  23. 23.

    Adam L Silverman

    @hrprogressive: I would expect that we’ve got a lot of stuff pre-positioned to be delivered in the EUCOM area of responsibility. That would be the strategically competent thing to do. So it’s anyone’s guess if the Biden administration has actually done that.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @sab: He’s not on Russia’s payroll. He’s on Peter Thiel’s payroll. Every dollar Vance has made as an adult aside from what he earned in the Marine Reserves he earned from working for Thiel.

  27. 27.

    Jay

    Thank you, Adam.

    I am glad the Rosie is home, had a good meal, and is sleeping comfortably.

  28. 28.

    Jay

    Germany arrests two dual nationals on suspicion of plotting attacks for Russia
    Men accused of working with secret service to target sites, including US military bases, to undermine Ukraine support

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/18/germany-arrests-two-for-alleged-plot-to-attack-military-bases-on-behalf-of-russia

    BTW, the Polish airport that was going to be used for a hit on Zelenskyy, is run by the US Military and security is provided by the US Military, so it is quite likely, had an assassination attempt taken place, US Soldiers would have died.

  29. 29.

    Gretchen

    @sab: It doesn’t even make sense electorally for Vance himself. There are lots of Ukrainians in the Cleveland area.

  31. 31.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Adam L Silverman: You are likely correct that the stuff is standing by for shipment in anticipation of authorization.

    But there are two problems, in my view: one is that the pipeline only has so much capacity, with bottlenecks in series that go beyond mere transmission to Ukraine. The logistics folks—both NATO and Ukrainian—are going to take mental health damage from lack of sleep.

    The other issue is that 6 months ago, we were arming Ukraine for offensive warfare. Now, the top priority is defense. So the pipeline itself needs rejiggering. All those armored obstacle breaching and mine-clearing vehicles, APCs etc. are second priority now. Mine-laying is the order of the day, as well as concrete and rebar, razor wire, trench diggers, wired comms, etc. Artillery will continue to be a priority, but at least there the requirements for the Russians on offense will abate those for the UA on defense—the Russian advantage in shells and barrels should not be enough to allow them to power through prepared defenses, if those can get set in time.

    And I’m sure that there are many other annoying complications that make the reopening of the pipeline more difficult than just flipping a switch. None of this restructuring is unmanageable. It just consumes valuable time, the scarcest resource of all.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @Gretchen:

    @sab:

    As we have seen in real time with Felon Scum, other “Masters of the Universe” and the Minions they surround themselves with for regular rim jobs,

    they are all “Bubble Boys, (and Girls)”.

    When challenged, they double down on their bubble feeds, block the challenger and dive even deeper into the festering swamps of misinformation and propaganda, and start consuming ever more vile shit.

  33. 33.

    hrprogressive

    @Adam L Silverman:

     

    If I may rephrase a little bit, my question was “Does it actually give Ukraine a materially better chance of successfully defeating Russia, or is it, at this point in time, too far gone to matter?”

  34. 34.

    YY_Sima Qian

    RuAF Su-25 attack aircraft are operating with near impunity along the front lines again, a clear indication that Ukraine is running critically short of anti-air munitions, whether it is Western Stingers/Starstreaks/IRIS-Ts, or Soviet era Buks/Osas, or even cannon rounds for the Gepards. At least Russia’s ability to take advantage of air superiority is rather limited.

  35. 35.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    a big tactical issue for Ukraine, is that ruZZia was given the breathing room to develop FAB based glide bombs, 500kg to 1500kg, 90km range from release point and at the least, a 30m CEP, and are using them.

    No trench line or concrete reinforced bunker can withstand that.

    Even F-16’s with AIM-120’s cannot reach out and touch the launch aircraft with out entering ruZZian controlled airspace.

  36. 36.

    Jay

    Jay in Kyiv
    @JayinKyiv
    4h
    The amendment that Marjorie Taylor Greene just proposed to sabotage the Ukraine bill is something that is such a nuanced Russian disinfo narrative that it could have only come directly from her Russian handlers.

    The notion that Hungarians are being persecuted in Ukraine is insane BUT it’s being pushed by both Orban (who was promised a piece of Ukraine by Putin) and Russian disinfo machine. For an American to suggest this really confirms she is being handled.

    https://nitter.poast.org/JayinKyiv/status/1781069691005419854#m

  37. 37.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: A year of Ukraine on the defensive will allow Russia time to further improve these weapons systems, such as improving the range or the CEP. It also allow Russia time to further consolidate its control over the occupied territories, improve its defenses in depth. If and when Ukraine tries to go on the offensive again in 2025 or later, it may be even tougher than in 2023. Ukraine will need much more of everything.

  38. 38.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Perhaps G&T can help answer, but what is Ukraine’s plans for additional mobilization? Has the political impasse been broken. Ukraine needs more than just material, it needs more troops, too, to hold the defenses.

  39. 39.

    Carlo Graziani

    @hrprogressive: The war has changed. Six months ago, it was possible to imagine Ukraine pursuing a large-scale offensive into 2024. Since then, the Russians have regained the initiative, and are conducting offensive operations in their inimitable, ponderous, wasteful way.

    It is possible that this transition would have occurred anyway, irrespective of the Republican embargo. We can see now that the Ukrainian offensive was always under-resourced given the challenge created by the Surovikhin line, so that it had clearly culminated by late summer 2023. Nonetheless, the embargo created a caesura between before and after, which compels us to think about the progress of the war in different terms than we did before.

    This may not be entirely a bad thing. There are very considerable advantages to fighting a defensive war, especially in a war of attrition, and especially if the party on defense is adequately resourced. One way that 2024 could play out is with Russian exhaustion following massive waves of unavailing assaults on strongly-entrenched forces capable of destroying anything that approaches.

    A scenario, not a prediction. I’m just saying that it’s a new war. We need to think new thoughts about it.

  40. 40.

    Gin & Tonic

    *Every* amendment proposed by MTG is directly out of russian info ops. She actually has submitted an amendment talking about language rights of Hungarians in Transcarpathia. I will willingly wager next month’s pension check that MTG could not find Transcarpathia on a map, let alone speak with any authority about the status of the Hungarian language there.

  44. 44.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: Thanks! I had missed it. It seems the new legislations makes substantial new mobilizations more feasible, but new mobilizations has not yet started?

  47. 47.

    bookworm1398

    On the new mobilization, a feature that puzzled me if that Ukrainian men living abroad will also be drafted? How could that possibly be enforced?

  48. 48.

    Another Scott

    Manu Raju
    @mkraju
    49m

    9-3, Dems on House Rules Committee join six Republicans to send rule — governing parameters of the floor debate on the foreign aid package — to the floor. Three Rs on the committee: Ralph Norman, Chip Roy and Thomas Massie voted against it.

    Typically rules go along straight party lines. This Congress has changed that. Amid major GOP divisions, Dems supplying the votes to get aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan through the House.

    The rule allows for the separate aid bills to be tied together as one package (worth $95B) that will be sent to the Senate

    Manu Raju
    @mkraju
    1h

    GOP reaction to Mike Johnson’s assessment that he didn’t have the votes to tie Ukraine aid to border security.

    Eli Crane: “I think we have an integrity problem when we tell the American people that the border is the hill to die on — border, border, border — and then we see more of the status quo.”

    Malliotakis: “The speaker’s been giving us lip service since he became the speaker saying that we were going to combine Ukraine and the border. … I don’t believe that the speaker couldn’t extract something.”

    Apr 19, 2024 · 3:36 AM UTC

    We’ll see what happens, especially after tonight’s events.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  51. 51.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Very moving reporting from the NYT that gets at the immense scale of tragedy & loss in Gaza over the past 6.5 months, via the experiences of the graduating class in dentistry at the al-Azhar University. It is pretty rare for Western MSMs to humanize Palestinians in such a way, though such humanization is common for Israeli or Western victims of terrorism (or war, or natural disasters).

    They Graduated Into Gaza’s War. What Happened to Them?
    By Emma Bubola and Lauren Leatherby
    April 18, 2024

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