Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

He really is that stupid.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Come on, man.

The lights are all blinking red.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

The jury literally has a bell they can ring to force Trump to show up on command. Greatest thing ever!

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

Let there be snark.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 809: Kharkiv & Sumy Are Still Under the Gun!

War for Ukraine Day 809: Kharkiv & Sumy Are Still Under the Gun!

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

As I start tonight’s update – 5:45 PM EDT – the only air raid alerts up are over Luhansk, Crimea, and Donetsk. This was not the case as recently as two hours ago. It is now 6:25 PM EDT and air raid alerts have gone up over all of eastern Ukraine.

Air raid alert map of Ukraine as of 6:25 PM EDT on 12 MAY 2024. All of the eastern portion of Ukraine, plus Crimea, are under air raid alert.

And now, at 6:30 EDT PM, they are all down except for Luhansk and Crimea, where they are always up.

More on Kharkiv and Sumy after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Special Attention Is Paid to the Kharkiv Region; Fierce Defensive Battles Are Ongoing on a Large Part of Our Border Area – Address by the President

12 May 2024 – 19:31

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, the key issue is, of course, the frontline and our counteraction to Russian operations. Throughout the day, there have been reports from the Commander-in-Chief, intelligence, Interior Minister.

Special attention is paid to the Kharkiv region. Defensive battles are ongoing, fierce battles – on a large part of our border area. There are villages that have actually turned from a gray zone into a combat zone – and the occupier is trying to gain a foothold in some of them, or simply use some of them for further advancement. I’d like to thank our warriors who are holding their positions and destroying the occupier. Artillery, drones – everyone who is involved and is involved effectively – I am grateful to you. Our task is obvious – we need to inflict as many losses as possible on the occupier. In particular, on the outskirts of Vovchansk, the situation is extremely difficult – the city is under constant Russian fire, and our military is carrying out counterattacks, helping local residents. And it is very important that everyone who is directly there, in the Kharkiv region, shows maximum efficiency now. In the Armed Forces, in the security forces, in local authorities, in communities. Everything depends on what you are capable of in a war – whether you can withstand the attacks and hold your ground so that everyone else can do the same. The key thing is our resilience and Ukrainian results in battles.

We are also paying constant attention to other areas of combat operations, including the Donetsk sector, where the situation is no less intense. In fact, the idea behind the attacks in the Kharkiv region is to spread our forces thin and undermine the moral and motivational basis of the Ukrainians’ ability to defend themselves. The Pokrovsk direction is the most difficult, despite everything. Just this day alone, there have been thirty combat engagements in the Pokrovsk direction already. The Lyman and Vremivka directions are also tough. Kramatorsk. Kupyansk. Our warriors are adequately retaliating against the occupier and doing everything possible, often impossible, to deter Russian assaults and respond – respond to the occupier with fire.

And one more thing. Russian PSYOPs are always the energy for Russian ground operations. The occupier feeds on lies and the fear that follows the lies. Defensive battles are never easy. And they always become more difficult when the enemy manages to use fear. So now it is safer not to be led by emotions, not to chase the headline, to double-check every news report, to look for information, not emotions or rumors, and to trust the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Our warriors know what to do. And we are working with our partners, including our domestic Ukrainian arms production facilities, to ensure that our warriors have what they need to act. I am grateful to everyone who helps! I thank everyone who fights for Ukraine and fights steadfastly! Thank you to everyone who gives results to Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Washington, DC:

⚡️Blinken: No doubt there has been ‘cost in months-long delay’ of aid for Ukraine.

Without a doubt, there has been a cost in the “months-long delay in getting the supplementary budget request approved and the equipment sent out to Ukraine,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS News on May 12.

https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-no-doubt-theres-been-a-cost-in-months-long-delay-in-aid-for-ukraine/

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Without a doubt, there has been a cost in the “months-long delay in getting the supplementary budget request approved and the equipment sent out to Ukraine,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS News on May 12.

Despite the setbacks, Blinken also said he believes Ukraine can “hold the line in the east,” as Russian troops launched a new offensive operation targeting Kharkiv Oblast earlier on May 10.

“I’m convinced Ukraine can effectively hold the line in the east,” Blinken said during a televised interview. “It can continue to press the advantages achieved for itself in the Black Sea, where it’s getting as much out through the Black Sea, feeding the world as it did before the Russian re-invasion of Ukraine, as well as holding Russian forces at risk, including in Crimea to make it more difficult for them to continue this aggression.”

“We’ve been providing the systems to do that, but it’s a challenging moment,” he added.

After six months of political infighting and delays, the U.S. recently passed a long-awaited $61 billion aid package, with much of it covering military aid. The following day, the Pentagon announced that it was ready to move forward with sending $1 billion worth of weapons to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles.

But during the six-month break in funding, Ukraine lost the key front-line city of Avdiivka in February amid a severe ammunition shortage.

Blinken says they are “doing everything we can to rush this assistance” to Ukraine, adding that Europe is doing the same.

“Just this week, we did a drawdown of about $400 million in defense equipment for Ukraine coming from the supplemental,” he said.

Earlier on May 10, U.S. President Joe Biden authorized a $400 million defense aid package for Ukraine, namely ammunition for Patriot and NASAMS air defenses, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, HIMARS systems and ammunition, 155 mm and 105 mm artillery shells, and equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukrainian systems.

“We are not going anywhere, and neither are more than some 50 countries that are supporting Ukraine. That will continue, and if Putin thinks he can outlast Ukraine, outlast its supporters. He’s wrong,” Blinken said.

First, Blinken just cooked the NSM 20 report to Congress on Israel’s behalf/in Israel’s favor, letting Israel and IDF units off the hook for Leahy Amendment violations so that the US can continue to sell and send them weapons. So I would ask for a second opinion if he told me that water was wet.

Second, this is just bullshit:

“We are not going anywhere, and neither are more than some 50 countries that are supporting Ukraine. That will continue, and if Putin thinks he can outlast Ukraine, outlast its supporters. He’s wrong,” Blinken said.

The supplemental aid package that just passed is the last one Ukraine is going to get from the US for a very long time, if at all. The hope is that all the material, equipment, weapons, and munitions in it will last eighteen months, but the more realistic estimate is that it will get the Ukrainians through the next six months. The Biden administration barely got the most recent supplemental through the GOP majority House and had trouble because of the GOP minority in the Senate. If Biden gets reelected and the Democrats hold the Senate and retake the House, all three of which are big ifs, then Ukraine might get more aid. Ukraine cannot count on any of those things happening. They need to develop policies and strategies to be able to overcome either American abandonment if Biden wins reelection, but the Democrats lose one or both chambers of Congress. The also need to develop policies and strategies to be able to overcome the United States entering the war on the side of Russia if Trump is reelected. The failure to do either would be strategic malpractice.

Georgia:

Kharkiv Oblast:

From The Kyiv Independent:

VOVCHANSK, KHARKIV OBLAST – The glide bombs arrive in groups of three.

Their flight can be heard from far away, but only in the last second before impact is it clear where it will hit.

The explosions, orders of magnitude more powerful than regular artillery shells, shake the ground where the two police officers lay prone.

Getting back on his feet, Oleksii Kharkivskyi, the boisterous young police chief of the border town of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, climbed onto a pile of rubble and pointed to the plumes of dark grey smoke rising in the distance, the nearest less than half a kilometer away.

“I see one, I see a second, and the third is just behind this house,” he said.

“If you don’t want to die, I suggest you gather your things and follow me.”

Vovchansk is ground zero of Russia’s new offensive into Kharkiv Oblast, the first time a serious push has been made to take territory across the border since the area was liberated from Russian occupation in Ukraine’s lightning counteroffensive in September 2022.

Now, the town is on the brink of becoming the first major settlement to be occupied by Russian for a second time once already liberated.

The prospect of a new, large-scale offensive on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, had loomed for months, and now comes at a time when overstretched Ukrainian forces are steadily losing ground in several hotspots further southeast in Donetsk Oblast.

The Kyiv Independent visited Vovchansk on May 11, one day after the first incursions were made into Ukrainian territory in two sectors of the border.

Further west, Russian forces have reportedly taken several Ukrainian villages, bringing them around 25 kilometers from the outskirts of Kharkiv itself.

The second axis is aimed at Vovchansk.

By the time of publication, Russian forces had reached the outskirts of the town, according to a Facebook post by Denys Yaroslavskyi, a Ukrainian reconnaissance commander serving in the area, as well as police officers cited by Associated Press journalists on May 10.

The road to Vovchansk is clouded in parts by thick smoke: large tracts of pine forest across the area are in flames, though it’s unclear if due to the very dry spring or Russian bombing.

Inside the town, the atmosphere is eerie: no Ukrainian soldiers could be seen out in the open, only the occasional civilian, usually sitting outside, oblivious to the battles being waged around them.

Above, the ominous buzz of Russian drones can often be heard in the clear skies, always on the lookout for potential targets.

Local police teams and volunteer organizations are racing against time to evacuate as many civilians from Vovchansk and the surrounding villages.

Operating out of a central hub in a nearby village, police cars fan across the town, heading to addresses where people have called in with requests to be pulled out.

Since the offensive began, hundreds of those remaining in Vovchansk, which had a pre-war population of around 17,000, are being evacuated each day, Kharkivskyi told the Kyiv Independent.

As of the afternoon on May 12, around 500 people were left in the town, according to Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov.

In the midst of the wholesale destruction of their city, some residents insist on staying put no matter what.

As is the case in front-line settlements across Ukraine, residents often remain stubbornly out of attachment to their homes and other belongings.

The police car takes a turn onto a nondescript street of houses outside the town center.

A stocky, curly-haired man wanders aimlessly out onto the road. His hands, face, and clothes are caked in dark grey soot, while his wrist is adorned with a fresh foam and bandage dressing.

For 65-year-old retired railway worker Serhii Kotsar, as of the previous day, there is almost nothing left to remain attached to.

The house behind him, where he was born and grew up, took a direct hit from a Russian gliding bomb around 2 p.m.

Smoke still rises from the rubble, with very little left of the interior that hasn’t been buried or burnt beyond recognition.

“That’s where I was with her (his wife), we were just having lunch,” he said, looking to the last intact walls of what used to be his house, “and this is what happened,” turning to point towards the rest of the ruins.

Suffering major head and rib injuries, his wife was immediately evacuated to hospital in Kharkiv, but Kotsar himself, despite everything, chooses to stay put.

Much more at the link!

And here is The Kyiv Independent‘s video reporting:

 

Ukrainian Marine Kriegsforscher has posted an assessment of Russia’s attempted invasion of Kharkiv Oblast and threat of invasion of Sumy Oblast:

And a note for Ukrainians: don’t be dumb shells. The situation at this stage is under control.

1) There are enough VOPs there. No one will keep the fighters in DKU under artillery fire. There are lines of defense;

2) footage of the enemy’s infantry walking was shot in the gray zone and there is nothing critical about it.

Sumy Oblast:

Here’s The Kyiv Independent‘s video reporting on the situation in Sumy Oblast:

Chasiv Yar:

The Avdiivka front:

 

 

Moscow:

Some early thoughts. This doesn’t appear to be designed as a demotion for Shoigu who not only received an important position as Secretary of the Security Council but also will retain oversight of domestic and foreign defense issues, taking that from the new Minister of Defense. Andrey Belousov’s background is in economics, not defense, and he served as acting Prime Minister when Mikhail Mishustin contracted COVID-19. This may seem surprising, but Anatoly Serdyukov’s background was in business and he served as Minister of Taxes before he was appointed Minister of Defense in 2007. At the time, Putin deliberately chose someone from outside of the MoD (Ministers of Defense in the 1990s were former generals) to enact a painful and unpopular reform. This choice is likely a reflection of Putin’s personal trust in Belousov, and the need for a better internal manger of the MoD’s bureaucracy. Although Gerasimov remains in his post, I would not be surprised if Belousov replaces him with someone more popular and to have a Chief of the General Staff who owes his position to him. The big loser in this shuffle appears to be Patrushev, who was also one of the key decisionmakers behind the invasion of Ukraine. Lastly, many of these officials have been in their positions for more than a decade, and there was clearly a need for changes. Shoigu and Gerasimov have been in their positions since 2012 and Patrushev since 2008.

My quick take on the shake up is that Putin is simply moving the loyalists he actually trusts around. Shoigu is not out; just moved to another position that is almost a sort of director of directors of domestic, national, and foreign security. I think the big loser here is Patrushev. Patrushev, the Russian sort of equivalent to the American National Security Advisor, is considered to be more hawkish, reactionary, blood thirsty, and revanchist than Putin. He is often talked about as the real potential successor to Putin. He has now been significantly sidelined in this reshuffle. It may be that Putin is trying to coup proof himself in regard to Patrushev and the latter’s ambitions.

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Volgograd Oblast, Russia:

/1. At night, there was a drone attack on the Russian oil refinery in Volgograd. As a result of the strikes, a fire started at the refinery. It is not yet known for certain what equipment was damaged.

The plant’s capacity is 14.8 million tons. 475 km from the frontline.

Volgograd oil refinery was also attacked back in the beginning of February 2024.
There is also information from some media that this oil refinery was attacked on the night from 10-11 of May. However there is not much information regarding that attack besides of unconfirmed claims.

/4. As local Russian Volgograd media say:

“A fire at an oil refinery, caused by the fall of a downed drone, occurred at the ELOU AVT-1, a primary oil refining unit with a capacity of six million tons of oil per year, which was put into operation only in 2015.”

Here we are not interested in the fact that Russian media write that it was a downed drone. With attacks on oil refineries, it is a constant practice when Russian media declare after attacks that hits on important installations at the plant are downed drones. Interesting thing is that they write about hit on the ELOU AVT-1. Most often, when Russians write about damage to a specific installation, this is later confirmed.

Official Russian information about ELOU AVT-1 of the Volgograd oil field refinery:

“The AVT-1 primary oil refining unit with a capacity of 6 million tons/year was put into operation in 2015. In 2023, the technical re-equipment of the AVT-1 ELOU installation was completed. As a result, the facility’s capacity was increased to 121%.”

(6*121%=7,26 million tons/year estimated capacity of ELOU AVT-1)

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

20Comments

  2. 2.

    grubert

    A Russian expat YouTuber thinks this is part of an internal battle and Putin is not as secure as he seems.  No link, dumb phone, but it’s Constantine, the “unusual Russian.”. Fwiw.

  4. 4.

    rekoob

    This Wednesday, 15 May 2024, PBS is airing a special documentary on Nature regarding the saving of animals in Ukraine:

    PBS Nature Preview

    Apparently, Patron figures prominently. Mark your calendars/DVRs!

    Thanks, Adam, for all the updates.

  5. 5.

    Traveller

    I have two recent questions on Russian soldiers that are perplexing me. First, it seems from the video evidence that a number of Russian shoulders prefer committing suicide, (and some of the most awful ways possible), rather than being captured. Maybe even hopefully receive medical help, and survive the war.

    To the contrary, I’ve seen some Ukrainian soldiers recently captured on the northeast front and various people are attacking them for surrendering, or being captured, but regardless, surviving. Unlike other commentators, I am happy to see some Ukrainian soldiers make it through this even if it is after they have been captured. I am pushing fairly hard in these regards in support of these Ukrainian soldiers.

    So, the question really is, why is there this great preference of Russian soldiers to commit suicide rather than face capture? This seems extremely odd to me. What is going on in their heads?

    Secondly, looking through the various posted videos, I frequently see dead Russian soldiers that are actually on fire. To me it seems that they’re uniforms must be made out of rayon or some synthetic material that burns furiously like plastic. This seems extremely odd to me also and that I would think that any uniforms would have fire retardant chemicals built into the uniform. In other words, I see Russian soldiers on fire and this makes no sense to me at all either. Are Russian uniforms really this bad? They look good, but if they burn, no matter how good they look, they are bad. Best Wishes, Traveller

  6. 6.

    Jay

    @Traveller:

    So, the question really is, why is there this great preference of Russian soldiers to commit suicide rather than face capture? This seems extremely odd to me. What is going on in their heads?

    3 things.
    Get captured, and if you are getting paid, payments stop.
    Propagandized that all Ukrainians are Nazi’s and will treat them like the Nazi’s treated Soviet Prisoners.
    Last, how the Soviet Union treated Soviet POW’s who were returned after WWII.

    For the Ukrainians, they know they may be executed, will be tortured, may be maimed, will be starved, but also that Ukraine will move heaven and earth to get them back and heal them.

    A lot of “ruZZian” “uniform gear” from the uniforms themselves, to helmets and body armor, are products meant for AirSoft games that are sold to the ruZZian MOD through corrupt contracts.

  7. 7.

    Andrya

    The also need to develop policies and strategies to be able to overcome the United States entering the war on the side of Russia if Trump is reelected.

    Adam-  Yikes!   I had expected TIFG, if he was (G-d forbid) reelected, would utterly abandon Ukraine, including lifting all sanctions- is that what you mean by entering the war on the russian side?  I cannot bring myself to believe that he would send russia weapons- or even US troops?  Please explain, my hair is on fire!

  8. 8.

    Gin & Tonic

    The supplemental aid package that just passed is the last one Ukraine is going to get from the US for a very long time, if at all.

    QFT.

  9. 9.

    Jay

    @Traveller:

    oh, 4th thing,

    If you die in the SMO. if your body is recovered by ruZZia,

    your family might get a 100,000 ruble payout, (they are supposed to, but many say it never happens),

    or maybe a new Lada,

    more likely, a sack of potatoes, or a bag of carrots, or a load of free firewood.

  10. 10.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Much of the last passed Aid legislation is financial aid for Ukraine to buy US weapons systems, but,

    “Swaps”, where Ukraine get’s used weapons from US military stocks, only happen when the Mfgr has backfilled US stocks, which could be a year and a half from now at current manufacturing rates.

    “Buys”, where Ukrainian orders are entered into the queue, which could be filled a long, long time from now.

  11. 11.

    Bill Arnold

    Is there any counter planned in the US military support vs the Russian glide bombs? E.g. AIM-120 AMRAAMs (long range versions) to push the Su-34s beyond glide bomb range? Or other long range missile defenses?
    (Also, the airfields involved in glide (or otherwise) bombing (civilian targets in) Ukrainian cities need destruction, and the west should consider supplying weapons for this.)

  12. 12.

    Traveller

    @Jay:

    @Jay:  Yes, there is that, of course, but yesterday’s suicide that shocked me was a hand grenade tucked firmly under the chin…I am not sure there were many remains to be identified…though I suppose the corpse would still have some kind of ID Tag and probably an ID Card on the body…still, I think a payout would be questioned…

    Yet, as a perfect means of suicide this seem pretty certain to get the job done…people can and have survived a bullet to the head…but a grenade, not so much.

    I sense there is something cultural going on here…like Colonel Saito at the end of The Bridge Over the River Kwai committing Hari-Cari…or the fanaticism of many Japanese troops to be true in this fashion one way or another…it is something I just can’t get my head around, or understand. A Cultural Thing. Traveller

  13. 13.

    Jay

    @Traveller:

    sadly, as documented many times, it’s in their training. They always keep one grenade for killing themselves, when they can.

    Many of course, are wounded. They know that there is little chance that anyone will come for them, that first aid and medical care is a joke, so rather than dying slowly alone,…….

  14. 14.

    bookworm1398

    @Traveller. I suspect it’s not a loyalty thing but more of a despair thing. Their baseline desire to live is low based on their experiences in life so far

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Bill Arnold: Even w/ the ER version of AMRAAMs, the NASAM system only has max range of 50 km. Su-34s dropping glide bombs can still launch at near max range (~ 40 km), then immediately turn tail & dive/run. The RuAF does not care much about the accuracy of the glide bombs, and the NASAM systems (which Ukraine probably does not have enough of) have to be sited some distance behind the front lines that serve as targets for the Russian glide bombs.

    What can threaten the Russian launch platforms are S-300 series SAMs (even the earliest versions have 90 km range), & in the future F-16s armed w/ AMRAAM missiles (preferably the longer ranged D variants). The Gepard AAAs (which Ukraine also does not have enough of) can perhaps take down the glide bombs as they approach.

  16. 16.

    Traveller

    @Jay: ​
      In their training? Yikes, but I think also that Bookwork1398 has noted something that touches me as real:

    …more of a despair thing. Their baseline desire to live is low based on their experiences in life so far

    Maybe profoundly true, here certainly, but maybe also true in….many aspects of human experience & interaction. Hummm, I will have to think on this…Best Wishes, Traveller

  17. 17.

    Jay

    @Traveller:

    yeah, Bookwork1398 has hit on something,

    but like many things, it’s probably like an onion,

    layers, on layers,

    or parfait, everybody likes parfait.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    An informative Twitter thread from Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment, discussing the key members of Putin’s new cabinet, the institutionalization of the Sino-Russian entente, & how Putin’s new team might work w/ the CPC leadership:

    What does a cabinet reshuffle in Russia mean for Sin-Russian government-to-government ties? It’s about continuity, deepening, and long-term. Also, as Beijing and Moscow expand their defense industrial cooperation, Putin has elevated high-caliber professionals with China experience.

    …

    My main quibble is that Russia’s COVID response was anything but competent.

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