(Image by NEIVANMADE)

As I begin writing tonight’s update – 7:30 PM EDT – air raid alerts are up for all of central Ukraine from north to south. Zaporizhzhia’s alert just dropped off. At 8:30 PM EDT as I get ready to hit publish, air raid alerts are up over all of eastern and central Ukraine except for Sumy Oblast. As is so often the case, the small hours before dawn are going to be long ones for Ukraine.

Today is also the Day of Remembrance for the Soviet Deportation of the Crimean Tartars:

May 18 – Day of Remembrance of Deportation of Crimean Tatars

In 1944, Stalin deported hundreds of thousands from Crimea to Soviet regions, nearly half perishing. Declared genocide by Ukraine in 2015. History repeats as they face persecution under Russian occupation since 2014. pic.twitter.com/Ynn5GhHw2t

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 18, 2024

The Russian are continuing to hammer Kharkiv with glide bombs.

In Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, russian shelling struck a car carrying four civilians attempting to flee the town, the prosecutor’s office reported. A 70-year-old driver and an 83-year-old passenger were killed instantly, while two other passengers sustained injuries.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 18, 2024

https://twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1791859494991093897

The Russians are also still pounding away at Sumy Oblast:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1791958424420266199

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

Russian forces attacked ten border areas and settlements of Sumy Oblast on May 18, firing 46 times and causing at least 284 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.

The communities of Mykolaivka, Khotin, Yunakivka, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Novo Sloboda, Esman, Shalyhyne, and Seredyna-Buda were targeted.

The Russian military struck the communities using artillery fire, AGS-17 grenade launchers, FPV drones, and mortar shelling, while also dropping mines.

In the village of Esman, one person was injured as a result of mortar shelling attacks.

The town of Bilopillia experienced the most attacks, with 76 explosions recorded in the area. Bilopillia, which had a pre-war population of about 15,600 residents, lies just eight kilometers south of the Ukraine-Russia border.

Russian strikes against the Sumy region have become increasingly destructive in recent months. Amid intensified attacks, Ukrainian authorities ordered further evacuations from the region.

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Wherever the Situation is Difficult, Our Forces Give a Decent Rebuff to the Occupier – Address by the President of Ukraine

18 May 2024 – 19:17

Dear Ukrainians!

Today is a special day. Today we remember the year 1944 – the deportation of the Crimean Tatar people – and honor the memory of its victims. Unfortunately, our history is quite full of tragic pages – of things our people had to go through. But no matter how bitter or terrible these pages were, they will never become pages of lies, let alone the last pages for Ukraine.

Today, as we commemorate the victims of the deportation of the Crimean Tatars and condemn Russia’s abuse of Crimea, we feel, we know, that Russian evil is not and will not be omnipotent. The occupier’s time on our land is limited, and their expulsion is inevitable, and it depends on how we all resist, how we all try to unite the world, and how the world itself is determined – determined to protect humanity and life.

The Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 was indeed a test – a test of determination for everyone in the world. There was no proper reaction at the time, and Putin decided that he could allegedly outgrow Crimea, that he could allegedly do more evil – with impunity. February 24th put a stop to that – through the resistance of all Ukrainians, of all our people: different people – of different generations, of various views – who all equally deterred the occupier.

The historical point put then will never again become a semicolon for Ukraine. Moscow will never have a chance to conquer our country, our people, our consciousness and history. And now, in our battles for Ukraine, in our work for Ukraine, we have reached a level where Russian evil will not hide from our just responses even on its own territory.

I thank all our warriors and units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, who proved this week that the Russian state will pay for everything it does against our people and our society. I thank each of our warriors who showed sufficient resilience and managed to gain more confidence, especially in the Kharkiv direction, this week. The invaders are losing their infantry and equipment – it’s a significant loss, although, as in 2022, they were counting on a rapid advance through our land.

We also do not forget about other directions of combat besides the Kharkiv ones: Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, the southern directions – wherever the situation is difficult, our forces give a decent rebuff to the occupier. In particular, I would like to specially and separately thank the guys who repelled the Russian assault on Chasiv Yar. Our warriors destroyed more than twenty armored vehicles of the occupier. Well done, guys!

And I also thank every representative of our state – the entire diplomatic team of the Office, our government officials, our embassies, the civil society activists who are helping – I thank you for the steady, step-by-step progress in the preparation of the Peace Summit – the first Global Summit that will be held in Switzerland.

Together with our partners, we are preparing a real platform – a platform for the world that is truly capable of forcing Russia into peace, the world that Russia will not be able to deceive. This week we have added new participants to the Summit. At the level of Heads of State and Government alone, I had conversations with Georgia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Malawi, Portugal, Slovenia, France, Sweden, and Liberia, and I also spoke with the U.S. Secretary of State. And the next week will also be active in terms of diplomacy. Ukrainian diplomacy is working together with Ukrainian weapons for the sake of a just peace for our country and a just punishment for Russia for this war. We will definitely fulfill our Ukrainian tasks.

I thank everyone who helps! I thank everyone who chose Ukraine and ensures the strength and results for our country.

Glory to Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1791858894311931924

“No one is going to give up” – President @ZelenskyyUa commenting on the Russian offensive.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with AFP that Ukraine will hold its defensive lines to stop any major Russian breakthrough, and the occupiers do not have enough forces for a “full-scale offensive on the capital.”

🔹The president called on China and the developed countries in the world to participate in the peace summit to be held in Switzerland. In his opinion, global players such as China “have influence over Russia.”

“The more such countries are on our side, I would say on the side of ending the war, the more Russia will have to move and reckon with them,” Zelenskyy said.

❗️According to the President, Ukraine has only “about 25% of what we need” to defend the country in terms of air defense. He added that “in order to have parity” with Russia, 120-130 F-16 fighters or other modern aircraft are needed.

Full interview:

The cost:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1791721498975105216

A brief fight update:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1791978256901485058

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1791976662667538680

https://twitter.com/ESPNRingside/status/1791976603376926872

Washington, DC:

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1791513006662181270

Georgia:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1791834047431188797

Tatiania Stanovaya has published a new article in Foreign Affairs, which is very good, however it is also being misunderstood. So she posted a thread to make her points explicit. Here it is from the Thread Reader App:

In my recent piece in Foreign Affairs, I argued that nobody in Moscow is looking for an exit strategy from the war; rather, people are prepared to fight as long as it takes. Many interpreted this as a thesis that Moscow will not negotiate with Ukraine or agree to a ceasefire. That is not what I was saying. Here are several points to make my understanding more nuanced: 1/

Russia’s Pro-Putin ElitesHow the dictator recruited them to his anti-Western agenda.https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russias-pro-putin-elites

There is no discussion among senior officials in the Kremlin about negotiating with Ukraine or what compromises could be reached with Kyiv or the West. Decision-making on this issue is monopolized by Putin, and many senior officials simply guess what he wants but do not dare to initiate anything. The common belief is that Russia is winning, advancing successfully, and has the upper hand in Ukraine. Hence, they see no point in talking to the West, let alone Ukraine. 2/ 

Putin does not aim to storm Odessa, Kyiv, or even Kharkiv. First, he lacks the army for that. Second, he does not want to engage in large-scale battles. His strategy is to impose on Ukraine military pressure, diminish military infrastructure, and intimidate locals to coerce Kyiv into surrendering and accepting Russian demands. He will only take what he believes he can, given his limited military capacity and wait when Ukraine falls. 3/ 

Yes, Putin wants to talk, but strictly on Russian terms. He is concerned that a pause might be used by the West and Ukraine to rearm. Because of this, he will be extremely cautious about the conditions of any talks. 4/ 

He will not talk to Zelensky, as he does not believe Zelensky can deliver what Russia wants from Ukraine. Moscow has been signalling for months that the West must remove Zelensky. However, if Zelensky were to lift the ban on talks with Russia and open a window for negotiations, Putin might seize this opportunity (as a showcase and temporarily)—not to start real talks, but to demonstrate his readiness for negotiations, expecting, as well, it to accelerate Zelensky’s departure. Putin might also agree to a tactical ceasefire if reassured that it would not be used to rearm Ukraine and if he sees Ukraine is desperate and ready to discuss Russian demands. 5/ 

So, what are Russia’s demands? Putin’s flexibility will depend on the progress on three tracks, which are inter-dependable: 6/ 

1. Washington’s position: If Putin has any hope that the US might consider an “ironclad” ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership and other guarantees of neutrality, his position on two other tracks might soften.
2. Kyiv’s readiness to consider political demands: Putin wants a “friendly” regime in Ukraine—one that would exclude the emergence of anti-Russian forces. I will not go into details here, but If he believes he can achieve this, he may be flexible on territorial matters. It is important to say that I do not believe this is ever possible, but in Putin’s vision, it is no problem if Odessa remains Ukrainian as long as Ukraine is “friendly.”
3. Territorial Matters: If there is no progress on the first two tracks, Putin will continue a creeping offensive for as long as needed. If he is more successful militarily and gain more territories, he will become more contemptuous about first and second tracks. 7/ 

The point of my article in Foreign Affairs was that if there is no sign from the West that serious talks are possible (in Putin’s eyes and those of the Russian ruling elite there are no such signs), the only path is further escalation. No one is concerned about this unless it brings us to the brink of nuclear war—an eventuality that might split the elite (I do not urge to provoke the nuclear escalation). Until then, the political class will stick with Putin and support his military ambitions. 8/End 

The only appropriate response is to provide Ukraine what it needs so that it can find all Russian forces, fix them in place, and reduce them. Once the Russian military is reduced to the point of complete ineffectiveness, then, and only then, could negotiations begin.

Donetsk Oblast:

Another day, another SU-25 brought down by the Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1791913428988146065

Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1791727978684002338

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1791856541554888951

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1791924175202062402

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1791811507409302012

https://twitter.com/BohuslavskaKate/status/1791940766605918340

https://twitter.com/serhii_bolvinov/status/1791787063034958008

Here’s the machine translation of Serhiy Bolvinov’s, the head of the Intelligence Department of the National Security Service, first tweet:

KAB flies straight into a high-rise building in the center of Kharkiv.

The video shows an enemy attack on a residential building on May 14 on the street. Sciences. A modified guided air bomb in the frame – we are also collecting such physical evidence.

The Russians are deliberately and purposefully shelling civilian residential buildings.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1791842427873210447

Russian occupied Crimea:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1791956329373843492

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1791952437495877922

Chasiv Yar:

https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1791882849252978999

The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1791915266147836162

The Avdiivka front:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1791859359573504288

The Kreminna front:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1791735035189485815

For you drone enthusiasts:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1791767690463281219

A crucial part of the drone war is not only their production, but also testing, installing firmware, and training of pilots directly in combat units.

The “Achilles” strike FPV battalion of the 92nd Brigade invites anyone to join their workshop and work together for victory. There is always enough work for anyone, even those without any experience.

https://t.me/brigada92_war/1660

DarthPutinKGB has posted his guide to tankies. From the Thread Reader App:

The Darth guide to different models of tankies. 🧵 

The “Basic” tankie. Russia has never invaded anyone ever. Russia become the world’s biggest country by peacefully defending itself in other people’s countries. 

The “Russia was provoked tankie”. NATO caused this war. It did this by being seen as a better option to Russia’s neighbors than Russia is and then by actually being a better option to Russia’s neighbors than Russia is. 

The “no to war no to nato” tankie. Opposes all forms of western imperialism, such as countries freely joining NATO. Appeases all forms of Russian imperialism, such as cities being flattened as they join Russia. 

The “anti imperialist” tankie. In the name of anti imperialism, Russia must be given a veto over the foreign policy of its neighbors and control who their head of state is. 

The “short skirt tankie”. Ukraine deserves to be invaded cos it was warned about flirting with other countries. 

The “what about” tankie. Thinks US doing something is wrong except if Russia does it when it’s right. 

The “academic tankie”. Pretends it is explaining Russia but is actually excusing it. Is unaware it sounds a lot like Kissinger. 

The “anti fascist” tankie. Supports a homophobic, sexist, frequently antisemitic regime that likes and funds fascists. 

The “fascist” tankie. Supports a homophobic, sexist, frequently antisemitic regime that likes and funds fascists. 

The “traditional values” tankie. Likes Russia cos we represent traditional values like legalised wife beating & mass kidnap of children. 

The “pro Hamas” tankie. Says you can’t go around grabbing pieces of land just cos your ancestors used to live there. 

The “Pro business” tankie. Thinks being able to change international borders by force & the dismantling of the international rules based order is a good for long term economic growth. 

The “defence contractors want this war” tankie. Thinks Russian defence contractors hope the war stops cos they’re ethical. Usually used to think the war wouldn’t happen in the first place. 

The “this is a proxy war” tankie. Doesn’t know/care that North Korea & Iran are waging a proxy war against the USA to the last Russian 

The “Ukrainians are forced to fight” tankie. Thinks as soon as the west stops arming Ukraine they and Russians will link arms and live happily ever after. 

The “let’s respect Russia” tankie. Thinks we can respect Russia and make the problem go away. Doesn’t care that this means treating Russia’s neighbors with disrespect. Cannot square this circle. Wears flannel a lot. 

The “this will cause nuclear war” tankie. Thinks Russia is not killing civilians, attacking civilian infra and is really nice. Also thinks Russia will kill every living thing on the planet if provoked. Aka Schrödinger’s tankie. 

The “let’s negotiate” tankie. This deal, finally, is actually the one Russia will actually stick too. Hasn’t noticed that Russian said it won’t negotiate 

The “appeasement tankie”. History teaches us this always works. Used to think the idea of the war was a hoax. 

The “MAGA tankie”. Is genuine US patriot 2nd amendment protect south border won’t vote for Iosef Bidenovich. Oddly interested in Ruble’s exchange rate to $. 

The “Brooklyn basement tankie”. Looks like less handsome Paul Giamatti. Knows everything. Has never been correct about anything. Doesn’t own soap. 

The “Irish” tankie. Looks at Ukraine. Sees its large, nuclear-armed eastern neighbor that has violent, imperialist, brutal history of conquest & cultural oppression against it & decides “No parallels here, those are the good guys in this”. 

The “tech/crypto bro” tankie. Thinks western weapons won’t be any difference, sending them will also cause nuclear war & any strike on Crimea will lead to a holocaust. Actually thinks female Z head influencers may sleep with him. 

The “we mustn’t escalate” tankie. Thinks west arming Ukraine is bad. North Korea arming Russia is ok. Will one day wonder were China got the idea invading Taiwan would be consequence free. 

The “blogger” tankie. Granny spoke Russian to it once a week till it was 9. Read 2 chapters of War and Peace. Has deleted a lot of tweets made between Dec 21 & Feb 22. 

The “CIA coup” tankie. Thinks Eastern Europeans can’t protest broken election promises themselves without American help while usually claiming to be anti racist. Believes one woman handing out biscuits is proof of this CIA plot. 

The “genocide in the Donbas” tankie. We all want to see this one debate this point with Prigozhin who said it’s bullshit but sadly Prigozhin found out what airdefense doing so we can’t. 

The “Russia is fighting all of NATO” tankie. NATO is amazing and the only reason hasn’t won. NATO is also shit cos it lost to goat herders on technicals in Afghanistan. 

The “NATO is an aggressive alliance” tankie. Russia had to invade to prevent NATO, which lacks the ammunition to invade Russia, from invading Russia even though it can’t 

The “pro Hamas tankie 2.0”. Says you have to let a nuclear power take over territory and remove the inhabitants to prevent nuclear war. Gets very angry, overloads & then reboots as the “what about tankie” when told about the irony of this. 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets today. Here is some adjacent material:

https://twitter.com/UAarmy_animals/status/1791987094312698014

https://twitter.com/UAarmy_animals/status/1791986346761875829

https://twitter.com/UAarmy_animals/status/1791985795290509764

https://twitter.com/UAarmy_animals/status/1791985730194989146

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

😌🤭💗

♬ оригінальний звук – Спотіфай🎧🇺🇦

Open thread!