(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping update. Rosie went for her fourth and final chemo treatment in round 1 today. Her white blood cell count was way up where the oncology vet wants it. Provided all the bloodwork remains good, she’s got two weeks off until the next round begins. Right now she’s chilling on the couch and provided the humidity doesn’t spike this evening, once I finish this update and do a quick lift, I’ll take her and Ruby for as far of a walk as she’s willing to go. Thank everyone again for their thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations. They are all greatly appreciated.
As I start tonight’s post – at 7:15 PM EDT – air raid alerts are up over most of central and eastern Ukraine.
The butcher’s bill from Kharkiv!
While this video is itself not graphic, the content being discussed is!
“When the second strike took place the doctor who came to put a tourniquet on my leg lost his arm. Instead of it flying into me, it went into his arm.”
– 22-year-old Anastasia, one of the victims of the Russian ‘double tap” strike on a recreation area in Cherkaska Lozova, Kharkiv… pic.twitter.com/rYj5QtabJ2— Natalka (@NatalkaKyiv) May 20, 2024
“When the second strike took place the doctor who came to put a tourniquet on my leg lost his arm. Instead of it flying into me, it went into his arm.”
– 22-year-old Anastasia, one of the victims of the Russian ‘double tap” strike on a recreation area in Cherkaska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast.Anastasia lost her beloved, and her pregnant friend. Anastasia herself is in serious condition. She is preparing for surgery. The young woman has an open leg fracture, and a part of the bone inside her leg is missing. She has numerous torn wounds, bruises and a concussion.
Today, the number of fatalities in the attack rose to 7 after the body fragments of another victim were discovered in the water.
28 people were injured in the attack. 22 had to be hospitalized. 6 are in intensive care. The doctors are fighting for their lives.
Never forgive. Never forget.
Video: Ekaterina Kusmarova
All Clear!!
Kharkiv mourns today—Russia killed 12 civilians yesterday. These murders are a daily reality that could be prevented:
– Deploy more air defense systems
– Allow strikes deep into Russia with Western weapons
Why are these simple steps so difficult to take? pic.twitter.com/NSLTV8PH0r— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 20, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Summit will be Truly Global, Leaders from All Continents will be Represented – Address by the President
20 May 2024 – 21:40
Dear Ukrainians!
Summary of the day.
I have just held a long meeting on an interim analysis of our preparations for the Peace Summit. We reviewed which states are already with us at the Summit and which ones we still need to work with. It is already clear that the Summit will be truly global, leaders from all continents will be represented. Many nations that value normal peaceful coexistence of peoples. We already have an understanding of the Summit’s content – of the meeting’s outcome we should achieve. I am grateful to all states, all leaders, all ambassadors of peace who help us prepare the Summit. In the three weeks remaining before the Summit, we will have time to work with dozens of leaders and states – those we expect to attend the Summit. Today I spoke with the Prime Minister of Croatia. Croatia – Mr. Prime Minister – confirms attendance. I am grateful for this and for the continued support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country, support for our defense. Croatia also supports our accession to the European Union, and we are working to ensure that Croatia joins the G7 Declaration of Support for Ukraine – on security commitments for our country. And it is important that several new security agreements with European countries have already been prepared, and several more agreements with our partners are now at the stage of coordinating specific details. In the near future, we will enhance this new security architecture for our country. New agreements will be signed. Step by step, we are creating new pillars for a rules-based international order. Despite all the brutality of Russian pressure and all the meanness of Russian terror, the world must prove that a consolidated force of all those who value life is enough to defend life and succeed in doing so. This is important for every country, for every nation, and if it works for Ukraine, it will definitely work for all other countries.
Today I spoke with the Commander-in-Chief about the situation in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions in particular. We maintain control everywhere. Russian murderers are actively using guided aerial bombs – in the area of Chasiv Yar, in the Pokrovsk sector, in the area of Lyptsi in the Kharkiv region, and in other combat areas. This brings us back again and again to the need for air defense – for additional defense systems that could significantly mitigate the difficulties for our warriors and the threat to our cities and communities. This also pertains to the preparation for the transition of our Air Force to new combat aircraft. Unfortunately, the free world still lacks efficiency in these two tasks. But we still have a perspective and promising work with several partners – and we are doing everything to make sure that the day comes as soon as possible when we can add the power of “Patriots” to our eastern regions, our cities – such as Kharkiv, Sumy and others. I am grateful to all partners who understand this necessity of ours and its importance – the real strategic power of air defense in this war. Putin has nothing but terror. This is the basis of his capabilities. And every limitation of Russia’s terrorist potential is a compulsion to peace. Our weapons to defend Ukrainian positions, our joint diplomatic efforts for the sake of the Peace Formula, our work to hold Russia legally accountable for the war – all of this brings peace closer.
I am grateful to everyone who stands with Ukraine! Glory to all our warriors! Thank you to everyone who joins the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
The Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meeting (Ramstein)
Minister @rustem_umerov on today’s meeting of the UDCG #Ramstein 22:
– Ukraine continues to courageously resist russian aggression.
– We are restoring existing combat units and creating new brigades.
– Our priority is heavy weapons: tanks, APCs, howitzers etc. pic.twitter.com/QQmCuohxen— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 20, 2024
– russia's missile strikes caused a difficult situation in the energy sector. They are a potential danger to neighboring countries. Medium&long-range air defense systems are an urgent need
– Grateful to our partners for their support. Together can we stop russian aggression!— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 20, 2024
Lithuania:
I don't feel comfortable sending condolences while Iran is sending drones that are used against civilians in Ukraine.
— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) May 20, 2024
Holland:
The Netherlands will provide YPR-765 armored vehicles to Ukraine.
YPRs play an important role in #UAarmy. They provide fire support for units in battle, evacuate the wounded soldiers, and also deliver ammunition to the front line.
We are grateful to our partners from… pic.twitter.com/HfGjW3MweT
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 20, 2024
Spain:
Spain announced the delivery of the second batch of Leopard tanks to Ukraine. The military package also includes 155-mm artillery ammunition, Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, anti-drone systems, optronic surveillance and tracking systems, and turrets.
We are grateful to Spain… pic.twitter.com/YiSd0K4yp5
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 20, 2024
Spain announced the delivery of the second batch of Leopard tanks to Ukraine. The military package also includes 155-mm artillery ammunition, Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, anti-drone systems, optronic surveillance and tracking systems, and turrets.
We are grateful to Spain for their steadfast support! Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇪🇸
@Defensagob
Estonia & Luxembourg:
#ITcoalition, co-led by Estonia and Luxembourg, continues to strengthen Ukraine’s capabilities.
Additional purchase orders worth €5.2 million have been placed.
We are grateful for your support!
🤝🇱🇺🤝🇪🇪 https://t.co/U0nhf6aVXf— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 20, 2024
Estonia:
Kaja Kallas told the @FT that “there are countries who are training soldiers on the ground already” and they did so at their own risk. If training personnel were attacked by Russian forces it would not automatically trigger Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, she said.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 20, 2024
Kaja Kallas told the @FT
that “there are countries who are training soldiers on the ground already” and they did so at their own risk. If training personnel were attacked by Russian forces it would not automatically trigger Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, she said.…
Kallas argued helping train Ukraine’s forces on its own territory, as opposed to elsewhere in Europe, would not be escalatory.
“Russia’s propaganda is all about being in a war with Nato, so they don’t need an excuse. Whatever we do on our side . . . If they want to attack, they will attack.”
“I can’t possibly imagine that if somebody is hurt there, then those who have sent their people will say ‘it’s article five. Let’s . . . bomb Russia.’ It is not how it works. It’s not automatic. So these fears are not well-founded.”
An interview from Tallinn with @hallbenjamin
— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) May 20, 2024
Britain:
Thank you, the United Kingdom!
We are grateful for your leadership and unwavering support.
Together, we will overcome the russian evil. https://t.co/yd9bGMznqq— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 20, 2024
Washington, DC:
‼️ @SecDef on whether Ukraine can use American air defenses to hit Russian bombers in Russian territory: "Our expectation is that they continue to use provided weapons on targets inside of Ukraine. The aerial dynamics are a little bit different. But I don't want to speculate."
— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) May 20, 2024
Womp womp!
John E. Herbst, a senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, discussed whether the United States should lift restrictions on the use of US weapons to strike military targets in Russia for Ukraine
📹: Voice of America in conversation with @JohnEdHerbst pic.twitter.com/Z02Yj9jfi9
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 20, 2024
They will not change their approach.
The Azovstal POWs:
86 days they fought, buying time for other cities to prepare.
Now, despite guarantees, they remain prisoners. Tomorrow marks the start of their third year in captivity. pic.twitter.com/LIknSTOeGR
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) May 20, 2024
A photo of negotiations between Ukrainian Defenders and Russian occupiers at Azovstal in Mariupol in May 2022 was published by Azov Brigade commander Denys Prokopenko.
Back then, they agreed to evacuate hundreds of civilians from the Azovstal plant.
As of today, More than 900… https://t.co/8GqxySdhfj
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 20, 2024
A photo of negotiations between Ukrainian Defenders and Russian occupiers at Azovstal in Mariupol in May 2022 was published by Azov Brigade commander Denys Prokopenko.
Back then, they agreed to evacuate hundreds of civilians from the Azovstal plant.
As of today, More than 900 Azov fighters are still in captivity.
The last Azov fighter left Azovstal two years ago, on May 20, 2022.
I remember those days, the tension and pain as we followed the events and how you supported our Heroes.
We must not forget about those who are still in captivity. Freedom to Ukrainian Defenders!
The eastern front:
Командувачем ОСУВ Хортиця призначено генерала Содоля.
Для розуміння, Хортиця це весь східний фронт — від півночі Харківщини до Вугледара.
І це призначення — кадрова катастрофа.
Гіршу кандидатуру, якій плювати на життя солдата, було складно уявити.Раніше Содоль командував… pic.twitter.com/MX3yyA31i9
— Serhii Sternenko ✙ (@sternenko) May 20, 2024
Here’s the machine translation:
General Sodol has been appointed as the commander of the Khortytsia Security Guard.
To understand, Khortytsia is the entire eastern front — from the north of Kharkiv Oblast to Vugledar.
And this appointment is a personnel disaster.
It was difficult to imagine a worse candidate who did not care about the life of a soldier.Previously, Sodol commanded the marines.
No combat marine will say a censorious word about him.
There are a lot of examples in the network when Sodol simply “honed” the marines – from the tragedy with the 37th brigade of marines to the sending of marines to the left bank without any support and protection.It is very strange to see the state declaring the value of human life and appointing to such a high position someone who treats personnel in the worst traditions of Zhukov.
We will start to change for the better and have a chance to win when the generals are also responsible.
Thoughtlessly lost people – prison instead of a position.
And not a promotion, as now.
Ці призначення робить не абстрактна держава, як це зазначає пан Сергій, а конкретна посадова особа, а саме Сирський. Треба називати речі своїми іменами, бо це його кадрова політика https://t.co/5foQHlLXP2
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) May 20, 2024
These appointments are made not by an abstract state, as Mr. Serhiy notes, but by a concrete official, namely Syrskyi. You have to call a spade a spade, because this is his personnel policy
Donetsk Oblast:
Say it Ayden, say it……
Ukraine’s 47th vs russian T-80 in Donetsk pic.twitter.com/zfEAVpHlpy
— Rocke Fella – NAFO Raccoon Spec Ops (@NAFORaccoon) May 19, 2024
"It's like something you see in movies. There are trees falling, the ground is flying," – a Defender of the 28th Mechanized Brigade shares about the Territorial Defense Forces that are working in neighboring positions with his 28th Brigade. They are holding positions near the… pic.twitter.com/A5jDtFTZxW
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 20, 2024
“It’s like something you see in movies. There are trees falling, the ground is flying,” – a Defender of the 28th Mechanized Brigade shares about the Territorial Defense Forces that are working in neighboring positions with his 28th Brigade. They are holding positions near the villages of Kurdiumivka and Ozarianivka, south of Bakhmut, Donetsk region.
These men fight for their families, for their land. Glory!
📹: Suspilne
Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
/2. Footages of SCALP missile debris published by Russians. The strike location was presumably not far away from Lugansk Academy of Internal Affairs. pic.twitter.com/HbshJDMjv0
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 20, 2024
/4. Site of the SCALP missile strike on Yuvileine near Luhansk.
(48.5586139, 39.1853672)https://t.co/XcfZkBhKj0 pic.twitter.com/wneWthMy1i— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 20, 2024
Bilhorod:
Thanks Dmitri for highlighting the Achilles drones unit of the 92nd Assault Brigade.
Achilles relies heavily on donated drones to keep fighting for freedom. Support this elite unit by following their commander @Fedorenko__ys
and drone tester @noni845
Their results are huge! pic.twitter.com/XboPmbTs3P— North Atlantic Flying Object (@KanariFella) May 20, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron.
There are no new Patron tweets today. Here is some adjacent material.
A Ukrainian soldier took a cat from the front line and took him home to his family. pic.twitter.com/IW82kIyaSw
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 19, 2024
Seriously boys pic.twitter.com/diy01ecNxJ
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 19, 2024
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 12, 2024
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 12, 2024
Open thread!
YY_Sima Qian
Kaja Kallas’ comments are sensible as far as it goes, but I think Putin will just specifically target NATO trainers ( if he can) if only as a dominance play. We all know Russia has no respect for LOAC or IHL, but targeting NATO trainers in Ukraine is actually legitimate military action. If NATO trainers are in there in numbers, even if in the rear, & there are significant casualties from Russian strikes, NATO countries will be faced with a dilemma: take the loss as cost of doing business & risk appearing impotent, or respond w/ force & risk escalation w/ a nuclear power. What they are seeking to achieve can be achieved by ramping up material/financial aid & training programs in NATO countries that border Ukraine, w/o risking direct confrontation w/ a nuclear power. Compensating for the inadequacy of the aid & training assistance by taking greater risks w/ direct involvement is ill-conceived.
Of course, I suspect some of these comments from CEE countries are actually aimed at the U.S.: step up more or we will be forced to take the very risks that the Biden Administration has been so painstakingly trying to eliminate.
Mike in NC
Bravo Zulu, Rosie.
Gin & Tonic
The machine translation of Sternenko’s rant about Sodol’s appointment really tones it down. In the original, it is brutal. For instance, “a worse candidate who did not care about the life of a soldier” would more accurately be “a worse candidate than one who’d spit on the life of a soldier.” The entire Tweet is in that vein.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I figured.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Kudos to Lithuania for the Grade A shade/snark. I don’t feel comfortable celebrating anyone’s death, even The Butcher of Tehran. But if Iranians want to, I will cheer them on, albeit quietly.
You can’t fight a war half heartedly. You just can’t & I can’t believe the Biden Administration thought they could get away with it. Does nobody in the American government read history? Because Europe doesn’t have to; they know!
When is the Starlink Snowflake (Thanks Adam!😁) going to be hauled into Congress & do some long overdue explaining?
Thank you Adam, & I’m glad to hear Rosie is doing so well. Take care.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1792610454642037081#m
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1792507950424105400#m
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/natemook/status/1792534985720684905#m
https://nitter.poast.org/Kasparov63/status/1792567213368488049#m
YY_Sima Qian
Tatarigami-UA really dislikes Syrsky:
YY_Sima Qian
A running tally of Western governments’ responses to the ICC issuing warrants for both Hamas & Israeli leaderships:
Not a lot of surprises. It is a bit disappointing that the Czech government, long passionately vocal about defending democracy in Ukraine & Taiwan, gets willfully obtuse when it comes to Israel, essentially arguing that a democratically elected government, ipso facto, cannot commit war crimes or crimes against humanity & that there are no limits when responding to an attack (while also ignoring the long history of colonialism, occupation, oppression & brutality against the Palestinians in Gaza & the WB). The cynical part of me wants to say it is par of the course as far as geopolitics are concerned, but then there are Belgium, Ireland & Spain.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
There is a lot of finger pointing going on, bits and pieces are coming out.
From what I understand so far:
– First lines could not be properly constructed, as what was built was done by shovels at night because of ruZZian drones and artillery. The ruzzian artillery could not be suppressed because they were in ruZZia proper, and there was a shortage of ammo and what ammo they had, the US would not allow them to strike into ruZZia with.
-second lines were/are reasonably constructed in the tree lines, but could have been a lot better, if the Army Units had small equipment like excavators and Bobcats, which they don’t. For example, prefab concrete bunkers.
-third lines were/are constructed by a Civil “contractor” who has been slow, ignored terrain, failed to deploy bunkers, minefields and dragons teeth properly or at all.
– despite sat, radio, phone and drone intel, the ruZZian’s were “allowed” to organize, establish logistics, form up and deploy, because again, Ukraine is forbidden from striking ruZZian targets in ruZZia by the US.
– when the ruZZian attacks came in, Ukraine was blinded because Starlink was jammed, so drone operators could not see the attacks coming and they were only “allowed” to strike the incoming ruZZian attacks once they were in Ukraine.
– most of the first line withdrew successfully to the second line once their positions were untenable. Unfortunately, the second line is not “proof” against 250kilo to 1000kilo glide bombs, and Ukraine lacks AD “allowed” or able to shoot down ruZZian warplanes in ruZZian airspace.
As time goes on, I am sure that we will learn more, but so far, none of the early finger pointing holds up properly to the “blame” game.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: The restrictions on attacking targets in Russia is inexcusable when Russia is attacking across current international borders w/ Ukraine. However, doesn’t Ukraine still have non-Western artillery/munitions/drones to attack targets in Russia?
As for lack of construction equipment, there is vast excess capacity for such equipment in the PRC due to the dramatic slow down in real estate Development & a less dramatic slow down in infrastructure construction, prices have fallen rapidly, & exports from the PRC has correspondingly shot up. (If you are seeing dirt cheap small Made in China excavators, electric or diesel powered, showing up in your markets in the past couple of years, this is why.) There is plenty of opportunity for Ukraine or its Western supporters to snap up loads of construction equipment (new or 2nd hand) via middlemen.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
At the time, just drones. Yes, they had Storm Shadows and Scalps, but those are of more valuable use than on dispersed, infantry, arty and armor. ATACMS , 155mm clusters and GLRDMs are way better. Adding to the drama, it’s “US Supplied Weapons”, not just “US Made Weapons”. So those seized Iranian supplies to the Houthi’s, cannot be used, those South Korean shells, cannot be used.
As for small excavation equipment, well, that is part of the “blame game”. The Ukraine Military never saw the need, NATO and other Supporters of Ukraine never saw the need, just like they never saw the need for night vision, ambulances, evacuation vehicles, good sniper rifles, spotting scopes, small drones, Starlinks, Motorola radios, batteries, gensets, trauma first aid supplies, etc.
About 1/3rd of the critical gear the UA and TD units relies on is crowdfunded, and a lot of their meals are donated.
Now, there are a dozen “blegs” from individual units and NAFO to crowdfund that equipment as units thrown back on defense have realized that a small excavator that can work in a tree line or a rubble filled village is critical.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay:
I was not aware of this, it is messed up! There goes the idea of the US purchasing the retired (but nonetheless modernized) Hawk SAM batteries from SK & Taiwan, for a nominal price, & donating them to Ukraine. What good is long range SAM if they cannot be used to threaten RuAF bombers & MiG-31s flying in Russian airspace? Will the same restrictions apply to the F-16s w/ the AMRAAMs that are coming in a few months?
I’ve noticed it, which frankly is inexcusable given that the financial burden for supplying the such gear is likely a small fraction of the big ticket items. This is on Ukraine for not highlighting such gear as prominently as the sexier equipment & munitions, as well as its supporters for not supplying them.
One of the major drawbacks of the Western aid program is the fact that it understandably contains buy domestic provisions (IOW military Keynesianism), but that necessarily means getting less for the Dollar/Euro, lower production rates, & longer lead times. The West should be leveraging SK’s relatively high quality defense industrial capacity, much like Russia is leveraging Iran’s & NK’s relatively low quality defense industrial base. Russia is leveraging the PRC’s immense civilian & dual use industrial base for its war effort (increasingly via middlemen as US financial sanctions loom), there is a path for Ukraine/the West to do the same (also via middlemen). I strongly suspect a lot of the crowdfunded materiel (drone/drone components, anti-drone weapons, personal protective gear, consumer/dual use electronics, & optics, etc.) for Ukraine are made in the PRC, anyway. I doubt the Chinese leadership is willing to see such direct exports to Ukraine explode, out of sensitivity to Putin, but I don’t think they would be inclined to shut off indirect exports. In any case, it is no more possible for the PRC to police the indirect exports of dual use goods to Ukraine via the EU than it has been for the EU to police such indirect exports to Russia via Türkiye, the UAE, the Caucasus & Central Asia, or the indirect purchase of Russian oil via India.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
BeautifulPlumage
Thank you, as always, Adam. In honor of the Azovstal POWs I made a donation to the Ukraine thermometer. Fuck Russia and all of Putin’s enablers.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Probably not. The US has not supplied any F-16’s to Ukraine or AMRAAM’s, they are all from European nations that have no qualms about Ukraine’s use of them or their supplied weapons.
Most of the Consumer drones used in Ukraine are Chinese. Med gear is mostly European or Western, as the Chinese clones tend to suck. Tendar hunts boars at night, and has sourced really good, almost bleeding edge Euro and US NV scopes for UA units based on his experience. The Territorial Defense, did not exist before this reinvasion. They were just a bunch of guys and girls who looted abandoned ruZZian supplies during the “Thunder Run to Kiev”, formed their own units and decided to keep killing ruZZians. Their average age is 55 and they make up 1/3rd of the UA ground forces.
Ukraine is in a “weird” place. They had 1/3’rd the military they needed, at the start, with more than half, still Soviet trained, basically a “foot wet” in NATO doctrine and gear, and at the same time, they are fighting a war that nobody has ever fought or even saw coming (tech an innovation wise). We saw last summer how well NATO doctrine works with out the full engagement of NATO/US forces and advantages.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Good to know about the F-16s & the AMRAAMs!
BTW, the Polar New Star, while registered in the PRC, & is owned by a PRC company, the owner is actually a wholly owned subsidiary of a Russian company…
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m wondering if you saw Tendar’s analytical piece about Putin’s trip to China. It begins, “When you look at Putin and his entourage in China, you just see a broken servant who asks for another bowl from his master. It is so pathetic….”
Tendar goes on to review Russia’s overall situation, and gives some analysis of China’s as well.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I haven’t been following Tendar, but I think the best analyst of Sino-Russian relations is Alexander Gabuev at the Carnegie Endowment, whose analysis of the visit I have posted in these threads in the past few days.
Once again, the PRC is stringing Russia along on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which is probably the single most important deal Putin is after. In fact, I am not sure the PRC will ever consummate that deal. The CPC leadership has no wish to be beholden to Russian natural gas like Europe had been, one Power of Siberia pipeline enough. For piped natural gas, the PRC prefers the more pliable Turkmenistan & Kazakhstan, which already have 3 pipelines into the PRC & a 4th is in the works. The PRC has also been very aggressive in signing long term LNG contracts w/ Australia, Qatar, Malaysia & Indonesia, & even buying some US natural gas on the spot market. At the macro level, the massive solar/wind/hydro/nuclear buildout, rapid electrification of transportation, & establishing green hydrogen infrastructure for further down the line, will cap PRC demand for natural gas in either piped or liquified forms (& oil, too). For hydrocarbon backup, I think the PRC prefers domestic coal as a source of energy that is abundant, cheap & completely w/in its control.
This could also be read as a sign that Xi & the CPC leadership are in no hurry to YOLO it on an invasion of TW. If the CPC leadership really expected to take military action in the medium term, I think they would have closed the Power of Siberia 2 deal ASAP, since any LNG shipment from Australia will likely to be shut of, from Qatar severely affected, & those from Malaysia & Indonesia affected, too.
Nevertheless, the ability of Russia & its “near abroad” to serve as a secure & reliable source of raw materials to the PRC industry & economy even in the [unlikely] even of war, while Great Power Competition is by far the dominant theme in Sino-US relations, is the reason the CPC leadership will never abandon Putin & stand aside to see the Russian Federation devolve (some of the successor states could then be more oriented toward the West). Russia & the Central Asian Republics have all of the raw materials (hydrocarbons, most metals other than iron ore, minerals, uranium, grains, timber, etc.) that the PRC needs in peace or war, over land routes that is impossible for the US & allies to interdict, under current leaderships that are not likely to be pliable to Western pleading or pressure.
I am generally not impressed by Gideon Rachman at the FT, but I think he captured the dynamics well in this opinion piece, including a quote from an anonymous Chinese official that articulates the PRC POV quite succinctly:
YY_Sima Qian
I guess Biden is trapped in the dysfunctional relationship w/ Netanyahu:
Do people in DC not understand how the blindingly obvious hypocrisy (see the start contrast to the ICC issuing arrest warrant for Putin) undermine the very “rules based international order” (such as it is) that they are purportedly working to uphold, & not just in the Global South?