(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick update: Rosie is doing well, though a bit wobbly from yesterday’s chemo. Which is to be expected. She’s eating and drinking, her temp is normal, she’s just a bit wobbly. Thank everyone again for their good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and/or donations. They are all appreciated.
As I began writing tonight’s updates – about 6:45 PM EDT – air raid alerts were up for Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. At 7:00 PM EDT they have gone up for Kharkiv, Donestk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. They are, as always, always up for Russian occupied Luhanks Oblast and Crimea.
Russia continues to bombard Kharkiv:
The morning in Kharkiv after a russian drone attack reveals only ruins and ashes where cozy homes stood just yesterday. pic.twitter.com/c2FZMwF1h6
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 21, 2024
Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. The bodies of civilians killed by russian troops lie in the streets of the town. https://t.co/8moE0Fhi5I
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 21, 2024
Here in Kharkiv, the region is being pummelled by #Russia 🇷🇺, and #Ukraine's 🇺🇦 soldiers tell me that they cannot adequately fight back without striking inside Russia.
In the meantime, Moscow's forces come ever closer. Why are we not allowing them to defend themselves properly? https://t.co/oFvfUUA9Fd
— David Patrikarakos (@dpatrikarakos) May 20, 2024
Does this mean that Kharkiv, which is being targeted by russian missile launches from their territory, will never be protected? https://t.co/LJ8fPYt34J
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 21, 2024
From Ukrainska Pravda:
The US has expressed its expectation that Kyiv will use the weapons it has been given to hit targets inside of Ukraine.
Source: European Pravda with reference to a statement of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin following a meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine’s Defence (Ramstein format)
Details: The US Secretary of Defence was asked whether Ukraine could use US air defence systems to strike at planes bombing Kharkiv from Russian territory.
Quote: “Our expectation is that they [Ukraine] continue to use the weapons that we’ve provided on targets inside of Ukraine,” Austin said.
The Pentagon chief noted that in this case, “the aerial dynamics are a little bit different”. However, Austin added that he did not want to speculate on this topic.
Background:
- Earlier, Victoria Nuland, former US Deputy Secretary of State, whose career was connected with Ukraine and Russia, expressed her belief that Kyiv has the right to strike military targets on Russian territory and that Washington and its allies should help it do so.
- The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine had asked the Biden administration to help identify targets in Russia that Kyiv could strike with its own weapons, and separately asked to lift restrictions on the use of US-provided weapons against military targets in Russia.
- Previously, the Pentagon said that the weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine should be used within Ukrainian territory.
Russia is using the US’s risk aversion and avoidance to their own advantage. They are massing their personnel and equipment just over the border where Ukraine and everyone else can observe them, but Ukraine cannot hit them with US supplied weapons or munitions. As a result, Russia is then able to attack over the border. Instead of being able to deter and stop, Ukraine has to wait and counterattack.
For want of a nail.
Sumy is also still being targeted:
Ukrainian firefighters extinguished a fire which occurred due to Russian attack on settlements in Sumy Oblast
The firefighters had to work at two locations simultaneously. According to preliminary information, two residential houses were hit by shelling https://t.co/0CIbMPQ746 pic.twitter.com/eQy6sV36L1
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 21, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
All the Partners are Fully Informed about Our Actual Needs and the Real Situation on the Front – Address by the President
21 May 2024 – 20:24
Dear Ukrainians!
Today, I continued our diplomatic marathon – the marathon of preparations for the Global Peace Summit, a gathering of many leaders aimed at implementing the Peace Formula that can force Russia into a just peace. Today I spoke with the leaders of Romania, Angola, and Iraq. I invited them to the Summit and informed them about the work already done for the organization of the Summit and its efficiency. The UN Charter unites all the nations, and all the states are equally interested in ensuring that the goals and principles of the UN Charter are truly a working tool for maintaining peace, in them being effective.
In addition, I discussed with the President of Romania our cooperation on security and stability in our region and the entire Europe. In particular, the defense cooperation between Ukraine and Romania. I thanked him for preparing a new defense package for our warriors. I discussed with the President of Angola the possibilities of our bilateral cooperation, and I invited Mr. President to visit Ukraine. I also spoke with the Prime Minister of Iraq about relations between our countries, about our common need – the need for maximum stability in the world. It is very important, among other things, that our export sea corridor works, and that Ukrainian food reaches the world market and prevents fatal shortages. This contributes to the stability of the Gulf region and many other parts of the world. We will continue this work, increasing, as much as possible in the face of the full-scale terrorist threat from Russia, our Ukrainian contribution to global food security. And this is also our own economic security – Ukrainian exports, Ukrainian revenues, and Ukrainian employment in many industries. I also spoke today with the President of Azerbaijan about the situation in the energy sector in our country and about cooperation between our countries in this field. Today I also met with the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Germany. I thanked her for all the support provided – Germany is one of our most important partners. We also discussed our further joint work – both in the security and political spheres and in the context of our European integration. I am grateful to Germany for understanding the importance of achieving a real result in June – the actual start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. Now everything is combined to the maximum possible extent: security issues, our defense capabilities – not only those of Ukraine but of the entire Europe, as well as diplomatic work and economic sustainability of Ukraine. Every new connection of Ukraine with the world, every strengthened communication and cooperation means additional opportunities for all of us to protect the lives of our people, our cities and communities, to ensure the strength of our army, and to bring real peace closer.
Today I received detailed reports from the Minister of Defense Umerov and the Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych on the situation on the frontline and on ensuring our defense. The Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi also delivered a report. The day before, there was a regular Ramstein format meeting – today there was a report on the work on our needs. First of all, it is air defense, armored vehicles, and shells. All partners are fully informed about our actual needs and the real situation at the front. I am grateful to each state, each leader, all the partners’ Ministers of Defense and Chiefs of Staff who are truly ready to help and fulfill the promises made. The whole content of the communication with the partners should be reflected in the content of the real combat work of our warriors – the means of destruction that are needed at the front right now, in these weeks, not sometime in the summer. The situation in the Pokrovsk direction and other Donetsk directions – Kramatorsk and Kurakhove – remains extremely difficult now, it’s where most of the combat is taking place. The Kharkiv region – our forces are destroying the occupier, and the results are tangible. I thank all our warriors for their accuracy and resilience.
I thank everyone who fights and works for our country and people! I thank everyone who enhances our defense capabilities.
Today I had an opportunity to meet with our young scientists working in various fields, as well as with the very young ones who are still planning to start their careers and planning to do so in Ukraine, which is important. I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Zelensky reiterates that Western help comes too slow, telling Reuters, @dpeleschuk & co, "Every decision to which we, then later everyone together, comes to is late by around one year."
"But it is what it is: one big step forward, but before that two steps back. So we need to…
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 21, 2024
From Reuters:
KYIV, May 20 (Reuters) – Western allies are taking too long to make key decisions on military support for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters in an exclusive in Kyiv on Monday.
He also said he was pushing partners to get more directly in the war by helping to intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine and allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons against enemy military equipment amassing near the border.
The call to accelerate aid and push so-called “red lines” of engagement in the conflict reflect the growing pressure Zelenskiy’s forces are under along more than 1,000 km of front lines in the northeast, east and south of the country.
An impassioned Zelenskiy, dressed in his familiar khaki T-shirt and trousers, said the situation on the battlefield was “one of the most difficult” he had known since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
In recent weeks Moscow’s troops have made incursions into northeastern Ukraine, further testing Kyiv’s already stretched defences. At the same time, Russia has taken territory in the eastern Donbas region in sometimes fierce battles.
“A very powerful wave (of fighting) is going on in Donbas … No-one even notices that there are actually more battles in the east of the country, specifically in the Donbas direction: Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar.”
He added, however, that the situation north of Kharkiv was now “under control”.
The 46-year-old was speaking on the fifth anniversary of his inauguration as president. He has not contested elections because of martial law imposed due to the invasion.
Zelenskiy called again for faster military aid from the United States and other partners. Weapons and ammunition from a recently passed U.S. package is now arriving in Ukraine, but it was delayed for months by internal political wrangling.
“Every decision to which we, then later everyone together, comes to is late by around one year,” said Zelenskiy.
“But it is what it is: one big step forward, but before that two steps back. So we need to change the paradigm a little bit.”
RISK OF ESCALATION?
Zelenskiy said he wanted his partners to be more directly involved in the war, but understood they were wary of antagonising Russia.
“It’s a question of will,” he said. “But everyone says a word that sounds the same in every language: everyone is scared of escalation. Everyone has gotten used to the fact that Ukrainians are dying – that’s not escalation for people.”
He proposed that the armed forces of neighbouring NATO countries could intercept incoming Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory to help Kyiv protect itself.
Russia has fired thousands of missiles and drones at Ukraine since the start of the wider conflict, and air defences are a priority for Kyiv.
“Russians are using 300 planes on the territory of Ukraine. We need at least 120, 130 planes to resist in the sky,” he said. Ukraine is waiting for the delivery of U.S.-designed F-16s which have yet to be used in anger.
He said that if countries could not supply the planes straight away, they could still fly them from neighbouring NATO states and shoot down Russian missiles.
Here’s the video of the full interview:
DC:
Today, Chairman @RepMikeTurner, head of the U.S. delegation to @NATOPAPress, Ranking Member @JAHimes, Representative @GerryConnolly, past president of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and additional Members of Congress urged @DeptofDefense to expedite resources to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/rXDjAoh7k8
— House Intelligence Committee (@HouseIntel) May 20, 2024
You know what would have expedited resources to Ukraine? Not futzing around for over a year with the Ukraine supplemental because of the dysfunctional GOP House majority caucus followed by Trump’s surrogates among the GOP Senate minority caucus doing his bidding to further slow things down in the attempt to derail the supplemental.
Here’s Tatarigami’s take via the Thread Reader App:
I am not an authorized person or official representative to make statements on behalf of the military or the entire country, but I want to share the concerns expressed by many on the frontlines, from privates to colonels. They often ask me: where is the promised aid?🧵Thread:
2/ Considering that I talk to many analysts and experts worldwide, many of my friends and acquaintances hope I can provide them with comprehensive knowledge and answers in private. However, the truth is, I don’t have an answer.3/ I might criticize my President for his mistakes, but he’s right on multiple issues. One of them is foreign aid— it’s too little, too late. It causes an effect that I coined as the “vaccination effect,” where small weapon deliveries don’t tip the balance but let the enemy adapt4/ This situation also creates an environment where battlefield failures are blamed either entirely on the US for not providing enough aid or on the Ukrainian government for poor or delayed wartime political decisions, such as delayed mobilization or lack of fortifications.5/ At this point, it’s not uncommon for me to hear theories suggesting that the West, especially the US, is deliberately withholding aid to force Ukraine into negotiations. It’s also believed that the US influences European partners, causing delays in aid from Europe as well.6/ Whether I agree with these theories or not is irrelevant. What’s more concerning is that such narratives are present among Ukrainian soldiers and officers, who do not understand why they can’t engage Russian forward bases and concentrations of forces with the provided weapons7/ One could argue that it’s not the US’s responsibility to provide more aid to Ukraine However, if that’s the case, then the leaders of the free world should be transparent about it: “This war has made you a burden, and you should handle it on your own from here”8/ Once more, I may partially agree, fully agree, or disagree with this sentiment. I aim to transmit these sentiments I’ve heard from dozens of people. The strategic miscalculations of our leadership don’t excuse our partners from their previous commitments and transparency.
Kharkiv:
Dead bodies in the streets, torture chambers, people locked in basements. Think about Vovchansk when playing with the idea "let them keep what they've already taken." pic.twitter.com/K9Fh2UAObi
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 21, 2024
Kharkiv—“Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest the Russians were probing to see if they could partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian formations to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir” https://t.co/1GtXs9eWWl
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 21, 2024
The Economist has the details:
Ten days after the start on May 10th of Russia’s offensive in Kharkiv province, the pace of the advance has slowed. For now, Ukraine is holding the Russians roughly halfway through Vovchansk—a town, just 5km from the border, that is now being turned to ashes—and at positions roughly 9km inside Ukraine further west, near Lyptsi. With an estimated 48,000 troops ready, Russia does not have the forces for a major attack on Kharkiv city, Ukraine’s second biggest. But local military leaders insist that the situation remains precarious, and could change quickly. Russian columns were halted only after several experienced brigades were redeployed and came to the rescue, one says; Vladimir Putin will “surely” try his luck by opening a new attack elsewhere in the region.
A Russian column is already forming further north in Sudzha, on the other side of the border from Sumy, a regional capital north-west of Kharkiv. Ukraine’s army is also bracing for another strike just east of Vovchansk, towards the village of Bilyi Kolodiaz. Battles have also reactivated near Kupiansk, a railway hub, with Ukraine in effect losing control of the nearby village of Berestove on May 17th.
It is still too early to be sure about the eventual aims of the Russian operation. Also on May 17th Mr Putin declared that his only intention was to create a buffer zone between Ukraine and the border city of Belgorod, insisting there was “no plan” to threaten Kharkiv itself. But this possibly reflects evolving battleground realities rather than intentions. Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest the Russians were probing to see if they could partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian formations to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir. The operation was supposedly planned for May 15th-16th but was brought forward by nearly a week for unknown reasons.
According to the plans, the Russians had identified two axes of attack on either side of the reservoir. The push on the western axis was intended, over 72 hours, to bring Russian troops to within artillery range of Kharkiv city at the village of Borshchova. They were stopped by a rapidly redeployed grouping from the elite 92nd Brigade, which pushed them back a full 10km from their initial goal. But up until that moment, the story had been about Ukraine’s poor defensive fortifications, about how the 125th Brigade that should have repelled the attack in fact fled from positions while under pressure, and about serious Ukrainian losses.
On the Vovchansk axis, further east, the Russian plan had been to fight past Anna’s father’s house on the reservoir, right down to the town of Pechenihy. The Russians initially made quick work of this operation, sweeping through an area that should have been prepared with minefields and serious engineering fortifications but wasn’t. “They were just simply allowed to walk through,” complains Denys Yaroslavsky, a special-forces officer whose social media posts on May 12th alerted the outside world to the possibility of a wider reverse. “We were watching them cut through the border fence on screens at about 11pm on May 9th, and I said to my men to watch how they would blow themselves up on mines. There were no explosions; they simply carried on.”
Many of the soldiers in Kharkiv are angry that Russia was able to advance so far so quickly. Some of them criticise delays in Western aid, which they believe encouraged Russian aggression and weakened Ukrainian defences. Others suspect that incompetence, or even treachery, played a more significant role. Conspiracy theories to the effect that politicians in Kyiv or Washington may be selling Kharkiv down the river ahead of an ugly peace deal are also circulating. Official Ukrainian narratives that present a rosy picture are not helping to calm nerves. “[President Volodymyr] Zelensky is being kept in a warm bath,” complains Mr Yaroslavsky. “We think the president should tune into the situation on the ground and not ape Putin, a man whose life revolves around the papers his aides bring him.” A government official, who asked to remain anonymous, suggests that Mr Zelensky had already sensed he might not be receiving the full truth. “That’s what he yells at his generals, at least.”
Oleksandr Husarov, the head of the Pechenigi municipality, says optimistic news reports about Ukrainian strength have themselves created different problems in the effort to evacuate people from towns near Vovchansk. When the Russians seized much of the area at the start of the war in 2022, the occupation was not as harsh as in other areas of Ukraine. Some mistakenly believe the occupation will be mild if it happens this time round too, says Mr Husarov. Even the most stubborn can be “shaken out” of that belief when they see the “burned earth” left behind by Russian glide bombs and drones, he adds. But Anna’s father remains unconvinced. Petro insists he was lucky to be home when a Russian Shahed drone smashed into it in early March; that way, he could put out the fire. He won’t be preparing an emergency suitcase, he tells his increasingly exasperated daughter, who is packing up mementoes of her childhood—documents, photographs, an antique floral table service—into carrier bags. “All of Ukraine is exploding,” he says. “Besides, where would I go?”
More at the link.
Here is Tatarigami’s take on The Economist reporting above via the Thread Reader App:
Yesterday, The Economist published an article stating that, according to military plans shared with them, Russian forces aimed to get within artillery range of Kharkiv within 72 hours and were probing to see if they could partially encircle the city. Here is why I am skeptical:2/ First and foremost, if you examine the composition of forces Russia has used in this direction, the core of the advance consisted of motor rifle regiments with limited vehicle presence. These units were advancing in the form of dispersed small tactical groups on foot mostly3/ Any deep and swift advance would require mechanized units ready to exploit breaches in defenses. Considering the article’s claim that Russian forces had 72 hours to complete their task, the absence of a capable force to execute such a strike is rather puzzling.4/ While Borshchova could have been seized by Russian forces within 72 hours, Pechenihy is over 30 km from the border at Vovchansk in a straight line. Were the Russians expected to advance 10 km daily on foot?5/ Organizing the logistics for advancing troops over such a distance would be extremely difficult given the resources available to the Russians in the area. Currently, they are struggling with supply lines in the Hlyboke area, which is less than 10 km from the border.6/ Overall, after the painful experience of the initial phase of the 2022 invasion, Russian forces have since focused on creeping advances, frontline widening, and tactical flanking maneuvers instead of attempting swift advances into operational depth7/ While it might be tempting to dismiss this as a simple miscalculation by the command, akin to the “Kyiv in 3 days”, my personal experience working with Russian plans and documents suggests that russian forces know their logistical limitations and plan much better than before8/ In my opinion, based on the actions and composition of forces, it appeared to be a probing attack with the goal of diverting Ukrainian forces (which it successfully achieved) from Donbas. Due to initial successes, the Russians became more confident in the Kharkiv region.9/ In turn, this can still transform from a probing and diversionary attack into a main axis. Considering the aforementioned factors, I remain skeptical of the idea that anyone seriously considered the deployed forces to be sufficient to partially encircle Kharkiv within 72 hours10/ Thank you for taking the time to read my thread! If you enjoyed it, I would greatly appreciate it if you could consider liking and sharing the first message of the thread to help boost its visibility.You can also support me via tips:
sdf
The below video shows what Russia’s massive glide bombs look like when they strike. They’re devastating weapons made from old dumb bombs modernized with pop-out wings and guidance systems. And they are launched by Russian planes from upwards of 60km away and in some cases — like… https://t.co/XgwcaMnV9D
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 21, 2024
The below video shows what Russia’s massive glide bombs look like when they strike. They’re devastating weapons made from old dumb bombs modernized with pop-out wings and guidance systems. And they are launched by Russian planes from upwards of 60km away and in some cases — like around Kharkiv — from inside Russian territory.
Here’s my @FT story about these terrifying weapons: Russian ‘glide bombs’ pound Ukrainian troops and towns https://on.ft.com/4aBzPYo
In the Vovchans'k direction, paratroopers of the 82nd Separate Air Assault brigade successfully repel enemy offensives.
Recently, the Chernivtsi paratroopers have already destroyed about two companies of enemy personnel. There are a lot of enemies in this direction, but they are… pic.twitter.com/s9ygVDIFG2
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) May 21, 2024
In the Vovchans’k direction, paratroopers of the 82nd Separate Air Assault brigade successfully repel enemy offensives.
Recently, the Chernivtsi paratroopers have already destroyed about two companies of enemy personnel. There are a lot of enemies in this direction, but they are quickly running out.
Sumy Oblast:
⚡️ Border Guard: Russian offensive in Sumy Oblast can't be ruled out.
Russia has "certain units" on the border with Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, and an attack in this sector "can never be ruled out," State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko told RFE/RL on May 21.
Read… pic.twitter.com/QRvDMiG6XL
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 21, 2024
⚡️ Border Guard: Russian offensive in Sumy Oblast can’t be ruled out.
Russia has “certain units” on the border with Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, and an attack in this sector “can never be ruled out,” State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko told RFE/RL on May 21.
Read also: https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-russian-offensive-in-sumy-oblast-cant-be-ruled-out/
📷 Kostiantyn Liberov/ Libkos/Getty Images
Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:
Russia has “certain units” on the border with Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, and an attack in this sector “can never be ruled out,” State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) on May 21.
Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, suggested in mid-May that Russian forces may launch an offensive in Sumy Oblast similar to the ongoing one in Kharkiv Oblast when the conditions are more favorable.
Russia may try to attack the region even if it lacks the forces, Demchenko said.
“It is in order to stretch the front line, the line of active combat operations, and actually stretch (Ukraine’s) defense forces,” he added.
“We also need to understand that the length of the border with our enemy is quite large. It is more than 560 kilometers (around 350 miles) in Sumy Oblast alone.”
Ukraine should be prepared for “any situations” and continue to build up its defense capabilities, Demchenko said.
Since the Russian-occupied parts of Sumy Oblast were liberated in early April 2022, the region has been experiencing daily shelling and attacks from across the border, as it is located on Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia.
Ukrainian authorities ordered further evacuations from the region amid intensified attacks.
❗️ At any moment, the enemy can do in the Sumy direction what it is doing in the Kharkiv direction, – State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
"The enemy can at any time, even though it does not have sufficient forces, try to do something similar to what is happening in Kharkiv… pic.twitter.com/5WSWpHSXvF
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 21, 2024
The rest of the Geraschenko tweet is just a long excerpt from The Economist article.
Bilohorivka, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
Окупанти продовжують використовувати тактику випаленої землі на Донбасі
На відео ви можете бачити російський обстріли в районі селища Білогорівка, Луганщина із застосуванням великої кількості РСЗВ "Град" та ТОС "Солнцепьок" (рівень інтенсивністі бачите самі)⬇️ pic.twitter.com/B1qVeLkFBm— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) May 21, 2024
Here’s the machine translation:
The occupiers continue to use scorched earth tactics in Donbas
In the video, you can see Russian shelling in the area of the village of Bilogorivka, Luhansk region, using a large number of Grad anti-aircraft missiles and Solntsepok rocket launchers (you can see the level of intensity yourself) ⬇️
Chasiv Yar:
Our defense forces continue to repel russian attacks near Chasiv Yar.
📹: 41st Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/R6L9tB5yZ9
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 21, 2024
Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:
The russian Black Sea Fleet lost a warship again!
As a result of the attack on May 19, Ukrainian defenders hit a "Cyclone" Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette.
There is no place for russian scrap metal in Ukrainian Crimea! pic.twitter.com/riARGXk3p6— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 21, 2024
Confirmed!
/3. It’s supposed by the source, that the rescue boat of project 23370 is located at the place where the Cyclone/Kovrovets were supposed to be. These are intended for search, rescue and underwater technical work in ports and in the coastal sea zone.https://t.co/W9t68DmriK pic.twitter.com/UJgQjAM3lZ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 21, 2024
Here’s the full text of the tweet numbered 2 above:
2. First satellite imagery of the location of the reported strike on Russian Project 266M Kovrovets and Project 22800 Cyclone in the Sevastopol harbour.
There is a damage to the building visible as a result of the strike. However Cyclone and Kovrovets are nowhere to be seen. They have not yet been found in the entire Sevastopol Bay area.
https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/8443
The Kinburn Peninsula:
Video published by Russian source. As said, Ukrainian naval drone launching unguided missiles in the direction of Russian positions on the Kinburn Peninsula, Mykolaiv/Kherson region. https://t.co/KG5kmIkvzU pic.twitter.com/HVxLXn3ybN
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 21, 2024
Moscow, via Tucker Carlson’s home studio, which I think is in Maine:
Tucker Carlson – Russian propaganda tool, now officially.
Russia-24, state-owned Russian-language news channel, is banned in Ukraine, Moldova, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. https://t.co/EXDFIR52ys pic.twitter.com/v5cojB1Rlo
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 21, 2024
Also, Moscow:
❗️Russian authorities have made a unilateral decision to change the sea borders of Russia with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. This follows from the draft government resolution published on the portal of legal acts of the Russian Federation.
According to the document…
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 21, 2024
❗️Russian authorities have made a unilateral decision to change the sea borders of Russia with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. This follows from the draft government resolution published on the portal of legal acts of the Russian Federation.
According to the document drafted by the Russian defense ministry, Russia intends to declare part of the water area in the east of the Gulf of Finland, as well as near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region as its internal sea waters.
To do that, geographic coordinates of the points that determine the position of the baselines from which the width of the territorial sea of the Russian Federation is measured, as well as the adjacent zone off the coast and islands will be changed.
🔹At the border with Finland, Russian government intends to correct the coordinates in the area of the islands of Yahi, Sommers, Holland, Rodsher, Maly Tyuters, Vigrund, as well as near the northern entrance cape of the Narva River, follows from the appendix to the Cabinet of Ministers.
🔹On the border with Lithuania, the area of the Curonian Spit in the Gulf of Gdansk, the areas of Cape Taran, the cape south of Cape Taran, as well as the Baltic Spit came under review.
The current geographical coordinates established by the USSR Council of Ministers in 1985 “do not fully correspond to the modern geographical situation,” the authors of the project claim. The points were recorded “using small-scale maritime navigation charts,” which, in turn, were based on works from the mid-20th century, and this “does not allow us to determine the external boundary of the internal sea waters” of the Russian Federation, the document says.
As a result of the changes, “a previously absent system of straight baselines will be established on the southern part of the Russian islands in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, as well as in the area of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk, allowing the corresponding water areas to be used as internal sea waters of the Russian Federation; The passage of the State border of the Russian Federation at sea will change due to a change in the position of the external border of the territorial sea,” the authors of the project explained.
The 40-year-old resolution of the USSR Council of Ministers regulating the borders in the Baltic Sea is proposed by the Ministry of Defense to be partially “recognized as ineffective” (section “Baltic Sea”).
Here’s more from The Kyiv Independent:
Russia has unilaterally moved to change the maritime border with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea, according to the decree published on the Russian government’s website.
Lithuania and Finland have not yet reacted to Russia’s decision toward the maritime border, nor has Russia’s unilateral decision been recognized internationally.
Russia intends toappropriate inland sea waters in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland and near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenodradsk in Kaliningrad Oblast, according to a decree prepared by the Russian Defense Ministry.
Through the decree, Russia aims to change the geographic coordinates, which measure the width of the Russian territorial sea and the area near the coastline and the islands.
Russia intends to change the geographic coordinates near the Sommers, Jahi, Rodsher, Malyi Tyuters, Vigrund, and Gogland islands, as well as the north cape on the Narva River near the state border with Finland.
In its proposed changes, Russia also reconsidered the areas near the Curonian and Vistula splits and the Taran Cape on the border with Lithuania.
The decree read that the previous geographic coordinates were allegedly registered relying on small-scale marine navigation maps, which were based on 20th-century research and “do not allow to determine the external border of the internal sea waters” of Russia.
The valid geographic coordinates, established by a decree of the USSR Ministers Council in 1985, “do not fully correspond to the current geographic situation,” the document read.
Now we wait to see what Lithuania and Finland do.
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
japa21
What, exactly, would the US do if Ukraine used weapons to hit, say, 10-15 miles inside Russia?
Sally
This is so heartbreaking. I listen to the podcast, Ukraine: The Latest. They interviewed soldiers who said they watched as Ru amassed forces, barely over the border, and could do nothing. To have to watch, knowing people will be slaughtered, homes destroyed, when a few well targeted missiles, and the threat of more, would protect them. It’s … a crime against humanity.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: The options would be to stop sending them. Or withhold intel sharing. Or freeze other funding. Or freeze orders for future military equipment. Lots of things that the US could do. The question is what the Biden administration would actually do.
japa21
@Adam L Silverman: And that is the reason for my question. Lots of “coulds”. What matters is the “would”.
SomeRandomGuy
Robert Heinlein was fond of stating that no “department of defense” wins a war – you win the war by making the other guy hurt, until your demands seem reasonable.
Does Putin love his military folks enough that losing them will cause him to say “whoops, decided we don’t need a W here after all…”? Probably not. So sooner or later, there’s going to need to be some allowance for Ukraine to punch back effectively. I hope Biden recognizes that.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: There has beens surprisingly limited coverage of the ongoing IDF offensive into Rafah. The Israeli government insists that they will expand the offensive to destroy Hamas’ remaining organizational structure, even though Hamas has been moving to reestablish control over other areas in Gaza as soon as the IDF withdraws, so it’s a Whack-a-Mole. In the meantime, the Biden Administration is insisting that the IDF offensive remains “limited” & does not cross the red line that Biden has drawn, but is “watching w/ concern”.
One hopes that the Biden Administration is not moving goal posts so as to avoiding having to enforce its own red line against the Israeli government. Meanwhile, Biden’s over the top statement on the ICC issuing arrest warrants to both Hamas & Israeli leaderships, specifically the warrant on Netanyahu, is self-sabotage on multiple fronts.
Harrison Wesley
@YY_Sima Qian: Never ones to miss opportunities (for chaos, not for anything constructive), the Republicans as embodied in Elise Stefanik have denounced Peacenik Hamas-Lover Joe to the Knesset. As usual, nothing helpful, just something to jerk the Democrats around with.
Martin
The struggle I have with problems like this is that when I look at the problem, and look at the proposed contribution to the problem, I ask myself ‘will this solve it?’ and if the answer is ‘no’, then what the fucking point? It feels performative. If you want the problem solved, then solve the fucking problem (provided it can be). If you don’t want to solve the problem then just admit you don’t want to solve the problem.
I don’t take any great comfort in having helped someone lose more slowly.
I know the world doesn’t work like that, but that’s the hole I get myself stuck in. I just want us to roll F-35s and wrap this up by Independence Day. I know that’s not helpful or how it works.
Adam, your steadfastness here is really admirable.
lashonharangue
Thanks Adam. Quite a while back Sec. Austin said the goal was to degrade Russia’s military. That statement was quickly walked back. Rather than timidity or incompetence, could this really be the strategic goal? In other words, to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian? Am I being too cynical?
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: At the same time it seems the WH has made public the decisions that were available to Bibi in order to highlight that he rejected the options that would reduce civilian casualties and allow for humanitarian aid. The ICC could see the results for themselves, but the motive comes from the options available, and that’s all leaked out pretty clearly the last several weeks.
Melancholy Jaques
@YY_Sima Qian:
Is that like the US and the Taliban?
Another Scott
I haven’t seen this reported anywhere else yet. KyivIndependent.com:
VVP and TIFG seem to have the same disease – they like breaking previous agreements, understandings, norms, etc.
Moves like these should be expected, and I’m sure smart folks in NATO have been thinking about things like this since well before the recent expansion.
Bears watching.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott:
Scroll up.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: D’Oh!
Sorry.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Melancholy Jaques: The US & Coalitions forces expended a huge amount of resources on the Afghan “national” government in Kabul, regional powers that be, local tribal leaders, & their own forces stationed across the different regions, to establish sustainable & credible governing structures that would inhibit the Taliban’s ability to maintain a presence or even a shadow government. That their strategies were doom to failure does not mean they did not expend huge resources to make the effort.
The IDF & the Israeli government has not made any effort to stand up a new governing authority to replace the Hamas, or to temporarily take on the responsibility itself as the occupying power should, per international law. The IDF is leaving lawless vacuums behind. Where the Hamas or the PIJ has not reemerged, it is the criminal gangs running things.
The refusal to take on the responsibilities of an occupying power, among many other Israeli actions, is ipso facto crime under international law.
YY_Sima Qian
@Harrison Wesley: Own the Ds/Libs/Lefties is all most of the GOP reactionaries live for. That is the very definition of “reactionary”.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: I don’t think the ICC needs any 3-D chess assist from the Administration to charge the Israeli political leadership (notable that arrest warrants have yet to be issued to IDF leadership), the Israeli leadership & IDF soldiers are doing a bang up job documenting their crimes on Israeli MSM & social media. Honestly, I doubt the Biden Administration is play 3-D chess wrt the War in Gaza. I believe Biden is genuinely offended at deepest level that anyone, let alone one w/ international standing, could accuse Israel of committing war crimes, crimes against humanity, or genocide (facts be damned), & that such accusations will help justify anti-Semitism & anti-Zionism around the world (not wrong here, but Israel has agency over its actions).
I can only conclude, assessing the Administration’s actions & rhetoric since 10/7, & reporting sourced from the inside of the Administration as well as former officials who should have some insight into the thinking of key administration officials (including Biden), that Biden has a mental blind spot when it comes to Israel: for him, Israel is forever the plucky underdog of ’67 & ’73, forever in danger of being exterminated by malevolent neighbors.
SomeRandomGuy
@YY_Sima Qian: I saw some analysis that suggested, by *not* offering amnesty to non-violent Taliban government workers, they lost the chance to subvert those people, and, worse, they made government less effective. The same thing (I heard) happened in Iraq.
And, it’s like, yeah, you don’t want the mass murderer who is also a tax collector, but you *do* want the nonviolent revenue agents to stick around, and back the winners, because you need funding, and so forth, for all the other functions of government (which require good revenue collection).
Most of the people holding bureaucracy jobs for the Taliban likely joined up for steady income and respect; give them those when you win, and then, before a counterrevolution will succeed, the Taliban, or the Baathists, need to give them more than the status quo – a LOT more, for them to become criminals, and possibly lose their cushy government jobs.
YY_Sima Qian
@SomeRandomGuy: They could have taken some lessons from the post-WW II reconstruction of Germany & Japan.
On a side note, De-Nazification was never quite as thorough as in popular perception, especially when the Cold War w/ the Soviet Block became the organizing principle of US foreign policy. In the case of Japan, it was far less thorough than even Germany, plenty of war criminals who should have been hanged for their crimes were laundered into persons of eminence in the new governments (Shinzo Abe’s grandfather, for one), in part to help suppress the rising Left Wing/Socialist movement there in the 50s.
Roberto el oso
@YY_Sima Qian: Although the trials went on for a few years after the Nuremberg sessions, they petered out rather quickly.
Ulrike Meinhof, prior to going underground with the Baader-Meinhoff group, made her name as an independent journalist exposing just how many former Nazis remained in positions of power, as bankers, businessmen, newspaper publishers, and politicians.
Jay
@SomeRandomGuy:
@YY_Sima Qian:
It was actually worse than that.
The Talibs (fighters, Tribal leaders, taxmen, etc) were given amnesty, other than the top leadership.
They went home and waited to see what would happen.
Because the CIA/Et Al couldn’t find any senior leaders of AQ in Afghanistan, (duh, they were in Pakistan and the Gulf States) they started doing “no knock” raids on “Talibs”
The “Talibs” ranged from being actual Tribal leaders, to innocent cab drivers and neighbors. “Funny” things happen when you have a poorly run bounty system.
Of course, in the “no knock raids”, lots of innocent people got killed, because “who the hell are these guys raiding our village?”. Family members, etc.
Then of course, if they actually got a so called “Talib”, step 1 was torture.
So of course, the Afghans dug up their guns again.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Yutsano
@SomeRandomGuy:
Don’t judge what I do on the weekends…
Also too, FYWP.
YY_Sima Qian
@Roberto el oso: I had not known that about Ulrike Meinhof!
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Different kinds of war crimes, more of which are now coming out.
Geminid
@Harrison Wesley: While Rep. Stefanik says she denounced Joe Biden to the Knesset, she in fact adressed 40 people, including three Knesset members, in a conference room at the Knesset building.
YY_Sima Qian
WTF?!
I said yesterday that Biden’s statement in response to the ICC issuing arrest warrant to Netanyahu is exercising self-sabotage, geopolitically & to some degree in domestic politics, but working w/ the reactionary/nativist/militarist GOP in Congress to pass legislation to sanction the ICC is really jumping the shark.
What is this “rules based international order” that the Administration waxes so eloquently all about again?
For a representative voice from the Global South, the liberal leaning one once predisposed to be favorable to the West, remains committed to universal values espoused by Western politicians, & remains deeply skeptical/critical of the authoritarians running their countries:
gene108
@Another Scott:
Western Europe is at best sticking its collective head in the sand and hoping Russia gives up in Ukraine or is satisfied with taking Ukraine.
There’s no good reason Britain, France, and Germany could not have significantly increased their defense production in support of Ukraine compared to what they have done.
My guess is NATO is in a panic mode trying to figure what to do without any sort of military response, like naval ships enforcing the current legal maritime boundaries.
gene108
@YY_Sima Qian:
It’s collective Western guilt over the Holocaust. Biden’s generation grew up with the Never Again ethos and the guilt their parents and grandparents had about “how could we let this happen and not do more?”
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: My understanding is that the US is expressing the view that the ICC process is only for countries and conflicts without functioning internal court systems. Israel clearly has that. (Gaza doesn’t now.). It’s a view with some logic to it, even if one thinks that Israel is destroying Gaza and intentionally killing tens of thousands of innocents as collective punishment, and Hamas committed atrocities to goad Israel into it.
Maybe the ICC prosecutor will step back and try a different approach.
We all know that Israel’s leadership isn’t going to be sent to the Hague anytime soon (and probably not the Hamas leadership either – Israel will want to take them out). Performative events aren’t justice either.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
Here’s an acerbic (Israeli) piece on the Israeli system/infrastructure for investigating and prosecuting war crimes. TL;DR: Nope. Similar pieces have appeared in e.g. Haaretz.
The odds of a violent Israeli soldier facing charges? Under 1 percent – New data shows how the Israeli army’s complaints mechanism serves as a facade of accountability when it comes to soldiers who harm Palestinians. (972mag, Dan Owen, December 29, 2022)
The first three paragraphs are at the link. Emphasis mine:
(To be clear, the current Israeli government is not nearly as bad as Bashar al-Assad, who has racked up an impressive kill count with help from the Russians, both military and political.)
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott:
That is the legalistic view out of the Administration, but Biden’s & Blinken’s comments are not based on legalistic interpretation, but assertions of values judgment that Israel & Hamas should never be spoken in the same breath (even though that is not what the ICC is saying).
In any case, I don’t think Israeli courts are investigating war crimes or crimes against humanity committed by either the Israeli government or the IDF in Gaza, so the courts are not functioning here. That is the justification that the ICC had used to issue arrest warrants for members of the GWB Administrations for its war crimes during the GWOT, because US courts were not holding (& still have not held) these officials to account.’
& even if the Biden Administration believes that the ICC has not legal standing here, that still does not justify supporting legislation sanctioning the ICC.
If the “rules based international order” does not rest on international law & its supporting international institutions, then what are the rules & who enforces them? Whatever the US advocates at any given moment to advance whichever administration’s understanding of short/medium term US geopolitical interests does not a “rules based international order” make.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: I wonder what the percentage has been through the current Israeli war of vengeance.
taumaturgo
@gene108: Does the corrupting money from AIPAC a factor, and important factor?
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: I think it’s both. They’re making the legalistic argument while also saying that the two sides are in no-way equivalent.
Made me look… Rome Statute.pdf (89 page .pdf).
IANAL, but it seems to be the case that they can assert jurisdiction even if one of the parties have a functioning legal system – so the legalistic argument seems pretty weak. (I’ve only skimmed it though.) Of course, being a legal document agreed by dozens and dozens of countries (and influenced by countries that never ratified it), I’m sure there are loopholes for any occasion. :-/
To be clear: IMO, the ICC can be and should be an important institution. But performative indictments that don’t acutally lead to a sensible trial will increase cynicism. As always, big countries throw their weight around if they don’t like it. If indictments are handed down, I don’t expect it to actually affect things very much. (VVP still travels the world without issues.) Biden’s been around long enough to know where the bodies and minefields are. He knows the big picture matters, and beating up on Bibi in private is the way to move things closer to an end of hostilities and towards two states.
Israel needs to end this, and that means Israeli voters need to do the work to vote the monsters out.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
taumaturgo
@taumaturgo: *an (correction)
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
I’ve tried poking at that question (of current-war Israeli investigations/prosecutions for war crimes) several times, and the search results are heavily polluted and agenda-filtered. (And I don’t read modern Hebrew.) Also, the Israeli military censorship and propaganda is blatant, and Hamas is similarly not trustworthy (excepting the health authority lists of names/identity numbers/sex/ages of the dead).
The Israeli argument that the Israeli military is the most ethical in the world rests mostly on the lack of convictions for war crimes; i.e. there is surely pressure to keep the number of convictions very very low.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott:
No one took that tack when the ICC issued arrest warrants to VVP. As you say, he is still free to travel to most parts of the world outside of the West.
Considering the Biden Administration’s foreign policy decisions & actions wrt Ukraine (except for the period leading up to the current invasion & the few months after, during which I think they did quite well), Gaza (bent over backwards to give Israel public cover, destroying the last bit of credibility that the “Rules Based International Order” had outside of the West), the NK (letting the nuclear crisis fester w/o making any diplomatic investment), the PRC (still sliding toward a new Cold War that undermines the decades long “East Asian Peace” & creates fertile soil for nativist reactionary authoritarianism domestically, again the CPC leadership has been equally culpable here), the Global South engagement in general (tone deaf, obtuse, centered on the Great Power Competition w/ the PRC or Russia rather than the needs & aspirations of the Global South countries themselves), & international trade (continued & has now escalated Trump’s damaging trade war w/ the PRC, rendered the WTO dysfunctional & legitimized economic nationalism into the bipartisan mainstream), I have no confidence that the Biden Administration or the DC “strategic class” in general appreciates the big picture. They are still trying their best to recreate the US unipolar moment of the 90s, or the decisive strategic advantage of the 50s, when the world has already changed.
Given that the tone deafness & obtuseness in the US’ engagements w/ the Global South has persisted through at least 4 administrations (GWB, Obama, Trump & now Biden), it is certainly not unique to the Biden Administration.
& what of the Gazans in the meantime? This is not how any fair & just “rules based international order” should work.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: I think the best one can say is that the ICC prosecutors have made applications for arrest warrants, & the rhetoric of the Biden Administration is attempting to pressure the court into not issuing the warrants. If the ICC folds under intense US pressure, that certainly will do nothing for its credibility.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Yes, the situation in Gaza is too critical to solve by an Israeli election held weeks from now. Right now the US has to exert maximum pressure on the Israeli government as it is currently constituted.