Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Somebody needs to explain to DeSantis that nobody needs to do anything to make him look bad.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

The revolution will be supervised.

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

I desperately hope that, yet again, I am wrong.

You can’t love your country only when you win.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 821: The Russian Bombardments Continue as Putin Announces His Terms

War for Ukraine Day 821: The Russian Bombardments Continue as Putin Announces His Terms

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note. First, Rosie is still doing well. Just minimal/mild systemic side effects from her chemo treatment last Monday. Second, the issue with embedding tweets appears to be that up through Thursday I could still use the twitter.com URLs. Now, they all resolve to x.com URLs. If I go back to Thursday’s post and copy and paste those twitter.com URLs, they’ll still embed. Cole has come up with a workaround, which is to use the embed code and text mode for drafting, so we’re going to go with that and see how well it works until WordPress catches up to the changes. Please note, I have never done a post using the text versus the visual editor, so if spacing is wrong, it’s wrong because of that.

This is part of the cost of Russia’s renewed bombardments!

“They want the world to see that each number in this war represents real faces, not statistics,” wrote the photographers who captured this image of a grieving family mourning Anzhelika, who, with her unborn child, died in a russian missile attack on Kharkiv. Increasingly, however, it feels like the world is watching russia’s war in Ukraine as if it were a movie unfolding in real time, passively consuming the horror and allowing the violence to continue. A distinct vibe of the Black Mirror.

📷Libkos/IG

The Russians were bombarding Kharkiv as recently as an hour ago:

Sumy Oblast is also still under the gun:

Here’s the machine translation:

Residents of Sumy Oblast continue to evacuate from border settlements.
In particular, today the residents of Bilopil took the help of rescuers to get to a safer place by evacuation transport.
People are supported by psychologists of the State Emergency Service.
Let’s hold on!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Putin Not Only Wants to Disrupt the Peace Summit, but He Is Also Afraid of What the Summit Can Bring – Address by the President

24 May 2024 – 21:00

Dear Ukrainians!

It has been a long day. This morning, I was in Kharkiv. I visited the site of a Russian missile strike on one of the largest Ukrainian publishing complexes. It’s absolutely terrible – people were killed. My condolences to the families and friends. Many people were injured. Also, books were burnt by the strike, and equipment was destroyed. The destruction of this printing facility alone resulted in the loss of about a third of the annual book production in the country. Russian terror constantly proves that its goal is the complete destruction of Ukraine and all life here on our land, of everything that lets people be human. We will do everything to defend our state and to hold the Russian evil accountable for what it has done. Today, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and the authorities of the Kharkiv region have received all the necessary instructions to help restore the work of the printing facility in Kharkiv. The industry also needs support at the state level. And please – if you have the opportunity – be sure to support our Ukrainian book publishers and Ukrainian authors. This is important. The terrorists will definitely get our response to this attack.

I held a security meeting in Kharkiv with reports from the military, heads of special services, regional and city authorities. Now our warriors have managed to take combat control of the border area, where the Russian occupiers have entered. And I am grateful to each unit that ensures the necessary results of destroying the occupier. Today we also discussed our next tasks, taking into account the information from the intelligence. Putin not only wants to disrupt the Peace Summit, and tries to do a lot for this purpose, but he is also afraid of what the Summit can bring. The world is capable of forcing Russia into peace and into compliance with international security norms. Russia has nothing to oppose the world majority: despite all of Putin’s lies, he depends on his environment – in the broad sense of this word. He also depends on the international environment. No one in the world is interested in this war, except the aggressor, and everyone is actually aware of this. The Peace Summit is a format that will not allow Putin to lie anymore. And without his lies, he is absolutely nothing. And I thank everyone in the world who is helping us organize the Summit and who is showing their leadership to bring real peace closer.

Today I spoke with the President of Côte d’Ivoire and invited him to the Peace Summit, and I am grateful for his willingness to participate. I also met today with the Marshal of the Senate of Poland – I thanked her for the support, told her about the situation in Ukraine and, of course, we discussed our preparations for the Summit. I am grateful to everyone who supports Ukraine and a real honest peace!

I thank everyone who fights and works for our country and people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Why are Russian “sources” suddenly telling the media that Putin is willing to halt the war at the current battle lines? It’s simple.

Putin is desperately trying to derail the Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15–16. He is scared of its success. His entourage sends these phony signals of alleged readiness for a cease-fire despite the fact that Russian troops continue to brutally attack Ukraine while their missiles and drones rain down on Ukrainian cities and communities.

Putin currently has no desire to end his aggression against Ukraine. Only the principled and united voice of the global majority can force him to choose peace over war. This is what the Peace Summit is intended to achieve. This is why he is so afraid of it.

And this is why it is critical to have as many leaders as possible from all continents and parts of the world present. When the entire world speaks out in support of restoring the full force of the UN Charter and international law, Russia will be forced to choose peace.

Reuters has the details of what Putin is actually offering:

MOSCOW/LONDON, May 24 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.

Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin’s entourage, said the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he views as Western-backed attempts to stymie negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s decision to rule out talks.
“Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war,” said another of the four, a senior Russian source who has worked with Putin and has knowledge of top level conversations in the Kremlin.

He, like the others cited in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity given the matter’s sensitivity.
For this account, Reuters spoke to a total of five people who work with or have worked with Putin at a senior level in the political and business worlds. The fifth source did not comment on freezing the war at the current frontlines.

Asked about the Reuters report at a news conference in Belarus on Friday, Putin said peace talks should restart.

“Let them resume,” he said, adding that negotiations should be based on “the realities on the ground” and on a plan agreed during a previous attempt to reach a deal in the first weeks of the war. “Not on the basis of what one side wants,” he said.

More at the link.

This all part of the subversion line of effort of Putin and Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine. Which is why Yanukovych is part of Putin’s entourage in Belarus.

And we have an update regarding Yanukovych and how Putin handled him in 2014:

From The Insider:

Accused of working with the Russian security services, Latvian MEP Tatjana Ždanoka mockingly donned sunglasses at a press conference — as if in a spy movie. The accusations won’t be laughed off that easily: Re:Baltica has obtained almost 19,000 of Ždanoka’s e-mails detailing how she served the Kremlin.

By the end of January 2014, Kyiv was simmering with unrest in the wake of President Viktor Yanukovych’s about-face on a key issue that helped win him the election four years earlier. Bowing to Kremlin pressure, he’d decided against signing an association agreement with the European Union, a stepping stone for Ukraine’s greater integration with the West. Protestors swarmed and occupied the Maidan, Kyiv’s central square, demanding Yanukovych make good on his promise.

He didn’t.

On 16 January, the president signed a group of laws limiting people’s freedoms to hold protest rallies, thus prompting outpourings of anger that led to the first Ukrainian casualties in clashes with the security police.

On 28 January, the European Parliament (EP) dispatched an emergency fact-finding delegation. Several members of the body met with Yanukovych, Ukrainian opposition groups, and church leaders. Upon their return 48 hours later, on January 30, the delegation briefed their colleagues in Strasbourg, who adopted a resolution calling on the government to stop street repressions and release detained protestors and political prisoners.

Tatjana Ždanoka, an MEP from Latvia, was one of the delegates sent to Kyiv. But she did not report her findings to other legislators from the European Parliament. Instead, she sent a confidential report to her FSB handler Sergey Beltyukov, stating her view that anti-Yanukovych demonstrators, already two months in, were unlikely to disband in the near future. Three days before the trip to Kyiv, Ždanoka traveled to St. Petersburg and met Beltyukov, who had waited for her at the airport.

“My impressions are contradictory,” Ždanoka wrote to Beltyukov at his burner email account on February 6. “Yanukovych is too cunning to be unraveled in the course of a 1.5-hour conversation. But the feeling is that he is ready for a forceful scenario… On the other hand, some observers are inclined to believe that Yanukovych will sign a treaty with the EU very soon, getting maximum bonuses from all sides. He looked quite cheerful, calm and confident in his meeting with us on Monday. I thought he should have been more confused… [A]s far as the Maidan is concerned — where we walked on Sunday late in the evening, my feelings are mixed: some mixture of farce, drama, horror and comedy (with a preponderance of the third component in this list). It’s not going to all dissipate that easily.”

The same day, Beltyukov replied succinctly: “Thank you!!!”

It is not clear what Beltyukov, an officer of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), did with this private intelligence report from a member of the European Parliament (MEP), nor what role it may have played in shaping the Kremlin’s measures in the following days. However, two weeks later the FSB dispatched its own delegation to Kyiv, led by Sergey Beseda, the head of the organization’s Fifth Service, its foreign intelligence arm. Their mission was to pressure Yanukovych not to entertain an accommodation with the protesters, but rather to crack down harder on them. The following evening would see the bloodiest hours of Ukraine’s Euromaidan Revolution, with at least 21 protesters killed by snipers. By the end of February 2014, the embattled Ukrainian president would defect to Russia, and Russia would mount a stealth invasion and seizure of Crimea, kick-starting a war that, through periods of intensification and lulls, continues to the present day.

In January, The Insider, along with its investigative partner Re:Baltica, reported that Ždanoka, whose pro-Russian sentiments were hardly secret to begin with, had been an agent of the FSB for the better part of a decade. Those findings were based on a small tranche of emails of her correspondence with Beltyukov and another FSB handler. In response to our story, the European Parliament opened an inquiry that ultimately led to “sanctions” in the amount of €1,750 to be placed on Ždanoka. Her activities as an MEP were also limited. A Latvian State Security Service (VDD) investigation is ongoing.

The Insider and Re:Baltica can now reveal more of Ždanoka’s connivance with Russian intelligence, based on an even larger tranche of her correspondence with Putin’s spies. Specifically, Ždanoka corresponded with Beltyukov from 2013 until 2017, according to the almost 19,000 emails The Insider and Re:Baltica have examined. She also communicated with another FSB case officer, Dmitry Gladey, her longtime contact and first handler from the Fifth Service.

Much, much, much more at the link!

Here’s Illia Ponomarenko’s take:

I am absolutely convinced that Putin indeed wants a ceasefire to just stop at where he is in Ukraine and freeze the war — because he’s doing just fine, Kharkiv is about to fall, Odesa and Kyiv is next, Ukraine is doomed, he and Russia are as strong as never before, and Western aid makes no difference here.

It’s definitely not because he needs a comfortable pause in hostilities to regroup and give its military production to recoup the gigantic losses he sustains in Ukraine — and then attack again in a much better shape to crush and occupy the whole of Ukraine finally.

It’s not that Putin’s military is still spending months to seize several desolated towns in Ukraine’s east, despite the gargantuan resources allocated for a total war that lasts more than two years.

Putin is surely sending us a complex message of peace and goodwill that we just don’t fully understand yet.

I mean, he’s a man of his word, so this is definitely a genuine chance to de-escalate if we keep our minds open for a different view, as well as for Vladimir Putin’s legitimate security concerns we should be respectful towards.

Speaking of Putin’s subversion campaign.

Sweden:

Germany:

Germany has delivered another IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine, which arrived today.

Modern air defense systems are crucial in saving the lives of the Ukrainian people from russian terror.

We express our deep gratitude to our German partners for their unwavering support!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪

According to SPIEGEL, Germany handed over the fourth IRIS-T SLM air defence system to #Ukraine today. The air defence system was originally announced for April, while the delivery was later postponed to May. Eight more have been announced for the future.

Additional aid from… pic.twitter.com/3cw6hJ5B4A

— German Aid to Ukraine 🇩🇪🤝🇺🇦 (@deaidua) May 24, 2024

We are grateful to our German friends for another military aid package for Ukraine, which includes:
◾️10 Leopard 1A5 tanks
◾️20 MG3 for Leopard 2, Marder and Dachs
◾️8,500 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️20 Vector reconnaissance drones
◾️34 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones
◾️1… pic.twitter.com/1fPdSPRNgq

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 24, 2024

We are grateful to our German friends for another military aid package for Ukraine, which includes:
◾️10 Leopard 1A5 tanks
◾️20 MG3 for Leopard 2, Marder and Dachs
◾️8,500 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️20 Vector reconnaissance drones
◾️34 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones
◾️1 Beaver bridge-laying tank
◾️1 Dachs armored engineer vehicle
◾️1 Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicle
◾️4 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️2 mine ploughs
◾️400 LED lamps
◾️16 Zetros tankers
◾️540 MK 556 assault rifles
◾️80 HLR 338 precision rifles with 60,000 rounds ammunition
◾️111 CR 308 rifles
◾️1.8 million rounds of ammunition for fire arms

Vielen Dank!
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

The US:

Today,
@DeptofDefense
announced a new security assistance package valued at $275 million to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs.

The capabilities in this announcement include:
* Ammunition for HIMARS;
* 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
* 60mm mortar rounds;
* Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
* Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
* Precision aerial munitions;
* Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
* Demolitions munitions;
* Anti-armor mines;
* Tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
* Helmets, body armor, and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment; and
* Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

We are grateful to our 🇺🇸 partners for their unwavering support!
Together, we will win.

Hungary:

Moscow:

Kharkiv:

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

The Avdiivka front:

Tatarigami has a new battlefield assessment of operations in the Donbas. From the Thread Reader App:

Donbas Area Situation Report: May 21-22

The frontline remains dynamic despite appearing static. Ukrainian forces reinforced Kharkiv to halt the Russian advance. The situation is still risky considering the thinned defenses. 🧵Thread

Before proceeding, please like and share
Image
2/ Chasiv Yar

Russia identified weak points in the Kanal quarter, deploying infantry deep but failed to establish a foothold, and assaulting forces were eliminated by Ukrainian forces. Another attempt can be more successful, as Russians have additional forces available.
Image
3/ Russian troops made minor tactical gains in the northern axis towards Chasiv Yar, from the Kalynivka area. Progress on the northern flank is still slow, despite initial efforts to reach the area quickly with a land bridge over the canal.
4/ South of Bakhmut

Russia periodically claims control of Klishchiivka, but it lies in ruins with no intact structures. It has been a grey zone for a while, which Russian tactical groups occasionally try to control but are eliminated by Ukrainian defenders on higher ground
Image
5/ The situation is marked by daily Russian assaults yielding small results. The frequent rotation of Russian forces may eventually lead to outcomes favoring them. While the area isn’t immediately threatened with capture, the situation is gradually tilting in Russia’s favor
6/ Ocheretyne

Ocheretyne has received little mention recently, our team deems it one of the most dangerous fronts presently. Russian forces have amassed troops in the area, indicating intentions for further advancement either north of Ocheretyne or northwest toward Vozdvyzhenka
Image
7/ The Solovyove area south of Ocheretyne is unstable, with Russians advancing tactically. Analysis shows that where Ukrainian artillery is scarce, Russian gains increase, indicated by reduced shelling or concentrated forces in staging areas.
8/ Krasnohorivka – Kurakhove area

Russian forces intensified assaults in Krasnohorivka with mechanized units, but gains were mostly limited. Since the Kurakhove area is well fortified, quick Russian advances are not expected. Yet, the threat of losing Krasnohorivka is high
Image
9/ Summary

Zooming out, it’s clear that Russians haven’t achieved significant operational results in this offensive yet. Despite multiple tactical successes, there is no frontline collapse. Our team observes the movements of Russian reserves, suggesting their availability
10/ With Russia having reserves and vehicles for offensive operations, we shouldn’t expect a reduction in their offensive pressure despite losses soon. Russian forces maintaining a presence in areas like near Sumy Oblast suggests the offensive hasn’t peaked yet
11/ For more comprehensive details, the full report is freely available on our website. Simply visit the site for further information:

Donbas Situation Report – May 21st
Operational and Tactical Analysis of the Situation
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/donbas-situation-report-may-21st
12/ Thank you for taking the time to read my thread! If you enjoyed it, I would greatly appreciate it if you could consider liking and sharing the first message of the thread to help boost its visibility. You can also support us via tips:

The Marinka front:

Armanvir, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Not sure where in Ukraine this is:

I’ve included it because I want to use it to make an important point. Whether it’s in Ukraine or Iraq or Afghanistan or anywhere else, when a strike goes bad it usually goes bad for one of two reasons. The first is that the identification of the target is incorrect. As in, the person and/or facility that is identified as the target is incorrect. The other reason is that the right person and right facility have been targeted, the weaponeering has been done correctly, but as in the video above stuff that really likes to go kaboom has been stored in the facility and there’s no way for those doing the targeting to know that. In the video, it’s not that big a deal. The Ukrainians had a legitimate target in the Russian soldiers, the weapon/drone is not designed to create massive damage, so the weaponeering is right, and the house is somewhat isolated on the property, which ensures a minimization of collateral damage. So when whatever munitions the Russians were storing in that house cooked off as a result of the strike we get a really impressive video, but there’s not much collateral damage because there’s not much else around the house. If you want to know more about mitigating civilian harm, you can read the SecDef’s memo, the Action Plan, and the DOD Instruction. They’re page turners!

Armavir, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some footage from Ukraine’s tactical goose corps. Clearly trained by the Canadians! Also, I don’t know why Ponomarenko misspelled Kyiv. Probably text to talk.

Here’s the full text of the first tweet:

Today, I went to my merchandising office and told them I developed Herrro ammunition for dogs because dogs are heroes to their people worldwide. I asked them to arrange international shipping. It seems to be working, so if you have a dog, know that its gear can help deminers: all profits will go to my foundation.
Link: https://patronshop.com.ua/en/product/1716366771/1716366841

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

40Comments

  1. 1.

    Adam L Silverman

    Well that was painful. Added at least 90 minutes to the normal 90 minutes to 2 hours it takes to draft a post.

  2. 2.

    Gin & Tonic

    I think when Ponomarenko writes “Kiev regime” it is intended as sarcasm, or irony, or something of the sort.

  3. 3.

    J. Arthur Crank

    Thanks for making the extra effort.

    Geese can be mean sons and daughters of bitches, and they can cover large areas with goose shit, thereby making maneuvering difficult.  I don’t know how much field rations a goose needs in a day, but it is probably not that much, relatively speaking.

  4. 4.

    J. Arthur Crank

    @Gin & Tonic:

     

    I think when Ponomarenko writes “Kiev regime” it is intended as sarcasm, or irony, or something of the sort.

    My sarcasm detector long went tits up, so I am afraid I won’t be of help here.

  5. 5.

    Mallard Filmore

    Here is a YouTube video of mercenary talking about his war experience:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_jdfaI5dyQ

    title:  “A former PLA soldier hired by Russians gives a reality check on Russia-Ukraine war”

    Li Jianwei is a former PLA soldier and a Chinese mercenary hired by Russia. He talks about his experiences in the Russia-Ukraine war on Chinese social media. In this video, he described the high causality of the Ukraine war and gave first-hand account of the Russian military operations and challenges.  He called Putin’s war in Ukraine “unwinnable” at the end. …

  7. 7.

    Jay

    Thank you Adam, srry  about the WordPress issues, but thank you for struggling through.

    Scritches to Rosie and Patron.

  8. 8.

    pat

    I don’t like to be the first commenter, but…  I have had to stop reading Adam’s posts the last few weeks because I am outraged and sickened that this genocide can be taking place.

    How is this not WWIII?   And seriously, what do the repubs expect to get out of supporting putin in this?

     

    eta, thankfully I am not the first.

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    Thanks for the extra effort, Adam, and thanks for posting that Tweet I asked for.

  10. 10.

    hrprogressive

    @pat: ​
     

    The GOP expects to be a part of the Global Fascist Uprising which is ongoing, worldwide. They would rule America, Putin would rule as much of Eurasia as he’s allowed to conquer, the European Fascist Right would take over the western democracies of Europe, and eventually China will take over the Indo-Pacific region.

    Then after all the world’s dictators have carved out spheres of influence, who knows, nuclear winter I guess.

    But before then, they want power, and control.

    Quashing democracy everywhere is part of that goal.

  11. 11.

    SpaceUnit

    @pat:

    Yeah, these posts are not easy reads.

     

    As for what Republican politicians get . . . . probably money

    ETA:  Also what hrprogressive said.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Mallard Filmore: Such accounts have been making the rounds on Chinese social media.

    I have noticed that Chinese social media is now much less sympathetic to Putin & more sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause. The split now is closer to 50/50, whereas it was strongly pro-Putin in the 1st half of 2022. These are casual views either way, however.

    To Chinese observers if every stripe, Putin’s current invasion of Ukraine has shown his regime to be incompetent, weak & delusional.

  22. 22.

    Carlo Graziani

    Thanks for undertaking the annoying extra effort, Adam.

    In the US assistance package, this stands out:

    * Anti-armor mines;

    I expect to see more, similar defensive preparation supplies in future aid packages.

    I also can’t help wondering whether US Seabees and Army Corps of Engineers are now on tap to provide equipment and expertise on construction of defenses, and whether some of the aid provided that doesn’t make the lede includes concrete mixers, rebar, digging machinery, razor wire, etc.

  23. 23.

    Big R

    Adam, what happened to the account that used to post daily front line maps? I think it was called Purpose and Something?

  24. 24.

    hrprogressive

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
     

    On the one hand, I can understand why you and others might look at this, and conclude the Rosenberg is huffing something good to obscure data that suggests Biden is in trouble.

    On the other hand, Chotiner comes across as someone pushing the narrative of “of course the polls are right” while ignoring electoral evidence that, in the last 8-10 years, polling has offered up some pretty dismal failures. See 2016 when all reputable polling I saw said Hillary had a > 99% chance of being President. See 2022 when “The Red Wave” literally didn’t even merit being a tidepool as Democrats pulled off a ton of unexpected victories, even though yes they lost the House, it wasn’t the bloodbath predicted by “the media” for the entire year.

    There has also been a lot of pushback on, for example, the NYT/Siena polling which appears to go out of their way to “weight” their responses or respondents to be more Republican than the electorate actually is.

    Like,

    You’ve stated you think Trump has a 30% chance of winning, and I mean, in a sane world, there’s no way he’d even have 3%.

    “Hopium” could certainly be saying “hey we’re polling bad, but we’re definitely gonna win, just you wait and see”.

    But I’m not real sure that pointing out when polling is deliberately opaque, seems to be pushing a narrative instead of reporting statistical data, and/or is presented with data that seems cherry-picked…you know, does that really qualify as “Hopium”?

    Something is rotten in the state of Denmark, as it were, in the art and science of polling.

    I’m inclined to believe it is disfavorable to Democrats because the corporate shareholders who desire another Trump run are demanding the data say it will be so.

    But, I do harbor the type of anxiety that suggests anyone who is wishing away a bad headline without something more solid behind it could be leading us to a 2016 redux, and we just can’t afford that.

    Anyway.

  26. 26.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Big R: Chuck Pfarrer’s site. He took like a six week vacation and I just fell out of habit of checking because he was away. I’ll check it tomorrow for you.

  27. 27.

    SpaceUnit

    @hrprogressive:

    The problem with modern polling is the response rate.  People today don’t answer calls from unrecognized numbers.

    If you have to dial over 200 numbers to get a single response you’re not going to get a reliable data sample.  However unintentional, that methodology is selecting for very atypical behavior.

    There’s going to be correlations to other traits that the opinion researchers really can’t account or correct for.

     

    ETA:  Hope I’m not being Captain Obvious here.

  28. 28.

    Carlo Graziani

    @hrprogressive: To stay sane, one needs to strike some kind of balance between “hopium” and “doomerism”. Both are paralyzing, mindsets in their own distinct ways.

    In the context of the November election, here is one way to thread that needle: I live within driving distance of Michigan and Wisconsin, two must-get states for Trump. I plan to take a lot of time off from work in September to work for at least one of those campaigns doing anything they need, from helping voters vote to fetching pizza. That way, if the hopium outcome obtains, I can feel good about my role, whereas if the doomer outcome comes to pass (which is unlikely but not impossible, in my view) I’ll be able to tell myself that at least I did my part.

    That last would be important to maintain my sanity in the insanity that would follow, in that scenario. I could draw from it the strength to soldier on, instead of running away.

  30. 30.

    Another Scott

    RFERL.org:

    Czech National Security Adviser Tomas Pojar says that the country’s ammo initiative will start sending urgently needed artillery shells to Ukraine no later than June. The Czech-led drive has reportedly raised enough funds to procure hundreds of thousands of shells from non-EU markets. In an interview with Current Time, Pojar said that supporting Ukraine is essential for Czech security because it means “Russian soldiers are not on the Slovak border.”

    (Includes 2:15 video.)

    Good, good.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  31. 31.

    Another Scott

    What’s that expression? Necessity is a mother??

    TWZ.com:

    Ukraine’s U.S.-supplied M1A1 Abrams tanks are getting new production-standard anti-drone armor screens, also commonly known as “cope cages,” on their turrets. Pictures of one of the modified Abrams show it has also received additional explosive reactive armor (ERA), modifications that have also been appearing elsewhere in the field.

    This all comes roughly a month after U.S. officials reportedly said Ukrainian forces had pulled the M1A1s from the front lines, particularly due to concerns about their vulnerability to first-person view (FPV) kamikaze drones and other uncrewed aerial threats. The extent to which Ukraine’s Abrams tanks have returned to service since then is unclear, but they may well be back in action.

    Ukraine-headquartered Metinvest Group, a steel and mining conglomerate, put out a press release about the new armor screens earlier today. The company said that it is also making factory-standard anti-drone armor for Soviet-designed T-64 and T-72 families of tanks (which include the T-80 and T-90 series, respectively), but only showed an example of the design for the Abrams. This is a part of the firm’s broader “Steel Front” wartime production initiative, which has also been churning out pre-fabricated protected shelters, body armor, and other kinds of materiel for the Ukrainian armed forces.

    “After a long and thorough procedure of testing and testing, steel screens began to be supplied to the Armed Forces free of charge,” according to a machine translation of the release. “So far, more than 25 additional protection systems have been manufactured and delivered, seven of which are for M1 Abrams tanks.”

    […]

    The full configuration looks to have additional angled sections that close the gaps between the top and the side panels. Very small gaps are left open for the Abrams’ side-mounted launchers that are used to fire smoke grenades to help conceal the tank. It is worth noting that FPV drone operators have been proven very adept at using available gaps, even small ones, in armor screens and other defenses to slip in and make attacks.

    […]

    One is reminded of Achilles and his unprotected heel…

    More at the link, with lots of pictures.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  32. 32.

    hrprogressive

    @SpaceUnit: ​

    This is kind of the crux of it. Polling hasn’t caught up with modern life, and I don’t think the statisticians behind it have determined a valid, scientific method that would produce statistically reliable data while also capturing a wide swath of the populace that just isn’t – for various reasons – reachable, and includible, in a sampling methodology.
    I haven’t been polled in *years* but I am a reliable (D) vote. I am surely not the only one. But because I’m not 70 years old with a landline phone, I don’t get included?

    @Carlo Graziani: ​
     

    My issue here is multifold;

    1) I understand what Adam is getting at. Democrats made fun of Mitt Romney for “unskewing the polls” in 2012 and he lost pretty handily. If Democrats and their surrogates are doing the same 12 years later, even if they have valid points, I understand how that comes off as “hopium”.

    2) As I noted above, I think there’s a big difference between the GOP claiming there’s some magical untapped and silent pool of loyal GOP voters that the liberal media just isn’t reporting on…and data and numbers people pointing out the flaws in polls being put out that, in some cases, really seem designed to goose the figured for Trump instead of accurately report “the state of the race”

    3) Where I am truly torn is that I think “both sides” likely have valid points, and the truth is likely a murky gray area between “the polls are all bad” and “Biden’s numbers aren’t so good”.

    But murky gray means ambiguity about whether Biden and Co pull off being reelected, or we get The Trump Reich.

    4) I applaud what you’re doing, but I absolutely believe if Biden doesn’t win, this country may well either turn into that viscous autocracy and/or violent political fighting will erupt. I don’t think this country survives a second Trump Term, and I believe non-Republicans of all flavors should be considering and preparing themselves for that possibility, and what they might do about it.

    I am troubled that not enough left of center folks are giving the nightmare scenario real weight. And they need to. Now.

  33. 33.

    Carlo Graziani

    @hrprogressive: Should Trump be elected—again, I believe that the chances of this are not great— the US will experience a Constitutional crisis rivalling the one that occurred in 1860. In that event, we should draw upon the examples of resolution and endurance set by the people who lived through that crisis.

    But, really, we should all endeavour to avoid having to choke down that shit sandwich by working as hard as we can to send it to the MAGA table.

  35. 35.

    Subsole

    @pat: The GOP expects Russian technical and financial aid in “transitioning America beyond elections”.

    They are ideological fellow travellers. The performative machismo, the gay bashing, the race baiting, the misogyny, the incestuous theocratic plutoligarchy, the crushing security state, the looting of every public good that is not spot-welded to the floor, on fire and actively fighting back …Russia is the GOP’s vision for America.

    Think of them less as Americans and more as Vichy-in-waiting.

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I had not realized so many M1 Abrams MBTs in Ukrainian service have been knocked out. Militaries around the world will have to rethink how to design & deploy tanks in the future.

  37. 37.

    YY_Sima Qian

    An interesting study of Chinese sentiments wrt Russia & Ukraine on social media:

    Maria Repnikova
    @MariaRepnikova

    Excited for the new publication in @TheChinaJournal w my grad student and soon incoming @Uva_EAC post-doc @WendyZhou502 on #Chinese public sentiments about #Russia‘s war in #Ukraine. Free copy for first 50 clicks here: https://journals.uchicago.edu/eprint/87RC9V8CSY4WWWSMZRZ3/full?redirectUri=/doi/epdf/10.1086/730498. Thread with our arguments below

    1) Our in-depth analysis of dominant narratives in response to first 6 months since invasion found the prevalence of #nationalistic positions, but they all articulate different stances from that of the party-state.

    2) a) Direct support for Russia to challenge the West; b) cautionary stance to preserve China’s competitiveness vis-a-vis the West; c) support for Ukraine as rooted in China’s own experience with foreign aggression. All three are distinct from official ambiguity.

    3) More broadly our analysis speaks to #Chinese perceptions on #InternationalAffairs. All three groups take a Darwinist, realist stance, seeing the international system as chaotic and disorderly, and hard power as the core decisive factor.

    4) Our study also expands our understanding of popular #nationalism. We find pervasiveness of #China-centric lens in engaging with more distant conflicts. We also underscore that nationalistic expression is multidimensional, including radical, but also moderate positions.

    5) Finally for #Chinese media studies field, the article shows that alternative narratives about sensitive issues still filter through the censors and that #nationalism can be a shield to express diverse perspectives on geopolitical topics.

  38. 38.

    hrprogressive

    @Carlo Graziani: ​
     

    I’d like to think there’s not much chance of it either, but Adam continually indicates he thinks there’s at least a 30% chance, and I mean.

    Again, “the polls” told us there was < 1% of Trump in 2016, and that didn't work out well for anyone.

    So I just don't know who, or what, to believe.

    I believe there's a contingent of Americans who want to be the rulers of this country, and are not afraid to take what they want by force.

    I also believe the contingent of Americans who do not want this is larger than the contingent that does, by a lot.

    But will the majority actually stop the minority? Either via the ballot box, or other means?

    I don't know yet.

    And if I'm being honest, I don't know anyone who has the right crystal ball on this.

  39. 39.

    Bill Arnold

    @hrprogressive:

    I don’t know anyone who has the right crystal ball on this.

    A crystal ball is the wrong tool.[1]
    One should presume that the future has not yet been written.
    The right tools (for the 2024 USA elections) are whatever tools/skills one has that can be used to influence politics in desired directions.
    Forecasting abilities/skills/methods can and should guide such efforts, sure.

    [1] Something something Norns.

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