Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

Humiliatingly small and eclipsed by the derision of millions.

Bark louder, little dog.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Not rolling over. fuck you, make me.

I don’t recall signing up for living in a dystopian sci-fi novel.

If rights aren’t universal, they are privilege, not rights.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

The willow is too close to the house.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

White supremacy is terrorism.

The lights are all blinking red.

People are weird.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

If you’re gonna whine, it’s time to resign!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 823: The Butcher’s Bill for Kharkiv

War for Ukraine Day 823: The Butcher’s Bill for Kharkiv

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is doing fine as she heads into the second week off in between chemo treatments. Currentyly she’s sprawled out across the middle of the bed. And she just sat up because she knows I’m typing about her. The brown bomber – Ruby – is, as usual, curled up just next to me. Thank you all again for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations. They are all greatly appreciated.

I’m going to keep tonight’s update on the shorter side.

As of 10:02 PM EDT – about 45 minutes into drafting tonight’s update – air raid alerts have gone up over all of eastern Ukraine and into the central Ukrainian oblast of Kirovohrad.

Before we get into the post proper, I wanted to take a moment and talk about this post from the Auschwitz Memorial. I saw it on Bluesky, but it’s easier to use their tweet..

A heartbreaking moment that was saved by an SS photographer at Auschwitz II-Birkenau during the deportations of Hungarian Jews.

It was taken 80 years ago, most likely in late May 1944. A little child finds a dandelion in the grass and is handing it or showing it to an older boy.

All the people in this picture had already gone through the arrival selection and were awaiting to be murdered in a gas chamber. They were killed shortly after.

Please repost this unique document.

I’ve seen this picture many, many times before. At Bluesky, when I reposted it per the Auschwitz Memorial’s request, I suggested that you could title it:

“Innocence Last.” Or “The last moment of innocence.” Or “Prelude to the death of innocence.”

But what really struck me this morning is that at the moment I saw the Auschwitz Memorial post, there are young children in Ukraine, Gaza, Myanmar, Sudan, and at least a half dozen other places that are doing something similar to this long lost toddler because they are too young to understand the cruelty they are being subjected to. As well as the horrific reality they are experiencing. So they pick a flower and hand it to an older sibling. Or play with a toy that has managed to survive a missile or drone strike.

The Russians, of course, continued to bombard Kharkiv today:

Here’s the butcher’s bill from yesterday’s attack on Kharkiv:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Many Leaders Condemned Russian Terror; It Is Important That This Condemnation Leads to Fair Consequences – Address by the President

26 May 2024 – 20:27

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, the rubble at the site of a Russian bomb attack on a hypermarket in Kharkiv is being cleared all day long, as the building has burned to the ground. As of now, fourteen people have been reported dead. My condolences to all the families and friends. The death toll may be higher as additional examinations and further work are needed after the fire to provide full information about the deceased. The number of injured is over forty. Everyone is being provided with the necessary assistance. As required, all the necessary services are engaged on the scene of this Russian terrorist attack – hundreds of people are working: the State Emergency Service, police, psychologists, and the necessary equipment. The regional and city authorities are also helping. I am grateful to everyone who supports the people and supports our Kharkiv. Many leaders, representatives of states and international organizations, public figures have expressed their condolences to Ukraine and Kharkiv and condemned Russian terror. It is important that this condemnation leads to entirely fair consequences. That we finally get a sufficient number of air defense systems to protect Ukraine and our cities. And that our partners have enough determination for preemptive protection against Russian terrorists, just as they would strike at any other terrorists – destroying them before they start taking lives. We see every point of concentration of Russian troops. We know all the areas where Russian missiles and combat aircraft are launched. Destroying this terrorist force – and thus saving thousands of lives and guaranteeing that the expansion of the war will be stopped – is purely a political decision. A decision that needs to be made. I thank everyone who supports us in this. We will work with partners to speed up and increase the supply of F-16s to Ukraine. This will also enhance our protection from terrorist attacks on our cities and from the pressure of the Russian army on the frontline.

Today, I spoke with General Syrskyi. Today, the Pokrovsk direction in the Donetsk region is the toughest one, however the occupier continues its attempts to attack in the Kharkiv region as well, particularly in the areas of Vovchansk and Lyptsi. Our units, our warriors, are doing a tremendous job of deterring this Russian pressure and proving once again that Russian lunatics may plan all sorts of things against Ukraine, but the resilience of Ukrainians and the courage of our warriors really make all the difference in this war.

Following the results of this week’s battles, I would like to commend the warriors of our 57th separate motorized infantry brigade and the 92nd separate assault brigade. Thank you, warriors, for your strength in the Kharkiv region. I would also like to commend the warriors of the 25th Sicheslav separate airborne brigade and the 47th separate mechanized brigade for their fighting in the Pokrovsk direction. I would also like to recognize the DIU’s special units for defending the Kharkiv region and countering Russian assaults in the area of Chasiv Yar. Thank you! I will also mention our border guards. For participating in battles at the front along with the entire Defense and Security Forces, and for destroying Russian subversive groups. In particular, warriors of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine from the Hart brigade, Lviv and Chop detachments are defending our state in the area of Vovchansk. Soldier Oleksiy Frolov, Senior Soldier Yaroslav Ostapchuk, Junior Sergeant Pavlo Hryb, Sergeant Illia Trotsiuk, and Senior Sergeant Petro Habel have particularly distinguished themselves. Thank you! It is also worth noting the continued heroism of the DOZOR special unit, border guards of the Zhytomyr and Sumy detachments, and the Revenge brigade. The Chernihiv detachment, whose warriors are fighting in the Donetsk region – Kurakhove direction. Thank you! Our soldiers Vitaliy Mukha and Vitaliy Krasko, as well as Staff Sergeant Andriy Vitchenko deserve special gratitude. Well done, guys!

And today, on Kyiv Day, I want to thank all our warriors, each and every one of you who defended our capital, who helped, who provided strength, who volunteered, and by defending Kyiv, defended our entire nation. Thank you!

Glory to Ukraine!

Zelenskyi with a video from Kharkiv. A strong message and appeal to western leadership.

—

For them, it is a pleasure to burn. We all know who we are dealing with. Russia is ruled by people who want to make it the norm to burn lives, destroy cities and villages, divide nations and erase national borders with war.

There is no nation that can stop such a war by its own efforts alone. The participation of world leaders is needed.

Does Russia want dialogue? Ukraine has the world’s greatest experience of deception by Russia in negotiations. Deception, which, in particular, was Russia’s cover for the preparation of this war. And that is why global efforts are needed – a peace summit with the participation of leaders who cannot be deceived by Russia.

Together with Switzerland, we are preparing such a Summit. It starts on June 15. We have already confirmed the participation of more than 80 countries and continue to work with leaders, inviting them to the Summit. Thanks to everyone who really helps peace. I turn to the world leaders who are still on the sidelines of the global effort to prepare for the Peace Summit: to President Biden, the leader of the United States, to President Xi, the leader of China. We don’t want the UN Charter to burn like these books. I hope you don’t want to either. Please show your leadership in bringing about peace – real peace, not pauses between strikes.

The efforts of the world majority are the best guarantee of the fulfillment of obligations. Please support the Peace Summit with your personal leadership and participation.

Since the Biden administration has refused to lead, it will now have to decide if it will either follow or, at least, get out of the way:

#Sweden confirmed #Ukraine can use its weapons against targets in Russia. Defence minister Pal Jonson said “Ukraine’s exposed to an unprovoked & illegal war of aggression by Russia. According to international law, Ukraine has the right to defend itself by means of hostilities aimed at the territory of the adversary…” https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-putin-wraps-up-china-trip-with-subtle-message-for-west-one-dead-in-airstrike-on-odesa-12541713?postid=7728791#liveblog-body

From Sky News:

Sweden allowing Ukraine to strike targets in Russia using its weapons
As Ukraine battles to deter Russia’s offensive around Kharkiv, the debate around restrictions on the use of weapons donated by NATO countries continues.

The US is coming under increasing pressure to drop its ban on Ukraine using its weapons to hit targets inside Russia.

President Joe Biden and co have been worried that allowing Ukraine to do so would be seen as escalation by Moscow.

Ukraine was forced to watch as Russian troops amassed across the border near Kharkiv, unable to bring its full weaponry to bear.

With the debate in full swing – and the US reportedly considering a change – Sweden has confirmed that Ukraine can use its weapons against targets in Russia.

Defence minister Pal Jonson told Swedish newspaper Hallandsposten that no such rule applied to his country’s weapons.

He said: “Ukraine is exposed to an unprovoked and illegal war of aggression by Russia.

“According to international law, Ukraine has the right to defend itself by means of hostilities aimed at the territory of the adversary as long as the hostilities comply with the laws of war.

“Sweden stands behind international law and Ukraine’s right to defend itself.”

The Germans, thanks to Olaf Scholz, are in the same position as the US. They won’t lead, so now they must either follow or get out of the way.

The British, however, are not in the way:

Neither are Poland, the Baltic States, or France:

Here’s the full text of the quote tweet:

Baltic countries and Poland will send their troops to Ukraine in the event of serious successes of the Russian military at the frontlines – Der Spiegel, citing sources.

“If the Russians achieve a strategic breakthrough in eastern Ukraine, because the West is helping without much enthusiasm, then the situation could deteriorate sharply. In this case, the Baltic countries and Poland will not wait until Russian troops reach their borders, Baltic politicians warned – they will send in troops themselves to Ukraine. And this means that NATO will become a participant in the war. This is exactly what the Chancellor and the President of the United States are rightfully afraid of,” the article says.

Baltic politicians warned Germany about this development of events during the Lennart Meri conference in Tallinn, the publication writes.

Link: https://spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-die-angst-vor-dem-grossen-krieg-a-2d8b49c8-ca5f-473c-8299-cbb737c26a02

And the quoted tweet:

If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request, France would need to consider the possibility of deploying its troops there, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview for The Economist.

Here are a few more points from his interview:

◾️”I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out. We have undoubtedly been too hesitant by defining the limits of our action to someone who no longer has any and who is the aggressor!”

◾️”I have a clear strategic objective: Russia cannot win in Ukraine. If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe.”

◾️”We mustn’t rule anything out because our objective is that Russia must never be able to win in Ukraine.”

◾️”France is a country that has carried out military interventions, including in recent times. We deployed several thousand troops in the Sahel to fight terrorism, which could have posed a threat to us. We did so at the request of sovereign states.”

(Operation Barkhane of the French armed forces in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Niger against Islamist terrorist groups).

◾️”If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request—which is not the case today—we would legitimately have to ask ourselves this question. I think to rule it out a priori is not to learn the lessons of the past two years.”

◾️”The aggressiveness of the Russian response to what I said showed that this was having the desired effect, which was to say: Don’t think that we will stop here if you don’t stop.”

Source: https://economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/emmanuel-macron-in-his-own-words-english

The Baltics:

As I’ve written many times, Putin operates off of Lenin’s maxim:

Probe with bayonets. If you find mush, proceed. If you find steel, withdraw.

What Putin has learned from the Biden administration’s and Scholz’s risk aversion is that he can can pretty much do whatever he wants and despite the rhetoric, there will be no meaningful response. He’s also watched Bibi and his extremist coalition blow off, ignore, insult, and actively work against Biden’s efforts to save Israel from itself, including Bibi and his extremist coalition, as well as politically maneuver against Biden politically in the US in favor of the GOP with only the most tepid and minimal pushback from Biden and his administration. He’s learned from all of this that he can pretty much do whatever he wants. He’s probing with bayonets. Other than the Ukrainians themselves, he has yet to find steel.

Kyiv:

Happy Birthday to Kyiv.

Throughout well over 1,000 years of its history, my beloved city has traveled a path from a small trade post on the river in the Age of Vikings to being the center of a powerful medieval kingdom and the true heart of our part of human civilization and then dying in the fire of the Mongolian conquest…. to rise again in its ancient glory many centuries later.

It’s one of the world’s most spiritually powerful places, where one can spend one’s entire lifetime learning something new at every corner and on every street.

Owning Kyiv is Vladimir Putin’s most zealous dark desire for the sake of which he has wasted countless thousands of lives and will gladly go on spilling rivers of blood… but he will never get it.

Sumy Oblast:

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

Russian forces struck 10 communities in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy Oblast in 28 separate attacks throughout the day, the regional administration reported on May 26. At least 127 explosions were reported in Sumy Oblast over the past 24 hours.

The communities of Khotin, Yunakivka, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Myropillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Putyvl, Esman, Seredyna-Buda, and Znob-Novhorodske were targeted.

Throughout the day, Russia assailed the border communities with mortar, artillery, rocket launcher, and drone attacks. The community of Putyvl saw at least five mines dropped, according to the Sumy Oblast Military Administration.

No casualties or damages to civilian infrastructure were reported.

The town of Bilopillia, with a pre-war population of about 15,600 residents, experienced the bulk of the attacks, with 33 explosions reported in the area. Bilopillia lies just eight kilometers south of the Ukraine-Russia border.

The region suffers daily shelling by Russia and Ukrainian troops regularly fight off Russian sabotage groups conducting raids across the border. The region borders Russia’s Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts.

Sumy Oblast was liberated from Russian occupation in April 2022.

Ukraine has built up its fortifications in Sumy Oblast in recent months and authorities have ordered evacuations from the region.

Kharkiv Oblast:

Yesterday, yet another barbaric Russian strike in Kharkiv killed at least 16 Ukrainians (including a 12-year-old girl and her mom). At least 8 more are missing. Believed killed, unfortunately.

After more than two years of the full-scale war in Europe, we are still having an unprecedentedly absurd situation in which the powerful aggressor is somehow automatically entitled to have a safe zone in the whole of its territory where it can comfortably concentrate its forces, maintain logistics, deliver any sorts of strikes — and stay unpunished and unprevented.

It is even somehow entitled to have its POL facilities untouched by the defender.

This is absurd beyond basic common sense.

This is not the way anyone can win a war.

And this obstacle is senseless, destructive, and factitious.

This is not the only problem that stands in Ukraine’s way, but it is essential – the strategy of avoiding upsetting Putin and thus making Ukraine fight with one hand tied behind its back has no positive future.

For want of a nail.

Here’s the latest assessment from Ukrainian Marine Kriegsforscher via the Thread Reader App:

Yesterday we had a task near Vovchansk and I have a couple words to say about Russian tactics, artillery ammo, some politician bullshit from the USA and others.

A short thread🧵👇Image

My guys and I left our base at 4:00 in the morning. At 5:00 we were in Vovchansk.

Firstly it was calm. Even bugs didn’t fly a lot and weren’t disturbing me.

We had a task to find/prepare a normal place for our future recon operations. 

A couple of places we have found were quite bad and dangerous so we moved forward.

Apart from my gun and ammo I carried approximately 35 kg on me. Firstly it was not bad. 

We walked approximately 5-6 kilometres and took a break. Checked a map where to go.

Due to the specific of our work, air recon, we need to consider hills for better connection with a drone.Image

Finally found a place. Need to say that there a lot of drones in the air (recon Mavic and FVP drones).

Constantly hiding in the bushes. Cause you never know whether it’s Ukrainian or not. 

Found a nice place and started digging.

It took a us a couple of hours (that’s not a finished project).
Image
Image

And now the most important thing: from 6:00 till 15:00 EVERY minute Russians were firing from 6 to 12 artillery shells. Every minute without stopping. U may count the approximate total amount.

And 5 guided bombs. 

Our forces also fired back. Approximately 25-35 mortar shells, 10-20 artillery shells and 15-20 MRLS rockets.

That’s about artillery shelling advantage. 

Thanks God they were not firing at us.

All their artillery placed in Russia. They are firing everywhere and burning everything: villages, Vovchansk, forest.

But we cannot fire back with US (and others) supplied artillery from a safe distance.Image

What I don’t really like about modern Russian tactics — it’s quite situational actions. I mean it’s very hard for them to deploy tanks and AFVs.

So they just use stormtroopers and sometimes they reach success. 

Russian operational group «North» doesn’t have enough tanks and mechanised units to use them. Cause they will loose them very fast and it’s impossible (inside of a group) to replace them.

Apart from advancing they also need to defend the border line. Remember that. 

Right in Vovchansk the 138 Russian brigade mostly employed. And some stormtroopers groups. That is not enough .

So in the nearest future they will deploy the 83 air assault brigade from Bachkmut direction. 

Folks, right now we have an urgent need to fix two our cars.

The price is not very big (500$) but considering the fact that we fixed the previous time our cars on our own (from the salary) we would appreciate your support:

[email protected]

That’s our PP

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Donetsk Oblast:

We’ve got more footage of the 110th bringing down one of the six Su-25s that Ukraine has downed over the past several weeks.

It was 10 year ago today that the battle for Donetsk airport broke out. The below announcement from the airport’s account said: “ATTENTION! From 7am Donetsk Airport temporarily suspends flight services. The resumption of work will be announced later.” It never reopened. Russian-led DNR forces entered the terminals and Ukrainian forces fought back. The fight marked the transition from a conflict to a war. And the battle for the airport would last months and spawn the legend of the Ukrainian “Cyborgs,” who’d hold out under unimaginable odds and circumstances until the airport fell in early 2015.

 

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Team have published a new investigation into Russian missile manufacturing. From the Thread Reader App:

Investigation by Frontelligence Insight reveals that since 2022, despite sanctions, Russian cruise missile manufacturer Raduga has not only continued to operate but also expanded production, thanks to imported Western and Chinese machinery

🧵Thread (Please Like and Share first):Image

2/ “Raduga” is a design bureau located in Dubna, Moscow Oblast, specializing in the production of missile systems, which are now used against Ukraine. This includes various modifications of the Kh-55, Kh-59, and Kh-101 missiles, as well as other missile types and models.Image
3/ The Raduga State Machine Building Design Bureau was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury on March 24, 2022. Despite these sanctions, the enterprise has continued its operations. However, the production of high-precision missiles isn’t entirely reliant on domestic resources alone.Image
4/ Thanks to the Ukrainian Cyber Resistance @CyberResUa, which provided us with materials from Raduga, we were able to analyze hundreds of conversations and inspect documents containing evidence of the continued acquisition of foreign components for production. 
5/ The key document of our investigation is Raduga’s Plan for Technical Modernization and Reconstruction for 2023. It provides a detailed description of needs, expansion costs, and goals aimed at meeting the requirements and production volumes set by the Ministry of DefenseImage
6/ This detailed plan included a budget and a list of specific equipment, along with their country of origin. The following non-Russian companies have been listed: Fagima Jazz R (Italy), Automator (Italy), Hottenger Gmbh (Germany), Hangcha (China), and Hision (China).Image
7/ It remains unclear whether this equipment is purchased through third parties or third countries, but in some cases, like with Italian FAGIMA FRESATRICI SRL, business was likely conducted directly with the company.Image
8/ Based on the semi-annual report on task progress, most tasks were completed on time, with some even ahead of schedule, suggesting that some of the listed equipment has already been successfully purchased and delivered.Image
9/ Based on the same document, it’s evident that the finances were allocated towards purchasing new equipment, constructing and modernizing buildings, upgrading laboratory and testing facilities, and developing IT solutions. 
10/ While the Frontelligence Insight team cannot determine whether all these companies are fully, partially aware of this, or unaware of it at all, without strict enforcement of sanctions, Russia will find ways to circumvent sanctions and expand its military production. 

11/ These companies should undergo additional scrutiny to determine how their equipment ends up in Russian missile production:

– Fagima (Italy)
– Automator (Italy), provided through Атомус
– Hottinger Gmbh (Germany)
– Hangcha (China)
– Hision (China) 

12/ Thank you for taking the time to read our investigation.

The full report with more details will be released later this week. Meanwhile, we would greatly appreciate it if you could consider liking and sharing the first message of the thread to help increase its visibility 

The sanctions regime is just running on all cylinders.

That’s enough for tonight.

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@patron__dsns

Відповідь користувачу @бруківка🇺🇦 ❤️

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

28Comments

  1. 1.

    Felicity Merriman

    Trying to think of some other place where something like that might be happening…nope, can’t think of any…

  2. 2.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Felicity Merriman: What’s your point other than being a troll. I’m in no mood for useless idiots tonight. This is your warning. Continue to be stupid and you’ll be banned.

  3. 3.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I think the PRC stance is that they will only join a peace summit if Russia is also present. I am not sure why Biden is not attending, or if he is sending Blinken &/or Sullivan.

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Felicity Merriman: Assuming you are not just a troll, Adam has clearly stated on several occasions what he thinks of the Israel war of vengeance, & the Biden Administration’s unwillingness to rein in Israel or push the latter toward a more strategic/rational direction.

    Adam has also been clear that he does not have the bandwidth to cover two wars at the same time, much as we all might want him to. Nevertheless, there have been plenty of informative discussions in these [open] threads & those periodically by other front pagers.

    If you are outraged by hypocrisy or double standard, you can vent toward the Biden Administration & some of the other Western government. Or you can direct your outrage toward the governments of the PRC, Brazil & other Global South countries for shedding tears for Gazans but not nearly so much (if any at all) for Ukrainians, or to the government of India for not shedding tears for either.

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Yes, but unless there is very strong representation across the Global South, I doubt Xi will feel much pressure. The PRC MFA will also argue, & has argued, that a meaningful peace summit requires participation by both belligerents.

    It’s transparently self-serving, but current PRC foreign policy is prioritizing influence in the Asia Pacific & the Global South, while managing frictions w/ the non-US West (especially in economic/trade realms), & avoiding direct confrontation w/ the US. On those terms, I think PRC foreign policy has been fairly successful on the 1st, mixed success on the 2nd, work in progress on the 3rd.

    The PRC will not be caught even symbolically aligning w/ Ukraine & the West against Russia, when the Russia is too valuable for its Great Power Competition w/ the US. There are all kinds of perverse consequences worldwide when Great Power Competition is the dominant dynamic in Sino-US relations. Unfortunately, both sides seem only interested in managing the rivalry to avoid an accidental hot war, but not interested in changning the dynamic, & neither are interested in taking the 1st step required to change the dynamic.

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Speaking of Israel’s war of vengeance in Gaza, Ha’aretz stating the obvious:

    🧵1/3
    The IDF’s General Staff lost control over the units, especially reserve units, months ago. In Gaza, in the West Bank and in bases in Israel, soldiers record themselves destroying Palestinian property and civilian infrastructure / Amos Harel
    🧵2/3
    Blowing up homes without permission and spreading political messages identified with the far right. What is photographed and distributed is only the tip of the iceberg
    🧵3/3
    The vast majority of offenses are committed beyond the range of cameras, and in the vast majority of these cases, the army responds weakly if at all. Some of the incidents are serving ICJ prosecutors as proof of the allegations against Israel

  12. 12.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks! Will check him out.

    Much like Ukraine, the attention of Western MSM has largely turned from Gaza, even as the IDF is now invading Rafah.

  13. 13.

    Another Scott

    What Putin has learned from the Biden administration’s and Scholz’s risk aversion is that he can can pretty much do whatever he wants and despite the rhetoric, there will be no meaningful response.

    That’s too strong.

    Ukraine Security Assistance (3 page .pdf)

    DefenceU lists an estimated 501k russian casualties in Ukraine along with lots and lots of materiel. Those losses are enabled to a large extent by the US’s and Germany’s substantial support.

    VVP and russia are paying a huge price.

    My $0.02. FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  15. 15.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: It helps that Sinwar and his people have done a good job of making Hamas disappear from the narrative. The focus in the US is on campus protests until/unless something goes boom in a way that the cable news channels can replay over and over as “Breaking News.” The real tragedy is that for all the smoke and light, there is little heat. The Palestinians in Gaza are where they’ve always been: trapped between the anvil of Hamas and the hammer that is Bibi and his coalition. And the Israeli’s are caught between the same anvil and hammer. Though they do bear the responsibility of voting in a way that set the conditions for Bibi to be the prime minister with ever more extreme coalitions for 13 of the last 15 years.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: I agree that characterization is too strong, even though I agree w/ the substance of Adam’s long standing criticisms.

    However, the enormous losses in men & materiel is not proving the deterrence or hinderance to Putin that one might hope or expect, & that has been obvious since Bakhmut, if not earlier. The thinking in DC & Berlin seem not have been updated.

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: No, poor ethnic Russians from Buratia and Tyvan and similar border oblasts/republics are paying the price. If what the US was doing was deterring Putin, we’d actually be able to document the deterrence. We can’t because it hasn’t and isn’t. The US and Germany have given comparatively little as a percentage of GDP and/or actual overall military spending even if they’ve given large/larger amounts than smaller states overall.

  18. 18.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Yeah, a deeply tragic state of affairs.

    Then there is the “vision” for Gaza in 2030 that the Israeli government pushed out, complete w/ AI generated fantasy picture, & a “plan” that has a strong whiff of Jared Kushner/Donald Trump real estate scam to it.

  19. 19.

    Devore

    Thanks Adam.

    Now that USA lethal aid is flowing again.   Is there something else or something’s that Ukraine needs – but isn’t getting- to push the Russians out?   Such as a few hundred F16s.   Or what about 100 F35s   Or is it coming down to manpower?

  20. 20.

    Jay

    @Another Scott:

     

    @YY_Sima Qian:

     

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The manpower losses, have not reduced the numbers of ruZZian forces.

    Other than the Black Sea Fleet, Putin has shifted a large part of the ruZZian economy to a war economy and ruZZia is outproducing the West on shells, missiles and ammo, 3:1.

    ruZZia is catching up on drone warfare.

    While ruZZia has drawn down a lot of their Cold War stocks, they still have lots of stocks left and have ramped up refurb programs.

    Putin is also purging ogliarches and Generals critical of how the war has been fought and shored up his crony support.

  21. 21.

    Jay

    @Devore:

    Now that USA lethal aid is flowing again

    As Adam has pointed out many times, the aid is not flowing, yet, not until late June, early July.

  22. 22.

    Freemark

    @Jay: Not actually true. A lot of the aid, like ammunition. shells, and ATACMS, has already made it to the front. Still not soon enough and with too many restrictions, but it is there now.

  25. 25.

    daveNYC

    I’d really like to know what exact price Putin is paying.  Yeah, the economy is taking a hit and a bunch of Russians from regions that Putin doesn’t care about are dying, but the whole point of US policy is (hopefully) to help Ukraine push Russia out of its territory and reach an actual ‘just’ peace, not just rack up a body count and pile drive Russia’s GDP.

    And it’s gonna be hard to get a peace agreement if Russia is free to park a pile of artillery on their side of the border and blaze away at Ukrainian towns unhindered.

  26. 26.

    Another Scott

    @daveNYC: One example – VVP’s cash cow that funds the war and acts as an iron fist at Europe’s throat is collapsing.

    FT.com

    There are others.

    VVP thought he would have a puppet installed in Kyiv in 2 weeks at most. The idea that he thinks the current state of affairs with the losses and costs is just fine is nonsensical to me.

    YMMV.

    Cheers
    Scott.

  27. 27.

    Another Scott

    KyivIndependent.com:

    Editor’s note: This story is being updated.

    France is planning to send instructors to Ukraine to train the military, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on May 27 after a video meeting with French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu.

    His announcement came after the New York Times’ reports that some NATO member states are discussing the possibility of sending military instructors or contractors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops and assist with equipment repairs.

    Kyiv has asked the U.S. and other NATO countries to help train 150,000 soldiers closer to the front lines, the outlet wrote.

    Syrskyi said he had already signed documents “that will allow the first French instructors to visit our training centers soon and see infrastructure and staff.”

    “I believe that France’s determination will encourage other partners to join this ambitious project,” the general said, without disclosing further details.

    Paris has not yet made an official statement.

    […]

    I ass-u-me that western instructors / contractors have been in and out of the country for months (we were helping Ukraine with training and exercises for years before the full-scale invasion, after all). Making the arrangement more formal, public, and sustained makes sense.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  28. 28.

    Freemark

    @Jay: Actually yes. Adam said the larger stuff will take that long. That stuff has already gotten to the front lines. Ukraine started receiving it within 24 hours of the signing of the bill. Do you think Ukrainian logistics are that slow? There was literally ammo and other aid waiting in trucks and trains in Germany and Poland waiting for the signing. The stuff coming from the U.S. will take longer. You misunderstood. It’s also not in the quantity they really need but you are incorrect about what is going on.

    The link you supplied says this “The New York Times states that Ukraine received a batch of anti-tank missiles, ammunition and 155-mm artillery rounds from the US as early as 28 April. The second batch of American aid arrived on 29 April. Next day, a new batch of Patriot interceptor missiles from Spain arrived in Poland on Tuesday. A senior Spanish official stated that “they will be at the Ukrainian front soon”.

    You may be mixing it up with the Czech initiative which won’t be delivering ammo until June.

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