Well, that’s a relief. I decided I would take a half an edible and make a big bowl of popcorn (WITH MELTED BUTTER) and enjoy the afterglow of watching one of the worst people on the planet FINALLY being held accountable for something he has done. And the real bonus is that none of the jurors or the judge or prosecutors were murdered by one of his lunatic henchmen.
As to what it all means, I have no idea. It confirms legally what we have all known and been saying for years, which is that he is a crook and criminal and has broken a bazillion laws. Will it hurt him in the election? I have no idea. The Republican party is so broken at this point that one of the few honest things that Trump has ever said was that he could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and not lose any vote. Will he go to jail? Dunno. Personally, I would adore it if he avoided jail but was sentenced to home confinement in one of his shitty hotels in NYC surrounded by a city full of people who hate him. That would be cool.
Honestly, I don’t care. He’s a convicted felon, and that is all that matters.
Now let’s take the evening and enjoy the afterglow.
War for Ukraine Day 827: Kharkiv is Under Attack (Again)!!!!
Tim in SF
It’s a great day!
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
the agony of defeat (photo)
his tears of unfathomable sadness are delicious
bbleh
Yup, already had a couple beers.
Tho annoyed at my relatives for cautioning me not to celebrate too obviously because some of the WV boys might get upset, to which I have politely replied that they’re just gonna have to suck it up, while carefully not losing my sh!t and screaming that TCFG and the boys would happily send me and mine to death camps
T C FG now, let us note.
Baud
Same here, JC.
HumboldtBlue
A Ron Howard documentary on Jim Henson drops tomorrow on Disney plus.
Just a Reminder: Jim Henson Was a Human Being
mali muso
I’m basking in the glow.
MisterForkbeard
My wife literally called me at work to let me know she was putting a bottle of champagne in the fridge for me.
Gonna be a good night, I think.
Jeffro
I mentioned Mo (J6) Brooks calling for trumpov to drop out and be replaced “by a Republican of good character”
Here’s the Washington Monthly: trump should drop out
The middle of July is a long time away, eh GOP?
MinuteMan
—yet.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
I love the smell of felony convictions in the morning. (photo)
Bupalos
It’s the best outcome of the 3 that were possible. It’s worth celebrating that. But there’s no winning without peeling away all these fucking brainwashed followers and sycophants. And every institution that comes into play here also is further endangered.
I hope this has some effect in moving a few of them on the margin, I think it could, but that takes talking up the process, talking up what trial by jury means. This episode is probably going to harden some of the true cultists. There’s nothing with Trump and 2024 United States that isn’t messy.
waspuppet
The only thing of value he’s ever attained honestly in his life is the GOP nomination. Three times now.
MinuteMan
@Jeffro:
That’s a bit of an oxymoron these days; it didn’t use to be but there it is.
HeleninEire
It’s a great day.
Michael Cohen is on MSNBC. Rachel is asking great questions.
p.a.
Seen on intertubes: favorite number- 34-4-45
Baud
@Jeffro:
“Biden should set an example for the country and jointly drop out with Trump.” /NYT
BeautifulPlumage
Just got to the bar and am celebrating with the Happy Hour menu’s Balls & Toast and a rum & cran! Seems an appropriate dinner for today ..
Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.)
There’s something cathartic about seeing somebody who for his whole life has fucked people over, stepped all over them, get the outcome he always deserved. Our justice system [sic] kind of sucks on the whole. But today it came through for us all.
Ken
@Jeffro: Yes, obviously Trump dropping out would be the best course for the Republican party, as well as the decent and moral thing to do. But Trump doesn’t care about any of that.
They’re going to have to either force him out — and I see no way that’s going to happen, with his lock on delegates and the party apparatus — or buy him off with actual cash (in large amounts) and promises that his replacement will pardon him.
trollhattan
‘Tis a good day, indeed. Trump wriggles out of zero charges and the kiddo travels to her next adventure, having survived a “bug” that had her spiking a 105 fever as recently as last night.
Tomorrow, we move forward.
ArchTeryx
@Bupalos: The true cultists are not enough to get him elected. And this election, like almost all our 21st Century Presidential elections, is going to be decided on the margins. Peeling off some soft TCFG supporters is as good as new votes for Biden. A few 10s of thousands of people will probably decide our next President, so every vote that shithead doesn’t get counts.
Jeffro
here’s psycho Tucker Carlson’s take:
It’s very weird…he keeps trying to put it out there that trumpov’s life is in danger (he even said it TO him: “they’re going to have to kill you, aren’t they?“). He wants some fringe lunatic – left, right, doesn’t matter – to make trump a martyr. I think on some level he feels that’s the only use trump has to them now.
He’s evil in ways that even the Orange Moron isn’t.
Jeffro
@Baud: “…but Biden should go first, in the name of bipartisanship and ‘looking forward not back’ “, also probably the NYT
Frankensteinbeck
MAGA types love strength. They have a bizarre, chickenshit asshole definition of strength, but it’s still important to them to the point of obsession. Trump won’t lose any of his supporters for committing these crimes, but he might lose some for getting caught and punished. Loser stink.
Baud
@Jeffro:
“And when Biden drops out, his replacement shouldn’t be Kamala for reasons.” /all the NYT
Chief Oshkosh
@Jeffro:
Well, that’s DC for ya. In NYC, I believe the phrase is “drop dead, asshole!”
toine
Does this mean that as a convicted felon he isn’t allowed to vote? :-)
Jeffro
@Ken: I know – we all know – that trump doesn’t care about that. It’s “win the WH or go to prison” plus vengeance times a gazillion at this point, so he’s all in.
This is the first sign I’ve seen (and from Mo Brooks?!) of a ‘dump trump’ movement. And mid-July is a long way away.
Our blessed snooze media has been soooo focused on the potential for demonstrations and violence at the DNC this summer…what about the RNC? I think the odds of that just went through the roof.
Martin
I think Trump will be given time in sentencing. Here’s my reasoning:
In Trumps favor, he was President. That’s it.
Against him, this same judge sentenced Weisselberg to 5 months based on the DA sentencing recommendations for 18 similar counts which he pled guilty to. There’s a degree of consistency here in sentencing that needs to be defended, and a precedent has already been set.
Trump attacking the very legitimacy of the court is likely to cause the court to push back – both with DA sentencing and with the judge. There’s so far been no acceptance of guilt. There’s been constant denials and attacks against the system. The monetary penalty is trivial and I think all parties will wave it off as inconsequential in favor of a time sentence. The only remedy for the attack on the court is for the court to assert its authority from the DA to the judge, not in a prejudicial way, but I think it’s hard to find an example of this crime being violated that has a defendant more deserving of the maximum sentence – in terms of its scope (impacting a federal election for president) in terms of the defiance of the defendant, etc.
And I wonder if Bragg wouldn’t call someone like Hillary Clinton, who was the individual most impacted by the election interference to serve as a character witness, who could bring up the months of taunts by Trump of ‘lock her up’ – how readily he sought after such a sentence for her, and rallied his supporters to back that idea – that he possesses no deference for people who have held high office from being incarcerated, that he desires to use the legal system to punish his perceived enemies, and that the correct response here is to use the legal system in the manner it was intended – a jury found him guilty, the legislature provided a range of remedies, and the judge should apply them consistent with how he would sentence any other defendant with the same defiance for the legal system.
I think a light sentence would be taken by the public – at least the constituency of NY who these laws serve – as an injustice. I think the judge will come to that conclusion over the next month.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Jeffro:
Wow. even the liberal Mo Brooks is calling for Dump’s ouster
schrodingers_cat
Its great. Ground reports from Indian elections are also encouraging. The last phase of elections is underway in India. Saturday is the last day of the polls. Parts of Bihar, UP, West Bengal, Orissa and Punjab will be voting including Modi’s constituency of Varanasi (Holiest city for Hindus). He won by a monster margin last 2 times and an upset is unlikely. But BJP bigwigs including the PM have been campaigning there in the last few days. So I don’t know what that says.
smith
NYT Pitchbot:
Jeffro
@Baud: “Biden/Burgum ’24, minus Biden” – the NYT
“Right Dems? Quit being such fringe radicals and do what’s right for the country now that the other party’s guy has been convicted on 34 felony coun”…omg I can’t even finish, I’m laughing so hard…
laura
I’m in the hammock. Spouse and I went out for a pint hoist and were having a burger. I’m so deeply grateful for the jurors, the prosecutor team, Alvin Bragg, and sufficient amount of evidence to exceed a threshold of beyond a reasonable doubt of guilt on a particular chage on all 34 charges. I hope to sleep so deep and soundly tonight as a direct result.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Right. They shouldn’t have to do that.
@smith:
Doug is on fire today.
Baud
@Jeffro:
UNITY TICKET!
RSA
Because, as might be expected,
That tells us something about the perceived and actual character of Trump’s
lunatic henchmensupporters.schrodingers_cat
@Baud: The party line is that they want to it to be a historic win because this is most likely his last election. I don’t know whether I buy it.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
If it’s true, it seems like a foolish use of resources.
smith
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Felines are having a good laugh (photo)
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
New Yawkers are treating it like V-J day (photo)
YY_Sima Qian
@schrodingers_cat: Is there term limits for PM in India?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Today’s verdict was such a relief. Guilty on ALL counts! Especially after having to see that asshole’s face on the big screen on Sunday at the Coke 600. I didn’t pay hundreds of dollars for seats to attend a Trump rally, I paid to see a race. Thanks Richard Childress. Not!
I was siting in the enclosed 500 level seating and you’ll be pleased to hear there was actually quite a bit of booing when Trump first appeared on screen in my section. It was decidedly mixed.
The worst part, was when the track did a half-way Moment of Silence for fallen veterans, the track cameras showed Trump right afterwards. The same guy who called them suckers and losers!
What was amazing was nobody really reacted to my boos at all
hitchhiker
If Cohen hadn’t been so pissed off about getting run over by the trump bus he’d been diligently polishing with his own spit, none of this would have happened.
It almost didn’t happen. Barr tried very hard to get the charges related to Stormy removed from Cohen’s record. Then he tried to scare Cohen into shutting up.
I’m guessing that once Bragg actually met with Cohen, he started to understand that Cohen would be a persuasive witness when backed up by a lot of records.
Tehanu
Guilty, guilty, guilty! Times 11 plus 1!
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
👍
Pretty good for Ohio.
Steeplejack
@Ken:
I don’t think any president will be able to pardon Trump on state charges.
Suzanne
Trump is the aspirational avatar for every downwardly mobile white dude in this country. Not a subset of people who are used to FO after they FA!
Ken
@Steeplejack: Ah, but that’s because you don’t have the brilliant legal mind of Sam Alito.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Sanghis lie like other people breathe. They seem worried.
Adam L Silverman
Yet. They will be.
Baud
Wikipedia, via Reddit
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Very Republican of them
OGLiberal
Electorally, this means nothing.
Moving on…
schrodingers_cat
@YY_Sima Qian: No. But he is 75 now.
Kayla Rudbek
@Jeffro: I’m rooting for injuries
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
North Carolina, but yes it is. The Coca-Cola 600 attracts many people across the country, like the Indy 500 that’s held on the same day. That Sunday is always referred to as the Greatest Day in Motorsports. The Coke/World 600, the Indy 500, and the Monaco GP are held on the same day
Urza
Going to be a small baby boom in 9 months.
dmsilev
I’m actually a bit surprised he didn’t mouth off at the judge or the jury inside the courtroom. I guess his handlers are keeping him on sedatives right now; better that he falls asleep at his own trial than emits a certain-contempt-citation outburst.
NotMax
Buried downstairs, repeated. (and amended for better scansion) Very quickly cobbled up lyrics.
I am the very model of a modern slimeball criminal
Continually rant and rave and throw out threats subliminal
About the judge and jury I’ve nothing to say positive
They’re vermin exponentially most vomitive
;)
Suzanne
If you want to enjoy utter right-wing brain-melting, look at Rod Dreher on Xhitter.
Oh, yes. It’s not just about proving guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, it’s about metaphysics.
Everyone knows he did it. Hell, that’s the kind of thing that his supporters love about him. They just don’t think men should get punished for toxic behavior. And why not? Because they commit toxic behavior, and if they could do so at this scale, they would.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: It is a close competition. But the Sangh is worse IMHO.
Omnes Omnibus
@MinuteMan:
Yeah, in the thread below, our “non-hopium peddler” front pager offers this.
TBone
Such a lovely May eve 🎶🥰
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Unnh0T2Ftro&pp=QAFIAQ%3D%3D
Soapdish
Third to say it…
“And the real bonus is that none of the jurors or the judge or prosecutors were murdered by one of his lunatic henchmen.”
… yet.
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: A commenter would be banned for posting such comments.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
NC is like Ohio, so good.
Quadrillipede
I thought the prosecution had been able to prove that Pecker was corruptly running interference for Felon Plump throughout the GOP primary in 2016… 🤔
J. Arthur Crank
@Baud:
High in the middle, and round at both ends?
TBone
@smith: 💜
MomSense
Guilty even from the juror who gets their news from truth social. Wow.
I celebrated with a beer and an ice cream sandwich.
Baud
@Suzanne:
Hillary Clinton waits for her apology.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodingers_cat: I don’t think so. No one was threatened. No one used any slurs. Adam just predicted, as he usually does, that something terrible will happen.
Baud
@J. Arthur Crank:
More Republican than it should be.
TBone
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: thanks for posting both of those
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s a pretty bold prediction from him
ETA: Does Adam really refer to himself as a “non-hopium peddler”?
Jackie
@bbleh:
T C F(elon) G 😁 TCFG
I will happily get on board with this!
catclub
I rant and rave and piss and moan and throw out threats subliminal.
Scans better. You are welcome.
YY_Sima Qian
@schrodingers_cat: Somehow I doubt age will inhibit someone w/ Modi’s ego & sense of mission.
jonas
@ArchTeryx:
I think this is right. The hardcore cultists aren’t going to care. It probably makes them double down, in fact. Whatever. It’s the average, low-information voters who pull the R lever out of habit who might sit up now and go “Wut, wait? He’s just been convicted of 34 felonies?” and will, at the very least, just sort of spit on the ground and stay home in November. We can hope.
zhena gogolia
@Jeffro: Yeah, it’s really something.
Jackie
@HeleninEire: Michael looks/is exhausted. He will sleep MUCH sounder and peacefully than TCFG will tonight!
Martin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Monaco not really carrying its weight on that one any longer.
HumboldtBlue
AAaaaaaaannnnnnnnnddddddd THERE IT IS!!!!!
schrodingers_cat
@YY_Sima Qian: We will see. The Sangh brass has benched their leaders when they turned 75. It will all depend on how many seats BJP can win this time around
Also the domination of other states by Gujarat (Modi’s home state) is resented even by people in the BJP. That is another reason of disquiet within the ranks. If he wins again with a full majority there won’t be a challenger but if he doesn’t all bets are off.
Baud
@HumboldtBlue:
I’m not rewarding that with a click, but who’s the author.
SW
When the mob takes over a business, legal problems for the mob boss do not translate into a come to Jesus moment for the board of directors. House Republicans are promising vengeance for this insult to their Don. I’ve been getting increasingly hysterical text messages from the corn pone caucus promising to fart in our general direction.
J. Arthur Crank
@Baud: Yes, that too.
HumboldtBlue
@Baud:
By David Mastio Regular Opinion Correspondent
Aaaaaaannnnnnnnnddddd Frank Bruni!
For Trump, ‘Guilty May Not Matter’
DougJ link
YY_Sima Qian
@schrodingers_cat: Thanks for the explanation!
Odie Hugh Manatee
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Martin:
Not a huge F1 fan, but I’ve heard that the winner of Monaco is usually decided in qualifying the previous day
Baud
@HumboldtBlue:
Thanks. Never heard of him. Some local KC wingnut, I assume.
NotMax
@HumboldtBlue
As if. It’s a state trial, so no prez pardon no matter what.
J. Arthur Crank
@Baud: Apparently a newspaper editorial in Kansas City. I am going to assume the author(s) is(are) not very bright.
HumboldtBlue
@Baud:
I linked to him through Nichols who pretends to believe this is a piece to make one think. It’s dreadful and the only thing I thought was that this guy was an idiot.
@NotMax:
It’s almost parody.
Lyrebird
Nicely put. His switch from unrepentant to repentant j-ck-ss has had enormous consequences for the whole country!
It seems like he truly and genuinely cares about hiis family. Had some remaining humanity and decency. And now he is free. I didn’t get to see him this evening, but the times when I have seen him interviewed, he shows his massive relief.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@HumboldtBlue:
@NotMax:
LOL, where was this dude’s editor?
jonas
Three words: “Lock him up!”
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Mr DAW watched racing from about 7am until 9pm
Jeffro
@HumboldtBlue:
@NotMax:
I thought the gist of the piece was, “it’s now Biden’s job to petition Gov Hochul to pardon trumpov because reasons”?
helllllllllllllllllll no
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Hopefully a good sign. And hopefully NC doesn’t follow in Ohio’s footsteps
jonas
@HumboldtBlue:
That’s the NYT pitchbot, right?
ETA: Plus, Biden can’t pardon state crimes, so, yeah….
Jackie
@Baud: It’s paywalled.
Jeffro
@Baud:
Gary Abernathy, writing under a pseudonym
I kid, I kid! It’s just some putz, channeling his inner Gary Abernathy.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Honestly, I wouldn’t want to see any politics at a sporting event.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It’s very difficult to pass on that course. The streets are too narrow and twisting
Lyrebird
@schrodingers_cat:
Thank you for the updates.
FWIW, I don’t have a way to post a photo here, but I did some coloring yesterday and sent good thoughts your way. I am sorry for your loss of a mentor and family friend. I have no clue about mourning colors – instead I used a lot of orange and yellow, marigold tones.
Ken
From Paul Krugman: For he’s a jolly good felon, which nobody can deny.
Also, I know publishing deadlines forbid it, but wouldn’t it be cool if this Sunday’s strip could be eleven copies of the famous “Guilty! Guilty! Guilty!” panel, plus one last “Guilty!”
Frank Wilhoit
@Frankensteinbeck: Strength and intimidation are not the same thing.
jonas
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Really? Booing Trump at a NASCAR rally? Damn, whodathunkit?
Omnes Omnibus
@Dorothy A. Winsor: For example.
Sister Golden Bear
@RSA: NewsMax host is talking about the jurors being doxxed and harassied because they made Daddy angry
Frank Wilhoit
@toine: Anyone who is forbidden to vote should be all the more forbidden to hold any elective office.
Omnes Omnibus
@Frank Wilhoit: We know that.
Baud
@Sister Golden Bear:
“Doesn’t Alvin Bragg understand what awful people we are?”
Chief Oshkosh
@Martin: Not sure about that. As a race per se it’s a bore, but that’s true for any NASCAR race and for most Indy races. However, as a spectacle, Monaco still draws huge crowds and a wider TV audience, certainly than many other F1 races. Given the choice to attend any of the three, I’m on my way to the sunny Riviera (but would probably stay in Nice).
Elizabelle
@Martin: I agree with you.
Trump is not just some defendant. He held the highest office in the land, and obtained that in part by election interference. He’s also not an unknown to the judicial system.
I think he will get some time. We will find out, in July.
Manyakitty
@Jeffro: wow. I was not expecting that.
HumboldtBlue
@Sister Golden Bear:
Huh, the guy who lauds the internment of Japanese citizens is all for identifying and rounding up the jurors who convicted a criminal.
Shocking.
Noskilz
It has been a good day. What it will ultimately mean, who can say, but I am hopeful that this is yet another in a series of dire reversals for one of the most loathsome people to inflict themselves on the national scene.
Puts me in mind of Billy Joel’s Big Shot , and with a bit of luck perhaps we’ll get to see him end his days in prison.
Martin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yeah, the cars are too wide and too closely matched in speed to effect a pass without having a really high potential to damage the car. This race was actually run quite slowly because there was no reason for the leader to risk hitting a barrier and always had enough ability to cover for a car trying to pass.
Monaco worked better when the field was a lot more spaced out in terms of power, and when the cars were way smaller.
smith
Fireworks going off in my neighborhood in Chicago now. I was waiting for this — the same thing happened in 2020 when Biden was finally declared the winner.
Geminid
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Was this in Charlotte? That sounds like a nice road trip.
I saw a couple pictures of Trump at that race. He didn’t look like he wanted to be there. Between that and the Libertarian convention the night before, Trump had a really shitty weekend.
And now he’s having a really shitty week. Sad!
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
I’m old enough to remember when the usual suspects wanted to throw someone in jail for emails.
FastEdD
@Chief Oshkosh: I was at the Indy 500 last weekend. 350,000 of us stayed through torrential rains and watched a race that was EPIC. My throat is still sore from screaming.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: Those jurors are unprotected. NYPD always controls NY City. In this case it isn’t even reflexive control as the mayor is from the NYPD. And the NYPD overwhelmingly supports Trump. By tomorrow, journalists and others will have identified and published the names of the jurors. I expect that at least one, if not more, jurors, the prosecutors who are already publicly known, the judge, and his daughter will be targeted. Maybe not by Monday, but definitely before the sentencing phase.
We are in the midst of an ongoing hot rebellion/revolt that includes within it a civil war. All I’m doing is describing reality.
Martin
@Chief Oshkosh: Even the drivers are speaking out. The driver leading the world championship right now said this on the radio in the middle of the race: “Fuck me. This is really boring, I should have brought my pillow”.
The fans are starting to really hate the race because there’s no real point to running it.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Absolutely! You go to them to forgot about life for a bit
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I still need to watch the Indy 500. I heard it was pretty good. Unfortunate how Kyle Larson’s day ended. Qualified 5th and ended up 18th due to a speeding penalty I heard. It’s impressive how well he did, despite never having driven an Indy car until 3 or so months ago. Couldn’t even turn a lap for the 600 because it rained out. At least he has an option for another try next year
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Golden Bear: As I’ve been saying.
Ken
@Geminid: Maybe we’ll finally get that narcissistic collapse that some psychiatrists have been predicting. Although lately, they seem to be talking about dementia more.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
It’s all good.
It’ll still come down to GOTV efforts. And overcoming voter suppression efforts.
Ground game. Always ground game.
Martin
@Dorothy A. Winsor: It’s not just that. They used to be able to pass. But the newer cars are huge compared to the older F1 specs, and the older cars had things like a boost button that could give more power to pass, they had mid-race refueling so you could run different strategies, and the cars were a lot more ragged around that circuit at those speeds, so driver talent meant a lot more than now where the cars can trivially take the circuit with a lot of stability.
The race is a lot more interesting in the rain, driver skill really shows up then. But modern F1 cars corner at 6Gs and can brake at 6Gs. Outbraking another car is almost impossible there now.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I went to the Indy 500 once. A friend had a client who gave him grandstand tickets, I was bored. Oval racing doesn’t interest me in the slightest.
Avalune
The F1 cars are a lot bigger than they were in Monaco’s heyday.
Yay verdict! Boo the Leto/Ava house somehow managed to get the rona again despite hardly leaving the house outside work (me only) and grocery shopping. 😑
schrodingers_cat
@Lyrebird: Thanks for your kind thoughts. Mourning color is white in India. But yes marigolds are used in religious ceremonies in India and orange, ochre and saffron are the colors of sacrifice.
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: You are predicting the future, not reality. Which can become reality or not.
Quadrillipede
Oh I’m certain something terrible will happen, somewhere, to someone at some unspecified time in the future. It’s not really a useful or actionable prediction IMO…
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Adam L Silverman: @schrodingers_cat:
I think Adam’s concerns are certainly valid. There were people who brought guns on Jan. 6. They didn’t take them to the Capitol but they were prepared to do so.
I caught a few minutes of Rachel Maddow and she made the point that these people need protection. Judges, jurors, witnesses, prosecutors. The threats are real.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Guessing that targeting the judge/jurors won’t reflect well on his sentencing.
hofeizai
I work with one of the cultists, who is generally a pretty nice guy if one avoids politics. He told me he registered to vote for Trump, so I guess a lot of people will double down. It’s a pity, but I suspect this hurts him with decent people
MazeDancer
@Martin: Good point about Weissellberg. He was a first time felon, too.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@MazeDancer: on the one hand, first offender [“hah”, you say. Well, first conviction]. On the other hand, no remorse. We’ll see.
Adam L Silverman
@Mr. Bemused Senior: Several of the insurrectionists actually were armed in the Capitol with pistols.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: shooting back is an option.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Adam L Silverman: I’m thinking of the more organized crew of militia in waiting but I take your point.
Manyakitty
@Ken: I think he’s going to lose his shit when he actually faces a consequence for the first time in his entire miserable, substandard existence. Malignant narcissists don’t handle punishment well at all.
Ksmiami
@hofeizai: he is in fact, not a nice guy. He might be cordial to your face but he’s a moral black hole.
Another Scott
@Avalune: :-(
Best of luck that recovery/recoveries is/are quick and complete!
Cheers,
Scott.
different-church-lady
@Baud:
Except Trump’s not going to drop out.
bluefoot
@Martin:
I’m with you re Monaco. Consequently this year’s GP was a weird one. But I would still go if I get the chance.
Now I have to go pour one out for the verdicts!
Jeffro
oh look, Susan Collins has weighed in…I guess she feels like, lesson learned from his previous impeachments or not, it’s important not to draw the wrath of the orange felon
(despite her saying as recently as this March that she can’t support him)
this is my shocked face:
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Jeffro: I will refrain from quoting Captain Renault. [heavy strain]
different-church-lady
E. Jean Carroll has a comment.
Martin
And I think people are over indexing on people’s investment in trump assuming future performance will be reflective of past performance. There will be a lot of people in red states that will tell their neighbors they support Trump, because they live in a red area, that will have a pathological need to wash their hair on Election Day because Americans are great about projecting their aspirational personalities to society, even when internally they are wildly different. A lot of them won’t want to vote for Biden, but you know, if they just don’t show up and someone else elects Biden, what can they do about it?
Sure there will be a big cohort of die-hards, but not enough to carry an election. I agree they’re as dangerous as Adam suggests, but a big reason they’re dangerous is they know they can’t carry an election, so extrajudicial action is their go-to, and has been for a while now.
I think you’ll get more Mo Brooks here because the consequence of Trump at the top of the ballot is that Republican leaning voters, independents, etc. are going to look at the top of the ticket, see nobody they want to vote for, and stay home, and that’s going to kill downballot Republicans in single-digit R areas and maybe some double-digit R areas with an abortion ballot initiative.
And today, yeah, you get one reaction, but it’ll be different in a week and a month and 5 months. My guess is the die-hards get more die-hard and the non-die hards come to terms with reality and internalize that Trump is a felon, and start to see the overreach that Republicans are sure to do in response to this. The RNC convention is going to be a fucking shit-show. Trump is going to turn his rhetoric up several more notches, and if violence ensues, a LOT of voters that Republicans could otherwise reach on policy issues are going to nope the fuck out.
My instinct is that Adam is right here as he was leading into Jan 6, but at the same time, man the Trump supporters are being passive right now. They really don’t have their heart in it.
Lacuna Synecdoche
Baud @ 16:
I’m waiting for the inevitable NYT article:
O. Felix Culpa
The Jan. 6 convictions have dampened wingnut enthusiasm for violent action. There might still be some nutso like Paul Pelosi’s attacker who will heed the call, but the real life FO bit has caused the armchair commandos to…mostly stay in their armchairs.
gratuitous
I hope he gets community service. You know, wearing a day-glo vest, picking up trash along the highway, sweating a mixture of hamberder and KFC grease, complaining about how his grabber doesn’t work right, while the Secret Service detail says, “You missed a cup back there, Sir.”
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: I agree w/ you analysis, but the problem is that the die hards are probably much more than the 20+% “dead enders” we had been accustomed to, & they will not accept the loss at the ballot box. So defeating Trump in the coming election, & via a system already favoring the reactionary forces, might still lead to escalating violence post-election. In that kind of near hot civil war scenario, a lot of the local & federal law enforcement & some parts of the military are likely to be on the side of the reactionary forces, covertly of not overtly.
Still got to win the election, though.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Baud: When I hovered my cursor over the link, it was to the Kansas City newspaper opinion page (kansascity.com), I think
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: Yeah, there’s two different dynamics here – winning the election and dealing with the ongoing white nationalists who gave up on democracy ages ago and are more than happy to achieve their goals extralegally.
I think the winning the election part gets easier here, but I also think that dealing with the fascists also gets easier here. It moves their energy forward in time, but they would be more dangerous if Trump wins than if Trump loses. But I’ve been saying for a long time that with this kind of a culture war, there is no violence-free path. Violence is inevitable, and it may come sooner, but it’s always better when it’s not coming from inside the federal executive branch.
Chet Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, your comment reminded me of Barbara F. Walter’s book _How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them_. I suspect she’d agree with you 100% about what’s coming. It will be important to the traitors to ensure that no other citizens get it into their heads to hold TCFG or other leading MAGAts accountable. And until they hold power, there’s only one way to do it: the old-fashioned way they used to keep Black Americans from voting, holding office, running successful businesses, etc. Extrajudicial killing.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, a reminder…
Yup.
It’s too often difficult (or worse) to stand up to abuse of power. But it’s important.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chet Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: In Barbara F. Walter’s book on civil wars (I mention it in another comment), she sketches out a scenario where the Dems win, and as a result, civil unrest and assassinations break out all over the country. It is clear that this is a best-case scenario: the worst-case being that the MAGAts win (of course).
Still gotta win the election, but it won’t end with that. There’ll be years and years of putting out the flames of sedition.
Chet Murthy
@Another Scott: Tonight I’m having two beers instead of just one. My first, I toasted Stormy Daniels. She didn’t have to do what she did, and she certainly risked a lot: her life and her family. She deserves a statue in a place of great honor.
Jackie
@different-church-lady: It’s poetic that two strong women are who ultimately took TCFG down!
SpaceUnit
@Chet Murthy:
Well, yeah. Not sure about the statue though.
Chet Murthy
@SpaceUnit: I don’t see why not: without her brave testimony, there’s no way TCFG could have been indicted, much less convicted.
Anoniminous
@Martin:
Nobody knows how abortion will play out. Conservative Kansas women voted down abortion restrictions but nobody is saying they won’t vote Republican in November, ditto with the other ignorant hick states: Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, & etc. Maybe abortion will drive more young women to the polls in California, New York, Oregon, and Illinois but Biden is going to carry those states anyway. The battle is in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, that Biden took by 10,457, 12,670, 154,188, 33,596, 81,660, and 20,682 respectively, where a broad agreement abortion should be legal does not match 1:1 with D/R voting. For example, 55% of white women broke for Trump in 2020 but it would be foolish, per Kansas, to think they are against abortion by 55%.
SpaceUnit
@Chet Murthy:
Okay, maybe if it was placed outside the RNC Headquarters, wherever that is.
Or in front of Trump Tower.
ETA: And if the statue depicted her flipping the bird.
wjca
The thing is, it is a lot easier to identify someone as black than it is to identify them as not-reactionary. And if they just start killing people at random, they are going to get a harsh lesson in just how small a fraction of the population they are.
Lyrebird
I certainly agree on this point, and I also would bet that Judge Merchan and whoever works security there at that court have been keeping that in mind the whole time. Not sure if non-NY/NJ based commenters will recall that a judge in that area went through having her husband and son shot not so long ago, and currently (ETA: as all o’y’all know) GA DA Willis can’t live in her own house. Their bravery, and Jill Biden’s, is outstanding. On better days I use it as inspiration.
Chet Murthy
@wjca: That’s why they’ll need to target (*target*) people like these jurors, these prosecutors, and their family.
Ishiyama
The jury system: preserving our liberties since Runnymede:
“No freeman shall be fined or bound, or dispossessed of freehold ground,
Except by lawful judgment found and passed upon him by his peers.”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chet Murthy:
I don’t personally believe doing that would have the desired effect they would want. Like Martin notes, violence would cause a lot of softer Rs and independents to be freaked out that might otherwise vote Republican. I expect it would galvanize people like us to not give in to literal terrorists and oppose them all the more
Martin
@Anoniminous: You’re misunderstanding the dynamic, I think. You’re presenting this as though 100% of the population votes, which is how most people process these stats. The effect of the initiative is to influence who votes, not how they vote. Voters not particularly energized about Biden turn out because they are energized about the abortion measure and while there also vote for Biden.
Biden doesn’t need to win Kansas, and won’t win Kansas. But look at Arizona with a ballot measure. AZ-01 is R+3. AZ-02 is R+6. AZ-06 is R+3. Those all have R incumbents. Those are all at-risk seats with an energized D turnout and a depressed R one. Biden may not win Montana, but it might give Tester a more likely win.
This is why the polls are pretty terrible because the turnout models are garbage, and for the last 4 years have consistently overestimated R turnout.
Steeplejack
Meme sent to me by a friend:
Another friend wanted to know if Melania will be dusting off the “I really don’t care. Do U?” jacket.
Martin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The problem is that if Trump and the RNC know that would have bad electoral outcomes, they are completely powerless to control the monster they created.
laura
It’s been decided! This is the celebratory cake I’ll be baking: https://bakesbybrownsugar.com/apricot-cake/
Comrade Bukharin
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Trump is planning a Night of the Long Knives if he takes power.
Chet Murthy
@Comrade Bukharin: I’m assuming it.
Martin
@Comrade Bukharin: He’s planning on cleaning out the federal government entirely, including non-political appointments.
SpaceUnit
@Martin:
I don’t think it’s just the turnout models.
I’ve gotten calls from supposed pollers, and I never answer them. Like hell I’m going to announce I’m a Biden supporter to some unknown entity on the other end of a phone call. Sure, caller ID might show it as ACME Polling or the New York Times, but who really knows. That can be spoofed. It could be some GOP ratfucking operation, compiling lists of people in order to mess with their voter registration data. Change an address, etc.
Paranoid? Maybe a little. But it’s 2024, and I’m sure I’m not the only one thinking that way. And I’m also sure that the Republicans would do it if they could.
So I don’t trust the polls at all. And I think trump is going to get clobbered.
jonas
@SpaceUnit: I disagree — if the caller ID shows a polling organization and the pollster identifies themselves as such, I try to do it. Sometimes it’s clearly a push-poll being sponsored by some outfit with a clear partisan agenda (“Do you agree or disagree that your tax dollars should be going to give illegal migrants Cadillacs and free T-bone steaks while our veterans struggle with homelessness?” Yes, I do, sir!) . But other times can be a more straight-forward national poll of some kind and I want to be sure my voice is heard. What is throwing off polls these days is not some nefarious conspiracy, but trying to construct a representative sample of registered vs. likely voters from both parties given how many people have cut their landlines or simply don’t answer the phone anymore. For that reason, they tend to oversample conservative voters.
Martin
@SpaceUnit: No, it’s just turnout models. So, the pollsters are only working off of a polling sample of maybe 3,000 respondents, out of 300 million people. You not answering doesn’t impact that.
But the respondents – say a 23 year old female black registered Democrat get mapped onto those demographics and weighted by the turnout model. Given that the electorate is generally pretty locked into their candidates here, and the size of the undecided electorate is vanishingly small, the entire exercise is really about the turnout model because the poling sample isn’t really changing – not materially. What’s changing is the turnout. Trump got 11 more voters in 2020 over 2016 and Biden got 18 million more voters in 2020 over Hillary in 2016. That +7 million voter advantage was the margin of victory. Where they were located mattered for the electoral college, but apart from that, the turnout model told you everything you needed to know.
jonas
@Comrade Bukharin: He’s pretty much stated that’s exactly what he plans to do — end non-partisan civil service and replace all government employees with partisan hacks who will take a loyalty oath to him personally. So basically, you know, full-on fascism.
NotMax
When do the Zelig wannabees start flooding the airwaves claiming they were on the jury (but weren’t)?
Comrade Bukharin
@jonas: I think he’ll go after the Bidens the Clintons the Obamas, congressional Democrats, RINO Republicans, judges and juries that have ruled against him, and liberal members of the media.
SpaceUnit
@jonas:
@Martin:
My point is that I suspect that a lot of Dem voters share my sensibilities, general wariness, and exhaustion and simply don’t have much interest in engaging with polling outreaches.
I believe we’re being under-sampled.
Chet Murthy
@SpaceUnit: I’m 59. And even an old like me never picks up except if he recognizes the number, or is *waiting* for a call. I mean never. I don’t try to figure out if the call is from a pollster or something: if I don’t recognize the number (e.g. it doesn’t map to a name in my contact-list), I just ignore it.
I have difficulty believing the youngs are so different.
SpaceUnit
Also, If one has to dial more than 200 phone numbers on the average to get a single response it’s never going to reveal a reliable sample of public opinion. Polling is broken.
SpaceUnit
@Chet Murthy:
As I understand it, younger people are even less likely to answer unknown numbers.
wjca
The sooner the better. Also, the more the better.
It would (will), in Steve Bannon’s immotal words, “flood the zone with shit.” And thus improve the chance that, when someone gets attacked, it will be one of the wannabees getting his 5 minutes of fame. Rather than an actual juror.
Steeplejack
@Baud:
David Mastio, recently hired by the Kansas City Star (last November) but formerly with USA Today, the Washington Examiner and the Washington Times.
Martin
@SpaceUnit: You misunderstand sampling. You keep dialing until you get enough democrats in the polling sample.
But even if you don’t it still doesn’t matter, because everything is weighted against the turnout model. This is a really important point, so I’m going to expand on it here.
Let’s say I sample everyone in this thread on whether they think Trump will go to prison or not and I collect demographic information in the process. I then go and get the demographic breakdown of every poster on this site, including the ones not in this thread. I take the sample I took from this thread, normalize the results along demographics, and then weight those by the total demographics of all posters here. Even if you undersample on the polling, so long as you have a sufficient statistical sample, that’ll get properly weighted.
There is no under-sampling in these polls. However, if your model can’t predict who will vote, then your weighting is all wrong. And the turnout models have been broken at least since Dobbs and arguably since 2018. The sampling part is easy. It’s expensive because people won’t pick up, but you can just keep dialing. The turnout model is really damn hard.
I did college admissions and everything lived and died on the yield model, which is largely the same thing – who would actually take the offer. In our case we had perfect information on who we sampled – that was every student we admitted. But we then modeled out what the freshman class would look like based on the model told us about different kinds of students likelihood of enrolling. That part is incredibly difficult, and that’s where the election polls live and die. If your turnout model is wrong, your poll is worthless.
My favorite poll, by the way, is the US Dornslife Daybreak poll. It doesn’t try to predict turnout, but it polls the same people over and over on various issues. It’s informative for how the total electorates views are shifting on various issues and candidates. It can’t predict the election, but it predicts trends within the election.
ron
@Steeplejack: and as it says in the fine print at the bottom:
“David Mastio, who served as a political appointee in the George W. Bush administration.”
He’s basically saying give in to terrorists and appease the criminals.
dc
How representative is a person who picks up the phone to an unknown caller compared to the large majority who don’t, demographics being equal?
SpaceUnit
@Martin:
There’s no way to correct for that dismal response percentage.
If these poll results were presented in the form of published scientific research the peer review would be merciless. The methodology is no longer adequate.
karen marie
@Martin:
From my experience of 35+ years of transcribing criminal trials – granted, in Massachusetts, not New York – acknowledgement or acceptance of guilt is not a factor in sentence determination. Convicted people have rights of appeal. While a judge can take a convicted defendant’s acknowledgement and apology for criming into account, they cannot punish a person for continuing to assert their innocence.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Steeplejack:
Shocker!
SpaceUnit
@dc:
Thank you! You get it.
Steeplejack
Pronouns count!
mrmoshpotato
Would one guest a day be allowed to punch Dump in his disgusting, orange, traitorous, fascist face that sucks Kremlin ass hole?
cckids
Late to the thread, but – best comment of the night, I saw on FB –
Trump finally won the popular vote.
I love it. Suffer, traitor.
Timurid
So LG&M decides to kick the plug out of the wall hours after the Trump conviction. Sometimes I wonder about their motives…
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@SpaceUnit:
it’s true. in the last mid term “experts” said, based on polling, repugs would win a “red wave” with 26 to 35 seats in the house and the senate outright.
Instead:
JWR
@HumboldtBlue:
Hahaha! “Paperwork infractions” my arse.
Madhuparna Mitra
Martin
@SpaceUnit: Ok. Well, I did population sampling and modeling for 30 years so what the fuck do I know.
mrmoshpotato
@cckids: Hahaha! That’s good.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
Ruckus
@HeleninEire:
Michael and Rachel brought the heat. At least it seems like this full on crapfest is at last fully out in the open and very likely going to cost djt everything.
Couldn’t happen to a more deserving person.
Sister Golden Bear
@wjca: Especially during Pride month it is often easy to identify someone who’s LGBTQ (and presumably not-reaction despite the homocons).
We may be a convenient target for their anger, in a year when security warnings were already high pre-verdict. Still not gonna stop me from attending Pride, nor flying my Pride flag at home.
karen marie
This made me LOL:
Omnes Omnibus
Fascinating that holding Trump accountable is now supposed to hasten the end of the Republic. I thought that not holding him accountable was going to do that. I somehow get the feeling that some people are just emotionally invested in that result. I am pretty sure that it’s not healthy.
SpaceUnit
@Martin:
I guess you know everything.
Ruckus
@Ken:
I believe that sfb has finally fully shit the bed.
We have reached the end of his rope.
He has skated through everything – up till now.
At some point the criminal always gets caught – if they are big enough or stupid enough or just downright asshole enough. And he is all three.
SpaceUnit
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
Those are good examples.
ETA: Also the polling before the Kansas referendum on abortion access after the Dobbs decision. Not even close.
Ruckus
@Martin:
I agree.
Eolirin
@dc: With respect to who they’re going to vote for, I would expect their demographic information to massively swamp the difference between phone answerer and non-answerer. So as long as the sample itself is representative demographically, I would expect it to be pretty valid; i.e. they don’t only do phone calls to Hispanics and Latinos in English and they get enough young people in the sample, so they’re calling cellphones.
This is all hugely expensive, but it’s not impossible. Getting the voter model right is, as Martin points out, very much the hard part though. Predicting results is different than just looking at the sample of respondents, since those don’t perfectly correlate with each other. Polling would be a lot more accurate if literally everyone voted.
SpaceUnit
@Eolirin:
And if everyone answered the phone.
Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride
@karen marie: In California, where I was an appellate court staff attorney, early acknowledgment of guilt can be a factor justifying a lighter sentence. (If you wait till after conviction, probably not.) On the other hand, what Trump is doing isn’t just maintaining his innocence — it’s claiming that the entire process was corrupt, in the teeth of the evidence and his own refusal to testify. The proper response to that claim at sentencing is “I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”
JWR
I went to the inaugural California 500, which was held in the same venue as the first California Jam, which I also attended, and a friend and I were bored and started wandering around the track, finally climbing up a small hill around one of those under-the-track walkways, and we got right up to the track itself and damn were those cars ever going fast! We watched for a while until a security guy shooed us away.
Chet Murthy
@SpaceUnit: @Martin: Maybe it would help to ….. simplify things ? I’m just a mere programmer, but from watching these things a long time, it seems like there’s a simpler way of explaining things — a …. model of sorts, that’s simple enough that we can argue about its characteristics in a clear way.
Suppose that there are three kinds of voters: Red, Green, Blue. We want to know how they’ll vote in some election. Or how they feel about some issue. Suppose that the positions they can take are numbered 1,2,3,4. You cant go out and poll every voter. So instead, you poll a list of voters of all these colors, and get their answers. Now, when you make those calls to poll, a lot of people don’t answer. But if you make enough calls and get enough answers, you can get *enough* answers from R, G, B voters, than then you can just multiply by the # of R, G, B voters in your population, to understand how the population as a whole will respond.
Isn’t that what’s going on here? It seems like there are a lot of problems with this approach:
Maybe there are more problems? Is this a reasonable model for what’s going on?
wjca
An assertion of innocence wouldn’t be problematic.
But ranting about everyone involved? Violating (repeatedly) the gag order? Etc., etc., etc.? It isn’t the fact of the assertion, so much as how it is being asserted.
If you accuse the judge of being biased, currupt, and so on, when the judge is being extremely careful to avoid doing anything that might get him reversed on appeal? Well, that judge is not going to be inclined to cut you any slack at all. He may not punish you directly for it. But while his sentencing will remain, carefully, within the range of sentences for similar crimes by first time
offendersconvicts, they may well be on the high end of that range.Eolirin
@SpaceUnit: You don’t need everyone to answer the phone! You just need a representative sample of people to answer the phone. Unless there’s a strong lean that distorts the results based on phone answerer vs non-phone answerer for the data you’re collecting, it really shouldn’t matter that much.
You need to demonstrate that that difference exists in a large enough way to slant the results, because it isn’t a given at all.
If everyone answered the phone polls would be a lot cheaper, but they wouldn’t necessarily be that much more accurate.
frog
@MinuteMan:
“—yet.”
If Trump gets reelected, I expect him to take an active and personal interest in changing that situation.
Chet Murthy
@frog: Stormy Daniels and her partner (husband?) were interviewed, and they were quite clear that if TCFG is re-elected, they’ll have to flee to another country.
SpaceUnit
@Chet Murthy:
I think current polling doesn’t take in account the temperamental spectrum of voters ( as well as their phone-answering habits ).
Polling outfits seem hooked on the narrative offered by our MSM that Democrats and Republicans are basically mirror-images of one another with similar but oppositional mindsets, and that there’s a single opinion methodology that can accurately reach them both.
Or kinda sorta what you said.
Chet Murthy
@SpaceUnit: I was just laying out a model, b/c it’s easier to argue about a simplified model (I thought). So I think you’re saying that #1, #5 are problems that polling outfits aren’t dealing with ?
I’d think that the biggest problem is #2, but hey, I’m a civilian. Overall, I’d note that we like to think of ourselves a unique individuals. But sadly we’re not, and to a great extent we’re predictable based on some modest data-set. I don’t have to like this, for it to be true.
karen marie
@Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride: Lightening a sentence is very different than worsening a sentence. Judges are not supposed to sentence someone for anything other than what they are convicted for.
SpaceUnit
@Eolirin:
We were having a similar discussion here several months ago regarding a NYT poll. One of our commenters ( I believe it was Another Scott, apologies if I’m wrong ) did a deep dive into the fine print and details of that poll and discovered that their response rate was .4%. Let that sink in. It means that they need on the average to dial over 200 numbers in order to get a single response.
If that strikes you as representative then we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Ishiyama
It might be a fine day for Donald to take up sniffing glue.
Eolirin
@Chet Murthy: #1 is pretty simply resolved in election polling; we’re only interested in choices between the candidates and none/other(write ins usually). There literally isn’t another kind of voter.
#2 requires looking at voting data, census data, voter registration data, and a bunch of other stuff, but the information is out there. You can get this wrong, but if you do, your polling results should look pretty bad pretty consistently, and there are ways to check it to some degree of “correct”. This is probably a source of some degree of noise though.
#3 We don’t necessarily need them to be, as long as the people lying aren’t lying in a systematically skewed way. People fibbing in different directions should average out given large enough sample sizes.
#4 There are definitely rules for this as part of statistical modelling generally. So this isn’t really a question mark for the polling companies.
#5 This is potentially an open question, but I’m pretty sure you’d be able to tell if it wasn’t, at least after a few elections.
The biggest problem is still the one that Martin identified; respondents to polls and people who vote are not perfect correlates because not everyone votes, likely voter screens are… iffy at best, and modern elections swing more on turnout than sentiment.
Burnspbesq
Yet.
Eolirin
@SpaceUnit: A response rate percentage, no matter how small (well, within reason), doesn’t tell you anything about the representativeness of the sample; you need to look at who actually responded for that. What was the final sample size of respondents, were there enough respondents of the important demographic types for modeling them to be statistically sound, etc.
It does tell you that you need to call a truly ridiculous number of people to get a statistically valid response, but that’s all that you get from that. If you called literally everyone in the country with that response rate, you’d have over a million respondents. I don’t think anyone would call a poll with a million respondents suspect. At least, not on the basis of the sample size. You’d need to show that the sample itself was fundamentally non-representative for the information you’re trying to collect, and you need to show that respondents vs non respondents have systematic differences. Otherwise you’re looking at things that should mostly get washed out in the averages. The early phone polling when only rich people owned phones was biased in this fashion. See Dewey Defeats Truman! But you can’t just assert it on the basis of low response rates.
We know, for instance, that english speaking hispanics and spanish only speaking hispanics have different voting patterns, and if you build your hispanic modeling off of english only calls, you’re going to run into a problem. It’d need to be something similar to that. I’m not saying that there definitely aren’t any issues there. I’m just saying what you’re asserting as evidence for a response bias isn’t actually evidence of a response bias.
Brachiator
@Chet Murthy:
If Trump is re-elected, we’ll all have to flee to another country.
SpaceUnit
@Eolirin:
With a .4% response rate, I would.
Chet Murthy
@Brachiator: It’s certainly my plan. The only way I’m stickin’ around is if my state government makes it clear they’re going to defy, and with armed force if necessary.
SectionH
For once I’m not reading all the comments first…
Report from San Diego: young and old where I hang out were just grinning and happy. Met one old white guy who was as easily as happy as we were. He told us he’d been a lawyer and had been in That courtroom. We all just laughed. He lives here now. So was the 21st c. born young woman, native SD was just happy too, a few Asian fisher people too… it was pleasant.
And then Dark and Stoney… came into my mind. We’d been thinking about a Cava or Prosecco or some fizzy white wine, buy damn, son. So we buggered off to BevMo. And I’m old and don’t walk well ever, but I went in, looking for the rum and ginger beer, and the lovely young women, one black, one white knew what I was getting at, and the checkout woman, well we were all fist bumping.
And our neighbors are all like YES. So from Point Loma to Hillcrest, many people – old and young, black and brown are just tonight laughing.
Chet Murthy
@SpaceUnit: I think that what Eolirin is trying to say, is that if you did that, with only that evidence (a low response rate), you’d be incorrect. And I have to agree.
Eolirin
@Chet Murthy: Yes, this.
Eolirin
@Chet Murthy: Yes, this.
Eolirin
Goddammit. Sorry all. Internet hiccup.
SpaceUnit
@Chet Murthy:
Okay, we’ll just agree to disagree. No disrespect to anyone in this discussion.
And I’m going to bed. It’s midnight here. Night all.
Eolirin
@SpaceUnit: No offense taken or intended. Good night.
Brachiator
@Eolirin:
You don’t need large numbers for a meaningful sample. This is elementary statistics.
As others have noted, pollsters have to spend more time trying to reach people because of the shift to smartphones and phone numbers that don’t always accurately reveal the person’s city or state.
Years ago, I was the administrator for the phone system used by the people who ran one of the LA Times polls. Just from hanging around while they were conducting the poll, I could see that they had an issue with hang-ups. So the trick was to keep dialing to get enough responses in the time allotted for polling.
People who do polling currently also note that there is a problem of conservative people not responding to pollsters. There is an anger, a surliness and a suspicion that their views will not properly be represented. This is added to general problems getting people to answer questions, and the problem of people lying to pollsters.
Pollsters try to adjust.
ETA. I know that there are numerous experts among jackals here. For all I know, you may be a professor of statistics, and I am not telling you anything you don’t already know.
SectionH
FFS s.b Stormy.
sab
@Eolirin: 2 am and the internet hamsters strike again.
NotMax
Final draft (I like this better).
I am the very model of a lying felon criminal
I whine and rant and rave ’cause my intellect is minimal
About the judge and jury I’ve nothing to say positive
They’re vermin exponentially most vomitive
;)
Eolirin
@Brachiator: Martin definitely knows a hell of a lot more than I do about this stuff.
NotMax
Usually speak to Mom by phone on the weekend. Thursday, she called me* to wax enthusiastic about the verdict.
This after talking her down last weekend from what began on her end as an “all the signs point to an acquittal, don’t they” conversation
*Unheard of on a weekday unless she’s experiencing tech problems.
frog
Husband. He was working on the sets for some of her videos.
Martin
@Chet Murthy: That’s generally what’s happening here.
Now, regarding 5, there are ways to address this – knock doors, exit polls, etc. where you have other ways to interact with voters, but there’s been no hypothesized difference between these groups that I’ve seen proposed. It’s largely unknowable, and nobody has given any theory why they would actually be different.
But sampling is again, pretty easy. It’s straightforward, the statistics for sample size are pretty easy. It’s expensive because of non-response, so you have to call a LOT, which has driven a lot of pollsters out as the cost of contracting a poll have gotten too expensive for a lot of groups, but there’s nothing particularly uncertain about this. You just have to grind out the work.
Again, the turnout model that you apply this to is fucking black magic. The above process is used to build that turnout model (not from the same data, by the way – you don’t reuse that because that would propagate biases – you do that as a separate exercise with a bunch of other techniques, but this gets WAY more complicated because you can’t use a national model. AZ turnout is likely to be up because of their ballot initiative relative to CA, and it’s likely to be up with one part of the voting base. States with competitive senate races will likely see stronger turnout than the ⅓ of states with no senate races. There are all manner of local – sometimes VERY local issues which affect that which are difficult if not impossible to capture in a turnout model.
And again, to SpaceUnits point – the polling information gathered on the ballot initiative tells you, responsibly, nothing about the presidential preference. You can’t infer one from the other – you have to collect that explicitly. But both issues ride on the same turnout model in that place. The number of people who will turn out for the ballot measure and not vote for president or v/v is very small, which is why you can use a ballot measure to drive other races on the ballot. That was my whole fucking point.
And toward my point on 4, if you don’t pick up, they’ll keep calling until they get someone who matches your demographic profile either individually or in aggregate who will pick up. There is no under sampling at least within the established categories. Now, you can argue that getting a gay/straight demographic would be informative, and it probably would, but in a sample of 3,000 people you’re probably capturing that pretty equally unless there’s some reason to believe that there’s a difference in how gay/straight people pick up the phone. So that theory also needs to be put forward. But adding that variable is unlikely to add much to the existing models which are pretty robust, and would add disproportionately to the cost.
Put another way, I’m not aware of any national polls that have systematic sampling errors. You will get some intermediate polls that have that, but they’ll look like outliers in the larger polling space. All of the polling problems that are identified either reflect an incorrect turnout model, or an incorrect interpretation by the public – like in 2016 when neither Clinton nor Trump ever had a majority in polls, and the undecideds broke almost entirely toward Trump in the last days of the campaign (but her emails). Clinton led, and a lot of Dems called for a polling error, but the polling was right – the problem was that she lost effectively 100% of the undecided voters – and the models couldn’t predict how they’d vote, because they themselves didn’t know.
Rasmussen was notorious (still might be) for changing their turnout model after the primary process to one which was very favorable to Republicans to one that was more realistic. So in the leadup to the conventions, they’d project a R blowout, and then after the conventions they’d fit more in the pack. Same sampling model, different turnout model. Again, sampling is easy.
Martin
@SpaceUnit: Neither the sampling nor turnout models are centered on political affiliation. The media may interpret the polls in that way, but that’s more your fault for listening to them rather than learning how to read the poll yourself.
No change in methodology for conducting the poll is needed, because the political affiliation isn’t a factor in how it’s conducted.
Martin
@SpaceUnit: You understand that a 3,000 person sample has a representation rate of .00001% no matter how many people refuse to answer the phone. How many people you fail to get to pick up the phone is completely immaterial.
SectionH
@NotMax: I could almost dance to it. Srsly Good on you.,
rachel
@NotMax:
I knew a guy named Donnie the Slob
Who’s specialties were grift and snow-job
He thought he was the smartest guy in town
But I found out last Monday
That Don got locked up Sunday
They’ve got him in the jailhouse way downtown
[Chorus]
He’s in the jailhouse now, he’s in the jailhouse now
I told him once or twice
To quit cheating at golf and on his wives
He’s in the jailhouse now
Oh-lay-ee-ee-ee, oh-dee-oh-dee-ee-ee
Ah-dee-oh-lay-ee-ee-dee-del-ee-dee, oh-lay-ee
(with apologies to Jimmie Rogers)
Fair Economist
@laura: Looks delicious!
VFX Lurker
@SectionH: Thank you for sharing this story. I don’t know what the future holds, but today was a good day. ❤️
SpaceUnit
@Martin:
But it’s not, Martin. We have no idea what trends may exist in that other 99.9% of the unresponsive population. The notion that we can achieve some desired result by endlessly expanding this impoverished data sample is a futile exercise in statistical entropy.
Again, it’s way too late and I really am going to bed (seriously, this time). I think you should too.
Apologies if I came across as a jerk. Have a good night.
TBone
@SectionH: 💙
TBone
Heather Cox Richardson typed out the word GUILTY thirty-four times in a row in today’s letter 😆
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-30-2024
Not in all caps like I just did. I like the emphasis.
NotMax
@TBone
From gilty to guilty. 34 times.
Tony Jay
Good morning!
What’s most pleasing to me about all this is that Stench now has a unanimous criminal conviction for ELECTION INTERFERENCE.
mrmoshpotato
@JWR: That’s cool.
Jackie
@Eolirin: I have my phone set to silence calls that aren’t in my contacts. So unless they leave a voicemail, I don’t call them back. Pollsters don’t leave messages and should I, out of curiosity, call a number back, it’s generally a “non-working” number. So I never get polled.🤷🏼♀️
SectionH
@VFX Lurker: Damn son, thank you. You’re so welcome.
I’m working on taking the good days. This was one.
Martin
@SpaceUnit: But your focus on the unresponsive callers has no factor. Either the sampled population is representative of the electorate or it isn’t unless you can make an assertion that the people who don’t pick up are in some way correlated with voting patterns, and I can’t think of any such assertion.
So putting that aside, you’re now down to basic sampling theory which is hundreds of years old and really widely studied. Your argument collapses then to ‘if you can’t get every citizen to answer the phone, than the sample is invalid’, which is a take, I suppose but ignores basic sampling theory in statistics which is so widely demonstrated I couldn’t even think of where to begin.
There are valid questions around Chet’s first question – what are valid demographic cohorts which give predictive information, as that’s something which presumably should change over time. And we shift those cohorts over time – who we consider latino, who we consider female. Would an AFAB trans masc vote in a manner consistent with males on issues like abortion which directly impact them in a different way than other males, for instance. Or would it be more predictive to capture their trans status and build a trans/cis cohort? Probably, but the relative size of the population wouldn’t materially impact the outcome. Similarly is latino overly reductive, failing to capture say the cuban population tendency to vote R over D? Again, too small to be materially impactful outside of local races in say Florida.
But those aren’t matters of sampling, rather matters of suitable demographic variation among the electorate and trend analysis, and whether they are stable enough over time to bother creating new cohorts, whether they show sufficiently differentiation to bother, and whether they are large enough to make the model more predictive. See, it doesn’t matter if your sampling is off on small demographics if your uncertainty (usually around 4%) is large enough to swamp those effects.
lowtechcyclist
@Suzanne:
Cutting right to the essence.
Like someone else said, the Trump cult is like a pride movement for bad people. They think he should get away with this shit because they think they should be able to do bad shit and get away with it.
Aussie Sheila
@Ishiyama:
Except ‘ by his peers’ referred to the Barons and Lords by and for whom that document was written. I’m past tired of the reverence that the Magna Carta is given by liberals everywhere. It was written to enlighten the Monarch that the Lords were his peers. Nothing else.
Chris Johnson
@Jeffro: I still think Carlson is working for Putin, so him going extra hard on ‘they are going to kill Trump, you watch’ is worth keeping track of.
I think that’s accurate but it is assuming ‘they’ (as in Putin’s people) CAN do that, more or less Epstein the guy, and I’m not convinced ‘they’ can. It’s not like the justice system has never dealt with mobsters before, and the Secret Service is in the control of Biden now so it may be more difficult to get somebody in there to whack Trump. I think it’s an accurately perceived intention but intention and execution are two different things. Protecting the convicted felon from getting whacked by his fellow criminals is kind of important and I think it’s possible, and no special drama will happen. We’ll see.
Chris Johnson
@Adam L Silverman: You know, back in the day when I got angry with you pushing Kremlin narratives I sure got a bunch of blowback from jackals defending their local boy, which is goodwill I respected but which I think you’ve kind of squandered.
All I’m saying is that taking the Tim Pool line that all is doom, violence and inevitable civil war on the day that Trump faces normal justice from the legal system as should normally happen, is not a good look. If things are as you say why are there not crowds of the protestors you claim are inevitably going to turn to very effective assassins?
I’m real disappointed. I will leave it to other people who haven’t been busted calling you a Tim Pool-like propaganda peddler, to sort out the details, ‘cos it’s really not my business, but I’m disappointed that you need to kick it into high gear right now. And I am very disappointed that you are trying to push the narrative that now it is time to kill the judge and all the jurors just to show that doom is inevitable. I consider that irresponsible messaging that isn’t backed up by reality.
Nettoyeur
@Baud: Oh please
Another Scott
@Chris Johnson: As I said downstairs, none of us are very good at predicting the future. It’s human to occasionally get way out over or skis talking about what we think is likely or might happen. But if it were easy to know the future, the world would be a very different place. (People musing on a nearly top 10,000 blog would be doing it elsewhere, for one thing.)
We should talk about the present more.
Thursday was a very, very good day for the rule of law. The fact that some monsters may – may – act out does not change that one bit.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
O. Felix Culpa
@Another Scott: Agreed on all points. There is also a difference between saying “this is a possible to probable outcome” and “THIS WILL BE THE OUTCOME.” Adam brings a lot of information and expertise to the table, but I part ways with predictions regarding human behavior that fall in the latter camp.
Super Dave
@MinuteMan: You beat me to the punch.
Unfortunately, I fear someone, or more than someone is likely to be killed before this is over. I hope the jurors remain anonymous, and the judge and prosecutors are protected.
Super Dave
@Adam L Silverman: I’m late to the party here, but I agree with your assessment. There are way too many nuts out there with way too many weapons, and Trump will continue to send the signals to act in his behalf. Sad but true.