(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping note: The girls are good. There won’t be much to report until the next round of chemo starts Monday. Thank you all, again, for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations!
It’s been another long day, so I’m going to keep tonight shorter as well.
Air raid alerts are either up or being added to the alert map for all of eastern Ukraine. Poltava Oblast just went up (5:50 PM EDT).
Kharkiv is under attack!
“The occupiers hit a five-story residential building. There is a fire. There may be people under the rubble,” Head of Kharkiv Military Administration reported.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 30, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
In the Near Future, the Issue of New Air Defense Systems and Co-Production Will Be Actively Discussed with Partners – Address by the President
30 May 2024 – 20:54
Dear Ukrainians!
Briefly about this day.
First, I would like to thank all of our defenders of the sky – the warriors of the mobile firing groups, our Air Force, and all air defense units that defend our cities and communities from Russian missiles and drones every day and night. Your effectiveness, your accuracy, warriors, is very important, and we are working as hard as possible to add strength and capabilities to our air defense. In the near future, this issue will be actively discussed with partners – new air defense systems and co-production, and in particular drone production – increasing the volume and attracting special investments in such production – both co-production with our partners and work in our country. I thank everyone in the world who supports Ukraine in this regard and who convinces other leaders and other states to help. We already have some confirmations from leaders about enhancing our air defense capabilities, and the key is to implement them in full and add more relevant agreements.
Second. I held several meetings with our foreign policy team to discuss the necessary results for this June. We are thoroughly planning the negotiations, meetings of our representatives, and the content of the documents. This includes defense packages for Ukraine, new security agreements, and the Peace Summit. In fact, every day we are adding participants to the Summit and countering Russian attempts to disrupt or weaken the Summit. Now every representative of Ukraine has a clear task – to make the next month more productive for Ukraine. And every month, every week, every day should contribute to the strength of our state, our society in the defense, in our defense. It depends on everyone who works for the state and in the state.
And third. Yesterday, in the Kharkiv sector, Iryna Tsybukh, a combat medic of the Hospitallers, was killed in the war. She was one of those who not only defended the state, but also did everything to ensure that others joined, trained and learned to be effective. In matters of both frontline medicine, and respect for Ukrainian warriors – in matters of memorializing the feat of Ukrainians. My condolences to all of Iryna’s brothers-in-arms and friends, all of her loved ones, everyone who knew her, and everyone she inspired to fight for Ukraine and achieve results for Ukraine. It is very important that her work and the efforts of all our fallen heroes continue.
May the memory of all those who gave their lives for the sake of Ukraine be eternal and blessed! I thank everyone in the world who cares and does everything possible to ensure that Russian evil leaves Ukrainian land as soon as possible.
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost:
Video via bandura_krut
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 30, 2024
During a rotation on the frontline, a combat medic, Iryna ‘Cheka’ Tsybukh was killed in Kharkiv region. She would have turned 26 on June 1st.
Her brother, Yuriy Tsybukh, shared a posthumous letter that Cheka’ wrote in case she would get killed—translation in the thread below. pic.twitter.com/9YhtEz4wuC
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) May 30, 2024
Here’s the text of the letter via the Thread Reader App:
“Hi, accept my condolences. I don’t like seeing you sad, but over time, this despair will fade, and life will go on. So don’t waste time on suffering, move forward.
It’s now 7:19 PM, Saturday, April 8, 2023. My team and I are working on reconnaissance for the 80th brigade. ‘Dream On’ by Aerosmith is playing in the background. There have been so many close calls this past year, I figured I should write a posthumous letter just in case.”
It’s sad to me how we lead our frail lives, relying on societal approval so much, that we only find true freedom in death alone. The only problem is life ends, and that freedom bears no meaning.
From today on, I don’t care what people will say about me, about you, about this text, about anything. Whether these words get likes or not, finally no one’s opinion matters to me anymore because I’m dead.
Freedom is the highest value. Almost 26 years passed by, often bogged down by fears and insecurities. But these distractions had no place in my pursuit of freedom.
I’m grateful to myself, my parents, my brother, my family, and my friends for allowing me to be free and live the life I wanted.
In order to be free, you have to attain new kinds of values. You have to understand yourself well, know who you are, know what happiness means to you, and how to achieve it. Once you have these answers, the most important thing is to keep moving forward.Here in Donetsk, I’m on my path, being myself and doing what I want. Nothing else matters really, which is writing this letter comes so easily – because right this moment, same as the moment when my time comes, I have no regrets in the face of death because I’m finally living the life that I wanted.
I won’t lie, to feel this true freedom, I’ll need more rounds of therapy, face more fears, and shed more tears.
Today, everything is behind me; my life is over, and it was important for me to live with dignity: to be honest, kind, and loving. Today, we are working for the heroes, and it’s a great way to reaffirm my values – to be that person truly.
Thank you to everyone who loved and supported me. Don’t mourn me; life is so short. If it continues after death, we’ll meet again.
My brother, don’t worry about me. I stopped worrying about you when you turned 17. Today, you had your first tour of princely Lviv, and I’m so proud of you.
Whoever you choose to be, trust yourself, listen to yourself, love yourself, and live a happy life. If I can, I’ll support you from heaven. But what really matters is that while I was alive, we loved each other and were wonderful siblings. Those were good times.
Let these memories warm you and motivate you, but don’t let them upset you.
To have the strength to be a free person, you must be brave.
Only the brave find happiness, and it is better to die running than to live rotting.
Be worthy of the feats of our heroes, don’t despair, and be brave!”
Kisses, your Cheka
08.04.23 Donetsk regionEternal memory 🕯️
спи спокійно, друже
памʼятаю, як ми з тобою сміялися з того, що місцевий паблік написав про твою загибель декілька місяців тому. казали, що це хороша прикмета — будеш довго жити
набрехали
Єнот, честь. pic.twitter.com/hY49f23LWL
— пані тиха (@nbspeka) May 30, 2024
банка для допомоги рідним Єнота. https://t.co/nApiZDjWyA
— пані тиха (@nbspeka) May 30, 2024
Here’s the machine translation of all three tweets:
sleep well my friend
I remember how you and I laughed at what the local public wrote about your death a few months ago. they said that this is a good sign – you will live a long time
lied
Raccoon, honor.we laughed at this mushroom
these photos were not supposed to become posthumous
what a bitchbank to help relatives of Raccoon.
The problem:
See these short arrows from Belgorod to Kharkiv? That’s 8 S-300 missiles Russia launched overnight. The red ones are from planes. This is why Ukraine needs the right to hit launch sites in Russia and more air defenses. pic.twitter.com/EN1mCbat40
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 30, 2024
Washington DC and Kyiv:
NEW: US is close to signing new security pact with Ukraine in signal of support to assuage Kyiv after “tense” relations that some officials say have hit their lowest ebb since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Story w/ @JamesPoliti @HenryJFoy. More in 🧵below.https://t.co/Qm1QHJGuME
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 30, 2024
Here are the details from the Internet Archive as the original is paywalled. (emphasis mine)
The US is close to signing a new bilateral security pact with Ukraine in a signal of support aiming to assuage Kyiv after “tense” relations that some Ukrainian officials say have hit their lowest ebb since Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The agreement would be the most significant in a series of deals Ukraine has struck with Nato countries that lays out commitments on long-term support, including military training, intelligence sharing and economic assistance.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s frustration with Joe Biden was laid bare this week, when the Ukrainian president rebuked his US counterpart in unusually blunt terms, saying Biden’s plan to attend a Democratic fundraiser rather than Ukraine’s peace summit on June 15-16 was “not a strong decision”.
One Zelenskyy-appointed senior government official who spoke to the Financial Times about the US-Ukraine relationship said: “We are farther apart than ever since the war started. It is very, very tense.”
However days before the peace summit, Zelenskyy and Biden are expected to sign a bilateral security agreement on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Italy next month, US officials told the FT.
The pact has been negotiated during weeks of increasingly strained relations between Kyiv and Washington. Zelenskyy’s office this week issued a memo to officials and MPs, seen by the FT, that instructs them to criticise both Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping for not attending the summit. “If they don’t [attend], then what is their real interest?” the memo wrote.
Several Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv’s bitterness over lack of top-level US support for its peace summit initiative was just one of many points of friction with Washington and other western partners that have erupted at a particularly difficult time for Ukraine’s leadership.
More than a dozen current and former Ukrainian officials and G7 country diplomats in Kyiv who spoke to the FT point to a clutch of contentious issues. These include Congress’s six-month delay in approving US military assistance; the expected lack of substantive progress towards Nato membership for Ukraine at the alliance’s Washington summit in July; the Biden administration’s prohibition on Kyiv’s use of American-supplied weapons inside Russia; and Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.
Ukrainian attacks on two radar systems that form part of Moscow’s nuclear warning system over the past week have been a particular point of conflict with Washington, which is worried that it may provoke Moscow and further escalate the war.
Other points of concern relate to diverging strategies on how Ukraine can achieve victory and what that victory might look like, as well as Zelenskyy’s little explained removal of top government and military officials the US had worked closely with.
Several Ukrainian government officials and diplomats from G7 nations cited the firing of commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny in February and infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov this month. Both men were well respected and enjoyed close working relationships with US and EU officials. The officials told the FT that G7 ambassadors have warned Zelenskyy’s government about what they see as disruptive and inexplicable moves.
The fraying relations and discord come as Ukrainian forces struggle to hold their defensive lines against a bigger and better-armed Russian army in the east, and while Zelenskyy is under huge pressure to mobilise more men and take other unpopular decisions to bolster the war effort.
Zelenskyy’s press secretary did not immediately respond to questions about relations with Biden’s White House.
The Biden administration has been among Ukraine’s most steadfast supporters, committing more than $175bn in emergency assistance to the country since the start of Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022. Biden has repeatedly stated that the US would stick by Ukraine’s side for “as long as it takes”.
A US official said while there were points of disagreement in any bilateral relationship, there had been positive developments that had cheered officials in Kyiv. These include the US approval for Kyiv’s use of long-range 300km Atacms missiles and Congress passing $60bn of aid last month.
The US official also said Ukraine’s request to use US weapons to strike inside Russia was relatively recent, coming three weeks ago when Russian forces opened a new front in the north-eastern Kharkiv region. The official said the request is being evaluated by the Biden administration, suggesting a shift was possible soon.
But a second senior Ukrainian official said Zelenskyy has grown more “emotional and nervous” over the situation on the battlefield and what they say the president sees as Washington’s eagerness to start negotiations with Russia, despite the White House stating in public that it is entirely a decision for Kyiv to initiate such talks.
Zelenskyy “thinks they want the war to go away before the [US] election”, the official said. He added that the Ukrainian president was also unhappy with the Biden administration’s insistence that Kyiv not hit Russian oil infrastructure over fears of raising global gas prices in an election year.
A third senior Ukrainian official used the word “paranoia” to describe the feeling inside the presidential office in recent months, as Zelenskyy and his team have worked to prepare for next month’s peace summit. “Zelenskyy has deep anxiety about the military situation but especially about the peace summit in June,” the official said.
The Ukrainian president has tried to attract leaders from as many countries as possible to his summit in Switzerland, with the aim of uniting the global community against Vladimir Putin’s aggression. The Russian president has not been invited.
Representatives from more than 80 countries have confirmed their attendance, according to the memo and Zelenskyy. Meanwhile, Russia has been working to convince developing countries to sit it out.
Zelenskyy’s office wrote a memo on May 26 that outlines talking points for officials and MPs to use when speaking with western partners and media about the summit, and specifically instructs Ukrainian officials and lawmakers to pile public pressure on Biden and Xi.
“It is unlikely that the world will understand President Biden and President Xi if they do not join in the realisation of such undeniably just goals and bringing peace closer.”
Zelenskyy himself criticised the lack of response from the Biden administration during a visit to Brussels on Tuesday. “I am aware that America supports this summit, but we not aware on which level,” Zelenskyy said.
“I believe that the peace summit needs President Biden,” Zelenskyy continued. “His absence will only be a personal, standing applause to Putin.”
US officials say that Ukraine scheduled the summit in Switzerland for June 15 and 16 despite being told that Biden would probably be unable to attend. A senior official will represent the US at the meeting.
“The US and President Biden has been there for President Zelenskyy and for the people of Ukraine, and that will continue regardless of who sits in what chair at the peace summit,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Wednesday.
Several members of Zelenskyy’s own government said they are beginning to worry about the methods employed by their president to communicate with the US. One said that Zelenskyy was “very irritated” with Biden, adding they were concerned about “openly provoking” the White House.
“What do you say in America?” a fourth Ukrainian government official asked the FT. “Do not bite the hand that feeds you.”
Seems to work for Bibi and the Israelis!
More seriously, I’m sure this is part of the frustration. Zelenskyy and his team have largely done what the Biden administration wants them to do while Bibi and his coalition are out of control and Bibi is actively working to cost Biden reelection and they get whatever they want.
This is the dynamic that Zelenskyy is observing:
There is no doubt in my mind that Biden loves Israel more than Netanyahu does. As I saw an Israeli post recently, Biden has risked his political future for Israel. Netanyahu has risked Israel for his political future.
— Schoggigipfel (@schoggigipfel) May 29, 2024
Blinken on whether U.S. will allow Ukraine to strike in Russia: “We’ve adapted & adjusted as necessary…We’re always listening, we’re always learning & we’re always making determinations about what’s necessary to make sure that Ukraine can effectively continue to defend itself.”
— Olivia Gazis (@Olivia_Gazis) May 29, 2024
Antony Blinken said that the U.S. could “adapt and adjust” its position on Western weapons strikes against targets on Russian territory.
“Another hallmark of our support for Ukraine over these now more than two years has been to adapt. As the conditions have changed, as the… pic.twitter.com/PmpZbZPMit
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 30, 2024
Antony Blinken said that the U.S. could “adapt and adjust” its position on Western weapons strikes against targets on Russian territory.
“Another hallmark of our support for Ukraine over these now more than two years has been to adapt. As the conditions have changed, as the battlefield has changed, as what Russia does has changed in terms of how it’s pursuing its aggression, escalation, we’ve adapted and adjusted too. And I’m confident we’ll continue to do that,” @SecBlinken said at a joint press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu.
When asked by a reporter whether Blinken’s words meant that America could support Ukraine’s attacks inside Russia, he replied, “adapt and adjust means just that.”
From Zelenskyy’s point of view, Ukrainians are dying every day, Ukrainians are being terrorized, Ukrainians are being occupied all to defend NATO’s eastern flank. And the response from the US has been slow, begrudged, conditional, and patronizing. Ukraine is not allowed to use US weapons systems, weaponry, or munitions/ammo to thwart Russian attacks that are being staged just across the border, but when Israel uses a pair of US GBUs to take out a pair of high value Hamas targets adjacent to where Israeli told displaced Gazan Palestinians to flee to and shelter and a gas line, it doesn’t cross Biden’s red line.
For those who are going to say that the US has eased the restriction for Russian attacks on Kharkiv, only sort of. It’s for counterbattery only.
From Politico: (emphasis mine)
The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, three U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.
“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” one of the U.S. officials said, adding that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.”
Ukraine asked the U.S. to make this policy change only after Russia’s offensive on Kharkiv began this month, the official added. All the people were granted anonymity to discuss internal decisions that haven’t been announced.
In the last few days, the U.S. made the decision to allow Ukraine “flexibility” to defend itself from attacks on the border near Kharkiv, the second U.S. official said.
In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.
If this is true, then the Biden administration has done what it should have done two and a quarter years ago. It allowed something that initially should not have even been prohibited. Full of fear and lack of leadership – main features describing the current presidential… https://t.co/domq7GRg8f pic.twitter.com/cbXr3U0iRr
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 30, 2024
If this is true, then the Biden administration has done what it should have done two and a quarter years ago. It allowed something that initially should not have even been prohibited. Full of fear and lack of leadership – main features describing the current presidential administration.
Every decision this administration was forced to make was the result of hundreds of lives lost and rivers of blood spilled.
Only after Russian troops practically wiped out Vovchansk from the face of the earth, after hundreds of people died from Russian shelling and airstrikes in the border regions, did the current US presidential administration reluctantly, allowed the use of its weapons on some parts of the Russian territory. In addition to being one of the very last countries to do so.
Behind every ban that is imposed on Ukraine’s right to defend itself there is fear. Fear of Russia among people who often live on the opposite side of the globe from the Kremlin.
And the time it takes these people to overcome their personal unjustified fears of Russia and Putin is one of the main reasons for the death of many thousands of Ukrainians.
No one can turn back the flow of time to do things differently. The dead cannot be brought back, but you can do everything possible so that from this moment on, as few as possible will die from Russian aggression.
But everything inside me screams that this won’t happen. The current unjustified fear of many Western governments of Putin and Russia is disproportionately stronger than their commitment to democratic and Western values.
❤️Thanks to all those who help Ukraine, to those who make every effort to permanently remove all imposed bans on the right of Ukrainians to self-defense.
🩸For everyone else, I hope you will need as little time as possible to overcome your personal fears of Putin, since in Ukraine people pay in blood for time.
They did the absolute minimum thing they had to do to get people off their backs for a while. This may very well prolong the decision process to allow Ukraine to hit the targets they really need.
— Def Mon (@DefMon3) May 30, 2024
Russia gets to strike anywhere it wants in Ukraine any time it wants with Russian, Iranian, and North Korean weapons and munitions. Ukraine, however, is severely restricted by the Biden administration in how it can fight an existential defense against a genocidal re-invasion.
Denmark:
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen has stated that Ukraine will be able to use Danish F-16 fighters to strike military targets on Russian territory.
“Part of the border is actually the front line. Therefore, it will be very difficult for the Ukrainians to defend… pic.twitter.com/BnlzVcpJWT
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 30, 2024
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen has stated that Ukraine will be able to use Danish F-16 fighters to strike military targets on Russian territory.
“Part of the border is actually the front line. Therefore, it will be very difficult for the Ukrainians to defend themselves if they are not allowed to hit military targets on the other side of the border,” @larsloekke told reporters on May 30 at a doorstep of the EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) in Brussels, pointing out that this position is not new and is part of a transfer.
But he stressed that this is “not a carte blanche for Ukraine to use F16s to launch arbitrary attacks on Russia.”
According to him, Russia’s military installations, like weapons depots, are “legitimate military targets” since Russia attacked Ukraine.
“It is completely within the rules of war that a country that is attacked must be able to respond. This also includes the right to target installations on the attacking party’s own territory,” the Danish minister of foreign affairs said.
Kharkiv:
Whenever there’s a russian missile or bomb attack on Kharkiv, I text my mom to make sure she and my dad are safe. Tonight, she took longer than usual to reply, which terrified me, so I called her. Once I knew they were alright, I hung up the phone and burst into tears. The fear…
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 30, 2024
Whenever there’s a russian missile or bomb attack on Kharkiv, I text my mom to make sure she and my dad are safe. Tonight, she took longer than usual to reply, which terrified me, so I called her. Once I knew they were alright, I hung up the phone and burst into tears. The fear that one of these attacks could kill my parents haunts me, making me live from one call to another in constant worry.
Kharkiv Oblast, a Ukrainian FPV munition flies into a fully loaded Russian BM-21 grad, causing a catastrophic ammunition detonation, vaporizing the Russian MLRS. pic.twitter.com/QzPA11w2D2
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 30, 2024
Russian occupied Crimea:
Update from @DI_Ukraine: As a result of the overnight attack, 4 speedboats, KS-701 Tunets (Tuna) type, were hit, and 2 of them were destroyed. https://t.co/f1Qroo146S
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 30, 2024
Last night, the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck the Kerch ferry crossing with ATACMS missiles — General Staff of the Armed Forces.
2 ferries, which carried out rail and road transportation, suffered significant damage. One of them ran aground, blocking the operation of the… https://t.co/vdItT14v7k pic.twitter.com/g5kOFMrkq5
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 30, 2024
Last night, the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck the Kerch ferry crossing with ATACMS missiles — General Staff of the Armed Forces.
2 ferries, which carried out rail and road transportation, suffered significant damage. One of them ran aground, blocking the operation of the entire Kerch crossing.
The crossing was actively used to secure grouping of Russian troops in occupied Crimea.
/2. Avangard: Year 2009; Length 133,7m; Can carry 45 railway cars.
Conro Trader: Year 1978; Length 109m; Can carry 35 railway cars.Intormation about Conro Trader – https://t.co/PWxc2mhUXt
Intormation about Avangard – https://t.co/x1YqnslCRY pic.twitter.com/GLJFwlrNnV— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 30, 2024
The Serbyansk Forest, Kreminna:
Епізоди боїв у Серебрянському лісі (Луганщина) на напрямку Кремінної,очима іноземних добровольців у складі Інтернаціонального Легіону pic.twitter.com/kPM6wysGBO
— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) May 30, 2024
Here’s the machine translation of the tweet:
Episodes of battles in Serebryansk forest (Luhansk region) in the direction of Kreminnaya, through the eyes of foreign volunteers as part of the International Legion
/2. Serebryanskyy forest, Kreminna front https://t.co/I7rQRffapT
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 30, 2024
[2/2]
Visible light. pic.twitter.com/IPVhy28nTX
— kosmi 🛰️🌍 (@kosmi64833127) April 19, 2024
Chasiv Yar:
Russians intensified assault on Chasiv Yar, — press officer of the 26th Artillery Brigade Oleh Kalashnikov.
Russian tactics have also changed. Instead of using small infantry groups, they relied on mechanized attacks.
“Indeed, there are more and more cases of mechanized… pic.twitter.com/bRDdhwTAfC
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 30, 2024
Russians intensified assault on Chasiv Yar, — press officer of the 26th Artillery Brigade Oleh Kalashnikov.
Russian tactics have also changed. Instead of using small infantry groups, they relied on mechanized attacks.
“Indeed, there are more and more cases of mechanized attacks, they involve both tanks and armored personnel carriers. This is due to the fact that infantry groups cannot break the defense. That is why they use the mechanized component, because they are trying not only to find a weak point, but also to push us through and advance,” Kalashnikov said.
📹: what Russia does to Chasiv Yar/Black Swan Squad
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets today. Here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Mission: melt hearts
📷: Lyut (Fury) Brigade pic.twitter.com/zpLmU0LOyj
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 30, 2024
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to go work out. I know it’s been a slow news day, so you all try not to get too exuberant.
PaulB
Thanks, Adam. I suspect that most people are on the previous two threads, as well as indulging in their own personal celebrations. I just wanted to say thank you for all of the information you’ve shared and the hard work you do on a daily basis, day in and day out. I don’t post much at all, but I read every one of these threads, and I’m grateful that you share your expertise with us.
Bill Arnold
Seriously, the conviction of DJT on 34 felony counts improves prospects for Ukraine. It will damage convicted felon Donald J. Trump’s electoral prospects, IMO.
YY_Sima Qian
The slight easing of restrictions on Ukrainians firing into Russia w/ US supplied weapons is certainly welcome, but this comes after months of delay that had given the initiative to Russia in the Kharkiv & Sumy sectors, putting Ukraine on the back foot that will be difficult & surely costly to recover from.
I know these words (& much of what Adam & several other posters have consistently written) are irritating to others here, who understandably would prefer to circle the wagons for the coming election. However, these are the real world consequences of the choices that the Biden Administration has made, & all of us should squarely confront the these consequences, & the costs of the Administration’s policy trade offs. We can’t take a vacation from reality even if it is election season. It’s election season half the time in the U.S.
To me, the election in Nov. is a rear guard action, one that has to be fought & won or the U.S. will head to a much darker place for quite a while. However, winning that rear guard action does not mean winning the game, it is a necessary but far from sufficient condition. The reason I say that is because Biden & the Dems have done little to ameliorate, & often have exacerbated, the underlying forces driving collapse of any semblance of international order, & the rise of reactionary liberalism/authoritarianism everywhere. Yes, plenty of others contributing all around the world, to one extent or another, be they Putin/KJU/Khamenei/Bibi/Sinwar, or Xi/Modi, or Scholz/Macron/VDL/Sunak, or Kishida/Yoon/Albanese, or Lula/Ramaphosa.
japa21
@YY_Sima Qian: Well stated. In so many ways, the Biden administration has done wonders. Even in regard to Ukraine, at least in building support from a lot of countries. At the same time, it has frequently done the very minimum which, at best, keeps the darkness away, but doesn’t increase the light. Much of what they have done right has been minimized by the Israel/Gaza fiasco.
Yes, it is essential that Biden win reelection. Yes, it is also essential that a second Biden administration be more aggressive in the international arena.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1796174344361488856#m
Genocide, ecocide, culturecide,……..
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1796094369881084230#m
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Osinttechnical/status/1796220432435020288#m
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: I’ve read it every word and every word it says is death.
There will be targeted killings as a result of today’s verdict.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: The only good news, is that the only foreign policy issue likely to have any effect might be Gaza. And I’m not even sure how large an effect that will have. So the circling the wagons crowd can unclench.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Dugin’s not that influential. Except, maybe, in the US. Which is why I didn’t include that.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah, its true elections are dominated by domestic issues, fortunately (since it may not hurt Biden’s chances that much) & unfortunately (since people around the world still have to live w/ the consequences of the choices made by the Biden Administration, Congress, & American voters).
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman:
Can you elaborate a bit, perhaps in tomorrow’s post.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/07/dont-take-putins-brain-dugin-at-face-value-a82989
Putin’s “interview” with Nepo Frozen Fishsticks Baby was all Dugin’s mythology.
Yes, he has little direct influence on Putin and his fellow travellers, other than what Dugin promotes now, becomes mainlined and normalized in ruZZian society a decade later.
Saying Dugin has no influence is like saying Rush, Fishsticks, Briebart, et al have had no influence on TCCFG’s world view.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: I expect Trump supporters to at least try to kill the jurors, the prosecutors, the judge, and the judges daughter. I expect at least one will succeed in killing someone from each of those groups.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: I’m aware of what his influence was and who it was on. Now, as a practical matter, he has little direct influence on policy. His damage is done.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Hopefully you will be proven wrong, because otherwise we are definitely heading toward a hot Civil War
I guess I should have saved this thread for later in the morning, celebrate the conviction for a bit longer.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: We are already in a hot rebellion/revolt containing a civil war because Trump and his supporters refuse to accept the legitimacy of the last election and thereby the current administration and US government.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I’d say it’s still a “cold” one, since it is still mostly lawfare & greyzone tactics.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: No, no it is not mostly lawfare and greyzone tactics.
dimmsdale
@Adam L Silverman: I wrote on another blog that the courage of the Trump jury would have to hold them past the verdict being rendered; I would hope they’re under protection at least for the immediate future. I’m sure they’ve known all along what the stakes have been, and will continue to be, for them personally. Hoping you’re wrong in your prediction, and suspecting that if lethal attempts are made, and subsequently foiled, we’ll probably never hear about it. Thanks again for all you do, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@dimmsdale: They are not protected. NY City is under the control – as in they control the mayor – of the NYPD. And the NYPD supports Trump.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: If all you see as a result of today’s conviction is “death”, then I sincerely suggest you take a few days off and recharge.
Today was a historic day for the rule of law. It was a very, very good day.
Take care.
Cheers,
Scott.
dimmsdale
@Adam L Silverman: Well, that’s sobering. I was just a prospective juror on a federal case, downtown, and the Court building was crawling with US Marshals, but of course that’s SDNY. No federal protection for the Trump jury, then; which makes their courage all the more inspiring. If any of Trump’s threats should come to pass against them, … well, I don’t think I’ll finish that sentence.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: MacAulliffe is still going to beat Governor Sweater vest and the Democrats are still going to hold the House of Representatives, just like you predicted in October 2022, right?
Reality is not pleasant. It is not nice and neat. The arc of history does not and has never bent towards justice. And every attempt to bend it towards justice has been met with a violent, overwhelming reversal. We are living through one of those reversals. It will soon be complete. And when it is finished, what is left will be no place for nice people like you because there will be no place in that world for nice people like you.
John Revolta
@Adam L Silverman: pour encourager les autres
Adam L Silverman
@dimmsdale: It won’t be a threat from Trump or one that he makes. He doesn’t have to make threats, he has established a competitive system of control with his followers. Those that would take action already know what they must do. The only remaining question is if one or more of them tries to do it. I expect someone will.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: It’s a good thing that none of us are very good at predicting the future then, isn’t it?
Maybe we should talk about the present more.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
Very good interview w/ Dara Massicot by Isaac Chotiner at the New Yorker, some nuggets I was not aware of or didn’t fully appreciate before:
YY_Sima Qian
From Al Jazeera:
Clearly, Israel is no longer a liberal democracy even internally, & hasn’t been for a few years. Perhaps ideologically simpatico w/ the Gulf States, after all.
Carlo Graziani
Even more seriously: give me a break. The comparison between Gaza and Ukraine is facile to the point of fatuity. It is only clarifying to those who think that the history of US foreign policy began in 2022, or at best in 2014.
US foreign and domestic policy has been entangled with Israel— damagingly to US interests, in my view, but nonetheless inescapably—since 1948. The relationship has broadened, deepened, and complexified through major wars in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and 1982, all the while with the political intertwining of two national polities, the creation of an incredibly resilient ideological affinity between powerful and non-ignorable political iinterests in the US and the idea of Israel as an essential Mideast ally whose importance transcends that of the UK and the much-vaunted “special relationship,” in parallel with intermittent efforts to bring the Israelis to account in the Bush I and Clinton administrations, terminated by the accession of Likud to the role of foreign-policy arm of the Republican Party, and, not coincidentally, by the Palestinians’ own cowardly refusal to ratify the best possible real effort to give them some kind of state in 2000.
Meanwhile, compared to this thick history, we have passive US engagement with Ukraine as part of CIS following the USSR’s collapse, some notice that not all is going to plan after 2014, and a full-blown European military crisis in 2022.
Sorry, this comparison is historically illiterate. The US foreign and military policy establishment and US domestic politics has deep investments in the Israel-Arab conflict, and shallow ones (in historical comparative terms) in Ukraine’s struggle for independence. Assimilating the two situations in an indictment of US policy is like comparing an oak tree to a potted plant. It yields a moral argument of some sort, but it certainly does not constitute valid political science or historical reasoning.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: It does make a mockery of everything the Biden Administration has been saying domestically & internationally about “liberal international order”, “rules based international order”, “US led international order”, “democracy vs. autocracy”, “American moral leadership”, “defending against foreign interference in US politics”, etc. etc.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
In two years of HIMARS being in Ukraine, ruZZia has destroyed exactly one confirmed HIMARS launch vehicle, (May 5, 2024), which was not carrying ATACMS, but instead M30/31 standard block missiles.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: That’s why I was quite surprised to see that comment from Massicot, but he is not known to exaggerate.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Ukraine had 39 HIMARS launchers. 2 have been damaged, (and will be repaired), 1 so far has been destroyed.
ruZZian Z media have so far claimed over 100 HIMARS launchers destroyed.
What ruzzia “claims” is a drone team and Iskandar missile battery, (vondervaffen) took out a HIMARS with ATACMS in a rapid counter battery operation.
If true, it’s a problem showing better coordination and communication amongst ruZZian forces.
What we know.
A HIMARS launcher was destroyed, May 5th, 2024.
It did not have ATACMS.
It was parked in an open field.
We don’t if there was a drone, (no ruZZian drone footage on Telegram).
We don’t know if it was an Iskandar.
We don’t know if any of the crew were killed or injured, (so far, it seems not).
We know the HIMARS was not in launch position.
So, disturbing new ruZZian tactics and efficiency, or a fluke swarmed with propaganda?
There is a whole “industry” where every ruZZian tactical and strategic adaptation, successful or not, mostly not, ( golf carts, dirt bikes, barges, portable jammers, cope cages, turtle tanks, nets, etc) is a “game changer” and Ukraine is doomed.
Playing into this, is the “military conscription/manpower” issue. There are whole articles on how Ukraine is drafting prisoners, (they arn’t). As an ex-felon, depending on your convictions, one can volenteer for service, and get accepted, after vetting.
Ukraine and NATO as it currently stands, can train 38,000 recruits to “Basic”, every 6 months.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam