A couple of quick housekeeping notes. The girls are fine. Rosie starts here second round of chemo tomorrow. Tonight is her last night of her two weeks off for recovery after the first round. She’s currently chilling in the bottom left quarter of the bed.
Like many of you all, I had a long list of things to do this weekend. And while getting some rest was one of them, and I got the rest of the ones requiring exertion done, I’m wiped, so I’m going to keep tonight’s update short.
Right now the only air raid alert that is up, aside from Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea as air raid alerts are always up for those two, is Kharkiv. I’ll keep an eye on the alert map as I do the update.
Watching Russian hysteria over Western weapons hitting targets inside Russia is surprisingly soothing pic.twitter.com/RDejYLQEK5
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 2, 2024
Total disregard for human life and constant terror is what Russia is trying to spread.
Just this week alone, Russian troops have carried out nearly 1,000 strikes using various types of missiles, guided aerial bombs, and combat drones.
Protecting life in Ukraine with a… pic.twitter.com/tTLlG8RWOG
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 2, 2024
Total disregard for human life and constant terror is what Russia is trying to spread.
Just this week alone, Russian troops have carried out nearly 1,000 strikes using various types of missiles, guided aerial bombs, and combat drones.
Protecting life in Ukraine with a sufficient number of air defense systems, providing our soldiers with the necessary weapons of the required range, and exerting pressure on the terrorist state so that Russia does not have time to adapt is the way to bring peace closer.
Russian terror must lose. The world is capable of ensuring this.
President Zelenskyy is still traveling. Today he attended the Shangri-La Dialogue 2024 in Singapore. The video of his address is below, followed by the English transcript after the jump.
Speech by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Plenary Session “Re-Imagining Solutions for Global Peace and Regional Stability” Held in Singapore
2 June 2024 – 10:20
Mr. Giegerich,
Dear Ministers of Defense,
Ladies and gentlemen,
Dear journalists,
I’m pleased to address you here today at IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.
For many years in such Summits, including here, in Singapore, people discussed the importance of diplomacy.
It’s often said that brutal force should not dominate the world. Similarly, attempts by various power centers to impose something on other nations against their will in politics, economy, or security should not dominate either. Diplomacy should be those caring and strong hands that prevent international disputes from turning into fights, restraining the most aggressive parties. This is how diplomacy often worked in the past. But frankly, the last few decades have not been a time for diplomacy. We have all felt this, and each region, sometimes even countries, has its own experience of how diplomacy has degraded leaving only disappointment behind.
In the 1990s, Ukraine suffered one of the greatest deceptions in modern history when the security assurances from nuclear powers – in exchange for the nuclear arsenal located in Ukraine, did not translate into real security. It was exactly 28 years ago these days, when Ukraine handed over its last nuclear warheads to Russia, in line with a multilateral international agreement. And it is Russia that has tried to erase Ukraine from the political map of the world. In the 2000s, Ukraine faced the first obvious violations by Russia on our territory and sovereignty, revealing that there was no element of the world’s security architecture capable of restraining Russia and forcing it to stick to the principles and purposes of the UN Charter. So, Putin believes he is allowed to do anything. By the mid-2010s, Russia brought a war to our land – a war that we in Ukraine never, never, never wanted, did not provoke, and which expanded into the most treacherous invasion Europe has experienced since World War II.
All of this was a series of diplomatic failures and constant attempts to keep the world divided into spheres of influence – which disrupts nations’ lives and corrupts global powers. As a result – war. When unity was needed, the world was divided. When bold decisions were required, many were content with the status quo. And when preventive action was necessary to avoid the worst, the aggressor was somehow given time to prepare – we remember how Moscow tempted the world with the talks, all of which resulted in hollow words or unacceptable ultimatums. Thus, we found ourselves in a war that now affects everyone in the world and spreads a globally dangerous cult of violence instead of trust in international law, trust that diplomacy should strengthen.
But Ukraine will not complain. I am here to state: we have found a way to restore diplomacy. This is the goal I spoke about at the Shangri-La Dialogue, now we can make it real.
Dear friends!
Not so long ago it seemed that the world would always be fragmented. But we saw that most nations truly desire and are capable of cooperation, at least as far as collective security is concerned. A clear example are the coalitions from military to humanitarian, formal and informal, which help us withstand the war and prevent Russia from expanding it. These coalitions, supporting Ukraine, unite countries from all continents – with different characters and worldviews. What brought them together? Naturally, diplomacy. Diplomacy does work – when it truly aims to protect life.
Together with partners, we are defending life and rules-based world order. We are working to obtain air defense systems, and co-produce weaponry and drones. We train our soldiers together. We counter cyber threats together. We restore energy infrastructure damaged by Russian terror together. Just now, on Sunday night, Ukraine faced another round of Russian strikes – during one day, imagine, nearly a hundred missiles and drones. This has happened hundreds of times throughout the war, and no country could handle this alone, and I thank everyone in the world who helps us with air defense systems, saving the lives of our people, and the best Patriot systems. The United States, Germany, the Netherlands, and other partners who help us, thank you so much. Together we are also bringing back Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia from the occupied territories of our country. We know for sure about 20,000 Ukrainian children who were kidnapped and taken to Russia – we know their names. And Russia itself claimed that it took several hundred thousand of our children from the occupied territory of Ukraine – only the worst criminals do such things. We must bring all of our children back to Ukraine, to relatives, to parents. I thank Qatar for the help and other partner countries. Also, together with our partners, we are bringing back our captured soldiers.
There are already dozens such joint initiatives, and they work not only for Ukraine. Countries from Libya and Sudan to Bangladesh, consume food produced in Ukraine. All of them benefited directly when we lifted the Russian blockade of our ports and resumed our food exports. Initially, this was achieved through international mediation – together with Türkiye and the UN. Later, when Russia left the Grain Initiative, we resumed our contribution to global food security thanks to our soldiers who defeated Russia at sea. Already, 50 million tons of cargo have been exported through our new maritime corridor. But this was also made possible by diplomacy that supports Ukraine’s resilience in battles. Once again, diplomacy does work.
Now, we are creating a new security architecture for Ukraine based on bilateral security agreements with our partners. There are already 15 such agreements, and more will come. These agreements are comprehensive, covering everything from defense cooperation to political and economic interaction. Diplomacy restores the world’s habit of keeping with the terms of agreements in real life.
Besides, we’ve proven that now diplomacy resolves issues that Europe has been unable to solve for decades. Specifically, we have secured real steps towards Ukraine’s integration with the EU – and Ukraine will definitely become an EU member, a part of one of the biggest global markets and security space.
And the key point – peace.
Our experience of restoring effective diplomacy has led us to the format of the Global Peace Summit. We are convinced that our world wants to be united and be capable of acting in complete harmony. We’ve realized that nations equally reject the idea of someone secretly making decisions and imposing them – what is needed is open and inclusive dialogue. We have confirmed that the principles and purposes of the UN Charter and international conventions are entirely relevant. All this has become the basis of our Peace Formula and has grown into the Global Peace Summit – so every leader and country can show their commitment to peace. The global majority can ensure with their involvement – that what is agreed upon, is truly implemented, and so that Russia, who started this cruel war, cannot push us off the path to ending the war.
More than one hundred countries and international organizations have confirmed their participation in the Summit. For today. At the first Summit, we will address three points of the Peace Formula – nuclear security, food security, and the release of prisoners of war and, of course, the Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. Time is running out, and the children are growing up in a Putinland where they are taught to hate their homeland and are lied to, being told they have no families – while their loved ones wait for them at home in Ukraine. After the Peace Summit, when the global majority agrees on the common understandings and steps, the relevant parties will pass this to Russia, aiming for an outcome similar to The Grain Initiative. If these basic things are implemented, other points of the Peace Formula will work as well.
Yes, we are disappointed that some world leaders have not yet confirmed their participation in the Peace Summit. Unfortunately, there are also attempts to disrupt the Summit. We do not want to believe that this is a desire for monopolistic power in the world – to deny the global community the opportunity to decide on war and peace and to leave this power in the hands of one or two. We respect the UN Charter, respect every nation, and treat everyone equally – only on this principle can the world be safeguarded from war.
Ukraine proposes peace through diplomacy – an inclusive and fair format, Global Peace Summit. And I invite your region, your leaders, and countries to join. So that your peoples are involved in these global affairs and, by uniting against one war, we create for the world a real experience – the experience of overcoming any war, and of diplomacy that does work.
Thank you for the invitation! Thank you for your attention!
Слава Україні!
The cost:
Today Kyiv honors the memory of Iryna Tsybukh, a Ukrainian paramedic killed by Russian forces on May 29th.
“Freedom is the highest value,” Iryna wrote in her posthumous letter. “To have the strength to be a free person, you must be brave.” pic.twitter.com/pceDcflcWk
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) June 2, 2024
Ніколи не думала, що весь майдан її буде співати
Ще й на похороні@cheka_tsybukh це для тебе pic.twitter.com/HW9h9tt1vI— Пані Жесть (@Karinchikk) June 2, 2024
I never thought that the whole Maidan would sing it
Also at the funeral
@cheka_tsybukh this is for you
Kyiv:
At the biggest annual Kyiv Book Fair – exhibit of books burnt by RU attack on Kharkiv-based publishing house… One of the titles: “To fight. Not possible to retreat” – symbolic, painful & clear. No chance of our survival, if RU won’t be defeated. pic.twitter.com/SE1468ZkCU
— Ivanna Klympush (@IKlympush) June 2, 2024
Left Bank of the Dnipro, Kherson Oblast:
🇫🇷 AMX-10RC in service with the 37th Marine Brigade is firing on enemy positions on the left bank of the Kherson region. pic.twitter.com/KisEdw7HM8
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 2, 2024
Starytsya, Kharkiv Oblast:
/2. Same Russian attack near Starytsya, finishing off one of the Russian T-62s https://t.co/nYuiUtPcJ4
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 2, 2024
Here’s the full text of the first tweet:
Today Russians began a new attack on a Kharkiv front, in the direction of Starytsya, west from Vovchansk.
According to reports, the attack involved mainly infantry and old tanks like T-62’s. 42nd Brigade of Ukraine took part in the repelling of the attack:
«This morning, Russians launched a massive assault on our positions in the area of the village of Starytsya. Hundreds of tons of equipment and a large number of personnel were destroyed by the coordinated actions of all units of the 42nd Brigade. The battle is still ongoing. At the moment we have confirmation:
💥Infantry: 20-200, 21-300
💥 T-62 – 3 destroyed
💥 T-62 – 1 damaged
💥BMP – 1 destroyed
💥 2S1 Gvozdika – 1 destroyed
💥Car transport – 2 destroyedWe continue our work!»
And a machine translation of Sternenko’s quoted tweet:
Tankocide continues!
Soldiers of the Perun 42 OMBr unit burned another Russian tank with your drones 💥
Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
Vovchansk now.
The so-called “Russian world” has returned. pic.twitter.com/HeDjRjWWiF
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 2, 2024
Kriegforscher, the Ukrainian Marine, has posted a new assessment about what is going on in Vovchansk. Via the Thread Reader App:
The battle for Vovchansk continues. And it feels like that this is only the beginning.
It’s totally clear that RUAF will use at this direction more reserves and will try to do that have been written here a couple of weeks ago — they will try to cut the logistics near Kypansk🧵
They have started that advance at this direction mainly with 138 brigade and some assault companies from different regiment.
Right now they deployed at least one battalion of 25 mechanised brigade and one air assault battalion (also recon company, snipers company) of 83 VDV unit
From day to day the launch a different amount of guided bombs. The last time I had a task they used 17 guided bombs.
I don’t whether it’s a lot of not.
But we continue digging.
But, in general, they are constantly firing at our positions.
I just wait when they finally will use other regimens of the 44 AC and 72 division.
Right now in the city they use only infantry. And evacuation is on foot.
When they use some small cars — they burn.
So they need to walk a lot.
From our side I see more (a little bit) artillery and aviation. But the point is to strike deep into Russia.
I hope it will happen now.
Some period of time ago in some unknown place I have met a tank platoon.
Just look at this beauties 🔥
Unfortunately, during a counterattack on May we have lost (burned) one Styker. Another one was abandoned (and lately recovered as far as I am concerned).
And another thing is happening that was told by me: they try to dig at newly occupied territory so it will be hard to make them retreat after that.
Right now they don’t reach a success doing this.
Destroyed Russian trucks 👇
Filmed by our long range UAV platoon destroyed Russian tank, BMP-1 and IMR-2(?).
Our long range UAV is constantly looking for Russian artillery in Belford oblast. For example, 2S43 «Malva» from the 9th artillery brigade.
To be more effective in destroying them they need your support.
Tablets, tools, GPS tracker.
Price is 1K$
PP is: [email protected]
The Avdiivka front:
🔥Bradley IFV of the 47th Brigade of Ukraine destroys two Russian BTR-82 which were attacking Ukrainian positions on the Avdiivka front.https://t.co/mZARplZw9t pic.twitter.com/qTW3Gx74Lm
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 2, 2024
Reuters published a deep dive, long form report on Ukrainian Soldiers on the front lines. Here are some excerpts:
The artillery fire begins just before dawn. A soldier steps into a darkened trench and lights a cigarette, carefully cupping the flame with his free hand. A boom and crackle of outgoing fire sound in the distance.
Viktor, the infantryman, ducks his head under a canopy of camouflage netting and looks up at the brightening sky. The incessant buzz of a drone sounds overhead, moving a dozen meters from one end of the trench to linger just above him.
Viktor swallows. A moment later, the buzzing sound moves on.
“One of ours,” the 37-year-old soldier says, bringing the cigarette back up to his lips.
The sun finally rises and the noise of war picks up. For weeks, Viktor has barely slept as Russian drones and artillery continually target his position. During the day, he watches for any attempts by Russian troops to cross a minefield that separates the two sides. At night, he picks up a shovel to dig and fortify his trench.
“They’re constantly firing, constantly probing,” he says. “We have to survive somehow and we have to hold the line.”
It is the start of another draining day on Ukraine’s eastern front line. Monitoring his scratchy radio, Viktor will try to move as little as possible in a trench less than 800 meters from where Russian soldiers are amassed. For seven months, Viktor’s unit has held this sector of the front, repelling a relentless onslaught of Russian assaults.
Now in the third year of full-scale war, Ukraine’s top military leaders openly admit that the battlefield situation on the eastern front has deteriorated. Two years of war have sapped Ukraine’s ammunition and manpower, while the country’s failed counter-offensive last year sank morale.
As Reuters traveled along the eastern stretch of Ukraine’s 1,000-kilometer front line in April, soldiers in infantry, artillery and drone units all expressed exhaustion. They spoke of an acute shortage of ammunition and an urgent need to replenish troops. A new push by Moscow earlier this month near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, is likely to further divert precious ammunition and personnel from other sections of the front, stretching Kyiv’s military thin at a critical moment in the war.
Though Congress finally greenlit a long-delayed $60 billion U.S. military package in April, analysts say that a severe worldwide shortage of artillery shells means Ukraine will likely be outgunned by Russia for the remainder of the year as Kyiv’s allies ramp up production. Reuters could not independently establish how much of the new U.S. weaponry has made it to the front line. On a visit this month to Kyiv, Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured Ukraine that the delayed aid was “now on the way” and some had “already arrived.”
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said recently there were no reports of artillery shortages. But in an interview last week with Reuters, he called on Western allies to speed up aid, saying every decision they’ve made on military support for Ukraine has been “late by around one year.”
With the possibility of Donald Trump, who has questioned American military aid to Ukraine, returning to the presidency later this year, many Ukrainians fear the continued support of their most powerful ally hangs in the balance.
Russia, meanwhile, has continued to batter Ukraine with seemingly endless resources.
President Vladimir Putin, riding high as he begins his fifth term, has redoubled his war effort. In 2014, Russian-backed separatists staged a battle to control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. Since 2022, Putin has made clear his aims to annex the entirety of the area, known as Donbas. To that end, Russian forces have made steady advances in recent months. In February, they captured the eastern city of Avdiivka.
Now, Russia is trying to seize Chasiv Yar, a strategic hilltop city that, if captured, would allow its troops to more easily advance toward the remaining cities of the Donetsk region. Russia’s recent incursions in Kharkiv have distracted the world’s attention from the heavy battles being waged in the Donetsk region, Zelenskiy told Reuters.
The Ukrainian armed forces and the Russian defense ministry did not respond to questions for this story.
Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago, Viktor, the infantryman, was working as a window framer outside of Uman, a city in central Ukraine. His wife had just given birth to a baby daughter. They lived with his parents in his childhood home built on a small hill overlooking verdant forests and fields that changed color with the seasons. (Like all of the Ukrainians profiled in this report, Viktor asked to be identified by his first name only, in keeping with military protocol.)
Viktor received his mobilization notice four months after the beginning of the war. He was quickly sent to an area in northern Ukraine that borders Russia to dig trenches and fortifications. Later, he was transferred to Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, where mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner group were fighting to capture the city. Last September, Viktor was handed a Browning machine gun and taught how to clean and maintain the weapon. A week later, he was transferred to the front in Donetsk without having fired a single practice round.
When Viktor’s infantry unit first arrived here, thickets of oak and birch trees lined the grassy fields. There were still birds in the trees then and the leaves were just starting to change color. The soldiers dug trenches into the tough black soil but had no time to cover them with wooden planks before the Russian bombardment started. Through winter, the Russians’ near-constant shelling reduced the trees and fields to ashes, leaving only a tangle of charred stumps.
In winter, temperatures in Viktor’s trench fell as low as minus 26 degrees Celsius. On warmer days, shin-high water pooled at the bottom of the canal, mixing with the earth to turn into slushy mud, soaking everything. All the while, Russian drones flew overhead, hovering above the open trench and dropping grenades.
At the beginning of this year, Russian forces attempted yet another assault, driving an armored personnel carrier into a field just meters from Viktor’s position. He fired at the vehicle with his machine gun and diverted it to a minefield, where it detonated a mine and exploded.
Several of the Russian soldiers died in their vehicle, say Viktor and his commander. Others survived with serious injuries and tried to crawl through the minefield back toward the Russian positions. One of them, a former convict from Russia’s Buryatia region, was taken prisoner, Viktor says. Immediately afterward, Russian attacks on Viktor’s position intensified.
“So of course the Russians were angry. They lost equipment, lost people, so of course they started shelling with everything they have,” Viktor says.
In the heat of battle, all you can do is pray, he says. Around his neck, Viktor wears silver medallions of the Virgin Mary and the crucifix. But when the situation is truly dire, he will pray to every God he knows.
After Russia’s failed assault, their drones started dropping gas canisters into Viktor’s trench. A colorless, odorless gas would quickly fill the trench as Viktor and his partner fumbled in the dark for their gas masks. Coughing and sputtering, Viktor would crawl into a hole dug into the side of the trench just tall enough for him to crouch in and grab his phone. There, using candlelight, he would flick through photos and videos of his now two-year-old daughter on his phone.
The Ukrainian military says Russia has ramped up its use of riot-control chemical agents to clear trenches on the front line. The U.S. State Department says Russia is deploying a choking agent called chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops, in violation of the international chemical weapons ban. The U.S. allegations were unfounded, the Russian foreign ministry said this month.
When spring finally came, nothing flowered. All Viktor sees now are the outlines of blackened tree trunks on the horizon.
His exhaustion is palpable – the result of months spent holding the line against an enemy with seemingly endless manpower and weaponry. Death and injury are constant and every day is a reminder of the asymmetry of the war.
A declassified U.S. intelligence report in December assessed that Russia had lost as much as 90% of the personnel it had at the start of the 2022 invasion, with 315,000 soldiers killed or injured. Despite the losses, Russia is still estimated to have almost 500,000 servicemen in Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, and has continued to replenish its troops, recruiting heavily from prisons and from the general public. Ukrainian officials say Russia is planning to add another 300,000 soldiers in time for its summer offensive.
Russia’s new defense minister said this month there were no plans for a new mass call-up of troops. Russian officials also say Western estimates of Russian losses are inaccurate.
Zelenskiy recently signed off on a long-debated mobilization law to bolster Ukraine’s armed forces, which number around 800,000. The law, passed in April, lowers the draft age to 25 from 27. The government hasn’t said how many new conscripts the law would yield, and how soon they can reinforce the troops already on the front line.
“It’s not like how it looks on a map, with all these pretty lines and arrows,” Viktor says. “I see my friends, what’s happened to them, what we’re fighting. It’s hell. It’s worse than hell.”
In February, the constant Russian assaults, sleep deprivation, and fear finally got to Viktor. He woke up one morning frozen with terror, physically unable to go to his position.
“I couldn’t calm myself down,” he says. “Not even that I didn’t want to go, but I couldn’t go. I was physically and mentally tired.”
Viktor was paralyzed by anxiety. What if he failed to do his job properly, what if something went wrong with his gun, what if he let down his comrades, whom he calls his “brothers” and considers his second family?
He shared his concerns with his company commander. Despite a severe shortage of soldiers on the front, the commander gave Viktor a few days of rest and time to talk with a psychologist. That short reprieve saved him and helped reframe his fear of death.
Much, much more at the link!
The BBC brings us news about Estonia’s strategic concerns: (emphasis mine)
Estonia considers itself a front-line state, a Nato member where its border guards stare across the Narva River at the Russian fortress of Ivangorod.
This tiny Baltic state, once a part of the Soviet Union, is convinced that once the fighting stops in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin will turn his attention to the Baltics, looking to bring countries like Estonia back under Moscow’s control.
To help stave off that possibility, Estonia’s government has poured money and weapons into Ukraine’s war effort, donating more than 1% of its GDP to Kyiv.
“If every Nato country did this,” says Estonia’s steely Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, “Ukraine would win.”
But Ukraine isn’t winning.
Short of artillery, ammunition, air defences and most of all, troops, Ukraine is struggling to hold back the sheer weight of Russian firepower, glide bombs and massed infantry assaults that often border on the suicidal.
What, I asked Prime Minister Kallas, is Estonia’s Plan B if Ukraine loses this war and Russia’s invasion ultimately succeeds?
“We have no Plan B for a Russian victory,” she replies, “because then we would stop focussing on Plan A” – helping Ukraine push back the Russian invasion.
“We should not give in to pessimism. Victory in Ukraine is not just about territory. If Ukraine joins Nato, even without some territory, then that’s a victory because it will be placed under the Nato umbrella.”
Kaja Kallas is controversial. She is not the first national leader to be more popular outside their country than within.
Born a Soviet citizen, her mother and grandmother were forcibly deported to Siberia.
Now 46 and prime minister since 2021, she is one of the most hawkish leaders in Nato when it comes to blunting the Kremlin’s ambitions in Europe. That has spooked some in the White House that she risks dragging the West into direct conflict with Moscow.
Many Estonians are also less than happy at taxes being raised to pay for their contribution to Ukraine’s defence. But Kaja Kallas wants the West to wake up to what she sees as an existential threat from a newly aggressive Russia.
“Russia wants to sow fear in our societies,” she tells us, sitting in the cabinet office in Estonia’s equivalent of 10 Downing Street, overlooking the soaring spires and ancient castle walls of Tallinn’s Old Town.
“We see different hybrid attacks in many parts of the EU.””
Hybrid attacks”, also known as “sub-threshhold” or “grey zone” warfare, are hostile actions suspected of being carried out by an adversary such as Russia where no shots are necessarily fired, no-one is killed and blame is often hard to pin – yet the damage can be extensive.
An example, still unsolved, would be the mysterious underwater explosions that blew up the Nordstream gas pipelines beneath the Baltic Sea in 2022. Another example is the recent allegation of Russian electronic interference in flights passing close to its exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast.
In its latest annual report, Estonia’s internal security service Kapo quotes the example of last autumn when hundreds of schools in Estonia and other Baltic states were sent emails claiming bombs had been placed in school buildings.
“Such threats,” says the report, “aim to create psychological and emotional tension by targeting the most vulnerable – threatening the safety of children”.
So just how vulnerable is Estonia to a future Russian invasion?
“We have to prepare for war so that we don’t have one,” says one Nato officer, speaking on the sidelines of Nato’s Exercise Steadfast Defender.
Down on Estonia’s southern border with Latvia, ageing British Challenger 2 tanks and other 1980s-era armoured vehicles lurch over farmland, belching exhaust fumes into the clear spring air.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was something of a wake-up call for the Western alliance. It made Nato chiefs realise that they needed to significantly beef up their military presence on Europe’s eastern flank if they are to deter any future Russian invasion.
Today the UK leads a 1,200-strong battle group based in Tapa, northern Estonia, and composed of tanks, infantry, artillery, drones and a company of France’s elite mountain infantry.
Much more at the link.
Moscow via Beijing:
Putin had three big asks from Xi in Beijing:
– Power of Siberia-2, which Gazprom needs to replace lost European exports
– more Chinese banking in Russia despite possible US sanctions
– for China to skip Ukraine’s peace summitHe only got the last one. https://t.co/0offI4HZS9
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 2, 2024
This should provide a strong signal to Biden’s nat-sec team about just how weak Putin really is and, as a result, why giving him any real credence in your deliberations is strategic malpractice. I do not expect the signal to be picked up, let alone the message to be received.
Speaking of China:
A Chinese trade body sought to buy drone-jamming equipment for Russian buyers last month, underlining close ties between the countries amid concerns in Europe and the US over China’s supply of dual-use technology to Moscow. @leahyjoseph @maxseddon Sun Yuhttps://t.co/EVJ57PV0Lk
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 2, 2024
From The Financial Times:
A Chinese trade body sought to buy drone-jamming equipment for Russian buyers last month, underlining the close ties between the two countries amid concerns in Europe and the US over China’s supply of dual-use technology to Moscow.
The government-affiliated Guangdong Province Trade Promotion Association for Russia, which was set up last year to help Russian customers buy goods ranging from trucks to boats, posted a “Notice of foreign enterprises purchasing [unmanned aerial vehicle] equipment” on its WeChat social media site.
The association said the buyers wanted “interference generators, drone detectors (trade names BorisTone, Assel Labs, Bulat) or other similar technological solutions, UAV suppressors, communication frequency band jammers”.
The buyers wanted a locally made equivalent to the Bulat drone detectors, which were developed by a St Petersburg company, 3mx. 3mx has said that these detectors have been used “on the front lines” during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The US has repeatedly said it wants to stop supplies reaching Russia’s defence industry through China, which it sees a vital route to sustain President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.
US deputy Treasury secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Friday that the US and Europe “must make the choice stark for China”. “Chinese firms can either do business in our economies or they can equip Russia’s war machine with dual-use goods. They cannot do both,” Adeyemo said in a speech to German business leaders in Berlin on Friday.
China plays a dominant role in the global drone supply chain and DJI, which is based in Shenzhen in Guangdong province, is the world’s largest commercial drone maker by shipments.
Last month, the US Treasury placed sanctions on two Chinese groups — Wuhan Global Sensor Technology and Wuhan Tongsheng Technology — that officials previously told reporters were helping Russia.
The Treasury also targeted Juhang Aviation, a company based in Shenzhen, that produces drone-related equipment, including propellers, signal jammers, sensors and engines.
According to its WeChat account profile, the Guangdong Province Trade Promotion Association for Russia was established under the guidance of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce. Guangdong, a tech manufacturing superpower, is one of the country’s wealthiest provinces.
The association’s responsibilities include co-ordinating with the province to encourage global trade, assisting in connecting with Russian buyers, interpreting economic and trade policies and providing legal consultation services related to Russia.
More at the link.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new(ish) video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Ось така була моя весна 🍃🌼😌
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
This was my spring 🍃🌼😌
Open thread!
YY_Sima Qian
Buying Russian gas through the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline at close to subsidized domestic prices, & only guaranteeing to purchase a fraction of planned capacity, are truly onerous terms. Margins, taking into the account the cost of pipeline construction, must be very low. Russia had been using the fat profits from selling into the EU market to subside domestic prices. Not surprising Alexei Miller has balked so far. If Putin actually sign up to such a deal, you known Russia’s situation must be truly desperate. Just another piece of evidence of Putin’s epic geopolitical blunder in invading Ukraine again
More excerpts from the FT article:
West of the Rockies
It would be excellent if Russians had to face social and economic backlash for about 50 years. A Russian athlete appears at The Olympics, constant booing occurs. Maybe boot them out of the NHL. FUCK Russia.
Jay
As always, thank you Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: BTW, the projected Chinese demand for natural gas in 2040 cited in the FT articles is probably too high. Natural gas is rarely used to generate electricity in the PRC. Power generation comes from coal, hydro, solar/wind, & nuclear, w/ coal steadily falling percentage wise (& might start to decline absolutely from this year on), wind/solar/nuclear rising fast, & hydro is an x-factor beholden to weather & climate change.
Natural gas is used in the PRC for heating, as feedstock to manufacture chemicals, & for cooking. Across northern & northeastern China, most communities rely upon piped steam from coal fire plants for winter heating. As we project to 2040, the PRC might have started deploying fleets of small/medium pebble bed reactors (which operate in the same ultra-supercritical range for steam as the newer coal fire fleet) as drop in replacements for coal boilers. By 2040, ever cheaper & ever more abundant clean energy in the PRC could make producing green hydrogen via electrolysis (perhaps w/ storage as ammonia) economically competitive, & that can serve the bulk of the demands from heavy duty transport & chemicals feedstock.
These are also factors why the PRC is insisting on steeply discounted prices, flexible qty, & has been very hesitant to commit to a deal that will last through 2050. By then, the PRC could be an exporter of green hydrogen.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
A long pipeline is also difficult to defend, especially if the Russian Federation destabilizes in one or more of the regions hosting it.
Also, for fun just because we’re approaching a busier-than-average solar maximum: Space weather risk in power systems and pipelines (2000)(sci-hub has it)
It is said to affect mostly East-West pipelines, to be clear.
Devore
thanks Adam. with the US Presidential election in just 5 months. Wonder if Russian is throwing everything they have at Ukraine now
YY_Sima Qian
Zelenskyy did not mince words wrt the PRC at the Shangri-La Dialogues, via Richard Walker of DW:
Zelenskyy is smart to throw PRC external messaging back to its face, to highlight the hypocrisy. Not a surprise that Xi declined to participate in a forum whose purpose is to isolate Russia internationally. However, if the PRC did try to convince others (presumably Global South countries) from attending, then Zelenskyy is right to call out the PRC government.
As for the very vague claim of PRC possibly selling weapons & munitions to Russia, I guess we will have to see. Nothing has followed the British DM’s accusations last week. It is conceivable that Russia is purchasing PRC produced munitions from Global South countries that had purchased such munitions from the PRC. Both Ukraine & Russia are purchasing PRC made civilian drones, drone components, & anti-drone EW kits.
Zelenskyy has been carefully muted in his criticism of Xi & the PRC government previously. I suppose the new reality is that there is not much prospect of the PRC reducing its support to Russian civilian economy & dual use industry, nor much danger of the PRC supplying lethal weapons (his ad lib comments at the SLD notwithstanding), nor much risk of the PRC stopping its purchase of Ukrainian grains, nor much prospect for a settled end to the conflict in the short to medium term (the PRC will play an important role to guarantee a settlement). Thus, there is little downside risk to him sharpening his criticism, though there is probably not much upside benefits, either.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: Yes, Ukraine has shown the capability to strike Russian energy infrastructure, though it will probably refrain from targeting pipelines (certainly one of the red lines for the Biden Administration). Still, the pipeline will be vulnerable to sabotage, which is much more deniable.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid In response to your post from yesterday’s thread, it is very interesting that Fidan is visiting Ürumqi & Kashgar in Xinjiang. Erdoğan has been very opportunistic when it comes to the CPC regime’s oppression of Uyghurs there, alternating between vociferous criticism & turning a blind eye, depending on how much economic support (trade, investment, purchasing of debt, etc.) Türkiye needs from the PRC at any given moment. The fact that Fidan is allowed to visit the Uyghur heartland of Kashgar likely suggests that the two governments have reached an understanding that Fidan will be muted in criticism of CPC policies there, assuming he offers any at all.
Of course, the worst of the oppression (such as mass detentions/”vocational training”) had ended in 2019, anyone the PRC domestic security apparatus suspects of harboring sympathies for separatism, militancy & Salafism have been jailed or exiled, & much of the Uyghur population cowed/incentivized toward more material pursuits. The security presence in Xinjiang, while still more intense than the rest of the country, is less intimidating & Uyghurs are less harassed for being Uyghurs in daily lives. Mosques & Islamic religious practices in general remain closely surveilled & sometimes restricted, some of the smaller mosques established w/in the past 3 decades have been shut, but the overall atmosphere appear to be less oppressive than in the late 10s. That might give Fidan & Erdoğan enough fig leaf to not harp on the subject for a while.
The PRC position on Gaza is entirely cynical & self-serving. I doubt it will stand in the way of any ceasefire or peace deal, & might be willing to be constructive (& certainly be seen as doing so). I am not sure how much common interest the PRC & Türkiye have wrt Ukraine, other than dissuading Putin from nuclear escalation & keeping Ukrainian grains exports flowing. I don’t think the CPC leadership actually wants to see Ukraine subjugated by Russia, a la Belarus, as that would put Russia back on the path to being a great power again, but the prospect is not nearly as concerning to Beijing as it is to Ankara.
YY_Sima Qian
Sounds about right:
FYI, Tanner Greer is among the long standing China Hawks, but a reality based one that argues/reasons in good faith.
Gloria DryGarden
Constant terror.
just thinking of individual humans, living this.
Ishiyama
Russia’s resources are vast, but not inexhaustible; Ukraine’s resources are severely strained, but the potential for allied support and/or participation awaits the event. As long as Ukraine avoids military collapse, the pragmatic strategist will let them bear the brunt of wearing out Russia’s men and materials, waiting and hoping for developments, political or military, that will draw Putin’s teeth. Better to intervene against a weakened foe. It’s not pretty, but there is always a balance between timing and risk. Avoid risk , if possible, until you no longer can avoid acting, is the doctrine.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Bruce K in ATH-GR
I read something in the Greek newspaper Kathimerini that apparently they’re building up natural gas infrastructure here to handle imports from the US – not for local consumption, because Greece is really ramping up renewable sources, but for export to the rest of Europe. I’ve been professionally involved with projects to set up gas pipelines connecting Greece with the Balkans. This is explicitly connected with reducing demand for, and dependence on, Russian natural gas, eroding Putin’s economic leverage and international cash inflow at the same time.
Link here (warning: FTFNYT link. Apologies: might be paywalled.)
daveNYC
@Ishiyama: Russia doesn’t have literally inexhaustible resources of men and material, true; but that’s not the same as saying that they’re going to run out of either anytime soon.
And avoiding risk until you have no other choice is… not great as a plan. Basically means that you’re waiting until things hit a crisis point before you do anything. You can see the results of that in the northern front, where Russia was able to get in weeks of shelling from their side of the border before Ukraine was allowed to strike back.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Yes, Foreign Minister Fidan is unlikely to raise a fuss about the Uygurs. It’s not like Turkiye has leverage here. China and Turkiye are not really in conflict anywhere that I can tell, but Turkiye is always trying to improve trade relations where it can. Turkiye has pursed an active foreign policy in its immediate region and in Africa as well, so Fidan will want to as keep the two nations from working at cross-purposes as much zs possible when it comes to countries like Somalia.
I’m mainly interested in this visit because I’m interested in Mr. Fidan. His boss,, R.T. Erdogan, is an abrasive and stubborn person who really needed a Foreign Minister he could trust to handle Turkiye’s complex foreign relations effectively.
Fidan’s watchword is “Intitutionalization,” which I think means a coherent and systematic approach to foreign relations, regional and bilateral. So far, his successes include resolving problems with Sweden that stood in the way of that country’s NATO accession, and then wrangling the F-16 sale this winter (the FBI agents who found Senator Menendez’s gold bars probably deserve some credit for the last). Fidan has also helped get Turkish-Greek relations back on track after some years of tension.
Lately, Fidan has worked intensively with both Iraq’s central government and the Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil. The goal is acquiescence to Turkiye’s projected military campaign against PKK forces based in Iraq’s mountainous border region.
So it’s an important visit even if there are no immediate substantial results. And a joint press appearance by the two FMs will make a good picture if there is the usual background of alternating national flags, because Turkey’s and China’s are so much alike.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: As the PRC reduced direct lending to large physical infrastructure projects in Africa since ’18 or so, Türkiye (along w/ the Gulf States & to lesser extents South Korea & India) have been moving in to partially fill the void. Sometimes they compete w/ Chinese construction companies for subcontracting work, & some times they subcontract work to Chinese concerns.
Sub-Saharan Africa, MENA, Central Asia & South Asia are the geographic regions that Türkiye & the PRC can either coordinate their efforts or compete against each other for influence, or both simultaneously. Likewise, France & Germany have a history of collaborating w/ the PRC to facilitate their companies to jointly execute projects in Sub-Saharan Africa, even though neither has officially signed on to the BRI.
The current zeitgeist in DC precludes such Sino-US collaboration. Which is a pity, since the US (& Western Europe & Japan) & the PRC (& Türkiye, the Gulf States & India) bring complementary skill sets. The US, Canada, the UK & the EU have largely allowed their infrastructure project management technology & expertise atrophy, & the PRC has developed an appreciation for good governance, financial & environmental sustainability, & social responsibility as important factors contributing to the ultimate success of projects & ultimately the PRC banks getting paid for the loans they have issued in Global South countries.