(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping updated: Rosie had the first chemotherapy of the second round today. She did great. The oncology vet and her team think she looks great, there were no issues with her bloodwork, and she’s scheduled for he next treatment next Monday. Right now she’s lying just below my feet on the bed watching it pour down rain. Usually the way this works is she’s fine until Wednesday or Thursday and then the systemic effect kicks in. We’ll see if that happens this time. If it does, we’re all set with appetite stimulants. Ruby is also doing well. Thank you all for all the good thoughts, prayers, well wishes, and donations. They are all greatly appreciated.
It has been a long day though, so I’m going to try to keep tonight’s update on the shorter side.
I’m aware of The Kyiv Post‘s reporting regarding Syria. I’m not including it because I’d like to see additional corroboration.
As I begin tonight’s update at 6:10 PM EDT, air raid alerts are up for Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Russia has completely degraded Kharkiv’s ability to generate power:
There is no longer any local electricity generation in Kharkiv, so it is forced to obtain electricity from other cities, said Mayor Ihor Terekhov.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 3, 2024
Sumy Oblast, or, more accurately, just over the border in Russia:
The column of military equipment of the russian army in the Kursk region was destroyed by the collaborative efforts of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade and the 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade. pic.twitter.com/bg9m5Rf3Ec
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 3, 2024
Розбиття російської колони у Курській області💥
Нещодавно біля нашого державного кордону на межі Сумщини сталась дуже дивна ситуація – здуру російська колона вантажного транспорту викотилась у поле.
Без мети, бо у російських вояк-камікадзе є тільки шлях. Шлях до смерті.Воїни… pic.twitter.com/6fIWGY65mz
— Serhii Sternenko ✙ (@sternenko) June 3, 2024
Here is the machine translation of Sternenko’s tweet:
The breakdown of the Russian convoy in the Kursk region 💥
Recently, a very strange situation happened near our state border on the border of Sumy Oblast – a Russian convoy of freight transport rolled into a field.
Without a goal, because Russian kamikaze soldiers have only one way. The road to death.Soldiers of the 53rd mechanized brigade of the Malibu unit and the Wing to Hell of the 103rd OBrTRO defeated this column.
Some of the equipment escaped, some was destroyed.
Including your drones.We are currently actively providing FPV units for the border, so your 2 hryvnias will be very appropriate 👇
President Zelenskyy is still traveling. There are no new videos posted at the President of Ukraine’s YouTube channel.
The cost:
🕯️Після 12-денної боротьби за життя у лікарні від поранень помер відомий громадський діяч із Дніпра, воїн Денис Капітуров
⬇️https://t.co/CMC014xQTZ pic.twitter.com/WagF7QyDga— Новинарня (@Novynarnia) June 3, 2024
Here’s the machine translation:
🕯️ After a 12-day struggle for life in the hospital, a well-known public figure from Dnipro, soldier Denys Kapiturov, died of wounds
⬇️
https://novynarnia.com/2024/06/03/pislya-12-dennoyi-borotby-za-zhyttya-u-likarni-vid-poranen-pomer-vidomyj-gromadskyj-diyach-iz-dnipra-voyin-denys-kapiturov/
🕯️На війні за Україну загинув грузинський боєць Хвіча Гвінджішвілі
⬇️https://t.co/OnaJ6IYmgg pic.twitter.com/CTIVCtDOZY— Новинарня (@Novynarnia) June 3, 2024
And the machine translation:
🕯️ Georgian fighter Hvicha Gvindzhishvili died in the war for Ukraine
⬇️
https://novynarnia.com/2024/06/03/na-vijni-za-ukrayinu-zagynuv-gruzynskyj-boyecz-hvicha-gvindzhishvili/
Памʼятайте про нього.
Це Новіков Олександр. Він був студентом факультету іноземних мов Каразінського університету.
Загинув 18.05.2024 в боях на Харківщині. pic.twitter.com/zEhNTpjlKZ— Математикіт🇺🇦 (@math_cat21) June 3, 2024
Remember him.
This is Oleksandr Novikov. He was a student of the Faculty of Foreign Languages of the Karazin University.
Died on May 18, 2024 in battles in the Kharkiv region.
Italy:
+1 SAMP/T air defense system coming from 🇮🇹Italy.
We shall prevail!!
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 3, 2024
Italy will send a second SAMP/T air defence system to Ukraine, its foreign minister said in a radio interview on Monday.
A source close to the matter told Reuters earlier that Italy would likely ship to Ukraine a SAMP/T system which is currently deployed in Kuwait, but is soon… pic.twitter.com/HRxf5e1CcH
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 3, 2024
Italy will send a second SAMP/T air defence system to Ukraine, its foreign minister said in a radio interview on Monday.
A source close to the matter told Reuters earlier that Italy would likely ship to Ukraine a SAMP/T system which is currently deployed in Kuwait, but is soon due to return to Italy.
Reuters has the details:
ROME, June 3 (Reuters) – Italy will send a second SAMP/T air defence system to Ukraine, its foreign minister said in a radio interview on Monday, responding to Kyiv’s pleas for greater help to fend off Russian missile attacks.
The system, also known as MAMBA, is a Franco-Italian battery that can track dozens of targets and intercept 10 at once. It is the only European-made system that can intercept ballistic missiles.
Rome and Paris jointly delivered a first system in 2023, but in recent months Ukraine has repeatedly called on partners to provide more help with air defence as it faces an increasing barrage of attacks on cities and energy infrastructure.
“It is known that we will send SAMP/T, which is an instrument of air defence, therefore of protection, that Ukraine itself asked us for,” Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told state broadcaster Rai, confirming earlier media reports.A
ll shipments have so far been covered by official secrecy and the government has never made public the exact list of weapons it has sent to Ukraine.
A source close to the matter told Reuters earlier that Italy would likely ship to Ukraine a SAMP/T system which is currently deployed in Kuwait, but is soon due to return to Italy.
Corriere della Sera newspaper reported on Monday that the government could green light the new supplies after a summit of leaders of the Group of Seven major democracies, which Italy will host on June 13-15.
More at the link.
The US:
The news here, if I may suggest, is that Biden appears not to be attending a summit that @ZelenskyyUa has been working for months to get heads of government to. https://t.co/t520J1bqin
— laurence norman (@laurnorman) June 3, 2024
Frontelligence Insight is documenting significant movements of enemy reserves, involving hundreds of military vehicles of various types. This likely indicates that the Russians are preparing for another serious push. Russian offensive is unlikely to conclude soon
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) June 3, 2024
Now we watch and wait and see what the Russians do.
Kharkiv is not the only part of Ukraine that is experiencing power generation and/or transmission problems.
The authorities are well aware of the current situation with the energy sector, and Kyiv residents should prepare for power outages of 7-8 hours, energy expert Oleksandr Kharchenko said.https://t.co/8QTQAJHez6
— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) June 3, 2024
From The New Voice of Ukraine:
The authorities are well aware of the current situation with the energy sector, and Kyiv residents should prepare for power outages of 7-8 hours, energy expert Oleksandr Kharchenko said in an interview with Radio NV on June 2.
“Everyone understands everything, but they don’t want to voice it,” the director of the Energy Industry Research Center said.
“Listen, it’s all been calculated… All the numbers are absolutely clear; it’s unclear what the consequences of additional attacks will be, it’s an uncertainty factor. And it is not entirely clear for several facilities that can be restored or not. It will depend on how quickly certain equipment arrives. And this has not yet been determined definitively.”
The blackouts will continue.
“I can assure you 100% that there will be blackouts,” Kharchenko said.
“And they will last at least three to four hours a day. This is an ideal scenario. For now, Kyiv needs to prepare for seven to eight hours a day. Again, this is not a bad scenario, it could be worse.”
Speaking about the work of the critical headquarters, Kharchenko said: “I may tell you an unexpected thing: we have at least four such headquarters that do not coordinate what they do; their decisions are mostly not implemented at all. And this is how it functions.”
As a result of a missile strike by Russia on April 11, 2024, the Trypillia Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv Oblast was completely destroyed.
Centrenergo lost 100% of its generation after the destruction of Trypillia TPP.
The Dnipro HPP lost both power plants in March 2024. The dam held, but the equipment was destroyed, and it may take years to restore Dnipro HPP.
The CHPP-5 was destroyed in Kharkiv, and restoring it is like building a new one, which will also take several years.
The Zmiyiv TPP (part of Centrenergo) in Kharkiv Oblast was also destroyed.
DTEK Group (beneficiary – Rinat Akhmetov) said it had lost 80% of its generation.
All power units of the Burshtyn and Ladyzhyn TPPs were damaged.
Gas storage facilities in western Ukraine were also damaged.
Two hydroelectric power plants have been decommissioned as of May 9, 2024.
Controlled emergency blackouts were introduced in all regions of Ukraine on May 14, 2024.
Here’s the video of the interview:
Russian occupied Luhansk:
Ukrainian drone operators hit a ‘no-analogue’ Kasta-2E2 radar system in the Luhansk region.
Despite the fact that the system was designed to control airspace and identify air targets at low altitudes, it couldn’t survive a drone attack.📹: @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/j3fdYovhK6
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 3, 2024
Pokrovsk, Donestk Oblast:
Russian forces continue to advance towards Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast over the past week.https://t.co/r0lSu5lIMU https://t.co/6wi822VEDs pic.twitter.com/87D7VgO2oL
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 3, 2024
Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
Vovchansk. A battle between Russian assault group and the “Liut” Brigade of he National Police of Ukraine. 2 Russian infantrymen were killed and 1 was wounded.https://t.co/n7YvQAfaGw pic.twitter.com/zyVhOm0mG5
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 3, 2024
A Russian soldier revealed the true meaning of the offensive near Volchansk. According to him, this is nothing more than another meat grinder, where untrained Russian soldiers are sent under machine guns and drones and are not allowed to retreat. Result: one after another, groups… pic.twitter.com/GvqUV59mB8
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 3, 2024
A Russian soldier revealed the true meaning of the offensive near Volchansk. According to him, this is nothing more than another meat grinder, where untrained Russian soldiers are sent under machine guns and drones and are not allowed to retreat. Result: one after another, groups are simply destroyed, and new ones come to replace them. In the company of this soldier, contract soldier Anton Andreev from the 5th company of the 1009th regiment, only 12 people out of 100 remained.
At the same time, he realizes that orders to his superiors come from Moscow, and they also cannot do anything about it.
Source / Astra: https://t.me/astrapress/56830
Starytsya, Kharkiv Oblast:
Starytsya, Kharkiv front. Russian assault group comes under Ukrainian small arms fire. After which remaining Russians take cover and Ukrainian drone operators launch precise strikes at them. https://t.co/dhNdrKz58B https://t.co/ko7wfw9gvJ pic.twitter.com/SAkt5Zcx3U
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 3, 2024
My latest on why Biden et al are prepared to risk allowing Ukraine to use US weapons inside Russia – and current western thinking about how to handle Russian nuclear threats https://t.co/J5JBzfMBrU
— Gideon Rachman (@gideonrachman) June 3, 2024
From The Financial Times:
Russia is once again waving around its nuclear weapons. Last week, Vladimir Putin warned Nato countries against allowing Ukraine to use western munitions to strike Russia. The Russian leader warned of “serious consequences” and said that Ukraine’s allies should be aware of the “small territory” and “dense population” of many European countries.
In case this was too vague, Dmitry Medvedev followed up with a more blood-curdling threat. Russia’s former president cited Putin’s words and added: “The use of tactical nuclear weapons can also be miscalculated. This would be a fatal mistake.”
Medvedev has a reputation as a man who is fond of strong drink. But Moscow has also taken actions recently to underline its threats, with Russian troops conducting nuclear drills near the border with Ukraine.
These moves have not deterred several Nato nations, including the US, from taking the latest step up the escalation ladder by approving the use of their weapons inside Russian borders.
This latest move by Nato nations reflects a mix of confidence and nervousness. On the positive side, the US and its European allies are now less concerned about the threat that Russia will go nuclear than they were 18 months ago.
On the negative side, they are also increasingly uneasy about the situation on the battlefield. The new willingness to allow Ukraine to strike back at enemy artillery positions and missile bases — even if they are inside Russia itself — reflects a concern that Ukraine is gradually losing the war. As a result, Kyiv’s western backers feel compelled to tolerate a greater level of risk to keep Ukraine in the fight.
The west’s willingness to take on this level of risk represents a dramatic shift in thinking since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Back then, Nato countries were nervous about providing Ukraine with any offensive weapons.
The provision of each new significant capability to Kyiv — long-range missiles, tanks, fighter jets — has been accompanied by prolonged, sometimes agonised, debate in the west and by nuclear threats from Russia. But each time the Nato countries have crossed a threshold, the Kremlin has failed to make good on its nuclear threats. And that has made it easier for the western alliance to take the next step.
But the fact that the US and its allies are no longer quite so anxious about Russia’s nuclear posturing does not mean that they dismiss the threat completely. Indeed, there are some western officials who remain very uneasy about the potential for escalation involved in authorising the use of weapons, provided by the west, to strike Russian territory.
Their concern is that Russia will regard this latest step as the escalation of a proxy war by the west and could make what it regards as a symmetrical response — involving counterstrikes on Nato territory. That might lead Russia and Nato very close to the direct conflict that western leaders have always sought to avoid. Russian military doctrine is believed to assume that Moscow cannot prevail in a conventional war with the west, and so to envisage the early use of nuclear weapons.
Despite talk by Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, of eventually stationing French troops on Ukrainian soil, the western alliance is still trying to maintain its clear red line against direct involvement in a conflict with Russia.
Despite the concerns about Russia’s potential response to this latest move, US decision makers still think that the circumstances that could trigger a Russian nuclear response are fairly distant. The two situations that are most often mentioned are if the Russian army is about to be routed on the battlefield; or if Ukrainian ground forces threaten Crimea, which Russia formally annexed in 2014.
The closest that the world has come to a real nuclear crisis over Ukraine, so far, was in October 2022 — when Russia suffered a series of catastrophic setbacks in the war, including the loss of Kherson. There was one weekend when western officials became seriously concerned that Russia might be on the point of going nuclear.
But that crisis also created a new playbook for how to deal with Russian nuclear threats, when they look really serious. Step one is to talk to Russian counterparts and to threaten direct and massive western involvement in the conflict. Step two is to talk to other major powers — in particular, China and India — and to get them to warn Russia off, preferably in public.
More at the link.
Belgorod Oblast, Russia:
Reportedly, a Russian S-300/400 (?) system component destroyed by Ukraine in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast.
Gone are the two years of the “Ukraine can’t defend itself because WWIII” absurdity.
That avalanche of shameless lies from Kremlin appeasers and brainless surrender cultists… pic.twitter.com/K22hUHwD3N
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 3, 2024
Reportedly, a Russian S-300/400 (?) system component destroyed by Ukraine in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast.
Gone are the two years of the “Ukraine can’t defend itself because WWIII” absurdity.
That avalanche of shameless lies from Kremlin appeasers and brainless surrender cultists cost us way too much – and it put as unforgivably farther sways from just and stable peace in Europe.
Loving this angle of the S-300 in Belgorod after its meeting with HIMARS. pic.twitter.com/X1r08bsMvE
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 3, 2024
If only there were someone to tell the world that:
– the concept of ‘escalation management’ does not work;
– that Russia is not entitled to any ‘safe zone’ for its military power in a war of aggression it started;
– that bowing down to Russian nuclear blackmailing is a lousy… pic.twitter.com/m8G3icFyC6— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 3, 2024
If only there were someone to tell the world that:
– the concept of ‘escalation management’ does not work;
– that Russia is not entitled to any ‘safe zone’ for its military power in a war of aggression it started;
– that bowing down to Russian nuclear blackmailing is a lousy idea that brings the West nowhere and paralyzes its ability to react to a large-scale war of aggression at its very border;
– that imposing drastic restrictions on the Ukrainian use of Western defense aid is absurd, non-sensical, and beneficial to Russia’s war machine;
– that such a half-hearted approach to helping Ukraine tackle the most significant European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler demonstrates weakness and only encourages the Kremlin to escalate its war and expand its acts of aggression
– that the Kremlin openly spits on the West’s attempts to ‘avoid escalation’, or ‘give Putin a chance to stop’ and does as much as it is allowed to with this deliberate omission;
– that Ukraine can win (or at least precipitate a more or less favorable outcome) by directly undermining Russia’s ability to fight and finance this war;
– that highly effective Ukrainian attacks on Russian military power and infrastructure will result in Russia sustaining painful military losses rather than unleashing ‘WWIII,’ a ‘nuclear apocalypse,’ or whatever else Kremlin-paid propagandists and surrender cultists tried to intimidate the Western public opinion with.…or was there?
Anyways, there’s a Russian S-400 system destroyed in a Ukrainian HIMARS strike in Russia’s Belgorod region.
Russia has lost yet another sophisticated air defense system in its territory used in the war on Ukraine.
Obligatory!
Floriduh! Man:
And here’s the DOJ press release on Craig Lang’s extradition to the US, with quite a headline: ‘Former U.S. Soldier Turned Foreign Fighter Extradited from Ukraine to the United States for 2018 Double Homicide, Armed Robbery, Immigration Document Offenses, Aggravated Identity…
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 3, 2024
Here’s the full text of Miller’s first tweet:
An update on a story I’ve followed and reported on for years: I can now report that American Craig Lang’s extradition fight in Ukraine has ended. The right-wing extremist and ex-Army soldier who fought in Ukraine in 2015-16 and is charged with robbing and killing a Florida couple in 2018 to fund more foreign fighting adventures is now in US custody in Florida and making his first court appearance today.
Lang escaped back to Ukraine after allegedly murdering the Florida couple in 2018. He fought extradition for years after his arrest by Ukrainian authorities responding to an Interpol warrant in 2019. But after being denied asylum in Ukraine and losing court battles in Kyiv and finally an appeal to the ECHR, he went into hiding this April, fearing extradition.
Ukrainian prosecutors, police and special forces tracked Lang down earlier this month in Kyiv and detained him. He was held in a detention center in Kyiv before being transferred to Lviv. Last weekend, he was taken to Poland and flown on a government plane to the US.
Lang’s co-conspirator Alex Zwiefelhofer, a right-wing American who also fought in Ukraine, where he met Lang in 2017 after going AWOL from the Army, was convicted of the Florida homicides in March.
Lang now faces his own trial in the case. I’m in touch with the victims’ family who are relieved to see Lang back on US soil to face justice. More info to come.
Amid his extradition battle, Lang briefly took up arms in Irpin in 2022, and he tried to fight elsewhere later but was rejected by Ukrainian units as they became aware of his background.
Here’s some of my past reporting on Lang:
https://buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/craig-lang-ukraine-far-right-extremists-true-crime
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. So here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:
The bright summer sun and 🇺🇦 warrior who takes care of you.
📷: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/oMdCTY3oRD
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 3, 2024
Open thread!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Keeping you, Rosie and Ruby in my heart.
J. Arthur Crank
Christ, at the end of a long day of actual work (something I try to avoid but I am not always successful), the Apple News feed is full of depressing news. Then, I read about all of the fuckery the Russians are up to, and it seems overwhelming at times. However, there are many people in Ukraine and elsewhere who are much worse off than I am, so I should not be complaining.
In that last tweet, who is the warrior, the cat or the human? The human has on a uniform, but a lot of cats are bad asses and don’t take shit from anyone or anything, so you never know.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1797702043223683472#m
According to Convicted Pedophile Scott Ritter, the US has pulled his passport, so no more RT Propaganda Gigs live.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Yutsano
@Jay:
I don’t play strings, so someone needs to take on tiniest violin duties for me.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: If Scott Ritter told me the sky was blue, I’d go outside to check anyway.
Gin & Tonic
I’m surprised Dima sobered up enough to string two sentences together.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
It’s all over the Usual Suspects of Misinformation and Propaganda’s pages, so it might be true,
and he was apparently pulled off a flight to St. Petersburg to do it.
Sadly, it looks like the US is stuck with him for now, warn your daughters.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay:
Jeez, they should have let him go there and not come back. What an own goal.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
If true, it means he is under investigation and facing new charges.
YY_Sima Qian
From the War Zone:
Definitely needs to degrade Russian long range AD before Ukraine F-16s show up.
Prescott Cactus
Thanks Adam !
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Sadly, the ruZZian’s mostly use S-300/S-400 systems as ballistic missiles to pound Ukrainian cities and civilian targets.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
BTW, as shown recently, ruZZian S-300/S-400’s have not fared well against late 80’s “obsolete*” HIMARS and ATACMS that they were supposedly supposed to intercept.
How will they fare against upgraded early/mid/ late 80’s F-16’s?
*the
NaziruZZian vondervaffen seems not to be living up to the hype.YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Ballistic missiles & fighter jets have very different flight profiles. The Ukrainian AF has had to respect the S-300/400s (& RuAF fighters) enough so that their operations over the front lines have been severely curtailed.
However, the S-400s w/ the supposed anti-SRBM capabilities have proven surprisingly ineffective against obsolescent ATACMS w/ predictably ballistic trajectories, & not sure the ATACMS can achieve hypersonic speeds in the terminal phase, either.
YY_Sima Qian
Some of Zelenskyy’s recent activities in SE Asia that have escaped the notice of Western MSM:
I think it is very astute for Zelenskyy to shift on the topic of the War in Gaza. He had been vocally supportive Israel immediately after 10/7 (rightly so), but has been quite mum on Israeli atrocities in Gaza that are often quite reminiscent of Russian ones in Ukraine (& often worse). As the majority of Western governments embraced Israel w/o reservations, Zelenskyy tried to play up the “clash of civilizations” narrative w/ the “democratic West” (traditional West + Israel + Ukraine) on one side & “despotic Russian centric coalition” (Russia + Iran + Hamas/Hezbollah) on the other. It was an understandable move from a realpolitik perspective, & surely Ukraine sought to exploit the opportunity to move Israel from its “straddling” position on the War in Ukraine to one that more favors Ukraine.
However, Israeli conduct in Gaza in the months since has made Ukraine’s calculation untenable. Most parts of the West (the US 1st among them) has suffered significant damage to their credibility in the ROW due to their blatant hypocrisy on Gaza, Ukraine cannot afford to suffer the same. To too much of the cynical/jaded Global South, Zelenskyy is already seen as a puppet of the US/the West, & Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression a proxy conflict meant to bleed Russia. To continue the embrace w/ Israel, in line w/ the US’ hypocritical stance, would have fatally undermined any sympathy Ukraine might have been able to find outside of the West. Especially since Ukraine was getting nothing out of its embrace of Israel, it does not appear that Bibi & his coalition want to embrace Ukraine.
The visit to Manila is intriguing. For the past year, the Philippines has been locked in tense confrontations w/ the PRC around shoals/reefs/rocks/low tide feature in the South China Sea. The Philippines has received strong support from the US, Japan & Australia in its stance, but the rest of the ASEAN has been notably quiet. So, Zelenskyy will certainly find sympathetic ears in Marcos, Jr., but not sure the maneuver is a net positive in the region. Reporting from the other ASEAN capitals seem to indicate that there is little sympathy for the Filipino position on the disputed features (where the confrontations have been taking place) specifically, nor the Filipino strategy of bringing in the US/JPN/AUS to counter PRC weight. Vietnam & Malaysia have competing claims w/ the Philippines over some or all of the Spratley Islands, & the other 9 members of the ASEAN want to see the Sino-US rivalry reduced rather than intensified. Not that there is any sympathy for the PRC’s position wrt the disputed features or PRC CG’s aggressive tactics against Filipino vessels specifically, or the PRC’s nebulous claims over the South China Sea & efforts to push the US influence out of the region in general.
YY_Sima Qian
Meanwhile, there seems to be a stalemate in the Red Sea (click through the link for the IMF plot):
The Houthis’ attempt to harass shipping connected to Israel has not dissuaded Israel from continuing its war of vengeance in Gaza, the stated aim of the Houthi operation. OTOH, all of the strikes by the US & partners has not reopened the Red Sea. In such a stalemate, the Houthis, as the insurgent actor, is sure to claim victory.