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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus (& H5N1) Updates: June 12, 2024

COVID-19 Coronavirus (& H5N1) Updates: June 12, 2024

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Don’t panic, but stay wary:

… The subtype of bird flu that is going around is more accurately called H5N1, and the current outbreak in dairy cows has escalated to an alarming level. The H5N1 virus is now infecting humans, with many field reports of human illness on dairy farms and three documented cases in people, including one with respiratory symptoms. Respiratory signs raise red flags: if the virus can be spread through coughing, this would be a significant step toward human-to-human spread. Yet, despite the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s best efforts, local health departments, urgent care facilities and emergency rooms still do not recognize H5N1 as now representing a human pathogen in the U.S.

As a group of veterinarians with experience in both the poultry and dairy industries, coupled with expertise in both poultry and human outbreaks and influenza viruses, we believe the dairy industry and regulatory agencies need to move quickly to stop H5N1 from seeding a human epidemic.

With the virus crossing species barriers, the specter of human exposure and emergence of a human-adapted strain is rapidly intensifying. This outbreak in dairy cows has the potential to spiral into a human epidemic or even a catastrophic pandemic—the signals of which we may already be seeing.

To prevent this next catastrophe, dairy producers must step forward to encourage the testing of dairy workers. They must increase testing in dairy cows and federal agencies need to report those results to allow us to track how many people and animals (including the cats, dogs and wild birds on farms) have contracted H5N1. There are many anecdotal reports of dairy workers feeling “hungover,” or having more pronounced flulike symptoms. But because symptoms have been generally mild, many people have minimized them and continued to go to work. Vigilant testing is critical to track any changes in the virus that may make it spread more easily among humans…

Really worth reading the whole thing!

The EU will sign a contract on Tuesday to secure over 40 million doses of a preventative avian flu vaccine for 15 countries with the first shipments heading to Finland, EU officials said on Monday.

The deal secures up to 665,000 doses from vaccine manufacturer CSL Seqirus and includes an option for a further 40 million vaccines for a maximum of four years. The vaccines will be jointly procured by the Commission’s emergency health arm HERA and 15 countries in the EU and the European Economic Area.

The doses are intended for those most exposed to the virus, such as poultry farm workers and veterinarians. The United States, Canada and Britain are also in the process of securing preventative vaccine doses…


The bad news: It’ll be at least a year before it’s commercially available:

… In the study, the combination using messenger RNA technology generated greater antibodies than currently marketed traditional flu vaccines and Moderna’s Spikevax mRNA COVID shot, the company said.

The vaccine, called mRNA-1083, elicited a higher immune response against two A strains and one B strain of the flu in older adults when compared with widely used flu shots from GSK and Sanofi, according to the company.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration in March recommended drugmakers target those three strains, called H1N1, H3N2, and B/Victoria, when developing their seasonal flu vaccines for 2024.

The latest data was collected from two arms of a larger study that involved around 8,000 people – one tested the combination against GSK’s Fluarix in adults aged 50 to 64 and another against Sanofi’s Fluzone HD in people 65 and older. Fluzone is a high-dose vaccine for older people.

Moderna President Stephen Hoge said the drugmaker hopes to launch the combination shot for the autumn respiratory disease season in 2025. “If not 2025, then 2026,” he said…

The company said it expects to release the full results from the study at an upcoming medical conference

Important thread:

Both of these are concerning and likely achieve the same things – alienating those who are trying to gain insights on what H5N1 is doing, why it’s pivoted to new species, and what should/could be done for containment and mitigation 2/

The seemingly normal statements in 2024 about viruses not existing, PCR diagnostic validity, etc are part of a much bigger communication issue. Hard to figure out the best way forward when it’s been one barrage of emerging IDs after another. That’s a long-term issue 3/

As for stockpiling statements, it may be best to consider that those at greatest risk for exposure at the moment appear to be those with the least access to antivirals. Perhaps recommending stockpiling kinda misses that whole question about socioeconomic disparities, etc 4/

Perhaps the argument for greater communication and access to PPE would be more beneficial while also appreciating what we do and don’t know about exposure & transmission (as well as outcomes across age, sex, health status, etc) 5/

And we can appreciate that as we move into summer we also move closer to fall in the northern hemisphere and another impending seasonal influenza season – antiviral stockpiling could impact those with serious risks of severe outcomes for influenza more generally 6/

It seems like yet again we have to try and pull back from the two polar extremes and be more balanced in the discussion on H5N1 trends in 2024 while also discussing the shorter-term agricultural and economic implications of wider virus distribution 7/

And obviously monitoring what has, is, and could happen next in regard to human exposures 8/end

*one additional point. The impact of H5N1 expansion on agriculture, agriculture-based livelihoods, and food security should all be top concerns. Transparent, coherent, fact-based communication is absolutely critical

***********

I'm sorry but it's just not true that hospitals aren't reporting COVID deaths. They're using the same methods they always have — and excess deaths are near 0 so it's unlikely they're being misclassified.
I think fewer people really are dying of COVID!
ourworldindata.org/grapher/exce…

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— Michael Hobbes (@michaelhobbes.bsky.social) Jun 3, 2024 at 11:21 AM

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My most recent covid booster knocked me over for a solid week (I also got the RSV vaxx, but the injection-site swelling & rash started on the *covid* arm), so I’m gonna take this as a positive…


Paywall-free MSN version:

… The uptick in aggressive, late-stage cancers since the dawn of the pandemic is confirmed by some early national data and a number of large cancer institutions. Many experts have mostly dismissed the trend as an expected consequence of disruptions to health care that began in 2020.

But not everyone.

The idea that some viruses can cause or accelerate cancer is hardly new. Scientists have recognized this possibility since the 1960s, and today, researchers estimate 15 to 20 percent of all cancers worldwide originate from infectious agents such as HPV, Epstein-Barr and hepatitis B.

It will probably be many years before the world has conclusive answers about whether the coronavirus is complicit in the surge of cancer cases, but Patel and other concerned scientists are calling on the U.S. government to make this question a priority knowing it could affect treatment and management of millions of cancer patients for decades to come.

“We are completely under-investigating this virus,” said Douglas C. Wallace, a University of Pennsylvania geneticist and evolutionary biologist. “The effects of repeatedly getting this throughout our lives is going to be much more significant than people are thinking.” …

But there is no real world data linking SARS-CoV-2 to cancer, and some scientists remain skeptical.

John T. Schiller, a National Institutes of Health researcher and pioneer in the study of cancer-causing viruses, said pathogens known to cause cancer persist in the body long-term. But the class of respiratory viruses that includes influenza and RSV — a family that counts the coronavirus as a member — infects a patient and then typically goes away instead of lingering and is not believed to cause cancer…

David Tuveson, director of the Cancer Center at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory and former president of the American Association for Cancer Research, said there’s no evidence the coronavirus directly transforms cells to make them cancerous. But that may not be the full story.

Tuveson said a number of small and early studies — many of which have been published within the past nine months — suggests that coronavirus infection can induce an inflammatory cascade and other responses that, in theory, could exacerbate the growth of cancer cells.

He has wondered whether it could be more akin to an environmental stressor — like tobacco, alcohol, asbestos or microplastics.

“Covid wrecks the body, and that’s where cancers can start,” Tuveson said, explaining how autopsy studies of people who died of covid-19 showed prematurely aged tissue…

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Triple whammy of poor science communication here. Chan has clout as a PhD (though her expertise is not in virology/pandemics), amplified by space in the NYT, and influential NYT columnist Kristof then amplifies her. This is why the public thinks the "lab leak" evidence is stronger than it is.

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— Tara C. Smith (@aetiology.bsky.social) Jun 5, 2024 at 10:15 AM

If you want to read an actual expert, check this out instead. bsky.app/profile/kgan…

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— Tara C. Smith (@aetiology.bsky.social) Jun 5, 2024 at 5:40 PM

Welcome to California! Just like how antivaxers started out as mostly hippies it will spread. As soon as Biden comes out against eating raw milk and powdered raw meat, there will 10 new franchises of this place in every red state. This will also replace taco Tuesdays with public schools.

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— John Harrold (@abumirchi.com) Jun 9, 2024 at 9:05 PM

Reader Interactions

37Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    Disease has always killed more people than wars. In fact, for much of history, disease was the biggest reason people in war died.

  2. 2.

    MomSense

    I picked a great time to move to a cow town.  They still don’t believe the last novel virus was real.

    Also, too I registered and voted yesterday and the clerk made sure to say Democrat and Democrat ballot enough times that I’m pretty sure the whole town knows.  I also declined to sign a voter ID petition.

  3. 3.

    Anne Laurie

    @Baud: “Look, it’s no worse than a bad cold, really… unless you’re already old or diseased or fat or otherwise worthless… “

    IIRC, very similar things said during the ‘Spanish flu’ outbreak, updating existing tropes about typhus / disentery / smallpox outbreaks going back at least as far as the Napoleonic wars.

  5. 5.

    Baud

    @Anne Laurie:

    I’ve heard that the plague killed so many people that workers at the end of it gained the upper hand.  So pro-disease is really pro-worker.

  6. 6.

    OzarkHillbilly

    I’ve never had anything more than a slightly sore arm from a vaccine shot.

  7. 7.

    MomSense

    @Baud:

    Probably all of 50 people voted in total yesterday.  Also it was the longest ballot I’ve ever seen in my entire voting career.  From the volume of local ballot measures it appears that the town selectmen can’t actually make binding decisions.  There were about 45 questions about local budget and policy that had a statement below showing how the selectmen and, when applicable, the budget committee voted.  I have never seen that before.

  8. 8.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @MomSense: the clerk made sure to say Democrat and Democrat ballot enough times that I’m pretty sure the whole town knows.

    Look on the bright side, now they’ll all leave you alone. I advertise my D status (still have my Hillary sticker on the truck) and they all give me a wide berth like I have the bubonic plague.

  9. 9.

    Geo Wilcox

    @Baud: That lasted for as long as there was a shortage of people. Once that lack of workers was made up, the crappy way lower classes were treated started up again.

  10. 10.

    New Deal democrat

    Biobot reported that, for the week of June 8, “ The national average SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration is now 300 copies per mL.” That is over 2.5x its recent low of 112. All 4 regions show increases, but especially so in the South. Meanwhile the CDC’s latest report last Friday also showed a continued increase to 1.60 vs. itsrecent low of 1.26. The South also had the biggest increase here, while the West still has the highest absolute level. 
     
    The CDC’s latest variant update last Friday showed the KP.x variants making up 55% of all new cases, and an alphabet soup of other new variants making up another 25%. The JN.x variants are rapidly being outcompeted and fading, now only about 15% of all cases. 
     
    There was another new record low of deaths in the last full reporting week of May 11, at 303. Here’s how the initial and final reports of deaths look like through June 1:
    4/27. 184  391
    5/4. 153. 378
    5/11 141. 303
    5/18. 143
    5/25. 108
    6/1. 144
     
    It looks likely that deaths will bottom in the next several weeks of reports, possibly under 250, before they increase again due to the new variants.
     
    JPWeiland’s latest trend model of the new variants still shows only about a doubling in cases. I suspect that is a little low, since the new variants have not yet fully supplanted the JN.x variants.

  11. 11.

    lowtechcyclist

    As soon as Biden comes out against eating raw milk and powdered raw meat, there will 10 new franchises of this place in every red state.

    All I can say is, they’d better not be feeding this stuff to kids.

    Other than that, let God sort ’em out.

  12. 12.

    coozledad

    The government is supposed to subsidize 90 percent of a bad investment? I could see some assistance for small dairies, but let’s be honest: there are virtually none.

     

    This would be a good time for the government to get entirely the fuck out of cholesterol ag.

  15. 15.

    jonas

    @New Deal democrat:  Biobot reported that, for the week of June 8, “ The national average SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration is now 300 copies per mL.” That is over 2.5x its recent low of 112. All 4 regions show increases, but especially so in the South.

    Sounds about right. AAA and TSA said travel numbers over the Memorial Day weekend shattered records and lots of people were gathering for BBQs, sporting events, etc. Only about 20% of adults have received the updated booster.

  18. 18.

    lowtechcyclist

    @coozledad:

    The government is supposed to subsidize 90 percent of a bad investment?

    I’d rather we not have a second pandemic in less than five years.  What’s your plan to get them to give up their sick cows while they’re still producing milk?

  20. 20.

    sab

    My grandmother’s mother died of TB probably caught from cow’s milk. Grandma’s mother was never even allowed to hold her for fear of infecting the baby. Pasteurization wasn’t a thing then.

  22. 22.

    RaflW

    @jonas: We also have basically record-breaking amounts of transatlantic and transpacific flights & seat numbers. People in this “bad economy” are traveling like there’s no tomorrow (which, come to think of it, is sadly not the most irrational frame of mind).

    So the European and SE Asian/Antipodes surges are taking wing back to the US. And a small study did show that flights over 6 hours are excellent vectors for sickening a bunch of people who managed to complete their landed vacation Covid-free.

    (We’re going to Spain in September, so I’m throwing stones at a glass house. I’m just hoping that, as these things tend to go, the wavelet or wave will have broken by then. And we’ll likely mask, and definitely seek to dine al fresco, etc, while there).

  23. 23.

    CaseyL

    As always, Anne Laurie, a huge Thank You for these invaluable updates!

    Got my latest booster a couple weeks ago. I’ve never had any reaction other than a sore arm.

    (The only vaccination I’ve ever had a big reaction to was a Tdap booster 10+ years ago. Knocked me flat for 2 days, felt like I had the flu.)

  24. 24.

    rebelsdad (aka texasboyshaun)

    I’ve had covid three times. Really not looking forward to bird/cow/dumbass flu.

  25. 25.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    @sab: my grandfathers younger sister died of TB at 29. Probably from consuming infected raw milk.

  26. 26.

    Eunicecycle

    @RaflW: just returned from Europe and yes, my husband and I both have Covid. We think we either got it in Switzerland or France. Every place we went was so packed it’s really hard to tell.

  27. 27.

    karen marie

    Ninety percent of its value? I’d tell those motherfuckers to fuck off and shut down their farm.

  28. 28.

    Ohio Mom

    I get why at least some lab-leak believers are so attached to the idea: it gives people agency. If people caused the pandemic, that means we have power over viruses. Aren’t we something?

    Which is the opposite of the truth, which is we are at the mercy of nature and of sub-microscopic, not quite alive particles.

    Our only defenses are our flawed immune systems and some very smart and well-funded medical scientists. And efficient public health systems (inefficient ones don’t count).

    Even if Covid was caused by a lab leak, every single other virus attacking people in large and small ways wasn’t. Might as well come to terms with human vulnerability.

  30. 30.

    karen marie

    @New Deal democrat: These are covid deaths. Given the lack of full/accurate reporting I’d not get excited without seeing excess death numbers.

    My guess is those are way up.

  34. 34.

    lowtechcyclist

    @soapdish: ​
     

    Less cheese and beef.

    Let’s see: if I gave up all dairy and beef products, that would be one less pint of half-and-half per week, 2-3 pounds of beef a month, and a few ounces of cheese per month.

    The dairy industry shudders in fear.

    Seriously, we can’t prevent the next pandemic through consumer choices any more than we can prevent global warming that way. They may help around the edges, but that’s about it. This is what governments are for.

  35. 35.

    lowtechcyclist

    @karen marie:

    These are covid deaths. Given the lack of full/accurate reporting I’d not get excited without seeing excess death numbers.

    My guess is those are way up.

    There’s a tweet up top from Michael Hobbes with a graph that shows U.S. excess deaths just barely above zero, and easily at their lowest point since early 2020.

  36. 36.

    Chet Murthy

    @lowtechcyclist: @coozledad: Paul Krugman quoted some Treasury official who once said that the Federal  Govt is “an insurance company with an army”.  Lots of people make bad decisions or have bad luck: the Federal government spreads the cost of that misfortune across the population.  The tradeoff is supposed to be (or should be) that the government gets to regulate the worst decisions, so that they’re less frequent.

    So the tradeoff for paying off those sick cows and contaminated milk, should be that the dairy operations should cooperate in disease surveillance.

    Ah, well.

  37. 37.

    RaflW

    @Chet Murthy: Republicans have been saying for a long time that “a culture of dependency” breeds contempt. If the farm bill is any indication, alas I have to say they’re more correct than I used to think. Of course, they only applied that to wanting to cut ‘welfare’.

Comments are closed.