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You are here: Home / Medium Cool / Medium Cool – Tony Award Predictions (and Culture Open Thread)

Medium Cool – Tony Award Predictions (and Culture Open Thread)

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Medium Cool is a weekly series related to popular culture, mostly film, TV, and books, with some music and games thrown in.  We hope it’s a welcome break from the anger, hate, and idiocy we see almost daily from the other side in the political sphere.

Arguments welcomed, opinions respected, fools un-suffered.  We’re here every Sunday at 7 pm.

Tonight let’s talk about the Tony Awards.

If this topic interests you, you will already know that the award show starts at 8 pm.  But even if the Tony Awards don’t interest you, maybe some idle speculation in advance will?

I’ll go first.  i think Lin-Manuel Miranda and Hamilton will walk away with most of the awards tonight.  Oh wait, wrong year!  I take it there’s no runaway favorite this year?

Maybe the culture folks at Vulture will have a better take on the awards?

Vulture’s 100%Accurate Tonys Predictions

It’s the Friday before the Tony Awards. Voting closed at noon today. Time to predict some winners. In a very unsettled season, there are a number of close races, including some big ones, which means there could be plenty of surprises during the night itself. And below, we’ve correctly predicted them all. (Post-ceremony fact check not necessary.) We’ll see you all Sunday.

Best Musical
Hell’s Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water for Elephants

The closest race of the night. You could make an argument for each show here, though some productions have edged ahead of others over the course of campaigning: Hell’s Kitchen and The Outsiders are proving themselves as commercial hits; Suffs has become the critical fave; Illinoise is the edgier pick; and Water for Elephants is clinging to that New York Times critics’ pick (also, it has acrobats). Personally, I’d lean Suffs as the most well-made original thing of this crop, but the electric belting and star power of Alicia Keys campaigning hard feels like it’s pushing things in another direction.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Brody Grant — The Outsiders
Jonathan Groff — Merrily We Roll Along
Dorian Harewood — The Notebook
Brian d’Arcy James — Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

My guess is that Lea Michele has already drafted her congratulatory Instagram post for Groff, who’s beloved but hasn’t yet won a Tony and whose essential likability keeps Merrily from curdling. There are possible spoilers in Redmayne (a star keeping Cabaret’s sales up, but way too divisive of a performance) and maybe, more likely, d’Arcy James (also beloved, though Days of Wine and Roses is probably too challenging for Tony tastes).

Will win: Jonathan Groff

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Eden Espinosa — Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon — Hell’s Kitchen
Kelli O’Hara — Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett — The Notebook
Gayle Rankin — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Another close race that has everyone speculating. It boils down to a beloved veteran in O’Hara (who also propelled Days of Wine and Roses into existence) and a dazzling newcomer in Moon. Despite not loving Hell’s Kitchen, my feeling is that being new and in a show that’s running (and selling) pushes Moon farther, but it’s a tough call.

Will win: Maleah Joi Moon

Best Choreography
Camille A. Brown — Hell’s Kitchen
Annie-B Parson — Here Lies Love
Rick and Jeff Kuperman — The Outsiders
Justin Peck — Illinoise
Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll — Water for Elephants

Illinoise is a dance musical. Kind of locks it down.

I cherry picked a few of the awards for inclusion here, click the link above if you want to see all of them.

P.S. I miss Lin-Manuel Miranda.  What’s he up to these days?

Update:  Doesn’t seem like there’s much Buzz about the Tonys, consider this an all-things-culture open thread.

 

Reader Interactions

47Comments

  1. 1.

    Another Scott

    “Illinoise”

    There is no noise in Illinois

    – my mom.

    Winners?  Dunno!

    Where is LMM?  Dunno!

    Looking forward to learning some stuff here tonight.  Don’t let me down, jackals!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  2. 2.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    On this day in 1978, “Grease”, “Jaws 2”, and “Go Tell the Spartans” debuted at summer theaters.

    Going to the movies used to be so much fun.

  3. 3.

    WaterGirl

    @Another Scott: I am from Illinois, but I did the copy & paste without reading the details.

    As for LMM, we really needed him then.  Wasn’t that just days after the horrible massacre at the nightclub?

    *and I still need him now.  Where is he, dammit!  :-)

  5. 5.

    Mousebumples

    No idea. I don’t even know who’s hosting this year. NPH was a great Tony’s host and even had some great musical numbers to open a few of them. This 2013 opener is among my favorites.

  7. 7.

    Pensive

    As to LMM, then internet thinks….

    Lin-Manuel Miranda is working on a stage adaptation of Sol Yurick’s novel, The Warriors, which follows rivaling gangs in 1960s New York City.

  8. 8.

    Shana

    We’re in NYC for the weekend and walked up Broadway past Lincoln Center where the street was all blocked off. We asked a cop what was going in and he said “The Tonys” and we felt so stupid since we came to town specifically for theater.

  10. 10.

    Almost Retired

    @David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:   Grease!!!  I won the affection of the (then) divine Julie Smith over several rivals by offering to drive her to the big city (Des Moines) to see Grease on its opening weekend.  The divine Julie Smith later dumped me – probably  for some guy who offered to take her to Jaws 2.    She is now a bitter MAGA adherent with a string of failed marriages, so clearly dumping me has consequences.

    As to Tony predictions, I got nuthin’

  15. 15.

    WaterGirl

    Update:  Doesn’t seem like there’s much Buzz about the Tonys, so you can consider this an all-things-culture open thread.

  18. 18.

    WaterGirl

    @Steve in the ATL:  Appreciate the translation!

    As for “holy %#^*—am I gay?” all I can do is repeat the catchphrase for everything as I was growing up:

    “That don’t make me no never mind.”

    Was that just a Chicago thing?

  20. 20.

    Steve in the ATL

    @WaterGirl: I wouldn’t know—I’m from Evanston 

    ETA: five posts on a Tony award thread—apparently I am gay!   Better have a chat with the wife….

  21. 21.

    SpaceUnit

    I’m going to watch the Olympic swimming trials instead.  Gretchen Walsh broke the world record last night in the 100m butterfly.  In a semi.

    Tonight is the final.  She might be the first female swimmer to break 55 seconds.  If she does, that stadium is going to go bananas.

  22. 22.

    caphilldcne

    I just returned from a choral world premiere by the Gay Men’s Chorus of Washington called “Portraits” at the Kennedy Center. Not a play, but I really liked it. Some of the songs were a bit morose though. A little more gay joy should sneak through. Anyway I believe this qualifies me to say that I saw Enemy of the People and if Jeremy Strong doesn’t win Best Actor in a drama or something there is no Justice. It was amazing. Also theater in the round is tough and the set design was outstanding. (First Broadway performance I’ve been to since the pandemic). I’ve resolved to go see more.

  23. 23.

    Rachel Bakes

    Got to attend thr Tony’s last year which was a trip. Fun. Glad we went. No real interest in going again.
    Despite listening to the Sirius Radio Broadway station regularly I have no idea. Days of Wine and Roses is comes from a dark place (and already closed I think)? the Notebook and The Outsiders are getting a significant amount of play on air, though I heard something from Illinoise last week. Hoping for Suffs just because. Election year, produced by HRC and Malala. Piss off the Right for existing.

    in years past I watch the performances the day after then obsessively listen to all I can from 1-2 particular shows. Hamilton and Come From Away got me hooked that way.

  24. 24.

    zhena gogolia

    @caphilldcne: I love Jeremy Strong. Even though I’ve never seen him in anything. But I knew him briefly long ago, and he’s great.

    ETA: I so hope he wins.

  26. 26.

    Steve in the ATL

    @SpaceUnit: we are watching the men’s, as the US men’s coach swam and coached the my wife’s high school.  Let’s win some gold!

  29. 29.

    WaterGirl

    Funny, I forgot all about the last awards show and then kicked myself because I had a different topic for Medium Cool that night.  I swore I would remember, but this time there isn’t much interest.  Oh well.

  30. 30.

    caphilldcne

    @zhena gogolia: Whoo hoo!  He totally deserved it. I’ve decided that he’s an avatar for Anthony fauci in the play (Doctor just trying to tell the truth) so I’m excited on two levels. Yay!!

  31. 31.

    gwangung

    Have a couple friends/acquaintances who have skin in the game as junior level to mid level producers (one might be high enough to make to the podium if his show wins). Also, one acquaintance who’s in a nominated show.

    (Suffs, Cabaret and Elephant, if people are curious)

    A little down though, as Ron Simons, a well regarded Broadway actor and producer (former Microsoft employee turned artist, and relentless promoter of diversity on the Great White Way and four time Tony Award winner) just passed away at the too young age of 63.

  32. 32.

    caphilldcne

     

    @WaterGirl: I wonder if part of the issue is how many folks have seen any thing recently. Broadway still coming back. I think my second choice for a show would have been stereophonic. Also I have to confess I’ve never seen wicked and that’s absolutely on my list. I don’t think I can go see the outsiders. I’ll cry when Johnny dies (sorry for the spoiler).

  33. 33.

    caphilldcne

    RIP Ron Simons. Much too young. What an eclectic career. Also I’m partial to Detroiters as a SE Michigan native.

  34. 34.

    Mousebumples

    @WaterGirl: Neil Patrick Harris.

    Probably best known as Doogie Howser, he also played Barney Stinson on How I Met Your Mother.

  35. 35.

    Old School

    I enjoy plays and musicals, but I won’t see any of this year’s group of nominees until touring productions start going around the country in a few years.

  38. 38.

    NotMax

    Since cutting the cord on cable, the Tonys are the primary reason I have an antenna attached to the TV to pick up over the air stuff.

  39. 39.

    WaterGirl

    I have seen several people here recommend Dark Winds, but it appears that there is more than one Dark Winds on various streaming services.

    Which Dark Winds should I be looking for?  Where is it streaming?

  41. 41.

    Old School

    @WaterGirl:

    Which Dark Winds should I be looking for?  Where is it streaming?

    Watch them all!

    Dark Winds was on AMC and appears to be streaming on both Amazon Prime and Apple.

  44. 44.

    Ruckus

    @WaterGirl:

    “That don’t make me no never mind.”

    Was that just a Chicago thing?

    No, it is/was not. I’ve heard that spoken by people from many parts of this county when I was in the Navy. Have said it my own self on occasion.

  45. 45.

    Rachel Bakes

    @caphilldcne: my husband is on the board of the United Palace, last year’s venue. We learned that the venue has 2 extra gift tickets on Saturday at 7 and had 18 hours to swing black tie and childcare before heading to Washington Heights. (Live in sw CT so not a challenge to get there)

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