Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Wait, what?

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

The National Guard is not Batman.

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Not rolling over. fuck you, make me.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

“A king is only a king if we bow down.” – Rev. William Barber

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

We do not need to pander to people who do not like what we stand for.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

You are here: Home / Justice / LGBTQ Rights / LGBTQ Rights Are Human Rights / Sunday Morning Open Thread: The Final Frontier

Sunday Morning Open Thread: The Final Frontier

by | 156 Comments

This post is in: , ,

I made this Pride flag using only NASA images and our team thought it would be cool to share on social (I work on the NASA heliophysics communications team), but it's getting all sorts of hate on the bird app and Fbook. Thought y'all might be more appreciative of it here. ☺️🏳️‍🌈💖

[image or embed]

— Rachel Lense is Professionally Curious (@rachellense.bsky.social) Jun 13, 2024 at 10:19 PM

(H/t Narya)

 

Per The Register (think I owe someone a hat tip for this link), “Voyager 1 makes stellar comeback to science operations”:

NASA’s Voyager 1 spacecraft is back in action and conducting normal science operations for the first time since the veteran probe began spouting gibberish at the end of 2023.

All four of the spacecraft’s remaining operational instruments are now returning usable data to Earth, according to NASA.

Some additional work is needed to tidy up the effects of the issue. Engineers need to resynchronize the timekeeping software of Voyager 1’s three onboard computers to ensure that commands are executed at the correct times. Maintenance will also be performed on the digital tape recorder, which records some data from the plasma instrument for a six-monthly downlink to Earth.

As the 50th anniversary of Voyager 1’s launch rapidly approaches, and with the probe now 15 billion miles (24 billion kilometers) from Earth, restoring functionality is quite an engineering feat…

The rescue was made all the more impressive by the fact that it takes 22.5 hours for a command to reach Voyager 1 and another 22.5 hours for a response to be received on Earth.

How much longer the Voyagers can continue to function is open to conjecture. The power supplies are gradually degrading, and engineers have been turning off non-essential systems to eke out dwindling resources for as long as possible.

Due the engineers’ efforts, there is a very good chance that one or both Voyagers will continue to be operational by the time the 50th anniversary of the mission’s launch rolls around in 2027.

A fitting tribute to those who designed the spacecraft, and the mission’s first project scientist, Ed Stone, who died recently at the age of 88. ®


But! Half-full glass continues to empty, per Joel Achenbach at the Washington Post:

… What no one can change, though, is the mortality of a spacecraft with a limited power supply. Voyager 1 is running on fumes, or, more precisely, on the dwindling power from the radioactive decay of plutonium.

The Voyagers have traveled so far from the sun they can’t rely on solar power and instead use a radioisotope thermoelectric generator. But an RTG doesn’t last forever. Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 will eventually go silent as they continue to cruise the galaxy. NASA scientists and engineers are hoping Voyager 1 can keep sending data until at least Sept. 5, 2027, the 50th anniversary of its launch.

“At some point, we’ll have to start turning off the science instruments one by one,” Spilker said. “Once we’re out of power, then we can no longer keep the spacecraft pointed at the Earth. And so [the Voyagers] will then continue on as what I like to think of as our silent ambassadors.”

In a sense, this is all a bonus because the primary mission for the two Voyagers was the exploration of the outer planets. Both visited Jupiter and Saturn, and Voyager 2 went on to Uranus and Neptune in what was known as the “Grand Tour” of the outer solar system, enabled by a rare orbital arrangement of the planets. The Voyagers delivered spectacular close-up images of the outer planets, and the mission ranks among NASA’s greatest achievements…

Reader Interactions

156Comments

  1. 1.

    Basilisc

    And keep in mind that Voyager is doing all of this with technology that was cutting-edge – in 1977. 

  5. 5.

    narya

    Glad you liked the pride flag! I continue to be amazed by the ingenuity of my fellow beings on this third rock from the sun (waving at YOU, elephants who name each other) and by the persistence of the Voyagers.

  6. 6.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    @narya: During the pandemic, I was also often struck by how ingenious and creative people can be. I think of that woman making tiktoks in which she mimed to Trump’s speeches. Or Room Rater grading the backgrounds in people’s zooms

  7. 7.

    gene108

    From the OP AP story.

    The emerging global power aims to put a person on the moon before 2030, which would make it the second nation after the United States to do so.

    I mean good for them, but I don’t feel threatened when China sends their manned moon mission.

    The Apollo missions were 50+ years ago.

    A Chinese spacecraft landed on the far side of the moon Sunday to collect soil and rock samples that could provide insights into differences between the less-explored region and the better-known near side.

    The landing module touched down at 6:23 a.m. Beijing time in a huge crater known as the South Pole-Aitken Basin, the China National Space Administration said.

    …It is the second designed to bring back samples, following the Chang’e 5, which did so from the near side in 2020.

    SNIP

    The South Pole-Aitken Basin, an impact crater created more than 4 billion years ago, is 13 kilometers (8 miles) deep and has a diameter of 2,500 kilometers (1,500 miles), according to a report by China’s Xinhua News Agency.

    It is the oldest and largest of such craters on the moon, so may provide the earliest information about it, Xinhua said, adding that the huge impact may have ejected materials from deep below the surface.

    I find this more impressive.

  14. 14.

    Betty

    That last image reminds me that my pea brain will never fully grasp the enormity of the universe.

  16. 16.

    PAM Dirac

    A very nice documentary on late mission (~2019-2021) Voyager is It’s Quieter in the Twilight. Available on Amazon Prime at least. After all the attention of the Grand Tour ended after the Neptune flyby and a brief uptick when the spacecrafts passed the heliopause, the few remaining staff continue to plug away in relative obscurity, hoping to keep things working til the 50th anniversary in 2027.

  17. 17.

    RevRick

    Because of course a Pride flag made of NASA images would generate all sorts of hate. Fascism is based in, among other things noted by Umberto Eco, a contempt for all things born of the Enlightenment, and the hypermasculine hero/death cult, which is contempt for all things feminine (or queer). The only science fascism is interested in is that in service of military uses.
    And of course it’s soooo Christian to hate on teh gays. Like Jesus did.

  18. 18.

    Spanky

    @Betty:

    That last image reminds me that my pea brain will never fully grasp the enormity of the universe.

    It wasn’t  designed to. A fair part of studying astronomy – all physics,  actually – is training students to ignore what their brains are telling them is common sense. Everything is weird at both extreme ends of the distance scale.

  19. 19.

    narya

    @OzarkHillbilly: I lived in Philadelphia when he played there, and one year a basketball-enthusiast friend and I got a 16-game ticket plan, so I got to see him play. The Round Mound of Rebound . . .

  21. 21.

    narya

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: I’ve been rewatching Schitt’s Creek, and I have the same reaction about creativity–and kindness, for that matter. One of the things I truly love about that show is the thread of kindness that runs through it, and that every character is allowed to grow and change.

  22. 22.

    artem1s

    Engineers need to resynchronize the timekeeping software of Voyager 1’s three onboard computers

    Y2K fail?

  26. 26.

    PAM Dirac

    @Spanky:

    Everything is weird at both extreme ends of the distance scale.

    True, but “common sense” doesn’t even work too well in more normal scales. More years ago than I care to admit, when I was in graduate school I participated in a study where you were asked to predict the outcome of some tasks. All the tasks were pretty simple examples of Newton’s laws; things like releasing two objects of different mass at the same time and seeing which one hits the ground first. Despite the subjects being mostly graduate students from a fairly big name research institution, the predictions were about 70% wrong. Ever since, I’ve translated “common sense” or “intuitive” as “wrong 70% of the time”. I also get a chuckle when some says quantum mechanics isn’t intuitive. As if Newton’s laws are any more intuitive.

  29. 29.

    narya

    @OzarkHillbilly: I wish I could remember which season–I think it must have been 85-86, which was a ridiculously loaded team. He was definitely a force of nature, but that team also included Moses Malone, Sedale Threatt, and, according to the intertubes, Dr. J, though I have to admit I couldn’t have come up with that list w/o help.

  30. 30.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Baud:

    I suppose Carter could have pulled the plug on Voyager if he’d wanted to badly enough, but given that the Voyager probes were launched just seven months after his inauguration, he had little to do with having made them happen.

  31. 31.

    Mousebumples

    Good morning – and happy father’s day to the dad’s among us.

    We’ve got a rainy day here. Some afternoon plans with my in laws, but hoping to do some postcarding during the kiddo quiet time.

    Postcards to Voters has addresses for Trisha Calvarese in CO (04? Buck’s prior district) for that special election later this month.

  35. 35.

    geg6

    @Josie:

    Plus, he’s funny as hell.  Yes, he sometimes says stupid shit, but I never sense any malice in him.  He seems like someone I’d love to sit at a bar and have drinks with.

  37. 37.

    Tony Jay

    @RevRick:

      the hypermasculine hero/death cult, which is contempt for all things feminine (or queer)

    All things openly and unashamedly feminine (or queer), surely. The homo-erotic heat coming off what I suppose you could call the ‘romantic’ fascist ethos could roast bear meat at a hundred yards.

    My friend has a theory that The British Right has a large slice of support from upper class homosexuals who came through the private school/Establishment training system and want their sexual partners scared to out them due to the threat of punitive legal sanctions or the fear of in-group social ostracism. They get off on their liaisons being ‘dirty’, and don’t want that feeling to go away.

  38. 38.

    Baud

    @RevRick:

    Because of course a Pride flag made of NASA images would generate all sorts of hate.

     
    Also designed to create a deterrent effect. Social media makes it so easy to do too.

  42. 42.

    geg6

    @Tony Jay:

    Similar to my theory about Republicans and evangelicals, but not due to private school shenanigans.  For them, it’s Young Republican events and church camps.

  44. 44.

    Eyeroller

    @PAM Dirac: “Common sense” basically gives you Aristotelian physics and somewhat later medieval notions about “impulse.”  It’s because our observations are all in a complex environment with many sources of friction.  (Air resistance is a big one, along with sliding friction, etc etc).  Newton’s laws apply, of course, but they’re hard to visualize.  When I taught undergrad labs we had air-hockey tables for conservation-of-momentum type labs.

  45. 45.

    TBone

    @RevRick: I have a Christmas dad joke meme of Rudolf with his nose aglow asking the patient from the Operation! game with his nose aglow “Dad?” My brother gets all my dad jokes. He said when he was dancing, his son asked him to stop “getting jiggly with it.”  😆 My nephew is a treat.

  51. 51.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    Maintenance will also be performed on the digital tape recorder, which records some data from the plasma instrument for a six-monthly downlink to Earth.

    Don’t forget, NASA engineers: If you’re doing maintenance on a remote site away from your home location, you can charge for travel time.

    Also if you are using your own vehicle to get to Voyager, you can charge for fuel and a standard government mileage rate.

  52. 52.

    H.E.Wolf

    @Mousebumples: Postcards to Voters has addresses for Trisha Calvarese in CO (04? Buck’s prior district) for that special election later this month.

     Thank you for the heads-up! I just picked up 5 addresses.
    Note to writers for this special election: Due date for these final postcards will be Tuesday, June 18, to allow 1 week for arrival before the June 25 special-election day.

    As with most special elections, a small increase in Democratic turnout may have a big impact. We could add another Democrat to Congress next week, if we help Calvarese win.

    To sign up with Postcards To Voters: email [email protected]

  53. 53.

    Geminid

    @Tony Jay: Last year I happened to run across a copy of Anthony Summers’s book about the Profumo Affair, Honeytrap: the Secret World of Stephen Ward (1987). It recounts the scandal that briefly rocked British politics in 1963, and was the source for the movie Scandal.

    Evidently, the Land of Hope and Glory is long practiced at keeping its less glorious features out of the public’s eye. Summers opens the book with a quote from a George V. Higgins:

       The System’s just a story we tell to the people that aren’t running it, and they’re supposed to mind their business and believe it…

    Summers co-authored the book with Stephen Dorril.

  55. 55.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @OzarkHillbilly: I love big goofy dogs. They tend to be super friendly, I think because they know they’re big and have no reason to be afraid of anybody.

    Not sure I’d actually want to deal with the food and poop requirements though. I’m happy with our little 40 pounder, and just visiting with the big guys at the park.

  56. 56.

    Tony Jay

    @Baud:

    Adding ‘dirty’ to most anything makes it hot. Just ask Christina Aguilera or anyone called Sanchez.

    @geg6:

    It’s definitely a theory with merit. See – Rome, Church of. No better way of straddling that line between ‘being who you are’ while ‘playing the game according to the rules’, but only if you’re in a conservative elite that follows the Wilhoit Rule.

  58. 58.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @OzarkHillbilly: The only Celtics game I ever attended was against the Sixers.  Barkley played well, but got a bad call and made a fuss about it.  When then the crowd started booing him, he scratched an itch on his face with his middle finger.  I always wondered if they mentioned it on the radio/tv broadcast.

    Barkley is a great analyst and hilarious/fun, just don’t get him talking about politics.  He tends to be a respectability Pull-Yer-Pants-Up-Black-People and even borderline BlueLivesMatter guy.  I still love him though.  And he and Kenny Smith (and Ernie) have truly changed basketball (and sports in general) analysis on tv.  Their brand of playful teasing and jokes is now much more common in sports broadcasts.  They brought the Black barbershop vibe of fun to NBA/sports and imo, forever changed sports shows for the better.

  59. 59.

    Suzanne

    @RevRick:

    the hypermasculine hero/death cult, which is contempt for all things feminine (or queer) 

    This is one of the most interesting forms of misogyny, IMHO, because I see it everywhere, and so many people seem oblivious to it. It’s so common for men to crap on the diversionary interests of women. Things that are women-coded are judged as being of lesser quality or lesser relevance or as a niche interest. (Barbie movie, Taylor Swift and pop music in general, romantic movies, etc.) Meanwhile, things that are more coded as for men (sports fandom, movies and books about wars, rock and hip-hop, for some examples) are seen as either more universal or more serious. So many women have internalized this framing, too. It’s an insidious form of misogyny.

  60. 60.

    Anoniminous

    Of course AP can’t resist their standard jingoistic YELLOW PERIL!!! framing.

    Chinese spacecraft lands on moon’s far side to collect rocks in growing space rivalry with US

  61. 61.

    Tony Jay

    @Geminid:

    Absolutely. And as everything since 2015 has hammered home, the only thing that has changed is the depths the Establishment are willing to plumb in order to maintain their System.

    See Germany: 1928 -34 for how that tends to play out.

  63. 63.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @RevRick: Don’t forget Bell Curve, Cass Report science that they use to “prove” Black People are inferior and stoke Trans Panics etc.

    Also anything that suggests Global Warming isn’t happening, or if it is, then this is all totally normal and has nothing to do with human actions.

  64. 64.

    MomSense

    Anyone else feeling like they are on the ledge about this election?

    I’ve seen some former students (early 30s) with fucking Jill Stein videos on their Instagram stories.  One of them she is talking about day one as president and I just want to scream their is no Jill Stein presidency.  You will only guarantee a trump presidency and the end of our democracy.

  67. 67.

    Baud

    @MomSense:

    No. But I don’t watch much media or social media.

    Are your former students white? If so, what do you expect? They face more competitive for jobs from non-whites than prior generations. Of course they’ll seize on ways to help Trump get elected.

  69. 69.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Suzanne: I’m convinced that this is the main reason Oppenheimer won so many Oscars while Barbie got almost completely snubbed.  People treated the former like it was so profound and IMPORTANT and the latter as if it was frivolous.  The average Academy voter is a 60-something, white male.  The kind who probably thinks Taylor Swift (or Beyonce) aren’t real music and nobody has done anything musically great since the Beatles/Stones.

  70. 70.

    MomSense

    @Baud:

    They are all former Bernistas who are now single issue Palestine voters.  They are all employed.  I’m going to lose my mind.

  71. 71.

    Baud

    @MomSense:

    They don’t have to be unemployed to feel the pressure.  They have many years of work ahead of them.

    ETA: MAGA farmers surrounded by white people are still terrified of BLM.

  73. 73.

    MomSense

    @Baud:

    The social media emphasis on Palestine for young people is creating a world where this is the only issue, Biden is responsible, the threat of fascism is bullshit because Biden’s handling of Israel Palestine is already fascist etc.  I’ve tried to reason with them and it is just absolutely useless.

    They get so much validation from being part of this online movement and it’s taken over everything else for them.

  74. 74.

    Baud

    @MomSense:

    I stand by my comment.  Although Palestine is more serious than most issues, there’s always going to be an issue for people looking for an issue.

    ETA: the only real issue in America is status over others.

    ETA 2: CRT can explain a lot if you let it.

  76. 76.

    Scout211

    Since this is an Open Thread, The Moderate Voice has a nice response to Nicholas Kristof’s  NYT Opinion piece, What Have we Liberals Done to the West Coast?

    He compares “unsheltered” homelessness in California and Oregon (151,776 sq. mi.) with Vermont, New York and Maine (94,607 sq. mi) and the west coast comes up short. What’s the average (high/low F) January temperatures in Maine? 12.5º to 30.9º, 20″ snow. Western Oregon? 34º to 46°, 12″ rain.

    What are the rates of total homelessness as well as unsheltered homelessness in these five states? Keep the winters in mind.

    • Maine (1,396,000, population 2023): 0.31% | 0.02%
    • California (39,128,000) : 0.46% | 0.32%
    • Oregon: 0.48% (4,233,000) | 0.31%
    • Vermont (647,494): 0.51% | 0.02%
    • New York (19,571,000): 0.53% | 0.03%

     

    Hmmm, actual statistics?

    At the very end, Kristof acknowledges change is happening: “California and Oregon have taken steps to boost housing supply.”

    Too little, too late.

    Sunday’s screed looks like Kristoff is still pissed off that he was not allowed to run for governor in 2022. And the NYT let him spew.

    Yep.

  77. 77.

    Tony Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    Exactly. Damn those stalwarts of the Leopard Face Eating ideology and their enigmatic intentions, but at least we died in humiliating agony with a lower tax rate!

  78. 78.

    Villago Delenda Est

    NASA’s Voyager 1 spacecraft is back in action and conducting normal science operations for the first time since the veteran probe began spouting gibberish at the end of 2023.

    So, they fixed TCFFG problem?

  79. 79.

    Baud

    @Scout211:

    It’s akin to the crime panic.  Take a legitimate issue and exaggerate it so you can beat liberals over the head with it.

  81. 81.

    geg6

    @MomSense:

    Not seeing that among my former students.  All mine are anti-MAGA and, if not precisely gigantic fans of Biden (but they love MVP) , voting Dem in November. If they talk politics at all.

  82. 82.

    Nukular Biskits

    @Baud:

    It’s akin to the crime panic. Take a legitimate issue and exaggerate it so you can beat liberals over the head with it.

    Don’t forget they’re getting a pass from our supposedly “librul media” in doing this.

    One of my pet peeves is (at a local/state level here in MS, at least) media outlets all but refuse to call out/question conservative pols on claims like “rising crime rates”, etc.

  83. 83.

    NotMax

    @Baud

    Surprised that among his other argle-bargee Dolt 45’s stump speeches don’t include a promise to make Pluto a planet again, “as the Founding Fathers agreed.”
    //

  84. 84.

    NotMax

    @MomSense

    Take a couple of deep breaths and unplug from political media for a short break.. The path is winding; keep the eyes on the prize.

  85. 85.

    Anoniminous

    @MomSense:

    Calm down.  2020 election —

    State      Green Party Vote      Biden Won (Loss)
    Az                   1,557                  10,457
    Ga                   1,103                ~12,000
    Mi                  13,718               154,178
    NC                 12,195              (74,483)
    Pa                        Not on Ballot
    Wi                   1,089                 20,682

    In no case did the Green Party make one iota of difference

  89. 89.

    Nukular Biskits

    Note to self:  Don’t engage in excessive libations the night before attempting to do yardwork with temp of 85° + relative humidity of 78%.

    Ugh. I think I’ll take the day off.

  91. 91.

    jimmiraybob

    @Nukular Biskits: “…our supposedly “librul media”…”

    When it’s all about the $$$ (greatest profit) they will take a path that makes the $$$ (greatest profit).

    I don’t think anyone would assume that if Felonious T-Rump becomes MAGA Ruler of America, anointed by God, the newsrooms will advocate for liberal democracy over a Trump republic.

    Just watched a piece on CNN where Donie O’Sullivan interviews MAGA trumpinistas and, not surprisingly, “America is not a Democracy” is trending.  If Trump takes office, Donie will need to become a supplicant to the Trump/MAGA State or get a new job … profession.

  93. 93.

    Ruckus

    @Suzanne:

    In summer 1964 I machined the mold cavities that formed Barbie’s torso for Mattel at my dad’s shop. I remember it well. This was a second set of molds, the first were getting worn out by then. Interesting for me, as a young teen boy to be doing that. It is interesting to realize how old Barbie actually is. Also I once met one of the founders of Mattel and his wife, who was the woman that Barbie was supposedly based upon.

  94. 94.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    @Suzanne: You absolutely see this misogynistic coding in how book genres are regarded. Tom Clancy books may not be seen as fine literature, but you can read them in public. Romance novels? Not so much.

  96. 96.

    Kay

    I would submit you are focusing on the wrong voters. Biden leads among the most engaged voters.

    The theory of the case for Trump winning, and this is backed up by months of data, is that when Trump is on the ballot less engaged voters come out – that’s why we can’t rely on Dems winning specials- specials are the most engaged voters. We win them.

    Stop focusing on the extreme Left side of the Democratic Party. That’s not your problem. Your problem is, as always, the moronic swing voters who only vote in Presidential elections and have opinions and ideological stances that are all over the map and contradictory. If they come out for Trump we probably lose and if they don’t we probably win. Media and Republicans are betting (and hoping) they will and Democrats are betting they won’t. That’s the whole election.

  97. 97.

    Nukular Biskits

    @jimmiraybob:

    As I have mentioned in previous rants on this subject, the local mullet wrapper, The Sun Herald, is about worthless.

    For example, it has not made a single mention that the US Rep for this area, Mike Ezell, voted to restore a racist Confederate monument back to Arlington National Cemetery.

    Instead, on their social media feed, they inform readers about lottery winners in Utah.

    FFS.

  101. 101.

    Bill Arnold

    @Anoniminous:
    One curious aspect of the Chinese missions (mars, moon) is that they are low-nationalism. Good to see.
    Contrast with three recent lunar lander crashes, which were all nationalism-fests. (Netanyahu and Modi were in the respective control rooms, and Russsia 2023, well, fuck Russia in 2023.)
    – Israel’s Beresheet, crashed 11 Apr 2019
    – India’s Chandrayaan 2 Vikram lander, crashed 6 September 2019
    – Russia’s Luna 25, crashed 19 August 2023

    For Chandrayaan-3, Modi was out-of-country. :-)

  102. 102.

    Eyeroller

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: ​Men do art. Women do crafts. Men’s hobbies like, say, model railroading (though I guess that’s not so popular anymore) are respected. Women just knit. Men are chefs. Women cook.

  104. 104.

    Anoniminous

    @Kay: ​
     
    This election will turn on the White Women vote. Overall Biden won women by 13% but lost white women 43 percent to Trump’s 55 percent Trump. There’s just no predicting how they will vote in 2024. Dobbs & etc. will make a difference. We have no reliable data to even guess at how much of a difference, and where, it will make.

  105. 105.

    Kay

    I mean, you CAN focus on the extreme Left side of the Democratic Party – popular on this site and fine with me, but they aren’t important enough to swing an election and I’m not interested it talking about it because the level of intensity of the focus doesn’t make sense to me in terms of the threat.

    I mean, you really think Biden is polling behind Trump in Georgia and Arizona because the Left, people who don’t even identify as Democrats, aren’t supporting either of them? They have a narrow path to influence – they could conceivably swing the race in MI and to a lesser extent WI but they’re not hurting Biden;s numbers in GA and AZ – that doesn’t make sense. They’re simply not the reason for the poor polling.

  106. 106.

    Kristine

    @Betty: Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve been listening to John Green’s Crash Course podcast series in which he interviews Dr. Katie Mack, the author of The End of Everything (Astrophysically Speaking). They’re discussing the origins and evolution of the universe, and the points get driven home with a mallet that 1) the knowledge of the universe’s origins that astrophysicists and cosmologists have been able to glean to this point is utterly jaw-dropping and 2) we are indeed a speck of dust on a speck of dust.

    Both the book and the podcast—highly recommended.

  107. 107.

    Nukular Biskits

    @gene108:

    Sometimes I’ll spend hours rummaging through NASA’s site, looking at the images and reading the statuses of the various missions.

    It’s almost as good a use of the internet as are cat videos. 🤣

  108. 108.

    Kay

    @Anoniminous:

    There is no “white women” vote any more than there is a “white man vote”. That’s the wrong way to think about it.

    What predicts an anti choice vote is not gender – it’s negative attitudes towards women. That’s the commonality among anti choice voters. I think what you’re seeing is not some “gender solidarity” but instead the group of people who rank choice highly as an issue growing and most importantly coming out. 

  110. 110.

    Kay

    @Anoniminous:

    They’re seeing the same thing in Latino voters. Latino voters who are engaged and participate are + Biden. Latino voters who only engage sporadically are + Trump. It’s not ideological. It wasn’t that Latinos were moving Right – instead it was that they were polling two groups of voters – engaged and less engaged. When they add less engaged Trump’s share goes up.

  111. 111.

    TBone

    The 2024 Silent Majority theory:

    So, a theory for you: Maybe, just maybe, there is an army of Americans out there who may not call themselves liberal or progressive but who are anywhere from sort of turned off to massively repulsed by MAGA. And while Trump and Fox News and Steve Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Greene and all the rest of them spend their days fulminating about America dying and hyping the authoritarian tsunami coming—talk that the mainstream media picks up and that dominates our discourse—there are in fact millions of Americans sitting quietly at home who detest these histrionic harbingers of hatemongering (a Safire-esque turn of phrase for you, since I mentioned Agnew).

    They are out there. And they, I submit, are your new Silent Majority.

    They’re not all liberal. But they definitely support abortion rights. They’re not rushing to join trans rights groups. But they want people to be treated with empathy and tolerance. They’re not reading gender-bending young adult fiction. But they recoil against censorship. They’re not socialists. But they want the government to do more for working- and middle-class people. They’re not Earth Firsters. But they believe climate change is real. They may still tell pollsters they’re wary of “big government.” But new interstates and bridges, and airport expansions, and new light-rail tracks, and expanded broadband access? They’re great with all that.

    newrepublic.com/post/182745/new-silent-majority-not-conservative

    These people exist in my neighborhood alongside the Rumpers.  Quiet but determined.  Also, we outnumber the Rumpers (who for the first time since forever have NOT put out Dotard campaign signs).

    Just an offer of positivity.

  112. 112.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @Nukular Biskits:

    Sometimes I’ll spend hours rummaging through NASA’s site, looking at the images and reading the statuses of the various missions.

    It’s a great time suck and makes one appreciate the long-term commitment scientists/staff there have on projects.

  113. 113.

    Kay

    @Anoniminous:

    Whatever. No one in polling or political science or the Democratic Party thinks white women vote as a group – because they don’t, obviously, looking at the number you gave me, but if you want to follow this exclusively Balloon Juice theory be my guest. But I’m not obligated to go along with it. It’s nonsense.

    Latinos don’t vote on solidarity with other Latinos either, although they are, of course, a demographic group. How do I know this? Because half of them vote for Republicans. Being a demographic doesn’t = voting as a bloc. It never has. It doesn’t for white men either – hence the 40% share for Democrats.

  114. 114.

    Anoniminous

    Statistical Analysis Fundamental:  to have a high confidence factor (95%+) any member of the population must have an equal probability of being randomly selected.  71.7% of U.S. adults (183 million) now relying solely on wireless phones meaning they are invisible to polling.

    Take Away:  STOP OBSESSING OVER THE FUCKING POLLS.  THEY ARE MATHEMATICALLY MEANINGLESS.

  115. 115.

    Kay

    I don’t think there’s any real way to manage sporadic voters. In my experience canvassing they’re dumb as fucking rocks and can be swayed by the most ridiculous things, so we just hope they swing our way when the time comes, or actually, don’t come out. This is an election where Democrats probably don’t want high turnout.

  116. 116.

    Josie

    @Kay:

     I agree with you that women and Latinos don’t vote as a block, but I wish you would agree that Balloon Juice commenters are equally not a block. You tar everyone on here with the beliefs of some commenters. We don’t all agree and that is healthy. Your comments much of the time feel like an attack to me, and I find it insulting.

  118. 118.

    Tony Jay

    @Kay:

    There are just some people who hate and despise their personal version of ‘Teh Left’ with much more animus than they’ll ever feel deep down for The Right. It’s just who they are and how they feel and if you have a problem with that, well, you must love Trump and want Republicans elected as a prelude to Red Utopia and there is no other possible alternative!

    People are all cranks in their own cranky way. As long as they are willing to vote for left wing Democrats when it comes to election day they can stay in the Party and won’t have their houses egged. Big Tent! 👍

  120. 120.

    TBone

    Anecdotally from a white lady in a mostly white, but slowly integrating, rural suburb, even the dumb as rocks neighbors who I make fun of are voting for President Biden.  One lady is particularly stupid but recently told me how much she detests MAGA in a conversation we had that was not at all political.  She just blurted it out from nowhere! 😍 Rump is literally bleeding support IMO.

  121. 121.

    Kay

    I’m actually going with the conventional polling analysis because it makes the most sense to me – so Biden’s voters are more reliable and Trump’s voters are less reliable. My theory of the case is Biden wins because reliable voters come out so Biden gets more actual votes out of his 48 share than Trump does of his 50.

    But the Trump/media theory of the case is also a okay theory – not outlandish or “wrong”  it says that Trump voters only come out for Trump so will do so. Their theory is actually more risky than ours. IMO, less likely. So I still give Biden an edge, although not a big one.

  122. 122.

    smith

    @Anoniminous: Wireless phones get called by pollsters. The determining factor is even more invisible — who picks up on unknown numbers? This is a behavioral characteristic that probably doesn’t neatly line up with any known demographic. It could be that older people are more likely to pick up, since they were socialized at a time when you felt an obligation to answer your phone, but without actual data, I’m not sure I’d bet on that. Most of the old people I know screen their calls like everyone else.

  123. 123.

    Kay

    @Tony Jay:

    God, it’s been 4 years we’ve been beating this The Left Loses Us Elections theme. Time to move on. Even if it was accurate – it’s not- but even if it was. The pro Palestinian Left are like 19 year olds. They were 12 in 2016.

  124. 124.

    gene108

    @Anoniminous:

    Take Away: STOP OBSESSING OVER THE FUCKING POLLS. THEY ARE MATHEMATICALLY MEANINGLESS.

    They can indicate trends. They may not be accurate within the margin of error, but they can show a basic baseline of where people are right now.

    All polls show is this will be a tight election (thanks EC), and I think that’s right.

    Can Biden win the EC? Yes. Trump can also win the EC.

    It really comes down to whose voters show up in November, which is hard to predict.

  125. 125.

    Kay

    @Josie:

    I do think it’s a bit of an echo chamber, frankly. I’m sorry that insults you personally – I didn’t intend that.

    Not collapsing into doom and gloom is fine but I’m not going along with creating new theories to explain away bad polling or “then the magic happens and…we win!”  I think there’s probably some middle ground there. I think I’m going with the conventional wisdom, which includes polling.

    Looking at polling, arguably there’s been a bigger movement of centrist Democrats against Biden than there has been of Leftists. And there are more of them. He’s lost some centrists on the border issues and also student loan forgiveness and inflation. I think they’re still gettable though. They’ll be afraid of Trump so maybe swing Biden for safety.

  126. 126.

    Timurid

    @TBone: The Silent Majority is real, but its distribution on the Electoral College map is straight dogwater.

    People talk about Trump as some kind of dark genius, but an underrated thing about him is that his voters could not have been more efficiently distributed on the EC map by a computer…

  127. 127.

    Kay

    @gene108:

    Agreed. I think white women voting on abortion might swing a point or two in the crucial states but it isn’t going to be determinative. IMO. As usual, we’re stuck with cobbling together a coalition and hoping it holds. No “one neat Dobbs trick” is going to save us.

  128. 128.

    TBone

    @Timurid: I’m as realistic about this as I can be.  I’m not here pronouncing victory.  I’m trying to offer bits of positivity and, yes, even hope! to the conversation.

  129. 129.

    Kay

    @gene108:

    Some things concern me. I think Hochul’s retreat on congestion pricing is her reacting to bad polling in NY and panicking. I think the House Dems planning on how to stop Trump should he win is them reacting to bad polling and hedging bets. That concerns me. But as I said I still think Biden will win. I still think he has a slight edge.

  130. 130.

    Tony Jay

    @Kay:

    And the Pro Palestinian Left Are Right, morally, ethically and antifuckingfascistically. It’s not their fault that calling out the Israeli Right for going fascist is a couple or five years behind calling out the American Right for doing the same thing.

    It’ll work out. 

  131. 131.

    Baud

    I’m less concerned now that it looks like UK is moving toward a Liberal utopia. I wouldn’t even have to learn a new language (mostly).

  132. 132.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Bill Arnold: ​
     

    Israel’s Beresheet, crashed 11 Apr 2019

    IIRC, ‘Beresheet’ is the opening word of the book of Genesis, and means ‘in the beginning.’ A quick end to that beginning.

  133. 133.

    Kay

    And I think Biden’s border enforcement changes and refusal to recognize the pro Palestinian protestors issue are a recognition that he’s bleeding a little on the centrist/Right side of the Dem Party too. It’s okay with me. The Dem incumbent usually moves Right rather then Left – that’s as conventional as all get out. He’s trying to reach the less engaged, but Right leaning, voters who are drifting toward Trump.

  134. 134.

    Kay

    And I think Biden’s border enforcement changes and refusal to recognize the pro Palestinian protestors issue are a recognition that he’s bleeding a little on the centrist/Right side of the Dem Party too. It’s okay with me. The Dem incumbent usually moves Right rather then Left – that’s as conventional as all get out. He’s trying to reach the less engaged, but Right leaning, voters who are drifting toward Trump.

  135. 135.

    Eyeroller

    @Kay: I’m not a resident of NY (city or state) but from what I’ve read about Hochul, it wouldn’t necessarily require a panic reaction like that at all.  Just business as usual for NY state Dems.

  136. 136.

    Kay

    Sorry for the double post. I mostly agree with conventional pollsters analysis of the race. Could it be really weird? Yeah, sure. But it probably won’t be.

    It’ll be w/in the margin of error of the polling average like it always is.

  139. 139.

    Another Scott

    ICYMI, the rules for the June 27 (11 days hence) debate are out. Reuters.com:

    WASHINGTON, June 15 (Reuters) – The first U.S. presidential debate between incumbent Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump on June 27 will include two commercial breaks, no props and muted microphones except when recognized to speak, CNN said Saturday.

    In May, the candidates agreed to face off in two debates including one this month that will be moderated by CNN anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash in Atlanta, while the other on Sept. 10 will be hosted by ABC (DIS.N)

    CNN said Saturday both candidates will appear at a uniform podium during the 90-minute debate, podium positions will be determined by a coin flip and candidates will be given a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water but cannot use props.

    […]

    During the two commercial breaks, campaign staff may not interact with their candidate, and there will be no studio audience.

    CNN said candidates eligible to participate must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win and receive at least 15% in four separate national polls.
    CNN said it is “not impossible” Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent, could qualify, saying he has received at least 15% in three qualifying polls to date and has qualified for the ballot in six states, making him eligible for 89 electoral college votes.

    […]

    Biden has three preferred debate topics, according to a campaign memo viewed by Reuters: abortion rights, the state of democracy and the economy.

    […]

    I don’t expect RFK Jr to be on the stage.

    If it happens, and TCFFG doesn’t decide to do a rally instead, I ass-u-me Biden will do well. And I ass-u-me Biden’s comms team will make sure that his spin on the results gets the biggest audience possible (which is also a big part of the battle).

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  140. 140.

    Tony Jay

    @smith:

    Are you white and can you subsist entirely on termite larva? If so, come on in! We’ve got no facilities or attractions but it’s mostly flat and the neighbours are quiet because they don’t want to draw our attention.

  142. 142.

    Steeplejack

    @narya:

    That era always brings back this memory:

    I was watching the game just the other day
    And Moses Malone, he said to Dr. J
    He said, “Our lucky number is fo-fi-fo.”

    Pieces of a Dream, “Fo-Fi-Fo.”

    Comment from Cynthia El, one of the songwriters:

    The reason Moses Malone is mentioned in the lyrics is because he predicted the Sixers would win the 1983 championship series in three straight consecutive wins of four games each (4-4-4). However, the championship was actually won in 4-5-4. Hence, we titled the song “Fo-Fi-Fo” because of Malone’s endearing Southern drawl [. . .].

  143. 143.

    smith

    @Tony Jay: Yeah, sure. I can imagine the howls of outrage if you were actually overrun by American refugees, most of them liberals telling you you’re doing it all wrong.

  145. 145.

    Tony Jay

    @smith:

    Oh, it’d be fine. We wouldn’t understand most of what you’re saying and the bits we do understand we’d put down to jet lag.

  146. 146.

    Kay

    This always happens at BJ as an election nears – the same kind of echo chambery thing happened here in 2012. In my opinion.

    But then low info sporadic centrists swung to Obama rather then Romney and Obama won. I bet that happens again with Biden. They’ll be afraid of Trump.

  147. 147.

    Baud

    @Kay:

    BJ doesn’t want to come to terms with how terrible people are, which is why the polls are close and why the election will likely be as well.

  149. 149.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Anoniminous: ​
     

    71.7% of U.S. adults (183 million) now relying solely on wireless phones meaning they are invisible to polling.

    Citation needed. It’s not like pollsters haven’t been aware of this for the past 25 years. Random digit dialing was a thing even before cell phones became common. And sure, cell phone users see a strange number and don’t pick up, but my landline has caller ID too.

    The tricky part, I’d guess, is if one is trying to poll a particular state, since area codes now just mean where you were living when you first got a cell phone, so RDD of the area codes in a state are going to give you a mix of people who live in that state with people who moved away years ago.

  150. 150.

    japa21

    @Kay: ​
      Overall, I agree with you regarding the centrist votes versus the left. The left that is the loudest is the left that finda one reason or another to never vote for Dems anyways. The rest of the left will still vote Biden, though they may mumble under their breath when they do so. The votes in the center to center right are the most vulnerable, and I agree with your assessment up thread. It becomes walking on a tight rope. They need to know their concerns are heard, but not to the point where any of the rest of the coalition is thrown under the bus.

    There is an additional factor at play and it will be interesting to see how it impacts the race. Media is starting to pay attention to Trump’s meanderings and mental status. The Chicago Sun Times had a headline today, “Trump challenges Biden to take a cognitive test, but then gets confused by the name of the doctor who gave him his.”

    Plus, more reporters are saying Mr. Trump rather than President Trump. A lot of little things that will add up. This will be more likely to, if not put the mushy center directly into the Biden camp, at least keep them from the Trump camp.

  152. 152.

    wjca

    @lowtechcyclist: cell phone users see a strange number and don’t pick up, but my landline has caller ID too.

    I don’t know about anybody else.  But I might pick up a call from a name I don’t recognize.  What I won’t do is pick up if a) all I see is a phone number, b) I see a “name” which is nonsense, or, especially, c) the caller ID is “blocked number“.

    That would seem to provide a window of opportunity for a polling organization.  IF it has the minimal wit to put their name in their caller ID.  Either they don’t, or I’ve simply never been called.

  153. 153.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @MomSense: I went back and looked at Twitter posts on 10/8 and aside from some very understandable posts by Jewish Liberals about the horrors of 10/7, the script almost immediately turned to Israel/Genocide (and a lot of denial of the 10/7 atrocities) etc.  This is even before Israel’s retaliation had really gotten going.  The speed with which people turned all focus to Israel, skipping right past what Hamas had done, felt really inorganic and likely coordinated by Russia, China, Iran and other bad actors online.  And I say that as someone who has felt that Palestinians live in an effective apartheid state and could never understand why so many people on the Left didn’t talk about that.  To see so many accounts flip to framings of Colonialism, Apartheid, Jewish People R White etc., so damn fast…I dunno, something has always seemed really off about it.

  154. 154.

    eclare

    @Baud:

    She cussed out SCOTUS by name at a show after Dobbs, maybe Glastonbury? So maybe she has enough “edge” not to be just feminine.  I like her music.

  155. 155.

    Kay

    @japa21:

    Agree. Media are getting better than they were at pointing out how nuts Trump is. I think that will scare enough normies.
    Centrist defectors damage Ds more than Lefties do too because they’re on media more – one James Carville is worse than 100 Twitter Leftists.
    I’ve had a really good year at the law office so I’ve been trying something new. I’m sending largish donations to 3 swing county Dem orgs in MI – the county Parties. I’m interested in what they do with it.

  156. 156.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Bill Arnold: The PRC space programs (civilian/scientific/military/dual use satellites, advanced launch vehicles, human flight, space station, moon missions, Mars missions, etc.) are part of meticulous, sustained & long term efforts that steadily build toward increasingly ambitious goals that eventually positions the PRC at the forefront, while also aiming to do some interesting & unique in the meantime (such as exploring the far side of the moon).

    State media absolutely plays on these achievements for all their are worth domestically & they form part of the soft power push in the Global South, but they are not the main drivers of the space programs.

    Overdoing the propaganda could also risk ridicule, as it would inevitably draw comparisons to NASA’s extraordinary Mars missions & hallowed glory of the Apollo program. Mao’s boasts about surpassing Britain & catching up to America in 10 years, & the calamitous Great Leap Forward that it helped kick off, left an enduring bad taste. There was a concerning triumphalist moment  from mid-‘20 through ‘21, due to the diverging courses of the COVID-19 pandemic, but thankfully the tribulations of ‘22 out an end to that.

Comments are closed.