Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

The willow is too close to the house.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

The revolution will be supervised.

The National Guard is not Batman.

75% of people clapping liked the show!

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

Roe is not about choice. It is about freedom.

Too little, too late, ftfnyt. fuck all the way off.

To the privileged, equality seems like oppression.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty. ~Thomas Jefferson

Democracy is not a spectator sport.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 845: A Brief Monday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 845: A Brief Monday Night Update

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A painting by Ukrainian artist NEIVANMADE. The words "NEVER AGAIN" are repeated over and over, from left to right and top to bottom, in a faded, washed out black against a white background. Red, the color of blood, runs and drips down across 2/3rds of the painting. "WHILE YOU TOLERATE TYRANTS" is written/painted in the bottom white corner below the three rows of "NEVER AGAIN".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing fine after today’s chemotherapy session. We’ll see how she does as the week progresses. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I’m fried. Not sure what it is, but just feeling run down. It’s not COVID, at least not according to test #1. Just feeling bleh. So I’m going to try to keep this as short as possible tonight. As I drafted the post, an air raid alert went up for Mykholaiv Oblast and then was taken down.

As I start this at 7:15 PM EDT the only air raid alerts are for Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and the latter just went up. I’ll keep an eye on it while I’m drafting tonight’s update.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

No Pauses Now, We Have Made the First Tangible Step Towards Peace – Address by the President of Ukraine

17 June 2024 – 19:25

Dear Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

First of all, there were reports from the military on the frontline – first of all, Pokrovsk and other directions in the Donetsk region, as well as the Kharkiv region. Our forces are gradually pushing the occupier out of the Kharkiv region, and I thank every warrior and every unit for this, who are clearly fulfilling their tasks. And especially those who are also replenishing our “exchange fund” with Russian soldiers.

Secondly, we had a special discussion today at the Staff meeting about unmanned systems – all types of drones that our Defense Forces need, which we produce in Ukraine and supply. We reviewed each element of the Defense Forces, and there was a report on the combat results of drones. Very tangible, strong results – the Security Service of Ukraine, the Defense Intelligence, the Foreign Intelligence Service, the National Guard, the Armed Forces of Ukraine – well done indeed. In particular, in terms of combat drones and the destruction of equipment and other forces of the invader. Drones are the technological component in which we should have an advantage. And we will. In some types of unmanned systems, Ukrainians are already a global leader. This is also evident in our negotiations with our partners – many are interested in the experience our warriors already have and in the equipment we produce in Ukraine. In due course, we will definitely help each of our partners to strengthen their security by developing their unmanned forces. Ukrainians know how to be grateful.

And thirdly, I held a meeting today to discuss the results of the Peace Summit and to prepare our next steps. No pauses now. We have made the first tangible step towards peace – in the unprecedented unity of the countries worldwide. This is Ukraine’s success that for the first time in our history so many leaders and states have gathered for the sake of Ukraine and for the sake of peace. I thank everyone who was represented at the Summit. But peace is always the path. New steps are needed. And they will be taken. We are already preparing them. I am grateful to our team. We are preparing the accession of states to the final Communiqué of the Summit. We are preparing the work of groups on the points of the Peace Formula so that states can unite for the sake of clear specifics, decisions and action plans that will actually restore security. Actually, we already have a preliminary work schedule for the summer months. We will not slow down. We will keep our communication with our partners as active as before. Ukraine never wanted this war, and naturally, it wants a just peace the most. And we see that it is possible. We are bringing peace closer. I thank everyone in the world who helps us. And I am proud of each and every one who is fighting for Ukraine, who is defending Ukraine at the front, who is working for our country and people. This extraordinary courage and loyalty allow us to work with completely different partners in conditions of equal respect for the just interests of Ukraine. Ukraine now has its own strong agency. Today we also had a report on the European Union – our relations, our accession negotiations. We are working on an important result.

Glory to Ukraine!

If you were curious how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine effected the Biden administration’s national security policies and strategies, The Financial Times has some interesting reporting that will clarify this for you.

In the end it was Vladimir Putin who delivered the key turning point. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent energy prices to multiyear highs and US officials feared that Riyadh, which had been co-operating with Moscow on oil production since 2016, might side with the Russian president.

“Great power competition with China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine understandably changed the Biden administration’s views of Saudi Arabia from a problematic partner to a coveted swing state,” says Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment.

The entire article is about the changes in the US-Saudi relationship under the Biden administration, but as the excerpt above demonstrates, none of this stuff happens in a vacuum.

Here’s a (machine translated) battlefield update from Colonel-General Syrskiy posted on his Telegram channel:

I have been working on the Eastern Front for almost a week in parts of various groups that hold defenses on the most critical parts of the front.

The nature of the enemy’s actions has not changed significantly. In Kupyansky, Pokrovsky, Kurakhivsky, and Vremivsky, the operational directions are active offensive actions of various intensities, trying to break through the defenses of our troops and capture important areas of the area, or settlements that affect the stability of our defense.

The enemy focuses the main effort on the Pokrovsky direction, where the vast majority of its shock brigades and regiments are concentrated. fierce fighting continues in the areas of Deep, Time Yaru, Staromayorsk, Robino, Krynok and the islands on the coastal part of the left bank of the Dnieper.

As before, the purpose of my work is to study the situation, help brigade commanders in organizing hostilities, solve problematic issues, provide additional weapons and ammunition, strengthen reserves, and so on.

The enemy is well aware that as a result of the gradual flow of significant weapons and military equipment from our partners, the arrival of the first F-16, which will strengthen our air defense, time will play in our favor, and his chances of success will decrease.

Therefore, the command of Russian troops is currently making every effort to increase the intensity and geography of hostilities in order to maximize the depletion of our troops, disrupt the preparation of reserves, prevent the transition to active offensive actions.

Throughout the front from Kharkiv to Krynok, our servicemen demonstrate resilience, courage and patriotism, and most importantly, faith in our victory.

In particular, the other day, in Donetsk, a Ukrainian warrior of one of the combat brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine captured four Russian occupiers on his own. I believe that this act is a shining example of the courage and high fighting spirit of our defenders and certainly deserves to be honored with an appropriate award.

Thank you to him and all other defenders and defenders of Ukraine, who are responsible for the performance of their duties, for their dedicated service!

As never before, the army needs the maximum support of society in all its senses.
It’s time to unite for our victory!
Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Bakhmut:

Wow. A NYT photographer traveled from Russia into Kremlin-controlled Bakhmut with Chechen troops and photographed the city. This one is especially easy to recognize, as it’s my old neighborhood where I lived 2010-2012. Skyline is slightly different because the large brick tax building was demolished but this photo was 100% taken from a high floor room inside the apartment building on the corner of Bakhmutska and Myru Streets looking N/NW (48°35’03.4″N 38°00’09.8″E). I lived just 200 feet away. If the photo was slightly to the left you could make out my apartment. Screenshot here is mine, with the red circle showing where the photo was made, red lines highlighting approximate view, and the small blue circle where my apartment was located next door.
https://nytimes.com/2024/06/16/world/europe/chechnya-russia-ukraine-war.html

The NYT photographer, @HeitmannNanna, also photographed wounded Russian soldiers inside the Artwinery in Bakhmut, which Russian forces have turned into a military field hospital inside the now former and occupied sparkling winery. I’ve been there many times and have written about it in my book and past news storied, and photographed the inside myself. These photos are clearly of the alabaster mines where the wine-production was done in the eastern district of Bakhmut. https://nytimes.com/2024/06/16/world/europe/chechnya-russia-ukraine-war.html

Kharkiv Oblast:

Some of you have asked about legit charities to donate too. Often I or G&T or Andraya or Dr. Luba or Jay or others will say United24 or Patron’s official charities or to purchase from his shop or from Saint Javelin, but Constantine’s fundraisers are also legit.

I know that to gain public support, we need to have nice images and smiling faces. We have none of that in Kharkiv. We only have hardworking people who just do their jobs, and we still need your help to deliver drones to the Ukrainian armed forces. The donation link is at the end.

The fundraiser has stopped completely, and we still need $41,000. So I am asking for your support: retweet, like, and donate.

Here is a small update on our work in delivering Bohdana protection, please also watch the video, and sorry for poor editing:

☑️We delivered 5 more cages.
☑️It’s very challenging work.
☑️Our workshop operates under air raid alerts, bombings, and electricity outages.
☑️Our workshop is essentially an old, abandoned hangar with a leaking roof and missing walls and gates, but we make do with what we have.
☑️There are not many skilled people in Kharkiv; many have joined the military.
☑️Our welder Tolik is 52 years old today.
☑️My mom, who is designing the cages, is 69 years old.

🔗Donation link: https://paypal.com/pools/c/95mZ0waegT

Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast:

Robotyne:

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Donetsk Oblast:

Evacuation from Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk region, to the sound of shelling.

This time, Yakiv, his mother Zinaida and their dog Pirat were successfully evacuated.

But, unfortunately, Mrs Masha died on one of the streets. She refused to evacuate earlier.

People who did not want to leave before are now ready.

How many more lives will Russia destroy?

📹: deniskhrystoff/TikTok

The Czech Republic:

Given previous Russian subversion and sabotage activities in the EU, including in Czechia, it’ll be important to see what the investigation of this incident turn up.

Yekaterinburg, Russia:

Moscow:

The Insider has the details:

Putin’s niece Anna Tsivileva has been appointed as Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, as stated in the official decree published on Russia’s legal acts portal. Pavel Fradkov, the youngest son of Mikhail Fradkov, Director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies and former Prime Minister and chief of foreign intelligence, has also been appointed as Deputy Minister of Defense.

Anna Tsivileva is married to Sergey Tsivilyev, Russia’s Minister of Energy, who assumed office in May after leading the Kemerovo Region. Tsivileva, formerly Anna Putina, has been previously reported by Agentstvo to be President Putin’s second cousin.

Tsivileva owns a major coal company named Kolmar. In August 2022, her coal enterprise relocated from Switzerland to Dubai to circumvent the embargo on Russian coal. Additionally, the family owns a tourism venture at the Sheregesh ski resort, managed by Tsivileva’s son from her previous marriage, who is also a relative of Putin.

Tsivileva heads the Defenders of the Fatherland foundation, established by Putin, which supports soldiers in the so-called “Special Military Operation” (a euphemism used by the Russian state to refer to its invasion of Ukraine). During a live broadcast in December 2023, Putin praised Tsivileva, mentioning that citizens had donated over 10 billion rubles ($112 million) to the foundation for military purposes.

I’m sure she’s well qualified. Has extensive knowledge of military strategy, doctrine, concepts, and logistics.

It seems that not even half a week goes by without Russia creating another bullshit for everyone to see.

A Moscow court decided to detain a Ukrainian military man in absentia on terrorism charges for shooting down a Russian A-50 in February of this year:

“… On February 23, 2024, Russian airspace was patrolled by an aircraft of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation. According to the investigation, Colonel Dzyaman, realizing that the aircraft in question was not intended for combat operations, had no weapons, and the flight took place exclusively in the airspace of the Russian Federation, gave an illegal order to his subordinate military personnel to destroy it. These actions led to the death of 10 crew members and the destruction of the aircraft.

Dzyaman was charged in absentia with committing a crime under paragraph “b” of Part 3 of Art. 205 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (terrorist act resulting in the death of a person), he is put on the federal wanted list.”

https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1892602

If you ever feel ludicrous, pathetic, and laughable, just remember that Russia once brought criminal charges against a Ukrainian air defense unit commander in absentia over the downing of a Russian Airspace Force’s A-50 AWACS aircraft (which Russia said never happened!) on the grounds of the A-50 being “non-combat aircraft that has no weaponry on board” that “was carrying out a flight exclusively within the Russian airspace.”

You just can’t make this stuff up.

This is an interesting explanation of how Russia is recruiting foreigners – in this case a Somali – to serve as mercenary soldiers in Ukraine.

A frank interview with a Somali mercenary Adil in the Russian army who was captured in Ukraine. The guy is not stupid, he explains the situation with recruiting foreigners in Russia with ease.

– It’s very simple to get to Russia – just a week and your tourist visa is ready.

– People see advertisements for war and the army everywhere in Russia – many foreigners do not immediately understand that this is an army, and not some kind of security organisation.

– No one gave specifics about whether he would go to the front or remain in Russia. The man was promised a passport and money – for him it was a real dream. He thought he’d live like a King back home.

– Nobody explains the motivation for fighting in Ukraine. Adil had no idea who was fighting whom and for what.

– Training was only 7 weeks, very limited. Adil thought it couldn’t be that he was being deceived. But they were thrown onto the front line almost immediately, and Adil calls these days hell. If you get injured, only God will help you. There’s 0% desire to try and save your life.

Given the Russian subversion network in the Sahel, which is coordinated out of the Central African Republic (CAR), where Russia completely controls the government and the military through Prigozhin’s former Wagner network, I expect this guy was recruited by COSI – the Officers Union for International Security – which is headquartered in Bangui and run by a Wagner PMC official who is a retired Spetznaz colonel.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Howard Graham Buffett is the middle child of Warren Buffett in case anyone was unsure (I had to look it up because I was unsure).

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

29Comments

  3. 3.

    Jay

    Anton Gerashchenko
    @Gerashchenko_en
    10h
    Ten thousand first aid kits for the Ukrainian military at her own expense, assistance to Ukrainian orphanages, and unique dumpling sandwiches:

    Rachael Ray @rachaelray, a popular American cooking show host and two-time Daytime Emmy Award winner, has already visited Ukraine six times since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Each time, she buys medical equipment and conducts workshops for injured Ukrainian Defenders.

    Thank you! Every time I learn of cases like this one, I feel reassurance – so many people are standing with Ukraine, are walking this path with us.

    📹: Voice of America

    nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1802700041930342437#m

  10. 10.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On Saudi Arabia, I am not even sure it is the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has driven the turnabout in Biden’s posture toward the KSA, it is transparently about the Great Power Competition w/ the PRC & the geopolitical rivalry w/ Iran (& an inexplicable faith that KSA-Israel rapprochement will “solve” the intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict). The urgency to consummate a KSA-Israel pact, whatever the US needs to offer, seemed to have taken greater urgency after the PRC facilitated the KSA-Iranian deal. In reality, that deal was mostly driven by the geopolitical calculations of the KSA & Iran themselves, Beijing merely provided a platform for them to close, & they both calculated it to be in their geopolitical interest to have the PRC help to guarantee the deal & get a share of the credit (& the main share of the limelight).

    Every US geopolitical analyst that I follow on Twitter has been aghast at the concessions that the Biden Administration is willing to make to the KSA, & is dumbfounded why the Administrations insists on staying this course. The obvious problems are:

    1. Israel & the KSA are interested rapprochement, the US does not need to make so many concessions for the two sides to come together.
    2. The main sticking point as been Israel’s refusal to make even symbolic concessions on the treatment of the Palestinians or the formation of a Palestinian state, & striking a deal w/ Israel w/o some kind of symbolic concessions on this front is no longer politically tenable for the KSA or any of the Sunni Arab states, in light of the ongoing atrocities in Gaza; the US should not be trying to make up for the concessions that Bibi refuses to accede to, w/ concessions of its own.
    3. Even w/ a deal, the KSA will continue to swing, MBS will not try to fight economic gravity, he will try to take opportunistically take advantage (which applies to the Sino-US Great Power Competition); the US is a competitor to the Kingdom the global hydrocarbon market, the PRC is the key customer for the KSA’s oil exports, & the PRC is by far the most capable partner for the KSA’s ambitions to pivot away from being a petro-state, by offering advanced green tech, telecom infrastructure, & physical infrastructure; the PRC will help to guarantee the ongoing détente w/ Iran (IIRC, most of the Gulf States sent senior officials to Raisi’s funeral)
    4. Elevating the KSA from a regional partner to a treaty ally the US much more closely to the problematic aspects of the KSA’s domestic & regional policies (see Yemen), & the US across multiple administrations has not shown the ability or willingness to rein in the KSA in any way
    5. As the US more tightly embraces the KSA, who in the US domestic politics will MBS favor, Ds or Rs; see the precedence that Bibi has set

    The above applies to every other Gulf State, or Sunni Arab state, too. The UAE has pivoted to partnership w/ the US on AI & biotech, as the US remains the leader here. OTOH, it remains committed to its partnership w/ the PRC on green tech, telecom & physical infrastructure. Like so many authoritarian states in the Global South, the Gulf States are partnering w/ the PRC to build their tools for domestic surveillance & repression, while continuing to partner w/ the US on national defense.

    As I’ve said ad nauseam on these threads, there are all kinds of perverse consequences when one makes Great Power Competition the central organizing principle of foreign (& domestic, for that matter) policy, internationally & domestically. We’ve seen many versions of this play many times during the Cold War.

  11. 11.

    Jay

    Glasnost Gone
    @GlasnostGone
    10h
    Russia 🤪 pushing the boundaries of military technology… back to WW1. #UkraineWillWin

    nitter.poast.org/GlasnostGone/status/1802717980402278673#m

    Side by side photo’s of a “drone protected” ruZZian tank captured with it’s crew by Ukraine, and a German Sturmpanzerwagen A7V from 1918. The Sturmpanzerwagen A7V was rare, very late to the war, not very successful, and tended to fall on it’s side. “Victim” of the only incident of tank on tank combat in WWI.

    Yes, the ruZZian’s have introduced “barn tanks” as the “turtle tanks” have not fared well in combat.

  12. 12.

    TBone

    @Jay: thanks for sharing that, I had no idea that Rachel Ray is stepping up.  I did know about Howard Buffet.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    @TBone:

    Welcome, there are lots of people standing up for Ukraine, many are not famous.

    NAFO delivered their 15th convoy of aid to Ukraine today. 25 crowdfunded and donated trucks and vans in NAFO camo, for used by various orgs, from aid workers to Combat units, to use as utility, evacuation and unit transportation.

  14. 14.

    Jay

    SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre
    @StratcomCentre
    12h
    The next time one of your friends has fallen down the Russian disinformation rabbit hole and telling you of “Russian Donbass”, send them here..

    Because once you learn the REAL history of Ukraine’s Donbass region, it’s easy to see why Russians have spent decades attempting to write a new one.

    Ukrainian Cossacks, Welsh industrialists and French bankers developed the region until Russians brought massacres, theft and repression.

    We lay it out here.

    @eurofactcheck @factchecknet

    nitter.poast.org/StratcomCentre/status/1802692418598314182#

    6 minute embedded quick history of the Donbas.

  17. 17.

    Redshift

    Hard to imagine approving of anything Putin does, but if he wants to make the Russian military even more corrupt, I’m all for it!

  19. 19.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: The issue is that the people driving the Great Power Competition train don’t actually understand the concept or the nuance or what to do about it. It’s just code for anti-PRC, new red scare of the Chinese Communist Party, economic protectionism, need an alien other to other, etc.

  20. 20.

    Carlo Graziani

    I’m not sure this, from Syrsky, is good:

    As before, the purpose of my work is to study the situation, help brigade commanders in organizing hostilities, solve problematic issues, provide additional weapons and ammunition, strengthen reserves, and so on.

    I would have thought that the C-in-C of the Army would have more productive uses for his time than instructing brigade commanders, and that he would rely on trusted deputies at lower echelons for that level of intervention. I’m fairly sure that this would be a pretty anomalous command relationship in NATO. And I wonder whether some older, Soviet-era-inspired practice is informing Syrsky’s management style. I hope not.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: I think that nuance will always be lost on most of the politicians, the majority of the DC “Blob” careerists, & the vast majority of the masses. There are enough cynical charlatans, would be authoritarians & herrenvolk nativists in any polity that will inevitably emerge to try to take advantage of geopolitical competition to advance their own ends. Democracies where populism is on the rise are especially susceptible.

    That is why I prefer the Left Wing (from the likes of Van Jackson & Matt Duss) critique & the Left Wing proposals for establishing an actually just & fair international order, w/ transparent rules that are consistently applied to powers great & small. Or at least as close to that ideal as we can get. US primacy is not the only alternative to PRC (or Russian, or Indian) primacy.

    To me, saying there is a “right way” to wage Great Power Competition is like there is a “right way” to run a dictatorship. Benign dictatorship is conceptually feasible, but in execution will always fall prey to the darker human impulses.

  22. 22.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Tatarigami_UA has consistently criticized Syrsky for being a micromanager that fails to see the forest for the trees & constrains the freedom of action of brigade commanders.

  23. 23.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Shit.

    Zaluzhny was a gem. There are undercurrents of Ukrainian (possibly party) politics that are opaquely damaging the war effort. I wish it weren’t so.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Evan Feigenbaum at the Carnegie Endowment has often warned that the US risks becoming the “Hessians of the Indo-Pacific” w/ its excessively militaristic & securitized policy orientation since Obama’s “Pacific Pivot”, which has since gotten much worse over the Trump & Biden Administrations. W/ the proposed US-KSA deal, the former might become the “Hessians of the MENA”. Or maybe it has always played that role…

    The below NYT article paints a similar picture, if you carefully parse the words & sentiments of the Indo-Pacific policy elites:

    In China’s Backyard, America Has Become a Humbler Superpower
    The United States no longer towers over the Asia-Pacific, dictating terms to its allies. Instead, it’s offering to be a teammate and share responsibilities.
    By Damien Cave
    Damien Cave spent more than a year interviewing current and former officials from the U.S. and a dozen other countries for this article.
    June 13, 2024

  26. 26.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Kind of relevant to some of the heated discussions of the last couple of days, here is one of the harshest Left Wing critics of Biden’s foreign & [aspects of] domestic economic policy layout the stakes in Nov.:

    MAGA Geopolitics: Between Extinction and a New Dark Age
    A trove of public statements from MAGA technocrats paints a picture of future foreign policy that makes “Genocide Joe” look quaint.

    UN-DIPLOMATIC

    JUN 18, 2024

    During the Trump years, I made a career doing battle with the Trump administration. As long as our policies put death into the world, it’s hard to be anything other than outspoken. Which is why I’ve also been one of the Biden administration’s most vocalcritics.

    But you must understand that these guys are not the same. Yes, Biden’s policies are supporting ongoing war crimes that could be credibly labeled a genocide. Yes, those choices are showing signs of spiralling into a regional war. And yes, both Trump and Biden are grand-strategic primacists in their own ways.

    But what MAGA is literally promising to bring to foreign policy after 2024 is going to be truly horrific.

    Right-wing China hawks like Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher have called for regime change in Beijing and argued for even more defense spending (Biden’s defense budget is hovering around a trillion dollars, if you didn’t know). They believe China’s already at war with us, which is fabulously incorrect, and insofar as that diagnosis directs our response, is also a death sentence for the world.
    MAGA soothsayer Stephen Miller is on the record advocating for the activation of red-state national guard troops to invade sanctuary cities in blue states. I can’t think of a more direct path to civil war in America than that.
    Trump is now contemplating mandatory military service for all men, which would rip America apart almost as quickly as red states invading blue ones.
    And now Bloomberg is reporting that one of Trump’s four national security advisers, Robert O’Brien, is about to publish a piece in Foreign Affairs arguing that:

    “If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he should sever all economic ties with China, consider deploying the entire US Marine Corps to Asia and resume live nuclear-weapons testing…”

    I know some readers don’t like when I swear, but there are 186,000 active-duty Marines—where the FUCK are they going to go!? What the FUCK are they going to do!? And at whose FUCKING expense will they do it!?

    …

    So Biden’s foreign policy is a travesty. It’s stuck in the past and relates to the world in violent, exclusionary ways that render all of us less secure. But in terms of pouring direct harm into the universe, Biden’s foreign policy is the baseline for MAGA foreign policy—however much evil gets perpetuated as a result of US choices under Biden, that’s simply an opening bid for MAGA.

    …

    As always w/ Van Jackson, I think it is worth reading in whole.

  28. 28.

    Chris

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    They believe China’s already at war with us

    Not to diminish the role of racism and the usual more neocon-tinged arguments, but it’s remarkable how transparently their obsession with China comes down to “we really need a Big Foreign Adversary that isn’t Russia to talk about.”

    Half the wingnut complaints about China since 2016 have amounted to “yes but look over there!“

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chris: That describes a bunch of the R China Hawks who were veterans of the Trump Administration (Elbridge Colby is the poster boy of this particular set). They are the ones who argue that Ukraine is a dangerous distraction for the central contest that the US must engage in the Indo-Pacific (how I hate this neologism), & thus best left to the Europeans & Ukraine to whatever fate befalls it. Better yet, pull a reverse Kissinger & reach rapprochement w/ Putin (& sacrifice whichever states in the fUSSR & former Warsaw Pact in so doing) so that the latter can be enlisted to help contain the PRC.

    The only consistent thread in all of their policy proposals is that they benefit Putin, even their eagerness to wage a cold war (& possibly a hot war) w/ the PRC. Curious in that way.

Comments are closed.