Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing excellently with little to no side effects from this week’s chemo treatment. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
As I start tonight’s update – 7:40 PM EDT – all of eastern and southern Ukraine are under air raid alert. I haven’t seen anything about cruise missiles yet, but I’ll keep an eye out.
Here’s the butcher’s bill from Russia’s attack on Ukraine last night/this morning.
Russia hit Ukraine’s power infrastructure with a massive missile and drone attack, damaging facilities in four regions. Explosions reported in Dnipro region, thermal power plant seriously damaged. Russia’s trying to leave Ukraine without heating, employing gaps in air defense. pic.twitter.com/Qmd4oKXK8Y
Last night @KpsZSU shot down 5 missiles & 27 attack UAVs across Ukraine. The main focus of the strike was in the East, in particular in Dnipropetrovsʼk region. At least 4 people were killed & 15 others were injured due to the attacks. TPP was attacked for the seventh time in the… pic.twitter.com/d83IlE7Zxh
— Гюндуз Мамедов/Gyunduz Mamedov (@MamedovGyunduz) June 20, 2024
Last night @KpsZSU shot down 5 missiles & 27 attack UAVs across Ukraine. The main focus of the strike was in the East, in particular in Dnipropetrovsʼk region. At least 4 people were killed & 15 others were injured due to the attacks. TPP was attacked for the seventh time in the last 3 months: 3 workers were injured & the plantʼs equipment was seriously damaged. At least 60 private houses, a shopping center, a farm & construction equipment were destroyed. #StopRussianAggression
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Life of Ukraine Must Be Preserved, Particularly in Terms of Energy Supply – Address by the President
20 June 2024 – 19:11
Dear Ukrainians!
Today, I held a meeting of the Staff that was dedicated primarily to protecting the energy sector from Russian attacks and protecting our people from the consequences of Russian energy terror.
A very specific task is to provide maximum support to people and communities and to do everything possible to prevent Russian terrorists from achieving their goals. The life of Ukraine must be preserved, particularly in terms of energy supply.
At the Staff meeting, there were reports from government officials, heads of energy companies, military personnel, and security sector leaders. Specific decisions were made.
First. The government has been tasked with immediately presenting a program to encourage the installation of solar generation and energy storage systems in Ukraine, a program that is as favorable as possible. It should be as easy to use as the “5-7-9” program, but with a zero percent annual interest rate in hryvnia for citizens.
Second. A clear plan for completing all protective structures for the energy sector, with a specific deadline for each facility. Executives at every level need to accelerate their efforts.
Third. All public and administrative buildings in the country, as well as all critical infrastructure facilities, need appropriate alternative energy sources. To this end, the Government, regional and local administrations, energy companies, and everyone else involved must work together to ensure that Ukraine enters the heating season prepared at the level of each community and our entire country.
Fourth. The state will continue to work on creating new energy generation and new decentralized energy capacities. Specific projects must be approved, and deadlines for each of them must be presented.
And fifth. The state must significantly intensify efforts to stimulate the construction of new balancing and maneuverable capacities for the energy sector. This process is quite challenging in wartime conditions, but we must implement it, just as we have already implemented many difficult projects.
Of course, there were reports and instructions at the Staff meeting today regarding the security component, namely the protection of energy facilities from Russian strikes and sabotage activities. Clear work is also being done in this regard. I am grateful to everyone in the Defense Forces, intelligence and Security Forces who protect our infrastructure and prevent the occupier from weakening Ukraine.
And a few more things.
I thank Romania for the decision to transfer the Patriot system to Ukraine – this is a truly powerful step. As a result, there will be greater security throughout our region, for all our neighbors. For Moldova, for the Baltic states, for Romania as well. We are now capable of defeating Russia’s imperial ambitions, and this will bring peace and confidence back to our entire Europe. We are now working with the team to secure the delivery of several more Patriots.
Today I would also like to thank the European Union for another step in the preparation of a new EU sanctions package. It is very important to keep up the pressure on Russia for this war and the violation of the rules-based international order.
In addition, we have another signatory to the Joint Communiqué of the first Peace Summit in Switzerland. Zambia has joined, increasing the representation of Africa among those who genuinely want to restore the full effectiveness of the UN Charter. There will be more accessions to the communiqué. Thank you to our team and everyone who helps!
Thank you to each and every one who stands with Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Romania:
Romania will provide a Patriot system to Ukraine!
The Supreme Council of National Defense of Romania decided to donate a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.
We are grateful to our Romanian friends for their unwavering support.
The Supreme Council of National Defense of Romania decided to donate a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.
We are grateful to our Romanian friends for their unwavering support.
This decision will help protect the Ukrainian people from russian terror. Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇷🇴
Related from the US:
White House confirms Ukraine will get priority on air defense missile deliveries over orders from other countries; Romania will transfer a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine; and more. https://t.co/0rdMMeyNaY
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 20, 2024
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
The U.S. is to prioritize deliveries of air defense missiles to Ukraine over orders from other countries, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on June 20.
“The United States government has made the difficult but necessary decision to reprioritize near-term planned deliveries of foreign military sales to other countries, particularly Patriot and NASAMS missiles, to go to Ukraine instead,” he said in comments reported by AFP.
Comments from U.S. President Joe Biden earlier this month strongly suggested such a move was on the table.
“We let it be known to those countries that are expecting from us air defense systems in the future that they’re going to have to wait,” Biden said after signing a 10-year security deal with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Italy on June 13.
In a post on social media on June 20, Zelensky thanked President Biden for the latest decision.
“The partnership between Ukraine and the United States is strong and unwavering. Together, we are protecting life against terror and aggression,” he said.
I am deeply grateful to @POTUS and the United States for prioritising Ukraine in the delivery of air defenses that we critically need to defeat Russian attacks.
These additional air defense capabilities will protect Ukrainian cities and civilians. I thank President Biden for the…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 20, 2024
I am deeply grateful to @POTUS and the United States for prioritising Ukraine in the delivery of air defenses that we critically need to defeat Russian attacks.
These additional air defense capabilities will protect Ukrainian cities and civilians. I thank President Biden for the essential support, which we discussed during our recent meeting in Italy.
The partnership between Ukraine and the United States is strong and unwavering. Together, we are protecting life against terror and aggression.
The US decision to prioritize Ukraine in the delivery of air defense interceptors is groundbreaking and deeply appreciated.
Two major decisions from Romania and the United States in just one day: on delivering the Patriot system and additional air defense missiles.
The US decision to prioritize Ukraine in the delivery of air defense interceptors is groundbreaking and deeply appreciated.
Two major decisions from Romania and the United States in just one day: on delivering the Patriot system and additional air defense missiles.
After months of hard work we are not going to stop here. There will be even more systems and missiles to defend Ukraine. Work is in progress.
I would like to specifically thank @SecBlinken for his dependable partnership in rallying the world and finding solutions with various partners to strengthen Ukraine’s defense.
Today’s message is crystal clear: our unity and resolve are rock solid.
Seoul:
South Korea blasts Russia-North Korea deal, says it will consider possible arms supplies to Ukraine https://t.co/bprlujn7uc
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea said Thursday that it would consider sending arms to Ukraine, a major policy change that was suggested after Russia and North Korea rattled the region and beyond by signing a pact to come to each other’s defense in the event of war.
The comments from a senior presidential official came hours after North Korea’s state media released the details of the agreement, which observers said could mark the strongest connection between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War. It comes at a time when Russia faces growing isolation over the war in Ukraine and both countries face escalating standoffs with the West.
Yoon’s national security adviser, Chang Ho-jin, said that Seoul would reconsider the issue of providing arms to Ukraine to help the country fight off Russia’s full-scale invasion.
South Korea, a growing arms exporter with a well-equipped military backed by the United States, has provided humanitarian aid and other support to Ukraine, while joining U.S.-led economic sanctions against Moscow. But it hasn’t directly provided arms to Kyiv, citing a longstanding policy of not supplying weapons to countries actively engaged in conflict.
Speaking to reporters in Hanoi, where he traveled after Pyongyang, Putin said Thursday that supplying weapons to Ukraine would be “a very big mistake” on South Korea’s part. If that happens, Putin said that it would lead to “decisions that are unlikely to please the current leadership of South Korea.”
He said that South Korea “shouldn’t worry” about the agreement, if Seoul isn’t planning any aggression against Pyongyang.
Asked whether Ukrainian strikes on Russian regions with Western-supplied weapons could be considered an act of aggression, Putin said that “it needs to be additionally studied, but it’s close to it,” and that Moscow isn’t ruling out supplying weapons to North Korea in response.
Lyptsy, Kharkiv Oblast:
If this is not a FREAKING MASSIVE WAKE UP CALL for finally doing everything possible and impossible to find a solution to the notorious UMPK problem, I don’t know what is. https://t.co/tak36iqdR8
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 20, 2024
Remember how we discussed Nova Poshta opening stores/outlets throughout the EU a few weeks back when Russia hit the main sorting facility in Ukraine? And that many of them had been vandalized? This strike is part of that campaign to target Nova Poshta inside and outside of Ukraine.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 20, 2024
Here’s the full text of Ponomarenko’s first tweet:
Last night, someone vandalized the graves of our friends and heroic warfighters @_juicefighter_, @VovkyDaVinchi, and @vkrainets at Askoldova Mohyla memorial site in Kyiv.
It was apparently done by a female violator who is yet to be identified (and I’m sure we’ll know the name)… the police is investigating the crime.
Hopefully the Ukrainian authorities can get this woman the help she needs.
Vasylkiv:
Meet Serhii. He shot down a russian missile with a machine gun.
It happened on June 12, when his mobile fire group intercepted an enemy missile headed for the Kyiv region.
“We were informed that the target is close. A few seconds later, we saw an enemy missile heading towards… pic.twitter.com/EcIj6IM2k1
Meet Serhii. He shot down a russian missile with a machine gun.
It happened on June 12, when his mobile fire group intercepted an enemy missile headed for the Kyiv region.
“We were informed that the target is close. A few seconds later, we saw an enemy missile heading towards Vasylkiv. Without hesitation, I took a machine gun and opened fire on the target. There was only one thing on my mind: I had to shoot it down! After firing a round from the machine gun, I saw that the missile began to deviate from its course and descend,” Serhii recalls.
Serhii believed that the missile was shot down only when he saw its fragments with his own eyes.
Yesterday Russians gathers forces to attack Ukrainian positions in Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar direction. On the video, a tank of the Defense Forces of Ukraine fires at Russian BMP.
Deepstate regarding Russian attack in Kalynivka area:
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024
Yesterday Russians gathers forces to attack Ukrainian positions in Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar direction. On the video, a tank of the Defense Forces of Ukraine fires at Russian BMP.
Deepstate regarding Russian attack in Kalynivka area:
“A total of 6 Russian AFVs were destroyed. Among them are 2 tanks, 2 BMPs, 1 unidentified type of equipment and 1 MT-LB. MT-LB was a kamikaze, it is the one that explodes at 00:50 second of the video.”
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024
Kharkiv:
Kids are getting ready for their graduation ceremony performance in a bunker in Kharkiv. Most of them have only experienced school online. pic.twitter.com/SZmVa4BoGf
Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team take a deep dive into the gaps and holes in the sanctions regime. Via the Thread Reader App:
Sanctions enforcement against Russia remains weak, as companies, including those from the West, continue to supply critical manufacturing equipment to sanctioned Russian firms. Frontelligence Insight reveals details of its investigation and provides evidence.
🧵Thread:
2/ The Russian UAV manufacturer “Albatros,” based in Alabuga, is led by Aleksei Florov, also a chief designer involved in the localization of Iranian Shahed drones in Alabuga. Both “Albatros” and Aleksei Florov are sanctioned by several countries, including the US.
3/ The documents obtained by @CyberResUa and analyzed by Frontelligence Insight reveal that Aleksei Florov and his “Albatros” not only maintain trade relations with foreign companies through intermediaries but often engage directly with them.
4/ While Chinese companies play a key role, other companies, including French and Korean, have also been spotted. For instance, the Russian branch of the South Korean software company Midas Engineering Software directly offered to provide manufacturing software to Albatros
5/ Thanks to an email conversation between Florov and Dmitry Vorontsov, the regional manager of “UNIT MARK PRO,” we know that Unit Mark Pro supplies the Russian military industry, including Zala Aero (Lancet manufacturer), with industrial equipment from SIC Marking, France
6/ Chinese companies often work directly with Albatros to supply crucial components like semiconductors. Leaked emails reveal that Asia Semiconductor openly offer to bypass sanctions and supply with Mean Well, Aimtec, Siemens, Chinfa, Maxim, XILINX, Atmel, Wago, Vicor, and ST/TI
7/ Another example is Ericco Inertial System, based in Xi’an, China, which reached out directly to the CEO of Albatros, offering to sell MEMS MIUs (navigational devices for measuring navigational data) for their UAVs.
8/ Unfortunately, it doesn’t stop at relatively small items. The Russian company AREAL was in contact with Albatros, offering to deliver industrial manufacturing equipment such as milling machines, lathes, CNC machines, metal laser, and plasma cutting machines from China and ROC
9/ Based on billing and invoice documents, we know that some transactions were successful. For instance, in October 2023, at least five Japanese Saito engines were purchased for over 1.13 million rubles. The invoice lists Florov as the Chief Designer of “Alabuga”.
10/ It was also disappointing to see NVIDIA representatives reaching out directly to sanctioned Florov to participate in an AI conference. While this may not constitute a violation of sanctions, the careless attitude of corporations shows that sanctions lack seriousness
11/ At the same time, it might not be surprising – after all, Agroassist, another company affiliated with Florov specializing in software for his drones, as covered in our previous investigation, is a member of the Nvidia Inception Program.
12/ The list of companies and products provided here is not exhaustive – the actual number of sanctions violators is much larger, spanning a wider geographic area. However, none of them appear concerned with sanctions or their consequences, due to the lack of enforcement
13/ Our team will continue to investigate and compile a list of violators. The full article, including all names, will be published this week, further detailing how lax sanction enforcement leads to the expansion of Russian military production, particularly in the UAV sector
14/ We appreciate your support. Please consider retweeting and liking this thread to aid with visibility, as raising public awareness is the key.
You can also contribute to our efforts by donating to help fund further investigations like this one:
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024
/2. Krasnodar oil refinery area was targeted.
Approximate POV: (44.9997123, 38.9570887) pic.twitter.com/BxMTHHmVTZ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 21, 2024
/2. Aftermath of the drone strike on oil depot in Platonovka. (52.7167227, 41.9622082) pic.twitter.com/5inIPRw6aJ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024
/1. Two Russian oil depots were hit by drones tonight.
– Oil depot in Platonovka, Tambov region of Russia. 400km from the frontline.
-Lukoil oil depot in Enem, Adygea Republic of Russia. 340km from the frontline.
P.S: Some media also say that Afipskiy oil refinery was hit, but it’s not the case. Enem oil depot and Afipskiy oil refinery are located in close proximity, which has caused erroneous media reports.
/4. Satellite imagery of Russian oil depot in Tambov region after tonight’s drone attack. https://t.co/whgDaUd3Xf
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
11h
During a video call with a Russian captive, his wife marvels at how he has gained weight.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defenders lose 40-50 kg of weight during their imprisonments. They are not allowed to call home. Their families often know nothing of their fate.
Quick run through for me tonight, Adam.
Long day at work then lawn work at home.
Quick question regarding that strike by a MiG-29: Is Ukraine using their MiGs to attack inside Russia proper or only Russian bases/assets on Ukrainian soil?
ETA: You probably know this by now but I”m sure you appreciate actually hearing/reading it – Thanks for the good work.
5.
dr. luba
@Jay: The totally useless ICRC visits russians soldiers in captivity, and insists on first world standards of treatment. Mordor does not allow them to visit Ukrainian soldiers, so they throw up their hands and say “what can we do?’ as Ukrainians in captivity are tortured, denied medical treatment and starved.
6.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: Ukraine only as far as I can tell. And thank you for the kind words.
7.
japa21
@dr. luba: Somehow I have a feeling they would be treated the same way with or without the ICRC involvement. And I am talking about Ukraine’s treatment of Russian captives.
and the ruZZian Red Cross partakes in the kidnapping, torture, adoption and “re-education” of Ukrainian children, along with military training and the ICRC refuses to investigate or pull their membership, and continues to transfer funds to the ruZZians.
9.
Jay
Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
13h
Russia is testing a new model of economic management as it experiences human resource shortages.
Employees of the Kalashnikov Concern in Izhevsk were forced to work overtime because a defense order was being disrupted. Four more hours were added to the shift there: instead of 8, they now work 12. They also have to work on weekends. And the overtime is not paid.
“They justified it by the failure to fulfill the state defense order within the established deadlines. At the same time, the salary was not added.”
Two years ago, Russia passed a decree allowing employees of the defense industry to work overtime (without their consent), even though there is no official military regime in the country.
Russian authorities even threatened to seize defense industry plants from their owners for failing to meet defense orders.
“The only problem is that it is already known from whom and what they intend to take away. It will be like nationalization, which does not exist, but everyone is afraid of it. By the way, in the near future, those who have received a black mark will have their quota significantly increased, explaining it by the growing needs of the front. And when they cannot fulfill it, their property will be taken away,” military experts comment on the situation.
It seems that this practice will become ubiquitous.
The prospects for the Russian defense industry include forced unpaid labor. Criminal liability for failure to fulfill defense orders and the practice of overtime employment is a revival of the serf system.
The ICRC can’t “enforce” anything. If the ruZZian’s don’t allow it, all the ICRC can do is document and report, defund the RRC, ban them from the Org, then sue them for using the RC,
and they won’t even do that.
12.
YY_Sima Qian
On sanctions evasion, Robin Brooks at Brookings has a series of Tweets illustrating how the EU’s & everyone else’s export to Russia have continued under the sanctions regime, except now going through 3rd parties, & he uses Kyrgyzstan as the example to illustrate the point (click through the links for the charts):
I think the takeaway, Brooks’ fulminations aside, is that sanctions will always have limited effect to compel behavior change, particularly when the target is a large country w/ a large population that has both large demand (for military, civilian & dual use goods) as well as huge supply of commodities that the ROW wants & needs, & when the sanctioned dual use goods are often high volume low price commodity products where end user certification is impossible to implement & enforce.
Sanctions can be useful to the extent that they decrease supply (or at least increase the volatility of supply) to Russia, increase cost, & lengthen lead time. However, it is wishful thinking to expect sanctions to defeat Putin. That can only be done on the battlefield. Sanctions also have the medium to long term effect of encouraging everyone not a committed member of the “West” to diversify away from total dependence on Western technology, currencies & financial systems, so to keep their options open, which ultimately undermines Western & especially US hegemony. They are tools of rapidly diminishing returns. Case in point, threats of secondary sanctions on PRC financial institutions for doing business w/ Russia has caused PRC exports to Russia to peak and drop over the past several months, but PRC exports to the CARs have correspondingly gone up, & the PRC is predictably setting up/designating dedicated banks (w/ no exposure to the Western financial system & thus invulnerable to Western sanctions) to handle financial transactions w/ Russia, just as it has done w/ Iran.
BTW, Brooks has posted the linked charge multiple times, wrt the meteoric rise of Chinese exports of transportation equipment to Russia since Feb. ’22. However, I think his analysis here is wrong. The customs category he plots are for railways, cars & trucks, aircraft & ships all together. There is no evidence that the PRC has sold Russia any rail carriages (the two country have different gages), trucks, aircraft or ships, for civilian, military or dual use, even though it certainly has the industrial capacity to do so at a massive scale. PRC companies have sold parts for aircraft & trucks (for civilian, military or dual use), no reports to date of selling parts/equipment for ships.
What has happened is that a few PRC automobile companies that do not have JV tie ups w/ Western firms (Chery, Chang’an, & Geely, etc.) into the Russian civilian car market vacated by European, Japanese & South Korean firms. Much has been made recently in MSM on the PRC’s sudden emergence as an automobile exporting power over the past 3 years, 40% of that increase has been to Russia. Most of the exports to Russia are ICEs, almost all sedans & city SUVs (& thus unsuitable for use on the rugged battlefield of Ukraine). European, Japanese & South Korean autos & auto parts are still imported into Russia, through 3rd parties such as Kyrgyzstan, but at a much lower volume. The Russian consumers that used to turn their noses up at Chinese autos have discovered that the current offerings are compelling in price, performance, quality & tech. That is the story the customs data on transportation equipment is telling.
13.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Got a comment in moderation due to too many links, would appreciate it if you could wave it through.
Putin might have miscalculated w/ signing of the mutual defense treaty w/ NK.
Potentially, the material aid SK can provide to Ukraine can be much more impactful than that provided by NK to Russia. KJU doesn’t care because that just means fewer arms & munitions aimed at him. Beijing isn’t exactly thrilled w/ the Moscow-Pyongyang entente, either.
18.
YY_Sima Qian
Speaking of Beijing’s discomfort w/ the Russo-NK pact:
Russia and North Korea’s Defense Pact Is a New Headache for China The treaty raises the risk of confrontation in the region and could prompt the United States and its allies to bolster their military presence on China’s periphery. By David Pierson and Choe Sang-Hun David Pierson reported from Hong Kong, and Choe Sang-Hun reported from Seoul. June 20, 2024, 5:59 a.m. ET
1/ This piece captures well the headache that Putin’s visit to Pyongyang has created for Beijing. It also reinforces that Putin is for Putin and is not clouded by nostalgia about the PRC-Russia partnership. Here’s why (short thread):
2/ Particularly at a time of domestic challenges, Beijing prefers stability along periphery. Putin’s visit to DPRK challenged that objective. Putin pledged to provide technological support to DPRK, potentially including support for DPRK’s nuclear and missile programs…
3/ Beijing also has to worry that the new Russia-DPRK security partnership will embolden Kim Jong Un and dilute Chinese influence in North Korea. China will have even less capacity to manage escalation dynamics on the Korean Peninsula than it did before.
4/ The new DPRK-Russia upgraded relationship will give impetus to tighter US-Japan-ROK coordination, which runs counter to China’s interests. Beijing would prefer to avoid the hardening of a northern triangle (PRC-DPRK-Russia) vs. a southern triangle (US-ROK-Japan).
5/ Beijing’s official response to Putin’s visit was fairly mute. The MFA spokesperson reiterated that “the pressing task [on Korean Peninsula] is to cool down situation, avoid escalation of confrontation or rivalry, and keep to the major direction off political settlement.”
6/ Beijing also dispatched senior officials to Seoul around same time as Putin’s visit to Pyongyang. The Chinese officials held consultations with ROK officials, including a meeting with ROK Foreign Minister Cho. The simultaneity of visits was pretty striking.
7/ Bottom line – Putin’s visit to Pyongyang was not a friendly gesture to Beijing. While it may serve Putin’s interests, it does not align with Beijing’s priorities. Indeed, it runs against them. END.
19.
Cameron
20.
Jay
IDF transfers powers in occupied West Bank to pro-settler civil servants
Transfer to officials led by far-right Bezalel Smotrich removes legal checks on settlement expansion.
The Israeli military has quietly handed over significant legal powers in the occupied West Bank to pro-settler civil servants working for the far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich.
An order posted by the Israel Defense Forces on its website on 29 May transfers responsibility for dozens of bylaws at the Civil Administration – the Israeli body governing in the West Bank – from the military to officials led by Smotrich at the defence ministry.
Smotrich and his allies have long seen control of the Civil Administration, or significant parts of it, as a means of extending Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank. Their ultimate goal is direct control by central government and its ministries. The transfer reduces the likelihood of legal checks on settlement expansion and development.
Israeli politicians have long sought to find ways to permanently seize, or annex, the occupied West Bank, which it captured in 1967 and where millions of Palestinians live.
Michael Sfard, an Israeli human rights lawyer, said: “The bottom line is that [for] anyone who thought the question of annexation was foggy, this order should end any doubts. What this order does is transfers vast areas of administrative power from the military commander to Israeli civilians working for the government.”
@Jay: This might just work out – all Palestinians scrubbed from both Gaza and the West Bank prior to U.S. election; the Biden administration has already advised that it will support an attack on Hezbollah; and then it’s time to slurp up southern Lebanon. Let the good times roll.
22.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Israel must really want the WB to blow up, too, just in time for its war against Hezbollah.
Israel is hell bent on becoming a pariah State. They arn’t just coming after the West Bank, they are going after the Armenians, the Beduins, Arab-Israeli’s, Palestinian-Israeli Christians and their own Israeli dissenters.
Israel lost their first Lebanon War, eventually. They lost their last Lebanon War really quickly.
A top Israeli General admitted today, “that Hamas cannot be defeated in Gaza”.
If the IDF goes north, Israel will be broken, the IDF will be broken.
25.
Carlo Graziani
This,
Hopefully the Ukrainian authorities can get this woman the help she needs.
together Ponomarenko’s acknowledgment following the initial outrage, made me feel good. This kind of humanity—the ability to feel pity for the pitiable—is rare in war, the most dehumanizing of human experiences.
26.
westyny
Thanks, Adam. Good news about Ruthie and good news about the missile defense systems. I hope delivery can be expedited.
Comments are closed.
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Jay
Thank you, Adam.
HumboldtBlue
The Ukraine Frontline Changed – My Experience
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1803788642193649809#m
Nukular Biskits
Quick run through for me tonight, Adam.
Long day at work then lawn work at home.
Quick question regarding that strike by a MiG-29: Is Ukraine using their MiGs to attack inside Russia proper or only Russian bases/assets on Ukrainian soil?
ETA: You probably know this by now but I”m sure you appreciate actually hearing/reading it – Thanks for the good work.
dr. luba
@Jay: The totally useless ICRC visits russians soldiers in captivity, and insists on first world standards of treatment. Mordor does not allow them to visit Ukrainian soldiers, so they throw up their hands and say “what can we do?’ as Ukrainians in captivity are tortured, denied medical treatment and starved.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: Ukraine only as far as I can tell. And thank you for the kind words.
japa21
@dr. luba: Somehow I have a feeling they would be treated the same way with or without the ICRC involvement. And I am talking about Ukraine’s treatment of Russian captives.
Jay
@dr. luba:
and the ruZZian Red Cross partakes in the kidnapping, torture, adoption and “re-education” of Ukrainian children, along with military training and the ICRC refuses to investigate or pull their membership, and continues to transfer funds to the ruZZians.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1803763003654812020#m
dr. luba
@japa21: Agreed. Their being there doesn’t make much of a difference. Their visiting russian camps would.
Jay
@dr. luba:
re. ruZZian concentration camps,
The ICRC can’t “enforce” anything. If the ruZZian’s don’t allow it, all the ICRC can do is document and report, defund the RRC, ban them from the Org, then sue them for using the RC,
and they won’t even do that.
YY_Sima Qian
On sanctions evasion, Robin Brooks at Brookings has a series of Tweets illustrating how the EU’s & everyone else’s export to Russia have continued under the sanctions regime, except now going through 3rd parties, & he uses Kyrgyzstan as the example to illustrate the point (click through the links for the charts):
I think the takeaway, Brooks’ fulminations aside, is that sanctions will always have limited effect to compel behavior change, particularly when the target is a large country w/ a large population that has both large demand (for military, civilian & dual use goods) as well as huge supply of commodities that the ROW wants & needs, & when the sanctioned dual use goods are often high volume low price commodity products where end user certification is impossible to implement & enforce.
Sanctions can be useful to the extent that they decrease supply (or at least increase the volatility of supply) to Russia, increase cost, & lengthen lead time. However, it is wishful thinking to expect sanctions to defeat Putin. That can only be done on the battlefield. Sanctions also have the medium to long term effect of encouraging everyone not a committed member of the “West” to diversify away from total dependence on Western technology, currencies & financial systems, so to keep their options open, which ultimately undermines Western & especially US hegemony. They are tools of rapidly diminishing returns. Case in point, threats of secondary sanctions on PRC financial institutions for doing business w/ Russia has caused PRC exports to Russia to peak and drop over the past several months, but PRC exports to the CARs have correspondingly gone up, & the PRC is predictably setting up/designating dedicated banks (w/ no exposure to the Western financial system & thus invulnerable to Western sanctions) to handle financial transactions w/ Russia, just as it has done w/ Iran.
BTW, Brooks has posted the linked charge multiple times, wrt the meteoric rise of Chinese exports of transportation equipment to Russia since Feb. ’22. However, I think his analysis here is wrong. The customs category he plots are for railways, cars & trucks, aircraft & ships all together. There is no evidence that the PRC has sold Russia any rail carriages (the two country have different gages), trucks, aircraft or ships, for civilian, military or dual use, even though it certainly has the industrial capacity to do so at a massive scale. PRC companies have sold parts for aircraft & trucks (for civilian, military or dual use), no reports to date of selling parts/equipment for ships.
What has happened is that a few PRC automobile companies that do not have JV tie ups w/ Western firms (Chery, Chang’an, & Geely, etc.) into the Russian civilian car market vacated by European, Japanese & South Korean firms. Much has been made recently in MSM on the PRC’s sudden emergence as an automobile exporting power over the past 3 years, 40% of that increase has been to Russia. Most of the exports to Russia are ICEs, almost all sedans & city SUVs (& thus unsuitable for use on the rugged battlefield of Ukraine). European, Japanese & South Korean autos & auto parts are still imported into Russia, through 3rd parties such as Kyrgyzstan, but at a much lower volume. The Russian consumers that used to turn their noses up at Chinese autos have discovered that the current offerings are compelling in price, performance, quality & tech. That is the story the customs data on transportation equipment is telling.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Got a comment in moderation due to too many links, would appreciate it if you could wave it through.
WaterGirl
@YY_Sima Qian: Approved!
YY_Sima Qian
@WaterGirl: Thank you!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
Putin might have miscalculated w/ signing of the mutual defense treaty w/ NK.
Potentially, the material aid SK can provide to Ukraine can be much more impactful than that provided by NK to Russia. KJU doesn’t care because that just means fewer arms & munitions aimed at him. Beijing isn’t exactly thrilled w/ the Moscow-Pyongyang entente, either.
YY_Sima Qian
Speaking of Beijing’s discomfort w/ the Russo-NK pact:
Here is a summary by Ryan Hass of Brookings:
Cameron
Jay
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/20/idf-transfers-powers-in-occupied-west-bank-to-pro-settler-civil-servants
Harrison Wesley
@Jay: This might just work out – all Palestinians scrubbed from both Gaza and the West Bank prior to U.S. election; the Biden administration has already advised that it will support an attack on Hezbollah; and then it’s time to slurp up southern Lebanon. Let the good times roll.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Israel must really want the WB to blow up, too, just in time for its war against Hezbollah.
Jay
@Cameron:
Poland’s new tanks, arty and SP guns are South Korean made in South Korea with a co-production agreement with Poland for ongoing deliveries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_industry_of_South_Korea
Jay
@Harrison Wesley:
@YY_Sima Qian:
By Menachem Klein November 28, 2023
https://www.972mag.com/hamas-fatah-elections-israel-arrogance/
Israel is hell bent on becoming a pariah State. They arn’t just coming after the West Bank, they are going after the Armenians, the Beduins, Arab-Israeli’s, Palestinian-Israeli Christians and their own Israeli dissenters.
Israel lost their first Lebanon War, eventually. They lost their last Lebanon War really quickly.
A top Israeli General admitted today, “that Hamas cannot be defeated in Gaza”.
If the IDF goes north, Israel will be broken, the IDF will be broken.
Carlo Graziani
This,
together Ponomarenko’s acknowledgment following the initial outrage, made me feel good. This kind of humanity—the ability to feel pity for the pitiable—is rare in war, the most dehumanizing of human experiences.
westyny
Thanks, Adam. Good news about Ruthie and good news about the missile defense systems. I hope delivery can be expedited.