Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Celebrate the fucking wins.

Fight them, without becoming them!

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

Republicans do not pay their debts.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Giving up is unforgivable.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

White supremacy is terrorism.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 850: The Butcher’s Bill from this Morning’s Attack

War for Ukraine Day 850: The Butcher’s Bill from this Morning’s Attack

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing fine. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

As I start writing tonight’s update, at 8:00 PM EDT/3:01 AM in Ukraine, air raid alerts are up over Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts.

Here’s the butcher’s bill from this morning’s attacks on Ukraine:

Russia then hit Kharkiv again today:

Russian terrorists have struck Kharkiv with guided aerial bombs again. Unfortunately, a residential building was hit.

The debris is being cleared. All necessary services are on the scene. As of now, there are 19 wounded and 3 dead. My condolences to everyone who lost their loved ones.

This Russian terror with guided aerial bombs must and can be stopped. Bold decisions from our partners are needed so that we can destroy Russian terrorists and Russian combat aircraft where they are.

We have already proved that it is possible to protect people’s lives from missile terror, particularly by clearing the border areas of terrorist launchers. Protection against bombs is required as well. We need this determination.

I thank everyone who helps Ukraine protect lives!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Are Working to the Maximum to Give Ukraine the Capability to Fully Respond to Russian Terror – Address by the President

22 June 2024 – 19:44

Dear Ukrainians!

Currently, in Kharkiv, the clearing of rubble at the site of the Russian bomb attack is still ongoing. Four guided aerial bombs hit the city—this is calculated terror. One of the bombs destroyed a residential building in the central part of the city, near the bus station. As of now, more than 40 people in the city were reported injured. All are receiving necessary assistance. Three people in Kharkiv were killed by today’s strikes. My condolences to their families and loved ones. The rescue operation is complicated due to the collapse of the building’s structures. However, the rescuers from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, local services, and everyone involved are doing everything possible to help people. Similarly, we are working to the maximum to give Ukraine the capability to fully respond to such Russian terror. Since the beginning of this June alone, Russians have used more than 2,400 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine already, about 700 of which were targeted at the Kharkiv region – against our positions, our cities, and communities in the Kharkiv region.

Such Russian strikes are also being carried out in the Donetsk region and other frontline and border regions – on a daily basis. Ukraine needs the necessary forces and means to destroy the carriers of these bombs, particularly Russian combat aviation wherever it is. This step is needed. I am grateful to all partners, grateful to America for a strong decision that helped us stabilize the situation in the Kharkiv border region – we gained the ability to destroy Russian missile launchers near the border and concentrations of Russian occupiers. Such decisions need to be continued. The significant reduction in Russian missile terror against Kharkiv and the region proves that it is entirely possible to protect our cities and communities from Russian bombs. That is why modern air defense systems for Ukraine – Patriots – and the acceleration of training of our pilots for F-16s, and, most importantly, the sufficient range of our weapons are truly necessary. Necessary for the protection of lives – and solely for this purpose. I thank everyone in the world who supports us in this. Russian terror must be defeated, and this is in the interest of everyone who wants to live in a world without war, which terrorists always spread whenever they are not defeated. Today, I heard reports from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov regarding the provision for our forces and supplies from partners. The Commander-in-Chief and the Minister also reported on their contacts with partners and our expectations. We are grateful for the approved packages, but we need them fully and on the battlefield – without delays. And everything we agreed upon with President Biden must be implemented.

I would also like to recognize the rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine – the entire staff of the Service, everyone who works to save as many lives as possible. In all regions, in every city. Thank you! Kharkiv region – Mykhailo Tebenev, Ivan Lobanov, Oleksandr Omelianenko, Oleksandr Mazur and Yuriy Matsayenko have particularly distinguished themselves these weeks. Thank you, guys! And also Kyiv region – fire and rescue units of the region – Yaroslav Brovchenko, Oleksandr Borozenets, Bohdan Kachenko, Serhiy Nedilko, Tymofiy Vyshnia. I thank you and all the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, all local services that work for people, every police officer and volunteer who helps.

And one more thing.

Donetsk region. Our warriors. Pokrovsk direction, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Kramatorsk. Very tough battles and dozens of Russian assaults every day. I am grateful to every soldier, sergeant and officer who defend our positions and hold back the occupier. I thank all our warriors for their strength!

Glory to Ukraine!

You don’t understand — Russia was provoked into degrading into being a oligarchic dictatorship obsessed with war, territorial grabs, and Stalinist revanchism, then it was provoked into spending over a decade in an economic war on Ukraine and indoctrinating its population with hateful propaganda (a.k.a. “Ukrainians are Nazis and not a real country”), then it was provoked into annexing part of Ukraine’s territory and inciting and sponsoring a war in Ukraine’s east, then it was provoked into concentrating the largest regional military grouping against Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, it was also provoked into openly laughing in the face of a half of the West begging Putin not to invade Ukraine and not sending Ukraine any aid to avoid ‘provoking Russia’, thus Russia was provoked into unleashing the largest European war of aggression since WWII and, due to its very sudden failure to seize Kyiv, it was provoked into massacring the people of Ukraine, derailing all talks via knowingly unacceptable demands, and launching a devastating years-long war to erase dozens of Ukrainian cities from the earth’s face and bomb Ukraine into the cold and dark due to the war’s extremely unsatisfying results more than 2 years after, with some at least some 200,000 military dead on both sides and possibly tens of thousands of civilian fatalities.

You don’t understand, it’s all because Russia just couldn’t stand Ukraine unreasonably seeking to join NATO after everything it has done to Ukraine after 2014, although Russia was more than fine with NATO standing at its border for 20 years in the Baltics and with Finland joining NATO, too — you just have to understand that if Ukraine had joined NATO at some point, Russia would have been restricted in its god-given right to invade and subjugate it as it pleases, it’s not that Ukrainians are a people and have a say over their own lives, I’m a linguistics professor and I know better what’s better for them savages, you know, you don’t understand.

More from Kharkiv:

The moment of the russian terrorist strike on a building in Kharkiv.
There are currently 2 people killed and 37 injured.

This bomb was launched by russian aviation.

If @POTUS had allowed Ukraine to strike russian airfields with ATACMS, this attack on Kharkiv might not have happened.

Lives could have been protected.
Lives must be protected.
It’s time to stop the terror!

For want of a nail.

The Kharkiv front:

Here’s the full video:

And it’s description (machine translated):

Eyes and Sting: express test of a wormy BZVP, two lairs of fpv pilots and iron.
Kharkiv region on the front line

Quiet and calm,

МАДЯР🇺🇦 22.06.24 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Bukhanka graveyard on the Kharkiv front:

“The cutting of Russian logistical routes is probably one of the key reasons why Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region got bogged down. In one photo there are 5 burnt Bukhankas. The whole road is about 15 km and you can take dozens of similar photos on it.

Thanks to the successful operation of drones, Russians are sitting in tree lines and forests with a minimum of ammunition, food and water. There were cases when we destroyed a moped with which Russians tried to bring a pack of 6 bottles of water to the position.”

https://t.me/gostrikartuzy/414

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast:

The infamous ‘road of death’ for the Russian occupiers near Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region. The location is perfectly targeted by our soldiers, but Putin’s troops stubbornly continue to advance in senseless assaults with one known end.

A Russian tank moved to support the assault on Ukrainian positions but was stopped and burned by a kamikaze drone, and its headless crew was left lying on the battlefield forever.

📹: 79th Separate Tavrian Air Assault Brigade

Russian occupied Sea of Azov:

Not quite sure where in Russian occupied Ukraine or Russia this is:

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Russian military airfield, Yesak, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

46Comments

  1. 1.

    Chris

    You don’t understand — Russia was provoked into degrading into being a oligarchic dictatorship obsessed with war, territorial grabs, and Stalinist revanchism, then it was provoked into spending over a decade in an economic war on Ukraine and indoctrinating its population with hateful propaganda (a.k.a. “Ukrainians are Nazis and not a real country”), then it was provoked into annexing part of Ukraine’s territory and inciting and sponsoring a war in Ukraine’s east, then it was provoked into concentrating the largest regional military grouping against Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, it was also provoked into openly laughing in the face of a half of the West begging Putin not to invade Ukraine and not sending Ukraine any aid to avoid ‘provoking Russia’, thus Russia was provoked into unleashing the largest European war of aggression since WWII and, due to its very sudden failure to seize Kyiv, it was provoked into massacring the people of Ukraine, derailing all talks via knowingly unacceptable demands, and launching a devastating years-long war to erase dozens of Ukrainian cities from the earth’s face and bomb Ukraine into the cold and dark due to the war’s extremely unsatisfying results more than 2 years after, with some at least some 200,000 military dead on both sides and possibly tens of thousands of civilian fatalities.

    Ukraine is Russia’s abused child that got the hell out of Smallville the minute he turned 18, moved to the big city, figured out he was gay, started a happy family with his husband, got a good job, pulls in more money in a month now than the rest of the family does in a year, and never calls anymore or lets them meet his new family because nothing good’s going to come of that.

    Russia’s reacting exactly the way the parents would, or at least the way they wish they could.  No one in the family is allowed to succeed, damn it.  Not without them.  Certainly not with somebody else.

    Russia remains the world’s biggest red state.

  2. 2.

    Bill Arnold

    Re that video of a Ukrainian FPV drone inspection and destruction of a Russian FPV drone base, what is the etymology of BadaBoom? (Is it Italian?)

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    I’m gonna get cleaned up and rack out.

    I may or may not check back in depending on how quickly I fall asleep.

  8. 8.

    Martin

    I still can’t get over Israels efficiency at killing civilians and Russias inefficiency at doing it. They are both horrific, but you would think given the accuracy of Israels stuff and the wests desire that Israel would adopt the western doctrine of minimization of civilian lives they must be deliberately failing to do the job they are expected to do contrasted to the sheer scale of Russias weapons and their doctrine of targeting civilians they are failing just as equally in the other direction.

    What a bunch of fuckups and what a waste of human effort and lives.

  11. 11.

    Martin

    @Adam L Silverman: Yeah, I’ve read that. I don’t think you need to hear that there is no fucking way that machine learning is capable of picking targets in any meaningful way in the way described (spotting a S-400 site from a satellite image is a different matter – AI is fucking great at that). Someone made a lot of money selling Israel a bunch of buzzwords.

    But even given a target selection, why the arbitrary destruction? Why not a targeted effort? Like, I have no problem with Israel putting a bullet in the back of the head of every 10/7 participant. Like, not great, but fine, I get it. Why take out 100 of that persons neighbors in the process unless you assign zero value to their lives which is a question that answers itself.

  12. 12.

    Bill Arnold

    @Adam L Silverman:
    And that could account, perversely, for the high numbers of militant adult men that Israel has claimed to kill. Normally, random destruction of residences would result in a ratio of dead/injured men/women/children similar to the population.
    Targeting fighters (or rather, phones of suspected fighters or of their associates) while their families are with them, maybe sleeping (family extermination as a policy), would skew the ratio to include more fighters than the 30k/600k (fighters/adult males in Gaza) ratio with random death-sampling would suggest.
    Also,
    – Ukraine has a working civil defense system, including air raid warnings, and also a layered air defense system (except near the border).
    – Gaza civilians have no civil defense at all; Israelis have destroyed any such defenses, death from above usually has no warning, and the Gaza civilian medical system has been severely damaged so many injured become dead due to lack of medical/trauma care.

  16. 16.

    wjca

    @Martin: Israel has so far been classifying every adult male as a Hamas fighter.

    Not to mention working very hard to motivate every adult male Palestinian to become a Hamas fighter.  If you’re going to be killed anyway, why not join the resistance?

    Rather a self-fulfilling approach.

  18. 18.

    Yutsano

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​I’m certain Netanyahu’s definition of “Hamas” includes the adult population of Gaza. For Ben-Gvir* it includes every man, woman, and child regardless of age. And if Ben-Gvir and Smitrovich could get their way, every Palestinian in the West Bank would get the same fate. People who want absolute dominion aren’t troubled by little things like genocide and war crimes. Their purpose is a pure homeland for the Jewish people. The Palestinians are in the way and must be removed like pests.

  19. 19.

    Jay

    (((Tendar)))
    @Tendar
    14h
    The Ukrainian Army released an extensive video of the infamous Russian turtle tanks. They are far worse than expected.

    Underneath that garbage is an old T-62M. The gun is not operational, there is no ammunition and the turret is locked in place. The panels are sheet metal removed from all kinds of scrap metal. Visibility is expectedly atrocious. The engine burns like it is running on coal and you can hear them miles away. Worst of all, that pile of Russian scrap metal was taken out by drones, so by something they supposedly should be protected, so even the EW component is apparently rubbish.

    I have covered several wars where rebels or weaker factions were forced to improvise with what they got, but I have rarely seen something so utterly terrible than this Russian thing. Remember, when it comes to logistics then there is no difference in transporting a T-90M or this. Both eat up space, time and manpower. In many cases you have to make them even barely work before sending to the front. It is relatively wasteful. You would never do anything like this unless you are absolutely desperate.

    The fact that Russia has to resort to haul literal garbage is so telling and reveals once more in what condition the Russian army and logistics behind it is. It also proves that the longer this war goes on, the weaker the quality of the Russian army becomes (which btw. was never really good in the first place). They have to dig deeper in their rotting storage facilities and deploy literal garbage.
    Jun 22, 2024 · 1:46 PM UTC

    https://nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1804511198362079375#m

    7 minute video at the link.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Yutsano: Adam has recommended following Younis Tirawi before, he has been meticulously documenting actions & speech by IDF personnel, in Gaza & the WB. This is far beyond Bibi, Ben-Gvir & Smotrich. Numerous individuals serving in the IDF, officers & enlisted, have proudly broadcast their support for war crimes, crimes against humanity, & genocide, all over Twitter & Instagram. The casual sadism on constantly on display rivals that of Russian troops & convicts in Ukraine.

    What is telling is that there has been little effort by any part of the Israeli natsec apparatus to censure & punish such speech & actions, despite them being transparently counterproductive to official Israeli narrative toward the West. Israel does not expect any of the more significant Western governments (the US, Germany, France, the UK, Japan, etc.) to hold it to account, & it is probably correct in this assessment.

    The Biden Administration is backing the upcoming Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, having tried everything in its power over the past several months to prevent the War in Gaza from spreading into a regional conflict, w/ partial success. What is Israel’s end game in the north? How would the US act now to manage the risk of expansion of the conflict? Is there a tacit understanding w/ Iran not to escalate even as the IDF rolls into southern Lebanon to hit Hezbollah? How would the IDF fare better now than in 1982 & 2006?

  22. 22.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin: There have been plenty of charlatans who have sold fantastical visions of AI’s use in warfare to the US DOD, probably some of the same ones who have sold it to Israel. It was the fear that the PRC might leap ahead of the US in adopting AI in warfare that provided impetus for the Biden Administration to significantly escalate the tech war against the PRC & restrict the access of all Chinese firms (civilian, dual use & military) to semiconductors made w/ advanced nodes (SOCs, GPUs & memory). Quite a few of the strongest proponents (such as Eric Schmidt formerly of Google, the folks behind Palantir & Oracle, etc.) stood to make massive financial gains having invested into military AI startups that they helped to steer DOD contracts to.

    Well, there is now a new comprehensive study of the PLA’s attitude toward AI in warfare, the picture is predictably nuanced & not at all the fantastical & apocalyptic as painted by the proponents of the tech war. Many of the challenges that the PLA faces are the same as that faced by the US, Israel & likely everyone else. Never mind that the escalating tech war is having & will continue to have cascading negative impact in global peace, economic development/prosperity, & empowerment of techno-authoritarians everywhere.

    China’s Military AI Roadblocks
    PRC Perspectives on Technological Challenges to Intelligentized Warfare

    Sam Bresnick

    June 2024

    China’s leadership believes that artificial intelligence will play a central role in future wars. However, the author’s comprehensive review of dozens of Chinese-language journal articles about AI and warfare reveals that Chinese defense experts claim that Beijing is facing several technological challenges that may hinder its ability to capitalize on the advantages provided by military AI. This report outlines these perceived barriers and identifies several technologies that Chinese experts believe may help the country develop and deploy military AI-enabled systems.

    Download Full Report

    Executive Summary

    China has made significant investments, and apparent progress, in military AI over the past several years. Given AI and related emerging technologies could play critical roles in future wars, the U.S. national security establishment is worried about falling behind China in developing and deploying these technologies.1 Such concerns have elicited much attention and alarm in the United States.

    It is difficult, however, to develop a comprehensive understanding of where each military stands when it comes to military AI development and adoption, let alone conduct a direct comparison between the two. Moreover, often missing from existing assessments of Chinese military AI are Chinese perspectives on their own progress, or lack thereof, in developing and fielding AI-related technologies and capabilities. This report seeks to fill that analytical gap.

    This paper outlines several of the key challenges Chinese defense experts argue China is facing regarding the development and deployment of AI and related emerging technologies. It draws on 59 Chinese-language journal articles published between 2020 and 2022 by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers or researchers, engineers in the Chinese defense industry, and academics working on AI and other emerging technologies.

    Key findings include the following:

    In keeping with the findings of previous CSET analyses, Chinese defense scholars believe that AI and other emerging technologies present China with a unique opportunity to catch up to or surpass the United States militarily.
    Many of them are concerned, however, that the PLA remains behind the U.S. military in developing and fielding AI and related emerging technologies.
    Chinese defense experts claim that the PLA is facing barriers to developing and deploying AI and related emerging technologies. The obstacles the experts highlight are similar to some of those with which the U.S. military also appears to be contending. For instance, the Chinese observers are concerned about the PLA’s ability to guarantee network and cyber security, maintain communications in future high-intensity conflicts, and develop trustworthy AI systems.
    The experts also point out issues that may be especially relevant to the PLA’s ability to effectively use AI-enabled military systems. These concerns revolve around military data collection, management, and analysis, as well as the development of high-end sensors. They also appear worried about the PLA’s insufficiently robust military standards and testing and evaluation practices. These problems, as well as those mentioned in the above paragraph, may complicate China’s path toward carrying out AI-enabled systems warfare, a key operational concept that the PLA believes would help it win future wars.
    Contrary to some U.S. discussions of China’s views of military AI, many of the Chinese experts whose arguments have been analyzed in this report voice misgivings about using insufficiently trustworthy AI systems in military contexts.2 They also express concerns about the risks of outbreaks or escalations of wars, civilian deaths, and friendly force targeting by AI-enabled military systems due to insufficiently trustworthy AI. Finally, they note that untrustworthy military AI systems may be less effective in future wars.

  23. 23.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Is there a tacit understanding w/ Iran not to escalate even as the IDF rolls into southern Lebanon to hit Hezbollah? How would the IDF fare better now than in 1982 & 2006?

    Israel lost in 2006 against Hezbollah. Israel is bogged down in Gaza, the West Bank, Israel proper.

    Hezbollah has had 18 years to build more and better fortifications, train up new cadres, acquire better and longer ranged weapons, and of course, acquire combined operations combat experience in the Syrian Civil War.

    If Israel goes north, the IDF is done for and Israel ends.

  24. 24.

    sab

    @Jay: Yes. Israel thinks it is an amazing military force, but it isn’t . It always needed Americans to bail it out when it over-stepped. And now it has a government that is contemptuous of the American political party that has always been most supportive.

  25. 25.

    Chet Murthy

    @sab: @Jay: If I were a bully who’d gotten into a fight I couldn’t win, but really -wanted- to win, I’d try to escalate the fight so that my Daddy had to come save my ass (and beat all the guys I’d antagonized), hence guaranteeing that I’d win.

    We need to end Bibi’s relevance to Israeli politics.  Bibi and all who ride in him.

  28. 28.

    Jay

    @Chet Murthy:

    The US has less ability to fight Hamas and Hezbollah than Israel has, and less intelligence info.

    Iran and Syria will stay out of it. Israel is losing support globally.

    Israel hasn’t made any new friends in the past 20 years and is quickly alienating what few friends remain.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Yeah, the USN’s munitions stockpile is already stressed by the interminable & to date fruitless campaign against the Houthis, trying but failing to deter or defeat the latter’s campaign to limit non-Russian/Chinese shipping in the Red Sea. Not going to happen unless the US goes ashore, which would just result in another quagmire, & no one else will follow the US ashore. The Biden Administration clearly does not intend to fight a land war against the Houthis, so the strike campaign will continue, to no apparent end in particular.

    As long as Hezbollah does not try to mount a significant invasion of northern Israel, the US will want to save its air & sea launched precision guided munitions for a potential Taiwan contingency, which some parts of the US DOD & US military seem convinced is coming w/in a couple of years. Such thinking has already affected US supply of certain weapons to Ukraine (such as the ATACMS).

  30. 30.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    As long as Hezbollah does not try to mount a significant invasion of northern Israel,

    Not their game plan. Hezbollah will play defense, trusting that they can decimate IDF ground incursions while the IAF and INF indescriminately bomb all of Lebanon and all Lebanese.

    With their newer missiles, they can make half of Israel uninhabital.

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Agree, I was only pointing out a hypothetical where the US might feel incline to become directly involved.

    Hezbollah has already tested out tactics that can take out/damage Iron Dome batteries.

    I get the sense that Iran & its allies (including Hamas) has been more strategic & calculating in their actions since Oct. 7.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    where the US might feel incline to become directly involved.

    As Israel has shown, airpower is useless. It’s a pro bono recruiting campaign for Hamas and Hezbollah.

    Naval power, is also useless, Gaza has been under naval blockaide for decades, one cannot blockaide Southern Lebanon.

    That leaves “boots on the ground”, ie Warcrimes and genocide.

    While the US will supply ammo, that’s as far as it goes.

    Of course, Israel fucked them selves up long before this.

    https://www.972mag.com/hamas-fatah-elections-israel-arrogance/

  34. 34.

    wjca

    @Yutsano: ​I’m certain Netanyahu’s definition of “Hamas” includes the adult population of Gaza. For Ben-Gvir* it includes every man, woman, and child regardless of age. And if Ben-Gvir and Smitrovich could get their way, every Palestinian in the West Bank would get the same fate.

    And, once that’s done, Israel’s Arab population would be prime candidates as well.

  35. 35.

    wjca

    @Jay: That leaves “boots on the ground”, ie Warcrimes and genocide.

    While the US will supply ammo, that’s as far as it goes.

    Of course, Israel fucked them selves up long before this.

    There are doubtless lots of vigorous arguments happening in US NatSec circles.  But it wouldn’t be amazing if there is a strong contingent which sees Ukraine, and defeating Russia there, as far more critical to US interests than Israel is.  Especially with the current Israeli government intent on alienating (to put it mildly) the Biden administration.

    So even ammo supplies may dry up sooner than the Israelis expect.

  36. 36.

    evodevo

    @Chris:  Reminds me of several different Eastern KY families I knew…if their kin moved to Cincy or even Mason County and got good jobs and raised their own kids.  In one case a daughter went to UK, went to med school and became a physician. The family’s response was “She got above her raisin’ “, and while not openly hostile, were stand-offish when she went home to visit.  None of the families could cope with a relative who left and did WAY better than the ones left behind, and were jealous and hostile because they did.  Clannish might begin to describe it.  It’s a mindset, and in Pootie Poot’s case it went to extremes.

    The same mindset happens with domestic abusers there, too.  They will follow an ex clear to the big city, and when the ex won’t “obey”, there’s violence.

  37. 37.

    Chris

    @evodevo:

    I’ve always figured this was at least 50% of the explanation for all the rural resentment and hatred of the cities.  It isn’t even race.  At an even more basic level than that, “the city” is their ex that divorced them, their brother that moved away, their kid that never calls anymore.

    The big city is the escape valve for people who don’t want to suffocate under the rural power structure anymore.  Heck, it’s been that way all the way back to the Middle Ages at least.  “Staft luft macht frei” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stadtluft_macht_frei

  38. 38.

    Another Scott

    @wjca: Good points.  My take, and I think Biden’s take, is slightly different.

    Ukraine is about the survival of the post-WWII international order.  The stakes are huge.  We say that we will not tolerate changing international borders by force.  We say that we we demand respect for territorial integrity, rule of law, rules of war, and all the rest.  VVP is saying none of that matters if it gets in the way of what he wants.  We have to defeat him.

    WRT to Israel, our interests are the survival of Israel as a state and the prevention of a wider war.  The stakes, objectively, are much lower.  Our policies under Biden are to encourage players to recognize the reality that Israel’s (and the Palestinians’) objectives for peace and security and economic development can only be satisfied by a two-state solution.  We’ll spend money and supply some security assistance to help that happen, but we’re not going to twist arms of allies to get them to ramp up weapons production to help Israel in the present circumstances.  We may even continue to slow-walk deliveries of already authorized weapons if Israel continues to pursue their “lebensraum” policies.

    So, if the choice is shipping stuff to Lviv or Tel Aviv, it’s easy to see which option will be picked, IMHO.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Interesting view on the sentimentality aspect of Indo-Russian & Vietnamese Russian relationship (dating back to alliances w/ the USSR during the Cold War, through some tough circumstances), beyond the cold realpolitik:

    Affectionate diplomacy & politics underestimated in West. India-Russia ties offer a lesson
    India and Vietnam won’t take an overtly transactional or unsentimental approach towards Russia. It’s the West that needs a dose of ‘affectionate politics’ in calculating Russia’s global clout.
    CHELSEA NGOC MINH NGUYEN
    05 March, 2024 12:23 pm IST

    A further Twitter thread from the author C Nguyen in light of Putin’s visit to Vietnam (click through the link for the rest of the thread):

    C Nguyen
    @CNguyenEc

    Putin’s visit to Vietnam: “Jaishankar curiously also emphasised: “Different countries and different relationships have different histories. I don’t want you to inadvertently give the impression that we are purely unsentimentally transactional, we are not.”

    …

  42. 42.

    way2blue

    I’m out of sync.  Of course.

    But a question to the commenters with professional experience related to the navigational GPS that commercial aircraft use.  That Russia has been jamming.  What exactly are the Russians doing?  And is there a way to circumvent it?  i.e., changing frequencies or something?  dGPS?  As you can see—I’m the run-of-the-mill layperson.  Albeit with roots in shipboard satellite navigation systems, pre GPS.  Thanks in advance.

  44. 44.

    Marc

    @way2blue:  But a question to the commenters with professional experience related to the navigational GPS that commercial aircraft use.  That Russia has been jamming.  What exactly are the Russians doing?

    A more generic term to use is GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System).  For commercial aircraft navigation over Europe the relevant systems includes the (US) GPS and (EU) Galileo positioning satellites, as well as the (EU) EGNOS satellite-based augmentation system (SBAS) which broadcasts GPS/Galileo correction data from geosynchronous satellites.  Certified aircraft GNSS receivers are required to have receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM), which compares the signals received from multiple GNSS and SBAS satellites to determine the overall integrity of the navigation solutions.  If the receiver detects discrepancies in the data received, it indicates that it is no longer valid for horizontal and/or vertical navigation.  If an aircraft is intending to land at a specific airport using a GNSS approach and the integrity of the navigation data is dubious, an alternative form of instrument or visual approach must be used, or the approach aborted and the aircraft must divert to an alternate airport.

    GNSS signals are very weak given the distances involved and the low power levels of the satellite transmitters.  The ability to receive valid GNSS signals can be overwhelmed by broadcasting higher power noise or data signals from ground, airborne, or space-based transmitters.  Broadcasting noise is what is generally referred to as jamming; the more complex technique of broadcasting apparently valid fake or time-delayed signals is spoofing.  The Russians are using some combination of jamming and spoofing in various areas, whether or not it is intentional, these signals also interfere with the use of GNSS landing approaches in neighboring regions.

  45. 45.

    Bill Arnold

    @elliottg:
    Classifiers can be fairly accurate. A potentially larger problem is that some alleged Israeli training slides in that 972mag “Lavender” piece suggest that they are using PU learning[1] to make decisions about assassinations, and consider 15-20 innocent deaths to be acceptable for the killing of a low-level Hamas fighter.
    If it is genuinely as described, their system is not being provided information to learn “innocence”. It is classifying a population into “should assassinate” and “maybe assassinate later” subsets. Coupled with human checks being limited to whether the target is male. Vile if so, IMO.
    [1]In PU learning, two sets of examples are assumed to be available for training: the positive set and a mixed set, which is assumed to contain both positive and negative samples, but without these being labeled as such. This contrasts with other forms of semisupervised learning, where it is assumed that a labeled set containing examples of both classes is available in addition to unlabeled samples.

  46. 46.

    way2blue

    @Marc:

    Thanks!  I was hoping there might be a real-time way to filter out the jamming/noise.  Seismology has tools to separate signal from ambient background noise—to detect small earthquakes and tectonic tremor.  GPS (GNSS) is starting to be used to quickly (in seconds) map earthquake displacements, but this requires networks of land-based, continuous (receiving) GPS stations.   Maybe a simpler approach is to address the source of the jamming (and spoofing)…

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