(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie had her fourth and final chemo treatment of round two today. She now gets two weeks off before she starts round three. According to the oncology vet Rosie is fully in remission. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, it was a very long day and I’ve got another one tomorrow. So I’m going to keep this on the shorter side.
Russia continued its bombardments today.
Explosions reported in Kharkiv! Right now, russian troops are attacking the city with glide bombs!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 24, 2024
That’s how Ukrainian children react to air raid alerts.
There have been three of them in Kyiv just tonight.
Kharkiv has been attacked by guided aerial bombs again tonight.
Our kids spend their childhood to air raid alert sounds.
📹: wla_d83_/TikTok pic.twitter.com/WpZV3zZ3cS
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2024
Russian strike on Odesa destroyed over 24,000 square meters of the warehouses of a supermarket chain.
Four people were injured.
“There was never any ammunition, weapons or shells in the warehouse. Groceries, food and non-food products were stored there – everything necessary… https://t.co/RazE9LsZEJ pic.twitter.com/vVZtowb70k
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2024
Russian strike on Odesa destroyed over 24,000 square meters of the warehouses of a supermarket chain.
Four people were injured.
“There was never any ammunition, weapons or shells in the warehouse. Groceries, food and non-food products were stored there – everything necessary for the comfortable daily life of civilian Ukrainians,” noted the Tavria V press service.
📹: Tavria V supermarket
UPD: The death toll due to the Russian attack on Pokrovsk on June 24 has risen to five. 41 people are reported injured, says Donetsk Regional Military Administration. pic.twitter.com/cehlVgiODs
— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) June 24, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Main Focus Is Currently on the Donetsk Region and Supplying Our Forces with Everything They Need – Address by the President
24 June 2024 – 20:01
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Briefly about this day.
First, there was a morning meeting with the military. The Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff, and the Minister of Defense were present. We discussed the situation in key areas, with the main focus currently on the Donetsk region and supplying our forces with everything they need. We also discussed personnel issues within the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I decided to replace the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Yuriy Sodol, with Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov. There was also a report today on the aftermath of the Russian missile strikes on Pokrovsk. Dozens of people were injured, including three children. Four people were killed. My condolences to their families and loved ones. We will definitely retaliate against this Russian attack, and our response will be totally fair.
Secondly, today I introduced a new Head of the Department of State Protection. His task is to create a new, modern structure of the Department, to ensure a new format and quality. An absolutely patriotic one.
Thirdly, I honored our warriors from the Center of Special Operations “A” of the Security Service of Ukraine with state awards of Ukraine. They are heroic men! We can be really proud of each of them. I thanked them for their strength and congratulated them on the 30th anniversary of the Center of Special Operations “A” of the Security Service of Ukraine.
Fourth, we have achieved several results today in our relations with partners. Another country, Malawi, has joined the Peace Summit communiqué. Greater African representation in global efforts for peace increases the pressure on Russia to stop this criminal aggression. The more countries and leaders that stand with us, with Ukraine, the sooner we will fully restore the power of the UN Charter.
I also want to thank the United States today for a new decision in support of our people. This timely humanitarian decision involves U.S. funding for the urgent printing of books for children in Ukraine. Three million copies, including textbooks, will be printed using Ukrainian facilities before the start of the school year. At a time when the Russian occupiers are literally burning everything, including Ukrainian culture and the infrastructure of culture and education, it is important to feel the support of our partners in this area as well. Thank you, America!
And fifth, the European Union. Final preparations are now underway for tomorrow’s extremely significant, historic event. Negotiations between Ukraine and the European Union regarding Ukraine’s accession are set to begin. This is a day Ukraine has been striving toward for decades. And now we are making it a reality – Ukraine will never be deterred from its path to a united Europe, to our common home of all European nations. A home that must be peaceful! Thank you to everyone who helps!
Glory to all who fight for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
“More than 30 oil refineries, terminals, and oil depots in Russia have already been hit,” – President Zelenskyy during the presentation of state rewards to soldiers of the SBU Special Operations Center “A.”
“For SBU drones, a distance of 1,500 kilometers is no longer a problem.… pic.twitter.com/loKcLEZCJf
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2024
More: Zelenskyy announced the latest shakeup of the country’s senior military leadership following a meeting with commanders on Monday evening.
The move to sack Sodol, who previously served as commander of the marine corps, came hours after Azov National Guard Brigade chief of…
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 24, 2024
More: Zelenskyy announced the latest shakeup of the country’s senior military leadership following a meeting with commanders on Monday evening.
The move to sack Sodol, who previously served as commander of the marine corps, came hours after Azov National Guard Brigade chief of staff Bohdan Krotevych among others accused Sodol of essentially working on behalf of Russia and blamed him for the deaths of “thousands” of Ukrainian soldiers under his command.
In the rare display of public criticism of Ukraine’s military leadership by an active-duty officer, Krotevych wrote on Telegram that he had appealed to the State Bureau of Investigations (SBI) to conduct an investigation into Sodol’s activities.
“I wrote a letter to the SBI with a call to launch an investigation against one military general who, in my opinion, has killed more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian general,” he said.
“I don’t care if they start an investigation against me, and I donʼt care if they put me in prison. I care that combatants and brigade commanders are judged for the loss of an observation post, but the general is not judged for the loss of regions and dozens of cities and the loss of thousands of soldiers,” he added.
Sodol was appointed in February, when Zelensky announced a major military reshuffle and tapped Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky to replace Gen. Valery Zaluzhny as the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces.
“More than 30 oil refineries, terminals, and oil depots in Russia have already been hit,” – President Zelenskyy during the presentation of state rewards to soldiers of the SBU Special Operations Center “A.”
“For SBU drones, a distance of 1,500 kilometers is no longer a problem. Together with the successes of our Ukrainian Armed Forces and our intelligence agencies, these are very significant results that bring a just end to this war closer for Ukraine and ensure that Russia is held accountable for everything it has done against Ukraine and our people in a real, tangible, painful way,” the President said.
Glory to Ukrainian Defenders!
The cost:
Estonian volunteer Martin Jaeger, who fought in the ranks of the 3rd Assault Brigade, died defending Ukraine in Luhansk region.
Martin Jaeger, 42, was a professional soldier in the Estonian army: he was part of
an elite unit for more than 10 years and had participated in a… pic.twitter.com/8FVz2bGOq3— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2024
Estonian volunteer Martin Jaeger, who fought in the ranks of the 3rd Assault Brigade, died defending Ukraine in Luhansk region.
Martin Jaeger, 42, was a professional soldier in the Estonian army: he was part of
an elite unit for more than 10 years and had participated in a mission in Afghanistan since 2013. He came to fight in Ukraine more than a year ago, and during this time, he has been in different units. He joined the Third Assault Brigade about a month ago.Martin Jaager the third Estonian who died defending Ukraine: Ivo Jurak died in Ukraine in March 2023 and Tanel Kriggul – in September.
Eternal memory and eternal glory to fallen Warrior. Ukraine will never forget your sacrifice.
The US:
.@JakeSullivan46 says @USAID will help Ukraine print more than 3mn textbooks ahead of the coming school year after a Russian strike in May destroyed a Kharkiv printing house pic.twitter.com/xDtcXR71Gp
— Felicia Schwartz (@felschwartz) June 24, 2024
The EU:
EU to use legal loophole to bypass Hungary’s veto on using Russian assets to support Ukraine
Chief diplomat @JosepBorrellF told @FT that because Budapest abstained on a vote to raise the money, it “should not be part of the decision to use this money”
— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) June 24, 2024
The Financial Times has the details:
The EU has devised a legal workaround to sidestep Hungary’s veto on buying weapons for Ukraine with the profits generated by Russia’s frozen assets this year, in a move that could also clear the way for the G7 to pay $50bn to Kyiv.
EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell told the Financial Times that since Hungary abstained from an earlier agreement to set aside the proceeds from Russia’s frozen assets, it “should not be part of the decision to use this money”.
He added that the workaround, which on Monday released up to €1.4bn to purchase military equipment for Kyiv, was “as sophisticated as every legal decision, but it flies”.
Bypassing Budapest this way could also remove a hurdle that could complicate G7 efforts to raise a $50bn loan for Kyiv by December — designed to be paid off by the future proceeds — a decision taken by leaders at a summit in Italy earlier this month.
Assets worth about €210bn are immobilised in the EU, the bulk of which is in Belgium — and the bloc earlier this year agreed to use the profits generated as of February to buy arms for Ukraine.
Hungary, the EU’s most pro-Russian member state, has long argued against the 27-country bloc collectively providing military support to Ukraine. Budapest is also blocking seven other decisions related to arming Kyiv, worth about €6.6bn.
The legal workaround was not challenged by EU foreign ministers at a meeting in Luxembourg on Monday. It could also be crucial for the G7 deal to work and for the $50bn loan to be issued by the end of the year. Under the G7 plan, the profits generated by Russia’s frozen assets from next year will be spent on paying off the loan.
Hungary’s foreign minister Péter Szijjártó did not strongly object when the details of the legal workaround were presented at the meeting, according to two people briefed on the private discussions.
That has raised hopes among other ministers that Budapest would not consider its own legal options to block it, the people added.
But some capitals are concerned about the legal basis used for the loophole, officials said, and the potential precedent it could set for other issues where Brussels could circumvent potential vetoes.
Szijjártó told reporters on Monday: “The pro-war hysteria continues . . . Many governments are preparing for a long war, and the commandments ‘we must act faster for Ukraine, we must do more for Ukraine’ have been constant.”
On blocking seven other decisions related to arming Kyiv, worth about €6.6bn, he said: “Instead of arms shipments, we are advocating a ceasefire.”
Concerns from the US and other G7 partners over Hungary likely blocking an EU decision to keep the Russian assets immobilised indefinitely caused significant delays in the negotiation over the $50bn loan. The legal workaround for the EU use of proceeds is likely to suffice in guaranteeing the payout of the loan, according to officials familiar with the matter.
However, Hungary could still block EU sanctions under which Russian assets are blocked, a decision that needs to be renewed unanimously every six months by the EU’s 27 countries, officials said.
More at the link.
The Mariinka front:
Video of the Russian attack on the Mariinka front repelled by the 33rd Brigade of Ukraine:
“Early in the morning, the enemies tried to attack Ukrainian lines.
Additional protection, EW and anti drone cages did not save Russian equipment from damage. In particular, our ATGM… pic.twitter.com/LeXgq9lRre
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 24, 2024
Video of the Russian attack on the Mariinka front repelled by the 33rd Brigade of Ukraine:
“Early in the morning, the enemies tried to attack Ukrainian lines.
Additional protection, EW and anti drone cages did not save Russian equipment from damage. In particular, our ATGM operators worked effectively – they hit 5 pieces of equipment. Unfinished armor was finally stopped by drone drops.
Our fighters were able to destroy:
🔸 3 tanks
🔸 1 BMPDamaged:
🔸 2 tanksAnd also reduced the presence of the Russian contingent:
🔸 Killed – 5
🔸 Injured- 4”
For you drone enthusiasts:
Dream team for such a filming, especially with Russian drones frequently detected overhead pic.twitter.com/VFBL25KHqj
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 24, 2024
Moscow:
There are some major changes coming to the FSB. Mark Galeotti has the details and subject matter expert analysis:
Col. Gen. Sergei Beseda, head of the FSB’s 5th Service, retires
A thread on what I think this means. 1/Сергей Беседа покинул пост руководителя пятой службы ФСБ, его место занял Алексей Комков — источники «Важных историй»По словам наших собеседников, Беседа стал советником директора ФСБ Александра Бортниковаhttps://storage.googleapis.com/istories/news/2024/06/22/sergei-beseda-pokinul-post-rukovoditelya-pyatoi-sluzhbi-fsb-yego-mesto-zanyal-aleksei-komkov-istochniki-vazhnikh-istorii/index.htmlJust a reminder: the 5th Service, the Operational Info & International Relations Service, has other duties but especially runs agents in ex-Soviet countries and as such was meant to have a massive network in Ukraine, that largely failed to materialise in 2022 2/
The Kaleidoscopic Campaigning of Russia’s Special ServicesRussia’s operations against Ukraine have involved the full spectrum of its special services. Understanding the role each service plays is vital if the West is to counter their malign influence.https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/kaleidoscopic-campaigning-russias-special-servicesFirst of all, despite the reporting, I don’t actually think this is ‘punishment’ for his failures around the start of the Ukraine war. Revenge may be a dish best served cold, but 28 months later seems a tad too cold 3/Rather, it is that he has reached the compulsory retirement age of 70 and although he could stay in post by presidential decree, where his failings come in is in that he doesn’t have the political capital to get that, even if he wants to 4/Besides, he is not out in the cold, but is appointed an adviser to the director of the FSB, a usual sinecure. Had the govt wanted to signal displeasure, it would have foregone this courtesy. 5/What’s important is that Beseda’s replacement is Alexei Komkov, who is a client of FSB 1st Dep Director Sergei Korolev and former head of FSB’s Internal Security (ie: he knows where the bodies are buried). 6/
Korolev has been meant to take over for years, his elevation stymied by a scandal, the war (and Putin’s dislike of churn in the security agency management, but also a strong ‘stop Korolev’ camp, including Beseda 7/With Beseda gone, and Alexei Sedov, head of the 2ndService (2nd FSB service (political security and counter-terrorism ) turning 70 in August (assuming he survives the current Dagestan crisis), Korolev is likely to have the power base he needs 8/Besides, 73-year-old Bortnikov is ill and for years has been wanting to retire. This year, surely, he’ll be granted release by Putin, and presumably Korolev will take his place. 9/As I wrote back in 2021, Korolev will be a dangerous FSB director, active, ruthless, smart and with organised crime connections 10/
He may well be even more dangerous for surviving dissidents at home and abroad, not least as he will have something to prove. However, for a little silver lining… 11/…this also marks the rise of a newer generation of security chiefs who do not have a personal relationship with Putin. They are not of his era, not necessarily of his mindset. Not for a minute is Korolev a liberal, but would he go to the wall for Putin? I’m not so sure. 12/end
1. An extremely unpopular high-ranking military commander with a notoriously gruesome service record gets promoted because he’s got connections or because, very often, getting such a character a new assignment with a promotion is the only way to get rid of him.
2. He gets…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 24, 2024
1. An extremely unpopular high-ranking military commander with a notoriously gruesome service record gets promoted because he’s got connections or because, very often, getting such a character a new assignment with a promotion is the only way to get rid of him.
2. He gets promoted in this way, again and again, striking terror into entire units under his command over his leadership style and deadly practices.
3. The situation heats up so wildly that popular young mid-ranking battlefield leaders go public nationwide and seek disclosure and support from the media and the nation.
4. The Zelensky administration, amid yet another scandal, gives its reaction and *sometimes* removes the unpopular high-ranking general and gives him another assignment, optionally with yet another promotion.
5. Repeat with another problem that devours this country from the inside.
Ukraine is a country that lives making “two steps forward and one step back” all the time.
And indeed, this nation survives and, in a brutal war of annihilation, tries to win a chance for the future thanks to men and women who make a difference against all odds, again and again, every single day.
Kudos to Ukraine’s Azov Brigade chief executive officer @BohdanKrotevych for his heroic stand, one of his many in this damned war.
Also, Moscow:
The fire in Moscow region has spread to 4,000 square meters, Russian Telegram channels report. https://t.co/LbSUsuSKS8 pic.twitter.com/sfd0d0gIlw
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2024
Yesyk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
Claims regarding the aftermath of the recent Ukrainian strike on Yeysk (see thread attached:
“On June 21, 2024, a strike was carried out on the military training ground of the 726th Air Defense Training Center (military unit 33859, Yeysk) in the Krasnodar Region of Russia.
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 24, 2024
Claims regarding the aftermath of the recent Ukrainian strike on Yeysk (see thread attached:
“On June 21, 2024, a strike was carried out on the military training ground of the 726th Air Defense Training Center (military unit 33859, Yeysk) in the Krasnodar Region of Russia.
The training center is engaged in training and preparing military personnel to use various types of UAVs.
The strike was carried out by two cruise missiles of an unidentified type (probably R-360 Neptune).
The death of instructors and technical personnel from Yelabuga (employees of the plant that produces and maintains the analogue of the Iranian “Shahed-136” – “Geran-2”) is reported. Surnames of the killed instructors: Gunya, Sadreev, Kazhanov.
According to the source, destroyed:
• “Shahed-136”/“Geran-2” – 20 units;
• “Lancet” loitering munition – 50 units;
• Reconnaissance UAV “ZALA” – 40 units.There is no information about casualties among military personnel.“
Before we finish, I want to switch gears really quick and include this clip of Christiane Amanpour interviewing Rear Admiral (ret) Ami Ayalon. RADM Ayalon is both a former director of Shin Bet and a former Chief of Naval Operations. This is important because one of Ayalon’s successors at Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, both joined one of the largest protests over the weekend, but also addressed the crowd calling for Bibi’s removal and new elections.
“If we shall not end the occupation, we shall not have security,” warns Ami Ayalon, former head of Shin Bet, “and if we shall not end this occupation, we shall not have democracy.”
In an extraordinarily candid interview, Israel’s former internal security chief condemns what he… pic.twitter.com/tUplALZY3G
— Christiane Amanpour (@amanpour) June 24, 2024
If you want to see more of Ayalon and Diskin, as well as four of the former directors of Shin Bet, here they are in The Gatekeepers documentary:
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
Two cute gingers in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/wX0dcYeSE9
— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) June 23, 2024
Who wants to hear the story of new saved baby ? ) pic.twitter.com/QrrzzJcZ4o
— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) June 18, 2024
Turn up the sound on this video and listen to this little badass Ukrainian kitten as she is rescued. The life force in her! 💙💛💙 https://t.co/HgcAGxDAFW
— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) June 20, 2024
#Liptsi . The story of the Shepherd Jessica, rescued by our #military
Jessica was adopted by military #volunteers. “We regularly work on the #frontline, we see animals there, see their condition. We wanted to help at least one of them”.
PayPal: [email protected]#war pic.twitter.com/Y6ebOZqiiH
— Animal Rescue Kharkiv 🇺🇦 (@AnimalRescueKh) June 24, 2024
Open thread!
YY_Sima Qian
Good to see prominent [former] members of the Israeli natsec apparatus being explicit about the stakes for Israel’s future. This has been obvious for decades, hence the impetus for Oslo & the negotiations during the Obama years, but seems to have been said less often in the past 8 years or so. Not sure the majority of Israelis agree at this point (they seem to agree on wanting Bibi gone), what it has to restart from somewhere.
Another Scott
Relatedly, I heard most of a BBC World Service interview with Ami Ayalon (7:52) on the radio this morning.
Sensible arguments. It would be nice if Israeli voters thought the same way on these issues.
Thanks Adam, and everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Ami Ayalon wrote a long piece Haaretz published in January that is well worth reading. It provides a good historical review, and his analysis of the miltary and political situation could have been written yesterday.
I encountered the piece through Middle East Eye’s Istanbul bureau chief, Ragip Soylu. He described it as “Must read” and reposted almost all of it, an unusual move for Soylu.
Another Scott
In other news, … ABC.net.AU:
More at the link.
It will be interesting to see the actual official details – there are flurries of posts with various spins (just about every side is claiming victory!) flying now.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Glad that Rosie is doing well.
Jay
ruZZia and the usual suspects are blaming the US for civilian casualties on a beach in Crimea, calling it a war crime,
meanwhile:
https://nitter.poast.org/20gimsack/status/1805109527718604904#m
Turns out, it was another “unplanned, unscheduled, rapid disassembly” by a ruZZian S-300 AD missile.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I did read that piece. I do not recall him putting the stakes in so stark terms then, even though these were standard arguments made by Clinton & Obama administrations to Israel.
wjca
Somehow, Ukraine manages to run recon drones deep into Russia, to confirm the targets for their attack drones. Yet Russia can’t identify targets as close (to occupied Crimea) as Odessa.
Tony G
Odesa (for example) is one of the Ukrainian cities that has a sizable ethnic Russian population, and it has been under heavy bombardment by the thugs of the Russian military. Apparently more than 49% of the population of Odesa is of Russia ethnicity. Fake leftists (e.g., Chris Hedges) really need to step up their game to explain to the world exactly how this “special military operation” (that began 28 months ago) is “protecting ethnic Russians” in Ukraine.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Ayalon laid out the political and mlitary impasse as of January, and it is no more resolved now than it was then. And he warned that Israel’s current path could lead it to civil war, a prospect which seems to be getting closer and closer. His message may now be more urgant because of the imminent war in the North.
Jay
@wjca:
Ukraine has strategic goals for winning the war.
ruZZia’s only goal is genocide.
Tony G
@wjca: I wonder whether the sheer incompetence of the Russian military in this “special military operation” (that bullshit phrase) represents a degradation since the victorious Soviet military of 1941-1945, or whether the Soviets won the Great Patriotic War because of massive resource in spite of incompetence. I don’t pretend to know the answer to that question.
Another Scott
@Tony G: Kamil Galeev said in one of his very long Twitter threads that the USSR/Russia won their part of WWII because of US and western support. He made similar arguments about other wars.
Threadreader version.
Is he right? Dunno. But he makes a good case.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Tony G:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina#:~:text=Manifestations%20of%20dedovshchina%20in%20the,often%20causing%20serious%20bodily%20harm
And then, there is the corruption.
HumboldtBlue
Carlo Graziani
@Tony G: In my opinion, it’s a mistake to analogize modern Russian warmaking to that of the USSR.
The key thing to focus on concerning the Soviet Union is that in a very real sense, Marxism-Leninism was a Theory of War, which owed a substantial (unacknowledged) intellectual debt to Clausewitz (*).
This philosophical outlook informed the structure of Soviet society and governance at the foundational level. It meant that the USSR was, throughout its history, a nation on the verge of war mobilization, which ran its economy on the basis of prioritizing military requirements at all times, and which infused its population to the maximum extent practical with an expectation of wartime emergency, even in times of peace. As a result of this, the USSR was capable even in its moments of greatest weakness of generating terrifying levels of combat power. Contra the idea that their victory over the Nazis owed everything to Lend-Lease (as per Galeev via @Another Scott: above), the Red Army succeeded in stopping the Germans cold (pun only slightly intended) and repulsing them in front of Moscow, in December 1941, well before U.S. aid could have a significant impact on the outcome. That was a quarter-Century of Soviet readiness, responding effectively in spite of conspicuous command incompetence.
Modern Russia has nothing to compare to its Soviet antecedents. Putin has spent the past near-quarter-Century selling “normalcy’ and economic prosperity to the Russian public, and did nothing to prepare for a massive land war with what turned out to be, against expectations, a near-peer adversary in Ukraine. The great Russian post-2022 mobilization was, and is, a haphazard affair of recruitment among non-Russian Oblasts where soldiering is a viable alternative to economic despair. There is no ideological driver in any way comparable to Marxism-Leninism—almost nobody who fights does so out of a Putinist belief in Russian Manifest Destiny. Modern Russia has been able to muster some mass in proportion to its population, which obviously exceeds that of Ukraine. But nothing else. And their battlefield gains are underwhelming given their disproportionate mass advantage. If they were still a USSR-equivalent, they would certainly have overrun Ukraine in a matter of weeks.
Modern Russia has no real ideology analogous to Marxism-Leninism. Putin’s efforts to substitute Russian Imperial Destiny are comically lame, as Putin himself illustrates daily the true, kleptocratic meaning of Russian governance. Nobody buys it at the mass level, despite Russian TV’s nightly nationalist spectacle. Say what you will about those old commies, enough of them really believed to matter. Today, there is no real Russian Imperialist ideology that would drive people off their couches and to the front for the Rodina, by contrast
(*) For more on Marxism-Leninism as a Theory of War, I cannot recomend William Odom’s The Collapse Of The Soviet Military highly enough.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Promised money, a Lada, loot, rape, murder are the ruZZia MIR and why they go to the front for Rodina according to most interviews by the Ukrainians of ruZZian POW’s.
WarTranslated, (Dimiti) translated one about a year ago, where the ruZZian had murdered and raped a family of 6, to steal their toilet, which he shipped back to his mother.
His village has no running water and no sewer system.
wjca
Well, IIRC they managed to run up some truly impressive body counts of their own that time. So that, at least, is consistent.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Soviet commanders were cold blooded bastards that treated the Soviet soldier as abundant, expendable, commodity resources, because that was the quality of material had to work w/, largely applied to equipment, too.
Nevertheless, they prodigiously expended these resources in service of clear & calculated tactical (grind down German defense to achieve breakthrough at one or more points), operational (allowing the Soviet Army to break into the German rear and destroy large Axis formations through rapid maneuver warfare), & strategic (rapid destruction of German combat power & seizure of German held territories). Soviet doctrine was never to keep feeding warm bodies & equipment into the meat grinder until the Germans ran out of men & bullets. Overwhelming manpower & firepower were employed at the tactical level to achieve breakthrough, but attritional not the operational & strategic concept.
What Russia is doing in Ukraine in 2023 & 2024 is more akin to the Western Front in WW I during the years of bloody stalemate or the Soviet Army insuring the Winter War: keep expending men & material for objectives that would only have yielded tactical gains from the outset, in hope of exhausting the enemy.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian:
All too true. And nevertheless, the average Soviet soldier was totally committed to the struggle, for reasons amounting to a mixture of nationalist outrage and Communist indoctrination. To the point that there were many documented cases of Soviet soldiers, hopelessly cut off by German columns, with no hope of survival other than surrender, who instead deliberately immolated themselves in an effort to kill even one German soldiet. One of the reasons for the bestial behavior of the Wehrmacht and Waffen SS in the East was the common experience of resistance to the death by Russians who would not be taken prisoner, even if the option had been on offer.
Compare the Russian soldiery today. We’ve seen video of Russian POWs being conducted to safety behind Ukrainian lines by drones. That perfectly encapsulates the difference between the USSR’s mass army and modern Russia’s.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: What you described was true to an extent, but should not be generalized. Millions of Soviet soldiers surrendered to the Axis, too, some even donned Waffen SS uniforms to fight against their former comrades (though they proved useless in this regard). Suffering from immense loss & brutality cause different reactions in different people, as is ever the case.
You can find plenty of tales of similar courage & heroism from China’s long struggle against aggression from Imperial Japan from 1931 on, among Communist, Nationalist, former warlord forces, even local partisans. OTOH, millions of Chinese soldiers served in the armies of puppet regimes that Japan had set up across occupied China, many participated in the horrific counterinsurgency “Three All” campaigns waged across occupied northern China. Most were former warlord armies nominally under the KMT banner, but some of the more ideologically indoctrinated & committed Nationalist forces surrendered & defected, too. The Communist forces were the most ideologically indoctrinated & committed (both to Chinese nationalism & to Communism as the path to national salvation & rejuvenation), has the highest esprit de corps, suffered the least defections, & those who did tended to be former warlord & Nationalist forces, & local bandits, more recently absorbed into Communist ranks as they were cut off by the IJA’s rapid advance across norther China.
Debbie(Aussie)
Thank you, Adam.
why was that little girl left to cry? Why wasn’t she hugged close.
I have read everyone of these reports and been heartbroken everyday. But today was the first time I actually burst out sobbing. That little girl and Jessica the shepherd were too much.
Anger is no longer enough.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
daveNYC
People, including members of the Israeli security services, have been sounding the alarm on Israel’s current path for freaking decades. Always the same core issue, Israel can hold the West Bank, be democratic, and be Jewish, but it can’t be all three. And Israel has kept on the same path to the point where you can do that Padme/Anakin meme with Padme going ‘But Israel will want to be a democracy, right?’
Except now the threat to democracy isn’t just from an apartheid setup in the West Bank, and a fair chunk of the people in power (to say nothing of the voters who put them there) have decided that if apartheid is on tap then they might as well just go straight to the endgame and commit some genocide; because the big thing about apartheid from their point of view is that it ended.