Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

When they say they’re pro-life, they don’t mean yours.

The jury literally has a bell they can ring to force Trump to show up on command. Greatest thing ever!

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Trump makes a mockery of the legal system and cowardly judges just sit back and let him.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

The lights are all blinking red.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 853: A Brief(ish) Tuesday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 853: A Brief(ish) Tuesday Night Update

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping items: First, Rosie is still doing well on the day after her chemo treatment. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, very long day today. Got a couple more this week, so I’m going to try to keep this as brief as possible tonight.

Here’s the butcher’s bill from Russia’s attacks on Kharkiv over the past 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, russian forces targeted the city of Kharkiv and the Kharkiv Oblast with 42 aerial bombs. The bombardment destroyed or damaged 40 houses and shattered more than 1,000 windows in Ukraine’s second-largest city. Footage taken right after three russian air bombs struck Kharkiv this morning.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Will Implement Everything Necessary to Advance Through Each Chapter of Our Relations with the EU – the Address by the President

25 June 2024 – 22:13

Dear Ukrainians!

Today has been a very eventful day.

We have officially started negotiations on membership with the European Union. This is a historic result. We have been working on it for a long time – and now we have held the first intergovernmental conference, and we will definitely implement everything necessary to advance through each chapter of our relations with the EU and to create a treaty – a treaty of Ukraine’s accession.

The second thing today is our legal battle. There are new warrants from the International Criminal Court for Russian murderers. Shoigu, Gerasimov – your path to The Hague is open. There is also a decision of the European Court of Human Rights on Russia’s responsibility for everything that has been committed in our Crimea against people and against the law. The occupier will be held accountable for that.

The third thing is a just peace for Ukraine, and our steps, aimed at fully restoring security. After the Peace Summit, we already have the eighth participant who signed the Joint Communiqué, and we are only increasing our pressure on Russia for the sake of a fair end to this war. And we are preparing working groups. As early as July, we will have new specifics aimed at achieving peace.

And as promised, we are working to bring all of our people back home, to Ukraine, from Russian captivity. Every single one of them. We do not forget anyone. Today, 90 more Ukrainian families are happy. 90 warriors have been brought back from captivity. Defenders of Azovstal and Mariupol, Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, from different front directions. They are warriors of the Armed Forces, the National Guard, the Border Guard Service, the Navy. Most of them are privates and sergeants. And we will bring back all the others in the same manner. We seek the truth about everyone – where the person is, what condition they are in, and what it will take to get them back. I thank our exchange team. Yermak, Budanov, Maliuk, Lubinets, Klymenko – thank you guys! I thank the United Arab Emirates for their assistance in making today’s event possible. We continue this work.

I thank everyone who believes, fights, helps and works for Ukraine to achieve such results – in protecting our people, strengthening our state, and bringing us closer to our peace. The peace that Ukrainians deserve!

Glory to Ukraine!

More Ukrainian POWs returned home today!

The Czech Republic:

I think this might be the first report I’ve seen that the Czech initiative to source, purchase, and deliver 155mm ammunition to Ukraine had actually made its initial delivery.

The stratejik jenius’s advisors have thoughts:

WASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) – Two key advisers to Donald Trump have presented him with a plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine – if he wins the Nov. 5 presidential election – that involves telling Ukraine it will only get more U.S. weapons if it enters peace talks.

The United States would at the same time warn Moscow that any refusal to negotiate would result in increased U.S. support for Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, one of Trump’s national security advisers, said in an interview.

Under the plan drawn up by Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who both served as chiefs of staff in Trump’s National Security Council during his 2017-2021 presidency, there would be a ceasefire based on prevailing battle lines during peace talks, Fleitz said.

They have presented their strategy to Trump, and the Republican presidential candidate responded favorably, Fleitz added. “I’m not claiming he agreed with it or agreed with every word of it, but we were pleased to get the feedback we did,” he said.

Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said only statements made by Trump or authorized members of his campaign should be deemed official.

The strategy outlined by Kellogg and Fleitz is the most detailed plan yet by associates of Trump, who has said he could quickly settle the war in Ukraine if he beats President Joe Biden in the Nov. 5 election, though he has not said how he would do that.

The proposal would mark a big shift in the U.S. position on the war and would face opposition from European allies and within Trump’s own Republican Party.

The Kremlin said any peace plan proposed by a possible future Trump administration would have to reflect the reality on the ground but that Russian President Vladimir Putin remained open to talks.

“The value of any plan lies in the nuances and in taking into account the real state of affairs on the ground,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters.

“President Putin has repeatedly said that Russia has been and remains open to negotiations, taking into account the real state of affairs on the ground,” he said.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Tuesday that freezing hostilities at the prevailing front lines would be “strange,” given Russia had violated international law by invading Ukraine.

“Ukraine has an absolutely clear understanding and it is spelled out in the peace formula proposed by President (Volodymyr) Zelenskiy, it is clearly stated there – peace can only be fair and peace can only be based on international law,” he told Reuters.

The White House National Security Council said the Biden administration would not force Ukraine into negotiations with Russia.

“President Biden believes that any decisions about negotiations are up to Ukraine,” said NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson.The core elements of the plan were outlined in a publicly available research paper, opens new tab published by the “America First Policy Institute,” a Trump-friendly think tank where Kellogg and Fleitz hold leadership positions.

Kellogg said it would be crucial to get Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table quickly if Trump wins the election.

“We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up,'” he said. “And you tell Putin, ‘He’s got to come to the table and if you don’t come to the table, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field.'”

According to their research paper, Moscow would also be coaxed to the table with the promise of NATO membership for Ukraine being put off for an extended period.

Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine in February 2022. Until some gains by Russia in recent months, the front lines barely moved since the end of that year, despite tens of thousands of dead on both sides in relentless trench warfare, the bloodiest fighting in Europe since World War Two.

Fleitz said Ukraine need not formally cede territory to Russia under their plan. Still, he said, Ukraine was unlikely to regain effective control of all its territory in the near term.

“Our concern is that this has become a war of attrition that’s going to kill a whole generation of young men,” he said.

A lasting peace in Ukraine would require additional security guarantees for Ukraine, Kellogg and Fleitz said. Fleitz added that “arming Ukraine to the teeth” was likely to be a key element of that.

“President Trump has repeatedly stated that a top priority in his second term will be to quickly negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war,” Trump spokesperson Cheung said.

Biden campaign spokesperson James Singer said Trump is not interested in standing up to Putin or defending democracy.

More at the link.

I’m not saying they’re good thoughts.

I’d love to see the faces of Donald Trump and his brilliantly talented advisors the moment they realize Vladimir Putin has just wiped his ass with their “peace plan on Ukraine” having used it to let his military catch the breath and then launch a new offensive on Ukraine with renewed vigor.

Sure, what could possibly go wrong with simple demagogic solutions.

Also, the US:

CNN has the details:

The Biden administration is moving toward lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine, four US officials familiar with the matter told CNN, to help the country’s military maintain and repair US-provided weapons systems.

The change would mark another significant shift in the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy, as the US looks for ways to give Ukraine’s military an upper hand against Russia.

The policy is still being worked on by administration officials and has not received final sign-off yet from President Joe Biden, officials said.

“We have not made any decisions and any discussion of this is premature,” said one administration official. “The president is absolutely firm that he will not be sending US troops to Ukraine.”

Once approved, the change would likely be enacted this year, officials said, and would allow the Pentagon to provide contracts to American companies for work inside Ukraine for the first time since Russia invaded in 2022. Officials said they hope it will speed up the maintenance and repairs of weapons systems being used by the Ukrainian military.

Over the last two years, Biden has insisted that all Americans, and particularly US troops, stay far away from the Ukrainian frontlines. The White House has been determined to limit both the danger to Americans and the perception, particularly by Russia, that the US military is engaged in combat there. The State Department has explicitly warned Americans against traveling to Ukraine since 2022.

As a result, US-provided military equipment that has sustained significant damage in combat has had to be transported out of the country to Poland, Romania, or other NATO countries for repairs, a process which takes time. US troops are also available to help the Ukrainians with more routine maintenance and logistics, but only from afar via video chat or secure phone—an arrangement that has come with inherent limitations, since US troops and contractors are not able to work directly on the systems.

Administration officials began to seriously reconsider those restrictions over the last several months, officials said, as Russia continued to make gains on the battlefield and US funding for Ukraine stalled in Congress. Allowing experienced, US government-funded American contractors to maintain a presence in Ukraine means they will be able to help fix damaged, high-value equipment much faster, officials said. One advanced system that officials say will likely require regular maintenance is the F-16 fighter jet, which Ukraine is set to receive later this year.

Companies bidding for the contracts would be required to develop robust risk mitigation plans to mitigate threats to their employees, an official said.

The discussions follow a series of decisions the US has made in recent months to try to help Ukraine beat back the Russians. In late-May, Biden gave Ukraine permission to strike targets inside Russia, near the border with the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, with US weapons—a request the US had repeatedly denied in the past. Last week, that policy appeared to expand once again, when National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Ukraine could counterstrike anywhere along the Ukraine-Russia border using US weapons.

Current and former officials familiar with the discussions about deploying contractors to Ukraine emphasized that the policy change will not result in the kind of overwhelming American contractor presence there that existed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, it would likely result in anywhere from a few dozen to a couple hundred contractors working in Ukraine at a time.

Even more from the US:

According to the Associated Press- The U.S. is expected to announce Tuesday it is sending an additional $150 million in critically needed munitions to Ukraine

The upcoming shipment is expected to include munitions for HIMARS. One of the U.S. officials said they could not verify whether this aid package included ATACMS munitions, but said the aid did not include cluster munitions.

The package also includes anti-armor weapons, small arms and grenades and the highly sought-after 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds, among other support.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-missiles-russia-military-aid-us-10508d1ea26ed047a183a1daea02d773

Here are the details from the AP:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. is expected to announce Tuesday it is sending an additional $150 million in critically needed munitions to Ukraine, as Russia accuses Ukraine of using U.S.-provided munitions to strike inside Russia or Russian-held territory, according to two U.S. officials.

The continued flow of U.S. munitions, which will be drawn from existing stockpiles, is intended to help Ukrainian forces repel intensified Russian attacks.

The upcoming shipment is expected to include munitions for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. That system is capable of firing the longer-range missiles from the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which Russia has said would prompt retaliation and risk escalating the conflict. One of the U.S. officials said they could not verify whether this aid package included ATACMS munitions, but said the aid did not include cluster munitions.

The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details that had not yet been made public.

The package also includes anti-armor weapons, small arms and grenades and the highly sought-after 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds, among other support.

The EU:

Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Somewhere in Donetsk Oblast:

Another destroyed Russian Pantsir-S1. As claimed by the source this one is somewhere in the Donetsk region:

“The photo shows the destroyed Pantsir-S1 air defense system.

HIMARS MLRS strike. The missile hit nearby, as a result of which the complex burned out from the inside.

The personnel were not injured.

15.06.2024-20.06.2024. Donetsk region.”

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/549

The Kharkiv front:

Here’s the full text of tweet 2 above:

/2. Geolocation of one of the Pantsir-S1.
(50.546260,36.581428). It’s also noteworthy that this is the first time when the drone footage of deep strike on Belgorod region of Russia were published

The destruction of those two Pantsir-S1 air defence so was reported back on the June 22nd:

“Minus 2 Pantsir-S1 in 2 days. 1 was on the near Belgorod. 1 covered Russian forces that attacked on Lyptsi, Kharkiv region, direction. In both cases the crew did not survive the Pantsirs were burned.”

https://t.me/vanek_nikolaev/24593
https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/8785

The Dnipro Rivier, Kherson Oblast:

The Avdiivka front:

For you air defense enthusiasts:

And for you Yak-52 enthusiasts:

Kill marks of the crew of the Ukrainian Yak-52, which shoots down Russian reconnaissance drones.

P.S: As said in the comments, the bird and cloud at the bottom right are marking drones downed as a result of a collision with a bird and exposure to weather, which was witnessed by the aircraft crew.

https://facebook.com/photo/?fbid=25980846541559054&set=a.868344163235972

If you ever wondered why states transitioning to liberal democracy are never quite able to make that transition, this thread is a good explainer:

The global system needs some long overdue TLC, and the L needs to be tough love.

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Tonight drones targeted a Russian ammunition storage in Olkhovatka, Voronezh region of Russia. 100km from the frontline.

Two drones attacked the territory of the ammunition storage at approximately 2:30 a.m. and the detonation is reportedly still ongoing.

https://t.me/astrapress/58317
https://t.me/DIUkraine/4015

Moscow via the Hague:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

But first a tree!

Yet another piece of Kyiv beauty for you all.

This is the Bai-Bai Oak, a magnificent ancient tree in the woodland at the northern edge of Kyiv, along the Big Automobile Beltway.

The Oak is about 500 years old, and this is one of Ukraine’s natural landmarks protected by law.

The video clearly does not fully illustrate the real scale – the tree is about 30 meters (100 ft) high, and the trunk’s diameter is about 1.5 meters (5 ft).

The Kyiv area is a really old place that has always been closely tied to forests, so we have quite a few such ancient trees that are 300, or 500, or even presumably about 1,000 years old.

One of many beautiful things about Kyiv is that one can sometimes google things about the town and be like: “Wow, so that big-ass tree next to a coffee shop I like actually remembers the time of the Crusades?”

The Bai-Bai Oak grows in the woodland strip beyond Kyiv’s residential districts, so it’s an especially wonderful and calm place to drive to, stop by, and take a walk while listening to birds.

The old tree gives a lot of spiritual power to its guests who are respectful and friendly. One should take it easy and try and explore pathways around the Oak and find a swampy pond with some really defiant ducks floating around.

This place is not distant, it’s very close to roads and also to a local police health camp, so it’s pretty easy to come to.

To be honest, I have no idea why it’s officially called “The Bai-Bai Oak.”

The easiest guess here is that the name comes from “Babai” or “Babaika,” which is a super common word for an elusive night creature from Slavic folklore, a boogeyman that parents jokingly scare their misbehaving kids with.

One could see and imagine that the ancient tree tries to boo its visitors with its branches spread wide, but other than that, it’s a very spiritually friendly place.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

14Comments

  4. 4.

    Anonymous At Work

    Thanks.  Online at the right time to ask: How much did the EU promise to Orban for allowing Ukrainian membership in EU to move forward?  Or was it a case of “we’ll take them over you and see what happens when CAP and other subsidies disappear”?

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Ukraine’s economy should currently be run as a state planned & controlled economy under wartime exigencies, including price controls over everything, & its supporters should helping it to do so. Now is not the time for maximizing capital efficiency & private profits.

    Part of the problem, of course, is that Ukraine’s Western supporter have mostly forgotten how to operate such an economy, perhaps Ukraine, too.

    & Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations should not force the former to implement the required marketization while the war is still going on.

  8. 8.

    Martin

    The reporting I’m reading is that Russia is really getting bled out lately in terms of soldiers and equipment. It’s a big place, so that’s hardly crippling, but it sounds like Ukraine is doing a much better job than they were able to do a few months ago.

  9. 9.

    Martin

    @YY_Sima Qian: Part of the problem, of course, is that Ukraine’s Western supporter have mostly forgotten how to operate such an economy

    Boy was that apparent during Covid.

  11. 11.

    wjca

    @Martin: The reporting I’m reading is that Russia is really getting bled out lately in terms of soldiers and equipment. It’s a big place, so that’s hardly crippling

    I think the operative word may be yet.

    Yes, Russia is a big place, and can sustain ridiculous losses for a while.  But not forever.  So the question becomes: Where, how close, is the breaking point?

    I don’t think it’s this year.  But it might arrive next year.  One of those “slowly, and then all at once” deals.

  12. 12.

    Jay

    @wjca:

    The latest  “Turtle Tank” captured by Ukraine, (the crew were killed) was an early 1960’s T-62. The engine was bagged, the main gun didn’t shoot, no breech block, there was no ammo, the MG’s were stripped out, the reactive armor boxes were empty*. The drone jammers didn’t work, ( it was taken out by a drone). The turret had no ERA blocks fitted or mounting points for the ERA, so at sometime in the 1970’s, they started upgrading the tank, but stopped. There was no radio.

    The ruZZian’s were using it as a “battle bus”, yes, the tank riders were killed too.

    There was a vid the other day, a train load of 1950’s T-54’s and 55’s headed towards Ukraine. No upgrades visible at all.

    *the explosives in the reactive armor is very stable, easily accessed and often stolen and sold on the black market.

  13. 13.

    Yutsano

    @wjca: ​The tell will be when Uncle Vladdie calls for another mobilisation. He’s getting volunteers because outside of Moscow and St Petersburg most young Russians are poor as dirt. But even that resource is running thin, so the next step will be forced conscription in the far-flung minority regions and more offers to prisoners. Three days in a “training camp” and off to Ukraine with you! But once he has to say the M word troops will really be running short.

  14. 14.

    Jay

    @wjca:

    So the question becomes: Where, how close, is the breaking point?

    The breaking point is Putin.

    As Dimitri, (War Translated) has pointed out with his translations, even the Z-bloggers have started to realize that the “smoke blowing” goes all the way up to the top. Putin will keep going as long as his Generals keep telling him they have destroyed 1500 Abrams tanks, 12 HIMARS, 8 Patriot systems, decimated 3 NATO Brigaides, shot down 40 F-16’s, etc, and as long as Prigozhin stays dead.

    Funny thing, the greatest ruZZian conquest in the SMO, was the capture of Rostov on Don, with no shots fired.

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