Quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing well. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, another long day, so I’m going to keep this short.
As you can see from the map above at 7:25 PM EDT about 4/5ths of Ukraine is currently under air raid alert. And now at 7:55 PM, all of Ukraine is under air raid alert. And as you can see in the image below, twi MiG-31Ks are inbound. Though one is partially obscured in the upper right of the map.
Earlier today Russia hit Kharkiv again with more glide bombs.
And again! Kharkiv is shuddering with explosions! https://t.co/YmYfLGLJzU
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 26, 2024
Kharkiv Oblast is gradually turning into ruins as russian troops attack it daily with glide bombs. Today, an attack on the town of Derhachi destroyed houses and injured nine civilians, including two children. pic.twitter.com/wqQNARnth3
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 26, 2024
More on Kharkiv after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
I’m Grateful to Everyone Who Is Truly Giving Their All to Ensure Our Donetsk Region Stands Firm – Address by the President
26 June 2024 – 10:21
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
I started this day in the Donetsk region, together with our warriors, together with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and the new Commander of the Joint Forces, General Hnatov. Today, I officially introduced Andriy Hnatov to all those responsible for defense in the Donetsk region. He is a young man, but his knowledge of the frontline and experience are exactly what is needed. General Hnatov’s task is clear – to destroy the occupier and, very importantly, to save as many lives of our warriors as possible.
Together with the Commander-in-Chief, we listened to the reports directly from the positions. I was pleased to personally visit and thank our 110th and 47th brigades – absolutely heroic and efficient men. I thanked our combat medics, the men and women who do the most important work – stabilizing the wounded, saving lives, providing maximum support. It is very touching to see such dedication and willingness to help.
Here in the Donetsk region, I held a detailed meeting on security and support for the people. We addressed many issues – ensuring the essentials of life such as water, social issues, evacuation, assistance for defense, and the restoration of housing. I am grateful to everyone who is truly giving their all to ensure our Donetsk region stands firm. There will be a separate conversation in Kyiv, particularly with officials who must be here and in other areas near the frontline – in difficult communities where people need immediate solutions. Solutions that simply cannot be seen from Kyiv. I was surprised to learn that some relevant officials have not been here for six months or more. There will be a serious conversation, and I will draw appropriate conclusions regarding them.
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy also made a battlefield circulation to the Pokrovsk direction:
Стабілізаційний пункт 47-ї окремої механізованої бригади.
Поспілкувався з нашими медиками, які розповіли про першочергові потреби. Відзначив державними нагородами.
Вдячний за вашу щоденну працю та самовіддану допомогу нашим воїнам. pic.twitter.com/dWtFzotJoa
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 26, 2024
Донеччина. 110-та, 31-ша й 47-ма окремі механізовані бригади.
Заслухав доповіді про оперативну обстановку, обговорили з Головкомом та комбригами наші дії. Особисто подякував нашим бійцям і відзначив нагородами.
Дякую за захист нашої держави, за те, що ви щоденно робите для… pic.twitter.com/wvdJVmSfi9
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 26, 2024
Here’s the full text of the above tweets in both English and Ukrainian:
Donetsk region: visited 110th, 31st, and 47th Separate Mechanized Brigades.
I received reports on the operational situation and discussed our actions with the Commander-in-Chief and brigade commanders. I also personally thanked our warriors and presented them with awards.
I thanked them for defending our state and for everything they do every day to preserve Ukraine for Ukrainians.
Донеччина. 110-та, 31-ша й 47-ма окремі механізовані бригади.
Заслухав доповіді про оперативну обстановку, обговорили з Головкомом та комбригами наші дії. Особисто подякував нашим бійцям і відзначив нагородами.
Дякую за захист нашої держави, за те, що ви щоденно робите для того, щоб Україна в українців була.
Kharkiv Oblast:
First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
Russia’s operation on the northern side of Kharkiv has lasted over six weeks. There have been serious difficulties at both operational and strategic level.
While the offensive is stuck, satellite images show the Russians have begun fortifying the newly occupied areas. 1/🧵 pic.twitter.com/81mAUS1g08
— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) June 26, 2024
The Kharkiv operation had three probable goals:
1. Create confusion and tie Ukrainian reserves to a secondary direction, so that progress could be made elsewhere
2. Form a “buffer zone” between Belgorod and Ukraine
3. Possibly get parts of Kharkiv within artillery range
2/Russia was able to tie some Ukrainian forces to Kharkiv, but it wasn’t able to exploit the initial momentum elsewhere on the front. In this situation, Russia has to divide its forces and spend manpower on a less important area, while progress is slow everywhere. 3/Ukraine stabilized the front relatively quickly and have began limited counterattacks.
Recently, Ukrainians have taken back areas in Vovchansk, Starytsia and Hlyboke, while Russians have made no additional gains. The city of Kharkiv is still far away from Russian artillery. 4/
The so-called buffer zone is small, and increasing it would require additional forces.
Russia has begun preparations to hold on to their gains. New satellite images reveal they’re constructing fortifications north of Vovchansk, near the border on the Ukrainian side. 5/
The new fortifications are 150-400 meters long trenches, built north and west of Vovchansk.
As the Sentinel images are very low-resolution, I double-checked some these from high-resolution imagery, which I unfortunately can’t publish here. 6/
The newly fortified zone is 2,5 km deep at most, and around 6 km wide – not very effective against Ukrainian operations towards Belgorod.
However, the work has started only recently, and it’s very possible there will be more new fortifications in the coming weeks. 7/
The Russians clearly do not want to lose what little they have achieved, which isn’t much to begin with. They have transferred a lot of excavators to this area, and Ukrainians have also damaged or destroyed over 15 of them. Rather heavy losses for engineering equipment. 8/Russia is determined to fortify now, despite the losses. The project seems politically motivated, as there already is a proper defensive line on the Russian side of the border. It hasn’t even been tested yet, as usually border raids don’t go beyond the first villages. 9/In the West, the Kharkiv situation caused a shift in the narrative. The urgency of supporting 🇺🇦 became a pressing issue, and 🇺🇦 was given the permission to strike 🇷🇺 with long-range western weaponry. One could ask, were the gains on the ground really worth it for Russia? 10/The future for similar operations seems difficult. Russians might try to launch new attacks in other directions, but Ukrainians now have more opportunities to respond to such attempts. Achieving the same results in a possible next offensive is more challenging. 11/There are some variables. Ukrainian losses are unknown, so we don’t know what is the price they’re paying for taking back these small border villages. Especially in the Vovchansk direction, throwing the Russians out of the villages doesn’t alter the general situation much. 12/Our team at @Black_BirdGroup is looking for solutions so that we could continue publishing high-resolution satellite imagery instead of just using them internally, in order to provide more visual and fact-based analysis. 13/13
Our interactive map:
Donetsk Oblast:
Bradley IFV shot down a russian FPV drone with a Bushmaster gun.
We have already seen how this IFV destroys russian tanks, armored vehicles, and positions. And now it also destroys drones.📹: 47th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/dHV1BWviiI
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 26, 2024
Chasiv Yar:
Chasiv Yar.
This used to be a thriving, quiet town in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.
Now, the plague of the fascist Russia is coming. pic.twitter.com/UQfGrgBLh8
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 26, 2024
Krasnohorivka front:
Burning Russian AFV column on the Krasnohorivka front.https://t.co/pYqzSYLdSw pic.twitter.com/OsJDDmT7Tr
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 26, 2024
If you’re curious as to how Russia runs its subversion campaigns, this thread via the Thread Reader App provides a good example:
Nigel Farage’s claims that the West allegedly provoked the Russian invasion of Ukraine are not coming out of nowhere, and the context behind this picture from a few years ago helps understand his claims. Left: Farage, right: Nadia Borodi (Sass). 1/10Borodi is originally from Ukraine, and together with her partner Oleh Voloshyn they operated an agent network in Europe on behalf of Ukrainian pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk. Left: Borodi, right: Voloshyn. 2/10While still in Ukraine, and when Ukraine still tolerated (mistakenly) agents of Russian influence, both promoted pro-Kremlin politics, and actively used European politicians for their objectives. Here’s Borodi with Nicolas Bay of the French National Front/Rally. 3/10Through Voloshyn/Borodi, Medvedchuk would also cooperate with the German far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD): from left to right, Oleh Voloshyn, Petr Bystron (AfD), Viktor Medvedchuk, Maximilian Krah (AfD) and Ulrich Singer (AfD). 4/10One special area of interest for Medvedchuk was also the British far right: UKIP/Brexit Party (now Reform UK), and Borodi/Voloshyn actively engaged with members of Nigel Farage’s political project: Nathan Gill, David Coburn and Jonathan Arnott. Here’s Borodi with Gill. 5/10Through Voloshyn and Borodi, UKIP/Brexit Party were connected to Viktor Medvedchuk’s media projects that were run by Artem Marchevsky. Here’s a panel at the European Parliament in Strasbourg in 2019 featuring David Coburn, Nathan Gill, Marchevsky and some others. 6/10Voloshyn and Borodi fled Ukraine just one month before the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Medvedchuk failed to flee, was arrested and then exchanged for several Ukrainian PoWs. Marchevsky fled Ukraine and somehow settled in Czechia. 7/10Neither Medvedchuk nor Marchevsky retired from pro-Russian activism. Medvedchuk started cooperating with the Russian Social Design Agency infamous for “Operation Doppelgänger”: 8/10
And as we now know, Medvedchuk and Marchevsky set up the Russian front media organisation “Voice of Europe” that was busted by the Czech intelligence earlier this year: 9/10 bbc.com/news/world-eur…
For those wondering about Russia’s ability to produce more tanks:
We looked at the biggest military bases on land, abt 87, to understand why experts say that out of 5 tanks Russia sends to the UKR font 4 are used/refurbished. “86% of 1530 tanks delivered were refurbished tanks from storage”. Michael Gjerstad,@IISS_org. Stocks aren’t bottomless
— techjournalisto (@Techjournalisto) June 26, 2024
What experts at @IISS and @RUSI say – that the next two-year window will be crucial to show whether Russia can replenish tanks losses – mirrors our analysis: Fast shrinking & hyperdependence on old stocks, puts pressure on Putin, producing new tanks for the front pic.twitter.com/Dg6A4kmOMk
— techjournalisto (@Techjournalisto) June 26, 2024
New tanks, Putin’s keen to make. And fast. Many many of them. @Marina_Miron at the Department of War Studies King’s College London tells us that Russia could face lacks in western components to do so. The only option: refurbish old ones… pic.twitter.com/k5VCbwUy95
— techjournalisto (@Techjournalisto) June 26, 2024
In the end, big thanks goes to @picterra (which helped us and earlier the @nytimes reporing to count Gaza bomb craters) and @high_marsed for the support & explainer on the vehicle types and trends – Article here: https://t.co/F8GdRWdBtl
— techjournalisto (@Techjournalisto) June 26, 2024
Belgorod, Russia:
Strike in the suburbs of Belgorod, this morning. And POV geolocation.
50.604508,36.454329https://t.co/0Wc7mvFV2O pic.twitter.com/6iiWxayGqa
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 26, 2024
Pyongyang:
Pyongyang announced early this week that it will be sending troops in the form of a military engineering unit to support Russian forces on the ground in the Donetsk region. The troops are expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as next month.https://t.co/eGgjj3BjUa
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 26, 2024
Here are the details from The Kyiv Post:
Last week, President Vladimir Putin made an official state visit to the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK) – North Korea, his first for almost a quarter of a century. As part of that visit Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a so-called defense pact in the North Korean capital on June 19.
The military treaty states: “In the event that any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay.”
In response to that Pyongyang announced early this week that it will be sending troops in the form of a military engineering unit to support Russian forces on the ground in the Donetsk region. The troops are expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as next month.
The DPRK has already supplied almost two million rounds of artillery ammunition, rockets for Russian multiple launch rocket systems and, it is alleged, ballistic missiles to support Putin’s forces since the two leaders met in Russia in September. The active participation of North Korean combat troops raises the specter of escalation to the conflict, especially as commentators think it will not go well for Pyongyang’s sappers on the battlefield.
Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder said during a briefing on June 25 that North Korean troops were effectively being sent to their slaughter and questioned the wisdom of the deployment. He said, “I think that if I were North Korean military personnel management, I would be questioning my choices on sending my forces to be cannon fodder in an illegal war against Ukraine – we’ve seen the kinds of casualties that Russian forces [have been taking].”
More at the link.
This is incredibly dangerous for Kim. If his combat engineers do not perform well it is going to be a huge black eye for him and the DPRK military.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
First some adjacent material.
Rations for abandoned pets: police support local animals in Kharkiv region
Law enforcement officers are trying to help animals that have been left without owners and live under constant shelling. Police officer Oleksii Kharkivskyi joined this initiative.… pic.twitter.com/MqqkabmakM
— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) June 26, 2024
Rations for abandoned pets: police support local animals in Kharkiv region
Law enforcement officers are trying to help animals that have been left without owners and live under constant shelling. Police officer Oleksii Kharkivskyi joined this initiative. (https://facebook.com/profile.php?id=100041919522623)
He says that in this difficult time, when a brutal war is raging on our land, thousands of people were forced to flee their homes to save their lives.
Unfortunately, not all citizens who evacuated to safer places were able to take their pets with them.
“We, like many other people, are trying to support our four-legged friends in every way possible. We share our food with them, even when we are not very full ourselves, we give them our lunch. This is the least we can do,”
says Oleksiy Kharkovskiy.We help everyone who needs it. Always where they are most needed….
Kyivan duckies!!!!
#Київ / #Kyiv pic.twitter.com/eCv7IDnWGP
— Красень Κиїв (@adrozd83) June 26, 2024
What did TaMara know and when did she know it?
Finally, a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Нагадування про те, що кожна риса твого обличчя – унікальна і прекрасна💗 #facialharmony #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
A reminder that every feature of your face is unique and beautiful 💗 #facialharmony#песпатрон
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’ve got to go get a workout in. Back later.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks Adam! I admit I am very surprised that KJU is willing to send troops into occupied Ukraine to fight for Putin. He must be getting a lot in return.
This will definitely concern Beijing a lot more.
Not sure what one engineering unit will do, though. What’s next? A Korean People’s ”Volunteer” Force?
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
I count 9 male mallards and no females. Those poor guys, its worse than prep school.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Either Putin doesn’t want to risk his own or he’s already burned through them in one of the meat grinder assaults.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Any thoughts on Assange. Was this part of a below the surface exchange?
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
There was a failed NORK ballistic missile test yesterday. South Korean Intelligence thinks it was the NORK’s first attempt at a hypersonic Kinzhal clone.
Jay
https://defence24.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-raport-specjalny-defence24/pod-ogniem-rosyjskie-wojska-inzynieryjno-saperskie-w-wojnie
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: Just saw this. I’m getting ready to get cleaned up and rack out. I’ll answer in tomorrow night’s post if that’s okay.
wjca
I had the same reaction. How much is this costing Putin? (Because, as Adam notes, there’s a big risk here for Kim.) Also, how desperate does Putin have to be getting that he’s willing to pay that price?
Jay
@wjca:
Food, fuel, missile, nuclear and satellite technology at the bare minimum.
The Poles have noted that at least 8 Brigades of Combat Engineers and hundreds of specialized engineering vehicles have been broken in Ukraine. ruZZia is trying to train up 5 new Brigades, but you don’t get a qualified Combat Engineer in just a year of training.
wjca
A useful reminder for us that, no matter the meatcube view of infantry troops**, an army also critically depends on specialized troops. Troops which take time to train; and not just any Ivan off the street can absorb that training.
** Actually, infantry is a skilled position as well. Incremental improvements in training can have substantial impacts on combat effectiveness. Not sure if Russian military leadership hasn’t grasped that. Or if their cost/benefit calculations showed that, with lots of cannon fodder (initially) available, it wasn’t worthwhile.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Adam L Silverman: 👍
Jay
@wjca:
NATO doctrine is that it takes 2 years to train up a “basic” Infantryman. 6 months “basic”, 6 months squad/platoon, 6 months Company, 6 months Battalion.
Russia has had, since “modernization”, two “Armies”. “Contract” soldiers, (“professionals or “lifers”) and “mobliks”, (Conscripts). Contract soldiers spend 3 months in the “SMO”, “mobliks” spend at a minimum, their 2 years conscripted in the “SMO”.
“meatcubes”, “StormZ” get at best. 6 days training and might get to fire their weapon once in training.
It’s not like the “combined arms” ops of the ruZZian’s have worked out well.
So “meatcubes” it is.
wjca
All of which is predicated on having an experienced cadre of NCOs to make all the pieces work together. Russian military, in addition to its lack of training, lacks NCOs.
Having been an officer, I can testify that an officer (especially a junior officer) simply cannot replace senior NCOs. A smart officer puts significant effort into finding ways for his NCOs to pass him advice. Especially when he doesn’t realize he needs it.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
@wjca:
The “contract” soldiers have some NCO’s.
The “mobliks” have NCO’s appointed from the ranks.
And then you have dedovshchina.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina#:~:text=Incidents%20of%20hazing%20in%20the,and%20threats%20of%20anal%20rape.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1805893444964921844#m
Freemark
@Jay: Reading through that you also come across paraphrased ‘ since 2014 convicts are no longer able to serve’…lol. That didn’t last long.
Jay
@Freemark:
Nope.
Ukraine has also opened it’s jails. However,
Can’t be a violent criminal,
Need to pass a psych test,
Have to state your motivations.
Over 90% so far are “ruZZians killed my family, I want revenge”.
wjca
Which is enough to make a person feel all over warm and fuzzy nostalgia for their least favorite drill sergeant. :-)