Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Democrats are back in array!

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

He really is that stupid.

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

Giving up is unforgivable. ~Joe Biden

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

Bark louder, little dog.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

People are complicated. Love is not.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

I really should read my own blog.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

You are here: Home / Elections 2024 / Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Good News

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Good News

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biden very deliberately targeting hispanic voters at a hugely cheap ad buy.

[image or embed]

— not an art thief (@famousartthief.bsky.social) Jun 25, 2024 at 10:43 PM


By extremely limited definitions of ‘watch’… Most people, I suspect, will tune in for the intro, and let their attention wander if there are no immediate fireworks. I’m planning on watching through liveblogs, and only switching to the actual debate if something useful happens, because there’s only so much my blood pressure medication can handle:

… About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say they are “extremely” or “very” likely to watch the debate live or in clips, or read about or listen to commentary about the performance of the candidates in the news or social media.

The poll suggests tens of millions of Americans are likely to see or hear about at least part of Thursday’s debate despite how unusually early it comes in the campaign season. Both Biden and Trump supporters view the debate as a major test for their candidate — or just a spectacle not to miss…

About half, 47%, of Americans say the debate is “extremely” or “very” important for the success of Biden’s campaign and about 4 in 10 say it’s highly important for Trump’s campaign. About 3 in 10 Americans say it is at least “very” important for both campaigns.

Most Democrats, 55%, think the upcoming debate is extremely or very important for the success of the Biden campaign. About half of Republicans, 51%, say the same thing about the importance of the debate for the Trump campaign. Only about one-third of independents say the debate, taking place at a CNN studio in Atlanta, is highly important for either campaign…

About 4 in 10 say they are likely to watch or listen to some or all of the debate live, while a similar share say they will watch or listen to clips later. Another 4 in 10, roughly, expect to consume commentary about the debate and candidate performance in the news or on social media. Republicans and Democrats are more likely than independents to be following debate coverage in some capacity…

Reader Interactions

124Comments

  2. 2.

    Baud

    In a stunning announcement, Chief Executive Leadership Institute CEO Jeffrey Sonnenfeld says there will not be one Fortune 500 CEO supporting Donald Trump. This is wholly unprecedented. Retweet so all Americans see this shocking news.

    That is genuinely surprising.

    I wish the debates weren’t so pivotal, especially with the media thumb on the scale.

  3. 3.

    lollipopguild

    The  not-so Supreme Court just ruled that Presidents do not have the power to pardon anyone.  Trump issues statement that he and only he can pardon people!

  4. 4.

    Butch

    There’s no way I’m watching the debate.  For one thing, there’s no force on earth that would get me to vote for Trump, so whatever happens won’t change my mind.  For another, Trump will vile, incoherent, and bullying, and neither Tapper nor Bash has what it takes to control him.  I’m sparing myself.

  5. 5.

    dmsilev

    So I guess the window has pretty much closed on Trump ginning up some sort of bogus “it’s all rigged” excuse and backing out of the debate. I’m actually a bit surprised; that sort of bait and switch and flounce is a signature move for him.

  6. 6.

    Cacti

    I saw that AIPAC was able to successfully purchase the NY-16 primary.

    Jamal Bowman had his issues to be sure, but his replacement is a 70 year old corporate fossil with a history of working with Republicans to block affordable housing.

    Hooray democracy.  :-(

  8. 8.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Baud:

    I wish the debates weren’t so pivotal, especially with the media thumb on the scale.

    Agreed. The candidates’ widely available track records should be more than enough to sway even the least-informed voter. But we don’t live in that world.

    Like AL, I’ll probably skip the debates and read the recaps, or maybe follow through live blogs. I’m not on blood pressure meds, but might need emergency doses during the event. I have faith in Joe, but still….

  9. 9.

    Baud

    @Cacti: Eh, we’ve been talking about the Bowman primary for a couple of days, and reducing that situation to AIPAC is basically misleading by omission.

  10. 10.

    Belafon

    @Cacti: Bowman didn’t get the union endorsement. How in the heck does the Democrat in New York not get the union endorsement?

  11. 11.

    Baud

    I used to enjoy the debates with Balloon Juice commentary, but Trump takes all the joy out of everything. I’m not interested in being entertained by him.

  12. 12.

    satby

    Sonnenfeld’s last line: “They’ll be reluctant Biden voters, they don’t want the fabric of society pulled apart”.

    Most business people (successful ones anyway) have to be practical to continue to be profitable. I said this a few days ago, they may give lip service to supporting tcfg, but few will actually vote for him. Sonnenfeld’s list of what a disaster the proposed GQP economic plans are should be a campaign ad, and probably will be soon.

  13. 13.

    Jeffg166

    I have a memory of seeing a movie in the 50s about a white buffalo. The hunter freezes to death at the end. No idea what it was called.

  15. 15.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @satby:

    Sonnenfeld’s list of what a disaster the proposed GQP economic plans are should be a campaign ad, and probably will be soon.

    To the campaign comms staff: make it so. I’m confident they will. :)

    If folks haven’t listened yet to the podcast interview with Jen O’Malley Dillon that AL posted in yesterday’s morning thread, I highly recommend it.

  16. 16.

    satby

    I haven’t watched the reality show posing as “debates” since Bush v. Gore. Not watching this one. Not even tcfg’s almost certain blooper reel.

  19. 19.

    waspuppet

    I can’t watch the debate. I spent enough of my life listening to a domestic abuser talk, and hearing Donald Trump puts me right back there.

    ETA: Biden’s contempt for Trump is his underrated superpower, so that’s a bright spot. But the excuse-making from Trump and his allies among our wealthy media stars is also triggering. It’s going to be a rough few days.

  21. 21.

    H.E.Wolf

    @Belafon: Bowman didn’t get the union endorsement. How in the heck does the Democrat in New York not get the union endorsement?

     By voting “NO” on the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

  25. 25.

    Josie

    I can’t watch debates in general, and this one specifically. I am not prone to anxiety, but political debates really ring my bell. It is actually painful, and I suspect I am not the only one to feel this way.

  26. 26.

    Cacti

    @Baud:  The Times of Israel seems to disagree with your assessment.  And the $14 million of dark money AIPAC dumped into the race to get another puppet in Congress.

  27. 27.

    Kay

    I like debates – I’ll watch. I don’t watch the clips of Trump online so I actually haven’t heard him in years.

    Biden is a very good debater – underestimated, IMO. I assume Trump will try to goad Biden into attacking Trump’s horrible children by attacking Hunter, but Biden won’t bite.

  28. 28.

    Baud

    @Cacti:

    The Times of Israel seems to disagree with your assessment.

    Fine with me. I don’t defer to a foreign newspaper’s opinion.

     

    And the $14 million of dark money AIPAC dumped into the race to get another puppet in Congress.

    They paid for the right to crow about a result that was foreordained. And of course watch in glee as their adversaries like you pump them up as kingmakers. Easily worth the millions.

  29. 29.

    Matt McIrvin

    @satby: There are plenty of businesses that profit from the fabric of society being pulled apart. Anyone who figures they can gouge on pricing of vital goods but need cheap labor. Weapons manufacturers. News media.

    When everyone was predicting a recession a couple of years ago, there were some op-eds from CEOs salivating about it because it would teach their greedy, goldbricking workers a lesson.

    I think what some of them want is an apocalypse just small enough that they figure they can ride it out.

  31. 31.

    Geminid

    @Belafon: Bowman was not the Democrat, but one of two Democrats in the primary.

    The head of the NYC area Carpenters Union local laid out the reasons his union endorsed Latimer and not Bowman in an op-ed piece for USA Today. It was reprinted by local news site Lohud on June 19. I posted excerpts from the op-ed in Tamara’s late night thread two posts before this, at comment #61.

  33. 33.

    CaseyL

    @Josie: ​

    You are not the only one.

    I’ll follow the debate, mostly on BJ but maybe Mastodon, too. Undoubtedly, clips will be uploaded on various sites afterward.

    Bash and Tapper as moderators are going to suck. Bash is a milktoast for the GOP, and Tapper is only good at zeroing in on inconsequentialities. I can see them both letting TCFG monopolize the stage, and harrassing Biden instead for “misspeaking.”

  34. 34.

    Another Scott

    @Cacti:

    Is this the ToA story you mean?.

    The reporter is with the JTA.

    This JTA story seems more balanced:

    For months, national analysis of the race has framed it as a proxy fight in the wider intra-Democratic Party battle over Israel. Much of the focus has been on AIPAC’s spending to unseat Bowman, as well as the congressman’s increasingly harsh criticism of Israel and its allies, in step with the progressive Squad of which he is a member. In retrospect, though, the more telling development was J Street’s decision back in January to pull its endorsement of Bowman. Not because J Street had the ability to shift meaningful numbers of votes, but because its backtracking was a powerful signal of just how much trouble Bowman was in.

    J Street’s raison d’etre is to counter AIPAC’s influence and provide lawmakers with pro-Israel Jewish cover to advocate for more aggressive U.S. efforts to bring about a two-state solution. So if J Street decided it could no longer stick with Bowman, clearly he was facing an uphill climb to hang on to supporters of Israel in his district, wherever they fall on the pro-Israel spectrum.

    The deeper issue is that Bowman – unlike fellow Squad member Ocasio-Cortez – represents what is now an almost entirely suburban district. And a heavily Jewish one to boot.

    When Bowman defeated longtime incumbent and staunch AIPAC ally Eliot Engel in the 2020 primary, 59% of voters came from the Westchester portion of the district and 41% from the Bronx. By the 2022 primary, following redistricting that left Bowman representing just a sliver of the Bronx, the Westchester share of the vote had skyrocketed to 94%. While the final court-mandated, chaos-unleashing new district map led to the demise of multiple Democratic incumbents, Bowman survived his first reelection primary, defeating a collection of challengers with 54% of the vote overall and 52% of the vote in Westchester – about the same as in 2020.

    The good news for Bowman that year: In a chaotic local primary season that saw several other incumbents go down due to redistricting, the congressman didn’t lose any ground. The bad news: After two years in office and with no formidable challenger on the ballot, he didn’t gain any, either.

    It looks like his district changed a lot and he didn’t take that into account.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  35. 35.

    lowtechcyclist

    I always watch the debates, so I’ll be watching this one.  If TCFG is visibly falling apart, I want to see it in real time, so that nobody will be able to tell me that I and all my lie-beral friends are basing that assessment on MSM-edited clips.

    ETA:

    Bash and Tapper as moderators are going to suck.

    Seems like that should matter a lot less than in past years, due to this year’s rules. Their choice of questions will matter, but after that, since the candidates’ mikes get turned off when it isn’t their turn to respond, the moderators shouldn’t really have to do that much moderating, AIUI.

  36. 36.

    Spanky

    I hope that every time tcfg lies, Joe says “that’s a lie”. His mic will be off, but Trump will hear him. That’ll undoubtedly get to him, and lead to some real “watchable moments”.

  37. 37.

    Cacti

    @Baud:  Sure thing boss.  AIPAC definitely doesn’t dog walk the elected branches of the US government.

    ;-)

  39. 39.

    catclub

    @Butch: For another, Trump will vile, incoherent, and bullying, and neither Tapper nor Bash has what it takes to control him. I’m sparing myself.

    I thought the take that Trump will be extraordinarily lowkey, and that will actually help him with undecided voters who are asking ‘Is trump way crazy?’ and thinking  ‘ I guess not.’   was interesting.

  40. 40.

    Cacti

    @Another Scott:   No, this one.

    The American Israel Public Affairs Committee says the defeat of Jamal Bowman in the Democratic primary for New York’s 16th Congressional District “once again shows that the pro-Israel position is both good policy and good politics — for both parties.”

    The group, which poured money into the campaign, congratulates George Latimer on his “resounding victory over an anti-Israel detractor.”

    “This triumph by a strong pro-Israel candidate represents a major victory for the Democratic mainstream that stands with the Jewish state and a defeat for the extremist fringe,” AIPAC says in a statement.

  41. 41.

    Baud

    @Cacti: Heh. You changing your tune from talking about Bowman to talking about AIPAC’s power nationally is an obvious tell. :-)

    I don’t care if you don’t like the result, but I do care about misinformation, and treating the result as 100% about AIPAC is misinformation.

  42. 42.

    CaseyL

    @Cacti: 

    Do you have any reason to think Bowman is/would be a better representative of his District than Latimer?

    Do you think Bowman’s vote against the infrastructure bill was irrelevant?

    Do you think the unions coming out against him was irrelevant?

  44. 44.

    jonas

    @Baud: No link, so I’m wondering what the source of that story is. What about Larry Ellison? Elmo? Stephen Schwarzman? I’m sure there are more.

  46. 46.

    Kay

    @lowtechcyclist:

    I like to see them myself, too. I don’t like relying on clips or reviews. Bash is awful though and Tapper is a sanctimonius scold, so we’ll have to deal with that. Our political media are so often an actual detriment to viewers. I wish they added value.

  47. 47.

    Cacti

    @CaseyL: Do you have any reason to think Bowman is/would be a better representative of his District than Latimer?

    He doesn’t accept right wing dark money. He doesn’t have a history of working against affordable housing and court-ordered desegregation. He doesn’t blindly support the worst acts of Israel.

    Glad I could help.

  48. 48.

    Betty Cracker

    Rachel Maddow did a segment [YouTube] on business leaders and Trump that laid out the data. The takeaway: no Republican candidate in modern history has had lower business community support, and that’s because Trump is lousy for business. Corrupt oligarchs like Musk have an entirely different agenda.

  49. 49.

    marklar

    @Cacti: Hmmm. So now you are taking as true what AIPAC claims about their pivotal role in Bowman’s defeat.

    Do you give the same level of credence to AIPAC’s statements on the Zionist-Palestinian issue, or do you pick and choose when to believe them to your predetermined conclusions?

  51. 51.

    Cacti

    @marklar:  Did Latimer ever say he didn’t need or want $14 million in advertising from them.  That it didn’t help?  That it didn’t represent him or his views?

  52. 52.

    Geminid

    @Belafon: Sorry if I picked on you over “the.” But if you are wondering why one union– the Carpenters–endorsed Latimer, the op-ed I refer to at #31 explains the reasoning.

    The excerpts are too long to repeat here, and anyway I don’t want to keep kicking Rep. Bowman when he’s down. I think he’s basically a well-meaning person. I can’t say the same about his Justice Democrat sponsors, though.

  53. 53.

    Old Dan and Little Ann

    My wife and I always watch the debates.  Plus if drumph strokes out on live tv, I  don’t want to miss it.  Unfortunately, my better half likes to watch msnbc after to hear their thoughts.  Barf.

  54. 54.

    catclub

    @jonas: No link, so I’m wondering what the source of that story is. What about Larry Ellison? Elmo? Stephen Schwarzman? I’m sure there are more.

     

    I wonder if those guys are all actually higher than CEO – like Chairman of the board, and the ‘no CEO’ bit isa legalism.

     

    Also, Pretty sure that Schwarzman’s company Blackstone is not really very big. They -hold and manage_ a lot of money but the management company is small.

  56. 56.

    marklar

    @Cacti: “Did Latimer ever say he didn’t need or want $14 million in advertising from them.  That it didn’t help?  That it didn’t represent him or his views?”

    You used AIPAC’s statement as evidence…not Latimer’s statements (or non-statements). Why are you changing the subject and using the absence of evidence to support your argument?

  57. 57.

    TBone

    …I want to see it in real time, so that nobody will be able to tell me that I and all my lie-beral friends are basing that assessment on MSM-edited clips.

    Exactly the reason I will watch every moment with my own eyes.

    Oops, need more coffee.  That was @ltc #35

  58. 58.

    Kay

    @Old Dan and Little Ann:

    He got really mad in one 2020 debate, which was amusing. Biden was angry too but he’s better at concealing it. I think the stories about Trump throwing things are true – he’s definitely someone who has never been checked for bad behavior. I blame his parents.

  59. 59.

    catclub

    @satby: Most business people (successful ones anyway) have to be practical to continue to be profitable. I said this a few days ago, they may give lip service to supporting tcfg, but few will actually vote for him.

     

    Not sure what counts as a business person. The impression I get of the teaparty and then the typical Trump voter is a relatively well off small contractor – who did not go to college.

  60. 60.

    Betty Cracker

    I think Bowman lost because he no longer fit the district, which was redrawn twice during his terms, IIRC. He held his big rally in an area he doesn’t represent for a reason — it was a better fit than his actual district. Also, Bowman was a weak candidate who had said and done some dumb things.

    I don’t like the idea of foreign influence campaigns in the guise of PACs meddling in U.S. politics, but that’s what we’ve got under our weak campaign finance regulations, which should be changed, BTW. But Bowman was trailing Latimer before the AIPAC ad blitz, and he lost by a huge margin. 

    The post-election spin about how Bowman’s loss is a huge warning for the “Democratic left” is bullshit for the same reasons, IMO.

  62. 62.

    Kay

    @karen marie:

    It’s a different district than the one he won in though:

    When Bowman defeated longtime incumbent and staunch AIPAC ally Eliot Engel in the 2020 primary, 59% of voters came from the Westchester portion of the district and 41% from the Bronx. By the 2022 primary, following redistricting that left Bowman representing just a sliver of the Bronx, the Westchester share of the vote had skyrocketed to 94%.

    Latimer got to pick his voters. It matters.

  64. 64.

    Belafon

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    He voted against the infrastructure bill.

    Yep. I was trying to be a bit more general in that it doesn’t seem like he was doing the things a Democrat should do to get the local Democrats to support him. Making sure core Democratic groups support you just seems like a minimum requirement.

  65. 65.

    Cacti

    So, the conventional wisdom at BJ is “Just because AIPAC dumped more money into a primary than has ever been done in the history of the republic, doesn’t mean it affected the outcome!”.

    You funny.

    Remind me why anyone complains about Citizens United again?

  66. 66.

    sab

    @Baud: I watched Sonnenfeld on a couple of  MSNBC shows and he was specific about it being Fortune 100, not Fortume 500. He even corrected his own slip of the tongue at one point.

  68. 68.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    Last debate I watched was Biden take down the granny starver.

    Also not remarked upon but what a great thing in that he’s pardoned those nailed by the gay ban.  Pride Month notches another win!

  70. 70.

    catclub

    @Betty Cracker: The post-election spin about how Bowman’s loss is a huge warning for the “Democratic left” is bullshit for the same reasons, IMO.

     

    Agreed. I just saw Kay’s post that the district was completely re-engineered. Enemies in Albany? Meanwhile AOC won with 80+%.

  71. 71.

    Kay

    @Cacti:

    I think it probably mattered some – ads matter and theyt ran a ton of negative ads- but redistricting mattered much more. If Bowman won 4 to 1 in the Bronx but they cut his share of the Bronx to 6% from 40% he was never going to win.

  72. 72.

    karen marie

    @catclub: Who thinks Trump has the capacity for “low-key”? That is a hilarious suggestion. It sounds like something some moron from the NYT would come up with.

     

    I always watch debates (and SOTU, and the like) on CSPAN to avoid the inane commentary. I have to assume this debate will be available there despite it being hosted by CNN.

  73. 73.

    rikyrah

    they played themselves by not voting to join the UAW.

     
    UAW president: Mercedes breaking promises to workers by blaming the union

    UAW’s Shawn Fain accuses Mercedes management of “blaming the union rather than keeping their commitments to make improvements for workers.”

    By CHANCE PHILLIPS

    Published on June 21, 2024 at 7:12 am CDT

    Updated on June 21 at 5:16 pm

    On Thursday, an email from United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain to the leadership of the Mercedes-Benz General Works Council and IG Metall was posted to X by Luis Feliz Leon of the labor news publication Labor Notes. The General Works Council represents over 100,000 German Mercedes workers and IG Metall is a German metalworkers’ union.

    In the email, Fain wrote that Mercedes “management is telling workers that they are unable to follow through on promised increases to wages, benefits, and working conditions because the UAW filed objections to last month’s union election.”

    He specifically stated that Rolf Wrona, a MBUSI vice president of human resources, “told several Group Leaders that MBUSI could not pay workers for an upcoming plant shutdown because they were still in ‘status quo.’”

    “Status quo refers to a specific legal standard in U.S. labor law that requires unionized employers to notify the union prior to making any changes to wages, benefits, or working conditions and bargain with the union over any proposed changes prior to implementation,” Fain said. “However, MBUSI is not currently unionized, so no status quo condition exists” [emphasis in original].

    ……………………..

    The employee said one of the primary concerns was holiday pay and time off for Independence Day. Before the election, workers were told they would also be able to take July 5 and July 6 off, either by using vacation days or by taking no pay.

    Many workers reportedly believed that new CEO Federico Kochlowski would make July 5 and 6 paid days off after the election concluded. When this change failed to happen, they attributed it to the UAW’s challenges, possibly because Mercedes management told them so as some workers have claimed.

    https://www.alreporter.com/2024/06/21/uaw-president-mercedes-breaking-promises-to-workers-by-blaming-the-union/

     

    When you’re this phucking stupid, you get what you get.

  76. 76.

    TBone

    @karen marie: I was wondering the same thing about C-SPAN.

    Their website entry links to this info:

    The debate will air live on CNN, CNN International, CNN en Español and CNN Max.
    For those without a cable subscription, the debate will be streaming on CNN.com, the network said in a news release

  77. 77.

    Cacti

    @catclub:  The new districts were the result of the lawsuit, affirmed by the NY State Court of Appeal (its highest court), invalidating the districts drawn by the State legislature, and handing them over to Republican trial judge in the upstate, who had them redrawn by a special master from Pennsylvania.

    I wish I was making any of that up.

  78. 78.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Kay: I also think that AIPAC poured money into this race so that they could claim Bowman’s scalp whether they took it or not.

  82. 82.

    Kay

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    That’s what Josh Marshall wrote and he’s in NY so maybe. By the same token – looking at the other side – I’m sure Bowman’s campaign team can add and subtract so maybe he felt safer criticizing US Israel policy because he knew it was essentially over with the redistrict so going along no longer mattered.

  84. 84.

    Kay

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    Agree. It’s such a mismatch of two people that it’s interesting. Of course, that’s because Trump is a freak and a weirdo, but still.

    Trump disgusts me – his voice, his accent, his limited vocabulary, his appearance. That’s why I limit exposure. I’m hoping to be surprised at a decline in him.

  85. 85.

    zhena gogolia

    @Kay: According to Mary Trump, his father used to egg him on to torment his brother. Not only wasn’t his bad behavior checked, it was encouraged.

  86. 86.

    Geminid

    @Belafon: Bowman was able to win his first primary in the redrawn 16th, in 2022. He tallied 567% of the vote, and the next two candidates received 23% and 18%. I’ve seen reports that Bowman opponents tried to recruit George Latimer to run in that primary but he declined.

    This winter, New York carried out another round of statewide redistricting. It was thought to make the district somewhat more favorable to Bowman.

  89. 89.

    jonas

    @satby: I have a feeling what a lot of business and tech leaders would like to see is Trump in the WH, but with Dems in charge of Congress. That would guarantee nothing but chaos and gridlock for four years. Trump wouldn’t get to blow up everything he wants to, but it would also mean no meaningful tax reform, or environmental or financial regulations/oversight for a while. They could go hog wild and not be held accountable for anything. Ka-ching!

    They don’t support Trump’s policies per se, but would welcome the opportunity to destroy the planet and fleece their customers without any pesky interference.

  90. 90.

    Layer8Problem

    @Kay:  Flatfooted criticism of Israel was not going to help, not in lower Westchester and certainly not in the original district lines.  This area (Bowman’s current district map is just above mine) does not march in lockstep behind Netanyahu, in fact there’s been quite a range of opinions on the whole mess.  It could have been accomplished with less damage, but needed a deft touch and Bowman simply did not have that.  Losing unions as an incumbent Democrat was incomprehensible.

    AIPAC will dance around waving Bowman’s loss proclaiming their unstoppable power and influence, but they do that anyway.  Bowman didn’t have J Street behind him either.  Too many own goals.

  91. 91.

    tam1MI

    Looking at comments about Bowman’s loss around the blog-o-sphere, there are two statements I hear over and over again:

    1. He voted against the infrastructure bill, and

    2. He accused female Jewish victims of the October attacks of lying about being raped.

    Number 2 is just… WHAT THE HELL?!?!?!

  93. 93.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @zhena gogolia:

    Fred Trump was a monster. I don’t necessarily want to go all “sins of the father” on TCFFG, because he’s a monster in his own right, but bullying and tormenting was definitely modeled for him from infancy. (And the mother was absent during some of his crucial childhood development years, so there was no mitigating maternal presence.)

  96. 96.

    PAM Dirac

    For those of you worried that Larry Hogan might steal a Senate seat in Maryland,  the Baltimore Banner is reporting that Hogan is 11 points behind Alsobrooks. People like him well enough, but not as senator. It’s just a poll and in June at that, but if presidential polls have you worried, you should get at least a little joy in this poll.

  100. 100.

    Cacti

    Latimer during the campaign to Bowman:

    “Your constituency is Dearborn.  Your constituency is San Francisco.”

    He sounds great.

  102. 102.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @tam1MI: Many Progressives have downplayed the reports of systematic sexual violence by Hamas on 10/7.  They either WhatAbout pivot to examples of IDF atrocities (which are also horrible), say that Hamas’ atrocities are somehow irrelevant or old news, claim they were somehow justified “Resistance”, claim they didn’t happen or just say nothing.  All of which are pretty gross ways to respond, especially for people who make a big show of being strident Feminists.

    You can staunchly criticize Israel, advocate for a Cease Fire AND acknowledge Hamas’ atrocities and show empathy for Jewish/Israeli People for 10/7.  See AOC for just one example.

    Bowman stepped over the line big time and I’m guessing that shit was at least part of why he lost.  Normie Dem voters aren’t down with that extreme denial of sexual violence.  It’s just not a good look and any skilled politician should have known that.

  103. 103.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @zhena gogolia:

    Same. But even the remotest little shreds of pity or compassion that might have been lurking within me at one point are now just … whoof! … gone.

  104. 104.

    jonas

    @Layer8Problem: AIPAC will dance around waving Bowman’s loss proclaiming their unstoppable power and influence, but they do that anyway.  Bowman didn’t have J Street behind him either.  Too many own goals.

    I think that’s right. It’s also worth pointing out that the AIPAC-funded anti-Bowman campaign didn’t explicitly attack him on his anti-Israel rhetoric — it was mostly about how he didn’t support the Biden agenda, essentially amplifying the union opposition.

  105. 105.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @PAM Dirac:

    For those of you worried that Larry Hogan might steal a Senate seat in Maryland,  the Baltimore Banner is reporting that Hogan is 11 points behind Alsobrooks.

    That is such great news.  I’ll be massively disappointed if somebody like Tester loses in a place like MT (and ecstatic if he wins) but MD sending a GQP senator down the road to DC would be awful.

  106. 106.

    Kay

    @Cacti:

    The Dearborn stuff is definitely a dog whistle. The switch really doesn’t matter in the House though, unless it turns out that Bowman won the majority of the AA vote – then it’s a wedge in the Dem coalition and Latimer’s Right wing donors are playing a longer (and ugly) game.

  107. 107.

    Geminid

     

     

    @jonas: This primary was “nationalized” by different groups for different reasons.

    That has tended to obscure its local nature, and the fact that George Latimer is a very capable, hardworking and popular politician. From Westchester DemocratTom Watson:

       The Bowman campaign’s ham-handed attempts to paint Bowman as a MAGA or racist backfired badly. Why? Because a huge percentage of primary voters know George personally. And he has a very liberal voting record. You can’t tell people the sky ain’t blue.

    Watson repeated a post by another district resident who described how Latimer is a formidable retail politician, constantly appearing at Westchester events and apparently remembering everyone by name.

    The writer quoted one local official who told him that when he occasionally determined that he needed to discuss something with Latimer, he didn’t bother calling because he knew Latimer would show up in a day or so anyway.

  108. 108.

    tam1MI

    @Kay: Aside from AIPAC, who, according to the reporting I have seen, didn’t donate to Latimer, just ran ads against Bowman (a fine distinction, I know), were there any right wing donors to Latimer? Once again, according to the reporting I have seen, Latimer is a solid center-left Dem.

  111. 111.

    Kay

    @tam1MI:

    Yes.

    What does a Long Island Republican who ran to replace George Santos have in common with a Westchester Democrat in a solidly blue congressional district? More than 60 donors who, all told, have given both candidates more than $230,000.

    And the unifying factor in both races appears to be the candidates’ staunch support for Israel.

     

     

    I don’t know what the AA voter split was though. It’s just an ordinary Right wing tactic to split the D coalition along a line of two minority groups, so that could be the play.

  112. 112.

    Cacti

    @tam1MI:  He was recruited to run by AIPAC, who was still fuming that Bowman had originally ousted another one of their shills, Eliot Engel.

  113. 113.

    Kay

    @Cacti:

    Agree. It’s the “Palestinian Exception” for bigotry and religious discrimination among Democrats, as the protestors say. For some reason it’s just fine and dandy to do to Muslims or Arabs.

  114. 114.

    Geminid

    @catclub: I don’t think Bowman was targeted through redistricting. In any case, it wouldnt have been by enemies in Albany because the map Albany Democrats drew was thrown out by New York’s highest court, and a special master ended up drawing the 2022 map.

    Because New York lost a seat through Reapportionment, that round of redistricting result in a lot of changes to New York’s congressional map. Earlier this year, Albany Democrats succeeded in bringing a second round of redistricting. A state commission got the first shot, and then Democrats made some relatively small changes. One change added some more Bronx voters to the 16th CD, and was thought to favor Rep. Bowman.

  115. 115.

    Kay

    @Cacti:

    I think Trump is going to attack Biden on support for Israel Thursday, and use Netanyahu and Fetterman to do it. Republicans know it’s a wedge they can use on the Right side of the Party. It’s perfect for Trump – the scary ooga booga brown Muslim hordes coming for the Christians and Jewish people. His base will eat it up and (some) Right leaning Dems will go for it too.

    It makes me feel sorry for Biden – he risked so much with the blank check Israel support –  but also furious at him for being such a punching bag.

  117. 117.

    Kay

    Although Trump might be thinking he can pick up some of “Dearborn” which he desperately needs – so maybe doesn’t make sense to attack Biden on it.

  118. 118.

    Geminid

    I think having Lattimore on the ballot this November tends to blunt the Gaza wedge issue, while Bowman would have sharpened it. Mondaire Jones is trying to flip the neighboring district in north Westchester County, while John Avlon will try to flip NY01 across Long Island Sound, and both are better off running alongside Lattimore than they would be with Bowman.

  119. 119.

    Kay

    My electrician son lives in Toledo – Toledo has a “Little Syria” and the city quietly took a lot of Syrian refugees with almost no fuss or screaming. One of his apprentices is a Syrian kid who came here as a refugee when he was 10. The kid told my son that his mother believes he (the kid) is in college, although he’s actually in a 5 year apprenticeship to be a journeyman. As a mom I find this both funny and a little sad- what we do to them with our expectations. I wonder if he’ll ever tell her.

  120. 120.

    rikyrah

    @Kay:

    He can tell her after he’s finished with the apprenticeship and the money begins to flow in.  He needs to get himself an LLC and some business cards. Give them to his mother to hand out to her friends. Start that side hustle of being the electrician for the community.

    When I tell you that I wish I knew young men in the trades.

    I’m at an age where all the ‘ handymen’ that I knew have retired or about to to retire. Only one left is the guy who is coming for my Air Conditioner.

     

    I had one for everything:

    Electrician

    Plumber

    Washer/Dryer

    General can do anything Handyman

     

    But, they’re all retired now.

  121. 121.

    Soprano2

    @CaseyL: According to TPM, a surprising amount of voters mentioned that stupidity with the fire alarm, believe it or not. They were mad because it was finally penetrating into national reporting what a shitshow the R’s are, and then Bowman did that and the reporting immediately snapped back to “bothsides”, and they were mad about that. I think he just wasn’t representative of his district anymore, and Latimer took advantage of that.

  122. 122.

    JML

    @Soprano2: I’m guessing it’s one of those things that’s not determinative on it’s own, but when collected with other moves make it easy to categorize someone as a eff-up that you don’t want representing you. Bad vote on infrastructure, lack of nuance on Israel/Gaza, changed district, poor constituent service…and then you throw in the fire alarm nonsense? that’s tough to overcome for a top politician and Bowman hadn’t shown he was great. Throw in a well-known opponent who was very good at retail politics and it’s not hard to do the math.

    I tend to agree that it wasn’t AIPAC money that won this for Latimer. He was already losing and in deep trouble before they ran a single ad. Did it make it nigh-impossible for Bowman to make a comeback? Probably, but he was behind the 8-ball for a long time.

    redistricting was massive here.

  124. 124.

    Geminid

    @JML: In 2022, Rep. Bowman won his first primary in the redrawn district, and went on to win reelection easily; his only opponent ran on the Conservative line and Republicans did not field a candidate. Albany Democrats made changes in that map earlier this year and Bowman was thought to benefit to some extent.

    He still would have been better off if the district hadn’t been redrawn. But with New York losing a seat through reapportionment, NYC districts were inevitably pushed north.

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