Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When I was faster i was always behind.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

“A king is only a king if we bow down.” – Rev. William Barber

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

The world has changed, and neither one recognizes it.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” was supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 861: Russia Ramps Up the Bombardment of Kharkiv & Dnipro

War for Ukraine Day 861: Russia Ramps Up the Bombardment of Kharkiv & Dnipro

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, it took me three tries to spell housekeeping correctly. So we’ll see how the rest of tonight’s update goes.

Second, Rosie is still doing well during her second week off between the second and third rounds of chemo. Round three starts Monday. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Third, my answer to hrprogressive’s question last night was meant to simply answer the question. I do appreciate the kind words. And you are all most welcome.

As of 7:35 PM EDT, most of northern Ukraine, with the exception of Kyiv Oblast, is under air raid alert.

Russia opened up on Kharkiv and Dnipro again today.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Are Preparing for the NATO Summit in Washington, Including from the Perspective of Patriots for Ukraine – the Address by the President of Ukraine

3 July 2024 – 19:50

Dear Ukrainians!

Rescue operations after the Russian missile strike in Dnipro have been continuing all day long. More than 50 people were injured. All of them are getting the necessary assistance. For now, 5 people have been reported killed. My condolences to their families and friends.

Several buildings, a hospital, and an enterprise were damaged in Dnipro. There have also been missile strikes on our other regions: guided aerial bombs aimed at Kharkiv and our frontline positions.

There is only one way we can stop all of this: more air defense systems, more long-range strikes on the Russian terrorists’ bases, on their airbases. We are actively communicating about all this with our partners – at all levels. We are preparing for the NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., including from the perspective of Patriots for Ukraine.

Today I held several meetings on our communication with partners – on plans for this July. There will be important negotiations. Some progress has also been made on new security agreements for Ukraine. I am grateful to our team for this work.

Today, I held several meetings with Government officials: Prime Minister Shmyhal, First Deputy Prime Minister Svyrydenko, Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov, Minister of Finance Marchenko. We already have clear details of new solutions for Ukrainians – new programs that will help people in this time of electricity shortages, as well as stabilize mobile communications. Now we need maximum opportunities to ensure generation – to create a new decentralized generation, and there will be financial resources for this. In the near future, Government officials will announce all the details.

One more thing. Today I spoke with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi – there was a report on the frontline situation. I also spoke with Minister of Defense Umerov – about his contacts in America and about new packages for Ukraine.

Today, I had a meeting with the President of the UN General Assembly and congratulated the new Prime Minister of the Netherlands on the beginning of his work.

I thank everyone who is helping us! I thank everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine and Ukrainians!

Glory to Ukraine!

Dnipro. Russian terrorists have struck our city again. As of now, five people have been killed, and thirty-four injured, including a child. All necessary services are on site, and rescuers are helping all the victims.

Only two things can stop this Russian terror – modern air defense systems and the long-range capabilities of our weapons.

The world can protect lives, and it requires the determination of leaders. Determination that can and must make protection from terror the norm again.

Happy Anti-Aircraft Missile Troops Day!
Thank you for your professionalism and for protecting peaceful cities from russian terror.
Thousands of enemy missiles and drones destroyed — millions of innocent lives saved.

The video shows the combat work of the MIM-104 Patriot in service with 🇺🇦 Anti-Aircraft Missile Troops.
📹: @BackAndAlive

The cost:

The reason:

Nelly is 21 years old. She is a senior mortar gunner.

“There will be no peace without our Crimea, without our Donbas and without our Luhansk region. I was born when Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk were officially ours. I have not visited Crimea, but I really want to go there. I want to travel around Donbas and Luhansk without a mortar, without a machine gun, but as a tourist.
When I find out that Ukraine has won, the first thing I will do is go to the cemetery to visit our Defenders,” she says.

📹: pa. nelli. ka/TikTok

Here’s the details on the next US security assistance package that was announced yesterday:

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine:

(PDA) package valued at up to $150 million and $2.2 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds. (USAI) funding will be used to purchase interceptors for PATRIOT and NASAMS air defense systems for Ukraine.

https://defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3827072/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
July 3, 2024

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This includes the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package valued at up to $150 million to provide Ukraine with key capabilities, including: additional air defense interceptors; artillery and other fires, and anti-tank weapons.

In addition, DoD is announcing a significant package of air defense interceptors using approximately $2.2 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds. This funding will be used to purchase interceptors for PATRIOT and NASAMS air defense systems for Ukraine. As previously announced, the Biden Administration plans to accelerate delivery of these munitions by re-sequencing upcoming Foreign Military Sales deliveries for Ukraine. As a result, Ukraine will be provided with the interceptors it urgently needs to protect its people and critical infrastructure against Russia’s aerial attacks.

The PDA package is the Biden Administration’s sixtieth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

The capabilities in the PDA package include:

  1. Missiles for HAWK air defense systems;
  2. Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  3. 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
  4. 81mm mortar rounds;
  5. Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  6. Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
  7. Small arms ammunition and grenades;
  8. Demolitions equipment and munitions;
  9. Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
  10. Tactical air navigation systems and aircraft support equipment; and,
  11. Spare parts, maintenance, and other field and ancillary equipment.

The United States will continue to work together with some 50 Allies and partners to ensure Ukraine’s brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression.

Chasiv Yar:

It is important to remember, that Chasiv Yar was one of the “prepared” by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) fallback sites. It appears part of the strategy here was to pull the Russians into a location – in this case Chasiv Yar – and use it as a kill zone.

Donetsk Oblast:

 

Henichesk, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

On June 30, 2024, a missile strike targeted the command post of the Dnepr group of troops near Henichesk, occupied Kherson region. The attack involved two HIMARS MLRS missiles with cluster warheads, hitting a two-story administrative building used as a command center.

The strike resulted in 5 fatalities and 12 injuries. Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, the commander of the Dnepr group, was wounded. A special commission is investigating the incident, suspecting a mole, as the strike occurred shortly after Teplinsky’s arrival.

For you drone and HIMAR enthusiasts:

Obligatory:

This is something we’ll need to keep an eye on as it fits the pattern we’ve been seeing in Europe:

An explosion at the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems’ plant in Camden, United States today injured at least two people.

The Camden plant houses more than 880,000 square feet of manufacturing and storage space, and it supports military programs such as the Hellfire and Javelin missiles and various mortar munitions.

https://apnews.com/article/general-dynamics-camden-defense-facility-16b98c88d1670709fcc7869c0563dad3

From the Associated Press:

CAMDEN, Ark. (AP) — An explosion at a defense weapons plant in Arkansas injured at least two people Wednesday and left another missing, the facility’s operators said.

The explosion happened at the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems’ plant in Camden, about 86 miles (138 kilometers) south of Little Rock, a company spokesperson said. The company initially called it an “incident involving pyrotechnics” but later confirmed it was an explosion.

“At this time, we are working with first responders and can confirm the incident resulted in at least two injuries and one missing individual,” Berkley Whaley with General Dynamics said in a statement. “We are cooperating fully with the authorities as they conduct their investigation.”

Whaley also confirmed that production was paused at the building where the explosion occurred.

The company did not provide details on the extent of the injuries. The state Department of Emergency Management said it was monitoring and stood ready to assist but did not provide additional details.

One patient was treated at the Ouachita County Medical Center’s emergency room and is stable, said Diane Isaacs, the hospital’s risk manager. Another patient was flown out of the state by helicopter, she said.

For instance, this just happened in Finland:

Here’s the machine translation from New Finland:

According to police chief Seppo Kolehmainen, special events that have emerged around Finland are under the supervision of the central crime police. The police have been monitoring the situation from the perspective of hybrid influence since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

During the summer, news has been published about several burglaries and attempted burglaries at water supply plants around Finland. In Pirkanmaa, the central crime police have under investigation a total of three burglaries made at water supply sites.

Turun Sanomat two water treatment plants located in the Southern Finland emergency centre area were also broken into in June.

Uusimaaaccording to the magazine, the Porvoo water reserve has been broken into two consecutive nights in June. Evening Messages has reported on attempted burglary of the Sipoo water water tower.
Chief police officer Seppo Kolehmainen tells Uusi Suomi that the police are following crime against critical infrastructure closely and that they take events seriously.

He describes the burglaries as exceptional, because the fractures to waterworks in remote locations are rather atypical. There is rarely anything worth stealing in them, Kolehmainen explains.

”Since the start of the war in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, we have been monitoring and analysing the situation all the time”, Kolehmainen says.

The investigation of water supply burglaries is carried out in Pirkanmaa by the central crime police (krp), which also monitors the overall situation nationwide.

”We have approximately the entire personnel following certain intelligence issues and they are compiled into a report in the central crime police, which makes it possible to assess the current operating environment”, Kolehmainen says.

Kolehmainen points out that drinking water represents ”valtava’s important critical infrastructure” both in Finland and elsewhere.

”Yes, this awake has to be”, he says.

The chief police officer bundles illogical burglaries, passers-by and drone flying near critical infrastructure, which has already been seen in Finland. He mentions infiltrations inside water utilities, strange hippies near gas plants and in electricity production, drones above a nuclear power plant, and strange fires, such as the ignition of Posti’s sorting center.

” I mean that there are many such observations in an environment where someone has to be awake because of the overall picture that, wait, something is happening here now. A report of these will be compiled in the central crime police.”

And a bit more on this sabotage and subversion campaign from the Thread Reader app:

European NATO countries’ security isn’t separate from that of Ukraine.

The better the war goes for Russia, the more capacity it has free to stir up incidents in other countries – likely below the threshold of armed conflict but it’s a quite direct threat nevertheless.

Example from Finland: we had a peaceful year after submitting the NATO application as Russia was bogged down in Ukraine. Since fall 2023, after the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive, we’ve seen:
– instrumentalized migration
– several attempts at sabotage at water supply 

– attempted break-ins (at least one successful) at other critical infrastructure, such as electricity supply.

These are almost daily in the news at the moment. 

In Sweden and Norway attempts at photographing security sites and critical infrastructure (often with drones) have been recorded. GPS basically doesn’t work in our region.

So yep there’s a correlation between how the war is going for Russia and the frequency and magnitude 

These incidents aren’t even only happening in Russia’s direct vicinity but also in France and Germany – in case I need to list countries that count.

Russian aggressive interference against France’s interests was the reason why Macron did such a volte face in his policy. 

Here’s a recent report from our Nordic-Baltic region, in case @hanskundnani is interested in what kind of an actor Russia actually is, instead of making this about some foreign policy analysts’ prestige. 

@hanskundnani …and here’s the report. We’re already observing a massive ramping up of all these activities and our report is nowhere near exhaustive.

Particularly good to keep an eye on what’ Russia is doing on Svalbard.

@hanskundnani And, please note, all of this is happening while the U.S. is still committed to NATO. So this isn’t as simple as “US commitment vs. Ukraine”. 

The Russian Baltic fleet:

One of the most modern missile ships of the Russian navy was set on fire from the inside, and secret documents were stolen: a Russian military officer voluntarily defected to the Ukrainian side.

A Russian citizen with the call sign “Goga” served in the Russian Baltic Fleet and allegedly wanted to quit because of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. In 2023, he turned to the GUR’s I Want to Live project. Since then, he helped Ukrainian intelligence agencies and organized a sabotage on the Serpukhov ship. Together with the secret documents, “Goga” was taken out of the territory of the Russian Federation by the Ukrainian intelligence agencies, the GUR said.

📹: Radio Svoboda

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok.

@patron__dsns

Щастя не в грошах! Воно у гумових качечках 🌝 #песпатрон

♬ yes to heaven slowed – whitelinesprettybabyy

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Happiness is not in money! It is in rubber ducks 🌝 #песпатрон

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

46Comments

  1. 1.

    Chet Murthy

    Adam, I don’t say this enough, but I am deeply grateful for your long-running seminar[1] on Russia’s war of aggression against the West and all who adhere to the West, including Ukraine.  I can’t say that your education has made me feel better — quite to the contrary.  But at least, it’s made me feel like I can see the world for what it is.

    Sigh.  Heavy, heavy sigh.  But overlaid on all that: Thank You.

    P.S. I came to it in 2015 or so.  I have no idea how long you’ve been running it for.  But you’re coming up on (at least) a decade now.  I feel privileged to have been able to attend.

  3. 3.

    Chris

    Adam, can I trouble you with a (mostly) not Russia related question?

    Was reading about the Libyan Civil War and specifically Haftar’s push to take the whole country a few years back, and it brought back a question I had at the time: why is it that almost every foreign power involved was behind him?

    IIRC, the Egypt-GCC alignment supported him. Russia supported him (which I assume means the “Shi’a Crescent” did too, as they tend to be Russia-aligned). France was the Western power most involved, and they also supported him. The only big foreign player that was against him was Turkey.

    What was it about that guy that made so many foreigners, many of whom normally never back the same side, come together behind him? The only times you see anything like that level or consensus are usually when something like Daesh rears its head, which I don’t think was the case here (islamists in Libya show up on both sides as well as none, I believe). So what was the deal?

    (No rush on an answer – it’s not like this is current events).

  5. 5.

    Chris

    @Chet Murthy:

    I appreciate it a lot because not a lot of people even try to look at how all the pieces fit together like he does, especially on major international conflicts and U.S. domestic politics. So much commentary in more “sophisticated” places feels like it’s missing most of the picture. Like, imagine discussing French politics in the early forties without mentioning the fact that there’s a German army putting its thumb on every scale in the country. Or discussing French-German relations in the late thirties without mentioning the fact that like half of the French political spectrum would literally rather be under German management.

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    As Russia has been carrying out physical sabotage operations in Europe since before the current invasion, & seems to have been escalating in recent months, the least the US & NATO can do is let the Ukraine intelligence agencies & the Russian resistance they work w/ to attack more militarily relevant targets in Russia. They’ve had many successes to date already, drown Russia in a sea of fire (as long as civilians & civilian infrastructure are not targeted, & collateral damage minimized).

    Russia really does represent a unique threat to any semblance of world order. Iran mostly targets Israeli interests around the world, & I don’t think they have carried out physical attacks nearly as often as Russia. NK is mostly doing cybercrimes for hard currency.

    We also don’t want Great Power Competition to turn hot by making physical sabotage & cyber attacks w/in bounds. (No one should be waging Great Power Competition, in any case, but that is for another time.) To prevent any tit for tat w/ Russia from escalating out of control, to prevent Putin from dragging the Western countries down into the mud by claiming “everybody does it now” to the ROW, & to prevent misinterpretation in Beijing that such physical sabotage & cyber attacks are now part of the “rules of the road” for Great Power Competition, DC & other Western capitals need to clearly explain to the public & the world what Russia has been doing, why the Western governments are retaliating (& the extent of the retaliation), & under what circumstances the Western governments will stop retaliating (once Russia ceases & desists from such attacks).

  7. 7.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, … KyivIndependent.com:

    A Ukrainian drone attack on July 1 seriously damaged the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant in Belgorod Oblast, a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent on July 3.

    Ukrainian forces regularly conduct drone strikes and sabotage acts on Russian territory, targeting military assets, oil refineries, and industrial facilities.

    The plant is located in the area of the Stariy Oskol city, nearly 115 km (72 miles) from the Ukraine-Russia border. It is the only full-cycle metallurgical enterprise in Russia, according to the source.

    The facility is vital for the Russian military-industrial complex, the source noted.

    […]

    The Metallurgicheskaya substation near the Volokonovskoye village is one of the largest power substations in Europe, the source said.

    The strikes resulted in a complete blackout at the plant, shutting down all electric arc furnaces with frozen metal inside. The furnaces need to be completely cleaned and the arc elements to be replaced to restart. It could take several months, the source told the Kyiv Independent.

    “Some of the plant’s employees believe that the furnaces will have to be replaced with new ones. Considering that the plant was built by German specialists using German technology, it will likely be difficult to restart the plant’s operations without their participation,” the source added.

    The facility produces high-quality steel, including alloyed specialty steels (SBQ), for the automotive and mechanical engineering industries. It uses the blast-free direct reduction technology MIDREX and electric arc melting.

    The plant’s products are used by GAZ, UAZ, and KamAZ, among other Russian military-industrial enterprises.

    The Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant, as well as its owner, Metalloinvest company, were included in the sanctions lists of the U.S. and U.K. in April 2023 in light of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    [ Hit post too soon ] Thanks Adam and everyone.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  10. 10.

    catclub

    spell housekeeping correctly.

    the word ‘bookkeeper’ has three consecutive sets of double letters.
    it should be bookkeepper

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Chris: The US was backing the GNA – the UN recognized government – until Trump came to office. Trump initially decided we had no interests in Libya, which was part of his isolationism and being “expeditionary” was too expensive and a scam. Eventually he decided to back Haftar, who is also a US citizen.

    Most of the Arab states backing Hafter were doing so to either block the potential for the Muslim Brotherhood establishing a base in Libya (UAE, Egypt) or because they had beef with Qatar, who is the primary backer of the brothers (Saudi). Russia was backing him as part of their subversion campaign in the Sahel in specific and Africa in general. Russia’s support run through Dagalo ala Hemeti in Darfour. I honestly have no idea why Macron was backing him.

  14. 14.

    Gin & Tonic

    Men of the Cloth

    My dear wife has a friend, Fr. M., who serves in a small village, in fact so small that Google Maps doesn’t show it. Made getting there a challenge. What makes him interesting is that in addition to his priestly duties, he also administers a small museum, which is part of the parish home. The museum has two sections: one devoted to traditional folk costumes (my dear wife’s abiding interest) and one to the clandestine church of Soviet times. It is important to note here that after the end of WWII and the imposition of Soviet control, the UGCC took a different path than the russian orthodox church – the former refused all efforts to “reintegrate” with the latter, and went underground, whereas the ROC took the ass-kissing path which it is still on, as evidenced by warmonger Patriarch Kirill. The refusal to bend a knee, as it were, led to the church’s leader (Josyf Slipyj) being sent to Siberia, where he spent 18 years, and to all church rites being conducted clandestinely.

    The subjugation of the individual churches around the country took some time, in this area up to around 1950. One of the centerpieces of this museum was a painting of Jesus, quite large, maybe 5 by 8 feet. The story is that some time around 1950 it was removed from the cathedral it had hung in and was taken to a newly-established “Museum of Atheism.” At some point a local rabbi (we have to imagine that a rabbi there in 1950 didn’t have much of a congregation) saw it lying on the floor, and while others were distracted he cut it out of its frame, rolled it up and snuck it out. It was preserved somewhere until the collapse of the Soviet Union, when open worship was allowed again, and then re-framed and is now preserved in the museum along with many artifacts of the ~40 years of secret Christianity. Fr. M. is young, so was openly ordained and has no direct memory of these times, but feels a debt to his predecessors.

    On another day we met for coffee with Fr. I., whom I’ve known for nearly 20 years, since we worked on a complex project together. In writing about him I kept thinking of the Ray Charles song “If it weren’t for bad luck…” – but that’s probably unfair. His faith is deep and abiding, and he probably views his tests in a different light than I would. But anyway, he was born and raised (and secretly ordained) in D*n*tsk, where he lived when we first met. In the intervening years he was assigned to Avd**vk*, then to B*khm*t, cities that have been wiped off the map. On February 24, 2022, he was a patient at a renowned cardiac clinic in Irp*n – on February 25, UA armed forces destroyed a key bridge there to prevent a russian advance on Kyiv, and we all saw photos of people evacuating over the bridge’s ruins. He was among them, and ended up traveling west. More recently he has been assigned to Dnipr*petr*vsk oblast, and is there now (but traveled for unrelated reasons to the location where we met up with him.) Despite everything, a remarkably positive person, with always a kind and sympathetic word.

    Both spoke of the numbers of their parishioners who’ve left the country. When I asked “do you suppose they’ll return?” they both immediately and emphatically said “no.” Obviously this is not a stastically significant sample, but it is not a good omen.

    More on Fr. M. next time.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: Thank you very much for the travelogue!

    But why are you half anonymizing the city names even though anyone who follows the current invasion of Ukraine will know them, anyway?

    Also, I am not sure I quite understand the pessimism (& I’ve read plenty in media coverage) wrt the refugees ever returning. When the war ends (it will at some point), & Ukraine is integrating into the West (at the very least the EU), why wouldn’t people return? There should be plenty of opportunities during the reconstruction, opportunities to start anew.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Just as an example of how disconcerting the past week has been, Philips P. O’Brien is among those advocating for Biden to drop out.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: As a US citizen, he is definitely legally bound to pay tax to the IRS on his global incomes. I don’t think there is double taxation exemption treaty between the US & Libya, & I highly doubt Haftar has been paying taxes in Libya.

    Could be a point of leverage if any USG decides to exercise it for whatever reason.

  26. 26.

    Gin & Tonic

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​

    I’m writing the city names that way to reduce the possibility that my posts get indexed in relation to the cities. I know people here know what I’m talking about, but this may confuse the bots. It’s my tinfoil hat talking.

    The pessimism about returning is simply that some of these people, in the intervening years, will already have established a life elsewhere, which they may prefer – or returning may be too difficult. I was talking with an older man at one point, from the city Adam writes about nearly every day now. His daughter left when the war started and is living in Belgium; she’s had a child there. The man himself turns 60 in August of this year, which will give him clearance to leave (men 25-60 can’t exit the country), so he will go to his daughter. I asked if he had any interest in returning to his city of origin and he replied “I have nothing to return to.” Hard to argue.

  27. 27.

    Bill Arnold

    @Another Scott:

    The strikes resulted in a complete blackout at the plant, shutting down all electric arc furnaces with frozen metal inside.

    That’s an impressively well-targeted attack on Russia’s industrial capacities.

  28. 28.

    Chris

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Oh for sure. And the sheer number of international supporters backing him is one of the things that made his failure to close the deal so spectacular. “Random warlord fails to seize government,” that’s one thing. “Favorite proxy of Paris, Moscow, Cairo, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Blackwater fails to seize government,” that’s… something else.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: Given the power of AI algorithms these day, I think you need to obscure the city names much more, if that is your concern. I don’t think anyone here needs to know or even be able to guess at the locations, certainly not in ways that might put anyone in danger.

    As for the pessimism, I appreciate the elaboration, but you never know. Before the 1997 handover of Hong Kong to the PRC, a lot of middle to upper class Hong Kongers sought to escape the perceived impending doom by leaving for Canada, the UK, & Australia before that date. However, w/ the relatively light touch that Beijing adopted until the mid-’10s (before the Umbrella Movement of ’14), & Hong Kong’s booming economy on the back of the PRC’s economic boom, enticed a lot of them to return in the late ’90s & ’00s, despite having put down roots abroad. Some left spouses & children overseas, some returned w/ their families, but kept their foreign passports & green cards as a back up. It got to a point where in the late ’10s something like 1 out of every 6 Hong Kong resident had a foreign passport, and we are not talking about the meaningless “British National Overseas” passport. (Which played into the paranoia of the CPC regime wrt foreign interference & instigation, some of the most prominent leaders of the ’19 protest movement were Canadian/British citizens.)

    Of course, w/ the severe clamp down on political speech & organization since ’19, many of these people are leaving again, replaced by new arrivals from the Mainland.

    So, as long as Ukraine post-war is viewed as a dynamic place w/ a lot of potential in the process of being realized, plenty of people will come/return, & the Ukrainian expatriates being the most able to benefit from such development (because they bring w/ them connections from the West). There will be hucksters & charlatans among them looking to make a quick buck, but that is inevitably part of the landscape anywhere. So, I would not be so pessimistic.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chris: It seems Qatar & Türkiye were simply more committed to their guys. KSA & the UAE haven’t shown much capability in military adventurism.

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Speaking of Haftar:

    Chinese Wing Loong Drones Disguised As Wind Turbines Seized By Italy
    With wrappers and labels suggesting they were wind turbine parts, the drones were supposed to beat the UN arms embargo on Libya.

    THOMAS NEWDICK
    POSTED ON JUL 3, 2024 3:59 PM EDT
    6 MINUTE READ

    Probably a deal facilitated by the UAE or the KSA, both are large users of the Wing Loong II, & the UAE supplied the LNA w/ the drone in the past & operated them on the latter’s behalf, as opposed to an official deal by the PRC government or the state owned manufacturer. Algeria, Egypt & Nigeria are also users.

  33. 33.

    Wombat Probability Cloud

    @YY_Sima Qian: This was disappointing but my first thought was to wonder why he thinks he’s an expert in the mechanics of elections in the US. He mentioned bad polls but didn’t cite them, so didn’t gain any credibility in this realm. Excellent with his other posts but, like Krugman, I don’t think this is his wheelhouse.

  35. 35.

    Carlo Graziani

    Idle musing, untainted by real information:

    Russia has maintained an offensive footing all year so far. They’ve exchanged massive materiel and personnel losses for territorial gains that amount to a village (or half of one) here and there. There have been no breakthroughs, no routs, and in a few places their gains have actually been reversed. It does not seem materially possible that they could maintain this sort of pressure indefinitely, given their ghastly losses, however unmindful the Kremlin may be of the price paid for their pitiful gains. Russian combat power has limits, and their current operations tempo raises serious sustainability questions.

    This kind of situation has historical analogs in the antecedents to surprise counteroffensives. The pattern is, absorb enemy assaults, allow them to exhaust themselves while building up offensive reserves, then use those reserves to strike hard in a vulnerable place when the enemy has shot his bolt.

    Ukraine was to a large extent holding its own even when the US supply spigot was off, and now there are billions of dollars of supplies flowing, and, one hopes, a better-managed mobilization program. Some part of those resources are no doubt being husbanded for some future purpose. The Ukrainian army has shown itself capable of this kind of operational patience in the past.

    2023 was filled with anticipation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive that, in the event, culminated early, and brought few rewards, since the Russians were waiting for them in the Surovikhin lines. There is nowhere near that sort of expectation for 2024. However, the Russians have now left their defensive lines behind, and it may be useful to recall the 2022 campaign, where the Russians staggered forwards counting on their mass, only to get sliced up like rib roasts at Dnipro and Kharkhiv.

    So, that’s the exercise here. Suppose that the UA is planning to retake the initiative this year: where and when might its purpose manifest itself?

    My bingo card says “Orkhiv-Tokmak-Melitopol, to isolate Crimea, mid-August” but of course that’s a WAG. This may all be a dream. But it’s a pleasant dream.

  36. 36.

    Wombat Probability Cloud

    @YY_Sima Qian: I’m no expert, by any stretch of the imagination, but I thought it was irresponsible of him to make these assertions without clear attribution. He seemed caught up in the  OMG-we-have-to-replace-Biden press wave. I’m not overly impressed by an assertion that he once taught US politics.

  38. 38.

    Geminid

    @Chris: Turkiye’s M.I.T. intelligence agency played a key role in defeating Haftar and his allies. They flew Bayraktar TB-2 and other drones while bringing in mercenaries recruited from their allies in Syria. They also trained and advised the government forces. At one point Turkiye’s Grand National Assembly authorised sending Turkish Army units but fighting died down not long after and few were sent. Turkish Navy ships also carried out fire missions against Haftar forces near the coast.

    This all occurred under President Erdogan’s authority, but the architect was M.I.T. head Hakan Fidan, who is now Erdogan’s capable Foreign Minister.

  39. 39.

    Anoniminous

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​
     
    Went to his Wikipedia page and found these opening words of the second paragraph:

    His books include the revisionist history How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II (2015) which concluded that superiority in the air and on the sea on an “Air-Sea Super Battlefield” of thousands of miles, rather than battles on land, determined the outcome of the war.

    [emphasis added]

    Plain & Simple and Fancy-Dancer Wrong.

    He’s a fool. Ignore him.

  40. 40.

    LanceThruster

    I’ve don’t know that I’ve ever gotten used to the concept of worthy and unworthy victims in war reporting. What is happening in Gaza is like a nationwide Milgram Experiment. There’s something so sinister about genocide not being a red line with some as if surrounded by body snatchers or They Live! without the glasses.

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: This year? The Ukrainian Army is in no shape to launch a ground offensive year, maybe not next year. Most of the aid rushed to Ukraine have to been to address the dire shortages in munitions: SAMs, artillery rounds, HIMARS rockets, ATACMS, precision guided aerial bombs, to help Ukraine short up its defense & prevent further Russian advances. The F-16s have not arrived, yet, & it will take a while to get them in any kind of numbers. No significant new armor or mechanized vehicles, & artillery have arrived, unlike throughout winter/spring ’23. No reports for rebuilding exhausted & attritted brigades or formations of new ones. None of these activities could be hidden in the modern media & social media environment. If anything, the Ukrainian Army is in worse share this year to conduct major offensive operations than last year. There is still no solution yet for the Russian defenses in depth.

    Fortunately, even though the Russian industry is supposedly on war footing, the results have been underwhelming. They are still have to rely up on NK supply to supplement their artillery and ballistic missile stock. They are still relying up on Iranian supply to supplement their attack drones stock. The fire rates of ballistic & cruise missiles & attack drones waxes & wanes, no indication of a significant increase in production or procurement rate. They are still rapidly drawing down their Cold War era storage of armor & artillery, w/ little new builds, & new build of aircraft has also been quite slow (I think losses outstripping replacements). They are still buying civilian buggies (not exactly complex high tech gear) from a PRC company that makes them for farm use, & at lot of the motorcycles now being used appear to be Cold War era Soviet copies of WW II era German designs. For all of the talk of Russian defense industry capacity, & massive assistance from the PRC & other sanction busting routes to dual use sectors, I don’t see much evidence of an impact on the battlefield. It’s one of those claims that makes sense conceptually, but seems to have a gap w/ observed reality.

    My WAG is that Russia has enough war making capacity to slowly bleed Ukraine (& bleed itself) in a stalemate, defend & consolidate its hold on the occupied territories, & bide for time for more favorable geopolitical environment. Outlast the will of Ukraine’s Western supporters, so to speak. Right now, the far right already hold power in Hungary, Slovakia, Sweden, Italy, & the Netherlands, & rising fast in France, Germany & Romania. Some of them remain committed to opposing Putin, such as Sweden & Italy (for the time being in the latter case), but others can get wobbly quickly. Then there is the prospect of the return of Trump to the WH, and/or the Rs taking the majority of both chambers of Congress…

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Anoniminous: Thanks for noting that! I had only read his commentaries on the War in Ukraine, where he has been steadfast supporter of the Ukrainian cause.

  44. 44.

    Sally

    @YY_Sima Qian: I have read many refugees saying they and their children are settled in their new countries, happy with their new lives, and don’t want to uproot again. Some will feel, like G&T  noted, they have nothing to return to. Or that it would be too painful.

  46. 46.

    wjca

    @Sally:

    Likely many Ukranian refugees will, as you say, not return.  On the other hand, many will return.  Some for political, philosophical, or cultural reasons.  Some for financial reasons — to get in on the rebuilding boom.  Even those who don’t return will provide a diaspora contributing from a distance to the rebuilding.

    In contrast, I don’t see the Russians who fled being anywhere near as motivated to return.  Even if a defeated Russia undergoes a big political and economic transformation. Some will, because it remains “home.”  But return visits seem at least as likely as permanent relocation back.  And as for a supportive diaspora?  Not seeing it.

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