Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself. We’re allowed to grow past that.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

Somebody needs to explain to DeSantis that nobody needs to do anything to make him look bad.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

It’s not hopeless, and we’re not helpless.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Fight them, without becoming them!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 862: Kyiv Under Attack

War for Ukraine Day 862: Kyiv Under Attack

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping notes. Rosie is still doing great. And she and Ruby are chilling despite the non-professional fireworks in the area.

The Russians started attacking Kyiv this morning:

Kyiv was on Putin’s mind today, so I’m sure this was just coincidental.

⚡️‼️ The secret of why Kyiv was not taken in three days was finally revealed by Putin!

He said that when Russian troops were standing near Kyiv, the Western partners asked Russia to cease fire. And it did. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not. Russia was deceived, says Putin.

Therefore, Putin continues that Russia, the aggressor, “simply cannot declare a ceasefire right now.”

I am asking again — if Putin’s doing so fine with his war on Ukraine and if Ukraine is “doomed” and if “resistance is futile” — why is he now taking about “ceasefire” and a “peace deal” virtually on the daily basis?

I guess the answer is that the dictator who unleashed the largest European war since WWII and sent hundreds of thousands into a meat grinder to die for his megalomaniac ego has suddenly realized himself as a high-minded person whose heart bleeds for the dead of war on both sides every second, and thus he wants to stop that madness by choosing peace over himself.

Right?

Kyiv is still under air raid alert, it’s been under alert almost all day. Right now – 9:31 PM EDT – Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Odesa, and Kharkiv Oblasts are all under air raid alerts.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Very Important Decisions Were Made; Time Will Reveal These Decisions on the Frontline – Address by the President of Ukraine

4 July 2024 – 20:39

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief summary of the day.

I held a meeting of the Staff – a long one, and among the key topics in today’s reports were drones and electronic warfare. We discussed production in Ukraine, financing, supply, and usage. All the specifics – starting from the most in-demand items on the front, particularly FPV drones. Of course, we also paid maximum attention to our long-range drones. We listened to the reports by Commander Sukharevskyi, Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov, Minister for Strategic Industries Kamyshin and Commander of the Air Force Oleshchuk, and made very important decisions. Time will reveal these decisions on the frontline.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov reported on the details of his trip to the United States, the negotiations, and most importantly, the implementation of the defense packages that have been announced but have not yet been delivered to Ukraine. We are pushing this logistics forward.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on the situation in the main directions, with most of the fighting occurring in the Pokrovsk direction, in our Donetsk region. However, we are strengthening every direction now – from Kharkiv to the southern regions. I am grateful to every brigade, every soldier and commander who are truly resilient and accurate. Especially the 35th separate marine brigade, the 44th and 55th separate artillery brigades, the 71st separate jaeger brigade, the 108th separate territorial defense brigade, and the 110th separate mechanized brigade. Thank you all for your results, warriors!

Today I also held a long meeting on the NATO Summit in Washington, which will take place next week. The summit must be strong – strong for Ukraine and all our partners. A meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council will also take place. We are working on the details of new decisions, new documents to be signed with our partners. There should be positive outcomes, including on air defense.

A new security agreement for Ukraine has also been prepared – a strong agreement that will truly provide support. We will continue to consistently strengthen our entire architecture of security agreements. This is what will guarantee our security until Ukraine joins NATO – a decision that is irreversible.

Today, I also presented state awards to Ukrainian police officers – the best ones, those who protect our country and people in the battles at the front. I thanked them for their service, I extended my gratitude to all their colleagues for their strength for the sake of Ukraine and congratulated them on the National Police Day.

And I would also like to express particular and special gratitude to all Americans – the United States, who are celebrating Independence Day today – for supporting our independence. Nations that endure such challenges for the sake of their freedom, for the sake of their future, understand each other best. I am grateful that for more than two years of full-scale war, we have been defending lives side by side with America and preventing Russia from expanding this war and jeopardizing the independence of other nations of the world. We must and can win this battle here in Ukraine, for our people, for justice for Ukraine, and for all who value life. President Biden, Congress – both parties, both chambers, and all our friends in America – thank you!

Glory to Ukraine!

Happy Fourth of July to all our American friends!

We understand what independence means to you, Americans, and you can see that it means the same thing to us, Ukrainians.

We value independence equally and rely on our brave men and women to defend it. Together, we are creating hope for people all over the world. A hope that freedom will always triumph.

True independence is always the result of won battles, and freedom must be reinforced with victories every time tyranny attempts to destroy it. Different generations of Americans and Ukrainians have witnessed this firsthand, and it is critical that current generations pass on a sense of confident independence and guaranteed freedom to their children and grandchildren.

On this day, we join our trusted ally in recognizing this most sacred value for both of our nations. We do so with deep gratitude for all of the support that the United States has provided and continues to provide to Ukraine in its fight for freedom, independence, and security – not only its own, but that of all free nations.

Thank you, America. Thank you to every American heart that beats in solidarity with brave Ukrainian hearts fighting for independence.

I wish the United States and all Americans strength, unity, and unwavering belief in the triumph of good over evil, liberty over tyranny, and life over terror.

#4thOfJuly

The US:

The US announced additional details on a security assistance package for Ukraine valued at more than $2.3 billion.

The Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package valued at up to $150 million includes:
◾️Missiles for HAWK air defense systems
◾️Ammunition for HIMARS
◾️155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
◾️81mm mortar rounds
◾️TOW missiles
◾️Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
◾️Small arms ammunition and grenades
◾️Demolitions equipment and munitions
◾️Tactical vehicles
◾️Tactical air navigation systems and aircraft support equipment
◾️Spare parts and other equipment

In addition, @DeptofDefense is announcing a significant package of air defense interceptors for PATRIOT and NASAMS systems using approximately $2.2 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds.

We are grateful to our American partners for standing firm with Ukraine. Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

Hungary:

Time for Orban’s annual review.

The Financial Times has the details:

Viktor Orbán is expected to meet Vladimir Putin on Friday just after the Hungarian leader’s first wartime visit to Kyiv in what appears to be an attempt to act as a peace broker between Russia and Ukraine.

One Hungarian and two EU officials confirmed media reports that Orbán would meet Russia’s president on Friday.

Orbán has seen Putin twice since Russia’s leader ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has repeatedly held up EU aid for Kyiv and sanctions on Russia. But as Hungary took over the rotating presidency of the EU on Monday, Orbán made a surprise visit to Ukraine, where he spent three hours with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“I think it is his strategy to listen to both parties,” said one person familiar with the matter.

Charles Michel, the outgoing president of the European Council which represents EU leaders, posted on X on Thursday that “the EU rotating presidency has no mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU”, adding that “Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussions about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine.”

Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, did not respond to a request for comment. Peskov declined to confirm or deny reports that Orbán would visit Moscow to Russian state newswires, but promised Putin’s schedule on Friday would be “eventful”.

Orbán’s visit would be the first by an EU leader to Moscow since Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer made an unsuccessful effort to broker an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in April 2022.

Hungary’s prime minister defied his allies last year when he travelled to Beijing to become the first western leader to meet Putin after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for war crimes against Russia’s leader.

The upcoming trip to Moscow was first reported by Szabolcs Panyi, an investigative journalist with the east European VSquare group.

More at the link.

Here’s the butcher’s bill from yesterday’s attack on Dnipro:

Chasiv Yar:

The BBC takes a deep dive into Russia’s strategy, for lack of a better term, in their “meat” assaults.

On the frontlines, Ukrainian soldiers use a graphic term to describe the Russian tactics they face daily.

They call them “meat assaults”: waves of Russian soldiers coming at their defensive positions, sometimes nearly a dozen times in a day.

Lt Col Anton Bayev of the Khartia Brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard says wave after wave can arrive in just a few hours at front-line positions north of Kharkiv.

“The Russians use these units in most cases purely to see where our firing equipment is located, and to constantly exhaust our units,” he said.

“Our guys stand in positions and fight, and when four or five waves of the enemy come at you in a day, which you have to destroy without end, it is very difficult – not only physically, but also psychologically.”

This tactic has led to staggering Russian casualties since Moscow launched its latest offensive two months ago. Around 1,200 Russian soldiers were being killed or wounded every day in May and June, the highest rate since the beginning of the war, according to Western officials.

Those attacking are normally quickly spotted by drones above and the Russians leave their dead and wounded on the battlefield, Lt Col Bayev says. “Their main task is simply meat assaults and our total exhaustion.”

The tactic is a sign that Russia is seeking to make the most of its key advantage – numbers.

In Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, Captain Ivan Sekach from Ukraine’s 110th Brigade compares what he sees to a conveyor belt bringing Russians to be killed, although still allowing them to push forward slowly.

Russia benefits from a significantly larger population than Ukraine. Some of those in the assaults are former prisoners, but Russia is also able to recruit through making one-off payments, sometimes thousands of dollars.

And there have been complaints from the Russian side about “crippled regiments”, in which wounded soldiers are forced back into fighting. One video shows dozens of men, some on crutches, appealing to their commanders because they say they are wounded and require hospital treatment, but instead are being sent back into combat.

All of this, Western officials say, means Moscow can keep throwing soldiers, even if poorly trained, straight on to the front lines at the same rate they are being killed or wounded.

Ukraine could not match the Russian tactics even if it had the numbers, partly due to a different attitude towards casualties. A senior general was removed in recent weeks after complaints he was using what are often called Soviet tactics – throwing people at the front lines.

“There are a lot of criticisms because we have lost a lot of our guys because of Soviet-type mindset and strategy,” says Ivan Stupak, a former Security Service officer. “We are limited with manpower. We have no other options than thinking of our people.”

In the area around Kharkiv, Russian advances have been stopped. But in the east, Russia’s attritional approach is making slow but steady advances.

“Unfortunately there are a lot of Russians. And they are trying to conduct this rolling operation centimetre by centimetre, inch by inch, 100m per day, 200m per day. And unfortunately, it’s successful for them,” says Stupak.

There is frustration in Kyiv about the pace of Western support. One senior official complains they are receiving enough help to ensure they do not lose but not enough to make sure they win.

Western officials acknowledge 2024 has been a tough year for Ukraine, with delays in the arrival of US military aid creating a major strain on defences which has cost territory and lives.

“It seems like a so-called incremental approach,” Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, told the BBC.

“We receive little by little, and I get the impression that our Western allies give a little bit of weaponry, and they see what happens next, as if they’re afraid of what they refer to as escalation.”

The lifting of restrictions on using US weapons over the border into Russia has made a difference and helped stall Moscow’s assault on Kharkiv.

“If we have to fight with our hands tied behind our back, you know we’ll be only bleeding to death,” says Mr Merezhko. “That’s why it’s crucially important to be allowed to use long range missiles in the territory of Russia, and we already have results.”

But a Ukrainian official said the use of longer range strikes into Russia had only been a palliative and was not fundamentally altering the dynamic of the war.

“We are driving towards stalemate,” former security service officer Ivan Stupak says, acknowledging that this may lead eventually to the “bitter pill” of some form of negotiation.

Ukrainians fear without hard security guarantees – such as Nato membership, rather than vague talk of a bridge to such status – Russia may simply regroup and attack again in the future.

Vladimir Putin is counting on wearing down Ukraine on the battlefield and outlasting the West’s resolve to provide support. As well as launching guided aerial bombs against frontline positions and civilians in Kharkiv, Moscow has also targeted energy infrastructure across the country, leading to increasingly frequent power blackouts and concerns over what winter might bring.

November’s US election adds another layer of uncertainty, along with a question mark as to whether the European Union could realistically pick up any slack.

For Lt Col Anton Bayev on the frontline near Kharkiv, the ability to strike into Russia may have been vital, but he now sees his enemy adapting its tactics – and not just with “meat assaults”.

His losses now come from mortars and glide bombs, while his Ukrainian forces remain short of ammunition.

“We need everything, and there is always a lack,” he says.

“The boys are holding on. We’re all hanging on. It’s hard, but everyone knows the price and why it’s all being done.”

For want of a nail!

A long list of professors of international relations and think tank denizens have published a letter via Politico making Putin’s argument opposing NATO membership for Ukraine.

If these signatories think that the US, let alone NATO, couldn’t defend Ukraine against Russia if it became necessary, then either the US military is in much, much worse shape than I know it to be or they are worried about other things. One, of course, would be Russia escalating up to the tactical use of lower yield nuclear weapons if they start losing. Another is that a number of the signatories are from the Quincy Institute, which was set up to exploit the grief of a bona fide war hero and a deep thinker. He too has signed this letter, but that is not surprising given his foreign policy views. You can click through and read the article and judge for yourself whether their argument has any real legitimacy.

If you were wondering what kind of condition Russian equipment is in, here you go. Though this might just be the result of using that dodgy North Korean ammunition.

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

19Comments

  1. 1.

    Mike in DC

    Adam, thanks for doing this every day.

    Do you think that a Biden(or Dem) 2nd term might result in some favorable adjustments in Ukraine policy?

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    “There are a lot of criticisms because we have lost a lot of our guys because of Soviet-type mindset and strategy,”

    This is the primary criticism of replacing Z with S as commanding general. My friend N is a mid-level officer, who started out as your basic enlisted man right after the full-scale invasion. He gave up his job as marketing director for a consumer-goods company and went straight to the front. Over time his capabilities were recognized and he’s now an officer, and a harsh critic (in private) of General S, for his Soviet training and mindset. Turfing out General Z was, in his view (and mine) a huge blunder on the part of the President, and he still doesn’t understand it. A great deal of respect in the lower-level officer corps has evaporated.

  4. 4.

    Jay

    “Morality and ethics should play no part”: Leaks reveal how Russia’s foreign intelligence agency runs disinformation campaigns in the West
    Michael Weiss,
    Roman Dobrokhotov,
    Christo Grozev

    https://theins.press/en/politics/272870

    It’s a “new” campaign, using “fake news” sites that appear to be legit, along with redirects.

    Basically, a variation on the what the US media is doing with “unnamed” sources.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mike in DC: No. I think that Biden, based on long standing views and principles further reinforced by the effects of Beau’s service leading to his death from brain cancer, is risk averse. I think that his foreign and nat-sec appointees are too. I’d expect that the second term replacements would be similar to the first termers. It just is what it is.

  7. 7.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The Quincy Institute has gone off to the deep end in the past couple of years. It was always a bit unwieldy because its supporters had spanned the entire political spectrum (from Leftists to Libertarians, from peaceniks to Realists, from George Soros to the Kochs), united only by their skepticism of foreign interventionism.

    Which is a shame, since the US FP conventional wisdom could use some balance from the “Restraint” perspective. However, they were flirting w/ Putin apologia since the beginning of the current invasion, & now has fully embraced it. The couple of PRC analysts in the ranks seem to still offer sensible policy advise, warning against the PRC induced moral panic seizing much of the US polity & advocating a mixture of deterrence & reassurance as strategy to attempt to keep the peace. However, even they are rubbing shoulders w/ known reactionaries (think tankers or Congressional staffers) that are play acting at being “Restrainers” (but in actuality either unilateral militarists or Herrenvolk isolationists), holding joint events together. It seems the institution has largely been usurped by the reactionary or reactionary-adjacent types.

    It’s one thing to warn against escalation spiral or unrealistic war aims, it is quite another to fail to see the nature of Putin & his regime, & wish casting him as a Rational Security Maximizer.

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: I was supportive of Harris in the 2020 primaries, but her campaign personnel were a mess. A different type of mess from Sanders’. I have no idea, however, what her nat-sec and foreign policy personnel would be like. Most of her experience in these areas has come over the past 3 and 1/2 years.

  14. 14.

    sanjeevs

    @Jay: It was a massive failure to not attempt to attack the Russian disinfo war when they re-invaded Ukraine.  I think it would have more impact than economic sanctions

  15. 15.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Jay: It’s a “new” campaign, using “fake news” sites that appear to be legit, along with redirects.

    Running some self declared wonder weapon 13 d disinformation campaign is one way to avoid ended up part of a meat wave, I would think.

  16. 16.

    MinuteMan

    I am asking again — if Putin’s doing so fine with his war on Ukraine and if Ukraine is “doomed” and if “resistance is futile” — why is he now taking about “ceasefire” and a “peace deal” virtually on the daily basis?

    It’s a sign of weakness. He’s having trouble trying to bully Europe when his armed forces are in such pathetic shape. He needs a chance to rebuild it back to a credible force.

  17. 17.

    gene108

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I think that Biden, based on long standing views and principles further reinforced by the effects of Beau’s service leading to his death from brain cancer, is risk averse.

    I wonder how much Biden’s risk averse nature regarding Ukraine aid is from watching the U.S. get more and more involved with aiding South Vietnam.

Comments are closed.