(Image by NEIVANMADE)
A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing well. Nothing much new to report. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, just a brief update from the Israel-Hamas war update from earlier today. The news is not as good as Reuters had reported. Basically, Hamas wants some written commitments from the US, Egypt, and Qatar is a problem for Israel, which you can read as a problem for Bibi. Things are much closer than they’ve been, but this is not a done deal. Negotiations are supposed to resume next week.
Back to Ukraine.
Russia seems to be attempting to burn large portions of Ukraine down in addition to blowing them up.
27 пожеж за добу виникло на Херсонщині через ворожі обстріли❗️
Горіло 8 житлових будинків, 10 господарчих споруд, 13 пожеж сухостою загальною площею 22,68 га та пшеничне поле на площі 1 га.
Повторні атаки та палюче сонце не завадили рятувальникам виконати свою роботу💪 pic.twitter.com/DYGzFDhOwB— DSNS.GOV.UA (@SESU_UA) July 4, 2024
27 fires per day broke out in the Kherson region due to enemy shelling ❗️
8 residential buildings, 10 farm buildings, 13 dryland fires with a total area of 22.68 hectares and a wheat field with an area of 1 hectare burned.
Repeated attacks and scorching sun did not prevent rescuers from doing their job 💪
Зранку ворог обстріляв прифронтові м.Куп’янськ та с.Глушківка на Харківщині.
Зруйновано та пошкоджено приватні будинки, господарчі споруди. У Глушківці поранено 4 цивільні особи.
Загальна площа загорань становила близько 270 кв.м. Фахівці ДСНС ліквідували всі пожежі. pic.twitter.com/vl2JB1pw50— DSNS.GOV.UA (@SESU_UA) July 4, 2024
In the morning, the enemy shelled the front-line town of Kupyansk and the village of Hlushkivka in Kharkiv Oblast.
Private houses and commercial buildings were destroyed and damaged. 4 civilians were injured in Hlushkivka.
The total area of the fires was about 270 sq.m. Specialists of the State Emergency Service extinguished all fires.
Це фото однієї з пожеж, яка сталася за межами м.Новий Буг Баштанського району на Миколаївщині. Горів сухостій, разом з ним згоріли й пташенята фазанів…
Цього маленького вогнеборцям вдалось врятувати. Вони віднесли його в безпечне місце.
Сподіваємося, з ним все буде добре🙏 pic.twitter.com/wB0fAr823j— DSNS.GOV.UA (@SESU_UA) July 4, 2024
This is a photo of one of the fires that occurred outside the city of Novy Bug, Bashtan district, Mykolaiv region. The dead tree burned, and the pheasant chicks burned with it…
Firefighters managed to save this little boy. They took him to a safe place.
We hope he’ll be fine 🙏
Ворог обстріляв Харківщину. У с. Лосівка загинула людина. Пошкоджено цивільну інфраструктуру – виникли пожежі, горіли трава й очерет на площі 1,5 га.
У сел.Білий Колодязь горіла складська будівля. Постраждалих не було.
Рятувальники працювали під постійними обстрілами. pic.twitter.com/IZgyrkNsxo— DSNS.GOV.UA (@SESU_UA) July 5, 2024
The enemy shelled Kharkiv Oblast. In the village A person died in Losivka. Civil infrastructure was damaged – fires broke out, burning grass and reeds on an area of 1.5 hectares.
A warehouse building burned down in the village of Bily Kolodyaz. There were no casualties.
The rescuers worked under constant fire.
Ворожі обстріли на Херсонщині спричинили 6 пожеж в екосистемах. Площа гасіння склала 11,5 га🔥
Також від влучань ворожих боєприпасів у населених пунктах області горіло 2 житлові будинки, 4 господарчі споруди та гаражні приміщення. Пожежі ліквідовано. pic.twitter.com/3jwnWyARxw— DSNS.GOV.UA (@SESU_UA) July 5, 2024
Enemy shelling in the Kherson region caused 6 fires in ecosystems. The extinguishing area was 11.5 ha 🔥
Also, 2 residential buildings, 4 outbuildings and garages burned down in populated areas of the region from the hits of enemy ammunition. The fire has been extinguished.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
I Am Grateful to Our Partners for Fulfilling Air Defense Agreements — Address by the President of Ukraine
5 July 2024 – 18:33
Dear Ukrainians!
First of all, I want to thank our partners for fulfilling air defense agreements. We aimed at doubling the strength of our air defense shield, and today the process has begun. I thank Germany for the Patriot that is already in Ukraine. This is powerful news. And there is even more powerful news: I thank the United States for another step towards strengthening our air defense, our Patriots. We keep working, and new decisions will certainly follow. The Ukrainians have already proven that there are no Russian missiles that we cannot shoot down. And we are doing our utmost to make the Russian terror lose.
Today, I also held a meeting on our missile program. I am grateful to everyone who is contributing to this and bringing closer our absolutely just ability to respond to Russia’s aggression in a truly tangible way. This is a matter of global stability and security — so that everyone in the Kremlin knows that they will not go unpunished.
The second thing for this day. New judges have been sworn in. Two hundred and forty-eight people. All of them are already starting their work.
The third thing. Today, I took part in the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of Ukraine. It was attended by Government officials and representatives of various central authorities. And, in the near future, they should present to the public all the detailed proposals on how to support people, our communities, and Ukrainian businesses in the face of severe electricity shortages. We have already prepared legislative amendments that will be voted on. We have decisions of the Government. We have new loan programs — completely interest-free loans for people and low-cost loyal loans for businesses. All of this should start working as soon as possible.
Of course, we continue to focus on negotiations with our European partners to increase the volume of electricity imports. We are also working on the reconstruction of energy facilities.
Responsibility for all parts of the comprehensive energy package will be personalized for all Government officials. And the additional needs of communities must be taken into account.
I thank everyone who is working one hundred percent for our country and our people! I thank everyone who is fighting for Ukraine as for themselves!
Glory to Ukraine!
Germany:
The third Patriot air defense system from 🇩🇪 arrived in 🇺🇦.
We are grateful to our German partners for their unwavering support!
Patriot systems help save innocent lives and critical infrastructure from russian terror. pic.twitter.com/C8O3ElxRr9— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 5, 2024
Latvia:
Latvia will deliver the next package of drones to Ukraine as part of the drone coalition. The package includes more than 2,500 combat drones worth EUR 4 million.
We are grateful to our Latvian friends for their unwavering support and their leadership in the Drone coalition.… pic.twitter.com/LkBglWJJwf
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 5, 2024
Latvia will deliver the next package of drones to Ukraine as part of the drone coalition. The package includes more than 2,500 combat drones worth EUR 4 million.
We are grateful to our Latvian friends for their unwavering support and their leadership in the Drone coalition.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇻
@AndrisSpruds @AizsardzibasMin
EU officials are distancing themselves from Orban’s visit to Moscow today.
.@PM_ViktorOrban visit to Moscow falls exclusively in the bilateral relations between Hungary & Russia. #EUCO positions on Russian war against Ukraine exclude official contacts between the EU & President Putin.
PM Orban is thus not representing the EU.https://t.co/0xPP1ZhNp8
— Josep Borrell Fontelles (@JosepBorrellF) July 5, 2024
Viktor #Orbán is visiting Putin as Hungarian Prime Minister. In foreign policy, the European Council is represented by Charles Michel.
The EU’s position is very clear: we condemn the Russian war of aggression. Ukraine can rely on our support.— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) July 5, 2024
In Moscow, Viktor Orbán in no way represents the EU or the EU’s positions. He is exploiting the EU presidency position to sow confusion.
The EU is united, clearly behind Ukraine and against Russian aggression.
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) July 5, 2024
We have some additional responses to that letter that Politico published yesterday from international relations professors and think tank denizens.
Those very same “national security experts” have been consistently and persistently wrong and clueless about every little thing they ever said about Ukraine, Russia and the Russian war in Ukraine — again and again and again — and who have been openly propagating unconditional…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 5, 2024
Those very same “national security experts” have been consistently and persistently wrong and clueless about every little thing they ever said about Ukraine, Russia and the Russian war in Ukraine — again and again and again — and who have been openly propagating unconditional defeatism to the Kremlin and 1938-style appeasement in the West
now publish an “open letter” against admitting Ukraine into NATO to stop Russia’s decade-long war of aggression to erase it as a nation.Moreover, this time around, their desperate mental gymnastics reaches the point of ironically stating that giving Ukraine a clear perspective of becoming a member of history’s most powerful defensive alliance (thanks to which not a single bomb is now falling on the Baltic states and Poland and Finland) is somehow a “disservice” to Ukrainians fighting and dying to save their country from Russian fascism — because that would get the Kremlin so upset and angry that it would be motivated to go on killing and destroying Ukraine!
See?
It’s not that Russia is already waging a full-scale, total war on Ukraine for two and a half years, so the entire cities wiped off the earth’s face, and is openly seeking complete deconstruction of the Ukrainian nationhood and identity, right?
And you know what
@politico
does?“Wow, that’s yet another brilliant piece of analysis that will age very well, just like everything you guys said about Ukraine before, let’s give this a platform ASAP just days before a key NATO summit in D.C.”
Some people are just unable to learn and make conclusions from things happening in front of their own eyes.
Where? When? Who besides the tweeter @stephenwertheim and one more?
This is trash journalism @politico. Certainly you should know better than to write “dozens of foreign policy experts…” when all you have are two names.
We should know who and their background, affiliations,… https://t.co/fcerWF6bW2
— toomas ilves, ex-verif (@IlvesToomas) July 4, 2024
Where? When? Who besides the tweeter @stephenwertheim and one more?
This is trash journalism @politico. Certainly you should know better than to write “dozens of foreign policy experts…” when all you have are two names.
We should know who and their background, affiliations, etc., to be able to evaluate whether the title “experts” is warranted or if they’re just the usual appeasers.
Of course it turned out to be the usual crew, the people who think we Ostuntermenschen out here next to Russia don’t deserve agency or indeed the right to live —- all for the good of Russian-US relations and World Peace.
Life is good when from your perch in US academia you can…
— toomas ilves, ex-verif (@IlvesToomas) July 5, 2024
Of course it turned out to be the usual crew, the people who think we Ostuntermenschen out here next to Russia don’t deserve agency or indeed the right to live —- all for the good of Russian-US relations and World Peace.
Life is good when from your perch in US academia you can view a hundred million people as disposable, rape-able pawns.
And that qualifies you as a “foreign policy expert” @stephenwertheim
Kharkiv:
People are adjusting to the power schedule and gearing up for winter, figuring out how to survive the cold season, with generators becoming a luxury. Some regions are already changing study schedules to prepare for the extremely difficult electricity situation. pic.twitter.com/UsMnUGQ5zC
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 5, 2024
Nova Khakovka, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
About todays strike on the Russian command and control base in the vicinity of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region:
«Today, 05 July 2024, at about 04:00 on the morning, the control point of the 66th control brigade (military unit 41600, Stavropol), located in the vicinity of the New… pic.twitter.com/vptKWsNBZJ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 5, 2024
About todays strike on the Russian command and control base in the vicinity of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region:
«Today, 05 July 2024, at about 04:00 on the morning, the control point of the 66th control brigade (military unit 41600, Stavropol), located in the vicinity of the New Kakhovka, Kherson region, was targeted.
The strike was carried out using 6 UAVs of an unknown type.
As a result of the strike, a mobile tropospheric radio station (probably R-412) and a power supply station (probably E-351br) were destroyed. Among personnel: 2 were injured.»
Somewhere near Kupyansk and Svatovo:
A Ukrainian armored personnel carrier made in the Netherlands of the Steel Border brigade breaks through to Ukrainian positions through an open and mined location, under hellish missile and artillery fire, to rotate Warriors and evacuate the wounded.
This was reportedly filmed… pic.twitter.com/xMB2x0yuHO
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 5, 2024
A Ukrainian armored personnel carrier made in the Netherlands of the Steel Border brigade breaks through to Ukrainian positions through an open and mined location, under hellish missile and artillery fire, to rotate Warriors and evacuate the wounded.
This was reportedly filmed in the area of Kupiansk and Svatovo. Russians fired two complete packages of Grad MLRS and 15 shells from cannon artillery at the carrier.
Yekaterinburg:
ATESH movement reported it has stopped the operation of trains with North Korean ammunition near Russian Yekaterinburg.
ATESH agents conducted a successful operation on the Trans-Siberian railroad near Yekaterinburg. As a result, the railroad track carrying North Korean… pic.twitter.com/xUBR4qilpe
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 5, 2024
ATESH movement reported it has stopped the operation of trains with North Korean ammunition near Russian Yekaterinburg.
ATESH agents conducted a successful operation on the Trans-Siberian railroad near Yekaterinburg. As a result, the railroad track carrying North Korean munitions was blown up.
“And we would like to remind you once again that the railroad will explode even more often as long as ammunition is transported along it.” – ATESH wrote.
ATESH is a Ukrainian partisan underground movement centered in Crimea. The word itself is not an acronym, it is Crimean Tartar for fire. The BBC has details:
A man, who we’re calling Agent One, takes photos as he crouches down in some bushes.
He tells us he’s part of a group called Atesh – a word that means fire in Crimean Tatar.
And via a messaging app, he describes his secret life to the BBC: spying on Russian forces in occupied Crimea.
“For probably two weeks, I planned in my head how and what I would do,” he says. “Planned the route, the main backup, what I should say in case I was noticed.”
Agent One is thorough. He takes multiple shots from multiple angles.
But it’s dangerous – potentially deadly – work. On one occasion, moments after investigating a site, he noticed a group of Russian servicemen nearby.
“[That] was a terrible moment,” he says. “I managed to lean down [by a] car and pretended that I had a problem with the wheel.”
“Miraculously, they just didn’t talk to me.”Atesh says it collects information on Russian military movements – mostly in Crimea but also in other occupied areas and even inside Russia itself.
Operatives say their information has aided high-profile Ukrainian strikes on Crimea, such as hits on a Russian landing ship and submarine – the Minsk and Rostov-on-Don – and an attack on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in September 2023.
Most recently, Atesh said it had carried out reconnaissance work this week after a Ukrainian strike on a possible radar station in Yevpatoria.
Military bloggers in Russia dismiss the network as an online invention of Ukrainian intelligence, designed to overstate levels of resistance.
Yet Russian media also report that Atesh is a terrorist organisation, banned by the Kremlin.
More at the link.
Moscow:
Insane apocalyptic weather strikes Moscow as the Hungarian leader Victor Orban meets with Putin in the Kremlin for so-called peace talks. pic.twitter.com/LzyUsgjbMg
— Jason Corcoran (@jason_corcoran) July 5, 2024
That’s enough for today.
Your daily Patron!
First some related material.
Glory to our Defenders!
📹 – luhanskdpsu / TikTok pic.twitter.com/1AdeXyrTzp
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 5, 2024
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Робоче❤️🔥 #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Working ❤️🔥 #песпатрон
Open thread!
YY_Sima Qian
Adam, more confirmation your read yesterday was accurate: Bibi is not interested in a permanent ceasefire, but he wants to maneuver events such that he is neither constrained nor blamed for continuing the war in Gaza, which he clears wants to do as one mean of staying in power & out of jail.
But, it seems Hamas is maneuvering to avoid getting blamed for being an obstacle to a ceasefire, & to an extent has called Bibi’s bluff.
Makes no sense from Hamas’ perspective to give up its leverage in the form of the hostages w/o a strong guarantee of a permanent ceasefire after the temporary one.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Yutsano
I could already read at least Russian Cyrillic but I wish I knew Ukrainian letters better. It seems more interesting and subtle than Russian. I do admit every time I see Пес Патрон I smile a bit. I also didn’t know his owner trained him to be a sapper.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/IAPonomarenko/status/1809262012477714810#m
Seeker
Thanks Adam.
Yutsano
@Jay: I really don’t get WTF Orbán is trying to do here. He can’t change EU foreign policy. It’s clear the other EU heads of state* aren’t supporting him. I don’t see any sort of domestic benefit. Is he being an asshole just because? I don’t get it.
* I’m not counting the heads of state from Slovakia or Austria since as far as I know neither have made a peep here.
YY_Sima Qian
Here is an example of both European countries hedging their bets on a possible US under Trump 2.0, as well as engaging in wishful thinking on what it takes to defeat Putin’s invasion of Ukraine:
Putin is not Xi’s proxy or puppet, he is not going to take orders from the latter on matter that he perceives to be central of his interest & to the credibility of his regime. Much like how the Kim Dynasty in NK has been completely reliant upon PRC economic support since the end of the Cold War, but nevertheless takes pleasure at thumbing their noses at Beijing to demonstrate its independence.
There is also a tendency among Western policymakers in wishing for the one weird trick to eliminate their geopolitical challenge, as opposed to coming to terms on the level of support Ukraine needs & the level of costs to be shouldered by its Western supporters to actually defeat the Russian invasion. Xi (or Modi, Lula or anyone else) cannot deliver Putin to the negotiation table if the latter does not want to be there, & certainly cannot dictate terms to Putin. At best Xi can pressure Putin to accept terms a bit more favorable to Ukraine & help guarantee the peace deal to make it sustainable, but only after Putin has concluded that the invasion/occupation is unsustainable & indeed has become a threat to his hold on power.
YY_Sima Qian
I would not say Moscow & Beijing are “frenemies” in Central Asia, but there is a momentum shift in the geopolitics of the region as a downstream, effect of Putin’s disastrous re-invasion of Ukraine.
The CARs will try to engage other great (the US, the EU) & middle powers (Türkiye, the Gulf States, South Korea, Japan, India) to keep their options open & maintain space for maneuver, but the PRC has decisive advantages in mass & proximity.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
@Yutsano:
Orban relies on EU Welfare to keep Hungary afloat, while relying on ruZZian methods of press suppression, opposition suppression, co-opting education, cronyism, etc to stay in power.
For many of the Eastern EU Countries in the 90’s and 00’s, they saw their economic “future” as being a bridge between ruZZia and Europe.
Orban cluelessly is trying to get a jump on “normalization” economics in the future, when he is a moron. ruZZia, Putin or no Putin, won’t be pumping oil and naturals gas through Hungary in the future, it will be tanks and Z meatcubes.
:
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Good to know Patron is still a working dog. With all his energy he needs it.
I continue to donate what money I can spare to those Ukrainian charities that are dedicated to helping animals. War was created by us humans. Since we insist on dragging innocent animals into it, the least we can do is look after them. 😡 The rest of my donations go to World Central Kitchen who are helping in Gaza as well as Ukraine. Did you know their cookbook recently won a James Beard award? Wish I could afford it. Maybe if it comes out in paperback.
Thank you as always, Adam. For your updates on both the Middle East as well as Ukraine. I’m glad we both despise Netanyahu.
Jay
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13889580/
Selena and Chef Jose Andre doing zoom cooking during covid.
He is not just a great humanitarian, but also a nut and a joy. I laughed my ass off.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Jay: Thanks! I will try to find it.
YY_Sima Qian
Not sure how much effect this will have, but there are worse outcomes:
Maybe Biden in a 2nd term can try to resuscitate the JPCOA.