Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

The press swings at every pitch, we don’t have to.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

President Musk and Trump are both poorly raised, coddled 8 year old boys.

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

“woke” is the new caravan.

T R E 4 5 O N

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 865: All of Ukraine is Under Air Raid Alert & Russian Missiles Are Inbound!

War for Ukraine Day 865: All of Ukraine is Under Air Raid Alert & Russian Missiles Are Inbound!

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Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is doing fine. Round 3 of chemo starts tomorrow. Rounds 3 and 4 are a treatment every other week rather than every week with two weeks off in between. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

As I start tonight’s update – 8:01 PM EDT – all of Ukraine is under air raid alert and Russian attack aircraft are in the air in western Russia to launch cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets. It is important to remember that the last time this happened, Russian cruise missiles entered Polish air space and Poland scrambled their own fighters.

Air raid alert map of Ukraine from 8:02 PM EDT on 7 July 2024. All of Ukraine is under air raid alert. The map indicates that Russian air force planes are airborne over western Russia launching attacks against Ukraine.

We will have to wait until later today in Ukraine, tomorrow in the US to know how bad the damage is.

As of 8:55 PM EDT, the air raid alerts are coming down and the cruise missile threat seems to be over for now.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Will Continue to Strengthen the Ukrainian Fleet Together with the United Kingdom and the Netherlands – There Are Promising New Details of Our Cooperation – Address by the President

7 July 2024 – 20:14

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I am in Odesa – on Ukrainian Navy Day. This is a day of gratitude to all naval warriors and negotiations to ensure that the Defense Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Navy, and our entire country gain even more capabilities. Today, here in Odesa, we were joined by the new Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, as well as the new Secretary of State for Defense of the United Kingdom. I informed them about the situation on the battlefield, and there was a report from Navy Commander Neizhpapa. We will continue to strengthen the Ukrainian fleet together with the United Kingdom and the Netherlands – there are promising new details of our cooperation. We also discussed strengthening air defense, which is our absolute priority, and I am grateful for the willingness to take the next steps – particularly regarding the F-16s.

Of course, we were honored to be here today. I had the honor of personally awarding our Navy servicemen, those who have particularly distinguished themselves. Among them are the Hero of Ukraine, Junior Sergeant Vladyslav Andrushchenko, as well as those who have been awarded the Crosses of Military Merit, the Orders of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, and the Orders “For Courage.” I awarded the Order of Princess Olga to Sergeant Iryna Bovshchyk, a combat medic of the 36th separate marine brigade. I am proud of each and every one who truly changes everything for our country – defending the state, opening new opportunities for Ukraine, fighting for Ukraine, working, and securing international support for our country. Each of our joint achievements – including the success in the Black Sea and the expulsion of the Russian fleet – is the result of many of our people who remained loyal to both the state and themselves. Glory to all of you! Today, I also paid a visit to our warriors who are undergoing treatment and rehabilitation after being wounded. I wished them a speedy recovery and thanked the doctors and nurses.

I also held a meeting regarding the situation in Odesa and the region. We discussed security, the operation of our transport arteries, energy and social issues.

And one more thing. I want to extend a special gratitude to our 110th separate mechanized brigade for shooting down another Russian combat aircraft in the Donetsk region – the twelfth in the past few months. Your accuracy is truly exemplary! Well done!

Glory to Ukraine!

The new British Defense Secretary was in Odesa today with President Zelenskyy.

Odesa. Together with the UK Secretary of State for Defence, we visited the hospital where sailors wounded in battles with Russian occupiers are being treated and spoke with these brave warriors.

I honored the defenders with state awards. I am grateful for their fight, service, and defense of Ukraine.

I also extend my gratitude to the medical staff who treat our warriors and bring them back to life.

France:

Macron’s gambit sort of paid off. Now he just has to figure out if he can make an agreement with the New Popular Front to make governing easier despite the differences between them and his centrist coalition.

France24 published an excellent article today that interviewed surviving members of the French partisan underground during World War II in regard to the current moment in France.

Eleven days ago, Franco-Austrian Mélanie Berger-Volle was filled with immense joy when she was selected by the Loire département, or district, in central France to carry the Olympic flame due to her participation in the Resistance during the Second World War.

The 102-year-old carried the flame in a retirement home in the city of Saint-Étienne, with a broad smile on her face. “I was very happy to show that an elderly person could carry the flame. It made me so happy”, she said.

But now, three days after the far-right National Rally party (RN) came out on top in the first round of legislative elections, the former résistante spoke with a heavy heart.

“I’m appalled that France, which has achieved so much, is turning to the far right,” she said, adding that “I’ve no choice but to speak my mind”.

‘I’ll vote for anyone, but not for them’

Born into a Jewish family in Vienna in 1921, Berger-Volle lived through one of the darkest periods in recent history.

In 1938, the then 17-year-old was forced to leave her country following the annexation of Austria by the German Reich.

“People forget that Hitler came to power legally”, Berger-Volle said.

After a brief stay in Belgium, Berger-Volle came to France where she joined the Resistance when Nazi Germany occupied the country.

Arrested in 1942 for distributing anti-Hitler leaflets to German soldiers, Berger-Volle was sent to the Saint-Michel prison in Toulouse, then to Marseille’s Baumettes Prison from where she managed to escape with help from comrades.

The young activist then continued working with the Resistance until France was liberated in 1945.

More than 80 years on, she is stunned by the rise of the far right in the country for which she fought against the Nazis.

“I’ll vote for anyone, but not for them,” Berger-Volle said, referring to the RN. “They are very intelligent. They say they’ve become like everyone else, but if you scratch the surface a bit, nothing has changed.”

In Toulon, when there was a far-right mayor, “the first thing he did was to attack [the city’s] culture, even though we can’t live without it,” Berger-Volle said.

She added that she would cast her ballot on Sunday despite her old age.

“Of course, I’ve always voted. I fought for it during the war”.

‘I don’t want us to be governed by former SS men’

On France’s west coast, Roger Lebranchu also had the honour of taking part in the Olympic torch relay on May 31, when it passed through Mont-Saint-Michel.

“I carried this symbol, which represents peace in the world and dignity between peoples. I never thought I’d do it one day”, he points out.

The former rowing champion, selected for the London Olympics in 1948, was chosen for his sporting achievements and his past as a member of the Resistance.

“I was arrested in 1943 because I wanted to reach North Africa via Spain”, Lebranchu said.

Aged merely 22, he was deported to the Buchenwald concentration camp and the nearby Schönebeck camp where he spent nearly two years. He escaped in April 1945 just before the Americans arrived.

After the liberation of France, Lebranchu took up rowing again and won the French championship, twice.

Now at 101 years of age, Lebranchu is worried about the future of his country.

“I was deported for acts of resistance, I don’t want us to be governed by former SS men”, he said, referring to founding members of the FN. Among them were Léon Gaultier and Pierre Bousquet, two Frenchmen who had joined the ranks of the Waffen-SS.

“When you’ve been through the hands of the SS like I have, you can expect anything,” the former Resistance fighter said, adding that he hopes that parties from “the centre will come together and stand shoulder by shoulder” against the far right.

‘Danger on our doorstep’

Meanwhile former Resistance fighter Jean Lafaurie takes a broader approach. For him, it is necessary for parties across all political divides to band together to prevent the National rally from taking power.

“We have to block this party, which is harmful to France,” he said. “When I hear people from the right or government representatives say that we can’t vote for the New Popular Front (a left-wing alliance)” because they object to certain candidates, “I say that blocking means blocking. We can discuss the details later”.

“We’re back to the same things that we’ve been through at the end of the 1930s. I think we’re in the same system,” said Lafaurie, who was shaken upon learning the election results from the first round of voting last Sunday.

“The danger is on our doorstep”, he said.

Lafaurie had already faced a very similar danger over eight decades ago.

At 20, he joined the communist resistance fighters, or FTPF (Francs-tireurs et partisans), in his home region of the Lot in southwest France.

In July 1943, he was arrested and sentenced to ten years hard labour.

Interned in the Eysses prison in Lot-et-Garonne, Lafaurie took part in a mutiny that ended in the execution of 12 prisoners and the deportation of more than 1,000 others to the Dachau concentration camp near Munich.

There, Lafaurie survived for almost a year as prisoner number 73 618 before he was liberated in April 1945, weighing just 36 kilos.

“The concentration camps were a bit like what the Nazis intended to do in the rest of the world. A world of slaves with the Nazis as the sole representatives of authority”, Lafaurie said.

Deeply marked by the experience, which is now “ingrained” in him, Lafaurie said he is dismayed to see that some people in France are suggesting trying the far right.

“We’ve been there!” Lafaurie said.

“They may have changed the way they talk to better deceive people, but the basis of the movement is still the same. Marine Le Pen has shown her ties with Putin. France is really in danger, but so is the whole of Europe at the moment”, he said.

For years, Lafaurie travelled the country to speak in schools, where he believes the history of the Second World War has not necessarily been properly passed on.

After 1945, “two generations wanted to forget the war and didn’t talk about it. We must try and reawaken this memory, but it’s not easy. We’re trying to sow small seeds with the idea that they’ll grow one day”.

‘We’re going to get through this’

96-year-old Daniel Huillier from Villard-de-Lans in the Isère department also recounts his story tirelessly to young people.

One of the last surviving resistance fighters from the Vercors Maquis, Huillier joined the Resistance at the age of 15, following in the footsteps of his father and several members of his family.

“During the war, I lost two uncles, cousins and friends aged 16 or 17”, Huillier said.

Last week, Huillier recalled fraternal values advocated by his former comrades in arms in an article published ahead of the first round of elections.

“In the Resistance, there were of course French people, but there were also many foreigners. There were 36 nationalities in our ranks”, he wrote.

Huillier, who took part a few weeks earlier in several ceremonies honouring the maquis of the Vercors, is saddened by the current situation.

“What’s happening is dramatic. We’re in trouble”, he said, adding that many French people “cast their ballots mindlessly because our leaders don’t know where they’re going”.

While Huillier believed he has “no instructions to give to people”, he regretted that those who vote for the far right “don’t think about the consequences”.

Nevertheless, Huillier, who narrowly escaped the German repression in the Vercors, remained optimistic.

“We mustn’t despair. We’re going to get through this. Unfortunately, things like this must happen for people to start thinking,” Huillier said.

These men and women, and their other surviving peers, are those who we should be listening to right now. I don’t think this applies to anyone here, but my advice to anyone who tells me they’re not going to vote is if that’s the case then you need to read everything you can about the French partisan underground in WW II, the Bielskys, and Bernard Fall’s Theories of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency. Fall was a member of the French partisan underground.

And we all need to be taking this to heart:

Estonian Army Reserve Soldier Artur Rehi has posted an interesting assessment of Russian capabilities written by Finnish doctoral candidate Joni Askola.

1/8 One more miserable failure: the window of opportunity for russia to achieve anything on the front in 2024 is steadily narrowing. Analysis by @joni_askolaImage
2/8 russia had its prime opportunity in a long time, from October 2023 to the autumn of 2024, to make gains on the front, as Ukraine faced shortages in manpower, shells, and fortifications.Image
3/8 Despite its best efforts, russia miserably failed to achieve anything significant while Ukraine was at its weakest. Its only accomplishment was the capture of Avdiivka, at the expense of tens of thousands of casualties.Image
4/8 russia’s diversionary offensive north of Kharkiv did not achieve its objectives, but it compelled Ukraine’s allies to permit Ukraine to launch strikes into russian territory.Image
5/8 As russia squandered its opportunity, Ukraine has been mobilizing, fortifying, boosting production, targeting russian energy infrastructure, and ultimately receiving shells and equipment from its allies.Image
6/8 russia has yet to capture the small but important town of Chasiv Yar, and its time for launching a decisive offensive is running out. By the year’s end, Ukraine will have become too formidable for russia to achieve significant successes on the front.Image
7/8 For Ukraine to maintain its advantage in this war, the best approach is to refrain from large-scale offensives and concentrate primarily on defense. Ukraine’s success will not come from reclaiming territory, but from conveying to the russians that the war is unwinnable.Image
8/8 It may take years for the average russian to recognize in their imperialistic, revanchist, and materialistic mindset that the war is unwinnable and futile, but that realization will eventually occur. For that day to arrive sooner, Ukraine needs to defend itself.Image

The Economist recently did an accounting of Russian losses in Ukraine. It’s not good.

And some additional analysis:

The numbers documented in the latest article of the Economist reporting on the Russian losses in Ukraine in the last two years are staggering. They have exceeded all losses the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation experienced from 1945 to 2022, combined. Somewhere between 462,000 and 728,000 of Russian soldiers have been permanently eliminated, basically confirming the numbers Ukrainian forces have been reporting all along.

You can also see from that chart that the numbers of destroyed Russian militants has increased, significantly, over the past months, especially in connection with the failed Kharkiv incursion. It confirms what I was suspecting for a while. Russia is trying to brute-force a decision on the battlefield, respectively, is trying to project that it is making progress on the ground and lie to the public that Russia is winning the war. Though a few gains have been made on the ground, they all have been tiny. In some cases such as the Kharkiv incursion, they have been even partially reversed.

Strategically seen the Russian offensives have been all but a string of failures. The attrition rate of Russian human material and hardware is not sustainable on the long run. The situation of the Russian armor and the reserves have recently also been part of the debate. Depending on the analysts, Russian reserves of armor will last between 18 and 36 months, but it will end in a foreseeable future.

The Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil facilities and other high value targets in Russia might expedite Russia’s downfall. It is a thorn in Russia’s side, which many still don’t take notice of enough.

Summarizing the paragraphs above, it appears that the Kremlin considers this year to be the make-or-break period. The Russian reserves are not enough to sustain a prolonged war, beyond the next 2 or 3 years. It is coming to on end, one way or another, so more than ever Russian cannon fodder has to be thrown into the fire. Putin needs to convince or more specifically bluff that Russia is winning, now more than ever, but numbers are not lying and Russia is failing by virtually every metric.

This is why Russians are investing so much to install their puppets in Western leadership positions and hope that they stop the war for them. This concerted effort by Russia will accelerate in the coming months. If Russians fail in doing so or their puppets do not turn out being this good, especially after realizing that long-term precautions have been taken to mitigate those risks, it will have a dramatic impact on the Russian war effort.

Europe and especially Germany are holding the keys for Russia’s end. It is up to their determination to steer into the right direction, even without the US. The economic capacities are available even today.

No man’s land:

The Ukrainians brought down another Su-25 over Donetsk Oblast:

Serebryansky forest, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

The Avdiivka front:

Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Moscow:

Oy vey.

Here’s the full video:

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Continued large explosions in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast, where a field ammunition depot placed over 9 thousand square meters has been attacked by a drone earlier today.

The Russians stored surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, shells for tanks and artillery, and boxes of ammunition for firearms at the facility.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Baby battle birds!

Swallows have made a nest in the Ukrainian Defenders’ dugout.

“We saw that there were four eggs. When I woke up in the morning, there was an eggshell next to me. We realized that the first baby had hatched. That’s how our four babies appeared,” a Ukrainian Warrior said.

📹: Radio Svoboda

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Чекаємо з нетерпінням ❤️🤞🏻 @Ukrzaliznytsia

♬ оригинальный звук – perchikov_v

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Looking forward to it ❤️🤞🏻 @Ukrzaliznytsia

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

22Comments

  1. 1.

    YY_Sima Qian

    France is getting a hung Parliament. Sensible strategic voting by French voters rendered RN close 3rd after Ensemblé. Glad to see a clear majority of French citizens still have the good sense to prioritizing anti-Fascism, but not sure how long this will hold, give how Macron & his centrists have chosen to relentlessly demonize the Left during the campaign. I suspect the runoff results greatly inflate the actual level of support for Ensemblé. Now Macron will have to swallow his pride and perhaps choose someone from the Left to head the government.

    There are irreconcilable differences between the Left & the Center on a host of domestic & foreign policies, so it is entirely possible that the can’t form a government. I am heartened by the strength of the Left in France, though, much better than the alternative Far Right, since the Center won’t hold for long.

  2. 2.

    YY_Sima Qian

    WRT Joni Askola’s analysis:

    7/8 For Ukraine to maintain its advantage in this war, the best approach is to refrain from large-scale offensives and concentrate primarily on defense. Ukraine’s success will not come from reclaiming territory, but from conveying to the russians that the war is unwinnable.

    Makes sense for Ukraine for the rest of 2024, & probably all of 2025. However, if Ukraine does not go n the offensive at some point to reclaim the occupied territories, it will simply allow Putin to consolidate his hold on the occupied territories, & make it a fait accompli, much as he had done w/ Donbass & Crimea between 2014 & 2022. I don’t think that is an acceptable or just outcome for Ukraine, & it simply invites Putin or another Russian revanchist to try again later to bite off another chunk.

  4. 4.

    Jay

    I think that when trolls show up in these threads, like they have in some others, US Election season will have officially started.

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Sure, but Askola made it seem like Ukraine can win this war by bleeding the Russians until eventually they get exhausted & give up, a la Afghanistan or the US in Vietnam. However, Afghanistan did not have the salience for Russian revanchists that Ukraine does. Of course, Ukraine can & is doing a lot of damage to Russia than Afghanistan could to the USSR or Vietnam to the US.

    Putin can offer to freeze the conflict at end of 2024 or some time in 2025, & I suspect there will be quite a lot of pressure from both w/in the West & among the ROW to take up that offer. In fact, Putin could have done any of this in the past 9 mo. & it is his delusions that prevent him to taking this rational (in a Realist sense) course of action.

  10. 10.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Salience is not the issue. Exhaustion and hopelessness is.. That is the toxin that the Afghanistan War introduced to Soviet society, which wrecked Marxist-Leninist control, in the end.

    Ukrainian society knows what it wants, and will bear appalling costs to achieve its goals. Russian “society” bases its war aims on unsatisfying, empty-calory “patriotic” fictions, for which it is sacrificing human and economic losses unparalleled since The 1941-1945 Great Patriotic War (which was, in fact, a genuine patriotic project).

    Regarding Putinist resolve to see things through as a matter of historical Russian doggedness and willingness to accept horrifying casualties is a mistake, in my view. Russia is being hollowed out and weakened by degrees as the war progresses with no resolution satisfactory to the Kremlin, and all in the name of a national destiny that most Russians regard with the sardonic, disillusioned affection of minor-league sports fans for their sad-sack third-rate team.

    At some point, there will be blowback. This war is still far more likely to end in Russia than in Ukraine,

  11. 11.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Putin can offer to freeze the conflict long before hopelessness & exhaustion actually sets in. If Russia indefinitely pauses any offensives consolidate its current gains, then what for Ukraine? I don’t see how Ukraine can avoid going on major offensives at some point.

    Unless we are talking about Ukraine staying on the defense along the Lines of Actual Control, & pivot to ramping up insurgency in the occupied territories & ramping up the drone/missile strikes into occupied territories & Russia proper. However, Putin is quite capable of deporting all Ukrainians who do not want to become Russians out of the occupied territories & to Siberia, & supplant them w/ Russian settlers.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    He has been trying in Mariupol. No luck.

    Crimea worked out, sort of, because Crimea was long a ruZZian vacation spot,

    But they are leaving, something something about bombs and missile landing,….

    While ruZZia might find some farmers to take over Ukrainian fields, there is the little issue of demining, which Ukraine with Western and others Aid, does, ruZZia, not so much.

  14. 14.

    Philbert

    Regarding RU casualties. As best I can tell, few of Moscow/St Pete is going to  war, so they are not affected so much as far as casualties go. High paying jobs with draft deferments are opening in the military industries.This reduces any effective popular discontent, which of course would need to be massive given the security apparatus.  theory: ..

    1)Russia can fight for a longer time than our math calculations

    2) Putin is using the war to ethnically cleanse non ethnic Russians.

    Thoughts?

  15. 15.

    Mike in DC

    I think the appropriate strategy may be to go on the defensive through next year to attrit more men and equipment,  while building up the manpower, training and equipment needed to score actual breakthrough on offense.  It’s pointless to lose tens of thousands to gain a 100 Sq km of territory.  They have to take major objectives like the rest of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

  17. 17.

    Jay

    @Philbert:

    1)Russia can fight for a longer time than our math calculations

    Ukraine has reported that the latest T-90 they have captured or destroyed so far, was made in 2022, is a downgraded model made for delivery to India. All of the things that made the T-90 a “breakthrough” tanks, were off the shelf electronics and optics from the West. ruZZian production is apparently 1 every 2 months.

    Most of the current “turtle” tanks are 1950’s T-54’s, T-55’s and early 1960’s T-62’s.

    On average, for every 10 aircraft Ukraine has downed, ruZZia makes 2 replacements, and for some aircraft, like the ruZZian AWACs, ruzzia can make 0.
    ruZZia can make 1 of the S-200,S-300,S-400, or S-500 systems a month, and on average they are losing 6 a month in Ukraine.

    They are buying defective ammo from the NORKs and “moped” drones from Iran.

    And this is the ruZZian economy on a 12hr a day, 2 shift, 6 days a week “war footing”.

    2) Putin is using the war to ethnically cleanse non ethnic Russians.

    Median monthly salaries in ruZZia are $630 a month. That’s median, so ogliarch’s millions + serfs pennies. In some oblasts, median monthly income is $112, if you have full time work. Many don’t.

    If you have seen video’s of ruZZian MIR, outside of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, much of ruZZia is a shit hole, no gas, no running water, no toilets, no sewage system, no real roads, no garbage pick up, dams that fail, bridges that fall, etc.

    Signing a contract get’s you $1,115 dollars a month, (if it’s paid, hint, it’s not) and an up to $15,000 bonus for signing up, (again, if it’s paid). If you die, your Mom get’s a new Lada, (nope) but will get a bag of carrots or a sack of potatoes from the local Mayor, (sometimes).

    You can see the attraction.

    Then of course, there is the get out of jail free card and pardon, if you get the pardon.

    You can see the attraction.

  18. 18.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Philbert:

     

    1)Russia can fight for a longer time than our math calculations

    2) Putin is using the war to ethnically cleanse non ethnic Russians.

    Thoughts?

    Yesterday a YouTube video came out

    link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSTcoqhUnIE
    title: “How Ukraine Is Continuing to Withstand Putin’s Aggression | @jakebroe”

    The main thing I got from this vid is that Ukraine is stable enough that the war will not be won or lost taking a town or farm field. The real war map is Russia’s treasury. The war ends when Russia runs out of money to fight.

    Specifically here: https://youtu.be/rSTcoqhUnIE?t=426

  19. 19.

    wjca

    Russia has a 1.5 fertility rate.   How long can a country like that afford to kill of huge numbers of young men?  Putin may manage to keep the meatgrinder going for a while yet.  But the demographics do not bode well for Russia in the medium term.

    EDT  I realize that, so far, he is mostly killing off non-Russians.  But the guys in Moscow and St. Petersburg won’t be exempt much longer.

  20. 20.

    Jay

    @wjca:

    Putin is already recruiting from Africa, India, Nepal, etc, along with grabbing “foreign workers” from across the globe and the ‘stan’s, along with foreign students, and “giving them a choice”, 15 years in a gulag or 1 year as a “Z” stormtrooper, plus $1,115 a month in wages, (nope) and ruZZian citizenship, (nope).

    Lot’s of meat out there when it’s sourced globally.

    In Africa, the “Africa Korps”, (Wagner 2.0) kidnaps kids to work in their illegal mines and logging, and forces their dads/uncles to take “contracts” to secure the eventual release of their kids, if anybody is still alive at the end of a year. Spoiler alert, nobody lives.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    A fascinating read in FA on how Xi might see Putin & Russia (admittedly speculative):

    Xi Jinping’s Russian Lessons
    What the Chinese Leader’s Father Taught Him About Dealing With Moscow

    By Joseph Torigian
    June 24, 2024

    Highly recommend any of Torigian’s works on CPC leaders past & present.

    Personally, I suspect Xi & the current CPC leadership have not that sentimental about Putin or Russia, or at least do not allow sentiment to drive their policy decision making in any meaningful way. If the the US &/or the EU offered the prospect of dialing down the Great Power Competition & the trade/tech./ideological wars against the PRC, I think Xi might be willing to abandon any direct or direct support of the Russian war effort in Ukraine, though not to the extent of seeing Russia devolve or taken over by a pro-Western regime. However, since  there is little prospect of such an offer, certainly not from the US (whoever wins in Nov.), the PRC leadership will continue w/ down the path that people like Joseph Torigian & Alexander Gabuev have outlined.

    The EU alone will probably not be able to entice Beijing to change course, both because the EU has not gone nearly as far down the path of Great Power Competition (& the attendant trade/tech./ideological wars) as the US, & therefore has less room to backoff, & because the EU can offer fewer meaningful carrots to the PRC. The EU can probably ensure that Beijing’s help to Moscow remain indirect (as in dual use items, only), & that indirect assistance does not escalate substantially from where it is today.

Comments are closed.