President Biden: Trump hasn't done anything in 10 days. He's been riding around a golf cart in Mar-a-Lago with his wealthy friends. I'm not running because of the rich guys. I'm running for the American people. I beat Donald Trump last time, I'll beat him this time pic.twitter.com/SBvVau3IvJ
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) July 8, 2024
Biden says he won't step aside. But if he does, here's why Harris is the favorite to replace him https://t.co/hysKprjcEv
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 9, 2024
This is actually a good summary (of all the stuff we’ve been telling each other over the last week), if you have friends or loved ones who need updating. The Associated Press:
President Joe Biden insists that only “the Lord Almighty” can convince him to quit the presidential race. But should he change his mind, Vice President Kamala Harris is by far the best positioned to replace him.
Harris would have a head start over several of the most discussed Democratic alternatives like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. She’s already been on a winning presidential ticket with Biden, has years of goodwill banked with core party constituencies and would likely control a huge campaign fund amassed by the Biden reelection…
She’d be Biden’s most natural endorsement
The president easily locked up the Democratic nomination and party rules prevent him from simply transferring the delegates he amassed during next month’s Democratic National Convention. But a number of delegates have already suggested they’d be loyal to Harris…Challenging Harris as Biden’s alternative is risky
Harris is the first woman to serve as vice president as well as the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent. African Americans are Democrats’ largest and most loyal bloc of supporters.Bypassing a historic No. 2 for anyone else — even a popular alternative from a key swing state — would already be difficult. Being seen as leading the charge against someone who broke gender and racial barriers could forever mark the challenger as disloyal in future Democratic primaries…
Democrats with national ambitions may not want a rushed campaign
Since Biden’s disastrous debate, Democrats have mentioned a parade of top alternatives who could run in the president’s place. In addition to Whitmer and Newsom, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Illinois Gov. J. B. Pritzker have been the subject of rumors. All of them have said they’ll continue to back Biden.But, in dozens of interviews, Democratic operatives, pollsters and elected officials report that there has not been the kind of furious political jockeying for support for someone other than Harris at the convention that would be necessary if Biden were to step aside. Any such discussions have occurred quietly and preliminarily and would almost certainly be forced out in the open if Biden were to leave the race, making continuing them more difficult…
Her legal background might resonate more than it once did
At 59, the vice president is 22 years Biden’s junior. A former prosecutor, she can deliver a withering attack in a debate — as Biden himself once faced during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary when Harris tore into him over his onetime opposition to school busing as a means of desegregation…Harris has a 62% favorability among Black Americans compared to 37% for Hispanic Americans and 35% for white Americans. Those are all similar to Biden’s, though there could be more opportunity for her to shape opinions. Roughly 12% of U.S. adults said they aren’t familiar enough with Harris to give an opinion, whereas nearly everyone has an opinion of Biden.
Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump new poll shows, performs better than Joe Biden https://t.co/HOTIayEzQh via @USATODAY @fran_chambers
— Michael Collins (@mcollinsNEWS) July 9, 2024
I’d be more than happy however these two appear on the ballot in November…
Also of global interest:
NATO leaders are descending on Washington. Here's what to know https://t.co/McdedRMeRG
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 8, 2024
The problem isn’t Democrats, who have displayed unprecedented levels of unity and message discipline over the last 10 days.
The issue is the Beltway media is all in on “but her emails 2.0.”
I’m stuck in a 2016 redux.
Send Xanax. https://t.co/a5Xz8TG6XO
— Rachel Bitecofer ???????? (@RachelBitecofer) July 8, 2024
Hakeem Jeffries told me: “Yes, I made clear the day after the debate, publicly, that I support President Joe Biden and the Democratic ticket. My position has not changed." pic.twitter.com/aqGqAy5qTI
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) July 8, 2024
Nobody cares but my read on the composition of the Biden Must Go movement among the media:
1) Liberals anxious that he'll lose
2) Saviour Complex people (partisan for the media rather than for Dems)
3) Rs arguing in bad faith
4) Sickos who love chaos bc it leads to scoops— Blitz Primary (by Oprah™) (@canderaid) July 9, 2024
2s are Journalism is Important people. They want Trump to lose in sort of an abstract way since they're the Guardians of Democracy so they sort of overlap with 1 but they aren't as liberal and also want to "hold Biden accountable" for real and imagined faults
— Blitz Primary (by Oprah™) (@canderaid) July 9, 2024
4s are big ol freaks who work in news bc they love news and want it to be constantly breaking around them as hard and as loud as possible. They want Trump to win on some level (he is a firehose of news) but they want Biden to drop purely bc its huge news that begets further news
— Blitz Primary (by Oprah™) (@canderaid) July 9, 2024
On The Road – ema – A Parade, A Wrinkle, And A Few Rooftop Babies
Caveatimperator
As previously stated, it’s very telling that the media thinks a bad debate performance and vague rumors are sufficient reason for a Democrat to drop out, but 34 felony convictions and a proven rape in a court of law are not sufficient reason for a Republican to drop out.
japa21
Good morning morning.
No comment on the issue. I’ve spoken my piece.
Except to say number 1, liberals afraid they’ll lose is probably the smallest number of the 4
Jeffro
Joe should resign, and then Kamala should name him as her VP. And then the following week, Kamala should resign, and Joe should name her as his VP. Lather, rinse, repeat all the way ’til November so that our blessed Beltway punditariat can get their clicks. Think people would get the message? IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO’S ON THE DEM TICKET, OR IN WHAT ORDER: TRUMPOV MUST BE STOPPED.
On a side note, it would be kind of funny to have a President who was our 46th, 48th, 50th, 52nd, 54th, 56th….and 84th president! (As well as our 47th, 49th, 51st, 53rd…and 83rd Madam President!)
Candidates in 2028: “Make me your 85th president, America!” LO
ETA: don’t anyone run with this idea, I’m gonna see if I can whip up a funny op-ed about it!
Chris
2 is far too kind to the media. They want Trump to drop out because they find him embarrassing and not their kind of Republican, and also because they’re afraid he’s bad electorally, but they don’t even “sort of” overlap with liberals (even if far too many liberals think they do) and their beef with Dems has nothing to do with holding them accountable.
Again, the media essentially handed us the script all the way back in the 2020 election cycle:
1) Biden was supposed to get rid of Trump for them.
2) Trump was supposed to go away.
3) Biden was supposed to selflessly, patriotically, and inspirationally step down because of his age, totally ignoring the utter chaos that this decision would plunge his party and its electoral chances into.
4) A Moderate Republican was supposed to cruise to victory in 2024, thus restoring Washington to its rightful ruling class and bringing balance back to the Force.
Trump, Biden, Republican primary voters, and Democratic primary voters have all obstinately refused to play along with their little fantasy, and now that they think they have a shot at it, they’re trying to effectively force Biden into living up to at least his part of their dream.
sdhays
I’m just glad that if Trump manages to win, we won’t have an old man allegedly experiencing cognitive decline in the White House.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone 😊 😊 😊
Attempted Chemistry
How the hell do we drag the narrative back to Trump’s manifest unfitness for office?
Mike E
@Jeffro: “Dear Mr. President, there are too many states nowadays. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.”
@Attempted Chemistry: yes
Dangerman
… would have to send out teams to clean up the mess after all the predictable heads explode. Not advocating for exploding heads (see messy plus I’m an extreme pacifist) beyond no head means no vote.
Chris
@Attempted Chemistry:
I have no idea. I’ve been saying since long before this that the media’s bias is our single biggest long-term liability, but I have no idea what we can possibly do about so long as most people, including a stupendous number on our side, think the media is either “liberal” or “unbiased and trustworthy.”
People used to think this about the courts, and Dobbs seems to have finally broken that delusion, so it shouldn’t be impossible. But I have no idea what it’s going to take if even HillaryzEmailz couldn’t do it.
Eyeroller
The media are in a full-blown meltdown now. Even Jen Rubin joined the wagon circle. It seems to have gotten worse since Peter Baker’s sloppy, innuendo-filled hit piece has been easily discredited. “You’re as bad as Trumpers!” they scream. “Why won’t you listen to us, your betters, and let us get rid of this candidate we have decided, and have told everybody, is terrible, and let us choose a new one for you?”
lowtechcyclist
@Jeffro:
A brilliant idea, but there’s one fly in the ointment: in each instance, the new VP would need confirmation by a majority vote in each house of Congress. (25th Amendment, section 2.) I expect Squeaker Johnson would eventually get around to holding a vote, but only after several weeks of dithering.
Belafon
@Attempted Chemistry: Hopefully weak-willed Democrats will learn to stop jumping when they see their shadow.
Suzanne
@Attempted Chemistry:
My question is this: will dragging the narrative back to TFG’s manifest unfitness for office be helpful in winning over a significant percentage of the Ariana Grande voters?
I am increasingly convinced that we are almost entirely of two teams now, with a pretty small group of persuadables (who are actually largely low-info idiots). And I don’t know if we have any great sense about what affects them.
lowtechcyclist
@Dangerman:
The man standing next to me, his head was exploding,
I was praying the pieces wouldn’t fall on me.
-Dylan, “Day of the Locusts”
OzarkHillbilly
I am shocked, shocked I tell you!
Geminid
@Attempted Chemistry: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and surrogates like Newsom and Whitmer know we need to shift the spotlight back to Trump and are messaging accordingly, at campaign and other events. One way we can help is to review their speeches and propagate select parts as best we can; spreading the word.
prostratedragon
The RNC 2024 platform, complete with what are likely to be several bare-faced lies.
Leto
Stage 10 (day 11) of the Tour de France today. Slightly warmer day at 80F, but it’s basically an entirely flat stage. Should be a good sprinter’s stage at the end.
Tony Jay
@Attempted Chemistry:
“Do you feel President Biden is still fit to hold his office?”
“Without a doubt, and so do you, and so do the millions of Americans who voted him into office and will vote him into office again in November. Meanwhile the Republican Party are trying to smuggle a multiply convicted fraudster and sexual offender into office and you people are pretending he doesn’t exist. Ask me if I think Donald Trump is fit for office. I don’t. Americans don’t. And Joe Biden sure doesn’t. Now ask me why.”
Over and over and over again. Don’t accept their framing and don’t let a microphone go to waste.
Elizabelle
Notice that in the final cartoon, all the Democratic donkeys seem to be male.
They are all in suits and ties, and they’re all talking and none seem to be listening.
Me. Me. Me. Me. Me.
TBone
Tired of beating a dead horse. Focus on the locus.
Six minutes from Angry Staffer.
https://crooksandliars.com/2024/07/project-2025-most-dangerous-agenda
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@lowtechcyclist: I was about to stick that exact broom handle into the spokes of Jeffro’s snark, but since you already did it, I don’t have to.
Except that I don’t have your confidence that the Speaker would let a VP-designate pass the House, not when he’s next in line for the Presidency behind Harris.
lowtechcyclist
The only approach I can think of is to accuse the media of having endorsed Trump.
I mean, how else can you interpret it when they call for Biden to step down, but don’t say diddly about Trump who is far less capable on his best day of handling the responsibilities of the Presidency than Biden is on his worst day.
TBone
@Tony Jay: we need you to have your own “MSM” empire.
Jeffro
@lowtechcyclist: aw, dang it!
Reality checks are no fun.
Leto
@Tony Jay: you excited for today’s game? Should be good. What’s your prediction for if it’ll go to PKs?
O. Felix Culpa
@prostratedragon:
This is my shocked face.
Betty
I see another article on why Kamala must take over the campaign. I continue to ask whether anyone has considered how she feels about that.
Leto
@Elizabelle: good observation
Elizabelle
@Eyeroller: Jen Rubin has joined the dark side? I peeked in at the BezosPost yesterday, and saw Colbert King, who is older than Biden, advising him to step down, with a religious parable at the end, no less. Gah.
I really like Colbert King, and was disappointed.
Belafon
@Suzanne: For them, we have Dobbs, 2025, Ariana Grande, and Taylor Swift.
O. Felix Culpa
@Betty: Excellent observation. She’s the obvious–and only choice imo–were Biden to step down. Which He. Is. Not. Doing.
However, in hypothetical fairy-land, were anyone to bother to ask her, her answer would likely be “I’m part of Biden’s team as his VP candidate. Next?”
Eyeroller
@Elizabelle: Not exactly, but she had a tweet defending the media obsession with Biden while ignoring Trump. They all go with the excuse “We really are afraid Trump will win you must listen to our counsel on what you must do.”
Leto
@Betty: she’s stated her position pretty clearly since the debate: I stand with Joe Biden. At this point, it’s just braying by the jackasses.
schrodingers_cat
@Betty: Its an op. If Kamala takes over now, she will be easier to take down. Its Biden-Harris for 2024. Harris-Biden boomlet started with the DSA contingent last week. I don’t buy their new found love for Harris at all.
CBC and KHive are in agreement about that. Their political judgment has been unerring so far unlike the bleating white punditeriat.
Reposting this from the other morning thread:
BTW Modi has been hugging it out with Putin in Moscow. Expect attacks from the BJP IT cell on Kamala Harris. In 2020 though their effect was miniscule BJP’s IT cell was working on behalf of the Orange Moron. I noticed it during the contentious period after the elections and the run up to Jan 6
Elizabelle
@lowtechcyclist: Agree.
And I think the tweets by the Blitz Primary tweeter are puerile and give too much credit to the media.
TBone
The GQP 2024 platform for winning the Ovum Office. Tear it up like you’re Nancy Smash at the SOTU:
https://www.npr.org/2024/07/08/nx-s1-5033015/rnc-republican-party-platform-2024
FETAL PERSONHOOD UNDER THE FOURTEENTH AMENDMENT? GTFOH
Almost Retired
I was a bit of a holdout, but I finally canceled my NY Times daily home delivery subscription. Obviously, the discussion regarding Biden is newsworthy but the volume and tenor of the “coverage” was patently biased (and I’m not even talking about the relentlessly negative editorials). Good riddance. I told them why in excruciating detail .
It has also gotten rather expensive. I’ll redirect the money I’m saving to BJ fundraisers. And also to better wine. Much better wine….
UncleEbeneezer
5- Uber Progressives who low-key hate/resent the Dem Party, had to “hold their nose” to vote for Biden in 2020 and now push this bullshit to prove they were right all along. Call these people Liberal and they will be downright offended and will vehemently correct you that they are Progressive.
Examples: Jon Favreau and PSA dudes, Brian Beutler, Mehdi Hassan, Zaid Jilani, Aaron Mate, Corey Robin, everyone at Salon, The Nation, Jacobin, Nina Turner, Brianna Joy Grey, Erik Loomis, Scott Lemieux, Paul Campos, Matt Duss, etc.
Chris
@Elizabelle:
Paul Krugman’s the one who’s disgusted me. He’s not always right and his demands aren’t always sensible, but he’s got a solid 25-year record of acknowledging the gigantic double standards to which Democrats are subjected and the media’s centrality in promoting bad faith narratives to kneecap Democratic presidents and presidential candidates.
A lot of the pundits joining the stampede are doing what they’ve always done. For Krugman, this is easily the worst thing he’s ever done.
O. Felix Culpa
Ana Navarro’s rant on behalf of Biden was epic…and funny. Isn’t she a former Republican? She’s doing a better job of standing by our candidate than many unnamed highly placed Democrats. And a few named ones too.
Eyeroller
@Chris: Krugman joining in was the last straw that finally overcame my inertia and got me to cancel the FTFNYT.
eclare
@Suzanne:
I keep seeing the term Ariana Grande voters. What is the origin/context for that? She has registered people to vote at her concerts in the past.
UncleEbeneezer
@Elizabelle: I saw a journalist I used to respect doing the Blitz Primary bullshit yesterday…ugh…
Elizabelle
@Eyeroller: Thank you.
Because, if you are trying to take out an intending dictator, how better to do it than to attempt to mortally wound his opponent?
It’s a clusterfuck, and they are nothing but fuckers. I hope we win and this ends up in the history books as “ can you believe these fuckers?”
TBone
Still going strong music
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jMkdvY2Z2Xk
comrade scotts agenda of rage
This isn’t true, it’s an account by a comedian and political satirist but it’s too funny not to share:
https://twitter.com/HalfwayPost/status/1810442983940166041
schrodingers_cat
John-both-sides-Stewart wants an audition for the President.
Elizabelle
@Chris: Yes. It’s sad to see K-Thug (affectionate name for him) turn into K-Fuck.
schrodingers_cat
@UncleEbeneezer: We are also supposed to trust their new found love for Kamala Harris. They must think we are stupid.
O. Felix Culpa
@schrodingers_cat: He can stuff it in many unpleasant ways. Got no time for that simpleton.
TBone
@O. Felix Culpa: I watched The View for that episode. Whoopi was also not taking any shit. They should have set Joy Behar loose on fucking Alyssa Farah Griffin in a cage match fight to the death.
Leto
@O. Felix Culpa: as always, the eternal quote of: “Amateurs talk strategy; professionals talk logistics” comes into play with this. The logistics of anyone trying to start a campaign at day 1, at this point, is just insane. This needs to be another question that’s asked to anyone who proposes “magical hero Democrat” who will ride in on their unicorn to save us all: how will you start a campaign at day 1, with no time to get any infrastructure in place? With all the legal challenges that Republicans will throw up, in EVERY state, to anyone trying to now fill the Presidential candidate role with courts who will absolutely drag their asses to ensure Trumpov wins?
And when they don’t have an answer, or just wave it away, you punch them in the throat and never talk/listen to them again.
Almost Retired
@O. Felix Culpa: Yup, Ana Navarro was an insufferable Jen Bush shill 10 years ago, but Trump pushed her over the edge and into sanity.
Fair Economist
@Caveatimperator:
This needs to be our universal response to any discussions of Biden’s fitness (amply demonstrated by him continuing to do his job superbly AND make multiple unscripted appearances, while Trump has to hide at Mar-a-Lago). Keep the focus on the outrageous media bias, where it belongs.
Geminid
I checked out the Manu Raju tweet about Hakeem Jeffries affirming his support for Joe Biden. Raju had another question, about whether Jeffries was worried that President Biden might hurt the Democrats’ chances of taking the House of Representatives. Jeffries gave a simple answer;
This was classic Jeffries; he knows when 9 words are much, much better than 90.
schrodingers_cat
@O. Felix Culpa: He is now a part of the mediaborg. So he feels personally attacked.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@O. Felix Culpa:
She was a GQP water carrier for decades, typical right wing media pundit type.
I view her like I view the Lincoln Project people: they’re Stalin but right now, Stalin’s an ally. She’s no Stuart Stevens or Jen Rubin in terms of former righties and their public support of Biden but yeah, her stuff this week has been a helluva lot better than the Loyal-Dem-Buts crowd.
Elizabelle
@Chris: incidentally, I have really enjoyed your comments, and loved hearing that you voted at the French Embassy. Congratulations there.
I think you bring an interesting perspective to the blog.
O. Felix Culpa
@schrodingers_cat:
ROFL. As you’ve pointed out in previous comments, they’re already sharpening their daggers for her. If she were to become the presidential candidate, the bloodletting would be epic. And not in a good way.
schrodingers_cat
@Leto: This.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Elizabelle:
Yup. A couple of years back he made some posts about a specific economic issue in which he basically promoted a neoliberal, Reaganomic approach, turning his back on basically a lifetime of what he’d spoken out against, and I thought “WTF?” He lost me then.
Fair Economist
@O. Felix Culpa:
Ex-Republicans understand that the best thing to do politically is to support your side. Voters reward loyalty and confidence, and punish disloyalty and cowardice.
TBone
Swimming in Vatnik Soup!
I could eat a bowl of Alphabet soup and shit out better reasons than the MSM has for a wedge issue.
https://vatniksoup.com/
Attempted Chemistry
@eclare: One of the FP guys at LGM refers to people who aren’t paying attention to politics as “Ariana Grande voters”. Saying they aren’t news junkies, they know as much about politics as he does about Ariana Grande – she’s a singer, she sings that one song, and there his knowledge pretty much ends.
TBone
@Elizabelle:
@Chris:
What Elizabelle said.
Mike E
@eclare: it’s the Warren Harding Dems epithet I don’t get… sorry, Tonya, what does it mean?
O. Felix Culpa
@Fair Economist:
As they should.
3Sice
The only value proposition for turning news into revenue is credibility. This story is now the longest industry suicide note in history.
Fair Economist
@Geminid:
It’ll be hard for him to match the unbelievably skilled negotiator Pelosi, but Jeffries does seem better than her at media. And he’s done pretty well holding his caucus together so far. I have high hopes for him.
Jeffro
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: can patrons exchange the shot for a second PBR?
asking for a friend ;)
Mike E
@Attempted Chemistry: it’s a Gen Z bash, “get off my lawn” type flex
Chris
@eclare:
It comes from LGM.
The writer who came up with it (I don’t remember which front-pager it was) is aware of Ariana Grande, he knows she’s kind of a big deal, because it’s basically impossible to have been alive for the last decade, at least in America, and not at least know the name “Ariana Grande.” However, he knows absolutely nothing substantive about her.
His point is that as far as most of the U.S. population is concerned, this is how they relate to politics. Swap out “Ariana Grande” for “Joe Biden” and “Donald Trump” as needed.
Elizabelle
I think the lemming like media is now the Emperor wears no clothes. As already is the craven orange nude they have been assisting for years. Not an attractive image, is it?
Elizabelle
@3Sice: Yes it is. I think it will be taught in universities and J-schools, assuming they don’t succeed in ushering in fascism.
Chris
@Elizabelle:
Thank you most kindly!
TBone
@3Sice: 💜
Betty Cracker
@Tony Jay: Brilliant! Every Biden surrogate should adopt that approach immediately.
@Elizabelle: Fair point! But I like the notion it ostensibly illustrates, i.e., Dems are hashing it out loudly and passionately while Repubs just rolled over for their addled fascist conman.
eclare
@Attempted Chemistry:
Thanks! That’s pretty insulting, not sure that’s a good strategy. Especially when Ariana seems to be on our side.
https://www.headcount.org/ariana/
Leto
Things I learned: apparently a few years ago someone sabotaged one of the roads for the Tour de France, resulting in a lot of flat tires for the riders. There’s been a lot of flats today, and the commentators are hoping that’s not the case again. Assholes are gonna asshole.
Chris
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
You remember what the issue was by any chance? I haven’t followed him much for the last couple years – used to read his op eds but then the NYT made it basically impossible for non-subscribers to read, and then Musk enshittified Twitter so that I couldn’t even follow his Twitter feed anymore.
eclare
@Mike E:
I guess that we kneecap people? But she kneecapped her opposition, we’re doing it to our own.
schrodingers_cat
@Chris: The smugness of these white leftists bros (they are overwhelmingly male) is so off-putting. They think they are oh-so smart when they keep falling for every con in the book
@eclare: GMTA.
snoey
@eclare: said better above
Eyeroller
@Mike E: Tonya Harding was a figure skater who was at best involved in a coverup of an attack on her rival Nancy Kerrigan in 1994, orchestrated by her then-husband (or maybe ex-husband/live-in at that time). They attempted to break her kneecaps but only succeeded in bruising her thigh.
UncleEbeneezer
@Attempted Chemistry: At this point, I trust Ariana Grande fans more than several front-page posters at LGM. At least AG fans aren’t obsessed with throwing the election to Trump and spitting in the face of our Dem Base.
Betty Cracker
@UncleEbeneezer: Favreau and the PSA dudes hate the party now? Jesus.
opiejeanne
@OzarkHillbilly: That KC* in the article about the Tate assholes threw me for a second, because it was QC for almost my whole life.
*King’s Councillor. I have watched a lot of British shows, especially Rumpole of the Bailey, where “taking silk” and getting one’s bottom on the bench was the aim of the worst lawyers in his office.
Jeffro
Rampell up in the Post w/ a good piece about trumpov’s ridiculous assertion that he knows nothing about Project 2025
Lying liar lies right to everyone’s faces, expects to be believed
Mike E
@Eyeroller: I knew that! But, for some reason, it didn’t resonate… thanks.
@eclare: I’m dumb, thanks
M31
I think it comes from LGM — one of the front pagers said something like “I’m a 50-something white guy and here’s what i know about Ariana Grande — is a pop star whose name I have heard. Couldn’t pick her out of a lineup, couldn’t name even one song, even though she’s had tons of hits and is famous with young people.”
the analogy is between the politically aware (the youngs who know all her songs by heart and lots of stuff about her), vs. the average voter (the 50something white guy who knows her name and that’s all)
asking ‘voters’ to conclude that Biden is actually just fine given the many appearances, rallies, and interviews he’s done since his lackluster debate is like asking a LGM front pager to name and rank Ariana Grande’s last 5 hits
something like that
lowtechcyclist
@Eyeroller:
Then they and their media outlets must say that out loud, like the Philadelphia Inquirer did. They must say early and often that they are adamantly opposed to a second Trump Presidency because he would be a disaster on everything from the survival of our democracy to the fate of humanity on Earth due to climate change. And that they would be equally opposed to any other Republican that refused to repudiate Project 2025 or acknowledge the reality of global warming.
Once they did that, then they would at least be couching their recommendation that Biden step down in terms of the absolute necessity of defeating Trump in November. But absent such a declaration, their continued insistence that Biden should step aside constitutes a de facto endorsement of a second Trump Presidency.
opiejeanne
@O. Felix Culpa:
She has announced that she is running as the VP candidate and that President Biden is the Presidential candidate.
Leto
@Betty Cracker: idk about hate, but they sure do take endless shots at the party, all the damn time. Again, his “Wilderness” podcast was basically how do we win back the white voters. Low info/independent voters, but nothing about how do we overcome disenfranchised voters? Gerrymander voters? Voter roll purges, and all that. Anyone who’s been fucked by conservatives, like Mark Elias’s group consistently does.
M31
@Jeffro: time to start asking Trump if he’ll fire everyone in his campaign who signed the Project 2025 thing
what? there’d be no campaign left?
huh
Jeffro
(Biden/Harris 2024 via Twitter)
video of Pennsylvania voter: “The bottom line is, I’m going with Joey Jobs over Donnie-Do-Nothing any day of the week”
WIN
tam1MI
Just out of curiosity, what was the reaction of the person you talked to when you did?
M31
lol and it has nothing to do with Ariana Grande herself or her fans or their views and voting habits
it’s about a 50something white guy front pager at LGM and his worldview
hahahahahaha
I mean, it’s a good analogy but it’s still so on point to center the 50something white guy feels
O. Felix Culpa
@Betty Cracker:
I don’t know. I used to listen to them back in the early days, but got tired of their smug white dudebro talk. Someone else observed that these are pretty smart guys who had the good fortune to work for the one real political unicorn in our lifetimes, namely Obama. So they think they’re political super-geniuses. They’ve been huffing each other’s farts for a long time, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they’ve lost the plot wrt Biden and the current Democratic Party.
M31
time to make it even more modern and apropo:
But what about the Skibidee Toilet voters?
Almost Retired
@tam1MI: an offer of a reduced subscription rate.
Chris
@Fair Economist:
I think it’s also that if you jumped ship from Republican to Democrat, especially this late in the game, you did it for a reason, and that reason hasn’t gone away just because the Democratic candidate had one bad debate. They’re not on our side because they’re deeply invested in any individual candidate; they couldn’t care less about Joe Biden per se, or any other candidate. They’re on our side because they recognize that we’re the only ones who are even trying to uphold a version of America that they can recognize and believe in. Who we put on the ticket matters only marginally.
In short, they have their eye on the ball.
Not all ex-Republicans are like this, but many seem to be. Unfortunately, there’s not that many of them.
Mike E
@O. Felix Culpa: Ana Navarro… Dick Fuckin Cheney…Manchin, AOC and hundreds of others are showing out and showing up. I think everyone is correct in calling for the campaign to keep hammering the press over their kneecapping coverage of the president while simultaneously going after Mafia Don and P25, that’s how you reach the voters and win big.
jimmiraybob
@schrodingers_cat:
“John-both-sides-Stewart wants an audition for the President.”
Only if it is 100% answering tough questions about what is actually in the Constitution.
For instance: “Gentlemen/Ladies (as becomes applicable), please explain the significance of the 9th Amendment.”
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: Paragraph 47 at the end:
“Democrats say that TCFFG is an incompetent menace that will destroy the Constitution, but of course the opposition says that. Importantly, our polls so far indicate that Biden’s throat-clearing is of greater concern to voters.”
Probably.
Grr…,
Scott.
schrodingers_cat
That describes me and many voters who have a lot more a stake than who would be great to have a beer with.
Chris
@UncleEbeneezer:
As I’ve said quite a few times, the partisan voters on both sides who don’t follow politics closely but still turn out to vote fairly reliably are by far the most rational people in the country in terms of their political behavior. They’re not obsessively following what amounts to royal court gossip and deluding themselves that it makes them informed citizens. They picked the party whose general shape and direction were right for them and they’re sticking by it unless that changes.
Betty Cracker
@Leto: I’m not a regular PSA listener, but I’ve heard enough episodes to get the impression the O-bros are solid Dems. Putting them in the same bin as Jacobin therefore sounds off. I don’t think I’ve ever listened to The Wilderness, but I’ve heard ads for recent episodes that allegedly focus on young voters, Latinos, etc.
Another Scott
@Leto: +1
Biden has 3896 delegates. 1986 delegates are needed for the nomination.
Biden will be the nominee.
All the rest is commentary.
Eyes on the prizes, folks.
Cheers,
Scott.
opiejeanne
@Almost Retired: I got that offer when I unsubscribed from WaPo last week. The next day I got an email from them saying they missed me, would I like to come back for this greatly reduced price?
I blocked WaPo as spam.
opiejeanne
@Mike E: Dick Cheney??? I missed that one.
lowtechcyclist
@Almost Retired:
I actually signed up for a WaPo online subscription recently, the intro rate was $1/month for the first year, cancel anytime. I figure it’s worth a buck a month to be able to snipe at them in comments. But that’s the sort of rate it took – I’d passed on rates as low as $29 for a year.
Elizabelle
Margaret Sullivan has a good column up in The Guardian, taking the press frenzy and specifically the New York Times to task.
opiejeanne
@Chris: Some of those ex-Republicans sound like they’re never going back, although every now and then there’s a slightly teary bit of nostalgia for the Old Days from some of them. I think Nicole Wallace fits that description.
eclare
@opiejeanne:
I saw it on Twitter yesterday. I just googled and can’t find it, but yes. Remember what TCFG did to Liz. Cheneys hold grudges.
rikyrah
Ragnarok Lobster![]()
(@eclecticbrotha) posted at 8:24 AM on Tue, Jul 09, 2024:
Democrats now being attacked The Very Smart People In Media™ for closing ranks around their nominee instead of hanging him out to dry so the pundit class can tee off on him like a pinata.
(https://x.com/eclecticbrotha/status/1810666401859870968?t=QeT-9Gdh8Kq5VBLRoiydVw&s=03)
opiejeanne
@rikyrah: Have I told you how much I love you? You are a treasure on this blog.
rikyrah
Eva McKend (@evamckend) posted at 7:08 AM on Tue, Jul 09, 2024:
As I told @DanaBashCNN today on @InsidePolitics, the message I heard from many Black voters this weekend at @essencefest, “Stick with the game plan.”
These voters are most concerned about keeping former President Donald Trump from winning a second term.
https://t.co/SLOqrh4In6 https://t.co/JGD1iG3lZR
(https://x.com/evamckend/status/1810647176361787790?t=artp9uoC4Sv94PehHjSIaA&s=03)
tam1MI
I’ve been hearing a lot of anecdotal stuff about folks cancelling the FYFNYT especially, was wondering if anyone is getting hints from the demeanor of the operators that they are getting a flood of cancellations or if this is just business as usual.
opiejeanne
@eclare: Yes. I find that both encouraging and terrifying. I always thought Cheney was the anti-Christ, until we got a really good look at Trump.
UncleEbeneezer
@schrodingers_cat: The PodSaveAmerica dudes have the sadly common, Progressive trait of thinking that supporting Police Abolition, Black Maternal Healthcare etc., means they understand the Black Community. This whole affair is really clarifying who actually listens to Black People and who just likes it as a performative slogan.
narya
Joy Reid was ON FIRE last night in defense of Joey Jobs and MVP–she was particularly pointed about Black support for JB and MVP.
rikyrah
Tiff4Mahogany_44 🇺🇦🇺🇸 NATO MEMBER
@tiff4mahogany
Chuck Todd doesn’t have a degree. In order for a black man to get Todd’s opportunities they have to be a journalism professor at Columbia.
He better not mention DEI.
11:13 PM · Jul 8, 2024
https://x.com/tiff4mahogany/status/1810527593180835942
bbleh
@Suzanne: an excellent question, to which I believe the Major Media, in all their wisdom, likewise do not have an answer. And I was once told by a senior Senate staffer, “they’re like a black box — you put things in but you never know what’s going to come out.”
The people who are likely to know better than anyone — us, the media, the pundits, et al — are, surprise! the professional politicians, eg, Joe Biden.
I do worry that the Narrative may be affecting their beliefs. But it wasn’t news that “Biden is old,” just as it’s not news that “Trump is a liar and a tyrant.” The media focus on one and ignore the other but it’s really unclear what of that gets through.
I will say that, having got sick of the nonsense and just disconnected for a while, it was VERY easy to ignore it entirely, so I can see how it could be that NONE of it is getting through.
Chris
@opiejeanne:
I mean, there are definitely Republicans who only converted for Trump and are watching eagerly for any excuse to go back to the GOP, possibly even if it doesn’t dump Trump. But there are others for whom it’s been eye opening enough that they’re never going back.
(Of course, the vast majority of Republicans did neither and stuck with fascism. Because as far as they were concerned, that’s what they chose a long time ago).
rikyrah
@opiejeanne:
awe, thanks.
I really appreciate BJ. Even when we get trolls. They are so obvious, it’s sorta funny.
Slightly_peeved
@eclare:
Paul Campos wrote a whole essay about using “people interested in Ariana Grande” as a stand-in for people who aren’t interested in politics rather than just saying “people who aren’t interested in politics”. He then made it a thing so he could act clever.
rikyrah
Candidly Tiff (@tify330) posted at 7:05 AM on Tue, Jul 09, 2024:
Can’t believe the media & elites thought they could pull off a coup on Biden’s campaign literally right before our eyes. Sad part is there are people in congress, 2020 loser candidates and Dems who actually played into it.
Y’all are some suckers for real, for real.![]()
(https://x.com/tify330/status/1810646516693946614?t=zCpKlUwTkflusd8BswgfDw&s=03)
rikyrah
colorfullstory (@colorfullstory) posted at 6:12 AM on Tue, Jul 09, 2024:
People calling for Biden to step down are leaving out one important point
YOU ARE VOTING FOR THE PRESIDENT & HIS CABINET!!!!!!
The president has an entire team. He is not Trump. He is not a monarch. He is not a dictator.
How are we in July & it’s still not clicking?
(https://x.com/colorfullstory/status/1810633185241489902?t=Da3RQD1mCz3zlcQ9Rcd5Xw&s=03)
bbleh
@tam1MI: @lowtechcyclist: @opiejeanne: having subscribed for a LONG time but also having moved a lot, I’m pretty confident this is just SOP. And I think the reason is, ESPECIALLY for home-delivery subscribers (to whom lumps of paper must be delivered), newspapers don’t make much of their profit from subscriptions; they make it from ADVERTISING, and what attracts advertisers is READERSHIP. So they’re happy to deliver you their product at or near cost (or even below), if they can in turn sell your eyeballs to their advertisers.
rikyrah
Ryan (@Ryanspeaks140) posted at 7:32 AM on Tue, Jul 09, 2024:
It’s not a weight lifting contest.
He is running against a 78 year old convicted felon who wants to be a dictator & you mfs are acting like orange man is 52.
Project 2025 is in writing & you all act like it’s just conjecture. They have TOLD YOU in WRITING what is up.
(https://x.com/Ryanspeaks140/status/1810653159267729526?t=TfN9N64nQPMIfc2r-rLdiw&s=03)
Tony Jay
@Leto:
Tonight’s game, yes. Very much. Spain should win, but I’ve got money on France. Allons Y!
With respect to our game tomorrow, ‘Looking forward to’ isn’t the phrase I’d use. We’ve been slowly (ever so slowly) improving from our turgid beginning form, but we simply can’t go on stuffing a team of exciting attacking talents into a stultifying defensive crouch and only playing well for five minutes after we concede a goal. And penalties just frizz me, can’t deal with them.
Mike E
@Tony Jay: the matchup suits the 3Lions imo, best of luck
Jackie
@O. Felix Culpa:
Yes, she’s an ex-Republican, and like so many other ex’s, hates TCFG for what he and MAGA have turned their former party into – even more than Democrats do.
Almost Retired
@tam1MI: The representative I spoke with seemed well-trained to not engage beyond renegotiating the subscription rate. Also insofar as “this call may be recorded for quality control purposes,” I assumed she toed the line lest her boss be listening in.
UncleEbeneezer
@Betty Cracker: They are Loyal-Dems-BUT. They always had an air of “stuck with Biden” despite all the great things he’s accomplished. They had to apologize to him for not taking his candidacy seriously when he finally came on their show. I always suspected that given a chance they would jump on the opportunity to push him aside and here we are. The way they talked about SC voters had a real “low-information”, low-key racist tone to my ears. Right now they are acting no different than Jacobin. In fact, they are putting quite a bit more energy into bashing Biden than even the Jacobin assholes.
Sorry, but putting all that together and yes, I consider that somewhere on the hate-resent spectrum.
zhena gogolia
@Leto: I tried to start asking those questions yesterday, but one of the people said, “You’re turning your anger onto us, and that’s not productive.” I said, “You’re policing my tone,” and she said, “I’m not policing your tone, I’m just telling you how I feel.” I left the Zoom at that point.
I’m so fed up, I’m a bad ambassador for anyone.
Suzanne
@Chris:
Sure.
There’s a related group, tho….. the people who aren’t especially partisan — they may have strong beliefs that don’t track with either party or they may just be incoherent — and turn out to vote unreliably. These are the people I’m really talking about. “Turning non-voter to voter” is an important sub-strategy for Dems. Has been for a while.
I know the common wisdom has been that this cohort needs something to vote for, not against, and thus the aspirational, positive, more image-based messaging (like how good-looking is the candidate, do they seem like you want to have a beer with them?) is aimed at this group. But I wonder how true that common wisdom is.
O. Felix Culpa
@UncleEbeneezer: They were similar about Hillary. Hold their noses and vote for her types. I also recall how they treated the occasional female guest speaker on their show, as in regularly talked over and through her. Basically, they’re contemptuous of any Dem who isn’t them. I’ll take their votes, but I won’t take their advice.
Leto
@zhena gogolia: #teambadambassador I’m right there with you. Sec Pete is a goddamned saint due to his ability to be patient, and explain things to people in concise/easily digestible ways.
schrodingers_cat
@zhena gogolia: Their vibes are more important than our votes, heck they are more important than our lives.
Elizabelle
@zhena gogolia: Just think of that as a first attempt. And you don’t always get a receptive audience.
Betty Cracker
@UncleEbeneezer: They are Democrats who believe the debate debacle fatally wounded Biden’s candidacy. According to polling, there are lots of Democrats who believe that. Anecdotally, many Democrats I know believe that too. Maybe they’re wrong, but they aren’t enemies of the party.
Elizabelle
@Betty Cracker: my question is, why would 20 bad minutes negate everything that Biden has done previously? And I understand the rest of the debate went better for him, although a lot of people had turned off in horror at that point.
I was relieved to talk to my normie friends in Arizona, who had watched the 20 minutes, were horrified, but let it drop because they were going to vote for Biden anyway.
Lapassionara
@Betty Cracker: I can understand why they think the debate hurt Biden’s candidacy, but why “fatally”? He is running against a person who has lost a part of what mental functioning he ever had. There is a reason why Trump has stayed out of sight recently. Not to mention that we know what kind of Supreme Court nominees he will make.
Suzanne
@bbleh:
The mainstream media doesn’t know. They are waning in importance every year. The media landscape is fragmented. There are very few monocultural experiences any longer, and I can absolutely assure you that reading the New York Times is not one of them. If more than 5% of their subscribership was under the age of 40, I’d be surprised.
I don’t think politicians know how to motivate these people, either. The people I trust most to understand this cohort would be marketers…. their entire job is to figure out to separate people from their money. But even that is questionable, IMO.
I have this theory that candidates matter less and less as the country gets more polarized and loyal partisan identification seems to be locking in for people at earlier ages. That would mean that blowout elections are a thing of the past, and that seems to bear out. That raises the floor and lowers the ceiling, too. So elections become about turning out the base, as Rachel Bitecofer points out. But it also means that the least reliable, least politically coherent people out could be the difference between winning and losing. After all, reliable voters are already in your corner.
This is…. not great.
Elizabelle
@Betty Cracker: I think we are a nation in anxiety and PTSD. Talking about France and Britain and Mexico results might reassure them. And Dobbs, immunity, and Project 2025 have not made the GOP’s track easier.
It is curious that the megafrenzy on age is driving out other news. What else are they distracting us from?
Elizabelle
@Suzanne: I truly think normies and a majority of actual independents will break for us. But we have to reach them with GOTV as never before.
Thank goodness for not having to conduct a major campaign during a pandemic.
theturtlemoves
@Slightly_peeved: And now he’s a Parkinson’s Truther so it would seem his lack of knowledge extends beyond popular music.
Suzanne
@Elizabelle: I hope so.
I think we are genuinely off the map here. I don’t think any of our historical precedents are great, due to significant changes in the electoral landscape.
I do think that the kind of squishy sometimes-voters I’m talking about are more affected by vibes than evidence. (Yes, I know this is dumb. I’m not defending them.) These are the people that everyone who is pants-crapping about the debate are really talking about affecting.
O. Felix Culpa
@Suzanne: None of that situation about voters is new, though. That’s why the Biden campaign had already built considerable GOTV infrastructure in all swing states already before the debate. The debate didn’t help, but it’s not clear how much it hurt in the group you’re concerned about. Continuing to worry about things we can’t control and speculating about counterfactuals doesn’t help much either. It’s FIDO time.
Soprano2
This is something I’ve pointed out too, that dumping Biden in a panic would feed the press’ “Dems in disarray” thing and show the voters that Democrats are weak and feckless. That’s the last message you want to be sending when you’re running against a mortal threat like TCFG.
I’m still the angriest at whatever Democrats were texting their panic to reporters like John King during the debate. Why weren’t they texting things about how TCFG lied constantly had has a toxic message? Whoever they are they should have their asses soundly kicked.
UncleEbeneezer
@O. Felix Culpa: Exactly. The resent the party whenever it disagrees with their brilliance. They mocked Biden as being delusional for claiming he could pass huge, Bi-Partisan legislation. The fact that they think they understood the US political landscape BETTER THAN OBAMA is just amazing. And right now after so many Dem leaders and the CBC have forcefully said “enough with this bullshit” they are just doubling-down. Sorry, but to me that definitely disqualifies them from being considered “Loyal Dems” no matter how often they vote or campaign for Dems or hate the GOP.
Stacy Abrams, Maxine Waters, Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, Ralph Warnock, etc., those are all examples of people who are 100% loyal and believe in the party. Our own star-commenter, Rikyrah is another great example.
Elizabelle
@Suzanne: Keep calm and win this election! Now, gotta get to some IRL stuff. Later gator.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: Yes, the O-bros are different than the Jerkobin crowd; their criticism comes from within the Democratic party. It may have some Sour Grapes flavor since the O-bros used to be where the action is but now they are on the outside looking in. That may have inclined them to join the media stampede.
schrodingers_cat
@UncleEbeneezer: They are paternalistic. They will tolerate you as long as just shut up and listen. They know what’s best for you.
O. Felix Culpa
@schrodingers_cat: Nailed it.
UncleEbeneezer
cain
@Elizabelle: Just notice it’s always the older folks. That’s the pattern I see – of course, there are plenty of outliers so it’s not a hard or fast rule or anything.
cain
@Almost Retired: propublica is also good -they got a great piece on tax funded anti-abortion non-profits that Texas is doing. I bet that those anti-abortion outfits are probably laundering money
O. Felix Culpa
@UncleEbeneezer: All good points, and honestly, I think most sane people (ok, that limitation might be limiting) are past the “replace Biden” siren song. Biden has said he’s running, MVP supports him, and fin. It’s FIDO time.
cain
@UncleEbeneezer: Clearly they have their marching orders.
Fair Economist
@Soprano2:
Yes! Independents were pretty split on who won the debate. Biden looked bad, sure, but the things Trump said were *horrifying*. From the get-go everybody should have been focusing on what Trump said and what he would do. That’s both more consequential and better for the good guys
Edit: In Alabama, in a hardware store, I overheard a guy saying he’d supported Trump in the past, but he was so disgusted with both guys at the debate he was planning not to vote.
Suzanne
@O. Felix Culpa: That information about voters isn’t new. This type has always existed. What is fairly new is that they are possibly pivotal. In the past, they could be safely ignored. I am far less sure of that now.
Fair Economist
@zhena gogolia:
My response to that would be “so you can’t disagree with my points, then?”
cain
@tam1MI: I think they are confident that they will come back after the uproar is over.
This is where we show them – not coming back.
These clowns are always using our fear to keep reading their bullshit – they make money off of our anxiety.
Chris
@UncleEbeneezer:
I think it’s exactly like Iraq, actually, or at least the early 9/11 years. Way too many people or should know better decided to just stampede and jump on board a preexisting narrative, either because they sincerely were panicked into being that dumb, or because they thought the narrative was so strong and so impossible to argue with that they’d lose all credibility if they didn’t go along with it.
The difference being that this time, a lot fewer elected Democrats seem to be falling for it. But if anything, even more pundits and “influencers” seem to be.
Suzanne
@O. Felix Culpa:
Well, sure…. but I do think it’s a mistake to assume that we have no persuasive power over this cohort. Damn, this is why we make all these donations to candidates! They hire people who are supposedly experts at this! We have persuaded these people before! Fuck, we won this exact matchup last time!
Eolirin
@Suzanne: A few percentage points of shift in MI, WI, and PA will make that partisan driven dynamic result in a completely unwinnable map for Republicans, and it feels like, despite the 2016 wobble, that they’re moving in that direction.
Michigan went first in breaking the Republican hold on state government, and PA is almost there as well. WI is on track to do so as well over the next few election cycles now that they’ll have fair maps.
Biden’s infrastructure and technology investments and his support of unions are all helping to fuel their economies as well. That bodes well for them to see urban growth, which will help solidify the direction they’re headed in.
We need just a little more time for that trend to get a little further along.
Suzanne
@Eolirin: I hope so. All evidence indicates that Biden is behind significantly in PA right now. The red rural areas are shrinking and all growth is urban.
I will also note that Fetterman’s strategy to win involved going to every one of those rural counties in the hopes of holding down the margin between him and his challenger, and then knowing that Philly and Pittsburgh would run up the score. Margins matter.
O. Felix Culpa
@Suzanne: They were certainly pivotal in 2020, and probably in 2016 too. Our future hinges on our ability to turn out solid Dems plus as many in that group (gulp!) as possible.
O. Felix Culpa
@Suzanne:
I don’t recall that being part of my response. Of course we need to persuade them and get their asses to the polls. Hence the huge GOTV apparatus in the swing states.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: Yeah, because we’re not there yet, PA, MI and WI are gonna be scary this year. But if we can hold on for this cycle and nothing huge upsets the path they’re on, I think in like 10 years, we’ll have margins that are basically impossible to beat there.
And then there’s no map for Republicans. They’ve already got all the big states they’re getting if they can’t keep those three in play, and they’re slowly losing ground in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
There was a real feeling of danger in 2016 that MI, WI and PA might go the way of Ohio, and then we’d be sunk. But 2022 put that to rest for me. If we win there now I’m feeling fairly confident about their future direction. We do need to win there now though. The PA polling being worse than WI(!!!) is a concern.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@O. Felix Culpa:
Yup. The Biden campaign isn’t stupid and as many of us always say, it’s about GOTV. Bitecofer is an astute analyst but GOTV effects aren’t anything new this century.
Regarding statewide efforts, many of us have been writing about this for 15 years. Of all people, McCaskill, was a great case study of how things changed in the Aughts. She lost her first statewide “upper tier” race because she did the usual campaign in Dem urban areas, nowhere else. And got beat because the rural margins were too high to overcome.
In every race afterwards, she campaigned statewide in heavily red areas. During her last campaign, she’d be in such a spot and start her stump speech by saying “You’ll see more of me than you’ll ever see of my opponent–note I’m a Dem but I’m here, in your community.” It sent an important message and even big skeptics like me were cheerleading her approach and message.
Alas, it helped until the end when the demographic shifts in those red areas that had occurred over the last 10 years simply meant there just wasn’t the numbers there anymore.
Obama’s team understood the need to *ask* rural Dems for their votes (much like Claire learned how to do) knowing they couldn’t assume they’d get them. That’s why in 08 and 12, he had the money and thus the staff to have people everywhere in every state. It mattered.
But we always come back to the changing demographics. For example, in my old country in red, rurl central Misery, by the late 90s, the general split was 60/40 (R). By the time I left in 2018, it was 82/19 (R). And this was with active (D) campaigning in places like that (not blowing it off). Again, the idea was to cut the margins but the target audience for that cut was either dead or moved away.
We still have to do this because that statewide presence has a GOTV magnifying effect even outside a red, rurl county that would never vote for a (D).
Soprano2
@Leto: I disagree with your take on the Wilderness podcast. They went to different swing states and listened to different groups of voters. That included male and female, white black and Latin voters, gay and straight. He did some Obama voter to TCFG voter groups that were wild. I didn’t see it at all as “how do we get the white male vote back”, I saw it as “how do we get these people who voted for Obama then TCFG back”. One guy liked both TCFG and AOC “because they speak their minds”! I thought it was informative.
I’ve listened to them for a long time, and I have to say I’m disappointed at how they’ve panicked over the debate. I thought they were smarter and steadier than that, plus they should know better because they’ve worked for campaigns before (they didn’t just work for Obama, they’ve also worked for other Dems too).
Soprano2
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: Yep, Obama came to Springfield in September 2008! He knew if he could get enough votes in places like Greene County he’d win, and they almost pulled it off. Then Democrats quit doing that, and look at what MO is like now. Democrats are hoping they can break the R’s supermajority in the House this year, that’s the best they can hope for. I’ve often wondered what would have happened if Mel Carnahan hadn’t been killed in that small plane crash *spit*. Small planes are the devil.
Geminid
@Eolirin: Just a two point shift in North Carolina will take16 (I think) Electoral votes out of the Republican column. I think we’ll make that happen this year, and that demographic trends will keep North Carolina Blue.
O. Felix Culpa
@cain: Would you call the Obama Bros older folks? I know you mentioned outliers, but I’ve seen more older folks calling for Biden to stay than not. The generalization doesn’t hold well.
Geminid
@O. Felix Culpa: I don’t think generalizations about age and/or ideology really apply in this controversy. The behavior of Democratic politicians and influencers seems more a matter of character.
There may be a split along racial lines, but I think that also relates to character. My observation is that Black Democrats are more practical and mentally tough than their White counterparts. These are strengths Black people acquire growing up in a White-dominated society, and they are reinforced by knowledge passed down across generations.
O. Felix Culpa
@Geminid:
QFT. I agree with the rest of your comment too.
Eolirin
@Geminid: NC going blue is going to be pretty necessary to fixing our senate problems too, so I really hope so. (Even though it won’t help with that this cycle)
wjca
Wrong. (Raises hand) The first time I recall even seeing the name would be today and right here.
wjca
My caveat would be that, while partisan identification may lock in early, that lock can be broken. And if it is, they will tend to lock in on the new side, much like they did before.
So, what will break the lock? An issue (usually, but not necessarily, a single issue) that they care deeply about, where their initial party is on the other side. I think that Dobbs is such an issue. And Project 2025 may be another.
Which leads me to suspect that a blowout election may be more possible than you think. See the kind of numbers the abortion access initiative got in Kansas. That time there weren’t enough great Democratic candidates on the same ballot to lock them in. But this time places which have their own abortion issue on the ballot, like Nevada or even Florida, may surprise a lot of people.
Geminid
@Eolirin: North Carolina’s Senate seats come up in 2026 and 2028. Governor Cooper will be available for 2026, if he wants to run.
North Carolina Democrats have another strong Senate prospect in Rep. Jeff Jackson. Jackson is from the Charlotte area and is running for Attorney General this year. He is an Army veteran, and was described by at least one Jackal as a “Thirst Trap.”
This was a view of Jackson I had not taken before, but it seems possible and could be an asset!