Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

We will not go back.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Republicans in disarray!

So fucking stupid, and still doing a tremendous amount of damage.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

This fight is for everything.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

T R E 4 5 O N

If America since Jan 2025 hasn’t broken your heart, you haven’t loved her enough.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 867: the NATO Summit in the Wake of Russia’s Genocidal Attack

War for Ukraine Day 867: the NATO Summit in the Wake of Russia’s Genocidal Attack

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. There is a white cross in a broken window frame. In front of it is a hispital bed with an IV stand falling across it. Wires from a broken monitor on the right are strewn on the floor with a yellow basketball on the right and teddy bear on the left. In the foreground are fragments of a Russian cruise missile, which are red, and have the "Z" war symbol. In the top of the painting in grey is written "Children's Hospital." Below that in red "Is Just Another Target for Russia" is written.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing very well after her chemo treatment yesterday. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, my Internet is still down. Or, rather, it appears that my router was fried. The new one will be here tomorrow, but as I’m working off of my phone as a hotspot again, all I’m going to cover tonight is the updated casualty figures from last night, President Zelesnkyy’s address today, and some analysis regarding the strategic challenge that now faces NATO as a result of yesterday’s genocidal Russian strikes.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has reported that the wreckage of a Kh-101 missile was found at the site of a russian missile strike on the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital. According to the SBU, this was a deliberate attack, as evidenced by the analysis of the missile’s trajectory data, the nature of the damage, and numerous video and photo materials.

The rescue operation after yesterday’s Russian missile attack continues.

As of now, 38 people have been reported dead, including four children. My condolences to all the families and friends affected by this tragedy.

190 people were injured and are receiving assistance. There are 64 people hospitalized in Kyiv, 28 in Kryvyi Rih, and 6 in Dnipro.

All patients from Okhmatdyt have been transferred to other medical institutions.

In some areas where the missiles hit, rescue operations continued throughout the night, involving almost 400 rescuers. I am grateful to everyone who is rescuing and caring for our people, to everyone involved, and to everyone who is helping.

We continue our work to increase the protection of our cities and communities from Russian terror. There will be decisions. The world has the necessary strength for this.

I also thank all the leaders who supported us and are preparing new joint steps to protect lives from Russian terror.

Kryvyi Rih is mourning the ten people killed in a russian missile strike on the city yesterday. A local Telegram channel posted pictures of the four deceased, and I believe the world should see these eyes that russia has closed forever.

🕯️Oksana Dovbnia-Ostapenko
🕯️Vadym Timokhin
🕯️Dmytro Pakholiuk
🕯️Nina Kareltseva

📷svoiKR/TG

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Are Pushing for More Air Defense and F-16 Aircraft for Ukraine, Additional Security Commitments and Decisive Actions by America and Europe – Address by the President

9 July 2024 – 18:57

Dear Ukrainians!

Now, in Washington.

The NATO Summit starts today.

We are pushing for more air defense systems for Ukraine. I am confident it will happen. We are pushing for more aircraft. F-16s. We are pushing to get them. We are pushing for additional security commitments for Ukraine, which means weapons and finances, political support. We are pushing for the necessary decisive actions by America and Europe, something that will strengthen our warriors.

We are doing and will always do everything to make Russian terror lose. And not only does our country need it, but everyone needs it, literally every partner, all nations.

We will restore Okhmatdyt. I am in touch with the Cabinet of Ministers, and the first decision has been made – UAH 100 million to support Okhmatdyt. Another 300 million will follow.

There will be other decisions for Kyiv, for the cities of the Dnipro and Donetsk regions, and we will support them all.

We will help all the children, all the families – all those affected.

I also thank all our people who have supported Okhmatdyt, who are collecting funds at United-24, who are helping: companies, volunteers, everyone who has united now.

This is our unity, Ukrainian unity, and it is so essential.

I thank the leaders, the countries – everyone who yesterday and today has condemned Russian terror. We appreciate your support, friends! We are on the phone – we are working with our partners now to make sure that no one is silent. That everyone condemns. And we really want everyone to act. So that the decisions that will restore security are made. Including decisions here in Washington, here at the NATO Summit.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s the full text of Ponomarenko’s first tweet:

This is simply incredible.

I think it’s the first war in human history in which the powerful aggressor is deliberately put at an advantage and given a safe haven for its relentless bombing campaigns while the defending side is directly prevented from hitting the enemy’s key military facilities used for that.

They know this makes zero sense and is profoundly absurd.

And yes, Putin and his generals are once again just rolling on the floor laughing from that and are sending their very best regards to the WH.

And the second one:

I mean, we’re talking about basic practical things here.

You guys allocate resources worth tens of billions of dollars in weapons and hardware to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion (and kudos to you, it’s a wise win-win decision for you and us) — and at the same time, you stultify a significant part of your effort and investment by directly preventing Ukraine from doing things that are necessary for winning this war, or at least for effectively making Russia stop and seek stable peace.

And this drags on, and on, and on, and on, and on.

Stop listening to escalation managers playing 5D Kissinger chess in front of the KGB mafia — their concepts have gone bankrupt several times over in this war.

From Bellingcat:

An analysis of open source evidence, as well as missile experts, have pointed to a Russian launched Kh-101 cruise missile being the weapon that struck a children’s hospital in Kyiv, debunking claims from pro-Russian accounts and actors that denied responsibility and sought to shift the blame for the incident on to Ukraine.

The July 8 attack on the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital killed at least three children and injured 16 others, according to the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU). However, the full toll of dead and injured remains unknown with individuals reported to still be trapped under rubble.

In the aftermath of the strike, several social media accounts known for spreading disinformation — including that of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs — began to claim that the missile was American-made and that it had been launched from a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile system.

Yet an analysis conducted by Bellingcat using social media footage as well as  a 3D model of the missile, all point to the munition being a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile. The analysis is in line with the view of experts, including Fabian Hoffman, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo who specialises in missile technology.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear weapons and missile expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California, similarly concluded in an email to Bellingcat that a Kh-101 missile could be seen in footage of the attack posted to social media sites.

Bellingcat also tested an alternative theory floated online that the missile was a US-made AIM-120, but found no evidence for this.

The hospital attack came as part of a wider Russian missile barrage that hit civilian targets elsewhere in Ukraine, including the city of Dnipro. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the attack began at approximately 10:00 AM local time and involved at least 36 missiles, including 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles.

More at the link.

The Russians, of course, responded the way you’d expect.

Citizen Nebenzia, you are not a legitimate president of the Security Council, and I will never address you as one. You are sitting on the seat that Russia invaded illegally, and the only proper seat for you before you end up in hell bypassing purgatory is in the dock.

And as for the Rule 37 of the Rules of Procedure that allows my invitation, there’s not a single word about the presidency, let alone about the invaders of the seats in this Chamber. 👇

“Rule 37
Any Member of the United Nations which is not a member of the Security Council may be invited, as the result of a decision of the Security Council, to participate, without vote, in the discussion of any question brought before the Security Council when the Security Council considers that the interests of that Member are specially affected, or when a Member brings a matter to the attention of the Security Council in accordance with Article 35 (1) of the Charter.” Any one sees the word “presidency”? At least once?

You want to refer to “established practice”, that is not even mentioned in Rule 37? Then, guess what!

I will never take lectures from an accomplice to war criminals whose boss openly reject rules aka practices while pretending to be a UN Charter “defender”. It’s impossible to stomach malarkey from Lavrov like this one, direct quote: “certain UN members to replace international law and the UN Charter with some “rules-based international order.” These mysterious “rules” have never been the subject of transparent international consultations, nor have they been laid out for everybody’s attention.”

So much about the rules, and procedures by the invader of a UN permanent seat, and never the “president”! Surely a prisoner one day!

As I wrote last night, the bilateral security agreement that Ukraine and Poland signed is much, much stronger than any of the other bilateral security agreements that Ukraine has entered into.

Which has ledt to some speculation in regard to yesterday’s genocidal Russian attack:

Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:

TL;DR – no.
The issue has been clarified by the 🇵🇱 Polish PM. His lengthy explanation makes it clear – 🇵🇱 wants to do it, but makes it conditional on full NATO’s backing and solidarity. And from Tusk’s words it is rather painfully obvious – it has not got it yet. What he said, essentially, is that Poland will keep on pressuring the allies, full court, together with Ukraine. But that’s about the extent of his declaration today. So – no, the issue hasn’t been finalized. https://x.com/michaeldweiss//michaeldweiss/status/1810300483279438051

While Poland has clearly had enough, NATO itself is still going with baby steps and milquetoast obtuse statements that can mean anything or nothing:

Trying to straddle the fence, to both claim that NATO is fully supporting Ukraine, while providing that full support in a piecemeal fashion, has gotten Ukraine where it is right now. Ukraine is not losing, but it cannot win. You heard Kirby’s evasive non-answer in the clip above. Russia committed another in a long line of genocidal war crimes yesterday, spent all day yesterday after they did so, as well as today denying it and then blaming it on Ukraine, the US, or both Ukraine and the US.

In the wake of yesterday’s attack and in light of Poland’s position, the US and its NATO allies and partners now face a test. Are they mush or are they steel. What Poland is proposing is what the US organized and led in the Middle East back in April. In April, the US organized a regional coalition that brought down almost all of Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strike against Israel through a coordinated multi-state air defense operation. Not a single one of those air defense launches, from land or air, targeted anything in Iran. All that was targeted were the airborne missiles and drones. Many in the air space of the states participating in the air defense coalition.

What Donald Tusk is calling for is something similar because the Russian cruise missiles often cross into or through Polish air space prior to getting on target in Ukraine. Tusk is proposing that NATO aerial air defense assets take down these Russian missiles over Ukraine because you just can’t know which ones will cross out of Ukrainian air space and into Polish air space or the space of any other of Ukraine’s NATO neighbors. Tusk is not suggesting that NATO aviation target anything in Russia, nor any Russian military assets on the ground in Ukraine. Rather, he’s proposing creating an air defense dome over Ukraine because when Russia launches these massed cruise missile attacks against Ukraine from within Russian airspace, the cruise missiles don’t stay in either Russian or Ukrainian air space.

The US and its NATO allies and partners have to decide if they will meet the Polish challenge. A challenge that calls for them to rise to the occasion and meet the moment to protect NATO members’ airspace by protecting Ukraine’s airspace.

If Ukraine is not going to be given a path to NATO membership, which is the reality of this week’s summit. And if Ukraine is not going to be given permission to use their American supplied weapons to strike far enough into Russia to deter genocidal bombardments like yesterday’s, as well as be supplied with what they ask for when they ask for it because the Biden administration in the US and the Scholz administration in Germany have both given Putin a veto, which functionally makes them strange bedfellows with Orban who is simply Putin’s lackey, then the only way to effectively clear Ukraine’s skies is the plan being put forward by Donald Tusk.

The US and its NATO allies and partners have reached the point where they can either give Ukraine what it needs, in both material and permissions, to fight more effectively or it can protect Ukraine by protecting themselves. All the half measures are producing are dead Ukrainians, including Ukrainian children with cancer, their family members, and their medical care givers.

Mush or steel, NATO has to chose which one it will be.

Here’s something a bit more pleasant from Kharkiv:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

31Comments

  1. 1.

    Adam L Silverman

    I’m going to head offline. Everyone is, of course, very welcome. I’ll catch everyone tomorrow once the new router arrives and I get it hooked up.

  3. 3.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I can certainly understand why people might fear Donald Tusk’s proposal is dangerously escalatory. I would agree, especially as the lower risk alternative is to simply significantly ramp up materiel & training aid to Ukraine, allow Ukraine to use its Western supplied weapons further afield into Russia, and allow both Ukrainian intelligence and Russian resistance to execute sabotage missions against militarily relevant sites across all of Russia.

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Russian disinformation has gotten so incompetent that a significant number of Chinese netizens are deriding the transparently dishonest talking points and transparently fabricated “evidence” furnished by Russia for the strike against the children’s hospital. Normally, the majority would be at least open to Russian narratives, if not outright supportive. Now, the comment section of every post pro- or anti-Russia quickly devolves into shouting matches. It is also difficult to tell how many of the comments are posted by bots or paid trolls.

    It’s a little disconcerting to read commenters accusing each other of being paid shills, alternatively for the CPC regime (obliquely), Russia, the CIA, & Taiwan.

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @lashonharangue: I’ve suspected that has been the alliance management strategy behind some of the riskier proposals by CEE & Baltic states. Their urgency is made greater by the real prospect of Trump returning to the WH.

  7. 7.

    Another Scott

    Good luck with your router, Adam. Lightning struck the gas light outside my dad’s house once – broke the TV, popped some molding trim off a door frame, and set the icemaker on fire…

    :-/

    WhiteHouse.gov – Jake Sullivan at NATO defense industry forum today:

    […]

    I also want to thank the entire team here at the Chamber of Commerce for bringing us together today, because this is a really significant event. It’s not just a gathering of people, it’s actually a productive working session — producing deals, helping enhance the defense and deferrence [deterrence] capability of the Alliance; marrying up government, the private sector, industry, military in service of our common defense.

    […]

    Maybe Sullivan has Parkinson’s too?? //

    […]

    We’ll have more information to share on all of these steps in the coming days.

    But together, they make clear: Putin cannot divide us. He cannot outlast us. He cannot weaken us. And Ukraine, not Russia, will prevail in this war.

    […]

    I’ve noticed that Biden has used the word “prevail” as well.

    verb

    prove more powerful than opposing forces; be victorious.

    “it is hard for logic to prevail over emotion”

    Similar:

    win win out win through triumph be victorious be the victor …

    I think it’s more than just words, but time will tell.

    Thanks Adam, and everyone.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: At this point, the Biden Administration (& any other player in the US or around the world) should be judged mainly by its actions & not words, whether wrt Ukraine, Israel/Palestine, PRC/Taiwan, or trade. Its actions have been mixed/incoherent at best (Ukraine & PRC/Taiwan), or downright counterproductive (Israel/Palestine & trade).

  10. 10.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Pretty anodyne output from the Modi-Putin Summit in Moscow:
    Joint Statement following the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit
    Reinforces the impression that the current Indian government is working to manage the steady decline of its relationship w/ Russia, as Russia is increasingly beholden to the PRC. However, India will continue act in its self-interest & load up on the Russian oil at steep discounts (& turning around & selling at least some of it to the EU at big mark ups).

    The Xi-Putin Summit in Beijing did not produce any concrete deliverables, either, so outside of NK I don’t think Putin is getting anything meaningfully new.

  12. 12.

    matt

    Musk tanking his business by being a crazy fascist has been a fascinating turn of events.

  14. 14.

    Another Scott

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I’m not so sure.

    I’m reminded of the Russo-Japanese War:

    Although Russia suffered a number of defeats, Emperor Nicholas II remained convinced that Russia could still win if it fought on; he chose to remain engaged in the war and await the outcomes of key naval battles. As hope of victory dissipated, he continued the war to preserve the dignity of Russia by averting a “humiliating peace”. Russia ignored Japan’s willingness early on to agree to an armistice and rejected the idea of bringing the dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague. After the decisive naval battle of Tsushima, the war was concluded with the Treaty of Portsmouth (5 September [O.S. 23 August] 1905), mediated by US President Theodore Roosevelt. The complete victory of the Japanese military surprised international observers and transformed the balance of power in both East Asia and Europe, resulting in Japan’s emergence as a great power and a decline in the Russian Empire’s prestige and influence in Europe. Russia’s incurrence of substantial casualties and losses for a cause that resulted in humiliating defeat contributed to growing domestic unrest, which culminated in the 1905 Russian Revolution, and severely damaged the prestige of the Russian autocracy.

    Not an exact parallel, of course. Nothing ever is. And not much of a rhyme, either. Still, …

    Here’s hoping VVP gets out of Ukraine sooner rather than later. Similarly with Georgia and Moldova and …

    Peace and comfort to the innocents.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: Very different situations. W/ the loss of the Baltic Fleet at the Battle of Tsushima Strait, the Russian Empire no longer had a navy to try to interdict Japanese logistics supporting the battlefield on Liaodong Peninsula or lift the IJN blockade of Port Arthur. The Russian Army was at a severe disadvantage logistically, since the Liaodong Peninsula was at the far end of a long supply route spanning all of the Russian Empire & all of Manchuria, while the battlefield was next to the Korean Peninsula, then already a vassal of Imperial Japan. Ukraine is next to Russia, sharing lengthy land & sea borders.

    Putin can salvage a “win” (that he could claim domestically) by simply holding on to his current gains against Ukrainian offensives, staying largely on the defensive. The only way the Russian Empire could win the Russo-Japanese War was by lifting the siege of Port Arthur, which meant going on the offensive against Imperial Japan in the Yellow Sea & on land in Lower Manchuria. Otherwise, the city would fall sooner or later, & Imperial Japan victorious.

    Finally, the Russo-Japanese War was fought over colonial possession in Chinese territory, whereas Putin & the other Russian revanchists see Ukraine as “Little Russia” that has to be absorbed to make Russia “great again”.

    Had the Russo-Japanese War been waged over control of Vladivostok or even Harbin (in Upper Manchuria), the Russian decision making might have been quite different.

  20. 20.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: I can certainly understand why people might fear Donald Tusk’s proposal is dangerously escalatory. I would agree

    Hard to agree with that.

    Poland has repeatedly seen Russian missiles flying over their territory.  Putting themselves in a position to stop those missiles before they get to Polish airspace (i.e. over Ukraine) is hardly a major escalation.  Barely even a minor one.

    As for the defense treaty?  At most it puts on paper what is already happening on the ground.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: Poland is certainly within its rights to shoot down any Russian missiles that crosses into its territory, or will imminently cross into its territory.

  22. 22.

    Gin & Tonic

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​
    Thank you very much for this summary of a war about which I know almost nothing. These threads have always been valuable, now they’re the only ones on this site that remain required reading.

  24. 24.

    Gin & Tonic

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​
    Purely by chance, I happened to be in Lviv on April 10, 2010, when the plane carrying the top echelon of Polish government went down in Smolensk. I can assure you that it was nearly unanimous among both Poles and Ukrainians that russia was directly responsible. This is not an event to be quickly forgotten.

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: Certainly understandable why people might think that way, & Putins actions since shines new light on possibilities of foul play then, but I am not sure we know one way or the other. The Polish government chose not to accuse Putin of assassination the in immediate aftermath or in the years since, & Polish government investigation faulted trading of the Polish Air Force unit (since disbanded) that flew the plane.

    This reminds me of the US bombing of the PRC embassy in Belgrade in ’99. Nobody I’ve met in China think it was a mistake, & there are parts of the US explanation that beggars believe (outdated maps, serious?, but perhaps not so strange given some of the incredibly dumb things that happen regularly in warfare), but I don’t think we will ever know one way or the other, & people will not be shaken from their strongly held beliefs.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Serious, Bibi & company are setting Israel on a course toward ruination:

    Barak Ravid
    @BarakRavid

    Scoop: During a phone call last week, French President Emmanuel Macron protested to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about interference by ministers in the Israeli government in the French parliamentary elections, according to two sources familiar with the details of the conversation

    In the weeks leading to the EU parliament elections and the French parliamentary elections, Israel’s Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli from Netanyahu’s Likud party expressed public support for Marine Le Pen’s far-right party

    Macron’s complaint during the conversation with Netanyahu, which was hasn’t been made public until now, shows that the French government was aware of Chikli’s comments and that they it tensions between the countries

    Chikli, who also serves as the minister responsible for combating anti-Semitism, has been maintaining ties with far-right parties in Europe, many of which, like Le Pen’s party, have an anti-Semitic past or present

    In late May, a few days before the European Parliament elections, Chikli attended a conference of far-right parties in Europe and took a picture with Marine Le Pen. He then posted a tweet praising Le Pen and criticizing Macron

    On July 1, a few days before the French parliamentary elections, Chikli said on Israeli radio that he believes that if Le Pen becomes president of France “it will be good for Israel.” He added that Prime Minister Netanyahu thinks like him

    Behind the Scenes: A day after Chikli’s interview, French president Macron called Netanyahu. The call focused on the war in Gaza and tensions in Lebanon, but the French president also brought up Chikli’s comments

    Two sources familiar with the details of the conversation said that Macron complained to Netanyahu about interference by Israeli government officials in the French parliamentary elections and emphasized that “this is unacceptable”

    Netanyahu told Macron that he instructed all government ministers not to speak publicly about the French parliamentary elections, the sources said

    Despite Netanyahu’s promise to Macron, Chikli continued in recent days to speak publicly on the subject and praise Le pen

    The Prime Minister’s Office and the French Embassy in Israel declined to comment on the matter

    Macron has been quite vocal in supporting Israel since 10/7, to the point of smearing all criticism (including from prominent French Jewish scholars) of Israeli conduct in Gaza as anti-semitism. Le Pen’s RN, of course, was cofounded by a former member of the French volunteer unit in the Waffen SS.

  30. 30.

    daveNYC

    @Another Scott: Except right now it’s literally just words.  Plus a second Trump term being effectively an ‘I Win’ button for Putin.  And I guess throw in whatever is happening in Germany that keeps them from really committing.

  31. 31.

    Another Scott

    @YY_Sima Qian: Indeed, very different.  Still, there are echoes – at least in my head. ;-)

    A colorful, and maybe accurate (or maybe not?) piece at Governing.com on TR and the negotiations to end the war.

    Ultimately, people – through their actions and inactions – decide the course of history. No matter the parallels to earlier times, how things turn out depend on the people at the time. Everyone knows that VVP could end this war today. Others need to encourage him to make that decision, by various means, but ultimately it’s his to make.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

Comments are closed.