This is worth a watch:
There is absolutely no evidence that will convince those “Biden must step down” folks and I just don’t see any point in trying. But there is plenty of evidence that this MSM nonsense is not having the impact they thought it would have – polls remain mostly unaffected, but that could change if we don’t shift the messaging ASAP. And it’s July people…if inflation continues to dip and the predicted reduction in interest happens in Sept…those polls could change dramatically.
This interview with Ron Klain is pretty straightforward and doesn’t sugarcoat things:
Greg Sargent: So in the current FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Trump leads Biden by 2.2 points nationally, 3.4 points in Pennsylvania, 1.6 points in Wisconsin, and 0.7 points in Michigan. To win, Biden has to take those three Rust Belt states plus Nebraska’s second district at a minimum. And in those averages, Biden trails by a lot more in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, up to five points in them. I just want to know, Ron, do you contest that general depiction of the current state of the race? Do you think those numbers are in the ballpark of where things actually stand right now, or not?
Ron Klain: I think they’re in the ballpark, Greg. I think actually the president’s doing a little better than that. I’ve seen other polls that have him leading in some of those battleground states or tied in some of those battleground states. It depends if you do the two-way or the three-way and what your likely voter screen looks like. But look, I’ve said all along, it’s a very close race. And I’m not saying Joe Biden has it in the bag, but I do believe firmly that he is the best Democratic candidate and is the person most likely to beat Trump, having beaten Trump previously.
I think, if we are serious here, we need to stop trying to pushback on the “Biden has to go” bullshit (not happening, and here’s Klain’s take on that):
Ron Klain: Greg, I think that he has to continue to do what he’s doing and do more of it. I think people need to hear his vision for a second term. They need to see that he’s still fighting for them. I think he needs to kind of move forward on some key issues like bringing down costs and continuing to fight kind of the—as he mentioned in the debate—the question of the lingering impacts of the pandemic and corporate greed, continuing to fight those issues and continuing to have a strong progressive economic message, which I think is one thing that unites a lot of those groups you’ve been talking about. Maybe not so much the Trump-disaffected Lincoln Project type people, but for a lot of the other voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan, that economic populism that was successful in the 2020 campaign, I think needs to be brought back with more vigor.
I’ve been talking about that all year long. And look, I think that he is uniquely positioned to do that. And when I hear people talk about him getting out, I mean, the only precedent for that is 1968. And I’ll remind people how 1968 ended. It did not end with the Democrats’ substitute candidate holding on to the White House. It ended with Richard Nixon being our president. So I don’t see why 1968 is anyone’s role model for how the presidential campaign should go.
And instead, pivot all discussions to how unfit Trump is and how dangerous his Project 2025 cabinet would be. Anything else feels like political misconduct.
Looks like the NYT, which may or may not be bleeding subscribers, are trying to pivot.
LOL. Read: “We are bleeding subscribers for asking Biden to drop out so let’s ask Trump to drop out and see if we can get them back.”
Nope @nytimes. WAY too late. You’ll never get a dime from me for news ever again. https://t.co/CpmDCsKulQ
— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) July 11, 2024
“HE IS DANGEROUS,” the Times declares in all caps. “IN WORD, DEED AND ACTION.”
Whatever you traitorous rag.
I wrote a bit about my experience this week in deep red land if you’re interested.
We have work to do.
Open thread, try to play nice (I know, I know, but I had to try)
different-church-lady
Tired: Trying to get the Dem to drop out.
Wired: Trying to get both candidates to drop out.
TaMara
And I want to be super snarky and say that more people probably showed up to see Biden than saw Clooney’s last film. But that would be mean.
I have to give up my hotspot for a while and run errands with my dad.
cain
yes the FTFNYT has one such article but 194 anti Biden columns. Fuck these people.
Old Man Shadow
It took nearly forty years of Reaganomics to get us here. It’s going to take time to dismantle it and get us back.
Things are looking up. There are still problems. But they require Congress and State and local leaders acting too and frankly, they require a Supreme Court who will let the Congress and state and local leaders and the President to do their damned jobs.
Biden is doing what he can do. We need to do the same.
Elizabelle
Thank you TaMara. Will check this out.
When is Biden’s NATO press conference today?
Steeplejack
@TaMara:
Ari Melber was also great last night on MSNBC. He was back in the big chair after being off for a while. He laid out a calm, realistic analysis of the situation as it currently appears and then broke it down, hammering on Trump and Project 2025, the Rethuglicans’ overreach and the craziness of Dems going into “all is lost!” mode. Highly recommended as a picker-upper. (Buck-U-Uppo, for Wodehouse readers.)
Jackie
I saw the NYT opinion headline and thought the same. Then someone from the editorial board tried to say that op-ed had been in the works “for MONTHS!” Yea, right.
And their “Joe must go” op-ed’s were written years ago? I call BS.😡
Mike in Pasadena
According to CBS News on the radio this morning, more D representatives and senators will stab Biden in the back today and Friday. An open convention free for all that ignores the millions of us who voted in the primaries will result in a candidate we all support singing Kumbaya together. Fuzzy headed thinking. I need a new party.
schrodingers_cat
I rewatching ER on Hulu and for the life of me I can’t understand how that made George Clooney a star? Dr Ross is one of the most annoying characters in the initial seasons. Total hot mess with questionable ethics.
schrodingers_cat
@Mike in Pasadena: That’s how I feel.
Jackie
@Elizabelle:
At the moment 6:30 ET. It’s already been pushed back once, so??? 🤷🏼♀️ Press conferences rarely start at scheduled times at any rate.
MazeDancer
If the NY Times does a 5-part, banner headline expose on the Epstein files, then, I might consider re-subscribing to Cooking.
p.a.
Shorter FTFNYT: oh shit, actions have consequences. That’s only supposed to work on the hoi polloi.
ArchTeryx
All this mess reminds me of Will Rogers’ famous quote, “I belong to no organized political party. I’m a Democrat.” Democrats in Disarray is an evergreen narrative for the media, and they are forever looking for the slightest chink in our armor to wedge us apart, right along with the Republicans.
And we provided them not just a chink, but an entire missing breastplate. Sometimes, it feels to me like standing athwart the famous stampede from The Lion King and yelling “STOP!”
The Silly Season of an election year doesn’t feel so silly any more. It feels like a round in the Thunderdome.
Villago Delenda Est
The polls are more and more nothing but bullshit clickbait of desperate media outfits who need “impressions”. Also, fuck Nate Silver from here to Yankee Stadium.
BeautifulPlumage
Interestingly, the editorial has been given the fancy, interactive treatment with graphics & links. They’ve done this with news stories in the past but have they ever gussied up their editorials before*?
*not a subscriber or reader so I really don’t know
different-church-lady
There’s only one advantage we have over 2016: a whole lot of people are in a “won’t get fooled again” frame of mind.
Sister Golden Bear
If only there were a cohort of people whose job it was to cover Biden’s speeches and events and let the public know what he was talking about…
TBone
AOC bringing it! Huzzah!
https://x.com/RepAOC/status/1811251753435754564
Impeach! Preach!
(Video of Floor speech at link)
💜💪🔥
TBone
@Steeplejack: agreed
different-church-lady
@Sister Golden Bear:
There is, but nobody reads this blog.
Cacti
I hear that concerns about Biden’s age are going to blow over any day now.
The smart people at BJ have said so and they’re never wrong. 😒
different-church-lady
@Cacti: Dude, they’re never blowing over.
Now choose if you’re going to help or hurt.
Cacti
@different-church-lady: What does help mean, exactly?
Pretend my eyes didn’t see what they saw and my ears didn’t hear what they heard?
Chris
Is there a sign that they are bleeding subscribers? Like to a degree they’d actually notice? That’s wonderful if so.
Chip Daniels
I canceled my NYT subscription and in the comments explained to them that it was due to their relentless habit of neutralizing Trumps words, softening the language and using euphemisms to conceal his insanity and malevolence.
ArchTeryx
@different-church-lady: I know where I stand. Solidly with Biden. I’d be suicidally stupid to do anything else. Too many white liberals would rather throw rotten fruit from the peanut gallery at Biden than realize they’ll be first against the wall when Project 2025 comes. People are really, really stupid when it comes to history, even the supposedly politically astute Very Online Left,
TaMara
@Sister Golden Bear: I keep wondering if maybe they are waiting so it doesn’t get lost in summer, when they think no one is paying attention. If that’s the strategy, they need to change their thinking and hammer this shit home for the next four months, 24/7 to break through the noise.
@Cacti: This fool again. Pie is good people
Belafon
@Cacti: “A tornado came through.”
“Yeah, we know. There are people injured.”
“Yeah, but a tornado came through.”
“What are you going to do?”
“But a tornado came through.”
Redshift
Josh Marshall had an interesting factoid he got from an unnamed non-pundit Dem campaign professional — they weren’t seeing any effect from the debate among less-engaged voters, because they’ve been seeing “Biden is senile” stuff on social media for months, so the debate was a “so what?” rather than a shock.
ArchTeryx
@Sister Golden Bear: If the media won’t do their job, then it’s up to us to do it for them. Same as it always was.
That, and consult with my LBGTQ+ friends and make contingency plans no matter what the election outcome.
Elizabelle
@Jackie: Thank you.
Redshift
@Redshift: To follow up, it would be hilarious if the punditry’s relentless “Biden is old!” through the spring inoculated voters against caring about Biden being old, at least on a practical voting level.
TBone
@Belafon: 🎯
ArchTeryx
@Belafon: There are two kinds of storm chasers.
There are the ones that whoop and holler and yell and throw confetti when they get a tornado on camera, even as it’s busy destroying a town behind them.
Then there are those that come across tornado-damaged homes, drop their chases immediately, and begin search and rescue operations. There’s even an Aussie I know that’s a ham radio operator, and spends his chases plugged into the local ham network to track the exact position of the tornadoes, any damage they have done, and he’s a trained first responder who will immediately begin S&R operations AND direct local authorities when he comes across destroyed homes.
I’m the latter. You don’t whoop and celebrate at people being injured, killed, and their lives torn apart. You f’n help them. It’s no different in politics.
Elizabelle
@BeautifulPlumage: The FTFNYT may want a more electable GOP candidate.
Elizabelle
@Redshift: Another thing: for those who have unsubscribed: write to Jen Rubin of the WaPost. To Paul Krugman of the NY Times. Tell them why. Tell them you enjoyed their work, but can no longer support their management or editorial direction.
it is interesting to me that I don’t know that we’re seeing any stories about subscriber drop off. I am sure both major publications are seeing it, but neither may want to acknowledge it.
Belafon
@ArchTeryx: I’m a member of the local CERT because I’m primarily wired to want to fix problems.
And right now, Biden and his age aren’t the actual problem.
ALurkSupreme
Just wanted to say that I’ve appreciated the rational voices at Balloon Juice since the “debate.”
Spent a few days back in liberal Madison over the holiday weekend. (Landed almost at the same time Biden did for his appearance at the school.) All my liberal friends there have lost their goddamned minds.
ArchTeryx
@Belafon: GOOD FOR YOU. That’s called civic pride. If a disaster hits you don’t just sit there and sit slack-jawked at it for hours. You dig in and help. Some disasters – even tornadoes – are vastly bigger than a few volunteers can handle, but one can at least get the ball rolling in the right direction.
The tornado hasn’t come through yet. But the skies are darkening. Time to get the radio fired up and get the word out.
Captain C
@p.a.: As I wrote in the thread below: “Please resubscribe with us! We’re getting killed with the advertisers and the MAGAts are not filling the gap!”
Villago Delenda Est
@ArchTeryx: They’re doing their job. Generating impressions, ratings. Whether or not that has anything to do with reporting factual news is what is in question here.
Sister Golden Bear
@TaMara:
Biden and team have been talking about accomplishments. The political
courtiersmedia hasn’t bothered to do news stories about this.@ArchTeryx:
Yep.
FWIW on the Book of Face, I’m hearing from friends that they’re getting time outs for posting “too much” about Project 2025. Thumbs, scales. I’ve definitely seen extremely low engagement for my political posts there — far less than I’d expect. So just gotta figure out other ways to spread the word to my normie acquaintances.
Captain C
@Cacti:
Maybe stop acting like everything is all about you.
Sister Golden Bear
@ArchTeryx:
Especially our Very Online Left.
wjca
Perhaps you might spend a little time talking about what you saw and heard during the debate when Trump was on. No pretending required.
Just a thought.
CaseyL
@ALurkSupreme:
2016 PTSD is a pretty good explanation for the headless chicken impression a lot of Democratic voters are doing. I’ve dreaded election days ever since. Hell, I’ve dreaded election seasons ever since.
But that’s not really an excuse. The part I don’t understand is why they never stop, take a deep breath, see the damage they’re doing… and, y’know, STOP.
So at that point, I can only conclude they’re behaving from sheer stupidity or extreme bad faith. Neither will get me to take them at all seriously, except as saboteurs.
Lacuna Synecdoche
different-church-lady:
But … but… but it’s an almost top ten-thousand blog!
prostratedragon
Testing a way to share graphs from FRED data site: Labor Force Participation Rates, All and Black Workers, 1/1/1975 to 5/31/2024, Quarterly
YES!!
ALurkSupreme
@CaseyL: Yup, 2016 PTSD. How they don’t understand that things have changed since then is beyond me. Plus, how they don’t understand that NPR and the NYT are just not reliable narrators is also beyond me.
MazeDancer
Little preview of, now, 6:30 press conference.
Mr. Biden can barely keep a straight face.
No shame. The WHPC has no shame.
cain
@Elizabelle: Cuz if they did it would be all about them and probably drive more unsubscribers.
But I think the majority of us have gotten sick of this whole thing and unsubscribing is the action plan we should all do as a group. We’ve been talking about these guys since the GW Bush days. Yet people were still clinging to their subscriptions.
I think they’ve finally over did it. Because this is absolutely election interference by the media by trying to influence a particular outcome that was democratically decided. I think people are finally understanding that. Just from the numbers especially when you see how much Trump spews and what an obvious danger he is.
In the past 4 years, I think we’ve seen a few media outlets purchased by billionaires. They have been waiting for this moment.
Eolirin
@prostratedragon: That in and of itself may explain some of the intensity of the attacks on President Biden.
E
Anybody, like Cacti or our unreal bots like Al Remnick who thinks or pretends Biden’s age is going to disappear as an issue if he drops out is not thinking about the ocean of questions about “When did you first know he was too addled to feed himself and why did you wait until now to tell us” which can only be countered with answers that make us look weak. We are in an abusive relationship with the GOP and engagement with them is not the solution.
cain
@CaseyL: the only way to stop them is to take away their political power by not subscribing. They are still a business. How funny that for most of these media folks the primary consumers of their nonsense is left leaning people with some centrists. It’s not right leaning people. They got their own cult universe that they subscribed to.
Sister Golden Bear
@CaseyL:
Spot on. I mean I get it. Back in 2020, when candidates were dropping like flies and before Biden’s campaign took off, in a moment of weakness I was willing to support fucking Bloomberg if that’s what it took to avoid another Trump presidency because it looked like there was no other viable candidate.
But this time we do have a candidate who remains tied with Trump despite all the MSM efforts to knee-cap him (both before and after the debate.) Imagine if as much energy was being spent to talk about how Biden has been the most effective president in my life time, as well as Trump/Project 2025’s plans to destroy America…
So I’m feeling like that “Calm down—get a hold of yourself!” scene from Airplane.
artem1s
Given that Trump has been convicted of multiple felonies, is still facing multiple trials, and is in obvious mental decline why hasn’t the GOP leadership called for him to step down or at the very least revealed his choice for VP? Shouldn’t the GOP be looking at replacing him on the ballot in November?
see how easy that is?
here’s a follow up…
Since the details of the 2025 Project have been leaked to the public, when will the GOP leadership and candidate answer detailed question about which components of this plan they are in favor of? Which civil servants are targeted for firing in this plan?
prostratedragon
@Eolirin: Indeed. Disguised Tulsa attacks.
NB: I really was just testing a way to use the FRED app to share data here and elsewhere. But it is somehow germane, no?
Eolirin
@Sister Golden Bear: Tied in polling with really weird cross tab results like 20-30% of black voters breaking for Trump.
SiubhanDuinne
@MazeDancer:
JFC. And they call US “baying jackals”?
Mousebumples
@Sister Golden Bear: 100% think 2016 PTSD is behind a lot of this for non elected people.
Someone said recently (apologies for forgetting who) – I’ll panic when Black voters, Black women, the Congressional Black Caucus panic.
I have Opinions that Biden is better suited to beat Trump in Wisconsin this year. (see 2016 and 2022) I love Harris, but I want the guy on the ballot who beat Trump last time.
prostratedragon
@CaseyL: Now you’ve done it! Just had to go mentioning headless chickens …
Part 1: “Headless Chicken,” Thought Gang
Omnes Omnibus
That would be me.
Belafon
@Sister Golden Bear: What sources are they using? I would like to put more detailed information up, and maybe figure out a sweet spot in frequency so I don’t get blocked.
schrodingers_cat
@Mousebumples: Any Biden replacement even Harris is going to feel like they have been foisted on us. Like our primary votes did not count.
This disrespect the media and some Ds have shown Biden’s voters is not going to be forgotten or forgiven.
Archon
@ALurkSupreme:
The problem with liberals, especially educated white liberals is they think the issue is that average Americans are dumb and uninformed, how else could someone vote for Trump, right? For most Blacks folks the real issue, the real battle is between those that have empathy for people outside their family and their “tribe” and those that don’t, and it’s always been that way in America.
It’s scarier when you look at politics that way because you have to really face who we are as a nation but I do think it makes you more grounded and less likely to believe that optics or messaging or a bad debate performance is going to sway the average voter.
Eolirin
I’ll admit the one thing that has me really concerned is that Biden is doing substantially worse in PA than in WI in a lot of these polls. I have no idea what’s going on there.
I don’t think Harris does better. But that feels very unsettling.
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: And me.
cain
@SiubhanDuinne: they sound insane. Biden’s expression is excellent 😂
schrodingers_cat
@Eolirin: We should see the polls after the monsterfest of the RNC convention.
Mike E
@BeautifulPlumage: try printfriendly and paste the article URL into the window provided… the format is a tad wonky but reads fine
schrodingers_cat
@SiubhanDuinne: They are Republicans in reporters clothing.
cain
@Eolirin: PA has been trending purple. We have fetterman out there helping. Glad he is there.
Eolirin
@schrodingers_cat: It’s a relative thing though. I’d be vaugely unsettled by Biden having polls winning all three, but PA less than WI.
Eolirin
@cain: 2022 was a very strong cycle in PA though. It didn’t feel like a trend to purple, it felt like a trend to blue. WI was much closer in 2022 across the board.
Belafon
@prostratedragon: When I was a kid, an aunt gave us a bunch of chickens to kill and clean. We had them in the back yard, and my dad and the neighbor cut the heads off and the kids had to chase them down. We actually had one chicken, without its head, use its wings at just the right moment to go over a fence.
O. Felix Culpa
@Eolirin:
The numbers for PA aren’t ideal, but it’s July. Plenty of time for Biden to catch up and to get more accurate polling. I’d be more worried if those were the numbers in October.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Puhleeez! I am proud to be a vitriolic jackal. 😁
cain
@Eolirin:
All the more to not create turbulence and have all this drama.
Clooney and his ilk ought to know better.
rikyrah
Democrat, Environmentalist, & the establishment
@BlueSteelDC
Did anyone see Morning Joe this morning? Did you see the segment with this reporter? She said what we have been saying for two weeks. There is currently no credible plan for a Biden Replacement. The Caucus is still waiting And donors want MVP replaced
https://x.com/BlueSteelDC/status/1811395051659915430
rikyrah
The Press Conference will be ridiculous.
One one side, you will have the WHPC, asking completely idiotic questions.
On the other side, you will have the foreign press, asking questions, you know, about NATO.
ArchTeryx
@Villago Delenda Est: And making sure Republicans get elected. Their billionaire owners want that, and so everything is predicated on that goal even if it costs them clicks and views. The Epstein tapes and a lot of TCFG’s rantings are juicy news. But they enforce a total blackout on it because it might hurt his chances of being elected.
O. Felix Culpa
@cain:
I don’t know what Clooney and his ilk should or should not know. He’s an actor and producer, and should stay in his lane. Nice that he raises money for Dems, but I wouldn’t seek him out for political advice. Nor do I agree to him nullifying my vote and the votes of 14 million other Democrats.
ALurkSupreme
@Archon: Good points. In the end, all my freaked-out friends are going to vote, and they’ll vote the correct way, but it was sad to have to request that we not waste our precious time together arguing politics.
JAFD
This is ooo
a test
message (or maybe just a ‘text massage’). I scroll down to ‘Leave a comment’, get this bink rectangle with message “Failed to load plugin: wpview from url https://balloon-juice.com/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wpview/plugin.min.js”
Can’t type in ‘Visual’ tab box, can type in ‘Text’ tab, but not in ‘pink box’
Using Waterfox 6.0.17 browser (with too many open tabs ;-) )
Anyway, those coming to the Lancaster Meetup, we’ll be in the Susquehanna Room – 4th (top) floor of the Conv. Ctr, at noon Saturday. C U there !
artem1s
@Mousebumples: I love Harris,
but I want the guyI’m glad she’s on the ballot with the guy who beat Trump last time.FTFY. Harris is on the ballot too.This is not an either/or situation. Framing matters.
TBone
@MazeDancer: 😳 😆💜
Another Scott
Fritschner (or Fritschner on Twitter) lets us know that the GQP in the House still can’t do anything on the floor without Democrats votes:
1) Failed to override Biden veto.
2) Legislative appropriations bill fails.
3) Attempt to charge Garland with inherent contempt fails.
🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡
Eyes on the prizes.
Cheers,
Scott.
Richard Fox
I would vote for a stalk of celery if that was the Democratic nominee for President over Trump. At the end of the day in the voting booth, alone, with only the lever and the names of the candidates I would bet a vast number of people all over the country will feel the same way. Trump is exhausting and irritating to a degree rarely encountered. Biden is none of those. Just older. So I take all this noise of the last couple weeks and I just ignore it. Really. Probable because I’m 64 at the end of the month and I’ve seen this sort of idiocy play out in endless variations for decades. Hillary dying as she types her last email from an insecure server, tan suits and mustard and birth certificates for Obama, parasailing for Kerry, screams from Howard Dean, etc. And that’s just the last two decades. Biden’s demeanor at the debate dismayed me too, but I saw his public appearances since then and he was just fine. And as time passes I suspect events will overtake this narrative in place of other things (as nothing grows staler in a news cycle than last week.) I suggest just carry on and breathe. Best wishes, everyone.
Eolirin
Anyway, the reason why that’s concerning to me is that without NC or AZ and GA, we can’t really afford to lose PA in elections. Putting this cycle completely aside, PA going the way of Ohio would be disastrous to our long term prospects, and 2022 seemed to suggest it was heading in the opposite direction. If 2022 turns out to be a fluke that’s pretty bad, even if we eke out a win there.
We can make up for Wisconsin in a bunch of ways. PA not so much. So hopefully this is maybe just an artifact of the weirdness with the polling on black voters (and not that black voters are actually breaking for Trump in unprecedented numbers) but it’s weird and I don’t like it.
prostratedragon
@MazeDancer:
Starmer thinking, “Christ! And I thought our blokes were bad!”
Headless chickens, Part 2:
Anoniminous
@Eolirin:
LMAO.
92% of black voters don’t have a land line and thus ‘invisible’ to pollsters. Expect more of this horseshit going forward. .
@Eolirin:
Because 70% of all voters don’t have a land line and thus invisible to pollsters.
TBone
@Sister Golden Bear: 💜
schrodingers_cat
@rikyrah: The entire replace Biden thing is about Harris isn’t it.
Eolirin
@O. Felix Culpa: Again, I’d still be vaugely confused and a little freaked out if the polling had MI at +5, WI at +3 and PA at +2. Hell, I’d feel that way if the election results looked like that.
schrodingers_cat
@Anoniminous: I haven’t had a landline since 2010.
TBone
@cain: so proud of him and his recovery! Love from PA!
zhena gogolia
@MazeDancer: I think Biden looks profoundly sad. Like, this is how you treat me?
Eolirin
@Anoniminous: Polsters are doing cell polling. That doesn’t actually answer anything. And you’d expect to see similar trendlines across the three states along those lines. Again, it’s the relative differences that are confusing to me. PA shouldn’t be behind WI in supporting Democrats.
So what about PA demographics is creating a bigger gap than WI?
Geminid
I’m riding with Biden, and I’m gellin with Yellan. From Axios reporter Barak Ravid a couple hours ago:
The sanctions regime directed at violent West Bank settlers was established by President Biden’s February 1 executive order. That in turn was founded upon by a National Security Council finding that settler violence in the West Bank was a threat to the US’s national security interests.
The sanctions regime is extra-territorial, so Israeli financial institutions risk secondary sanctions for supporting the sanctioned entities. Secretary Yellen wields a very heavy hammer here.
BeautifulPlumage
@Mike E:
thank you! Where were these opinion-havers last time he ran? Assholes
artem1s
@Eolirin:
PA is polling is probably the result of Cletus Safari polling in diners next to the Ohio border. But seriously, I saw a poll that suggested Biden is polling better in Pittsburgh and other urban areas than he did in 2020. It’s possible the MAGAt wasteland in between is being given too much weight in these polls.
Caveatimperator
@MazeDancer:
Holy shit, that eyebrow at the 19 second mark! I’m watching at work and fighting laughter at that alone.
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: thanks for that, then.
Mousebumples
@schrodingers_cat: thanks to you too, then!
UncleEbeneezer
@Steeplejack: Wow. I would’ve thought Melber would be stirring-shit. Nice surprise.
Mousebumples
@artem1s: I want both. I just want the ticket to be Biden/Harris. Not whatever else. Not looking to replace Harris either.
Anoniminous
@schrodingers_cat:
Noncommercial landline havers trend old, white, Evagelical/Fundie, and rural. GOP voters IOW.
Another Scott
Clowns screaming “George Clooney!!11” (0:59) (Twitter version)
“Out the door!”
🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡
I hope normies pay attention to this from the press, and maybe reconsider letting them into their homes… :-/
[ MazeDancer got there first. ]
Cheers,
Scott.
Belafon
@schrodingers_cat: Somewhat. Some of it Harris, but the majority of it is that Democrats have been on the defense ever since the CRA/VRA, when the party lost a bunch of white voters and have therefore had to defend gains against the onslaught of Republican attacks, that they are more prone to trying to figure out how to minimize damage than go on a counteroffensive.
UncleEbeneezer
@ALurkSupreme: Sorry about your friends. Most of mine aren’t panicking or piling on (though I’m sure some worry about Biden). Hang in there and try to talk sense into the ones you think you can reach. Otherwise give them time to come round. On Election Day they will have two choices. Most of them will do the right thing in the end.
Eolirin
@artem1s: That could be. I hope so. Ohio faced some real problems because those rural areas saw support completely collapse from bad to nonexistent and Dems are getting screwed because of those margins, and I’m really hoping PA doesn’t go in a similar direction. We need them.
Geminid
@cain: Yes, and Senator Bob Casey is up for relection this year; that should help Biden. Casey very popular in the Keystone State and won reelection in 2018 by over 600,000 votes.
MinuteMan
I started seeing it after the big drop-out in the 2016 primaries that made Biden the nominee. Bogus then, bogus now.
Jackie
@MazeDancer: That’s exactly how Joe should react tonight: Just grin while the screeching media baboons screech.
prostratedragon
Headless chicken, Part 3: The chicken figures in about 2/3 through, but you don’t want miss Bug’s earlier welcome dance if you need a chuckle. “Wackiki Wabbit” (1943)
MinuteMan
And probably the best chance she has of becoming President is by being reelected VP.
prostratedragon
@Belafon: Dumb animals? Not a chance.
UncleEbeneezer
@Geminid: Been meaning to ask you (since you seem reasonable on I/P, Gaza) what people, orgs you follow on that stuff? As I mentioned in another thread, it’s so hard finding voices on either side that don’t peddle borderline AntiSemitism/Islamophobia and MAGA sentiments. So many bad actors/trolls/bots. If you don’t want to answer here (because certain commenters will predictably pounce on anything on this topic, so I’d understand not wanting to open that can of worms) you can always get my email address from WaterGirl or one of the other front-pagers.
Anoniminous
@Eolirin:
They claim they are doing cell phone polling. They have to do that to protect their bullshit jobs. The fact is young-ish cell phone users don’t pick-up if they don’t know the caller and older people hang up as soon as it is apparent it’s a pollster.
Why cellphones — and trust — may be affecting polling data
Note: that “May Be” should be “Is” — For a recent example of bullshit polling the Kansas Abortion thing polled very close but lost 56% to 44%.
MinuteMan
@MazeDancer:
It’s a wonder that he doesn’t burst out laughing; the press is pathetic.
MinuteMan
@Anoniminous: The fact is young-ish cell phone users don’t pick-up if they don’t know the caller and older people hang up as soon as it is apparent it’s a pollster.
Don’t sell us short, oldish folks also don’t pickup for unknown callers; that’s what voice mail is for.
Mike E
If you are pressed for time skip to the 12:48 mark in the LO’D video above, and also too, quit engaging with that prick, the usual trolls who derail threads and waste your time specifically (yes, the pie filter is another time saving tool but honestly you are responsible for making these posts readable and worthwhile)
Jackie
@rikyrah: Speaking of NATO, the GQP Senate Leader in name only, suggested it would be bad form for TCFG to host Viktor Orban at MAL following the Summit.
TCFG basically thumbed his nose at McTurtle.
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-mcconnell-feud-2668731064/
ALurkSupreme
@UncleEbeneezer: Thank you.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Thanks for the link to Larry O. That was indeed worth a listen
Geminid
@Eolirin: I believe we’ll win Wisconsin and North Carolina too. Same with Arizona, Nevada and Michigan.
Georgia could be in doubt, mainly because Governor Kemp will likely try hard to deliver the state to Trump, and his party has a strong GOTV operation. This would advance Kemp’s bid for the 2028 nomination.
artem1s
@O. Felix Culpa:
his father was a Cincinnati talk show host and once ran for office (and lost). so he’s always had that knowitall Village attitude.
wasn’t he supposed to be working on some movie about trump (can’t remember which scandal)? why doesn’t he finish it or drop out of Hollywood?
zhena gogolia
@Geminid: But will it please Amal Clooney?
JMG
Pre-tee off conversation at today’s match of the Seaside Links Senior Men’s League was about the election, which is very rare. These are all old white guys like me, as if you couldn’t guess. Enthusiasm for Biden is low in this group, but there was nary a Trump vote to be found. To quote one retired engineer, “I’d vote for a squirrel before I’d vote for Trump.”
zhena gogolia
@artem1s: When do we get to hear what Brad Pitt thinks? Or Alec Baldwin?
Captain C
@JMG: Most golfers I know hate cheaters. And TCFG cheats about as blatantly as anyone has ever done.
narya
@Omnes Omnibus: @Mousebumples: And I’m with the two of you.
bbleh
@different-church-lady: Inspired: Trying to get voters to drop out.
UncleEbeneezer
@narya: Yup. And I’m giving major side-eye and keeping mental receipts of anyone who isn’t taking this approach.
dc
Right now and through the election (at least) anyone who makes me despair or demobilize is now a pastry or dessert (on this blog). It’s one thing to critique, but we are at war, offer real actions, real steps to contribute to winning this war, or I have no need to know anything about you. Help (real, doable help) or get out of the way.
Ruckus
@ArchTeryx:
I’ve been a democrat for all my 75 yrs, before I had a clue what politics even was, because conservatism is about going backwards, to a shittier time and time and life and humanity doesn’t do that.
Conservatives want to conserve something, something, bullshit. They do not want to move forward, they want to move backasswards. And life doesn’t ever actually do that. Life is relentless in moving forward and the goal should be to make it better for all of us. The entire point of liberalism is to move forward and make things better. But some people are actually afraid to move forward, because forward can be a tad scary. But over the entire run of human history moving backasswards has always screwed people right into the ground. And it creates inequality and it isn’t a viable path given the number of people and what it takes to live and prosper. Of course they only give a damn about them living and prospering. Selfish bastards. Time doesn’t move backwards. Neither does life. Always forwards, relentlessly forward.
We have to make it better for all, not for only the selfish wealthy assholes who want to keep it all.
zhena gogolia
@dc: That’s how I feel.
artem1s
@Eolirin: Ohio collapsed because white Ohio Dem leaders like Tim Ryan refused to campaign in Black communities in Cuyahoga and Summit counties. He thought the old dead white steel union workers around Youngstown who elected him to the House (he took convicted felon Jim “Trumplite Toupee” Trafficant’s seat) were going to vote him into the Senate. Now Emilia Sykes has his House seat and we’re better off IMO that’s he’s gone*. Ohio won’t become a purple state until there is a groundswell of Black candidates from CLE, Cincy, Columbus, etc.. who get experience in local offices and then can run in state wide and federal elections. That’s the only way to rebuild trust with the Black communities.
Ryan thinks Dem voters are going to forget how he tried to kneecap Nancy Smash because she’s old!!!!!!!!!!!!!9/11!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (just like he’s doing now with Joe). Hopefully this will be his last dying breath as any kind of influence over the DCCC, DNC or Ohio Dems.
Cacti
Want to make sure I have this right. George Clooney is an unperson now. Double plus non-good and probably in the thrall of his evil foreigner she-beast wife.
Is this what the BJ brain trust has decided?
Cacti
@zhena gogolia: They need to just shut up and act, am I right?
Fair Economist
If the NYT puts out 200 articles calling for Trump to drop out, with half or so on the front page, I’ll reconsider my boycott.
MisterForkbeard
@Cacti: Nah, but you should probably just go fuck off again. When was the last time you weren’t actively trying to start a fight here?
People are annoyed at Clooney because they disagree with him about Biden and think he’s displaying a lot of poor judgment. They also think he probably turned on Biden because of the Gaza war and his beef isn’t really about competency.
There you go, question answered.
Belafon
@Cacti: It’s useful to remember that Clooney has one vote, just like the rest of us. While it’s nice that they can amplify their voices against people we’re against who have a microphone we don’t, they aren’t gods just because they can. They can be wrong, and, in this case, Clooney is wrong, and we have the right to object to his statement.
tobie
@E: One question will be when did you know / why didn’t you say anything. The other will be a new take: it’s a miracle the country didn’t slide into a ditch given that the leader didn’t know what was happening. Every accomplishment of this admin will be canceled in a second.
CaseyL
Shelly Duval has died at age 75.
I am now at the age that 75 doesn’t seem very old to me.
Yikes.
(She died of diabetes complications; I can’t find whether she had Type I or II. I suspect Type I, because Type II, if treated, is unlikely to kill you.)
O. Felix Culpa
@zhena gogolia: Alec Baldwin might be a little busy with his manslaughter trial in Santa Fe today.
Archon
@Fair Economist: The NYT is obviously bleeding subscribers so they felt they had to put this out now. The problem is they needed to frame their anti-Biden attacks within that idea of Trump being unfit but they didn’t.
West of the Rockies
@Cacti:
You’re an ignorant, pointlessly belligerent fuck. Whine, piss, shit yourself. You offer no hope, no optimism. You want attention, little baby? Fuck off.
cmorenc
I have had to almost completely tune out politics the past 3-4 days for the sake of mental health, except to contemplate which down-ballot candidates to most efficiently donate to – while ignoring the flood of donation-begging text messages from scores of D candidates in making my decisions which are the most productive bets to place bets on with my money. Yeah, I know – a goal of the GOP is to try to not just suppress (fat chance of that with me) or depress D-leaners into sullen passivity, and so trying to keep from falling too far in that direction in temporarily stepping back from the malestrom
One for-sure target of donation will be Josh Stein, D candidate for Governor of NC who is currently our state AG – his opponent Mark Robinson is, even for GOP MAGA types, particularly horrific. Think of Clarence Thomas on steroidal rage as a model, but that doesn’t capture just how terrible Robinson is. He is a black Christian Nationalist who has said in a church sermon that some people need killing. And that’s just a taste.
Ksmiami
@ArchTeryx: yep. It’s not like us hinterland peeps will be immediately hurt, but it’s time to circle the wagons and fight with the team we have.
Ksmiami
@Archon: I hope they go bankrupt- fuck the NYT and the Post. And fuck their aloof, idiotic owners
Old School
@TaMara:
That’s always puzzled me.
Don’t get me wrong – I’ve enjoyed films Clooney has been in, but for a “movie star”, he’s not had a whole lot of box office hits. His biggest films I can recall are the Ocean’s films, but those were really ensemble films.
Fair Economist
@E:
This is the key. We have great answers to the attacks on Biden himself – his accomplishments, his frequent unscripted interviews, his frequent campaign events, etc. But if Biden drops out there’s *no* good answer to “why did you cover up Biden’s problems?”. The only answers are “we lied to the public” and “we forced out a perfectly competent candidate” – both horrible. And there will be NOTHING else above the fold in the NYT until the election is over.
Ruckus
@Archon:
I agree with you on this.
Life can be scary, especially if you are poor or are not allowed to get ahead in life, to get older, to have a reasonable place, reasonable food, a reasonable job. But greedy people want it all for themselves, they want to see suffering because that means that they are “better,” and they are anything but. Humanity has, for it’s entirety, had people that are greedy, in many, many ways because they think greed gets them ahead. They do not want equality, they want to be recognized for being ahead. An actual democracy takes that, or at least part of that ahead away from them. They want to be shitforbrains, with money and the power to be better. How much better is shitforbrains? Actually not one iota, he earned the nickname I’ve given him, but how much of his money has he earned? It’s a big NONE. He is a negative, he does nothing positive. He is not alone in this world in that respect.
The world is a better place when the uber wealthy are taxed very highly, because they don’t need the money, they almost always make the world worse. Money is not the issue – greed is the issue.
Ksmiami
@Fair Economist: never. They’re a Nazi-enabling bunch of chuckle fucks. I hope the place implodes
Citizen Dave
@Richard Fox: Just wanted to say that your post an hour ago captured my exact thoughts and current stance on the issue of the day. (Coincidentally I turn 64 election week.)
matt
Doesn’t this site ban troll assholes?
Geminid
@UncleEbeneezer: For Israeli news, I follow Barak Ravid and Noga Tarnoposky; also the other Israeli reporters they repost. Those reporters lead to other reporters, and the replies show what regular citizens of all stripes think.
Ravid is Washington-based now, but he reported some years for the Israeli news site Walla and he knows the Israeli political actors well. He still writes some for Walla, mainly about American policy, and those articles are worth reading when I can get the doggone translator to work.
Einat Wilf is a very interesting commentator and a prolific lecturer. Wilf’s lectures can be found through her Twitter account. Right now she mainly talks about larger issues concerning Zionism, and Israel’s place in the Middle East and the world. Wilf posts very little on day-to-day Israeli politics, and that could be because she plans to join some party’s slate when there is another Knesset election.
Several parties might recruit her. Einat Wilf served in a couple Knessets 2010-2014(?) as an ally of Ehud Barak. As a young woman, Wilf served on Yitzhak Rabin’s team that negotiated the Olso Accords. She’s 51 now.
My sources on American protests, anti-Semitism etc. are more general. I find plenty of posts about them on Black Twitter, and from people I learned about through Black Twitter like Magdi Jacobs. I learned about her through Ragnarok Lobster who is a very good aggregator.
Omnes Omnibus
@matt: Not really. It’s pretty hard to get banned here.
zhena gogolia
@Cacti: That might be nice, if they don’t know what they’re talking about politically. If they have workable proposals, then fine. I haven’t seen any.
Nora
@cmorenc: Wow, your description of the GOP candidate for NC Governor is frightening. How good are the Democrat’s odds of beating him? Is this a case where money would make a difference or would we just be making a statement (like throwing money at the Turtle’s opponent in his last election)?
MisterForkbeard
@CaseyL: It’s sad – she’s a legend.
And you’re right, 75 feels a lot less old to me now that I’m in my 40s. Aging sucks.
MisterForkbeard
@matt: It’s a high bar to get banned and needs personal intervention from the blogfather, if I remember right. As it should be – otherwise, some really good commenters (Kay, for example) might be in trouble when they push against the generally accepted wisdom.
But there’s folks like Kay, who have different insights, and then there’s argumentative and trolling assholes.
zhena gogolia
@Old School: I like a lot of his films. But I agree, they aren’t blockbusters. Michael Clayton is fantastic.
Cacti
@zhena gogolia: But definitely keep up the fundraising while they’re shutting up, right?
Ruckus
@Richard Fox:
shitforbrains is a greedy fuck. He thinks, such as it is, that the world revolves around the stick up his butt. (This is not the first time I’ve typed that sentence) He’s not dumb but he is a fucking idiot. But one of his failings is that he says the silent parts out loud. The monied of the world do not want their money to be waved around in a moronic fashion and shitforbrains does exactly that. He’s the pompous, arrogant asshole representing the uber wealthy and they try really hard not to be pompous and arrogant assholes, at least publicly, because it shows off their greed.
Archon
@Ksmiami: I think alot of the corporate press made the calculation that Trump is impervious to criticism, his supporters won’t read it and his opponents already know he’s human scum so what’s the point of rehashing Trump’s flaws is it won’t get us more clicks.
I don’t think they calculated the possibility that going over the top on Biden would cause them to lose subscribers.
West of the Rockies
@matt:
I’m sorry, I’ll do better.
Sure Lurkalot
Hal Sparks truth telling about the FTFNYT:
Tazj
@CaseyL: This is exactly my impression of many Democrats right now(no not people here) but elected Democrats. Headless chickens, panic and chaos don’t look good for people in government. They look weak to me and scared of their shadow and I can’t respect them.
It’s fine to come out quickly against people who sexual assault people, embezzle money and such when there is good evidence against them, but coming out early against your incumbent president just looks like a loser’s game.
Commenters here expressing their opinions and fears I have no problem with. We all have are anxieties about the upcoming election and I might think I know what’s best(Biden staying) but I also will admit I don’t know for sure.
But Democratic politicians coming out now before the president is speaking again, when inflation, unemployment, crime and border crossings are down, and Trump is Trump? It’s a bad look.
Jackie
Since TCFG can’t seem to make up his mind re his VP ass kisser, I suggest a bunch of campaign signs that say: TRUMP = Project 2025. Make him deny it.
Mike E
@matt: very rarely, sorta like impeachment 😊 The pie filter above comment #1 works a treat, especially for sea lions like bupalos and assholes like cacti…you can always set the filter to just remove the text instead of displaying various pictures, and you can “toggle” in case you want to see what you’re missing.
Geminid
@Belafon: Ragnarok Lobster on George Clooney:
CaseyL
@MisterForkbeard:
Heh. Try being in your late 60s; the perspective gets even better :)
@zhena gogolia: Michael Clayton was excellent. That last scene, of him in the taxi, having time to think about What Do I Do Now? after his whole previous professional life went blooey, is unforgettable.
I don’t insist actors, or any other artists, “stay in their lane.” Some of them take the time and care to know what they’re talking about. But unless they can show they’ve done that, and have some actual expertise on the subject they’re discussing, I don’t pay much attention to what they say.
Until he rattled his trap about Biden, I would have put Clooney in the Good Smart Guy category. Even his views on Gaza – as much as I understand where he’s coming from – don’t make much sense, since putting Trump in office isn’t going to make things better for them.
me
They really are giddy about Trump2, https://bsky.app/profile/karlbode.bsky.social/post/3kwzdn6y6yy2g
Ruckus
@schrodingers_cat:
To a point, yes. They are ALL about the money, having it, keeping it, being admired for having and keeping it – without saying it out loud. shitforbrains is only loud and – well that’s it, he’s loud. He’s not one of the uber wealthy because he has no idea how to keep his mouth shut. And he thinks that his money makes him great, grand, better. And nothing does that. I don’t call him shitforbrains for no reason.
MagdaInBlack
@Sure Lurkalot: I love Hal. He has kept me sane thru all this drama.
TBone
Excellent writeup!
https://www.wonkette.com/p/aoc-gonna-impeach-justices-thomas
CaseyL
@Tazj:
It also brings up the inevitable reaction when they claim they will “fight” for issues that are important to us.
Oh, they’ll fight for reproductive rights? LGBTQ rights?
They didn’t even fight for their own candidate.
different-church-lady
@Tazj: Every bit of your comment seems obvious to me, but I guess we’re two of the very few.
Eolirin
@artem1s: I’m sorry, but it’s not just Ryan in Ohio. It’s been everyone that isn’t Brown. Including Biden, who should have done better than Hillary and basically didn’t with a similar margin between 2016 and 2020. There’s been a real and durable shift in the state.
I do hope we can eventually reverse it, but it’s a cautionary tale, and we need to understand what happened there much better than we do, and make sure it doesn’t happen anywhere else.
Geminid
@Nora: North Carolina is very different politically than Kentucky. It’s about a 50-50 state now. Governor Roy Cooper is a Democrat and he won reelection in 2020 by around 150,000 votes. That year Joe Biden lost by only 80,000 out of over 4 million votes.
rikyrah
@schrodingers_cat:
Absolutely.
As Black Twitter has said…
Joe Biden only became old because Kamala is Black.
TaMara
@CaseyL: Agree on Michael Clayton and he’s directed some good stuff, too. But his last outing was a snoozefest IMHO.
I wasn’t all that worried when I read he said Biden should step down – random actor/fundraiser gets stupid, then I read it was an OP-ED in the FNYT – that was it. WTF? What makes him worthy of that? His looks? His talent?
Again, he’s welcome to his views and if he doesn’t want to fundraise or vote for Biden, that’s his right. But an actual op-ed? Fuck that guy.
Eyeroller
@CaseyL: Type II diabetes can absolutely kill you even if it’s treated to the best of your ability. It does so to a lot of people every single day. Type I does usually have an earlier onset and may be more difficult to manage, but both are dangerous and have similar complications.
Elizabelle
@rikyrah: I hope he answers one Q about his fitness to serve, announces the subject is closed, and just answers substantive Qs.
If the American press is screaming and acting like howler monkeys, perhaps the audience needs to see that.
Ksmiami
@Archon: whatever, they’ve hurt Democratic Party ppl for years. Time to cut them off
Mike E
@Geminid: pray for influx voters to vote blue because NC is a notorious ticket splitter by defiant personality (AKA old South white patriarchy) so Josh Stein winning will be a distant 2nd to breaking the legislature’s gerrymandered bright red super majority.
/NC resident since 1988
Elizabelle
@Tazj: Good comment, Tazj. The panicked Dems are appalling. Courage, fuckers.
rikyrah
@Nora:
He is absolutely crazy. With a Capital C
Soprano2
@MazeDancer: Wow, that was some crazy shit. I couldn’t get one word out of any of that. I would have laughed at them too.
Cacti
@Belafon: That’s reasonable and substantially different in tone than much of what is coming out in the comments these days.
raven
@CaseyL: Shit, if you haven’t seen Three Women do so.
Mike E
@Soprano2: reminds me of the Brooks Brothers riot in Florida that helped shut down the counting of ballots, at least the theatrical aspect of it.
Eyeroller
@Elizabelle: I saw maybe at Angry Staffer that the generic “control of Congress” poll dipped from D to R and that apparently is what caused these idiots to completely lose their minds. It would explain Bennet’s meeping about “we’re losing losers who are going to lose everything.” So instead of standing up and defending themselves and our nominee, a small but substantial chunk of our electeds showed voters that we’re a bunch of weeping, pants-wetting cowards who will throw the President under the bus.
I think somebody said about them “The US will survive another Trump term but not the end of my Congressional career” or something along those lines.
cmorenc
@Nora: Cook reclassified this race (Stein v Robinson for NC-Gov) from “lean D” to “tossup”, possibly on the assumption that with Trump currently favored to narrowly win NC, Robinson may ride in on his coat-tails. That Robinson is scarier and edgier than Clarence Thomas – unleashed from any restraint of judicial robes – should tell you what you need to know about Robinson.
Soprano2
@zhena gogolia: I thought he looked like he wanted to laugh at them outright but was controlling it.
rikyrah
Keep on telling it, Kenny !
2RawTooReal
@2RawTooReal
What type of party do we want to be? A party that bullies our nominee? A party that takes democracy away from voters who showed up during a primary? A party with leaders who don’t listen to their constituencies? Again, What type of party do we want to be? #BidenHarris2024
https://x.com/2RawTooReal/status/1811396612586967291
Soprano2
@Anoniminous: Hell, I don’t pick up numbers I don’t recognize, and I’m 63. I think phone polling has to be really, really, really hard to do now.
Ruckus
@Anoniminous:
I must be a lot younger than my birth certificate states then, because I only have a cell phone and only have for 30ish yrs. (I worked in professional sports and traveled about 8-9 months of the year. No need to have a landline.) And I do not answer if I don’t know the caller. But what the web has done for all of us is we can look up a number if someone calls that we don’t know.
Scout211
A better opinion piece. Los Angeles Times Editorial Board.
More of this, please.
More at the link.
UncleEbeneezer
@MisterForkbeard: “Different perspective” is the exact same metaphorical shield of plausible-deniability used by every toxic troll (and their defenders) to justify their shitty behavior…funny that…
Ruckus
@JMG:
Well the squirrel is very likely to be smarter, possibly more human as well…..
Eolirin
@MisterForkbeard: Counterpoint: I have not forgotten about Planet Eddie.
UncleEbeneezer
@Soprano2: 50 here and same. Unless I’m expecting a call back from Dr./Dentist/student (who may not be in my contacts) and I see a local area code. Otherwise I almost never pick up.
Lapassionara
@dc: Here’s a real step. Why would any patriotic American want a national security risk like Trump back in the Oval Office, a man known to have disclosed secret information to Putin and/or his henchmen?
The photo of Trump with Putin after the Helsinki summit puts aloe to any claim that TFG is tough. He looked like a whipped puppy, and Putin was positively gleeful.
prostratedragon
Michael Tyler, Biden campaign communications director on Laweence’s show last night. That Joe Biden really needs to get out more for me to believe he has the right stuff❗️
Soprano2
100% QFT. If you can’t be bothered to defend your own candidate and say “look how crazy that other guy is” why should I think you’d do anything for me? What so many of these Democrats don’t get is that this makes them look weak and spineless to the average person, and who wants to vote for a weak, spineless person to represent you? I cannot believe they can’t see this.
kwAwk
I would say we’re lucky the candidate is Trump and not Nixon in 68 or Eisenhower in 52. There my be enough Never Trumpers like me to keep Biden in the hunt. The question is are there enough to actually win and win decisively.
This was never a personal shot at Joe Biden. If he’s capable of running a better campaign and does so that that is great, it’s all we were ever asking for.
Geminid
@Mike E: The demographic aspects at play here are interesting. I live in Virginia, and my state has gone from red to purple to a light blue during this century. Much of the shift could attributed to newcomers from other states and other countries. North Carolina also has a dynamic economy that attracts the college educated and immigrants, and these groups are likely Democratic voters.
I attribute a lesser part of Virginia’s political shift to the Republican party’s move towards radicalism. Wason Center polls of registered voters consistently show self-described Moderates as the largest pool of voters, and Republicans are alienating moderates.
Virginia Republicans were always conservative, but they began a rightward lurch in the 2013 Governor’s election. The same forces that put Cuccinelli at the top of the ticket in 2013 knocked Eric Cantor out in the 7th CD primary the next year. This shift is palpable, and has driven moderates away from the party. The same dynamic may be at work in North Carolna.
Ruckus
@CaseyL:
75 is old.
75 is not OLD. It’s getting there though, when the downhill side is shorter than the uphill side.
I know because I’m 75. But I also have a neighbor who is 98 and rides around the apt complex on her electric bicycle like thing that has 4 wheels. She used to ride a motorcycle. For decades. She rode before I did and I rode for 57 yrs.
The point is that old is more than the physical side of life, it’s attitude, it’s the ability to still do mental gymnastics to at least some level, to have thought and the concept that life is more than you, it’s more than your town, it’s more than all the humans. It’s a cycle, it starts, it hopefully goes on for many decades and then POOF it isn’t any more. Enjoy it, live it, experience it, help others.
And never give up.
MomSense
@MisterForkbeard:
He hosted a massive fundraiser for him months into the war in Gaza.
Eolirin
@Geminid: If not for the extreme and intensely gerrymandered NC legislature having fucked with all sorts of stuff I think NC would already look more like VA back in 2008.
The electorate is indeed very close to 50/50, and that’s with the various ways they’ve been engaging in voter suppression.
Richard Fox
@Citizen Dave: thanks kindly, Citizen Dave!! :-)
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: Also why have primaries at all if you are going to let the NYT Editorial Board decide the nomination.
This would be a terrible. message to send as a party to propsective voters and not just in this election.
Richard Fox
@Ruckus: He will collapse under his own weight. Rather like a volcanic pyroclastic cloud. (!) lol
schrodingers_cat
@rikyrah: Spot on
I am getting so tired of this (mostly) white people freakout.
The Thin Black Duke
Trump can run, but he can’t hide. No matter how loudly the GOP yells, “Pay no attention to the drooling orange sociopath behind the curtain”, Trump is going to have to start getting on the road again to campaign and it’s obvious that his brain trust ain’t comfortable with that idea at all.
p.a.
Are these fucking idiot ABBs (anybody but Biden) unaware that as soon as there’s a change, the bullshit meme (especially against Kamala Harris) will shift to “what did you know, when did you know it, and how could you let someone mentally unable remain in power for as long as you did?”!!!!!
Geminid
@Eolirin: Republicans gerrymandered Virginia’s map too, in 2011. After the 2011 elections, the House of Delegates had a 65-35 Republican majority in a state Obama won and would win again. Both of our Senators were Democrats.
That gerrymander collapsed in 2017, and Republicans only clung to a 51-49 because a tue was resolved in their favor. Our 7R, 4D congressional delegation shifted to 7D, 4R in 2018, when Jennifer Wexton, Elaine Luria and Abigail Spanberger flipped resed seats.
Political and demographic shifts can break gerrymanders down as a decade progresses, especially in a high growth state..
schrodingers_cat
@p.a.: Feckless and spineless that’s what they are.
Soprano2
@The Thin Black Duke: I think it’s funny that the press hasn’t been asking why TCFG isn’t campaigning more vigorously than he has been. It seems like he does a rally every few days, and precious little else. Meanwhile, they think Biden needs to do 3-4 events per day to prove he’s fit enough to be president. Why was he doing a rally in FL, a state he’s likely to win? That’s not how most presidential candidates behave.
TooManyJens
Has everyone seen this?
https://x.com/Timodc/status/1811136469911711877
Top Dems, who won’t go on the record because they’re fucking cowards, told Ezra Klein that they’d rather have Trump than speak out against Biden (who they think is absolutely going to lose), because they have their standing in the party to think about and they don’t think Trump is an existential threat to democracy.
I know he won’t, but I want Ezra to burn these guys so hard they’ll leave shadows on the wall like in Pompeii.
kwAwk
@p.a.: They’re already doing that. That’s not going to change either way.
It all depends on how Biden handles things. As I’ve said before, if he uses this as a pass the torch moment, it’ll be different. If he just says hey, I still think I can do this job at a high level, but I hear you that are ready for a new generation to take over, guys my age have had their say.
It would actually take some of the winds out of Trump’s sails, as in why the fuck is Trump so desperate to get a second term.
Eyeroller
@p.a.: In the first place, no they are not thinking about that. They assume everything will work out if we just get an attractive younger candidate. In the second place, there have been claims that these “big donors” (and we know for sure some of the ABBs) want Kamala gone.
schrodingers_cat
@TooManyJens: Is Ezra Klien trustworthy? He has been flogging this contested primary bullshit since January.
I don’t trust Tim Miller either.
eclare
@zhena gogolia:
Again, Julia Roberts was at that fundraiser. To my knowledge, she still hasn’t said anything. If Joe was so out of it, why hasn’t she spoken up?
She once told this joke: what word in the dictionary comes between reptile and repugnant? Republican! She wants to win as much as anyone.
artem1s
@Eolirin:
I never said it was just Ryan. It was a whole gang of white male Dems who got butthurt when Carl Stokes got elected mayor in Cleveland (first major city to elect an AA), his brother was elected to Congress and when he retired he passed his seat on to Stephanie Tubbs Jones. The base was shifting from their white male union pals and white shoe lawyers to the AA communities. There was formidable leadership in the Black community in Cleveland that had to be courted in order to get Ohio’s EC vote or to get elected Senator or to a state wide office. 40-60 years of suppressing the vote in AA districts, ratfucking with public school funding and white flight, loss of manufacturing jobs and union workers (that tended to vote Dem) and heavily gerrymandered districts – all those things contributed to Ohio turning deep red and were aided and abetted by white men who’d rather work with George Voinovich or Mike DeWine than have to campaign for the Black vote in Black districts.
kwAwk
@TooManyJens: They’re trying to handle a tough situation behind closed doors and without causing a huge schism in the party.
Ruckus
@Richard Fox:
His own weight and his lack of a viable mind.
As I’ve stated before, I don’t call him shitforbrains for no reason…..
Eolirin
@Geminid: Yeah, sure, I’m just saying that if we had had, say, a SCOTUS majority that struck down gerrymandering instead of saying the court can’t decide on this topic except when it feels like it, NC would have already jumped forward a lot just on that basis.
The NC legislature is one of the most extreme bodies in the country for a state that has such a thin margin of voters too. Even worse than WI which has also been very bad.
But I think they’ll follow a similar path to VA given enough time.
Geminid
@The Thin Black Duke: Trump is a weak candidate who needs to be kept under wraps. He’s not going to get better either.
TooManyJens
@kwAwk: They should keep people from mouthing off to the press then. They’re causing a gigantic schism in the party. And if they don’t see Trump as a threat to democracy they shouldn’t be anywhere near power.
CaseyL
@TooManyJens:
Holy fuck.
Teddy Roosevelt once said William McKinley “has no more backbone than a chocolate eclaire.”
What self-serving bottom dwellers. As long as they’re fine, they can live with a Trump Presidency.
If Klein isn’t just making shit up, he’d damn well better out those tapeworms (apologies to actual tapeworms).
Eolirin
@TooManyJens: I don’t think we need to give Ezra the benefit of the doubt here. His definition of “top democrats” isn’t defined, he doesn’t say how many of them are saying this, we have no idea if he’s distorting their context, or even just making shit up like the media has been all over the place with this story.
kwAwk
@TooManyJens: This shouldn’t be causing a great schism in the party. The fact that we have a problem with Joe Biden’s campaigning and his debate performance isn’t in contention.
The question is can Joe Biden improve or should he be replaced. It is a very fair discussion to have.
Eyeroller
@TooManyJens: Yeah I’d like to know who these “top Dems” are. They can keep their damned mouths shut and not even talk “off the record” to Ezra. If they are in safe districts or states it won’t matter whether they backstab Biden or not. they’ll keep their “status” regardless of who wins. If they are in a less safe situation, then if Trump wins, they are at higher risk of losing their own precious seats.
I guess it’s an illustration of the Law of Institutions. You protect yourself and your standing.
The fact that they’re talking at all to any member of the press/punditry makes me question their judgement anyway. Too cozy a relationship there. They are likely to be absorbing the media narrative. Biden’s situation is pretty comparable right now to Obama’s in 2012 but I suppose nobody remembers that. We may be a little worse off but not really all that much.
TooManyJens
@Eolirin:
I mean, I hope you’re right. I don’t think he’s one of those guys who’ll get a quote from the caterer and cite it as “sources close to the White House,” but I could be wrong.
libarbarian
If they want ANY chance of winning with Biden, then Kamala needs to do what he cannot and get out and make lots of public appearances and demonstrate that she is competent and capable of taking the reigns – which she damn well might have to do in the next 4 years, to be honest. Essentially, while maintaining the forms of acknowledging that he would be the president and not her, they need to put her out AS IF it was a Team that was running. They need her to implicitly (not explicitly) act like she is a real partner in the office. That might well go a long way to assuage concerns of independents who are afraid that he is not capable to doing the job anymore.
I see no signs that they are doing this or ever will. At all.
Geminid
@TooManyJens: Ezra Klein won’t burn these sources. They are his peers and he thinks like them anyway.
eclare
@Soprano2:
Remember Dubya: that was some weird shit
p.a.
If tRumpism is known to be the (hopefully) last flailing gasp of white conservative power-grabs, I have to say this Democratic “dump the ticket, open convention” idiocy can be looked at as Dem-insider white lib “we won’t let go of the reins. We’re not going to be the junior partner in this coalition.” It’s disheartening if not disgusting.
Eolirin
@artem1s: Okay so why did Biden do as poorly as Hillary? He turned out black people pretty well everywhere else. He’s done better with union folk everywhere else. What’s going on there?
Renie
Can we just agree we are all going to vote for Biden and not trump and stop the infighting about whether Biden should step down? The fact is whatever we post will have zero effect on what he does.
Our time would be better spent figuring out and DOING whatever we can to stop trump. Spread everywhere the facts of Project 2025, amplify the idiotic lies trump is saying, if you are on twitter don’t argue with anyone about Joe, just pushback about trump and his bullshit (and go after the NYTimes and WashPost).
Let’s swing this around and attack trump not each other.
You can donate, canvass, phonebank, volunteer or write postcards. There is definitely something for everyone.
We MUST win in November.
Eyeroller
@libarbarian: She is, you just don’t hear about it. Could she do more? Probably. But she’s been doing rallies and speeches. She is concentrating on minority and women outreach so I guess that doesn’t count to the press.
moonbat
@Scout211: Thanks for this!!
SomeRandomGuy
I’d start reframing the “Biden must step down!” as a series of questions.
“So, you’re hoping Joe Biden dies… or steps down?”
“Is it enough if he’s the target of an assassination attempt, that renders him critically injured, and unable to continue, and, do you need to be sure that Kamala Harris is also killed in the assassination attempt you’re hoping for? Whoops, I’m sorry, the assassination attempt you’d *accept* in lieu of Biden stepping down.”
“Do you have any preference for how Joe Biden becomes unable to continue? Would a persistent vegetative state be acceptable to you? HEY, I just AGREED you don’t want him DEAD, so STOP accusing ME! I didn’t even finish the question. Persistent vegetative state, stroke that renders him unable to make decisions, or heart attack that weakens him so he can’t get out of bed for the rest of his life: we agree you don’t want him DEAD, so which of these horrible fates *are* you hoping for?”
“If Kamala Harris becomes the nominee, does she also need to not DIE, okay, NOT DIE, but become completely incapacitated as well? Oh, quit storming off, I’m just asking questions!”
TooManyJens
@kwAwk: It is a fair discussion to have. Unfortunately, we (the party in general, not just BJ) are not having a real discussion. We’re having a mass public freakout, one that’s being helped along by people who hate Biden and/or Democrats in general and by people who just want more excitement.
Do you know any more about Biden’s mental capacity than you did before the debate? I don’t. Have any reliable facts actually come out? Because what I’ve been seeing is fear, rumors, and people who seem a lot more certain about how to win this election than they ought to be.
Eolirin
@libarbarian: She’s already been doing that, for months, even before the debate.
And it’s not like Biden isn’t doing a lot of events.
schrodingers_cat
@Eyeroller: Yep she is hosting a Twitter space in North Carolina as we speak. 28K people have tuned in. But you cannot wake up someone who is only pretending to be asleep.
different-church-lady
@Soprano2:
While also actually doing all the stuff a president has to do.
kwAwk
@TooManyJens: The old marketing saw say Perception is Reality. If people perceive that Biden isn’t mentally fit for the job they will act on those perceptions and vote him out of office. There is nothing unfair about that, this is the toughest job in the world, it is Biden’s job to prove he is fit for the job not ours to prove he isn’t.
I’m not a Biden hater and I don’t hate democrats and I see Biden’s performance in the debate as unacceptable. It doesn’t even have to mean that he is mentally unfit for the job, it’s just the appearance of being so that is going to kill us.
Yes a month or two ago it was the right wing idiots who were making the accusations and they weren’t acting in good faith. But as they say, a broken clock is right twice a day. This may be one of those times.
Ruckus
@Soprano2:
shitforbrains is in aging decline. His world is old, and he does not fit well into any human world, because he thinks he is top shit. He is half correct, he is shit.
I’ve met a lot of people in my life, some great, many good and some that very obviously earned any moniker that has the word shit in it. Not long before I retired from working within professional sports, one asswipe who I’d never even met came up to me and chewed me out for something that I had zero to do with, because I wore the uniform of the sporting body that I worked for. Some people expect to be at the top of the ladder when they can’t even tie their shoes. IOW they are fucking idiots, no matter what their IQ tests say. They work at it, they revel in it, they breathe it in with every breath. They are the people that the concept of pompous, arrogant asshole was invented to describe. We likely all have run into at least one of these in our lifetimes, if we are over 12 yrs old. And we will run into more. It is after all humanity. All the various levels, from pure shit on up. We all have bad days, some create their own bad days and revel in them. It isn’t a good look, nor does it ever build respect.
BarcaChicago
@different-church-lady: THIS. And that’s what will get us through this craziness.
eclare
@Lapassionara:
Along with the photo in the Oval with Lavrov and Kislyak. You know those two must have been thinking, “Can you believe he’s that stupid?”
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/10/527755991/trump-meets-with-russias-lavrov-at-the-white-house-today
libarbarian
@Eyeroller:
That’s part of the problem. They are using her purely for base outreach. The base isn’t the problem. She needs to be seen by everyone if they want to assauge the fears of people who are not already partisan democrats.
And we can rail against the sexism and racism in media coverage till the cows come home, but it doesn’t help get the job done. At a certain point we have to accept the hand we are dealt and work within the flawed world we have.
Aussie Sheila
@Soprano2:
Yes indeed. Fancy asking people to support your Party when you can’t support a candidate you just all voted for in Primaries. Weak in front of bullies doesn’t inspire confidence in people who are watching it and wondering what the hell is going on.
Obviously I don’t mean you personally, I’m speaking generally here.
Mike E
@Eolirin: my god. Joe Biden has won every election, you know, every November ballot he’s appeared on, for 50 years. Ubiquitous ratfucking.
Old School
@eclare:
I don’t know how out of it Joe was, but the jetlag that hit Biden was there at the fundraiser.
Biden went to Europe for the D-Day celebrations from June 5th – 9th, returned back to D. C. for June 9th – 12th, and then went back to Europe for the G7 Summit from June 12th – 15th.
The Clooney fundraiser was the night of June 15th in Los Angeles.
TooManyJens
@kwAwk: Here’s the thing. If perception is reality, it seems to me like a really bad idea for Dems to keep running to the press to reinforce the perception that Biden’s down to his last two neurons. But they insist on backing the ammo truck right up to GOP headquarters.
They could have gone full out to counter that perception but chose the chickenshit option. Like they always fucking do.
@Soprano2: Yes, exactly.
libarbarian
@schrodingers_cat:
28K Democrat who were already going to vote for Biden anyway.
We are NOT going to win this by “firing up the base”. We need people who are not already our partisans.
Eyeroller
@libarbarian: Consolidating the base is the most fundamental thing to do. That has not been completed yet.
Eyeroller
@Old School: There are also reports that Clooney wasn’t really there long at all. Took a few pictures and left. Biden stayed for three hours.
Mike E
@Eyeroller: ugh, another one.
geg6
@Eolirin:
Which, if you look even deeper, turns out to be exactly three black respondents.
Geminid
@libarbarian: Those 28,000 Democrats know and can influence a lot of people, and not just base voters.
TooManyJens
@Eyeroller: I wonder how his dad feels about all this.
eclare
@Eyeroller:
Yeah she was just at the AKA convention and Essence Fest.
Eyeroller
@Mike E: I don’t mind most marine mammals. But sea lions? I could do without sea lions.
Eolirin
@Mike E: I am asking a question specifically about the electorate of Ohio. I would very much like to know how a state that elected Obama twice has gone +7 R immediately afterwards.
It’s got nothing to do with Biden’s relative strengths and weaknesses. All of the Dem statewide candidates that aren’t Brown are losing by about that margin. Biden is simply an example of how it’s not just poor candidate quality in those other races that’s doing it, because Biden was a good candidate in 2020 in places that look more like Ohio.
Soprano2
The interview Greg Sargent did with Ron Klain was good, he made a good case for Biden and Sargent asked hard, probing questions. Highly recommended listening. Klain talks so fast!
SomeRandomGuy
You know, at first, I thought you were speaking idiotically. Then you mentioned “partisan democrats,” some of whom are the ones expressing most of the worry. Have you ever considered that you should think about a problem, before speaking about it, and expecting to be listened to?
Eyeroller
@Eolirin: Loss of population, and specifically loss of younger people, is part of it.
Belafon
@libarbarian: Last time I checked, women were a pretty large chunk of the electorate.
libarbarian
@Eyeroller:
If she spends the next 4 months doing TwitterSpaces with the base then we’re fucked.
UncleEbeneezer
@Geminid: Thanks. Yes, I found most of my follows via Magdi Jacobs as well. I’d be curious to know your take on these (if you are familiar with them, all on Twitter):
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim
Talia Ringer
Daniel Sugarman
Hen Mazzig
Alex @JewishWonk
Aizenberg
Gershom Gorenberg
Sadly some of the first-stop orgs like StopAntiSemitismNow and the ADL seem really problematic and not real trustworthy.
SomeRandomGuy
Okay, so, now that Trump has failed to prove he’s fit for office… what?
Yeah, I thought so. You WILL NOT support Biden until he PROVES he will never cough, sneeze, get constipated, fart after eating a nasty bean burrito, catch a cold or the flu, you want his bones replaced by adamantium, which won’t hurt him because of his X-factor that also makes him functionally immortal.
Go ‘way kid, I’m sure I hear you mommy calling. If you want to hold a grown-up discussion, grow up.
Sister Golden Bear
@UncleEbeneezer:
Same. Also with so many shady polling outfits, even when I’ve seen a call listed as a polling company I ignored it.
kwAwk
@TooManyJens: It’s not everybody in the party’s job to prop up Biden. It’s Biden’s job to prop up himself. He’s had almost two weeks to put out the fire and re-assure people.
This really isn’t about whether Biden in or isn’t functioning mentally, it is about whether he can run an effective campaign that is going to inspire people and get them to come out to vote.
This isn’t even all about Biden. It is about how this affects candidates all up and down the ballot in November.
Eolirin
@Eyeroller: So then my other question is, do we need to be concerned about something like that happening in PA? Not necessarily this cycle, but going forward.
I’m hoping the infrastructure and tech manufacturing investments help some with that entire region, but it’ll take a while for them to be fully felt.
If we lose now it probably won’t matter because I don’t think we get another real election. But if we win, should we be pushing to get more investment into places like PA?
I was not terribly worried about trendlines there, given the 2022 outcomes, but that it’s now consistently polling worse than WI is a little concerning. If it’s margins are lower than WI’s in the final tally, even winning, we might need to focus on doing more organizing there. We really can’t afford to lose that state in the long term.
Sure Lurkalot
@Ruckus: There maybe truth in “you’re as old as you feel” and the power of positive thinking but 75 is old. Yes, there are old people who run marathons, ride bikes and climb mountains and old people that don’t. I have relatives that didn’t make it to my ripe age of 69 but I did consider those who did, well, old. Not a criticism just math.
I love to hike and bike, lift weights and do cardio but it’s not like any of those activities are the same for me as 1, 2 or 3 decades ago. Still listening to my body but it says different things now. Not bad things.
chrisanthemama
@Elizabelle: 5:30 pm EDT, from what I’ve read.
kwAwk
@SomeRandomGuy: Jebus dude. Everybody knows who Trump is. They pretty much know what they’re going to get.
We have to prove we have something better to offer. We’re not going to win by running around saying nothing except Trump is a Poopiehead!
Geminid
@libarbarian: You know damned well Harris isn’t going to spend the next 4 months doing Twitter Spaces with the base.
Eolirin
@libarbarian: She’s been hitting college campuses like crazy. Those are low propensity voting groups and getting them to turn out in numbers will likely tip Wisconsin and maybe even PA. Will certainly help in NC.
Belafon
@kwAwk: It’s not Biden’s job to make everyone feel safe, because he can’t. The rest of us have to act like the upcoming election is going to decide whether we are a democracy or not, and decide if we’re going to do the work necessary to make that happen. It’s also our job to realize that the whole “Drop Biden” thing is designed to make sure Trump gets reelected because nothing will actually get better if Biden is forced out.
schrodingers_cat
One more sockpuppet for the pie chest.
kwAwk
@Belafon: I agree with you that this upcoming elections is very important. I even agree that Trump winning this election could be catastrophic. Unfortunately there a lot of low info voters out there that don’t really see it that way and they get to vote too.
You have to get out of your us vs them bunker. I’m not trying to get Trump elected, just the opposite in fact.
Candidates used to never be selected before the conventions and selecting one at the convention is nothing all that new. There is plenty of time between August and November for a new candidate to make their case to the people.
japa21
@kwAwk: Biden has been out there very clearly showing he is quite capable cognitively. Trump makes one public appearance and shows he isn’t. What do you expect him to do that he isn’t doing?
Eyeroller
@Eolirin: PA has always needed high turnout in Pittsburgh and Philly and a few other cities. People call it Pennsyltucky in between. If pollsters don’t hit those two major cities well enough that could be a problem. Also keeping margins up in Pennsyltucky is important. I think Pittsburgh definitely and probably the Philly area is growing. I was under the impression some parts of Ohio, such as Cleveland, are starting to grow again but it takes time to reverse a demographic backslide.
Geminid
@UncleEbeneezer: I don’t recognize most of these people, besides Hen Mazzig. I’d say generally that some of the sites like Visegrad24 that are pushing the anti-Semitism narrative have a generally right wing agenda, and are weaponizing the problem in service of that agenda. A lot of people of all ideological stripes have weaponized this war from its very beginning.
Ed. Daniel Seidman is another knowledgeble Israeli commentator. Seidman is a long-time civil rights attorney based in Jerusalem. He sometimes joins Tarnopolsky on podcasts.
Mike E
@Eolirin: ah, got you… winning places like Ohio, Florida and NC are a tougher call post Obama. He was a once in a generation political figure, plus the GOP have locked in their electoral hegemony by message and by deed (like voter suppression)
Omnes Omnibus
The trolls have arrived.
Captain C
@libarbarian:
Look harder, because they are. And demand that your news sources cover this, which they are doing a terrible job of.
Eyeroller
@Mike E: There are demographic reasons for Ohio (too many old white people) and Florida (too many old white people and right-wing Hispanics of various ages and nationalities). NC is always on the verge of turning light blue (Geminid likes to talk about that, we can hope he’s right) and Obama was able to get over the line there.
kwAwk
@japa21: Cognitively capable is the floor. Charismatic, clear, concise, inspiring and visionary gets you closer to the ceiling.
Belafon
@kwAwk: So how do they know who Trump is but don’t know who Biden is?
And if you’re hung up on “We have to give them something” then you can tell people about Project 2025 vs everything the Biden administration as done, like lowering drug prices, which, btw, 2025 will get rid of.
japa21
@Omnes Omnibus: But they are subtle. Not quite as blatant.
Eyeroller
@japa21: I don’t mind most marine mammals. But sea lions? I could do without sea lions.
kwAwk
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ll say this time around on BJ, you guys remind me more of the wingnuts I used to debate on conservative blogs, than of the liberals I used to see.
Trying to drive away anybody who disagrees. Endless bunkerism and victimization. Blaming the media for all your problems.
TooManyJens
@kwAwk: That’s where we differ, because I do think it’s the party’s job not to shiv the candidate in public.
And he’ll have a hell of a lot more trouble running an effective campaign now that they’ve been telling the world he’s incompetent.
I just want this decision to be made based on reality and not fear, and for politicians to exercise some fucking common sense and not make things worse while that decision is being made. And that is not how any of this is going.
TBone
Comment of the Day:
“A series of texts quoted in DKos comments. Copying because it’s 100% on the money.
Magdi Jacobs
@magi_jay
Hi. I’m about to swear. I apologize for this. I don’t think it’s particularly becoming. I also think there is no way to convey my thoughts without swearing, perhaps to a great extent.
Democrats: Get Your Fucking Shit Together.
The truth about why we lost 2016 was not a Trumpian revolution. It’s because we looked weak. We made ourselves weak. We made HRC look weak. What y’all are doing right now makes this weak-ass shit from 2016 look like fucking pudding. You Are Weakening Us.
You could be making the media look ridiculous right now. But instead you are *continuing*–for reasons that are beyond my comprehension–to make *us* look weak. The Republican party hasn’t won the popular vote for 20 fucking years in a POTUS election.
The Republican party was the dog that caught the car w/ abortion. People who are not Republicans *hate* the Republican party. They really do. But instead of running with all that, all you seem to be determined to do is to make us look fucking weak.”
From elsewhere
kwAwk
@Belafon: If they don’t know everything good Biden has done, who’s fault is that? Who’s job is it to tell them?
People do know who Biden is, it just doesn’t seem like he’s the same person he was four years ago, or who he was in 2012 or 2008.
Omnes Omnibus
@kwAwk: Hit dogs holler.
japa21
@kwAwk: I am ashamed of myself but a0 you are moving goal posts and b0 he is also displaying those qualities. Ashamed because I am actually responding.
libarbarian
@Eolirin:
This isn’t 2012 or even 2020. Young people are not reliable anymore.
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/30/nx-s1-4984972/poll-biden-younger-voters-trump
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/07/voter-age-biden-trump-2024-election-00150923
kwAwk
@TooManyJens: You sound like Donald Trump. Everyone who criticizes him publicly is a traitor who has to be destroyed. Presidential election years are very important in the Democratic party because the base isn’t as reliable.
Biden didn’t go through a primary this year to be vetted (as a courtesy to him), and unfortunately being vetted in July. It’s all part of the process.
satby
@schrodingers_cat: yes. Replace Biden with Harris, then knock Harris out (at the age where she’s still peaking politically). They get two for one. And people who insist that everyone would vote for Harris and she’d attract more non-committed voters is being wilfully, almost maliciously blind to the racism and misogyny in this country. Plus they’re dupes and helping spread disinformation.
TooManyJens
@kwAwk: You read poorly.
UncleEbeneezer
@Eolirin: You are not alone.
kwAwk
@Omnes Omnibus: You’re not as mysterious as you think you are. It was quite obvious who you were talking about. Anybody who doesn’t follow the herd.
kwAwk
@TooManyJens: Not really. A big part of Trump’s power is that he’s able to destroy anybody who criticizes him whether he deserves it or not.
eclare
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m stuffed! I’ve had four pies today! Up til today, just one. I decided I couldn’t take it.
SomeRandomGuy
@kwAwk: We’ve already proven we have something hundreds of times better. But you’re saying we haven’t. OH! I get it! You get to WHINE that Biden doesn’t give you that special thrill running up your leg. Try porn for that.
So, again: is this a matter of you shitposting Biden, or do you actually have something to say?
Soprano2
@Eyeroller: It’s the same phenomenon as how the press couldn’t find even one enthusiastic Hillary voter in 2016. They were everywhere, but because they were mostly women over 40 they might as well have been invisible as far as the press is concerned.
JaySinWA
Bloom County reminder that panic doesn’t help. Monarch Flash Mob respite.
Breath, take a moment.
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=122156386124166125
SomeRandomGuy
Ahem.
Mi mi mi mi. (Sprays throat.)
BWAHAHAHAHAH! OMG! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, and HO HO HO for the holidays.
Back to being an unthinking, unfeeling, bastard for biden.
kwAwk
@SomeRandomGuy: Considering the best interpretation of the polls I could give you is that they are within the margin of error, I have to say you use that word proven. I don’t think it means what you think it means.
eclare
@satby:
Yep. I just hope Biden stays strong against these backstabbers. He’s Irish, so I assume he holds grudges and digs in. Here’s hoping.
Soprano2
@Ruckus: This describes the general manager at the box company where my first full-time job after college was. He expected everyone to kowtow to him and agree with everything he said just because he was the general manager. I hated him; he’s the only person I’ve held a grudge against for my whole adult life. If I knew where he was buried I’d try to dump piss on his grave.
Omnes Omnibus
@kwAwk: There are quite a few people here with whom I disagree, sometimes quite strongly, who I would never call trolls. You, however, are different. It’s not like you are new here and no one knows your schtick.
Belafon
@kwAwk: Now you’re just bs-ing. You show no actual attempt to demand that people respond to Trump’s obvious mental decline.
schrodingers_cat
@satby: Many of the same people who are now suggesting that Kamala be the top of the ticket were the ones who spread canards about her record in 2020. I am suspicious of their new found love. They called her Copmala. She was not black enough. I could go on.
Her parents weren’t citizens when she was born, that will give rise to a whole new birther cottage industry. Right now its an artisanal business.
I would like her to be the nominee when she wins the nomination by winning primaries
Biden won the nomination and I stand by the nominee.
rikyrah
Wesley Clark (@WesClarkjr) posted at 0:12 AM on Thu, Jul 11, 2024:
Biden took on corporate America by backing unions, forcing down the price of insulin, stepping up antitrust enforcement and freeing workers from non-compete agreements – in case you were wondering why the rich white guys in our own party have it in for him.
(https://x.com/WesClarkjr/status/1811267351062655378?s=03)
TooManyJens
@kwAwk: If you can’t tell the difference between Trump and someone who’s upset that Dems are making this extremely important decision in the most self-destructive way possible—well, one of us should be embarrassed here and it’s not going to be me.
Mike E
@TBone: sadly, Daily Kos is experiencing trollmageddon these days, being a top 1k* website and all.
*not intended as actual ranking
rikyrah
VoteHeaux™; A creole banjee bitch from![]()
(@voteheaux) posted at 1:42 PM on Thu, Jul 11, 2024:
Hot take:
We get Kamala guaranteed in the White House with Biden. As VP obviously, & most probably, President for 1/2 years.
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE WHITE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SUPPORT HER IN THREE MONTHS. If they put her up in Nov & she loses, we NEVER see her in the Oval as Pres. https://t.co/W5y9OZIrGG
(https://x.com/voteheaux/status/1811471036711600552?s=03
UncleEbeneezer
@satby: Tho whole thing that’s extra-stupid about all of this, they don’t even have a replacement in mind. At least in 2016 the plan was to try to shove Bernie in against the will of the Dem Base. This time it’s just Anyone But Biden (Or Harris). Truly the stupidest shit I’ve ever seen.
rikyrah
The New York Times is the #VichyPress (@Needle_of_Arya) posted at 4:15 AM on Thu, Jul 11, 2024:
The white men currently wanting Biden to step down ironically canceled themselves and made the party Blacker, browner more Asian and more Indigenous as a result.
(https://x.com/Needle_of_Arya/status/1811328397152231556?s=03)
rikyrah
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
digby (@digby56) posted at 1:48 PM on Thu, Jul 11, 2024:
Barbara Boxer asks Chris Jansing why the press is excitedly wondering about Trump’s VP pick when nobody mentions that his forer VP was almost killed in the insurrection and won’t endorse him. Jansing replied defensively, “well, we’ve talked a lot about Donald Trump. Anyway ..”
(https://x.com/digby56/status/1811472709303566596?t=y-rSzjJ16cJ0seGpT8Q9GQ&s=03)
satby
You’re not the only one. Ugliest thread I ever saw in 20 years here.
Or the boost their leaving got from a front pager here, either.
SomeRandomGuy
@japa21: it’s easy to assume people really do care, really do want to learn, really do want comfort.
Wanna get revenge? Post occasional sensible comments on right wing blogs. Make sure you really do something useful like, “now, wait, since the 14th amendment grants the right to live, how can a mere person, with a gun, take away a person’s right to live, without any negative consequences, just because that person was a scared little (expletive meaning weak and helpless, deleted), and shot without warning or reasonable cause?”
Oh, they’ll tell you how stupid you are, and how it clearly doesn’t apply when a cop drives up and shoots a 12 year old before an independent observer is sure the cop car stopped. Or when a person is afraid that someone with a gun might pick up that gun, and fire, shoots the other guy first, and then gets pardoned due to the right to defend himself against a threat that didn’t even occur.
But they hate it. They have to react and mock, but everyone in there with a brain is seeing them look like children writing a book report without reading the book. That’s why they spend all their time chanting “Lets go brandon!” because they’re afraid if they let their participants think, they might vote Democratically.
SFBayAreaGal
@schrodingers_cat:
This 💯%. I’m white and I’m disgusted with this turncoat, freak out behavior.
Sure Lurkalot
@kwAwk:
Maybe this guy, the political editor at the Daily Beast and an MSNBC contributor?
No, this his one of his indispensible insights of late:
Yeah, definitely 100% Biden’s fault none of these things his administration has accomplished is being reported.
rikyrah
Jennifer Bendery
@jbendery
Foreign press pool reporter asked French prez Macron about his impression of Biden: Macron: “I don’t understand your question about President Biden. He is my counterpart. He is the President of the United States & we are happy to have him as the President of the United States.”
2:11 PM · Jul 11, 2024
https://x.com/jbendery/status/1811478543928311857
SomeRandomGuy
@kwAwk: Ah, you believe in the fallacy of Appeal to Popularity. If a statement is *popular*, you say, it MUST be true.
Alas, many a child hoping for a nice day for a picnic, has learned that the desirability and popularity of a proposition has *nothing* to do with its truth.
So: tomorrow, if everyone thinks Biden is doing great, suddenly, Biden will once again be proven competent – far more so than Trump – but if the polls turn, you’ll say “whoops, the proof of the proposition has just gone out the window.”
Proving that you really are *stupid*. I’m sorry – it’s a correctable issue, in your case. You seem capable of thinking, you just refuse to do so *effectively*.
kwAwk
@Belafon: Because I don’t think Trump has declined that much. He’s the same narcissistic bullshit artist he’s always been.
satby
@kwAwk: again, another one that doesn’t like being on the losing side in an argument dismissing all the people who think differently as having a “herd mentality”. We couldn’t have made up our minds independently, Cole told us all what to think.
Ruckus
@Sure Lurkalot:
75 is old.
But. It is far nicer being old than not being. It takes a long time to get to old. But what it doesn’t take is more than continuing to breathe and wake up. Every step up the birthday ladder is getting older. But as I’ve said here now and prior to this, old can last quite a bit of time. It is also a matter of the mind – the old you are is only as old as you feel. I had a cousin who lasted 6 months, I, as I stated here know far older. And am myself. There is no timeline, it doesn’t say on your birth certificate how long you have. You make it work or you don’t. And sometimes it’s picked for you, how long you have. War, traffic and assholes will do that. You live a good life, don’t be an asshole and enjoy life, it ain’t all bad. Or all good. It’s life. It’s far better when you work at living and being a decent human. Some never figure that out, they work at having a lot of money, which of course buys stuff but not happiness. Happiness you find, you build, you create. Everything else is resting, eating, crapping, repeat daily.
schrodingers_cat
Is it true that, Man of the People, George Clooney doesn’t even live in the US.
zhena gogolia
@rikyrah: Merci beaucoup!
kwAwk
@Omnes Omnibus: My only schtick is to post opinions you disagree with.
zhena gogolia
@schrodingers_cat: Based on my reading of People, he spends a lot of time in his home on Lake Como. And in the UK.
SFBayAreaGal
@SomeRandomGuy: Thank you. I feel a concern troll is trolling some of the posters.
TBone
@Mike E: that’s not where I got that Comment of the Day. I got it at a site where there isn’t panic and infighting. Not much anyway. Feels good. The original commenter got it from there.
kwAwk
@SomeRandomGuy: Yes, that’s exactly what I think. Joe Biden is the Democratic Nominee to the Presidency of the United States. His job is to be the most popular dude in the great popularity contest call the election that is happening in November 2024.
Being a good President isn’t about being popular. Being a candidate in an election surely is.
Eolirin
@libarbarian: All of the data we have from actual elections, including 2022 and all the specials since suggests otherwise.
And given the crosstab problems…
I’m not sure I buy that younger people are actually going to start breaking for Trump all of a sudden.
Also, that that’s your take away to how Harris is being used as a surrogate when you’re complaining about how she’s not being well used as a surrogate is kind of telling. If I also point out that she’s going to a bunch of women’s rights and abortion rights groups will you also dismiss how important outreach to women is?
These are the groups we need to inspire to turn out for us. That’s where she’s being deployed. And effectively, and turning out large enthusiastic crowds.
Where would you like to move the goal post to now?
SFBayAreaGal
@Omnes Omnibus: Yup. I call them concern trolls
satby
@eclare: my parents generation was Joe’s. I grew up with all Joes and Janes. Trust me, if you think I’m salty*, those people are where I learned all of it. I’m just not a politician. I DGAF
*And I self censor so much before I post you wouldn’t believe.
kwAwk
@Sure Lurkalot: You guys need to figure out that Biden right now has two jobs. One is being Potus through Jan 2025 and the other is the candidate for the Democratic Party who is trying to be elected to be the President after Jan 2025.
Being good at one job doesn’t make you good at the other.
UncleEbeneezer
@satby: The most toxic/divisive threads in the past year (in no particular order):
1.) TransInclusion/WhiteFeminism
2.) Gaza
3.) BidenSoOld
Hard not to notice some usual suspects in all three…
Eolirin
@UncleEbeneezer: There was a big movement to try to draft Biden despite his refusal to get in due to Beau.
Other pretty nonsensical picks were getting bandied about too, like Oprah and Michelle Obama.
Sister Golden Bear
@libarbarian:
Game over! Game over man! FFS…
eclare
@satby:
I hope Joe has your saltiness. I bet he does.
tobie
@UncleEbeneezer: Shaiel Ben-Ephraim has great sources in the Israeli govt and is knowledgeable about military tactic and strategies. He can be testy when challenged but maybe that comes with the territory of being an analyst of Israeli politics. I like JewishWonk a lot. He’s a mensch and smart and has a unique perspective as a Belorussian immigrant to the US. Marc Zlochin is good for scouring UN reports and evaluating statistics. Fania Oz Salzberger has taken on the role of the conscience of the Israeli center-left.
The Thin Black Duke
I wish you guys would stop feeding the trolls.
Kay
@Eyeroller:
Nah. Democrats have a ton of polling. They’re running House and Senate races! Any (competitive) House race and any Senate race does polling. They just test Biden in there too. That’s what they’re responding to.
It’s why Elissa Slotkin said Biden is behind Trump in Michigan – she’s running so doing polling. Slotkin is known for being “data driven” which we used to think was good in a candidate but now no longer (apparently) do.
Bennett is probably looking at Dem House race polling in Colorado. Not zebras, horses. The ordinary explanation is the correct one – why are they concerned about polling? Because they have some and it’s bad. That’s why Ritchie Torres flipped. NY House polling.
Sister Golden Bear
@satby: I remember as well. Ugly doesn’t begin to describe it.
SomeRandomGuy
@UncleEbeneezer: Every annoying person is annoying for a different reason, but you should never assume a person is “the bad guy,” based on your assumptions of motivations.
I had many early discussions of proper dating behavior derailed because people simply didn’t believe I wanted to befriend, and have good times with, a woman, rather than trying to score.
Later, I learned that I’m not deserving of companionship, because, after all, I’m disabled, and it’s a horrible, horrible, thing to date someone when you’re disabled, because they might decide, some ten years later, that they hate being with you. Wow, and I’d just learned to trust that friendship wasn’t fickle, withdrawn in an instant. Thankfully, it was from the same people who told me I wasn’t trustworthy in matters of dating, because I could be confused by mixed signals. Only took a few years to get over it.
Anyway: if people engage, and seem sincere, help them understand why they’re getting dumped on. You can even do that with trolls, as a kind of shot over the bow.
Eyeroller
@The Thin Black Duke: They are getting pie! Lovely pie! And some sealion chow.
I never used the pie filter at all until recently. Just scrolled past. But can’t deal with all these sea lions.
geg6
@satby:
Same.
different-church-lady
@Sure Lurkalot: Okay, that’s just brilliant: “Here’s a bunch of good news for Biden, but even though I just said it, it still doesn’t exist because people like me are chasing the shiniest object ever.”
SomeRandomGuy
…because no President has ever sought a second term… after losing re-election… in the 21st century.
Sister Golden Bear
@The Thin Black Duke: Much as I enjoy tasty pasties, this post is giving me dis-beet-us. (And yes, I had a moment of weakness myself.)
Starve the trolls, concerning or just trolling.
eclare
@SomeRandomGuy:
What? That is awful, what your “friends” told you.
eclare
@Eyeroller:
Before today there was one pie cooling on the counter. Now there are five.
It was just driving me crazy for no point.
Kay
@Eyeroller:
I don’t know – people here used to know that Democrats poll in House and Senate races. Did you forget?
They do. That’s where they’re getting the worrisome poll numbers. From their own races and the pollsters they pay themselves.
different-church-lady
@SomeRandomGuy: People are shitty.
Some people are shitty in a particular way: if you have a psychological weakness, they’ll work that.
Put up with enough of that and eventually it will seem like everyone’s working you over.
In the end, it has a lot more to do with how shitty people are than your disability.
SomeRandomGuy
@kwAwk: give it up, kwwak. I don’t debate ducks.
Fair Economist
If we can’t defend Biden against a whisper campaign organized by RW media, we’ll have no chance against the whisper campaign against whoever gets nominated. Because the minute Joe stepped down, there would be an avalanche of stories about how decisively he proved his competence by holding more video interviews in 2 weeks than any other president, successfully chairing the NATO 75th anniversary conference, standing up against the Supreme Court legalizing bribery, taking action against Parkinson’s, etc., etc. Combined with endless innuendo about how whoever replaced him used palace intrigue that would shame a Sultan’s eunuch to get rid of the amazingly successful Biden and deprive the American people of their chance to re-elect a great President. Plus lots of innuendo about sexism and racism, because whoever replaces him will have an ethnic origin and a gender, and their ascent will be taken as proof the party leadership had it in for whatever groups they weren’t a member of.
different-church-lady
@Kay: I don’t doubt they’re getting bad polling numbers. What I can’t figure out is how they’re coming to the conclusion that making it worse is going to make it better.
different-church-lady
@Fair Economist: I
CHRIST ALMIGHTY, WHY DO WE HAVE TO EXPLAIN THIS?
tam1MI
What’s really hilarious about the bedwetting trolls here is that their, “Forget about the votes that people cast in good faith! Nothing is official until the convention!” argument is the exact same logic the January 7 insurrectionists used to try to keep the House of Representatives from certifying the vote.
Kay
@different-church-lady:
Because they disagree with you with what will “make it better”. It’s really that simple.
The Thin Black Duke
Ding ding ding.
Bupalos
I listened to the Tim Miller thing while I cleaned the fridge. I know folks here are super suspicious of Ezra Klein. I don’t necessarily give him credit for judgement, but there’s not really any question that he’s got wide D connections. And he’s claiming that not a single Dem pol or staffer he’s talked to thinks Biden has any electoral chance. Zip, zero, nada. Which goes WAY beyond what I expected or my own pessimistic beliefs about Biden’s chances. It’s partly an analysis that pols even don’t see any theory of victory after the debate, that the kind of engagement and contrast with Trump that was supposed to happen at the debate was the theory of victory and it turned into a theory of worse defeat…and no one has any plan B. Then a kicker that a bunch of them don’t have a plan B because they think coming up with one and sticking their head up is more damaging than Trump winning.
He’s basically saying the situation as D pols see it is way more dire than it appears. Which would explain top fundraisers doing nuclear op-eds or Pelosi pretending she didn’t hear Joe make a decision. Folks getting apoplectic aren’t wrong that this whole thing has clearly become damaging, yet Pelosi basically refused to let AOC shut the door, which I really thought made the most sense.
different-church-lady
@Kay: I’m pretty darn sure that making public statements of hopelessness will not make it better, no matter what one thinks the best actual course of action is.
(ETA: I am one of the few who will admit I don’t know what the best course of action is.)
Eyeroller
@Kay: It’s not really that unusual for a President to run behind the House and Senate candidates in a situation like this. Usually not by so much, but far from unprecedented. It’s the “I hate everybody else but love my own <whatever>” effect.
If it had anything at all to do with Biden it was far more likely due to the freakout and not the debate. As has been stated by multiple people many times, if you panic and scream and cry (like e.g. Bennet) and start throwing people under the bus, you look weak and that’s not appealing to voters. Discourages our base and encourages theirs. There is evidence for that happening BTW. Normies were not alarmed by Biden’s debate until everybody started screaming about it. Took a while for our base to notice the assault was insanely over the top and now they’re mad.
Kay
@different-church-lady:
What’s more, they’re getting, specifically, bad BIDEN numbers. Schlotkin says she’s even in her race. She says Biden is behind. It isn’t irrational or baseless or that they all have been somehow tricked by Russia or the NYTimes or disloyal Democrats. They’re relying on what they always rely on, which is polling.
different-church-lady
@Kay: Okay. I’m not arguing the polling. I’m saying, YOU DON’T HIGHLIGHT THAT.
Geminid
@Bupalos: Ezra Klein staked put a Biden-must-go position early on. I do not trust him to report objectively on this matter. Maybe someone else, but not Klein or the friends he is calling.
delphinium
@different-church-lady:
That is what I’m not getting either. Is there a lot of data out there that says shitting on your candidate at the worst possible time is a better message that inspires voters? Seems it runs the other way- voters don’t like weak-willed candidates who panic about their party. If they are so worried about polls, maybe the better thing to do is to get out there and campaign on all the great things the Dems have done over the last 3-1/2 years rather than continue to bash Biden.
ColoradoGuy
@Sister Golden Bear: Yep, I got a “partially true” banner on Facebook five days after posting the graphic summarizing Project 2025 point-by-point. So I took it down and am awaiting some BJ advice on working around this latest FB manipulation.
different-church-lady
@ColoradoGuy: Just replace it with the Project 2025 mission statement and the filter will let it through clean.
Kay
@Eyeroller:
I disagree. You’re all acting as if Biden was leading prior the debate. It’s not true. Biden has been behind this entire time and he’s BURNING money. He’s spending a ton on ads just to stay at -2. What happens when Trump starts running ads?
You all know how far up Biden was in 2020. Between 6 and 8. Trump didn’t underperform polling in 2020- he overperformed.
But I’ll let you go now. I really don’t want to get into it with the BJ hive mind and the accusations and conspiracy theories and shit. It doesn’t matter.
I just wanted to say that of course Democrats have polling. They have a ton. They’re not looking at the publicly released generic ballot to make these decisions.
Eyeroller
@delphinium: If we had been an even somewhat united party, we would have parried with “Sure, Joe had a bad night. Did you hear the crazy things Trump said?” And “It’s just one debate. Look at all the great stuff Biden has accomplished. Have you heard about Trump’s plan for dictatorship?” Change the goddamn subject and go on offense. Instead we get the defensive crouch, wound our own candidate, and help to keep the fire going for weeks longer than it should have.
different-church-lady
@Eyeroller:
eclare
@tam1MI:
Yep. First RWNJ’s try to cancel my vote, now Democrats try to cancel my vote.
janesays
1968 and 1952 – Harry Truman was grandfathered out of the 22nd Amendment, so he was free to run again in 1952 despite having served nearly two full terms. He decided not to seek re-election in March 1952, Adlai Stephenson became the nominee, and Democrats lost the White House.
And while they aren’t directly analogous, I think there are important lessons to be drawn from 1976, 1980, and 1988, as well – three sitting presidents up for re-election (technically Ford wasn’t seeking re-election since he was never elected in the first place), all three faced primary challenges that indicated deep disunity within their own parties, and while all three survived their primary challenges, they all went on to lose their general elections.
Point is, we’ve got plenty of history indicating that when numerous members of a political party get behind serious efforts to get the incumbent president who is a member of their own party off the November ballot, it ALWAYS ends in disaster.
It may be true that Biden is toast. I completely disagree with that sentiment, but it’s silly to pretend like we’re anywhere near having this thing locked down – there is a fairly decent chance that Donald Trump will be elected president in November. That said, while I know that Biden’s poll numbers are less than encouraging and I know that some sort of major course correction needs to happen to win this election, I remain absolutely unconvinced that replacing our presumptive nominee less than four months before the election is a remotely sound strategy, given that it has a 0% success rate in any of our lifetimes. Maybe we would be better off if Kamala Harris were to become the presumptive nominee tomorrow, I don’t know. What I do know is that nobody has figured out how to replace an incumbent president up for re-election with a different candidate from the same party who then goes on to win, because it has never happened in any of our lifetimes. The only two times in American history in which the gambit worked were 1880 and 1928, and in both cases the sitting president who could have sought another term never launched a re-election campaign and publicly indicated they had no plans to seek another term more than a year before the election.
If somebody can provide some solid evidence indicating that the strategy of replacing our presumptive nominee less than four months before the election will give us better odds of keeping Trump out of the White House, despite similar strategies never, ever, ever having worked at any point in American history, I’m all ears. But if all you’ve got is a gut feeling, a “vibe”, or you’ve just spent far too much time listening to talking heads on CNN and MSNBC drone on incessantly about Biden’s supposed unelectability and you’ve let yourself get sucked in to the despair, maybe you should go touch some grass.
eclare
@delphinium:
Thank you
Kay
@different-church-lady:
Well, what are they supposed to do? They have what they consider very bad polling – should they ignore it? We said Trump was an existential threat to this country. If they’re convinced Biden will lose should they just sit down and shut up or do what they can to (they believe) save the country? Why in Gods name would they kneecap their own winning candidate? That doesn’t make any sense.
different-church-lady
@Kay: Maybe, um, put together a group to go to Biden and convince him he’s lost support behind the scenes?
Maybe, um, not having a public freak out that plays right into your enemy’s attack plan?
eclare
@janesays:
Plus look at the precedent it sets if we throw Joe overboard. What happens the next time the FTFNYT and Hollywood decide that they don’t like a Democrat? We’ve proven all they have to do is print up some doom and gloom stories, and he or she is out.
Ruckus
@Soprano2:
A 4 lb turd would be better…. Lasts longer, likely tastes worse (I have no idea, just supposing….) and likely burns the grass on top the grave. I’ve been a boss in a couple of places and while there is effort required to be the boss it isn’t that difficult. Treat EVERYONE like you’d like to be treated. Help those who are less than fully skilled at whatever learn more. And DO NOT BE AN ASSHOLE.
This is your friendly reminder from a past boss, treat people well, it works better and fire the person that just refuses to do better. Most jobs are learnable, teach rather than control. It works better, the employees are far happier and the output is improved. It’s a win-win all around. Thankfully I learned that the easy way when I was rather young and it has stood the test of time over a fair bit of testing, locations and jobs.
Eyeroller
@different-church-lady: I’ll just repeat that there is evidence that the extremely public panic is what did at least most of the damage, not the debate itself. Upsetting and depressing your base is not a way to get good polls.
Ruckus
@UncleEbeneezer:
Truly the stupidest shit I’ve ever seen.
Maybe it was because I was in the military for 3 1/2 yrs during a war, but that isn’t even close to the stupidest shit I’ve seen. You are right though, it is at the high end of majorly stupid.
tam1MI
@Kay: Well, what are they supposed to do?
Not attempting to disenfranchise 13 million voters from your own party would be a good start.
delphinium
@Kay: They could act like they have faith in their own policies and accomplishments for one and keep iterating how awful a second-term Trump will be. But I fail to see how running to the press every day with some new concern helps us. The media is not on our side and obviously have their thumbs on the scale for Trump. So why not at least stop that behavior-it accomplishes nothing. If they decide to switch candidates, then go to the press/public then and explain the exact reasons why, then move on.
TooManyJens
@different-church-lady: CHRIST, this.
Quiltingfool
@The Thin Black Duke: I wish troll feeding would stop, too. I don’t pie, I just do a scroll by. I don’t need the negativity.
I am grateful for your comments! And Rickyrah too! I NEVER do a scroll by when I see your nym.
You know, I haven’t seen Frankensteinbeck lately. I think he has had enough…like “Lord, give me patience or an unregistered handgun!” (quoted from a Mike and Molly episode). If he’s lurking, I miss his comments but I get why he’s not around right now.
MagdaInBlack
I just cannot handle the hysteria here anymore
UncleEbeneezer
@Ruckus: I hear that’s the brilliance of Catch-22, the novel.
Ruckus
@UncleEbeneezer:
Yes, yes it is. Hadn’t thought about it in that way, mainly because it’s been a while since I read Catch-22 the last time. My copy is all dog eared but maybe I should read it again. A good life lesson. My copy was copyrighted in 1963.
Ruckus
@Quiltingfool:
I have very few in the pie filter but I do have some, it really is a valuable tool to help with the sanity and blood pressure. I cleaned it out a while back because I’d bet that I wasn’t the only one putting some of the same in there because they didn’t comment any longer. It doesn’t seem to take many doing so to ruin their fun of getting attention by attempting to piss off everyone. I come here and have been for a very long time because it is an interesting bit of the modern world. To actually discuss things, to see how many feel similar to what I feel about many parts of life, it gives one hope for humanity. Which we all need on occasion…..
Fair Economist
@Eyeroller: Yes. A bad debate performance didn’t move the polls.
Weeks of Democrats saying Biden isn’t fit to be President *does*. And, shockingly, it hurts their own polling! Because it makes Democrats want to not vote.
Subsole
@Sister Golden Bear:
See, I took all this as
“Boy, Joe, real shame how we’ve been treating you. Play ball, give us juicy leaks and interviews, and we might treat ya better. We’re scared of Tromp too, y’know. We only hit y’all ’cause we love ya’.”
Maybe I am reading too much into it. But these are not stupid people. Foolish, vain, petty and vapid. But stupid? No, no I’m pretty sure they know what building they go to work in.
Bill Arnold
Lawrence O’Donnell made me smile with this: (20:58) That … lying psychopath
Subsole
@Cacti:
This person said they are going to chuckle and say “I told you so” when Trump wins, back when they were pretending to give a shit about Palestinians.
Evaluate accordingly.
SomeRandomGuy
@eclare: Wasn’t as bad as it sounded – it was mostly innocent me learning what women had to watch out for. It still didn’t make a lot of sense, because I saw them discussing situations I’d been in, and I knew some of their solutions weren’t “right” because I knew it involved dangers that weren’t present.
It was only later, when I met some real assholes, that some of what they said made more sense. “Oh, so *that* is why they seemed a bit sneaky and suspicious – because some guys will engage in sexual assault, and *insist* it was all a misunderstanding.
(If you’re a guy, and didn’t realize that, it’s true. It’s also far, far, more common than you likely imagine.)
Anyway: I might well have looked like an early incel-troll to them, but part of it might well be that I was asking questions that no one would ordinarily ask. *That* is one of the things that is hard – when perspective is so different, there’s no Rosetta Stone that allows perfect communication. And people who are uncomfortable enough about stuff like “who even *asks* that?” aren’t always kind.
Cacti
@Ruckus: Of course 75 is old. Average life expectancy in the US is 77.5. Male life expectancy is about 74.8.
Cacti
@Subsole: I never said I was going to chuckle.
Chris Johnson
@Kay: HOW does Trump start running ads when he spends all the money on his own legal bills or sending it back to Putin? How does he function in any normal sense when multiple RNCs of different states are literally broke and torn up with internal battles?
SomeRandomGuy
@Kay: One of the frustrating things for everyone is, polls are not good predictors of the election, and they haven’t been for a long time.
Biden isn’t trying to win polls – he’s trying to win the general election.
Same thing. Polls are bad, while people are just thinking “I like how Trump flaps his yap, I’ll tell the pollster I’ll vote for him.”
Come November 5th, how many Trump glitches will have occurred? A fuckton.
How much more criminal evidence is going to come out against Trump? A fuckton.
How many more Republicans are going to agonize and finally say “Trump must not win?” A few. (Hey, I’m not stupid.)
Trump is a criminal, an idiot, and supremely overconfident. He will fuck up.
So: no, there’s no need for course correction – the course Biden is on *may* have to change, depending, but we know there will be an unending negative stream about Trump, because HE IS TRUMP.
Or, convince me there’s a need. Point to me what Biden is doing, besides being an old man with a stutter and a lot of fake friends, that shows something terrible is coming, something far worse for him, than, e.g., the constant babbling criminality under greasepaint that is TFG.
Why are you so much more sure something bad will happen for Biden, than for Trump? THINK. Who would you rather be? Who would you rather have as a friend? Who would you rather run the nation?
Hey, here’ s a game, or, it would be a game if this was a class or discussion group. You want to ditch Biden? Good – game out the scenario of Biden *staying*, and why you think he has the actual advantage over Trump. Then, informed by your desire to get rid of him, *defend* him. Say why he should stick around, not because you’re sure of it, but because you want to see how that idea *feels* if you accept it for a bit.
See if you can convince yourself, or others, of a difference in your viewpoint.
Because one thing is for sure: unless you can think about why both sides might have feelings, you can’t account for them.
Don’t get me wrong: I’ll mock fear by calling out “old man cooties” in hopes people start talking actual *fears* rather than just “disastrous debate,” but that’s because I demand more meatiness in my thoughts. If what you say can be tossed aside as “yeah, yeah, old man cooties,” you’re really not thinking too effectively.
rebelsdad (aka texasboyshaun)
Rutgers students get a free NYT subscription. That’s the only business they get from me.
Chris Johnson
@Subsole: I am not reading their trash, but I am very interested in whether it’s a ‘briar patch’. Is it an editorial on ‘oooh look, Trump is so dangerous because he is so SMART and powerful and he’ll march on a road of bones and don’t you agree his power is simply insurmountable? Also bad for some reason. Y’know, if you resist’
Is it one of those? It wouldn’t be the first time I saw a lot of Kremlin propaganda spun as ‘isn’t it awful how invincible the evildoer is?’
tam1MI
Here in Michigan, we have a Congressional primary coming up on August 6. Hillary Scholten, running for the House of Representatives in the 3rd District, has joined the backstabber caucus trying to oust Joe Biden and disenfranchise the Democrats who voted for him. She has a challenger by the name of Salim Al-Shatel. You can donate to his campaign here. Send a message to the assholes in the only language they understand.
Subsole
@cain: Also, If you are on soc-med, do not engage. Don’t click, don’t argue.
Eyeroller
@Cacti: I will once again try to point out that life expectancy at birth, which is what most of us think is “life expectancy,” is not the same thing as life expectancy at a particular age. The older you get, the longer your life expectancy, because you’ve outlived things that tend to kill younger people. I don’t have the program from the SSA handy right now, but at age 81 your life expectancy is at least several more years. As you age life expectancy continues to increase for a surprisingly long time (though of course total expected remaining years decreases).
Cacti
@Eyeroller: Of all males who make it to age 80, only 30% will live to see age 90.
No matter how you slice it, by age 75, the substantial majority of your life is behind, not ahead of you. 75 is old.
Bobby Thomson
“Don’t push back” is the wrong message and not at all what Klain is saying. That’s how Kerry and Clinton lost. Pivoting is fine, but you MUST confront all these bad faith actors and bloody them.
Elizabelle
@Bobby Thomson: yes indeed
SomeRandomGuy
@Cacti: But “old” is irrelevant – no one gives a flying fornication at a fried food, flying angularly and linearly, about “old” per se.
Yes, 75 is old. Some Republicans pointed out “Covid-19 is killing people who are long past their ‘best before’ date, so, it’s not like it’s *bad*.” It’s a pretty horrifying question, don’t you agree?
Anyway: are you joining them, with “75 is old”?
No one is discussing “old, as per the actuarial charts”. They’re talking about “old = stupid dumb fuck”. They just aren’t very honest about it.
mrmoshpotato
The NYT can suck a dead horse’s rotting asshole, but you all knew that.
mrmoshpotato
Why is Nancy being so chickenshit about this?
KRK
@Eolirin:
I’m reading the day’s posts late on the west coast so this is a very dead thread, but just wanted to thank you for saying this.