Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

Not rolling over. fuck you, make me.

We still have time to mess this up!

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

The press swings at every pitch, we don’t have to.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

Republicans do not trust women.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 869: Russia’s Wetwork Program

War for Ukraine Day 869: Russia’s Wetwork Program

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A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing excellently after her chemo treatment on Monday. There is no noticeable side effects so far. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I have had a very, very long day. So I’m going to keep tonight short(ish).

As I start writing tonight’s update – 7:45 PM EDT – all of northern central and central Ukraine are under air raid alert. The air raid alert tracker maps are not showing any Russian aviation up, so these are likely the result of drones being detected aloft.

Earlier today, however, much of Ukraine was under the threat of Russian missiles.

While President Zelenskyy did address the NATO Council today, no video has been posted. Nor is there a video address posted for today.

Earlier today, CNN broke the news, at least in the US, that Russia had targeted the head of Germany’s Rhienmetall, as well as the leaders of a number of other European arms manufacturers for assassination.

CNN — US intelligence discovered earlier this year that the Russian government planned to assassinate the chief executive of a powerful German arms manufacturer that has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, according to five US and western officials familiar with the episode.

The plot was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort, these sources said. The plan to kill Armin Papperger, a white-haired goliath who has led the German manufacturing charge in support of Kyiv, was the most mature.

When the Americans learned of the effort, they informed Germany, whose security services were then able to protect Papperger and foil the plot. A high-level German government official confirmed that Berlin was warned about the plot by the US.

For more than six months, Russia has been carrying out a sabotage campaign across Europe, largely by proxy. It has recruited local amateurs for everything from arson attacks on warehouses linked to arms for Ukraine to petty acts of vandalism — all designed to stymie the flow of weapons from the West to Ukraine and blunt public support for Kyiv.

But the intelligence suggesting that Russia was willing to assassinate private citizens underlined to Western officials just how far Moscow was willing to go in a parallel shadow war it is waging across the west.

Papperger was an obvious target: His company, Rheinmetall, is the largest and most successful German manufacturer of the vital 155mm artillery shells that have become the make-or-break weapon in Ukraine’s grinding war of attrition. The company is opening an armored vehicle plant inside of Ukraine in the coming weeks, an effort that one source familiar with the intelligence said was deeply concerning to Russia. After a series of gains earlier this year, Moscow’s war effort has once again stalled amid redoubled Ukrainian defenses and punishing losses in personnel.

The series of plots, not previously reported, helps explain the increasingly strident warnings from NATO officials about the seriousness of the sabotage campaign — one that some senior officials believe risks crossing the threshold into armed conflict in eastern Europe.

“We’re seeing sabotage, we’re seeing assassination plots, we’re seeing arson. We’re seeing things that have a cost in human lives,” a senior NATO official told reporters on Tuesday. “I believe very much that we’re seeing a campaign of covert sabotage activities from Russia that have strategic consequences.”

The National Security Council declined to comment on the existence of the Russian plot and the US warning to Germany. But, NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement, “Russia’s intensifying campaign of subversion is something that we are taking extremely seriously and have been intently focused on over the past few months.

“The United States has been discussing this issue with our NATO Allies, and we are actively working together to expose and disrupt these activities,” she said. “We have also been clear that Russia’s actions will not deter Allies from continuing to support Ukraine.”

German officials declined to comment on the specifics of CNN’s reporting. But speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington on Thursday, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said it shows how Russia is “waging a hybrid war of aggression” on European allies.

“We have seen that there have been attacks on factories. And this underlines once again that we as Europeans must protect ourselves as best we can and not be naive,” Baerbock said.

In a separate statement sent to CNN, the German Interior Ministry said that Berlin “will not be intimidated by the Russian threats,” emphasizing that they are fundamentally aimed at “undermining the support of Germany and our partners for Ukraine in its defense against the Russian war of aggression.”

A spokesman for Rheinmetall, Oliver Hoffman, declined to comment.

“The necessary measures are always taken in regular consultation with the security authorities,” Hoffman said.

CNN has asked the Russian embassy in Washington for comment.

If I were CNN, which I’m thankfully not, I would not hold my breath waiting for that comment.

More at the link, more on this after the jump.

It is important to remember that this isn’t just something that Russia just came up with. Rather, it has been going on for a while now as one line of effort in Russia’s ongoing world war against the US, the EU, and NATO.

The Russian are not only running lines of effort against their adversaries, but also against themselves. Sergey Radenko brings us the details via the Thread Reader App:

This here is pretty entertaining (and I have never seen anything like this). Russia’s foreign intelligence (SVR) publishes fake “declassified” reports by its rezidenty in Kyiv, Paris, Riga, and Washington who are identified as “Aleks,” “Feliks,” “Diaz,” “Stone,” and Nora. 
These fake reports promote conspiracy theories like one here that claims that the Americans are secretly hiring Latin American criminals to fight in Ukraine.Image
Why do I say it’s quite unprecedented? The Russian intelligence have previously faked documents for public consumption (they do it regularly, it’s a trademark). Consider the Tanaka memorandum etc etc. But I don’t think they have ever faked their own documents. 
The primary audience is obviously Russian speaking conspiracy theorists in Russia and abroad, but not only. I would not be surprised if this garbage is picked up and spread by pro-Russian bot networks, especially in the Global South. 
This is highly stupid and probably not worth writing a thread about but here I go anyway. Sigh. Not linking to the original SVR article in order to minimize clicks. The f****s don’t deserve it. 

Here are President Zelenskyy’s thoughts on how the NATO summit is going so far via the Thread Reader app.

Today, I addressed the NATO-Ukraine Council. Our fight is not just about Ukraine defending against Russia’s full-scale aggression, but about protecting the rules-based world order.Image
We do not allow wars of aggression to benefit the aggressor. This is why this Alliance was created – to make sure that those who wage a criminal war against another nation will lose. When our decisions are strong, we ensure the irreversibility of this course. 
I am grateful for every air defense system that works to save the lives of our people. I am grateful for the decision on new Patriots and other air defense systems for Ukraine. These systems need to be delivered to Ukraine as soon as possible. 
We must protect all our cities. And our partners can help with this. Every announced military package must be delivered to the front as quickly as possible. When this happens, Putin fails – and this is vital. 
I am grateful for the permission given to us to strike Russian territory along our border. Thanks to this decision and the courage of our soldiers, we thwarted the Russian offensive on Kharkiv. HIMARS hit military targets near the border, burning Putin’s calculations. 
ATACMS, SCALPs, and Storm Shadows would be even more effective if we could hit Russian military airfields from which planes carrying the glided bombs take off. Russia is launching about 3,500 such bombs every month. 
It is only fair to destroy those military bases that are attacking us and killing our people. Each of you would defend yourselves in the same way. We need this permission from our partners, and most importantly – from the United States. 
We need a sufficient number of F-16s. Russia uses about 300 combat aircraft; we need at least half of that. Training missions for pilots must expand. 
How many years will we wait for half of 300 aircraft at the current speed of supply and training? The war shouldn’t last that long. And in the case of the F-16s, it is not up to us. 
I’m grateful for the NATO-Ukraine Council, created to make our path to the Alliance visible. And the real ticket for Ukraine to join NATO is a just end to this war. Without Ukraine in NATO, European security will never be complete. 
Ukraine outside of the Alliance is a temptation for Russia to try aggression again and again, to become an invader, to go into Ukraine and other countries. That is why all formats of our cooperation, including this one, should be a bridge to Ukraine’s victory in this war. 
Our victory should become a bridge to lasting peace for all of Europe. All this must be based on one strong word – invitation. Ukraine deserves an invitation to NATO. This certainty will irreversibly become the Alliance’s new, strong pillar. Only strong decisions make winners. 

Here’s Peskov’s response to the news about the stormshadows.

More seriously, I want to focus/refocus everyone on President Zelenskyy’s statements about the provision of F-16s and the training of the pilots and crews. President Zelenskyy’s statements above contradict what we heard from Assistant to the President – National Security Advisor (APNSA) Jake Sullivan yesterday. Only one of these statements can be true. Additionally, Ukraine is supposed to get 12 F-16s sometime between now and the Fall. Another batch, of indeterminate number, in 2025. And then more/the rest sometime in 2026. But the total is going to be somewhere between 60 and 70, not the 150 that President Zelenskyy is the minimum required number. This is, of course, dependent on Biden being reelected as the US approval for allies and partners to to transfer them to Ukraine, as well as the US-Ukraine bilateral security agreement is only US approval for the transfers and a US agreement with Ukraine as long as a Democrat is in the White House.

Michael Korfman has just gotten back from another battle field visit in Ukraine. Here is his assessment of where things stands via the Thread Reader App:

Thoughts following a recent field study in Ukraine. Ukraine faces difficult months of fighting ahead, but the situation at the front is better than it was this spring. More worrisome is the state of Ukraine’s air defense, and the damage from Russian strikes to the power grid. 1/ 
Ukraine’s manpower, fortifications, and ammunition situation is steadily improving. Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk, and likely to make further gains, but they have not been able to exploit the Kharkiv offensive into a major breakthrough. 2/ 
The Kharkiv front has stabilized, with the overall correlation of forces not favorable to Moscow there. Russian operations are focused on the following directions: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Ocheretyne-Pokrovsk, and to a lesser extent Kupyansk. 3/ 
Despite the improved outlook, rectifying manpower deficits will take time. Russian forces are likely to keep advancing over the coming months, especially in Donetsk. The next 2 months will be especially difficult. 4/ 
A change in US policy on weapons employment enabled Ukraine to push Russian S-300s, used to bombard the city, away from Kharkiv. This bought the city breathing space, and forced Russia to make adjustments, although the offensive had already culminated by that point. 5/ 
Addressing manpower gaps remains a priority for Ukraine, but the leading problem is increasingly air defense, both short range systems to cover the front line, and long-range air defense to defend cities, critical infrastructure, and rear areas. 6/ 
Ukraine is very low on ammunition for legacy Soviet systems, whereas Russian drone and missile production rates have increased significantly. A deficit of air defense has led to pervasive Russian UAS reconnaissance behind the front line and increased success rates in strikes. 7/ 
This has a pernicious effect, suppressing artillery, enabling Russian dynamic targeting in the rear, and makes forward deploy long-range air defense a high risk proposition. AFU units are pursuing novel counters, such as interceptor FPV drones, but need scalable solutions. 8/ 
Troops arm themselves with spectrum analyzers to detect signals from Zala, Orlan, and Supercam UAS types. Persistent Russian ISR behind the front lines is a growing challenge, especially since there will be less cover to conceal positions come winter. 9/ 
Russian glide bomb (UMPK/UMPB) strikes have become more accurate, and from greater ranges. They destroy entire positions, and are more psychologically impactful than artillery. Glide bombs level structures in cities that would take days of artillery fire to destroy. 10/ 
The promise of additional Patriot batteries, NASAMS, and Hawks, plus rerouting of missile exports to Ukraine can make a big difference this year. That said, pushing Patriot batteries forward to tackle Russian air strikes will be risky if they cannot themselves be protected. 11/ 
Western munitions have reduced the fires disparity. At Kharkiv there is relative parity of 1:1, elsewhere 5:1 and declining. Though there are still issues with having the right charges, forcing Ukrainian artillery to fire closer to the front line. 12/ 
After the passage of new mobilization laws, Ukraine’s first month of increased mobilization shows significantly higher intake of men. There is a lag effect, mobilized personnel need to receive training, before they are available to refill formations. 13/ 
The number of volunteers (as a share of those mobilized) has also increased. Ukraine’s MoD is working to revamp the image of service, opening recruitment centers, allowing brigades to advertise, and offering volunteers options to choose their unit. 14/ 
While Ukraine works on improving basic training at home, the West will need to help with collective training abroad. Added manpower can stabilize the front line this fall, expanding existing units, and filling out new brigades to enable rotation. 15/ 
The West must also come through with equipment packages to replace losses and kit out new units, otherwise these will be mostly infantry, or at best motorized brigades. Ukrainian units need more M-113s, Bradleys, and basic protected mobility. 16/ 
The Kharkiv offensive did not create the length or depth of buffer Russia sought, but it did pull in Ukrainian reserves to stabilize that front. Consequently, Ukraine’s forces are currently stretched thin, and lateral shifts of units can open gaps. 17/ 
However, Russian forces have struggled to conduct operations at scale, or overcome well prepared defenses. Most of the assaults employ smaller elements of assault groups and detachments. These vary, sometimes 8-15 men, but in cases have dwindled to 4-6 men. 18/ 
Russian forces alternate between mechanized, light vehicle, and dismounted infantry attacks depending on availability of equipment. Some units increasingly employ motorcycles, and ATVs. This is partly reduce equipment losses, but also due to a general inability to overcome traditional prepared defenses, covered by pervasive reconnaissance, and strike UAS. 19/ 
These tactics can yield incremental gains, but they are poorly suited to achieving operationally significant breakthroughs. Larger assaults have proven costly to Russian forces, which cannot afford sustained equipment losses of the kind seen earlier in Avdiivka. 20/ 
The main challenge for Ukraine moving forward is Russia’s strike campaign. While Shahed type drones have become increasingly easy to intercept, Russian air strikes have become more sophisticated, and Russian missile production rates have notably increased compared with 2022. 21/ 
Russian strikes have crippled much of Ukraine’s non-nuclear electricity generation. In the summer Ukraine has been getting by thanks to solar energy, with shut offs at night, but looking at expected gigawatt output vs demand, the country faces its hardest winter yet. 22/ 

Ukraine needs ~16GW this winter, optimistically it will be able to produce 12GW. Getting there will require a combination of increased imports, and numerous gas units in the MW range. More details can be found in articles such as this one here: 23/

Although Ukraine is likely to stabilize the front line, addressing shortages of air defense, power generation, and improving Ukraine’s own strike capability should be a priority for the West as it may prove much more significant for the trajectory of this war. 24/ 

Norway:

Lithuania:

Canada:

Denmark:

Holland:

The Netherlands is purchasing more than €300 million worth of ammunition for the F-16s.

We are grateful to our Dutch friends and partners from @defensie for this important decision.
Thank you for your co-leadership in the Air Force Capability Coalition and the previously announced decision to donate 24 Dutch F-16s to Ukraine.

F-16s will definitely strengthen the defense of our cities and the capabilities of 🇺🇦 defense forces in the air.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱

The US:

Estonia:

“But the war in Ukraine and our response to it also determine whether NATO is credible. Whether it is also acting as deterrence for Russia. Why we don’t have a war in NATO countries is because Russia is not taking up that fight. Why Ukraine is having this war is because they are in the gray zone. They are not under NATO’s umbrella,” – Kaja Kallas.

@kajakallas is convinced that Ukraine should become a member of NATO if the Alliance wants to get rid of conflicts and “gray zones” in Europe.

Kharkiv:

In two months (since May 10, when the Russian offensive on Kharkiv began), Russians killed 125 civilians, including 4 children, in Kharkiv region with missile and bomb attacks.

772 people, including 42 children, were injured – head of Kharkiv region police via Suspilne.

Evacuation of civilian population continues.

Russia strikes Ukraine from its own territory. Russians use a large number of airfields. They have airfields in Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Rostov regions. Not all of them are adapted for the use of strategic aircraft. For example, for Tu-22M3 or Tu-95MS aircraft, which are used to launch long-range Kh-101 and Kh-22 missiles, there is a limited number of airfields.

These airfields are Engels-2, Ukrainka (located several thousand kilometers from the border with Ukraine), Olenya and others.

‼️ These airfields are located several thousand kilometers from the border with Ukraine. If they are destroyed, the number of Russian attacks on Ukraine will drop dramatically. These are legitimate military targets for Ukraine.

Currently, Ukraine has restrictions on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory. The basic position on the use of weapons is the same – they can only be used in close range to Ukrainian internationally recognized borders.

Ukrainian Allies continue to search for a formula so that they are not accused of a direct attack on the Russian Federation. In fact, none of those who have transferred long-range weapons to Ukraine have yet clearly stated: “there are no restrictions except for international humanitarian law”.

The option of closing the skies over Ukraine was discussed, but it was also perceived as escalation.

Increasing Ukrainian air defense capabilities is an extremely necessary and overdue step. But this process is protracted, and the volumes of what we receive are insufficient. The logistics are such that it takes months to actually deliver what was promised. During this time, Russians will primarily destroy the remnants of Ukrainian energy system and the objects that could be protected otherwise.

Zuhres, Donetsk Oblast:

8 more Ukrainian children have been returned home to Ukraine:

“They beat me so hard that I started to lose consciousness. They tore people’s nails off, electrocuted, tortured and kept people in cages.”

Eight more children from the occupied territories have been returned to Ukraine. According to the Save Ukraine charity organization, children from 7 to 17 years old from the occupied part of Kherson and Donetsk regions are among them.

In total, the Save Ukraine team managed to rescue 405 children from Russia and the temporarily occupied territories.

📹: Save Ukraine

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

16Comments

  1. 1.

    Shalimar

    Russia is at war with us.  Trump is on Russia’s side.  If anything costs Biden the election, it will be his administration’s unwillingness to fight back.

  2. 2.

    Urza

    Ok stupid question.  How is organized sabotage and assassination, granted not against leaders, but really how is this not an act of war against NATO?

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Urza: It is an ongoing line of effort directed against the EU in a campaign using all elements of Russian national power to help to achieve Putin’s objective of weakening the EU, thereby weakening NATO, and, as a result, isolating Ukraine from its EU and NATO support.

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    “For a while now”? I know you know this, Adam, but it’s more like a century. People need to read Pavel Sudoplatov’s memoir/autobiography. The elimination of enemies of the state, wherever they are and by whatever means, is a moral imperative. 1920’s, 2020’s, nothing has changed in the russian mindset. Konovalets, Trotsky, Litvinenko, Politkovskaya, Nemtsov, all the same.

  6. 6.

    BretH

    For some reason tonight the news that Rosie is doing well cheers me up so much. I suppose you’ll be commenting at some point about the rumor or whatever about the Russia airman who gave away secrets because of shame.

  8. 8.

    Urza

    @Adam L Silverman: I realize it takes the old people in governments awhile to catch up.  But seriously there are so many more methods of conflict now and we need to start talking about them as war, conflicts or something and at least do proportionate response.  Else how do democracies survive.

  9. 9.

    wjca

    President Zelenskyy’s statements above contradict what we heard from Assistant to the President – National Security Advisor (APNSA) Jake Sullivan yesterday. Only one of these statements can be true.

    It may be excessive optimism on my part, but I’m hoping that it’s Sullivan who has got it wrong.  (Doesn’t really matter why.  Ignorance. “Plausible Deniability.” Whatever.)

  12. 12.

    slybrarian

    Thanks, Adam.

    The thing with Rheinmetal seems like such a weird risk to even consider, and feels like it displays a fundamental misunderstanding of how companies like that are organized. Taking out the CEO may cause some brief disruption but it’s not like Rheinmetal is selling to Ukraine for some personal ideological reason. They’re paying money (or their sponsors are) and so the company sells to them, and the CEO is readily replaceable. I wonder if a lot of Russian leadership just doesn’t understand in their guts that it’s not one of their own oligarch-run quasi-monopolies where the leadership is synonymous with the company.

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT: The least surprising development:

    Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing
    Barak Ravid

    More reporting from Barak Ravid:

    Barak Ravid
    @BarakRavid

    “Netanyahu gave these tough demands because he is trying to use Hamas’ weakness to get as much as he can out of the negotiations. But there is a risk that he will go too far and the negotiations collapse,” an Israeli official involved in the talks told me

    Not sure I would take the claims of an anonymous Israeli official at face value. It could just be code that Bibi wants to push hard enough that Hamas’ military wing eventually balks & gets the blame for the breakdown in negotiations, but not so hard that he gets the blame for the collapse of talks.

    Haaretz has more on Bibi’s cynical plays:

    How Netanyahu Has Systematically Foiled Talks to Release Hostages From Hamas Captivity
    Michael Hauser Tov
    Jul 10, 2024 | 20:09

  14. 14.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT: the Middle East Eye reporting on the reset of Sino-Turkish relations after of several years of chill, primarily due to the CPC regime’s severe oppression of parts of the Uyghur & Kazakh populations of Xinjiang.

    How Turkey improved stagnated ties with China
    Beijing’s decision to invest in the country comes after a flurry of Turkish visits and some changes in Chinese policies
    By Ragip Soylu in Ankara
    Published date: 11 July 2024 14:18 BST | Last update:23 hours 57 mins ago

    Türkiye imposed 40% tariff on Chinese made EVs recently, & then promptly reminded the tariffs when BYD announced the US$ 1B investment in an NEV (EV/EREV/PHEV) factory in the country. The EU tariffs appear intended for similar effect. However, as it has a much larger legacy auto sector to protect, it will probably not remove all of the tariffs even as Chinese automakers set up local operations, as BYD, Chery & SAIC are already doing. The tariff rates could be cut as the result of Sino-EU negotiations. Localizing the production & parts of the supply chain inevitably involves a degree of tech transfer from Chinese NEV & battery makers to the EU/Turkish auto sectors.

    Something the US should be emulating, but the domestic political zeitgeist precludes such a strategy.

  15. 15.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: There is also some interesting reporting on the projected meeting between Turkish President Erdogan and Syria’s leader Assad. They have been bitter enemies for a decade now, but Erdogan wants to resolve the Syrian civil war, or at least Turkiye’s part in it.

    Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Sudani wants to host the summit in his country, and Putin is resisting that. I’m not sure what’s going on there.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: Yep, read that Erdoğan is asking Assad to acquiesce to the de facto independence of the Turkomen held territories of Syria, which Assad is in no position to challenge, in return for normalization of relations.

Comments are closed.