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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 871: For Want of a Nail

War for Ukraine Day 871: For Want of a Nail

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. There is a white cross in a broken window frame. In front of it is a hispital bed with an IV stand falling across it. Wires from a broken monitor on the right are strewn on the floor with a yellow basketball on the right and teddy bear on the left. In the foreground are fragments of a Russian cruise missile, which are red, and have the "Z" war symbol. In the top of the painting in grey is written "Children's Hospital." Below that in red "Is Just Another Target for Russia" is written.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, both the girls are doing excellently. Rosie has not had any noticeable systemic reaction to last Monday’s chemo treatment. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, given the evening’s news, I’m going to keep this on the shorter side as I’m sure we’re going to get several updates, as well as breathless speculation about what happened, why, and what effects it will have.

Apparently new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer misspoke in his meeting with President Zelenskyy during the NATO summit. The Times has the details:

Britain has to convince France and another key Nato ally before it can allow Ukraine to fire its Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets inside Russia as the UK is unable to act alone.

Sir Keir Starmer suggested at the Nato summit in Washington DC this week that he was loosening restrictions on how the weapons were used in a shift in policy that was praised by President Zelensky of Ukraine.

However, No 10 has been forced to clarify it has not given permission to Ukraine to fire the missiles into Russia and the position has not changed since the previous government.

Under defence agreements, the UK has to have the approval of two allies, one of which is France, which manufactures Storm Shadows alongside the UK. The other is another undisclosed Nato ally.

Storm Shadow missiles have a range of over 250 km (155 miles), triple the range of the missiles Ukraine has used up to now, and are very similar to the Taurus missiles that Germany has refused to hand for fear of the war escalating.

The UK has made a formal request to both allies in recent days and ministers are awaiting approval before giving Ukraine permission.

“This is not just ticking a box. It is quite a serious decision,” said a defence source, adding that Starmer had spoken too soon. “The intent remains positive,” they added.

There is extreme nervousness in Nato that tensions could spiral out of control if Ukraine is allowed to use the alliance’s weapons to hit targets in Russia. However, Ukraine has argued that it needs to be able to destroy bases and military infrastructure inside Russia if it is to win the war, a position that UK ministers have privately agreed with before. It is thought, however, that the UK does not want to go ahead with approving the weapons for use inside Russia without the backing of some of its closest allies.

As is stands, Kyiv is allowed to fire Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Crimea and mainland Ukraine. The US allows Ukraine to use its weapons when acting in defence of the city of Kharkiv in the northeast. Starmer said earlier in the week that UK military aid was “for defensive purposes but it is for Ukraine to decide how to deploy it for those defensive purposes”.

Then after talks with Starmer on Wednesday, Zelensky said he had been given “permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets in Russian territory”.

“Today, we had the opportunity to discuss the practical implementation of this decision,” Zelensky said, while having a photograph taken with the prime minister at the summit marking the 75th anniversary of the transatlantic alliance.

A Ukrainian military source also praised Starmer’s position, suggesting he had gone further than the previous Conservative government. “This is a more clear and very strong message to partner countries,” the source added.

I have no idea if Starmer wasn’t staffed properly on this or he misspoke, but you’ve got to do better than this. This happens over and over and over again. Every time it happens it hurts the Ukrainians and helps the Russians.

There is no new video posted on the President of Ukraine’s website or YouTube channel. He was traveling today and had a brief meeting with the Taoisech.

On my way to Ukraine, I met with Ireland’s Taoiseach @SimonHarrisTD.

We discussed support for Ukraine and continued cooperation in demining and cybersecurity. We also talked about the next steps to implement the decisions based on the outcomes of the Peace Summit and discussed the efforts needed to increase global attention to the issue of children illegally deported by Russia.

I thank Ireland for supporting the Peace Summit in Switzerland and the Taoiseach for his strong personal attention and commitment to the efforts to bring the children home.

🇺🇦 🇮🇪

The Ukrainian ambassador to the UN:

The cost:

Kharkiv:

Britain’s military intelligence:

Blood for Putin’s folly:

From The Telegraph:

Russia has lost more than 70,000 troops in the past two months, British military intelligence said on Friday.

The update by the Ministry of Defence added that the heavy losses would likely continue as Russia looked to make gains across the front lines in Ukraine.

“The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine, throughout May and June 2024, increased to conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163 respectively,” the MoD wrote.

“In total, Russia likely lost (killed and wounded) in excess of 70,000 personnel over the past two months.”

Russia has made grinding gains in eastern Ukraine over the past months as Kyiv’s armed forces try to overcome crippling shortages in manpower and ammunition.

Moscow launched a new front in May with a cross-border offensive into Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region.

A senior Nato official described the losses as “astronomical” during a briefing on the fringes of the alliance’s summit in Washington DC this week.

“Russia likely suffered losses of almost 1,000 people a day in May, which is quite an astronomical figure,” the source said.

Though the offensive was short-lived, it stretched Ukrainian resources, enabling Russia to make further gains on their priority target of the nearby Donetsk region. However, it stretched Russian resources also, said the MoD.

“The uptick in losses reflects Russia’s opening of the new front in the Kharkiv region, while maintaining the same rate of offensive operations along the remainder of the front,” its update said.

“Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the front line, an effective Ukrainian defence and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia’s ability to stretch and exploit any tactical successes, despite attempting to stretch the front line further.”

The update added: “Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day over the next two months as Russia continues to try to overcome Ukrainian positions with mass.”

More at the link.

Budy, Kharkiv Oblast:

Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast:

Hlyboke, Kharkiv Oblast:

Kherson Oblast:

Myrnohrad, Donestk Oblast:

Kyiv:

“I understand that in our situation, with our diagnosis, if we go somewhere else, we will have to undergo all the tests again… It will take 3-4 months, and we don’t know if we have that time.”

So many sick kids were treated in the children’s hospital attacked by Russia. Now their parents have to make some hard choices that might impact the children’s well-being.

📹: DW

Russia, Russian occupied Ukraine, and Belarus:

Russian terrorists use all possible air bases in Russia, Belarus, and temporarily occupied Crimea to carry out air raids. The occupiers launch missiles at the territory of Ukraine from military air bases.

The following are the military air bases from which the Russian Federation most often launches air attacks and which planes are based there:

✈️ Engels-2 air base
The closest strategic military air base to Ukraine is in the city of Engels, Saratov region. It is the main bomber base and the only place in the Russian Federation where Tu-160 strategic bombers are stationed. Tu-95MS bombers are also stationed there.

✈️ Saky military air base
One of the key air bases for enemy aircraft in occupied Crimea. It used to be a base of the Ukrainian Navy, but now the 43rd Fighter Aviation Regiment of the Russian Aerospace Forces is stationed there, with mainly Su-30SM, Su-33, and Su-24M bombers.

The Russians also stationed mainly Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft, Il-76 military transport aircraft, Su-24M bombers, Su-30SM, Su-33, and other aircraft at this base.

✈️ Belbek military air base
Before the occupation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, it was Belbek International Airport, which served the city of Sevastopol and other Crimean cities. After 2014, the airport was closed to civil aviation.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian Su-27, Su-27SM, Su-30M2, and Su-27M fighter jets were stationed at the air base. On January 31, 2024, the AFU air force struck the Belbek air base, hitting at least three Russian warplanes and enemy personnel.

✈️ Morozovsk military air base
Located in the Rostov region, it is the station of Russia’s strategic unit, the 4th Guards Air and Air Defence Forces Army, aimed at attacking southeastern Ukraine.

Fighter jets, helicopters, air defense forces, and more than 40 bombers are stationed in Morozovsk.

✈️ Primorsko-Akhtarsk military air base
The Primorsko-Akhtarsk air base is located in the Krasnodar Krai of the Russian Federation. The 960th Air Assault Regiment, part of the 1st Guards Composite Aviation Division of the 4th Guards Air and Air Defence Forces Army, is based here.

Su-25 fighter jets and Su-34 bombers are stationed at the airfield. The Russian Federation attacks Ukraine with combat drones from this air base.

✈️ Yeysk military air base
The second Russian airfield in Krasnodar Krai is located in Yeysk, 60 km from Mariupol.

More than 20 MiG-29K aircraft are stationed here. Predominantly, Tu-142 anti-submarine aircraft and a few fighter jets, among them Su-33s, are based in Yeysk.

In February 2023, six Su-34 fighter-bombers disappeared from the military air base in Yeysk after the explosion here.

✈️ Belarusian Lida air base
Located in the Grodno region, from which the army aviation brigade conducts combat sorties to attack Ukrainian infrastructure.

Predominantly, Su-25, MiG-29, and Yak-130 aircraft are stationed here. A large number of helicopters was also detected at the air base.

✈️ Baranovichi military air base
Baranovichi is a Belarusian military air base located in Brest region.

The 61 Fighter Air Base of the Russian Federation is stationed there, which consists mainly of Su-30SM, Su-27, and MiG-29 aircraft. But since September 2021, Russian aircraft, Su-30SM and Su-34 in particular have also started arriving there.

✈️ Luninets military air base
Located in the Brest region of the Republic of Belarus.
The occupiers used Su-35S, Su-34, and Su-25 military aircraft, which took off from the Belarusian Baranovichi, Luninets, and Lida air bases, for air strikes on military and civilian infrastructure in the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions.

✈️ Dzhankoi military air base
Before the Russian occupation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, Dzhankoi was a Ukrainian military air base and then a civilian airport.

With the outbreak of full-scale war, the air base near the city of Dzhankoi became the main logistics hub of the Russian army and a place where Russian attack helicopters are stationed. The air base also frequently hosts cargo aircraft and Su-25 attack aircraft.
✈️ Machulishchy air base
Located in the urban-type settlement of the same name in the Minsk region. Machulishchy is home to the 50th Composite Air Base, flying A-50, An-26, Il-76MD, Mi-8 and Mi-24 aircraft.

🔷 What other air bases does the Russian Federation use?
Actually, the Russian Federation uses many airfields (at least 40) and air bases.

In particular, Russia uses airfields near Krymsk, Krasnodar, Korenovsk, Mineralnye Vody, Kushchyovskaya, Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Marinovka, Volgograd, Saratov, Buturlinovka, Stary Oskol, Belgorod, Lipetsk, Shatalovo and Kaluga.

In Belarus, such airfields are located near the cities of Minsk, Mozyr, Gomel, Brest, Vitebsk, and Bobruysk.

📸: Airfields used by the Russian military for their purposes.

These airfields are located several thousand kilometers from the border with Ukraine. If they are destroyed, the number of Russian attacks on Ukraine will drop dramatically. These are legitimate military targets for Ukraine.

Currently, Ukraine has restrictions on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory. The basic position on the use of weapons is the same – they can only be used in close range to Ukrainian internationally recognized borders.

Ukrainian Allies continue to search for a formula so that they are not accused of a direct attack on the Russian Federation. In fact, none of those who have transferred long-range weapons to Ukraine have yet clearly stated: “there are no restrictions except for international humanitarian law”.

The option of closing the skies over Ukraine was discussed, but it was also perceived as escalation.

Increasing Ukrainian air defense capabilities is an extremely necessary and overdue step. But this process is protracted, and the volumes of what we receive are insufficient. The logistics are such that it takes months to actually deliver what was promised. During this time, Russians will primarily destroy the remnants of Ukrainian energy system and the objects that could be protected otherwise.

For want of a nail.

Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today, so here is some adjacent material.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

34Comments

  1. 1.

    hrprogressive

    We’re gonna need those “Today in American Political Violence” threads again, I’m afraid.

  4. 4.

    Adam L Silverman

    @hrprogressive: I’d stick with the TPM crowd for the time being. Marshall runs a solid operation and his people won’t get out ahead of the facts in a dangerous way.

  6. 6.

    Adam L Silverman

    @hrprogressive: I will state that I do not understand how or why the Secret Service failed to secure all the buildings or anything else adjacent to the rally site prior to the event. Not doing so is way outside my understanding of the actual protocols for this type of thing.

  9. 9.

    Hilbertsubspace

    Thank you for these updates, I appreciate them.

    Watching Putin brutalize innocent Ukrainians and his own people… I sometimes find myself at a lost for words.  The only thing I can say is that America and NATO must keep helping Ukraine, because every country that borders Russia has Vlad’s eye on them.  Although he would not invade a NATO nation, yet.

  10. 10.

    Gin & Tonic

    I’m confused by Gerashchenko’s Tweet. Those airfields are not “several thousand kilometers” away from the UA border; in many cases they are less than a hundred.

  11. 11.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: I want to thank you again for raising the alarm all these years about the domestic political course the US has been on. It certainly has helped to clarify my thinking. However, even I had thought you were over the top at times. Perhaps not…

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: You’re welcome. I am very good at what I do and I have been doing it for a very, very, very long time. I do not make assessments or estimates that are not valid. I work very hard to ensure that nothing I write here makes anyone dumber. Unfortunately, that sentiment is not shared by other front pagers. That is all I have to say about this.

  14. 14.

    Yutsano

    @Adam L Silverman: ​So weird that I almost consider this a respite. Then I look at the tweet of the opera singer dying for his homeland and I feel helpless, but even more so should Biden lose. I guess I just can’t even today.

  19. 19.

    db11

    Thanks Adam.

    I feel a deep sadness at the irreplaceable losses suffered by the Ukrainian people night after night. The relentless terror, moral depravity and utter senselessness of the Russian assaults wound the soul.

    ETA: in spite of that, I continue to appreciate the information and insights that you bring to us with your tireless efforts.

  22. 22.

    Gin & Tonic

    @db11: ​And yet I never met anyone there who wasn’t fully convinced that the sacrifices, as great as they may be, weren’t absolutely necessary. Because they all know that as bad as it is now, life under russian control would be immeasurably worse.​
     

    ETA: Did I mis-negate that? It’s late, I’m tired and I’m sure you know what I mean.

  23. 23.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    We know what you mean.

    I think that in Anton’s twitter post, he left out the “up to”. Some airfields that ruZZia are using are close, some are far. To a Mig or SU 1,000 km is an hour’s flight away from Ukraine at cruising speed. Add in missiles and glide bombs and you don’t even need to come close to Ukrainian airspace.

  24. 24.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    Thank you Adam. I lost an entire comment to FWP so that’s all I have to say.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    @Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:

    At 2am, EST, WordPress get’s “glitchy”,

    usually it’s multiples of a comment post,

    the weird one for me today, was a “backwards” keyboard.

    Was posting a comment, backspace was forward space, comma was period, shift didn’t work,……….. suo I just took a break and waited until the 2am Glitch went away, about 2:30 am EST.

  34. 34.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Under the Leahy Act, countries with a working legal system get the first opportunity to investigate, prosecute and correct, before the State Department applies sanctions.

    The State Department has had, given the IDF and the Settlers actions, it’s “thumb on the scale” in regards to Israel for decades.

Comments are closed.