Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

In my day, never was longer.

People are weird.

The current Supreme Court is a rogue court. Very dangerous.

Democrats are back in array!

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

Republicans in disarray!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 873: Day of Ukrainian Statehood

War for Ukraine Day 873: Day of Ukrainian Statehood

by | 49 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

The crest of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. A wine colored cross on a silver shield with the gold Uktainian Tryzub in the center on a circular blue medallion. A pair of silver maces and an upright sword are between the blue medallion and the wine colored cross.

A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing very well. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donation.

Second, I had a very long day so I’m going for – pick one – shorter, briefer, more concise for tonight’s update.

Third, you’ve all seen the news about Trump’s VP choice. I’ll simply remind everyone that while Vance only believes whatever Peter Thiel tells him to believe and whatever he needs to accumulate more power and influence, that means he believes the US should cut Ukraine off.

President Zelenskyy gave both a press conference today and spoke at the official events for the Day of Ukrainian statehood. Video from the former hasn’t yet posted, but here’s a teaser:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s remarks at the Day of Ukrainian Statehood celebrations.

Spain:

Spain is delivering a new military package for Ukraine, which includes 10 Leopard 2A4 tanks, various backhoes, and a significant number of anti-tank rockets.

We are grateful to our Spanish friends for their unwavering support. Leopard tanks have proven themselves on the battlefield and will strengthen our warriors in the fight against russian invaders.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇪🇸
@Defensagob

The Day of Ukrainian Statehood asserts the connection of many generations of 🇺🇦 people.

This day honors all the stages of our state formation, from Kyivan Rus’ to the present day, and all who made efforts to make Ukraine an independent state.

Today’s war with the russian aggressor is a struggle for our future and national identity.

We will definitely protect our independence and our statehood. We will win!

The EU:

PoliticoEU has the details:

European Union foreign affairs ministers are set to snub Hungary by organizing their own foreign affairs summit in August instead of traveling to Budapest for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s event.

Hungary, which holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, plans to host a foreign affairs summit in Budapest on August 28-29 — a prime opportunity for Orbán to try to shape the bloc’s foreign policy agenda and for his Foreign Affairs Minister Péter Szijjártó to stand in the limelight.

But after Orbán obstructed aid for Ukraine and his self-styled peace visits to Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, which he didn’t coordinate with the EU’s 26 other national leaders, many foreign ministers have been hunting for a way to avoid becoming props in what they believe would be another Orbán propaganda show.

Enter Josep Borrell. The EU’s foreign policy chief will summon the ministers to a “formal” foreign affairs council at the same time as Orbán’s summit, according to three EU diplomats with direct knowledge of the plan and who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the move.

It comes after Hungary’s envoy to the EU, Bálint Ódor, was harshly criticized by his colleagues at a meeting earlier this month, with Slovakia the only country not taking the floor. By boycotting its foreign affairs summit, the ministers hope to limit Hungary’s trolling.

“If there’s a formal foreign affairs council, organized by the high representative [Borrell] the same day, the ministers won’t be able to go to Budapest,” said one of the diplomats.

Another added that by boycotting the Budapest meeting, the other foreign ministers wanted to “send a clear signal that Hungary does not speak for the EU.”

More at the link!

Ukraine:

Christopher Miller summarizes the new polling of Ukrainians attitudes, as well as President Zelenskyy’s remarks about making changes in his political appointments. Via the Thread Reader App:

Ukraine today: A fresh poll shows Ukrainians’ interest in negotiations; and Zelensky tells Ukrainian reporters he’s “not afraid” of Trump 2.0, and signals more govt shakeups likely ahead. (Rumors of PM Shmyhal’s departure, etc. have swirled for months.) 🧵 

A new poll by @RazumkovC for @zn_ua found that 44% of Ukrainians believe it’s time for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia (35% say not yet; 21% undecided). That’s a big shift compared to last year, when 64% of Ukrainians opposed talks with Moscow.

@RazumkovC @zn_ua But vast majority of Ukrainians – 83% – disagree with Putin’s conditions, which would include the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from beyond the administrative borders of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions just to start talks.

@RazumkovC @zn_ua By region: 60% of Ukrainians in the country’s south are ready for negotiations; 49% in the center; 35% in the west; and 33% in the east, closest to the front and under daily attack. – @RazumkovC poll 

@RazumkovC @zn_ua Additionally, 77% of Ukrainians oppose lifting Western sanctions on Russia as part of negotiations.

58% oppose demilitarizing and adopting “neutral, non-nuclear status,” one of Putin’s key demands. (22% are for.)
– @RazumkovC poll 

@RazumkovC @zn_ua Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv, Zelensky said: “As for Trump’s vision for ending the war: I understand it in general. I think if Mr. Trump becomes the president then we will work [together]. I’m not afraid of that.”

Zelensky answered a Q about a long-rumored govt shakeup looming: “We cannot just talk about replacing the prime minister… there may be changes in the government. Most likely, yes. We are engaged in this process. We are consulting some ministries on specific adjustments.”

@RazumkovC @zn_ua On mobilization: Zelensky said that Ukraine’s mobilization campaign is going according to plan since a new law was adopted in May, but there are not enough training bases for the troops. He’s hoping to expand them, including into Poland.

@RazumkovC @zn_ua Zelensky also said that a Ukraine arms maker “produces the largest number of artillery systems per month compared to factories in Europe.” Among those being produced is the Bohdan self-propelled gun.

Here’s the link to an English translation of the summary of the survey results.

Fresh poll:

44% of Ukrainians believe the time has come to begin official peace negotiations with Russia

35% don’t think so.

At the same time, 83% would oppose Ukraine’s hypothetical withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, which is what Putin wants as his prerequisite for (nothing but) “ceasefire” and the beginning of talks.

Moreover, 84% oppose the idea of ceding these territories to the aggressor, which is again Putin’s demand.

77% oppose lifting all international sanctions on Russia.

58% oppose enshrining Ukraine’s “neutral, non-nuclear status” in the country’s constitution as demanded by Putin.

In other words, there are little illusions about Putin’s “peace proposals” in Ukraine.

Ukrainians want peace as no one else out there.

But Russia will use a short pause in the war to regroup and recoup its losses and to disarm Ukraine and strip it of Western defense aid as part of a “peace deal” — only to attack again soon in a much better shape.

And Russia needs Ukraine to stay out of NATO not because NATO is somehow an “existential threat” to the world’s largest nuclear power – but because it needs Ukraine defenseless, unprotected, and vulnerable to next phases of the Russian invasion.

There are ways out:

1. Providing Ukraine with stable, constantly expanding defense assistance based on long-term, strategic, and large-scale growth of the West’s defense production and investment.

2. Not giving the fascist Russia a chance to catch its breath amid its increasingly problematic large losses in hostilities; not buying the tempting sweet talk from the world’s No. 1 liar and the author of the largest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler.

3. Dropping the failed and compromised policy of trying to please the Kremlin by not admitting Ukraine to NATO since the mid-2000s.

Keeping Ukraine out of history’s most successful defense alliance despite an obvious Russian threat not only failed to prevent a major European war but also made it guaranteed and inevitable as Putin had no barriers on his way to trying to take Kyiv.

It’s time to finally put one’s head out of the sand and think over the question why not a single Russian bomb is falling on Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, or Warsaw, and why entire cities are razed to the ground in “neutral” non-NATO Ukraine right now.

Support my work: http://buymeacoffee.com/saintanger
PayPal: [email protected]

The Avdiivka-Pokvrosk front:

The situation on the Avdiivka-Pokrovske front is currently very difficult! The enemy continues to advance towards the key logistical route Pokrovske-Kostiantynivka and, unfortunately, is advancing.

We are asking for support for our front, please
@jana_skhidna

https://send.monobank.ua/jar/yzzi7qW5w
РауРаІ: [email protected]

The enemy attacks the positions of our defenders daily, with assault actions ongoing in Vozdvyzhenka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, and Yasnobrodivka (the situation in the last two is particularly bad!). The enemy has taken a very active approach towards Novoselivka Persha and is making every effort to break through to the road leading from the village to Zhelanne (if this road is cut off, the situation will worsen sharply).

Enemy FPV drones are causing significant trouble in the direction, flying 10-15 km from the frontline (Mykolaivka, Novohrodivka), with several incidents of hits on civilian vehicles already reported.

Constant enemy assaults and KABs (guided aerial bombs) are yielding results, and they have achieved success on several sections of the Avdiivka front.

Novomykhailivka front:

Vovchansk:

Russian occupied Crimea:

A Russian military unit near Cape Fiolent was attacked in temporarily occupied Crimea, there were 8 explosions, Crimean Telegram channels report.

This is a division of S-400/S-300 missile systems from the 12 anti-aircraft missile regiment (m/u 85702). It is likely that one of the radar stations was damaged, there was also an explosion at the S-400 position.

Waiting for official confirmation.

From the Brookings Institution.

As NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary in Washington, it faced a Russia that continues its brutal aggression against Ukraine, is waging hybrid warfare against Europe, is working hard to turn the non-Western world against the West, and is now developing a new Asia strategy.

China is the anchor of Vladimir Putin’s Asia strategy. Since China stepped in to support Russia after the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of the war in the Donbas in 2014, Moscow has become increasingly reliant on Beijing. This dependence has grown since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China has reiterated the Russian narrative blaming NATO for the outbreak of the war and, through its exports of goods that contribute to Russia’s military-industrial base, it enables Russia to continue the war.

China is not only Russia’s lifeline in this conflict but both countries are allied in calling for a multipolar “post-Western” world that will move away from U.S. domination. They seek to build an axis of authoritarians that appeals to a receptive group of countries in the Global South. China is Russia’s top trading partner, although it is much more important for Russia economically than vice versa. Putin benefits from the reality that Xi Jinping does not want Russia to lose the war, because he fears that a post-Putin Russia could be run by a leader who might reconsider Russia’s antagonistic relationship with the West and would improve ties with the United States and Europe—to China’s detriment.

The increasingly close relationship between Moscow and Beijing—despite its asymmetries and differences of interest between the two powers—represents a danger to NATO because it strengthens Russia’s ability to continue its aggression in Ukraine, further threatening European security.

A new axis of resistance

Putin has, in the past two years, created an “axis of resistance” of countries that facilitate his aggression—China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Iran provides drones that Russia uses in Ukraine, and Moscow appears to be supplying Tehran with advanced weapons, probably accepting that Iran will become a nuclear weapons state. Iranian support of Hamas and Hezbollah destabilizes the Middle East and also threatens NATO countries since its actions could lead to a wider war with the West.

Putin’s recent visit to Pyongyang showcased North Korea’s growing role in his pivot to Asia and the two countries’ increasing ability to disrupt both Asian and European security. Putin received a lavish reception in Pyongyang and signed a bilateral strategic partnership agreement that includes a mutual defense provision that echoes NATO’s Article 5 clause. Putin declared that Moscow has nothing to lose and is prepared to go “to the end” to achieve its goals in Ukraine. His visit serves as a reminder that North Korea not only enables Russia to continue its brutal war, but Moscow may enable Pyongyang to strike out against a close Western ally, South Korea, in a move that could destabilize both Asia and Europe.

Thus, European and Asian security have become increasingly interconnected since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Putin, enraged by increased Western military and financial support for Ukraine, has again made nuclear threats against countries supporting Ukraine. He has announced that Russia will develop a new class of intermediate-range nuclear weapons and may deploy them near NATO countries. He warns that, if Russia loses the war, the 1,000-year-old Russian state will collapse. This is, he says, an existential war for Russia’s survival. The West should, he insists, accept his latest peace plan. This would involve Ukraine eschewing NATO membership and withdrawing its troops from and recognizing the four territories annexed by Russia in September 2022, none of which Russia fully controls, as Russian territory.

Russia’s continuing military assault on Ukraine comes amidst an unprecedented rise in hybrid cyberattacks and acts of sabotage in Europe, including arson at a factory site belonging to a German arms and ammunition maker. Russian espionage activities are also on the rise. And while this is taking place, Moscow is reaching out to what it calls the “global majority” to present itself as the leader of the anti-imperialist world, claiming that it has no colonial past, and exhorting the Global South to follow it in resisting American “hegemony” and creating a new “democratic,” multipolar international order.

More at the link!

 

 

 

Russia:

Here are the details from The Telegraph:

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. If anyone knows how to falsify figures to bolster weak causes, it is the Kremlin.

From Stalin’s manipulation of Soviet productivity statistics during his Five Year Plans, to Khrushchev’s exaggeration in the Cold War of his missile numbers, no entity has proved as effective at fabricating facts to demoralise, unsettle and outmanoeuvre opponents.

Today, in a similar manner, Putin points at Russia’s 144 million citizens and argues, through his propaganda mouthpieces, that it is “impossible” for Kyiv to win his war, given Ukraine’s population is a paltry 37 million.

By this logic, figures released by British intelligence this week – that Russia lost more than 70,000 troops in the past two months, averaging daily conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163 in May and June – become irrelevant. “Russia can always find more men”, one hears people say, justifying Western inaction.

Except it can’t. Raised on documentaries about the “unstoppable” Russian bear – capable of tearing its way through Eastern Europe, as it did in the Second World War – we forget that this is not possible in modern Russia. Nor is it even desirable for Moscow.

For one, while Putin has conducted several large-scale mobilisations, he remains cautious both in terms of the numbers of men he recruits and where they come from, prioritising conscripting in poorer communities far away from the power centres of Moscow and St Petersburg; often marginalised ethnic minorities. Already, some of these communities have given all they can, with reports of entire generations of men being wiped out in some towns and villages, triggering widespread, if localised (for now), protests.

Moscow’s caution in this regard means it is obliged to empty prisons, exonerating murderers and rapists so they can serve in the Russian army or mercenary outfits like Wagner. Again, this resource is not infinite: numbers are now said to be so low that Moscow is turning to women’s prisons. Given that, by design, women only make up 4 per cent of the Russian army, this is extremely telling.

But these are still relatively minor impediments when considered against broader trends. Russia’s fighting age population, at 14 million, is not gargantuan. With many not eligible or undesirable for recruitment for geographic reasons, the number shrinks further. Many of Russia’s young fled after the full-scale invasion: an estimated 300,000 by mid-March 2022, 500,000 by the end of August, and an additional 400,000 by early October. Estimates put the current number of the departed at over a million.

I could go on. Russia is not as powerful as the Soviet Union: approximately half of the Soviet population came from what today are non-Russian countries – and even then, twice as powerful in numerical terms, it lost its war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. That conflict underscores that army size is only part of the equation.

Indeed, many of the vital components necessary to win wars – like military adaptability and modern tech – work in Kyiv’s favour. That’s before one considers its will to survive as a free nation. And one cannot put a figure on that.

More at the link.

Koronevko, Kursk Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

👼 vs 😈 #песпатрон

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

49Comments

  1. 1.

    frog

    [Vance] believes the US should cut Ukraine off.

    I’m expecting Trump to declare Ukraine a state sponsor of terrorism, and cut countries that send aid of any sort out of our banking system. Europe will have to scramble to create their own SWIFT.

  2. 2.

    frog

    I am first?  And after all this time, the only?

     

    I once gave a party and nobody came.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    In case anyone is interested, President Z is delivering his Day of Ukr Statehood remarks against the backdrop of the Cathedral of St. Sophia in Kyiv. This cathedral dates to the early part of the 11th Century CE. The different textures of the facade delineate the parts that have survived intact through the years (there aren’t that many.) It is the spiritual center of Ukrainian Christianity.

  4. 4.

    guachi

    Who thinks that Trump would share US intelligence with Putin so he can more easily target Ukraine?

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Given the state of global geopolitics & the rise of populist/nativist/reactionary authoritarian forces across every part of the world, I don’t think throwing the word “axis” around is a good idea. It foreclosed policy options on the part of the U.S. & the larger West toward the PRC, Iran & NK, & sets the dynamic more firmly on the path of Cold War 2.0.

    If anyone thinks waging a new Cold War against non-Christian & non-White adversaries will create favorable conditions for democratic forces (be it liberal or socialist) in the U.S. or most parts of the West, that is delusional.

  7. 7.

    Jay

    @frog:

    A) Ukraine won’t quit.

    B) SWIFT, if you list all the Nations supporting Ukraine, that are all in on supporting Ukraine, not just with military hardware, but humanitarian aid, the US will have cut off 99.9% of it’s Global trading partners. Many of us already have payment systems separate from SWIFT with our trading partners. I don’t have to convert CAD$ into USD to pay suppliers in Europe with Euro’s.

    C) Our response will be swift. No trade, no crossing borders, no flights, US Military kicked out of many nations where they have bases, no intelligence sharing, no asylum, no refugee’s allowed. Rot where you are.

    In other words, never gonna happen.

    Did you know that while the US is the largest single supplier of aid to Ukraine, military and humanitarian aid, the ROW contributes almost three times what the US supplies.

  11. 11.

    frog

    @Jay:

    A)  I don’t expect them to, nor will most Europeans stop their support.  I do fear that Russia will move several giant leaps closer to a nuclear exchange.

    B)  I did not know that so many countries were already set up to tell the USA “Up Yours”.  Thanks for the info.

    C)  With all the “America First” rantings, all this can happen anyway, without Trump’s declaration.  “Rot where I am.”  One of the good things about being a social zero is that I had to search outside the USA for a wife.  I can escape.

    Sorry, I do not know what a “ROW” is.

  12. 12.

    guachi

    @Adam L Silverman: I don’t think there’s any way around it unless members of the military intentionally disobey orders. It’s not the cutting off of aid that bothers me. It’s the intelligence sharing that will screw Ukraine. That can’t be overcome.

  14. 14.

    strange visitor (from another planet)

    adam, thanks for your work.

    i have two questions:

    1) howcome the tank in the spanish tweet isn’t a leopard 2 A4?
    2) is the youtuber anders puck nielsen a reliable source?

  15. 15.

    Jay

    @frog:

    A) ruZZia will not go nuclear. Le Force du Frappe and the Brit arsenal were created because nobody in NATO believed/believes that the US would respond to a nuclear attack in Europe. Le Force du Frappe has the shortest hair trigger in the world, they have always wanted to nuke the Soviet Union/ruZZia first.

    B) ROW is The Rest Of The World.

    C) “American Firster’s” would get an F on a pop quiz on who are the US’s top trading partners, can’t even read the labels on the shit they buy. The US will get “Orbanned”. 34 Felonies Rapist Pedo’s economic plans as they are, will create a massive depression in the US, mass unemployment, etc, so build your Hooverville now while you can still afford tarpaper.

  16. 16.

    eversor

    If you can kill faster than they can recruit that’s the game.  While GRU or Spetsnaz might be quality troops, and we have even worked with them, most of their “troops” are shit level conscripts.  They lack the NCO backbone that Western militarys have.  And as anyone remotely familiar with the military will tell you it’s the NCOs that do most of the killing, leading, teaching, and basic military tasks that make it work.  The generals might be in charge but it’s sargeants that call the shots.  At the technical level even most officers are taught by NCOs.  I was an NCO.

    Nuclear sabre rattling will only get you so far when you are not only monkey with a thermonuclear device.  Glassing London or NYC is only a threat as long as you don’t mind Moscow getting glassed.  It’s a stupid ass threat to make unless you are an outright mad man.  Which, who fucking knows.

    But they can’t even roll Ukraine.  Poland is chomping at the bits to get a piece of this action and lord knows they can’t roll NATO.

    It’s all so fucking stupid.

  18. 18.

    wjca

    @eversor: as anyone remotely familiar with the military will tell you it’s the NCOs that do most of the killing, leading, teaching, and basic military tasks that make it work.

    It is definitely the NCOs that make it all work, as any good officer knows.  (And I was an officer.)

  19. 19.

    Gin & Tonic

    Travel and logistics

    For the next installment, I figured I’d take the tack taken by a lot of people I know IRL, who are curious about the mechanics of traveling in and out of UA – which are challenging. Air travel is, of course, not an option, so you’re left with ground transportation, either by train or by car/bus/foot. To enter, the most typical path is to take the PL trains to Przemysl, and a UA train from there. You can originate that leg in Warsaw, but more typically in Krakow or (for US officials and military-related folks) in Rzeszow. Krakow is well-served by air, so we flew there and spent a couple of days sightseeing, having never been there before. A very nice city, plenty of history, good infrastructure, not yet overrun by idiot Brits like Prague. From there it’s a short train ride to Przemysl (about three hours) where you disembark to clear EU passport control (you are leaving the EU at that point.) That takes somewhere around an hour to an hour and a half, depending on the crowd. You leave the EU control building onto the UA train’s platform, and board that – regardless of the schedule, it will wait until all passengers have cleared EU control – and the train takes off. UA immigration officers are on board the train already, and between Przemysl and Lviv (about three hours) they review everyone, and go through all carriages a couple of times with the contraband-sniffing dogs. This is all actually pretty uneventful, and takes maybe 6-7 hours from Krakow to Lviv, which is the first major city you get to. Going to Kyiv will take another 5-6 hours. What’s notable here is that the UA trains are *much* nicer than the PL trains, if you’re taking what’s called the “Intercity.” Easily comparable to Acela.

    Leaving is an entirely different story. UA wants to make sure military-eligible people aren’t leaving, and the EU is skittish about refugees. Here we had three different experiences. I had to leave the country earlier than my dear wife, so I wasn’t able to get a train ticket for the day I needed – they go on sale 21 (or 20?) days before your desired date, and if you’re traveling on a weekend, they sell out quickly. So I had to take a bus. There are lots of buses, at all comfort levels, but there aren’t many road border crossings, so things back up with buses, trucks and private cars. I left early in the morning, but it didn’t matter. The bus gets to the border crossing and waits its turn (there is a cafe there, doing a brisk business, so you can get off and have breakfast.) After 3-ish hours we moved up, and hit customs. They took everybody with a foreign passport off the bus for baggage inspection. Guy ahead of me, seemed like a British accent, no language ability, so the customs guy was pulling pretty much everything out of his bag, opening it up, asking questions. I’m next, hand him my US passport and say “we can converse in Ukr if you’d like.” So he says “oh, you have roots here?” I respond in the affirmative and he asks me two questions and never even looks at my luggage. They want to know if you’re carrying “military souvenirs” or medications, which I wasn’t, so we chatted for a minute and I moved on. A little while later you disembark again for passport control.

    At this point you’ve been at the border for maybe 4 hours and haven’t entered the EU yet. That’s next. You get off again, this time everyone with their baggage, and wait for EU passport control. Another hour or two, then you put you bags through x-ray – it doesn’t seem to matter which flavor of passport you’re holding, everyone is in the same queue. Eventually you clear all this and get back on the bus. All told, it was about 8 hours to cross the border, and about 13.5 to go from Lviv to Krakow. I knew I wasn’t flying out until the next morning, and I had a hotel room reserved at the airport, so none of this mattered, but the timing is something you have to plan for carefully.

    My dear wife was leaving a few days later, so we had gotten her a train ticket, but there are only two trains a day to Krakow, and hers left in the middle of the night. With martial law and curfew being in effect, she had to get to the train station several hours before departure and wait; this would have otherwise been fine, but that night there were major air raid alerts, so she ended up sheltering in the tunnels under the train station until all-clear (not a good way to start a long journey.) From that point it was pretty uneventful – UA passport control on the train from Lviv to Przemysl, get off there and enter the EU (but the PL trains don’t wait, so you hang around at a train station with no services at the ass-crack of dawn until it’s your time.) She got to Krakow in plenty of time, since her flight was in the afternoon.

    Then there was our son, leaving a few days later still (he’d had to take a bus ride in, due to several factors.) Since he’s young and more adventurous, and since he was staying with a friend who crosses the border often and could give him advice, this was more complex. First he took a Bla Bla Car to “close enough” to a border crossing, then a cab to the crossing itself, whereupon he walked across (customs and immigration for pedestrians there is pretty simple) then another cab to Przemysl to get a train to Krakow, where he got at something like 11 at night for a flight the next morning, so spent the night on a recliner in the Delta lounge. Oh, to be young again.

    Bottom line, you have to be patient, you have to be very well aware of your schedule and what can go wrong, and you have to build in time. Best of circumstances, you need a minimum of 36 hours between East Coast US and Western or Central Ukraine. And it helps a lot to know the language.

  20. 20.

    frog

    @Jay:

     

    34 Felonies Rapist Pedo’s economic plans

    Now, now. Trump likes boobs on his little girlies. That makes him a Hebe, not a Pedo.

  22. 22.

    Carlo Graziani

    @eversor: I think that what the Telegraph article is pointing to goes beyond mere battlefield attrition ratios. There’s a clear suggestion that the war effort is politically destabilizing to Russia, and that Putin, despite his numerological bluster, understands and fears this. The latter being consistent with his extreme reluctance to use the term “war” in connection with the war during its first year, and to some extent even more recently—the “war” he is willing to discuss is against the West, not Ukraine, which remains the circumlocutious “special military operation” i.e. the latter-day equivalent of a state-level police action.

    Putin has feared the consequences of a prolonged war from the beginning, despite his inability to commit to it ever more fully. He’s a worthy heir to LBJ and Nixon, in this respect.

  27. 27.

    Traveller

    @eversor:  I do have to take a moment to thank you, wjca, Jay, and others on the more practical, difficult aspects of this war.

    As I think about it and see this war almost in real time…I am far from certain that I could fight in this…battle space. I squint my eyes and watch people explode and die in the most remarkable ways. It is not that my war was easy, from ambushes and friendly fire artillery strike on my own position…I think I’ve seen it all.

    But I  certainly haven’t. Starting with the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War everything has been astonishing…astonishingly bad for real troops on the ground. Dirt level and really in the trenches and tree lines…ground troops have just been battered and bloodied almost beyond comprehension.

    Kind of most distressingly, body armor seems to be pretty effective protecting the upper torso…which is why so many legs are blown off with soldiers surviving the loss of legs or simply bleeding out in the dust and churned up dirt that literally becomes their grave even while a flicker of life still remains. In one recent video the upper torso had been ripped away leaving only an upright heart like almost on a pedestal but still beating even with all of the surrounding body & flesh gone.

    Amazing! I’ve seen some things but that, that was amazing…and has lead me, at least for that moment, to question life itself. Sigh…but when I say Glory to Ukraine, I really mean it in my heart. But most especially to the ground troops, the grunts. You know. Best Wishes, Traveller

     

  28. 28.

    Jay

    @patrick II:

    The US Military and CIA have a Combined Ops Center in Ukraine that shares both ways intel with Ukraine.

    The Ukrainian’s used Starlinks as the comms platform on several of their drones, which Apartheid Clyde turned off at a critical moment*.

    Pretty sure that Ukraine has compensated for that, given that Felon Husk is letting the ruZZian’s use Starlinks as well.

    *and it is pretty much a “tell” that Starlink monitors what’s happening on Starlink in real time.

  29. 29.

    J. Arthur Crank

    @Gin & Tonic:   Thanks for the interesting story.  Is your son a Ukrainian speaker?  I readily agree that all other things being equal, being young is better than being old, and having the language skills is better than not having them.

  33. 33.

    strange visitor (from another planet)

    @Jay: i know. the a4 doesn’t come with the applique spaced armor. i guess i would’ve thought they’d have more than stock photos.

  34. 34.

    LanceThruster

    “We live in a country where if you want to go bomb somebody, there’s remarkably little discussion about how much it might cost. But when you have a discussion about whether or not we can assist people who are suffering, then suddenly we become very cost-conscious.” – Prof. Andrew Bacevich

  37. 37.

    LanceThruster

    @Jay: I just got back from a shopping run. Though not that much off the beaten track, I go on supply runs like a trapper coming out of the mountains, grabbing as many items in bulk as is practical. Whatever the cause, most all my staples have gone up 50% to 100%. What I also noticed is that as I am buying cheapest brand available of any given item, other people must be going that route as I got the remaining two loaves. Regular wheat bread went up 50% (which is what I usually buy) and whole wheat doubled. Several of the discount outlets closed as well so there’s fewer places to stock up on the more affordable stuff. As far as the election goes, the chatter from the right wing is nostalgia for prices under Trump.

  39. 39.

    Jay

    @LanceThruster:

    Greedflation and shrinkflation.

    We have a Loblaw’s boycott going in Canada, because across all their “branded stores”, package sizes went down 75%, prices doubled on regular sizes and profits for them went up 90%. They are the largest grocery chain in Canada and are two chains away from being a monopoly.

    We do a lot of our grocery shopping now at Shiraz Market, a local Halal store. Quality is great, prices are cheaper.

  41. 41.

    Jay

    @Traveller:

    A lot of the “costs of life” is because this war, has settled into WWI trench fighting,

    without WWI trenches or late war assault tactics.

    The ruZZians live, fight and die in holes. Ukrainian trenches are quite a bit better, but I am still not seeing bunkered walls, 3 alternating layers of sandbags and 8″ timbers, with a 24″ layer of bursting gravel.

    In WWI both sides figured out eventually that you shell the 1st, 2’nd and 3’rd trench lines, while shelling their arty, as your guys crossed no mans land to the attack and punch through.

    Having tank riders, golf carts, motorcycle assaults, meatwaves, across open ground, with the enemy not surpressed, in drone and landmine world is suicide.

    ruZZian casualties of late in single assaults are approaching some of the deadliest battles of WWI, for gains of mere yards.

  42. 42.

    Sally

    I have read that another of Putin’s problems is that the war is taking able bodied men from the workforce (many never to return). Apparently there are shortages of construction, maintenance and repair, heavy industry, and transport workers, which is causing delays and disruptions in society at large. Women can start to fill those vacancies to an extent. The participation rate is about 55% (round numbers, approx). I don’t know how many of the remaining 45% of women could be mobilised to fill vacancies, but many will be very poorly educated, older minority women not eminently suitable. Hence we see apartment blocks flooded from broken water pipes not being fixed, blackouts, dams collapsing, roads impassable, and local manufacturing closing down, when not redirected to defence work. Students are being co-opted in near slave labor conditions to build equipment such as drones, to the anger of their parents.

    Now that Putin has declared that the mobilised troops will not be discharged till the war is over, the labor situation is only going to get worse. All is not honky dory in Russkiy Mir. Even if the casualty rates can remain as high as they are now, they still have a lot of population to draw from. It could still be more than a year away before we see any significant effects. Expect a winter slowdown, but perhaps also the unusual summer heat will have a slowing effect. And it takes a lot of ammunition to keep these casualty rates high, I’m sorry to say.

  43. 43.

    Jay

    @Sally:

    almost 90% of ruZZian homes don’t have running water, garbage pick up,  natural gas, electricity, etc.

    Basically, outside Moscow, Saint Petersburg and a few other elite places, ruZZian MIR is 17th century. Shit in a bucket, dump it in the street, which is just dirt, it’s not even gravel.

  44. 44.

    Sally

    @Jay: Yes, I know this. It doesn’t alter my point. Those poor areas and people have little say and less sway. They are easily repressed. It’s in the cities where the effects of labor shortages are already being felt, that might ultimately become more visibly angry, and less easily repressed. There are cities other than Moscow and St Pete. I am not Cassandra, though, so I can only have a guess at something that would be over eighteen months away.

  45. 45.

    frosty

    @Jay: Our response will be swift. No trade, no crossing borders, no flights …

    I’m glad I finally got to Banff this year then. It doesn’t bode well for my cousin who owns one of the Thousand Islands … on the Canadian side.

    I can’t say the USA wouldn’t deserve being a pariah nation in those circumstances, though.

  46. 46.

    way2blue

    @Adam L Silverman: And Trump will start getting briefings this week as the Republican candidate designee.  Any chance a convicted felon only gets the Cliff Notes version?

  49. 49.

    wjca

    @way2blue: Trump will start getting briefings this week as the Republican candidate designee.  Any chance a convicted felon only gets the Cliff Notes version?

    Ah, but will he?  Sure, it’s a usual courtesy.   But only a courtesy.

    But for someone who stole (there’s really no other word for it) classified documents, and then made zero effort to safeguard them?  (Note, I don’t consider the speculations about who he might have shared them with.)   It would be obviously risky to tell him anything.  Well, unless the administration wanted to try using him as a conduit for disinformation.

Comments are closed.