Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

Everybody saw this coming.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

Found liable for massive fraud, is required to post a massive bond, gets a break, then files a *fraudulent* bond!

Republicans do not pay their debts.

I desperately hope that, yet again, I am wrong.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 874: Ukraine Falls Back from Krynky

War for Ukraine Day 874: Ukraine Falls Back from Krynky

by | 26 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

A painting by Ukrainian artist NEIVANMADE. The words "NEVER AGAIN" are repeated over and over, from left to right and top to bottom, in a faded, washed out black against a white background. Red, the color of blood, runs and drips down across 2/3rds of the painting. "WHILE YOU TOLERATE TYRANTS" is written/painted in the bottom white corner below the three rows of "NEVER AGAIN".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing very well in her week off between treatments. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Last night commenter strange visitor (from another planet) asked:

 have two questions:

1) how come the tank in the Spanish tweet isn’t a leopard 2 A4?
2) is the YouTuber Anders Puck Nielsen a reliable source?

Sorry I didn’t answer last night, I had racked out by the time you posted your questions. I think the answer to question 1 is that they used a stock photo in the tweet. As to Nielsen, he is a captain in the Royal Danish Navy who is assigned to the Royal Danish Defense College. I’ve used some of his posts before and I have no reason to believe he is not reliable. That said, I only use YouTube to watch music videos, so I can’t speak to anything in his or anyone else’s videos there. Also, I don’t listen to podcasts, nor do I do audiobooks.

Krynky, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the village of Krynky on the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda sources in Ukraine’s Marine Corps; Suspilne, Ukraine’s public broadcaster, with reference to a source in the defence forces

Details: The military reports that this happened several weeks ago.

Earlier, DeepState analysts reported that the Russians had occupied the village of Urozhaine in Donetsk Oblast.

Background: 

Ukrainian troops gained a foothold in Krynky in October 2023. Since then, the Russian forces have tried to drive the Ukrainian forces out of Krynky almost every day, as regularly mentioned in the daily reports of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

First, it is amazing that Ukraine managed to maintain OPSEC on this. Second, the Ukrainian Marines held Krynky for a long time and bled the Russians heavily before they performed this reported retrograde to their fallback position across the Dnipro.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Some Much-Needed Negotiations Are Scheduled for This Week, Including Those on Weapons – Address by the President

16 July 2024 – 18:59

Dear Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day. Today I held a meeting of the Staff; I also spoke with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych, Minister of Defense Umerov, Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine Budanov, and Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Maliuk. They reported on all the main directions on the frontline – from the hottest, such as the Pokrovsk direction, to those that are currently calmer but still require attention and proper supply. We are working very thoroughly on all of this, both in terms of weapons deliveries, which means fulfilling our existing agreements with partners, and ensuring fast logistics for each announced package, and also of weapons production in Ukraine – this is an absolute priority, and every month it should be felt that Ukraine is becoming more independent in terms of weapons supply. They also reported today on the manning of our brigades, and I thank everyone involved in this process. We have the necessary dynamics, and we must do everything to ensure that the formed brigades can give us more potential for rotations and support for those on the forefront.

I also held a meeting today on our international work: some much-needed negotiations are scheduled for this week, including those on weapons.

And one more thing that is definitely worth mentioning. I signed two documents today. The first is a decree on honoring our warriors with state awards. 266 surnames. Warriors from various units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. They all fully deserve our respect. And the second document – I have initiated a draft law that is capable of restoring justice when it comes to who we honor and who has lost the right to any respect from Ukrainians as a result of their own actions. This is a draft law on amendments to the Criminal Code of Ukraine, the Criminal Procedure Code of Ukraine and other legislative acts of Ukraine on revoking state awards for popularizing or propagandizing the aggressor state or committing other illegal actions against Ukraine. This applies to those who have received state awards of Ukraine, including the title of Hero of Ukraine, the Order of Merit and others, but have chosen not to side with Ukraine, have chosen the enemy and are currently supporting Russia in one way or another, or even reside on its territory. We need a legal mechanism to actually deprive such persons of all state awards of Ukraine and honorary titles. The only “title” they deserve is that of traitors. And their “reward” will be accountability to Ukraine and our people for everything they have done against Ukraine, against our state, against our independence. I ask the Verkhovna Rada to consider this draft law in the near future.

I thank everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine! I thank everyone who is helping!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

The reason:

Hungary:

The Financial Times has the details:

Donald Trump will quickly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins November’s US presidential election and has developed “well-founded plans” for doing so, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has claimed after private discussions with the Republican candidate.

That prospect means the EU should reopen direct diplomatic communication with Russia and start “high-level” negotiations with China to find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine, the Hungarian prime minister said in a private letter to EU leaders following consultations in Moscow and Beijing.

Orbán also said in the letter that on the basis of his recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the “general observation” was “that the intensity of the military conflict will radically escalate in the near future”. Moscow has relied heavily on Beijing to prosecute the conflict.

Orbán’s office declined to comment when contacted by the Financial Times, which has seen his letter. Trump’s campaign team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

His trips to see Putin, Xi and Trump over the past two weeks while holding the EU’s rotating presidency have shocked his allies in the bloc and Nato.

Many fear Orbán’s support for a peace settlement while Russia still controls vast amounts of eastern Ukraine plays into the Kremlin’s hands and undermines western resolve in support of Kyiv’s territorial integrity.

“We can expect no peace initiative coming from [Trump] until the elections. I can however surely state that shortly after his election victory, he will not wait until his inauguration, but will be ready to act as a peace broker immediately,” Orbán wrote in his letter sent to European Council president Charles Michel and other EU leaders. “He has detailed and well-founded plans for this.”

That means the EU should anticipate the shift in US policy, Orbán said, and either embrace the need for immediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine or take on more responsibility for funding Ukraine’s defence.

In response, Michel wrote back on Tuesday warning Orbán that he had “no role” in representing the EU internationally, had been given no mandate to do so, and had been informed of this prior to his diplomatic tour.

“The most direct way to peace is for Russia to withdraw all of its forces from Ukraine and respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity,” Michel wrote in a letter seen by the FT, adding that “no discussion about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine”.

JD Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio who Trump on Monday selected as his running mate, used an opinion piece in the FT in February to call for Europe to take on a larger burden in supporting Ukraine.

Orbán wrote in his letter: “I am more than convinced that in the likely outcome of the victory of President Trump, the proportion of the financial burden between the US and the EU will significantly change to the EU’s disadvantage when it comes to the financial support of Ukraine.”

The Hungarian prime minister has long been the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, criticising western sanctions on Moscow and military support for Ukraine while demanding a ceasefire in the war and peace talks.

That is in contrast to the EU’s joint position that it should aid Ukraine’s defence and that only Kyiv can decide on when to open negotiations with Russia.

“Our European strategy in the name of transatlantic unity has copied the pro-war policy of the US,” Orbán wrote.

“We have not had a sovereign and independent European strategy or political action plan up to now. I propose discussing whether the continuation of this policy is rational in the future.”

He told EU leaders: “We can find a window of opportunity with a strong moral and rational basis to begin a new chapter in our policy . . . [and] make an effort to decrease tensions and/or create the conditions for a temporary ceasefire and/or start peace negotiations.”

More at the link.

Apparently someone at the Ukrainian MOD is a Green Lantern fan:

Christopher Rufo most deeply wounded.

Pokrovsk:

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

The Novomykhailivka axis:

Kyiv:

Manhush near Russian occupied Mariupol:

Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast:

From The Kyiv Independent:

The death toll of a Russian attack against Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast on July 14 has risen to three as rescue operations had concluded, the Interior Ministry said on July 16.

Myrnohrad, a town less than 20 kilometers (under 12 miles) west of the front line, came under a Russian missile attack over the weekend, damaging a residential building and an administrative building.

Seven people were injured in the attack, and seven more were rescued from the rubble by first responders, the Interior Ministry said.

Donetsk Oblast, partially occupied by Russia since 2014, suffers some of the heaviest daily attacks by Russia while Moscow’s troops are pushing forward in multiple directions.

Over the past day, eight people were injured in Russian strikes, Governor Vadym Filashkin said in his morning report on July 16.

Kharkiv:

Moscow:

4 year old Kim Geum Chol, a man who was leading the North Korean delegation of military training officials to Moscow has drowned in a pond near Moscow.

As said, he went to the Angstrem beach in Zelenograd, near Moscow, and disappeared.

His colleagues contacted the police. They searched for several hours, but nothing was found. Today the body surfaced in the pond.
https://theins.ru/amp/news/273133

Back on the 9th of July Reuters published an article regarding his visit to Russia:

“A North Korean elite military training delegation has left for a visit to Russia, the North’s state media said on Tuesday, the first military exchange between the two countries since their leaders signed a pact pledging closer military cooperation.

The president of the Kim Il Sung Military University, Kim Geum Chol, is leading the delegation of military training officials and departed by plane on Monday, KCNA state news agency reported.”
https://reuters.com/world/elite-north-korea-military-trainees-visit-russia-amid-deepening-ties-2024-07-09/

Photo shows a pond where Kim Geum Chol drowned.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adorable adjacent material.

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok.

@patron__dsns

👽 #песпатрон

♬ Originalton – Natalie

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

26Comments

  1. 1.

    japa21

    Regarding Krynky, I am amazed Ukraine held on to it so long.

    And, as usual, thank you Adam.

  2. 2.

    Gin & Tonic

    Couple of brief-ish follow-ups on some comments that were posted late last night, after I posted my travel report.

    First, J. Arthur Crank asked about my son’s language abilities – he is fluent in Ukrainian, has traveled in the country extensively, and even lived in Kyiv for a year a couple of years back. He also has a competent reading knowledge of russian, as is required by his work. In fact all of my children, and now grandchildren, are at least bi-lingual.

    Second, in an unrelated context Jay commented about the shithole nature of much of rural russia: mud streets, decaying housing stock, little indoor plumbing, etc. I think most of you who are interested enough to be regulars in these threads have seen pictures. The contrast with rural Ukraine is stark. Since we borrowed a car from a friend, we drove around 500 kilometers, largely in the areas between cities, in several cases visiting very small rural villages, and saw nothing of that sort anywhere. Even in the smallest villages, houses were well-kept, invariably with a small garden plot growing potatoes, onions, cucumbers, etc., had electrical and gas service and pretty clearly indoor plumbing. Certainly conditions are terrible in the eastern areas under shelling and occupation, but in the west, people live fairly comfortably. In the small villages nobody is rich, of course, but nobody is living in the poverty and destitution you see in, say, Buryatia.

    In the next day or two I’ll post at more length about what we observed driving around, in terms of land use, road conditions, security, etc.

  4. 4.

    Lyrebird

    Thank you Adam, and hooray G&T!

    I think there’s an embedding mixup: You have the fried eggs in twice, and not an embed with any pictures of Katerina’s cute Patron & Cat creations.  I hope she finds a way off of Twitter to have a store, too, just bc I do not have an account.

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: My WAG is that he was a close associate of a faction purged by Xi, & his flight from the PRC & early opposition to the CPC regime was genuine. That is why the Chinese government tried multiple ways, above & below board, to get him back to the PRC. Then he tried to get back I. The regimes’s good graces, by turning his malevolence toward other Chinese dissidents overseas, as well as making inroads w/ the reactionaries (which I think was motivated by a desire to find patrons that might guarantee his safety as well as means to make money off naive suckers). I think he is a cynical & unscrupulous charlatan entirely motivated by survival, self-enrichment & self-aggrandizement.

    I am not sure if Guo has actually been an asset run by the Chinese MSS all these years, but his actions in the last few years have largely had the same effect.

  9. 9.

    strange visitor (from another planet)

    thanks adam. so how does that shit work, fibberache just gets to run his own foreign policy out of office? is the logan act a(nother) dead letter?

  10. 10.

    Anoniminous

    Estimations of the number of T-54/55 tanks built run from 80,000 to 100,000.  Russia started using them in 2023.  In the video they are ‘bare armor.’  That means the Carl Gustaf 8.4cm recoilless Rifle’s FFV551, FFV651, and FFV751 HEAT rounds can take ’em.  And at under $1,000 a round it would be worth it to send Ukraine a hundred thousand or so.

  15. 15.

    Hilbertsubspace

    @strange visitor (from another planet): I recall several republicans* in congress writing to Iran during the Obama administration, asking Iran to hold off on signing some agreement.  They promised better terms (lol) if Iran waited for Romney to get elected.

    So the Logan Act has been ignored for some time now.  Prior to that the Republicans violated the Act much more carefully and quietly.

    *I seem to recall Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas was one of the signers.  Tom Cotton who wrote “Send tanks into Portland” in a NYT opinion piece.

  17. 17.

    NutmegAgain

    Hey, Adam, how is the Go Fund Me money holding out?  You will tell us if a refresher is needed, right? And I am so glad that Rosie is doing well. Paws crossed.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    @Gin & Tonic: Thank you for these posts on your travels.  They’re very interesting and well told.

    road conditions

    I have a recollection that every early on in these updates by Adam you said the roads in Ukraine were generally terrible.  I would be curious to know if they’ve changed since you visited before.  (I could see them wearing out faster from heavy mechanized traffic, or could see them improved from substantial investment since they’re essential for national defense.)

    Thanks very much.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  22. 22.

    J. Arthur Crank

    @Gin & Tonic:   Thanks for the answer.  I know a few children of immigrants that only speak English, and others that are bilingual or trilingual.

    I always admire people who are able to be fluent in more than one language.  I have toddler-level proficiency in a few languages (i.e. I can name barnyard animals, I can say I am hungry, I can say I need to poo, etc.), but I was never able to get over the hump and get to the point where I could take a class on the language, fully understand a movie, function as a spy, etc.

  23. 23.

    Hilbertsubspace

    @strange visitor (from another planet): It’s still an unauthorized negotiation by (American) citizens.  Had they run the plan by the administration first it would have been legal, but they didn’t because they were undermining them.

    Iran told the White House about the letter, and asked “What’s going on over there?”

    Also, this was in 2015 not 2012 like I thought.  Romney as a candidate was out of the picture.

  24. 24.

    wjca

    @Hilbertsubspace: So the Logan Act has been ignored for some time now.

    Specifically, only two individuals have ever been indicted for violating the Logan Act.  One in 1802 and the other in 1852.  (Neither were convicted.)

    So, most recent attempt (by the government) to invoke it a was mere century and a half ago.  Successful prosecutions: zero.  Which rather suggests that it ain’t easy to make a case under it.

  25. 25.

    wjca

    @strange visitor (from another planet): they were republican senators, not private citizens.

    Per the Constitution, foreign policy is the purview of the Executive Branch.  So, unless specifically authorized by the President, members of Congress are private citizens.

    EDT Hilbertsubspace got there first.

  26. 26.

    Jay

    @Another Scott:

    I may be wrong, but I think that Gin and Tonic was comparing Ukrainian roads and highways to US roads and highways.

    In the ruZZian attack on Kyiv most of the roads the ruZZian’s were trying to push their massive columns down were 2 lane, dirt shoulders outside villages and suburbs, in the villages and suburbs there were almost no sidewalks or shoulders, and front yards and fences were with in easy molotov cocktail range.

Comments are closed.