Biden: I have been young, and now am old; yet have I not seen the righteous forsaken pic.twitter.com/gNNvz1EATl
— Acyn (@Acyn) July 16, 2024
“I know what a Black job is — it’s the Vice President of the United States. I know what a Black job is – it’s the first Black President in American history, Barack Obama!”
🔥🔥🔥
— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) July 16, 2024
Black supporters of President Biden chant
“FOUR MORE YEARS!” at the rally he held in Philly because they know he has their back and he deliversBiden is on 🔥 in this 🧵of clips
💙 “Promises made, and promises kept” — President Biden” 💙 #VoteBidenHarris2024 https://t.co/VsswQb9vaH
— 🗽 🇺🇸 Liberty & Justice 4 All 🇺🇸 🗽 (@frey_keith) July 16, 2024
President Biden: If you're going to talk about standing against violence, you must stand against all violence. We stand against violence perpetrated against presidential candidates in Pennsylvania. We stand against violence perpetrated against George Floyd in Minnesota. We stand… pic.twitter.com/tjNMyWokcq
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) July 16, 2024
These are desperately needed reforms to restore some semblance of legitimacy and sanity to the Supreme Court, but they won't be passed unless we hold onto the White House and Senate and take back the House this year. Get everyone you know out to vote Democratic. https://t.co/v4ppAGNV3g
— Argella Stone (@argellastone) July 16, 2024
This initiative deserves its own post, but here’s a place-marker gift link:
President Biden is finalizing plans to endorse major changes to the Supreme Court in the coming weeks, including proposals for legislation to establish term limits for the justices and an enforceable ethics code, according to two people briefed on the plans.
He is also weighing whether to call for a constitutional amendment to eliminate broad immunity for presidents and other constitutional officeholders, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
The announcement would mark a major shift for Biden, a former chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, who has long resisted calls to make substantive changes to the high court. The potential changes come in response to growing outrage among his supporters about recent ethics scandals surrounding Justice Clarence Thomas and decisions by the new court majority that have changed legal precedent on issues including abortion and federal regulatory powers…
Eight Democratic senators have co-sponsored a bill that would establish 18-year terms for Supreme Court justices, with a new justice appointed every two years. The nine most recently appointed justices would sit for appellate jurisdiction cases, while others would be able to hear original jurisdiction cases or to step in as a substitute if one of the most recent nine is conflicted or cannot hear a case for another reason…
President Biden wants billionaires to pay their FAIR share.
When that happens, the economy grows for everyone—not just the 1%. pic.twitter.com/agRkQlhxRS
— CAP Action (@CAPAction) July 16, 2024
BR
I like his framing. I hadn’t previously been impressed by his speechwriting team, but he and they are rising to the occasion.
CaseyL
So…only Biden supporters are outraged? Is that what the article is saying?
Only supporters of President Biden are outraged by corruption on SCOTUS? Everyone else is fine with it?
Belafon
@CaseyL: among the people I work with, they’re either happy with the decision or it ranks well below things like immigration, inflation, amd keeping women from having abortions.
zhena gogolia
Thanks for this post! Cheers me up!
zhena gogolia
@CaseyL: Well, it’s true, isn’t it?
Chief Oshkosh
@CaseyL:
Yes, especially the MSM and GOP.
SATSQ
Caveatimperator
@CaseyL:
Have you MET Trump supporters? Some of them literally have argued that breaking the rules and getting away with it means you’re smart.
Scamp Dog
@CaseyL: I don’t know what the author meant by that, but you could take it to mean that he’s responding to changes in what his supporters (and the rest of the party) are thinking. I’ve heard a lot of talk about how he’s moved along with the mainstream of the Democratic Party, and this is an example of that.
I hope other Americans are outraged by the current behavior of the court. Some independents might be, but very few Republicans, I’m sure.
Soprano2
They updated our work computers to Windows 11 last night. So far I’m not impressed with the changes. It went from me being able to easily pin documents to the taskbar to now it being a 4 step process. Of course, it unpinned everything I had pinned on there. Do.Not.Like
cmorenc
Reality is that most people I have talked to who will vote for Biden anyways and abhor Trump are horrified by the impression they got of him as an addled old man at the debate. That’s not a bell he can un-ring, and those are the predominate portion of people who will vote for him anyways. I know this is not a popular take here at BJ, but I’ve been listening to enough folks who are with us, but don’t hang out on progressive blogs
I agree this isn’t helping for the sniping within the D house caucus to be out so open – but frankly the meme in here that Biden’s all right, it was just a bad night, isn’t selling with much of the base or the general public, a majority of whom do find Trump distasteful. They hate their available choices.
JML
@CaseyL: the DC intelligentsia cares far more about treating the circles of power in the federal government as their personal club in which they get to decide who is admitted and who is not truly legitimate than such petty things like whether Clarence Thomas is a corrupt shitbag. Having Scalia wave at them at the opera was always more important than whether or not he was an epic hypocrite. It’s been like this for a loooong time. And it’s part of why we should never, ever, have another candidate get picked by the “back room” ever again.
TBone
Man, what is that whiff I smell in here? Again.
zhena gogolia
@cmorenc: Did you ask them to watch any of his many appearances since then? Did you remind them that he was sick that night? Did you ask them to watch any given Trump rally?
zhena gogolia
@TBone: I know, I should know better.
Another Scott
18 years seems to me to be far too long.
10 might be reasonable (2.5 presidential terms).
Biden’s thoughtful on this stuff, and I recognize that whatever he proposes or supports at this time is unlikely to get through the process unchanged, but if we’re going to make changes, then they must be substantive changes that address the issues because we’re unlikely to get another chance for another long while.
1) The SCOTUS has grabbed too much power.
2) The members of the SCOTUS are not accountable to anyone.
3) The country is changing rapidly, and must change rapidly because of the multitude of dangers we face. Someone appointed 20-30-40 years ago probably cannot meet the moment, and the political considerations then should not dictate the response now.
Fight for 15!!
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone 😊 😊 😊
TBone
@zhena gogolia: it’s early yet. I was tempted as well.
O. Felix Culpa
The President is doing a bang-up job in his speeches. I’m glad he’s reaching out especially to the Democratic base, and their response to him is uplifting. He offers an impressive list of accomplishments and a positive vision for this country. The other side offers neither. I know which side I’m working for.
SiubhanDuinne
@CaseyL:
Yup. The writer could have said something like “growing public outrage” and not politicised it. But that’s not the WaPo way.
rikyrah
I don’t know how I missed this from Senator Warnock doing his other job.
Tell it, Rev.👏🏾👏🏾
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZPRodUvcn/
rikyrah
@CaseyL:
Well, the GOP doesn’t care about the corruption
cmorenc
@zhena gogolia:
That DOESN’T MATTER. The image of that Thursday night has been burned into too many minds for him to make up with appearances that frankly aren’t being all that widely watched. True, they don’t like what they see of Trump either, but that doesn’t get us the enthusiastic turnout we need, however much we love Joe and his accomplishments.
TBone
Propublica still out here doing gawd’s work. Devin Nunes thought he could slip this under the radar, and he almost did. Almost, but NOT.
https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-media-stock-sale-shares-truth-social-yorkville-advisors
Dotard social media hellhole selling shares through a shit intermediary. Have a cow.
O. Felix Culpa
@rikyrah: That was awesome. Senator Rev. Warnock is a force. Thank you.
CaseyL
My comment was aimed at how the article was written in such a way as to indicate that only Biden supporters were outraged; i.e., that corruption on the Court just wasn’t a concern to Americans but only to “Biden supporters.” Not even “Democrats” in general, but just “Biden supporters.”
IOW, the article normalizes Thomas’ (and Alito’s, and Kavanaugh’s, etc.) corruption that subtle way. And also takes a dig at Biden supporters, by implying SCOTUS corruption is nothing more than an electoral issue.
MomSense
@TBone:
Maybe you should dazzle us with another small penis retort.
Sorry but I am really upset by the behavior of jackals to long time commenters, myself included.
I’m upset and hurt and even though it’s not the first time this has happened to me at this blog it still stings.
Chief Oshkosh
@cmorenc: Meh, just more shitposting.
Hope your day gets better.
O. Felix Culpa
@CaseyL:
I think we need to abandon the notion that our major press outlets are neutral. I used to think they provided more or less unbiased journalism wrt domestic politics, but the data since at least 2016 (one could argue earlier) strongly suggests otherwise.
It’s good to call them out for their slanted framing and cherry-picking and sometimes downright dishonesty, but at this point, they’re meeting expectations. We should no longer be surprised.
TBone
@MomSense: I haven’t said anything about your commentary or your opinions – I studiously avoided it because you are a good person.
I did insult other bots and/or trolls. But not you. You don’t have a penis, as far as I know.
I hope your new hairdo is behaving itself 😘 like Joan Jett would.
Princess
Biden speaks to every issue I care about most. He’s accomplished more on these issues than any other president in my lifetime.
Soprano2
@CaseyL: I agree, it’s subtle but it’s definitely there, the idea that corruption on the Supreme Court is a political issue rather than being a problem all Americans should be concerned about.
matt
@CaseyL: Yeah, antiabortion kooks are perfectly happy with Roe being overturned by people who are bribed to do it.
cmorenc
@Chief Oshkosh:
Get out and actually *listen* to what most non-political junkie normies are saying about Biden, including the many who will vote for him anyways as vastly preferable to Trump. Get off your cruise boat on De Nile. We are going to be in a world of shit unless we can adequately triage the damage that’s been done. La la la I can’t hear you is not a constructive response. I agree that all the sniping out in the open is not either, but I am not the enemy. But I’m not deluded that right now we’re winning this on the current path.
schrodingers_cat
Mute the Biden skeptics. They are here to depress enthusiasm, waste your time and spread doom. There is zero point in having the same discussion the 100th time
First they were middleeast foreign policy experts, then they became experts in geriartic medicine and now they are all statisticians and pollsters
I wonder how many of the BUT HIZ POLLS people could even pass a Stats 101 quiz.
Chief Oshkosh
@CaseyL: Yep, you are entirely correct, IMO. The press has completely bought into the right’s meme that anything a Democrat does is for re-election purposes, while anything a Republican does is to serve The Lord Jesus Christ and The Free Market.
Recognizing and proposing solutions to fix corruption on the nation’s highest court? Puh-leeze. That’s just Biden pandering to his base.
Soprano2
@cmorenc: But they’re going to vote for him. Their vote counts the same as every other vote. I agree this is a problem – it’s kind of like how one “oh shit” wipes out ten “attaboys” – people remember the one bad thing, not the many many good things they’ve seen. All we can do is to keep talking to them, and keep suggesting that perhaps they should watch clips from the speech he gave yesterday to the NAACP, or the one he gave last Friday night. You say it doesn’t matter, but as time goes on it might. Sounds like you’ve given up.
Eyeroller
@cmorenc: Then they are looking for an excuse not to vote for him. Lots of people watched the NATO news conference. More people watched Biden’s recent interview than watched the first night of the RNC. There is plenty of anecdata the other way in the form of interviews with voters who were able to change their minds when they saw new information. (Edit: people who were voting for him regardless but now have full confidence.)
Soprano2
@MomSense: I’m sorry you’re hurt, yeah I’ve seen some stuff that was beyond the pale that’s disturbing. Everyone is raw and on a razor’s edge, that’s for sure. We’re all terrified of another TCFG presidency, and that’s coming out in some bad ways.
O. Felix Culpa
@Soprano2: Please, please, please do not feed troll, or if you prefer, bad faith interlocutor. Speaking for myself at least, this “conversation” is deader than dead. It’s been hashed through eleventy times eleventy times. Do not want yet another rehash. Gratefully yours, O. Felix.
Soprano2
So what are you doing to accomplish this? Do you have any constructive suggestions for us, or is it just doom doom doom all the time?
The Red Pen
I have to say that I am very proud of my intrepid spouse. After we watched a report of a “senior Democratic insider” saying that the Democrats have “resigned themselves” to a “second Trump term,” my wife picked up the phone and called the office of Democratic Caucus chairman Henry Aguilar and left him a message. She rambled a bit, but the gist was, “We’re out here donating, volunteering, and supporting Joe Biden and the party and ‘senior Democrats’ are down in Washington conceding the election months before it happens! WTAF? This may be no skin off your back, but if Trump wins, it’s going to be hell for a lot of people including women, minorities, LGBTQ people, union members, the working poor [the list went on a bit]. We can’t fight for a side that’s already surrendered. Do your jobs as a political party and get Joe Biden elected.”
It does help to call or write.
Soprano2
@The Red Pen: I wish I had a Democratic congressperson or senator I could contact. :-(
cain
@Soprano2: but now you have AI !
Eolirin
@cmorenc: It may not be selling, but it’s fundamentally true.
He’s not addled. He’s just old, and has a stutter that’s gotten worse because he’s old.
If people can’t tell the difference, if people aren’t paying attention to all the other appearances he’s made, if everyone’s going to rely on cut down and selected soundbites that are deliberately slanted to create that impression, and we can’t convince them otherwise, then we just have to try to win regardless.
And if people have those concerns and look at Trump, who is constantly falling asleep at long events, and can’t form coherent sentences, who breaks into weird asides like with the sharks or Hannibal Lector and doesn’t seem particularly responsive to being asked questions and simply takes a few words and breaks into exactly the same rambling incoherent rants every time and don’t think that’s even more disqualifying… Then it’s not really about fitness it’s about Kamala. Or the people in question have no way to evaluate fitness other than how shouty and confident sounding someone is. And that’s a fucking low bar to be unable to get over.
Either way it’ll still be bullshit. As much bullshit as Hillary was a crook is. That cost us an election. This could too. But it’ll be because the American people are too ignorant to be believed and not because they had a point in their concerns.
Soprano2
@O. Felix Culpa: Sorry, I did want to know if this person has any constructive suggestions for things to do that would help the situation they are wringing their hands about over and over again.
zhena gogolia
Candy canes are delicious!
TBone
Another celebration of our advantages derailed?
Chief Oshkosh
@cmorenc: Man, the arrogance of this guy.
Does it ever occur to you that many of us here have already gone through what you’re still stuck on, and have moved on to trying solutions?
To borrow your phrasing: If you just actually *listen* to what we’re saying, actually *watch* what we’re doing, you might move forward, too.
Again, I hope your day gets better.
zhena gogolia
@Soprano2: I tried that. Didn’t work.
O. Felix Culpa
@Soprano2: Not slagging on you, but they wouldn’t be hand-wringing over and over and over again for DAYS if they were interested in constructive suggestions, which have been offered aplenty. Their role is as naysayer and doom-spreader, whether for personal gratification or something else. We need to stop engaging. It’s the only way to move on and talk about other things of interest.
gvg
@CaseyL: People who are outraged are going to drift towards being Biden/democrat supporters and be repelled from those who aren’t for doing anything about it, and vice versa. This is how voters sort themselves out every election.
Sometimes, it shapes the parties.
It may cause lukewarm or obstructionist democrats to lose primaries.
If it causes BIG enough republican loses, they will change. If it doesn’t, they will get worse and collect some of our former voters who are Pro corruption.
There are other big issues competing for attention now that may conflict for some people, so it won’t be entirely clear.
Soprano2
@cain: Yeah, and what would I do with that? I want my easily pinned documents back! You have to go 1) create a shortcut on your desktop, 2) right click on it, go to “properties” and type “explorer” at the beginning of the text in the target field, then 3) right click on the shortcut and tell it to pin to the taskbar. Before, the document was on my “recently opened” ones on the taskbar, all I had to do was click on the pin icon next to it and it was pinned! Why did they get rid of that functionality in favor of the mess I just posted above?
zhena gogolia
Biden has been giving fantastic speeches. On top of all his real-world accomplishments that I would like to give him and Harris a chance to build on in the next four years.
Soprano2
@O. Felix Culpa: True, I guess it’s time for pie. I hate using the pie filter.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Soprano2: I hate updates in general. Why? Why ?
O. Felix Culpa
@Chief Oshkosh: Dude, for the love of all that is holy, stop engaging. Talk about the weather instead, if you must. But do not feed troll.
Eolirin
@Another Scott: It’s 18 so that they can do a two year rotation, with a new judge added every two years. So every presidential term there’d be two judges appointed. Two terms gives you 4 judges, so no one president would ever be able to set the majority of seats.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
I was thinking just yesterday that I wanted to see what Black Democrats were thinking about the Biden situation, and it sounds like I have a decent answer.
And yeah, things might look bleak, but we have to keep fighting and believing we can win. I was a low-level volunteer with the Kerry campaign in 2004, and we never gave up believing we could win, whatever the oddsmakers said. You just can’t give in to despair if you’re going to have a chance to overcome adversity.
And Joe Biden may be four years older and feeling his years, but he’s still the same guy who overcame all of Trump’s incumbency advantages four years ago.
cmorenc
@Soprano2: No, I haven’t given up. If Biden is going to stay at the top of the ticket, the House D rebels need to STFU, but I don’t think they will because of the sort of reaction normies got from the debate. The momentum has to be changed somehow, and soon.
Soprano2
@schrodingers_cat: True, it doesn’t seem to matter how many people here who have experience with people who have dementia tell them that Biden doesn’t have dementia, they refuse to believe it because they think that’s what they saw. It’s kind of sad, actually.
O. Felix Culpa
@Soprano2: I’ve become happy using it. Being open-minded does not mean you need to wade through obvious rat-infested garbage. And you can always toggle if someone you trust has posted a comment.
Soprano2
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I know, it’s not broke why are you screwing with it? Luckily the pin function within Excel is still the same, so I can use it there, but it was convenient to be able to pin and unpin documents from the start bar.
CaseyL
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
This is probably very bad computer hygiene, but lately I’ve been ignoring/dismissing software upgrade prompts altogether, as long as the program the updates are for is still working adequately.
My reasoning, based on experience, is that once a program does what you want it to do, “upgrades” are the opposite: they take away features you like and replace them with features you don’t need. Or even features you don’t want – I figure nowadays “upgrades” contain a lot of spyware, whether for AI scraping or data harvesting.
(I can’t stop the automatic upgrades, or the ones that come through UW’s central IT hub, but stuff like Skype – yeah, I can ignore those.)
Omnes Omnibus
Jesus Christ, people. Learn the difference between a troll and pessimistic commenter. Lord knows that I am as down on doomerism as anyone on this blog, but some people are being awful to commenters who have built up an awful lot of goodwill over the years. If they are making you crazy pie them for a while.
Princess
@MomSense: I’m glad to see you here.
Kay
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
There’s actually a survey of just black women – huge sample size. I think it was a great idea (by The Cut) – I don’t think anyone else is doing it. They also asked which issues are most important to them.
O. Felix Culpa
@Soprano2: They refuse to believe –or at least say they refuse to believe–because they have a shit-stirring agenda.
Soprano2
@O. Felix Culpa: I don’t mind using it with the obvious trolls, but when it’s someone who’s posted here a lot I hesitate to use it. Makes me feel sad.
3Sice
@zhena gogolia:
This is great news for anonymous senior Democratic insiders!
schrodingers_cat
@O. Felix Culpa: The pie filter is like BJ’s mute button. I have used it generously. My pie filter had two people before the debate now it has about twenty.
Maxim
@rikyrah: Good stuff.
The Thin Black Duke
@Eolirin: (mic drop)
BR
There may be value in Biden doing the talk show circuit, like Colbert, Kimmel, Meyers, and maybe The View. Get out there in person and speak from the heart. That will reach people who otherwise wouldn’t watch the recent speeches and interviews.
Princess
@O. Felix Culpa: cmorenc is not a troll. He(she?) is a poster you disagree with. Pie, if you need to, and go on with your day.
O. Felix Culpa
@Soprano2: I understand. I was reluctant to do it for the same reasons. But repeated and ongoing shit is shit, regardless of the source. (I don’t mean honest disagreement, which is fine, I mean nonstop banging on the same fucking drum for weeks!) They can always be removed from the pie case if and when they move on.
Soprano2
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m trying to be nice to people who aren’t obvious trolls, but sometimes it’s hard. I get being scared – we’re all terrified of another TCFG presidency, but the doom doom doom stuff all the time certainly doesn’t help your side win. It’s demoralizing.
O. Felix Culpa
@Princess: They are engaging in trollish behavior, which as I said in #75 is banging on the same fucking drum for weeks, operating as a bad faith interlocutor, and repeatedly derailing threads. They can come out of my pie case when they stop. YMMV.
And now I’m out. Enjoy engaging in the same merry-go-round ” discussions” if that floats your boat.
Soprano2
So I had to move my cat’s follow-up appointment to this afternoon. He doesn’t seem to be getting better; if anything, I think he’s lost some more weight. He eats a little bit at a time. I think my husband let him outside last night – I should have taken my cat up to the bedroom last night and closed the door, but he hasn’t wanted to go outside for days so I didn’t think about that.
The Red Pen
@cmorenc:
Only, 33% of people who watched the debate thought Biden won. Obviously, those were the minority that actually listens to what they said, not how they said it.
But I’d also like to point out that Obama bombed in his first debate about Romney so badly that only 20% thought Obama won. The image of that terrible night was burned into too many minds for him to make up with appearances and Romney went on to win in a landslide. As we all remember. Because debates really, really matter.
JCJ
@The Red Pen: My wife doesn’t pay a lot of attention to (American*) politics, but she is furious with these morons sniping at Biden and already giving up.
*she follows politics in Thailand very closely
Omnes Omnibus
@Soprano2: So use the pie filter for a while. If it’s a longtime commenter, you don’t have to announce it. Just using it like a mute button on other social media. Check back on them in a couple of weeks. It’ll help keep you from saying something you will regret latter to a commenter you generally respect but don’t need to hear right now.
Eolirin
@Soprano2: Are you trying to pin an office document to the taskbar?
You can pin items to the jumplist so that they stay in the recently opened list. I think that’s the intended interaction pattern at this point. Then you just pin the app to the taskbar
If you’re trying to do this with something that doesn’t have a jumplist implemented, that’s more annoying. But I can’t imagine many people use their taskbar like that.
The Red Pen
@Soprano2: Aguilar isn’t our rep, he’s chairman of the Dem caucus. You can call a national figure like that.
We do have a Dem rep and two Dem Senators, but none of them have been stabbing Biden in the back.
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: Pie them.
WereBear
@TBone:
So that’s what the kids are calling it now.
SFAW
@O. Felix Culpa:
You, as well as many others here, have set a pretty low bar as regards “trollish behavior.”
Soprano2
@Eolirin: I think I misspoke, I had them pinned to the Start menu. I could right click on the start button and the menu would come up including my pinned documents. I guess I don’t know the proper terminology, the taskbar is that thing at the bottom of the screen right?
Was anyone here surprised that someone took a shot at TCFG? I’m listening to the O Boys, and they’re all shocked someone took a shot at him. I was shocked someone could get that close with a firearm, but I wasn’t surprised someone tried to kill him.
WereBear
@rikyrah: Multi-talent all right.
Omnes Omnibus
@SFAW: Up yours, troll.
SFAW
@Omnes Omnibus:
Excellent comment, thank you.
[You may think I’m being snarky or snide or a smartass; I’m not.]
SFAW
@Omnes Omnibus:
You’re just pissed because I still haven’t forgiven you for sending us Aaron Rodgers.
narya
@Omnes Omnibus: @Soprano2: @MomSense: Sliding right past the comment works, too . . . which I do, a lot, and did even before the recent outbreaks. There are a few commenters who set my teeth on edge, or do that on some topics, but whose voice I want to hear on others. Everything is fraught right now, and is going to feel that way for awhile
ETA: this is still my favorite place on the ‘tubes, and it’s because of the community here, even when some people are stomping on my last damn nerve. I try to take a breath and walk away, and still maintain my gratitude for you all, and minimize my comments as best I can.
Soprano2
@Omnes Omnibus: That’s a good idea. *sigh* I just hate having to do it, this has been a crazymaking three weeks for sure.
Kay
Good article on Vance’s extreme far Right position on womens rights. Ohio Democrats noticed he pulled down the abortion blurb he had when he ran for Senate – just disappeared. I’m amused conservative Catholicism allows this – it’s okay to lie (about abortion). Now they’re just like fundie Christians who have an actual “liar for the Lord” doctrine. They can lie to us because we’re stupd heathens and they’re here to control us.
rikyrah
Yes…why are the supervillains backing the Orange Menace?
https://x.com/smalls2672/status/1813523629004443985?t=qeBqXnxaf5RtXhpkLVkYQg&s=19
Eolirin
@Eolirin: Like, all of the office apps, if you rightclick their taskbar icon and hover over a file in the recent list will let you pin it to the jumplist right from the taskbar.
Caveatimperator
@Kay:
Nearly 20% of black women voting for Trump and another 10% for Kennedy? Sample size be damned, my bullshit detectors are firing pretty hard.
NotMax
FYI.
In case any have been on the fence about trying out a Roku device, very good sale prices across the board for Prime Days (last day of which is today).
Hint: if you have no inclination for listening via earphones, go for a model without a headphone jack on the remote and save more shekels that way.
Eolirin
@Soprano2: Ahhh. Okay yes, that’s not the same thing. Taskbar is the thing at the bottom yes. The Start menu is a little bit of a mess right now. There are some improvements on the way though. They reimplemented the whole thing to be on a different framework, for engineering reasons, and that’s lead to some feature reversions for some of the less used functionality.
Omnes Omnibus
@SFAW: No, I’m still mad about you not forgiving us for the Favre thing. I’ll get to Rodgers eventually. Maybe in 10 years or so when we send you Jordan Love.
Soprano2
@Kay: I shared that on Facebook this morning! I hope someone can find the doc he took off his web site, because once something’s on the internet it’s never truly gone.
Soprano2
@Eolirin: Not in Windows 11 you don’t. In Windows 10 it was super easy.
Llelldorin
I think the most interesting bit of data is that after weeks of the media running a constant “When Will Biden Drop Out?!” drumbeat, Biden’s popularity is actually drifting upwards.
It’s just possible that they overplayed their hand, here.
SFAW
@Omnes Omnibus:
Fair enough.
Kay
@Caveatimperator:
So they made it up? That seems like quite the scandal. I don’t think you can say “listen to black women!” and then completely dismiss a big survey of black women when it doesn’t fit your beliefs.
SFAW
@Llelldorin:
I hope you’re right, but we won’t reach that point until Dem officeholders stop questioning whether President Biden should resign/drop out, and some of them reverse themselves in a very public way.
Geminid
@The Red Pen: I call Rep. Aguilar “the other Mayor Pete.” Pete Aguilar served as Mayor of Redlands, California before he ran against a Republican Congressman and flipped the seat. I think that was in 2014.
Llelldorin
@Caveatimperator:
(1) Even with a large sample size, polling well is hard these days.
(2) People are weirder than anyone can possibly wrap their heads around. People in any given subgroup are nevertheless people, and are thus still weirder than anyone can ever wrap their heads around. The Rogers Crazification Factor applies to a poll of Black women as much as it does to the populace at large, and your stats add up pretty close to 27%.
Kay
@Caveatimperator:
I’m all for uncovering if The Cut and New York somehow manipulated their own poll of 1200 black women but I would suggest that should not be the go-to explanation, because it’s conspiratorial and probably not true. The most likely answer is they reported it straight.
hueyplong
@cmorenc: If you don’t state a suggested course of conduct then you might try a little introspection about how to get your own boat off the River DeNile about the fact that what you effectively are doing is dooming.
Foolish and dangerous as it may be, I’m reluctant to believe that normies rose their turtle necks up for debate night only and are now back in their impenetrable shells as reluctant but confirmed Trump voters.
Lots of things are going to happen between now and the election and some of them will be bad. More will be good and we’ll win. Dobbs isn’t going anywhere. Trump will continue to be unstable. Biden’s team already has him out and about and being different from how he was on debate night. Vance will generate a boatload of political ads.
Llelldorin
@SFAW: True. I’m encouraged that the reports seem to be drifting from named Democratic officials to unnamed Democratic officials to “Prominent Democrats” (which is only one hop away from “this dude I met in the bar last night”).
SFAW
@Kay:
Troll.
Yes, Kay, I’m kidding. Just thought I’d riff on how it’s becoming tougher to discern where the troll/not-a-troll line is these days.
Eolirin
@Soprano2: Yes it does. It just pins it to the top of the jumplist itself (for clarity that’s the context menu that opens up when you right click an icon on the taskbar, that’s the thing at the bottom of the screen. It’ll give you a list of most recently opened files and some other options for office apps). I double checked. But you’re talking start menu, so that’s entirely different.
Right now recently opened files will show up in the start menu’s recommended section at the bottom if you turn that on in settings, but there’s no way to pin stuff there.
Soprano2
@Kay: I agree that it’s counterproductive to dismiss a poll like that one. I hope someone in the Biden campaign is looking at it and mining it for information about how to target their efforts to this particular group of women.
Caveatimperator
@Kay: @LLelldorin
If it’s dishonest, it’s far more likely to be bottom up than top down. Either the respondents are lying about their identity or lying to the pollsters about who they want to vote for, just for giggles. I do not believe for a second that the pollster is manipulating the poll to produce this result.
I’m not doubting that some black women out there are utter nutjobs. Nutjobbery is a universally human trait. But results like this poll have never been seen in any election before. Trump didn’t get votes from black women that are even in this zip code.
Soprano2
@Eolirin: Thanks, that’s helpful. I see that the “pin” icon is crossed out, which makes me hope that eventually they’ll restore it. Interestingly enough the jumplist has the docs I had pinned there, and there’s a heading above them that says “pinned”. Hope they restore it soon!
TBone
@WereBear: 😆❤️❤️🇺🇸
Soprano2
Is anyone else seeing conspiracy theories about the assassination attempt on TCFG on their social media? I started seeing that crap today, and I’m pushing back on it. I sure do hope they figure out why this kid did what he did, because otherwise there will be a million ‘it was an inside job’ conspiracy theories out there.
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: A poll no matter how accurate is a snapshot in time not a predictor of the future. Asking a successful incumbent President who has won the nomination to step down is undemocratic and stupid.
hueyplong
@Caveatimperator: Repetitively, but I set the over/under for RFKjr’s vote at 1%. And we can guess with some degree of confidence that women and AAs are unlikely to compromise his core support.
Eolirin
@Soprano2: Usually the pin icon having a line through it means the item is already pinned, and clicking it will unpin the item.
catclub
Nutjobbery is a universal human trait.
yes.
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: Trump doesn’t seem to be seriously hurt. Why haven’t his doctors done a press conference? Why is “where are his neurological tests” media silent about this?
Oh and only black women ages 20-55 were polled. So while an interesting poll it is not a representative sample of the demographic. NYT is yanking your chain.
I wouldn’t take the statistical analysis of commenter who doesn’t understand averages seriously. YMMV.
Llelldorin
@Caveatimperator: It’s not necessarily being nuts; someone interrupted by a poll at a bad moment would also have to resist the perverse temptation to respond with “Oh, Kennedy, all the way. Go brain worm.”
Soprano2
@schrodingers_cat: I agree, but I also think it’s dangerous to discount poll results you don’t like as invalid for some reason. That’s why I said I hope someone in the campaign is looking at that poll for ways to target those voters. Trust me, I know – my mother told me she lied to pollsters all the time because she thought it was funny to fuck with them.
Elizabelle
@schrodingers_cat: thank you, dear sane one.
Soprano2
@schrodingers_cat: I think his injury wasn’t serious, and might have been caused by flying glass not a bullet. I agree that the press should be insisting on seeing the doctor’s report of his injuries, and it’s weird that they aren’t loudly insisting on seeing them.
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: I am not discounting it. I went and checked the loathsome NYT. Go back and read my comment. And check the crosstabs yourself.
Bupalos
@BR: excellent speech and well delivered. On both substance and style.
BR
I’m also proud of my support of Katie Porter despite all those here and elsewhere who complained that she was all talk, etc. Say what you will about Porter, but at least she isn’t out there publicly and privately shitting all over Biden.
Maxim
@Kay: I see that 14% of respondents were in favor of a national abortion ban. Doesn’t that tend to correlate pretty strongly with voting GOP? That would help explain those who said they’d vote for TFG.
Kay
@Soprano2:
Thanks.
I think the lesson to take from it is not that 20% of the respondents are “nutjobs” – it’s that there’s real disatisfaction out there and it has to be addressed. Twitter really isn’t real life.
I suspect that many of the black women are like most US voters – they’re not political junkies and they’re all over the place on this like everyone else. Will they return by the start of voting? I think many will, but there’s a drop off that doesn’t just show in this poll but shows in every poll.
prostratedragon
“Sandman,” Bassel and the Supernaturals
Eolirin
@Soprano2: Oh, also, to your edit, the jumplist syncs with the pinned list in the app, in both directions. So if you pin something in the jumplist it’ll be pinned in the app’s recently opened files list too, and vice versa. Or should be at least.
TBone
@prostratedragon: 💜
That is badass.
Kay
@Maxim:
It does. Great point. BUT it also correlates with belonging to a conservative religious tradition. I suspect to get such a big sample they had to call nationwide so got AA “very religious” voters ( mostly southerners). Another reason I thought the poll was worthwhile – I don’t think we hear from AA southern/rural women – they’re a big group of Democrats.
tam1MI
And the reason they have been invading every discussion here and purple-faced screaming is because they are losing the argument.
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: Here is the pertinent paragraph
Bupalos
@schrodingers_cat: it’s neither undemocratic nor stupid. But Biden has repeatedly slammed the door on it and if he’s not going to do it it can’t be done.
he had another escalation moment in that speech, both in referring to how there is no one in Washington that is a real friend and “giving his word” he will stay in. I think there’s growing momentum on the “nothing we can do” side that AOC forcefully staked out.
Maxim
@Kay: Yes, very true. And strong religious views do tend to outweigh other considerations.
JoeyJoeJoe
@Kay: in 2016, Hillary got 97% of the vote with African American women. It seems unlikely that 45 could get as much as 20% in the group in these polarized times.
WereBear
I watched bits of the RNC convention and woke up full of sunshine. Oh, it was a pit of depravity.
But it was pretending it was not. They were doing “calls for love and unity” from the stage, so the corporate media has soundbites (See! Trump is PIVOTING at last!) and Trump runs from Project 2025.
But it’s too late for that.
And the crowd was not happy. They wanted bloody shirts waved and they get this WOKE stuff? At their big party?
Perhaps we feel beleaguered and disappointed. But that crowd is pissed.
And Vance is not going over well. Which surprises no one.
SO I believe they are the ones with 99 problems. Since we aren’t running a convicted felon, adjudicated sex offender, and tyrant-wannabe as our Presidential candidate.
BR
@Kay:
Ouch, that poll looks bad. I have been dismissive of some of the polling but a large sample poll of Black women that shows this kind of weakness is not great. I don’t know who can help shore up this support or what is going on, but I hope someone does.
tam1MI
@Soprano2: Hugs to you and sending healing vibes your kitty’s way.
CaseyL
27% crazification factor is a useful rubric, and I imagine there are 27% nutjobs in every demographic.
The effort to intimidate witnesses against testifying in Georgia relied on a few people of color as legbreakers. I remember one of them – not her name, though I could look it up – who thought it was vastly entertaining to ruin Ruby Freeman and Shay Moss’ lives. Not a nutjob; just straight up Bad. Betcha she’ll be voting for TCFG.
“People who see other people as things” – is not limited to a single demographic.
Bupalos
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: Absolutely let’s fight, but let’s do so with open eyes. Trump didn’t have an incumbency advantage amidst the chaos of Covid, and we shouldn’t be counting on one for Biden either. Incumbents are getting arbitrarily slaughtered around the globe, it is probably not a good time to be an incumbent.
Jeffg166
There are 775,349 registered Democrats in Philadelphia. If they all voted Joe would win Pennsylvania. The best we can hope for is a 66% turnout by the Democrats.
Mike E
Figures. Now Kay is cherry picking polls done by a NYT publication. Haha, cherry picking, from my pantry, I made a funny!
Jackie
In other news:
TBone
@WereBear: 😘
Eyeroller
@Soprano2: He’s been claiming that the bullet “pierced his ear” and the media is just swallowing that whole. No curiosity at all. Sticking out from that ridiculous bandage, which I guess Ronny “Johnson” applied since he claims to have examined Trump and it’s a very unprofessional job, is a completely undamaged earlobe.
If had actually been hit by a rifle bullet he wouldn’t have an ear. I don’t know about “grazing” but I’m skeptical about that as well. I also see a lot of claims that Mike Lee was actually telling the truth and Trump was golfing the next day (just because nobody else could golf at Bedminster doesn’t mean he couldn’t). No bandage at all. I do believe he had some minor injuries caused by something. But there are a number of possibilities. Actually getting a direct hit is not among them.
Eolirin
@WereBear: All the more reason for the media to be hyperfocused and obsessive about our one problem.
Headdesk
TBone
@Jeffg166: that’s not the best I can hope for. Philly women will show up. The sky’s the limit in my world.
Kay
@BR:
I don’t think 20% will vote for Trump of 10% will vote for RFK Jr. but it shows an issue with these voters – there’s real ambivalence. I think it’s great that Biden went to the NAACP event – I would expect him to- but NAACP attendees would be the most politically engaged people. It’s base-shoring up, not outreach. It’s pretty late in the game to be base-shoring. That should be done already. You would need to reach less engaged voters, including less engaged AA voters.
TBone
@Jackie: which federal prosecutors are doing so? Aaarrgghhh
WereBear
@Soprano2: Yes, it started almost immediately.
But it was bumbled on the part of the shooter and the security. And behinds will be covered.
It looked fake because Trump was IN it, right. He exerts a dysfunction field. He didn’t act right, and neither did his security detail.
All of this creates conspiracy theories, but the deeper they dig into this, the more it’s clear it was a Republican who did it.
They don’t want to admit that they built this, but there’s not enough lipstick for this big a pig.
schrodingers_cat
@Mike E: And did she mention that they excluded women over 55 in that poll?
mardam
So, here’s the thing. The Constitution already says the President is liable to the law. What makes you think the SCOTUS…or at least this SCOTUS…would honor an amendment. FFS, they already don’t honor most of them.
Tony Jay
In all my years here I’ve only pied one troll, and that was the very blatant one from a couple of weeks ago who got banhammered anyway. I think the mockery had broken them already as they were getting very, very irate at being non-responded to.
Gawd knows I’ve been annoyed at some regular commentators here, some more than most and some chronically, but good golly, I’d never pie them. How would I know how monotonously boring and one note they’re being about their own foot-stamping obsessions?
Elizabelle
The Cut is from New York magazine. It’s not the FTF NY Times.
Eolirin
@TBone: I don’t see how they have any other choice. If that’s the only thing these people were being tried on the Supreme Court has made it very clear any conviction on that grounds will be overturned.
Eyeroller
@BR: I’m not a California voter so my opinion doesn’t matter, but I wish Barbara Lee were younger. She was just too old to run for the Senate. It’s different from Biden’s situation because he’s out in 4 years (max, I admit) regardless. But the Senate relies heavily on seniority and is a six-year term, and I could not have seen her serving more than two terms.
TBone
@Tony Jay: in my defense (not from any attack by you), at least my dick jokes were effective that day.
TBone
@Eolirin: it was my impression that it is up to the defendant to whine about their conviction, not the prosecutor!
Eolirin
@mardam: It’s still worth pushing for, if only because Republican office holders won’t support it, even as everyone else, including most of their base, will.
prostratedragon
@TBone: Group from Chicago. Most are immigrants — I think Bassel is from Syria — and the songs reflect that. They’re also involved in community and youth outreach.
Eolirin
@TBone: Prosecutors don’t like losing cases.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus: Who’s being awful? They’re being awful to us. I’m pieing with great regularity now.
WereBear
Why should I listen to polls this election cycle when they haven’t been right since… when?
Where is the red wave? The last two red waves?
Everyone is confused because everyone is being deliberately confused.
Kay
@Elizabelle:
I thought the piece itself was clearly sympathetic to Biden. It’s not a hit piece. All the language is carefully couched – it avoids pronouncements or conclusions.
Mike E
@schrodingers_cat: it all just stinks, yet another shit post. Cmorenc (not a troll!) Mom Sense (you’ve upset her!) bupalos, guachi, that prick cacti and a dozen more, all know how to play this tiresome game. Ignore the lot of them.
Tony Jay
@TBone:
I’m proud of my genital-based commentary from that period. It really annoyed the troll and I managed to avoid repetition, hesitation or deviation.
BR
@Kay:
I imagine Biden’s team is trying to shore up the base to quell doubts among wobbly Dems. I doubt it will work because the centrist donor types that seem to be most ambivalent are the ones who care about the almighty dollar more than anything and donors are speaking loud and clear.
What pisses me off is Schiff behaving as he is. There’s no universe in which him repeatedly bad mouthing Biden in public and private is helpful. I don’t get why him and other centrist Dems think that we need their prognostication about who is going to win when the election is months away and they have a role to play.
TBone
@prostratedragon: well I adore them, thanks for sharing!
Soprano2
@schrodingers_cat: Are we talking about the same poll? I was talking about the one Kay linked to from The Cut.
Soprano2
@Kay: Listening to “The Wilderness” was really eye-opening as far as polls and focus groups are concerned. One guy liked both TCFG and AOC – “because they speak their minds”. To us that makes absolutely no sense, but it did to him.
Omnes Omnibus
@zhena gogolia:
I intentionally did not name anyone on either side in my comment.
TBone
@Eolirin: but the first sentence of the blurb you posted gave me to believe that the federal prosecutors are the ones possessing the agency in this situation, like they are just reversing themselves without any resistance.
I can’t read at Wapoo so I don’t know anything except what you quoted.
Suzanne
@Soprano2:
Yes.
But I am wary of making any inference about how widespread something is based on my social media feed. The overwhelming sense that I have over the last few years is that the algorithms that push stuff at me are so highly targeted that something that I might see ten times is, for example, not seen by my husband at all. I think it distorts reality, elevates randomness and cranks and histrionics, and causes a lot of people to lose perspective of what is actually influential.
This is why I have pushed back pretty hard in the past when commenters have said something is really important because they saw it on social media. Like…. this is a world of eight billion people. There’s some of every kind of person, and some of them are terrible. There’s a lot of dumb ideas. But so what? I am interested once something extends its reach a bit.
zhena gogolia
@Tony Jay: I tried to be like that for a while, but they kept depressing me. Pie is better.
schrodingers_cat
@Elizabelle: Correction noted. They all inhabit the same universe dominated by the Vichy Times. I did go to the CUT. I have linked it in my commment.
Jackie
@WereBear: I did the same. And came away with a similar conclusion.
MAGA is NOT happy that Vance’s wife is Indian, with children who have Indian names. The HORROR!😱 HOW can Vance be anti-immigration when his own in-laws are immigrants?
Of course, so are TCFG’s in-laws, but their complexion is acceptable.
TBone
@WereBear: 👍
Soprano2
That’s an old, old saw. LOL
TBone
@Tony Jay: me too, proud for both of us! It sets them back on their heels and the crying then begins.
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: Yes we are. It is from the CUT. And the block quote is from the link to article about the the poll. It is not the NYT, my bad it is CUT which is a publication of NY Magazine.
Check #138 it has the link.
And now I have to go to a meeting.
WereBear
A person can’t be wobbly about Project 2025. It’s a 900 page Ayn Randian document.
And they are making changes so the page numbers people were sharing are no longer in context. Why aren’t they loud and proud?
That’s the problem they had with Trump’s ear injury on the eve of the Convention. Like everyone else, they want to be loud and proud about every single page in it. It’s their platform. There’s Dear Leader.
Now Dear Leader sounds like a squishy moderate, and chosen a VP with several monogrammed sets of baggage. This was the exact process that so infuriated right wingers they took over the party.
Are they trying to run from their own cult? Good luck with that.
Soprano2
@tam1MI: Thanks, I’m concerned that there’s something going on other than a heart problem. He has feline leukemia, so I suppose it could be as simple as that he is going to have a difficult time recovering from this.
Mike E
@schrodingers_cat: same cluster, like a section of the DSM
tam1MI
I have found great success when talking to people rattled by the propaganda surrounding Biden’s debate performance by saying, “Even if that is true, it doesn’t change the fact that Republicans are on record wanting to outlaw abortion”. I also throw in some stuff about Project 2025. That usually does the trick. Negative partisanship gets you a vote just as much as positive partisanship does.
Omnes Omnibus
@TBone: A large number of the plea agreements anticipated the potential Court decision and included language that voided the plea agreement and reinstated the original charges in that situation.
TBone
@WereBear: they’re changing the fucking page numbers? 😆
Mousebumples
Same. I’ll toggle regulars periodically to see if I want to unpie. Some people have bad days/weeks (or I do!) and what drove me nuts one day resolves.
Self care matters!
Soprano2
@Eyeroller: They keep saying TCFG was shot. He wasn’t shot, he was grazed by a bullet. Big difference. To me that, and the fact that they aren’t at all curious to see the doctor’s report about his injuries, is just more proof that they’re all in to elect him. They want to feed into his stories about the incident.
Another Scott
@Eolirin: Ok, there’s some logic to the math.
But I still think 18 is too long.
And I still think 9 Justices is too few.
Thinking out loud…
15 Justices, once they’re all seated, each new POTUS gets 2 picks, per term, nominated 2 years after they are (re)elected. Longest serving (oldest breaks tie) out first.
2 years pass, 2 out, 2 new in.
Repeat.
7.5 x 2 = 15 years for full turnover.
Senate gets 90 days to confirm. No confirmation, they have voided their consent powers, person gets seated anyway.
I could live with that.
Not that I expect it to happen quickly (letting Joe and/or Kamala have 6 new picks would be a very heavy lift).
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Bupalos
@Soprano2: I’ll give one. I agree the conversation over Biden as the candidate or not can’t be had here, it’s too charged and dominated by assumptions. As a Biden-should-go person here’s what I want him to do if he stays- what could get me to prioritize my efforts for potus over the Ohio senate race I now consider a better investment of my time and money:
Pivot to a team-dominant message. Stop saying “I” so much and shift 99% to “We”Assist in raising the profile of some of the very people he’s inadvertently slagging with this “only I can beat Trump” and “I have no friends in Washington” stuff.
which is very very hard right now psychologically because he and his circle feel under attack. But many of those of us who felt the bottom fall out with the debate performance and subsequent interviews probably aren’t going to be able to get past the ongoing risk we feel with an overly Biden-centered approach. He needs to talk openly and copiously about the team of stars he manages. The team that helped accomplish IRA and Infrastructure, the team your voting for.
we can win, but we’re minimizing that chance emphasizing Biden. He needs to face the ugly truth that he has a huge electoral weakness and if he isn’t going to do what most of the party seems to want, he must at least find an approach people can believe in.
Belafon
@cmorenc:
If someone sees his debate and it overrides 3.5 years of governing and all of the speeches he’s done since, there really isn’t a whole lot we can do to convince them. And us “political junkies” know that switching would be a disaster without Republicans helping, and they are going to do everything they can to screw it up.
All we can hope for from those you talk to is that they vote and we make sure they vote.
Maybe it’s just my lower class upbringing, but choosing between bad choices defines a significant chunk of my younger life. So when I hear people complaining about having to make those choices, all I can think it “As long as you make the better choice.”
But I also know this election isn’t about me. It’s about my minority friends, my Latino neighbors, my two gay sons, my trans friend, my friends’ trans daughters, women, and Ukraine, and Europe, and Taiwan, and our ability to survive on earth. So when I hear people who base their choices on one event rather than the history of the candidates and their parties, of course I’m annoyed. And I have a right to be annoyed.
It’s not all on Biden or us to make them understand what is happening; most of that’s on them. It’s not on us to make them feel better. It’s not anyone else’s job to make me feel better. So, yes, I’m glad they’re voting. and as long as they do, as long as every Democrat and independent does, we’re ok. As long as they understand the stakes of the election and will get to the polls, we’re ok.
Miss Bianca
@schrodingers_cat: Yeah, and don’t forget how into slagging Joe Biden over Gaza they were till suddenly they weren’t because they were too busy slagging Joe Biden over that first debate.
Notice how concern over Gaza has basically disappeared from the news?
It’s almost as if the point all along has been slagging Joe Biden.
Mike in NC
Supreme Court justices should serve no more than 8 or 10 years.
TBone
@Omnes Omnibus: thank you for clearing that up for me!
SFAW
@WereBear:
No, they’re just pretending, it’s a “yes, we’re saying we’re ‘moderate’ wink-wink-nudge-nudge to fool the squishes until we win the general” move, similar to every Rethug governor of a not-dyed-in-the-wool Red state.
Kay
@BR:
That’s the difference. I take all these Democrats saying this at their word. I have absolutely no reason to think Schiff isn’t making his sincere analysis of the race known. I think they’re saying it because they’re telegraphing it to the Biden campaign, because the Biden campaign isn’t listening to them. I think they have no choice. They have to get thru to the President and he’s refusing to look at their concerns (which, again, I think are justified). He’s in a tiny little bubble of family and five or so close aides. So they’re going public. I agree it’s bad. I don’t think they would be doing it if they didn’t feel they had to. There’s just no rational reason to believe all of these Democrats suddenly want to lose. The belief that they have all somehow fallen under the spell of anti Biden forces isn’t credible to me.
Trump is still an incredibly weak candidate. He didn’t even get a bump when someone tried to kill him. It’s just that Biden is weak too. Could Biden pull out a MOE race, an upset? Yeah. But you’d be relying on a Trump/Clinton scenario, where the Democrat had the Trump slot (upset win).
Soprano2
It was a huge security failure. This is one time when it’s constructive to have Republicans in charge of the House, because this is one time when they might actually want to do a real investigation, not a performative one. I hope, anyway.
Mike E
@WereBear: yep, and the call to RFK Jr shows the ratfucking is backfiring on Turd. He’s wobbly and will continue to reel like a landed bass, so much so that the MSM won’t be able to prop up his Downfall. Eyes on the prize!
Matt McIrvin
@Tony Jay: A pie is just a client-side mute, it’s not as if you’re doing anything at all to the other person. I regularly pie people who I think are basically good and on the right side if the stuff they post is hurting my brain and reading it is not doing me any good. Sometimes it’s temporary.
Elizabelle
@Kay: Thank you, Kay. I will check it out.
WereBear
@Soprano2: Poor guy! I have a post on hyper-nutrition.
Hyper-Nutrition can’t hurt and will help
Soprano2
@schrodingers_cat: It said they were going to do more polls. Perhaps there will be one of black women over 55. I still say the Biden campaign shouldn’t discount a poll like this one, because it’s a large poll of their base voters. At the very least it could give them some ideas about how to reach out to those people.
lowtechcyclist
@cmorenc:
Um, that’s not a meme, that’s FACT.
I agree this is a genuine problem and we shouldn’t just ignore it. But Biden is still fine and the debate was just one bad night. These two things can both be true at the same time.
Eolirin
@TBone: It wasn’t me that posted the blurb, but I remember the court ruling a bit.
It made it very difficult for prosecutors to apply the obstruction statute. If there aren’t other charges, and for a small number of people there weren’t, they no longer had a case against those individuals.
So they’re dropping those charges because they can’t easily win them with those limits in place. This is very unsurprising to me. It was a fairly obvious consequence of that ruling landing the way it did.
zhena gogolia
@Matt McIrvin: I agree, but in the past I didn’t pie because I wanted the information. I’ve never pied the Christian hater, for example. He doesn’t bother me in the slightest. But since the debate, I’ve come to deeply resent people who just keep harping on the same doom script without offering any constructive suggestions. So pie it is.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Kay: If Democrats dump Biden and his 14 million primary votes and his operation with him, I will not support any candidate to emerge from that process.
Nor will I support any Democrat down ballot who advocated for removing Biden or, in the event he’s forcibly removed, remained silent.
ETA: Democrats who want to dump Biden after the voting is over are advocating a palace coup.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: Social media is hugely problematic for exactly this reason. It reinforces, not just spreads, disinformation.
Belafon
BTW, how would you like to feel like the citizens of Dallas who thought they were voting for a Democratic mayor who changed parties soon after the election and spoke that the RNC last night?
Jackie
Pete’s sprung:
Can’t wait to hear about his horrible awful trials and tribulations… NOT!
WereBear
@SFAW: I do think they are worried about disgruntlement in a party which celebrates the ease of “getting very upset” with people they disagree with.
I’ve been listening to Republicans online who have just evaluated Project 2025 for themselves, and some of them are freaked out.
Good.
TBone
@Soprano2: they’ll do nothing but sound bites blaming Dems though. Right before the election.
E
@cmorenc: okay well who are you listening to then? I suspect that answer is no one. You are not presenting as a thoughtful person who accepts evidence outside your bias. I talk to dozens of normies every day of every ethnicity and social class and they are about 9/10 fully supportive with the 1/10 willing to vote for Biden but curious about other options. My conclusion is you are just loud and persistent and full of shit and you don’t really know anything except what your internet friends have told you. Bring something new or shut up, but I won’t know about it because I discovered the pie filter and I LOVE IT.
Mike E
@Miss Bianca: it’s because the debate worked to contrast the president’s issues with Mafia Don’s and the MSM couldn’t let their narrative be questioned like that. It’s July! Way to early to see such media frenzied crazification, they’re losing viewership/readership and the plutarchs are shitting themselves into springing the endgame too far ahead of schedule.
Soprano2
@BR: It’s political malpractice is what it is. Schiff had to know what he said at that fundraiser would make its way into the press. It’s OK to be realistic – “We’re down some now but we have the issues people care about on our side, with a little effort we can turn it around” would have been a much smarter thing to say than “With Biden at the head of the ticket we’re going to lose everything”. I have come to believe that the big money people are driving this, and it’s due to the fact that they got a wakeup call that if something happens to Biden during his second term Harris will become president and have the benefit of incumbency, and that messes up their plans for a huge “beauty contest” in 2028. They don’t want that, so they’re trying to kneecap Biden/Harris now to prevent it. At this point it can’t be about Biden’s mental fitness, because he’s amply proven in the last two weeks that mentally he’s fine.
Suzanne
@Soprano2:
I’ve been trying to listen to information about focus groups, too. It’s eye-opening. I have become increasingly wary — due to the social media effect I identified in the comment above — that I and others are not really understanding what other people are thinking. I became more interested in the specific concept of “cognitive empathy” in the context of my job a few years ago, and it’s an effort.
Hanging around here is comfortable (usually) because even when we disagree, we’re mostly motivated by the same things…..but humanity is a varied tapestry.
Elizabelle
@Kay: I believe Dobbs, the immunity decision and the fact that the Supreme Court is visibly radicalized, Trump as agent of chaos and ugliness, will all shore up resolve to vote for Democrats, up and down the ticket. And we have a good ground game.
Elon Musk pumping $45 million a month into Republican coffers. There is some mighty “free speech.” And other gazillionaires might be contributing even more. Anonymously.
Remind people of that. How’s that for democracy?
Mike E
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Mission Accomplished
Matt McIrvin
@CaseyL: OS updates, and in many cases app updates, often patch critical security vulnerabilities. The program could work the way you want but have a known hole that is exposing your data. I’d recommend at least looking at the release notes if you can.
TBone
@Eolirin: I thought the article said they are reversing convictions.
I’m not up to speed on this matter and thank you all for helping me get there.
Soprano2
@Suzanne: I’m seeing it from a couple of people who I’m friends with, and I’ve heard it from someone I work with. I don’t know how widespread it is, but it’s out there.
Kay
@BR:
Biden spent 100X what Trump spent in swing states prior to the debate, and it didn’t move the needle. He spent 400X what Trump spent in MI. If anyone needs big donors right now, it is Joe Biden. He’s burning money just to stay even (best case it it’s even). So he’ll need them. I wish money wasn’t important in politics but it is.
Cacti
@cmorenc: Welcome to the canary in the coal mine caucus. It’s not that they don’t understand what you’re saying. They’re just convinced that all is well in the kingdom, evidence to the contrary be damned.
Soprano2
@TBone: Yes, they’re trying to make it impossible for people to find things in there. That’s how you know they know it’s wildly unpopular and not good for them.
Suzanne
@E:
I will note that the election outcome probably hinges on that 1/10 person, so that’s a good place to pour in that persuasion effort.
zhena gogolia
Lots more pies and sweets in my comments!
E
@Omnes Omnibus: I hear you but trolling is a behavior anyone, even long-time pessimistic commenters can engage in. Pie isn’t forever.
Kay
@Suzanne:
God there’s a ton of it.
I don’t think he was shot. I think he lied and no one checked. It amazes me how bad our media is – OMFG ask him about this claim! I think he was hit by glass which was what law enfocement said at the beginning. I would bet 1000 dollars today that Donald Trump lied about getting shot.
TBone
I hate those people who knock on your door and say you need to get ‘saved’ or you’ll ‘burn.’
Stupid firemen.
And that’s my Dad joke for today!
Soprano2
@Miss Bianca: I think that’s because the protests disappeared because all the students went home. Since there’s no controversial protests to cover, the press got bored and stopped covering it.
BR
@Kay:
I wonder if we can take away something different from that, which is that throwing money at the problem like the old days isn’t going to work. Hard to do counterfactuals, so maybe Biden would be in worse shape if he hadn’t spent that money, but there’s still an outside chance that Biden could tap Obama to lead an Obama ’08 grassroots organizing push. (This is what I want to see, but I know the chance that it happens are slim.)
Sure Lurkalot
When you get a bad paper cut on a fingertip, it is particularly hard to bandage so I can plausibly extend that to the top of one’s ear but that gauze pad scotch taped to the side of the head without interfering with the ‘hairdo” is patently ridiculous. No conspiracy theorizing needed to think the guy suffered less than a paper cut.
Suzanne
@Kay: I don’t really care if he was shot or stuck by glass, personally. The intent was a kill, whether that was assassination or terrorism or just randomness. I can wait for a ballistics report or whatever.
BR
@Kay:
I wouldn’t even say lied — he is a bullshitter in the classic sense, so he is indifferent to truth or lies most of the time. He decided what sounded best to him and then said it and nobody bothered to ask for the details.
Kay
@Suzanne:
There may be literally no way to check Trump’s claim. His medical people can’t speak on w/out his permission and law enforcement are 90% Trumpers.
He wasn’t shot though. It’s bullshit.
WereBear
And I don’t understand it because I don’t see a problem with Biden. If he’s that bad off it would have been evident BEFORE we all voted.
Now who is dropping the ball?
And I don’t think that is so. I haven’t trusted polls since 2016, because corporate media play with them to toy with us.
They dropped the dog whistles, so no one has nearly as much plausible deniability anymore.
Actually, puh-leese, they have no plausibility, period. How can they decry violence without making gun fans unhappy?
How can they pump the evangelical church network who want women dying in the streets AND dodge the horrendous consequences of their corrupt court in making that possible?
How can they lure non-white voters to white supremacy? That one is tricky if you don’t pay them.
Corporate media is the same as hearing it from FOX, less the pink gun lesbian gangs. They have SOME principles, after all.
Cacti
@Kay: Biden’s phone call with Congressional Dems was also a reported train wreck, with Biden saying the state of his campaign was everyone else’s fault.
Kay
@BR:
Well not to be a PIA, but I haven’t heard much from Obama. Which is concerning. He’s a great campaigner and he works his ass off. The 2012 Obama campaign was an absolute GRIND – they were doing 4 big, public events a day. I would think he would jump in now.
Eyeroller
I’m not really obsessed with Trump’s injury–I’m more interested in the distinct lack of interest by the media–but I just looked at a picture of that stupid bandage and realized the hair around his ear isn’t even shaved. Of course we know what a narcissist is and how obsessed he is with his hair, so I suppose he’d have overruled doctors. But they’d need to shave around the area for even minor surgery.
A few media types are asking, but the Trump campaign is stonewalling, and nobody is screaming questions at his spokespeople.
Bupalos
With so many people doing the self-curation thing, how does the pie filter work? If I reply to someone who has me blacklisted, does that turn a comment to pie for all? I wouldn’t think so but I don’t do the filtering thing, yet I’ve seen two pastry pictures and don’t get how that would happen.
BR
@Kay:
Though this reminds me exactly of something you’ve been saying for years. The simple factual basis of our society has come unraveled in the last 5-10 years, things like statements and records made by public officials like law enforcement and investigators and medical examiners and so on. The fact that we can’t rely upon them to do their jobs and put their personal political views aside is a major problem.
Matt McIrvin
@zhena gogolia: I pied that guy ages ago because he’s just expressing his trauma from religious abuse by saying basically totalitarian things. I understand where he’s coming from but I don’t need to hear it any more.
(My own apocalyptic feelings come, I think, out of extensive experience of adolescent bullying, against a background of the rise of Reaganism, that gave me a bone-deep intuition that The People basically hate me and are coming sooner or later to kick my ass. And I think it makes me bad at politics because my bedrock intuition is that the masses are bad people and that ass kicking is coming. A man has to recognize his limitations.)
lowtechcyclist
@cmorenc:
You were asked what YOU said to THOSE SPECIFIC PEOPLE you were talking with. So you didn’t say anything to them because too many others like them are out there.
We can each only do so much, but if Mr. Concerned here isn’t even doing that even though he sees the problem and we supposedly don’t, then fuck him.
Eolirin
@WereBear: That tension is the only thing that’s really giving us a shot here. It’s what broke Arizona for us. It’s what’s killing the Michigan GOP party. You can’t keep the moderates and the extremists on the same side once the extremists start demanding maximalist positions and throwing a fit when they don’t get them.
One side has to win, and the other side won’t back whichever one that ends up being.
Kay
@Bupalos:
I have no idea. Not a pie person.
IMO, there is nothing more boring than Balloon Juice discussions about Balloon Juice :)
cain
@Kay:
It’s perception management just like that debate was bad, having these events will help shore drive the perception that the debate was an anomaly.
I saw some poll that showed that the lead is narrowing in Florida and North Carolina on reddit. I’ll try to stay consistent and not worry about polls and keep focusing on getting the vote out. I think ultimately, the people who are going to vote to Joe is going to go unchanged because their values are not changing.
I think Joe needs to start really talking about how he’s going to help the younger generation. I read enough of the reddits around and see that Gen Zs, Gen Alpha, and Millennials are truly struggling in this economy.
All Trump has to offer is white grievance and his cultist only care about that. But I expect younger generations to be much more pragmatic.
Jackie
BAAHAHAHAAAA! Wait till daddy hears about this! To the doghouse you go, Eric! 😂
BR
@Kay:
My hope is that because Obama doesn’t like to create public drama whatever he’s saying he’s making sure it doesn’t get to the press. I hope he’s figuring out a way to unify the party so that when he does hit the campaign trail — and I am confident that he will — that he can do it with the party rowing in the same direction. (Anyone who claims to speak for him right now probably doesn’t know what they’re talking about.)
The one case that I think even Obama couldn’t quite pull it off was in 2016 — he never quite got the right message to support Clinton and so his speeches for her didn’t really land. I would hope that he can bring some fire for Biden/Harris unless there is really some irreparable rift there (which I would hope there isn’t).
Kathleen
FWIW – From Simon Rosenberg (Hopium) IMHO this is a balanced, data driven discussion of “where we are”, including some interesting polling data on Kamala Harris, which according to Simon Rosenberg has not been previously available. Don’t necessarily agree with all of it but it is a good overview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkdZ5yeWEiA&ab_channel=SimonRosenberg
prostratedragon
The P25ers want to dismantle NOAA.
“Birdland,” Weather Report.
Soprano2
@zhena gogolia: Come sit by me. I’ll listen to constructive arguments, but I don’t need the doom doom doom stuff in my life. I have enough stresses already.
Soprano2
@Belafon: I’d be plenty pissed for sure.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
It’s terrible how much damage bullying does. We had a magistrate, in his 70’s, kind of a bootstrappy tough guy (Right winger, but all our judges are) and very successful lawyer prior to taking the bench.
He took testimony in a juvenile proceeding where the juvenile described having his nose broken on the school bus by his tormenters. Magistrate had to leave the bench. He was crying. He later told me in chambers that he grew up Mennonite and never got real medical care. He was born with a short leg and had to wear a built up show and was bullied every day for 12 years in school. The wound is so deep.
Fair Economist
@cmorenc: People who see Biden in action like him. His polls are going up. People who only hear endless smears from the media don’t like him. What we need to do to win (cause Biden is not stepping down, that ship has sailed) is get people to see Biden and not just listen to media distortions.
Soprano2
@WereBear: “I never thought the leopard would eat my face”. Evidently they haven’t been listening to what Republicans have been saying for the past 4 years, have they?
Eyeroller
@Jackie: I repeat, if he got a direct hit he wouldn’t need stitches because he wouldn’t have an ear. Why are people buying this crap? (Well, he’d need stitches to close the hole.)
Soprano2
If it were a Democrat you can bet they’d be howling about why they hadn’t seen the doctor’s report on his injury yet. With TCFG, it’s crickets. They want the story he’s telling out there, it’s good for their business.
kindness
Black voters in particular, those polls they had saying 20% of black voters were going to vote for Trump. Are they scouring those same Ohio diners where they find ‘typical’ Americans to poll? Maybe that’s it. Maybe those (white) middle Americans are all worked up at their diner because there are black people eating there too.
zhena gogolia
@Bupalos: It only shows as pie to the person who pied you.
Archon
@Kay: Are you curious why they didn’t include black woman over 55 in their poll?
zhena gogolia
@Matt McIrvin: I get it!
Paul in KY
@cmorenc: Was probably the crappiest debate performance by someone on ‘our’ side since Liebersuck groveled in front of Darth Snarly back in 2000.
Mike E
@BR: Obama is all things to some people, the trigger that set off a million psychoses. He is a good man, super smart and your analysis of him keeping out of this frenzy is sound.
Eyeroller
I found the tweet from Jonathan Chait I mentioned in a much earlier (probably dead) thread:
“Lester Holt very smoothly interprets the gutteral sounds as if they were coherent, kind of like Han Solo responding to Chewbacca.”
There you have it, our Liberal Media. Chait recently wrote yet another “Biden Must Go” thinkpiece. And here he’s straight up making fun of Biden’s stutter.
Cacti
YouGov’s latest batch has him trailing outside the margin of error in 3 swing states, and within the margin of error for two others.
VFX Lurker
In my case, the pie filter stops ME from wasting energy on once-valued regulars. Nothing I write will improve their day. The pie filter stops me from wasting my time and theirs.
It took me an hour to write ten Postcards to Voters last night. For me, that’s time better spent than arguing on here.
Bupalos
@zhena gogolia: I don’t get how I saw pie without having pied anyone. Maybe someone literally posted the pictures themselves or something.
Soprano2
Boy that’s a tell, because if this had happened to Biden they’d be screaming at them every single day.
tam1MI
And that really is the bottom line. Biden said, “No” to the Coup D’Etat Caucus. We said “No” to them.
“No” means “No”.
zhena gogolia
@Eyeroller: Wow, that’s Trump-level.
zhena gogolia
@Bupalos: Oh, that is weird. Are you sure you didn’t pie anyone? Or maybe it was WaterGirl? Sometimes she posts a pie picture to remind people to do it rather than responding.
Suzanne
@Soprano2: FWIW, I have only ever pied one person. If I don’t feel like reading or responding, I just don’t. I don’t feel the need to curate to manage my mood, but I get that others do.
Touching grass is important.
columbusqueen
For all the doomers here, remember three magic words: DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.
We’ve been here before. It ain’t over til it’s over, & November 5th is still in the distance. We can’t give up.
Elizabelle
@Kay: and therein lies a huge issue regarding candidate quality. Democrats have an older nominee apparent who can cogently run a NATO meeting, and understands international politics rather well, even if you might disagree with some of his policies (or lack thereof).
Republicans have an older nominee apparent whom we can not trust to honestly answer the question: were you shot? That would seem to be a binary question. Injured by flying glass does not equal being shot, even if the glass itself was hit by a bullet.
Harrison Wesley
I just wasted a few minutes looking at The Guardian, whose main story is “almost 2/3rds of Democratic voters want Biden to drop out.” That’s not credible. If it is true, America might as well sink into the ocean right now. Whoever conducted that poll must have hand-picked the respondents.
Bupalos
@VFX Lurker: How do those postcards work? I’d like to do a campaign aimed at Eastern European folk dance groups because I’m in that community and I’ve had success turning otherwise conservatives by explaining how stark the difference is between the parties here. Which many don’t understand, they still assume R’s are anti-Soviet. Do you actually write on issues like that, and how are these targeted?
Paul in KY
@Soprano2: President Biden is going to have to wipe the floor with him in that 2nd debate. Thank God we have a 2nd debate!
Eyeroller
@Harrison Wesley: It must be the same data that a certain doomer maybe-troll has been repeatedly citing. It’s more cherry-picking.
prostratedragon
It’s been noted on the margins, but needed to be said plain: Sherrilyn Ifill:
Eolirin
@zhena gogolia: It also shows any reponses other people make to the person you’ve pied as pie too.
Paul in KY
@Omnes Omnibus: Good point. cmorenc is a fine Democrat. Just saying stuff he’s seen since the debate. Same stuff we’ve seen/heard. My 98 year old mother asked today why Pres. Biden won’t step down since he’s got ‘problems’. I bucked her up. She’s quite worried, though. She did not watch debate, thank God.
Soprano2
@Bupalos: It makes the person who pied you see the reply as pie also. It doesn’t affect what other commenters see.
BR
@Harrison Wesley:
I don’t think we have to doubt the poll to doubt its meaning. Sure, if you told me that Michelle Obama and Superman were going to be the Dem ticket I would say ok, Biden should drop out. That would be counted in the 2/3 of respondents. That doesn’t mean that I would vote against Biden. Just like when people are asked what they think about some niche issue but not asked how that affects their vote.
Jackie
@Eyeroller: I’m not buying this crap, but TCFG has been milking it to the moon and back. Several GQP attendees were seen wearing ear bandages in solidarity last night at the convention.
Eric let the cat out of bag, that daddy’s yuuuge bandage is coverup for a scratch – not the mangled ear TCFG wants us to believe he has.
Eolirin
@Bupalos: I don’t think anything is able to target anything that finegrained except maybe social media related advertisements.
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: But presenting it as a poll representing all black women is sophistry. Half lies that can’t be debunked easily, since you have to go into the weeds of the data.
And we know how mathematically proficient the ordinary citizen is.
Soprano2
@Eolirin: You should see the ads the Republicans running for statewide office here are running. There was zero turning down of the violence, they’re using flamethrowers to burn stuff and firearms to shoot stuff pretty liberally. It’s what the base wants, and they won’t be satisfied with less. They’re all running on controlling the border and deporting “illegals”, when the job they’re running for has nothing to do with that!
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Just had an anxiety-inducing discussion with a doctor’s office, so I can’t deal with the political back-and-forth for a while, except for one thought:
The bastards want us at each other’s throats or killing ourselves with anxiety, in the hopes that’ll give them their opening to destroy the world we’ve spent so long trying to build.
Soprano2
@prostratedragon: I think that’s the kind of thing that non-political normies would hear and go “huh what?”. It sound ludicrous that we would disband agencies like that.
Eolirin
@schrodingers_cat: Even people in the field often struggle with statical reasoning. Humans are flat out bad at it.
So yeah, the average person on the street should be expected to get it wrong completely and forever.
Princess
@Kay: He may not have been shot (I agree) but he was certainly shot at, so meh. I agree that the press is interestingly uncurious about the details. If it were Biden or Hillary, there would be hourly news reports wondering what they were hiding.
Cacti
@columbusqueen: And a six word rejoinder for you:
Harry Truman wasn’t 81 years old.
Eolirin
@Soprano2: I’m willing to bet most normies in the streets would first ask what the heck is NOAA.
Government is something distant and abstract to most people. There’s very little understanding of how it intersects with their lives, and consequently what the stakes are if it becomes broken.
Soprano2
@Kay: To this day I have a hard time believing people like me, and that’s because of the bullying I got when I was in junior high school. It’s something that’s in there deep down, and it’s really hard to root it out. Almost impossible, I think. One of my grandnieces is being bullied by a racist in her class, he’s calling her “chocolate milk” as an insult and I guess he’s saying other worse stuff. Her mother is demanding that the school allow her daughter to transfer to another class away from the bully. I told her to tell Emma to say “People like chocolate milk better than white because it’s sweeter” to her bully. LOL Anyone who thinks bullying doesn’t leave a deep scar was never bullied.
BR
@Eolirin:
“Republicans want you to pay for daily weather forecasts.”
“They’re going to give all the weather satellite information in a no-bid deal to one of their buddies and then he can profit by ripping off the American people for access to our own weather data.”
UncleEbeneezer
@E: Exactly!
At this point, people who continue to give legitimacy to this bullshit attempt to undermine our President and our unity (for whatever reasons, well-intended or not), deserve what they get. And that goes just as much for long-time/well-respected commenters as it does for drive-by/new-name visitors. Shutting-the-F-up is always a free and easy option.
tam1MI
@Cacti: We said “No”, Cacti.
“No” means “No”.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, I’m shocked, shocked.
Nitter, (Twitter version):
JD lives in Del Ray in Alexandria, VA. Del Ray is a liberal, trendy, woke, walkable, very nice, neighborhood.
Cheers,
Scott.
Eolirin
@BR: That’s a really good way of making it concrete to people!
But it’s step from getting rid of NOAA to that, and someone will need to hold their hands to get there.
Bupalos
@MomSense: Remember these people are hurting too. To me the outsized certainty and need to see alternate opinions as “insane” or “treachery” or whatnot is another kind of freakout. We’re all freaking out. We should be, this is a kind of evil clown fire and it doesn’t make sense that we are where we are. We probably cannot productively discuss the “which candidate” here, and that’s ok. None of us can inflect this issue…another thing which probably bizarrely heightens the emotions.
WereBear
81 is not what it is today. It’s more like 72, and that’s reasonable.
We can’t do the same with Trump, because we must presume good health, and we know Trump takes not the slightest care of himself, and has an alleged drug problem.
So Trump is, scientifically, older.
Flowing Data Reference
MisterForkbeard
@Omnes Omnibus: Yep. Cmorenc isn’t wrong about most of this. I was reading reddit the other day and I got sent to the ezraklein subreddit, which was not a fun time. But that subreddit is full of people who are usually allies, and many are convinced from the one debate performance that Biden is gone. It doesn’t help that they doomlooped and self-reinforced repeatedly, but they’re not willing to consider his many public appearances since.
They ARE willing to consider that one of the Obama Bros said that Biden had once had a not-so-bad problem as proof that he was off his rocker, though. They bought into it and it’ll be really hard to get them out.
TBone
@prostratedragon: you’re jamming today! Thank you, I haven’t been listening to my morning music breaks lately and I needed that 💜
Fuck the Heritage Foundation and the horse it wants us to ride back to the Dark Ages. Fuck the patriarchy!
Soprano2
@Eyeroller: That is so gross. I listened to that interview, Biden was perfectly coherent. What the hell is wrong with him?
Eunicecycle
@Harrison Wesley: but it also said almost 60% thought Trump should drop out.
Paul in KY
@Tony Jay: Always the professional and comprehensive job I expect from you, Tony!
schrodingers_cat
@Kathleen: Nice to see you here! Welcome back.
Chris Johnson
@The Red Pen: Hey, I’ve been meaning to ask. That’s a familiar nym. I may have gone to school with you: I was the freshman kid you befriended.
I had the nym ‘The Poet’. Ring a bell?
If you would like to confirm that you are that Red Pen, tell me either what was the other name of your roommate Kane, or what was the nym HE wrote under? No possible troll would know those things, and as I said I recognized the nym and it may have nothing to do with ‘being a troll’. We might have gone to school together :)
Geminid
@Soprano2: If these are primary races the Republicans have to keep blasting away. A race to the bottom dynamic.
Soprano2
@Bupalos: Every now and then Watergirl posts a picture of pie. The clue is whether the gray box says “reply” or “toggle”. If it says “toggle” you’re seeing pie because you either pied the poster or they’re replying to someone you pied.
UncleEbeneezer
@Soprano2: Also, the most common (and dangerous) form that trolling takes is in the appearance of “constructive debate.” The endless back and forth about Hillary’s Emails, Goldman Sachs, health concerns, were always framed as such. And Kamala Is A Cop. And snake emojis for Warren. This is how anti-Dem, psyop campaigns always operate. Under the thin veil of constructive debate.
Kay
@Soprano2:
I was on a public school council when anti bullying started and we phrased it as “everyone has a right to demand decent behavior at school”. They don’t have to like the kids they’re bullying, but they have to be polite and use self control – like any workplace would demand. An orderly school environment for learning with (of course!) no violence. Knowing this is a conservative district I really enjoyed using this argument – I know Right wing arguments much better than they know mine.
I was essentially telling them their kids were poorly raised and out of control :)
It was kind of a reveltation “why WERE schools putting up with this bullshit, anyway?”
I think it’s a real advance in peoples thinking.
TBone
@tam1MI: 🎯
Bupalos
@Eolirin: I have names and addresses. But haven’t really thought through the potential repercussions of using them.
Soprano2
@Elizabelle: The biggest problem is that the press seems to believe the idea that our nominee is old is a bigger issue than the idea that their nominee refuses to answer a simple question “yes” or “no”.
TBone
@prostratedragon: 📣❤️
Another Scott
(repost from downstairs) – re the polls… MarylandMatters.org (from 7/15):
(Emphasis added.)
I’m sure each of those polls had a “3% margin of error”, also too.
[ groucho-roll-eyes.gif ]
Doing good polls is really hard, especially these days. Doing bad polls, and getting “engagement” on them is shockingly easy.
Don’t get hung up on the polls. Polls don’t vote. Despair is what they want. Despair doesn’t vote.
Do the work we need to do to get every gettable vote.
Eyes on the prizes.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cacti
@tam1MI: Is your last name, Wynette? 🤣🤣
Paul in KY
@Soprano2: If the actual bullet actually came in contact with your skin, then you can say you were shot.
That even applies to a crapshit, scumbag, loser, traitor like TFG.
Mike E
@Another Scott: nitter response: “MAGA on the streets, lib in the sheets”, heh.
The Prospect article on that trashy book, also too.
Eolirin
@Bupalos: Most of the postcard organizing sites will give you a list of addresses and names, along with suggested sample messages, and they’re usually pretty generic. A lot of it is along the lines of this election is important (because x, y, z), make sure you vote.
The Biden campaign has also been pushing relational organizing, with trainings for how people can better engage with and turn out their communities. I don’t have links or time to find them right now though.
Soprano2
@Eolirin: I would call it “the weather service, where the news stations get their information”. Or tell people that’s where the weather information in their weather app probably comes from. I would also tell them that R’s want all these places to have to pay for the information, which means they’ll probably have to pay for it too.
Kathleen
@schrodingers_cat: Thank you! It will be quite sporadic but I had to share that video. It’s long but worth the viewing and I feel much better than I have in a long time.
Eolirin
@Soprano2: Refuses to answer a simple question as yes or no, at length, for many minutes.
Kay
@MisterForkbeard:
We don’t think the public appearances since are much better than the debate was. We think you’re grading on a curve. Just at this NAACP event Biden lost his train of thought 3 or more times – Im baffled at how that happened because I assume (like all pols) he’s reading from a prompter. He’s different than the 2020 Biden. I’m not comparing him to the 2012 Biden (who was sharp as a tack) – I’m comparing to 2020. I have no idea whether it’s just losing a step with age or something else, but we have a problem.
Kathleen
@Another Scott: He also has a home in a beautiful old neighborhood in Cincinnati which is about 5 minutes from downtown. It’s on one of my favorite running routes. A friend of mine is his neighbor!
Elizabelle
@MisterForkbeard: So they’re all sucking each others’ dicks. Great.
And they may prefer to suck harder than to admit they mighta, coulda gotten it wrong here.
Soprano2
@Geminid: They are, they’re all calling each other huge liberals and saying their opponent is just like Biden. It’s surreal, to hear someone say Jay Ashcroft is just like Joe Biden. Evidently us selling all our farmland to China is a huge concern on the right, too, because all their ads talk about it.
Eolirin
@Soprano2: Effective framing but someone needs to be doing the explaining and it’s not gonna be the media.
tam1MI
@Cacti: What about “No” do you not understand?
Kathleen
@Eyeroller:That was so vicious, vile and disgusting. I loathe these ghouls.
Cacti
@Kay: This. At the NATO presser, he called Harris “Vice President Trump” and Zelensky “President Putin”. Then the BJ faithful acted like he had just knocked it out of the park. 🤦♂️ 🤦♂️ 🤦♂️
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Imagine living 80 plus years, performing well for the most recent 4 years as President, then having your entire legacy come down to a clumsy 20 minutes in a way that may end civilization as we know it.
I am appalled. At the right wing media, obviously, and the big donors have always sucked. But there are far too many people who should know better that are making asses of themselves.
Paul in KY
@Kay: That wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
Soprano2
@Kay: Isn’t it sad that you have to explain to people why allowing bullying is bad?
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Cacti: Is ask you to consider what it would be like to only be judged by your mistakes; but in your case, that may actually reflect a representative sample of your life.
schrodingers_cat
@Kathleen: As an Ohioan (did I get that right) what is your opinion about Vance?
tam1MI
@Kay: Fine, but this is the reality. He is not going to step aside and you are failing at convincing people here and elsewhere to pressure him to do so. With that reality in mind, what do you recommend as next steps?
Cacti
@tam1MI: Kind of pathetic to equate a political discussion in a comment section on a political blog to sexual violence because people are merely saying something you don’t want to hear.
No? 🤣
Archon
@Cacti: So this is the new anti-Biden argument? He’s really just as bad as he was in the debate and if you don’t agree you are lying to yourself?
Yeah at this point I think I’m done responding to you so no need to retort.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Biden: Republicans want to end democracy.
Elite Democrats and donors: We should end it first and not give him the chance.
MagdaInBlack
@tam1MI: Was about to ask the same: What is the solution being offered ?
Cacti
@tam1MI: Kay says “No”, you are wrong. “No” means no.
I insist you stop your rhetorical violence against Kay at once.
tam1MI
@Cacti: I have said “No” three times now.
“No” means “No”.
WereBear
Biden is speaking the truth, the loudest.
I’ll always vote for that.
Eyeroller
@MisterForkbeard: I read a few subs on Reddit and I hardly need to remind you that Reddit is in no way representative of the public (it skews young, male, and white) and people on an r/ezraklein sub are going to be even more unrepresentative since they fucking read Ezra Klein.
tam1MI
He’s also standing up to bullies both within and without his party. I’m good with voting for that as well.
Fair Economist
@Cacti: The YouGov poll has Harris 3 points behind Biden.
Replacing Biden is doom.
Cacti
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Imagine living 80+ years, knowing that no President has ever been this age, and also knowing that you’re at an age where your physical and mental health can deteriorate rapidly and without warning.
Then deciding that despite all of this, the public should be willing to roll the dice on giving you another 4 year term. They do so, then you look frail and confused at your first debate. Then you tell them to ignore what their eyes saw and their ears heard.
But they’re not, and you insist that this is their fault, not yours.
And here we are.
Fair Economist
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
LOL. That’s a good one!
Bupalos
@Soprano2: Of course it is, I just don’t think he should be pulling it out when it clearly refers to dems.
some slack cut because what the team is trying to do there really is flatter the selected audience via contrast. “You’ve had my back” is more effective in reference to the shadowy dem operatives (like Pelosi?) that don’t.
Another Scott
@Eyeroller: Something something the light’s better over here!
Cheers,
Scott.
Kay
@Cacti:
lol
Did you see Japan may recognize a Palestinian state? I was thrilled. Activists effort to work around the fact that the United States and Israel block everything is fascinating. They’re doing it because no one told them they couldn’t, and, as it turns out, they can! There can be another policy towards Israel different than the United States policy on Israel. Amazing.
Suzanne
@UncleEbeneezer:
Some of us come here for actual constructive debate and different perspectives. No scare quotes. This community has been here a long time. We can assume good faith.
Kay
@Bupalos:
The whole “elites are attacking Biden” theme makes me uncomfortable when they’re talking about Dem House reps and Senators. LITTLE TOO Trumpian for me!
But opinions differ.
I don’t think making the President of the United States the victim of the Democratic Party is going to work. I think doing it at all indicates desperation.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Cacti: So I’m supposed to center what I saw one particular night over everything I’ve seen before and since.
Im not here to comfort people’s shallow impressions. I’m judging Biden by his work product, which has been the best of any President in my lifetime. By a wide margin.
tam1MI
@Kay: It’s too bad that the crowd that was supposed to be so passionate about Gaza won’t turn out to vote for the politicians on the ballot that are actually running to change US policy on Gaza. Just imagine how much better your cause would do here if you got even a few more of them in Congress!
Eolirin
@Eyeroller: There are 19k people subbed to that subreddit . The upvotes on some of that content is in the almost but not quite 800 person range.
Given that they’re not made up of people solely from the swing states, it’s not only not representative, it’s also not enough people to know if it’s a meaningful trend anywhere but there.
A substantially larger number of people were incensed that Nintendo was cutting pokemon out of the switch games, and those went on to break sales records. Online discourse isn’t a useful measure of anything.
But despite all that, it’d still be better if that wasn’t happening. It’d have been better if Biden had had a good debate night. It’d be better if we had a less shitty news media. And it’d be better if we had a less shitty electorate.
Biden is who we have, and he’s got a lot of strengths and Trump has a lot of weaknesses, and if that’s not enough, like it wasn’t with Hillary, we get what we get. It’s the voters’ fault at that point. If we’re going to lose to slander we can always lose to slander, and candidate “quality” won’t help us as much as people wanting to upend the campaign might wish it would.
Or to put it another way, you can’t solve an electorate and media problem by trying to solve a perceived candidate problem.
There’s always going to be something. You can never get out of the defensive crouch.
tam1MI
It worked for Bill Clinton.
Kay
@Bupalos:
And especially for THIS site, Balloon Juice, a site that came up with a special demeaning name for Bernie Sanders.
Biden sounds like Sanders with this ‘the elites in the party’ bullshit. It was bad then and it’s bad now. He’s not a fucking victim.
MisterForkbeard
@Kay: I think that’s a fair take. I think it’s wrong – I’ve been watching a lot of his appearances because I was worried about it. I see someone who’s pretty old but is present just as much as my older relatives, and who has a good command of details and plans when he needs it but does sometimes pause for a bit.
This is especially the case when I compare him to Trump, who is forceful but manifestly nuts and routinely says literally insane things – and can’t keep a detail or policy straight to save his life. But the comparison isn’t always useful or persuasive.
So basically – he’s old and slowing down but still there and capable. I’m worried about optics and persuasiveness but not actual competence.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Kay: Either the votes matter or they don’t
D voters had a chance to remove Biden and didn’t, emphatically.
Juju.
@cmorenc: I know I’m late to this, but life comes first. Biden may have left a bad impression, but I think that Trump’s term and some of the results of his term are being seen and felt should also leave a very bad impression, more so than a bad debate. When I have talked to a few people who are now non enthusiastic Biden voters I point out a number of things. One is that Biden is a genuinely caring empathetic human being who only cares to use his office to help the citizens of this country and save the planet. Other things to consider is what will happen if Trump becomes president again. As a woman, and an aunt to almost the whole spectrum of LGBTQ, if Trump becomes president again they and I will lose the rights we have now, and become targets of state and probably Federal Government. This scares me. You could point out that this is what Project 2025, their big government policy plan, is designed to take more rights away from citizens. 2025 wants to make women second class citizens by making abortion illegal in this country. So get used to women dying in hospital parking lots of pregnancy related issues that did not kill them before Dobbs. They want to make contraception illegal, and note that contraceptives and birth control are different things. It will be more difficult for women to leave bad marriages since they want to get rid of no fault divorce. I read that they want to go back to 1960, a time where women couldn’t get credit, buy houses and didn’t have equal pay or access to any job, even in theory, and was before the Civil Rights Act and many of the Supreme Court decisions we depend on now. Project 2025 wants to get rid of birthright citizenship so it will be possible to deport just about anyone they want to, but will be used to target citizens of color first. There are so many things in that plan that should scare the bejeebus out of anyone who cares, even a little bit. I will vote for Joe in a coma before I’d vote for Trump. Another thing to consider is the status of the H5N1 virus, which has the potential to turn into another pandemic. Do the really want Trump to be the president during another pandemic? I know I don’t. I could probably think of more, but I have other stuff going on.
Kay
@tam1MI:
At this point you really have to stretch to believe the Biden Administration is “trying to change” US policy on Gaza. I mean, they’ve done a lot of gaslighting insisting a ceasefire is coming, but the Right in Israel just use that as permission to kill a thousand more Palestinian civilians.
I died a little inside when Biden boasted in an interview that he has “done more for Palestinians” than anyone, and then pointed to his administrations complete failure getting aid in. Is he nuts? He sees himself as somehow the savior of Palestianians? Is he aware we’ve helped kill 65,000 of them with our blank check “more and bigger bombs!” policy and no end in sight? Does he expect them to thank him? For what? For not actually completely annilating them? Yet?
Eolirin
@Cacti: We have vice presidents for a reason. If Biden suddenly becomes incapacitated due to a rapid deterioration of his health, Harris takes over.
And Harris is the only real alternative to Biden, logistically.
But you already get to vote for her to become President if Biden can’t manage, because she’s on the ticket. So if you’re down for Harris, you shouldn’t really care about whether Biden can get through 4 more years or not.
Unless the real complaint here is that we don’t want a black woman to be president, this position is extra incoherent. And if that’s the concern, running her for President isn’t going to work either!
UncleEbeneezer
@Suzanne: I’ve been here since Cole turned Liberal. And I have seen a LOT of trolling-disguised/defended-as-constructive-debate. I’m glad people are finally starting to point it out.
What exactly is this dumb debate “constructing” at this point, besides a way to signal-boost efforts to depress enthusiasm and hurt voter turnout? There’s nothing constructive about it. It’s pretty obviously destructive, by design.
Cacti
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: I heard similar dismissals when I said that DiFi was too old to be seeking another term as Senator, then watched as dementia took hold two years in, and she needed Patty Murray to sit beside her and tell her when to say “aye” and “nay”. And then she died before finishing her term.
Biden is visibly past his mental prime compared to 2020 and the whole world saw it on live television.
You think he can overcome that. I don’t.
MisterForkbeard
@Kay: Honestly, I think that’s one of the only paths forward. For many (internal, political) reasons it’s next to impossible for the US to recognize Palestine right now, or even to provide overt roadblocks to Israel’s behavior. I mean, looks at the collective freakout when Biden paused an arms shipments for a week because he wanted Israel to tell him how their next invasion wasn’t going to murder a ton of civilians first.
Getting other countries to push back on it and actually get the ball moving is probably the only path forward. There just isn’t the support (yet) in the US, particularly in the media. So let’s get it somewhere else and give the US an international consensus to ‘give into’.
Suzanne
@Eolirin: Your comment is really thought-provoking. This is a thing I have been thinking about:
One of the interesting themes I have noted here in the last few weeks are a lot of assertions about “Biden being the best president of my lifetime, better than Obama”, and kind of on a related note, an assertion that communications, making the case for oneself, etc….. that those things are ancillary to the job. That campaigning is separate from the work of the presidency. I am increasingly finding myself on the other side of that argument: that we are underestimating the vitality of communications and the reality that the modern presidency is essentially a nonstop campaign. That persuasion and building the team (not the people you hire, not the personal relationships with other elected officials over decades, I’m talking about defining and building the entire electoral coalition) are the foundation of success rather than nice add-ons to the real job.
MomSense
@Kay:
My youngest son was bullied in junior high. It was terrible. We ended up leaving the school and going to a charter school (they are different in Maine public and share oversight with the public schools). The charter was full of kids who had been bullied in surrounding public schools. In my son’s case a group of kids would prevent him from entering or leaving his classes unless he showed his green card. They made other comments along the same vein.
The school didn’t do a thing. Teachers brushed it off. Well that same group of kids “hazed” a teammate their senior year of football camp. The papers reported it as hazing to protect the victim who was sexually assaulted. Bullies ignored get worse.
MisterForkbeard
@Eyeroller: Yep! I know. Just acknowledging the point that some engaged folks feel that way. I don’t agree with them, but they do feel that way and they’re not trying to troll us.
Same with (most of) our commenters here. Though one in particular really skirts the edge as a troll, but is definitely a toxic asshole.
Kay
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
I think if the Democratic electorate had seen this decline prior to the primary we would have had a different primary. I think they (reasonably) relied that 2020 Biden was equal to 2024 Biden.
But I actually respect your opinion. I think it’s the best argument he has – he’s won the primary. That’s a principled take, IMO. Me? I think we have to win or we’re screwed so I’d try something rather than just shuffle off the gallows. Probably less principled but okay in this instance because Trump is an existential threat. If Trump were Mitt Romney I’d be with you.
Bupalos
@Kay: I see the NAACP speech as by far his best effort since the debate. I gave it an (uncurved) B-
but yes, all the folks calling out ulterior motives because we can’t possibly weight “1 bad debate” over “22 good appearances” I think aren’t understanding that we think like 19 of those 22 appearances have been bad-to-very-bad and exhibit a very marked decline in communication skill from even 2022. “Not a train wreck” isn’t going to get it done.
the NAACP speech not so much. Garbled a line and blew it off, and at one point clearly missed a segue between home ownership and climate so he intoned it as if climate legislation was part of how we helped build black home equity… outside of that I thought it was “good old Biden” with the emphasis on good rather than old.
I hold an outside hope that he really was sick the entire month. His voice was waaaay better.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: Biden isn’t failing to communicate though. He’s making his case strongly and fairly effectively in all the speeches and interviews he’s been giving since the debate.
We’re all responding to a media that’s shaping that in the worst possible ways and has spent years building up a drumbeat of a narrative waiting to be able to tie it to something real.
It doesn’t matter how good you are unless you’re an Obama. You can’t break through that. Trump couldn’t if the media wasn’t so onesidedly helping him.
We need to win on the ground and not through trying to affect the media noise or we can’t win at all.
Chris Johnson
@Soprano2: I think you’ll find right now the Republicans are going to mightily resist not only the idea of doing any kind of investigation, but even the idea of asking the doctor that presumably saw his ear, how he was doing.
I’m pretty sure the assumption was that he was taken off to hospital to be checked out, because that is what you’d do if a man got shot or cut with flying glass or bled in ANY way from ANY sort of bad thing happening.
I’m going to predict that not only the Republicans, but also nearly all the media, will behave as if it is perfectly normal to hear nothing about this aspect at all, not a squeak.
Shouldn’t say that, one Republican is making a stink. That Republican is Michael Steele, so we’ll see how that goes.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Kay: Mitt Romney is no better than Trump, A.
B, if they force Biden out I’m done with Democrats forever.
C, the decline is overstated. I watch with my own eyes from multiple events. Not just what Tiktok and the NYT feed me.
ETA:Oh and D, if it’s Gavin Newsome, I’m actively voting for Trump.
Sister Golden Bear
@Soprano2:
That’s one reason I’ve been using the pie filter far more frequently of late. Even if it’s people who’ve been long-time posters who’ve made valued comments in the past, once it becomes a sea lioning one-note dirge of “Game over man, GAME OVER” doom, then it’s time for me to tune them out for the time being so that I can focus on, ya know, winning. Instead of getting spending my time trying to talk someone off the ledge. I do toggle occasionally to see if someone is worth removing from the pie safe.
Kay
@MomSense:
We had (incredibly) what can only be described as “pro bullying” parents. They acted as if this were “political correctness”, which is why I turned it around to a school order and fairness issue.
I think about my public high school now and I just want to weep, that schools allowed that. They are allowed to insist that students behave decently because everyone, everyone has a right to be there and learn. Once I put it in the broader “orderly school” frame the ridiculous pro bully parents backed down.
What it is a HIGHER BAR for behavior and we are allowed to shoot for that. Kids understood it immediately, because kids are the “fair” police. They want fairness. It’s the single thing they most care about. When I do mediations with juveniles I love how it turns into the Geneva Conventions “he hit me but his dad just died” (mitigating factors) “she hit me but I’m bigger than she is so I didn’t hit back” (proportional force). They have an intuitive understanding of fairness. All we have to do is bring it out.
I’m glad you found a school. No one should have to endure that.
Suzanne
@UncleEbeneezer:
A few things:
1) The coalition is broad and includes a lot of squishes. Understanding how other people — other people who you want to behave in a certain way — make choices should affect how you influence them. It simply does not work with many people to shout about ratfucking. It doesn’t. Even if it’s true. It makes people hate politics, you lose credibility as a partisan, and it leads this swath of people to…. just not vote.
2) But maybe there’s something else that’s motivating! Find that thing!
3) We could also, in the future, look back on this whole fucken disaster and learn lessons. Maybe we could avoid it in the future! I have said before that, IMO, the best-case scenario would have been for Biden privately to have decided not to run again two years ago, and spend that time raising Harris’ profile. Not give her quagmires like the border. Give her opportunities to raise her profile and shine. Talk up the Biden-Harris shared success! Then announce, with plenty of time for her (and others) to form good campaigns, that you’re not going to run again but that you have all the confidence in the world that your successors will continue to build on your pyramid and see your vision through. We are now in a position with no great options. We might win anyway. But I don’t think the Dems gave themselves the best shot.
Kathleen
@schrodingers_cat: Dear God. A real shit show. From what I’ve read online a lot of people here were offended by his book. I think he’s very dangerous because of his Thiel connection. I find it interesting that many Rethuglicans immediately complained about his wife. I don’t get a sense that he’s really popular here and I’m not sure his fellow Rethuglicans overall are thrilled with him.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: Except Biden isn’t actually too old to run again, and trying to predict against the debate being a perfect storm of issues connected to a hostile media two years in advance is only something you can do if you have magical powers.
Two years ago Biden would be weighing the risks of his age against the risks the electorate would reject a black woman. It’s entirely unclear that it’s still not riskier to run the black woman, even despite the debate hit.
You want to know what Dems could have done to prevent this situation? Not bail out the US economy during the pandemic.
They could have let everything completely collapse under Trump’s watch. It’s what the Republicans would have done if Hillary had won. We would have had huge pick ups and Trump would be done forever. It also would have caused immeasurable damage to a lot of people. We’re constrained by that. We’re constrained by the media being in the tank.
We aren’t going to win by trying to avoid these things, we can only win by enough people waking up to the dangers the Republicans present and as a whole rising up to stop them. And if enough people don’t, it won’t be because we weren’t trying it’ll be because they were refusing to pay attention or take it seriously.
We don’t have agency there. Either the country grows up or it doesn’t.
And I’ll note, the only reason why things are close enough for any of this to matter is because too many white people can’t let go of white supremacy enough to not slit their own throats. We also don’t have agency over that.
Suzanne
@Kathleen: I have seen some gross comments made about Usha Vance. I don’t know how widespread they are. I hope: not widespread at all.
Sister Golden Bear
@Soprano2: Regardless of whether the bullet grazed Trump’s ear, or it was a shard of glass, Eric Trump said the wound didn’t require any stitches.
We all know Trump loves keyfabe, and the consensus of Medical Twitter was that such a large bandage wasn’t the best for the type of likely wound. I don’t remember the bandage type, but it’s better to use one that’s tighter fitting to minimum outside contamination. But that wouldn’t have been as conducive to the cultists putting large fake bandages on their ears.
Suzanne
@Eolirin: See, that’s where we aren’t aligned. Biden’s age was a known liability in the last election cycle. He knew it then and made vague comments about being a bridge to the next generation of leadership. It doesn’t take amazing foresight to know this was going to be a bigger hurdle this cycle.
To me, a Dem winning the election is more important than Biden winning the election, and I can’t help but think that it would have been far more prudent for him to quit (or decline to run again) while he was ahead, proverbially. Perception problems are real problems.
MisterForkbeard
@Kay: I think the problem with this approach is that it makes a huge assumption that Biden will definitely lose or that we have a better option.
But I think we really don’t have a better option – polling on a replacement shows the best candidate is probably replacement level or just slightly better, and that’s before the mass shit-slinging happens, the media drumbeat on “why did you cover up that Biden’s a vegetable and doesn’t that make Dems worse than Trump” narrative, the inevitable legal roadblocks the Republicans will mount that will (probably) fail but still hemorrhage time and money, etc.
If Michelle Obama comes out and says “Look, I’ll replace Biden” I think we might have something there. But we don’t, and even despite all this stuff Biden is… still doing well in many of the polls and fundraising has been excellent this month. 538 thinks Biden is still the (bare) favorite to win after 3 weeks of the worst press anyone could imagine. RCP (which does knowingly load the averages for Trump) has Biden at the same spread as before the debate.
Even the recent “60% of Dems think Biden should be replaced!” polls are kind of misleading. Evidently the normal number is ~30-40%. And it’s still a very open question of “who would replace him” and everyone gets to insert their own best candidate into that question – I assume that drives the number even higher.
Basically, the “Should Biden Drop Out” question is one that should be asked – but also one that’s seems like it’s been answered. Not much upside to replacing him, but the longer we publicly agonize about it the worse it will be for Biden
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Even if it’s Gavin, vote D. He’s a slippery weasel, but he’s good on some things and he presents well on TV. And also Trump is incredibly terrible.
I’ll be pretty angry if they force Joe out (and I think it’s really stupid), but I’ll crawl over broken glass for the Dem nominee. Doesn’t matter who it is.
MisterForkbeard
@Kay: You’ve told (some variation) on this story before, and I’ve always really liked it. It’s a good lesson with a happy outcome.
Kay
@MisterForkbeard:
Thanks! It’s so funny how I turned into a public school defender because I disliked school (until college). I think that has helped me to understand my delinquents in my practice.
I think I still hold the truancy record for my high school. I once arrived for a year of high school two weeks late.
My parents were the original free range parents. They worked hard and I never lacked material support but we basically raised ourselves.
Suzanne
@MisterForkbeard: I agree that there is no better option at this point.
I do think all politicians at that level — Biden included — have a huge ego. It’s difficult for people like that to know when to let someone else take over.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: Quit for who is the thing. No one would be free of issues. Harris certainly isn’t. To be clear, I’m not saying his age isn’t an issue, or that it wasn’t a predictable one. I’m saying trying to run an issue free candidate is a mugs game. And so you’re weighing is this a fatal issue? And prior to the debate, I think it’s very easy to think no, not really.
And the debate really does seem to have been a fluke that we just can’t let go of.
Like, if he hadn’t had a cold it may have been completely different, and that’s just dumb luck.
Paul in KY
@tam1MI: Pres. Biden has got to step it up. Try a new drug. Keep his responses to anything short & to the point. Do stuff outside so he can wear sunglasses.
Sister Golden Bear
For a bit more context:
94% of Black women voters supported Hilary Clinton in 2016
96% of Black women voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012
90% of Black women voted for Joe Biden in 2020
I only did some quick searching, so I don’t have a breakdown of the percentage of Black women who voted for Trump in 2020, but he only got 8 percent of the overall Black vote.
I won’t rule out that Black women may be less enthusiastic this around, but the supposed huge drops in support for Biden and 18% support for Trump seem unlikely. (Also, as others have noted, the survey was done before the debate, so that’s not a factor.)
I don’t think reputable pollsters* are tipping the scales, but I do think there’s good evidence that fewer and fewer people are willing to be surveyed, causing pollsters to extrapolate more and more from limited data. And that’s causing the polling models to break.
*The Cut article doesn’t mention who did their polling, nor are there detailed cross-tabs that would help evaluate the reliability.
Suzanne
@Eolirin: You’re right that there’s no one who’s perfect. But I do think some people are just…. more aligned to be successful at specific moments. Usually due to a whole array of circumstances beyond anyone’s control. That sucks for ambitious politicians who spend years at this, though.
The Red Pen
@Chris Johnson: Chris! OMG!
Of course I remember you.
Nick was “Cerebus the Aardvark.”
I’d love to catch up. You can write me @ (remove spaces:)
f o r s y t h e (at) a l u m . m i t . e d u
schrodingers_cat
@Sister Golden Bear: Their sample was restricted to women ages 18-55.
Layer8Problem
@Paul in KY: Drug? What drug is he on? Please, fill us in.
TooManyJens
@Eolirin:
I wish we could get a peek into the universe where politicians and donors didn’t have an immediate freakout and start shitting on their own guy. Where Biden could just say “Yeah, I had a real rough first 20 minutes, huh? I haven’t done one of these for a few years, had some trouble getting warmed up. Then again, the other guy had a rough 90 minutes. I hope you’ll look at the substance of what both of us said.” And we could all get on with talking about what Biden’s done vs. what Trump did/will do.
You can never be sure, but I bet that’s a better world than this one.
@Caveatimperator:
I’m betting that 90% of the people saying they’ll vote for Kennedy at this stage are just using that as a way to express that they don’t like either main candidate very much. It doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily vote for him, just that they want to register “hey, I’m not happy over here!” That’s how it usually happens, though god knows how much “usual” patterns apply to 2024.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@MisterForkbeard: If we’re going to be undermining the entire democratic process, I’m going all the way. Full civilizational collapse.
TEL
@Belafon: Excellent comment! It largely mirrors what I’ve been experiencing as well. I try to keep my occasional posting on BJ positive – promote more light than heat, and I appreciate that in your comment. I’ve been having a hard time doing that lately – I’ve had to pie a lot of people because I’ve come to realize, regular commenters or not, their continual negative comments in every thread are meant to do the opposite, and I’m seeing it as largely attention-getting behavior. Pie-ing them keeps me from feeding that negativity and giving them that undeserved attention.
Subsole
@Belafon: Yeah. These idiots have no clue how bad they’re fucking up right now.
Subsole
@Cacti:
Replace him with whom?
Uncle Cosmo
@Caca: You’ve been a content-free crock of shit since you first showed up here. Fuck off and die in a fire.
Paul in KY
@Layer8Problem: Some geriatric drug to help with aging. I’m sure he must take something. That’s what I meant by ‘drug’.