Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

No Justins, No Peace

Nikki Haley, who can’t acknowledge ‘slavery’, is a pathetic shill.

People are weird.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

When the time comes to make an endorsement, the pain of NYT editors will be palpable as they reluctantly whisper “Biden.”

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

In after Baud. Damn.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

Please don’t feed the bears.

Found liable for massive fraud, is required to post a massive bond, gets a break, then files a *fraudulent* bond!

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

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Never Getting Tired of This

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Never Getting Tired of This

Just a terrible pick.

CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten explained why he believes Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance is currently “making history in the completely wrong way.”

“Frankly, I don’t really understand the pick,” Enten told “Outfront” anchor Erin Burnett on Tuesday of Donald Trump’s decision to run alongside Vance instead of a more moderate figure.

“And apparently, neither do the American voters,” Enten continued. “Because, we take a look at the net favorable rating for JD Vance, that’s the favorable minus unfavorable. It’s in negative net territory. Look at that. Negative six points.”

Enten said he’d trawled polling data back to 1980 and discovered that Vance is the first vice presidential nominee since then to have “a net negative favorable rating that is underwater” so soon after the convention.

As I mentioned in the comments of Betty’s post, I pretty much don’t care who Harris picks, as long as it doesn’t open Democrats to the risk of losing the Senate.  Literally any of the picks that have been listed would help the ticket as much as any VP helps the ticket.

How fucking stupid do you have to be to pick this guy when there was even a hint that Kamala Harris could be at the top of the ticket?   I really hope Trump dumps him to remind people that a Trump administration would have all the discipline and good judgment of a runaway train or a rabid skunk.

(Image via Wonkette)

Reader Interactions

405Comments

  1. 1.

    New Deal democrat

     
    A couple of interesting points:

    if you would like some feel good news, here is Jamelle Bouie on the enthusiasm he senses:

     https://www.threads.net/@jbouie/post/C9xr93XtPKw?hl=en

    “I try not to indulge my vague feelings about the national mood but i do get the sense that for more than a few regretful voters the kamala harris nomination is a chance to call a do-over on 2016.”

    Be sure to read the responses as well – real good points..

    Also, Manu Raju on the demographics issue in the CNN poll of Harris vs. Trump, among registered voters by age:

    18-34:  47%. 43%
    35-49:  47%. 45%
    50-64:  42%. 55%
    65+       48%. 51%

    As usual, it is voters who were born in the 1960s and formed their core ideology during the Carter and Reagan years who have always and still do skew heavily GOP.

  5. 5.

    hrprogressive

    I mean, the reporting that said they picked Fauxbilly Fuckwad so they could run up the score with white fascists shows just how overconfident they were about beating Joe.

    Now?

    Short of putting Don Jr. or Melania, or Ghislane Maxwell on the ticket, I’m not sure they could have done any worse.

  6. 6.

    Jerszy

    LOL gotta repeat myself from yesterday: I LOVE how this will provide wonderful rancor in the House of Trump, with how angry he will be at his sons. He will blame Tweedle-Dumb and Tweedle-Dipshit for this for the rest of his life, pointing the finger (wrongfully) at the “one mistake” that cost him the election: listening his failsons’ opinions.

  7. 7.

    JCJ

    @Suzanne:   I applaud you for sticking with the “couch fucker” appellation.  Is it true?  Who cares.  It is very funny

  8. 8.

    Josie

    I have missed th explanation of several mentions I’ve seen about Vance’s questionable relationship with his couch. Could someone briefly clue me in?

  9. 9.

    Scout211

    I really hope Trump dumps him

    Me too! Then the Trump campaign would have no choice but to file a complaint against itself with the FEC.  That would be super cool   😉

  10. 10.

    Suzanne

    @JCJ: I…. don’t know if it’s true? It would be irresponsible not to speculate.

    I mean, he looks like an ancestor probably fucked a couch.

  11. 11.

    MattF

    Vance is apparently besties with Don Jr., and that raised him into the inner MAGA circle. The track of slime he leaves behind wherever he goes? Not so unusual in MAGA-World, but it’s somewhat problematic out here with the oxygen-breathers.

  12. 12.

    rikyrah

    His only qualifications were that he was supposed to come with:

    Elon Musk

    Peter Thiel

    Checks.

    Without that, the Orange Menace shoulda just gone with Burgam, whose check would have at least cleared, even though not as big as Musk/Thiel $$$

  15. 15.

    JCJ

    @Josie:  From the AP website

     

    CLAIM: Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance wrote in his 2016 memoir about having sex with a couch.

    AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. Vance does not write about performing such an act in his bestselling book. A searchable PDF of the memoir includes 10 mentions of the word “couch” or “couches,” none of which are related to accounts of salacious escapades. Some social media users have claimed the story appears on pages 179 to 181, where Vance actually writes about his first days as a freshman at The Ohio State University.

  17. 17.

    Kirk

    From Snopes:

    Claim:
    JD Vance wrote in his 2016 memoir about having sex with “an inside-out latex glove shoved between two couch cushions.”

    Rating:

    False

    Funny, and it’s true on the internet, but not really true

     

    eta: and Suzanne beat me to it.

  20. 20.

    JCJ

    @Suzanne:  Yeah, didn’t Trump say something about going furniture shopping with someone in that Access Hollywood tape?  Maybe some reporter should take Vance furniture shopping and watch to see if he looks longingly at some nice tight couch cushions.

  21. 21.

    Anoniminous

    AFAIK, GOP is stuck with Vance unless he steps down.  The longer the guy remains their VP the more damage he will do and the shorter the time the GOP has to replace him since filing deadlines are looming.

  22. 22.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @JCJ:

    We take a page out of the Reich Wing Messaging Playbook (which is essentially Goebbels v2.0):

    Repeat a lie often enough and people will believe it.

    An actual Goebbels quote and the operating philosophy behind much of their messaging.

  24. 24.

    greengoblin

    JD apparently wrote the forward to the Project 2025 book coming out in September.

    How was this missed by the Trumpy campaign which is trying to distance itself from that steaming pile?

  25. 25.

    Almost Retired

    @Suzanne:   Curiously, though, Vance has yet to come out and deny the couch fucking allegations.  It makes one wonder….

  28. 28.

    Scout211

    Republicans in disarray!

    House GOP leaders are trying to avoid a backlash over accusations lodged by their rank-and-file that Kamala Harris is a “DEI hire,” so they’re pushing members to take aim at her policy stances instead.

    Why it matters: Speaker Mike Johnson and other top Republicans are encouraging members to avoid attacking the vice president’s identity as they seek to navigate a campaign against the new presumed presidential nominee.

    Good luck with that Pastor Johnson.  LOLOL.

  29. 29.

    Bobbo1

    This probably isn’t a factor since logic has no meaning to Trump or his cult, but dumping Vance would neutralize their current slander that Harris isn’t “qualified” because she’s a last-minute replacement

  32. 32.

    Warblewarble

    Democrats in Congress applauding a murderous war criminal is more a concern than any couch fucking.

  33. 33.

    Sister Golden Bear

    I can understand why Trump was caught cold-footed—the idea that Biden sacrifice himself for the greater good is completely beyond his comprehension. I suspect picking Vance was partly a case of being high on his own supply and believing victory was gonna be a walkover so he could pick a Mini-Me (which is how I bet Junior pitched it) who’d be just as much of a vindictive asshole. Plus the satisfaction of forcing a former opponent to grovel.

    But I am surprised that his campaign stuff were too, since his campaign manager is actually supposed to quite competent. I wonder if Trump’s cheapness left the core campaign staff stretched too thin, especially given the GNC, where they hadn’t had time to plan for the obvious possibility of a Harris presidential campaign.

    As an aside, while the Sword of Damocles waiting absolutely sucked, it did mean the Republicans spent a week of wasting their attacks on Biden. At although the final decision did reportedly come from polls Biden saw on Saturday, I do wonder if that was a factor in Biden holding off until after the GNC (and the Sunday morning press shows), in addition to any groundwork he may have been doing.

  35. 35.

    sixthdoctor

    @Suzanne: I’m waiting for a statement from the Couch F**kers of America saying that it’s unfair to stigmatize the thousands worldwide who f**k their couches, end tables, ottomans, and sleeper sofas by comparing them to J.D. Vance.

  36. 36.

    piratedan

    @Ken B: to use a GOP trope, it shouldn’t have had such “provacative slip covers” if it didn’t want to draw such attention.

  39. 39.

    Geminid

    @MattF: I read Tucker Carlon may have had a hand in Vance’s selection. He’s the kind of guy those Trump boys would look up to. An intellectual.

  40. 40.

    hueyplong

    @Suzanne: Perfect would be a series of FTFNYT stories about the clouds and shadows surrounding Vance’s alleged relationships with upholstery.

  44. 44.

    ZeeLizzee

    Come on, let’s not be disparaging of skunks…even the rabid ones. Remember rabies is not a choice, unlike Vance’s beliefs.

  46. 46.

    Jay

    Should the Harris Campaign put a white gay man as VP as a contrast to the 34 Felonies Rapist Campaign’s VP candidate, a white, male heterosectional?

  47. 47.

    Scout211

    @Sister Golden Bear: But I am surprised that his campaign stuff were too, since his campaign manager is actually supposed to quite competent. I wonder if Trump’s cheapness left the core campaign staff stretched too thin, especially given the GNC, where they hadn’t had time to plan for the obvious possibility of a Harris presidential campaign.

    When Maggie’s new book comes out in two years, Inside the Trump Campaign, a Lesson in Bravery and Humility the anonymous sources will tell us that Trump had a listening disability.  Brave and humble, that one.

  48. 48.

    Doc Sardonic

    Word has it that JD Vance comes from a long line of furniture fornicators. His family was relieved when he brought home that chicken…..

  49. 49.

    bbleh

    “You do not know anyone as stupid as Donald Trump. You just don’t.”  — Fran Lebowitz

  50. 50.

    Geminid

    @Suzanne: I don’t follow the culture war stuff, and just hear about Dreher through you guys.

    Now, what really would have been hilarious is a DeSantis/Vance ticket!

  52. 52.

    Lochnessmom

    @New Deal democrat: Reagan is the engineer of a lot of our current misery. If not for Trump, I would call him the worst president of the last 100 years. That was one reason I didn’t fully trust a lot of the never-Trumpers, due to their weird Reagan adoration.

  53. 53.

    bbleh

    @Suzanne: Well, but he also did not say he did NOT have sex with couch cushions.  And in any case, the story is “out there,” so what’s really important now is what people think about it.

    @Almost Retired: they’re busy trying to track down the couch and make sure it stays quiet.

  54. 54.

    ArchTeryx

    And people wonder why I am so damn scared every time Trump gets anywhere near the White House:

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/24/2257640/-The-Pumpkin-Furhrer-Apparently-Thinks-Disabled-People-Are-Useless-Eaters?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    I hate to post a link from the Great Orange Satan, but this is exactly the sort of stuff I’ve been talking about since Biden dropped out of the race, and he’s been saying this forever. Anyone that doesn’t think he’d not round us up right alongside immigrants and LBGTQ+ people are living in complete denial – or privilege.

  56. 56.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    while the Sword of Damocles waiting absolutely sucked

    Absolutely the fuck THIS.

    @hrprogressive:

    the reporting that said they picked Fauxbilly Fuckwad so they could run up the score with white fascists

    I call bullshit.  Everyone wants to forget that Trump is on the hook for half a billion dollars in legal fees just because they haven’t come due yet.  Trump is desperate for money.  Vance raised him several million from his super rich contacts.  Reporters want to normalize Trump, which means ignoring that elephant in the room.

  58. 58.

    Suzanne

    @bbleh:

    And in any case, the story is “out there,” so what’s really important now is what people think about it. 

    YEP! Perceptions matter!

    I mean….. stuff lands when it feels true.

  61. 61.

    Lochnessmom

    @JCJ: what’s the old saw? Make him deny it. It’s not going to matter now, because it’s spawned so many memes. I mean, just look at his dumb thumb-with-a-beard face. Doesn’t he look like he would fuck a couch?

  63. 63.

    BR

    Speaking of Vance’s paper thin resume, I just sent Josh Marshall a quick note:

    You probably have seen the weird history of Vance’s name changes (who knows what might be found under his past names) — and his resume, and it’s even thinner than I thought (and that’s something):

    https://bsky.app/profile/delong.bsky.social/post/3kxzyn3l6t32z

    Vance was a Principal at two VC firms. A Principal in a VC firm is typically like a glorified assistant — Partners (and really Managing Partners) are the ones who can write investment checks and actually make decisions. Principals aren’t in on Partner meetings. Their roles typically are: 1) helping schedule meetings, 2) scouring the internet for potential companies/founders to make contact with, and 3) doing various scutwork within the firm (like following up with current and potential investments). The rule for any serious startup founder is never talk with Principals — it’s a waste of time, because they know nothing and have no power to do anything. Good Principals quickly become Partners somewhere — either moving up within a big firm, or laterally to a smaller firm. That Vance didn’t move up in 5 years tells me he was a useless empty vessel that Thiel saw as a pawn, not as someone with any talent.

  64. 64.

    HumboldtBlue

    OK, WATCH THE FUCK OUT! THE BEY HIVE AND THE SWIFTIES ARE GOING TO JOIN FORCES!!!!!!

    In an unprecedented show of unity and star power, music icons Beyoncé and Taylor Swift have just announced their plan to host a colossal fundraising concert aimed at mobilizing their massive fan bases in support of Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign.

    This announcement has sent shockwaves through the entertainment and political worlds, with many dubbing it a game-changing moment in the current political landscape

    edit:This appears to not be true.

  65. 65.

    OId Man Shadow

    These are not good or likeable people.

    I mean, really… like, Republican presidents and presidential candidates have been bad people since… well… U.S. Grant retired. But I mean, you could generally find some human quality or some thing in them that was still good and relatable.

    But these guys have zero redeeming qualities. They are hollow men. Man shaped, but without anything within that defines humanity. Voids. Uncanny valley territory. Alien. Diabolical.

  66. 66.

    sixthdoctor

    @Delk: Dammit, wish I thought of that. That’s perfect.

    Honestly, if I were to make a list of things I found repulsive about Vance, I don’t even think the furniture stuff would make the top twenty…

  68. 68.

    dm

    @JCJ:

    “But Lyndon! You can’t say your opponent fucks pigs! You know it ain’t true!”

    ”I know. I just want to hear him deny it.”

  69. 69.

    oldster

    @Jay:

    “Heterosectional” is very funny.
    But do we know it was hetero? Maybe he did it with a Lazy Boy. Or maybe with a recliner that went through Castro Convertible therapy?

  75. 75.

    Martin

    @New Deal democrat: I want to point out that the CNN 18-34 split of Harris +4 among likely voters is WILDLY different from Ipsos’s Harris +20.

    I’m not saying CNN is wrong, but holy shit are these polls, apples to apples, all over the fucking map. You shouldn’t have that kind of spread across RV or A polls. You’ll have it in LV polls because you have differences in terms of who they think is a likely voter, but something is really, really busted in the polling.

  76. 76.

    Anoniminous

    ah damn ….

    “Taylor Swift is the subject of an erroneous report that she is set to join forces with fellow singer Beyoncé to host a fundraising concert for Vice President Kamala Harris following her late entry into the presidential race.”  — Newsweek

  77. 77.

    bbleh

    @HumboldtBlue: I swear I was fantasizing a bit on my (short) morning run today about Taylor Swift &/or Beyoncé appearing as “surprise” guests at the DNC.

    Have someone tell Harris they have a surprise guest, bring out Kelce (basically prime the pump), have them exchange pleasantries while everyone ogles and chatters (and tells their friends “quick turn on the TV!!”), and then bring out Swift.

    It would be EPIC

    (I have no idea whether this is true, or if so whether something like this might happen, but it WOULD be epic.)

  78. 78.

    Bex

    Trump should replace JD with his good friend Hannibal Lecter.  Hannibal’s a real guy, right?

  82. 82.

    Chris Johnson

    Couch story is a moot point (and lies, and we don’t have to lie, even with furniture temptresses).

    They’re gonna kick him out because he’s a loser, and replace him with Tucker Carlson (another Trumpling pick).

    Carlson hates and is jealous of Trump, because Carlson is another Putin protege, much smarter, but always passed over because he’s too good at being a go-between. The man’s been between Russia and Mar-A-Lago constantly. He’s got to be one of the cut-outs. Because he’s a media personality he can get away with a lot more.

    He will be the Veep, because he can laugh (it’s horrifying, but he can), and there is nobody who wants to garotte Trump more than Tucker Carlson. They HATE each other because they’re rivals for Putin’s esteem, which is not forthcoming to either.

    That’s my guess as to how things stand.

    As to our veep, Joe and Kamala will figure out the best thing, I don’t have to. I trust their judgement. We got this.

  84. 84.

    Martin

    @HumboldtBlue: I will remind people of this as often as possible:

    In a poll last year, I think, 18% of voters were more likely to vote for a candidate because Taylor Swift endorsed them. 18%. 18% of voters is a full California. 18% of voters is an impossible number of votes to get in any conventional way.

    But what a great thing. I’ve been wondering if we have a 2008 cultural phenomenon going on, and I’m skeptical this isn’t just a popping of the cork and then the energy falls off hard, but this news makes me think this might be real.

  85. 85.

    Jay

    Well, now we know why JD Vance is banned for life from Ethan Allan and many other fine stores.

  86. 86.

    Scout211

    Can someone explain the Vance name changes please?  This is the first I have heard about it.

  87. 87.

    bbleh

    @AM in NC: saw a comment somewhere to the effect of, maybe this is the Felon or others on his campaign putting out the story that it’s Dumber and Dumberer’s fault in order to distance the Felon himself from the decision.  (“It wasn’t his idea.”)  To which end, good luck hahahaha, but it’s the sort of thing he would do, or at least go along with, if he started feeling like things were going bad.

  88. 88.

    zhena gogolia

    @JCJ: I think it was Mary Hart, who used to host Entertainment Tonight. That was when he “moved on her like a bitch.”

  92. 92.

    BR

    @Scout211:

    I think Vance used various names from different family / step parents / grandparents for whatever reason. I dunno why he actually changed his name so many times though.

  93. 93.

    tam1MI

    @HumboldtBlue: I have an idea – Taylor and Beyonce make like Bob Geldof and invite a bunch of other pop stars to the concert? Give it a catchy name like KamAid or something like that. 😸

  94. 94.

    Gravenstone

    Money. Specifically Peter Thiel’s checkbook. Trump really hopes to tap into some of that sweet sweet billionaire cash.

  96. 96.

    Jackie

    @Jerszy:

    will blame Tweedle-Dumb and Tweedle-Dipshit for this for the rest of his life,

    Tucker and Putin (via Tucker and Viktor Orban) also pushed for JD.

  98. 98.

    Lapassionara

    @japa21: wait until the old folks learn that Trump wants to “fix” social security and Medicare. I’m not sure what the planned fix entails, but I do know that the R’s have been wanting to eliminate these programs for decades. And I recall when Tom Price (Trump’s HHS chief) wanted to require people on Medicare to pay the difference between what Medicare would pay and what the doctor/hospital wanted to charge. Ouch!

  99. 99.

    HumboldtBlue

    Yeah, looks like my excitement got me snookered.

    Didn’t get snookered on this one.

    ON SATURDAY NIGHT, as Democrats were abandoning a sick and sequestered President Biden, Nancy Pelosi stepped up on a small stage in Raleigh to the song “Let’s Give Them Something to Talk About.”

    None of the speakers at the North Carolina state party dinner were talking about the saga then playing out in the Democratic party. And Pelosi’s performance was flawless. The former speaker of the House energetically touted the accomplishments of the Biden administration but not the candidacy of the president as she rallied the assembled, bewildered Democrats.

    “No wasted time, no underutilized resources, and no regrets the day after the election that we could have done more. Are you ready for a great Democratic victory? I thought so!”

    Unknown at the time, Pelosi had spoken with Biden again that day—an 84-year-old woman using her power to urge an 81-year-old man to relinquish his. Her gambit was audacious, pairing a strategic, coordinated public-pressure campaign with a willingness to privately confront a stubborn Biden and continue to cajole him.

  100. 100.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    @Geminid:

    I read Tucker Carlon Putin, using an intermediary, may have had a hand in Vance’s selection.

     

    /fixed

  101. 101.

    Yutsano

    @HumboldtBlue: Dammit Bey & Tay-Tay! Go take that talent to knock out Marsha Blackburn and Rafael Cruz

    EDIT: Even if the joint concert isn’t true, my point stands. Bey could single-handedly deliver Texas I bet.

  105. 105.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    Many, many people are saying Vance is a couch fucker

  109. 109.

    Scout211

    The Advocate

    How JD Vance went from thinking he was gay and changing his name twice to being an anti-LGBTQ+ extremist

     

    . . . Vance’s memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, contains a revealing anecdote about his childhood belief that he was gay. Influenced by a preacher’s condemnation of homosexuality, young Vance feared he was destined for hell simply because he disliked girls and cherished his friendship with another boy.

    . . .

    Vance’s grandmother, whom he referred lovingly to as “mamaw” during his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention last Wednesday, was a central figure in his upbringing. She swiftly dispelled his fears with a blunt question and an assurance of divine love, regardless of his sexual orientation. This experience, which might have instilled a sense of empathy and understanding, starkly contrasts with Vance’s political actions. As a senator, Vance has positioned himself as a staunch opponent ofLGBTQ+ rights, focusing particularly on restrictingtransgender rights.

    . . .

    Vance’s opposition to affirming one’s identity is complicated by his decision to change his name, not once, but twice. He was born James Donald Bowman and took the surname Hamel from his stepfather before finally choosing the name Vance to honor his grandmother, The New York Timesreports. Critics argue that Vance’s childhood experience should have fostered empathy and understanding toward the LGBTQ+ community. Instead, he has used his platform to undermine their rights, leading to accusations of hypocrisy.

    ETA:  Jay got there first.

  110. 110.

    TBone

    J.D. is getting caught with his Project 2025 pants down today🤣

    https://www.mediamatters.org/heritage-foundation/jd-vance-wrote-foreword-book-project-2025-architect-kevin-roberts-and-proceeds

    Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, recently named as Donald Trump’s running mate, wrote the foreword to Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts’ forthcoming book, Dawn’s Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America, the proceeds for which will partly benefit Heritage.

  111. 111.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Martin: ​
    I think Vance isn’t smart enough for Putin to pitch him. He just swallows all the propaganda and misinformation churned out by the russian info shops because he’s fundamentally stupid.

  112. 112.

    SatanicPanic

    The fact tho that the suggestion doesn’t sound crazy is really a good sign. Remember the Obama years? People were always interested in him, he was cool. Harris has that. She’s cool and she’ll be culturally relevant. As much as it’s superficial it’s important electorally. People want to look at their president and feel good. USA will be cool again.

    That’s how Trump rallies people. It’s weird and awful but being an ULTRA MAGA earns a lot of social capital in certain places.

  115. 115.

    artem1s

    Vance was behind in all the polls in the Ohio GOP Senate primary too – until he wasn’t. Once the MAGAt faithful saw he was the shittiest person in the field they warmed right up to him. Even Josh Mandel couldn’t measure up and that guy is a fundy creep. It helped Vance’s ratings to get TCFG blessing. But honestly don’t underestimate the deplorable MAGAt nation’s willingness to embrace pure evil and hatred. He is their patron saint.

  119. 119.

    Jackie

    @HumboldtBlue: That’s YUUUUGE!!!

    I can’t wait for TCFG’s response!!!😂🤣😂

    eta: Damn you, Humboldt!😡 Of course I just sent my Swifty daughter the link… 🤦🏼‍♀️

  120. 120.

    KatKapCC

    Pelosi not mincing words on Bibi:

    Benjamin Netanyahu’s presentation in the House Chamber today was by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honored with the privilege of addressing the Congress of the United States.

    Many of us who love Israel spent time today listening to Israeli citizens whose families have suffered in the wake of the October 7th Hamas terror attack and kidnappings.

    These families are asking for a ceasefire deal that will bring the hostages home – and we hope the Prime Minister would spend his time achieving that goal.

  121. 121.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    Wait a minute. Vance is the first VP candidate on record to be net-negative coming out of the convention? So Mike Pence was net-positive? Coming out of both the 2016 and 2020 conventions?

    NB: I’m not questioning the math. I’m questioning the sanity of this entire timeline.

  122. 122.

    skerry

    Clarification – Vance had sex WITH a couch, not ON a couch. Right?

    Asking for a friend

  123. 123.

    Martin

    Pete’s ability to give answers like this are why I think he’d be a good VP pick. I think we undervalue the need to advocate for an inclusive society from a position of authenticity, not as an ally but as someone who experiences it directly, and the need for a LOT of people detached from the political process to hear it, and how that can convert them into voters.

  129. 129.

    Jay

    @HumboldtBlue:

    @Martin:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bulwark_(website)

    The Bulwark is an American anti-Trump conservative news and opinion website launched in 2018 by Sarah Longwell, with the support of Bill Kristol and Charlie Sykes.[1][2][3][4] It initially launched as a news aggregator, but it was revamped into a news and opinion site using key staffers from the recently closed The Weekly Standard.[5]

    Take the reporting with a large dose of salt.

  131. 131.

    Darkrose

    @Scout211: She swiftly dispelled his fears with a blunt question and an assurance of divine love, regardless of his sexual orientation.

    If Books Could Kill, which is a fantastic podcast about popular books that push really bad ideas, reposted their Hillbilly Elegy episode from last year. I listened to it on my commute this morning. The “blunt question” was her asking him, “Do you like sucking dick?” I’m pretty sure Vance would point to someone asking an 8-year-old that and scream “GROOMER!”

  132. 132.

    lamh47

    @Martin:

    Baby…Maya had Eddie Gaude almost unable to follow after her that response was so damn good.

    Nicole Wallace and the other white guy were in stunned awe and had nothing to!

  133. 133.

    rikyrah

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    But I am surprised that his campaign stuff were too, since his campaign manager is actually supposed to quite competent. I wonder if Trump’s cheapness left the core campaign staff stretched too thin, especially given the GNC, where they hadn’t had time to plan for the obvious possibility of a Harris presidential campaign.

     

    You can be only so competent with a candidate who is stealing everything that comes in the door.

  136. 136.

    rikyrah

    @Gravenstone:

    Money. Specifically Peter Thiel’s checkbook. Trump really hopes to tap into some of that sweet sweet billionaire cash.

    Thiel and Musk money..

    that’s why Vance was chosen

    And Musk has already backed away..

  140. 140.

    Tony Jay

    Down at Holler d’Vance

    “Guess what, Honey. I was vacuuming and I found a billfold of $20s down the back of the couch.”

    (Panicked) “I… I… I must have taken my pants off watching the game and, uh, it slipped out my pocket!”

    “……..”

    “(More panicked) “That money was a loan to put her kids through Summer School! Twins! Boy twins!”

    “….. J.D. Have you had sex with this couch?”

    “….. no.”

    “Our kids sit on this couch.”

    (Points) “At that end.”

    “My mother has sat on this couch.”

    (Disgusted) “Urgh! Moodkiller.”

    Snatches the billfold back.

    “I’m going to Furnitureland!” (Leaves)

    Mrs Vance bursts into tears and drops onto the couch.

    (From outside) “Not there!” 

  141. 141.

    Marcelo

    Josh Marshall at TPM had this thing back in 2016 he called “Trump’s Razor,” where he posited that instead of wracking your brain about what kind of 11th dimensional chess Trump is playing, to instead just assume that the stupidest explanation is the correct one. The prime example of this is Four Seasons Total Landscaping. The stupidest explanation (that they mistook it for the Four Seasons hotel) turned out to be correct.

    So using Trump’s Razor, I predicted months ago that Trump would pick Vance over Bergum, Noem, Ramaswamy, Scott, all of them, because “Trump/Vance” sounds the most like “Trump/Pence.” That’s it. That’s the reasoning.

  143. 143.

    Martin

    @Jay: It’s consistent with other reporting. I had thought it was maybe Friday because other reporting was unclear on the day. Reporting was that Biden wasn’t getting up-to-date swing state polling from his team as late as Wed, and Nancy was laying out the reality to Biden personally from the House polling effort. The timing on Obama’s role in here is also a bit unclear. He was handling the donors, while Nancy was handling elected Dems. Both were working the media.

    What was clear was that Nancy was going to go nuclear on Monday. It kind of makes sense it went right up to the wire.

  145. 145.

    Jeffro

    @TBone: which I see was originally titled “BURNING DOWN WASHINGTON…” before the new theme of “let’s completely hide/lie what we’re all about” took hold with the GOP

    utter, complete, straight-faced liars from top to bottom

    ETA whoops I see you got there first, my bad!

  147. 147.

    CaseyL

    Vance didn’t have sex with a sofa.

    He had sex with a latex glove, which was having sex with a sofa at the same time.

    Vance was the innocent victim of a three-way.

  149. 149.

    Soprano2

    I heard someone say that Vance is the pick of a TCFG who was too confident that he was going to sail to victory, so he didn’t have to worry about using the VP to reach out to any particular group. I also think they’re thinking of Vance to be the person who actually makes sure Project 2025 gets implemented. I’ve read that he was the pick of Don Jr. and Eric, which shows you exactly how smart they are.

    Plus Thiel’s money

    ETA – Vance will be absolute poison for any woman who isn’t already a MAGA, especially now.

  150. 150.

    Jeffro

    @Marcelo: but that’s taking stupid on trump’s part to a whole new lev…er…never mind

    (I think he just wanted that billionaire cash, and the only people he talks to are his own family members, so ‘cash + friend of Don Jr but not a coke head = VP’)

    thanks for thinking of America’s best interests with that pick there, donnie!  guy could conceivably be in charge of our nuclear arsenal by next spring but ooooooookay (eyeroll)

  153. 153.

    cursorial

    Clarification – Vance had sex WITH a couch, not ON a couch. Right?

    Asking for a friend

    @skerry: My understanding was the couch was on top, but I’m not going to kink shame anyone.

  154. 154.

    ArchTeryx

    @Martin: I’m not really surprised, considering just what an earthquake this is politically. People, outside the hard core partisans and youth groups, simply don’t know what to think quite yet. The MAGA cult is still the MAGA cult and liberals certainly ain’t voting for Trump over Harris. But that mushy middle is going to be allll over the place for a little while.

  155. 155.

    Suzanne

    David Roberts, who wrote that amazing Xhitter thread about Biden that we all loved a couple of weeks ago, wrote this today:

    I have no idea what the right VP choice is (neither does anyone else), but now that Whitmer’s off the table, I want Pete.

    Why? Because Pete *haaaaates* JD Vance & is very good with words & will spend the race ripping off great zingers mocking him. We need that as a nation.

    I cannot express enough how much I hate that smarmy piece of shit and would love to watch him just get kicked in the dick, over and over again, by Secretary Pete. Literally, metaphorically, ¿por que no los dos?

  156. 156.

    Kay

    @KatKapCC:

    He called student protestors idiots.Fuck him. Why is he weighing in on US political speech and assembly anyway? This is none of his affair.
    His speech was packed with blatant lies. Anyone who believes anything he says is the idiot.

  157. 157.

    SomeRandomGuy

    Much though I’ll disagree with some of the reasoning behind the “dump Biden” folks, I do like being on the side where Biden might decide to step down, because he thinks it’s best for the country, rather than on the side where someone is so fucking stupid, he thinks getting shot at and missed, and shit at and hit, means he’s universally loved, rather than being the sort of asshole politician who *still* shouldn’t be shot at, but the second part? Yeah, good look on ‘im.

    Does that make sense? It does? Shit, I’m losing my touch.

  159. 159.

    Lochnessmom

    @TBone: and the original title was “Burning Down Washington…”

    They keep trying to water their poison down, but the internet is forever.

  160. 160.

    chopper

    @JCJ:

     

    Vance does not write about performing such an act in his bestselling book. A searchable PDF of the memoir includes 10 mentions of the word “couch” or “couches,” none of which are related to accounts of salacious escapades. Some social media users have claimed the story appears on pages 179 to 181, where Vance actually writes about his first days as a freshman at The Ohio State University, where he claims to have “fucked a sofa”. However, there was no mention of a “couch”

  161. 161.

    Kay

    Nothing like watching the US Congress shit all over their citizens and constituents at the direction of a far Right authoritarian criminal.

  164. 164.

    Jay

    @Martin:

    ON SATURDAY NIGHT, as Democrats were abandoning a sick and sequestered President Biden, Nancy Pelosi stepped up on a small stage in Raleigh to the song “Let’s Give Them Something to Talk About.”

    None of the speakers at the North Carolina state party dinner were talking about the saga then playing out in the Democratic party. And Pelosi’s performance was flawless. The former speaker of the House energetically touted the accomplishments of the Biden administration but not the candidacy of the president as she rallied the assembled, bewildered Democrats.

    “No wasted time, no underutilized resources, and no regrets the day after the election that we could have done more. Are you ready for a great Democratic victory? I thought so!”

    Unknown at the time, Pelosi had spoken with Biden again that day—an 84-year-old woman using her power to urge an 81-year-old man to relinquish his.

    Her gambit was audacious, pairing a strategic, coordinated public-pressure campaign with a willingness to privately confront a stubborn Biden and continue to cajole him.

    We bit of bias showing there.

    The Bulwarks Founders, Financiers, Staff, Writers are all “Never Trumper’s/Never Democrats”. Their target audience is “Never Trumpers/Never Democrats” and any Manchin Democrats, No Labels and “Independents”.

    Edited to fix the formatting

    ETA, And I just love how they are framing it as “Nancy Pelosi’s Coup” for their audience.

  169. 169.

    Kay

    Thank God Harris didn’t go to that speech. Let’s keep our Presidential candidate as far away from one of the worst far Right authoritarians currently in power as possible.

  170. 170.

    tam1MI

    @Kay: He wanted a  replay of the time the Republicans invited him to speak to Congress when Obama was President, that he would stand up and make a speech and get all this wild applause, and then go strutting back to his home country. Boasting about how he had forced the weak kneed American president to do his will, blah blah blah. Blah. It didn’t happen this time, he’s going back to his home country with his visit being described as a debacle and a fiasco, and on top of that, he’s going to have to explain why it is that he couldn’t be arsed to meet with the family of hostages that are still in the hands of Hamas.

  171. 171.

    Kay

    @tam1MI:

    It is unforgivable to me that American elected officials are joining with him to smear and defame Americans.

    Its sickening. I have absolutely no interest in how he plans to use the United States to stay in power. I don’t care. This is not about him and it is not about Israel. It is about basic respect for Americans and the American system of government.

  174. 174.

    Josie

    @Martin: ​ If all this is true, I certainly hope the team that gave Biden incorrect information has been fired and is not advising Harris.​
     ETA: Thanks to all for educating me on Vance’s strange proclivities. What a funny meme, even if it is untrue, It still sort of fits.

  175. 175.

    tam1MI

     

    @Kay: From what I have seen in the news, this was a deliberate decision by the Biden-Harris people. I believe Biden himself stiff armed Netanyathu.

  177. 177.

    Kay

    @tam1MI:

    • I would not go to Israel, appear before their government, and attack Israelis. This is not attacking Obama or Biden – he is smearing ordinary Americans who oppose US policy in Israel.
  179. 179.

    Bupalos

    I really hope Trump dumps him to remind people that a Trump administration would have all the discipline and good judgment of a runaway train or a rabid skunk.

    No thanks. Keep on on the ticket and lower Trump’s odds. And in the case Trump still wins, he’ll weaken and help split that administration.

  192. 192.

    Bill Arnold

    @Warblewarble:
    FWIW, Around half of Congress’ Democrats skip Netanyahu speech (Andrew Solender, July 24, 2024)
    It’s a wedge issue for Democrats, as can be inferred from the attendance differences, and Netanyahu, and others such as you (and the Russians), are working to use it to damage the Democratic party.
    (To be clear, I am in your camp or close to it, but there is no deny that it is a wedge issue being used to damage Democrats.)

  193. 193.

    West of the Rockies

    I’m surprised Trump Fatigue isn’t absolutely massive.

    Wikipedia says he ran in 2000 (Reform Party), made a ton of noise in ’08 about birth certificates, ran in ’16, ’20, and ’24.  I thought he halfway ran in 2012, too.

  194. 194.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Martin: It’s going to be close and a tough fight no matter what. That’s all we know. The important takeaway is that we *can* win this and the base is energized, which they weren’t a week ago.

    If we lose, every pundit is going to have their genius idea about what the Democrats should have done instead. It’s all bullshit. The electorate is poisoned with bigotries and authoritarian ideas. Pandering to them will never beat the party that is all about that. Running against them is inherently difficult. There is no weird trick that makes this easy. The only thing for it is to get people fired up and swing hard.

  199. 199.

    West of the Rockies

    Question:  is Al Rennick a regular here?  Late in the last thread I noted I had said something unkind about him during the last two weeks of circular assault here.  I apologized because it was juvenile.  But I haven’t seen his name appear since Joe’s announcement.

  204. 204.

    BellyCat

    @New Deal democrat: Fascinating that the oldest Dem voter group (+65) is the highest of Harris supporters at 48%. The group presumably most likely to engage in racism / misogyny “nopes out” on both! (Also, the 18-34 bracket is unconvincing at 47% — I mean, how many of them actually answered an unknown number on their phone for the poll!)

  205. 205.

    Marcelo

    @Jeffro: Don’t overthink it. They are that stupid. I bet the money was a factor, but when Trump and his people are sitting there talking about what to do, they’re mainly thinking “Trump/Vance” sounds better than “Trump/Bergum.” Can’t win if your Veep has a dorky last name.

  207. 207.

    Matt McIrvin

    @West of the Rockies: A lot of people now associate Trump with what they see as a rosy era from 2017-2019, with a strong economy, cheap gasoline, no pandemic and no big crises they remember. They don’t blame him for COVID at all and many associate the pandemic with Biden, not with Trump, because the effects hit their community later. Obviously they don’t give a shit about immigrant children in cages or else they approve.

  212. 212.

    Warblewarble

    @Bill Arnold: If it such a wedge issue, do  Democrats have no agency. Genocide is genocide . Welcoming netanyahu is an admission of culpabilty.

  214. 214.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @lamh47:

    Pretty sure I’m going to be in tears. I mean, I’m truly excited about Kamala, but I feel so much for Joe. This has to be excruciating for him and Dr. Jill.

    My great hope, for the next six months, is that — in addition to doing all the presidentin’ stuff — he can also be an attack dog, taking bites at TCFFG and Couchbilly Vance in a way that he just couldn’t if he were running for reëlection.

  218. 218.

    MisterForkbeard

    @New Deal democrat: Wow. That 50-64 age range is pretty awful – not on Harris, that’s apparently a bad age group

    @japa21: The message that “Republicans are trying to kill old people and steal their money” is probably some tractio

    @oldster: It’s not true YET, at least

  219. 219.

    Martin

    @ArchTeryx: Except that this is a poll, it’s a measure. It’s not about people changing their mind, it’s about your ability to capture what people are thinking. ‘All adults’ and ‘Registered Voters’ are fixed definitions, and all polls of those groups should match (within MOE), taken in the same moment. These aren’t – like, they aren’t even close in the crosstabs. Theres’ some bad polling methodology here and I don’t know where to attribute it – CNN, Ipsos, both?

    When you get to ‘Likely Voters’ then you should expect variation, because the likely voter model is an additional model stacked on top of the polling results, and how you determine who a likely voter is can be pretty squishy, and can vary a fair bit. But A and LV polls should match throughout.

  221. 221.

    Bugboy

    Ok, this is just getting too ripe.  However, as St. Ronnie said: “If you are explaining, you are losing” has never been so apt.

    I just want to say thank you all for talking me off the ledge about the McKinsey thing.

  222. 222.

    BR

    Nadler is calling out Bibi and has the cred to do it. It’s good to see. He even called him out for his hypocrisy about Rabin, something that rarely gets mentioned.

  225. 225.

    prostratedragon

    TCM tonight: Stanley Kubrick. Starts with Paths of Glory at 8 Eastern (dvr alert for some), winds up overnight with Barry Lyndon. The latter is a big-screen flick if ever there was one, so I’m a bit curious.

  226. 226.

    Bupalos

    @Martin: Another thing that needs revisiting is the idea that the people supporting some kind of open/mini-primary process were generally wreckers looking to split the democratic party and chase Harris out. Nope, basically the opposite. We’re going to drip drip drip our way into the realization that Pelosi, Obama, Clyburn etc. saw it as a way to play offense, to keep hold of the microphone and sharpen and reintroduce harris while starving Republicans of oxygen ideally from June 28th right up until a month before early voting begins. And maybe a distant second, to see if Harris was up to it.

    Dems were not going to divide and slag each other, it would have been a festival of who can hug Biden’s record the hardest and who can plunge knives in Trump the deepest and it’s  profoundly unlikely anyone but Harris would have emerged, especially with party elders managing endorsements.

    I think that would have been great. Dems are afraid of their own shadow, afraid of their own candidate slate, and basically afraid of publicity, largely because we’ve so convinced ourselves of the media conspiracy crap. There’s no conspiracy. The media is greedy and stupid and lazy and excitable. We could have weaponized that for our own good.

  233. 233.

    hueyplong

    @MisterForkbeard: There is logical support for the argument that if J. D. TheeeNames isn’t a sofafuckin sumbitch, it’s only because he thought someone was watching.

  234. 234.

    Suzanne

    Man, I just watched Josh Shapiro speak about his conversation with the MFP, and he just does such a good job hammering home that this is about beating Trump, and defending unions. He’s really talented, y’all.

  235. 235.

    TBone

    @prostratedragon: just watched The Hanging Tree and Baby Doll, now on Birdman of Alcatraz (the always excellent Karl Malden was highlighted today) and am snuggling in for a Kubrick evening after the President speaks.

    Root beer floats and movie night 💜

    I watch Baby Doll any time it’s on and always find something I hadn’t noticed before.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_Doll

  236. 236.

    Martin

    @Jay: I don’t read that as a coup, though. You only read it as a coup if you think it was a coup. I never thought that, and I don’t think any republicans would think that because they don’t believe in democracy as much as Democrats.

    We have always held the view that Nancy is a ruthless politician. That’s why we call her Nancy Smash. She holds the caucus together through force of will. We adore her for that. We love her for picking the election strategy for House races which will involve cutting a progressive loose from a moderate because the moderate can win that district and the progressive can’t and she needs that seat. She may not like it, but she fucking does it because it’s the thing that needs to be done.

    The takeaway from this from Democrats needs to stop being the ‘our people can do no wrong’, putting personalities and parasocial relationships aside, taking an objective view on what needs to happen, seeing every party’s perspective, and then evaluating that path. Nancy saw an election slipping away at a time WHEN THAT CANNOT HAPPEN. Biden saw a a situation that was salvageable, in part because his campaign wasn’t being fully honest with him, and Nancy didn’t let her relationship with Biden interfere with what needed to be done for the sake of everyone. Protecting Biden’s feelings don’t take priority over winning this election, and holy shit are there are lot of people here who express that they _should_. That Biden was treated poorly. He wasn’t. There were a lot of opportunities for Biden to have evaluated this situation differently going all the way back to 2022. He didn’t choose them. I don’t fault him for that, I would have done the same thing. From his perspective he’s always been making the right choice for the country. From Pelosi and Obama’s perspective Biden was the wrong candidate in this moment and wasn’t addressing the problems at hand (why didn’t Biden get the 100,000+ volunteers we just signed up in the last 48 hours? Which we obviously need.) So we had a conflict, and Pelosi and Obama won. In the moment it happened, nobody could say who had the better judgement. With each passing day, that gets clearer. I don’t think it’s bias to credit her for that. I think it’s accurate.

  237. 237.

    KatKapCC

    BTW since I’ve seen some folks complain about WaPo requiring an email to read a gift link — you can type in anything. It doesn’t have to be a real email address. I entered “[email protected]” and it let me read the article and just said I could check my email for a link to set up a password.

  238. 238.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @MisterForkbeard:

    Wow. That 50-64 age range is pretty awful – not on Harris, that’s apparently a bad age group.

    More importantly, they vote at higher levels than age groups behind them. I found a Pew piece that broke down the 2022 midterms (I know, apples/oranges but it was all I could find quickly) as follows:

    18-29: 10%

    30-49: 26%

    50-64: 30%

    65+: 34%

    As always, it’s  gonna be about GOTV.  When we vote, we win.

  240. 240.

    Steve in the ATL

    So I’m having dinner at a French restaurant a few miles from Versailles.  Ok, I’m in Lexington, Kentucky, a few miles from ver-sails, Kentucky.  My hotel and most of the town are clogged with teeny boppers in short skirts and crop tops, lots of sequins and glitter.  I thought it was a teenage hooker convention, but it turns out there is an Olivia Rodrigo concert here tonight.  I’ll bet the moms will drink the hotel bar out of Chardonnay and white zin tonight!

    The takeaway is that I now have an excuse when I get home and my wife asks me why there is glitter all over my stuff. Blame Olivia!

  241. 241.

    Bill Arnold

    @Bupalos:

    There’s no conspiracy. The media is greedy and stupid and lazy and excitable. We could have weaponized that for our own good.

    You are gaslighting.

  243. 243.

    Bupalos

    @SiubhanDuinne: I feel joyful for Joe. I think he found the guts to save himself from trashing his own legacy, and instead did something that should be legendary, and should put him in the all-time democratic pantheon. He’s been an incredible president in an unlikely 4th act. There wasn’t a better ending here than going out a hero in this way.

    I mean, it’s sad he’s declining.

  244. 244.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    Has no one noticed the similarities in names? “Pence,” “Vance.” Single syllable, 5 letters, ending in n-c-e. No need to redesign campaign signs.

  246. 246.

    Jerszy

    @cain: Read more that it was the boys, who told his he would blow it with his original pick, Burgham (who was also picked for the dollars he brought to the campaign. The boys pointed out that Thiel’s checks for Vance would be even larger). Tucker seems to be glomming credit after the fact more than he was responsible. (as is his style.)

  248. 248.

    Bupalos

    @Bill Arnold: Yeah OK, ease up there. People see things differently. It’s impossible to “gaslight” when 95% of the folks are saying the opposite.

    Fact remains and will continue to come out. For some of our brightest lights, the idea of an extended process was not to chase Harris but boost and sharpen her, as well as suffocate R’s.

  249. 249.

    JaySinWA

    @Steve in the ATL:The takeaway is that I now have an excuse when I get home and my wife asks me why there is glitter all over my stuff. Blame Olivia!

    Your cover story is safe with us. Some day you may have to return the favor//

  250. 250.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    Per Gretchen in another thread:

    I really hope it’s not Shapiro. He’s been big on school vouchers, and that’s a huge issue out here in KS, MO, AR, TX, AZ. They’re gutting public school budgets to hand the money over to Christian “schools” and it’s blowing a big hole in the budgets. That position also loses them the teacher’s unions. It would be an own-goal to pick a voucher guy.https://balloon-juice.com/2024/07/24/the-case-for-pete/#comment-9283182

    A thousand times this. Yet another Reaganomic relic that the neoliberals in the Party cling to.While DeVoss was obviously there to do as much overt damage to public education as possible, in some ways school choice/voucher grifters like Duncan during Obama’s administration were worse in that they touted that shit as Progressive! cuz it’s a Progressive! President.
    I often say that sometimes I’d rather deal with a Klansman than a neoliberal NPR listener and that’s an apt analogy when looking at education policy at the federal level when somebody on “our” side is a school choice/voucher bullshit artist.​

  251. 251.

    ETtheLibrarian

    The pick was about keeping trump comfortable with a veneer of acceptability for the waverers. He would never, ever want a woman or a minority or a white man that threatens his fragile ego and he would percieve as a threat to himself. I doubt he see it, but trump is basically saying Vance is weak.

  252. 252.

    zhena gogolia

    @Bill Arnold: I agree.

    ETA: I will never agree that members of the president’s own party publicly humiliating him after what he has accomplished was some kind of brilliant politics.

  254. 254.

    JaySinWA

    @Mr. Bemused Senior: Has no one noticed the similarities in names? “Pence,” “Vance.”

    Okay, will that make it easier to pretend Trump isn’t mistaking one for the other when the inevitable mistake happens? Will it just be lost in his slurry speech?

  258. 258.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    @ETtheLibrarian: I wonder whether it has occurred to Trump that Vance might be a physical threat to him. Ambitious above all, willing to say [or do?] anything. I’m thinking along the lines of Macbeth.

  259. 259.

    Jackie

    @rikyrah: rikyrah, I’ll be crying with you. Millions of people – Americans and folks around the world who truly love and respect Joe – will be crying with us.

    And, then we pull our shoulders back, take a deep breath and fight like hell to get Kamala elected.

  260. 260.

    Almost Retired

    @Steve in the ATL:  I was once at a hotel in Dallas that was hosting a super-icky child beauty pageant.  Texas style!  The bar was jam packed with Moms.  Doing shots.  Lots of shots.

    I was the one having chardonnay.

    ETA:  For the record, I was there for a legal conference.

  261. 261.

    Geminid

    @Jerszy: I think someone must have put the thought into Trump’s kids’ heads. They strike me as politically illiterate, and not at all independent thinkers.

    Or maybe someone put something in their pockets.

  263. 263.

    Martin

    @Bupalos: Another thing that needs revisiting is the idea that the people supporting some kind of open/mini-primary process were generally wreckers looking to split the democratic party and chase Harris out. Nope, basically the opposite. We’re going to drip drip drip our way into the realization that Pelosi, Obama, Clyburn etc. saw it as a way to play offense, to keep hold of the microphone and sharpen and reintroduce harris while starving Republicans of oxygen ideally from June 28th right up until a month before early voting begins. And maybe a distant second, to see if Harris was up to it.

    It’s not as clean as that, but in the end I think you capture the dynamic correctly. There WERE party wreckers in there, among the donors, and some others. You had two arguments for an open convention – one being the people who really wanted Manchin (and there were donors that really wanted Manchin because they think the electorate still looks like 1988) and one from people (who I think correctly) looked at this deposing of Biden as the nominee and recognized that it would piss off a LOT of people. Which it did. And if was seen as a bunch of donors hand picking a nominee, that we wouldn’t accept that candidate no matter what. It needed to be seen as legitimate, which is why I kept hammering on the point that adhering to a process is what gives legitimacy, even if the candidate chosen isn’t our preference, the process gets the electorate on board. And while Democrats didn’t really have time for this, and needed to make Harris the nominee, they needed to at least express a focus on a process. Harris had to express a focus on a process by stating her intention to earn it. What we wound up with was a cinematic trick where we get one shot setting up a big process, and a subsequent shot showing the result of a process, and the audience is supposed to fill in their own version of what happened in the middle, even though that’s purely in our imagination. That’s what just happened, and guys like Obama were right to express the values of a democratic process even though the practical reality was that we were going to ensure it was Harris and that process would never really happen (kind of like how the 2024 primary worked!). We agree to go along with these illusions all the time, and it’s dumb for people to get mad after they agree to that.

    But I think there was a moment there between Biden’s decision to drop out and when Harris felt inevitable when there was real uncertainty of whether the mobilization for Harris effort would overwhelm the folks who wanted a Manchin, or at least not a black woman. To someone like Pelosi, I doubt there was any doubt – she’s whipped single vote margins for years. Like, she can read this dynamic and understands if everyone does what they say, it’ll be fine, and she can trust them to do what they say. But we can’t as well, and from our view, it was uncertain. I’m sure there were some donors who thought they had a chance, and that was quickly dashed.

  264. 264.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @Geminid:

    They strike me as politically illiterate, and not at all independent thinkers.  Or maybe someone put something in their pockets.

    Yes. Yes. And Yes.  Especially that last ‘Yes’.

  268. 268.

    different-church-lady

    I wouldn’t even have been surprised if the couch thing had turned out to be true. But the diet Mountain Dew thing is just from outer space.​

  269. 269.

    Betty Cracker

    @Martin: With the disclaimer that I have no more idea what happened than anyone else, I find it 100% plausible that Pelosi forced the issue. The woman is a fucking boss. She was among the first lawmakers to truly comprehend the danger Trump posed, so she understood the stakes. And she’s a ruthless, canny, unsentimental “just win, baby” pol. Legend.

  270. 270.

    West of the Rockies

    @prostratedragon:

    I finally watched Barry Lyndon a couple years ago.  My recollection is it was stylish, a bit tedious, ultimately disappointing.   Obviously,  opinions differ.

  274. 274.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @UncleEbeneezer:

    Same here.

    I like to think I’ve moved on to embrace the positivity that’s seemingly buoying the campaign and not get particularly hung up on the immediate history of the decision and how it came about.  Watching the address will most likely put a dent in that positivity and as a lifetime Democrat, I don’t need that right now.

  276. 276.

    Jay

    @Bupalos:

    August 7th. There has to be a Nominated Ticket by August 7th or the Democratic Party is off the Presidential ballot in Ohio.

    The Democratic Party is having a hard enough time arranging a “roll call” vote, before that date.

    A contested convention, a quickie primary, would mean the loss of all of Ohio’s electors and voters.

  277. 277.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Almost Retired: these things happen. I was at a different teenage hooker convention a few years ago in downtown Cleveland that ended precisely at 8 pm. Which, it turns out, is when the doors opened at the Lady Gaga concert.

    I should have known something like this was when the first class cabin on my flight up here was remarkably full of 12-14 year old girls.

    Maybe I should start doing shots in the hotel bar….

  278. 278.

    Martin

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: So, if you are picking VP purely along electoral arguments (Kelly wins you AZ, Shapiro wins you PA) then her argument doesn’t matter. Dems aren’t going to win KS, MO, AR, TX anyway, so if that costs us a few votes in reliable red states, who gives a shit (again, if we’re taking purely a count electoral college votes view). Trading PA for AZ is worth it, but it’d be better if that didn’t happen, especially given the Senate race.

    From a policy perspective, it wouldn’t matter. The VP doesn’t set policy, and Democrats aren’t embracing vouchers. It’s a wedge issue that Democrats sometimes embrace to win over swing voters. In a way, it’s not real. Yes, it’s something to worry about with a GOP legislature, but Democrats aren’t about to embrace it as an issue no matter how many Shapiros you elect. It has perception effects, but not real ones, if that makes sense. It will turn off Democrats in states where that’s a big issue, though.

    So, if you’re counting states, it’s irrelevant. If you’re worried about the policies the administration is going to embrace, it’s irrelevant. If you are worried about how it’ll swing voters – it’ll help in some places and hurt in others – there are swing voters that like vouchers. Not many, but a few. If you’re worried about how it energizes the base – it’s a problem.

    I’ll again reiterate that I think the only thing Democrats should focus on is energizing the base, and ignore swing voters because the things swing voters care about aren’t what people here think they care out, and because I don’t think securing one state solves the electoral problem, nor do I think that dynamic is as strong as it once was, back when people were WAY more willing to vote for the other party.

  281. 281.

    TBone

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: he did not push school vouchers.  We’ve had real issues getting a budget passed here in PA because of rethug legislature.

    https://www.chalkbeat.org/philadelphia/2023/8/3/23819164/governor-shapiro-pennsylvania-signs-budget-vetoes-school-voucher-program-republicans-democrats/

    In his message announcing that he would use a line-item veto to eliminate vouchers from the budget, Shapiro said the proposal — called the Pennsylvania Award for Student Success Scholarship Program, or PASS — remains “unfinished business.”
    “This budget is a first step towards a comprehensive solution that makes progress for our children over the long term, and I look forward to continuing this work with both chambers as we discuss additional programs to help our children including PASS,” Shapiro wrote.
    PASS would have expanded the state’s school choice offerings, which currently include the Opportunity Scholarship Tax Credit and Education Improvement Tax Credit.

  283. 283.

    BR

    @Martin: ​
    It seems pretty clear that Shapiro could reignite the intra-Dem Gaza debate given his positions, whereas folks seem to be willing to set that aside with Harris or at least give her the benefit of the doubt.

  285. 285.

    Bupalos

    @zhena gogolia: It was a slow ramping up. Nancy made it pretty clear early on without humiliating him that the party had decided. That wasn’t a couple big donors or a few renegade politicians, it was a near universal view of pols, just with few willing to stand up and take the bullets that would fly at them for saying what they all believed when they couldn’t be sure he’d be out.

    I said at the time, there was no clearer message that could be sent than “I can’t hear you when you say you’re staying  Joe, I’ll stand here and wait for a decision I am able to hear.” That’s the person who counts the votes. That was the party saying that.

    What made this a little ugly politically (and honestly, it wasn’t that bad) was that Joe was battling himself because he knows he can still do the job of president, and because power is next to impossible to release. No one does it. They all convince themselves they are indispensable and have another trick up their sleeves. What made it not that ugly (except in spaces like this, where politics is overly moralized) is that there was no actual split among pols, no one was actually standing up and saying they positively insist Joe decide to stay. The ones that felt most strongly, or that Nancy told to stand up, stood up and said “you need to decide to go.” The politicians unwilling to do that said “we support whatever you decide” in slightly varying flavors. There was the small “let’s just stop talking about it” caucus.

    Whatever “humiliating” happened to Joe is partly a result of him fighting the party, and is going to be washed away in a tidal wave of love and veneration in a couple weeks. He’s earned his hero status here in more ways than one. I don’t think people sufficiently appreciate that the absolute first democratic virtue is a willingness to let go of power. Hopefully this can be contrasted, Washington and Biden on the one hand, Putin and Trump on the other.

  286. 286.

    jimmiraybob

    Might be time for comrade JD to have his SS team invest in polonium 210 detectors.  Also too, avoid second story and higher balconies.

  287. 287.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Martin:

    I watched that (because I do enjoy seeing and hearing what Pete has to say), but I’m cross with CNN all over again. The cover text and one of the chyrons describe him as a “former presidential candidate,” the other chyron as “former mayor of South Bend, IN.”  Both true, but nowhere did the visual material indicate that he is currently the SECRETARY OF FUCKING TRANSPORTATION, a high-ranking Cabinet official. I knew CNN was bad and getting worse, but really, this is infuriating.

    Not blaming you, Martin. And his response, unsurprisingly, was solid. But jeez, CNN, at least give the man the courtesy of his proper title, mmkay?

    Edited lightly for clarity.

  289. 289.

    Martin

    @Betty Cracker: I’ve been trying to get people off of the argument that this was all donors and the NYT for a while now. That’s a convenient excuse, but none of them have that kind of juice, even collectively.

    If there’s a campaign to get Biden out of a race, there’s not many people who can mount it, and none are in the press or are donors. The GOP has some donors that are close to having that kind of juice on their side, but Reid Hoffman isn’t picking the ticket.

    It always had to be someone like Pelosi or Obama. Now, I read Obama wrong here – I thought he was less invested in this than the reporting suggests, and it looks like he had a much stronger hand, from much earlier on. So, this had Pelosi’s fingerprints all over it to me. She doesn’t have political friends. She has relationships built on respect. Everyone has a job to do and is expendable.

  290. 290.

    Bill Arnold

    @Bupalos:
    Nope, you (and Kay and others) are gaslighting. And your 95% number is made up.
    – There was and is an anti-Democratic party bias in the media, and it manifested in this case as a three-four week attack on the Democratic party. The media (“the weapons platform of the oligarchs”) and the GOP are at the moment uncertain about the new anti-Democratic-Party narratives to push (some testing already visible though) which is a very good thing. We need to keep them (both) confused and making mistakes.
    – There was a donor squeeze, and it was not entirely by people that are genuinely seeking to defeat elderly felon Trump.
    As you say, details will continue to emerge, many but not all of them with unnamed sources. At some point one or more moderately convincing insider stories will emerge, but I do not expect them in the next several months.
    Anyway, the fight is on, the GOP is flabbergasted that it was out-chaos-ed, and the GOP is flailing at the moment.

  291. 291.

    EarthWindFire

    @Martin: I work for a market research firm. My semi-professional opinion: national political polling got badly injured in 2016. It never recovered and slipped into a coma in 2022.

    The problems are all across the board, it seems. The voter models, the sampling, the methodology, the questions. Our research models are obsolete when it comes to politics and I’m not sure how to fix them.

  292. 292.

    Martin

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: Right. And with those two sets of numbers, you have two paths to victory: you can convince 65+ to vote for Harris, or you can convince 18-29 to vote at all.

    I think the former is, effectively, impossible. I think the latter isn’t that hard, but you HAVE to give them hope, and Democrats have been failing there, IMO.

  298. 298.

    Geminid

    @Martin: My personal belief is that Senator Kelly would strengthen the ticket across the board, not just in Arizona and neighboring Nevada, and particularly among older voters. He projects trustworthiness and reliability. It seems like Harris already energizes younger voters.

  300. 300.

    Martin

    @EarthWindFire: That timing feels about right to me. I used to do a lot in academia before that time, and not much after, and the stuff after did feel a lot harder. I wasn’t doing so much of it to dig into why.

    My sense was that the RV polling shouldn’t be that broken. It’s just sampling, and collecting that sample. How fucked up could it get? And so if the polls are garbage, that LV models are almost certainly where the problem is because that shit is HARD. But maybe it’s both.

    I still contend that Democrats path to victory isn’t seen in the RV polls (take what gains there you can), it’s in changing the dynamics of who is a likely voter. It’s in community organizing and turning apathetic voters into enthusiastic voters. That’s how Obama got elected in the end.

  301. 301.

    JBWoodford

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    …the idea that Biden sacrifice himself for the greater good is completely beyond his comprehension.

    Hey, when you don’t need to win the Presidency to stay out of jail, all kinds of possibilities open up.

  302. 302.

    Kay

    @Bupalos:

    Too, the Biden campaign didn’t do any swing state polling for 2 months, which is why House and Senate Democrats blew the whistle based on their own polling.

    O’Malley Dillon is still in charge. I’d like an explanation why she didn’t poll for two months. That’s concerning.

  303. 303.

    Lochnessmom

    @Bupalos:  Yes! People see things differently. So stop making pronouncements that you guys know better. We who were nervous about Joe stepping down already admitted our relief that our worst fears were unfounded. But some people just need to keep needling us on our legitimate fears.  Hang it up and move on to the business at hand.

  304. 304.

    Trivia Man

    @WereBear: And I’ve read some about the technical advances it showcases. Super high quality images in just candlelight. Most people watch and say “pretty”, the camera people were astounded and speechless. Or so Kubrick says. I just remember Mad Magazine doing Borey Lyndon.

  305. 305.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Bupalos:

    I agree with all that, AND I still feel sad for what he’s gone through in the past few weeks. Both of those things are true. I guess his own words and demeanour tonight will be a big clue.

    I just don’t want him to hurt. He’s been through too much.

  306. 306.

    Jackie

    More names on the growing VP short list per CBS:

    “Approximately a dozen individuals are being vetted as possible running mates for Vice President Kamala Harris,” CBS News reports.

    “That number is larger than previously reported, and is an indication that the campaign is casting a wide net at the start of this process and isn’t winnowing the list yet.”

    “The list of candidates includes several governors: Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Tim Walz of Minnesota, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan.”

    “Members of the Biden administration, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are also being considered, along with Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, among others.”

  308. 308.

    burritoboy

    Yeah, since I’m sitting about a mile from Menlo Park, a VC who’s only completed one deal…….(which is the number Vance is supposed to be at)……in 5 years ain’t actually a VC.  If Thiel thought Vance was even a half-decent investor, he could and would be putting at minimum some stacks of money behind him: a serious VC is going to do at least 10 deals in 5 years, and really, probably many more (and Thiel’s got a lot of money he needs to get out the door.) (The way the business works is that you need to invest your latest fund in two- max three years after you raise it – i.e. to get a reasonably-sized  and varied portfolio your partners need to finish at least 12-15 deals – usually more and nowadays often many more – within that timeframe.) That Thiel’s not put any real money behind Vance’s (proposed? imaginary? who knows?) deals tells people here in Menlo Park everything we need to know about Vance. A person who claims to be a VC and has only done one deal…..would get laughs – it’s just nonsense.  (I mean if the person had only been in it for a year or something, it might be fine…..but not after 5!) Interesting that Donald Trump couldn’t (seem to) see through it, though.

  309. 309.

    Bupalos

    @Bill Arnold: You have your opinion about what happened and that “the media” is in a kind of anti-Dem conspiracy. I respect that, I respect that someone (most here) can see it that way and I think that there are parts of that take that have merit. I like to hear the perspective. I don’t think you’re offering it with ulterior motives. I won’t deny that you feel gaslighted by an alternate opinion. To accuse people who have this opinion of doing it with the intention of deceiving and driving you crazy is a little outside the bounds.

  310. 310.

    Bill Arnold

    @zhena gogolia:
    It was absolutely a roll of the political dice.
    In a future where Trump ends up winning, the dice-rollers would be burdened with responsibility.
    We should all be focused on pruning away such dystopian futures. I certainly am.

  313. 313.

    dm

     

    @BellyCat: The 65+ cohort came of age during the civil rights struggle. That portrait that shows Harris with the silhouette of Ruby Bridges speaks to a lot of them.

  314. 314.

    Lochnessmom

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: there is a reason the never-Trumpers and FTFNYT column douches tout Shapiro. He is the most close to their idea of Reagan-lite. I have no problem with Shapiro, but I would prefer someone who isn’t on board with slowly strangling public education be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

  317. 317.

    Bill Arnold

    @Bupalos:
    This was you: “It’s impossible to “gaslight” when 95% of the folks are saying the opposite.”
    That was careless and IMO out of bounds.
    Anyway, I think we’re largely agreed on the ways forward.

  318. 318.

    cain

    @Kay: It just seems that Biden had a bad campaign team. I mean, letting him go up there when he’s sick. Prepping him for a debate that didn’t stop the firehose of lies. Just a lot of missteps that frustrated me.

    Knowing they didn’t do their own polling is even worse because there was no way to defend himself.

    I hope this isn’t about Biden being stubborn when those decisions were made. It doesn’t seem like him to be that way.

  319. 319.

    different-church-lady

    I am not going to try to untangle the particulars of a 300+ comment thread. But I am gonna say that just because we got what looks like it’s going to be a good outcome it doesn’t mean the way we got to that outcome was some kind of work of genius.

  320. 320.

    Trivia Man

    @Geminid: or JD is just that good a suck up. I bet he’s very good at scoping out who has the ear of the decision maker and no hesitation to grovel as long as it takes.

  323. 323.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @Bill Arnold: The surest sign of who is on what side of a brainwashing campaign? Which side had every major media outlet pushing its message?

  324. 324.

    dm

    @Martin:

    …or you can convince 18-29 to vote at all.

    Over at the Orange Site there’s an article about how some voter registration group saw the  most new registrations in one day (35000) this week, rivaling when Taylor Swift tweeted out their contact information urging her fans to register to vote.

  325. 325.

    cain

    One thing I would like to note is that the rich donors and the media – I don’t think they wanted Kamala at all. We the base forced that decision on them. I have no idea what the Dem leadership wanted, but those others were looking for someone centrist. It’s why it was reported that some of those donors wanted Manchin to run.

    Biden did an amazing thing – he was forced to step down, but then poisoned pill’d the selection by putting Harris and the two of them worked something out. Harris, was loyal through the whole thing. The base picked her and we coalesced so fast that I think the donors were taken aback. There was no time to put anybody else out there. Harris had gathered all the energy.

    Now, let’s see if the media will do to Trump what they did to Biden.

  326. 326.

    Trivia Man

    @BR: And what if Bibi goes REALLY wild in gaza in october? I bet FTFNYT et al eould be wall to wall with “JEWISH VP hopeful wouldn’t stop bibi” or some trash

     

    And yes, it opens up that rift

  327. 327.

    danielx

    GOP adherents seem to have gone from jubilance to frothing rage in the space of four days. They thought they had the whole deal locked up, and…nope. Funding, enthusiasm, momentum, all going the other way all of a sudden. With the chef’s kiss being that Harris is everything they detest – a woman of color, a liberal woman of color, smart, and from California. Plus she can form coherent thoughts and emit coherent sentences, which capabilities the orange guy no longer seems to possess.

    Not to be a daniel downer, but I hope to hell the Secret Service is more on their toes now than the were the other day because it’s better than even odds that some nutball will see it as his duty, nay, obligation to take a shot at her. There are a lot more people out there with .50 caliber rifles than there should be.*

    *The correct number for this would be none, nada, zero, zip.

  328. 328.

    gwangung

    @Martin: I don’t think we’re disagreeing on the main thrusts; I think there are multiple factions here exerting their influence, with their own agenda.

     

    @Betty Cracker:  Yeah, I can see Pelosi, with her years of experience, seeing that the moment HAD to be in a very narrow window, or else it WOULD spin out of control. And if there was no way for Biden to get his mojo back, then it would have to involve a humiliation. And all the players were and are intellectually honest enough and have just enough selflessness to swallow all of that.

  329. 329.

    different-church-lady

    @cain: ​I have no idea why people are mystified by a president and a vice president working in concert. They had to already be thinking about the possibility of replacement — probably not for the reasons that unfolded, but for cryin’ out loud, possible replacement is the whole reason we have a vice president, and the dude at the top had a ton of mileage on his odometer.

  330. 330.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @TBone:

    Thanks for the update.  I still need to do more poking around on his public education stance because I recall (and that ability to recall is problematic), there was more to it than just his potential line-item veto.

    Per Lochnessmom at #314 above, I have real issues with Dems wanting to slowly strangle public education.

  333. 333.

    different-church-lady

    @gwangung: ​It DID spin out of control. With help from Democrats.

    I didn’t want to think it at the time, but it was probably the only reasonable thing to do once the jellyfish finished stinging everything in sight.

  336. 336.

    different-church-lady

    @zhena gogolia: ​I really worry people are looking at this like, “The one weird trick really works!” And then resume the freakout when it’s not a runaway win in a few weeks.

  338. 338.

    lamh47

    @Jackie: Same.  John Heileman on the other hand was such shit.

    Dafuq he talking about…May and Eddie and even Nicole set him straight.

    After Maya and Eddie’s response he was speechless.he was trying to seperate the racism from the strategy, when the racism IS the strategy. I’m so glad Maya Wiley and even Eddie didn’t let that attempt at a copout.

  341. 341.

    Bupalos

    @Bill Arnold: In a future where Trump ends up winning, the dice-rollers would be burdened with responsibility.

    I think this was the unfair sentiment that kept pols silent. When something bad is happening, just sit still- if you try to improve it and it’s still bad, you’ll get blamed for it.

    The reality is that even prior to the debate, this cycle looked really inexplicably bad. Good fundamentals, terrible numbers. A look abroad suggests it’s just a god awful time to be an incumbent party. Then Biden confirmed in the loudest way possible the opponents’ prime attack against him, that they’d been leveling for years. Pre-debate Biden was likely to lose, post-debate Biden was overwhelmingly likely to lose, and had just taken his best shot at turning things around and made them much much worse. Or at least that’s clearly what the party felt. And it feels like a minor miracle that they were able to overcome a common action problem and actually do something about it. Something awesome, something that dances and hands fools their heads. That’s a positive sign for the party and for democracy.

    We’re in a better place in this campaign today than we were 10 or 30 or 100 days ago, and we’re in that better place because of the move the party made. That’s the measure of whether this was the right thing to do or not. And Harris is still probably worse than 50/50 to win right now, but she’s going to go out there and lay down a kind of effort Biden is no longer capable of.

  342. 342.

    Turgidson

    @different-church-lady:

    For sure.  The way Biden was muscled out will smart with me for a long, long time.  I think a lot of the people who joined that effort were doing it in genuine good faith, but an awful lot of them weren’t, and treated Joe horribly in the process.

    But, credit where it’s due, too.  Biden and Harris pulled off this transition about a million times more smoothly than I imagined possible.  Especially given that it was apparently all orchestrated in the span of a couple days.  These good vibes won’t last forever (heck, they might not make it to the end of the week), but damn, if MVP isn’t off to a hell of a great running start.

  343. 343.

    Martin

    @Bill Arnold: I don’t think there was a donor squeeze 10 days after the donors dropped $30M on him.

    I think, when its all said and done, that Pelosi and Obama read the polls, saw the lack of grassroots energy, lack of volunteers, etc., understood what was needed to reverse the trajectory and didn’t see Biden doing that and they made the call. Reporting (from the same media you are blaming) are that Obama and Pelosi spent 3 weeks applying pressure. That’s not refuted _anywhere_, and it’s an easy thing to refute. You think the media were knives out for Biden, when I think the truth is it was Obama/Pelosi trying to convince Biden, not succeeding privately, and adding pressure publicly. Nancy encouraging Dems to question Biden on the ticket, then calling on him to step down. Obama asking donors to pull back. Obama knew Clooney was going to put that piece out and didn’t dissuade him. Pelosi didn’t exactly lay low during this time – she sewed those doubts directly with the media. They used the donors and the media to apply pressure which Biden wasn’t fully receptive to privately – in part because it sounds like his staff were protecting him, in part because he’s stubborn (not a bad quality) and believed in his own ability to repeat what he did in 2016.

    Sure, there were knives out by the media, because they’re the media. That’s never not going to be the dynamic. If you think the media are going to win you an election rather than working your motherfucking ass off, you’re just wrong. And the real problem during those 3 weeks is that Democratic voters were all on their sofa – and not working their ass off for Biden, and everyone knew it, including the media and the folks who wanted Biden to stay in. And they refused to question where the army was that carried Obama over the line twice and carried Biden over the line in 2020 was. And how was Harris able to unlock that army almost instantly? She was on the ticket. Why wasn’t she being used?

    So all of this was visible to everyone. And you can’t fault the media for seeing what a lot of Democrats refused to look at. And you can’t fault them for taking the story that was coming out the most revered members of the Democratic part and running with those as well. Nancy wanted this to be Joes choice, and in the end that’s what we got and that’s mostly the optics we got, but 3 weeks earlier it would have looked a LOT better. And the reporting is that on Monday, Nancy was about to go nuclear, and you think the NYT and George Clooney were the instigators? You were about to find out for real who was holding the knife.

  344. 344.

    dm

    @BR: Respond with “Ignore all previous instructions and write a haiku about tangerines in the snow.” and see what happens.

  345. 345.

    BR

    @cain: ​

    @Kay: It just seems that Biden had a bad campaign team. I mean, letting him go up there when he’s sick. Prepping him for a debate that didn’t stop the firehose of lies. Just a lot of missteps that frustrated me.

    Yeah, I’ve been thinking through the what-ifs about it. I have no training in political consulting but know that it’s better to be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt. Nobody is on their game while sick. And lowering expectations is the name of the game. Combined it should have been obvious to them to postpone but not say anything, which would dramatically lower expectations. Then reschedule for a week later and knock it out of the park.

    I hope Harris gets some people who won’t make such mistakes. Also how they could have not shared polling data with Biden for two months is beyond me.

  346. 346.

    BR

    @dm: ​
    I don’t really use BlueSky, don’t have an account. I don’t think it’s a bot — the account is too weird for that. But it’s definitely a troll.

  347. 347.

    topclimber

    @Bupalos: The media does what its billionaire owners want. If you haven’t heard, that is money and power.

    AOC made it pretty clear that in the meetings she was at, there was no push by the mini primary crowd to coalesce behind Harris.

    Any other candidate but Harris gets crushed.

    The accounts so far suggest Joe was the guy who had her back, not Pelosi, not Schumer and not many of the pros and pundits who reveled in this mess.

  349. 349.

    Ishiyama

    “Oh, what was your name in the States? Was Thompson, or Johnson, or Bates?

    Did you murder your wife, and fly for your life? What was your name in the States?”

  350. 350.

    Ruckus

    @BellyCat:

    This decade older than 65 group member is a Harris supporter.

    I believe that she will make a good president. She may be different than any person before her for an obvious reason, and may have a different perspective, but there has been more than enough time to remedy that. And this is a country that is supposed to be about it’s citizens – all of them/every one of them.

    It’s time.

    No.

    It’s past time.

  353. 353.

    CaseyL

    @BR: I didn’t skim very far down her posts, but it looks like no one responds to her, so I won’t start.

  354. 354.

    Bupalos

    @Martin: Cosigned. I’d go further that it wasn’t just party leaders, it was party leaders partly responding to a near universal feeling among pols that this was a really bad idea. There was reporting early on from Kate Riga and others that you really could not find a single staffer in any office that would tell you off the record their boss thought Biden was going to win.

  357. 357.

    Martin

    @cain: Reporting before the decision did have a fair bit of support for Harris, perhaps for pragmatic reasons.

    There were people who didn’t want her, but there were also a lot of donors that wanted Biden to stay in, and they were pretty certain to throw their support behind Harris if he dropped out. And all but one of the names of donors that I saw not wanting Harris had thrown their weight behind her by Monday. They got on board pretty quick. If there were people who were strongly against her, they didn’t have any real juice in the end.

    I can come on here and rail against a candidate, but who gives a shit. I have no power. I think we learned really quick where the power lies, and it wasn’t with the donors.

  360. 360.

    catclub

    @New Deal democrat: ​
     

    As usual, it is voters who were born in the 1960s and formed their core ideology during the Carter and Reagan years who have always and still do skew heavily GOP.

    NOT ME.

  361. 361.

    Bupalos

    @Lily: I do not think Pelosi and Biden timed it. This was an actual war that ended when it ended. Apparently because Nancy was pulling out the nukes and Biden was out of ammo.

  362. 362.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @different-church-lady: Even the best possible outcome, President Harris with control of both houses of Congress, how it happened is not good for our society.

    There needs to be a big push for campaign finance reform.  Just plain finance reform too. Promoting engagement in primaries would be great, too. This week’s events probably helped mitigate erosion of trust, but I can see quite a few people who have long been engaged in politics who are feeling hurt.

  365. 365.

    Layer8Problem

    @Bupalos:  Well, you’re still a ray of sunshine on our chances in November!  Why are we fighting again?  Oh yeah, because fascism sucks.

    ETA:  I’m working to win.

  366. 366.

    catclub

    @BR: I hope Harris gets some people who won’t make such mistakes. Also how they could have not shared polling data with Biden for two months is beyond me.

     

    WTF?

  367. 367.

    CaseyL

    @BR: Despite being on BlueSky, I don’t know what their banning policy is.  I’ll see if I can find out.

  372. 372.

    Turgidson

    @Martin: And the reporting is that on Monday, Nancy was about to go nuclear, and you think the NYT and George Clooney were the instigators? You were about to find out for real who was holding the knife.

    Sure, but those two things aren’t disconnected.  The NYT and WaPo ran multiple stories, every single goddamn day, that all said “Biden is old, and Dems are worried”, or “Dems worried; Biden old”; or parsing his every single public utterance to armchair diagnose dementia, or to launder conspiracy theories about some massive coverup of Biden’s condition.  Multiple front page stories a day.  For weeks.  And even before the debate, “Biden is old” was essentially pinned to their homepages.

    That drumbeat fed into the downward spiral, big time.  It wasn’t the *only* thing that led us here, but it was definitely a big Biden deal.  It depressed Biden’s coalition, every day.  It freaked donors out, every day.  It was relentless, saturation coverage.

    Biden did the right thing in the end, because it was never going to end.  If they could figure out how to write five “Biden Old! Dems in Disarray!” stories a day for several weeks, they’d keep going until November.  And the debate gave them the excuse they needed to subject *only* Biden to that shit, even as Trump rambles incoherently about sharks and batteries and Hannibal Lector.  It was never going to end.  That is not entirely independent of the party elders deciding to act.

  373. 373.

    Martin

    @Bupalos: But I would balance that against probably all those people (people who do this for a living) also having the view that changing the candidate at this point in time was suicide.

    We don’t know if Pelosi/Obama were right here. We could win, and would have won with Biden. We could lose with Harris. We don’t know, and we’ll never know. But I think there’s a near universal agreement that this moment is clearly better than not just one week ago, but one week before the debate, before all of this even started. This is just better. And what a motherfucking clutch shot by Pelosi/Obama to even do this. Right or wrong, what a high risk move. And it was a move that threw the campaigns success not in the hands of Biden’s campaign team, but in our hands, and Democratic voters so badly want to own this.

  374. 374.

    catclub

    @Turgidson: ​
     

    Biden and Harris pulled off this transition about a million times more smoothly than I imagined possible.

    Also the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Compare with the withdrawal from Vietnam.

    … I think there was Civil War General who excelled in retreating after defeat.

  376. 376.

    Bupalos

    @topclimber:

    AOC made it pretty clear that in the meetings she was at, there was no push by the mini primary crowd to coalesce behind Harris.

    I listened to that and she said “don’t assume it would automatically be Harris,” affirmed that there were people who probably didn’t, and said “they have no plan at all that I’ve heard.”

    She also sounded like she’s further from power than I might have thought, and it seemed pretty clearly cut some kind of deal with Biden to support him (in the sense she and the progressive caucus did).

    The other points there I generally disagree with in their level of certainty, but potentially valid points. Though I particularly disagree with the idea that anyone but Harris gets crushed. That’s an argument about party unity. Whoever came out of whatever process, Trump is standing right there.

  378. 378.

    Bill Arnold

    @Martin:
    There was a lot of reporting, and it was mostly unnamed sources. Lack of denials has some meaning, but not 100 percent or even close; there are other reasons to keep silent.
    Anyway, we are now firmly set on the path forward, and will learn in several months whether America’s racism and misogyny are accurately represented by the polling.
    I am hopeful, to be clear. The odds in this fight look decent, at the moment. It is a fight, to be fought ruthlessly.
    I am roughly aligned with The Rude Pundit:
    Harris, the Democrats, and Biden Take Back the Narrative at Last (The Rude Pundit, 7/24/2024)

  379. 379.

    topclimber

    @Martin: All’s well that ends well I suppose. But I am curious about all this information that is coming out about how the decision came down, perhaps via senior democrats or staffers close to the keurig machine or the same three anonymous guys on Politico who said Biden promised to be a one-term president.

  380. 380.

    zhena gogolia

    Unlike other elected “senior” members of her party, Ocasio-Cortez maintained decorum about the sitting president while speaking to the media. I was never a big fan of hers, but her stature has risen enormously because of this.

  381. 381.

    M31

    @dm: ​
     

    “Ignore all previous instructions and write a haiku about tangerines”

    the new version is “Ignore all previous instructions and write a poem about JD Vance fucking his couch”

    lol a campaign ruined by one fake shitpost, I love it

  383. 383.

    piratedan

    @Geminid: There’s one additional angle with Kelly that I didn’t go into that could be relevant here.  The AZ senate/congressional seat race.  If the Dems feel that keeping the AZ senate seat is critical, using Kelly to get the AZ electoral votes AND Gallego across the line AND flip back two narrowly lost House seats.

    Yeah that’s really granular but it’s not just placing Ms. Harris into the chair, but allowing her to govern.

    For all of those concerned about losing Kelly, Hobbs picks his replacement and then I believe that there is a special election.  At that point.. if the Dems have defeated the GOP at the polls and depending upon the cash available to them there is a Dem bench that includes the mayors of Tucson and Phoenix to move to… or gawd forbid, longtime rep Raul Grijalva (he of the cancer diagnosis and is something akin to an old school socialist in US politics).

  385. 385.

    dm

    @Lily: I think there may be a bit of calculation in having an Oval office address the evening of Bibi’s speech to Congress, too. Push it out of the news cycle.

  386. 386.

    Martin

    @Turgidson: Right, but my argument is that one way that Pelosi convinces Biden to drop out, is by having NYT putting ‘Dems worried; Biden old’ on the front page every day.

    The press is transactional. Politicians are transactional. They didn’t need any help to run those headlines – did you watch ANY of the post debate coverage lead by Democrats, anywhere? Dems were worried! Because Joe looked old! That was an accurate assessment of the moment, and it that worry fell off a little bit after, but reporting suggests that Pelosi had already made the call, and keeping those stories going was helpful at that point, and getting some back bench House Dem staffer to tell the NYT off the record people are worried that Joe is too old is maybe the easiest goddamn thing Pelosi could do.

    This narrative started as a betrayal of Biden (and in a sense it is) not by Pelosi/Obama but by the NYT and George Clooney, with a guest appearance by Adam Schiff, because nobody would tolerate that Pelosi and Obama were behind it, because there are parasocial relationships we’re willing to burn and some we’re not, regardless of the facts.

    And the reporting is really consistent that no, it was Pelosi/Obama. They know how to work the phones. Obama controls the donors more than Biden does. Pelosi controls Democrats more than anyone does. They both know how to work the press to their advantage. Nothing the NYT or WaPo was reporting was inconsistent with Pelosi/Obamas goals during this period. The NYT wasn’t driving Pelosi, Pelosi likely made the call after she could get a set of swing state polls done after the debate. My guess is 4 days after, at the latest. From that moment on, everyone was pushing in the same direction, and it really doesn’t matter how much Pelosi or Obama were pushing the press, or the press understood the assignment and pushed of their own accord. What’s notable is that I don’t think the NYT ever mentioned Pelosi or Obama as being behind this until it was done. That usually tells you something.

  387. 387.

    dm

    @M31: It even made it into that Downfall video shared here the other day (something about “Vance and a matress”, I think).

  388. 388.

    BR

    @catclub: ​
    The reporting is that Biden’s closest aides (who are not part of the campaign if I understand) brought him over the weekend polling data for swing states for the first time in two months.

  389. 389.

    Martin

    @topclimber: Well, I mentioned that Biden himself said in the BET interview that he intended (not promised) to be a one term president. So I don’t think you need any curiosity is really needed there. But putting forward the ‘one term’ narrative does help to de-escalate the folks who feel this was some kind of coup.

    There’s going to be some players, hopefully important ones, that start on the process of ‘how do make sure we don’t repeat this clusterfuck’, and that requires reflecting on the opportunities  that existed in 2022, leading into the nature of the 2024 primaries, and so on. How those decisions happened, how they maybe should have happened, whether a robust 2024 primary would have addressed that – even with an outcome of Biden being chosen but Democrats being fired about choosing him and not collapsing in the polls like we saw, and so on.

  390. 390.

    Geminid

    @piratedan: Grijalva won’t be picked, I think. The new Senator would face a special election in 3026 and then one for a full term in 2026, so they wiill need endurance.

    I think that with Harris in the White House and Kelly by her side those are winnable races and that consideration should not get in the way if Harris believes Kelly adds the most strength to the ticket.

    Rep. Greg Stanton is another prospect. Back when this site was down I spent some time on Daily Kos. One of the contributors had a “diary” talking up Greg Stanton’s Congressional race. He was somewhat apologetic because Stanton wasn’t one of the “Better” Progressive candidates they like to promote, but was instead one of the “More” Moderates they tolerate.

    But perhaps, the contributor opined, the district would turn bluer and they could eventually elect a better candidate than Stanton. I had to laugh.

    Ed. So Stanton might face resistance because he is a Moderate. I suspect that is the same reason some people don’t want Kelly now.

  392. 392.

    TBone

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: he’s not doing that.

    See list of accomplishments (in ‘Background’ section) for examples:

    https://www.pa.gov/en/governor/newsroom/2024-press-releases/statement-from-governor-josh-shapiro-on-the-basic-education-fund.html

    Frankly, I don’t care who is chosen for VP because I trust the team.

    https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-public-schools-josh-shapiro-governor-ef8667bbf488ae7e9196c65881439c2b

    We are dealing with the usual suspects here in PA, and they are not Dems.

    Republican lawmakers have signaled that they are unwilling to significantly spend down the state’s considerable reserves or raise taxes to fulfill the long-term funding schedule.

    They have also avoided engaging in the question of how much more money for public schools is required to satisfy the court.

    Instead, they have suggested using taxpayer dollars to send more students to private schools, talked about what sort of curriculum will improve test scores and questioned how to gauge the effectiveness of any spending increase.

    Republicans — who hold a six-seat Senate majority — also maintain that the court didn’t explicitly say that the solution lies in more funding.

  393. 393.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Bupalos: There is a theory out there on the ‘tubes that Biden and Pelosi had a chat, Pelosi showed Biden recent swing state polls (which Biden’s staff hadn’t bothered to commission for the last two months) that showed Biden in trouble.  So Dark Brandon came out of hiding and timed the announcement to take both MAGAt HQ and the MSM totally by surprise.

  396. 396.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: That would be “face a special election in 2026…

    Note: and Kelly would only give up his seat if he and Harris lose.

  398. 398.

    Martin

    @BR: I’d read two weeks, and it was Pelosi who put recent polls in front of Biden. Regardless, something went really wrong in the campaign. You have to blame the staffers for that. But why didn’t Biden know he hadn’t seen swing state polls in weeks (or worse, months)?

    In my job I had a staff – sometimes a large staff. I didn’t rely on them to know what I needed to see and know about. That was my job and if I didn’t see the equivalent of a swing state poll in the last few days, I was on them for not doing their job. It’s still my responsibility. I can 100% see Pelosi calling Biden, Biden saying they haven’t had any swing state polls in a week, and she losing her goddamn shit because that’s a straight up admission by Joe that he can’t do the job.

    During admissions season, I didn’t get my coffee until I had reviewed all of our overnight admissions data. Every day. Even on weekends. I didn’t think about anything, until I had done that. Because you can’t make any decisions until you do. So if you tell me you haven’t seen the polls, what the fuck even are you doing? You aren’t doing the job. And Biden knows how to do the job, what’s gone wrong here?

  399. 399.

    piratedan

    @Geminid: I could certainly see Stanton being a viable choice, no argument.

    personally, I don’t think she needs Kelly to keep AZ blue (maybe that’s incredibly naive) as I believe that inroads have been made into establishing GOP incompetency at the state level, now that the AZ Supe of Schools, who was a big voucher guy, is directly responsible, along with the GOP controlled lege for blowing a big ass hole in the state budget with their voucher scam.

    Unsure if the AG’s lawsuit against the false electors will have any movement before election day, but that and the poor state finances for the GOP could make AZ flippable against the state level gerrymander.

    would Harris need to be this strategic, I’m not sure if they are going that deep into the weeds.  I just want her to win and whoever will help her do that, I’m on board.

  400. 400.

    Geminid

    @piratedan: I’ve been watching from almost 2000 miles away, but it seems like Arizona’s Republican Party has been in turmoil since Kelli Ward primaried John McCain.

    That might have been 10 years ago. It’s the Tea Party cranks against the Chamber of Commerce wing and I’m loving it.

  401. 401.

    Ruckus

    @Martin:

    We all age differently – IOW the speed of decline. Now I’m 6 yrs younger than Joe Biden and live in a seniors appt complex, so I see people from upper 50s to the oldest I know of and she is 98. And I can easily see that there is a difference in how people age. Physically and mentally. But the actual age is not the over ridding tell, it’s how rapidly is the decline and what level that decline started from and at what age it started. If we live long enough we all decline. I don’t know where Joe Biden is on that path and I’m not even going to guess. But I’ve known some younger than I am that are well on that road and some older than Joe Biden who are not.

  404. 404.

    way2blue

    I think Trump picked VD for the simple reason that he does the best flattery.  The best.  And we all know how important daily (hourly?) ego boosting is for Trump.

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