Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

It’s a new day. Light all those Biden polls of young people on fire and throw away the ashes.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Fight them, without becoming them!

In my day, never was longer.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Programming Note

Programming Note

by | 269 Comments

This post is in: 

I’m going to be traveling for a couple of weeks, so posting from me will be scarce.

Overall, I think Democrats are in a much better place than they were a few weeks ago.  I’m especially seeing this in the normies around me.  A lot of the more politically engaged in my family and friend group were reluctant to replace Biden.  But the less politically engaged were absolutely not excited about the election.  They were going to vote, but they would be voting against Trump.

That’s changed, markedly.  My wife, for example, saw Kamala on TV last night and excitedly asked “has she picked her VP?” She normally doesn’t give a shit about stuff like that. This davenport intercourse thing has other family members laughing.  People are excited, and they’re happy that Trump et. al. are showing their asses while the press is finally paying a little attention.

Harris’ press operation is absolutely lighting Trump up and you love to see it.

Finally, JD has such a “incel who finally got laid” vibe. His fixation on people having children is creepy, and his comments about women who don’t are straight out of the 1950’s tradwife playbook. And every day he writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”:

Edit: And here’s today’s installment. Someone who wants to out themselves as still having a NYT subscription might want to provide a gift link in the comments, but I think we can all guess what he said to his trans classmate.
Programming Note

Here’s the Daily Mail (hey, no paywall) summary of what his classmate leaked. Basically, it’s JD saying how much he hates Trump, etc, More evidence he’s an opportunistic chameleon.

Reader Interactions

269Comments

  9. 9.

    brantl

    So, none of the trans stuff is linked, what did the couch cowboy say to the trans college classmate?

  10. 10.

    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?

    Kinda wonder what the media thinks they’re going to fill the 24/7 news cycle with if in four years Trump will fix it so nobody has to vote anymore. Seems like no more elections means no more election coverage which means nothing for the 24/7 news cycle to cover. Seems like that would crater their bottom line but I’m not an expert in these matters.

    I know the default attitude is Trump just talks shit and you can’t take any of it seriously but this does seem to be a consistent theme from him so maybe they could point out that he seems pretty serious about it.

  12. 12.

    Ken

    @m.j.:  J.D. Vance is a very happy, level-headed, and well adjusted individual.

    I can totally see the campaign releasing statements from (unnamed) psychiatrists saying this, with much the same effect as the repeated assurances that Trump is passing all the cognitive-decline tests he’s taking.

  15. 15.

    Kay

    His base will love the cruelty and owning the libs but obviously he needs more than his base.

  16. 16.

    cmorenc

    I would actually give the prize for “worst VP pick ever to one of our greatest presidents ever – Abraham Lincoln selecting Andrew Johnson in 1864 for balance of a southerner who might help with post- war reconciliation.  But Vance is second by a close margin.

  18. 18.

    Ken

    @What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: It would be like in Russia, with the state-controlled newsreaders intoning the reports of how Leader Trump’s approval is again over 100%.

    There might even be enough newsreader jobs for all the current on-air personalities, though there will be some attrition at the lower levels that do “reporting” instead of stenography. And of course, your Murdochs and Sulzbergers will be superfluous to requirements.

  19. 19.

    coin operated

    mrs coin was a normie…a Democrat but still a normie.  Dobbs shifted that considerably. She knows who Cannon is and how she f’d up the documents case.  She liked Joe and thought he got a raw deal from the press. As of this morning, she’s following Kamala on Twitter and loving the full-court press coming from her campaign.

    If mrs coin is any example, I think the normies are definitely paying attention this time.

  20. 20.

    WaterGirl

    Mistermix, I had my post scheduled for 10, but when it went up I saw that you had posted.  For anyone who noticed it was there before it was gone, you will see it later.

    New rotating tag:

    Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

    That turn of phrase will make he happy every time I see it!

  23. 23.

    rikyrah

    This clip needs to go viral.it’s so on point👏🏾👏🏾

     

    Hope 🦬💙❤️ (@HopeisaBison) posted at 0:01 AM on Sat, Jul 27, 2024:
    As a Howard grad, I knew about our alum #KamalaHarris. I remember at one alumni club meeting talking about how her star was on the rise.

    I also used to watch State of the Black Union every year on C-SPAN, and I became a fan forever when I saw this in 2006: https://t.co/MSeuhAriN0
    (https://x.com/HopeisaBison/status/1817062663131718038?s=02)

  25. 25.

    artem1s

    Vance is doing exactly what TCFG did in 2016 and continues to do up to today. Go after women who don’t measure up to a 10 and attack journalist who don’t please him. Maybe some of the female journalist have started to pick up that they won’t be in any protected class in the Project 2025 world. Remember Megan Kelly had ‘blood coming out of her wherever?” But a lot of them haven’t and won’t.
    Before this past week I would have bet the Vance was the most likely to be able to make the transition from opponent to mini-TCFG in waiting. If you think about it all his weirdness ticks all the right boxes. I was really worried about him appealing to all the MAGAt forever voters (the way he did in Ohio) and keeping them in the fold despite TCFG disavowing Dodd and P25. He was the logical choice given TCFG is unlikely to be able to assume the office if were to win. Burnam would never be able to keep the cray-cray at bay should TCFG end up in prison or take a dirt nap before November.
    Maybe TCFG can umbrella Vance until the press decides to ‘unsee’ his weirdness the same way they have decided to unsee every norm broken by his boss. But right now TCFG is rethinking his choice so piling on is definitely going to keep Vance in the ‘loser’ category in his eyes. If it keeps up long enough he’ll start to voice his concerns at the rallies and on social media. Given that Vance was Donald Jr’s (what if he’s a loser) recommendation will only fuel that fire. Here’s hoping Donnie dumbass decides to “Your Fired” the only decent strategic staffing choice he’s made in the past 7 years.

  26. 26.

    Steve LaBonne

    For how many years have we been longing for Democrats who FIGHT? I love the way the Harris campaign is going right for the jugular. Much more of this, please.

  30. 30.

    Other MJS

    Heather Cox Richardson this morning:

    Tonight, speaking to Christians at the Turning Point Action Believers’ Summit in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump made his plans to become a strongman clear: “Get out and vote. Just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what: it’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians…. Get out, you’ve got to get out and vote. In four years, you don’t have to vote again, we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.”

  31. 31.

    Spanky

    @cmorenc:  @NotMax:

    You guys are comparing actual VPs with someone who will never be a Vice President. What about all the other failed candidates, huh? No one ever hears about them. JD’s going to join them in the dustbin of history.

  32. 32.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    I love how the word “weird” has entered the conversation when discussing the presidential ticket and Republicans in general. I don’t think it’s going away. It’s going to piss off the weirdos, but a lot of other people are going to think about clips of TFG and Vance, as well as their MAGA relatives and acquaintances, and think, “you know, they really are weird.”

  33. 33.

    rk

    Now I’m worried that Vance will be dropped and then we’ll have someone more palatable.

  35. 35.

    Steve LaBonne

    @rk: Won’t help them. Dropping Vance would be a confession that the campaign is in total disarray and would hurt them at least as much as his misadventures.

  37. 37.

    M31

    @rk: and for the GOP, ‘more palatable’ means a helmet-headed grayhair who is boring and dumb as a stump yet votes like a troglodyte

    all the others are couchfucking creeps or worse

  40. 40.

    Viva BrisVegas

    When do we get to see Trump’s long form medical certificate from a reputable doctor (not Dr Feelgood) telling us exactly what his injuries were?

    How do we know that the shooter missed? After all the bullet could have gone straight through one earhole and out the other and we’d not be able to tell.

  42. 42.

    TS

    @Other MJS:

    That sends too many shivers through my body – as its still a possibility he could win. Not a mention that I can find in the MSM.

  43. 43.

    karen gail

    There are times when I doubt the sanity and intelligence of so many; then they open their mouths and remove all doubt.

    This is a side note; when I was child/teen the schools did intelligence tests, my father questioned my results and was told “in reassurance” that no female could ever score above 125. It didn’t matter how high a female scored her top end at that time could be listed as no higher than 125. Not only that there were certain areas where females were allowed in classes; I walked into my first day of Physics and was told that females were not capable of understanding physics and refused to allow any female in any senior or junior class of physics, chemistry or math. He would have banned females from a number of senior classes but since he was new he couldn’t keep us out of history, civics or English. Since I went to high school in college town his attempts to limit females to education over 8th grade failed and he was fired after telling the wrong girl that the only thing females were good for was breeding.

  44. 44.

    rk

    @M31:

    Can you get worse than Vance? I’m thinking what if it’s Nikki Haley. I just hope not. Maybe it’s trauma because I can’t accept that things are going well and suddenly they won’t turn bad.

  47. 47.

    artem1s

    @rk: ​ We want TCFG to drop Vance or at least do his best. Right now he’s rethinking his choice. He doesn’t want to be connected to his own VP choice. We want him to disavow all knowledge (I never knew him, he brought be coffee sometimes) ASAP. Want we want to avoid is that TCFG gets back into convention mode. The last thing we want to see right now is a fatherly Donnie draping his arm around Vance at some rally and bragging on how he taught him everything about debating old Joe Biden. How his ‘perfect’ VP pick is going to make him proud and wipe the floor at the Veep debate. If TCFG extends his safety net to Vance the press will bury and ignore Vance’s negatives. The best possible out come is TCFG creates another 2-3 weeks or more of chaos by demanding the GOP find a way for him to dump Vance so he can pick some milquetoast like Burnam. If he burns 30-40 more days obsessing over Vance and not rallying the MAGAts behind the whole ticket it will be over by the time people start filling out mail-in ballots. I’m praying his ego makes him demand that he get to ‘break the rules’ the same way Sleepy Joe Biden did.​

  48. 48.

    Anoniminous

    @rk:

    They can’t drop him.  He has to resign.

    ETA: “Rule 9 grants the Republican National Committee the authority to find a replacement nominee in the event that its presidential or vice presidential nominee dies or drops out of the race in between the national convention and the general election. It says that if a Republican candidate for president or vice president leaves the race due to “death, declination, or otherwise” after the national convention”

  50. 50.

    oldster

    Sofia Nelson is a hero for giving more evidence of JD’s hypocrisy.
    I look forward to forcing Vance to explain why he said “I hate the cops” — that will not make him popular in Trumpland.
    I do have one disagreement, though, with the press reporting that their friendship ended when Vance betrayed trans people. What I have heard is that Ms. Nelson got nervous when Vance kept calling her “Sofa”.

  53. 53.

    NotMax

    @rk

    Now that a Haley PAC has come out and publicly endorsed Harris you can forget any possibility of Haley being considered.

  54. 54.

    MattF

    Vance was, once upon a time, a rather sympathetic person. But he’s made a complete U-turn, specifically denying and reversing all his old opinions. This is not just a shift in his attitudes— it’s a metamorphosis, in this case from butterfly into worm.

  55. 55.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @oldster: I look forward to forcing Vance to explain why he said “I hate the cops” — that will not make him popular in Trumpland.

    I am not so sure about that. The denizens of trumplandia were cheering the Jan 6 rioters when they were beating up the cops.

  56. 56.

    WereBear

    Any move Trump makes now will be admitting a mistake.

    It has essentially paralyzed him.

    Trump does attack women in all kinds of ways. Many predators use that as a coping mechanism. So expect things to get even more unhinged.

    I’m glad we have someone with predator experience.

  59. 59.

    Anoniminous

    Has anyone else observed the Couch Thing is a direct result of Musk removing Fact Checkers from Xitter?

  64. 64.

    Anoniminous

    @MattF:

    Or his real attitudes and self emerged.  Don’t turn into a woman hating little shit virtually overnight without having some of that crap inside from the git-go.

  65. 65.

    SatanicPanic

    My wife has been basically tuning out this entire election up until a week ago. Since last year she was convinced Biden would lose and didn’t want the stress of watching it go down. This week we were watching clips of Harris and she was like “I have goosebumps “. She’s finally saying we might have a chance to win.

  66. 66.

    Mel

    @Anoniminous: This is so, but what would be great is to have Trump try to dump Vance, so that he is at war with Repubs, whilst also at war with Vance (who won’t resign from being the VP nom b/c he’s hoping to be Pres. if Trump expires), and then to have the whole ugly, chaotic, insult-hurling power struggle right out there in the open, in the public eye.
    The MSM loves Trump, but they love a clickbait drama-trauma catfight even more, so they would cover it.

  67. 67.

    Steve LaBonne

    @Anoniminous: Anyone know how long ago he converted to Opus Dei Catholicism? That could have been the catalyst for his ugliness coming out.

  68. 68.

    Layer8Problem

    @Steve LaBonne:  Well, Vance being the selfless guy that he is, he can take one for the team and do the right thing. He just needs a good excuse.  He’s not too young to have a prostate problem, is he?  It worked in Veep.

  70. 70.

    Steve LaBonne

    @Layer8Problem: He’s not going to go voluntarily. He sees a clear path to the presidency right in front of him via Trump not lasting 4 years. He’s a very ambitious little creepy toad.

  72. 72.

    Anoniminous

    @WereBear: ​
     
    Don’t over think it. Friend who did her Ph.d. on rape back in the 70s interviewed a man who had raped over 650 women right before the LAPD released him. (So much for “Serve and Protect”) When asked why he raped women he responded, “I like rape.” By all evidence Trump likes to humiliate and assault women.

  75. 75.

    3Sice

    In drumpfland, the resignation follows the 3 am “you’re fired” social media post.

  78. 78.

    randy khan

    @WereBear:

    The best thing about that his comments on the cat lady thing is that, in support of his claim that he likes cats, he said that he has a dog.  (Not apologizing about saying childless people are miserable was not so good, but entirely expected.)

  79. 79.

    TBone

    @NotMax: thanks for sharing, will listen while making watermelon BBQ sauce with the Amish-fresh yellow-fleshed watermelon I just got.  The lady farmer came out to greet us today (“I got a late start, was picking everything!”) so I was able to profusely thank her for all of her hard work.  When I told her she grows the best cantaloupe I’ve ever eaten, I got the backstory about her childhood eating this type and her successful search for the heirloom seeds.

    Also on the menu today is my roasted local (same farm) peppers and onions (with EVOO) relish for serving on Philly-style grilled sausage sandwiches.

    Breakfast is a white bread tomato sandwich with Hellman’s, salt, and pepper.

    Thanks for all your shares!

  80. 80.

    sab

    @karen gail: I wasn’t allowed to take shop classes but there were boys in home ec because they could grow up to be chefs.

    The boys in our home ec class were there for the girls.

  81. 81.

    Kay

    @SatanicPanic:

    She’s not alone, as I’m sure you’ve picked up. I think this exceeded everyones expectations, including people who supported it passionately. I think they were looking for a polling collapse in the white non college vote as a possible effect and when that didn’t happen there was just…jubilation is the only word for it. Obviously no one knows how this will play out but the immediate “worst case” did not occur.

    We could still lose white non college voters (in tersm of comaprison with Biden 2020 – our minority share of white voters could still go down) and we probably will lose some but it isn’t going to be a collapse and so far an increase in non white voters is erasing it.

  82. 82.

    gene108

    But the less politically engaged were absolutely not excited about the election. They were going to vote, but they would be voting against Trump.

    My experience as well, even before the debate.

    That’s changed, markedly.

    My experience as well.

    Even people who don’t know much about Kamala or were never big fans of her are excited how the dynamics of the race have changed, because we do not need to worry about our candidates age.

  83. 83.

    oldster

    @MattF:

    Oy, tell me about it. Anyone who has or ever had. Unlike with your appendix, the problems don’t go away when the organ does.

  84. 84.

    Anoniminous

    @Mel:

    That would be great.  Not going to happen, IMO. State filing deadlines are looming.  Kansas has already ballot certified the Trump/Vance ticket.  Trump has run out of time.

  86. 86.

    cmorenc

    @NotMax: actually, Aaron Burr was pretty good until he wasn’t when he realized he was never going to successfully win the 1st prize presidential spot,  and jealous ambition took him over to the dark side.

  90. 90.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Other MJS: Get out, you’ve got to get out and vote. In four years, you don’t have to vote again, we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.”

    This isn’t the slam dunk everyone here thinks, Trump as always is being vague.  We  read it as “dictator”, someone else might read it as “everyone will wub the GOP it will be majority forever”, some be forgiven for reading it as “There won’t be a US anymore after Trump starts the War on Sharks, and loses it badly”

  94. 94.

    Kay

    The focus groups are so funny – young white guy: “I agree more with with her policies and she’s not a felon”

    Not a felon. Good catch, normie.

  95. 95.

    Tony G

    An unoriginal observation on my part … but the comedy team of Trump and Vance consists of two types of male assholes that I’ve known all my life:  Trump is the obnoxious jerk in the bar or in the football locker room who just won’t STFU about his big, swinging dick.  Vance, on the other hand, is just creepy.  He had some kind of psychological damage early in life that he now responds to by harming others.  Which one of the two is the worst asshole?  Views differ.

  96. 96.

    rikyrah

    The entire segment is fire 🔥

    Simone’s facial expressions while Tara is going off are hilarious 🤣

     

    Christopher Webb (@cwebbonline) posted at 9:26 AM on Sat, Jul 27, 2024:

     

    You need to see this, but don’t yell out “HELL YEAH!” and wake your sleeping wife like I did.

     

    “There are women in this country who are sick and tired of mediocre men like Donald Trump failing up because of their daddy’s money. And then they’re going to come on here and talk about women? Enough! That goes across racial lines.

     

    Let Trump and MAGA keep this up. Women are looking at this and saying, ‘Enough is enough is enough’. We’re going to save democracy. I’m telling you right now. Keep it up, MAGA.”

    @TaraSetmayer

     

    https://t.co/gRL5qEzheR

    (https://x.com/cwebbonline/status/1817204807838666948?t=57NsllW3YzhwXZ8d2od8OA&s=03)

  97. 97.

    Mel

    @Anoniminous: I agree, Vance is on the ticket. But I don’t think that Trump will be able to resist pitching some sort of media hissy fit if the public pile-on against Vance continues / intensifies. Trump’s ego is so fragile that the embarrassment of having Vance publicly mocked will feel to Trump like a threat to his image. When his narcissistic, wafer-thin bravado is poked, he reacts.
    And any visible fracturing, drama-trauma, etc. in their ranks is good,  Repubs in disarray!!

  99. 99.

    Anoniminous

    @Kay:

    After 40 years it’s time Democrats realize campaigning to non-college white voters is a waste of time, money, effort.  More important would be to increase non-white vote:

    “70.9 percent of white voters cast ballots compared with only 58.4 percent of nonwhite voters …  62.6 percent of Black American voters, 53.7 percent of Latino American voters, and 59.7 percent of Asian American voters cast ballots in 2020.”  — Brennan Center for Justice

    I’m not stupid enough to think all non-white voters will put the D lever. I do think enough of them would IF Dems put the effort into getting them in the booth. Republicans know this. That’s why they are purging voter lists and restricting access to voting.

  101. 101.

    cmorenc

    @Spanky: The relevant distinction wrt Andrew Johnson is that Johnson was Lincoln’s own  selection to be the VP nominee to run with Lincoln, just as Vance is Trump’s pick as VP nominee.  Lincoln’s reasoning for picking him didn’t actually go bad until he was assassinated and Jounson actually became President, but the reasoning was based on thinking Johnson would never actually be President.  It was a gesture to the southerners in anticipation of their inevitable defeat.

  102. 102.

    SatanicPanic

    @Kay: yeah I don’t think it’s in the bag, but people are excited. It feels like 08. We have a real chance to make this something even the normies are swept up in.

    I’ve seen it mentioned here and there (I think by Digby), but Biden’s big failing for a lot of voters is promising to lower the temperature. After almost four years the temperature is not down, and it won’t be because Trump isn’t behind bars. Blaming Biden is probably unfair, but voters were probably thinking the problem would just continue for another four years under another Biden term.

    With Harris taking over I think people can start to really imagine an end to Trumps public life. Because I think we can say if Trump loses to Harris, he’s done. She’s fun and silly at times, but she is not playing when it comes to Trumps crimes. And symbolically it would be a total rejection of MAGA.

  103. 103.

    oldster

    @Tony G:

    There’s the violent abuser and there’s the one who is too timid, but likes to watch.
    Both horrible in their own ways. Both demonstrably the victims of childhood abuse. But not eligible for any sympathy on that account, not when they have turned into monsters themselves.

  104. 104.

    karen gail

    I believe that Kamala Harris has allowed us older women to finally have a voice; yes, we fought but while Roe vs Wade came to be we still didn’t have ERA; it is still a proposed amendment. And the GOP is working to turn back calendar to when women had no rights.

    If GOP takes away women’s rights the next thing will be civil rights, if you pay attention they want slaver back.

  105. 105.

    hueyplong

    @cmorenc: I wouldn’t sleep on Ike’s choice of Dick Nixon, though he was pleasingly dismissive of his vp all 8 years and did little to help Nixon against JFK in 1960.

  106. 106.

    Matt McIrvin

    @rikyrah: Trump constantly does this thing that alt-right and similar people do all the time, where they go out of their way to say stuff that a hostile person will immediately interpret as “I will round you all up into camps and drop you out of helicopters” or whatever, but that you can back up and cutely interpret as something more benign, if you squint hard enough.

    It’s kind of like a dogwhistle except that it works in reverse to the classic dogwhistle, in that your opponents are supposed to hear the most horrible interpretation so you can deny it and say they’re crazy. It’s a type of trolling, and is also pretty much the behavior Sartre attributed to antisemites many decades ago.

  107. 107.

    KatKapCC

    FYI folks, you can get around pretty much any paywall by using Archive — just paste the URL in and hit save, and you’ll get the article. (If it’s very new and hasn’t been archived yet, you might have to wait a few minutes while a million lines of code scroll past your eyes and light up in day-glo green.) If there is video, it won’t play, but you can read the whole article. I don’t think I’ve ever had it not work for me.

  109. 109.

    catclub

    @rikyrah: I don’t know what Trump was trying to say with his no more voting line. He is a moronic inarticulate narcissist.

     

    I think there is a history of christian groups not voting (or not voting much) for a long time, up until about the late 70’s. It would spoil their purity.  Trump might be telling this group (in his ham handed way) that they

    can go back to that mode after they elect him.

  112. 112.

    WereBear

    @catclub: They can go back to the non-voting mode NOW.

    Evangelicals withdrew from politics after the Scopes Trial disaster.

    I’m hoping for another humiliating defeat.

  113. 113.

    Kay

    @Anoniminous:

    Respectfully, I think this is the wrong way to think about it. It matters a lot if you can hold down margins in Republican areas of swing states. No one is saying kowtow to them or do outreach that excludes the base, but holding them at 35-40% can be done and is smart. We didn’t lose Ohio because of disgruntled Lefties or a lack of AA turnout. We lost Ohio because we went from 40% in red counties to 25%.

  115. 115.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Omnes Omnibus: There is no reason for us to use the most Trump favorable interpretation of the statement. If it is unclear, it is incumbent on him to fix it.

    EXACTLY

    And that is why I am going with “No US after Trump loses the War on Sharks”.

    We say “Dictator” the Normines brain will instantly go into “Bothsides” shut down mode.

    If someone says “Vance fucked a couch” the Normines go, “har, har, that funny” and then later “You know what, Vance is the kind of creep to do it”

  116. 116.

    JaySinWA

    @Matt McIrvin: Yes. This works because we are largely hardwired to reject or at least suspect outrageous claims.

    Trump makes outrageous claims in muddled language that Trump whisperers try and clean up and make people believe he didn’t really mean that and you have to be crazy to think that is what he meant

    Our minds work to shutdown the most horrific interpretations as part of a defense mechanism. Like after a bad accident.

  117. 117.

    catclub

    @WereBear: They can go back to the non-voting mode NOW.

     

    But can you find a way for a presidential candidate to say that without it being twisted by the MSM and their opponent?

  118. 118.

    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?

    @Ken:

     

    @Jeffg166: I realize that would be the media environment but seems like it would draw pretty shitty ratings so, like, is that what they want? A miniscule audience?

    WaPo did cover the statement though in a pretty non judgemental way. They made it the sub headline of the article, which seems like an odd decision but it’s something. The headline was Trump attacks Harris by saying she’s a bum and bitches about Biden stepping down, which talk about lame. He’s still flailing so far.

  119. 119.

    WereBear

    @catclub: Oh, we’d never say that. I was expressing a personal preference :)

    But this lasted until the Seventies, when the Right Wing started taking over the Republican Party. Perlstein has several great books.

  120. 120.

    JaySinWA

    @catclub: Trump already did the “We don’t need votes” spiel a few days ago. The new Christians won’t have to vote after this one is kind of a walkback.

  122. 122.

    rivers

    @rikyrah: I too looked for a mention of his remarks about elections in the story the NYT ran this morning about his rally – no mention at all although they reported on his other remarks (it was the subhead of the WashPo story.) But lo and behold suddenly there’s a front page story in the digital edition. I wonder if the fact that so many other media sources and/or tweeters were highlighting it caused the change.I believe It is in fact possible to occasionally shame the NYT into shifting their coverage a little bit.

  123. 123.

    catclub

    I was appalled by the point Vance made in 2015/2016 in conversation with the trans person: “Trump does best on the economy”
    This is so hard for me to even believe, and yet there are people now who say the economy right now is the worst ever, in complete contradiction of the facts.

  124. 124.

    JaySinWA

    @What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:

    Kinda wonder what the media thinks they’re going to fill the 24/7 news cycle with if in four years Trump will fix it so nobody has to vote anymore. Seems like no more elections means no more election coverage which means nothing for the 24/7 news cycle to cover. Seems like that would crater their bottom line but I’m not an expert in these matters.

    I don’t think “you won’t have to vote anymore” = “no elections”. Just that elections will be meaningless. There will still be the inside scoop from the new Kremlinologists about who’s up and who is down in the party.

    Stenography with gossip will continue.

  125. 125.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @JaySinWA: I don’t think “you won’t have to vote anymore” = “no elections”. Just that elections will be meaningless

    Well, that’s reassuring.

  129. 129.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    @Omnes Omnibus: who knows what anything Trump says means? He doesn’t know himself. He says things for the effect on his immediate audience. He is pretty good at reading the room.

    I’m not denying that somewhere in the dark recesses of his mind he may be imagining himself President for Life. Just that he doesn’t plan that far ahead. Of course, some of the people around him do.

  130. 130.

    BR

    I’m glad the Harris campaign didn’t take the bait about the “no elections” stuff — they folded it into their “Trump’s strange speech” broadside last night, but kept it in the “strange” framing, which is right. Trump wants to elicit fear and Harris is showing she’s not scared of him. That’s right.

  131. 131.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @Quinerly:

    Thanks for bringing back the term “davenport.” Made me laugh.

    Davenports are OK, but nothing smokes like a Chesterfield…according to JD.

  132. 132.

    JaySinWA

    @Jeffro: I may have to listen to that, but it probably won’t make a dent. To many he’s supposed to be Cyrus.

    Many evangelical speakers and media outlets compare Trump to Cyrus, a historical Persian king who, in the sixth century BCE, conquered Babylon and ended the Babylonian captivity, a period during which Israelites had been forcibly resettled in exile. This allowed Jews to return to the area now known as Israel and build a temple in Jerusalem. Cyrus is referenced most prominently in the Old Testament book of Isaiah, in which he appears as a figure of deliverance.

    https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/3/5/16796892/trump-cyrus-christian-right-bible-cbn-evangelical-propaganda

  133. 133.

    FDRLincoln

    One thing that reduces stress: every time Biden was going to give a speech or interview, I was terrified he would misspeak or use the wrong word or something that would feed into the “too old” media narrative.

    I don’t have that fear with Harris. When she has an event, I’m excited!

    The change in morale is palpable. And that impacts the normies around us.

  135. 135.

    Richard Fox

    @JaySinWA: Without doubt that has to be one of the silliest notions I’ve heard, and I’ve heard a few. The orange creature with the teased hair is now a latter day Cyrus. Good lord.  Just one thought pops into my mind: We’re NOT going back. !!!!!

  138. 138.

    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?

    @JaySinWA: Again, if nothing is really at stake is anybody watching? I still think it tanks their ratings a lot, which affects revenue a lot, which can’t be good for any of them.

  140. 140.

    piratedan

    @rikyrah: to be fair, I think that this is my biggest fear at the moment ensuring the sanctity of the ability to vote and have it be counted accurately.

    I fully believe that we have the GOP beat on the issues and that a significant majority of the nation are behind Dem policies and candidates.  The GOP ground game isn’t exactly daunting due to the legal needs of their candidate, so dark money ads are showing up handled by PACs friendly to the GOP that are not paying his legal bills.

    The bravado that is shown by DJT makes me wonder what the fuck else they have up their collective sleeves…

    blocking/refusing voters at the polls

    purging Dems off of the voter rolls

    getting judges to support spurious challenges to election results…

    finding a mechanism to file every fucking lawsuit with the 5th circuit in Lubbock.

    I’m hopeful that the Dems see this shit coming and are ready to counter it, still its something back in my mind when I see the GOP continue to act as brazenly as they do.

  142. 142.

    Ella in New Mexico

    @JaySinWA: Call me cynical but isn’t the reason Evangelist Christians “adore” the Jews is because without them holding the Holy Land for Armageddon and Christians don’t get to rule the world?

    The dispiriting truth about why many evangelical Christians support Israel

    But evangelicals’ support isn’t simply driven by a theology that compels them to love the Holy Land, detached from its convulsive domestic and global political implications. For many “Christians Zionists,” and particularly for popular evangelists with significant clout within the Republican Party, their support for Israel is rooted in its role in the supposed end times: Jesus’ return to Earth, a bloody final battle at Armageddon, and Jesus ruling the world from the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. In this scenario, war is not something to be avoided, but something inevitable, desired by God, and celebratory.
    What happens to the Jews and Palestinians is, to put it very mildly, collateral damage. Christian Zionists are anticipating, and hoping for a war to end all wars, and a resulting Christian world that they claim will vanquish evil and bring peace. Only those who accept Jesus as their savior will benefit from these events that Christian Zionists claim the Bible predicts will happen. Nonbelievers — including Jews and Muslims — will not survive them.

    All that effusive praise for the Jews Old Testament scripture quoting is because they’re necessary cannon fodder and are going to have to convert and submit to their Christian Overlords or die someday.

  143. 143.

    Tony G

    @oldster: Yes, good analysis.  I was never bullied as a kid myself (too big) but I observed the usual bullies and their fan-boys.  Equally despicable.

  144. 144.

    Martin

    @Anoniminous: It’s not a waste of time, but you have to look at return on effort.

    If I can go back to my college admissions analogy. When we were modeling out how to get an entering class of a given size and makeup (usually about 100 enrollments targets to hit simultaneously) the most important model is the yield model – if I admit this student, what’s the probability they’ll accept the offer? Which shows up in the model as a cohort probability – how many students with these characteristics do I need to admit to have x number show up and pay fees. In that effort you have a set of choices:

    1. You increase or decrease the number in that cohort you admit to increase or decrease the number who will show up and pay fees
    2. You can increase or decrease the targets on that cohort because they are too easy/hard to hit and balance them against a different cohort.
    3. You can take proactive action to change the rate that they will accept the offer – target them with calls, visits to campus, scholarship money, participation in special programs, etc.

    There were lots of times 3 wasn’t really even possible. Black applicants, most notably. Academically strong black students are so heavily competed for that private schools offer them full scholarships. Public universities in CA can’t target scholarships by race, so there wasn’t much we could really do to compete for these students – a full ride to USC is going to be preferable to paying $20K/yr (housing+tuition) to almost all of the UCs. Realistically theres’ nothing we can do to get that student. Admitting more of them achieves nothing, so our ability to hit a target is largely out of our hands. But, latino students aren’t so heavily recruited, and there are benefits to being a Hispanic Serving Institution, so let’s try and make up with more latino students.

    How you balance the above equation mostly comes down to where your opportunities are. Persuading voters is really fucking hard now. It didn’t used to be before the country was so polarized. We have this historical viewpoint that elections are about convincing voters who are predetermined whether or not they will vote, which candidate to vote for. It’s also the story told on TV, because it’s a compelling narrative – Jeb Bartlett goes on the TV debate and makes this rousing case for voting for him that is so compelling he wins the election. (Actually, he dunks on his Republican opponent so badly that he looks like a fool, because this is Aaron Sorkin we’re talking about here and that’s how he writes drama).

    But that’s not how elections generally work. They generally work by Republicans getting the people attracted to their message excited to vote and to vote in higher numbers and Democrats doing the same thing, and whoever gets enough of the disaffected voters that are naturally aligned with them off the sofa wins. The media hate that dynamic about politics because there’s no conflict in it for them to generate headlines and sell ads. So they reinforce the Aaron Sorkin one. In my analogy, you don’t hit your targets by doing 3 – trying to convince the kid with a full ride to USC to pay you tuition instead – that kid is a lost cause – all you can do is congratulate them on getting such a good offer and wishing them the best. You hit your targets by doing 1 and 2. 2 is analogous to changing the electoral map and changing which voters you want to motivate. 1 is analogous to motivating them.

    We don’t think twice about the decision to not dump money into Texas or California and instead put it in Pennsylvania, because who gives a shit if we lose Texas worse than we’ll already lose, or win California more. Well, that holds true for which voters you chase. If older white men are such reliable voters and have strong opinions on Trump, what do you think you’re going to accomplish trying to appeal to them? Their minds are mostly made up, and they’re going to pull the lever in high numbers. Find the voters whose minds aren’t made up, and find the voters that aren’t inclined to pull the lever and get someone knocking on their door. If you can only move older white men by 4 points through a concerted effort, sure, that can win PA, but if you can turn out teenage girls 10 points higher by appealing directly to their interests and reaching out through celebrity endorsers and a social media outreach effort – and that’s just as large a pool of voters, and also equally distributed in the states you are trying to reach, that seems like the better bang for buck, and builds you a bigger margin. If you can do both, do both, but make sure you do the latter more than the former.

    There is this outsized focus on working class white men in these battleground states because that is the distinguishing factor compared to other states, but women are half of voters everywhere, young people are a pretty even share of voters everywhere. They are equally valid targets, and equally valid pathways to winning those states.

    I will say again, young voters turned out 44% in 2016 and we lost. They turned out 55% in 2020 and we won. They weren’t the only demographic to turn out in higher numbers – all did – but they were the group with the biggest differential. They outpaced the turnout growth by the GOP, and that’s what got Biden over the line.

    Black voters went from 59.6% to 63% between those two elections and are a smaller share of the electorate (when you factor in the overlap with young black voters). Latino 47.6 to 54%.

    The complaint about young voters not voting isn’t quite right – they turned out at higher rates than latinos did in 2020 (though there is the largest overlap between the two groups there). The more accurate complaint is that young voter turnout isn’t reliable – they’re all over the map – sometimes decent, sometimes terrible. But that tells me that’s the group where you have the most opportunity – if you can reach them, that’s where you can make the most ground up.

    And the turnout numbers don’t reflect the vote share. Black voter turnout is really important because they vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat. So that 3.5% gain from 2016 to 2020 pretty much only favored one party – ours. Young voters went 2:1 for Biden, so that 11 point increase from ’16-’20 was equivalent to a 7 point increase in black turnout – double what actually happened.

    You can see the effect if you look at the voter turnout for young voters by state. Big turnout in CO, MN, ME, FL, NC, VA, PA, MI. The biggest increases were in the places that Democrats were running big ground operations and competitive senate races. Youth turnout lagged in ND, WY, UT, KY, MS.

    If you had to pick, put your investments into young voters first because they are so unreliable and have to be shored up. And women next because that’s THE issue of this election. They’re the majority of the electorate in every state.

  145. 145.

    Kay

    @Anoniminous:

    And for a majority in Congress. Elissa Slotkin made this point in the white womens call for Harris and I thought it was needed – a “come down to earth” moment. She’s practical and she is not going to win her senate race in MI w/out 35- 40% of WWC in swing or red state counties. Just win.

  148. 148.

    Other MJS

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    This isn’t the slam dunk everyone here thinks, Trump as always is being vague.

    The MSM is so dismissive of “Trump being Trump” that nothing is a slam dunk. Everything he says is masked in plausible deniability (“ooh, the libs are taking him out of context”), even if that’s just his inability to put together a sentence. The thing we need to get into low-info voters, IMO, is the language he keeps putting out: “dictator”, “bloodbath”, “never vote again”, etc.

  149. 149.

    JaySinWA

    @What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:  With palace intrigue there is always something at stake. They will transition from horserace to parsing inscrutable signals. But the news never was a big money maker anyway. That’s why it has devolved into entertainment under its MBA addled moguls.

  150. 150.

    Kay

    @Anoniminous:

    Slotkin uses tons of data in her campaign and I’d like to go back to that. She knows exactly what she needs in each MI county.

    When Obama was running in the grind it out 2012 race they told us in my county – “we need 8000 votes out of your county”. That’s a specific goal organizers can reach. They can’t go on “vibes”. They need a number.

  152. 152.

    Matt McIrvin

    @artem1s: The rightists have been feeling their oats, thinking they’re going to romp to an easy landslide win AND functionally be kings and crush all opposition afterward, and when they feel that way, the weirdo stuff really comes out. The freak flag flies. I think Trump picking Vance was essentially a way of spiking the ball and grinding the liberals’ faces in the dirt at a moment when he thought he already had this won.

  155. 155.

    M31

    @Martin: whoever gets enough of the disaffected voters that are naturally aligned with them off the sofa

    phrasing! lol

    Great analysis, and the narrative that it’s all about getting the ‘undecided voter’ or ‘lunchpail voters’ (= white non-college men) etc., is wrong, and of course all that the FTFNYT opinion page talks about.

    remember ‘soccer moms’ ? That was all about ‘white women we can get to be scared’

  156. 156.

    gene108

    @Anoniminous:

    After 40 years it’s time Democrats realize campaigning to non-college white voters is a waste of time, money, effort. More important would be to increase non-white vote:

    A couple of points:

    1. Not chasing non-college educated voters works now because over the last 20 years college educated white voters have become reliable Democratic voters.

    2. As someone pointed out in the post-2016 election threads, there isn’t anything minorities can do to stop white people, if enough white people decide to vote for Trump.

    Our side needs to drive up votes with enough non-college educated and rural white voters to cut into the margins Republicans have with white voters.

    Joe Biden did this in 2020, especially with white men, which is one reason he won. It offset whatever losses were there among Hispanic voters.

  157. 157.

    Tony G

    @Ella in New Mexico: Yes, that sounds about right.  I “grew up” as a Catholic (a slightly different weird religion) but in the past I’ve worked with a couple of hard-core Evangelical Christians.  What I “learned” from them is that When Jesus Comes Back (any day now!) it does NOT usher in a paradise of peace and love.  Instead it means that all of the people who have not accepted (in the proper way) Jesus as their savior are slaughtered and then have their souls tortured for eternity.  What a nice, loving theology!  The attraction of those beliefs, I suppose, is that each Evangelical Christian believes that he or she will be among the Elect who are saved from eternal torment.  The fact the Evangelicals are among the largest groups that support people like Trump and Vance is entirely predictable.

  158. 158.

    PJ

    Framing an election as about “excitement”, as the press loves to do, is looking at it as a reality show, or a sporting event, rather than as selecting the best person for a very important job, or, as now, preserving democracy or welcoming dictatorship and white christianist supremacy.

    I just don’t think “excitement” matters much in this election.  People who always vote for Democrats, or who just can’t stand Trump, are going to vote for the Democrat whether it’s Biden or Harris or a moldy piece of cheese.  Whether or not Democrats are “excited” makes no difference to how they vote.  And Trumpers and die-hard (i.e., white supremacist and low tax and no regulation) Republicans are never going to vote for a Democrat.

    Because this is such a polarized country now, the election is going to hinge on how certain “independent” (i.e. either completely checked out or just plain stupid) voters in a handful of states decide to vote.  If they cared much about democracy or policy, their decision would already have been made.  A lot of it depends on how much they “like” a candidate.  For Biden and Trump, I think how much they like each one has probably been pretty baked in for a while now.  There’s no wild card there.  With Harris, I have no idea how much she is going to appeal to them.

    This is a deeply misogynistic and racist country, and my thought has been that it was, and still is, easier for these “independents” to vote for an old genial white guy than for a younger sharp black woman.  I hope that I am wrong about this, and that the electorate has become less awful in the last eight years.  Polls haven’t moved significantly since Harris took over, but I hope that polls this year are just completely off (as they have been in recent years), and Trump is as, or even more, toxic to the average American as he has been.  In any event, we are going to find out whether the mass of voters in certain states dislike women and black people more or less than they used to.

  159. 159.

    Other MJS

    @Other MJS:

    It occurs to me that Trump’s general incoherence is a kind of all-purpose dog whistle generator. He injects his messages into the infosphere, but it’s damn near impossible to find an actual sentence to document it. (IOW, he’s a doubleplusgood duckspeaker.)

  160. 160.

    E.

    I don’t know why we are making excuses for the Trump statement. It was not unclear. It was about his desire to end democracy. If you don’t want to talk about it, okay, but that’s what the words mean. I think when they tell us who they are, we should listen.

  161. 161.

    Josie

    @piratedan: ​
     You have described my nightmare. They are way too cocky, which tells me that they have a plan. Like you, I am hoping that our attorneys and the DOJ also have plans to keep them from carrying out theirs.

  162. 162.

    WereBear

    @Tony G: Evangelicals are the slaveholding part of the many Protestant breakups, pre-Civil War.

    The northern tended to be abolitionist in outlook, while the traitor states embraced god’s love of slavery. Part of what was preached to their slaves, as well.

    Explains so much.

  164. 164.

    M31

    @Martin: the analogy for modeling elections on college admissions is so good, as it points out all the trade offs — consequential trade offs that can make or break you

    One year at the college I work at the administration decided to just up the level of financial aid, thinking it would get them better students — this was done in a pretty sudden and not-thought-through manner, and the result was partly ‘better’ students but mostly MORE students. This meant that the scholarship budget was completely fucked for the next 4 years for undergrads and 2 for masters, and that suddenly the faculty had to contend with a large bulge of students to manage through all the many required courses, but it was of course temporary so adjuncts had to be rounded up at the last minute and some of them were problematic, etc. etc.

    it could have been done intelligently and wasn’t, oops

    thankfully not too long after that that whole upper administration was gone

  165. 165.

    Martin

    @catclub:

    This is so hard for me to even believe, and yet there are people now who say the economy right now is the worst ever, in complete contradiction of the facts.

    Don’t read anything into that. People are very good at validating their beliefs. If they are saying the economy is the worst ever, with the exception of some specific situations, these are going to be people 100% committed to Trump making justification for why they are voting for a felon.

    You’re getting cause and effect backward with these people. They aren’t voting for Trump because they think the economy is terrible. They think the economy is terrible because it gives them a reasonable defense for voting for Trump.

    Everyone does this to some degree. “I have made a decision that isn’t 100% solid, so I’ll invent a bunch of validations to shore it up.” Every time one of my friends buys an expensive car they give me an earfull of them.

  166. 166.

    Eunicecycle

    @piratedan: I worry about Republican officials refusing to certify results. Then court cases that take weeks, appeals, etc. Then the appeal to the SC, under equal protection, which of course would be nonsense but with this SC, who knows?

  167. 167.

    Betty

    @rikyrah: Her campaign needs to run that as part of an intro to Kamala Harris In a long form ad. It will answer all those Dems are soft on crime allegations.

  169. 169.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @rikyrah:

    White dudes in academia love jerking off to their own devil’s advocate nonsense because they’re all convinced they see/understand something in a special way no one else possibly could.

    Which is the perfect description of The Three Stooges at LGM.

  171. 171.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @cmorenc:

    Gore Vidal’s “Burr” is a great read.  Yeah, it’s a novel but it’s brilliantly written and Vidal’s ‘take’ on Burr is as justifiable as anybody elses.

  175. 175.

    Ruckus

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:

    There was a time, not all that long ago when most of this wouldn’t matter because no one would see much or any of it. But now? All of the asinine SFB, and conservative BS is there for anyone paying any attention to see it. Some of course will think that’s grand old whatever and the rest of us will see that it’s just more grand old crap of people living in a world of hate and stupid. And now add weird to that world. It’s too long as a description but Grand Old Weird Racist Shit party does have a ring to it.

  177. 177.

    M31

    speaking of VP selections, I had totally forgotten that when Pence was selected (and Trump immediately had second thoughts) the other main candidates were fucking Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie

    eww

  178. 178.

    trollhattan

    The start of Dark Brandon, NMFTG edition?

    July 27, 2024 at 12:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

    Politico: “Biden is likely to endorse establishing term limits for justices and an enforceable code of ethics, in an announcement that represents a remarkable shift for a president who had long resisted calls to overhaul the high court.”

    “He is also expected to push for a constitutional amendment limiting immunity for presidents and certain other officeholders, in a response to the court’s July 1 ruling.”

  182. 182.

    Geminid

    @Anoniminous: I think Democrats can pitch policies that appeal to the broader cohort of non-college educated voters without regard to their ethnicity. All the better if some of the White members join in.

  185. 185.

    A Man for All Seasonings (formerly Geeno)

    @WereBear:

    No “Sofa No.2” by Frank Zappa and the Mothers of Invention?

    I question that list.

  186. 186.

    Liminal Owl

    @TinRoofRusted: Thank you for the gift link.

    Reading the comments is shocking, at least to naive me. Nearly all of the comments support Vance’s anti-trans bigotry, nobody in the sample I read addresses his misogyny or authoritarian-fascism, and one says (approvingly, as far as I can tell) that “if Vance would tone down his racism, the whole country would support him.”  WTF?

    I knew the FNYT had long since abandoned pretensions to liberality but hadn’t read it enough recently to know its surviving readership had followed suit.

  187. 187.

    Ruckus

    @Quinerly:

    What we think is that he really hates is that women will be considered to be better than him. And it’s actually that he hates that anyone will be considered better than him in any way. But women especially, because that means he isn’t worth dog poop. (That is his concept, I’m just relaying the message in clear language) And the thing is – he isn’t worth dog shit. A rather low bar to clear for sure, and he isn’t close to making it.

  188. 188.

    BR

    @Liminal Owl: ​
    A. G. Sulzberger got what he wanted. He’s been trying to push his newsroom rightward — he *wanted* conservatives to read them. He’s got it.

  189. 189.

    cmorenc

    @Eunicecycle: …and with gop refusing to certify the vote count in states Harris has apparently won by the numbers- they deny Harris the ability to reach 270.  Even though Trump still has fewer certified EV s than Harris, the goal is to make the election result inconclusive and have Mike Johnson declare it therefore goes to the House, where they have a majority of state delegations.  That is the same strategy Trump tried to pull off in 2020, but Pence and enough GOP officials in states still had enough integrity to not go along.

  190. 190.

    brantl

    @rk:  “Palatable” and Republican, isn’t anything that they w ill be able to put together. Remember ‘Little Marco’ and ‘Puppy Killer’ Noeme?

  192. 192.

    Martin

    @M31: It’s absurdly difficult stuff. It’s one of those tasks that you can only get through on faith, because there’s no confidence. You really have no control over anything – you’ve bet everything on your ability to predict the behavior of 17 year olds making the biggest decision in their life so far. And yet, it usually works. So when your instincts give you a direction to go in, sure, you do the math as best as math allows, but you follow those instincts, because really it’s all you got.

    But in terms of modeling, decision selection, tradeoffs, and so on, there are a lot of parallels. There’s the matter of risk tolerance as well. Constantly going back to the middle age white male voter feels safe. They’re a known quantity. The 21 year old female voter feels risky because they’re harder to understand and because sometimes they vote and sometimes they don’t. And you can’t really predict their behavior because this is the first presidential election they are voting in. You have data on prior 21 year olds, but you have NO data on these particular voters. That strategy requires a lot of faith that they’ll behave the way your vibes are telling you they will.

  193. 193.

    Geminid

    @Richard Fox: Ironically, after conquering kingdoms from Mesopotamia to the Mediterranean coast, Cyrus fell in battle when he attacked a nomadic tribe ruled by a woman

    Legend has it that when the woman’s vassals brought her Cyrus’s head, she plunged it into a bucket of blood and cried, “We’re not going back!”

  194. 194.

    Kyle Rayner

    Interestingly, even the generous interpretation of “you won’t have to vote in four years” that they’ll simply already have all that they want still reflects/sells the totally unrealistic conservative idea that there is some perfect state into which we can usher our country and then let it crystallize there for the ages. It’s not true any more than the idea that if we had only conserved some past perfect state, everyone would now be happy. It’ll always be relevant to vote and improve the nation, and the “you won’t have to vote” idea that agitating for change can become obsolete is just as dangerous as “you won’t get to vote.”

    (And that’s aside from the underlying promise of “you won’t have to vote because we’ll disenfranchise all the undesirables if you elect me.”)

  195. 195.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Martin: I also figure there’s a hack gap operating here: about 40% of the country, if you ask them how they think the economy is doing, will answer “great” if the President is a Republican and “terrible” if the President is not a Republican. The number of people who are that hackish on the Democratic side is smaller, and many liberals and progressives will basically never say the economy is doing well because they’re concerned about huge structural inequities that aren’t going away any time soon regardless of the adminstration. So all of that biases the public in general for rating Republicans higher on economics regardless of their actual acumen.

  198. 198.

    Repatriated

    @rikyrah:

    The “fixed in 4 years so they don’t have to vote” is Trump admitting that he knows their support is merely transactional.  That is, he’s saying that he can lock in their policy preferences (abortion ban, religion in schools) during a subsequent term — probably through USSC apppointments.  Once that’s done, they can return to ignoring politics.  It’s is perversion of the old slogan, “vote for the crook — it’s important”.

    And it shows that he doesn’t care about the future prospects of the GOP beyond getting himself out of legal jepoardy and shoveling money into his pockets.

     

    Or he could indeed be declaring that he’ll end democracy in the US, and we need to take that possibility seriously too!  That said, even the most charitable reading of that statement is damning.

  199. 199.

    brantl

    @Viva BrisVegas:How do we know that the shooter missed? After all the bullet could have gone straight through one earhole and out the other and we’d not be able to tell.

     

    I have said this, myself. It’s probably why they aren’t showing the medical reports, it probably shows damage to both ears, and only one bullet!

  200. 200.

    Martin

    Nods, nods.

    But the case for Harris is less about existing polls, which were asking an entirely hypothetical question of voters up until the Sunday Biden resigned. Instead, Harris gives Democrats an opportunity rarely afforded to a party at this point in the year: a chance to reset the campaign.
    In fact, Harris’ potential to re-energize disaffected Democrats could also go undetected by polls. Because polls depend on a representative model of the electorate, a poll based on a Biden-Trump model could miss disengaged Democrats who would vote for Harris, but not Biden, potentially understating her true strength with the electorate. These demoralized Democrats could be skipping out on Biden for a number of reasons ranging from his age, which is broadly a concern for all voters, to his handling of the conflict in the Middle East, which is criticized by progressive Democrats, or his association by the electorate with double-digit percentage price increases since his inauguration, which is generally under scrutiny from moderate Democrats. Harris is not fully burdened by these factors, and as a breakout candidate, can more freely define herself to voters across the political spectrum dissatisfied with the Biden presidency.

    Likely voter models are what to watch. Most polls are still registered voters – usually likely voter models show up after the conventions because it’s still a little early to gauge who is likely to vote.

    It’s not that Democrats should always throw all of their energy behind turnout rather than swing voters, but given how divided the country is and the contrast Harris provides to both Trump and Biden in terms of what we want the country to look like, turnout is where the opportunity is, not changing minds. Plus, swing voters in this moment, almost uniquely, look like disaffected Dems. They back Democratic ideas but are disappointed Dems haven’t delivered on them

    I’ll also add the 100,000+ new voter registrations that have happened this week won’t show up in the RV models or LV models this entire cycle. They are almost all going to be D votes.

  208. 208.

    kalakal

    @Ken:

    the same effect as the repeated assurances that Trump is passing all the cognitive-decline tests he’s taking.

    But Trump is in the very best of health.

    Why, I remember back in around 2017, he proudly announced the results of his medical exam*. “He was in perfect health, he’d tested positive for everything!”

    My first thought was Wassermann…

    *Anyone remember poor old Dr. Bong?

  211. 211.

    Chris Johnson

    @WereBear: Actually, Zappa would have loved Vance! In the same manner that he wrote about other notables such as the Illinois Enema Bandit, or Carolina Hardcore Ecstacy. Zappa was fascinated by Vance-like characters. That’s not the same thing as liking them, but he was fascinated by them. He’d show people video or audio he had of people showing Vance-like qualities, and then watch to see their reactions.

    I guess we’re all Zappa now, and we’re watching to see America’s reactions.

    As Zappa said, “REGISTER TO VOTE!” (also, tax all the churches, tax the businesses belonging to the churches!)

  213. 213.

    Ruckus

    @Tony G:

    I was.

    I was one of the smallest kids in freshman year HS. Was sent to a Catholic all boys technical HS – attended only freshman year. Second week, an all student assembly to pick the smallest kid in each shop to go up on stage. That was me. I told them that if I stood up I was walking out the back door and if anyone even tried to  stop me I would punch them in the junk as hard as possible. It turned out that I was exactly correct, that making fun of their height was exactly the point. That was over 60 yrs ago and I remember it like it was yesterday. I’ve kept that concept, that some humans can and likely will be as shitty as it is possible to be with me ever since, and that has served me well. Most people are nowhere near bottoming out that low. But some are. At least I opened up some eyes that day.

  215. 215.

    Geminid

    @frosty: It could be the Michigan 7th CD. Cooks rates it as the median congressional district, with 217 other districts more Republican and 2017 more Democratic.

    The 7th runs from Saginaw Bay south to Flint, and includes the cities of Saginaw and Midland. Democrat Dan Kildee has held it for multiple terms but he is retiring. Democrats will choose their candidate August 6 and State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet seems the likely nominee. Rivet has been endorsed by Rep. Kildee, Governor Whitmer and the UAW.

  218. 218.

    Martin

    @Repatriated: I disagree.

    This entire situation with Trump has been a campaign by white christians to restore the days when American culture WAS white Christian culture, and white Christians had a veto over all other cultures. When black people on TV looked like Good Times, and not the Huxtables, because that’s the view that made white people comfortable. When gay people were completely invisible. And so on.

    Yes, the policy wins can help lock that down, but the real problem is that white Christians know they are electorally doomed. They cannot win elections. And they back Trump because Trump promises to restore white culture to the fore, because that’s how he talks, and because Trump promises to fix the electoral problem.

    His “you won’t need to worry about voting again” can mean a few different things. Yes, it could mean “we’re doing away with elections, I’m your king now”. It could also mean “Mass deportations now, I will reshape the electorate so you are no longer in the minority”. It could also mean “a national ban on felons voting, and we’re going to make sure we turn every person of color into a felon”. And anything inbetween or some combination of these.

    The only way “you won’t need to worry about voting again” would make sense as a pitch by Trump, is if it is received as “I will ensure you get to stay in power”. Now, that doesn’t preclude the possibility it’s a lie, Trump has no intention of doing any of this, he just wants to get elected so he can stay out of prison and will only enact policies that protect him, and tell white Christians to go fuck themselves. That’s not even unlikely. But it doesn’t matter if this is a lie – if they believe it, they’ll simply implement as much of that agenda as they can in white christian states, which they are doing now (Texas is now suing the Biden admin to block access to contraception available under Title X, LA is requiring the Bible be taught in schools) and worst case, 125 million well armed white Christian nationalists internalize that promise and seek it out by force. It wouldn’t even be the first time that happened to this country. Either way, it’s incredibly dangerous because it doesn’t matter what Trump wants or intends, it matters what 40-odd percent of this country believe they are entitled to, and Trump is shaping that space in a very dangerous manner.

  219. 219.

    Lyrebird

    @rikyrah: Thank for that link .  Great encapsulation of MVP’s extraordinarily insightful views and accomplishments re crime prevention and more.

  220. 220.

    Ruckus

    @brantl:

    You guys. Just because shit for brains is one of the worst humans on the planet doesn’t mean that he’s not human. And just because he doesn’t deserve, well, everything anything, that doesn’t mean he should be shot. He should have to suffer the humility of being who/what he is, shit for brains. Of course there is a segment of the population that believes that shit for brains is the ultimate human being. Just because they are 100000% wrong doesn’t mean that they are the same as him. Oh wait…..

  221. 221.

    Emily B.

    @BR: After I cancelled my subscription three weeks ago, the NYT sent me a survey for former subscribers. One of the questions asked me to rank my political persuasion AND how I perceived the NYT’s political stance, on a scale from “Very Liberal” to “Very Conservative.”

    Based on the answers I gave them, I guess they’re not missing me.

  223. 223.

    Ruckus

    @What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:

    Shit For Brains now realizes that he should have gone all in and screwed over everyone and the entire country by turning this into The United States of Shit For Brains, before anyone noticed. Fortunately enough of us recognized that was his main goal long before he did and chucked his ass out on the street.

  224. 224.

    trollhattan

    @Ruckus: Had he been killed we’d be in week 3 of MAGAs driving around in their giant pickups shooting at things and people, indiscriminately, with, uh, certain police departments looking the other way or worse.

    So I’m glad that did not happen, never mind the tub o’ goo is trying to get back into the White House and finish ruining the husk of our nation.

    My theory which is mine, is the supersonic shock wave from the round might have been the cause of his wound, whatever that wound was. For a head injury all that blood was not much blood at all. Obviously, the giant gauze pad was a prop.

  225. 225.

    Chris Johnson

    @Liminal Owl: The NYT is quite capable of writing its own comments section, knowing that people will look there to get a sense of vox populi.

    They don’t even HAVE to take real comments and then go through and nuke all the non-MAGA comments.

    They can just make stuff up, and we really have no reason to think they’re not. Full mask-off was at least a month ago now.

  226. 226.

    Bill Arnold

    @Omnes Omnibus:
    Likewise (late 70s). Home ec, shop, and typing, at least one class, for both girls and boys.
    Home ec was basically how to boil water and then how to make from-scratch chocolate chip cookies, and basic sewing skills.
    Shop was the usual, though we had a kiln and made some basic pottery.
    Typing was with manual typewriters. I never exceeded 20 words per minute. (Now a 80 wpm).

  227. 227.

    Citizen Alan

    @Tony G: Quite true. The alliance between fundamentalist evangelicals and conservative catholics is possibly the most cynical in US history, Because both sides of the alliance believe that they are just using the other side, who will all eventually be condemned to hell for not believing in jesus in the proper way.

  228. 228.

    Bill Arnold

    @Omnes Omnibus:
    In particular, if team fascism stops voting, and there are still meaningful elections, then team non-fascism wins those elections and reverses team fascism’s moves.
    So the most-pro-Trump possible interpretation is that there will no longer be meaningful elections in 4 years if Trump wins.

  229. 229.

    Ruckus

    @rk:

    Can you get worse than Vance?

    Unfortunately, with difficulty, yes.

    The range of humans runs from under the bottom of the barrel to pretty damn good. Someone kicked the barrel over and there was JD. There has been a lot of barrel kicking over on the rethuglican side of the aisle over the last 20 yrs or so, as in scraping the bottom of it after kicking it over.

  230. 230.

    Chris Johnson

    @matt: He’d better go to TOWN on their junk for that much money. We can call him Bitcoin Nightstand Trump: too high class to leave a twenty on the nightstand, you’d best empty your bitcoin wallet before them little hands get busy.

  232. 232.

    Citizen Alan

    @cmorenc: But certification will take place under the next congress, right? So long as we retake the house that shouldn’t be an issue.

  233. 233.

    matt

    @Chris Johnson: I think it’s crazy that it’s legal. Banana republic stuff. I wish the Supreme Court hadn’t made it illegal to make bribery illegal.

  234. 234.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    @Martin: yeah, and you know what the rich kids do now to game that system?  Visit every school in person and customize their essay with happy anecdotes about the visit to make it sound as if it’s their absolute first choice.  My poor niece is being dragged around to over a dozen schools in order to make sure each one thinks she’ll go there if admitted.

     

    @Matt McIrvin:

    @Geminid: I’m replying to both of you re JD Vance because while I agree with Matt, I also think it might be Geminid who posted that he suspected the Trump kids were paid to promote JD Vance, most likely by Putin.  I’m sure the payment came in the form of a promise, but they must be envious of Kushner’s Saudi billions and wondering when they’d get their share.  It just makes so much sense, because Putin got TCFG elected in 2016 to dismantle NATO and the sanctions against Russia.  Then it transpired that the President didn’t have that kind of power, so with Putin’s help, the right-wing ramps up mechanisms to make sure that next time the President does have the kind of power.

    JD Vance has demonstrated that he’s a walking tub of resentment for sale to the highest bidder (just like Clarence Thomas), and he’s already spouted Putin’s talking points re Ukraine, and TCFG’s not getting any younger, so Putin bribed Uday and Qusay to promote his favorite candidate. And Trump, thinking it’s going to be a walk in the park and/or wanting to make sure the next VP isn’t loyal to the Constitution, agrees at the last minute.

  236. 236.

    Citizen Alan

    @E.: WE Are not. I think most of the commenters here who may ook like they are doing so are simply anticipating the media’s efforts to normalize Neo-Hitler’s statements and gaslight us into forgetting about them.

  237. 237.

    Bill Arnold

    @catclub:

    Trump might be telling this group (in his ham handed way) that they can go back to that mode after they elect him.

    Yeah, there’s an element of this. It still means that Trump is assuring christian supremacists that there won’t be meaningful elections in 4 years if he is elected.
    Also, his request for Christian votes is offensive for other reasons, but that’s a longer rant.

  238. 238.

    Bex

    @M31: Trump doesn’t pick his VPs.  Manafort picked Pence and Putin, with assists from Tucker Carlson and Trump Jr., picked Vance.

  239. 239.

    Bill Arnold

    @Jeffro:

    in the same video he blurts out, “I’m not a Christian”

    Unclear to me, though I only listed a couple of times. Could have been something like “no .. a Christian”

  241. 241.

    trollhattan

    @Bill Arnold: ​
    The list of folks counting on his election to get their pardons is yuge by now. I hope they’re all sleeping really well.

  242. 242.

    UncleEbeneezer

    You love to see it…

    I can’t believe my eyes GOLF CARTS AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE

    American flags

    BEYONCÉ PLAYING IN THE BACKGROUND

    KAMALA SIGNS EVERYWHERE IN THE VILLAGES (!!!) IN FLORIDA

    This is real This is happening She did this Freedom we can’t lose!

  246. 246.

    Bill Arnold

    Has elderly convicted felon Donald J. Trump answered questions from a hostile reporters in a press conference setting since since Feb 8, 2024? That would be 171 days. There are bunch of sharp-edged questions that need to be asked.
    (days elapsed calculator)

  247. 247.

    Martin

    @Chacal Charles Calthrop: yeah, and you know what the rich kids do now to game that system?  Visit every school in person and customize their essay with happy anecdotes about the visit to make it sound as if it’s their absolute first choice.  My poor niece is being dragged around to over a dozen schools in order to make sure each one thinks she’ll go there if admitted.

    That doesn’t work. Trust me. Plus, the yield model gets no input from the application. We had 140,000 applications, I wasn’t going to scan all of them to get sentiment analysis of whether they really wanted to attend. Of course they’re going to say that.  And the yield model has as much bearing of whether you are admitted as anything on your application.

    The yield model is based on demographics and where the applicant is in the pool – namely, where we think they are in everyone else’s pool, and therefore how likely we are to get them with an offer. The student can’t affect that.

    The reason it’s hard, which the student can’t really affect, is that the rankings are what drive the overarching admissions process now. The measure that shows up in rankings is selectivity – the best school admit the fewest students. The optimal situation is if we need to add 4,000 freshmen out of that 140,000, that we admit exactly 4,000 students and yield 100%. That’s a 3% selectivity rate. That’s fucking gold for rankings.

    So how do you do that? If there’s a superstar in my pool – straight As, top test scores, huge achievements – I’m not getting that student. My yield model might score them at 1% or less. To get one of those students I need to admit 100 of them. That destroys my selectivity, which hurts our rankings. What helps our rankings is to deny that student. Find the sweet spot between high scores and grades and high yield probability, and only admit them and reject everyone above and below, which usually works out to be roughly the applicant mean + half a standard deviation above, more or less. Because that’s where the most applicants are, the range on GPA/test scores can be very narrow – it’s a thin and tall slice of the pool. If you aren’t in that narrow window, you’re out. And it doesn’t matter if you visited, write about how much you wanted to come, bought our sweatshirt, and so on. Nuke everyone picking you as their safe school and everyone otherwise out of your league. Students that aren’t really good at assessing where they are competitive and making sure they’re applying to those schools, getting shut out of any offers is pretty common.

    Women tend to underestimate where they are competitive, men almost always overestimate. Because we take the high end of that competitive pool (applicants that are a little stronger), women are more likely to get admitted, and men more likely to get shut out of all of their choices, and you see that in the enrollment data.

    I cannot tell you how many 4.4 GPA students I would find at the community colleges because they thought they were Ivy material with UC Davis as a safe school and they didn’t get into an Ivy, and Davis turned them down as well as too unlikely to attend. They skipped over UCLA because they didn’t like the city, but which was probably the match. It’s bullshit and it’s destroying higher education.

  248. 248.

    Bill Arnold

    @cmorenc:

    Even though Trump still has fewer certified EV s than Harris, the goal is to make the election result inconclusive and have Mike Johnson declare it therefore goes to the House, where they have a majority of state delegations.

    They would be legitimate targets in the resulting civil war. Sigh.

  251. 251.

    Martin

    @cmorenc: Well, keep in mind a few things:

    1. MVP oversees this process. You said Pence had enough integrity to not go along. MVP is in that role now.
    2. This process happens under the new congress, not the current one. The new congress is seated Jan 3, three days before. Johnson may not have a say if Dems pick up seats.
    3. In order for this to work, they need effectively ALL republicans on board to overcome Dem votes. And all eyes are going to be on them now that we know how this works.
  252. 252.

    TinRoofRusted

    @Liminal Owl:   I have been a subscriber since 1990 and will probably cancel unless they correct their direction soon.  It has been my hometown newspaper and there is still good reporting done. But lately even that cannot cancel out their political coverage.

    As to the comments if you go to the readers picks tab the most liked are all slagging on the Lovesac man  (thanks Jayne!).

  253. 253.

    Bill Arnold

    @Geminid:
    Very well done! :-)
    For those interested:
    Search was made among the slain by order of the queen for the body of Cyrus, and when it was found she took a skin, and, filling it full of human blood, she dipped the head of Cyrus in the gore, saying, as she thus insulted the corpse, “I live and have conquered you in fight, and yet by you am I ruined, for you took my son with guile; but thus I make good my threat, and give you your fill of blood.” (Herodotus, The Histories)

  254. 254.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: The woman in this story was Tomyris, Queen of the Massagetae. They were a very warlike tribe that lived between the Caspian and Aral Seas. According to ancient historians, Cyrus was in his late 60s and ruled a vast empire when he proposed marriage to Tomyris. She deduced that this was a hostile takeover bid. When she refused, Cyrus invaded her lands and was slain in battle around 530 BCE.

    Little else is known of the matter, but a remarkable archeological find in far northeastern Iraq has shed more light on Cyrus’s last campaign. Locals mining a bat cave for fertilizer uncovered a trove of clay tiles with markings that showed they were official records from the early Achaemnid Empire.

    Two of the tiles stand out. The first is believed to be a copy of Cyrus’s marriage proposal: a depiction of a man with a big curly beard and funny-looking hat holding up a stringer of fish. The second is thought to be Tomyris’s reply: the imprint of the back of a fist slammed into a block of clay with the middle finger extended.

    Archeologists hope to properly excavate the cave at some future date. Who knows what else they’ll find?

    The Massagetae eventually disappeared into the mists of time, leaving no records of their own. But historians believe they were a Scythian tribe, a conclusion supported by the fact that Tomyris means “Girlboss” in Scythian.

  255. 255.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    @Martin: Wow, thanks.  I will do my best to let my brother and his ex, my niece’s parents, all about this, but as they never listen, I won’t get my hopes up.

  256. 256.

    Ruckus

    @trollhattan:

    Everything is a prop for shitforbrains. Because he has nothing without propping up. And he needs a lot of propping, like a ship in dry dock, his fat ass and his inability to do anything positive requires a massive amount of propping up. So a gauze pad the size of a (insert your favorite oversized prop here) but I’m going to leave this blank, so as not to be banned. Use the nasty side of your imagination.

  258. 258.

    Ruckus

    @Martin:

    Is part of the problem the shear number of high school seniors trying to get into college? More of them than places for them to learn?

  260. 260.

    emjayay

    He’s right. If they had some kids they would be happy and fulfilled.

    Like his parents. And his second father.

  261. 261.

    SomeRandomGuy

    @rikyrah: Yeah, no woman has *ever* drank, or used drugs, out of miserable unhappiness due to having no freedom, no one ever joked about “Mama’s Little Helper.” And every husband can fix a complicated issue like addiction, because Vance doesn’t notice the “c” and thinks it’s addition, which he aced in grade school.

    @artem1s:  there’s only  a couple-three weeks in which he can make a change – since Vance was nominated, there are rules for ballot access that might prevent a change in the ticket. States have rules about who gets on the ballot, and, eventually, ballots go to the printers, and, Rs and Ds usually get automatic access due to being major party nominees.

    Well – if Vance leaves the ticket, there’s no longer a major party nominee, you see? He’s not just T’s choice, he’s the RPUSA nominee. No ideas what that would *mean*, but, all rules, etc., aside, ballots will hit the printers in not-too-long.

    So it’s not easy, and would require competence, so if it happens, it will be a mess for the Trump team, and cause far too many couch memes to be displayed in the moment.

  262. 262.

    SomeRandomGuy

    @JaySinWA: I’d say the most obvious would be, “in four more years, we can complete the capture of the federal judiciary, and we won’t need your votes for another generation.”

    I mean, I think those are Mitch McConnell’s words, going through TFG’s Swiss-cheese brain, but, I think that’s why he’s saying it.

     

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:  My grandmother used the same word, and I decided, at the age of 5, that “daven” was another word for “behind” (again, 5), because a port is where you put something, like a boat or ship.

  263. 263.

    Liminal Owl

    @TinRoofRusted: It’s my hometown newspaper (or was, growing up, and in my heart I’m a New Yorker forever). I canceled my subscription about three months ago, and this week had an argument about it with a much-loved family member who thinks of himself as a liberal.

  268. 268.

    brantl

    @PJ:

    This is a deeply misogynistic and racist country, and my thought has been that it was, and still is, easier for these “independents” to vote for an old genial white guy than for a younger sharp black woman.

     

    What “old genial white guy”? That was Biden, not Stumpy.

  269. 269.

    brantl

    @Ruckus:  I didn’t say I was wishing it went through his head, I was saying there’s no way we can be sure it didn’t go through his head, it being open air space, and all.

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