At this point, apart from his rabid cultists, the GOP is quite as tired of TFG as us sane people. Per National treasure Alexandra Petri, at the Washington Post, ” Your Grace, we’d never suggest you stop talking! Just do it down here!” [gift link, FWIW]:
Donald Trump! Once and future president-king! Your Grace! We would never suggest you stop talking. That should go without saying, unlike your recent remarks, which, obviously, went with saying. Which was, of course, good…
Obviously, every word that falls from your beautiful, well-formed lips is burnished gold, and we are constantly privileged to hear the droppings of your mind. Droppings in a positive way! We’re so glad you say things.
We know who you are. You have never been shy about it. You launched your campaign with birtherism about Barack Obama, and, before that, your hobby was calling for the death penalty for the exonerated Central Park Five. To be surprised by your remarks at this point is like turning on the faucet and being shocked that water comes out.
We would never ask you to stop talking, certainly not between now and the election, certainly not prefaced by “for the love of God.” Or stop posting! Please keep doing both!…
We heard you wanted to do more interviews, and we think that’s just great! Of course! Come to this television studio. It’s definitely a real studio and not a soundproof chamber. Look at these great lights! Would a soundproof chamber in which we have stockpiled enough snacks to last you for three months have lighting like this? I don’t think so! Keep coming!
Of course, you can leave the studio to go to rallies! We love when you do rallies! Especially when you talk about Hannibal Lecter. That kills every time. We just want to pick the best venues possible for those rallies! And sometimes, the best venues are actually more intimate. Sometimes, the biggest crowds are the ones you can’t see. Instead of stepping out onto the stage, consider stepping down a long flight of stairs into a deep, deep underground bunker. Yes, the rally is down there!
Ooh, what’s that? I think I hear a foreign strongman complimenting you, Donald! I think you should follow me down these stairs into this magnificent cellar! There’s a foreign strongman complimenting you — and free wine! In a cask! (We know you won’t want to drink it, but you can bottle it and sell it!) And a big crowd, all cheering, who can’t wait to hear you! And MIT professors who say you’re just so smart! Everything you want is down there, and you will probably want to stay there from now until the election! We’re almost there now!
Baud
I was tired of him in 2016. Apparently, enough other people thought he was a breath3of fresh air.
sukabi
@Baud: lol… I heard enough about him in the 80s and 90s to not want to hear about him ever again… I mean who tf bankrupts a casino?
Geoduck
According to CNN.com, he’s claimed he wants to debate Harris on Fox. She hasn’t agreed to do it, yet…
Chief Oshkosh
@Geoduck: Had they previously agreed on a venue and format ?
TBone
I just read today’s letter from Heather Cox Richardson and now I almost don’t need my morning coffee to wake up. I’m incensed. I knew most of this stuff, but she puts it all together into coherent context and, in so doing, reaffirms her status as a national treasure.
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/august-2-2024
A good complement to contrast with Petri this morning. Richardson is dead serious and it shows.
It’s been a whole year (!) but Judge Chutkan finally got the case back.
m.j.
Dahlia Lithwick’s, “Amicus,” has a nice rundown of Trump’s abuse of the civil court system.
Forgive me, but fuck Hitler. If you want to go back in time and kill someone, it should be someone like Roy Cohn.
Geoduck
@Chief Oshkosh: There was another ABC debate scheduled before Biden dropped out, the Shaitgibbon says he’s not doing that one, but the Fox one instead.
charon
That cask of fine wine, Amontillado no doubt
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cask_of_Amontillado
TBone
@m.j.: add Old Man Trump and I’m all in.
TBone
@charon: 💜 I was given the album on an 18k gold plated CD at a surprise party by my boyfriend’s brother
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8n-TjK-Y_8
TBone
https://crooksandliars.com/2024/08/introducing-jd-jelly-new-couch-lubricant
topclimber
Do jackal lawyers think much will come from Judge Chutkan’s expected hearings about what Trump crimes were official vs. unofficial?
For the common jackal: Do you think it might break in time to matter?
TBone
@topclimber: maybe some of the discovery phase will be made public in time to matter…
WereBear
@TBone: I have been admiring the ‘nads on this campaign, and I think such permission to say what we are all thinking has been part of her intoxicating appeal.
She’s got his number. Go get ‘im.
WereBear
@topclimber: The 34 felony convictions are doing their good work. All Hail Alvin Bragg and NY in general. (I’m a convert and a fan.)
And it’s only fair. We also grew the monster, but he wouldn’t have made it out of Queens without that reality show.
TBone
@WereBear: amen!
Oops, I mean
awoman!
topclimber
@WereBear: Ain’t it the truth.
TBone
@TBone: 🎶 this song (and, truly, the video) always gets me right in my feels
https://youtu.be/6oqJ0JpMj6I
RandomMonster
That article had the vibe of this sketch:
Whistler: Right, Your Majesty is like a stream of bat’s piss.
Prince: What?
Whistler: It was one of Wilde’s.
Oscar: It sodding was not! It was Shaw!
Prince: Well Mr. Shaw?
Shaw: I… I merely meant, Your Majesty, that you shine out like a shaft of gold when all around is dark.
TBone
It’s not raining but we are listed as having 100% humidity with a dewpoint of 69 degrees. Temp is 69 degrees.
Ugh. Everything is so sticky!
WereBear
Nobody wants to talk about Biden’s debate any more. Now it’s the WWE and The Donold has been challenged.
Back in the day, I think it involved beating on your heat with a plank of wood while roaring like a rabid beast. But then, this was Florida. Rules might be different in YOUR locality.
WereBear
Thing is, even Jim Jones built his original congregation with a promise of good works and giving people a chance. You’ll get more recruits with honey, etc.
But Trump based his cult on bullying. He recruited lots of bullies, and they didn’t fall away into claiming they are Independents. HE was the one who drove them to public claims of “I’m an Independent!”
For some of them, it’s starting to sink that they CAN be.
Betty Cracker
There’s a tropical storm warning for most of FL this morning. We’re not worried — the river levels are still recovering from the drought, so there’s capacity to take in a bunch of rain without flooding. If it looks like major rain is coming, we will park a vehicle at a nearby boat ramp off the main highway so that if our dirt road washes out, we can get to the ramp by boat and drive wherever we need to go.
My only concern is the system’s potential to blow up once it clears Cuba. Normally, it wouldn’t have time to strengthen that much before it hits the peninsula, but the Gulf is so warm, and we’ve seen systems intensify fast over the last few seasons.
TBone
Did someone say sticky? Oh yeah, it was me…
https://www.propublica.org/article/project-2025-trump-campaign-heritage-foundation-paul-dans
Someone also mentioned Hitler.
TBone
@Betty Cracker: sending safety wishes to you and all in the path.
WereBear
@Betty Cracker: Glad to hear you have good plans.
TBone
So I had to instruct the head guy yesterday that his underling had installed our new window wells contrary to head guy’s instructions. This is our second attempt at regrading to protect the cinder block foundation and basement from all the extra water we’re being inundated with here due to a neighbor rerouting storm water to our yard. I called the same guy because his first attempt almost did the trick. So the underling finally got the picture and removed and reinstalled the offending work but, of course, we got charged extra for the extra time caused by their miscommunication.
WereBear
@TBone: I hope this clown is not the only game in town.
Sally
@TBone: I can’t find it now, but I thought I read that Paul Dans is kushner’s brother-in-law. Can anyone confirm, or otherwise? I don’t want to spread fake rumours.
Ed: i looked at Wikipedia and apparently not. Sorry everyone.
TBone
@WereBear: Actually, he pretty much is. The other guy I hired dodged me for an entire year after I’d hired him (I was smart enough not to pay anything up front to either guy, thank goodness).
raven
@TBone: You can highlight text and go to the “link” as shown in this video.
NeenerNeener
@WereBear: Ah yes…The Apprentice. Maybe if we’re going back in time to kill the appropriate people we should whack Mark Burnett also/too.
NotMax
@Betty Cracker
NHC Advisory 3A.
Stay safe. And hydrated.
Jeffg166
Trump fatigue syndrome is here.
TBone
@Sally: your question was good, no apologies!
I found this history as a result:
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/07/794320899/behind-the-kushners-and-the-trumps-with-american-oligarchs-author-andrea-bernste
NotMax
@TBone
Goin’ sticky.
;)
TBone
@Jeffg166: every day when I remember he’s STILL there it’s like WTF why is this waking nightmare our reality? I mean, really???
MagdaInBlack
@raven: Thank you, because I did not know how to do that either.
I am reluctant to post links because I’d rather just avoid the complaints.
NotMax
@TBone
Thinking of referring to him as Creepy Don from here on out.
TBone
@NotMax: 😊 so close to this 🎶:
https://youtu.be/JYWkG_DI5OE
The ONLY sticky I want today is a famous grilled Sticky cinnamon bun from State College, PA!
lowtechcyclist
@TBone:
I love the song, but man, that’s one weird video! (FWIW, I’d have used that word for it even if the past two weeks hadn’t happened.)
I first started hearing this song somewhere around 2016 or 2017 when local alternative radio station WRNR (Annapolis, MD) started playing it fairly frequently. I was surprised to find out later that it was from the mid-1990s, and still have no idea why RNR decided to start playing it then. Alternative radio stations do what they will. :-)
TBone
@NotMax: I just a few moments ago had sent an old meme to my cousin in Michigan – Ripley from Alien covered in sweat and grimacing as Donold’s tiny, misshapen hand reaches toward her face.
Kay
Look at this:
2024 #OH09 GE:
Marcy Kaptur (D-Inc) 47% (+10) Derek Merrin (R) 37%
Harris 44% Trump 44% Kennedy 3% Oliver 2% Stein 1%
NW OH, rural counties + Toledo so NOT statewide but this is a good number for Harris (and Kaptur of course but we knew she would win).
Princess
@Jeffg166: Just read a post that said Trump is in the “Fat Elvis” stage of his career. It’s true, and I’ll never be able to unsee it.
TBone
@lowtechcyclist: the devil in me has loved it since it came out! College radio WQSU here still gets me through rough patches frequently – WXPN in Philly is sorely missed.
TBone
@TBone: correction. I’m making banana flapjacks today and serving with fresh homemade honey butter I whipped up from the local female dairy farmer and beekeeper ladies. Sticky consolation.
NotMax
@Princess
One wag opined his appearance in Chicago the other day was like watching a baby crawl across an interstate highway.
Blunt but not off the mark.
WereBear
@Princess: At least we know Trump won’t go the same way.
Ken
Petri’s pretended paean of praise for Trump reminds me of an idle thought I had a couple days ago, when some of Trump’s cultists were saying he deserved credit for the hostage release, because the Russians were anticipating Trump’s re-election. Others have been claiming the same for the record stock-market highs.
I tried to imagine what other weird worship they might come up with. “Magnificent sunrise this morning, but it only did it because Trump’s going to be elected” is probably a little too far.
lowtechcyclist
@NotMax:
We’re scheduled to fly into Tampa on Wednesday. At least it looks like this storm should have moved on by then.
WereBear
Saw a tiptoe headline about “Trump Fumbles Black Outreach” and I was all, “Is that what that was?”
I’m no sports fan, but I think that’s more of a pileup on the quarterback situation.
WereBear
@Ken: Or become a general exclamation in their cult.
“Those prunes did the trick, thanks be to Trump!”
TBone
@Ken: I think that’s not far off the mark 😆
“mark” as in easily conned
Ken
I don’t know about that, but I’m pretty sure he won’t go quietly.
TBone
@WereBear: 😆
Kay
@Ken:
It’s not really an exaggeration. After Trump won in ’16 his devotees invented something called The Trump Effect – anything good that happened in the US was either directly attributable to Donald Trump or indirectly caused by his winner, dominant, own-the-libs vibe. Then it stretched to worldwide- so some Right wing asshole would get elected or installed anywhere else and they’d say “Trump Effect”
NotMax
@Ken
[Insert name of retail establishment here] is having a BOGO sale! Obviously because Creepy Don is going to be elected.
//
Ken
I think I saw that on Bluesky. Someone replied, “except we’d be rooting for the baby.”
Kay
@WereBear:
The funniest part is it really was. It was his Black outreach. Trump is relying on 20% Black vote. That’s what the models are based on, so that’s what the polling is based on. It’s not nuts- that’s what the polling showed over and over and over. He HAS picked up Black support (or did prior to Harris). But they were counting on Biden. They don’t know if that will also apply to Harris.
lowtechcyclist
@Kay:
Good lord, yeah! I’ve been to NW Ohio, if a Dem can come close to breaking even there, they should be able to win statewide.
Would be cool if Harris won Ohio this year the way Obama won Indiana in 2008.
TBone
@Kay: no self respecting Black friends of mine ever defected. They were always anti-fascist and remain steadfast.
I realize that is anecdotal and I’m always an outlier but it comforts me nonetheless.
Kay
@TBone:
Well, I’m sure that’s true but you’ll understand if I prefer a representative sample. The sort of steadfast denial of this isn’t helpful. Republicans are picking up a (slightly) more diverse electorate. It has to be factored in.
Sally
I do wonder if election uncertainty did have some effect on the hostage negotiations. In that, Putin might have thought his only chance of getting his mafia-KGB-body guard mate home (from Germany) was now. Putin knows Scholz was only going to release him for Biden. In fact, putins only chance for such a cross border and complex deal was while Biden was president. Trump could never pull that off. And would never bother to try. But, what would I know!
TBone
Update on Spotted Lantern Fly situation at my house:
Glad I have a can of hairspray and a Bic lighter. Instant flamethrower. Also glad everything but the flies is soaked through so I will avoid starting anything I can’t finish.
Baud
We can’t count on the sky high black vote forever. It’s too extraordinary to last.
If the Republican Party does become more
DEIdiverse, hopefully that’ll convince more white voters to vote for something other than their racial status.Political realignments are not for the feint of heart.
TBone
@Baud: did you spell it feint on purpose? I like it.
Kay
@lowtechcyclist:
Oh, I don’t know. But it’s a good number.
Three of those would be Trump 75% counties so she’s either picking up more moderates in the others or there will be more turnout in Lucas (Toledo).
Baud
@TBone:
I don’t know.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Ken: That kind of shit goes back decades. I think GHE Bush crew tried to pin the shitty stock market on the prospect of Clinton getting elected, and then tried to say the same thing about Obama for the 2008 crash. Can’t have people catching on that Republicans actually suck at managing the economy it’s all they have left.
Princess
@Kay: A friend of mine who is Black and does a lot of local activism is genuinely concerned about Trump’s support among Black men in her world. She doesn’t seem to see Harris turning that around easily or inevitably — I think they’re the kind of men who resent her as a prosecutor, and for marrying a white man. My own one weird anecdote which is not data is my husband had a Black barber up in Canada who was going on and on about how great Trump is!
So I don’t know if 30% support is real or not but the support is definitely there at some level. Will they vote? In what numbers? We’ll see.
WereBear
@Kay: They think they can solve everything with marketing.
But only when what they are selling is new and fresh and no one has a clue about it yet.
SFAW
@Kay:
Is that Jill Fucking Stein? Hasn’t she moved to Moskva yet, to be with her best bud? Talk about being past her sell-by date.
[Of course, if it’s not Jill Fucking Stein, my comments re: her still hold, just not relevant.]
TBone
@Baud: 💜
Baud
@SFAW:
Who is Oliver?
Kay
@SFAW:
It is! She’s just as unbearable as she always is – she’s demanding Harris debate her.
SFAW
When I saw Petri’s “for the love of God,” my (alleged) mind auto-completed “Montresor,” but I figured it was just inadvertent on her part. Glad to see I was wrong, and I feel a little guilty for not giving her more credit initially.
SFAW
@Baud:
No idea, but I’m having a dickens of a time tracking it down.
WereBear
@Princess: They do outreach to sad male supremacists. And there is likely red-pilled males from any culture, tradition, etc. Venn diagram.
I mean, if Trump is your hero… I’m not sure you are firing on all your cylinders, there. I think Trump’s attraction was to people made vulnerable and dysfunctional by Fox News/Rush Limbaugh/Sinclair.
Taking people who already have the conservative tendency to paranoia and turn it up and break the switch.
Selling Authoritarianism. Because these people could not see any of this coming. They really do need to get out more.
topclimber
@Kay: Blame it on all those new black businesses in the Biden economy. Most of them are on the smallish side, the ones who probably pay the highest effective tax rate. They tend to like lower tax messages.
SFAW
@Kay:
Christ, what an asshole.
Baud
@WereBear:
I wonder who is worse. People seduced by Trumpism or people opposed to Trumpism who still won’t vote blue.
Princess
@WereBear: Selling misogyny, I suspect.
WereBear
@SFAW: Part of the Asshole Outreach.
They would do Zooms too, if they could figure it out themselves. And they won’t work well with others. So there they are.
Layer8Problem
@SFAW: Alexandra Petri did all the assigned reading in high school. And college too, I daresay.
Kay
@Princess:
My son who is in the building trades says the same thing – that young Black men are moving further Right. Republicans explicitly leaned into it – they started an overt campaign to divide along gender using “Karen” as a pejorative for women. That’s the play – divide men and women. You know the drill – women are demanding and bitchy and need to be pushed back because men need an advantage or they can’t compete. The NY Post had a launch along these lines yesterday – an article about how Harris is a “mean boss”. I knew it was coming.
Baud
All people have an equal right to experience the joy of oppressing others based on their identity.
Eolirin
@Baud: I dunno. I think there’s a good chance the GOP will collapse into irrelevancy, outside of the south at least, before that happens.
Baud
@Eolirin:
Anything is possible.
SFAW
@Baud:
Yes.
To be more serious: the second group is pretty much the same as the first, just with better optics (in their “minds”). Can lump in the purity-pony Left with those two [sic] groups.
The Thin Black Duke
Yes, we can.
As long as white bigots persist in saying and doing stupid racist shit, even the “trump-curious” subset of the black community will be reminded that Jim Crow policies are just around the corner if the GOP is back in power.
Kay
@Princess:
Fox has Harris as a “mean girl”. This country is just incredibly misogynist. The societal push to make women “nice” (compliant) is just everywhere.
I don’t think it will work for Harris. I actually think she exudes warmth in a way I have never seen before in a woman running for office. To me it’s such a strength because they WILL try to portray her as bitchy and demanding.
SFAW
@Kay:
“Yes, Trump is a liar, and a racist, and a (likely) sexual predator, and his ‘successful businessman’ portrayal is all fake, and yes, he’d implement all sorts of retrograde policies, but that Hillary — well, I JUST DON’T KNOW!”
Booger
@lowtechcyclist: The song was used well in Ted Lasso.
Central Planning
@Kay: I suppose the Trump Effect is also why the market tanked yesterday.
Sorry, I must have bashed my head. The TE is only for good things. /s
Eolirin
@Baud: The problem they have is that they’re still really racist, so even if they have an appealing message to some men it’s going to be hard for them to court minorities, and the only way they can get black men (same for any other group of men) to vote for them in larger numbers is by also being really misogynistic. They don’t offer policy that uplifts, so they only get people by offering to hurt some other group for them. And that really hurts them with women and a good number of other men too.
They’ve got way more room to appeal to Latinos who are more likely to consider themselves white. And that’s potentially dangerous.
Ken
I see you’re still trying to make the short list for Harris’ VP pick.
SFAW
@The Thin Black Duke:
My worry is that every demographic group has an inordinately-large percentage of “the leopard won’t eat MY face” persons.
Princess
@Kay: This is where mocking Trump (“weird”) is probably a better tactic than outrage and anger. Deflate him a bit in their eyes. Tell them he’s a whiny, addled, badly-dressed loser, not an evil fascist genius. Maybe be they’ll stay home.
The Thin Black Duke
@SFAW: We all saw how well that worked out for Herman Cain.
Baud
@The Thin Black Duke:
Even with anticipated defections, the black vote will still be our best demo. It’s the white vote that kills us.
But 90%+ of the black vote isn’t sustainable over the long term IMHO. Republicans will figure out something.
Baud
@Central Planning:
Trump = Jesus
No one ever blames Jesus for losing a game.
Baud
@Kay:
Ah, the Klobuchar Gambit. Well played, NY Post.
Princess
@Kay: Harris really does have the perfect affect for her new role. It’s one reason they are threatened by her laugh. Her ease and joy makes it harder for them to persuasively call her mean. She’s not a scold, she just isn’t. I also love how her campaign described Trump at NABJ as hostile. That was perfect. He is hostile and we shun hostile people.
Eolirin
@Princess: Weird runs really hard against what authoritarian followers want, which is rigid conformity to what’s viewed as normal and mainstream.
It’s one of the most dangerous lines of attack for them to be facing if it becomes broadly accepted by society.
It entirely undermines the position they need to hold to get those people to follow them.
Eolirin
@Baud: The history of the CA GOP suggests otherwise.
SFAW
@Kay:
It is a well-known phenomenon that anything good that happens in the first four years of a Demoncrap admin is due to the previous Repub president, and anything bad that happens from Day One is solely due to the Demoncrap president.
Similarly, anything bad that happens in the first four years of a Rethug admin is due to the the previous Demoncrap admin, but anything good that happens is due to the Rethug pres.
The FTFTFNYT has documented this phenomenon extensively.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@TBone: The Amazon reviews write themselves!
“I had doubts about my brand new corduroy burlap sofa, but with this product…”
Baud
@Eolirin:
People keep saying that, but I disagree. The CA GOP is a function of the nationalizion of politics, and Republicans aren’t a rump party nationally.
It’s also why Dem minorities in deep red states aren’t moving far right.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: They have. Arrest and convict as many black men as they can so black men can be legally disenfranchised.
Oh, wait a minute, you mean the GOP will come up with some way to appeal to black voters. My bad.
lowtechcyclist
@Booger:
Ah, that must’ve been it! I was looking for some instance where it had been in a more or less contemporaneous movie or TV show, but all I could find was Boardwalk Empire, and that was back in the 1990s.
Central Planning
@Baud: You’re right. They do see him as the savior. He even says he is.
And your comment earlier: I think the adherents are worse than someone who votes against their interests. I feel like the latter could be convinced to change their mind. But either way, both are signing up the country for well over 4 years of shit with a Trump vote.
SFAW
@Baud:
Somewhere, Pinche Sulzberger is thinking “Damn! Why haven’t we tried that one yet?”
BlueGuitarist
@Baud:
@SFAW:
Chase Oliver is the gLibertarian candidate for president.
The Thin Black Duke
Oh sure. Rust Never Sleeps.
In the meantime, I’m hoping that Harris and the new generation of Democrats will be the portal that brings in “the yoots”.
Generation Z (or whatever it is these days, I’m a VCR guy in a digital world, so it’s hard to keep up), might be more politically engaged nowadays simply because they are impacted by the problems facing this country that the GOP stubbornly ignores.
Kay
@Baud:
Apparently there are no demanding male congressional bosses. Zero.
Hildebrand
There’s a slice of Black men, like a slice of Latinos, who resonate with Trump’s bullying machismo. They like the not-at-all concealed misogyny. They like the ‘tough guy’ shtick. They like how he punches down.
I’m guessing they share a lack of education with the white guys who are just as enthusiastic about such things.
Some anecdotal good news, though – all the men in the congregation I serve (a Black Lutheran congregation in Detroit) have no intention of voting for Trump, because they have seen that his bigotry never fades and he doesn’t actually get anything done.
SFAW
@lowtechcyclist:
Uhh ..
Baud
@The Thin Black Duke:
I hope so. Supposedly, young men generally may be moving away from us, seduced by misogyny. Nothing to do but wait and see how it all shakes out.
Eolirin
@SFAW: Oh this is outdated. We don’t wait for events now. The economy, crime, etc, is good or bad depending entirely on which party is in control, regardless of actual conditions.
Unfortunately this isn’t limited to Republicans. Democratics, broadly, also poll this way. It’s a big problem.
Baud
@Kay:
The men are more laid back because they’re making love to their couches.
Kay
@Baud:
I think they may move back just because of the age-old “young men want to be where young women are”. My middle son once went to a protest supporting Syrian refugees because a girl he was interested in was going. Such a faker!
lowtechcyclist
@The Thin Black Duke:
This is the story of Donny Rotten.
Princess
@Eolirin: Weird is also useful when talking to MAGAs out in the world. Much better than trying to argue with them. Just point out their leaders and their concerns (most recently that woman boxer from Algeria) are weird — it’s weird to care so much about the things they rant about — and you’re done. They can bluster; your point is made.
Baud
@Eolirin:
Meh, the media has convinced a lot of Dems that the Biden economy is a bad economy, so I disagree.
WereBear
@Kay: A male jerk is unremarkable. Everywhere, but nowhere, like a forgotten tunafish sandwich.
Eolirin
@Baud: If they end up a rump party in, WI, MI and PA, they will never be able to elect a president. MI is headed that way fast. We have to see if PA and WI can follow suit.
But my point in bringing up CA wasn’t to contrast them against the current national GOP, but to point how badly the once dominant CA GOP failed to adapt to a changing political environment, and instead opted to double down on racism. They didn’t get to rump party overnight or magically. They had many opportunities to change course and took none of them.
Baud
@Kay:
Young women also want to be where young men are. Depends who can hold out more. They’re certainly trying to persuade young women to be more “traditional.”
Eolirin
@Baud: We only seem to be losing the young men without college degrees. Those young men also have no economic or even relationship prospects.
They’re very angry young men. Grievance politics is going to play well to that group.
Baud
@Eolirin:
Right, but I’m doubtful that Republicans wouldn’t adjust if they were a rump party nationally. Probably depends on whether big business can take back control from the social righties.
It’s always possible they go the way of the Whigs, but their people are going to go somewhere.
rk
@Princess:
The support is there. I had written previously about a youngish black male colleague of mine who said all his male friends were voting for Trump (they voted Biden last election). Yesterday I asked him how his friends feel about Harris. He said they’re still voting for Trump. He himself was very enthusiastic about Harris though.
Who can even fathom people’s mind? I’ve just given up at this stage.
Baud
@Eolirin:
Thanks to Biden, they have more economic prospects than they have had in a long time.
lowtechcyclist
@SFAW:
You’re right, I meant Empire Records, not Boardwalk Empire.
Kay
@Princess:
Was there anything that showed what frauds they all are than that ridiculous show of “concern” they put on? If you’re going to pretend to be interested in womens sports at least find out what her win/loss record is. I know nothing about sports but even I would look it up. I also loved how the Irish boxer came out and sort of casually mentioned she beat the “man” in ’22. They “walked right into that”, as I have heard they say in boxing :)
BlueGuitarist
@Kay:
Excellent.
Do you have an opinion about Paloma De La Fuente, the 19 year old U Toledo student running for Ohio state senate? Rs made district about 10 points more Republican for incumbent Theresa Gavarone, so not expecting flipping the seat, but can Paloma gotv among young people whose votes might matter up ballot?
kalakal
@charon:
The backing track
Alan Parsons Project
Princess
@Baud: They’re not going to win that battle in the aggregate. It takes a lot of money to support that “traditional” lifestyle and all those kids in the style that is being pushed. Most single income families can’t do it (and never could, not at the level we see on Instagram.
WereBear
@Baud: Countered by all the women in red states who were rudely dumped, evicted, and get no child support. They are on social media, too. Warning the young and foolish.
Not all will listen, but women expect more from men this century. Like regular hygiene practices, helping with household chores, keeping a job, and being treated as a person in their own right.
Two out of four will not cut it for many of today’s young women, and more power to them.
Kay
@BlueGuitarist:
I don’t know anything – I’ll look it up though – thanks.
Baud
@Princess:
@WereBear:
I certainly hope you’re right.
Layer8Problem
@BlueGuitarist: The libertarians are going to have to work on their candidate’s name recognition. When I saw ‘Oliver’ the first thing I thought was “Oliver? Oliver who? How about Susan Oliver? Nah, she was in that first pilot for Star Trek the Original Series, couldn’t be her. Might as well be Oliver Wendell Douglas.”
TBone
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: 😆
Eolirin
@Baud: Trust me, if Harris is president, we will suddenly have the best economy ever for most dems, and it’ll still be a diaster from all Republicans.
The media can convince people of things are bad only because people have no idea how to evaluate the fundamentals of an economy, and don’t connect their current status to the status of the economy as a whole. The question of whether you’re doing personally okay is so much more often a yes than the question of whether the economy is doing okay. And this is true for both sides of the political divide.
So grocery and gas prices become proxies, even if increases to wages offset them.
And the affect of the president, the vibes the media is able to create through what stories they push, become truth. Biden being old has an effect on people’s view of the economy. The constant, recession about day now, inflation is terrible drumbeat has an effect.
The only parts of the economy that’re really going poorly are health care costs, housing costs, and the costs of higher education. We do need to fix those. They’re especially fucking up young people. But we’re finally on the right track on jobs and wages after 50+ years of things going in the wrong direction outside of a handful of industries. We’ve got a manufacturing boom and lower inflation rates than the rest of the developed world.
Means nothing. We’re in a post-truth environment on economy and crime stats. It’s all vibes.
kalakal
@Betty Cracker:
It’s looking like it shouldn’t be too bad in yours and my respective locations but could be a hurricane when it makes landfall in the panhandle. At the moment looks like it’ll be no biggie but it rapid intensification occurs then it could be very bad
Baud
I’ve said before, the country would be better off if the two parties weren’t so divided along demographic lines. That’s ultimately the future liberals want.
Eolirin
@Baud: Democratic party fractures is my bet.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Baud: Isn’t it weird that the guy whose catch phrase is “You’re fired!” says I’m the horrible boss?
Eolirin
@Baud: There’s a reason why the bear won.
Rusty
@The Thin Black Duke: I would argue that they aren’t just around the corner, they are already here, it just isn’t as obvious yet. The Supreme Court in 303 Creative said you can discriminate in proving services on first amendment grounds, so racial bias in public service provision is already here for certain classes of services. It’s not hard to see this extended to hiring. If I don’t have to provide services to the blacks and gays, why do I have to hire them? The college admissions case has already been extended to block scholarships based on race and ethnicity, farm aid aimed to correct past racial bias and more. At the same time the court has green lighted out sourcing government services like adoption and education, and allowing the outside group to discriminate. There is much more to come.
Chief Oshkosh
HCR’s August 2 essay on the Egyptian government giving the Trump campaign $10M when it was broke in 2016 (now being reported by WaPo) is pretty frustrating. The machinations were known by the FBI in 2017 and added to the Mueller brief. Mueller was winding down and so just “handed the Egypt investigation off to the U.S. attorney’s office in Washington, D C., where it appears then–attorney general William Barr killed it.” https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/august-2-2024?r=1yjc6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
It’s unclear to me when WaPo reporters knew of this (might’ve been as early as 2019, might’ve been last week), but someone in the post-Trump DOJ/FBI sure as fuck knew. I know, I know, we can’t expect a knight in shining armor to swoop in and save us, we need to vote! vote! vote!, etc, etc. But I think it’s reasonable to expect our institutions to protect the country against THE ONE FUCKING THING THAT SCARED “THE FOUNDING FATHERS” THE MOST – direct foreign influence on an election.
If not a knight in shining armor, I’d settle for group of FBI agents and DOJ attorneys in tailored pantsuits of appropriately muted colors…Hopefully Madam President Former-Calif_AG-SF_Prosecutor will make that happen. :)
Princess
@Eolirin: I’ve been thinking for a while that this election is going to end in the fracture of the party that loses. And the other party may follow suit not long after. It may look more like a full realignment than a fracture but that’s what it will be.
Eolirin
@Baud: Yeah, and that might start having an effect over the next ten years if we can keep those policies in effect, but they won’t help us with people who have already gone dead ender, at least not quickly. So there’s a whole generation there that’s been left behind and is very bitter about it. And there’s a cultural groundswell around it that’ll take some time to start to break apart.
Kay
@Princess:
It’s more than immediate budgeting concerns too. What I see in the practice is they CAN economize and do it on one income but what they can’t do is put anything back for their retirements or large purchases. That just isn’t going to work. It means they’re paycheck to paycheck forever and it doesn’t get cheaper as kids get older. The US isn’t set up to allow a working or middle class parent to stay home with children and do anything other than survive month to month. They’re so vulnerable. Inflation goes up and they’re on the brink of disaster. It would be a good plan if everyone just died at sixty once the kids were raised. “The other part” of this traditional lifestyle they want to return to is you move in with your kids when you’re old. You need that back end.
Eolirin
@Princess: Well, if we’re the losing party, fracturing won’t really matter because we won’t have any more real elections.
But yes.
Baud
@Eolirin:
I don’t want to debate it, but I don’t buy it. There’s zero reason economically disgruntled people should be anti-Dem rather than equally divided. Social issues are always paramount IMHO.
The Thin Black Duke
@Eolirin: So–we’re doomed?
WereBear
@Baud: Let’s just say, for a LOT of people, Trump & Vance are an excellent target for a whole LOT of payback.
Pent up demand.
NotMax
@WereBear
Decry and demand.
;)
Eolirin
@Baud: We’re taking just about uneducated, mostly white, young men, so we’re not taking a proper cross section of economically disgruntled people. This is effectively a social grouping, not just a purely economic one. There’s a degree of social sorting going on.
Like, we’ve lost incels by a huge amount, for obvious reasons. That’s driven by their bitterness about not having women behave the way they want and not being willing to change their behaviors to get what they want. That creates a culture that then has a much easier time recruiting from disaffected, highschool educated only, men. They have fewer dating options and they’re more likely to get stuck in low wage more rural areas. Alt right communities give them a permission structure that tells them they don’t need to be the ones to improve.
It all builds to a significant shift in voting patterns for that demographic group.
Broader prosperity by itself won’t fix that problem, because there are cultural issues as well, but it’s a necessary component of the fix. It makes it harder to recruit them.
Eolirin
@The Thin Black Duke: Hell no. We just can’t rely on policy driven turnout.
Betty
@Betty Cracker: This is a very frightening hurricane season. Our area is most vulnerable between mid-August and mid-September. We have many weeks ahead of watching the tropical waves come across the Atlantic.
WereBear
@Eolirin: On the other hand, as Goldwater observed in the Fifties, you get a bunch of unhinged nasty people in, and they take over.
It’s their nature.
Eolirin
@WereBear: Yeah, I mean, that’s what eventually drives everyone else out.
We just need to survive long enough.
The Thin Black Duke
@Eolirin: Of course not. But I think political activists who are pragmatic and don’t rely on Hollywood fantasies as reliable strategies understand that there’s a lot of moving parts when you’re trying to get shit done. Clyburn knew what he was doing when he endorsed Biden years ago. Politics is the Art of the Possible, after all.
TBone
@Chief Oshkosh: you articulated why my 5am comment at #5 woke me right the fuck up before coffee kicked in this morning. Thank you.
Geminid
@Kay: A friend of mine sttempted to break into amateur stand up comedy. He’s a studier, so he researched the various precepts of successful standup comedy.
One was, “If you can get the women in the audience behind you, the men will follow.”
Gvg
@Baud: every demographic has their nuts contingent, the 27%. When the really active racist collapse into beaten apathy again, the 27% will drift over by themselves I think.
If the country gets distracted by some other event that causes racism to drop down in urgency, it will also “help” in a way but I am talking about a new crisis and a big one so don’t wish for it. On the other hand, things keep happening and we don’t control it, so I sort of think in time, something will.
Gvg
@Baud: it’s not equal everywhere in the country. Kay talks about how great it is where she is. In Florida, in my part, I am kind of worried. My town seems to be shrinking. We are building housing, but shopping and businesses are going under. I don’t see the jobs as much as she reports. We have a stupid Governor who refused money to build roads and things we need and hospitals…so that may be part of it but it’s been happening for quite a while.
It not the same everywhere so naturally people have different opinions. Most people assume their experience is typical though, and don’t wonder why someone else thinks differently.
UncleEbeneezer
Republicans will never abandon White Supremacy (and Patriarchy) because they are true believers. They believe in it more than the Jesus they claim to worship. The only way to truly appeal to Black voters in America is to do things that no Republican will ever be willing to do. Respect and understand Blackness, acknowledge Systemic Racism, listen, treat Black People as equals, etc. These things go against everything that is in Republicans’ souls. They can try and fake doing these things, but they are terrible at it (just look at their idiotic takes about Harris’ blackness). And Black People are very good at sussing out even the best attempts to hoodwink them. I just don’t see that changing any time soon.
lowtechcyclist
@Eolirin:
But don’t they see the “help wanted” signs? Aren’t they finding they need to book vacations a lot earlier than they used to because of all the demand? Doesn’t any of that sort of thing register?
That’s the part that gets me, because this is the sort of thing, on top of how they themselves are doing, that ordinary people can see and encounter that are symptoms of a booming economy.
Or house prices. Yeah, that sucks, but a lot of people must be able to afford to purchase all those unreasonably expensive homes, otherwise prices would come down. Even what’s going wrong is on account of things on the whole going right.
It’s all right in front of people, that the economy is doing really well. But who are they going to believe, the media or their lying eyes? Unfortunately, we know the answer. Crazy.
lowtechcyclist
@Eolirin:
I’ll take the other side of that bet. We’ve just been through three and a half years of the Democratic Party being by far the most unified than it’s been anytime in the past half-century. The days of throwing this or that minority group (blacks, women, gays, trans, etc.) under the bus to win WWC votes are pretty much gone. (We’ll win them over with more jobs, unions, and higher pay, or not at all. Probably the latter for most of them, but such is life.) I just don’t see what the Dems would fracture over.
Geminid
@Gvg: There is a lot of economic growth now across the border in Georgia; South Carolina and North Carolina too. It’s largely driven by new manufacturing facilities.
Florida has been left out of this boom. There are probably several reasons for this, and one could be demographic. Last year, when a Korean car manufacturer chose a site in the Savanna, Georgia area for a new plant instead of a Southside Virginia location, Virginia’s Cardinal News interviewed industrial development experts on the reasons why. One was that the median age around the Virginia site was 44 years, while the population where the Georgia site was projected was almost 10 years younger
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Kay: I had a weird Christian cult try to recruit me that way. It finally dawned on me that I was never going to go on a date alone with this girl, and her “friends” were weird, so I gave up. But it probably works on a sizable percentage of young men.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
44 is a pretty high median age! Southside Virginia is the one part of the state that I’ve never spent any time in, but it’s mostly small towns and rural areas, isn’t it? The sorts of areas that you’d expect young people to move away from as soon as they could, because all the opportunities were elsewhere.
Putting a factory there might help to start reversing that, but the problem is getting someone to go first.
DFH
Amazing that a paper who employs Ms. Petri also employs headline writers who put out “Kamala must pivot and defend herself against a known liar who cannot comprehend being bi-racial”. I canceled WaPo this week.
catclub
Did someone just say Katrina?
catclub
@Eolirin: I still say it this way: “The economy, unemployment, interest rates, and the stock market are far better NOW, than when Ronald Reagan was saying it is morning in America.”
I think that would make people realize it is good.
bluefoot
@Princess:
My 20-something nephew has been telling me for years that in many MMPORGs there is right-wing and incel-type propaganda and active recruiting to groups. Even within otherwise harmless games there are players that are there to essentially alter discourse and recruit. There’s apparently a huge semi-underground structure to convert boys starting as young as possible by first dialing up their resentment and sense of entitlement. He said he first saw it when he was maybe 14?
So I’m not surprised that there is a decent percentage of Black or other minority men who can’t bring themselves to vote for Harris or are actively pro-Trump.
Glidwrith
@WereBear: Honestly, in the young men that lean in Shitgibbon’s direction, I’m not seeing holding a job or personal hygiene either.
artem1s
@TBone: forget TCF. Prescott Bush is the one I’d pick. His spawn of thieves and liars lead to repeated interference by foreign nationals in US elections.No Prescott Bush, no S&L crash in the eighties, no Ronnie Raygun and the grand compromise of Poppy choosing to run the WH thru a puppet POTUS, no Southern strategy, no interference with the release of Iran Hostages, no Iran Contra, no cocaine pipeline from Noriega to the US, no War on Drugs that took the AG/FBI focus off Russian mobsters flooding the country after the fall of the Soviet Union, no Cheney making deals with the Saudis prior to the 2000 election, no Cheney making deals with energy companies prior to the 2000 election (someone in last night threads thought Cheney brought nothing the W ticket – he was the ticket), no O’Connor ruling on Bush v Gore, no Bandar Bush, no Rice ignoring the August memo, no 9/11, no Roberts ruling on Citizen’s United v Clinton. no overturning preclearance, no ruling that bribery isn’t bribery. It’s always been clear to me that the Bush Crime family made foreign interference the center of all their campaigns. They normalized it. They put the processes in place to keep the GOP reliant on it in order to win elections without the popular vote. Get rid of Prescott and Trump can’t happen. He’s a symptom, not the disease.
The GOP leadership hooked TCF up with foreign nationals who had money and were willing. They loved that he was already in debt to Putin.
bluefoot
@Rusty:
I’m already seeing this. My industry has had a lot of layoffs this last year, and it’s been striking which people of which demographics have gotten hired the most quickly, and which have been able to get hired at a higher level (no matter their experience).
K-Mo
@Princess: Yes. I love the way she stops to smile and chuckle amid her take downs. Her words are heavy but she’s keeping it light. The “say it to my face clip” was awesome. She’s not taking shit but she’s not angry about it either. She’s under control.
She needs to keep it up.
K-Mo
@Eolirin: Yep. Underlying the whole thing: we can call them weird now because the culture has shifted and we are in the majority. The people who rail against cats and birth control are weirdos and should go away.
K-Mo
@SFAW: I feel like Democrats should work harder to get a basic message out based on the actual facts of the last 30 years. In short: Clinton, Obama and Biden all cleaned up huge messes left by Bush, Bush and Trump. To the extent that things were good under Trump it was pretty much a straight line continuation of the Obama boom. Until it definitely wasn’t.
artem1s
@Kay:
Great news for Kaptur but Harris is down 10 points state wide. Too many ‘independents’, never Trumpers, Kusinich babies, and Berners breaking for brain worms and Russian spies (really you’re still going to pull the lever for Stein?). Johnson’s 20K vote were the reason Ohio went for TCF in 2016.
There is just no talking some people out of wasting their votes.
K-Mo
@Eolirin: sad but true. Let’s fix it.
K-Mo
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: He had so much turnover in his administration it was bewildering. Ketchup everywhere.
Gretchen
@TBone: it’s interesting that when Biden referred to al-Sisi by his nickname, the press was all over it thinking he confused al-Sisi with the Mexican president (he hadn’t). Doesn’t of articles describing him as confused. Egyptians refer to al-Sisi as Mexsisi to avoid trouble about critizing their president, Biden knew this and referred to it, and instead of credit for his detailed knowledge, they all ran with the idea that his senility confused the two. But Trump accepts $10 million from al-Sisi and it’s fine. One little WaPo article and that’s the end of it.
Gretchen
@K-Mo: Every Republican president since Hoover has presided over a recession, but people still think Republicans are better for the economy.
artem1s
@WereBear:
From what I’m seeing here in Ohio, I’m pretty sure TCF campaign has gotten it’s hands on the W playbook they used in 2004. They courted ultra conservative Black churches/pastors by promising to put anti-same sex marriage on the ballot in key states. There were some who felt that Dems coming around on gay marriage and putting LGBTQ issues in their platform was going push aside Black issues. That’s why Clyburn’s endorsement was so important for Biden. There was documentary about the W campaign making promises to never over turn DOMA that came out after the election and then there was a lot of press about conservative Christians who felt the Roberts court betrayed that promise with Obergfell. So when TCF kept the GOP promise to overturn Roe that resonated with those who felt betrayed by W. In short some of this shift back to the GOP by Black men is not just due to misogyny but also homophobia and transphobia, etc.
TBone
@Gretchen: good eye on that naming thing, I missed that It’s so mind boggling that that
manutter lump of putrid horseshit is, to this very day, still walking free instead of stinking up a prison cell somewhere.TBone
@artem1s: I bow to your superior choice that eliminates a ton of heartache, misery, and death!
BellyCat
Nah…. Young men have one and only one primary goal. Their ambition is held in check solely by young women’s deft use of the power to “hold out”!
brantl
I hope Stumpy doesn’t take Petri seriously, I would hate if he wasn’t out there, boning it up as much as possiblle.