Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Somebody needs to explain to DeSantis that nobody needs to do anything to make him look bad.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Everybody saw this coming.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

The gop couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Dead end MAGA boomers crying about Talyor Swift being a Dem is my kind of music. Turn it up.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

You are here: Home / Elections 2024 / Sunday Evening Open Thread: Veepstakes – Josh Shapiro

Sunday Evening Open Thread: Veepstakes – Josh Shapiro

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I was gonna post more about potential VP picks this week, but… it’s been kinda busy!

Governor Shapiro’s been all over social media this weekend, which may or may not be a leading indicator.


 
At the moment, he certainly seems to be the TV Pundits’ Pick, for better or worse:


Sunday Evening Open Thread: Veepstakes - Josh Shapiro

Okay, Shapiro’s not universally admired…

Reader Interactions

352Comments

  1. 1.

    Kirk

    In the end I don’t care who she chooses, I don’t really know enough about them all.

    But I admit to twinges of hesitance at the idea of choosing the preference of Scarborough and Silver.

  3. 3.

    Lapassionara

    The very wise former president, I believe his name is Donald Trump, just told me recently that Vice Presidential picks don’t matter in an election, “100 %”.

    would he lie?

  7. 7.

    hueyplong

    But Shapiro only won big because the GOPers ran a nut case, whereas here…

    Oh.

    Nevermind.

  8. 8.

    SuzieC

    Open thread if anyone is still interested.

     

    Cat Ladies for Kamala, 7 pm 8-4-24.

    #CLAWSOUT2024.

    Mottoes we’re here with our claws out; we’re not going back to the alleys.

    11,300 cat ladies, $256K raised.

  9. 9.

    oldster

    Kelly’s out, in my book, because we cannot lose a Senator.

    I kinda prefer Walz, but I can live with Shapiro, esp. if he’ll bring PA with him.

    As the tweet said: “If Shapiro gets us more EC votes than anyone else, I support him and if he doesn’t, then I don’t. That is my opinion on Shapiro.”

  10. 10.

    Andrya

    I’m on Team Walz.

    The problem with Shapiro is that the issue of Gaza has the potential to split the Democratic coalition, and quite likely to hand Michigan to the Republicans.  In my opinionated opinion, Biden went way too far in condoning what Israel is doing to civilians in Gaza- and I think one reason that Harris is doing so much better is that she has appeared more even handed (though it’s early days yet).

    Shapiro endorsed, or at least condoned, the Republican congresscritters who leaned on university presidents to define pro-Palestinian protests as inherently anti-Semitic and equivalent to Nazism-  and pressured them to discipline/expel students who participate in pro-Palestine protests.

    And I say this as someone who cares about Israel-  but I think the zero sum thinking of the current Israeli government (“Crush the Palestinians!  We will rule them forever!”) is not only wrong and unjust, but in the long term will inevitably erode Israeli democracy.

    ETA:  correct a typo/misspelling.

  11. 11.

    CaseyL

    The usual suspects are lining up on social media to trash Shapiro. This has the (probably unintended) effect of making me like him more. He has an impressive record as Governor, that’s for sure.

    But “favorite son” doesn’t seem to be a thing anymore. I don’t see how putting Shapiro on the ticket gives Harris more of a chance to take PA.

  12. 12.

    Ken

    he certainly seems to be the TV Pundits’ Pick

    And we certainly don’t want to annoy them. They can be so petty.

  13. 13.

    Splitting Image

    I liked the arguments in favour of Shapiro:

    1) He’s an extremely popular governor in the most important swing state
    2) The people with the worst political instincts in the world think he’d be a bad pick.

    …in the opinion of Nate Silver, offered without a hint of irony.

  15. 15.

    George

    There is zero proof that Shapiro would “nail down Pennsylvania.” Any claim to that effect is based on wishful thinking. Yet even if he did “nail down Pennsylvania,” would he help in Georgia? North Carolina? Michigan? Wisconsin? Nevada? Arizona?  He has been governor of Pennsylvania for just over 18 months.  It’s hard to get much of a track record in that short amount of time.

  16. 16.

    UncleEbeneezer

    If Harris picks Shapiro, for the love of God, please pie/ignore anyone who wants to spend the next 90 days bashing him.  If we are really serious about UNITY and winning in November, that would be the true, UNITY move for us all to make.

    Roe, Project 2025.  Our incredible, not-weird candidate, Kamala Harris!

    Hammer all of those, over and over and don’t get sucked into debating circular firing squads over the VP’s stances.

  19. 19.

    Sister Golden Bear

    My understanding is that research has pretty much disproved that VPs have any real effect on a presidential chances in the VP’s home state — which if Nate Silver still focused on numbers rather than vibes, he’d know.

    Regardless of Shapiro’s vs. Walz’s records, their ability to govern is far less important for winning the election is their ability to campaign. Walz seems like he’d be a great complement to Harris in that regard. Haven’t seen enough of Shapiro to compare. Shapiro does have an edge in the shallow optics part — he looks younger than Walz.

    But I trust Harris make a good decision.

  20. 20.

    BR

    Good that Keir Starmer isn’t mincing words about the far right:

    “Other minority communities singled out, Nazi salutes in the street, attacks on the police, wanton violence alongside racist rhetoric, so no, I won’t shy away from calling it what it is: far-right thuggery.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpwddpzyxpzo

  21. 21.

    CaseyL

    @Andrya:

    I have very little sympathy, or patience, with people who think throwing the election to Trump “because Gaza!” is a good idea.

    Trump’s son in law is already making plans to put seaside resorts in Gaza, just as soon as those pesky Palestinians are gone.

  22. 22.

    JoyceH

    @Andrya:

    I’m on Team Walz.

    Me too, if I got to pick. Walz was a TEACHER! He can address the insanity of the ‘war on woke’ and its impact on students and teachers. As for Shapiro, while he has many good qualities, his support for vouchers could tick off the teachers’ unions, which are a very sturdy pillar of the Democratic base.

  23. 23.

    BR

    @Sister Golden Bear: ​

    I’ve concluded that if we’re trying to do no harm, then probably we want to avoid Shapiro (because he will divide the party, fairly or unfairly) or Beshear (because he will come across as a bit amateurish).

    But ultimately she has to decide who can be the real partner she can trust with everything, and that can’t be determined by all of us watching from afar.

  24. 24.

    Anonymous At Work

    @CaseyL: And TFG’s team wined-and-dined Muslims at an ITALIAN restaurant (Maggiano’s is good but corporate chain) where half the menu is HARAM (pork, shellfish, squid, etc.).

    However, I think Michigan’s Arab community will withhold votes, since they don’t see daylight between TFG and Biden, and because TFG has done [for him] amazing work keeping the issue quiet.

  25. 25.

    Andrya

    @CaseyL:   If your people are facing ethnic cleansing in Gaza (the Netanyahu government has made several efforts for mass population transfers from Gaza) and permanent Jim Crow on the West Bank, the question of who gets the real estate after population expulsion probably doesn’t seem particularly important.

    My concern is not that Arab-Americans in Michigan will vote for TCFG- it’s that, despairing (“Neither party will do ANYTHING for us!”) they will stay home and not vote at all.

  26. 26.

    tcblue

    @ssdd: shapiro outperformed one of the worst candidates in PA history. i’d not put too much stock on the comparison to biden in PA

  27. 27.

    RaflW

    Nate Silver talking about other people with “the worst” political instincts is … something.

  28. 28.

    Burnspbesq

    @Andrya:

    I share your concerns about Shapiro and Gaza.

    I also worry that his stance on school vouchers is going to alienate teachers’ unions, which are an essential part of the Dem coalition.

  29. 29.

    bmoak

    If picking a VP candidate from a swing state was so important, you think it would have happened more than once in the past 30 years or so.  Paul Ryan is the only swing state VP nominee I can think of in that time.

  30. 30.

    Splitting Image

    @BR:

    But ultimately she has to decide who can be the real partner she can trust with everything, and that can’t be determined by all of us watching from afar.

    This, basically. I don’t think people were particularly enthusiastic about either Biden being picked in 2008 or Harris being picked in 2020, but they both worked out great for the people who did the picking.

  32. 32.

    RaflW

    I just want it decided. I personally don’t think Pete B. is really in the top three (if I’m wrong, here’s my concession: ok!).

    My ranking:
    Walz
    Shapiro
    Kelly

    My vote in the fall: Harris + VP. No wavering.

  34. 34.

    Matt McIrvin

    The further left hate, hate, HATE Shapiro and will probably do their best to demonize Kamala Harris like Hillary Clinton redux if she picks him.

    I know Shapiro doesn’t really deserve it, I know these people are assholes and not to be trusted in the first place. But it’s a source of specific grief we don’t need.

  35. 35.

    CaseyL

    @Andrya: ​

    My concern is not that Arab-Americans in Michigan will vote for TCFG- it’s that, despairing (“Neither party will do ANYTHING for us!”) they will stay home and not vote at all.

    “Neither party will do anything for us!” – where do these people live? Do they have union jobs? Do they have health insurance? Are any of them women of child-bearing age? Are any of them darker than lily-white?

    Do they spend any time at all contemplating what their lives – their lives, here in the US – not their relatives in Gaza, but themselves and their spouses and children here – will be like under Trump?

    “Neither Party will do anything for us…” is a dumb fucking thing to think.

  36. 36.

    Starfish

    @RaflW: If she picks Kelly, then we can have a Space Nerds for Harris/Kelly call, and Kelly can call all his favorite astronauts to be on it.

  37. 37.

    hueyplong

    @RaflW: And this proper trashing of Silver hasn’t even yet included the fact that Silver got all famous by supposedly eschewing “instincts” altogether, good or bad, instead just crunching numbers like some analytics guy making fun of baseball GMs for relying on “eye tests” when judging the value of players.

    Just continuing the subject of Silver for one comment feels like a personal failure.

    Anyway, I’m on team WhoeverHarrisPicks

  38. 38.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    Supposedly (via upyernoz, a Philly-based blog) there’s going to be a VP “reveal rally” in Philly on Monday, with hints that it’s Shapiro.

    Conventional wisdom is that VP picks can only hurt; most have no effect. In many ways my preference is for Beshear, just for how he could give Vance a thumping for being a fake. That’s a case of helping Trump’s VP be a negative, although he might not need much help.

  39. 39.

    Lyrebird

    @JoyceH: @Burnspbesq: FWIW some DKos commenters from PA recommended this article about the voucher issue, not that it answers everything.  He did support them and also get a record-breaking increase in the public school budget (not tapped by vouchers) through the PA state house.

    @BR: I’ve concluded that if we’re trying to do no harm, then probably we want to avoid Shapiro (because he will divide the party, fairly or unfairly) or Beshear (because he will come across as a bit amateurish).

    I flat out love how you put this.  I might even say “fairly AND unfairly” because there’s likely to be some of both.  The media “village” will do whatever it can to focus on any disarray in the Democratic camp, and okay I believe they try to magnify it but if y’all don’t, I am fine, I don’t have a crystal ball or truth serum.

    The clearest personal bond I’ve seen was between MVP and Roy Cooper, so I dunno.  I am very pro-Walz right now, and pro Queen Latifah, aka U N I T Y.

  40. 40.

    Anonymous At Work

    @eclare: Sexual Assault settlement against an advisor, $295k settlement, done quiet.  Haven’t read much more than that, certainly not enough to have opinion on it.

  41. 41.

    Starfish

    @CaseyL: My mom very much thinks like this. She was not going to vote in the Biden/Trump election, but she said she would vote for Harris. I asked her what her Trumpy Texas friend (also middle eastern) was going to do, and she said that she hadn’t asked her.

    I told my husband that my mom actively discouraged us from voting because she said “Then you will have to serve jury duty,” and she really did not want to do that because she had a bad experience as a witness in a trial.

  42. 42.

    Anonymous At Work

    @hueyplong: Silver also created the model that best fit the prior elections and this worked (scarily so!) in 2008.  1 Toss-up State and within .1% of both vote totals.  The modeling didn’t work as well down ballot in 2010 or at all in 2012.

    So, he’s trying to update the model into which he feeds the polling numbers.  That is hard for one-instance events.

    But yes, he forgot why “instincts” being so horrible gave him the original opening.  No data behind them.  Now, he’s making “gut reads” of one-time data “events” (not even a trend).

  43. 43.

    Jackie

    @hueyplong:

    But Shapiro only won big because the GOPers ran a nut case

    I watched Chris Christie this morning, and when he said if Shapiro gets the nod, it would be TCFG’s fault for endorsing a lunatic candidate. I think everyone – including me – had a coffee spewing reaction! 😂

    If, indeed, Shapiro is the D presumptive VP candidate, TCFG’s epic meltdown will be…epic!🤭

  44. 44.

    Another Scott

    @Starfish: He apparently posted (and deleted) something that said his mission is “… serving Arizonans …”.

    I think it would be dangerous to pick a senator (any senator), so I don’t expect it to be Kelly, but we’ll know soon enough I guess.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  45. 45.

    Lyrebird

    @CaseyL: “Neither Party will do anything for us…” is a dumb fucking thing to think.

    and an attitude the ol’ troll farms like to promote.  I am sorry I don’t have the link, but FWIW some Michigan leaders of Muslim voting groups didn’t say this, they said we’re protesting the Dems because it’s vitally important, and no we’re not planning to go protest or discuss with the GOP because currently there is no point (not expecting anything to come of it).  Pretty darn insightful, clear, etc.

  46. 46.

    cmorenc

    Much as I like Waltz, Shapiro probably has the edge toward making a more tangible difference in Pa and a few other swing states.  High approval in a closely divided state (Pa).

  47. 47.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @CaseyL: I’m not in favor of losing the election over Gaza either.  I don’t know much about Shapiro and I’m inclined to defer to Harris’s judgment, however my first impressions of Shapiro aren’t great.

    Granted, these are only first impressions and recent history makes me leery of jumping on the fastest, strongest messaging as anointed truth.

    Still, the comment that stood out to me was comparing campus protestors to the KKK. Not only is it repugnant, it suggests Shapiro likes riding these vicious media narratives for position (eyes the Fetterman/parole board story above).

    Still, should she pick him.  I’ll do a true deep dive before making any firm opinions. And I’ll vote for the ticket, may just have some bearing on enthusiasm. And it will be on the margins where we “lose the election over Gaza.”

  49. 49.

    BR

    @Lyrebird:

    Yeah, you’re right — it’s fairly *and* unfairly. This is the big leagues and if we’re serious about winning I think we have to consider unfair damage (horseshoe left grifters who just want to find a wedge to attack Dems) to the party as well as fair damage (teachers unions and college students who might be less enthusiastic). Kay does keep saying that we need someone who can speak to the business moderates in Ohio (and I assume PA), and I know Shapiro can do that. I bet Pritzker can do that even better given his business background, though he isn’t as good of a speaker. I dunno about the others.

  50. 50.

    Andrya

    @CaseyL:   I’m a Scottish-American, and I strongly identify with my Scottish heritage.  I still have relatives in Scotland.   If the British government was subjecting their Scottish population to ethnic cleansing, starvation, mass bombing of civilians, bombing of food aid trucks, and Jim Crow, and both US political parties were condoning/supporting this, I would say “no one will do anything for us” and I would not be stupid.  The other issues you mention would weigh very little in the balance against something very close to genocide.

  53. 53.

    Princess

    @Starfish: If Kelly is going to pre-empty Harris’s announcement like this, it’s a good reason not to choose him (fwiw, I don’t think that’s what he’s doing.)

  54. 54.

    rk

    I 95 is my daily commute to work. The collapse happened at just the right spot to make my commute an unhappy one. I thought I was done for months if not years (because God knows construction seems to go on for several lifetimes in PA). But, in the blink of an eye it seems, it was fixed. That was impressive. He said it would be done quickly and it was done I believe before time.

  56. 56.

    Martin

    I’ll admit, I don’t think the steady flow of negative news about Shapiro is particularly confidence-inducing.  Feels like his stock is dropping. Between him and Walz, Walz feels like a much better fit for what I think Harris’ pitch to voters is going to be.

    In the spirit of the continuing insistence that the VP can help carry a state, I’m going to suggest that Harris pick a spell casting running mate. It’s a much simpler strategy and pays bigger dividends. Maybe Shadowheart. I know she’s a half-elf which kind of amplifies that whole biracial thing we have going on in the ticket, and another female, but I think her utility spell potential is too high to overlook.

  57. 57.

    CaseyL

    @Starfish: 

    “Mid-Eastern” covers a lot of territory. It is a truth hardly ever mentioned, but most of the Arab countries have never lifted a finger to help Palestinians – unless you consider supporting and arming Hamas and Hezbollah to be “helpful” – because the Palestinians are a useful proxy-enemy against Israel.

    I don’t think that the average, say, Jordanian living in the US – particularly one who is already a Trumpy – cares about Gazans except as a rhetorical device to wield against Democrats.

  59. 59.

    Ivan X

    Hi! I am going to irritate everyone.

    a) I don’t know anything

    b) you don’t know anything

    c) neither of us know anything

    so, c) is my conclusion. I support whomever she/her campaign chooses.

    But, with that said:

    d) Skeletons. SKELETONS. I think whomever gets chosen, at least in part, is the one with the least weaponizable past. No one seems to be talking about this, and we’ll never know, but isn’t it likely?

    e) I still maintain that VP pick doesn’t help, can only hurt.

    f) have been drinking

    GO DEMS is all I have to say. Speculating on VP pick is a fun activity for us political junkies while we try to assuage our nerves, but see a) and b) above.

  60. 60.

    Anonymous At Work

    @hueyplong: As much as I disliked seeing Senator Franken disappear without a trace, it was the right call then and it absolutely should be an issue for Harris/Shapiro now.  There cannot be any “bothsides” on the issue.  No “womenamirite?” and no “everyone does it” from Matt Lauer, et alia.

  61. 61.

    BR

    @Martin:

    Yeah — someone who has this many people out to shiv him is someone who has accumulated enemies in a very short time in public life.

    Walz seems to have the opposite — people coming out of the woodwork to praise him. The only negative thing I’ve seen is progressives in MN who grumble that there was an even more progressive option in the primary and he won over her.

    It would be funny if she picks Pritzker, who has been on all the lists and nobody has paid any attention to.

  63. 63.

    Starfish

    @CaseyL: I agree that the stance is generally to send money, but who is to say what money is going to fund terrorist and what money is going to fund food for a population living under siege? Money is fungible after all. The way that all Gazans have been painted as “Hamas” is pretty bad.

  64. 64.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Burnspbesq: Suing an advisor to the governor unless it was clearly outside work means you are suing the Government [lawyers] of the State, and you are out-gunned unless your bank account has 9+ 0’s in it.

    Don’t assume that a settlement made and accepted was on equitable terms.  That’s where an actual journalist and scooplet journalists can pull things apart.

  65. 65.

    CaseyL

    @Andrya:

    If you can’t imagine how much worse your own life, and those of your nearest and dearest, would be under an openly fascist government versus one that is trying its best to build back US democracy and economic fairness (however bad its foreign policy is), then I don’t know what to say.

  67. 67.

    dmsilev

    @SuzieC: I suspect you’ll enjoy this story in today’s LA Times:

    At CatCon, some pounce at JD Vance over ‘childless cat ladies’ remark

    The annual gathering of cat owners at the Pasadena Convention Center, known as CatCon, was underway late Saturday morning.

    Inside the center’s large ballroom and exhibit space, thousands of attendees dressed in costumes or wore cat ears, furry tails and shirts with hiss-terical puns as they strolled and gawked at hundreds of exhibition stands selling cat-related merchandise and products.

    But amid the sea of feline aficionados, 43-year-old Shannon Peace stood out for a different reason — her shirt. Printed on the front, it read: “Childless Cat Ladies for Kamala.”

    I walked by the convention center this morning, just before the doors opened, and there were a lot of cat people waiting in line to get in.

  68. 68.

    Percysowner

     

    My heart is with Buttigeig, because I would love to see him debate Vance, or Player to be Named Later, if Trump dumps Vance, but I acknowledge that is probably a bit TOO much diversity for this election.

    My candidate is Walz. I think he could bring a good balance to the ticket. He seems to have a real “down home” feeling. You know, the kind of guy you want to get a beer with, since THAT was once a big criteria for elected office. He has gotten good attention and I just like him.

    In the end, I trust the Harris campaign to pick the right VP. At least I’m pretty sure, she’s not going to call her daughters and ask them who they think she should pick and if she does, I’m pretty sure they won’t say “The guy who will put the most money in our pockets”, which was pretty much how Vance got in.

  69. 69.

    wjca

    @bmoak: If picking a VP candidate from a swing state was so important, you think it would have happened more than once in the past 30 years or so.

    Basically, in 1960 LBJ delivered Texas for Kennedy.**  And so a received wisdom was born.  Facts since have not shaken that.

    ** Arguably Illinois was more critical.  But “Mayor Daley voted the graveyards”, while also popular at the time, just didn’t have staying power.

  70. 70.

    Chet Murthy

    @CaseyL: @Andrya: When I naturalized, I forswore any foreign allegiances.  Frankly, if I cannot prioritize the welfare of my fellow Americans, then why am I an American?  Why don’t I go back to India (or wherever I think my real allegiances lie)?

    If these Palestinian-Americans actually think that America is this awful, that they’re not willing to do even the -least- bit of work to try to preserve and improve our country, then really, why are they here?

    I remember my oath of naturalization.  Do they? [and yes, some of them are natural-born citizens; that’s in a way just as bad: natural-born citizens are not required to do anything to retain their American citizenship — nothing.]

  71. 71.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @UncleEbeneezer:

    If Harris picks Shapiro, for the love of God, please pie/ignore anyone who wants to spend the next 90 days bashing him.

    I’ve made it very clear he’s got core “issues” and yeah, I know VP doesn’t have any say in national edumacational policy and yeah, some people here like to ignore his veritable years of public education policy pronouncements that should be an anathema to any actual Dem (as opposed to the Loyal-Dems-But contingent in here).

    I don’t want him picked because the shadow of Arne Fucking Duncan as a *Dem* nominated Cabinet member still hurts (Hah!, I mentioned Duncan and gotta hope Watergirl doesn’t see it), but if that happens, I’ll do what I always do, I’ll listen to those actual Dem constituencies, in this case national public education groups and unions and go with what they say.

    If, as you linked to in other threads, if they’re good with it publicly, I’m good with it publicly, aka, no bashing from this quarter.

  72. 72.

    Jackie

    @Snarki, child of Loki:

    Conventional wisdom is that VP picks can only hurt; most have no effect.

    Pence gave evangelists permission to vote for the pussy-grabbing  CFG.

    But, otherwise I don’t recall a VP choice possibly helping get the Top Ticket elected.

  74. 74.

    brendancalling

    I rarely if ever agree with Atrios, but no on Josh, says this PA voter. I don’t like him on school vouchers, his Isrrael stance could cost us in Michigan, and the Ellen Greenberg story gives me the creeps.  I’m still hoping for Walz.

  75. 75.

    Princess

    Shapiro has high positives (could win us PA) and high potential negatives that others have outlined plus maybe makes it more likely we lose the governorship down the road . Wallz looks like Harris’s dad. Since Water Girl said it, I can’t unsee it. I really want her to choose someone with better optics. You may feel that’s shallow but we’re the party that just knifed the best president of my lifetime because, while the policy was great, the optics were terrible. So there’s no point getting squeamish now; embrace the shallow. How tall are the potential candidates? I don’t want anyone who towers over her.

    I’m still partial to Buttigeig and Pritzker.

  76. 76.

    Andrya

    @CaseyL:   I am very seriously concerned about the harm TIFG would do, and I will vote for Harris even if she picks Donald Duck as her VP nominee.  But opposing genocide is extremely important too.  I grew up in a household where Franklin D Roosevelt was second only to G-d:  but when I learned that he had turned back the SS St Louis, filled with Jewish people fleeing from the holocaust… I could never think the same way about FDR again.

  77. 77.

    Starfish

    @CaseyL: I think this is part of the thing. If you are thinking about Middle Eastern Americans, some of them have lived under some pretty terrible governments, and they know how to live in such an environment.

  78. 78.

    Scout211

    I had Vance as the VP choice for Trump since day one.  Then at the last minute I changed my prediction to Burgum because I thought Vance was too arrogant for Trump.

    In conclusion, I am really bad at political predictions.  Therefore, I will just have to trust the vetting team, Kamala Harris, her advisers and her campaign to make the best choice for her VP.

    However, I do reserve the right to tell everyone in the comments that I was right and you were all wrong.  And stop being so mean to me! 😉

  79. 79.

    Ule Stevenson

    @Andrya: This. 100% this. I would have said the same thing, but less eloquently. Walz or Beshear. All positives, no negatives.

  80. 80.

    Anonymous At Work

    @hueyplong: Oh yeah, but I was comparing a former aide to a political advisor making…what? 40k?  You can’t loan a client money or pre-pay for an expected settlement.  So, limited resources to hire an attorney and limited resources to live until things are settled.  Had a friend in workman’s comp for a decade who spent a decent bit of time couch-crashing as a result.

  82. 82.

    hueyplong

    @Andrya: FDR also recognized Franco’s regime in Spain, which was arguably uncool.

    So were you going to vote for America First GOPers, sit out the election, or vote for FDR?

  83. 83.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Scout211: Really? I had Noem even after the dog-killing stuff went public.  TFG hates dogs and his domestic agenda is full of needless death that needs someone with no compunction against mass murder.  And he’s weak to eye-candy.

  84. 84.

    Andrya

    @Chet Murthy:   Did anyone say that Arab-Americans do nothing to improve this country?  I would vehemently disagree.  I teach at a community college with a significant proportion of Arab-Americans in the student body, and my students, young as they are, do a lot of volunteer work to make this country better.  (Some have even roped in me to do volunteer work that I had not planned to do!)

    It’s perfectly OK for immigrants (or descendants of immigrants) to be ethically concerned for the people in their homeland.  Look at how generations of Irish-Americans, while fighting in America’s wars and doing their part to build the country, remained concerned about British tyranny in Ireland.

  85. 85.

    Starfish

    @Chet Murthy: This reminds me of a story. My sister lives in a neighborhood with a Palestinian American grocer. He already hated politicians and would put the faces of politicians (both American and Middle Eastern) on his floor so people could come in and walk on them. Anyway, as this war has gone on, his opposition to politicians has gotten stronger, and his pro-Palestine flags and such have become more. Anyway, Jewish people go to this man’s store to protest it because he is so extreme in his view. My sister worries about him.

  86. 86.

    Martin

    @BR: Part of the reason why I want Pete is that it would show that the campaign was listening to a very different part of the electorate. Pritzger hasn’t gotten any mentions either – I think he’s great, but there’s nothing distinctive there – he’s not the ‘more anything’ candidate. But the other 4 are all pundit fodder. Pete has this wholly distinct audience from the rest, and most pundits just dismiss him as too risky, and there’s a class of analysts/pundits that are screaming ‘every success you’ve had in the last 2 weeks came from taking risks, pick Pete’.

    So, Pete sort of represents my hope that Harris is maybe not so risk adverse as the rest of the party tends to be.

  87. 87.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @Anonymous At Work: Well, who knows? Perhaps Trump will back out on his pick and make another.

    I don’t know that it’s possible. But a stupid, self-interested Presidential candidate could convince himself it’s basically the same thing Biden just did.

  88. 88.

    cain

    @cmorenc: then he should stay there and keep it safe.

    If PA falls to GOP it will corrupt the institutions. I don’t know if there is any guarantee that he would be replaced by another D.

  89. 89.

    West of the Cascades

    I’m on Team Walz – mainly because of the joy he seems to bring to his work. I admire Beshear and Shapiro for their work as governors, and their earnestness, but having two people on the ticket who are genuinely having fun (including mocking the GOP ticket) might be the best antidote to the grimness and joylessness of Trump/Vance.

  90. 90.

    hueyplong

    @Anonymous At Work: Sorry to say that applies to all litigation on behalf of individuals.

    At settlement time, you have to tell them that even if they win, it could be on appeal for a couple of years.  They nearly always settle, and they should.

  92. 92.

    Chet Murthy

    @Andrya:

    Did anyone say that Arab-Americans do nothing to improve this country?  I would vehemently disagree.

    You did suggest by analogy that they would be justified to do exactly that (nothing):

    The other issues you mention would weigh very little in the balance against something very close to genocide.

    This is an election that will  decide the fate of our Republic.  An -American citizen- who decides to nope out b/c they think (howsoever justifiably) that all America’s political parties have it in for their ancestral homeland and family who live there, shouldn’t be here, shouldn’t be an American.  Being an American is supposed to come with -responsibilities- as well as -privileges-.  As I said, I remember my oath of naturalization.

  93. 93.

    BR

    @Martin: ​

    Pritzker in theory knows how to talk to business moderate types. I dunno how many of those voters there are in the swing states, but probably some in the suburbs.

  94. 94.

    piratedan

    not quite sure why so many people are freaking out about picking a Senator from AZ.

    Katie Hobbs is the Dem Gov of AZ and would pick another Dem to fill the seat.

    She has a good roster of possible choices.  Current Rep Stanton, fmr Rep O’Halloran, the mayors of Phoenix (Gallego, Ms.) or Tucson (Romero, Ms), AG Mayes or Sec of State Fontes…

    the GOP bench is running Ms. Lake, who just lost last year as a candidate for Governor, would she run again if she loses (as predicted to Gallego, Mr)?  If not her, who?  Biggs? Gosar? Crane? Schweikert?

    all of these people are toxic.

  95. 95.

    Belafon

    A comment about the last tweet: You don’t get to choose after the fact. You have to make a choice with incomplete information, so which one do you choose?

  97. 97.

    Martin

    @wjca: Analysis shows JFK would have won Texas anyway. The pundits just assumed a relationship that the data doesn’t support. There’s a book written about it, linked above.

    The place that they argue a VP pick could work based on the data would be a small state with a long standing public servant with broad approval. PA is neither a small state nor is Shapiro a longstanding public servant. Nobody fits the criteria.

  98. 98.

    Dagaetch

    My feeling is that the media is an opponent in this election. So the VP pick should be the person who gives the media the least ammunition, whether that’s scandals or just stories that focus on Democratic divisions rather than the true stakes of the election. And from what I know about the candidates so far, that means not Shapiro. Maybe that’s not fair, but hell, neither is life.​

  99. 99.

    Chet Murthy

    @Andrya:

    It’s perfectly OK for immigrants (or descendants of immigrants) to be ethically concerned for the people in their homeland.  Look at how generations of Irish-Americans, while fighting in America’s wars and doing their part to build the country, remained concerned about British tyranny in Ireland.

    The Oath of Naturalization (in part):

    I hereby declare, on oath, that I absolutely and entirely renounce and abjure all allegiance and fidelity to any foreign prince, potentate, state, or sovereignty, of whom or which I have heretofore been a subject or citizen; that I will support and defend the Constitution and laws of the United States of America against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same [….]

    It’s fine for somebody to have concern and care for people in foreign lands, esp. their family.  But their first allegiance is supposed to be to America and to their fellow citizens.  “to any foreign [….] state or sovereignty”.  That’s what it says.

  102. 102.

    Starfish

    @Dagaetch: I think she should pick someone who does not have sex with couches, but I could be persuaded to support someone who does have sex with couches if he was really good on Middle Eastern policy.

  103. 103.

    hueyplong

    @BR: Though it isn’t going to happen, I wish someone would tell Trump that Michelle Obama is under consideration because fatal apoplexy would be almost certain.

  105. 105.

    Martin

    @Martin: I’ll add, given there is pretty conclusive evidence that a VP pick doesn’t help carry their home state, I feel pretty confident rejecting the opinion of anyone being paid to do political analysis who are putting up names based on them helping to carry a state.

    There’s not a lot of stuff in politics that is determinative, but there’s a decent bit that disproves claims of determinative relationships. It’s not a lot to read in total, the least the people paid to do this could do is read it.

  106. 106.

    Dagaetch

    @BR: ​heh. In what I consider to be a true sign of her high intelligence, she has made clear she will not run for office.

  107. 107.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @Starfish: If you didn’t dry hump something inanimate as a kid, you weren’t living.

    Still, it’s weird to be embarrassed about it when you’re called out…

  108. 108.

    tam1MI

    @The Kropenhagen Interpretation:

    my first impressions of Shapiro aren’t great.

    Everything I have heard about him makes me think he is Andrew Cuomo 2.0.

    Still, the comment that stood out to me was comparing campus protestors to the KKK.

    It’s like Hillary’s “deplorables” comment – he was trying to differentiate between bad faith protestors and good faith protestors.  But the truncated quote is just so sexy and irresistible to the MSM they are going repeat it ad nauseum as long as Shapiro is in the mix for/is the V.P.

  109. 109.

    Andrya

    @hueyplong:   Again, I’ve explicitly said I don’t think everything FDR did was right.

    However, I can’t resist getting into a bit of history here- I hope it interests you!

    In the mid-1930s, in the Spanish Civil War, Hitler gave lots of assistance to fascist Franco.  Hitler’s expectation was that Franco would be grateful and would help out in WW2.

    FDR recognized the Franco regime, and provided substantial food aid, on condition that Franco not aid Nazi Germany.

    Specifically, when the war started, most of the British army was in India or East Africa.  The British government desperately need to bring them home to fight Germany.  There were two ways to do this- through the Suez canal, the Mediterranean, and the Straight of Gibraltar- or around the southern tip of Africa and north along the west coast Africa.

    The second route was undesirable- the Germans had a U-2 base in southwest Africa which would have wrecked havoc with British troop transports.

    So, when Hitler called up Franco and said “I need to take Gibraltar and make it a German base” he was stunned when Franco said no.

    So, yes, in this case I’d say FDR did the right thing- by recognizing the Franco regime, and giving them non-military aid, FDR prevented Franco from aiding Nazi Germany.

    When Franco denied Hitler access to Gibraltar, Winston Churchill had a bit of fun with it, chortling in the House of Commons about Franco’s “duplicity and ingratitude”.

    And again, I will vote for Harris no matter what her VP choice is.

  110. 110.

    KatKapCC

    Putting aside the fact that potentially helping Trump win due to being mad about what Shapiro (who, FYI, would only be the Vice President, not the President) has said regarding Gaza is monumentally stupid because Trump would be 10000% worse on the issue…

    People who are willing to throw hundreds of millions of people at home and abroad, as well as the planet itself, under the bus, because they’ve decided the only people worth caring about live in Gaza, are cruel and ignorant jerks who would deserve whatever would come to them over the next four years.

    The problem is, the rest of us would not. But we’d still have to try to live through it. And a lot of us would not.

  111. 111.

    Chet Murthy

    @Starfish:

    1. Voting should be mandatory for sure.
    2.  There are many things that are legal, but deplorable, nay contemptible.

    Refusing to vote to save our Republic, a Republic that has offered so much to Americans (whether native-born or naturalized) is contemptible.

  112. 112.

    PsiFighter37

    @Dagaetch: Is the media too online? The interesting thing is that most of America is not, but I am convinced that most of the mainstream media now is – and that’s bad for the country.

  113. 113.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @tam1MI: the truncated quote is just so sexy and irresistible to the MSM they are going repeat it ad nauseum as long as Shapiro is in the mix for/is the V.P.

    Precisely why I indicated I’ll give him the courtesy of due diligence should Harris pick him.

  114. 114.

    CaseyL

    @Chet Murthy: What you said.  With trumpets sounding.

    I grew up having with people accuse me of divided loyalties because of my own ethnic background.  My answer was direct and simple: I am an American.  The US is my country.  My priority will always be to vote for what I believe is best for the US.  Not any country my family came from, not any country “my people” inhabit… but the one I live in, the one I inhabit. “My people”… are Americans.

    @piratedan: The concern isn’t about the Democratic Governor naming a Democrat to the vacant Senate seat.  The concern is that, by law, there has to be a special election in 2026.  No one knows what Arizona’s politics will be like in two years.

    I’ve been so vociferously defending Shapiro, I want to note that I do prefer marginally prefer Walz, whose manner has grown on me, and whose state seems safely Democratic so not too much worry over who would replace him.  (The Lt. Gov for now, presumably; don’t know when the next election would be.)

    But I have faith in the Harris Campaign’s smarts and strategic vision.  Anyone among the presumed finalists will be fine with me.

  115. 115.

    frosty

    @Ivan X: d) nails it.

    I like Walz because I think he will be able to campaign with joy, like Harris. I don’t want it to be Shapiro because we need him in PA to keep the crazy lege in line.

  117. 117.

    hueyplong

    @Andrya: Agree about wartime, but he put a finger on the scale in the 30s, when doing it was really to placate the Catholic bloc within the Democratic party.

    I’m a pretty big FDR fan.

  118. 118.

    KatKapCC

    I am also confused as to why people are talking about Shapiro’s policies when the Vice President does not set policy. If you like Harris’s stance on something, then what are you so worried about? Do you think the little lady is going to let the man tell her what to do? Do you view Harris as so flighty and immature that she’ll go running to him to make sure he approves of everything she does?

  119. 119.

    Chet Murthy

    @Andrya:

    I think the purest allegiance to the United States is to push my country to oppose genocide.

    But if the manner of your “pushing” is to refrain from voting to save your country, and encouraging others to refrain from voting to save our country, then is that an acceptable tactic ?  B/c while -you- will vote Harris, you’re saying that it is -acceptable- for these Palestinian-Americans to refrain from voting b/c they feel that neither party will help their family back in Palestine.

    ETA: and while I see clearly that native-born Palestinian-Americans aren’t violating any oath, naturalized Palestinian-Americans who prioritize Palestine over America, are indeed violating the explicit letter of their Oath of Naturalization.

  120. 120.

    BR

    I know that it’s easy to crap on purity leftist voters or others who vote like them. But right now we’re in the thick of an election where all the reliable voters are aligned on both sides and now it’s a game of inches for unreliable voters of all sorts. True swing voters have the most ridiculous reasons for making their decisions, yet their votes do count as much as purity leftists and students who get easily demoralized and people who are too busy or indifferent to vote.

  121. 121.

    Mike E

    NBC blows the call for the men’s 100m track final, announcing that Jamaican Kishane Thompson won when it was a photo finish that revealed American Noah Lyles leaned and took the gold. USA put two runners on the podium, Fred Kerley won bronze.

  122. 122.

    BR

    @KatKapCC: ​

    Actually I would bet that if she picks Shapiro the bigger issue a month out will not be Gaza but pundits claiming that Shapiro “sounds more presidential” or something of the sort, and that he should be on the top of the ticket.

  123. 123.

    wjca

    @Martin: Analysis shows JFK would have won Texas anyway.

    I’m aware.  I was pointing to the origin of the myth.  Like all myths, it doesn’t have to be true to be the origin.

  124. 124.

    frosty

    @Scout211: However, I do reserve the right to tell everyone in the comments that I was right and you were all wrong.  And stop being so mean to me!
    ———

    Too bad this too long for a rotating tag!

  125. 125.

    hrprogressive

    I feel that Walz has the ability to best speak “Normie” to those who most need to hear it (“swing” / “undecided” voters / the media) and he seems to have enough progressive/left of center bonafides to be the best choice.

    Shapiro reminds me of Obama when he speaks, and that’s the kind of “look at this elitist” kind of level of oratory that I worry about in our Idiocracy Society.

    Plus, fwiw, I have legit concerns about whether he really would piss enough people off RE: I/P to cost a critical state or two.

    Is the sole swing state prize of PA enough to pick him?

    Couldn’t Walz pull in the Midwestern states including PA and maybe even, dare we dream, help ensure a state like GA and maybe even, gosh could NC go back to Blue this year?

    Maybe I fundamentally misunderstand Shapiro’s abilities and approval, but I’ve read enough about potential pitfalls that make me wary of his negatives.

    A Walz or a Kelly should help to deliver the same type of voters I would imagine Shapiro is designed to win over, without alienating some of the very people we need in our coalition.

    At least that’s my armchair quarterbacking on it.

    Harris herself has so much enthusiasm for her, that as long as she doesn’t pluck some random “real leftist” who said and did the kind of shit Vance did “but from the left”, I struggle to think any of the top choices would be *awful*

    I just do have some anxiety about Shapiro, I guess.

  126. 126.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @KatKapCC:

    People are concerned because Shapiro’s policy positions/skeletons could cost us in a close election by feeding into wedge issues like Gaza, school vouchers, etc with our voters. Imagine if there’s a major Middle Eastern war that breaks out between now and Election Day with Shapiro as the VP candidate given his comments on pro-Palestinian protesters. There’s also the sexual harassment scandal that happened in his office. These are distractions we don’t need

  128. 128.

    wjca

    @hueyplong: Though it isn’t going to happen, I wish someone would tell Trump that Michelle Obama is under consideration because fatal apoplexy would be almost certain.

    To guarantee apoplexy, suggest she is going with one of the Central Park 5.

  129. 129.

    Eolirin

    @piratedan: It’s unclear if anyone can win in AZ in 2026 that isn’t Mark Kelly that’s why. Even in a bad cycle Mark Kelly will likely win reelection. AZ doesn’t exactly have a deep bench of proven Dem talent.

  130. 130.

    hueyplong

    @BR: Great point, though I kind of hesitate to think that any random commenter here, facing the same lack of highly specialized and expensively attained data as the rest of us, can rest easy as the one to get it exactly right.

  131. 131.

    Andrya

    @Chet Murthy:   I didn’t say it was right, I said it was understandable.

    However, it’s an understatement to say the Democrats won’t “help” the Palestinians.  We were (and are) actively supporting the genocide.  We have been shipping mega-bombs to Israel while they are indiscriminately bombing Gaza civilians.  39,000 killed so far- how many of them were Hamas fighters?

  132. 132.

    tam1MI

    @KatKapCC:I am also confused as to why people are talking about Shapiro’s policies when the Vice President does not set policy.

    Because the Presidential candidate picking him as the Vice-Presidential candidate at the very least implies that she approves of his policy positions.

  133. 133.

    lamh47

    @zhena gogolia: OT but I just saw ur comment in previous thread!

    You met Mikhail Baryshnikov!!!

    I am soooo jealous…I need deets…when/where/how?

    And how old was he?  Prime Misha, or Sex and the City Misha?

  134. 134.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Burnspbesq:  The largest teachers union in the US, has already endorsed Kamala, knowing damn-well she might pick Shapiro.  They said it was an easy decision because they are confident in her commitment to funding public schools.  They aren’t worried about her VP pick.

  135. 135.

    Chet Murthy

    @Andrya: I agree with you that we need to cut off weapons flow (and subsidies) to Israel.  It’s clear that until and unless wee do, Bibi will continue his genocide.

    When you say that it’s understandable, again I point to the Oath of Naturalization, and note that for a naturalized American citizen to prioritize a foreign allegiance to a foreign state/sovereignty (which surely Palestine is) over their allegiance to America and to our Constitution, is to break that oath.

  136. 136.

    M31

    @wjca: lol one of the Central Park 5 is now in Congress, yes? Has at least as much government experience as Vance probably

    and I’m sure a much better human being

  137. 137.

    Chet Murthy

    @Andrya: Why am I gettin’ so bent-outta-shape about the Oath?  When I naturalized, part of the Oath I swore, said that if called before the House Committee on Unamerican Acitivities, I would appear.  Oaths should matter.  Responsibilities should matter.  Being an American isn’t supposed to only be about privileges.

  138. 138.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @wjca: Didn’t one of them just find his way into NY City Council? That’s more government experience than Trump had going in.

  139. 139.

    wjca

    @Chet Murthy: Voting should be mandatory for sure.

    Because having write-in votes for Mickey Mouse outpace all real candidates would be sooooo wonderful.

    If people want to self-select as neither knowing nor caring, we should just take the win.

  141. 141.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @tam1MI: There are always differences between the President and VP in their policy stances.  They literally argue over them in the Primaries.  See: Biden and Kamala for the most recent example.  If a Presidential candidate could only run with someone who is already 100% aligned they would never find a VP candidate at all.

    If anything, picking Shapiro would signal that she’s quite confident that he will pursue HER policies, as is the VP’s duty.

  142. 142.

    Chet Murthy

    @wjca: No, because mandatory voting would force the government to properly ensure that all citizens could vote.

  143. 143.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @wjca: There are people who know and care and choose not to vote “on principle.” I’m not sure we want to be forcing them either.

  144. 144.

    hueyplong

    @Andrya: So is cutting off arms sales to Israel the answer from your POV? What is your minimum demand to get us to the status of no longer supporting genocide?

    The question is not meant as a joke. I am trying to figure out if that thing is plausibly done this year.

  145. 145.

    BR

    I do hope that Harris is considering what Obama must have considered when choosing Biden — who will happily play second fiddle to a boundary breaking candidate even when they might have had presidential ambitions themselves. Biden, despite running against Obama, switched into that gear immediately and did great. Harris did the same for Biden. I hope the VP pick can do that for Harris — it’s essential.

  146. 146.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Chet Murthy:

    I agree with you that we need to cut off weapons flow (and subsidies) to Israel. It’s clear that until and unless wee do, Bibi will continue his genocide.

    I’d like to know why we haven’t already. As I understand it, the executive has broad discretion on foreign military aid, right? That’s leverage we have. I have a feeling that Isreal is responsible for the assassination of that Hamas leader in Tehran that has pissed off the Iranians and has significantly raised the possibility of a major regional war. At every turn, Netanyahu has not acted in good faith

  147. 147.

    eclare

    @hrprogressive:

    Speaking of normie voters, in Walz’s video from the MN state fair last year, he wore a camo baseball cap and a Springsteen t-shirt.  You know Harris is going to get painted as a San Francisco liberal, I think this could deflect some of that.  Plus I really like his emphasis on public schools, making breakfast and lunch free to all kids is a huge plus to me in his background.

    And like others have said, he has that happy warrior attitude that Harris also has.

  149. 149.

    Ken

    In case you haven’t seen the reports yet, in other campaign news RFK Jr. has announced that he’s the mystery man who dumped a bear carcass in Central Park in 2014. He’s also taped a video with Roseanne Barr explaining the incident had something to do with bike lanes.

    This is apparently because the New Yorker was about to break the story, though I can’t imagine how that could have caused more problems than this effort at damage control.

  150. 150.

    hueyplong

    @Ken: I take the position that your concern threatens a downward spiral that will tank the campaign. This board’s history will record that the culprit was Ken. Ken alone. Just Ken.

    Mark. My. Words

  151. 151.

    RevRick

    Any of the potential VP choices are great. Harris has made it clear that her test will be the same Obama used to choose Biden and Biden used to choose to select Harris. Who can I count on to be the last person in the Oval Office to help me weigh the decisions. Voters choose Presidents, and, oh, by the way, VPs. And they only consider the VP selection as what it may say about decision-making.

  154. 154.

    Andrya

    @hueyplong:   Cutting off military aid is an absolute minimum.   I don’t have the expertise to answer your very complicated question-  for example, what tools are available to the US government, and how they should be used.

  155. 155.

    Chet Murthy

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): There are two reasons we haven’t cut off arms to Israel:

    1.  As Mearsheimer and Walt explained so long ago in their seminal work “The Israel Lobby”, Israel had formidable lobbying prowess thru AIPAC and other organs, and they use it.  There is a considerable Israel caucus in both parties.  It is what it is
    2.  Support for Israel remains high among voters of both parties, and that includes Democrats.

    I’m a good example: until this recent war, I supported the US relationship with Israel, even as I thought Israel needed to relinquish all the Occupied Territories.  But this war has changed my mind, and now I can see clearly that as long as the US backstops Israel, they’re going to continue ethnically cleansing // genociding Palestine.

  157. 157.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Two weeks ago Shapiro was a virtual unknown on the national stage, and now if online left is to be believed he is the devil incarnate.

    Because he wasn’t under consideration as a VP candidate before then

  159. 159.

    hueyplong

    @Andrya: The solution likely is complex and why it is so irritating that only Dems are asked to spell it out. If you ask Trump, he’ll prattle on about Silence of the Lambs.

  160. 160.

    Ken

    @hueyplong: Thank you for recognizing my small efforts.

    I’ve also been worried about the ebullience and optimism I’ve been seeing the last two weeks from Democrats and here on Balloon Juice, and am glad to see a gradual return to the normal blame-casting, second-guessing, and wailing that the Harris campaign is doing everything wrong.

  161. 161.

    Seonachan

    Just to echo a few others’ comments about the danger of picking a senator, there are numerous examples of senate seats flipping parties via special elections, most recently Raphael Warnock and…Mark Kelly. Even in solid red and blue states, weird stuff happens, both good (Doug Jones) and bad (Scott Brown, Mark Kirk).

  162. 162.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Chet Murthy: It’s weird that when Jewish-Americans vote based on Israel they are accused of dual-loyalties, whereas Palestinian-Americans doing the exact same thing for Gaza don’t get the same smear.  The fact that, in Progressive spaces, one is acceptable, the other is not, really reeks of historically Anti-Semitic tropes.

  163. 163.

    piratedan

    @Eolirin: wow, it’s like you managed to completely ignore my post, no… worse than that, you completely discounted it.

    Guess it’s time for me to take a sabbatical for a bit until the silly season concludes.

  166. 166.

    Mike E

    Meanwhile in NC, Mr Black Trump (Mark Robinson) has been airing an ad about his wife’s abortion, coming out in favor of the state’s 12 week abortion restriction. The repubs are running scared from Dobbs and the Roe v Wade reversal, we must pound this weakness on the daily.

  167. 167.

    Chet Murthy

    @UncleEbeneezer: If Jewish-Americans refuse to vote for the Dems (or worse, vote for TCFG), b/c they think TCFG will be better for Israel, then yeah, I think that’s contemptible too.

  169. 169.

    Chet Murthy

    @UncleEbeneezer: In this election, there is no “choice to not make a choice”.  Americans who decide they cannot vote for the Dems are making a choice, and that choice is to end our Republic.  It doesn’t matter -why- they’re making that choice: it could be because they’re so exercised about I/P, or heck, it could be because they think the Dems won’t work to fix climate change.  Doesn’t matter why.

    People who don’t vote for the Dems are as bad as G(r)OPers.

  170. 170.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Chet Murthy:

    Fine. Then force Bibi out with threats of cutting off funding/weapons. I recall Geminid mentioning many months ago that it was a possibility that the Biden admin had but choose not to pursue because it was “better for Isrealis to vote him out and choose their own government” than have one imposed by us.

    I disagree. I think Netanyahu wants to see Trump back in the White House and save himself from prison. I think it’s worth it to save ourselves from dictatorship and save lives

  172. 172.

    wjca

    @Chet Murthy: No, because mandatory voting would force the government to properly ensure that all citizens could vote. 

    Optimist.  More likely, they keep it hard for those they don’t like to vote.  And as a bonus, get to then fine them for failing to vote.

  173. 173.

    Chet Murthy

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Do you read Atrios?  He’s been pretty much correct about the way that Bibi has been stealing Biden’s lunch money every damn day.  There was a recent post where Atrios pointed out that all this bullshit Bibi was spouting about negotiations and moving towards a cease-fire was just that: bullshit.  He never did and does not now want a cease-fire: he wants to kill as many Palestinians as he can.  That’s all he wants.  And we’re letting him.

    Which is still better than what TCFG would do.

  175. 175.

    anitamargarita

    @Martin: my feeling is that Walz articulates the optimism of the Harris campaign, and also the “WTF? Weirdos” directed at the Rs. I don’t get any such “vibe” from Shapiro.

  179. 179.

    KatKapCC

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): But again, the Vice President does not set policy. His views on the Middle East or school vouchers won’t impact anything. To me, all these worries seem to imply that people doubt Harris’s ability to do the job of President herself, and that the VP would be running things behind the scene.

    People need to examine their ingrained misogyny, is all I’m saying.

  180. 180.

    Another Scott

    @Chet Murthy: #3 – As Iran’s recent salvo of missiles and drones demonstrated, Israel depends on US and western military support for protection from opponents in the region.  The US washing its hands of Bibi’s government would invite a larger conflagration much quicker.  (Iran is expected to retaliate for the latest Bibi outrage within days.)

    And then what would the US do??

    Like it or not, we have to pressure Bibi’s government behind the scenes while continuing to say (and back up the words) that we are committed to Israel’s security.

    It sucks.  Bibi is a monster.  The IDF are too often war criminals.  Israeli voters have spent decades willingly falling into a trap by destroying their left wing parties in the belief that they can create a Greater Israel on Palestinian lands without consequences.  But walking away from Israel is not a cost-free option for the US and will not serve US’s interests.

    US’s interests ultimately depend on a peaceful, prosperous, progressing middle east.  Pushing and prodding Israel, and not walking away, has to be part of the process.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  181. 181.

    BR

    @Jackie:
    No, but Tim Kaine can’t talk his way out of a wet paper bag. He’s a perfectly fine senator, but he’s boring and doesn’t carry himself like he thinks he should be running the world. Shapiro has clearly studied Barack Obama and Bill Clinton and is emulating their swagger and style. He sounds like someone who wants to be president, and many pundits wanted him to be the nominee before it became clear Harris was going to be the nominee.​

  182. 182.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @UncleEbeneezer:

    I’m sorry if I came off as a bit too blunt in my reply to this comment. But I really don’t want any own goals by this campaign. We have to win. This chance for a reset can’t be squandered

    @Chet Murthy:

    I don’t, but that lines up with my own thoughts on this, more or less. I think it’s bullshit that we’re not calling the shots and controlling Israel more than we are

  183. 183.

    KatKapCC

    @tam1MI: Do you think that every presidential candidate has agreed with 100% of their running mate’s positions on every topic? Do you think Obama approved of all of Biden’s tough-on-crime shit from the 80s and 90s, for example?

    Think about Democratic presidential primaries. They’re all on stage being like “all these people suck and here is why” — and then once one of them is the nominee, they’re all supporting them 100%. You’re never going to find two Dems who have exactly the same policy positions. Harris could certainly disagree with a few of Shaprio’s and still think that in the macro, he would be the best choice.

    All of this pre-emptive whinging is just making it sound like a lot of the WOOHOO HARRIS IS THE BEST crowd is pivoting quite easily to doubting her decisions and calling her own ethics into question.

  184. 184.

    Darkrose

    @Martin: Sorry, but if you’re going for a caster, I think you’d have to take Gale. Sure, he’s kind of annoying, but the whole “Cleric of Shar” thing would be a problem for Shadowheart; at least Mystra still cares for Gale. I would say Wyll, but again, his patron is horrible. Plus his dad is a cop.

  185. 185.

    Jackie

    @M31: One of the Central Park Five is now a City Councilman. But, I hope this is just the beginning of his political ambitions! 😊

  186. 186.

    Lyrebird

    @KatKapCC: To me, all these worries seem to imply that people doubt Harris’s ability to do the job of President herself, and that the VP would be running things behind the scene.

    I see merit to your point, though I do see other wrinkles.  I myself worry about what the press is gonna do, no matter how much confidence I myself have in MVP (and i have boatloads)!!!  I’m trying not to speak for anyone else, but I’d say that there are a range of views here as people try to game out what swing voters will think…

    Peace to all!

  187. 187.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @KatKapCC: God forbid we have opinions on potential candidates. Everyone here has been quite clear they’ll support any foreseeable ticket that may emerge.

  188. 188.

    Chet Murthy

    @Another Scott:

    Like it or not, we have to pressure Bibi’s government behind the scenes while continuing to say (and back up the words) that we are committed to Israel’s security.

    I believed this for many, many years.  But it’s clear that as long as we support Israel’s security, Israel will continue to eat away at Palestinian land, continue to kill Palestinians.  If we want it to stop, we have to make Israel a clear either-or proposition: EITHER we support your security OR you can continue to occupy the Occupied Territories.  it’s an “exclusive or”: you don’t get both.  Sure, give ’em a time-limit to decide — like, say, a year.  But this indefinite commitment to support Israel’s security, while they can do whatever the hell they want, is untenable.

    Israel has been eating up Palestinian land under Likud, but also under Labor — under Barak they built settlements, even as they were supposedly negotiating the final-status Oslo Accords.  This is a consensus position in Israeli society, and the idea that we’re going to gently nudge them out of it is wishful thinking

    ETA: I  mean, let’s get real here.  As long as the US keeps the weapons flowing, what -incentive- does Israel have to change?

  189. 189.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @KatKapCC:

    That might not matter to people we need to vote for us to win and could drag the campaign down. They would take it that Harris at the very least doesn’t consider such things as disqualifying/morally wrong. Believe me, people online (and the internet can amplify anything) can be very judgemental and strident

    Misogyny has nothing to do with it, at least in my case. I’d be saying the same things if Harris were a man

  190. 190.

    Martin

    @UncleEbeneezer: I would posit a different way of looking at it.

    You could make the argument that in the current geopolitical space, Israel is the only openly colonizing state, as a matter of policy. If you are anti-colonialism (which generally tracks with age – older voters are more likely to be tolerant of colonialism given it was more common in decades past, and younger are not given there is almost universal agreement that its a terrible thing), then any support for Israel is going to be shouted down, regardless of if that’s your homeland or not. We didn’t handle South Africa any differently in that regard.

    Palestine gets a different treatment because they don’t have colonial aspirations, let alone an active campaign of it, and are a victim of that same colonization. So support for Palestine is going to be broadly backed, regardless of if that’s your homeland or not.

    You are framing this that Jews are undeserving of dual loyalty, when every argument I’ve seen frames it that Israel is undeserving of anyones loyalty by virtue of their practice of colonialism.

    If there is a near 1:1 correspondence between ‘supporters of Israel’ and ‘Jews’, it becomes effectively impossible to separate a criticism of supporters of the state in general from a criticism of Jews in particular. I will note, I don’t see any similar criticism of Ukrainian Jews expressing support for Ukraine, suggesting to me that the persons identity is not a variable here, but the perceived validity of the object of support is.

    One of the more telling things for me in this moment is that we have two Jewish world leaders – one in Israel and one in Ukraine. One is prosecuting a war that international courts deem to be unjust on a less powerful colonized neighbor and one is the victim of a war that international courts deem to be unjust on a less powerful colonized neighbor.

    Would we question the dual-loyalty of Russian Americans in support of Russia? Yeah, I’m pretty fucking sure we would. We sure as shit question the loyalty of non-Russian Americans in support of Russia. That doesn’t make us whatever the Russian ethnic or religious equivalent to ‘antisemitic’ would be.

  194. 194.

    KatKapCC

    @The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Opinions are fine. But some of the comments here are acting like Shapiro is going to be the president, which implies at least a subconscious belief that he will be to some extent, which implies doubt in Harris.

  195. 195.

    BR

    @Martin:

    Yeah, I noticed it the first time I saw him speak. But he’s also doing a little Bill Clinton impression in the almost-drawl he slips in. I don’t know if that’s his natural accent or not, though.

  196. 196.

    tam1MI

    @KatKapCC: There are issues besides Gaza I dislike Shapiro on, but vis a vis Gaza I guess my bottom line is:  If Harris is going to pick someone who is even more pro-Israel than Biden was perceived as being, why the hell did we go through all this drama getting rid of Biden to begin with?

    EDITED TO ADD:  And, after a couple of minutes of thought, an answer to question has occurred to me.  There might be a belief among Harris’s people that it is important to woo back those 14 million primary voters who cast their votes for Biden.  I’m rather skeptical that is the case, but it is a potential explanation…

  197. 197.

    BR

    @KatKapCC: ​

    I have no doubt at all in Harris. I know that no matter who is her VP she’ll be calling the shots. But I have great doubt in our failed media experiment and punditocracy for the next three months creating doubts about whether her VP nominee is really calling the shots. They won’t do it if it’s Pete, Walz, or Beshear. But I bet they will if it’s Shapiro or Kelly.

  198. 198.

    CaseyL

    @tam1MI:

    Gaza was not the driving force behind Biden deciding to step aside.

    Maybe Gaza was the most important issue for you, but it wasn’t what drove his decision.​

    @BR: ​ Whu? Why does picking Shapiro make it look like he’s the power behind the throne? I don’t understand this at all.

  200. 200.

    strange visitor (from another planet)

    @BR:

    @Martin:

    pritzker’s a pretty funny guy. he’s good and quippy. he’s stuuuupid rich. his family owns the hyatt chain.

    he could help balance out the avalanche of silicon valley techbro cash fibberache is going to rely on.

  201. 201.

    BR

    @CaseyL: ​

    I can’t imagine him, by the way he speaks and everything I’ve read about him, being able to play second fiddle well. My gut is that he’s going to say or do something that will either 1) have the pundits asking if it’s a policy shift for Harris or 2) framing his speeches with a lot of stuff that’s really about him and not as much backing up Harris. Not the end of the world, but both of those will lead some of the pundits to start talking him up as if he’s the Great Centrist Candidate they’ve always wanted.

  202. 202.

    geg6

    Although I want to keep him as my governor, there’s some lack of knowledge about Shapiro being pushed here and I’d like to straighten it out.  Teachers unions in PA support Shapiro.  Period.  End of discussion.  As for his supposed tolerance for sex crimes, he got a gigantic settlement against the Catholic Church as AG.  He was righteous and angry and those victims can’t support him more.  And lastly, he served two terms as AG, served in the PA House and was the chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (the first Democratic majority in that county ever).  He’s not a political novice.

  204. 204.

    Another Scott

    @Chet Murthy: I see that argument.

    But I also see something like this:

    1.  Biden announces cut-off of XYZ weapons unless Bibi winds down the war and begins negotiations on land for peace and all the rest.
    2.  Hezbollah, the Houthis, and PIJ, and others, see an opening.  Military actions intensify in Golan, the West Bank, Gaza, the Red Sea, and elsewhere.
    3.  Bibi responds, and goes overboard, invades Lebanon again, killing lots of civilians.
    4.  Iran and others decide it’s a perfect opportunity to teach Bibi a lesson.
    5.  Hundreds of American nationals are killed in missile and drone strikes that overwhelm Iron Dome and all the rest.
    6.  …

    Now what??

    Things blew up quickly as a result of our being pissed off at Bibi and now the situation is even worse.  Monsters in Congress see an opening to attack the Administration, weakening them in their efforts to strengthen US democracy and all the rest.

    I’m convinced that that, or something like it, is what’s driving Biden’s policy with Bibi and the region.

    As to what else can the US do?  We can slow deliveries, we can say no more big bombs (as Biden already did).  We can make it clear that we won’t use the UNSC veto as frequently to protect Israel.

    The existing $38B 10 year MOU with Israel ends in 2028.  We can let Bibi know that the clock is ticking and we will not support anything close to that size in the future without big changes in his actions.  And we will work to prevent him going around the POTUS to negotiate directly with Congress (as Israel did in the past)…

    The choices here aren’t binary.  We have to keep the big picture in mind and remember that Israel has agency and that making things even worse will not help advance US interests.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  205. 205.

    strange visitor (from another planet)

    as a fellow red-sea pedestrian, i think shapiro will cost votes because americans really, REALLY don’t like jews.

  206. 206.

    CaseyL

    @BR: ​

    Where in the world are you getting these ideas? They don’t make any sense at all.

    You’re infantilizing Harris, smearing Shapiro, and pulling some wild scenarios out of thin air.​

    @strange visitor (from another planet): ​ Yes, and it’s gutting me to see it right here on BJ. JFC.

  207. 207.

    Bupalos

    @Martin: people keep saying this based on binaries, “did x carry y state…” and there just aren’t any clear threshold events like that. but I think the two actual peer reviews statistical analyses did find an positive effect, one like .5% and the other like 2%.

    If I’m getting 1%, I want it in PA.

  208. 208.

    BR

    @CaseyL:

    Ok, I’ll stop. Clearly I’m not distinguishing well enough between my views and what I think we’d get from the failed punditocracy. It’s not like they’ve covered themselves in glory these last months or years — we have to expect their bad behavior to continue no matter who is picked.

  209. 209.

    Chet Murthy

    @Another Scott: I don’t understand your scenario.  If Biden tells Bibi that unless he winds down the war, we are cutting off arms IN ONE YEAR, how does that give Iran/Hezb/Houthis/PIJ/Hamas/whoever an opening?  I don’t see it.  B/c the US will be backstopping Israel for another whole year.  And in that year, Bibi will be winding down the war, and actively moving to exit the Occupied Territories, riiiiiight?  So the US WILL CONTINUE to backstop Israel after the year is up, right?

    Now, OTOH, if Bibi tells the US to suck a tailpipe, continues the war, and at the end of the year the US says “buh-bye”, then yeah, your scenario can happen.  But that is COMPLETELY within Israel’s control — they do indeed have agency, as you point out.  As for American citizens, they’ll have a year to get out of Israel, or at least, as the  year runs out, a couple of months to pack their bags and leave.

    Israel and Bibi have agency.  They can end this war and make a just peace: all they have to do is give back the Occupied Territories.  If they do that, we can and should continue to backstop Israel to the hilt.

  210. 210.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @CaseyL: A Vice President getting ahead of their President can help move an issue, see Biden on gay marriage.

    Democrats run professional organizations and it’s easier for me to see such things being done tactically rather than subversively.

  211. 211.

    tam1MI

    @CaseyL:

    Gaza was not the driving force behind Biden deciding to step aside.

    Maybe Gaza was the most important issue for you, but it wasn’t what drove his decision.​

    I agree with this.  But, as a Democrat living in Michigan, I am aware that there is a portion of the Democratic coalition for whom Gaza IS the most important issue, and they have made it very, very clear that whether or not they even vote in November, and who they vote for, hinges on this.

    I posed this to a friend who supported Shapiro for V.P.   I said, fine, let’s assume that, in accordance with popular belief, we put Shapiro on the ticket and get Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.  There is a very real chance that doing so loses Michigan and it’s 15 electoral votes.  (20% of voters in Michigan’s presidential primary voted “Uncommitted”.  That’s more than 4 times the percentage of Elissa Slotkin’s current lead in Michigan).  So which state do you propose to add to the Dems column to make up those 11 lost electoral votes?  Ohio?  Indiana?  North Carolina?  Florida?  You show me a swing state besides Pennsylvania that adding Shapiro to the ticket will add back those 11 electoral votes.

    My friend couldn’t answer this question, but in their defense we were at party and didn’t have an Electoral College map right handy…

  212. 212.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @CaseyL:

    Yes, and it’s gutting me to see it right here on BJ. JFC.

    Criticism of Shapiro isn’t automatically antisemitism, that’s ridiculous

  213. 213.

    RaflW

    I’m just gonna say it: Shapiro comes across as a pretty typical (not bad, just typical) politician. Walz comes across as a public servant. I actually think Kelly, who I know less about, is more like Walz in that respect.

    But mostly, as said upthread, I want this decision to happen. And for us all to get back to the fun of kicking Donold‘s ass.

  218. 218.

    Poe Larity

    The only important question is which candidate will be happy to sit for interviews at Sulzberger’s rag.

  219. 219.

    JoyceH

    @BR: if Shapiro studied Obama and Clinton, he must have been absent for the television unit. I watched part of the rally that Whitmer and Shapiro had for Harris. When it was Shapiro’s turn at the mike he started out great, but by the end he was shouting. It probably sounded great in a big room full of excited supporters all making noise, but on television it came across as overwrought.

  220. 220.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @Poe Larity: The only important question is which candidate will be happy to sit for interviews at Sulzberger’s rag.

    Any who refuse gain a point in my favor, for what that is worth.

  221. 221.

    frosty

    @Darkrose: ​
     Wyll’s dad is a cop. Kamala’s a cop. Synergy!!! //s

    Note: Who’s Wyll? No, no need to explain, you gamers have fun.

  223. 223.

    Fair Economist

    @BR: Yes, myrmepropagandist is one of the most interesting posters on Mastodon. NYC local events + Dem/left politics + amateur ant scientist (who could probably publish if she tried) – very cool combo.

  224. 224.

    Another Scott

    @Chet Murthy: My unstated assumption is that either the US will again soon protect Israel in its defense from (the assumed imminent) Iranian retaliation; or that Iran will bide its time, hoping that the US makes some ultimatum to Bibi that he has to wind down the Gaza war quickly.  (I can’t see Biden or Harris accepting another year of Bibi’s war in Gaza.)

    So, I would expect that if any US ultimatum were to happen, it would be in less than a year.

    In the first case, it’s hard to counter the argument: You protected them twice before, why are you dropping them now?  In the second case, it’s hard to counter the argument: You threw them to the wolves when everyone knew that Iran was going to retaliate.

    :-/

    If Iran were to retaliate for the Tehran assassination after the ultimatum were issued, what would the US do??

    Lots and lots of moving parts.

    Yes, I agree, (and have made the same argument in other contexts) that as long as there are no consequences, then Bibi and the RWNJs in Israel (including too many of her voters) won’t change.  But I don’t think some blanket cutting-off of arms to Israel will get them to change policy and were it to happen I think it would make the overall situation worse.  We need to be smart about dealing with monsters like him, for foreign and domestic policy reasons.

    (The world’s arms market is huge, and Israel could probably find ways to get weapons (not as good, but maybe good enough) elsewhere if necessary.)

    Anyway, that’s my thought process, such as it is.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  227. 227.

    Chet Murthy

    @tam1MI: Two things:

    1.  This link says it was 13%: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/michigan-2024-results-13-democrats-uncommitted-will-it-matter-biden
      and it -does- say it was >100k voters.
    2. I read that 22% of MI registered voters (1.8m) voted in the Dem primary ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/michigan-primary-2024-voter-turnout/ ); meanwhile, in 2020 ( https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/michigan ) 5.45m voters voted.  What reason is there to think that that 13% of voters in the primary will translate to 13% in the general ?
  229. 229.

    BR

    @CaseyL: ​

    I said Kelly would seem that way as well. Not because of his stump speech, but because the pundits are in love with his whole image.

    Again, I’m trying to distinguish between my views and the terrible things I expect from pundits. There will be terrible things they’ll say about anyone. The question is how to minimize the damage.

    I don’t have a favorite pick among the VP contenders. I know Harris will make the right choice, and I hope the vetting team had enough time to find everything on everyone.

  231. 231.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @Martin: When you keep running the same plot twist from the dawn of time, it becomes predictable and recognizable.

    ETA: Also, too, “Woman President can’t hold her own with Alphaxxx Man successor waiting in the wings” is also not a good look.

    Make the woman President a gay man and you have my browser history…

  232. 232.

    Chet Murthy

    @Another Scott:

    If Iran were to retaliate for the Tehran assassination after the ultimatum were issued, what would the US do??

    If Bibi has complied with our demands, then we back him to the hilt.  If Bibi has -not- complied with our demands, then if Iran waits until the year is up, yeah, Israel’s on its own.  That’s how it works, eh?

    Re: Israel purchasing arms on the open market, sure they can.  But in addition to stopping selling them arms, we’d be stopping subsidies, right?  No more of our money to fund their war machine.

    Look: I get that it’s not easy.  But this idea that somehow the bogeyman of Iran’s retaliation is supposed to keep us forever-and-ever backstopping Israel when it goes merrily genociding Palestinians, is just unacceptable.  And Bibi’s made it pretty damn clear that he’s not gonna stop.  We have to -stop him-.  You don’t do that by asking nicely and then delivering the next shipment of bombs. You do it by giving him a hard date after which there are no arms, no money, no nuthin’, unless he stops his genocide.

  233. 233.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Credit to Jackie from downstairs:

    The phrase “Trump is a coward” is currently trending among users on Donald Trump’s own social media network, Truth Social.

    Trump, who recently backed out of a debate he had previously agreed to on ABC and instead insisted he debate Vice President Kamala Harris on Fox News, has come under fire for saying he would no longer participate in the scheduled event.

    *snip*

    The #TrumpIsACoward hashtag has been trending on X and, on Sunday, it was also trending on Truth Social.

    At the time of writing, #TrumpIsACoward is the third trending topic listed on Truth Social’s main page.

    https://www.rawstory.com/news/trump-is-a-coward-trending-on-truth-social/

    Absolutely wonderful! I can only hope this means his own hard-core online supporters are the ones leading this, at least on Truth Social, and they’re calling him out on his own safe space platform

  236. 236.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @Martin: Why are we playing like this is going to be close. Trump sucks. The word of the day “run up the score.”

    Landside, baby.

    ETA: Let’s get us some state houses, school boards, city councils, fuckin’ name it.

  238. 238.

    SomeRandomGuy

    Stepping back in to mention:

    You think it’s hard to get Pennsylvanians to agree with anything? *I* grew up in Pennsylvania, and I think… well… I must admit, some folks find me to be argumentative.(<<== for whatever reason, I think understatement is one of the higher forms of humor. I just do. )

    That’s pretty strong support on Shapiro’s side. You can barely get 60% on whiz vs provolone, on a good day. (Also: Anyone who thinks there is only one, or the other, will be eternally cursed by being unable to find good pizza fries. Just sayin’. Come to the Dem side – we have pizza fries.)

  239. 239.

    TS

    @wjca:

    Because having write-in votes for Mickey Mouse outpace all real candidates would be sooooo wonderful.

    Voting is compulsory in Australia – we get a few votes for Mr Mouse and others couched in more interesting language – but the total informal vote is usually well less than 10%. There are more people who don’t vote than who vote informally.

  240. 240.

    Martin

    This RFK story is fucking bananas. How did we wind up with the most deranged people in America running for high office?

  241. 241.

    tam1MI

    @Chet Murthy:

    Two things:

    1.  This link says it was 13%: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/michigan-2024-results-13-democrats-uncommitted-will-it-matter-bidenand it -does- say it was >100k voters.

    2. I read that 22% of MI registered voters (1.8m) voted in the Dem primary ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/michigan-primary-2024-voter-turnout/ ); meanwhile, in 2020 ( https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/michigan ) 5.45m voters voted.  What reason is there to think that that 13% of voters in the primary will translate to 13% in the general ?

    1.  I stand corrected.  :)

    2.  If I read your question correctly, you are asking about voters who didn’t vote in the primary but will vote in the general, and how it will affect that 13%, correct?  Obviously, it will drive that percentage down, but still… I haven’t seen a lot of polls lately that show Dems performing outside the MOE, so a loss of even 1 or 2 percent could be catastrophic.

    Look, I am not saying that putting Shapiro on the ticket WILL lose Michigan, I am saying that there is a very real possibility that doing so COULD do so.  And if that happens, where do we make up those electoral votes?  I mean, the biggest argument I have heard for Shapiro is the Electoral College math, so fine, let’s discuss the electoral college math.  I am seeing a potential problem with the Electoral College math, I’d like to see the scenario I posited get gamed out to show hoe we could recover from the bad scenario.

  242. 242.

    CaseyL

    @BR: 

    The pundits are absolutely going to do what they can to damage the Democratic ticket. That’s their “job,” and they’ll do it no matter who Harris chooses.

    We can do Harris and her team the minimal courtesy of assuming they know what they’re doing.

    We can do our Party and our country the minimal courtesy of not doing the pundits job for them by fighting their destructive takes instead of affirming them.

  244. 244.

    SiubhanDuinne

    Very much in the FWIW department, I just got an email from Josh Shapiro that says in part (after listing some of his accomplishments as PA Gov):

    Subaru, I’m laser-focused on working with everyone to get stuff done. After all, I know you don’t want to see your leaders endlessly argue while getting nothing done. You’re counting on us to take action, defend your freedoms, and deliver progress and resources to the families and communities that need it most.

    That’s exactly what I’ve done since day one — and it’s what I’m going to continue to do every day as Governor.

    I can read that either way. If nothing else, the wording is masterful political ambiguity.

  245. 245.

    Another Scott

    @Chet Murthy:  But then I circle back to the big picture – it’s not in the US’s interests for Israel to be attacked.  The US will respond if Israel is in danger, and always has.  And everyone knows it.

    I share the view that Israel has abused that support.  But…

    We agree that it is not easy.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  246. 246.

    Citizen Alan

    @strange visitor (from another planet): The only way I would support pritzker on the ticket is if he spent the entire campaign aggressively pushing for a wealth tax, a higher estate tax,  and  a higher top marginal rate on the grounds that it was immoral for people to be as rich as he is.

  247. 247.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @CaseyL:

    Sure, but what about loud people on the left outside of the coalition who could do damage? You and I both know that bots and troll farms would amplify this online. BR is right that we should minimize any potential harm, particularly attacks that could play into narratives that create wedges, particularly current salient ones

  249. 249.

    Chet Murthy

    @Another Scott:

    The US will respond if Israel is in danger, and always has.

    Unless this changes, Israel -will- erase Palestine from the map.  It’s a foregone conclusion.  Because it’s clear to me that Israeli society is comfortable with the bit-by-bit ethnic cleansing that Israel has been practicing for the last nearly-30-years.

  250. 250.

    PatD

    @Eolirin: Oh, I don’t know about that. There was a lot of concern that only Sinema could win her seat too. AZ is winnable for Democrats, even in midterm elections.

  251. 251.

    One of the Many Jens

    Re who I’d like to see in the veep spot, Walz and Pete are at the top of my list.

    Re supporting Israel with weaponry. Saving Palestinians and Israelis are obviously both important. Through the lens solely of Israel and Palestinians, Israel obviously has the power. On a larger scale, they are surrounded by people who would be just fine killing every one of them.

    Leveraging what power we have is complex for a variety of reasons, humanitarian on both sides, and also frankly the presence of nuclear weapons. It seems to me pretty important to ensure that Israel never feels so desperate for their survival that they break out their nukes.

    For all those who are hating the idea of Shapiro because of I/P, I/P is actually why I might bump Shapiro higher on my list … having a President married to a Jewish husband, and with a Jewish VP could help create political room to draw a harder line with Israel in relation to their actions toward Palestinians.

  252. 252.

    Kent

    @tcblue:@ssdd: shapiro outperformed one of the worst candidates in PA history. i’d not put too much stock on the comparison to biden in PA

    Republicans CONSTANTLY put up the worst candidates in history.  It is basically all they do in the age of Trump.  Yet a lot of them win or come close to it.  Remember Hershel Walker and Kari Lake?  They were as bad or worse as Mastriano and both were in swing states that were basically just as close as PA in 2020.  Yet both Walker and Lake came within an eyelash of winning whereas Shapiro absolutely crushed Mastriano

    Note:  Being a teacher I’m a Walz guy.  But I trust the Harris campaign to have some of the smartest political minds in the country giving this decision their 24/7 attention.  They know FAR more than we do.  I’ll support whoever she picks.  It’s the top of the ticket that actually matters anyway.  And we haven’t had a bad Democratic VP in maybe a century.  All the stinkers have all been on the GOP side.

  254. 254.

    strange visitor (from another planet)

    TIL that there is a documentary based on barbara tuchman’s incredible (and incredibly thorough) book, the guns of august. just started watching it

    eta- @Citizen Alan: yeah, i kinda don’t think he’s gonna be doing that.

  255. 255.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Kent:

    Perhaps the impact of Dobbs played a role there? Arizona and Georgia are much redder than PA is

  256. 256.

    columbusqueen

    @BR: Reportedly Fetterman has relayed concerns to Harris that Shapiro will not be content playing second fiddle & is too ambitious to be trusted.

  257. 257.

    PatD

    @tam1MI: I would argue that those voters who indicated they would sit out the election were largely protesting Biden. And it doesn’t make much sense to me to be overly concerned about MI now if one also strongly supported Biden remaining in the race. Shapiro is likely not going to be the drag some might fear, if selected.

  260. 260.

    tam1MI

    @PatD:I would argue that those voters who indicated they would sit out the election were largely protesting Biden. And it doesn’t make much sense to me to be overly concerned about MI now if one also strongly supported Biden remaining in the race. Shapiro is likely not going to be the drag some might fear, if selected.

    Good point.  I guess we will just have to wait and see…  :)

  261. 261.

    strange visitor (from another planet)

    @tam1MI: youtube. who knew? (i mean, besides the guy who made it and the guy who posted it, but yeah.

    wow. holy TaRDiS, batman, but i can’t believe this shit happened just a little over a century ago.

  263. 263.

    M31

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): hahahah if “trump is a coward” is trending on ‘truth’ social, I hope it’s because Theil is ratfucking behind the scenes to actually get Trump to drop out and to put Vance in the top spot

    that would be hilarious

  265. 265.

    Martin

    @Chet Murthy: Yeah, given the current dynamic, Palestine will eventually be completely annexed. Every year the US allows the settlements to continue, that eventuality gets harder to avoid.

  267. 267.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Kent:

    Right, but Kelly narrowly beat Blake Masters in 2022. Same with the other state offices that year in Arizona. Warnock won a full term in 2021. However, in PA, Shapiro won by substantially more the same year as Kelly in 2022. I’m sure other factors were in play too

  268. 268.

    tam1MI

    @columbusqueen:  Reportedly Fetterman has relayed concerns to Harris that Shapiro will not be content playing second fiddle & is too ambitious to be trusted.

    And here is where I turn on a dime and say THAT. IS. BULLSHIT.

  271. 271.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @BR: When it was Biden/Trump, I considered the lack of enthusiasm a perfect environment to argue to show up and vote the whole ballot.

    More is done at home that directly affects you than in the White House most especially, in terms of federal offices.

    Enthusiasm is out there. We need to harness it. This message is still important with the new contender. There are a lot of people in blue or red states who think, because of the electoral college, their vote doesn’t matter. This message will help swing elections which might marginally help blue states and be game changers in red states.

    Enthusiasm is infectious. If we play like even if we’re obviously winning its important to get every vote to something important, people will show. We won’t have unpleasant surprises like NY and Ca in 2022.

    People rally to a winner. Play like we know we’re obviously the best to lead, people will rally.

  272. 272.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @CaseyL:

    So we should “comply in advance,” is what you’re saying.

    No. I’m being realistic and saying we should try to avoid potentially shooting ourselves in the foot and give an opening to those elements, especially when I/P is a salient issue among a chunk of our coalition in an important state we need to win. Don’t make it easy for them.

    I’ll say that even with added nuance to Shapiro’s positions/issues, real or perceived, the old saying, “If you’re explaining, you’re losing” applies. Perception is reality and we need to control perceptions as much as possible imo

  274. 274.

    columbusqueen

    I will also say i have no doubt that Harris will be the one in charge. I’m concerned the existing relationship she has with Shapiro will cause her to turn a blind eye to both potential skeletons in his closet & the bad optics i think he presents.

  276. 276.

    Chet Murthy

    @Martin: I have a memory of Mastriano showing up at the 1/6 coup attempt.  Pic of him outside the Capitol, so no -evidence- he went inside.  My guess is, Masters wasn’t stupid enough to do that.

  277. 277.

    Kent

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):Right, but Kelly narrowly beat Blake Masters in 2022. Same with the other state offices that year in Arizona. Warnock won a full term in 2021. However, in PA, Shapiro won by substantially more the same year as Kelly in 2022. I’m sure other factors were in play too

    Like I said, I’m a Walz guy and ambivalent about Shapiro.  But don’t dismiss his crushing of Mastriano as something pre-determined or easy.  And don’t dismiss his 61% approval rating.  PA is not California or Oregon.  It is pretty swingy and has elected a lot of GOPers to statewide office in recent years.  It takes some political talent to pull that off.

  279. 279.

    KatKapCC

    @columbusqueen: And what exactly would that mean in practice? Shapiro is gonna pretend to be POTUS? Sign executive orders? Show up before her to the SOTU and give his own speech? Hire and fire people in the Cabinet?

    There is simply no avenue for a VP to usurp authority from POTUS unless the POTUS is okay with it (as in Bush and Cheney). Anyone who thinks Harris will turn into a meek little doormat because a man wants her to has a stunningly low opinion of her.

    “Too ambitious to be trusted” — what does Big Boy think Shapiro is gonna do, knife Harris in the back and dump her body in the Potomac? Poison her food?

    Fetterman may have been strong on Israel but calling a Jew basically a shrewd, calculating little snake is like antisemitism 101.

  280. 280.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Martin:

    Good point

    @Kent:

    True. I’m sure he ran a good campaign and is a good leader/politician. I wasn’t trying to dismiss his success as solely or even mostly a product of Dobbs. It probably gave something of a small boost and running against someone as crazy as Mastriano helped, but it was his ability that got him to victory

    I do worry about what Arab/Muslim-American voters in Michigan would think of him. Plus younger voters

  281. 281.

    columbusqueen

    @KatKapCC: I don’t disagree, I merely provided the crumb of news. Did Shapiro run against Fetterman in the Senate primary? I don’t remember, but Big John does seem to have a lot of animus towards Shapiro.

  282. 282.

    206inKY

    I don’t think there’s any realistic chance Harris chooses Shapiro.

    She won’t be influenced by anti-Semitism, and anyone attacking him for being Jewish can fuck right off. His volunteer work in Israel is an asset, not a weakness.

    But I see three big problems (from least to most):

    1) Fetterman seems like a good judge of character who doesn’t wantonly plant knives. He stuck by Biden more vocally than any other Senator. His assessment of Shapiro’s actions on the parole board seems rooted in real concerns about character—and Fetterman has credibility to pull the alarm bell.

    2) School vouchers are totally toxic among swing voters, and Harris knows it. Beshear’s entire 2019 campaign was fought on the issue of protecting public school teacher pay and retirement funding, which got serious traction against the incumbent Republican (Bevin) who went after teachers. Makes no sense to wobble on this issue when she has options like Walz who was literally a teacher.

    3) The college editorial is disqualifying because of the language it uses to describe Palestinians. The one that got the most play was this: “They are too battle-minded to be able to establish a peaceful homeland of their own.” But this assertion was even worse: “Israel must now act as a peacemaker, babysitter, and police.”

    You can’t unring this bell, even if he was 20 at the time. Saying Palestinians need babysitting is just so bad. I think Harris will go in a different direction.

  283. 283.

    Martin

    @BR: Yeah, I think a popular vote win is pretty much a given. I think 4% is probably about right for the lead Harris needs for the EC to go her way.

    That is largely because CA and NY are so big and so blue that the overvote here blows out the national numbers. CA might turn out extra hard as some of us are quite desperate to excise the ghosts of the last two presidents we sent out of California.

  284. 284.

    Martin

    @206inKY: I don’t think 3) is in policy a problem. College is a place where you’re supposed to test out your stupid thoughts, and I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt that those aren’t his views now.

    But that’s not really the start you want for your VP to have to be on defense on that stuff. You’re trying to build momentum. That does the opposite.

  286. 286.

    Chet Murthy

    @Martin: it is troubling that both Shapiro’s remarks and actions around the I / P protests were in line with his writings from college.  If college was a timeWhen he was learning things and we shouldn’t hold it against him, That’s fine, But many years later it seems thatHis views are not so different.  All that said,He’s going to be a vice president not a president.  If he helps the ticket enough that’s all that matters.

  287. 287.

    Betty Cracker

    Debby update: The hurricane is about parallel to our location now, and it has been raining hard for hours. I’m looking forward to seeing how high the river is when the sun comes up! Not sure if our dirt road will be passable. No worries if not — we have plenty of supplies.

  288. 288.

    KatKapCC

    @206inKY: There are morally repugnant quotes you could dig up in Biden’s past on issues like race and crime and drugs. Did any of that stop you from supporting him?

  292. 292.

    strange visitor (from another planet)

    @Chet Murthy: vice president’s ENTIRE reason for existing is to be auxiliary president, in case the POTUS goes down.

  295. 295.

    strange visitor (from another planet)

    (i guess breaking ties in the senate is a nice perk too.)

  296. 296.

    Darkrose

    @Princess:

    I’m still partial to Buttigeig and Pritzker.

    Pritzker is great, and he’s been one of the best Dem governors my former state has ever had. However, if you’re concerned about optics, the fat Jewish billionaire is probably not the best choice. Jewish billionaire will amp up the anti-Semites to 13, and as a fat person myself, I really don’t want the next few months to be about whether the VP is going to drop dead because all fat people are inherently unhealthy

    As for Buttigeig, I still would like to see him have an elected office higher than small-town mayor under his belt before he’s considered for the big chair or the one right next to it. I really like him, and my respect for him has grown a lot since 2020, but I really think he needs more experience.

  297. 297.

    206inKY

    @Martin: I agree on college being a place to test out stupid ideas. But it’s different to put it into print, especially when tossing out essentialist characterizations of an entire people.

    Here’s the original (p.9-10):

    https://digitalcollections.lib.rochester.edu/islandora/object/ur%3A104985

    I’m confident Shapiro no longer holds these views of Palestinians, but I don’t get why we’d risk the fallout. Literally any of the other contenders would keep the attention focused on Harris and her many strengths.

  298. 298.

    Darkrose

    @Andrya:

    Look at how generations of Irish-Americans, while fighting in America’s wars and doing their part to build the country, remained concerned about British tyranny in Ireland.

    I feel like that’s really not the best analogy, given how that concern was expressed in the latter half of the 20th Century in the form of financial support to the Irish Republican Army, a terrorist organization.

  299. 299.

    Martin

    @KatKapCC: I think the concern is that John Edwards and Bill Clinton were similarly ambitious politician and that led to behavior that undermined them politically. I would characterize Gavin Newsom the same way and apart from the fundraiser during Covid, there’s no known scandalous behavior.

    We do rely on ‘red flags’ to size people up. That’s not particularly controversial.

    I’m not suggesting that these things are disqualifying about Shapiro (aping Obama’s speaking manner is a red flag for me), but if I have 6 solid candidates, none of which are materially superior to the others, I’d go with the candidate who doesn’t need to clean up their college statement and speaks in their own voice,. Is it unfair to Shapiro? Maybe, but you’re going to have to be unfair to 5 of them no matter what.

  300. 300.

    206inKY

    @KatKapCC: No, it didn’t stop me from supporting Biden. It also won’t stop me from supporting Shapiro on the ticket if that’s what we get.

    I do admire people who are ahead of the curve on culture change, like Walz establishing a gay-straight alliance as the football coach at his high school in 1999 when many others in the party were still supporting DOMA.

    We can’t have a purity test, but not starting off with multiple controversies would be nice.

  301. 301.

    KatKapCC

    @Martin: Person 1 was ambitious and did [x] bad thing. Therefore all people we have randomly decided to label as ambitious will undoubtedly do equally bad things. And by “we” I mean one damn dude who needs to learn to shut his mouth.

    Sure. Super cool. Great.

    PSA: LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN POLITICS IS AMBITIOUS. The career cannot exist without an ambitious nature. The pretzel-twisting happening here ought to be an Olympic sport.

  302. 302.

    Darkrose

    @Martin: At least I didn’t pick the incredibly white man–i.e. Astarion.

    Seriously, though, the Tadfools are all suffering from untreated PTSD. None of them needs to be anywhere near power until they get some therapy. When my drow urchin background sorcerer is the sanest, most stable of the bunch, you know there’s something wrong.

    That said, I could go for Halsin on the ticket. “JD Vance fucked a couch, but check out the druid who can turn into a bear!”

  303. 303.

    Darkrose

    @Martin:

    I would characterize Gavin Newsom the same way and apart from the fundraiser during Covid, there’s no known scandalous behavior.

    There’s the whole part where he cheated on his first wife, and the part where that wife was Kimberly Guilfoyle, which does call his judgement into question. /s

  304. 304.

    Martin

    @KatKapCC: No, I agree. But how is this any different from all of the impressions voters get off of candidates all the time. Millions of people thought Vance was a creep before they learned of his statements. Every democratic primary is filled with ‘this guy is too slick’, ‘this person seems fake’, ‘I don’t trust her’, and so on. We do that constantly. And I’d argue that more often than not, those aren’t bad instincts.

  305. 305.

    Darkrose

    @The Kropenhagen Interpretation: A main character in Baldur’s Gate 3, which Martin referenced when he talked about Shadowheart. Wyll is a (hot) brown dude with braids who’s father is in charge of the guard in the eponymous city. He’s also a warlock who gets his spells via a pact with a really awful devil.

  306. 306.

    206inKY

    @KatKapCC: Fetterman did not call him a “shrewd, calculating little snake.” Fetterman has been staunchly pro-Israel and actively engaged with Jewish groups in Pennsylvania.

    His conflict with Shapiro appears to involve their service together on the parole board. Even if he’s completely wrong, I see zero evidence that anti-Semitism is driving his complaints.

  307. 307.

    Martin

    @Darkrose: JFK Jr would kill Halsin and dump his body in a park. He’s sent us the warning, we should heed it.

    I think Karlach has potential if only because Republicans are saying Harris is luciferian. Lean into that shit.

    Astarion shouldn’t be overlooked. I think he’d be VERY appealing to a lot of Republicans. Don’t try to persuade voters from the middle, grab them from the right. Minthara could also work, but I think Astarion would be better on the campaign trail. Downside: voters didn’t like the 81 year old so putting a 240 year old on the ticket could be a big risk.

  309. 309.

    Gvg

    @KatKapCC: VP could always become President especially in these polarized times with our country awash in unregulated guns full of gun nuts and suicidal nilhists. The office does have some importance and it is a way people judge the quality of the potential presidents hires.

  311. 311.

    Gvg

    @Chet Murthy: I saw where Biden (Irish American) was involved years ago in helping to negotiate the Good Friday agreement which quieted the centuries long terroistic war between Ireland and England. Stopped bombing etc. That’s because he still cared about his families connections even though they were long time Americans first. And it is admirable. It took a lot of work to do that and many previous attempts failed. It is also why he thought Brexit was such a mess…well one reason. The Good Friday agreement took years so possibly that may be why he hasn’t been bombastic on Gaza. Knows that will take years of dedication and work to get a real solution.

  312. 312.

    Gvg

    @Chet Murthy: Freedom of religion. We CAN’T make people vote. It’s come up.

    There are also other reasons people have given that probably would stand up. Judges often don’t like giving anyone a case for claiming bias for instance.

  314. 314.

    Kay

    Teachers unions supporting Shapiro is not a good argument.

    They faced a binary choice between him and an anti -public ed Republican. Of course they did.

    Teachers unions supported Obama for 8 years – he was dreadful on public education but he was still slightly better than Mitt Romney was.
    One can support Shapiro for other reasons but vouchers are a far Right position and not mainstream in the Democratic Party. Charters are as far as Democrats have ever gone. Vouchers are Betsy DeVos territory.

    I supported Shapiro for VP because he was the safe choice but there’s just too much drip drip drip – he’s no longer the safe choice IMO.

    Vouchers plus promoting tax cuts plus harassment scandal plus wildly bigoted statement about Palestinians plus trying to impose sanctions on US companies for not supplying the unlawful settlements in the occupied territories is too much for me.
    I don’t want a drag on the ticket and he’s shaping up to be one. Beshear seems like the safest choice.

  315. 315.

    Kay

    I thought the protestors should be given leeway to make some mistakes because they’re 20 so I think the same about Shapiros horrible views about Palestinians when HE was 20 – I don’t hold it against him.
    But I don’t understand not apologizing for it. Couldn’t he say “I’m sorry, I was 20, those are reprehensible views about a whole group of people and I no longer believe them”?
    The inability to apologize is worse than bigoted beliefs at 20.

  316. 316.

    Martin

    @Darkrose: Daughter has determined the correct answer is to ship Will and Karlach, Will becomes VP for the reasons you mention and Karlach takes on the Michelle Obama fun 2nd lady role who can tell everyone to eat their fucking vegetables. Also opposing human trafficking is good social advocacy for a 2nd lady.

    While we were at it, Fallout Veepstakes goes to Hancock. Decisive, independent thinker, sharp dresser, tricorn hat to win over those Tea Party republicans. We’re not sure of his age because he didn’t become a ghoul from the bombs, but from taking too many drugs. Definitely over 35, possibly under 81.

  317. 317.

    different-church-lady

    I’m tired of the VP horserace shit. I feel like she’s getting set up to be pounded on no matter who she picks.

  318. 318.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott: There are good aguments for conditioning US military aid to Israel, or cutting it off entirely. But in the short term- as in the next few days- US forces in the area will try  to shoot down every Iranian missile headed towards Israel that they can.

    Israel will respond to Iranian retaliation this time as they did in April. But Iran’s April strike was weathered with only one casualty,* and Israel’s counterstrike was limited to warning shots at an Iranian anti-air missile base near Isfahan. There is speculation that they fired practice warheads to limit damage. If Iran’s attack this time causes large civilian casualties Israel’s response could be devastating, and that’s when the missiles will really start flying.

    * A young Bedouin girl was hit by falling debris. She suffered a traumatic brain injury but is recovering after several weeks on the hospital.

    Her family’s home is in the Negev Desert not far from an airbase that Iran targeted. Iran also targeted an IDF base in the Golan Heights. The Iranians chose two isolated military targets in April because they did not want to trigger a wider war, but they may well pick targets close to or in Tel Aviv this time because Israel struck Haniyeh in Teheran.

  320. 320.

    Sally

    @The Kropenhagen Interpretation: No one knows what you write on your ballot paper, if anything. You can write nothing, or “they’re all idiots”.  “Compulsory Voting” has also been shown to increase political engagement amongst the population. If you know you have access to a ballot, you take more interest in what’s going on.

    PS: I believe studies also indicate that with the higher the voter turn out, there is less extremism.

    PPS: And no one (citizen) should lose the right to vote.

  321. 321.

    MomSense

    @UncleEbeneezer:

    We are talking to ourselves here.  It doesn’t matter to the outside world what we say – we are not that important.  If hashing it out helps people to be better at the doors or on the phones or talking to their friends and family that is a good thing.

  322. 322.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: From Turkish military analyst Levent Kemal:

       Secretary of State Tony Blinken told his counterparts from the G7 countries that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah could start as early as Monday, , three sources briefed on the call told Axios.

    Kemal posted that last night and this morning he posted:

       Iran warned airlines to change their routes due to GPS disruptions. The route changes affected areas on.western, southern and central Iran.

    There are a lot of “rumors of war” flying around now, but Levent Kemal seems a reliable source. Kemal is a veteran and discerning reporter on military matters in the Mideast and North Africa. His reporting is featured in Middle East Eye as well as the site he co-founded, @actafabulae.

  323. 323.

    MomSense

    @Splitting Image:

    Actually when Harris was picked Democrats broke one day fundraising records which held until Harris became the presumptive nominee.

    Lots of enthusiasm.

  324. 324.

    David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch

    Shapiro’s problem is he’s an Eagles fan which will cause Steeler fans to stay home.

  325. 325.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Sally: I don’t think it’s possible to establish compulsory voting in the US–the way we frame individual liberty wouldn’t allow it… but the best thing about it is that if everyone HAS to vote, it makes it that much harder to prevent people from voting.

    The argument that “it SHOULD be a little hard to vote–it means that the people who make the effort are the thoughtful people who care enough!” (never mind the inequalities in those barriers) gets immediately short-circuited.

  326. 326.

    Matt McIrvin

    @MomSense:

    We are talking to ourselves here.  It doesn’t matter to the outside world what we say – we are not that important.

    I do still wonder about that. There are people who sweep the internet 24/7 looking for oppo and trolling material. I’ve always treated it as “anything you say can be used against you”.

  328. 328.

    MomSense

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Sure “they” could set up searches for key words or names and then what?  Some weird person on a blog that almost no one has heard of said something wrong or offensive or damaging?  We are not that important.

  329. 329.

    MomSense

    My hot take such as it is is that VP nominees don’t deliver states, including home states.  So it’s really how well they communicate, what weaknesses in the top of the ticket they compliment or reassure voters about, what the big issue is in the election, and that they do not harm the ticket.

    I think in this case it is the economy and we need to peel off the people who are worried about prices, think democrats are not good on the economy and will just try to tax people to death.

    In my mind that calls for someone like Pritzker.  He doesn’t have any complicated issues we have to explain either.  He doesn’t pull away a Senator.

  331. 331.

    Kay

    @different-church-lady:

    We are not going to have a conflict- free competitive process. I mean, honestly. We are to the point on this blog where “political races where people win and lose” can’t be discussed.

  332. 332.

    Kay

    i knew people would ruin this selection process of one out of five with preferring one of the five. So divisive to think one is better and should win and the others lose. They’re all exactly the same.

  334. 334.

    Kay

    Mistermix likes Walz. Ms. Cracker likes Mayor Pete. AL likes Shapiro. It’s permitted.

    I guess we could have 300 posts that say “we are so lucky to have such a good field to choose from” but no one is going to read 300 of them.

  335. 335.

    Geminid

    @MomSense: I think Governor Walz meets these criteria. He has a record of liberal accomplishments, and these were common-sense measures that moderate Democrats and Independents would approve.

    Walz led a stereotypically middle class life for most of his working career and can credibly assert his understanding of the challenges middle- and working-class people face. Plus, he is a savvy and effective communicator which is an important asset in a campaign of 90-some days.

  336. 336.

    MomSense

    @Geminid:

    I like him a lot!  I think he is funny and authentic.

    I’m tickled that I like every person in the running!  I’m sure they are doing all the focus groups and going through their underwear drawers and doing all the thorough vetting that we expect.
    Like I’ve been saying consistently, including through the troubles, I will vote and campaign for the Democratic ticket because there are people I care about who will be harmed if we lose.

  337. 337.

    Kay

    We can discuss the pros and cons of various candidates. No one is attacking anyone personally, they’re talking about these candidate’s records and/or their personal impressions of them. That’s what voters do too.

    Personal impressions are absolutely allowed. I do not have to be an “expert” to express a personal impression of a candidate. That’s literally what every voter does with a vote.

  338. 338.

    Kay

    I think the Greenberg case accusation about Shapiro is bullshit though. The death was declared a suicide years before his involvement. I don’t doubt that there was corruption among police and local prosecutors – obviously it’s not a suicide so someone is lying about something- but Shapiro didn’t have anything to do with it.

  339. 339.

    Kay

    More good news- this is a big jump but we’re still down from 2020 (65-35)
    But we’re getting there

    @GregTSargent

    1h

    SCOOP –> Kamala Harris leads Trump by 55-37 among Latino voters in the seven key swing states, according to the first large-sample poll of Latinos taken since she entered the race.

  340. 340.

    Kay

    @Geminid:

    The idiots in Congress who gave Netanyahu 50 standing ovations essentially gave their consent for a regional war. Absolutely reckless, dangerous people who cannot wait to get the US involved in another war. It’s like those bombs are burning a hole in their pockets and they have to use them up.

  341. 341.

    Kay

    The main reason to get interested in the VP is in the Democratic Party the VP almost always becomes the Presidential candidate. So that’s entirely rational. But anyone who opposes her pick can beat that pick later in a contested presidential primary, so save it for that race and get behind whoever she picks – you can beat him later.

  342. 342.

    tobie

    I was rooting for Buttigieg but seeing the attacks on Shapiro about Gaza, when his positions are no different than any of the other VP contenders, and possibly to the left of them, has made me want Harris to pick him. His record on education in PA is excellent as is his service in general. We need PA to win. He’s  smart, energetic, and successful as governer in a key swing state. I see nothing not to like. And I’d like to be convinced that the toughest glass ceiling–a Jewish person as America’s President or VP–can finally be broken. This thread on BJ has made me doubt that.

  343. 343.

    Betty Cracker

    @Kay: Some folks seem confused about what this blog is for, imo. Hell yes we can disagree and argue the merits of the various VP candidates. I thought the Biden stay or tap out conversation was fair game too. What wasn’t appropriate was the bullying of people who expressed dissenting views. I wish I’d done more to push back on it.

  344. 344.

    MomSense

    @tobie:

    I don’t get the attacks on Shapiro about Gaza. I can’t see that his opinion is any different from every other potential veep.

  345. 345.

    Kay

    @tobie:

    I was for Shapiro but even if you take I/P out of it he’s further Right than the other candidates – he supports private school vouchers and corporate tax cuts. Those are fundamental issues in the Democratic Party for any candidate – public education and tax policy.

    It is perfectly legitimate to not want Shapiro on just those two issues. It’s also perfectly legitimate to argue he IS further Right and being further Right appeals to a substantial portion of the Democratic Party – moderates (which was my argument – further Right than me but I’m not the bellweather of the Democratic Party). But denying he’s for vouchers and corporate tax cuts is just not true.

  346. 346.

    Kay

    @MomSense:

    Because he also wants private companies sanctioned for refusing to supply products to the occupied territories. It is lawful to do that because the occupied territories are an illegal occupation. That’s a perfectly valid point and a difference between Shapiro and Walz.

    Shapiro also wrote terrible bigoted things about a whole group of people when he was 20. Which is fine. 20 year olds can be reckless and stupid. But he hasn’t apologized to the people he insulted and that’s an issue for me. I don’t understand why he wouldn’t immediately apologize. It concerns me not as to policy but as to character. If he had written that about any other group and essentially blown it off when it when it was raised would it be disqualifying in the Democratic Party? I think it would.

  347. 347.

    Kay

    @MomSense:

    People who oppose US policy in Gaza thought Biden was callous about the loss of Palestinian lives. Not apologizing for calling all Palestinians essentially subhuman as a college student reopens that wound.

    How hard would an apology be? It’s important. Why didn’t he immediately do it? Will he at least do it now?

  348. 348.

    tobie

    @Kay: I’m going on Shapiro’s record on public education in PA. He has brought significantly more money into the public school system in his state than Walz has in Minnesota. Even if you account for the population differences between PA and MN, Shapiro still has done a better job than Walz in boosting funding public schools. And he, along with Biden, fixed a bridge on a major traffic artery in two weeks with union labor. He’s an effective governor, and he’s been friendly to labor in his state. The scrutiny that’s been directed at Shapiro ,and Shaprio alone, and the effectiveness of the propaganda campaign against him, has been a sobering experience for me. Yair Rosenberg’s article on the subject is worth reading.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/josh-shapiro-netanyahu-jewish-vp/679300/

  349. 349.

    MomSense

    @Kay:

    I agree with you.  I’m at a loss as to why he wouldn’t apologize.  It’s probably local pressure.

  350. 350.

    tobie

    @MomSense: No doubt you withheld support from Obama when he chose Biden because Biden didn’t apologize to Anita Hill, and didn’t apologize to Americans for the credit card bill or the crime bill. No doubt you lobbied hard against Biden for President because of his failure to make amends for that past. That would be consistency. Or maybe there’s something elese about Shapiro’s background that troubles you and that secret cabal (“local pressure”) that you’d rather not state explicitly.

  351. 351.

    columbusqueen

    @MomSense: Or quite possibly he still feels the same way on a gut level, which is not great. What might Shapiro blurt out in a hardball interview, I wonder?

  352. 352.

    topclimber

    @Betty Cracker: Save your energy. Don’t stress over couldah shouldha.

    Jackals gonna jackal, particularly  maybe a dozen who repeat the same howl over and over and over–one might say continuously.

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