Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory.  oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

One way or another, he’s a liar.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

Innocent people do not delay justice.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

We will not go back.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

I am pretty sure these ‘journalists’ were not always such a bootlicking sycophants.

Giving up is unforgivable.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

All hail the time of the bunny!

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

You are here: Home / Elections 2024 / Open Thread: Veepstakes – Andy Beshear

Open Thread: Veepstakes – Andy Beshear

by | 355 Comments

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This may be out of date by the time it’s posted, but even if he’s not Kamala’s Choice this time, I suspect we’re gonna hear more from Gov. Beshear:


Per the Associated Press, hit dogs holler:

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s efforts to land the No. 2 spot on the Democratic presidential ticket drew ridicule from prominent Republicans during the Bluegrass State’s premier political event.

U.S. Rep. James Comer lampooned the governor for trying to “reinvent his image from a wimpy choir boy to a liberal attack dog,” while U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell fired his own zingers at Beshear during the political speeches Saturday at the annual Fancy Farm picnic in western Kentucky.

Beshear, an effective verbal counterpuncher in prior years at the picnic, wasn’t on hand to defend himself and dish out his own barbs. Instead, he was among a half-dozen Democrats being interviewed this weekend by Vice President Kamala Harris as she closes in on choosing a running mate…

The suspense over whether Beshear will be asked to join the ticket has dominated headlines in Kentucky. On Saturday, Republicans got in their word as they dominated the stage at the picnic grounds. The political speaking is a raucous event where Kentucky politicians compete to land the sharpest — and sometimes most outlandish — barbs, complete with shouting and heckling from partisans for both parties…

McConnell, a picnic fixture who savors the verbal jousting, said Democrats had chosen an even worse presidential nominee than President Joe Biden.

“At least Biden poses as a moderate,” the senator said. “Vice President Harris doesn’t try to be anything but a San Francisco liberal.”

At a GOP breakfast on Saturday, McConnell remarked: “Who would have thought that most of the drama in the last month would have been on the Democratic side, but it has been.” After Biden ended his reelection campaign last month, Democrats quickly coalesced around Harris.

Poking fun at Beshear’s support for Harris, McConnell said it was “no surprise for a guy used to having jobs served up to him on a silver platter.” Beshear, the son of former two-term Gov. Steve Beshear, has won three tough elections in ruby red Kentucky — once for attorney general and twice for governor. The McConnell-Beshear rivalry dates back to the 1990s when McConnell defeated Steve Beshear in a Senate race…

Kentucky native / voter:

Reader Interactions

355Comments

  2. 2.

    catclub

    @Baud: Can Sherrod brown run in two states?

     

    I applaud the frontpagers cycling through ALL the likely VP candidates.  Just when I thought it was decided ( Roy Cooper!) somebody else is mentioned and examined pretty thoroughly.

     

    Cheers.

  3. 3.

    matt

    I’m with Mehdi Hassan on this 1. Walz 2. Beshear As an aside, it’s wild how bad Nate Silver is at this.

  4. 4.

    Scout211

    The media has been reporting all weekend that there are only three top candidates for veep, Kelly, Shapiro and Walz.  I’m not sure if the media really knows what the actual facts are but we will all know tomorrow morning.

    As a Californian, I really didn’t know much about any of these guys on the list of six*, so thank you for this series introducing us to all six of them, AL.

    *Except for Buttigieg who does have a national presence.

  5. 5.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @Baud:

    This.  Although as we’ve seen with other really talented, “up and coming” pols (Kander from this morning’s thread), when you’re in a state like that, it’s tough.

    That being said, Bashear has shown he can win an important, statewide office.

    Really only somebody like him can know how best to work his career and if that means taking the VP slot if offered, great.  If he has his sights set on something else, and yeah, it would  be great if sometime in the near future we could put “Senator” in front of his name, great.

  6. 6.

    dmsilev

    @catclub: I’m pretty sure Cooper bowed out of the race last week or thereabouts.

    Since the electoral threshold is “be better than ‘JD Vance’ “, I think that’s an easy bar for all of the candidates to pass. Beyond that, not sure the veep nomination will make much difference in the election, so it’s more about choosing someone that Harris thinks will be a good governing mate, not just a good running mate.

  7. 7.

    brendancalling

    I like Beshear, but I’m still team Walz. I’m not on team Shapiro. Too much baggage, and the Greenberg story is a ticking time bomb.

  9. 9.

    schrodingers_cat

    The Veep selection shows what a shitshow the open mini primary that Obama and Nancy Pelosi wanted and Biden deftly avoided, would have been

    IIRC this idea was first floated by the NYT resident Little Broder Ezra.

  10. 10.

    Anonymous At Work

    I hate agreeing with hippie-punching but I think Matt Yglesias has the right of it: Beshear’s been graded on a curve, since he can’t do anything of consequence as the veto-proof GOP Lege took away a lot of his discretionary authority.

    He’s not a bad politician and does great messaging but Vance has nothing under his belt for accomplishments and that’s a weakness to exploit.

  11. 11.

    UncleEbeneezer

    Never listen to Mehdi Hassan’s suggestions about the Dem Party.  He openly loathes it with the same energy as the GOP.

  12. 12.

    RepubAnon

    Walz or Bashear.  Given Netanyahu’s ongomg atrocities – Shapiro’s arresting protesters could cost too many young voters.

  13. 13.

    SFAW

    It’s kind of interesting (to me) that part — a large part? don’t know — of the Beshear love is “he’s REALLY from Appalachia, not like that poser PJ Dance.” I mean, who really gives a shit if he “matches up well against” the Rethug VP candidate. Well, outside of “brashstrike,” that is.

    I want the VP candidate to go after Shitgibbon; Vance is his own attack dog (in that he’ll keep saying vile things which will keep driving down his numbers). And spending any time going after anyone other than the top of the ticket is a waste of resources.

  15. 15.

    JaneE

    I would like to see all the potential VP hopefuls out on the campaign trail no matter who gets chosen.  They should unite behind whoever is chosen because Trump and Vance really need to be defeated.

  16. 16.

    Kristine

    I wouldn’t like to take Beshear or Kelly away from the positions they currently hold b/c it may be hard for another D to win those slots.

    I don’t know if Beshear is term-limited, so that may not be an issue with him. But he does seem to be somewhat of a barrier to KY becoming worse in some areas. As for Kelly, keeping the Senate will be difficult enough w/o what I would consider an own goal.

    Shapiro seems to have issues, and while it would be amusing to see Trump surrogates attempt to bash him for his aide’s sexual harassment problem, it would stick in some quarters.

    I just like Walz. Steady Eddie Midwestern vibe to balance out the perceived California what the hell ever of Harris.

    ETA: The fact that his actions over the years indicate he is just as liberal/decent is a bonus

  17. 17.

    UncleEbeneezer

    How shameful it is to find that on the 80th anniversary of Anne Frank+family’s arrest by the Nazis, her statue in Amsterdam was vandalized with not only “Free Gaza,” but also red paint on her hands. What does a Jewish teenager who was murdered by the Nazis have to do with Gaza?

    When people say that the “anti-Israel” rhetoric is not anti-semitic, there’s too many examples of this kind of behavior to show. One can certainly be critical of Israel and not hate Jews, but clearly embedded in these movements is a great deal of blatant hatred of Jews. It wasn’t enough for them to just spray paint “free palestine” on a statue of someone who was annihilated along with her family, simply because she’s Jewish.

    They’ve also put red on her hands, to symbolize blood, as if she’s somehow complicit in the deaths of Gazans—people who were born years after she had died. Why? For no other reason that she’s Jewish. THAT is antisemitism. Or Jew hatred, if that’s the term you prefer.

  18. 18.

    tobie

    I’ve said everything I have to say on this subject. I’ll support the ticket regardless of who the VP is. Would be super excited if it’s Buttigieg or Shapiro but none of that has any real bearing on my resolve to see Trump and the Republicans defeated.

  19. 19.

    Hoodie

    I’d prefer Walz.  Executive experience, personality complements Harris being the #1.  Shapiro and Buttagieg are great, but not a good fit.  Shapiro comes across as very assertive and aggressive, which is fine for the top of the ticket but not necessarily the right personality type for the second in command.  I’d put him at the top of the list for ’28 if Harris can’t get it done.  He  also is young enough to wait until ’32 if she manages to get two terms, because it’s doubtful Walz would be running.  Buttagieg is not a proven vote getter, e.g., hasn’t won a statewide office.  Better to leave Beshear in KY where he can move on to the Senate.  The likelihood of ’26 senate run may be one of the unvoiced reasons Cooper bowed out.

  21. 21.

    MomSense

    @schrodingers_cat:

    We had an open primary.  Manchin was the only one who expressed any interest and he quickly realized it was a no go.  The other contenders all quickly endorsed Harris. The rules required an open primary.  People are confusing open primary with contested primary and there was no interest in the party to go through that.

  23. 23.

    matt

    @UncleEbeneezer: it was strange to see Hassan endorsing the VP candidates I prefer on my own electability considerations. Maybe he thinks they’re too liberal and will be easy to beat.

  24. 24.

    Lumpy

    Some people may think the “weird” comment is over-rated, however it wasn’t Tim Walz who decided that moment should go viral. That phenomena just seemed to happen on its own. I think Walz is far more than just that one moment, and he shouldn’t be judged on that.

    Personally, I  think “creepy” is a better description of Trump.

    I like Walz, Buttigieg and Beshear but I’m not sure which order… supposedly, nobody votes on the basis of VP. Besides worrying about the Electoral College, lets hope they pick someone who is worth elevating to a potential presidential run in the future.

  25. 25.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Baud: I like Walz.  Would be happy to support him.  But Hassan’s knee-jerk tendency is to always throw in something divisive for our coalition.  He’s one of the worst ratfuckers on the Left.

  26. 26.

    NotMax

    Will be ecstatic when the announcement is made so this prolonged speculation salmagundi an be lad to rest.

  27. 27.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @Hoodie:

    Buttagieg is not a proven vote getter, e.g., hasn’t won a statewide office.

    I think that’s why a lot of people are thinking he’ll run for governor in MI in 2026 when Big Gretch is term-limited out.  Winning a statewide race in a state like MI is great prep for a national run.

  28. 28.

    eclare

    @Kristine:

    I noted yesterday that in Walz’s funny video last year promoting the MN state fair, he wore a camo baseball cap and a Springsteen t-shirt.  I also think he could deflect some of the “Kamala is a San Francisco lefty hippie!” message. Gawd I hope she doesn’t have a freezer full of fancy ice cream!

  29. 29.

    Chris

    @brendancalling:

    I like Beshear, but I’m still team Walz. I’m not on team Shapiro. Too much baggage, and the Greenberg story is a ticking time bomb.

    Same.  Shapiro has too much baggage.  Walz or Beshear, either works, but Walz is in a much bluer state and therefore much more easily replaced than a red state governor.

  30. 30.

    twbrandt

    A good VP pick has little upside, but a bad pick has a lot of downside (cf. JD Vance). So I’m on team Walz/Beshear. Shapiro and Kelly have some baggage that could be harmful to parts to parts of the coalition.

  31. 31.

    Jackie

    OT sorta: Which VP candidate does TCFG/Vance LEAST WANT Harris to choose?

    Besides the obvious “none of the above option”?

  32. 32.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @tobie:

    Just wanted to say, I will absolutely support and vote for the ticket if she chooses Shapiro. I apologize

  33. 33.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @UncleEbeneezer:

    But Hassan’s knee-jerk tendency is to always throw in something divisive for our coalition. He’s one of the worst ratfuckers on the Left.

    He’s simply another one with his own brand/media company to promote, thus, it’s all about getting attention to his own company, not actually helping.

    I despise media people like him more than I do your typical orifice on Faux “News”.  At least with them you know you’re dealing with a Goebbels v2.0 propaganda network.  Self-serving clowns like Hasan are far more insidious issue.

  34. 34.

    Kay

    Sorry AL I thought you were supporting Shapiro like Betty C supported Mayor Pete but you’re just running thru the candidates. My mistake.

  35. 35.

    JML

    I like Beshear. He won’t move the needle on ticket carrying KY, but that’s ok; it’s unlikely any VP moves the needle much even on their home states. (last “favored son” VP that did that was arguably Mondale. the political world has changed) He’d be an effective counter-puncher on the campaign trail and the executive experience could be useful to a Harris administration.

    Fine choice in the midst of many fine choices.

  36. 36.

    bbleh

    Beshear was my first choice, Walz has moved past him recently because he’s a little more mediagenic, and like others I’m still concerned about Shapiro’s and Kelly’s negatives.  But as previously noted, I’m 100% behind whomever she chooses, just like I was 100% behind whatever Biden’s choice was about staying in or stepping aside.

    Meanwhile, there’s work to be done

    @NotMax: yes BUT it’s DAYS of POSITIVE media for the Dems.  Only, what, 92 days left?  Every day is starting to count now.

  38. 38.

    Chris

    @Lumpy:

    Personally, I  think “creepy” is a better description of Trump.

    Part of me dislikes using “weird” as a negative simply because being weird is a morally neutral thing: kind of a lot depends on what it is that makes you weird.

    But of course that’s precisely what makes “weird” so effective, at least if we consider driving Republican voters into a frothing rage the sign of an effective attack.  To them, there’s nothing worse than being “weird.”

  39. 39.

    Hoodie

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: I’d love to see him do that.  He needs the seasoning of dealing with a state legislature.   A big part of a successful presidency is dealing with Congress. That’s another reason I like Walz, who served several years in the House.   To me, the ideal VP is a like a good XO on a ship; a guy the captain trusts, knows how the ship works, relates to the crew and doesn’t need too much attention.

  41. 41.

    Kay

    In the Democratic Party the VP is usually the next Pres candidate so rather than telling people who care about it  it “doesn’t matter” I would tell them they can oppose her VP pick when that person runs for President. That’s what primaries are for.

  42. 42.

    TBone

    Field Report from a Pennsyltucky Walmart:

    Gear:  Pink Childless Cat Lady Voting for Kamala T-shirt

    Ozark Hillbilly was correct! ☺️ I have never before been treated so kindly by so many ladies with smiling eyes going out of their way to be helpful to me in this Walmart!

    One lady loudly exclaimed OH I LOVE YOUR SHIRT SO MUCH!  She was almost crying tears of joy when she confided to us how politically alone she feels here.  I was able to loudly thank her and reassure her that she is NOT alone, that we are in fact the majority (just not in this town, but nationwide), and that WE’RE GONNA WIN!  When hubby chimed in about how great it will be to have a woman President, she looked at us and said “You don’t know how glad I am to hear a man say that!”

    Every red hat studiously avoided us.  Until …

    We got to checkout and hubby branched out to an emptier register.  He called me over, and I told the older lady next to me that she could go first.  She wheeled her cart into the checkout lane between me and hubby.  Then, she made her huge mistake 😆

    She turned around and gave me a backhanded compliment.  Oh I like you shirt, EXCEPT FOR THAT LAST WORD, KAMALA.  I retorted that she should stop being weird, very loudly.  The POC in the checkout lane next to us started to smirk.  She yelled “I AM NOT BEING WEIRD!  LOOK AT HER RECORD!” I informed her that is exactly why I’m voting for her!  That’s also when hubby stepped in.  He was still in front of her in line.  He raised his voice and said, to me, “She’s just pissed because she voted for Trump and now she can’t AFFORD a T-shirt or pants that fit!” 😆😍

    She was sputtering, trying to formulate a response when I told hubby through my loud giggling  “Come back here with me. I let her go in front of me because I was BEING POLITE.”

    She immediately STFU and her face turned bright red.

    No police arrived on scene.

    Victory is mine!

  44. 44.

    KatKapCC

    @eclare: Every sandwich she’s ever eaten has been just piles of arugula slathered in Dijon mustard on…what kind of bread would right wingers hate? Sourdough, since it’s kind of a CA thing? Ciabatta, since it’s foreign? Sprouted wheat, since it sounds like a hippie thing?

  46. 46.

    Kay

    It is just so bad that Gorsuch is issuing warnings to the elected branches on judges. Good God. There isn’t going to be a person left in this country who believes the SCOTUS is anything other than a bunch of hacks when Republicans are thru with it.

    Just no restraint or self control at all. Stop talking, you dopes.

  49. 49.

    tobie

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): No need to apologize. I just think this process has gotten super ugly, and I don’t like the concerted campaign to take down a governor who has been wildly successful at his job. We’re eating our own.

  50. 50.

    SFAW

    @KatKapCC:

    what kind of bread would right wingers hate? Sourdough, since it’s kind of a CA thing? Ciabatta, since it’s foreign? Sprouted wheat, since it sounds like a hippie thing?

    Won’t matter — cleek’s Law says they’ll hate whichever one a libtard chooses. [Even if they loved it the day before.]

  51. 51.

    JML

    @KatKapCC: @eclare: Every sandwich she’s ever eaten has been just piles of arugula slathered in Dijon mustard on…what kind of bread would right wingers hate? Sourdough, since it’s kind of a CA thing? Ciabatta, since it’s foreign? Sprouted wheat, since it sounds like a hippie thing?

    sourdough does seem to have a SF connection…but maybe it should be gluten-free? LOL

  52. 52.

    Lumpy

    @UncleEbeneezer:

    Your hate for Mehdi Hasan has absolutely nothing to do with Tim Walz, and if you are so against people being “divisive” then why are you harping on what seems to be an imaginary connection?

  53. 53.

    Kay

    Usha Vance defends her husband JD Vance’s “childless cat ladies” comments as a “quip”: “What he was really saying is that it can be really hard to be a parent in [U.S.]. And sometimes our policies are designed…[to] make it even harder… I understand why he was saying that.”

    Republicans should have nominated her. Much, much better at this than her dull lump of a husband.

  54. 54.

    brendancalling

    @Chris: my step-brother in-law, who’s a good guy but likes to bust balls, tried to tag me as “creepy uncle Brendan” to his daughters. I objected and said I was more like “weird Uncle Brendan.” So he started using that.

    Joke’s on him: his oldest daughter, now in 9th grade, thinks I’m super-cool and has sat in with one of my bands. And while she does sometime call me Weird Uncle Brendan, it’s the good kind of weird. I’m the uncle that gets you into cool music, cult movies, and underground comics.

    That said, I am comfortable calling the creepy weirdos of the GOP what they are: creeps and weirdos.

  55. 55.

    wjca

    @Baud: He may be the only one in KY who can win a Senate seat however.

    This.  With the Senate as narrowly divided as it is, every opportunity, even a longshot, needs to be seized.

    (Somewhat related: does anyone know of a case where a sittung VP opted to run for the Senate?  I’m doubting it very much, but my knowledge is, to put it mildly  imperfect.)

  56. 56.

    eclare

    @KatKapCC:

    Baguette, it’s French!  And did you hear the French blasphemed The Last Supper in the opening ceremony of the Olympics?  Sacre bleu!

  57. 57.

    narya

    In addition to liking what I’ve heard when I’ve heard him speak, the two things about Walz that really have won me over are the school meals and being the faculty person for the gay/straight alliance. He speaks about simple human kindness and decency, and he ACTS it, as well. I think that’s a powerful counter to the R meanness that permeates so much (including project 2025).

  58. 58.

    K-Mo

    This Veepstakes is really showing how deep the Dem bench is.  All of them are terrific, and that’s not even including Big Gretch.

  59. 59.

    Jackie

    @NotMax:

    Will be ecstatic when the announcement is made so this prolonged speculation salmagundi an be lad to rest.

    Ahhh, but then the arguments and disappointments over Harris’ pick will be good for multiple posts over the next few days… 🤦🏼‍♀️

  62. 62.

    Kay

    @MomSense:

    They could just do the interviews and speeches liberals do! “Rule of Law, harmless and self deprecating anedote, blah blah” They have a model of proper judicial conduct.

    This is actually why we need new rules. Republicans can’t police themselves.

  65. 65.

    SFAW

    Jesus H. Christ, is the VP-selection process going to turn this place into another Big-Endian/Little-Endian war zone?

    Yes, I see the comments “I’ll support whomever MVP chooses.” Fine, just keep to that, without calling a jackal’s integrity/whatever into question because he/she hates a particular pundit/”expert” (or some other “reason.”)

  67. 67.

    Lumpy

    I don’t care if Kamala nominates a tree stump, I’m voting against Trump, now and forever.

    If Trump loses bad enough, maybe he’ll make like Nixon and drop out of the public eye for good. Wouldn’t that be a relief!

    Make A-hole Go Away

  68. 68.

    wjca

    the second most popular Democratic governor in the country…

    A governor’s popularity, if he isn’t, might be a disqualifier.  But being popular as governor only matters if you believe the dubious theory that a VP candudate can garner you a state that you might otherwise lose.  And if Harris, with or without Beshear, are even close to taking Kentucky, we’re already in landslide territory.

  70. 70.

    narya

    @Al Rennick: My only objection isn’t about him, per se, but about the Senate; if we don’t keep the Senate but Harris wins, then she will be stymied at every turn. Also, as rikyrah points out: JUDGES JUDGES JUDGES. That also goes away if we lose the Senate.

  71. 71.

    TBone

    @Chris: WEIRD worked its magic for me today!  See #42

    The Black people in the lane next to us could barely contain their glee when that word was used!

  72. 72.

    SFAW

    @Kay:

    Republicans should have nominated her. Much, much better at this than her dull lump of a husband.

    Well, yeah, if you overlook her lying. [“What he really meant was … ” No, that wasn’t what he really meant, and you know it.]

  74. 74.

    Chris

    What’s people’s beef with Kelly?  I’ve read so much about the Shapiro wars I’ve forgotten why the other one’s controversial, if I ever knew.

    (My knee jerk reaction is also “don’t pick Kelly,” but that’s strictly because Arizona’s blueness is still very fragile and I’m queasy on general principle about taking good Democrats out of purple or red states where they’ll be harder to replace, not because of the guy individually).

  75. 75.

    NotMax

    @JML

    From a comedy set linked a week or so ago: (paraphrased from memory)

    “I live in Los Angeles. Scared all my neighbors last Halloween. I dressed up as gluten.”

  77. 77.

    eclare

    @narya:

    The free school breakfast and lunch really spoke to me too.  I know the VP has no control over that, but it shows his priorities.

    And taking his position with the gay-straight club was brave at the time.  I guess when you’ve been in the Army National Guard for a while you don’t worry about it.

  79. 79.

    SatanicPanic

    @Chris: I think the context is pretty well understood here, which is why Dem concerns about making “weird” an attack line are kind of misplaced . He’s not “quirky and delightful “ weird or even “an oddball but he’s harmless” weird . Trump and Vance are weird in just a basic “I don’t want to find out why they’re like this, I just wanna get away” sort of weird. I think everyone uses weird in that way sometimes.

  80. 80.

    Kay

    I really dislike RFK Jr – he disgusts me – but the “bear cub prank” is just so spoiled rich kid (when the ‘kid’ was 60 years old) that I can’t believe it. It’s a perfect story for that asshole, even if he is probably lying and killed the bear himself. Either way.

  84. 84.

    Jess

    Meh. Too generic. Beshear’s message and general demeanor is like a caricature of a Dem politician. The slightly whiny voice, the “love is all you need” message, the schoolboy looks… he reminds me of the Dems O’Reilly would have on his show to use as punching bags. I’m not saying that he’s not good at what he does, but someone like Walz would be so much better.

    What’s really been holding Dems back (it’s not their policies or competence) is their air of powerlessness in the face of right-wing aggression. People, especially men, respond to power. I hated that Dems kept calling Trump &Co. out as “bullies.” Yeah, I hate bullies too, and like most of the other the people who also hate bullies, it’s because I was picked on and felt helpless against them when I was young. But I learned you have to fight back, hit twice as hard, and fight fire with fire. The Quaker approach really doesn’t work in real life. So much better to call them “weirdos” and “creeps.”

  85. 85.

    SFAW

    @Chris:

    Your parenthetical comment is — for me at least — why Kelly should not be chosen. Also, there appears to be some stuff about him hawking shady vitamins or some such , allowing the Traitors to raise that as an “issue.” [I don’t recall the details, but also don’t care. It’s just background noise, to me.]

  87. 87.

    UncleEbeneezer

    “EARN MY VOTE BY AGREEING WITH ME ON EVERY ISSUE INCLUDING THE EXTREMELY NICHE ONES AND ALSO YOU MUST PHRASE YOUR DISAGREEMENT EXACTLY THE SAME WAY ME AND MY COLLEGE ROOMMATES WOULD PHRASE IT” yells a person who lives in a democracy

    I’m getting more frustrated by this as I age. I am a very liberal woman. Most people in this country are more moderate or conservative than I am. If my POTUS, Senator, or Rep shares 75% of the same views as I do, I’m pretty damn lucky. I live in a country of 300 million people.

    “We agree that more equity is needed in education but do we agree on exactly the right way to address this inequity in terms of both the short-term needs of low-income families & ALSO the long-term strength of our school system? We don’t have complete agreement on that? NO COALITION WITH YOU!”

    I’m also getting more frustrated with this b/c I can see, in real time, how it damages our electoral chances. Disagreement is good in a democracy. It’s good to have internal disagreement. It is not good when you let this disagreement fracture all possible coalitions.

    It’s also bad when the complete reverse is true for the other side. When we say they are a cult, we mean they are homogenized in their beliefs. No issue can split them. They just change their minds. “Oh, you’re a racist? You also don’t like vaccines? Me neither. Hate them.”

    Democrats will absolutely succeed in this election if we change some of our own behavior. Take some of the social-media-amped-up negativity bias & concentrate on the other side. Learn to tolerate what are fairly small disagreements btwn left, center-left, & center.

    Being tolerant of small disagreements, as well as being joyful & confident about our coalition, is how we will win this election.

  88. 88.

    Kay

    When he says “I happened to have an old bicycle in the car” I thought “jesus christ, rich people will believe anything”.

  93. 93.

    Chris

    @Kay:

    Say what you want about LGM, but I did laugh at their headline today:

    “In shocking twist, member of Kennedy dynasty made bad decisions while intoxicated.”

  94. 94.

    Belafon

    @Chris: Weird is just mild enough to get into people’s brains to cause them to look at someone more closely. Even creepy can be pushed back against.

  96. 96.

    Kay

    @UncleEbeneezer:

    This white knuckled grip on what people discuss isn’t going to work. They’re not going to take orders on acceptable discussions, nor should they. The nature of a competition is conflict.

  98. 98.

    Jess

    @UncleEbeneezer: Yes, this! I’ve pointed out to some of my more intolerant friends that Democracy is mediocre by nature; the average tends to win when it’s functioning well. It’s never going to be Utopia, and it’s not designed to be. I’ve asked my hard-left friends what they would do with all the people who disagreed with them if they got political power, and they never have a good answer to that.

  99. 99.

    Kay

    @Chris:

    I just imagine him telling these gross stories at tables full of rich dopes all over the world. That’s actually his “work”.

  101. 101.

    catclub

    @NotMax: I must respect Nikki Haley for the insight she had in January: ” Whichever party that first replaces the old man with a younger person will win.”

  102. 102.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Lumpy: Hasan is an ass-hat who always strives to divide our coalition.  It’s how he gets attention.  That’s my point.  People should be aware of that when they read him fretting about VP candidates or any other subject.  It has nothing to do with Walz.

  106. 106.

    Baud

    Kamala should name a fetus as Veep. No baggage and blunts right wing attacks that Dems want to kill babies.

  107. 107.

    les

    Sorry; don’t want somebody who wants to be nice to the “swing” voters. Keep up the weirdo approach; gimme Walz.

  109. 109.

    Kay

    @Chris:

    The stories are always about how manly he is too. “I was out falconing and I stopped to skin the bear”

    OMFG. “I definitely have a penis”. I liked lucky heirs better when they played polo and did yacht races.

  112. 112.

    Fake Irishman

    @wjca:

    Alben Barkley, Truman’s VP, won his older Senate seat back after Truman declined to run again, but I don’t know if he was the sitting VP at the time.

  113. 113.

    sdhays

    @SFAW: The correct answer is big-endian.

    At least that’s what I remember thinking the last time I cared, over 20 years ago.

  114. 114.

    KatKapCC

    @Baud: And then the posters can have a picture of her next to one of those weird in utero pics the protestors hold up outside clinics that looks a collab between Anne Geddes and Thomas Kinkade.

  115. 115.

    Steve LaBonne

    I am still team “first do no harm” and to me that’s still Walz or Beshear, preferably Walz. The other two choices are not bad or anything, just slightly higher risk for various reasons, and I don’t really believe the upsides are significant. In the end it’ll be fine whatever choice she makes.

  118. 118.

    Kay

    @MomSense:

    I went to see Scalia once and he was asked a question by a law student, which he misunderstood, and he savaged the poor guy. Just a nasty person. It’s such a stupid punching down “victory” too. Oh, you really beat that 2nd year law student, sir. Masterful!

    Get a hearing aid. You misunderstood his question. But no one said a word because lawyers are all ass kissers.

  119. 119.

    topclimber

    @Hoodie: If Shapiro can’t deliver PA as its governor what makes us think he can do it as a VP candidate?

    Let him show he can bring in PA and he will burnish his chances to be KH’s running mate when it matters most for his own presumed Presidential ambitions–that is, in her second term. Let him compete with Pete and Gretch and the rest of the bench.

    But Kamala will sort that out. Whoever she wants, I want.

    ETA: Forgot this is a Beshear thread. Love you too baby!

  120. 120.

    Eolirin

    @narya: It’s gonna be hard enough to get Tester reelected. Though if we succeed there, at least we’d get two years with a Dem replacement to Kelly before we potentially lose his seat.

    It’s still better if he stays there as long as he can though.

    2026 we’ve got a tough race in Georgia, and only NC as a pickup opportunity. Adding another tough race in AZ in a midterm feels really risky.

  121. 121.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    Beshear *is* term-limited, AFAIK.

    And being kinda powerless and dealing with a hostile legislature, yet doing some good? That sounds like the VP job, actually.

     

     

    Frankly, I’d like Shapiro to stay on the job for another term. He’s shown he can fix things, there’s plenty more to be done.

  124. 124.

    MomSense

    @Kay:

    The podcast Maintenance Phase covered him in depth.  They did such a good job of taking him apart. Their main subject is diet and wellness so they are experts in scams.

  127. 127.

    Kent

    @SFAW:It’s kind of interesting (to me) that part — a large part? don’t know — of the Beshear love is “he’s REALLY from Appalachia, not like that poser PJ Dance.” I mean, who really gives a shit if he “matches up well against” the Rethug VP candidate. Well, outside of “brashstrike,” that is.

    He might be FROM Kentucky.  But he is the son of a 2-term Kentucky Governor who attended Vanderbilt instead of say Western Kentucky and then went on to get his law degree from UVA.  So he doesn’t exactly come from some backroads Appalachian holler and isn’t the son of coal miners

    Both Walz and Shapiro come from much more humble roots than Beshear.  Walz especially of course.   But Shapiro’s dad was a navy medical officer and is now a pediatrician and his mother is a teacher.  So solidly middle or upper middle class.

  129. 129.

    Kay

    @MomSense:

    Liberal health care workers love that podcast. My daughter told me they love the debunking of wellness scams. My daughter sounds so weary when she says “to lose weight you need a calorie deficit” – like she might start crying :)

  133. 133.

    Hoodie

    @topclimber: Shapiro might be worth a marginal few points in PA but there’s no saying that another pick wouldn’t do nearly as well.   I don’t have any particular opinion on his supposed ability to bring in PA or baggage that might be a negative.   Just watching him, he’s looks like a guy who wants to be president – now.  I’ll admit, the whole “Obama impressionist” thing on the Daily Show struck me as a little strange, but that’s just one data point.  Let him go through some primaries to see if that wears well.  I like Walz because he has the requisite experience and communications skills but doesn’t seem to openly aspire to the big office.

  134. 134.

    JML

    @Snarki, child of Loki: And being kinda powerless and dealing with a hostile legislature, yet doing some good? That sounds like the VP job, actually.

    Lol, not wrong. the VP position has unofficially evolved for smart administrations, but officially it doesn’t have lot to do.

    I think Harris will pick someone she likes and trusts to be a real partner. She and her team know there won’t likely be a major impact with any of the top choices under consideration, and I think she wants a #2 who she can deploy to handle things and be trusted to reinforce and amplify her messages. I think any of the picks we’re hearing about can do that, though for all of them it’ll be a bit of an adjustment to not being “the one”.

    I’d love to see Beshear in the Senate, though. (still a fine VP pick)

  135. 135.

    Kent

    @VeniceRiley:How many women and gays in Kentucky die if Beshear gets veep? That’s the stakes.

    He is term limited and basically neutered by the KY legislature who have a veto proof majority.  He will be out of office in two years regardless.

  137. 137.

    HumboldtBlue

    BREAKING: HAPPENING NOW: Arizona Republicans endorse Vice President Harris and slam Trump for his attacks on democracy. GOP leaders will form a new advisory committee to help the Harris for Arizona campaign reach Republicans who will reject MAGA from now until November

  138. 138.

    topclimber

    @LadySuzy: I would like to see him as Secy of Housing etc. You know he would help make things better and might even make a name for himself among the countless normies struggling to make rent each month.

    I hear people have a hard time housing their cats, much less their kids.

    Couple of years of that, a stint as governor of Michigan and then bring on 2032.

  139. 139.

    narya

    @Hoodie: I like Walz because he has the requisite experience and communications skills but doesn’t seem to openly aspire to the big office.

    I can see him as someone who serves as VP, well, for two terms, and then says, “Gonna retire now and spend time with my family” and of course will also volunteer for stuff all over the place.

  140. 140.

    KatKapCC

    @Baud:

    Joe Machine

    I don’t know if that was autocorrect or on purpose, but either way, I like it, since he has the personality of a clothes dryer.

  142. 142.

    BlueGuitarist

    @Kristine:
    Kentucky governors are limited to 2 consecutive 4-year terms, elected in the year before presidential elections (A. beshear in 2019, 2023).

  143. 143.

    topclimber

    @Jess: It’s hard to do Friendly Persuasion with people who hate your guts–IOW, not a chance in hell of being friendly.

  144. 144.

    TBone

    Awwww shit, here we go.  Vanguard has never been this lightning quick on the draw in sending snail mail Notice of Important Changes to Index Fund before:

    The Fund has revised its diversification policy blah blah blah…Shareholder approval will not be sought if the Fund crosses from diversified to nondiversified under such circumstances….(much language about risk follows)

  149. 149.

    Chief Oshkosh

    Too many other things to worry about and work on that I have at least a meager chance at influencing. Thus, I will ONLY vote for…

    whomever VP Harris chooses.

    :)

  151. 151.

    Jackie

    @VeniceRiley:

    How many women and gays in Kentucky die if Beshear gets veep? That’s the stakes.

    Who moves up as governor should Beshear be the nominee and Harris wins the election? A Democrat or a MAGA?

  152. 152.

    Almost Retired

    OK, that’s it.  I’m on my way to LAX right now to force my way onto a flight to Washington.  After which I will figure out a way to break into the Naval Observatory and in a very non-threatening manner demand that MVP JUST FUCKING ANNOUNCE YOUR PICK NOW because I can’t take any more of the speculation and punditry.  Wish me luck.

  154. 154.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @narya: I think Walz will appeal to the 2028/2032 aspirants for just that reason.  He is an asset to the ticket now, but he is probably not a rival for the top slot down the road.

  160. 160.

    SatanicPanic

    I think one of them should have grown a mustache. When was the last time we had one of them on a ticket?

  161. 161.

    Josie

    I watched a clip of Shapiro yesterday. I will admit to knowing nothing of his politics or background. My spidey sense, however, told me that he would not be a person who is comfortable in a number two slot. Walz did not strike me that way. But, as others have said, I will follow Kamala over the cliff if needed.​

  163. 163.

    Kay

    @JSweetLI

    SCOOP: Close relatives of the fiancé of Ellen Greenberg, whose 2011 death was controversially upheld as a suicide by then-PA attorney general Josh Shapiro’s office in 2022, have several social ties to not only Shapiro and his family, but also to the Biden family, according to multiple reports and an analysis of social media postings. Greenberg’s family believes she was murdered and last month the PA Supreme Court announced it will hear their wrongful death civil appeal

    The plot was bigger than we thought. This is why no one should listen to true crime people. The common thread is going to be “they all came from Pennsylvania!”

  165. 165.

    Jackie

    @catclub:

    I must respect Nikki Haley for the insight she had in January: ” Whichever party that first replaces the old man with a younger person will win.”

    She said that as a threat to GQPers… Hinting if Biden dropped out before the election and Harris became the presumptive nominee.

    But, I sincerely hope she’s proven correct!

  169. 169.

    raven

    I’m watching our local county team in the Little League World Series. Forty years ago I was responsible for the program.

  170. 170.

    Mousebumples

    @narya: enjoy! My fave Wisconsin breweries are more N/NE/E – Central Waters (Amherst, I think) and 3 Sheeps (Sheboygan). But lots of good beer in Wisconsin!

  172. 172.

    stinger

    From the Yglesias tweet in the OP:

    having a basically powerless job in the face of a veto-proof GOP majority

    Probably others have said this in the 155 comments above, which I shall now proceed to read, but here goes anyway:

    That sounds like good practice for being VP, unless we can pull it off in the Senate!

  173. 173.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Josie: Walz was a CSM and a 1SG.  Those jobs consist of providing absolute public support for your CO in public and being completely frank with them in private.

  178. 178.

    Jackie

    @Baud: Only if the fetus passes the “needs to be 35 yrs old” test.

    IF the fetus was from a frozen embryo for 34 years… that may fit the evangelical/MAGA requirement…🤔

  181. 181.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Mousebumples: They are also supposed to be the voice of the enlisted soldiers.  Some are better than others at that. My guess is Walz was good at it.

  186. 186.

    SatanicPanic

    @KatKapCC: probably some 19th century Monopoly man – looking guy.

    No one really switches things up mid-term either. I think it would have been amazing if GWB went on vacation and came back with a mullet. Maybe BC could have started embracing the slick Willy thing with a greaser haircut. I want a man to show the world that hey it’s ok to experiment with your looks. So many dudes get to have no fun.

  188. 188.

    Kay

    @raven:

    oh that’s nice. I met a great old guy from West Virginia (originally) who worked for Little League baseball before he retired – in a hospital waiting room! My youngest helped him with a problem he had with the tablet he was looking at.

  192. 192.

    Eunicecycle

    @Kay: but I don’t think she’s telling the truth! That’s NOT what he was saying. He was saying childless people have no stake in the future. If he had said anything remotely like she said he wouldn’t be in hot water now.

  194. 194.

    Anoniminous

    @HumboldtBlue:

    That is incredibly & majorly good news.  Biden won Arizona (11 EVs) by 10,457 votes or 0.30% of the total vote.  Shifting even a couple of thousand votes would provide a much needed cushion.

  196. 196.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @raven: Artillery and engineer lower enlisted soldier can be either very smart or among the dumbest in the army.  Some of the work simply requires a strong back.  Those guys will do their initial enlistment and get out.  The guy ms who stay in and get promoted tend to be some of the smartest NCOs in the army.  The job gets pretty technical pretty fast.

  197. 197.

    raven

    @Kay: To be honest I’ve never been crazy about the structure of  Little League. They play during school in the spring and, after the season, put together “All-Star” teams made up of the best players in the program and then go into the World Series.

  201. 201.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @raven: Truck drivers need to be able to read a map and do maintenance on rhetorical trucks without an NCOs standing over them.

  202. 202.

    TBone

    Five secretaries of state plan to send an open letter to billionaire Elon Musk on Monday, urging him to “immediately implement changes” to X’s AI chatbot Grok, after it shared with millions of users false information suggesting that Kamala Harris was not eligible to appear on the 2024 presidential ballot.

    The letter, spearheaded by Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon and signed by his counterparts Al Schmidt of Pennsylvania, Steve Hobbs of Washington, Jocelyn Benson of Michigan and Maggie Toulouse Oliver of New Mexico, urges Musk to “immediately implement changes to X’s AI search assistant, Grok, to ensure voters have accurate information in this critical election year.”
    https://digbysblog.net/2024/08/05/transactional-no-corrupt/

    Important article!

    Musk’s PAC and hinky “voter registration” effort:

    A person with direct knowledge of the PAC’s operations told CNBC that, at one point since the group registered with the Federal Election Commission in May, the links on the website were functioning properly — but admits now they’re not.
    The group is planning to launch a new website in the coming weeks, this person explained. The person declined to be named in order to speak freely about private matters.

  206. 206.

    scav

    @Eunicecycle: Of course it’s not the truth.  The “better at” was merely in coming up with a bog-standard “plausible” lie rather than repeatedly hitting your head with a shovel to pound yourself deeper into the hole you’re digging. Man can’t even use a shovel correctly.

  210. 210.

    Princess

    Beshear is the most boring pick so probably the correct one. No obvious upside beyond the others. No real downside apart from loss of an opportunity to take a senate seat we’d likely not win anyway. He’s young so won’t upstage MVP.

  211. 211.

    narya

    @Mousebumples: Central Waters always does a tap takeover at Lucille for Great Taste Eve, and we have gone many times to sample their special tappings! Just had two of their beers last night–a barrel-aged imperial stout and a red ale. I keep meaning to get to 3 Sheeps when we go to Road America, but we haven’t managed it yet.

  212. 212.

    Citizen Dave

    I’m really meh on Beshear.  Watched the clips.  Bully for his success in KY, but I think in these other states the strategy should be energize good, decent people to vote for our side (it’s happening already), not to appeal to the Orange Man voter.  If you’re voting for dictator-wannabe con man/mental patient, all is lost.  KY must be a special case

    ETA: Ha!  Yes, agree with Princess 2 comments up, Beshear seems earnestly boring AF.

  214. 214.

    cain

    Can we create a new thread – this one implies that Beshear is the pick and I keep getting triggered. :D

  215. 215.

    raven

    @Omnes Omnibus: I was a truck driver in the ammo platoon in Korea and just a truck driver in a signal outfit in Vietnam. I’d been on enough convoys that they had me show the way (no maps involved)! We had just gotten the new “multi-fuel” deuce and a half’s and they forbid us to do anything but drain the air tanks and fix flats!

  216. 216.

    cain

    @Princess:

    We do not want boring at this point. We want what Biden was for Obama. They need a really tight team.

    One thing I like about Mayor Pete and Walz is that they are closely aligned ideologically with Harris.

    Harris was more liberal than Biden and pushed him to be more liberal on issues. We don’t want the opposite dynamic here.

  219. 219.

    PST

    @matt:

    As an aside, it’s wild how bad Nate Silver is at this.

    It’s been a few years since I read Silver in any way, shape, or form, but someone sent me his Shapiro argument, and the statistical, polling part of it makes some sense. I was not impressed by the rest. Basically, Silver says that if the Electoral College result comes down to a single state, it is far more likely to be Pennsylvania than any other. He is currently rating Harris as slightly ahead in predicted popular vote and ever so slightly ahead in the electoral vote. If the contest moves substantially one way or another then there won’t be a single state that makes the difference, but if it stays tight then Pennsylvania is sufficiently big and close that it could tip the election. He put the probability of PA being the hinge state at 35%, compared to Wisconsin and Michigan at 14% and 12% respectively. I certainly can’t vouch for his math or his model, but at least he’s thinking quantitatively. By his calculation, if Shapiro can move the needle by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania, it will improve Harris’s chances of winning the electoral vote by 1%. That’s not much, but the conventional wisdom is that the choice of VP matters hardly at all, so that is a tangible reason picking Shapiro, and there is nothing similar to recommend any of the others. I’m not subscribing to this — I’m more of a vibe guy myself — but I found it to be food for thought.

  220. 220.

    KatKapCC

    @cain:

    We want what Biden was for Obama.

    But in a demographic sense, Biden was “boring”. I don’t think it’s pure coincidence that Obama and HRC both chose white dudes as their running mates.

  222. 222.

    Scout211

    @Scout211: Oops. timed out.

    Since we’ve moved off topic:

    PSA for university employees and retirees:  This may be the reason my husband’s university abruptly moved everyone’s retirement accounts to Fidelity:

    In January 2023, some 250 financial consultants working for TIAA, a giant investment advisory firm, were summoned to Texas for a four-day meeting. The event was called “A New Day for Financial Consultants,” referring to TIAA representatives who handle retirement plans for thousands of nonprofit institutions like Boston College and Tuskegee University. During 30 hours of sessions, TIAA representatives were trained on how to get clients to “take action” in their accounts and change their investments using an in-house advice tool.
     
    Only later did the firm’s financial consultants learn what was behind the training push — a drive by TIAA to offset troubling losses in its core business of handling institutional retirement accounts. Getting thousands of TIAA clients to implement the in-house advice tool would do the trick.

    TIAA says its tool provides clients with “objective recommendations that are suited for your investment needs.” But a whistleblower complaint filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June and shared with NBC News says TIAA stands to reap billions in new revenues when clients use the tool because it quietly steers them into two in-house TIAA investment products that yield the firm significant profits.

  224. 224.

    206inKY

    The 2019 campaign was a block-by-block grind against a lunatic that we barely won thanks to an impeccable campaign operation.

    The 2023 campaign was a different story: clear dominance against a formidable candidate in Cameron thanks to Beshear’s success on the job and a laser-focused message on abortion. His numbers in Louisville and Lexington were similar in 2019 and 2023; the difference was that he made inroads into deeply red counties, even winning an outright majority in several eastern Kentucky Trump+20 counties. Check out both maps. The guy is the real deal.

    Also I can attest that Beshear is very effective at motivating district leaders and volunteers, including hiring and showing kindness to people who supported his primary opponents in 2019.

  226. 226.

    Martin

    @PST: I can vouch for Nates math. That’s absolutely his area of expertise. Interpretation of a model is a whole other skill set that I’ll let others decide if he’s good at or not.

  228. 228.

    Mousebumples

    @narya: 3 Sheeps does brewing and bottling in an old Pepsi (*maybe Coca-Cola?) facility. I looooove their barrel-ages beers, if that’s your thing. I can usually find The Wolf in grocery stores – though it’s released in May, so I’m not sure if it’s still around. Veneration is a fall barrel aged option that’s usually in stores across Wisconsin as well.

  229. 229.

    Gvg

    @Chris: That is the main problem. He is Senate. Judges, judges, judges.

    The 2nd issue is a vote against a labor bill, which may have been explained and Ok.

    A third issue is a rumor of cheating on Gabby, which may be baseless too and I saw it first in a British news source. I think the Guardian? I have noticed British news like those types of stories more than we do and don’t always get thing right. Uh, not that ours do either just different flaws. anyway not sure about giving any weight to this.

    4th, he is more conservative than most democrats these days. He can win in a barely purple state, but the majority of the country feels held back by retrograde kooks and not only want to defeat the abortion banning racists, we want progress on a bunch of stuff.

  230. 230.

    Martin

    @Scout211: Yeah. My dad ran an annuity at TIAA a million years ago and has been commenting on what a shitshow they’ve become compared to how good they were when he worked there.

  233. 233.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @Kay:

    Usha Vance defends her husband JD Vance’s “childless cat ladies” comments as a “quip”: “What he was really saying is that it can be really hard to be a parent in [U.S.]. And sometimes our policies are designed…[to] make it even harder…

    Usha needs to explain her own comment explaining her hapless partner’s foot in the mouth.  Because yes, Usha, “your” policies, i.e. Republican policies, do make being a parent and being a kid even harder in particular, and they make being a living, breathing, eating human being harder in general. Maybe re-examine your life choices?

  235. 235.

    oldgold

    @TBone: This was the plan – cool the economy.  Why is everyone surprised?  Perhaps, the mark was slightly overshot, but the fed can fix that.  Generally, the US economy is in good shape.

    Don’t let MAGA  America Lasters and Rooskie Bots scare you.

  237. 237.

    Hoodie

    @PST: It may not mean much in terms of winning the election, but having a good VP can certainly help your presidency.  Biden was invaluable to Obama, negotiating with Congress, managing the Recovery Act, creating space for changes like supporting gay marriage.   I’m not sure it’s worth taking Shapiro just for a 1% improvement in odds.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the current finalists all have similar impact electorally, with a slight edge to Shapiro, and the choice will boil down more to which candidate Harris is most comfortable working with in the long term.

  238. 238.

    Mousebumples

    Other news…

    https://bsky.app/profile/phillewis.bsky.social/post/3kyyazclbs52n

    Wow: Bloomberg News has fired star reporter Jennifer Jacobs, one of two who broke the Evan Gershkovich embargo, according to Vanity Fair and Washington Post

    Background: A Bloomberg reporter has been fired after breaking an embargo to prematurely report that Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan had been released by Russia.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/evan-gershkovich-release-embargo-bloomberg-fired_n_66b0f58ce4b0f21c1147152a?x2

    From what I’m seeing on bsky, it looks like she was a Trump mouthpiece.

    Consequences.

  241. 241.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    @Sure Lurkalot: is anyone going to believe her [Usha Vance]? All you have to do is play the clips, it’s not even close. I suppose she has to say something, but Jeez.

    First rule of holes: stop digging.

  243. 243.

    Mousebumples

    https://bsky.app/profile/joshuajfriedman.com/post/3kyy6yrvo4c25 (must be logged in to view)

    Former Marion police chief Gideon Cody, who led a raid on the Marion County Record newspaper, will be charged with interfering with the judicial process, special prosecutors announced Monday https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/kansas/article290756024.html

    Check out @marisakabas.bsky.social’s terrific reporting from Marion here

    https://bsky.app/profile/marisakabas.bsky.social/post/3kyxszim4zk2v

    FULL 124-PAGE REPORT HERE: https://www.ksn.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2024/08/Special-Prosecutors-press-release-re-Marion-County-8.5.2024.pdf

  244. 244.

    KatKapCC

    @Mousebumples: Yikes, that’s just a really dumb move. Did she think no one would notice? And there would have been multiple people involved in getting the story edited and posted, too…

  245. 245.

    Kent

    @cain:

    We do not want boring at this point. We want what Biden was for Obama. They need a really tight team.

    One thing I like about Mayor Pete and Walz is that they are closely aligned ideologically with Harris.

    Harris was more liberal than Biden and pushed him to be more liberal on issues. We don’t want the opposite dynamic here.

    I disagree.  At least with the idea of looking for another Biden.  Every pairing is unique in their own way.

    Obama was 46 when he began running for president and had a whopping 3 years of a Senate career under his belt.  A seasoned politician like Biden with decades of public service under his belt made sense.  Biden was 66 years old when Obama picked him as his VP and was already something of an elder statesman.

    By contrast, Harris is 59 and will have turned 60 by election day.  She has nearly 20 years of experience in statewide and national office.  Well over a decade more than Obama had in 2008.  So the calculation is different.

    I actually think the Clinton/Gore model makes more sense for Harris.  She doesn’t need to pick some elder mentor like Biden was for Obama. But rather a peer governing partner of her generation.  Which Walz, Shapiro, or Beshear would provide.  All of them are experienced politicians (Walz the most so) but they are more peers of Harris.  None of them are elder statesmen types that Biden was in 2008.

  246. 246.

    Soprano2

    @Kay: They believe they are above everyone else. They have placed themselves there, out of reach of ordinary people. I think they have no idea how they look to the average person. Thomas looks so, so corrupt, it’s pathetic.

  247. 247.

    Jackie

    @raven: COOL! Our Kennewick, WA LLAS team is also in the LLWS regionals! I love the LLWS!

    ETA I see Georgia and TN are tied and going xtra innings!🤞🏻

  248. 248.

    Leto

    @Omnes Omnibus: so this is where the advancement of tech between our two generations becomes noticeable. Blue Force Tracker is a comprehensive software suite that enables real time tracking of the entire battlefield. In simplistic terms, it 1) lets you know your position, the rest of your teams position, as well as hostile positions and 2) it’s your GPS that navigates you. I was responsible for maintaining this system for my team in Iraq. This is pretty much how you’ll navigate if you’re in any motorized vehicle (mounted). In dismounted situations, you’re back to paper maps and handheld GPS equipment (which also has its peculiarities).

    I’ll be honest when I say I don’t know how much your average Army lower enlisted uses BFT, but I know if you have a chance of sitting in the vehicle commanders position then you’ll be trained. Although, as I told my team, it’s pretty damned easy to understand/use.

  250. 250.

    Soprano2

    @Kay: Sure, a “quip” that he’s said more than once and something he really seems to be obsessed with.

  253. 253.

    KatKapCC

    @Mr. Bemused Senior: “Excuse me, but when my husband called people without children ‘psychopaths’, all he meant was that they were on the path of a psychological journey toward a better understanding of different experiences of society.”

  256. 256.

    Kent

    @Scout211: TIAA was once a decent outfit but they really seem to have lost their way.

    They served a purpose when they first started.  But these days with so many other good options like Vanguard and Fidelity they really have run past their pull date.

  257. 257.

    Kent

    @206inKY:Guardian reporting it’s down to Walz or Shapiro.

    This is not really news.  We already knew it was likely to be Walz, Shapiro, or Kelly and Kelly took his name out of the running over the weekend.  So anyone can do that math.

  258. 258.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @MomSense: Maintenance Phase is one of my bookmarked podcasts along with If Books Could Kill (which just re-released their Hillbilly Elegy episode).

    Michael Hobbes who IMHO is an excellent researcher and astute observer, is the co-star of both.

  260. 260.

    Darkrose

    @Kay: I absolutely love Maintenance Phase, and I adore Aubrey and Mike. They are wonderful; I will be wearing my Methodology Queen t-shirt when I go out today.

  261. 261.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @brendancalling:

    And while she does sometime call me Weird Uncle Brendan, it’s the good kind of weird. I’m the uncle that gets you into cool music, cult movies, and underground comics.

    Yep. There’s “Weird Al” (Yankovic) and “WTF dude?!” weird. Context is pretty clear which one people mean.

  262. 262.

    Darkrose

    @Sure Lurkalot: Add in You’re Wrong About and you have the complete Michael Hobbes Cinematic Universe!

    The Hillbilly Elegy episode was one of IBCK’s best, which is a pretty high bar.

  264. 264.

    Kelly

    @Omnes Omnibus: They are also supposed to be the voice of the enlisted soldiers.

    I have a cousin that retired as an Army CSM. 36 years in the Army. After a few years of travel and woodworking he grew worried about fellow career military retirees that were not adjusting well to civilian life and now he’s tracking down and counseling troubled vets.

  265. 265.

    Mike E

    We interrupt this VPstakes extravaganza for .. Olympic soccer! Morocco v Spain semifinal is 66 mins in and is real a barn burner, 1-1. The main ref got chipblocked and had to be replaced by an alternate. The Moors are at the gates! Pigeons flocked to the pitch add an inner-city park vibe to the proceedings.

  266. 266.

    Scout211

    @Baud: I missed that news.

    It was premature in a tweet that was deleted.
    Link

    Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) on Sunday deleted a post on the social platform X in which he said his mission is now “serving Arizonans” and stoked further speculation about Vice President Harris’s running mate search.

    Kelly, who is on the shortlist to be Harris’s vice presidential pick, had issued a statement Sunday on X suggesting he was ultimately not selected for Harris’s ticket.

  269. 269.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Leto: GPS was issued down to platoon leaders during the first Gulf War.  Guns were positioned by having the recon  and survey team mark a spot on the firing point.  The platoon leader or platoon sergeant would then “lay” the guns using an aiming circle (basically old fashioned surveying techniques).  Most of us got around using map and compass.  Artillery, by its nature, required far more precision than others.

  270. 270.

    Martin

    @Kay: My observation is that people are getting a little blue MAGA around here, where negative observations about whoever people have attached themselves to is responded to very loudly, or that they have to leave, etc. We can still barely make observations on the Biden campaign performance.

    There’s detached competition and there’s fanboyism and the latter seems to be where the flashpoints show up.

  271. 271.

    Soprano2

    @Kay: I started listening to it when I saw it recommended on here, and I love it too! They’re funny and impart a lot of good information. Their latest was going after some of the trans bullshit.

  273. 273.

    Soprano2

    @HumboldtBlue: I think this is mostly unprecedented. How long before the press starts talking about “Biden/Harris Republicans” the way they obsessed over “Reagan Democrats”?

  274. 274.

    tam1MI

    @tobie:  like the concerted campaign to take down a governor who has been wildly successful at his job.

    I wonder if there are not some behind-the-scenes stuff going on with the campaign against Shapiro. (Speculation incoming…) It’s like somebody got ahold of his oppo file and released it into the wild in carefully controlled bursts. (Shades of the DNC email hack?)

    (More speculation incoming…) It’s well known that main thrust of the campaign to force Biden to step aside came from Dem moderates and the main thrust of the campaign against Shapiro is coming from Dem progressives, could this be a tit-for-tat thing? Or could it be a tit-for-tat thing against AIPAC for Jamal Bowman?

    I suppose we will all find out a few months from now when the tell-all books full information withheld from us get published…

  276. 276.

    Scout211

    @Mousebumples: Now I feel awful.  I was the first jackal with a comment, “Bloomberg news is reporting . . . “

    I had no idea that they violated the news embargo.  Ugh.

    But it’s good she was fired. The news service also sent apology letters to all the families of the prisoners.

  278. 278.

    M31

    @Scout211: ​
     

    ugh that pisses me off — my university just forced us all to move to TIAA, though I just kept all my Vanguard Target date fund $ where they were, just enjoying the dull index-fund life over here woo hoo

  279. 279.

    Anonymous At Work

    @stinger: I made the opposite point.  Vance has no bills to his name, so having a VP candidate that’s a governor also with no bills to their name doesn’t contrast.  Not friendly.

  280. 280.

    Kristine

    @HumboldtBlue: I am trying to adjust to this “Republicans for Harris” wavelet. It seems to be building into an actual wave. Did anything like this happen in 2016 or 2020? I don’t recall.

  281. 281.

    Mousebumples

    https://bsky.app/profile/taniel.bsky.social/post/3kyyckpwffs2z

    NEW: Michigan GOP had engaged in a brazen maneuver to gut 2 citizen-led initiatives on labor.

    The Michigan supreme court just struck back: Ruling increases minimum wage, set sup new paid sick leave.

    And it’s also a big affirmation for a right to direct democracy: https://boltsmag.org/direct-democracy-ruling-michigan-supreme-court/

    What also matters: This decision was 4-3, a party-line decision with the 4 Democratic justices in the majority & the 3 Republicans dissenting.

    Two seats are on the ballot in November, & the court could flip.

    Just a striking example of why high courts matter.

    I might need a deeper local explanation of what’s going on in MI. I’ve saved that article to read after my upcoming meeting, but sounds good, I think!

  282. 282.

    Chris

    @Soprano2:

    Oh, probably never.  The press liked Democrats who voted Republican.  They don’t like Republicans who vote Democrat.

    But that doesn’t mean it won’t have an impact: this isn’t the kind of thing you can just keep a lid on.

  284. 284.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @tam1MI: Someone I know thinks that the release was intended as a trial balloon.  The Harris campaign wanted to 1) see how people would react and 2) inoculate him against a later release of the info.  It is Machiavellian but possible.

  285. 285.

    Martin

    @TBone: I don’t think so. All indications were we’re headed for a soft landing. Intel and Amazon shitting the bed – for reasons that started years ago – seems to be the big catalyst here. The layoffs will hurt in their respective markets, but these were strategic mistakes within these companies that originated between 10 and 15 years ago that are just now coming due.

    They certainly caught out a lot of unaware investors that don’t understand the implications of those problems, and are unsure what to do about it. Buffet bailing out of Apple is probably nothing more than taking profit in a sector he quite famously said he doesn’t understand.

    My guess is we get a short term rebalancing of everyone’s portfolio, and then things settle down when the other shoe doesn’t drop. IMO.

  286. 286.

    Kent

    @Soprano2: The timing is working out well.

    First we have JD Vance which destroyed any convention momentum Trump might have gotten

    Now we have the Olympics which is putting the country into a feel good patriotic mode rather than the dark gloom of MAGA.

    Next we have the VP pick which will capture more positive attention if they don’t fuck it up.

    Then finally the Dem Convention which should function as a coronation and generate lots of unity and great speeches from across the Democratic spectrum in contrast to the cult fest that was the GOP.

    But make no mistake.  We face a tough slog ahead and the orcs are still at the gate.   This election was always going to be close because Hillary was right.  Half the fucking country is in fact deplorable.

  287. 287.

    Leto

    @Omnes Omnibus: true, regarding artillery; part of the reason for BFT is reducing cognitive load on the vehicle commander in terms of keeping track of where you are (navigating from point A to B), while also providing increased battle space awareness of both your position, your teammates, as well hostile forces. Def still use map and compass, but that’s primarily dismounted situations.

    Alsonjust a side note on accuracy: we had to change how GPS displayed information because we had too many observers/SOF calling artillery/air strikes down on themselves due to how the GPS units displayed the information. The after action reports on those found that the person didn’t always recognize that they were calling in their own coordinates. So we had to make fundamental changes to the display information, with the unit basically saying “THIS IS YOUR POSITION”. I’ve had airmen ask me why it didn’t originally do that, and I was like: engineers aren’t out in the field doing this. You learn these lessons in blood/lives. Much like OSHA rules.

  288. 288.

    Baud

    @Kent:

    This election was always going to be close because Hillary was right.  Half the fucking country is in fact deplorable.

     
    Hillary said half of Trump supporters were deplorable.

  289. 289.

    TBone

    @Martin: my hubby informed me last week that we (teh market) were going in the shitter.  There was a tech-based “correction” day last week, upon which he issued his warning to me.  He pays attention to it every single day.  I have no crystal ball except hubby and the history of wealthy Rethug hissy fits when Dems are in charge.  And we are very in charge right now.

    People blamed Dubya’s crash on Obama.

    Jerome Powell is not to be trusted.  I did my research about who he hangs out with.

  292. 292.

    Martin

    @tam1MI: That doesn’t make sense. The folks that were loudest against Biden would be most favorable to Kelly and Shapiro.

    I’m not sure why this can’t just be what it is. We got the Emhoff cheating news in the same cycle. Harris jumping to be nominee and kicking off a blitzkrieg VP search is going to get everyone digging into all of these individuals – and Shapiro being the pundit favorite was of course going to be where everyone started. The only thing that clearly came out of a campaign is the stuff from Fetterman, and there was no real attempt to hide that.

  294. 294.

    Martin

    @Leto: engineers aren’t out in the field doing this. You learn these lessons in blood/lives. Much like OSHA rules.

    Eh, that’s a cop out. UX is a solid discipline that can easily anticipate this kind of stuff. It’s also routinely ignored because it drives up the cost of development. We can prevent these problems if we want.

  295. 295.

    Leto

    @TBone: the tech based sector has been shedding jobs for years now. Coming into this year it shed almost 200k job, and there’s more to come this year. Personally I don’t know how that’s going to affect things.

  296. 296.

    Kathleen

    @206inKY: I assume the teachers’ union still love him. They got him elected in 2019 or so I heard. His record on education is outstanding.

  297. 297.

    Belafon

    @Martin: I’m seeing more comments that the people who wanted Biden out (and weren’t hoping to have Manchin replace him) aren’t fond of Shapiro.

  298. 298.

    Leto

    @Martin: if it was that easy, the shit would’ve come built in. You can call it a cop out, but I know from experience engineers going, “That was obvious.”  Well I’ll tell you this then. I’m going to stick your ass in the middle of a fire fight, with all that entails, and have you then make a precise air strike. You need to coordinate the incoming aircraft, guide it in, bombs on target, while at the same time providing fire support for your ground team.

    People that say, “That’s a cop out”, literally have no fucking clue what’s going on. Loss of battle space awareness, which includes misinterpreting equipment, is an ongoing challenge that we’re constantly addressing. This is learned via blood and lives.

  299. 299.

    TBone

    @oldgold: I’m not scared, what goes up must come down, and teh market is not the economy.  But, (there’s that word 😁) since my only, sole source of income derives from inherited IRAs, any day where the market tanks is not a good day at my house.  My mantra, however, is “long haul.” That’s why hubby pays daily attention while I merely check in once in awhile at Angry Bear blog and other places.  We must hold the government in Democratic paws for the foreseeable future!

    BTW Angry Bear is great.

    https://angrybearblog.com/2024/08/economy-still-barely-in-expansion

  300. 300.

    Martin

    @TBone: The correction was legit though. You could maybe accuse Buffet of trying to undermine confidence, but that’s not his political alignment. You had Intel finally catching up with a host of strategic fuck-ups dating back to 2007, and you had Amazon acknowledging that one of their business units going back to 2014 never had a path to profitability and cost them $25B. This round of earnings was also when the folks that believed that AI was going to make them billionaires noticed that none of the AI companies are making money, and maybe all this hype is bullshit. Which, yeah, no shit.

    I haven’t seen anything to make me suspicious. We knew all of this stuff was coming, we just didn’t know when and with inflation at 2% and a still strong jobs market, this is a pretty good time to rip the band-aid off.

  301. 301.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Martin: They can tell how a sleep deprived, scared soldier is going to misread something?   You can cover all sorts of contingencies in development, but you eventually have to test it in the real world.  In situations that can’t be simulated.

  303. 303.

    Kent

    @Baud:Hillary said half of Trump supporters were deplorable.

    That was back in 2016 when she was being generous.

    It is now 2024 and we know better.

  304. 304.

    TBone

    @Martin: of course it was legit!

    My overarching point, not being an economist but a student of history, is that the overlords are fearful.  Nothing good happens when they are feeling that their power might be chipped away.  They own the MSM too…

    I haven’t said word one about Buffet, he’s not a normal guy except for his one son who is helping Ukraine.

  305. 305.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Leto: Calling in an air strike is a difficult thing to do in a training environment.  People fuck it up all the time.  The world looks very different in a fast mover from what the grunts see.  Translating it is a skill.

  307. 307.

    catclub

    @Martin: and a still strong jobs market,

    This. part of the reason for higher unemployment number was…. more people entering the job market looking for work.

    4.3% unemployment and 2% inflation is a really good economy.

  308. 308.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @Leto:

    the tech based sector has been shedding jobs for years now. Coming into this year it shed almost 200k job, and there’s more to come this year.

    Ask me how I know. I’m seriously looking at alternative jobs because it’s looking like I’ll never work in my field again, thanks for SV’s pervasive ageism. I really wish I could retire early, but mama gotta eat.

    On the upside, I won’t have to deal with all the bullshit AI stuff, since businesses are figuring out it’s expensive AF, mostly not solving any real-world problems, and unlikely to make them money. (Yes, there’s definitely AI stuff that’s worth doing, but letting a thousand ChatGPT bots bloom ain’t one of them.)

  309. 309.

    Kay

    @Soprano2:

    My daughter is super patient. I just crack up when I hear her talking to my sisters “you can drink vinegar if you want!”  Her compromise is her people can do woo woo health things as long as they also do real health things. So apple cider vinegar can be the crazy part of a well balanced diet :)

  311. 311.

    eclare

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    It never is.  Blockchain, crypto, ChatGPT, execs buy into the fancy lingo having no idea what the fuck they’re doing.  Or how much they are fucking up perfectly good processes and wasting tons of time and money.

  312. 312.

    Leto

    @Omnes Omnibus: yup. It’s why I have some issue with the Army’s training for that. I think you guys can be JTAC certified in like 6 weeks? For the Air Force it it’s own career field, takes 2 years for just school house training, then another 1-2 years for certification at first duty station. But having spent 2 1/2 years with them, including our deployment to Afghanistan as lead theater air support command, it was a very in-depth learning experience.

  313. 313.

    Leto

    @Sister Golden Bear: I’m so very sorry. Our son is currently in school for IT, and many of friends are in it as well, so I’m just constantly worried for them all. Honestly worried for all you guys.

  314. 314.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @Leto:

    but I know from experience engineers going, “That was obvious.”  Well I’ll tell you this then. I’m going to stick your ass in the middle of a fire fight, with all that entails, and have you then make a precise air strike. You need to coordinate the incoming aircraft, guide it in, bombs on target, while at the same time providing fire support for your ground team.

    The job of UX folks like me is to understand exactly this sort of thing and figure out ways to design with that in mind. In particular, user researchers use a number of tools, including interviews and shadowing users to learn about those sorts of experience. But it’s expensive to do so—especially field work—so it’s often the part that gets cut.

    I’m not familiar with military app, but I suspect they also have similar problems to enterprise apps—which mostly have  notoriously bad user experiences. 1) The folks who buy the project aren’t the ones who use it, nor do they ever talk to the people who do. 2) The apps are created by engineering-centric cultures, who generally don’t get, nor appreciate the value that UX people bring.

    I’m not bitter… /s

  316. 316.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Leto: Our certification is just so that we aren’t completely at sea if we don’t have an Air Force team nearby.  It’s a little like having infantrymen know something about calling for artillery.  There are people who do that for a living.  A 11B isn’t going to do as well.

  318. 318.

    Leto

    @Sister Golden Bear: there’s def a lot of that. My old SNCOs used to talk about different equipment that had really strange design flaws that could be accounted from 1+2. “Why is this here? Wait, how were you able to do that?” “Want to see something funny? Watch this…. “ All those sorts of things. Then as Omnes said #301, and this is really true with us, there are some things you really only discover under our specific conditions. And we try to keep these lessons learned moving forward, so we don’t have to learn them again.

  320. 320.

    Leto

    @Omnes Omnibus: it’s the same thing they did with us for our combat readiness training at Ft Riley, for our Iraq pre-deployment training. 1) forever grateful I never needed to use it and 2) it helped give me some more cred with my TACP members at my follow base. Being able to call in an accurate 9-line, they didn’t quite expect that. :)

  321. 321.

    Martin

    @Belafon: I think that speaks to the detachment thing. People who weren’t deeply invested in Joe could more easily step back and make those critiques. I’m seeing people get really invested in Shapiro the more stuff comes up (even saying directly that the more negative stories, the more committed they are getting) and if you aren’t deeply invested in any of these candidates you are more inclined to take the reporting at face value and not as evidence of a conspiracy.  So, yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that.

  323. 323.

    Martin

    @Leto: It’s obvious to UX engineers. It’s not obvious to software engineers or electrical engineers. And if you don’t bring the UX engineers in on the project because you want to save money, you’re going to have this problem

    Engineers aren’t fungible. They are very specialized. Management has to take the effort to include the correct ones. And it’s not like the UX engineers would necessarily just glance at it and say ‘oh, this is a problem’ – they test this stuff and if they’re making that kind of error in the field, you’d see that kind of error in field testing. My guess is that they never did proper UX engineering or field testing.

  325. 325.

    Martin

    @TBone: Buffets decision to sell half his Apple stake is part of this, that’s why I brought it up. It added to the tech panic.

    I will say, the Intel CEO saying a prayer on Twitter didn’t bolster confidence with investors.

    A lot of people here see a lot of nefarious plots that in hindsight turn out to be pretty normal stuff.

  327. 327.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Martin: The point that we are making is that there are things that, no matter how well you test something, will not be discovered as problems until the piece of equipment is used in the field.

  328. 328.

    Martin

    @catclub: You have the additional problem that job reports often get adjusted the following month by HUGE amounts. We may find next month that the 4.3% was actually underreported and it’s getting worse. But single job reports don’t portend a trend and investors that make decisions based on a single data point that routinely gets adjusted are idiots and we shouldn’t credit them with great insight on the economy. Investors panicking can be pretty useful to make money off of, though.

  329. 329.

    tam1MI

    @Martin: That doesn’t make sense. The folks that were loudest against Biden would be most favorable to Kelly and Shapiro.

    Yes, and the direction the Shapiro attacks are coming from is represented by the Caucus that stuck with Biden (the progressives). Tit-for-tat.

  331. 331.

    Leto

    @Omnes Omnibus: dude, he’s just gonna double/triple down on this. Doesn’t matter what we bring up, what experience we have, he needs to prove that he’s the smartest in everything. “Oh, it’s so easy!” Ok.

  332. 332.

    TEL

    @Scout211: Huh. I have a small retirement account with a university I worked for several years ago that switched from TIAA to Fidelity 2 or 3 months ago. This explains why they switched.

  333. 333.

    Geminid

    @tam1MI: I think you are making this into a party faction fight that it’s not, and I have to wonder why you keep trying to stir up animus between Democrats.

  334. 334.

    Kay

    Jim Cramer on CNBC: “If you care about your paycheck, you go with Trump.”

    People don’t talk enough about what Right wing hacks the financial media are. We all bitch about the NYTimes and Fox when these channels just pump out Republican electioneering 24/7. Undercounted as an influence.

  335. 335.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Leto: I will just end by saying that I have full confidence, and take a certain perverse pride, in the fact that there is nothing that an engineer can design that a soldier cannot break or misuse in an innovative way that no one could have anticipated.

  336. 336.

    Leto

    @Omnes Omnibus: 110% agree. The E-1 through E-4 ranks (regardless of service) are the absolute gold standard of “how the absolute fuck did you do that” of testing.

  337. 337.

    Martin

    @Omnes Omnibus: I never said otherwise. I said an interface that is unclear about which coordinates you are at and which coordinates the enemy is at and where the consequence of confusing those means you and your squad die is not one of those situations.

    You hand that scenario to Sister Golden Bear and she’s going to laser in on making sure that is unambiguously clear to the user because she probably has a lot of experience with ambiguous interface errors because they’re super common. There are reams of case studies of exactly this sort of thing. And we fix them in situations when the user won’t die from it.

  338. 338.

    tam1MI

    @Geminid:  I think you are making this into a party faction fight that it’s not

    Which is why I (hopefully) clearly labeled it “speculation”. It’s obvious that there is a full court press against Shapiro, and posters here have identified it as coming from the Progressive wing of the party. I don’t think it’s all that out there to wonder what the reason why might be.

  339. 339.

    Martin

    @Leto: As someone who used to design engineering curriculum for a living, and oversaw the accreditation of engineering degree programs, I think I do in fact have some expertise in what UX engineers routinely can and cannot do when they are involved in the design process.

    I am not discounting your experience in the field. I am saying what you described is a pretty straightforward textbook exercise that UX engineers should be able to get right 10/10 times. There are lots and lots of cases in unexpected situations that are a lot harder to both observe and correct for, but ‘I am confused which of these coordinates is my coordinates’ is not the kind of problem that should require mulching squads of soldiers to identify, especially if it can be solved by simply putting on the screen “These are your coordinates:

    Please inform the rest of us what your and OOs qualifications are to evaluate the capabilities of UX engineers.

  340. 340.

    Kay

    @tam1MI:

    Because Shapiro is further Right than Walz. On education and taxes. I still back Shapiro because there are a lot of centrist and Right leaning Dems and he’ll pick up some GOP like he’s doing now with his 60% approval but I don’t insist they’re all exactly the same. They’re not. Centrist and Right leaning media people are pushing Shapiro because they’re Centrist and Right leaning. Which is fine! Big tent! But progressives won’t like him. Such is the nature of a competition.

  343. 343.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    Probably a dead thread but anyway. The Greenberg “thing” is the stabbing of teacher Ellen Greenberg in I believe 2011. She was stabbed 20 times inclusions in the back of her neck. The ME originally ruled it a homicide but was later pressured and re ruled it a suicide. She was found by her boyfriend…

  344. 344.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Omnes Omnibus: There are some BJ commenters who are experts on everything at least in their own minds.

    Geriartrics: Level Expert

    Data Analysis and Polling : Level Expert

    Middle East Foreign Policy:Level  Expert

    What should and shouldn’t count as slurs for various ethnicities. Level Expert.

    What grants them this expertise and coolness in their own eyes is that they have teenagers. Who are the arbiters of all knowledge under the sun. Best not to argue with that level “expertise”.

  345. 345.

    TBone

    @tam1MI: except, he’s not.  Our new PA budget (Shapiro’s actions, not what he says or what is said about him) tell the true story.

  346. 346.

    Heidi Mom

    @LadySuzy:  The possibility of a political future in MI (as opposed to IN) undoubtedly played a part in that decision, but so did the fact that they were going to need babysitters.  Thus, the decision to settle in Traverse City, where Chasten grew up and where his parents live.

  347. 347.

    Geminid

    @tam1MI: I see a certain amount of scepticism about Shapiro coming from all sorts of people here. I am sceptical myself and I would not place myself on the more liberal (or “progressive”) end of the party.

    I would not call this a “full court press either. The “full court press” against Shapiro that I’ve seen is coming from “Progressives” who are not Democrats; people like Ryan Grimace of the Interschlepped and others in the Jerkobin crowd.

    They are also beating a different drum against Kelly, that labor unions are hostile to him. This assertion is easily debunked by an inquiry into which organizations helped put Kelly over the line Kelly in 2020 and 2022, but Grimace and the others have a very credulous audience so they don have to worry being proven wrong.

  349. 349.

    206inKY

    @Kristine: Beshear is term limited and if he becomes VP, he would be replaced for the duration of term by his running mate Jacqueline Coleman (D). He has a shot at a Senate seat, but otherwise he hits a wall like Beto and Abrams. Some of our best talent has hit the buzzsaw of coming up just short in close elections in red states.

    I don’t think it’ll be Beshear, but if it is, I think people will be delighted by what they see in the coming months.

  353. 353.

    something fabulous

    @Martin: Again, UXR here: of course it’s HARD or well-done, high-stakes user research would be done as a matter of course. Please let’s not go too far in the contrarian pose here. Should it be done? Absolutely. Hand-waving the difficulty does not help to sell it, though! yeesh.

  355. 355.

    Martin

    @schrodingers_cat: I don’t think I’ve ever expressed any expression of authority on 3 of those things. I suspect the first refers to me recounting an experience I had that the debate reminded me of which affected me and influenced my perception of Biden which people jumped on me for. In fact, I don’t think I ever even questioned his ability to do the job. And I didn’t defend that my change in perception was valid, merely that it was my experience, which I guess I am not entitled to here.

    I don’t profess any expertise on Middle East foreign policy and I’m having trouble thinking of a time when I might have. I have opinions on things like everyone else. Those opinions are bulit on a foundation of other things. I enjoy talking to other people about that in order to learn new things.

    I don’t think I’ve ever engaged in a discussion on slurs. If you’re referring to the recent ‘coconut’ threads, I never participated in any of those, and if I did, I would have been an expression that if the campaign uses an emoji that might be interpreted as a slur against Harris, it should be safe for supporters to use it as well. To my knowledge the campaign never embraced the emoji. I did several times post a video that pointed out that the coconut meme wasn’t pushed originally by the campaign but by a GOP account intending to attack her which supporters found funny/charming/whatever and ran with. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the campaign embrace the meme. I’ve never embraced either the meme or the emoji myself, not here or anywhere else. Same goes for any of the other memes that the campaign didn’t directly engage with. I’m sorry if this comes off as an expression of expertise, it’s not intended as such.

    I did do data analysis for 30 years in my career. I have a degree in it. I’ve taught it. And I did population sampling and polling and ran focus group. The former for about 6 years, I think. The latter for 2-ish.

    I’m sorry for having a broad career.

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