A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie had her chemo treatment today. She’s still in full remission and is doing excellently. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, I want to thank TaMara for doing emergency back up duty last night. My power went out around 7 PM last night. Which is unusual as it almost never goes out. Occasionally during a thunderstorm if we get a strike near the house it’ll flicker for a few seconds and come right back on. Last night it was out till after midnight. The power company’s outage map was ambiguous as to the reason, but the fancy weather app I have listed it as tree on power line or lines. Even if that was the case, I have no idea where in the area that would’ve been. Regardless of the reason, we’ve been back up and running.
We have reports of recent – within one to four hours – attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv:
Explosions reported in Kyiv!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 5, 2024
Third round of explosions in Kharkiv ‼️
I hate russia— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 5, 2024
FUCKING HELL
(5th explosion in Kharkiv)‼️— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 5, 2024
And just as I finished drafting tonight’s update at 8:50 PM EDT/3:50 AM local time in Ukraine, an air raid alert went up for all of Kharkiv Oblast.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Government Is Currently Preparing Several Technical Solutions to Help Schools Operate Offline Where Security Allows – Address by the President
5 August 2024 – 19:22
I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!
Briefly about today.
I have received several important reports. In the morning, Minister of Defense Umerov reported on support packages for Ukraine. The absolute priority is to provide our warriors with weapons, and I am grateful to all our partners who are really delivering what they promised on time. We are truly committed to minimizing the time between the announcement of the packages and their use on the frontline. We are now preparing new packages that can strengthen Ukraine’s position this fall. Also today, there was a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi; he is currently on the frontline, in the combat brigades, on the ground, and he is determining the specific needs of our brigades and assessing the situation in each direction. It is very important that commanders of all levels – including the highest – have direct contact with the front, and be there with the warriors who are performing the most difficult tasks. Much has already been done in this regard, and I am grateful to every commander who is truly there with their soldiers. Today, we have also detailed the work agenda for this month with Prime Minister Shmyhal, namely the decisions that are needed and the agreements that we expect in relations with our partners, especially in Europe. We have now received a new inflow from the United States – $3.9 billion has been transferred to the Treasury account. I am grateful to our partners for their support. We are also working with the European Union to obtain about €4 billion in assistance that Ukraine needs in August. In addition, we discussed some important practical details today regarding the use of Russian assets frozen by our partners. There is a G7 decision on $50 billion for Ukraine from the use of Russian assets, and we are now working with our partners in Europe and America on concrete implementation. We have coordinated our position today on how to approach the actual receipt of funds. This is something that is critical for Ukraine and can strengthen us in this particular fall and winter season. The Prime Minister also reported on the regional work of Government officials – it is the right thing for the Government to be in the regions and really see the problems and make decisions quickly and locally. Now there are many questions about preparations for the new school year. Our priority is to provide maximum assistance to schools in all regions where security allows them to open for children and operate offline. The Government is currently preparing several technical solutions specifically to help with this issue. Regular reports are also coming in on our energy sector – our preparations for the heating season and enhanced protection of energy infrastructure. I am grateful to everyone in Ukraine, in every region, who is working exactly as needed to ensure that the social sector, business and communities are prepared for winter.
And one more thing.
We continue to work on the implementation of our Peace Formula. Today we have another new signature on the Peace Summit Communiqué – Botswana has joined. And this is important as a signal to everyone in the world that, no matter how difficult it is, we are increasing the number of our partners, and therefore partners of peace for Ukraine and for everyone in the world who respects international law. These days, we are also holding talks with the members of our working groups on the points of the Peace Formula – talks on how and when we will give the necessary content to the implementation of the Peace Formula points. Our goal is the same: to prepare a real basis for a just end to this war this very year. And it is achievable.
I thank everyone who is fighting for the sake of our country, for the sake of our independence! I thank everyone who is helping!
Glory to Ukraine!
Yesterday I had planned to cover President Zelenskyy’s remarks in honor of the Ukrainian Air Force, so here it is. Video followed by the English write up from the President of Ukraine’s website.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: This Is Reality, Reality in Our Skies – F-16s Are in Ukraine
4 August 2024 – 17:16
F-16 aircraft are already in Ukraine. This was announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the Day of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
F-16, MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets flew over the sky during the ceremony of congratulating the warriors.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that we are now at a new phase in the development of the Air Force of the AFU. Ukraine has done a lot to elevate the Ukrainian Air Force to a new standard of aviation – Western combat aviation.
“We have held hundreds of meetings and negotiations to strengthen the capabilities of our aviation, to strengthen the capabilities of our air defense, and our Defense Forces. We have often heard the word “impossible” in response, but we have made possible what was our ambition, our defense need, and now it is actually a reality, a reality in our skies. F-16s are in Ukraine. We made it happen,” the President said.
He stressed that the number of F-16s and trained pilots is still insufficient. Ukraine is waiting for additional fighter jets from partner countries, and our pilots and engineers continue to receive relevant education and training.
The President also noted that we should work to ensure that neighboring countries shoot down Russian missiles heading in their direction.
“This is the type of coalition we really need today. After all, it is a great responsibility for a single neighboring country to assist us shoot down missiles. Although I believe this certainly should have been addressed a long time ago. I think there is another tool – for NATO countries to discuss with Ukraine the possibility of such a small coalition of neighboring countries that will shoot down enemy missiles,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy summed up.The Head of State instructed Ukrainian diplomats to arrange a meeting with the North Atlantic Alliance in the format of the NATO-Ukraine Council to discuss this issue.
The good news is that this time the imagery isn’t a photoshop done up as a gag.
Official Statement: F-16s in Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/llTh7QQoy5
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) August 4, 2024
F-16s are in Ukraine 🇺🇦
Welcome to the family! pic.twitter.com/QyOtxQjXpK— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 4, 2024
“The donation of the first F-16s is a testimony to Denmark’s enduring support for Ukraine. Through bold and decisive actions, we support Ukraine´s fight for freedom and democracy”, says MOD @troelslundp 🇺🇦🇩🇰 https://t.co/yzdooTf6qi
— Forsvarsministeriet/Danish MoD (@Forsvarsmin) August 4, 2024
🇺🇦F-16 https://t.co/BRKAdMhEpH pic.twitter.com/gpMNjhewYt
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 4, 2024
/2. Correction, on the 0:35 it’s not a MiG-29 but a first footage of SDB, GBU-39, on the Su-27. https://t.co/XGDFrzPWEI pic.twitter.com/1mrxbNClov
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 4, 2024
The first ever public footage of Su-24M(R) of UkrAF 7th BrTA dropping Storm Shadow 😌 pic.twitter.com/iyXpgqAwaT
— Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) August 4, 2024
Here’s two more pieces of good news I had intended to include last night:
Another 23 Ukrainian children returned to Ukraine from occupation. Bless them! Remember, Russia deported at least 20 thousand of the Ukrainian children and tries to re-educate them destroying their national identity
— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) August 3, 2024
🥇 Ukraine’s Yaroslava Mahuchikh soars to Olympic gold, winning the high jump at #Paris2024! pic.twitter.com/AnysgivGcm
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) August 4, 2024
The Ukrainian MOD brings us the confirmation of what they destroyed in the strike on the Morozovsk airfield:
As a result of the attack on August 3 on the Morozovsk airfield in the Rostov region, a russian Su-34 fighter bomber and an ammunition depot were destroyed, @DI_Ukraine reports.
This is confirmed by satellite imagery. pic.twitter.com/LgpfdOEaJs— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 5, 2024
While the whole world is waiting for Iran to strike a western city with ballistic missiles, Russia is striking a western city with ballistic missiles.
The difference is, Iran awaits severe consequences if it does, while nobody will punish Russia for doing so.— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) August 5, 2024
This is, unfortunately, true.
The adage used to be that Bibi is willing to fight Iran to the last American, while the Quds Force, IRGC, and Supreme Religious Authority are willing to fight Israel to the last Lebanese. Now we can also add that Russia is willing to fight the US to the last Iranian.
Shoigu held a meeting with Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian. Amid an escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the threat of war between Israel, Iran, and Lebanon, Russia openly supports Iran. https://t.co/9Oq3nKcFsP pic.twitter.com/RamP0MHokr
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 5, 2024
Oy vey.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielus Landsbergis has some unpleasant truths for those who need to hear them:
I would like to address the recurring question of those “ordinary Russians” who “shouldn’t be sanctioned”.🧵1/7I hear talk of ordinary Russians’ innocence, but then I see ordinary Russians murdering ordinary Ukrainians.🧵2/7I see ordinary Russian mothers saying goodbye to their ordinary Russian sons and wishing them good luck with their ordinary Russian war crimes.🧵3/7I see ordinary Russians celebrating murder. I see ordinary Russian parents dressing up their ordinary Russian children in military uniforms and painting the letter Z on a cardboard tank costume.🧵4/7I see ordinary Russians coming together to make a huge Z formation in the town square.🧵5/7Ordinary Russia is sick. Healing will be a long and gruelling process which can only start when Russia, not just Putin, is defeated. Without a defeat in Ukraine, Russia will just keep spreading.🧵6/7So about those “unfair” sanctions against “ordinary Russians”… Well, anything which slows down Russia’s total war machine will have ordinary Lithuanians’ support. Whatever victory takes. Slava Ukraini.🧵7/7
This is much better:
Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin has urged not to surrender even a part of Ukraine to Putin.
Earlier, he stated the need for a ceasefire and immediate negotiations. Now he opposes surrendering even a part of the Ukrainian territory to Putin. https://t.co/d1hsqTxVVj pic.twitter.com/dheWySPrSf
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 5, 2024
Pokrovsk:
Russia Struck Pokrovsk with two glide bombs. Here is the perspective of a first responder shortly after the blast. pic.twitter.com/pStjq7mX1D
— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) August 4, 2024
Kyiv:
The time between the air raid sirens and text alerts and the explosions was about 10 minutes, maybe less. This screenshot was taken a few minutes after. It shows 12 minutes had passed when I snapped it. This would suggest Russian ballistic missiles. pic.twitter.com/GEl9ISnXfU
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 5, 2024
Now Ukraine’s Air Force and Kyiv Mayor Klitschko say Russian attack drones are approaching Kyiv from the north… pic.twitter.com/7bIeyxbHDY
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 5, 2024
Explosions in #Kyiv. Right after air raid sirens went off. And the forever question: do we wake the kids? Bathroom or bomb shelter? Or do we pray and trust the air defence like we always do? pic.twitter.com/J7UJwz3HeO
— Lesia Vasylenko (@lesiavasylenko) August 5, 2024
Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
/2. Geolocation of the strike on Luhansk
48.54741 39.31777https://t.co/hUDyjJTLyJ pic.twitter.com/AjiAdWnfrm— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 4, 2024
Odesa:
F-16 flying over Odesa, Ukraine pic.twitter.com/sBbOJcjp6c
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 4, 2024
Donetsk Oblast:
Russia shelling Ukrainian New York, Donetsk region with guided aerial bombs.
Once Ukraine is allowed strikes on a larger part of Russia with Western weapons, our Defenders will be able to strike down Russian aircraft that launch these bombs. We cannot fight with our hands tied. pic.twitter.com/hxT0h3tOe2
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 5, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron.
First, from the Ukrainian MOD, it is always good to have a workout buddy!
Monday workout? Check! ✅ Energy up, stress down. Ready to continue the hard work.
📹: @United24medi pic.twitter.com/rG6WpBEWMk
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 5, 2024
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns
Open thread!
hrprogressive
Welcome back, glad it was a short outage.
Do you have additional thoughts on whatever is going on / may happen / going to happen RE: Iran/Israel?
Definitely seen an uptick in “WWIII any day now, nukes are armed and ready!!” social media posts, which, you know, that level of alarmism seems designed for clicks and engagement not information dissemination but…you know, one certainly has to wonder what “actual experts think” not “Randos on (insert SM Platform Here)”.
Anonymous At Work
Welcome back. Video of F-16 over Odessa answered my primary question of whether the planes would be a Fleet in Being (Wing? Squadron?) or would see some primary use. Are they an upgrade in capacity or do they come with better toys for Air-to-air defense?
KatKapCC
Hey, F-16s could be called Fuck Putins, since P is the 16th letter of the alphabet :D
YY_Sima Qian
Thanks Adam!
I am seeing credible OSINT types on Twitter IDing the missiles being carried by the Ukrainian F-16s as AIM-120A/Bs & AIM-9L/Ms. Limiting the Ukrainian AF to obsolescent missiles will limit the effectiveness of the F-16s that Ukraine does receive. It’s not like the late block AIM-120Cs or the AIM-9X Block Is are so new that Russia recovering spent missiles would be catastrophic.
Difficult to believe that the F-16 A/B MLUs that the Ukraine is getting have not been upgraded to fire later block AIM-120Cs and AIM-9X Block Is.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: It’s most likely not that they haven’t been upgraded, rather the Biden admin won’t allow them to use the newer stuff.
YY_Sima Qian
As this is a FP open thread, here is a sobering Twitter thread from Dr. Jeffrey Lewis on the status of NK’s nuclear capable SRBM/MRBM force, and possible nuclear strategy (click through the link for photos & links to other resources):
Here are more links to photos & satellite images from the NK parade.
Now, not all of NK’s SRBM/MRBMs will be nuclear armed, & the quality of the NK missiles may leave a lot to be desired, but these are very destabilizing developments, & will incentivize SK to develop its own independent nuclear capability as a deterrence, especially if Trump is elected again.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: If history is any guide, the Biden (or Harris?) Administration will eventually release the AIM-120Cs & AIM-9Xs to Ukraine, months later than necessary.
Adam L Silverman
@hrprogressive: We’ve been in WW III since at least 2011. The only ones who want a wider, regional war are Bibi and his extremist coalition partners, Sinwar, the Quds Force guys, Putin, and the 30 million or so self described Christian Zionists in the US.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: And right after Russia begins using mass drivers and orbital based rail guns.
hrprogressive
@Adam L Silverman:
Any insight on how likely the parties you named will get what they want?
Jay
@Anonymous At Work:
They are an upgrade in capacity over the MIG-29’s and SU-27’s. The F-16’s can carry, fire and drop anything in the NATO arsenal.
A big issue from the MIG-29’s is that their radars have to be on the target from painting, through missile launch and flight to target, providing a big alert to the target aircraft and a target for ruzzian AARM’s. ruZZian fighters have longer ranged “fire and forget” air to air missiles. They are also limited in what they can carry from glide bombs and can’t carry Stormshadow or SCALP missiles.
The F-16’s have a better “look down, shoot down” ability and can “fire and forget” AIM missiles, which sadly in the versions they are being given, are still outranged by russian air to air missiles. Apparently, the Soviet/ruzzian radar warning systems arn’t “all that” but the F-16’s are.
Ukraine’s SU-27 fleet has been hard pressed. They started the war with about 30, and have had to rebuild mothballed airframes to manage to just keep about 24 in the air. The SU-27’s can launch, (Ukrainian engineering) SCALP and Stormshadow missiles, glide bombs, but are not much of a fighter aircraft, severely outclassed by every Gen 4 fighter.
It would take a full 130 F-16’s and the latest NATO kit to really change the air war but the F-16’s are better kit than what Ukraine has. Used tactically, they can make a difference, even if there are only 6 so far.
Jay
As always, thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@hrprogressive: The Iranians will definitely retaliate. Exactly how and when I do not know and cannot say. The question becomes whether Bibi will take what Biden told him on their call last Thursday to heart: that if the former escalates again, the US will not cover his ass and protect Israel from the response.
Quite simply Israel has never won a war with Hezbullah. Right now the IDF is exhausted. As a majority reserve force it is designed for no longer than 60 days of continuous operations. It has now been fighting for almost 10 months. It can’t actually defeat Hamas in Gaza. It has no ability to actually fight Hezbullah in a prolonged major combat operation. Let alone fight against Hamas, Hezbullah, the Houthis, the Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria, and Iran itself.
This, from Eran Etzion, Israel’s former Deputy Director of it’s National Security Council, lays out what’s going on: (machine translated)
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Turns out they delivered ten out of an estimated 76 from the reporting I’ve seen.
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
Welcome back Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team: Thanks!
Devore
@Adam L Silverman: Hopefully the remaining 70 f-16s show up soon. 6 seems about enough for an air show
How about another 100
HumboldtBlue
@Adam L Silverman:
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for posting Eran Etzion’s Tweet! I think even he has elided the consequences of Israel’s past & ongoing war crimes & crimes against humanity (& credible accusations of genocide) in Gaza, of enormous proportions. Most of the world won’t forget this dark stain on Israel even if Bibi sudden turns around & asks help to seal a deal w/ Hamas. However, ending the war, recovering the remaining hostages, & moving on toward a multilateral reconstruction effort for Gaza would undermine the stated justification for Hezbollah & the Houthis to attack Israel & western shipping in the Red Sea & probably result in much greater international pressure on them to cease their attacks, even though Hezbollah, the Houthis & Iran are clearly cynical actors that do not give a care about the suffering of the actual Gazans.
I don’t think the PRC wants to see a wider & higher intensity regional war between Israel (possibly the US) & Iran/proxies, the resulting disruption in oil & gas supplies will do no favors for the precarious Chinese economy (although the PRC has been stockpiling any & all commodities since the pandemic & has built up huge stocks). However, the Xi & the CPC leadership will certainly try to take advantage of the situation, whatever happens. If the US gets stuck in another (& perhaps worse) ME quagmire, the PRC will find ways to maximize its interests & influence, & come in as the “peacemaker” after all sides have exhausted themselves (since the US has little credibility to bargain bilaterally w/ Iran, Hezbollah, the PA or the Houthis).
I have been struck at how strongly the PRC has positioned itself on the Palestinian side (& the “Arab Street”) since 10/7, at least rhetorically. Pro-Palestine has been the official narrative in the PRC since the Cold War, but sine the 80s the PRC has not been vocally anti-Israel, even w/ past Israeli excesses in Lebanon, Gaza & the WB. Sino-Israeli relations had been overwhelmingly driven by trade, investment & tech. collaboration, largely devoid of ideology. However, two things has changed in recent years: 1) the Trump & Biden Administration has been twisting Israeli arms hard to decouple from the PRC technologically & economically, & Israel has had to relent to a degree however reluctant, so Israel is becoming less useful to the PRC; 2) Israel has really maneuvered itself into a strategic cul-de-sac since 10/7, & the PRC could not stake a neutral stance & retain credibility w/ the Global South (Modi’s early embrace of Bibi undermined India’s standing in the Global South, & India has had to recalibrate a bit since). Indeed, the Israeli war of vengeance in Gaza, & the US’ clear lack of willingness to restrain Israel has collapsed the US’ credibility & standing among the elites & the masses everywhere outside of the West (& among the masses in parts of the West, too), while boosting the PRC’s by default, w/o the PRC doing anything meaningful at all (PRC rhetoric wrt the events in the ME is largely comprised of trolling/sniping at the US).
Of course, PRC entities are happy to supply Israel w/ body armor & civilian drones for its war of retribution in Gaza, Chinese battery EVs are rapidly gaining market share in Israel, & PRC state owned companies continue to run multiple civilian ports in Israel, so the economic relationship continues.
YY_Sima Qian
@HumboldtBlue: Iran has communicated its intensions through Qatar & Hungary, so it is probably looking to do more damage than the retaliation in Apr. for the Israel attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus to reestablish the credibility of its deterrence (we’ll see how many Iranian munitions actually get through the Israeli/US/UK/Jordanian/Saudi defenses this time), but not so much damage that it prompts Bibi to escalate further.
The problem is that all it takes is for one of the parties to miscalculate where the red line for the other party lies, or for Murphy’s Law to assert itself, even if every party believes it is acting rationally, calculatingly, clearly communicating the proportionality of its actions & the limits of its intentions. I think perhaps the “Guns of August” dynamic better describes the current situation in the ME than across the Taiwan Strait.
Adam L Silverman
@HumboldtBlue: The Iranians have been officially telling it to reporters since last week. This isn’t a state secret anywhere.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/bayraktar_1love/status/1820498328884228409#m
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: Add to that that Bibi doesn’t have a concern for anyone but himself and possible jail time. ( He is very very corrupt, even by Israeli standards.)
And Israelis have had three or four generations of education/indoctrination that nobody in the world cares about them except themselves. At this point that is true, but twenty yeaes ago it wasn’t. They blew that massive goodwill all on their own.
They consider Americans to be just naive chumps ( “friers” in Hebrew.) Israelis believe that American Jews (who mostly aren’t actual Jews, being Reformed) just don’t understand, although they (American Jews) live and function quite well in a society where they are only 1% of the population but are still well regarded.
I recognize that America is riddled with anti- semitism, but nothing at all like what the Israelis think. They are in their own bubble and making very bad choices.l
ETA Should I delete this comment? it seems completely inappropriate for a Ukraine thread.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: The Israeli ultra-rightwing doesn’t consider most Israeli Jews to be “real Jews”. See the straight up Fascistic rhetoric from the new commander of the Gaza Division (video through the link):
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam