Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

People are weird.

The willow is too close to the house.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

I was promised a recession.

The gop couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 894! We’re Back!!!

War for Ukraine Day 894! We’re Back!!!

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A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie had her chemo treatment today. She’s still in full remission and is doing excellently. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I want to thank TaMara for doing emergency back up duty last night. My power went out around 7 PM last night. Which is unusual as it almost never goes out. Occasionally during a thunderstorm if we get a strike near the house it’ll flicker for a few seconds and come right back on. Last night it was out till after midnight. The power company’s outage map was ambiguous as to the reason, but the fancy weather app I have listed it as tree on power line or lines. Even if that was the case, I have no idea where in the area that would’ve been. Regardless of the reason, we’ve been back up and running.

We have reports of recent – within one to four hours – attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv:

And just as I finished drafting tonight’s update at 8:50 PM EDT/3:50 AM local time in Ukraine, an air raid alert went up for all of Kharkiv Oblast.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The Government Is Currently Preparing Several Technical Solutions to Help Schools Operate Offline Where Security Allows – Address by the President

5 August 2024 – 19:22

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about today.

I have received several important reports. In the morning, Minister of Defense Umerov reported on support packages for Ukraine. The absolute priority is to provide our warriors with weapons, and I am grateful to all our partners who are really delivering what they promised on time. We are truly committed to minimizing the time between the announcement of the packages and their use on the frontline. We are now preparing new packages that can strengthen Ukraine’s position this fall. Also today, there was a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi; he is currently on the frontline, in the combat brigades, on the ground, and he is determining the specific needs of our brigades and assessing the situation in each direction. It is very important that commanders of all levels – including the highest – have direct contact with the front, and be there with the warriors who are performing the most difficult tasks. Much has already been done in this regard, and I am grateful to every commander who is truly there with their soldiers. Today, we have also detailed the work agenda for this month with Prime Minister Shmyhal, namely the decisions that are needed and the agreements that we expect in relations with our partners, especially in Europe. We have now received a new inflow from the United States – $3.9 billion has been transferred to the Treasury account. I am grateful to our partners for their support. We are also working with the European Union to obtain about €4 billion in assistance that Ukraine needs in August. In addition, we discussed some important practical details today regarding the use of Russian assets frozen by our partners. There is a G7 decision on $50 billion for Ukraine from the use of Russian assets, and we are now working with our partners in Europe and America on concrete implementation. We have coordinated our position today on how to approach the actual receipt of funds. This is something that is critical for Ukraine and can strengthen us in this particular fall and winter season. The Prime Minister also reported on the regional work of Government officials – it is the right thing for the Government to be in the regions and really see the problems and make decisions quickly and locally. Now there are many questions about preparations for the new school year. Our priority is to provide maximum assistance to schools in all regions where security allows them to open for children and operate offline. The Government is currently preparing several technical solutions specifically to help with this issue. Regular reports are also coming in on our energy sector – our preparations for the heating season and enhanced protection of energy infrastructure. I am grateful to everyone in Ukraine, in every region, who is working exactly as needed to ensure that the social sector, business and communities are prepared for winter.

And one more thing.

We continue to work on the implementation of our Peace Formula. Today we have another new signature on the Peace Summit Communiqué – Botswana has joined. And this is important as a signal to everyone in the world that, no matter how difficult it is, we are increasing the number of our partners, and therefore partners of peace for Ukraine and for everyone in the world who respects international law. These days, we are also holding talks with the members of our working groups on the points of the Peace Formula – talks on how and when we will give the necessary content to the implementation of the Peace Formula points. Our goal is the same: to prepare a real basis for a just end to this war this very year. And it is achievable.

I thank everyone who is fighting for the sake of our country, for the sake of our independence! I thank everyone who is helping!

Glory to Ukraine!

Yesterday I had planned to cover President Zelenskyy’s remarks in honor of the Ukrainian Air Force, so here it is. Video followed by the English write up from the President of Ukraine’s website.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: This Is Reality, Reality in Our Skies – F-16s Are in Ukraine

4 August 2024 – 17:16

 

F-16 aircraft are already in Ukraine. This was announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the Day of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

F-16, MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets flew over the sky during the ceremony of congratulating the warriors.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that we are now at a new phase in the development of the Air Force of the AFU. Ukraine has done a lot to elevate the Ukrainian Air Force to a new standard of aviation – Western combat aviation.

“We have held hundreds of meetings and negotiations to strengthen the capabilities of our aviation, to strengthen the capabilities of our air defense, and our Defense Forces. We have often heard the word “impossible” in response, but we have made possible what was our ambition, our defense need, and now it is actually a reality, a reality in our skies. F-16s are in Ukraine. We made it happen,” the President said.

He stressed that the number of F-16s and trained pilots is still insufficient. Ukraine is waiting for additional fighter jets from partner countries, and our pilots and engineers continue to receive relevant education and training.

The President also noted that we should work to ensure that neighboring countries shoot down Russian missiles heading in their direction.
“This is the type of coalition we really need today. After all, it is a great responsibility for a single neighboring country to assist us shoot down missiles. Although I believe this certainly should have been addressed a long time ago. I think there is another tool – for NATO countries to discuss with Ukraine the possibility of such a small coalition of neighboring countries that will shoot down enemy missiles,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy summed up.

The Head of State instructed Ukrainian diplomats to arrange a meeting with the North Atlantic Alliance in the format of the NATO-Ukraine Council to discuss this issue.

The good news is that this time the imagery isn’t a photoshop done up as a gag.


Here’s two more pieces of good news I had intended to include last night:

The Ukrainian MOD brings us the confirmation of what they destroyed in the strike on the Morozovsk airfield:

This is, unfortunately, true.

The adage used to be that Bibi is willing to fight Iran to the last American, while the Quds Force, IRGC, and Supreme Religious Authority are willing to fight Israel to the last Lebanese. Now we can also add that Russia is willing to fight the US to the last Iranian.

Oy vey.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielus Landsbergis has some unpleasant truths for those who need to hear them:

I would like to address the recurring question of those “ordinary Russians” who “shouldn’t be sanctioned”.🧵1/7 
I hear talk of ordinary Russians’ innocence, but then I see ordinary Russians murdering ordinary Ukrainians.🧵2/7 
I see ordinary Russian mothers saying goodbye to their ordinary Russian sons and wishing them good luck with their ordinary Russian war crimes.🧵3/7 
I see ordinary Russians celebrating murder. I see ordinary Russian parents dressing up their ordinary Russian children in military uniforms and painting the letter Z on a cardboard tank costume.🧵4/7 
I see ordinary Russians coming together to make a huge Z formation in the town square.🧵5/7 
Ordinary Russia is sick. Healing will be a long and gruelling process which can only start when Russia, not just Putin, is defeated. Without a defeat in Ukraine, Russia will just keep spreading.🧵6/7 
So about those “unfair” sanctions against “ordinary Russians”… Well, anything which slows down Russia’s total war machine will have ordinary Lithuanians’ support. Whatever victory takes. Slava Ukraini.🧵7/7 

This is much better:

Pokrovsk:

Kyiv:

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Odesa:

Donetsk Oblast:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

First, from the Ukrainian MOD, it is always good to have a workout buddy!

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

🤍 #песпатрон #карпати

♬ nhạc nền – mụt mình zẫn gấc là chiu – thaosuongwluv

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

26Comments

  1. 1.

    hrprogressive

    Welcome back, glad it was a short outage.

    Do you have additional thoughts on whatever is going on / may happen / going to happen RE: Iran/Israel?

    Definitely seen an uptick in “WWIII any day now, nukes are armed and ready!!” social media posts, which, you know, that level of alarmism seems designed for clicks and engagement not information dissemination but…you know, one certainly has to wonder what “actual experts think” not “Randos on (insert SM Platform Here)”.

  2. 2.

    Anonymous At Work

    Welcome back.  Video of F-16 over Odessa answered my primary question of whether the planes would be a Fleet in Being (Wing? Squadron?) or would see some primary use.  Are they an upgrade in capacity or do they come with better toys for Air-to-air defense?

  3. 3.

    KatKapCC

    Hey, F-16s could be called Fuck Putins, since P is the 16th letter of the alphabet :D

  4. 4.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Thanks Adam!

    I am seeing credible OSINT types on Twitter IDing the missiles being carried by the Ukrainian F-16s as AIM-120A/Bs & AIM-9L/Ms. Limiting the Ukrainian AF to obsolescent missiles will limit the effectiveness of the F-16s that Ukraine does receive. It’s not like the late block AIM-120Cs or the AIM-9X Block Is are so new that Russia recovering spent missiles would be catastrophic.

    Difficult to believe that the F-16 A/B MLUs that the Ukraine is getting have not been upgraded to fire later block AIM-120Cs and AIM-9X Block Is.

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    As this is a FP open thread, here is a sobering Twitter thread from Dr. Jeffrey Lewis on the status of NK’s nuclear capable SRBM/MRBM force, and possible nuclear strategy (click through the link for photos & links to other resources):

    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
    @ArmsControlWonk

    North Korea just held a party to celebrate the deployment of 250 nuclear-capable Hwasong-11 missile launchers. Each launcher carries 4 missiles. That’s 1,000 new missiles, not counting reloads. North Korea plans a much, much bigger nuclear arsenal than you may think. A short thread.

    The amount of fissile material is a constraint, but maybe not as strict a constraint as you might think given North Korea’s option to stretch a small supply of Pu with HEU. I’ve written about composite pits elsewhere.

    North Korea has started a new reactor at Yongbyon that might be producing plutonium and has a very hard-to-estimate stockpile of HEU. I don’t think North Korea has anything like 1,000 warheads now, but I do think Kim aspires to a number like that.

    Putting 1,000 new nuclear-capable missiles in the field should certainly be a hint. (And yes, North Korea has made clear that the Hwasong-11 has a nuclear-armed version.)

    Read Kim Jong Un’s speech. He means exactly what he says: “Ever-developing, inexhaustible strength is fundamental to our eternal victory, genuine peace, happiness and safety.”
    This is not a man who plans to stop at one potato chip.

    Why does Kim think he needs a big arsenal, rather than a small one? Kim has always said his nuclear forces have two missions. 1. To deter an attack, and 2. To repel a U.S. invasion.
    Deterring an attack is easy. A small number of nuclear-armed missiles, including ICBMs, will probably do the trick in most situations. Of course, there is always the chance that deterrence fails. In that case, it’s Mission 2 …

    Mission 2 — which he calls “the other mission” — is repelling a US-led invasion. That means using large numbers of short- and medium-range nuclear weapons to target U.S. forces in South Korea and Japan to interdict the flow of US personnel and material into the theater.

    This is why North Korea talks about the preemptive use of nuclear weapons. If Kim thinks deterrence has failed, and an invasion is imminent, the plan is to hit US forces in theater stop the invasion. I dramatized this in my novel, #2020Commission.

    North Korea has released statements explaining that this is the plan, Kim gives speeches about it, defectors have said its how his father and grandfather thought about the problem, and North Korea literally practices doing exactly this in war games.

    That’s why North Korea is now deploying large numbers of what it calls “tactical” nuclear weapons — to give it the ability to target US forces in South Korea and Japan in the event that Kim thinks an invasion is inevitable.

    PS: He’s not giving them up.

    Here are more links to photos & satellite images from the NK parade.

    Now, not all of NK’s SRBM/MRBMs will be nuclear armed, & the quality of the NK missiles may leave a lot to be desired, but these are very destabilizing developments, & will incentivize SK to develop its own independent nuclear capability as a deterrence, especially if Trump is elected again.

  7. 7.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: If history is any guide, the Biden (or Harris?) Administration will eventually release the AIM-120Cs & AIM-9Xs to Ukraine, months later than necessary.

  8. 8.

    Adam L Silverman

    @hrprogressive: We’ve been in WW III since at least 2011. The only ones who want a wider, regional war are Bibi and his extremist coalition partners, Sinwar, the Quds Force guys, Putin, and the 30 million or so self described Christian Zionists in the US.

  11. 11.

    Jay

    @Anonymous At Work:

    They are an upgrade in capacity over the MIG-29’s and SU-27’s. The F-16’s can carry, fire and drop anything in the NATO arsenal.

    A big issue from the MIG-29’s is that their radars have to be on the target from painting, through missile launch and flight to target, providing a big alert to the target aircraft and a target for ruzzian  AARM’s. ruZZian fighters have longer ranged “fire and forget” air to air missiles. They are also limited in what they can carry from glide bombs and can’t carry Stormshadow or SCALP missiles.

    The F-16’s have a better “look down, shoot down” ability and can “fire and forget” AIM missiles, which sadly in the versions they are being given, are still outranged by russian air to air missiles. Apparently, the Soviet/ruzzian radar warning systems arn’t “all that” but the F-16’s are.

    Ukraine’s SU-27 fleet has been hard pressed. They started the war with about 30, and have had to rebuild mothballed airframes to manage to just keep about 24 in the air. The SU-27’s can launch, (Ukrainian engineering) SCALP and Stormshadow missiles, glide bombs, but are not much of a fighter aircraft, severely outclassed by every Gen 4 fighter.

    It would take a full 130 F-16’s and the latest NATO kit to really change the air war but the F-16’s are better kit than what Ukraine has. Used tactically, they can make a difference, even if there are only 6 so far.

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @hrprogressive: The Iranians will definitely retaliate. Exactly how and when I do not know and cannot say. The question becomes whether Bibi will take what Biden told him on their call last Thursday to heart: that if the former escalates again, the US will not cover his ass and protect Israel from the response.

    Quite simply Israel has never won a war with Hezbullah. Right now the IDF is exhausted. As a majority reserve force it is designed for no longer than 60 days of continuous operations. It has now been fighting for almost 10 months. It can’t actually defeat Hamas in Gaza. It has no ability to actually fight Hezbullah in a prolonged major combat operation. Let alone fight against Hamas, Hezbullah, the Houthis, the Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria, and Iran itself.

    This, from Eran Etzion, Israel’s former Deputy Director of it’s National Security Council, lays out what’s going on: (machine translated)

    300 days to the war – summary of the assessment of the situation – 1. Israel, even after the failures of the ship and Shukur, is at a severe, multidimensional strategic disadvantage. political-strategic, security, legal, moral, economic. 2. The gap between reality and the perception of reality, among significant sections of the Israeli public, and among most members of the government and the coalition – is a huge and extremely dangerous gap. 3. Netanyahu, who understands well the dimensions of the failure and is not detached from reality, decided to increase the amount of the bet. He ignites an all-out regional war, forces Iran to be drawn into it directly, hopes to force the US to be drawn into it as well, and has no ability to shape the results of this war. 4. The American administration is at a point of historical weakness, the result of an accumulation of ‘processes’ and unfortunate circumstances. 5. Europe is focused on the war in Ukraine, the Russian threat and the threat of the Trump administration 2.0. 6. Russia and China recognize an opportunity to continue to erode the world order and American hegemony, both through the war in Ukraine, and through the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and a regional war in the Middle East at the worst possible time for the United States. 7. Iran is in a very good position. It has become a vital link in the Russian-Chinese-CPK axis, and it has proven that the “Ring of Fire” model through proxies works perfectly, and Israel has no answer to it. The countermeasures in Tehran do indeed embarrass it severely, but it will respond to it, and it is not a game changer at the strategic level. 8. The American attempt to form an anti-Iranian coalition, which on the eve of 7/10 seemed to be ripening (the American-Saudi defense agreement, normalization with Israel, “NATO Middle East”); was actually thwarted by Sinauer’s decisive strategic move, In my opinion, in significant Iranian involvement, in the 7/10 attack, in the entry of Hezbollah and the Houthis into the campaign, and in the conduct of a successful war of attrition against Israel. 9. It is true that this coalition worked well on “the night of the missiles” and proved its potential, and it is hoped that in the coming days and weeks it will also help Israel deal with the expected Iranian reaction, which will probably be multi-arena. But Netanyahu’s refusal to accept the Biden outline already many months ago thwarted the big move, prevented Israel from a historic strategic achievement, and dug us a huge hole that will be very difficult to get out of. 10. This morning we are on the verge of a severe and uncontrollable deterioration, under extremely difficult opening conditions, when the government is run by a clearly incompetent person, who knowingly endangers national security, destroys the present and destroys the future of all of us, solely for the sake of his survival in power and evading the law Justice for his multiple crimes and misdeeds, before and after 7/10. The government consists of a collection of impersonalists, with a diverse composition of messiahs, dodgers, corrupters, cowards and opportunists. The decision-making mechanisms are paralyzed and dysfunctional. The gatekeepers are deterred and weakened. 11. The top of the IDF and the security system are at a loss. They understand the situation and the seriousness of the situation very well, but are afraid to take a position in public, and Netanyahu recognizes their weakness and exploits it. 12. Let’s say this in the sharpest way – in a regional war in the current context and timing, Israel will not win. under no circumstances. Israel is much more vulnerable than any of its enemies, and certainly from the “strangle ring” coalition as a collective. The absorption capacity of the Houthis, of Hezbollah and Lebanon, and certainly of Iran, is much greater than that of Israel. A country small in its territory and population, modern, Western, immersed up to its neck in a 300-day war in which it is not winning, should not initiate a more extensive war with stronger enemies than Hamas. A country that all its friends demand from it to stop the war and go to an agreement for the release of hostages and a cease-fire, should not reject these proposals with contempt, and expect overwhelming support in the form of arms shipments, a veto in the UN, and the stopping of the war under conditions favorable to Israel. This will not happen. A country whose economy is already in the worst crisis since 1973, should not raise the stakes and burden the economy with another unbearably heavy burden. A country whose reserve forces are worn out, and whose regular army is damaged, should not send them into a more difficult war without being able to end it on good terms. And of course, a country where only a very specific part of its population bears the burden, and this part is mostly not represented in the government; A government that increases the burden on that part, and continues to allow the evasion and inaction of the parts it represents; A government that has no public legitimacy, that 70% and more demand its resignation in disgrace, that has demonstrated incompetence and abuse of office since its inception, such a government cannot expand the war. 13. All the jingoists (war mongers) in the government, the media, the networks and the public are required to answer one question – what is the realistic end state of the regional war that you encourage? What does the agreement that will end the war with Lebanon look like? What does the agreement that will end the war with Iran look like? After all, you don’t even have a convincing answer for the “day after” in Gaza, which is the simplest, smallest and weakest of all these arenas… The truth is that none of them has any answer or even the edge of an answer. Israel cannot “overcome” Iran alone. It outnumbers us by a lot. This is even greater than the US, not theoretically but practically, see the Iraq entry. Israel cannot even “overcome” Hezbollah, nor reliably “remove the threat” for many years. Worse, the US in its current weakness, and in the state of its relations With Russia and China, it will be very difficult for Israel to close this war. It will need not only Iranian consent – which of course will come with a heavy price tag – but also Russian and Chinese consent, and these two powers have no interest in shortening the campaign. on the contrary. They have an interest in prolonging it, exposing the short-handedness of the US, which “is not even capable of restraining Israel”, benefiting (Iran and Russia, not China) from the rise in oil prices and its expected effect on the elections in the US, and in general tilting the balance even more The global power in their direction. This means that Israel could degenerate into very long months of war of an intensity it has never experienced, and I will spare more detailed descriptions here. 14. All studios, commentators and media were supposed to deal with all of this, and only this. But they are conducted – not all and not all the time, but most of them – in a kind of parallel universe. In this universe, Israel only has to decide, to be “offensive”, and then in a very short time (weeks? months?) Hezbollah will kneel before us, Iran will kiss Netanyahu’s ring, and the Hutim will ask to convert. Even experienced people, who were supposed to be sober, if not before then after the last 300 days, mutter “we have no choice, we must remove the threat, even if the price will be heavy”. Well, the price will be prohibitive, and the threat will not be removed. 15. My friend Aron Miller, the former State Department official, who together and separately plowed the fields of peace processes in the Middle East for decades, wrote a sad, sober and difficult tweet yesterday – Whether we end up in a regional war, the future seems pretty clear: Seemingly never-ending, grinding wars of attrition between Israel and Iran and its proxies with few if any off-ramps and prospects for enduring de-escalation. This black future, what Naftali Bennett called “Middle Eastern Sparta”, what Netanyahu called “life on the sword”, what the Samotrichs and their rabbis call “our most beautiful days”, what the evangelicals call “the war of Gog and Magog” after which all Jews will see the light And they will become Christians, this future is what Netanyahu and the members of the government of destruction are cooking for us. 16. So whoever believes that this is a “war without choice”, whoever thinks that this whole analysis is wrong, is welcome to propose an alternative analysis and argue. Those who understand the seriousness of the situation, are required not to put up with it but to fight against its perpetrators. Netanyahu and the government do not have a mandate to expand the war. point. They have the right to think that this is the necessary move, and that they are the ones suitable to lead it. But they must go to the people and receive their faith in this way of theirs and in them as its leader. According to all the polls, the majority of the people are not with them, but demand the signing of a deal, the end of the war and going to the elections. 17. A competent government would take advantage of the setbacks to turn to the US, Egypt, Qatar and the entire international community and say – we are interested in signing the deal. Now. Help us bring Hamas to the table, help us restore Gaza and build an effective and pragmatic Palestinian government, help us To build a new regional order, based on the Biden plan, we are all in. 18. PS – There is much more to be said about the internal arena, about the rampant messianic-political coup, about the wave of the descent from the land of our good sons, our daughters, their sons and daughters, about the nothingness of the “opposition”, but Enough said and Enough sad.

  19. 19.

    HumboldtBlue

    @Adam L Silverman: ​ 

    Iran has decided to attack Israel, Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Monday amid an intense diplomatic push to avoid any further military action that could spark a direct war between the Islamic Republic and the Jewish state.

    Iran’s message was delivered to Israel by Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, who called Katz to explain that he had received this information from acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri.

    “Iran has informed us that it intends to attack Israel,” Katz said.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks for posting Eran Etzion’s Tweet! I think even he has elided the consequences of Israel’s past & ongoing war crimes & crimes against humanity (& credible accusations of genocide) in Gaza, of enormous proportions. Most of the world won’t forget this dark stain on Israel even if Bibi sudden turns around & asks help to seal a deal w/ Hamas. However, ending the war, recovering the remaining hostages, & moving on toward a multilateral reconstruction effort for Gaza would undermine the stated justification for Hezbollah & the Houthis to attack Israel & western shipping in the Red Sea & probably result in much greater international pressure on them to cease their attacks, even though Hezbollah, the Houthis & Iran are clearly cynical actors that do not give a care about the suffering of the actual Gazans.

    I don’t think the PRC wants to see a wider & higher intensity regional war between Israel (possibly the US) & Iran/proxies, the resulting disruption in oil & gas supplies will do no favors for the precarious Chinese economy (although the PRC has been stockpiling any & all commodities since the pandemic & has built up huge stocks). However, the Xi & the CPC leadership will certainly try to take advantage of the situation, whatever happens. If the US gets stuck in another (& perhaps worse) ME quagmire, the PRC will find ways to maximize its interests & influence, & come in as the “peacemaker” after all sides have exhausted themselves (since the US has little credibility to bargain bilaterally w/ Iran, Hezbollah, the PA or the Houthis).

    I have been struck at how strongly the PRC has positioned itself on the Palestinian side (& the “Arab Street”) since 10/7, at least rhetorically. Pro-Palestine has been the official narrative in the PRC since the Cold War, but sine the 80s the PRC has not been vocally anti-Israel, even w/ past Israeli excesses in Lebanon, Gaza & the WB. Sino-Israeli relations had been overwhelmingly driven by trade, investment & tech. collaboration, largely devoid of ideology. However, two things has changed in recent years: 1) the Trump & Biden Administration has been twisting Israeli arms hard to decouple from the PRC technologically & economically, & Israel has had to relent to a degree however reluctant, so Israel is becoming less useful to the PRC; 2) Israel has really maneuvered itself into a strategic cul-de-sac since 10/7, & the PRC could not stake a neutral stance & retain credibility w/ the Global South (Modi’s early embrace of Bibi undermined India’s standing in the Global South, & India has had to recalibrate a bit since). Indeed, the Israeli war of vengeance in Gaza, & the US’ clear lack of willingness to restrain Israel has collapsed the US’ credibility  & standing among the elites & the masses everywhere outside of the West (& among the masses in parts of the West, too), while boosting the PRC’s by default, w/o the PRC doing anything meaningful at all (PRC rhetoric wrt the events in the ME is largely comprised of trolling/sniping at the US).

    Of course, PRC entities are happy to supply Israel w/ body armor & civilian drones for its war of retribution in Gaza, Chinese battery EVs are rapidly gaining market share in Israel, & PRC state owned companies continue to run multiple civilian ports in Israel, so the economic relationship continues.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @HumboldtBlue: Iran has communicated its intensions through Qatar & Hungary, so it is probably looking to do more damage than the retaliation in Apr. for the Israel attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus to reestablish the credibility of its deterrence (we’ll see how many Iranian munitions actually get through the Israeli/US/UK/Jordanian/Saudi defenses this time), but not so much damage that it prompts Bibi to escalate further.

    The problem is that all it takes is for one of the parties to miscalculate where the red line for the other party lies, or for Murphy’s Law to assert itself, even if every party believes it is acting rationally, calculatingly, clearly communicating the proportionality of its actions & the limits of its intentions. I think perhaps the “Guns of August” dynamic better describes the current situation in the ME than across the Taiwan Strait.

  23. 23.

    Jay

    Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦
    @bayraktar_1love
    11h
    According to Defense Express Russians again used a North Korean-made KN-23 ballistic missile during a massive attack on Ukraine. The launch was recorded from the territory of Russia in the direction of Bila Tserkva. The missile fell on the territory of the Kyiv region, probably after an explosion in the air. The Ballistic missile launch on Bila Tserkva was reported on July 31st.

    KN-23, which Russia received a warhead equivalent to 1000 kilograms in TNT. At the same time, the established maximum launch range of these missiles is up to 650 kilometers.

    Full article: defence-ua.com/news/rf_pid_c…

    https://nitter.poast.org/bayraktar_1love/status/1820498328884228409#m

  24. 24.

    sab

    @YY_Sima Qian: Add to that that Bibi doesn’t  have a concern for anyone but himself and possible jail time. ( He is very very corrupt, even by Israeli standards.)

    And Israelis have had three or four generations of education/indoctrination that nobody in the world cares about them except themselves. At this point that is true, but twenty yeaes ago it wasn’t. They blew that massive goodwill all on their own.

    They consider Americans to be just naive chumps ( “friers” in Hebrew.) Israelis believe that American Jews (who mostly aren’t actual Jews, being Reformed)  just don’t understand, although they (American Jews)  live and function quite well in a society where they are only 1% of the population but are still well regarded.

    I recognize that America is riddled with anti- semitism,  but nothing at all like what the Israelis think. They are in their own bubble and making very bad choices.l

    ETA Should I delete this comment? it seems completely inappropriate for a Ukraine thread.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @sab: The Israeli ultra-rightwing doesn’t consider most Israeli Jews to be “real Jews”. See the straight up Fascistic rhetoric from the new commander of the Gaza Division (video through the link):

    כאן חדשות

    @kann_news

    מפקד אוגדת עזה הנכנס, תא”ל ברק חירם: “אנחנו כצבא סדיר הופתענו
    ונכשלנו. מאז אנו משיבים מלחמה שערה. עמידתנו איתנה, בניגוד מוחלט לתרבות הישראלית, המנותקת ממחויבות עברה ומעול עתידה ומתמסרת אל הרגע. מבעד לעטיפת ההנאה וההוללות, צפים הערכים והאמונות העתיקות שמאחדים את כולנו והופכים אותנו לעם הנצח”
    @ItayBlumental

    Translated from Hebrew by Google
    The incoming Gaza Division commander, Brigadier General Barak Hiram: “We as a regular army were surprised and failed. Since then we have been fighting back. Our standing is firm, in complete contrast to the Israeli culture, which is detached from the commitment of the past and the burden of the future and devotes itself to the moment. Through the cover of pleasure and debauchery, float the ancient values ​​and beliefs that unite us all and make us the people of eternity”
    @ItayBlumental

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