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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 895: For Want of a Nail!!!!!!!

War for Ukraine Day 895: For Want of a Nail!!!!!!!

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing well after her treatment yesterday. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, tonight’s update is going to be terse, grim, and if you don’t want your mellow harshed from today’s domestic to the US news, you may want to pass on by.

As I start drafting tonight’s post – 8:50 PM EDT/3:50 AM local in Ukraine – Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts in the east and the central/north-central oblasts of Ukraine are under air raid alert with a strike reported in Khmelnitskyi Oblast.

Shortly after I published last night’s update, which was right after the air raid alert in Kharkiv went back up, the Russian’s launched an Iskander barrage at Kharkiv City:

If you’re wondering why this keeps happening, why Ukraine can’t stop it from happening, part of the reason is going to hurt. One part, obviously, is because Putin and the Russian are undertaking a genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine. If Putin can take it Ukraine and Russianize it into the Ruskiy Mir, great. If not, he’ll destroy it, rebuild, and then repopulate it with real ethnic Russians from the Russian metropoles. The other part, however, is that President Biden has appointed the worst, most risk averse senior national security team possible, which has prevented Ukraine from actually using the weapons they’ve been provided from prosecuting legitimate military targets in Russia. Targets, that had they been targeted when Ukraine had the opportunity, would make it much, much, much harder for Russia to carry out its genocidal attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Forbes has the details: (emphasis mine)

For months, Ukrainian officials have been begging their foreign allies for permission to use the best donated weaponry—in particular, powerful ballistic missiles—to hit Russian warplanes that have been parking out in the open at airfields inside Russia within quick flying time of Ukrainian cities.

For months, those allies have demurred, citing the risk of escalation as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 29th month.

Clearly growing impatient, Ukrainian forces have stepped up their attacks on the most vulnerable Russian airfields—strictly deploying Ukrainian-made munitions. On Saturday, Ukrainian drones targeted Morozovsk air base in southern Russia 200 miles from the front line in eastern Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, the drone raid destroyed a Russian air force Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber, damaged two additional Su-34s and burned down an ammunition warehouse.

The directorate published satellite imagery of the base depicting what it described as “extensive areas of scorched earth” resulting from the ammo cooking off in the aftermath of the attack.

Since dropping its first crude glide bombs on Ukraine last year, the Russian air force has really embraced the satellite-guided munitions. Thanks to their pop-out wings, the hastily-built “KAB” glide bombs possess just enough range—25 miles or more, depending on the model—to allow Su-34 fighter-bombers to hit Ukrainian troops and civilians from beyond the range of the best Ukrainian air defenses.

Every day, the Russians drop as many as 100 KABs, some weighing more than three tons. “Unfortunately, in urban environments, their large and frequent use is highly effective,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight reported.

“Even though they are often imprecise, the sheer payload is enough to demolish or severely damage buildings, even if the KAB doesn’t hit the target directly,” Frontelligence Insight continued. “When buildings collapse, underground basements trap people inside, making rescue operations impossible, especially when the Russians conduct double and triple-tap attacks.”

As urban demolition weapons, the KABs have been a deciding factor in practically every recent Russian victory all along the 700-mile front line. “In the past, like in the battle for Bakhmut [last year], it sometimes took days for Russian artillery to damage buildings enough to force defenders to retreat,” Frontelligence Insight explained. “Now, entire buildings can collapse in seconds, rendering them useless for defensive purposes.”

It’s a top priority of the government in Kyiv to blunt the glide-bombing campaign by destroying the bombers, the bombs—or both.

There was a rare opportunity to deliver a major blow against the KAB infrastructure earlier this summer, when the Russian air force’s 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment parked dozens of Su-34s—out of roughly 100 in service—in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base in southern Russia 100 miles from the border with Ukraine.

Voronezh Malshevo is a reasonably well-defended base, so the Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire their best American-made Army Tactical Missile System rockets at the base. The ATACMs are almost impossible to intercept.

But the administration of U.S. Pres. Joe Biden said no. “Our policy has not changed,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, told reporters last month. As before, Ukraine would only be allowed to fire ATACMS at targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

The Russians observed the heated diplomacy regarding ATACMS—and made a rare proactive decision to pull the Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo and other border airfields.

“Between the second half of June and mid-July, Russian forces relocated a lion’s [share] of valuable military assets away from the border area with Ukraine,” Frontelligence Insight noted. The departure of Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo was among “the most notable movements.”

Today many of the Su-34s are at bases hundreds of miles from the border. They’re not invulnerable to Ukrainian drones—the farthest-flying models range more than 1,000 miles.

But they are safe from most Ukrainian drones, as well as from the ATACMS, the most powerful of which range just 190 miles. If the White House ever grants permission for ATACMS raids on Russian bases, it might be too late. The most valuable targets may be too far away.

Obviously, a handful of Su-34s—as well as some stocks of KAB bombs—remain at border airfields such as Morozovsk: Ukraine just hit three of the planes plus their ammo.

But to end the glide-bombing campaign, Ukraine needs to destroy scores of Su-34s—not one or several. And smarter Russian deployments are making that harder to achieve.

For want of a nail!!!

I want to make another point here. The Biden administration has gone all in on an initiative to reduce and mitigate civilian harm. Secretary Austin issued a memo, which was followed by the creation of an action plan and then a DOD instruction. There is a heavy emphasis on protecting civilians. On working with allies and partners to do so. They even set up a Civilian Protection Center of Excellence as directed in the action plan. You know what the Biden administration is not doing? Not doing anything to help protect Ukrainian civilians. It is actively preventing Ukraine from protecting its own civilians. The hypocrisy, strategic malpractice, and risk aversion is overwhelming. We’re not talking about letting Ukraine attack Red Square or the Kremlin or the Winter Palace or even Putin’s mansion in Sochi. We’re talking about legitimate military targets that are targeting and killing Ukrainian civilians every single day! These absolutely unjustifiable decisions aren’t making anyone safer. Not the Ukrainians, not our NATO and EU allies and partners, and not Americans.

For want of a fucking nail!!!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

In July, Our Warriors Have Used More Drones Than the Occupier – Address by the President

6 August 2024 – 19:03

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, I held a meeting of the Staff. Several issues. The first issue is, of course, the front, the report of the Commander-in-Chief – he took part in the meeting directly from the frontline. He is right there. He reported on all directions of our actions. And the toughest ones are the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, as well as the Kharkiv region and all other combat directions – we leave none of them neglected. We are doing our best to support our units and destroy the occupier. I thank each of our combat brigades, all the soldiers and commanders who are destroying the enemy with all their might and, in particular, using our drone capabilities with precision. Our Ukrainian Defense and Security Forces are already gaining the upper hand in this regard – and in July, our warriors have used more drones than the occupier. This should be a steady trend at the front – for all types of drones our units have.

From FPVs to all the others, including our long-range drones, which are already having a strategic impact on the war. They are influencing it in Ukraine’s favor. And our Ukrainian lead in drones can not only be the factor that brings a just end to the war, but will also make Ukraine a security provider for other countries. Today, our Government officials from the Ministry of Strategic Industries and the Ministry of Finance also presented reports on drone production and financing. We have already contracted one million drones for this year, and more will follow in total within the year. We are not disclosing all the details now, but our drone production capabilities are steadily increasing, and we are working not only with state funding but also with partners, so that they invest in our drone production. Into something that is helping us defend ourselves now, and in the future, will help to keep safe all those who value life and who are now standing shoulder to shoulder with us. Also today, the Staff adopted a decision on our missile program – to increase funding. And separately, the Minister of Defense reported on the provision of our brigades with weapons and on relevant negotiations with our partners. I am grateful to all in the world who are truly willing to support us in the way we need to in order to achieve results now and in the future. The advantage of our warriors over the occupier is something we can all achieve together. Everyone who works for the sake of our independence in Ukraine. Everyone in the world, who truly values international law and wants to achieve a real, lasting, and just peace as soon as possible. The determination, courage, and support of Ukrainians now – the truly courageous decisions of our partners – is what guarantees that Russia will not succeed in imposing permanent chaos and wars on the world instead of normal life.

And one more thing.

Right now, a rescue operation is still underway in Kharkiv after the Russian strike. There are people under the rubble, and we are doing our utmost to help them. At the moment, we know that 12 people were injured. Unfortunately, one person died. My condolences to the families and friends.

All necessary forces are involved in the rescue operation. And we will certainly respond to Russia. Russian terror will inevitably be punished. And I thank everyone in the world who is helping Ukraine get closer to this goal.

Glory to Ukraine!

It is important to remember that the neo-fascist domestic British terrorism targeting migrants was fomented by an ongoing information warfare influence operation from Russian and Russian backed actors in the information environment.

From The Telegraph:

The Kremlin launched a disinformation campaign in March, spreading false claims that MI6 and other Western intelligence agencies were responsible for a terror attack in Moscow.

Asked whether Moscow’s attitude towards the UK was “as grave as you can recall”, Sir Richard replied: “Yes, I think it is at the moment, certainly towards the West.

“The Russians think they’re in an existential conflict with us. That’s my view of the international situation. I think we are slightly complacent, and I don’t think people necessarily understand the danger that we’re in.”

Sir Richard said he had “not specifically heard of” a fake news website called Channel3Now, which was behind the false information about the Southport attacker.

“Clearly, it’s one of the sources of this activity out of Russia,” he added. “I think the people running these [sites] have a pretty open instruction to exploit opportunities as they identify them.

“They’re not going to get clearance from Putin, but it’s part of the nature of their setup and how they operate … They’re not going to act with restraint.”

Sir Richard said his own email account had been targeted by Russian hackers, despite him no longer holding an intelligence role. “You can see the extent of the effort they’re prepared to put into these activities,” he added. “I can’t say I’m a strategically crucial person.”

Asked whether X, formerly Twitter, had become a “wild west” under the control of Elon Musk, its owner, Sir Richard said Mr Musk’s approach to the social media platform represented “a split in America between those who believe in control and … absolute freedom and anarchy”.

Lord Mann, the Government’s independent adviser on anti-Semitism, suggested on Wednesday that Sir Keir Starmer should take action to regulate X, writing: “The way Twitter is framing its algorithms towards violent extremism requires careful but decisive action from legislators. Online harm is back on the agenda.”

Russian backed actors that are being amplified by the Starlink Snowflake:

Here’s a good rundown on how the Starlink Snowflake is being a useful idiot for Russia:

🧵🚨1/ It’s insane that @Elonmusk replied to @europeinvasionn’s tweet about UK riots. The account EuropeInvasionn, as I have stated many times now, is an influence operation. It’s a hijacked X account that exclusively deals in anti-migrant & anti-Muslim great replacement disinfo

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2/ EuropeInvasion was the most influential account spreading the false news that the attacker in #Southport was a Muslim. Arguably one of the biggest vectors in the disinfo potentially contributing to the violence in the UK
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3/ A day later, it was the most widely shared account spreading an unsubstantiated and unfounded rumour that a murder in Ipswich was conducted by a Somali immigrant.Image
4/ It has 387k followers and has only been tweeting since February. It used to be an account with the handle @makcanerkripto. It was event suspended briefly by Twitter last month but reinstated.
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5/ Musk also replies to the likes of @visegrad24 and @radiogenoa – similar accounts spreading racist bigotry. That Musk seems to think there will be civil war in UK or Europe is either because he follows such accounts, or because that’s a narrative he is keen to
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6/ And by ‘insane’ I don’t mean ‘surprising’, I mean it’s absurd that he can do this and continue to get away with being a race baiting bigot. 
7/ And in this particular case, why this account. How did he come across it, or was he presented it? Understanding this would be important. 

If you want this stuff to stop, the only way to make it stop is for Russia to be defeated. It’s ability to wage conventional war, to use its conventional capabilities to make war on civilians in Ukraine in pursuit of Putin’s genocidal objectives, and its ability to wage political warfare, including information warfare, psychological operations, influence operations, and its ongoing wetwork campaign of assassination and sabotage. To do this you allow Ukraine to prosecute legitimate military targets. You actually put the defense industrial base on a war footing. You actually make significant investments in counterintelligence, counter-influence, and counter-political warfare capabilities and operations.

Or you can continue to do what the Biden administration is doing, which is lose the third world war and sacrifice Ukrainian lives while doing so.

The reason:

Pokrovsk:

Chasiv Yar:

Soledar:

Kyiv:

Kherson Oblast:

Russian occupied Crimea:

Crimean Telegram channels report explosions in the area of Oktyabrskoye airfield and the neighboring train station.

According to reports, the airfield no longer hosts aircraft but is used as an ammunitions warehouse.

Crimean “authorities” already closed down the railway between Simferopol and Dzhankoi.

Kursk Oblast Russia:

More from Rob Lee:

Some early thoughts about this operation. The most important factor in the war right now is Russia’s manpower and force availability advantage, in particular with infantry. That is the primary reason why Ukraine is struggling to hold back Russian advances in Donetsk oblast. Russia’s Kharkiv offensive further stretched Ukraine’s reserves, which means Ukrainian commanders have limited forces to reinforce units that are under pressure or to stop breakthroughs. 
The situation on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts is serious. The war has not seen large swings of the front line since 2022, but Russia’s advances on the Pokrovsk front over the past three weeks have been relatively rapid for the 2023-2024 period. So the question is how this operation will affect the fighting elsewhere and whether these forces could have been employed more effectively in Donetsk oblast. 2/ 
Compared to previous crossborder operations, this one is notable in that it appears to involve Ukrainian conventional forces and not just from GUR. Ukraine likely also is not able to employ HIMARS in support of the operation because the US only authorized strikes in Belgorod oblast relevant to Russia’s Kharkiv offensive. 3/ 
Ultimately, the two previous large crossborder operations in May-June 2023 and March 2024 had little effect on the fighting on the priority axes. The 2023 operation caught Russia by surprise and may have been a relatively effective economy of force mission (though it did not force Russia to redeploy significant forces from priority areas) but the March 2024 operation was far less successful. 4/ 
Since then, Russia stood up a Northern Group of Forces leading the Kharkiv offensive, and has strengthened its forces on the border. So Russia already has greater forces/conventional capabilities in the area, better command and control, and it has conscript units that can be deployed, which are not used in Ukraine. It is unlikely this operation will force Russia to pull significant forces from Ukraine. 5/ 
Russia has improved its dynamic targeting with persistent ISR coverage from UAVs behind Ukrainian lines, which are used to locate targets for Lancets, Krasnopol, Iskander-M, and other PGMs. Russian UAV footage of Ukrainian units moving across the border suggests this problem has not been solved, which can make it dangerous to mass armor. 6/ 
A limited operation might be able to achieve limited goals, but a more ambitious operation carries greater risks. It is unlikely this operation will have a significant effect on the course of the war, and previous crossborder operations did not have serious domestic political ramifications for Putin. 7/ 
We only have limited information right now and the size and scope of the operation isn’t clear, but largescale crossborder operations are more difficult now than they were in 2023 and Russia continues to advance in the Donbas. 8/

And Tataragami’s take:

You need to consider the broader theater. The Russians are holding there their reserve forces, including guards battalions for logistics bases, conscripts, territorial defense units, FSB rapid reaction forces, and some leftover units from the previously planned Sumy operation. None of these will affect the main strategic direction – Donetsk oblast. We’re losing ground in key areas like New York and Toretsk right now, with Russian forces pushing closer to Pokrovsk. Yet, we are talking about some secondary rear units in Kursk Oblast, which affect the situation on the frontlines where it matters

It is possible this is some type of MIL-DEC (military deception) operation or part of a Maskirovka strategy to divert attention from and provide cover for something else the Ukrainians are doing. But I agree with both Tatarigami and Lee, this doesn’t make a lot of sense and is unlikely to yield any significant gains all while diverting precious resources from where they’re needed in the eastern theater.

More from Morosovsk airfield:

So here’s a Russian Sukhoi Su-34 jet destroyed in a Ukrainian attack at Russia’s Morozovsk airbase.

Yes, imagine your reaction if someone had told you on February 24, 2022, that 895 days on, Ukraine would be raiding Russia’s Kursk Oblast (although we have a lot of questions), annihilating Russian airbases and oil refineries, and celebrating the acquiring of Western-provided F-16s.

It looks impressive, but the Ukrainians were only able to kill one Su-34. A month and a half ago they had the chance to get the majority of them, if not all of them but were told no by the Biden administration. They won’t get that chance again any time soon if ever. How many Ukrainians have been killed or wounded in glide bomb and cruise missile attacks in the past 45 days? How much Ukrainian infrastructure? Yes, the Russians are responsible for that. The Biden administration is responsible for not letting the Ukrainians try to prevent it.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

24Comments

  6. 6.

    Dagaetch

    What do you think would happen if Ukraine just…took an action anyway? Maybe it’s wishful thinking on my part, but I feel like while the Biden team would be pissed off, they aren’t in a position to meaningfully reduce our support considering the other European relationships.

  8. 8.

    dimmsdale

    thanks again, Adam, I appreciate your assessment, brutal as it is. I don’t understand how Jake Sullivan and his lot have the effrontery to look Ukrainian fighters in the eye. As you have frequently said, though, it is what it is.

  9. 9.

    lashonharangue

    Thanks Adam.

    I think Austin made a gaffe (unintended true statement) when he said the goal was to weaken Russia (not defeat it). The policy has been consistent, bleed Russia to the last Ukrainian. But not so much as to threaten the break up of Russia or its invasion by China. Kissinger would be proud of this cynicism.

  10. 10.

    Chris

    @lashonharangue:

    One can reasonably ask, what the fuck is the point of bleeding Russia if we have no interest in taking them down any meaningful number of pegs. At that point, it really is looking increasingly like exactly what the far left has accused it of being, the MIC playing with millions of foreigners’ lives with no higher purpose other than a pointless act of dick-measuring.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    Anton Gerashchenko
    @Gerashchenko_en
    13h
    Russian captive Rustam Sagitovich Gareev from the city of Ulyanovsk, 41st Brigade. He signed a contract in Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (almost 3,000 kilometers from Ukraine).

    He told in detail, quite calmly, how many and how the occupiers killed civilians in Russian-occupied Avdiivka and neighboring settlements.

    That’s the whole essence of the so-called “liberators”.

    https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1820831971573973385#m

  14. 14.

    Darkrose

    Thank you Adam. I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t understand a lot of this, but I just don’t get why the Biden administation is working like this. Do they seriously think Putin willl use nukes? Is it a particular faction in the national security team?

  15. 15.

    Anoniminous

    I have no clue what the Biden administration thinks it is doing.  From the outside, with limited information, their actions are completely daft.  Just like the Roosevelt administration with their boycott the Spanish Republic.

  16. 16.

    Anoniminous

    @Chris: ​
    Maybe there isn’t a point. Maybe they’re just running around with their thumbs up their asses, like Viet Nam.

  18. 18.

    bjacques

    Thanks as always, Adam. Harsh news but a necessary reminder of what else is at stake in November. I hope that Harris watched closely as Biden was poorly served by the Blob as Biden watched Obama get shafted by the GOP, so that her administration’s foreign policy will be more assertive. I have no basis for this, and I think you said something to the contrary a little while back, in regards Ukraine, but I still entertain that hope.

  19. 19.

    karen gail

    I have mostly stopped reading the reports on this war; it is sickening to me that the US is willing to supply weapons but not willing to allow the Ukrainians to defend themselves properly.

    As a teen I was friends with a Ukrainian family; the parents had married in a displaced person camp and oldest son was born there. They were basically treated like cattle; this was back during WWII, yet here we are in this day and age still treating the Ukrainians like they are less. We ship weapons but don’t allow them to use them? Meanwhile the world stands and watches as the bombing continues and does nothing to really help.

  20. 20.

    Haroldo

    Thank you, Adam (as always).

    This has been mentioned previously (eg, bjacques above), but has there been a previous discussion of how a Harris administration would approach Ukraine?

  21. 21.

    Chris

    @Anoniminous:

    Roosevelt’s policy wasn’t daft.  It was consistent with the American stance: “we hate fascists but we also hate socialists, the Spanish Republic is full of the latter, so we don’t think they’re worth saving from the former.”  How much of this was FDR personally versus the foreign policy conservatives who still had a stranglehold on Congress, I don’t know, but either way, it’s the logical response given that particular choice of U.S. policies.

    In Biden’s case, on the other hand, we’ve clearly decided we have a preference.  We’re just not willing to do anything more than “we must do something.  This is something.  Therefore, it’s enough.”  That is daft.

  22. 22.

    Chris

    @Anoniminous:

    If this is Vietnam, then we’re in the position the Russians were in then: the only major player that’s not shedding any blood, the people with by far the easiest job, all we have to do is keep supplying one side until it wins.

    The fact that despite being handed Khrushchev’s position we’ve somehow turned into the new LBJ is a grand testament to our leaders’ incompetence.

  23. 23.

    Chris

    @bjacques:

    Is the problem the Blob, or is it the actual elected politicians?

    There’s a lot to support the former proposition, but a lot to support the latter too.  Biden’s been around the block a few times.  He’s shown that he isn’t one to be led around by the nose by the foreign-policy-industrial-complex.  And ultimately, the buck stops with him.  Just like it will with Harris.

    And while I’m there for criticizing the Blob a lot of the time, and I know some of their luminaries (hello, Kissinger) have hardly distinguished themselves here, I have a hard time believing that there aren’t also a decent number of them who would love to open the floodgates to Ukraine aid.  Most of these people aren’t Russophiles.  They’re Cold Warriors.  If World War Two was the birth of the Blob, then the Cold War was its baptism, first communion, and confirmation all in one.  They live for this kind of shit.

  24. 24.

    Matt

    The other part, however, is that President Biden has appointed the worst, most risk averse senior national security team possible, which has prevented Ukraine from actually using the weapons they’ve been provided from prosecuting legitimate military targets in Russia.

    Have the Ukrainians considered reporting that Hamas is hiding inside those targets? That seems to be a “get out of international law free” card with Blinken et al.

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