Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The willow is too close to the house.

If marriage is the equivalent of selling yourself into slavery, women with self respect should reject the offer.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

Let’s show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

“Let’s not pretend [Trump] wants to engage in high-minded discourse.”

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Republicans can’t even be trusted with their own money.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

“And when the Committee says to “report your income,” that could mean anything!

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

The gop couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

He imagines himself as The Big Bad, Who Is Universally Feared… instead of The Big Jagoff, Who Is Universally Mocked.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

Fani Willis claps back at Trump chihuahua, Jim Jordan.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus (& H5N1) Updates: August 6, 2024

COVID-19 Coronavirus (& H5N1) Updates: August 6, 2024

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The CDC is taking social-media heat for not including the word mask anywhere in their ‘helpful hints’. I think we can all understand why they didn’t — objectively, just getting people to wash their hands after petting the cute baby animals, and hopefully not pick the baby’s pacifier out of the straw and shove it back in the kid’s mouth is worth *something.* Be nice if we all lived in a saner timeline, though…

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Neither H5N1 nor SARS related, but if you or someone in your circle is hesitating about getting the ‘new’ shingles vaccine:

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Worth reading the whole thing:

It’s a major wave now, with an estimated new 900,000 infections per day, as my friend Jay Weiland estimated based on the 2 sources of US wastewater data (definitely worth following him at X or Threads). The slope of rise of SARS-CoV-2 levels is still steep, so we haven’t yet reached the plateau. It’s already towered beyond 4 prior waves of the US pandemic…

We’ve known about the decided growth advantage of the KP.3 and KP.3.1.1 variants for many months. Back in April I wrote here about the concerns over a new wave indexed to these FLiRT variants derived from JN.1 that hit us hard last winter. The FLiRT acronym comes from the new mutations F456L and R346T that showed up in KP.2, as seen at left below. (S-spike, ORF-open reading frame). But note below, it’s no longer FLiRT, since KP.3 does not have the R346T mutation. Instead there’s the Q493E mutation in KP.3 and, added to that, the S31 deletion in KP.3.1.1. The Sato Lab in Japan recently characterized KP.3.1.1, as having the most immune evasion and infectivity of any of the variants derived from and including JN.1. And previously Ben Murrell showed clearly (below, right) KP.3.1.1 had the most prominent growth advantage of all circulating variants out there. No surprise it is rapidly rising to dominance here and elsewhere around the world.

Fortunately, the rise in levels of the virus, still going up in all 4 major US regions (most recent CDC data below) has not been linked with as much severe Covid (absolute increase) as was seen in prior waves, but compared to last week there was a relative increase of 25% of deaths and 12% increase in emergency room visits due to Covid. No matter how you look at it, this is not a benign wave, folks…

Why is this happening?
The virus is relentlessly evolving, getting further and further away as an antigen (how our immune system “sees” the virus) than the strains of virus in the early years of the pandemic. The antigenic distance map below reflects that evolution. JN.1 is further way from the infamous Omicron BA.1 than BA.1 is from the major variants of 2020 and 2021 (Wuhan-ancestral, D614G, Alpha, Delta, Beta). KP.3 and KP.3.1.1. is to the right of JN.1 (not shown), even further away. The virus will not stop here, despite our desire to will it way. It will continue to find new ways to infect and reinfect us, under selection pressure from our prior immunity (be it infections, vaccinations, or combinations). We may also see another “Omicron-like event” in the times ahead, with a profoundly altered virus spike, tens of new mutations, as seen with BA.1 and BA.2.86 (the latter eventually led to JN.1)

Added to problem of the virus‘s evolution and, as a result, is the blunting of our immune response, the big issue of waning immunity. The vaccine boosters only last 4-6 months for protection from severe Covid, do little after early weeks for any protection from infections or spread. The same goes for infections. Neutralizing antibody levels go down. Our interferon first line of defense gets blocked (Shane Crotty called this the “superpower of SARS-CoV-2” in our podcast this week). The virus evolves and, at the same time, our immune response wanes. That’s not a good combination.

The other feature that promotes the virus is our complete let down of mitigation that we know (despite misinformation and disinformation) works. Few people are masking. Little has been done to improve air quality or ventilation. Indoor events are being held with big crowds, making believe that the virus has gone away. It hasn’t. It won’t…

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Reader Interactions

28Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    The CDC is taking social-media heat for not including the word mask anywhere in their ‘helpful hints’

    Also didn’t mention condoms.

  2. 2.

    Baud

    Modern scientific consensus is why the West became dominant.  People who reject it look to Taliban culture as a model.

  3. 3.

    New Deal democrat

    BIobot’s weekly update yesterday stated “the rate of SARS-CoV-2 concentration increase began to slow. The Northeast is the only region that experienced an increase in SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in week 30, with all other regions holding steady. These trends might signal that we are nearing the peak of the summer surge.” The CDC’s update, by contrast, showed increases nationally and in all regions, with a surge particularly in the South. COVID particles in wastewater were at a level a little more than 50% of the last Holiday peak.
     
    The prelimianary death total for the week of July 27 was 304, more than 4x the low of 80 on June 29, and the highest since April. This implies a “final” death toll for that week of about 800. The final death toll for this week is likely to be back over 1000.
     
    The CDC’s variant update least Friday shows about half a dozen KP.x variants make up over 70% of all new cases, with even new LB and LP variants making up over 20%. This spring’s JN.x variants are less than 5%. We normally get lulls when a variant remains dominant for a number of months, so the fact that new variants are popping up almost weekly is not good.

  5. 5.

    OzarkHillbilly

    The vast majority of modern “scientific consensus” is anti-God and anti-human
    I reject it a priori
    No study needed

    The vast majority of modern “scientific consensus” is anti stupidity. Thankfully, Darwin has provided the answer.

  6. 6.

    NeenerNeener

    I haven’t had my next COVID booster because I’m having major mobility problems right now. I’ve got an MRI scheduled for next Wednesday to see what’s going on in my spine, but my brother is supposed to be driving me to/from the hospital and he just spent the weekend in DC at a concert. He’s a Republican, so he doesn’t believe in masking; I’m hoping he’s not positive for COVID by this weekend.

  7. 7.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: Wolfe wants to be retweeted. His comments are a category error.

    “There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ‘my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.’” ― Isaac Asimov

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  8. 8.

    David_C

    Just a note that the “new” recombinant shingles vaccine is just Shingrix. Of course, by the time I was eligible for the original vaccine I had already had shingles.

  9. 9.

    NotMax

    @Another Scott

    Three-fer.

    “The sound of tireless voices is the price we pay for the right to hear the music of our own opinions. But there is also, it seems to me, a moment at which democracy must prove its capacity to act. Every man has a right to be heard; but no man has the right to strangle democracy with a single set of vocal chords.”
    -Adlai Stevenson
    .
    “Unreason and anti-intellectualism abominate thought. Thinking implies disagreement; and disagreement implies nonconformity; and nonconformity implies heresy; and heresy implies disloyalty — so, obviously, thinking must be stopped. But shouting is not a substitute for thinking and reason is not the subversion but the salvation of freedom.”
    – Adlai Stevenson
    .
    “If men as individuals surrender to the call of their elementary instincts, avoiding pain and seeking satisfaction only for their own selves, the result for them all taken together must be a state of insecurity, of fear, and of promiscuous misery.”
    – Albert Einstein
    .

  10. 10.

    sdhays

    Is there not an updated vaccine in the works for this fall?

    Sorry if this has been covered in previous weeks. BJ crashes my phone browser on Wednesdays so sometimes I can’t keep up.

  11. 11.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Lapassionara: There are just a lot of free riders on the people who keep the lights on.

    (A disturbing number of engineers believe these things about science, though–there’s a strain of “science got corrupted with woke bullshit and engineers don’t need it any more, they are the real scientists”. So the free-riding is fractal, it goes all the way down.)

  14. 14.

    oldster

    Thanks for this roundup, Anne Laurie!

    Very useful overview, and I don’t know where else I would find it, if not for you.

  15. 15.

    chemiclord

    While I understand why the CDC didn’t bring up the masking issue, because yes, a massive chunk of the potential attendees have rampant oppositional defiant disorder and would thusly react with anger, rage, and potentially violence if told to mask up… it is so tiring to constantly see the preemptive surrender on the part of federal agencies.

  16. 16.

    Scout211

    @sdhays: Is there not an updated vaccine in the works for this fall?

     

    CDCUpdated 2024-2025 COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendation

    CDC recommends everyone ages 6 months and older receive an updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine to protect against the potentially serious outcomes of COVID-19 this fall and winter whether or not they have ever previously been vaccinated with a COVID-19 vaccine. Updated COVID-19 vaccines will be available from Moderna, Novavax, and Pfizer later this year. This recommendation will take effect as soon as the new vaccines are available.

  17. 17.

    oldster

    @Baud:

    You coastal elites won’t understand this, but we true Americans had real trouble breathing with condoms over our faces.
    Even the non latex ones. Sure, better sensitivity, but still airtight.

  18. 18.

    Obvious Russian Troll

    @Matt McIrvin: I think part of the draw for these people is that engineers (and doctors) can do science-y things without having to engage with the actual science. Which is appealing to anyone who for whatever reason doesn’t like what they see as the ramifications of the science.

    Unfortunately, I’m probably a COVID stat; this is the first time in two weeks where I’ve felt almost normal. (I say “probably” because I never tested positive, but I strongly suspect  I was getting a false negative from the tests I used.)

  19. 19.

    oldster

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Science addresses unsolved problems.
    Engineering only works with solved problems, and solves for new numbers.
    It’s not surprising that one attracts the open-minded who are still searching, and the other attracts dogmatists who think that they already have all the right answers.

  20. 20.

    Soprano2

    @Baud: It’s my understanding that the H5N1 virus is not transmissible from animal to human through the air, so perhaps them not saying anything about masks was because of this.

  21. 21.

    sdhays

    @Scout211: Thanks. That’s what I thought. The Eric Topol post made it seem like “we” weren’t making an updated booster, but reading it again, I guess he means people aren’t getting it.

  22. 22.

    sdhays

    @NotMax: I use Safari on iPhone. It only crashes on Wednesdays, I suspect because a combination of this post and Adam’s Ukraine post are still on the front page. Once the Ukraine post cycles off, everything’s fine again.

    I have other browsers, but I usually can’t be bothered. On iPhone, they’re Safari under the hood anyway.

  23. 23.

    CaseyL

    I got my most recent booster in May. Not sure if the one available now is the same one. The pharmacist did say that recent booster would hold me til the super super annual version was released, but I have no idea if this newest jab is that super duper annual or not.

  24. 24.

    Scout211

    @CaseyL: The one you got in May is the same as the one from last fall. This coming fall is the new updated one.  See my #16.

    Those of us over 65 and immune compromised people will likely be offered another shot in spring 2025 of the updated shot from fall 2024.

  28. 28.

    Matt McIrvin

    In Massachusetts, a bunch of wastewater counts seem to be coming down off a recent peak, but it’s not consistent. It seems to me a bunch of people I know on the East Coast got COVID over the past few weeks but it’s fading now.

Comments are closed.