Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

So many bastards, so little time.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

…and a burning sense of injustice to juice the soul.

We won’t go back.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

“But what about the lurkers?”

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Bogus polls are all they’ve got left. Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls a year from now.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 896: Kursk Oblast

War for Ukraine Day 896: Kursk Oblast

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A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing great. Her next treatment is a week from Monday. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

We go now to footage of Jake Sullivan:

We’ll have more on what’s happening in Kursk after the jump.

Kherson was attacked again overnight:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

It Is Important to Continue Destroying Our Enemy – as Precisely as Our Warriors Can – Address by the President

7 August 2024 – 19:40

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about today.

First – our gratitude goes to all our warriors, to each combat unit, for their bravery. To those who are truly strong, to all who truly serve Ukraine. This also includes the front line – the Pokrovsk direction, the Toretsk and Lyman directions, the Kharkiv region. And all the places where our defense against the occupier’s offensive operations continues. It is important to continue destroying our enemy – as precisely as our warriors can, and as resiliently as it contributes to the overall defense of our country, and as effectively as it produces results. And the more pressure is exerted on Russia – on the aggressor that brought the war to Ukraine, the closer peace will be. Just peace through just force. I thank everyone who makes this possible.

Second. Today I spoke with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi about our actions, our steps. The details will follow later. I also held a meeting with Minister of Defense Umerov on our missile program – its practical implementation. This is something in which we are gaining strength.

Third. Today, there were also several important meetings with our government officials. First of all, we are preparing to launch Army+, our new digital achievement, which will certainly simplify the daily tasks for most commanders of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. And later for every warrior as well. We will present everything soon. Today, we also discussed with government officials several areas of new social support for our people. The kind of support that will provide opportunities for new business in Ukraine, new jobs, and also family support. We must remember that right now while defending our country, we are determining what life in Ukraine will be like after this war. Maximum protection and security for our people and as many opportunities as possible. Opportunities to live and work in Ukraine. We are already preparing all this.

I thank everyone who helps! I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

At the beginning of August 2008 I was at FOB Hammer in Iraq. Hammer, which we inherited from the 3rd Brigade Combat Team/3rd Infantry Division, was built out in the middle of nowhere on what had been the impact area of the Iraqi Army’s old Besmayah artillery range. So we were living on top of bits of depleted uranium and all sorts of other crap. Anyhow, we had as part of our BCT the 3rd Shavnabada Battalion from Georgia. It was our job to facilitate getting them home so they could try to defend against Putin’s subversion and invasion of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. All of us from the senior staff lined up to see them off and to wish them luck. One by one they came to us begging. “You’re coming, right? We came for you! You come! We go get started, you come! Dr. Adam you’re Colonel Pat’s advisor, you tell him to come!” We weren’t coming. President Bush (43) had lied to the leaders of Georgia and Ukraine to get them into the Coalition of the Willing (against al Qaeda). In Iraq, the Georgians were there for us. Same with the Ukrainians in Afghanistan.

I have never been so embarrassed to be an American!

A quick check in at the Olympics:

Delmar, NY:

Too bad, so sad.

More on what’s going on in Kursk Oblast, Russia:

Here is Emil Kastehelmi from the Blackbird Group’s take:

The ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk oblast has begun successfully.

In less than two days, Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough, pushing at least 12 kilometers deep, through two lines of Russian fortifications.

The Russians seem to be in a state of disarray. 1/Image

Why was this possible?

1. Failure of Russian military intelligence or leadership

2. Inadequate Russian border forces

3. Ukraine deciding to commit significant forces in Kursk instead of strengthening the east in order to stop the Russians in Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions

2/ 

The actual goals are still unclear. Ukraine might try to shift some of the Russian focus from other areas to Kursk. Ukraine may also seek better positions for future negotiations, if the purpose of the operation is to take over and hold land areas for a longer period of time. 3/ 
The Kursk operation may also have longer-lasting effects, as it likely forces Russia to commit even more troops to the border. Russia has most likely expected only limited-scale attacks on border villages, not a stronger and wider offensive by elements of multiple brigades. 4/ 
Besides the scale, it’s notable that the current Kursk offensive isn’t conducted by Russian volunteer units, like the previous ones. We actually have not yet seen proof of Russian Volunteer Corps or Freedom of Russia Legion participating in it. 5/ 
As Ukraine tries to take the initiative in the northeastern border regions, there is a possibility for follow-up operations. After creating confusion and forcing Russia to react in Kursk, Ukraine could try to attack somewhere else too, if there are still available forces left. 6/ 
There are also downsides. While Russia loses land, the operation also attrits limited Ukrainian reserves at a time when manpower issues are still present and when there is a dire need for additional units elsewhere, especially in the Donetsk oblast. 7/ 
I’m also dubious that the current developments could force the Russians to halt operations in Donetsk. Russia should have enough reserves to pull from other directions to contain the Ukrainian advance. 8/ 
To alter the strategic situation, Ukraine should expand the breakthrough further. They aren’t threatening any larger cities yet, and have at the moment mostly taken fields and small villages/towns. However, even the current situation is a political nuisance to Russia. 9/ 
It should be noted that the Russian fortifications in the area consist of anti-tank ditches & obstacles and strongpoints. There are not multiple layers of trenches and other infantry fighting positions. In the map, the most significant fortifications in the area. 10/Image
The map at the beginning of the thread is a moderate estimate of the situation. Ukrainians are likely deeper, at least in some areas. However, there’s very limited proof, and the information we receive is mostly from Russian sources. Ukrainian OPSEC is tight at the moment. 11/ 

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor and assess the situation. We’ll post more when we know more. 12/12

Link to our interactive map:

And here’s his Blackbird Group colleague John Helin’s take:

Some thoughts on what’s happening in Kursk.

The Russian border defences were most likely prepared to slow down and stop smaller-scale raids. Looking at the Russian telegram channels it seems that the Russian high command may have also ignored the Ukrainian buildup.

1/Image

As a result, Russia has to scramble the QRF’s and local forces to respond to this. This gives the Ukrainians time and ability to joyride in the area to their souls content.

Reconnaisance groups are largely moving far ahead of the main force to sow more confusion.

2/ 

However, this means that we must be wary about our assessments of the extent of Ukrainian control in the Kursk region. Entering a village or driving through it does not consolidation make if it can’t be held once the Russian reaction forces get to the AO.

3/ 

The situation is going to look great on the map and in media, but I’m still not sure what the goal here is.

According to unreliable reports Ukraine has concentrated elements from 2-4 brigades in the area. These would be gravely needed in the east.

4/ 

To offset the use of manpower and resources and help the crisis areas in the east, Ukraine would need to tie up 2-3 times as many Russian reserves from Donetsk.

That seems unlikely as Russia will most likely respond with local troops, as @Tatarigami_UA has said previously.

5/ 

It’s also unclear how Ukraine is going to hold onto territories here longer term if it can’t hold onto territories in the east, where it has had the time to prepare defences.

Ukraine also can’t hit Russian concentrations with HIMARS when they are in Kursk.

6/ 

It’s also not likely that the idea here was to attack the gas pipeline, as some have suggested.

You don’t need to invade the area to hit the gas pipeline. As Andrew Perpetua has pointed out, the Ukrainians have hit the gas pipeline already.

7/

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Trying to hold onto areas in Kursk while also trying to desperately hang onto areas in the east is likely going to eat up more Ukrainian resources than just concentrating resources to holding the eastern frontline.

Also, these troops can’t be used to rotate other units.

8/ 

The short term benefits in terms of media optics and shifting attention away from the east are obvious, but if Ukraine attempts to hold onto ground, those short-term benefits might soon turn into long-term consequences.

9/ 

Hopefully Ukraine has a clear idea about the goals of this operation, and hopefully those goals are also achieveable both politically and militarily.

As it stands right now I still feel like Ukraine is doing some high stakes gambling while holding a pretty bad hand.

10/10 

And here are Andrew Perpetua’s maps and geolocations:

 

It’s pretty easy to be quick to dismiss the Ukrainian offensive operation in Russia’s Kursk as “just a PR stunt” and criticize it, given the dire situation at Porkovsk and Toretsk.

That, indeed, might be a bad idea.

At the same time, it’s very hard to ignore the fact that…

– given Russia’s strategic superiority in resources and manpower and given Russia’s readiness to tolerate inadequate losses, putting their flags over lifeless ruins of Ukrainian towns at any cost,

– given Ukraine’s own chronic problems and constraints in its ability to fight a full-scale total war in the 21st-century environment against one of the world’s largest militaries,

– given how chronically slow Western defense aid is and how reluctant the West is in making decisions and dropping its “escalation management” limitations,

…Ukraine may need to focus even more on asymmetrical tactics and out-of-the-box solutions that hit Russia hard where it doesn’t expect.

Just fighting through walls of endless Russian frontal attacks slowly closing in under the rain of gliding bombs for months and years is a bleak perspective.

Especially in a situation where the aggressor spends over two years enjoying perfectly safe havens in its territory to concentrate its forces, unfold its logistics, etc., for bombing campaigns and new offensive operations — because heaven forbid Ukraine strikes back too hard.

We’ll see.

And no, “just surrender then” is not an option.

Here’s the full text of tweets 2 and 3 above:

DoS Spox: “I have seen the statements from the Russian government is a little bit rich – them calling up to the provocation given Russia violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, you said, 900 days, and actually goes back much longer. That goes back to 2014 and continues to illegally occupy Ukrainian territory. Ultimately, the decisions about how Ukraine conducts its military operations are decisions that Ukraine makes.”

DoS Spox Miller: “It’s not unusual for the Ukrainians not to notify us that their exact tactics before, before they execute them. It’s a war that they they’re conducting. We provide them with equipment. We provide them with advice, but when it comes to the kind of day by day tactics that they carry out, strikes that they take, sometimes more communications about them, sometimes we’re not. It’s appropriate for them to make those decisions”

Here’s Tatarigami’s assessment:

A few thoughts on the situation in Kursk 🧵:

1/ I still think this could be a serious mistake given the situation in the Donbas. However, the situation can quickly change, proving me wrong. The stakes are very high, and there is significant potential here. The outcome is unclear 

2/ Russian troops on the border, including FSB border troops and conscripts, were enough to stop small incursions but clearly not enough to stop the advance of the combined force that Ukraine assembled for this assault. 
3/ The large number of POWs is a big humanitarian win for Ukraine. This is a good chance to exchange Ukrainian prisoners and a huge win for the families of Ukrainian soldiers who have been waiting for their loved ones for over a year. Incredible job by the Ukrainian Forces. 
4/ When it comes to response forces, Russia is likely to use its internal reserves located in Kursk, Moscow, Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov oblasts. We might also see units from the “North” grouping. The absence of a swift reaction shows that they were not informed or assembled 
5/ So far, there is no evidence of Russian forces slowing down their offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, nor is there evidence that Russia is moving any reserves or units from the “Center” grouping of forces. This can change, but not at the moment, hence my skepticism. 
6/ It’s hard to gauge the moral blow to Russian society. Social media posts and influencers show they are unpleasantly shocked and clearly upset. However, it’s uncertain how long this will last, as they quickly moved on from the losses of Kherson and the retreat from Kyiv Oblast 
7/ Russia failed to identify this assault, showing a significant improvement in Ukrainian counterintelligence measures. Despite advanced ISR capabilities, Russian forces failed to interpret the concentration of Ukrainian forces as an offensive maneuver. 
8/ I currently have serious reservations about the logistical capabilities needed to sustain deep advancements into Russian territory, as well as the ability to continuously support these forces with AD and EW. However, I will refrain from drawing conclusions at this moment. 
9/ Maintaining such intensity of assault and advancement would require a continuous infusion of resources, where Ukraine has constraints. As a result, we might see an eventual slowdown, potentially leading to a pullback or an effort to seize and fortify current positions. 
10/ The lack of timely assembled reaction forces on the RU side gives AFU crucial time to organize their defense. As time goes on, it might become more difficult for Russia to retake territories, similar to how Ukrainian forces are still struggling to regain control in Kharkiv 
11/ Overall, it’s unlikely that we are nearing the end of the operation, so these conclusions are early and preliminary. My hope is for a total victory by the AFU forces, allowing me to write a follow-up apology thread acknowledging how wrong my initial assessment was. 

Sudzha, Kursk Oblast Russia:

Russian military bloggers claim that the city of Sudzha in the 🇷🇺Kursk region has been captured by Ukrainian forces, and that Ukrainian troops are now as much as 25km deep into Russia. Radio silence in Kyiv.
If true, Ukraine has captured more land in the last 48hrs than in the entire summer counter-offensive last year. Yes, that land is in Russia, but if Kyiv can hold it, it can perhaps trade it for occupied Ukrainian land — say in Kharkiv.
Russian military Telegram channels are in full panic mode — vibes of the August 2022 collapse in Kharkiv and Kherson.

Thick fog of war in Russia’s Kursk region, with Ukraine maintaining silence about its biggest cross-border offensive since the war’s start. What Russian sources are reporting:
🇺🇦Ukrainian forces in the last 24 hrs seized several villages, as much as 10km in depth, and are approaching the district capital of Sudzha.
🇷🇺Russia lost two combat helicopters and at least two tanks. Ukraine lost a number of Strykers and Humvees.
Russian forces were caught by surprise, there is recrimination aplenty.
Today we shall see whether it is just a border skirmish or Ukraine actually seeks to occupy a significant patch of Russia to eventually trade for occupied Ukrainian land.

Learn to thread your tweets!!!

The Vovchansk direction:

Chasiv Yar:

The Russian occupied Tendra Spit:

For you drone enthusiasts, this is also from Kursk Oblast in Russia:

We have an update on the Azov Deputy Commander who died in Russian captivity as a POW. He did not die of natural causes. He was beaten and/or tortured to death:

Last week, information appeared that 55-year-old Oleksandr Ishchenko from Azov died after spending more than two years in Russian captivity.

He did not just die, he was murdered – deputy commander of Azov brigade, Sviatoslav Palamar, published the results of a forensic medical examination and a certificate of the cause of death. The documents say that the death was caused by multiple rib fractures, shock and a closed blunt chest injury due to “contact with a blunt instrument.”

“This is not just another cynical violation of the Geneva Convention by the Russians. This is a blow to human honor and dignity, to international law,” Palamar said.

Thousands of Ukrainian Defenders remain in Russian captivity. They are tortured and killed by the terrorist state.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent materials.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

29Comments

  3. 3.

    lore

    Thank you Adam.
    I am confused. Why do they all assume Ukraine is going to occupy Russia? Couldn’t this be a march to the sea situation? Seems like that could damage Putin regime and Russian invasion forces too. At least to this ignorant layman.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    @HumboldtBlue: I’m not privvy to how the Australian intel community does its assessments. I know the PM raised the threat level there about a week or so ago. They clearly have something on their radar that is worrying them. I’m sure it was communicated to whomever handles Swift’s executive security. I expect that’s Gavin DeBecker.

  6. 6.

    Jay

    Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦
    @bayraktar_1love
    9h
    Russian POWs Kursk region of Russia.
    t.me/officer_alex33/3419

    https://nitter.poast.org/bayraktar_1love/status/1821205088377172112#m

    Apparently, over 70 so far, mostly Conscripts, who are not “supposed” to ever be involved in that “SMO”, for the “replentishment fund”. So that’s 70+ “normal genocidal ruZZian families” that will “learn” that the war is not with out consequence.

    I hope that the Ukrainians push in as far as they can, dig in as deep as they can, and “force” the ruzzians to use the same tactics they are using in Ukraine, (bouncing the rubble and leaving an empty wasteland behind” while the Ukrainians retreat in good order, line by line, defense by defense.

    ruZZian “Z” bloggers are reporting that RASF forces can’t operate because of jammers, drones and Ukrainian mobile Air Defense.

  7. 7.

    Nukular Biskits

    Quick drive by, Adam.  Been a little busy.

    Still pissed off about US refusal to allow the use of ATACMS to destroy Russian aircraft on Russian soil.

    Anyway, as always, informative and educational.

    Thanks!

    v/r

  8. 8.

    Adam L Silverman

    @lore: I have no idea. Unless Ukraine has managed to pull of the most effect military deception operation (MILDEC) in history and is hiding hundreds of thousands of troops that no one has been able to track, they don’t have the capability to hold anything outside their borders.

    It is possible the Ukrainians are trying to teach the Biden administration an object lesson: that it doesn’t matter what Putin says his redlines are for escalating to the tactical use of nuclear weapons in a conventional dispute, he won’t. Which all the readers here know, even if the Biden administration doesn’t, because I’ve been telling you all this for almost a decade.

    There’s some strategic objective here that is not yet clear. I’m looking forward to finding out what it is once the Ukrainians decide to show/tell us.

  11. 11.

    sanjeevs

    I can’t find the link but Budanov made a speech a few days ago where he said that Prigozhin’s putsch had been planned out for months, that Prigozhin was set to take Moscow, but he stopped when Lukashenko talked to him and persuaded him that even if he took Moscow, Russia would be split between the new and old regimes.

    Interesting timing.

  12. 12.

    Bupalos

    I think a Kursk operation is brilliant politically. You could already see this with actions in Belgorad, It makes explicit to the population in outlying regions (90% o Russia) that however much interest they think they have in Moscow, the Kremlin in Moscow really has no- absolutely no – interest in them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this operation just kind of run around across the border and make that point, that these lines on the map that you’re dying for are close to meaningless to the Kremlin, they do not consider themselves to have any of the traditional security responsibilities of national governance.

    This has some shades of the prigozhin rebellion to it. Just pointing up the hollowness of this brittle regime.

  14. 14.

    Bupalos

    @Adam L Silverman: I think it’s almost too simple to see. And there is no distinction to be made here between the “strategic” and the political.

    Ukraine knows and is exposing something about Russia that everyone else is too clever and way too serious to see. One thing to think about here, as Ukraine crosses into Russia and  blatantly seizes land that is internationally recognized as belonging to the Russian Federation…

    why isn’t Putin responding with nukes to the most egregious kind of incursion on Russian security possible?

    I mean, it’s a ridiculous question, but it’s really an order higher than the kind of escalation Biden has so assiduously avoided due to nuclear blackmail. I think this is literally Ukraine saying “SEE??!!! See what bullshit this is??!”

  15. 15.

    Eolirin

    @Adam L Silverman: I wonder if…

    I’m willing to bet this isn’t going to happen, but if the prohibitions on using western weapons inside Russian borders got lifted quietly in the background, would this situation give them an opportunity to cause massive Russian losses by pulling those local defenses into a trap?

  16. 16.

    Yutsano

    I wonder if Uncle Vladdie isn’t pulling the nuclear trigger because he can’t. Obviously I have zero evidence of this, but Russian corruption being what it is, could it be possible that the proud nuclear arsenal of Mother Russia is in fact a total bluff? There’s an awful lot of circuitry and other valuable materials involved.

  17. 17.

    Bupalos

    @Yutsano: Of course he can’t pull the nuclear trigger. I mean, literally, I think it unlikely a nuclear order would be followed, but also, what can Putin hope to gain by doing so?

    We really need to remember, Putin thought he had to flee Moscow when the Prigohzin mutiny was in motion, and it wasn’t at all clear that sufficient military was going to respond to what was at best an under-equipped 1/2 of 1 division with zero air support driving halfway through Russia to shake him by the ears.

    This regime is incredibly brittle, and it can’t defend 1/15th of the landmass it supposedly controls.

  18. 18.

    Bupalos

    @Eolirin: There is no such prohibition in the area of operations we’re talking about. Ukraine already has authorization in the close cross-border area.

  20. 20.

    Jay

    @Bupalos:

    only in the Dnipro area. Outside of the Dnipro area, Ukraine is still barred from using US supplied long range weapons, and even in the Dnipro area, they are limited to 150km from the border.

  23. 23.

    Gin & Tonic

    Who here is old enough to remember the Boston Globe headline about a Carter speech: “Mush From the Wimp?” For some reason that popped into my head today.

    Today marks 16 years since Russia’s invasion of Georgia. We remember those killed and displaced and call on Russia to withdraw its forces to pre-conflict positions. The U.S. is committed to supporting Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
    — Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) August 7, 2024

  24. 24.

    Traveller

    @Jay: That’s pretty funny and the Wait for It was…very much worth the wait! Thank you, I’d never normally see this.

    And as an aside of my own: After our conversation over Russian soldier suicides and my absolutist rejection of this under virtually any understandable reasons or circumstances…I had to  ask myself, “Am I Lt. Colonel Nicholson in my insistence on soldierly duty, or, am I Colonel Saito??!” from The Bridge on the River Kawi.

    My feeling that I need to reach through my screen and grab these Russian soldiers by their shirt fronts, shake them and tell them to cut this crap out!!…was not necessarily a reasonable one on my part, real as the felling was in me.

    Which circles me back to The Bridge on the River Kwai, and its author, Pierre Boulle who wrote this wonderfully slim volume on military duty, military existence, military dying.  Incidentally, the book is better than the movie, as fine as the movie was, the book  is still better. (I cannot find my volume and so had to repurchase it).

    Lastly, Mr Boulle, a French engineer by training, also wrote, among other book, Planet of the Apes, and he was…an interesting person. Best Wishes, Traveller

  25. 25.

    Jay

    @Traveller:

    As tons of interviews with ruZZian POW’s show, most are there for the money, or the pardon, with the side bonus of looting, robbery, rape, murder and brutal torture, and their families are fine with that.

    Anton Gerashchenko
    @Gerashchenko_en
    Aug 6
    Russian captive Rustam Sagitovich Gareev from the city of Ulyanovsk, 41st Brigade. He signed a contract in Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (almost 3,000 kilometers from Ukraine).

    He told in detail, quite calmly, how many and how the occupiers killed civilians in Russian-occupied Avdiivka and neighboring settlements.

    That’s the whole essence of the so-called “liberators”.

    https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1820831971573973385#m

    As we have seen with the released “ruZZian Opposition hostages”, none of them disavow the genocide against Ukraine, none of them disavow ruZZian genocidal Imperialism, they just don’t like Putin, think they should be in charge, and that The West is being too hard and cruel to ruZZians by having weak assed sanctions on ruZZia and weakly arming Ukraine.

  27. 27.

    Carlo Graziani

    Not sure what to think about the Kursk incursion.

    One thing that is clear is that it is not a hurried improviisation. It must have been months in preparation. Which means that while the Donetsk front was being ground down, and crying out for reinforcements in June and July, a reserve was being deliberately created and held back for the purpose of strategic riposte well before the inevitable seasonal combat pause. That does at least shed a little more light on Syrsky’s inclinations and abilities as a planner, whatever his other defects as a commander.

    As to whether this is a wise gambit: this cannot be known now. Assessments of how the Russians are likely respond militarily to contain and repel the incursion depend on factors such as control of the road and rail net,, of course, but also on the level of political pain that the enterprise causes the regime. Keep in mind that the Kremlin typically prioritizes political goals over goals suggested by military strategy, and that while it might be rational for Russia to ignore a thrust that threatens a collection of shitpot villages in favor of completing its designs in Donetsk, it might also be a political impossibility for Putin to allow this.

    My feeling is that there is a GUR intelligence assessment of the effect of Ukraine being in possession of hundreds of square miles of Russian territory on Russian political thinking that is driving this thing. The very idea of such a subordinate people presuming to claim the smallest part of the Rodina will likely produce a reaction overriding every other Russian priority, in this view, and the response will be characterized by panic and chaos.

    I sincerely hope they are right about that. I have to also admit that I feel relieved that Ukraine reserved to itself some agency in the 2024 campaign. Lets hope it turns out the way it did in 2022.

  28. 28.

    Traveller

    @Jay: At first this gave me pause…the worst of the worst? I understand and while I am ok with seeing dead Russians in a vast array of differing situations…suicide on the battlefield while lying in a mud-water filled ditch remains not one of them.

    This reminds me of the prisoner problem…you are out on a long range recon and, God forbid, you end up with a prisoner….what can you do? Cut them loose and risk them sounding the alarm? Or, take them with you with an almost greater risk of giving away your presence?

    Both options are bad,  but what you absolutely can’t do is kill them. This third option simply does not exist…even for the worst of the worst. (there are people that  disagree, maybe in a combat situation even violently disagree…but the third option can never be done…imo). Best Wishes, Traveller

  29. 29.

    Jay

    @Traveller:

    suicide on the battlefield while lying in a mud-water filled ditch remains not one of them

    I am fine with that.

    Saw one, where a ruZZian had a recon drone above him, (not an FPV drone or a drone bomber), so emptied half a clip from his AK into his brain pan.

    I am fine with that.

    He could have just tossed his AK aside, raised his hands and the Ukrainians would have come and got him.

    All ruZZians are propagandized that the Ukrainians are who they are. Hacking up a Ukrainian prisoner while they are still alive, then arranging the hacked off arms and legs into a swastika, and proudly posing with it.

    Raping at will.

    Looting at will.

    Killing civilians both at will, and as part of “the Plan”.

    Mass torture.

    Genocide.

    And 140 million ruZZians support this.

    In proper warfare doctrine, you take a prisoner, they are your charge. Their health and safety is on you. There are many ways for a “recon” team to take a prisoner back, and often that is the goal of a recon team, obtain “human intel” via prisoners.

    The “grey” area is in clearing a combat zone. There are some wounded who will never make it back, even if you can take them back, and will never make it back, when their own forces arrive.

    So, what do you do?

    Leave them to die slowly in pain and misery, or give them a quick death?

    It’s a tough call.

    I really, really wish that suicides in the ruZZian military would greatly exceed the “normal” peacetime statistics of 35%.

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