Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing great. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, it’s been a long week, I’m fried, so I’m go going to try to keep this short.
As I started tonight’s update – 7:35 PM EDT/2:35 AM local time in Ukraine – all of eastern and central Ukraine, minus Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts, are under air raid alerts. An air raid alert is now also up for Kyiv Oblast as of 8:10 PM EDT/3:10 AM local in Ukraine.
I am confused. Why do they all assume Ukraine is going to occupy Russia? Couldn’t this be a march to the sea situation? Seems like that could damage Putin regime and Russian invasion forces too. At least to this ignorant layman.
I have no idea. Unless Ukraine has managed to pull of the most effect military deception operation (MILDEC) in history and is hiding hundreds of thousands of troops that no one has been able to track, they don’t have the capability to hold anything outside their borders.
It is possible the Ukrainians are trying to teach the Biden administration an object lesson: that it doesn’t matter what Putin says his redlines are for escalating to the tactical use of nuclear weapons in a conventional dispute, he won’t. Which all the readers here know, even if the Biden administration doesn’t, because I’ve been telling you all this for almost a decade.
There’s some strategic objective here that is not yet clear. I’m looking forward to finding out what it is once the Ukrainians decide to show/tell us.
I think we can rule out the MILDEC. The more I think about it, the more I think the second answer – that the Ukrainians are trying to demonstrate to the Biden administration, as well everyone else, that the emperor – Putin – has no clothes. That no matter what red lines he declares, no matter what he says he’ll do if they’re breached, such as tactically using nukes during a conventional war, these are just agitprop and hollow threats in order to establish reflexive control over the leaders of his adversaries in order to give himself a preemptive veto in their decision-making process. I also think they have studied Prigozhin’s aborted revolt from a little over a year ago, how Putin personally responded, and how Russia’s military, security services, and law enforcement were unable to do anything to actually stop his Wagner mercenaries. I think they have a very, very, very good understanding of what Russia is an is not able to do to actually defend itself within its own borders and is exploiting those weaknesses.
New: Ukrainian forces are pushing further into the Kursk region of Russia, in a cross-border incursion that surprised even some U.S. officials, multiple officials tell me. The intention: to disrupt Russian forces and divert them from the eastern front. https://t.co/tuyHwIO8cg
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) August 8, 2024
Ukrainian forces are pushing further into the Kursk region of Russia, in a cross-border incursion that surprised even American officials, multiple US and Ukrainian officials tell CNN.
Ukrainian forces are comprised of a mix of Ukrainian regular and special operations units, unlike previous Ukrainian operations inside Russia that often involved undercover units and local sympathizers.
The intention, say US and Ukrainian officials, is multifaceted, in part to disrupt and demoralize Russian forces and in part to divert Russian forces away from other parts of the eastern front. US officials do not believe Ukraine intends to hold Russian territory for the long-term.
Ukraine has not officially confirmed its forces conducted a ground operation inside Russia. Neither the Ukrainian military nor the government in Kyiv has publicly commented on the operation.
Russia accused Ukrainian troops of crossing the border into its Kursk region on Tuesday, claiming that Ukrainian forces launched a “massive attack” and attempted to break through the Russian defenses.
The extent of the attack, including whether Ukrainian troops took over any settlements or caused damage to any strategic targets, remains unclear.
An incursion into Russia could be an attempt by Kyiv to divert Russian resources elsewhere. Given the spate of more negative developments from the frontline, the news of a successful incursion help Kyiv boost the morale of its troops and civilian population.
It could also be a message to Russia’s civilian population – a demonstration that Moscow’s war on Ukraine makes Russia vulnerable to attacks.
Chair of the Bundestag Defence Committee wishes Ukraine success in Kursk 👊🏻 https://t.co/Klu5qhyKg3
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 8, 2024
Here’s the machine translation from the German:
We can only wish the Ukrainian defenders every success, also at #Kursk . The more successful they are, the sooner people will understand at #Kreml that there is nothing to be gained at #Ukraine . This and only this can lead to a change of mind on the part of the aggressor.
Now we watch and wait and see what develops.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Russia Brought the War to Our Land, and It Should Feel What It Has Done – Address by the President
8 August 2024 – 19:13
I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, three reports have already been made by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi – productive reports, exactly the kind our country needs now.
I am grateful to each warrior, each soldier and commander who ensures the defense of our Ukrainian positions and the fulfillment of our defensive tasks. Ukrainians know how to achieve their goals. And achieving the goals at war was not our choice. Russia brought the war to our land, and it should feel what it has done. We strive to achieve our goals as soon as possible in peacetime – under just peace conditions. And it will happen.
Today, there was also a report by Minister of Defense Umerov on the supply of weapons and equipment to our army. We are working to ensure that the supplies are consistently delivered on time. Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Maliuk also reported today – on our operations and on the sensitive work of the Security Service, which protects Ukrainians – protects them from Russian sabotage and assassination attempts inside our country.
Today, I also thank the entire development team of our new digital state service, Army+. We have presented this application. Now it is important that all our commanders in the Defense Forces start using it – obtain the necessary IDs and learn all the technical details. And the “army of paperwork” should be left in the past. We will continue to develop our Diia by adding services to it, and soon our Mriia – the third element of the state digital infrastructure – will start working – for children and parents, for teachers and schools. Will start working truly for the future of Ukraine. Ukrainians should not waste their time with outdated and useless bureaucracy. The world sees what Ukrainians can spend their time on – with results for Ukraine. We are holding our ground and providing Ukraine with new opportunities.
And one more thing.
I held a long meeting with our international experts: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, the military, the Defense Intelligence, the Office. On our cooperation with NATO – with the Alliance in general and with our neighbors in the region who are NATO members in particular. It is obvious that together we can bring more security and stability to our region and to all of Europe. And we need to translate that obviousness into practical steps, into ways in which we can bring more real security to each other through cooperation. Today we discussed our joint capabilities to defend against Russian missile and drone strikes – we are working on their implementation. I thank everyone who is helping!
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy also spoke at the presentation of the Army+ app. Video followed by English transcript.
Today We Are Taking a Step Toward Modernity and Efficiency – Speech by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Presentation of the Army+ Application
8 August 2024 – 14:55
Glory to Ukraine!
Dear Ukrainians! Dear attendees!
And now, first of all, I address our Ukrainian warriors: our soldiers, sergeants, officers and generals.
Everyone sees that the Ukrainian army can surprise. And it can achieve results.
This is shown on the battlefield, where our warriors have not only withstood the overwhelming force of the occupiers but are destroying it in a way that is necessary to defend Ukraine – our state and independence.
This is due to the courage of our people and the absolutely natural desire of Ukrainians to find the best course of action.
Ukrainians are constantly learning new things in this war. New models of weapons – and we can be proud of our results in the use of new weaponry. A lot has been accomplished in a short time, especially things that other states are either pursuing or have been pursuing for decades.
Our warriors are also mastering new methods of warfare – in particular, everything related to the use of drones. The dominance of Ukrainians in this field is obvious.
And I thank everyone in our army, in our state, and all volunteers who promote and implement the necessary changes.
I thank every commander who welcomes the changes and welcomes them really positively.
The Ukrainian Army always succeeds when it is able to discard the outdated, to act out of the box, and to execute with absolute accuracy what was intended for our, Ukrainian, results.
This is also the way our army should be managed.
Today, we are taking such a step – a step towards modernity, a step towards efficiency.
Something that strengthens our entire army because it strengthens each commander and, eventually, each warrior of our army.
As of today, the Army+ application will be operational. It will start with basic functions. And we will fill it with new ones.
In particular, electronic reports will be available immediately. When, in a few minutes and clicks, you can do what now takes at least hours or days.
There will also be an army ID. And there will be surveys, to see the real situation with the provision of our units.
And this is only the first release of Army+.
In the future, just as we have been adding new features to Diia, we will add new options to Army+.
The purpose of this application is to free the Ukrainian army from useless paperwork. So that commanders and soldiers do not waste their time on outdated and unnecessary bureaucracy and filling in papers. We are starting with reports: first, there will be electronic reports, and then we will continue with clearance forms and all other documents.
However, in the next phases of Army+ development, the application will also include other features that will help our warriors meet all of these social and communication needs while serving.
In particular, the application will include the necessary courses and training programs. Mastering new things is a priority for us.
Also, thanks to our state digital services, Ukrainians will be able to receive all social services provided by the state to warriors and citizens without bureaucracy. Transportation – they will be able to buy tickets or order other necessary services. Medicine and medical documents – all this should and will be convenient. Banking and crediting – the state is creating and will increase the package of financial opportunities for our Ukrainian warriors.
And in particular, Army+ will provide reliable communication between the warriors – secure chats.
Today, government officials and representatives of the Ministry of Defense will outline all the details.
In general, Army+ should become the second element of our digital state.
First, we launched Diia. And it is already used by more than 20 million Ukrainians. This is our super application. 18 digital documents and more than 40 services are in the application and over a hundred more services are available today on the portal.
Next is Army+. The second element. And it will also be full of services.
And there will be a third one, which we will present soon, in September. Our Mriia – an application for children, parents, teachers.
Diia is about the functioning of our state. Army+ is about our defense because it is about our warriors. And Mriia is about Ukrainian children, our future. The future that we will surely protect and secure.
I want to thank everyone who implements all these ideas, initiatives, and everyone who helps us. I thank everyone who develops digital services for our state – this all is for our people. I thank everyone who implements the changes Ukraine needs so much.
And of course, all our people must always be grateful to the Ukrainians, our true heroes of different times, who fought for our state, our independence and gave up the most precious thing – their lives.
I ask everyone to honor the memory of the fallen Ukrainian heroes with a minute of silence.
Thank you.
Now I address all the commanders of our Ukrainian army and all our Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine: I really expect you to help implement all these changes in a powerful way. We cannot do it without you.
We need Ukraine to lead in everything – in the way Ukrainians fight, in the way Ukrainians work, and in the way, Ukrainians manage their state and manage their army.
Eventually, our partners should learn from us modern solutions and efficiency, the ability of Ukrainians to achieve results.
I want to thank everyone again for this day. I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine, who fights, who works for the sake of our state, for the sake of our people.
Glory to Ukraine!
I’m not sure if you can really call yourself an army if you don’t have to spend several hours every day fighting with outdated versions of Microsoft Office programs making powerpoints, spreadsheets, and trying to get your email to actually work.
Tatarigami has published an assessment of the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk Oblast at EuroMaidan Press:
As several days of the Kursk incursion have passed, we can already observe some positive developments and achievements. That being said, I still have reservations and serious concerns about some fundamental problems. Here’s my brief summary on the topic:https://t.co/Z1rwsrABFs
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 8, 2024
To say that this incursion into the Kursk Oblast caught many, including the Russian command, by surprise is an understatement. We can confidently assert that the operational planning was executed skillfully, as the enemy not only failed to assemble a properly sized rapid response force but also misread the intent of the Ukrainian maneuver despite having extensive ISR capabilities over the frontlines and even deep into Ukrainian territory.
This bold incursion into Kursk Oblast highlights the inconsistency of concerns over escalation. Ukraine has been repeatedly prohibited from using ATACMS and similar systems deep within Russian territory due to fears of escalation. Yet now, with Russia’s territorial integrity under direct threat, we do not see nuclear missiles flying toward Berlin, Brussels, Washington, or any other Western city.
The operation also underscores Russia’s continued inability to swiftly respond to battlefield developments—a weakness evident during the Kharkiv counter-offensive in 2022, when Russia struggled to respond coherently to emerging challenges. This failure is unsurprising, as it stems from the over-centralization of control and the concentration of decision-making power in a few nodes, making any quick response nearly impossible.
Without a doubt, this incursion has sparked hope and optimism, not only within Ukraine but also in the West, which had begun to accept the idea of Ukraine slowly losing territory and war altogether.
It remains an indisputable fact that the capture of a significant number of prisoners of war, some of whom appear to be conscripted soldiers, is a major humanitarian victory for Ukraine. Countless Ukrainian families have been waiting for their loved ones to return from captivity since 2022.
In this context, conscript soldiers hold particular value, as Russian society is generally more sensitive to the plight of conscripts than to that of contract soldiers. This sensitivity is underscored by Putin’s promise in the spring of 2022 to address the issue of conscripts being used in combat situations.
That being said, amid the optimism and positivity, it’s important to remain critical and assess the situation soberly. As the summer 2023 offensive demonstrated, euphoria can quickly turn into a hangover.
While Ukrainian forces are encountering seemingly weak resistance as they advance, their logistical lines are inevitably lengthening. To address this, Ukraine will need to widen the incursion, which could slow the pace of its advance due to limited resources and available brigades.
Overextension poses risks beyond logistics – it also complicates the ability to provide adequate air defense coverage for advancing troops.
As Russia eventually assembles a large enough force to counter Ukrainian advances, the Ukrainian command will face a tough dilemma: to halt and dig in or to retreat back to Ukraine.
In the first scenario, it’s unclear how extended frontlines and unprepared positions with stretched logistics would be more favorable than the more established positions in Donbas. If Ukrainian troops choose to withdraw, it raises the question of whether the operation was worth the effort, especially given the need to redeploy elements from several brigades in Donbas for this incursion.
Meanwhile, in Donbas, Russian forces continue to advance toward Pokrovsk and have made progress in the Toretsk area over the past week.
As Ukrainian forces slowly retreat in the Pokrovsk direction, there are no stabilization reserves currently available on site.
So far, there is no evidence that Russia is moving its main units from Donetsk Oblast to Kursk, casting doubt on the theory that this incursion could relieve pressure on Donetsk. That being said, it may be too early to draw conclusions, as such movements could occur in the future.
However, as of today, there is no public information or indication that Russia has shifted its main forces or decreased pressure in the Pokrovsk direction.
More at the link including a lot of maps.
Unlike past cross-border raids conducted by pro-Ukrainian Russian and international units, regular forces from at least four brigades have appeared in verified videos taking part in the operation. This suggests the operation was planned well in advance. https://t.co/cHwm4nhilU
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 8, 2024
From The Financial Times:
Ukraine has captured roughly 350 sq km in Russia’s Kursk region, with its forces fighting to expand and solidify their presence on the third day of Kyiv’s most audacious counteroffensive of the war.
The Russian defence ministry said battles raged on Thursday as its troops and special forces fought off the largest Ukrainian incursion since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
Videos reviewed and verified by the Financial Times and western analysts showed Russian strikes on columns of Ukrainian armoured vehicles and significant damage to cities and towns. Moscow’s jets were seen flying over the areas and dozens of Russian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
The Russian ministry claimed that roughly 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers had taken part in the operation and that Kyiv had lost 600 military personnel and 82 armoured vehicles — figures that could not be independently verified.
“Air strikes are being carried out on advancing reserves of the armed forces of Ukraine on the territory of the Sumy region,” Russia’s defence ministry added, referring to strikes on the Ukrainian region across the border from where the operation was launched.
Ukraine’s surprise operation began at dawn on Tuesday and has since focused on the small Russian town of Sudzha and its surroundings, including a gas transit station on one of the last pipelines still supplying Russian gas to central Europe.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank that tracks the war, said Ukrainian forces had captured 11 settlements, including Nikolaevo-Darino, Darino, and Sverdlikovo, and were operating within Lyubimovka. The area amounts to about 350 square kilometres, according to FT calculations.
It said geolocated footage showed Ukrainian armoured vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenovo highway about 10 kilometres from the international border.
Russian bloggers close to the military wrote on Telegram that Ukrainian forces were trying to advance along the 38K-030. One pro-Kremlin military blogger said the Ukrainians had advanced north-west and south-east along the highway and were fighting around Korenovo and Sudzha.
“Sudzha is basically lost for us. And this is an important logistics hub,” the pro-Moscow Ukrainian blogger Yuriy Podolyaka who now resides in Russia wrote on Telegram.
A Ukrainian drone attack struck the vehicle of prominent pro-Kremlin reporters, severely injuring Yevgeny Poddudny, a journalist awarded by Putin for his war coverage.
Kyiv has not officially commented on the operation. Its western allies signalled they were not consulted, but said Ukraine had autonomy in planning its strikes.
Unlike past cross-border raids conducted by pro-Ukrainian Russian and international units, regular forces from at least four brigades have appeared in verified videos taking part in the operation. This suggests the operation was planned well in advance, analysts say.
Ukraine has not only largely depended on western military support — particularly that from the US — in its fight against Russia’s invasion forces. It relies heavily on Washington for intelligence to help plan and conduct its operations, according to Ukrainian officials.
But Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for the US Department of State, said on Wednesday that it had no earlier knowledge of the offensive and would request more details from Kyiv.
“We are providing them with the equipment; we provide them with advice. But when it comes to the day-by-day tactic that they carry out . . . sometimes we’re in communication about it, sometimes we’re not. It’s appropriate for them to make those decisions,” he added.
US Stryker and German Marder fighting vehicles have been confirmed on Russian territory during the battle, according to videos reviewed and verified by the FT. Miller said Ukraine was within its right to use western kit in its operations.
A spokesperson for Germany’s defence ministry did not confirm or deny Marders were used in the Kursk incursion, saying only that it was the “German government’s declared objective to support Ukraine in its fight against the Russian aggressor”.
The European Commission on Thursday said Ukraine had a “right to defend itself” and that “includes hitting the enemy on its territory”.
But Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to the Zelenskyy, on Thursday said “the root cause of any escalation, shelling, military actions, forced evacuations, and destruction of normal life forms, including within [Russia’s] own territories like Kursk and Belgorod regions, is solely Russia’s unequivocal aggression”.
Kyiv’s objectives remain opaque, although one appears to be to force Russia to divert troops from its own offensive in eastern Ukraine. The Russian defence ministry on Wednesday said it was sending reinforcements to Kursk.
Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army major general, wrote in an assessment on Thursday that the attack “might be an attempt to slow or kill Russian momentum in its offensives which have lasted for the duration of 2024”.
More at the link including maps.
Such operations as in Kursk region will have a positive impact on possible negotiations with Russia – Mykhailo Podoliak, advisor to the head of the Presidential office.
Russia is ready to make some compromises only when the war does not go according to its plan, he said. pic.twitter.com/P1XGPCxaVk— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 8, 2024
Fire after a reported missile strikes in Rylsk area, Kursk region. pic.twitter.com/n7DNir9Rl9
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 8, 2024
If Ukraine’s offensive operation in the Kursk region is not persuading the West that it needs finally to drop its obsession with “escalation management” and get rid of its self-defeating, paralyzing fear of Putin and his trash-talk threats — I don’t know what else will.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 8, 2024
Also, there are no mysterious “anonymous sources” leaks in press when anonymous sources aren’t informed. Interesting
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 8, 2024
I mean, this is history in the making.
Map by @AndrewPerpetua pic.twitter.com/Lv36mVx4KH
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 8, 2024
Bakhmut:
The Bakhmut direction: Ukrainian border guards are making the occupiers regret ever coming to our land.
📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/A3UpJ5QXYX
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 8, 2024
Pokrovsk:
Meanwhile, an archive video by the 47th Mechanized.
M1 Abrams in action.
The situation in the Pokrovsk sector remains extremely difficult. pic.twitter.com/bxOU22uWvz
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 8, 2024
Voronezh:
Videos of the aftermath of the attack on a Russian ammunition depot in Voronezh region have appeared. Along with scattered artillery shells objects similar to containers of Russian S-300 air defense missiles are also visible. https://t.co/6QeBHcQRbS https://t.co/qu3AdSZ7qk pic.twitter.com/pP5rzRgfJC
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 8, 2024
Kharkiv Oblast:
Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS, found and destroyed by drone operators in Kharkiv region. https://t.co/KlHFAFAcET pic.twitter.com/8XmyxEGN2E
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 8, 2024
Second explosion in Kharkiv ‼️
As always, when russia is losing, Kharkiv gets bombed.— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 8, 2024
Sumy Oblast:
Today, a brother and sister were killed as a result of a Russian strike in Sumy region: a young man of 22 and a 6-year-old girl – Sumy Regional Military Administration.
Both were in the yard of the school in the village of Mohrytsia, which was destroyed by a bomb attack.… pic.twitter.com/nUebF9P661
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 8, 2024
Today, a brother and sister were killed as a result of a Russian strike in Sumy region: a young man of 22 and a 6-year-old girl – Sumy Regional Military Administration.
Both were in the yard of the school in the village of Mohrytsia, which was destroyed by a bomb attack.
According to the head of the RMA Volodymyr Artiukh, 56 KAB bombs were dropped at settlements in four border areas of the Sumy region over the past 24 hours.
The mandatory evacuation of 23 settlements of 5 hromadas [municipalities] of Sumy district – Krasnopillia, Mykolaivka, Myropillia, Yunakivka, and Khotin – which fall within the enemy fire zone, continues in the region.
Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:
Warriors from Ukrainian 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade shot down a Russian flag on a school building in New York, Donetsk region.
Later, the Brigade’s scouts brought back a Ukrainian flag over there.
📹: 53rd Brigade pic.twitter.com/b6jmT2BVlr
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 8, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here’s some adjacent material from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Amid the fog of secrecy around Kursk and without a word of official comment, AFU is out here dropping Cat Day pics. Love this comms 😅 pic.twitter.com/fwdfyw5YiB
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 8, 2024
Open thread!
TF79
Doolittle Raid?
Adam L Silverman
@TF79: More like a Dooalot raid.
What?
TF79
Didabunch
Westyny
@Adam L Silverman: Haha, always good to hear about Rosie is doing well. I hope there are more positive surprises in Kursk.
Tony G
Kursk. The little that I know of ww2 history is that Kursk, along with Stalingrad, were the two big battles that led to the victory of the Soviet Union over the Nazi German invaders. I wonder whether Ukraine chose Kursk as a way to embarrass Putin. (Probably not.)
Bill Arnold
Frankly, the old versions are best.
strange visitor (from another planet)
@Tony G: lets hope this salient ends better for ukraine than it did for the wermacht.
Jay
As always, thank you, Adam.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1821458839037710515#m
Bill Arnold
Just from my notes today: re a ransomware attack on Columbus, Ohio: Hackers release reams of stolen Columbus data on dark web (Bill Bush, Columbus Dispatch, last updated Aug 8, 2024), probably Russian (or CIS) criminals[2]:
Rhysida ransomware: The creepy crawling criminal hiding in the dark (May. 9, 2024, Christine Barry)
I’ve bolded the big tell:
[1] Might be a rebrand of Vice Society
[2] Such Russian criminal orgs often do work/favors for the Russian government, as well, e.g. attack selected targets.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1821651249688625643#m
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: If they’re Russians and operating out of Russia or the CIS, they’re working for one of the Russian intelligence services, one of the siloviki, one of the oligarchs, or some combo thereof.
Traveller
I think Gin & Tonic got this correct yesterday. I have not seen anyone else comment on the necessary operational security surrounding this incursion into Russia and this assembly of forcs being kept a secret is fairly amazing.
. Likewise, Gin & Tonic has been correct in his estimation that this is a vast gamble but one advisedly taken. There was and is a need to break free of this attritional warfare forced upon Ukraine by Russia. The game board needed to be shaken up and this incursion into Russia had done exactly that. There seems to have been a trade off of land for strategic advance. Was this a good gamble? We will just have to wait and see, but I must praise the Ukrainian boldness in these regards.
I might add that the arrival of F-16s might be playing a crucial role in at least offering some modicum of air cover for the invading forces. The f-16s ability to fire stand off air-to-air missiles could be a tremendous positive and must give Russian Pilots pause. Traveller
Bupalos
As I said last night, I think this is the main thrust. However it also has a political impact in Russia as well, which is to help Russian “citizens” understand that they aren’t in any way under the protection of the Kremlin and essentially have no relation to the Kremlin whatever.
“Russia” is mostly a fake thing on a map. The folks in the Kremlin !!!might!!!! have the capability to deliver nuclear weapons. Much more likely is that they do not have that capacity, just as they really didn’t have the capacity to stop Prigozhin’s march. Prighozin just didn’t have any plan or particular endgame in mind.
Again, we don’t know if Russia has nuclear capability, and Putin doesn’t know. But moreover the folks in the Kremlin have no objectives that can be attained via the delivery of nuclear weapons. One thing they probably do know is if they actually try to pull the nuclear lever and nothing happens, their regime is over. Which is barely different from what happens if they tried to pull the nuclear lever and it does work.
I think this is an utterly brilliant maneuver on the part of the Ukrainians. I’m kind of in awe, not just of how smart it is… but that their military is so disciplined and motivated that they can pull this off.
Ishiyama
I’m not going to say I know anything, but a tactic of disperse and destroy and evade might take up a lot of effort chasing them and fixing what they break.
wjca
I keep reading that, if this is an attempt to force Russia to shift forces from occupied Ukraine, it will fail. Because Russia can just move other forces from elsewhere in Russia to deal with it. But I’m beginning to wonder whether that is actually the case.
No doubt there are, on paper, lots of Russian military units that could be used. But how many of them are even close to their nominal manpower levels? How many have the equipment that they would need? (If Russia is reduced to refurbishing tanks in storage to send to units in Occupied Ukraine, what are the chances that units still in Russia have their nominal numbers?)
I suppose it comes down to wondering just how close Putin has gotten to all in on Ukraine. It seems like, if he had more strength available, he would be using it. Certainly it seems like having some serious military force in place along the border would be a minimum. Especially given that they are constantly firing across that border. I mean, it’s not like Russia is likely to need tank corps, for example, on any of its other borders. So why keep any there? Assuming they exist, of course — it they are merely shells, that’s a different story.
No doubt I am missing something obvious here. But I’m not sure what.
wu ming
in addition to all the other things people have mentioned, i’m curious whether this raid is also intended to draw russian attention away from another as of yet unseen military operation, and if so, what might that be?
Fair Economist
The Sudza gas transit station would be a worthwhile goal. The Russian attack method is carpet bombing, which would likely destroy the transit station and/or the pipeline, which will cost Russia several billion dollars by ending the transit of gas early (Ukraine was planning to not renew the contract next year.)
Or the Russians can *not* carpet bomb, which means they’ll have a hard time getting the area back.
Jay
@wjca:
There are effectively 3 ruZZian militaries.
There is a Professional Military, (lifer’s) which is mostly a Officer/Technologist Class that are graduates of ruZZian Military Academies. They can’t be “sent” to the SMO, they have to volenteer and sign contracts. Few take that option because the grifting opportunities and promotion opportunities are better in ruZZia than the SMO. Also, a better chance of living long enough to collect a pension.
There is a “conscript army”, draftees on a 2 year term They are trained and managed by the “Professional Army”. They also can’t be sent to the SMO with out volenteering and signing a contract.
Then there is the “Contract Army”, people who signed a contract to fight in the SMO for money and/or a get out jail free card. They are commanded by volenteer Officers of the ruZZian Army, and “Commanders” from the DPR and LPR “militias”, (Gangsters).
wjca
But they could, presumably, be stationed inside Russia (i.e. not involved in the SMO, since they aren’t in areas that are occupied Ukraine**). Just like they were guarding any other border. Except they, and their equipment, would be in position to be useful should Russia be invaded. Which, arguably, it has. And yet, apparently, they were not.
P.S. I don’t discount the possibility that all we are seeing is the result of yet another Russian military screwup. It seems a bit extreme for that; after all, I’m nothing like a military strategy expert, but even *I* would have thought to put forces there. If I had them.
** But perhaps the SMO is defined to include even areas along the Russia-Ukraine border which Russia is not currently invading across. Still, how far from the border would they have to be to be outside the SMO?
Jay
@wjca:
Unlike most Militaries, the ruZZian Military has no NCO corps. 2nd year conscripts fill out their NCO class. Then you have Dedovshchina, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina.
The Conscript Army is generally regarded as useless, unless you need a latrine dug.
Word is, is that the Border Guards and Conscripts were backed up by Kadarovites, who were first to run away, followed by the conscripts Officers.
Putin defined the SMO as limited to the claimed territories of Ukraine and Ukraine itself.
While there is a ton of logistical and other support* for the SMO taking place on the ruZZian side of the border, on paper at least, crossing the border requires a signed contract.
*air, arty, etc.
As an eg. Finland reports that ruZZia stripped out 80% of their forces stationed on the border with Finland and Occupied Karalia last year.
Roughly half of the ruZZian Armed Forces are either in the SMO, or deployed inside ruZzia to support the SMO.
Traveller
I want to see the Ukrainian forces in Kursk itself….providing they are not out running their logistical tail. It doesn’t seem that far to Kursk to me but the primary objective, the N/S highway and rail line seem to be effectively cut.
The problem actually being in Kursk is that you’d have a much larger restive population to…either pacify or control. On the other Hand, Google Maps shows that Kursk Airport is 133km from Sudzha…1hr 43 min drive. (with some traffic closures being shown…lol)
This is just a fantasy run for me, not a serious proposition…and yet, there it sits. Traveller
wjca
@Jay:
If I’m understanding you correctly, what’s available is basically the officers and technologists of the “Professional Army.” Since the conscripts are useless. Plus whatever contractors are not busy in Ukraine.
Which rather sounds like the situation I was envisioning. Unless there are a significant number of the Technologists who drive tanks.
EDT Why does it seem like, exclusive of the contractors, were talking about a Potemkin Army here?
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
@wjca:
It is a Potemkin Army, other than some of the “Specialist” Professional Army, and keep in mind that roughly half of the “Contract Army’s” role is to be meat cubes.
They for the most part, have only ever had “mass”.
The ruZZian Navy has lost a naval war for the Black Sea against a country with no Navy, and are losing the war for the Sea of Azov.
wjca
@Jay: I suppose it’s as well for them that an Air Force requires a relatively small number of combatants (typically officers), plus technologists for maintenance, etc.
Jay
@wjca:
Ukraine has lost 376* aircraft of all types, to ruZZia’s 311, despite ruZZia having vastly more aircraft, better aircraft, longer range weapons and better AA defences, (for most of the war).
*from the Invasion of Crimea, the War in Donbass and the re-Invasion of 2022, many of Ukraine’s losses were either seized or destroyed on the ground in the first days. If you take those aircraft out of the totals, Ukraine and ruZZia are about on par for losses. Despite all their massive advantages on paper, ruZZia has never achieved air superiority over Ukraine.
With Ukraine now having a handful of F-16’s, going airborne must be extra butt clenching for ruZZian pilots.
Like “Tiger Fever” in WWII, where every German Tank was a Tiger to the infantry, there will be an F-16 fever amongst ruZZian pilots.
Which is funny, because UA FPV drones have started taking down ruZZian attack helo’s.
Traveller
@Jay: Yes, that was an amazing shot…the image of the drone flying into the tail rudder of the helicopter…just fantastic work by the drone controller. Kudos to him/her!
I just saw a very brief clip of a drone hitting a moving train….now this, stopping rail traffic, this would be vital. Again, impressive flying by whoever had the controls of the drone.
Traveller
@Jay: Let me circle back here for a moment…the interviews with Russians today and yesterday are…well, they make me sigh. They strongly confirm you view, (and mine) that the general Russian population strongly supports the invasion of Ukraine.
At the beginning of the war there were a number of brave Russians protesting in Red Square and elsewhere against this war…they are all gone now, fled, or silenced, or in jail.
Carlo Graziani
@Traveller: The conquest of Kursk itself is not likely an achievable or even a desirable objective. However, if ISW’s reporting is correct, there’s a column of Ukrainian forces currently about 30 km from Kurchatov, the site of the Kursk nuclear reactor.
That is an objective that seems both desirable and, with speed, achievable. It would create an interesting situation if power lines from that reactor to regional distribution were cut, and if the Ukrainians could set up defensible positions there. Think Zaporizhzhia, and a possible exchange.
Carlo Graziani
Color me very skeptical that this is any more than at best a secondary driver for this offensive. It has obviously been in preparation for months, and the husbanding of reserves to carry it out has endangerd, and even come close to compromising, the position on the Donetsk front. Whatever one may think of Syrsky, I don’t think this kind of planning, preparation, and sacrifice could possibly have been carried out for the principal purpose of sending a political message to an ally. They are trying to accomplish some concrete strategic/operational goal. We just don’t see what it is yet.
Traveller
@Carlo Graziani:
@Carlo Graziani:
Of course you are correct that the nuclear plant would be a valuable objective and achievable.
In the alternative, I’ve seen some war planning maps where this swift reaction force simply wheels Right and in a Sherman March to the Sea kind of maneuver cuts all the supply lines to the Russian forces in the Donbas.
This is an outrageous thought…but the Ukrainian forces, and maybe their General Staff (even though it keeps changing), continues to surprise everyone.
There maybe an objective to the North we are unaware of…maybe all Ukrainian AD forces, anything that will shoot, has been brought forward and is waiting for a general strike by the Russian AF but is actually an ambush trap. Who knows? The possibilities are almost limitless, but your idea is probably the most practical and at the ready now.
Here lastly, is the other thing that Gin & Tonic emphasized…there has been a lot of planning that went into this operation…I don’t know what the General Staff is thinking…I’d be as happy for a retreat as anything…I just want all of this to be some kind of real success. Best Wishes, Nice to See Your Voice on this, Traveller
Ishiyama
In that case, could they drive towards Volgograd, then turn back and take Rostov-on-Don?
wjca
The logistics seem rather dicey. Sherman, after all, could graze his horses along the way. Tanks have different requirements. That said, those Russian supply lines likely include fuel for Russian equipment in the Donbas, that might be appropriated. But would it be enough?
Assuming, for the sake of discussion, that such a march to the sea is feasible, then what? The Ukranians will want to get those guys home again. Presumably they could come back thru Donbas and the rear areas of the Russian forces. But again, logistics issues rear their head. Ammunition also becomes problematic by then.
Not saying it’s impossible. I’d love to see it. But I’d hate to see them get half or three-quarters of the way, and then run out of fuel or ammo.
sstarr
The Germans wishing Ukraine “good luck in Kursk” is kind of wild. It’s also kind of wild to imagine this major operation with up to 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers versus the Second World War battle that featured 800,000 Germans versus 1,400,000 Soviets. It’s amazing how few soldiers are fighting this modern war compared to the numbers fighting 80 years ago.