Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Giving up is unforgivable.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Donald Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

“In this country American means white. everybody else has to hyphenate.”

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Roe is not about choice. It is about freedom.

So many bastards, so little time.

If rights aren’t universal, they are privilege, not rights.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 898: Even More on the Kursk Offensive

War for Ukraine Day 898: Even More on the Kursk Offensive

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A quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing excellently. She has next week off and then goes back a week from Monday for the fourth and final treatment of round three. Then two more weeks off and she starts round four. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

The Russians attacked another Ukrainian supermarket today. This time in Konstiatinivka.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Are Working to Further Limit Russia’s Ability to Wage This War – Address by the President

9 August 2024 – 18:55

Dear Ukrainians!

The rescue operation in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, is still underway after a direct Russian strike on a supermarket. Dozens of other buildings: a post office, shops and houses, were also damaged. At the moment, we know of more than 40 injured people – all of them are receiving the necessary assistance. Unfortunately, 14 people were killed. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Russia always knows where it is hitting with its missiles, and this is a deliberate and targeted Russian terror. Another war crime for which the occupier will be held accountable. They will be accountable to the court and to history, and they are already accountable to the strength of our warriors. All those Ukrainians who are restoring justice, destroying the occupier and defending our positions. They are defending them just as it is necessary to preserve Ukrainian independence and achieve our goals. And the most important of them – just peace for all our people as soon as possible, real security for all our regions and communities. And it is achievable only if Ukraine takes the initiative in the war, if our unity with the world is preserved, and if we are all here, in Ukraine, and we all work for our country, for our mutual interests, for our security. I am grateful to all those who perform such tasks for Ukraine. Those who fight for the sake of Ukraine with true resilience and courage. I am proud of all our combat brigades! I also want to express my special gratitude to our warriors and units who are replenishing the “exchange fund” – by taking the occupiers as captives and thus helping to free our people from Russian captivity. This is extremely important and has been particularly effective over the past three days. We must return freedom to all our people who remain in Russian captivity.

I held a meeting of the Staff today. There was a detailed report by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. Regarding our defense on the front – all directions. Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kharkiv – all of them. An analysis of our active actions was also presented. In addition, today there were reports from the Foreign Intelligence Service and the Defense Intelligence on the prospects for the near future, the opportunities and challenges that the terrorist state has. We are working to further limit Russia’s ability to wage this war. In particular, there was a report on our long-range drones. The head of the Security Service of Ukraine Maliuk reported on their use. Thank you, guys, thank you for your precision! And we are developing this capability. This is already our real strategic branch of the defense industry – a branch that will always work for Ukraine. The Commander of the Air Force also reported at the meeting on the improvement of our air defense. Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko reported on the preparation of our schools for the new school year in terms of security. We help regional authorities, local authorities – communities so that children can go to school offline in all communities where it is possible.

And one more thing.

I am grateful to all our warriors who have already installed Army+. 40,000 downloads in the first 24 hours. The average time of use also shows a good result. This application should be extended to all our Ukrainian Defense Forces – all commanders, all soldiers. It is really useful to eliminate paperwork and all unnecessary bureaucracy. Ukraine must be modern at all levels.

Glory to Ukraine!

Meeting of the Staff

First, we received a report from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on the situation across all key directions: the South, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, as well as the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions. The report also covered our defensive actions in the directions from which Russia launched attacks on Ukrainian territory.

A report by Commander of the Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk. The Staff approved a plan for further actions on strengthening our air defense system to protect people, critical infrastructure and military facilities. Additionally, Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko reported on the comprehensive protection of schools in cooperation with local authorities and communities on all security aspects in preparation for the school year.

There was also a report from the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleh Ivashchenko, on Russia’s new terrorist plans. We see all of this and will be ready. Finally, an important report was delivered by the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasyl Maliuk, on their special long-range operations. Very productive actions.

The cost:

“Nastia is nowhere to be seen… I need Nastia!” – relatives keep waiting for news on their loved ones after the Russian strike on a supermarket in Kostiantynivka. Pain and despair grow as the death toll of the Russian strike continues to rise.

12 people confirmed dead, 44 more injured – head of Donbas police.

People were buying groceries, getting the post or running other errands when Russian missile hit.

📹: Radio Svoboda

The reason:

Meet Oleksandr, call sign Pintset (Tweezers). In civilian life, he worked as a veterinarian, and today he serves as a medic in the 1st Battalion of the Rubizh Brigade.
During the early days of the full-scale war, he returned from abroad and joined the defense forces.
“I have my family; I have my country. I must protect what’s mine,” says Oleksandr.

The US:

Today, @DeptofDefense announced a new security assistance package valued at $125 million to meet Ukraine’s most urgent needs.

The capabilities in this package include:

* Stinger missiles;
* Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
* 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
* Multi-mission radars;
* Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles;
* Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
* High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances;
* Small arms ammunition;
* Demolitions equipment and munitions;
* Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure; and
* Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.

We are grateful to our 🇺🇸 partners for their staunch support!
We will win!

Lithuania:

The Kinburn Spit, Russian occupied Mykolaiv Oblast:

Bakhmut:

Kherson Oblast:

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

From Forbes:

A rapid Ukrainian advance starting August 6th has taken Russia – and Western analysts — by surprise , pushing deep into enemy territory and threatening the city of Kursk. The offensive has gained more territory in a few days than the Russians have in months. And while it is difficult to tell exactly what is happening, success seems to have been achieved by mastery of a new style of warfare.

Part 1: Electronic Blitzkrieg

According to Russian military Telegram channel Troika (“Three”), the Ukrainians used tactics previously tested in Kharkiv on a smaller scale. (Credit to Roy for picking this up).

First, they brought down Russia’s screen of aircraft-type reconnaissance drones, effectively blinding commanders to what was happening. This may have been done by new interceptor FPVs linked to air-defence radar.

Secondly, under cover of the temporary observation blackout, short-range jammers were brought forward to the front line. These were programmed with data previously gleaned from electronic warfare reconnaissance.

“They discovered the main frequencies of our border radio communication networks, drone control frequencies, and prepared powerful jammers that crushed our communications,” according to another Russian blogger quoted by WarTranslated.

This was at least partly possible because the area was considered low priority and was not supplied with the latest equipment. In Ukraine, the war of drones versus jammers has been a constant arms race of upgrades as each move to evade jammed frequencies is countered by new jammers. It seems the drones in this sector were not working to the latest standards.

The result was that Russian drones, essential to identify targets and guide artillery, as well FPVs, were not able to function. According to WarTranslated’s source, even the feared Lancet loitering munitions were partly affected.

Drones are a major asset for stopping armored assaults. Recent reports suggest that they account for two-thirds or more of the tanks killed, with videos showing entire armored assaults knocked out one-by-one by successive FPV hits long before they reached enemy positions.

By concentrating enough jamming resources in the Kursk sector, Ukraine neutralized Russia’s drones, allowing their armor to cross open territory without being destroyed.

But how did they tackle Russian troops dug deep into defensive lines built over the course of two years?

Part 2: Drone Blitzkrieg

According to Three, Ukraine filled the skies with its own drones “an incessant barrage of high-precision FPVs, which go in swarms.”

OSINT analyst Roy notes that in recent weeks Ukraine has employed powerful drone bombs to blast openings in the overhead cover or Russian trenches and dugouts. Skilled FPV pilots are able to fly though these openings and clear the trench below.

It may be significant that some videos of the action showe new Ukrainian dive-bomber drones. While quadcopter dive-bombing has been seen before, these look like aircraft-type drones with longer range and greater payload. It is a distinct echo of the original Blitzkrieg concept of dive-bombers in close support of ground troops.

One the trenches are cleared, Three say that new Ukrainian ranger units quickly moved in to occupy and secure the empty positions, following close behind the drones(‘Drone rangers’?). Then the radio jammers were brought forward, and the whole process was repeated for the next stage of the advance.

Much more at the link.

The Washington Post has more details on the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk Oblast:

Ukrainian troops battled for a third day Thursday in Russia’s Kursk region, occupying villages and part of a town, in what has become the Western-backed military’s largest cross-border incursion since the Kremlin’s invasion in 2022.

U.S., Ukrainian and Russian officials all acknowledged the ongoing attack, which stunned Moscow and appeared to involve the use of armored fighting vehicles donated to Kyiv by the United States and its European partners — a development that drew no immediate objection from the Biden administration despite its past restrictions on such use of American weaponry.

The surprise assault on Kursk, about 330 miles south of Moscow, seemed designed to bring the war home to Russia, where many do not feel any direct impact of a conflict that has destroyed many Ukrainian cities and towns and displaced millions. It also may be intended to divert Russian troops from other locations along the front, where Ukraine’s military has steadily lost ground in recent months. Analysts suggested Kyiv could be trying to gain leverage for any future negotiations with the Kremlin.

The Biden administration said Thursday that the operation is an acceptable use of U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia, conforming with a May policy change that allows Ukrainian commanders to pursue targets there if Russian forces are preparing to launch attacks into Ukraine.

“As they see attacks coming across the border, they have to be able to have the capabilities to respond,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters during a news briefing.

German officials struck a similar tone. A defense ministry spokesman told The Washington Post that Berlin’s declared aim is to “support Ukraine in its defensive struggle against the Russian aggressor,” and pointed to past statements asserting Ukraine’s “right under international law to defend itself against these attacks.”

An adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, who like some other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the operation, confirmed the Ukrainian military activity inside Russia and said its forces had seized about 100 square kilometers. The claim could not be independently verified.

In three days, the Zelensky adviser said, Ukrainian personnel advanced past towns of thousands of people, took hundreds of prisoners, and captured a gas-metering station that Russia uses for energy transactions with Hungary and Slovakia.

Drone video published on Instagram by a regiment in Ukraine’s military purported to show Russian soldiers in Kursk surrendering. Personnel from Ukrainian units believed to be fighting in Kursk declined to comment, saying operational secrecy was to their advantage.

Ukraine’s Sumy region has come under repeated bombardment from Russian forces firing across the border. And while Western countries, including the United States, have allowed Ukraine to use donated weapons to preempt or intercept attacks originating from Russia, the assault on Kursk marks the first known instance in which U.S. officials have applied the same justification to a cross-border ground offensive.

Matthew Miller, a State Department spokesman, said Russia had launched attacks on Ukraine from the Kursk region and that the United States supported Kyiv’s right to defend itself. “In the area where they are operating,” Miller added, “ … we have seen attacks come from there.”

Kyiv’s forces have moved more than six miles into Russia, Russian military bloggers reported. The acting governor of Kursk, Alexei Smirnov, reported that dozens of civilians have been injured.

While the precise objective of Ukraine’s incursion is unclear, in addition to potentially diverting Russian troops from Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, Kyiv could be trying to gain leverage in future negotiations, analysts said.

One assessment indicated the Ukrainians are attempting to disrupt Russian forces moving to the Kharkiv region southeast of Sumy, a U.S. official said. Another official said it seems more likely Ukraine wants to overstretch Russian units rather than capture terrain and hold it for the long term.

“Russia does not have the manpower where they can send reinforcements … while maintaining their current force posture and numbers, both in the Kharkiv area as well as in the east,” the second official said. “You have to pull forces from somewhere.”

Ukrainian officials have asked Washington to let them to use long-range U.S. ATACMS missiles to hit airfields that Russia is using to retaliate against the incursion — a decision that, if approved, could allow Kyiv to hold a portion of Kursk for some time.

“This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia — this is what it’s all about,” the Zelensky adviser said.

On Thursday, gas was still flowing through Sudzha, the last operational shipping point for a pipeline that carries Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine. The station was unlikely to be used for leverage, the adviser said, because with the pipeline running through Ukraine anyway, Kyiv could have disrupted flows at any time.

Ukraine earns lucrative transit fees but has expressed a desire to cut off Russia’s remaining energy business in Europe. Meanwhile, Russia’s National Guard said it had beefed up security around the Kursk nuclear power station, about 40 miles northeast of the town.

With Kyiv bracing for Russian reprisals, Ukrainian officials on Wednesday ordered about 6,000 people to evacuate from Sumy.

Russia’s most senior military commander, chief of general staff Valery Gerasimov, informed Putin on Wednesday that the Ukrainian offensive had been halted. But Russian military bloggers painted a drastically different picture, criticizing Russian forces for not better fortifying the border and lamenting the town of Sudzha as lost to the Ukrainian invaders.

According to Vyortska, an independent Russian outlet that interviewed people from Sudzha and their relatives, many are facing difficulties leaving town.

“We called the emergency services and they said they are unable to get anyone out,” one woman, identified as Marina told the outlet. “As I understood, they are not able to evacuate and it is very difficult to move around the town as drones are hitting civilians.”

Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, suggested on the country’s national television news broadcast that any military actions on the Russian territory could better Ukraine’s position during future negotiations with Russia to end the war. He did not comment on the Kursk incursion specifically.

While Ukraine might be trying to divert forces from the east to defend its new offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, Russia has more personnel and maneuverability than Ukraine. Kyiv has been mobilizing thousands of troops in recent months in a ramped-up conscription campaign, but those recruits need to undergo weeks of training before reaching the battlefield.

More at the link.

Well this is interesting:

From Meduza:

One day into their unprecedented cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk region, Ukrainian forces captured the “Sudzha” gas metering station — a crucial part of the last remaining Russian pipeline still sending gas to Europe through Ukraine. Though Ukraine’s incursion into Russia is now in its fourth day, gas transit hasn’t stopped. Meduza breaks down what’s happening with the pipeline, how the capture of “Sudzha” has impacted the market, and why both sides in the conflict need to keep the gas flowing.

The first report that Ukrainian troops had captured the “Sudzha” gas metering station appeared Rybar, a Telegram channel run by a former Russian Defense Ministry employee, on August 7. Later that day, video footage from the region corroborated reports that Ukrainian forces were in control of the station, which is part of the infrastructure for the main pipeline still pumping Russian gas to Europe.

On August 8, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (speaking on condition of anonymity) told the Washington Post that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) had taken control of the station. Other leading global media outlets reported this as well.

According to the Center for Information Resilience (CIR), a British nonprofit specializing in open-source analysis, as of August 8, there was no visual confirmation that the gas metering station had sustained damage in the fighting. However, given the close proximity of the clashes and verified video footage of Russian soldiers surrendering at the station’s entrance, CIR told Reuters that it’s “likely that the plant has been affected by the Ukrainian incursion, [though] the level of damage cannot be verified at this time.”

Officially, the Ukrainian authorities have not yet confirmed control over “Sudzha” nor, for that matter, provided any other details about the operation in the Kursk region. However, Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko commented on the news, saying: “Our guys heroically took [Vladimir] Putin’s main gas valve in Sudzha. And for three years now, we haven’t been able to collect profits from Russian gas supplies to Europe.”

Why is “Sudzha” important?

Located just 500 meters (547 yards) from the Ukrainian border, the “Sudzha” gas metering station is a critical part of the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline — the main (and currently the only operational) route for exporting Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine. Essentially, the station serves as a border checkpoint for Russian gas. Once the gas passes through “Sudzha,” it enters Ukraine’s pipeline system and flows into Slovakia, before continuing on to Czechia and Austria.

In 2023, approximately 14.65 billion cubic meters of gas were pumped through “Sudzha,” accounting for nearly half of all Russian gas exports to Europe. The station’s primary functions are measuring gas flow and monitoring its quality. Losing control of this “gas border” could trigger a force majeure clause, potentially leading Gazprom to suspend gas supplies.

In May 2022, Ukraine declared force majeure at another station that routes Russian gas to Europe — the “Sokhranovka” station. At the time, Ukrtransgaz, the operator of Ukraine’s gas transportation system, cited the loss of operational control over the “Novopskov” compressor station, located in a Russian-occupied area of the Luhansk region, which handled the gas coming from “Sokhranovka.”

Have export volumes and prices been affected?

Despite the capture of the “Sudzha” station by Ukrainian forces, Gazprom hasn’t halted the flow of gas through the station, according to a statement from a Gazprom spokesperson quoted by Interfax. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko made a similar statement. The volume of gas requested for August 8 was 37.3 million cubic meters — only slightly below the usual daily average of 41 million. The request for August 9 was even higher, at 38.6 million cubic meters.

According to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), a slight decrease of about five to 10 percent in the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine was recorded on the morning of August 6. This reduction could simply be due to lower demand, as the heatwave in Europe has subsided, reducing the need for air conditioning and ventilation systems, and gas storage facilities are already 86.5 percent full, approaching the November 1 target of 90 percent.

Although the export pipeline has remained operational throughout the last two and a half years of active fighting, the recent escalation near the gas corridor has rattled the market: gas prices at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub rose eight percent in just two days, reaching 40.1 euros per megawatt-hour for September delivery contracts — the highest price in Europe this year. In response, Moldova is initiating a state of heightened alert (Transnistria receives its gas via the “Sudzha” station).

“If the transit of Russian gas suddenly stops now, prices for the fourth quarter of 2024 could rise another 20 percent from their current levels,” an analyst from a major Western trading company told Meduza on condition of anonymity. The E.U. countries most vulnerable are those still heavily dependent on Russian gas — Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia. However, Citigroup Inc. analysts believe that “both Russia and Ukraine have the incentives to keep natural gas flowing as normal.”

More at the link.

Obligatory:

Lipetsk airbase, Russia:

CNN has the details:

A Ukrainian source with knowledge of Friday’s attack on Lipetsk – which lies even deeper into Russian territory than Kursk – said it struck an airfield in the region, destroying an ammunition depot with more than 700 guided bombs, in a joint operation involving its military, security service and special operation forces.

The source said dozens of fighter jets and helicopters were on the airfield at the time, and that a powerful explosion had led to a huge fire breaking out. Lipetsk’s emergency ministry also reported a fire at a military airfield in the region.

“The enemy is hitting civilians in Kursk and Belgorod,” Artamonov wrote on Telegram. “Today [it] massively attacked our region with drones. We will not be frightened, we will not give in, but we are not going to risk the lives of our people either.”

Russia’s defense ministry said Friday it intercepted and destroyed 75 “aircraft-type” drones, including 19 over Lipetsk, 26 over Belgorod, seven over Kursk, and several others over the regions of Bryansk, Voronezh, and Orel. It said it also destroyed five over Crimea and eight over the waters of the Black Sea.

/6. Official Ukrainian statement regarding tonight’s drone attack on Russian military airfield in Lipetsk. And claims regarding strikes on Russian air defense systems in Donetsk region:

“Defense forces of Ukraine successfully hit the military airfield and air defense equipment of the Russian occupiers.

Tonight, the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck the airfield “Lipetsk” (Lipetsk region, Russian Federation). In the course of the attack, warehouses with guided aerial bombs and a number of other objects in the vicinity of the airport were hit. Several sources of ignition were recorded, a strong fire broke out and multiple detonations were observed. It is known that the Su-34, Su-35 and MiG-31 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces are based at the Lipetsk airfield. The results of the damage are being clarified.

In addition, our units attacked anti-aircraft missile divisions of the Russian Federation in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region. In particular, combat work was carried out against three enemy radars: two of the S-350 complexes and one of the S-300. Accurate hits and destruction of one S-350 air defense missile radar was confirmed. Regarding the other two, the information is currently being clarified. At the same time, it was recorded that all three enemy radars stopped working after the strikes.

Units of missile forces, special operations forces, forces of the Security Service of Ukraine and the forces of unmanned systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were involved in combat operations.

The joint combat work of all components of the Defense Forces on important targets of the Russian Armed Forces will continue in the future.

Together we will win!
Next will be…
Glory to Ukraine!”

https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/16555

Moscow:

If anyone is wondering, that arm lock is a kaiten nage. With an attempted variant/reversed sankyo thrown in on the fingers at the end. Also, we don’t use them on defenseless people that aren’t threatening anyone.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

21Comments

  1. 1.

    Eolirin

    What the Ukrainians could accomplish if they had a way to shut down Russian air support.

  2. 2.

    KatKapCC

    Bombing a supermarket feels as horrid as bombing a school or something. A completely civilian place where they know random people, including children, will be, and that is not a military location at all. Just atrocious.

    We have some Ukrainian speakers here, correct? I follow President Zelensky on socials, and while I assume the word “Ставка” means “staff” in his usage, on Facebook it was translated as “bet” and on Twitter (which uses Google translate) it was “rate”. Does the word have multiple meanings, or are the translation robots just not very bright?

  7. 7.

    dr. luba

    @KatKapCC: Multiple meanings.  Translation algorithms aren’t good a choosing the right one based on context.

    Older dictionaries, which many of the algorithms are based on, can be limited or only use older definitions:

    1) rate (тарифу, податку); с. заробі́тної пла́ти rate of wages; с. проце́нта rate of interest; тари́фна с. rate of tariff; 2) (у грі) stake; punt, pool; подво́єння ~и при про́грашіmartingale; роби́ти ~у на щось (на ко́гось) to count on something (on somebody); це оста́ння с. фіг. it is the last throw of the die.

    In Ukrainian, stavka can mean quarters; in russian, general headquarters, so perhaps a newer usage/loanword. Per a 1980s Ukrainian dictionary, stavka is an “old Russian name for a camping tent that was pitched for a senior military leader (commander) at the point from which he was to command the army during a battle.”

  8. 8.

    tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)

    Thank you, Adam.

    I am watching the Harris/Walz campaign and feeling hope and joy. Then I see the news in Ukraine, and it’s a sober reality check of how fragile our world is. We owe a great deal to the bravery and courage of Ukraine’s people and we need the Democrats to win up and down the ballot so that Ukraine gets the support it needs to prevail.

  9. 9.

    Bupalos

    I appreciate these posts. They are really in depth. And I really appreciate that you bother to provide all the content that is flowing through Musk in a way that allows people to stay off of X.

    I’d consider cutting it back to one or two points that actually energized this community. There is probably no one here who doesn’t find the footage of the arm-bar being applied to an old man on a bus to be hair-raising, but 95% of this community will not see it because it takes way too much trouble and commitment (ON THE INTERNET???!) to engage with the depth of coverage you provide here.

    And that sounds vaguely like criticism, it isn’t, I’m so thankful you do this work and appreciated every part of the Ukraine coverage here.

  10. 10.

    Gin & Tonic

    @KatKapCC: ​
    I believe, as dr. luba alludes to, that “ставка” as Z uses it in his Tweet is a russian borrowing. Don’t forget that Z and Syrskiy are native russian-speakers, and this is a military context, where that word in russian basically means “headquarters.”

    Translation algorithms where the source material is in more than one language, get confused. And multi-lingual people can easily context-switch, sometimes without noticing it.

  11. 11.

    Flanders Other Neighbor

    I have read most of these posts since the whole thing started, but I’m not knowledgeable enough about any of it to intelligently comment.  Just wanted to make note that limited comments may not mean limited readership.

    One of my hobbies is fabricating bicycle frames.  There’s a guy in MI who is a builder/teacher who for years had traveled to Ukraine to manufacture bicycles for (I think) clergy members so they could get around their towns.  In a few years when this stupid war is over and I’m retired, I think I’d like to lend him a hand.

  12. 12.

    wjca

    Today, @DeptofDefense announced a new security assistance package valued at $125 million to meet Ukraine’s most urgent needs.

    Definitely doesn’t sound like the US is particularly upset by Ukrainians using US-supplied equipment for the blitz into Russia. No matter what conditions were formally attached to their use.

    Perhaps (hoping hard) we will see something similar as the Ukranians start using other US-supplied equipment to strike military facilities elsewhere in Russia.  And, after this, it’s hard to imagine they won’t start doing so.  The benefit is just too great.

  16. 16.

    piratedan

    I guess this is a semi tactical question, do the Ukrainian forces continue east continuing the disruption of Russian forces, supplies and razing airfields or do they turn south and start envelopment of existing Russian forces currently engaged?

  17. 17.

    TooTallTom

    Adam, I continue to offer my thanks for your efforts, and your expertise. I certainly do not understand military strategy, and would appreciate an education. In the posts above, a senior Ukranian official says that the attack on Kursk is to draw Russian troops away from other areas. Ok, that’s a public statement, but it may not be the full story. Do you think that is the real reason, or are there other strategies at work here?

  18. 18.

    wjca

    @piratedan:

    I  hope Adam, or someone else more knowledgeable than I, can address this.  But I expect a major factor would have to be the state (or existance?) of defensive works along the border between Russia and occupied Ukraine.

    My guess, informed by past Russian behavior and nothing more, would be that the Russians haven’t bothered.  Although frantic efforts in that direction are probably now under way.

  20. 20.

    Carlo Graziani

    @piratedan: I think that it is very unlikely that any Go Big operation, such as the envelopment that you posit, is in contemplation here. Ukraine is carrying out this op with forces that it husbanded by shortchanging the defense of Donetsk. Those forces are necessarily limited, particularly in manpower (a bit of a problem for Ukraine, at the moment), but also in materiel, and also, importantly, in capacity for logistical sustainment. There is no chance, in my opinion, that this force can do more than push out a salient and attempt to make it defensible.

    It is worth recalling the Kharkhiv offensive of 2022, which was also carried out using a scratch force held out from the big Southern effort at Kherson. Limited objectives of consequence, such as the liberation of Kupyansk, were the guiding principles of that highly successful  operation. I think that we should be looking for that kind of scope here as well.

    I still like the Kursk nuclear power plant at Kurchatov as a possible objective, and I see that it’s getting more traction in news coverage today. But even that may be a reach. Personally, I am satisfied to wait until this thing is at least a week old before accepting any assessment of its meaning.

  21. 21.

    HinTN

    Adam – This synthesis of the available info on the Kurst salient is really insightful. Thank you. It appears that Ukraine has really thought through how to move the US and Europe toward a decision to allow them to carry the fight to Russia in a way that might alleviate the destruction from the Russia-launched bombing.

    Ukraine has also really looked at adapting new strategies and technology in ways that move the balance of power from numbers and grinding (Russia suggests wins this) to light force maneuver. Well done, Ukraine!

    Thanks, as always.

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