Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

T R E 4 5 O N

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

I really should read my own blog.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

Everybody saw this coming.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

with the Kraken taking a plea, the Cheese stands alone.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 900: Russia Sets a Fire at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

War for Ukraine Day 900: Russia Sets a Fire at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

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A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing very well between treatments. Her next one is a week from tomorrow. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

The Russians have lit a fire at the Zaprozhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. There’s a lot of speculation this is a demonstration intended to deter Ukraine from trying to seize or attack the nuclear power plant in Kursk Oblast. Which is silly because the Ukrainians already stated they had no intention of messing with it.

Enerhodar. We have recorded from Nikopol that the Russian occupiers have started a fire on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Currently, radiation levels are within norm. However, as long as the Russian terrorists maintain control over the nuclear plant, the situation is not and cannot be normal.

Since the first day of its seizure, Russia has been using the Zaporizhzhia NPP only to blackmail Ukraine, all of Europe, and the world.

We are waiting for the world to react, waiting for the IAEA to react. Russia must be held accountable for this. Only Ukrainian control over the Zaporizhzhia NPP can guarantee a return to normalcy and complete safety.

Unfortunately, Ukrainian air defense could not stop all of the inbound threats.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Just as Air Defense Protects Lives, Lifting Restrictions on Long-Range Strikes Will Save Thousands of Human Lives – Address by the President

11 August 2024 – 20:45

Dear Ukrainians!

Our priority remains the maximum strengthening of Ukraine’s air shield. Our air defense, our combat aviation. Every night and every day during this war, Ukrainians suffer from Russian strikes. Much, indeed much, has already been done to improve our defense capabilities, but not everything necessary is in place yet. We do not stop working with our partners to acquire more air defense systems and to ensure better quality training and supplies for all units of our skies’ defenders.

Of course, one of the key elements of any state’s air shield is combat aviation. At all levels, we must continue to tell our partners what is needed to close the Ukrainian skies to Shahed drones and missiles. Including North Korean missiles.

Last night, our warriors shot down over fifty Shahed drones. There were also four ballistic missiles – the Russians launched them from the Voronezh region. We document all locations from which the Russian army launches strikes – including the Belgorod region, the Kursk region, and other areas. Since the beginning of this summer alone, almost 2,000 strikes have been made on our Sumy region from districts of the Kursk region only: artillery, mortars, drones. We also document every missile strike. And every one of these strikes deserves a fair response.

Today, unfortunately, one of the North Korean missiles killed two people in the Kyiv region – a father and a son, the boy was 4 years old. My condolences to their family and loved ones. Three other people were injured. They have received the necessary assistance. Our experts have precisely identified the type of missile, and we know the exact area of Russian territory from which it was launched. It is entirely fair for Ukrainians to be able to respond to this terror in the way necessary to stop it. With appropriate long-range strikes on missile launch sites in Russia, with appropriate destruction of Russian military logistics. Terror must always be defeated – this is the fundamental principle of protecting life. And this is what we will continue to talk about with our partners – just as air defense protects lives, lifting restrictions on long-range strikes will save thousands of human lives.

Today I will also commend the rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine – all the staff of the Service. I thank every one of you who responds to sites after Russian strikes across all our regions, clears the rubble, extinguishes fires, and provides first aid. And overall ensures the rescue of our people. I am confident that all Ukrainians are grateful to you. And today, I especially want to thank the rescuers of the Kyiv region: Vitaliy Kharchenko, Mykola Zolotar, Vadym Hevko, Anatoliy Rybka, Viktor Zhukovych – all of whom are working in the city of Brovary. Thank you and your colleagues! And also, the rescuers of the Kharkiv region: Oleksandr Hlushchenko, Andriy Yermolenko, Vadym Hnatenko, Oleksandr Lyman, Mykola Kryvolapov. Thank you! The State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Donetsk region – everyone who works for the sake of our people. Especially – Serhiy Ishchenko, Mykola Pustovalov, Ivan Holovashchenko, Volodymyr Derenko and Viktor Kartashov. Also, the Kherson region – the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the region and especially – Anton Oliynyk, Vitaliy Parkhomenko, Yuriy Chervynskyi, Ruslan Vlasenko and Yevheniy Makarenko. Thank you, guys!

I thank everyone who stays in Ukraine and with us, with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

From Emil Kastehemi of the Blackbird Group:

Kursk offensive, situational update:

The operation has been ongoing for a almost a week. During the last days, Ukraine has not made very significant progress, but they have started solidifying their positions in the newly captured areas.

1/Image

As expected, it took Russia a few days to transfer units to the area, and they will likely continue to do so in the coming days. With their current forces, the Russians have managed to prevent any more serious breakthroughs from happening. Local counterattacks have started. 2/ 
Russians are likely still holding some central and eastern parts of Sudzha, while the Ukrainians are continuing operations in the area. In Martynovka, Russians counterattacked and likely pushed Ukrainians out of the village. Reportedly Ukrainians are trying to get it back. 3/ 
In the direction of Korenevo, Ukrainains have not been able to enter the city, at least not with a large force. There are some uncertainities in the zones of control especially on the western and northern flanks of the area of operations. 4/ 
Russia still doesn’t have a solid control of the frontline or the state border. For example, yesterday evening, multiple Russian channels reported Ukrainians operating deep in the direction of Belitsa. Sabotage and reconnaissance groups still seem to get through elsewhere too. 5/ 
The general situation of the Kursk offensive doesn’t look particularly good. After a week of fighting, neither Korenevo or Sudzha are fully in Ukrainian control, and the Russians have also likely blocked the northern direction. This isn’t a very desirable situation. 6/ 
However, for Ukraine, the situation isn’t particularly bad either. They are still holding onto most of the gained ground despite Russian counterattacks. Even with more Russian troops in the general area, Ukraine still holds the initiative. 7/ 
After more Russian reinforcements arrive, operational success is increasingly difficult to achieve, and there’s less room for the element of surprise. Committing more troops also increases risks, especially as the situation in eastern Ukraine is still difficult. 8/ 
There have been Russian rumours about Ukraine soon launching an attack either towards Rylsk or Glushkovo. They could achieve some success there, but there would be a limited effect to the general situation. The most valuable places in the Kursk oblast would still be safe. 9/Image

The main question is:

What can Ukraine achieve, if it spends more manpower and equipment to take more border villages in the Kursk direction? There’s a limited amount of benefit to be gained from simply controlling more land. 10/ 

A larger land area would, of course, have more weight in possible peace negotiations in the future. Even if Ukraine were to reach the Rylsk-Korenevo-Sudzha line, it would likely still be less valuable than many of the territories currently occupied by Russia in Ukraine. 11/Image
Some have argued that expanding the zone of control could force the Russians to shift their focus to Kursk at the expense of other directions, because of political reasons. I’m not entirely convinced the Russians will do this, as there are other possible scenarios too. 12/ 
It’s possible that the Russians would try to freeze the front and let Ukraine stay in the occupied area, assuming that the issue of a few dozen towns and villages can be solved in future negotiations, as the priority is to achieve the set political goals inside Ukraine. 13/ 
In this situation, some additional Ukrainian forces would be tied to guard and hold an expanded secondary direction, while the fight in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kharkiv would continue just as intensively. 14/ 
The Kursk offensive is increasingly beginning to look like a medium risk – medium reward operation. There’s no massive game-changing objectives to be achieved, but there’s also no likely catastrophes on the horizon. 15/ 

The best case scenario for Ukraine would probably be the following:

Russia decides it’s not acceptable to leave any areas to Ukrainian hands, and will divert significant resources even from the most critical places and to get every square kilometre back, despite the losses. 16/ 

This would severely attrit the Russians, ease the pressure in other directions, and maybe even make it possible for Ukrainians to improve the tactical situation locally in the east. However, as usual, the reality will most likely set somewhere in between. 17/ 
Regardless of whether the Ukrainians continue their advance, they have proved that occupation of relatively large areas is no longer a privilege of Russia. The war is now even more concretely a war on Russian soil as well, and Russia must take this into account in many ways. 18/ 
Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to follow the situation with multiple daily updates. It’s been an intensive week! 19/19

From The Financial Times:

Russia has failed to push back Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region despite sending in reinforcements as the incursion enters its sixth day, Ukrainian soldiers involved in its army’s operation told the Financial Times on Sunday.

Speaking near the international border, the troops said they remained in Russian territory.

Russian general Valery Gerasimov has repeatedly attempted to portray the situation as being under control, with the defence ministry posting videos on Sunday of fighter jets and helicopters purportedly striking columns of Ukrainian equipment.

But verified videos and photographs show Ukrainian troops and equipment have advanced 30km inside Russia since the operation began on Tuesday, moving further into Kursk and occupying the town of Sudzha near the Russian border.

“We are going deeper,” said Denys, a Ukrainian soldier who has made three rotations into Russian territory since the incursion began. Kyiv’s troops still had the upper hand despite Russia bringing in reinforcements, he added, as a Ukrainian fighter jet zoomed overhead.

His unit, which the FT is not identifying at the request of Denys and his senior officers, had been rotated to the area from the eastern Donetsk region more than a week ago to take part in the offensive.

Another soldier, Kostyantyn, said the early success of the surprise operation had “really lifted our spirits”. “We feel confident of Ukrainian victory,” he added, before driving back into the fight.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy broke five days of silence on Saturday night to refer to his forces’ incursion into Russia publicly for the first time.

Zelenskyy said his commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi had reported to him about “the frontline situation and on our actions to push the war out into the aggressor’s territory”.

“Ukraine is proving that it really knows how to restore justice and guarantees exactly the kind of pressure that is needed — pressure on the aggressor,” he added.

A Ukrainian defence ministry official told the FT that they were being tight-lipped on details of the operation because they were “waiting to see how it develops first”.

The ultimate aim of Ukraine’s incursion — which is using some of its best and most elite brigades — remains unclear. But the operation has demonstrated that Russia’s border defences are still weak more than a year after Ukraine’s first mini-incursion and has given Kyiv a much-needed morale boost.

Analysts have said Ukraine may be seeking to use the Kursk offensive to improve its position in potential talks. It is losing territory and men in eastern Ukraine and is still struggling to resolve ammunition and manpower shortages.

Videos posted by Ukrainian troops on Saturday showed them joyously hoisting the Ukrainian flag on a Russian village council building and allegedly telling residents to get ready for a referendum — both tactics often used by Russian forces in Ukraine. Several dozen captured Russian soldiers were also filmed being driven into Ukraine.

More at the link!

Since there have been numerous articles and statements on Telegram channels about the movement of Russian and Ukrainian reinforcements to the frontline, specifically the Kursk area, I think it’s important to address a few points:

– Both Russian and Ukrainian forces face the same issue: battalions are often pulled from their brigades to reinforce weaker sections of the frontline. This means that when people hear “a brigade has moved,” it might actually refer to only one or two battalions.

– We are now at a stage in the war where battalions can be essentially reinforced companies due to shortages of manpower and vehicles. This applies to both sides, as both Russia and Ukraine have created many new units and rapidly expanded their structures but lack enough personnel to fully staff existing units.

– Many OSINT analysts (this is not a criticism, just noting the limitations) often use FPV drone footage to identify the presence of specific units. For example, if X brigade posts a drone video from the Kherson area, it might be concluded that X brigade is operating there. However, native UAV units can be deployed separately for specific operations due to their mobility and effectiveness. Additionally, both Ukrainian and Russian forces have used this for disinformation, deliberately uploading videos from different locations with their logos to confuse the enemy.

Overall, when you read statements like “Another Ukrainian brigade has been spotted in Kursk” or “A Russian regiment from Krynky is heading to Kursk,” it could mean anything from a company-sized battalion moving to a full brigade with thousands of personnel and dozens or even hundreds of vehicles.

If you’re curious, the Ukrainians are, partially, crowdfunding this offensive into Russia:

This excavator is currently supporting the 225th Separate Assault Battalion in the Kursk region, helping to fortify our troops and keep them safer.

This was made possible thanks to your contributions. The 225th Battalion, once a Kharkiv Territorial Defense unit that endured unimaginable challenges, is now advancing in Kursk, liberating the local population from the oppressive rule of the Moscow empire.

Your support has been crucial. Now, with the help of
@LibertyUkraineF
, I’m raising funds for a new batch of excavators for our military, and I need your help.

Donation link: https://paypal.com/pools/c/96S6xs98Rr

Please donate, share, and like this post to increase the visibility of the fundraiser.

One should not underestimate the PR stunt (c) ™ component of Ukraine’s defense effort in war, particularly when it comes to the Kursk operation.

Of course, political and media objectives cannot and must not be at the center of it, but they are also essential and helpful.

We need to bring the Russian-Ukrainian war into the global spotlight and do it on a very high note.

Ukraine is not just a barely known distant country in Eastern Europe that’s dying under Russian bombs in a trivialized war somewhere far away.

Ukraine is back at kicking asses and stunning the world against all odds.

Here we go with a natural, shockingly successful ground strike deep into the Russian territory. Not just a borderland raid but a large-scale military operation with a large territory taken under control and record-high quantities of disoriented and demoralized Russians taken POWs.

A gargantuan humiliation of Putin and his imperial machine that so many in the West prefer to comfortably come to terms with as “undefeatable.”

We are ultimately showing the global community, notably decision-makers, that Putin’s countless red lines are worthless bravado and that the West needs to get rid of its self-paralyzing fear of Putin and his totalitarian mafia state – which can and should be contained and defeated for truly just and long-lasting peace in Europe.

People love underdogs, but only when they are unexpectedly winning.

To survive as an independent nation (and thus win the war with Putin’s Russia), Ukraine needs American support and aid. The more, the better, the faster, the sooner.

And, interdependently, you have to be winning to motivate America to trust your cause and send you aid.

With all due respect, when things were looking extremely dire on the eve of the Russian invasion in 2022, the Biden administration was refusing to impose pre-emptive sanctions on Russia and flood Kyiv with advanced weaponry.

When Russians were standing at the gates of Kyiv, Zelensky was offered to leave Ukraine ASAP.

But when Ukraine scored a very unexpected (and, IMHO, brilliant) victory in the Battle of Kyiv, thus derailing the entire ‘special military operation,’ things changed.

America and the West saw that nothing was over. The Ukrainian cause is unexpectedly something to trust in and actively side with.

This was the beginning of a painful process of persuading the West to give Ukraine the tools to win, one weapon class at a time. There was (and still is) a very long way to go.

We had our ups with things like the Kharkiv offensive in 2022 or the liberation of Kherson.

And when things go south, just like what happened last summer with the failed operation on the Zaporizhia front — it always gives a voice to those saying that all is gone and that America needs to walk away from the one who’s just heroically losing and is not stunning the public with an unexpectedly crushing punch into Russia’s very gut just out of a sudden.

And for that, Ukraine needs out-of-the-box solutions and very sudden moves that not only give us military objectives but also remind everyone that they are very, very wrong if they think that Ukraine does not stand a very real chance of making it in front of all the haters.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Сир робить чудеса! 🙂‍↕️🧀✨ #песпатрон

♬ original sound – 2000spophits🔥

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Cheese works miracles! 🙂‍↕️🧀✨ #песпатрон

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

28Comments

  8. 8.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Jay:

     

    the number of surrendering Russian soldiers is staggering. By credible reports, almost a 1,000 troops have surrendered over the last six days.

    Not so different from the collapse of the Iraq army in front of ISIS. These Russians are ordinary men, so I don’t want to dis them as cowards. Badly trained? Sure. Badly led? Sure. The officers have to be really bad to be unable to cover an unexpected situation.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Mallard Filmore: These are mostly conscripts that probably did not expect to be fighting Ukrainians, since the “SMO” means only contract soldiers, foreign “volunteers” & convict “volunteers” could fight in Ukraine.

    OTOH, Russia will be able to use its conscript force to fight the UA w/in Russia, so it can bring greater combat power to bear than it could in Ukraine. However, it might take a while for the Russian Army to get its act evens somewhat together.

  10. 10.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    There was an “interview” with a conscript prisoner released yesterday. He was in his second year, was badly brutalized, never shot a gun or handled a grenade, he mostly did his “old man’s” scut work and gave his pay and gifts from home to his “old man” and his officers.

  11. 11.

    Jay

    https://nitter.poast.org/sumlenny/status/1822711723276804226#m

    Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M
    @sumlenny
    6h
    THREAD Putin has removed Army’s Gerasimov from command over Kursk operation, installed FSB’s Portnikov. This is great. Let me explain:
    1) Russian system of power always set on the secret police over the Army. The Secret Police was over-financed over-empowered for centuries /1
    Aug 11, 2024 · 7:08 PM UTC

  12. 12.

    Mallard Filmore

    @YY_Sima Qian: 

    These are mostly conscripts that probably did not expect to be fighting Ukrainians,

    Yes. Most of the YouTube channels that I (waste my time) watch say that. Not all conscripts are near worthless. Israel and other countries give their soldiers high quality training.

    I do wonder how different the Russian performance is from what happened when Japan invaded the Philippines. Or in 1950 when North Korea invaded the south.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    @Mallard Filmore:

    Dedovshchina (Russian: дедовщина, lit. ’reign of old-timers’) is the informal practice of hazing and abuse of junior conscripts historically in the Soviet Armed Forces and today in the Russian Armed Forces, Internal Troops, and to a much lesser extent FSB, Border Guards, as well as in other armed forces and special services of former Soviet Republics. It consists of brutalization by more senior conscripts, NCOs, and officers. It is a form of non-statutory dominant-status relations between military personnel; the most common form of non-statutory relations, which is a violation of the statutory rules of relations between conscripts, based on the informal hierarchical division of soldiers and sergeants by enlistment and length of service.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina

    Start here.

    Russian, Soviet, Russian conscripts have always been “meat” unless used in ranks, (Napoleanic Wars, Crimea, Port Arthur, WWI on defence) with an armed Officer commanding their every move in closed ranks.

  14. 14.

    Bill Arnold

    @Jay:
    Was poking at your previous comment on conscript brutality, and found this:
    Russia’s Military Cruelty Begins With Its Own Conscripts – Brutal hazing breaks and humiliates Russian soldiers—and they take it out on civilians. (DECEMBER 10, 2023, Kristaps Andrejsons, Foreign Policy)
    (archive link)

    Whole piece is interesting; sample paragraph.

    After the introduction of the one-year system, in another half-hearted attempt at military reform in the mid-2000s, these term-based beatings became less formalized. However, this didn’t mean a stop or even a general decrease in violence, just a change in the reasoning and pace behind it. Today, the older service members just beat up whomever they like. A soldier used to take beatings for a year and then spend another year giving them to the fresh recruits. Now a conscript does both for six months apiece. Once-organized violence has become general brutality.

    A society that does this is not civilized.

  16. 16.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: It is noteworthy that “Dedovshchina” is a very old practice, dating back to the USSR’s Red Army. As @Bill Arnold: points out, an attempt to eradicate it was made in the mid-oughts, together with a number of other reforms (including the institutionalization of a professional NCO corps), but these ran a-cropper of the existing deep conservatism and corruption in the Russian military. With Shoigu’s return as Minister of Defense, the whole project was shitcanned, and the return to the comfort zone of the status quo ante ended any prospect of making the RuAF resemble a modern Western military in its recruit training institutions.

  18. 18.

    Subsole

     

     

    @Mallard Filmore:

    The Russians, for all their imperial pretensions, don’t seem to value their army much at all.

    Also, trying to wrap my head around 900 days of this…

  19. 19.

    Subsole

     

     

    @Jay: I am reminded of stories I read about the absolutely brutal culture of the IJA, and how that filtered down onto occupied peoples.

    For some reason, I also recall reading that a great many Japanese combat losses were due to disease and malnutrition…

  21. 21.

    Yutsano

    People love underdogs, but only when they are unexpectedly winning.

    I’m nominating that.

  22. 22.

    wjca

    Zaporizhzhia has plenty of Russian officials on site now and Russia wants to deploy it in future. Would be an odd threat to make. Surely russia would have more direct threats it could make (and has been happy to hint at) if Ukraine targets Kursk NPP?

    It may be that the Russians (at least some of them) are feeling panicked enough that they are grasping at straws.  Viewed that way, as a desperate threat because they do not, in reality, have a plausible more direct threat, it makes some sense.

  23. 23.

    wjca

    @Jay: It’s unclear what the fratricide rate is.

    Earlier, you: mentioned a Russian conscript who had “never shot a gun or handled a grenade.”  Perhaps, in part, to keep the fratricide rate down.  Not to mention the fragging rate.

  24. 24.

    wjca

    @Carlo Graziani: an attempt to eradicate it was made in the mid-oughts, together with a number of other reforms (including the institutionalization of a professional NCO corps), but these ran a-cropper of the existing deep conservatism and corruption in the Russian military.

    That makes it all the more impressive that the Ukranian military, even though its leadership was trained in the Russian model, has apparently managed to eliminate it.  Which resulted in noticable more effective fighting ability for its units.

  25. 25.

    Jay

    @Subsole:

    A huge part of the Island Hopping Campaign, was isolating IJN and IJA garrisons from resupply, by passing the islands, but leaving them to starve and not have medical supplies.

  26. 26.

    Jay

    @wjca:

    Unfortunately, it has not fully managed the shift. There are major complaints from successful Brigaide Commanders and soldiers that many top Commanders arn’t up to date, are ignoring realities on the ground, and are “Soviet”.

  28. 28.

    wjca

    @Jay:  Unfortunately, it has not fully managed the shift.

    Inevitable, I think.  Stepping away from your initial training is very hard; impossible for some.  Which makes it all the more impressive how far they have come anyway.

Comments are closed.