Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

We know you aren’t a Democrat but since you seem confused let me help you.

The gop couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

You can’t love your country only when you win.

American History and Black History can not be separated.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Donald Trump, welcome to your everything, everywhere, all at once.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

The lights are all blinking red.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

T R E 4 5 O N

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 901: More on the Kursk Offensive

War for Ukraine Day 901: More on the Kursk Offensive

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A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing great. She’s got this week off as her next treatment is next Monday. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

I’m going to put the Kursk stuff after the jump so I don’t have to break it up.

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

It Is Only Fair to Destroy Russian Terrorists Where They Are – Address by the President

12 August 2024 – 19:49

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

The most important things for today. I held a meeting of the Staff. There was a report by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. On the frontline situation and all key defense areas. As well as the operation in the Kursk region – General Syrskyi reported that about a thousand square kilometers in the Kursk region are under our control. These are, in particular, the areas from which the Russian army launched strikes on our Sumy region. For today and since June 1, there have been almost 2100 shellings of the Sumy region’s territory. Therefore, our operations are purely a security matter for Ukraine, the liberation of the border area from the Russian military. I thank all our soldiers, sergeants and officers for their courage and for the efficiency of their actions. Of course, I want to express special gratitude to each of our units that replenish the “exchange fund” for us, for Ukraine. It is a matter of principle for us to return all our people from Russian captivity. And today, at the meeting of the Stuff, the structures involved in the exchanges – the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Ministry of Internal Affairs – were instructed to communicate as actively as possible with the relatives of Ukrainian captives. To explain to them transparently how the lists for the exchange are formed, who can really be returned now. In general, they were instructed to present a clear strategy for the return of our people from Russian captivity. At the next meeting, there should be a relevant report. I also very much expect that the Minister of Defense and all our Ukrainian diplomats will work as actively as possible with our partners on long-range capabilities for Ukraine – we need appropriate permissions from our partners to use long-range weapons. This is something that can significantly advance the just end of this war, as well as save thousands of Ukrainian lives from Russian terror. It is only fair to destroy Russian terrorists where they are, where they launch their strikes from. Russian military airfields, Russian logistics. We see how useful this can be for bringing peace closer. Russia must be forced into peace if Putin wants to continue waging war so badly. At the next meeting, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine and representatives of the diplomatic service should present a relevant list of steps regarding long-range capabilities. At today’s meeting, the Government officials also presented a report on our economic capabilities and our production. We must act in such a way that our Ukrainian production receives the necessary support no matter what. The Government was instructed to increase the share of Ukrainian production in public procurement, and these should be long-term contracts for 5-10 years. We will definitely do it.

And a few other things.

Today I held a meeting with the U.S. Senate delegation. Senators Graham and Blumenthal – they represent both parties. I thanked America for supporting our defense; and it is crucial that Ukrainians and Americans are truly victorious in this our defense of normal life and people’s freedom. We discussed what exactly is needed to bring this war to its end, and to bring it to a just end. I explained in detail our need for long-range capabilities.

Today, I also held a meeting with our international experts – the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Office. We have thoroughly planned meetings and negotiations for the second half of August and September. We know how to strengthen Ukraine and what can help us achieve justice.

We see how Russia really moves in the times of Putin: 24 years ago, there was the Kursk disaster – the symbolic beginning of his rule; and now we can see what the end for him is. And it is also Kursk. The disaster of his war. This always happens to those who despise people and any rules. Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home. Ukraine has always wished only for peace, and we will definitely ensure peace.

I thank everyone who helps us! Glory to all those who fight, who work for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

As Volodymyr prepared to enter Russian territory, adrenaline ran through his veins. It was not lost on him that 81 years ago, another battle in Russia’s Kursk region marked a turning point for Europe.

He and the other soldiers of the 82nd air assault brigade listened to their commander’s instructions: eyes open, move swiftly and keep your country in your thoughts. Then, after a short prayer and a battle cry of “Glory to Ukraine!” they set out to invade Russia — the first foreign army to do so since the second world war.

“We entered Russian territory for the first time at 1pm on Tuesday [August 6],” Volodymyr said. “We were among the first to enter there.”

To his astonishment, his unit faced no resistance as their eight-wheeled, 20 tonne US Stryker fighting vehicle stormed across the border in broad daylight.

They soon encountered a Russian unit “sitting in the forest, drinking coffee at a table”, Volodymyr recalled. “Then our Stryker drives right into their table.

“We killed many of them on the first day,” he said. “Because they were unarmed and didn’t expect us.”

Not wanting to end up like their comrades, he added, “dozens” of stunned Russian soldiers simply laid down their weapons and surrendered.

Over the next six days, the fear felt by many of the thousands of Ukrainian troops taking part in this audacious operation yielded to exhilaration. They advanced quickly — by 5km-10km a day — seizing several villages, part of a railway line and a key gas transit point. They began hastily digging positions and preparing for Russian reinforcements to arrive.

But to their surprise, Russian troops did not appear, at least not in the manner that they expected. Powerful glide bombs were launched from Russian jets, which wiped out some Ukrainian troops and valuable western-provided equipment. Lancet X-winged suicide drones came barrelling towards them. But the Ukrainians pressed on.

“It was a bit difficult at first but then it got easier,” said Roman, another soldier in Volodymyr’s unit.

On Friday, however, their Stryker was hit by a Russian rocket-propelled grenade. The driver suffered a concussion but everyone survived, thanks to the vehicle’s thick layer of armour. Unable to drive it further, they towed it back across the border.

When the Financial Times met the crew on Sunday, just 5km inside Ukraine, Volodymyr, Roman and two other soldiers were taking the damaged vehicle apart to see what could be used as spare parts for other Strykers before sending it to a US base in Germany for repairs.

As with the Russians, the US and German governments — two of Ukraine’s largest military and financial supporters — said they had not been informed in advance about the Ukrainian incursion.

Wolfgang Büchner, a German government spokesperson, on Monday said the operation had been “prepared with great secrecy and without consultation” from Berlin. “Everything points to a spatially restricted deployment,” he added.

The FT spoke to more than a dozen soldiers on condition that their surnames not be published for security reasons.

“Our mood is good. Morale is high,” said Serhiy, a paratrooper from the 80th air assault brigade, sipping an energy drink on a road leading to Kursk.

As he spoke, explosions reverberated from the front line and a Ukrainian fighter jet flew at low altitude on its way back from an attack on Russian positions.

Much more at the link.

United24 Media has the details:

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has documented attempts by Russian special services to exploit the situation in the Kursk Region by falsely accusing Ukrainian defenders of war crimes. “The Russian side is creating and disseminating various fabrications and misinformation that have no basis in reality,” the statement says.

The SBU warns that Russian special services may soon stage crimes, particularly against civilians in the Kursk Region, to falsely blame Ukraine for these acts.

“These informational and psychological operations by Russia are largely a response to their inability to effectively counter the offensive actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” the statement reads.

The SBU emphasized that such efforts are in vain and will neither hinder the Armed Forces’ operations nor sway the opinion of Ukraine’s international partners.

“The Ukrainian Defense Forces have demonstrated to the world their strict adherence to the rules and customs of warfare, including their treatment of Russian prisoners of war and the civilian population.”

Here’s the Carnegie Endowment’s Dara Massicot’s assessment of how Russia is responding to Ukraine’s offensive into Kursk.

Russia begins its response to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk. Multiple ministries are involved and the command structure is still forming. Someone in Ukraine knew what they were doing and exploited a weak seam in Russian C2. A few important issues to watch: 🧵Image
Russia has declared its defense operation to be a “counter-terrorist operation” (KTO in Russian). This is a domestic operation and the FSB and Rosgvardia have roles along with the military. This is what the war in Chechnya was called from 1999 until it ended./2 
Putin has instructed the FSB (+ its border troops) and Rosgvardia to defend the borders and assist this operation. He also told the military today that their main task is driving out Ukrainian forces from Russian territory and countering Ukrainian recon and sabotage groups /3 
Who is responsible for what in Kursk? FSB Border troops and Rosgvardia have responsibility for the border and ensuring its defense. For the military: Kursk is located in Moscow Military District, but the troops forward deployed IVO Ukraine belong to the Leningrad MD. /4Image

The entirety of the area was formerly the Western Military District (2010-24). Russia decided to split it up in March-April 2024 to cope with NATO expansion. It named two commanders: Lapin (LEMD) and Kozovlev (MOMD). / 5

The Operational Group of Forces North received a name change and upgrade about 1-2 weeks before it attacked Kharkiv in May. Prior to May it was a territorial defense group. So for the past 3 months it’s been transitioning from a defensive to offensive orientation, meaning /6 
..that this Russian Op Group was much weaker than the others: from May – Aug it had a major reorganization, a new commander, and attacked Kharkiv early. It’s MOD units are now bogged down in Kharkiv and that offensive is not making progress. / 7 
Someone in Ukraine knew where to press. The AFU attacked a weak spot (Kursk) of the weakest Op Group. A C2 scramble between FSB border guards, Akhmat fighters, and any MOD forces that could rally ensued in week 1. /8 
Russia has experience in creating a combined C2 structure that involves internal security agencies and the military from its experience in the second Chechen war. In the 90s, a joint command was established in what was then the North Caucasus MD HQ. /9
rand.org/content/dam/ra…
I raise this because Bortnikov and Gerasimov worked with this specific C2 arrangement in Chechnya. While today’s situation is much different, they remember how to work together. Implementation is a different matter of course, but I note the experience. /10 
I haven’t seen a KTO headquarters established yet. Who could lead it? All military district commanders are dual hatted as operational group commanders and their forces are engaged. MOD options could be: Lapin, Kozovlev, Nikiforov, Gerasimov. /11 
It’s Lapin’s AOR, but Op Group North is weak. The territory is Moscow MD, but Kozovlev and many of his forces are in eastern Ukraine. Nikiforov is Ground Forces commander and former op group commander, his name is circulating online. Gerasimov also given the stakes/12 
Rosgvardia’s tasks will be to set up cordons, roadblocks, and other barriers. FSB border guards in the area have been taken prisoner already, to include conscripts , a very politically sensitive issue for Putin. /13 
FSB assets will be doing recon and trying to sweep up AFU teams, and interrogation. Russian forces are already taking small numbers of AFU teams as prisoner. Here I worry about what comes next because the FSB uses horrible torture methods. /14 
Russia’s MChS (Ministry of Emergency Situations) is also now engaging with evacuations of towns. Russia is showing videos of some armor moving and eventually I would anticipate more helicopter, VKS assets. They will probably use artillery especially if the towns are emptied. /15 
This AFU operation has successfully exploited seams of responsibility between the FSB, Rosgvardia and MOD. I suspect targeted leaks will emerge between MOD/GRU and FSB over who is responsible for intel and defense failures. /16 
AFU invaded Russia despite 2 years of partial mobilization in Kursk, 10 years of legislation to make power ministries coordinate better, and a 2023 offer from Prigozhin to help guard the border (Shoigu rejected it). Bardak as usual. Now the reaction begins. /17 
This war has left Russia’s borders weak, the army engaged in Ukraine and not immediately available to defend border regions, and FSB border troops not supported. The Russian system’s instinct will be to overcorrect and swing harshly at Kursk. /end 

And here’s Tatarigami’s and his Frontelligence Insight Team’s most recent assessment of Russia’s manpower situation.

The Myth of Endless Manpower: Russian Soldiers’ Average Age Approaches 38 as Trends Persist

🧵Thread by Frontelligence Insight:

1/ Russian gains in Ukraine are often attributed to their superior numbers in resources and manpower, fostering the perception of an endless manpowerImage

2/ Our recent research shows that increasing recruitment challenges in Russia affect not only the quantity but also the quality of recruits. The average age of Russians killed in Ukraine is nearing 38 and rising. This trend could significantly impact the war’s course. 
3/ But first, let’s discuss the current recruitment numbers. According to an investigation by the Conflict Intelligence Team and iStories, 345400 one-time payments were made for signing contracts in 2023. This closely aligns with the 30,000 monthly recruits reported by the GUR.Image
4/ As of August 1, contract signers began receiving nearly doubled one-time federal payments of 400,000 rubles, along with additional payments from local authorities. In places like Moscow, payments can go up to ~2 million rubles. This is done to offset growing recruitment issues 

5/ But what about the quality of these recruits?

According to our findings, between February 2022 and May 2024, the average age of Russian soldiers killed in action increased from 30.2 in early 2022 to 37.8 by July 2024Image

6/ To obtain this number, we analyzed a dataset of 23,584 records from Russian obituary posts on social media, which included both dates of birth and dates of death. This dataset comes from the Poteru dot net project, which collects obituary posts from the VK social network 
7/ Before assessing the implications, we need to place the current situation in the context of other wars. To provide a meaningful comparison, we can look at the Vietnam War, given the reliable data available from that period. 
8/ According to the Combat Area Casualty File data from the Vietnam Helicopter Pilots Association, based on 58,148 death records, the average age of a U.S. servicemember KIA during the Vietnam War was 23.11 years: a 15-year age gap compared to Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.Image
9/ Individuals signing contracts come from a civilian pool. Although exact data on their fitness is lacking, the World Health Organization reports that pre-war life expectancy at birth for Russian males was 65.6 years, with a healthy life expectancy of 58.2 years. 
10/ It suggests that the Russian government not only has to offer significantly higher payments to recruit individuals but also ends up with recruits who may be less fit for combat roles, either partially or fully. They are more likely to suffer casualties from chronic illnesses 
11/ Although Ukrainian demographics are anything but better than Russian ones, the extensive focus on Ukrainian manpower issues has fostered a perception that Ukraine is doomed due to seemingly endless Russian human resources and high recruitment numbers 
12/ Our research has demonstrated that this perception is misleading and indicates that Russia’s ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations with territorial gains, based on a manpower advantage, is not as sustainable as it seems in the long run. 
13/ While the data presented may still contain some inaccuracies, errors, or potential duplicates, the trend is quite consistent with demographic findings from other investigations and metrics reported by investigative groups like Mediazona and iStories 

14/ More information on our data and sources is available on our website. If you would like to support further investigations like this, please consider making a donation. We rely solely on public donations and subscriptions for our funding:

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

 

 

Yekatrinburg, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

21Comments

  3. 3.

    Nukular Biskits

    I can’t blame the Ukrainians for invading, taking and holding Russian territory.

    IMHO, they’d never have needed to do that if the US, et al, would allow them to use US weapons (and those provided by other allied nations) to strike targets on Russian soil.

    As always, Adam, good roundup.

  12. 12.

    Gin & Tonic

    That Dara Massicot thread contains a word that may not be familiar to everyone: bardak. That is not a person or place, it is a term for situational chaos due to incompetence, kind of like SNAFU.

  13. 13.

    KatKapCC

    Curious that Graham has the nerve to visit Ukraine while supporting a candidate who would happily shut off aid and supplies and let Putin take whatever he wants.

  14. 14.

    Carlo Graziani

    Great haul this evening, Adam.

    Syrsky’:

    “As of now about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory has been taken under control.”

    That would be wild, if true, but it seems likely false. Most estimates of territory under actual Ukrainian control are under 400 sq-km. Syrsky may be counting all the territory where Ukrainians are operating, irrespective of whether they can reasonably be said to be “in control”. Not sure why he would brief his own NatSec folks that way, though.

    As to Tatarigami’s estimates of average recruit age, it may be skewed low. FrontIntelligence is using KIA numbers. I would guess that those skew towards the younger recruits, who are better-suited to infantry assault roles. So that 37.8-year old mean recruit may actually be pushing 40.

    Massicot is clarifying as always.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: There is the PR/propaganda/information warfare aspect to Syrsky’s or Zelenskyy’s claims

    I wouldn’t begrudge them for exaggerating, as long as we do not take such claims at face value.

  17. 17.

    Nettoyeur

    Adam….the Kursk attack looks like a Deep Operation of the sort introduced into Red Army doctrine by Marshal Tukachevsky in the 1930s and applied successfully in the battles of Khalkin Gol before WWII and, in WWII, Vthr battle of Stalingrad, and on a massive scale , Operation Bagration in Belarus. Xare to comment?

  18. 18.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Nettoyeur: Not Adam, but my amateur understanding of the Red Army “Deep Battle” doctrine is designed to breach prepared enemy defensive lines, wreak havoc by introducing operational maneuver groups into the enemy’s rear, to rapidly cause the collapse of the enemy’s will & ability to resist effectively, and finally the encirclement & destruction of enemy groupings. The Ukrainian attack into the Kursk regions seems to be more of raids in force along multiple axis against weak Russian defenses, & opportunistically seizing under defended territory. So far, it does not appear the Ukrainian attacks have ever been designed to directly turn toward the rears of Russian groupings assaulting in the Donetsk, Kharkiv or Kupyansk to disrupt their operations, or to surround & destroy any large Russian regular army units.

  19. 19.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: 100%. Something like 1 division worth of forces—10k-15k personnel, from a mix of battallions drawn from different brigades—are involved. There is zero chance that a break-through follow-on force could have also been pulled from the Donetsk front, and is waiting for an exploitation opportunity. This is not that.

  20. 20.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Funny thing,…………… yesterday, at Pootie-Poot’s presser announcing the ATO in Kursk, the Governor of Kursk said that Ukraine had taken “1,000 sq km and 28 settlements”.

    And Pootie-Poot shushed him by saying” don’t say numbers”.

Comments are closed.