Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Can we lighten up on the doomsday scenarios?

If you are in line to indict donald trump, stay in line.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Glad to see john eastman going through some things.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

I also would like a pony to improve my balloon juice experience.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 902: Even More on the Kursk Offensive

War for Ukraine Day 902: Even More on the Kursk Offensive

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A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing excellently. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

As I start tonight’s post at 7:35 PM EDT/2:35 AM local time in Ukraine all of eastern Ukraine, most of central Ukraine, and three oblasts in western/northwestern Ukraine are all under air raid alert. There’s no indicators on the alert maps that Russian strategic fixed wing aviation is up, so this is most likely for a Shahed drone attack. The reason the Russian strategic fixed wing aviation isn’t up is because Russian no longer controls Kursk Oblast. So that’s another advantage of the Ukrainians Kursk offensive. As of 8:29 PM EDT/3;39 AM local in Ukraine, the air raid alerts are coming down and are only up in Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Kirovorhad, and Sumy Oblasts. There’s still the threat of drone strikes, so it’s not all good. We’ll know the butcher’s bill tomorrow.

If you were wondering about who was donating what, here’s the comparison between the EU states aggregated together and the US.

This is interesting:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Have Proven Once Again That Ukrainians Are Capable of Achieving Their Goals in Any Situation – Address by the President

13 August 2024 – 20:05

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, there have already been several reports from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi about the situation on the front and in the areas of our operation in the Kursk region. We are expanding the area of active operations. The Commander-in-Chief reported that our forces control 74 settlements in the Kursk region. I thank every soldier, every commander who ensures this. Once again, I thank all our guys who are replenishing the exchange fund – this is very important for our state. Hundreds of Russian servicemen have already surrendered, and all of them will receive humane treatment – they did not experience such treatment even in their own Russian army. I had a separate conversation with Minister of Defense Umerov, representatives of the Verkhovna Rada and the Office to ensure that all payments, bonuses, and other things planned for the front will be guaranteed and quickly provided to our warriors – to all defenders who perform combat missions on the territory of the aggressor state. And without any bureaucracy for our warriors. This is a general and obligatory policy of our state – our defenders must be protected from any bureaucratic pressure. Today, at a special meeting, we also discussed new decisions and legislative initiatives that we are preparing for August, and which will definitely strengthen our state, our defense, and our society. And today we also held a meeting of the working group on the energy security point of our Peace Formula. The meeting was attended by representatives of 40 partner countries and international organizations. We are preparing the work – it will be online work, starting in August, at the level of advisors; it will work out a concrete way to ensure energy security. I am grateful to everyone who is helping. And now all of us in Ukraine should act as unitedly and efficiently as we did in the first weeks and months of this war, when Ukraine took the initiative and began to turn the situation to the benefit of our state. Now we have done the exact same thing – we have proven once again that we, Ukrainians, are capable of achieving our goals in any situation – capable of defending our interests and our independence. And we must make full use of our achievements. And we will. We are paying attention to every direction of our state’s defense. To all frontline directions. Donetsk region – Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kramatorsk directions. Kharkiv region. The South. Special attention is paid to the Kursk region, and thus to the protection of all our border communities nearby. The more the Russian military presence in the border area is destroyed, the closer peace and real security will be for our country. The Russian state must be held accountable for what it has done. And it is.

I am proud of our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

The reason:

Some of you may have seen that Germany’s MOD spokesperson stated that once the weapons are turned over to Ukraine and Ukraine can use them as they see fit within the limits of International Humanitarian Law (IHL).

This is, apparently, an accurate statement. However, there’s some nuance that I want to highlight.

From United24 Media: (emphasis mine)

Weapons provided by Germany to Ukraine, from the moment of their transfer, become the property of Ukraine and can be used by it as it deems necessary and correct.

This was stated on Monday, August 12, by the spokesman of the German Ministry of Defense Arne Collatz, the correspondent of Ukrinform reports.

The German Ministry of Defense does not question the legality of the reported Ukrainian actions on the territory of Russia’s Kursk region, since international law provides for the possibility of conducting military operations on the territory of the aggressor country for the sake of protecting one’s own state, noted Collatz. Therefore, according to him, this does not provide for any special conditions for the use of weapons provided by the Bundeswehr.

“After handing the German weapons to Ukraine, they already belong to Ukraine, they are Ukrainian weapons… There are no obstacles, so Ukraine is free to use them as it decides,” the officer said, adding that Ukraine is obliged to comply with international law.

Collatz clarified that the use of long-range weapons is a different, political issue, but this is not the case.

The deputy spokesman of the Federal Government, Wolfgang Büchner, for his part, said that Berlin is intensively consulting with its closest allies and with the government in Kyiv regarding the “specific weapons systems” used by Ukraine.

More at the link.

To sum up, the German position is still yes, but…

Latvia:

Here’s the machine translation of the Latvian tweet:

The next drone pack is ready! Around 500 drones manufactured in Latvia will provide support
🇺🇦 for Ukrainians in various combat missions.
#DroneCoalition
#StandWithUkraine

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

We now have an idea of some of Ukraine’s strategic objectives with the Kursk offensive:

I am constantly in touch with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, receiving reports on the frontline situation and our operations in the Kursk region. Despite the difficult and intense battles, our forces continue to advance in the Kursk region, and our state’s “exchange fund” is growing.

74 communities are under Ukrainian control, where inspections and stabilization measures are being carried out. The development of humanitarian solutions for these territories continues.

I am grateful to our warriors for their heroic service.

Preparations for our next steps continue.

The “exchange fund” that President Zelenskyy is referring to are the Russian POWs that the Ukrainians have taken. One of Ukraine’s strategic objectives is stockpiling, for lack of a better term, Russian POWs that can then be exchanged for Ukrainian POWs and other Ukrainians that were taken prisoner and are being held by Russia.

The Financial Times has the details:

Ukrainian forces sought to solidify their gains in newly seized Russian territory on Tuesday after capturing hundreds of Russian soldiers as Kyiv’s brazen incursion entered its second week.

The shock offensive has swiftly gained significant ground in the Kursk region, embarrassing President Vladimir Putin and lifting the spirits of a war-weary army that has been fighting on its heels for much of the past year.

Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group that works closely with the defence ministry, said the country’s forces had “advanced in Sudzha and captured Guyevo . . . and fully entrenched themselves in Goncharovka”.

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky on Tuesday evening said his country’s troops had advanced by up to 3km in different directions in Kursk region, taking another 40 sq km and that they were holding 74 settlements.

Ukraine has also captured hundreds of Russian soldiers, according to videos published by military brigades and verified by the Financial Times, to hold as prisoners of war who could be swapped for their own troops in Russian captivity. A series of such swaps have already taken place.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday expressed gratitude to “each of our units that replenish the exchange fund for us, for Ukraine”.

“Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home,” he said, hinting the incursion would strengthen Ukraine’s hand in any potential talks with Russia to end the war.

The challenge for Ukraine’s leaders now is deciding whether the potential benefits of pressing on justify the risk of deploying more troops and resources urgently needed on the eastern front, where Russia has made steady gains.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former defence minister and chair of the Centre for Defence Strategies, a Kyiv think-tank, said Ukraine should “either . . . press further or hold” the territory it has taken, “depending on risks” being constantly evaluated.

Kyiv’s operation is unprecedented in the 10 years that Russia has been at war with Ukraine, and marks the largest foreign incursion into Russia since the German army stormed in during the second world war.

The scale of Russia’s security failure has prompted rare, candid discussions in Moscow. Alexei Smirnov, the governor of Kursk region, told Putin on Monday that Ukraine controlled 28 settlements after entering 12km past the border over a 40km-wide stretch.

Putin abruptly cut him off, saying this was a matter for the military and ordering him to focus on the “socio-economic situation”.

Zelenskyy on Monday said the operation was also designed to alleviate constant Russian attacks on Ukraine’s neighbouring Sumy region, which on Monday night included drone strikes.

Western military aid has more steadily flowed to Ukrainian units on the frontline since a long-stalled package worth $60bn was approved by the US Congress in April, but Kyiv’s army remains outgunned and outmanned by Russia.

In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have pressed dangerously close to the garrison city of Pokrovsk and strategic towns of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Niu-York.

Deep State’s map of the front line showed much of Niu-York under Russian control on Tuesday. Ukrainian soldiers who fought there before joining the Kursk operation told the FT they expected Niu-York to fall in the coming days.

In Donetsk region, the Kursk fight has been met with a mix of elation and frustration.

“I’m glad our boys are having success in Kursk,” said a senior Ukrainian officer on the frontline in Donetsk region. “We still have a hot fight here. I hope [our commander-in-chief] Syrsky remembers this.”

Much more at the link.

Here’s another assessment from the Blackbird Group’s Emil Kastehelmi:

The Kursk offensive, situation update.

The operation continues. Ukrainians have expanded their area of control, pushing north towards Lgov and east towards Belitsa.

We had to modify some map visualization styles to better represent the situation. 1/Image

Part of the Ukrainian focus seems to have shifted to the southeastern part of the AO, to the Belitsa direction.

Ukrainians have likely entered several villages between Belitsa and the state border. There are some uncertainities, as there’s very little material from here. 2/ 

A Ukrainian APC detachment managed to go as far as to the village of Giri, next to Belitsa.

However, they suffered significant losses and likely had to retreat. Belitsa and the immediate surroundings are most likely still under Russian control. 3/ 

The town of Sudzha is likely mostly, if not completely, under Ukrainian control.

In Korenevo and the nearby villages, the Russians are still actively defending. Ukrainians are close, but there’s no indication they would have entered the town with a larger force. 4/ 

Ukrainian groups are also maneuvering on the northern side of the AO. It’s unclear how deep they are able to penetrate, but the Russians don’t seem to have a very solid defence line there yet.

Still, Lgov is a very long way to go, if Ukraine wants to capture it. 5/ 

Ukraine holds the initiative. There’s still a possibility Ukraine opens up a new direction to support the current effort.

There have been various attacks over the border in several places in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts, but nothing very major yet. 6/ 

Even though Ukraine has made tactical progress in many places, the general situation in Kursk hasn’t changed very much in the recent days. Battles are still being fought in the area of the tactically important towns of Sudzha and Korenevo. 7/ 
While the Russians don’t seem to be very organized yet, they have been able to somewhat control the situation. Ukraine should have the ability to gain more ground, especially if it’s ready to tolerate heavier risks and commit more troops to the fight. 8/ 

In the near future, I’ll analyse the possible goals and scenarios more, as the Kursk offensive progresses.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor the situation. Our interactive map can be found here. 9/9

Serhii Prutskykh, call sign “Kum” [“Godfather”], is one of the authors of a video with residents of the Kursk region speaking to Ukrainian soldiers in Ukrainian.

He said that residents of Kursk region complain that electricity and gas disappear when Russian troops withdraw from different areas. Ukrainians are helping people whenever possible by bringing water and food.

📹: Radio Liberty

Here’s Rob Lee with a description of what’s going on along the

The Kharkiv front:

The “Hartia” unit took part in repelling Russian assault on the Kharkiv front this morning. 5 tanks were destroyed and damaged, four dozen infantry were neutralized:

“On August 13, at 6 a.m., Russians attempted to attack the position of the 13th bBrigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the direction of Pylne-Lyptsi and Pylne-Hlyboke. The Hartia unit detected the attack in a time and confidently repelled the assault, inflicting heavy losses on the enemy.

Russian tank attack consisted of two columns of 6 tanks, equipped with massive protection against FPV. Each tank carried a landing force of 8-10 infantrymen. The first column of 6 tanks moved to the positions of the 13th Brigade of the NGU.

Russians did not manage to reach the front edge of our defense. The fighters of the brigade inflicted a powerful ateikes with all available means, stopped and destroyed the column.

As a result of the confident and determined actions of the “Hartia” servicemen and the quality management of the battle, 4 tanks from the enemy column were destroyed, another tank was damaged.”

https://t.me/khartiia/858

The Vuhledar-Novomykhailivka front:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Reader Interactions

18Comments

  4. 4.

    Carlo Graziani

    It may be the case that the Ukrainians have assessed that whatever gains the Russians may make in Donetsk, including the capture of Pokrovsk (a major road hub, not dismissable as an incremental gain) are more than compensated for by the establishment of a substantial, defensible lodgement in Kursk province. If the Russians need to press it back gradually, as they’ve been grinding on in Donetsk, the lodgement will be a bone in Putin’s throat and a threat to his power for months, possibly well into the Winter.

    Also, while expectations of an immediate slackening of the pressure in Donetsk due to the Kursk offensive were never realistic, over the course of months, it seems clear that Russia cannot sustain two such all-out meat grinding offensives, and they will be forced to choose one. 100:1 odds it will be Kursk.

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Whatever happens, the Ukrainian assault into the Kursk region has certainly been a political victory, & finally seizing some initiative from the Russians since the Summer ’23 offensive culminated.

    Have to watch what happens on the Donetsk & Kupyansk sectors, though.

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Putin can’t let the UA dig in in the Kursk lodgment, but I am concerned that the lodgment will be facing long range Russian fires from 3 sides.

    Just as the RA can’t sustain all out assaults across Donetsk, Kupyansk & Kursk, I am not sure the UA can sustain determined defenses across these sectors either. Until the surprise Ukrainian assault, the Kursk sector seemed like an economy of force operation  for both sides.

    Of course, now both are expanding mobilization.

  7. 7.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Certainly, defense of a salient shaped like a tendril-festooned end-on potato, such as some of the “territorial control” maps appear to show, would likely be a short-lived affair.

    However, it seems unlikely to me that this is the intention. Given the level of meticulous planning that has gone into this offensive, and assuming that the operational objective is to establish some defensible lodgment intended to last for several months or more, then it is reasonable to expect that there will be some consolidation soon, and that the assets required to build defenses (diggers, concrete mixers, minelayers, razor wire spools, defensive artillery, etc.) are already on the way, if not already in-theatre.

    We should learn something interesting about the future from what the Ukrainians do once the Russians succeed in forcing a definite culmination of the offensive, probably within the next week or so, at any rate.

  8. 8.

    Carlo Graziani

    One thing to note is that the road net around Sudzha is very sparse, with the nearest genuine major crossroads, besides Kursk itself, is Rylsk, about 60 km NW of Sudzha and 25 km NW of Koronevo. Assuming the mid-September mud season is as impressive here as in Eastern Ukraine, the Russians have a little more than a month to get rid of the infestation before their ground assaults get narrowed to drives down two roads. So the territory maps seem a bit misleading of the nature of the possibilities for Russian riposte.

  13. 13.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: Yes, sorry, I was adverting to the Russian distraught view of the matter. I still have not mastered emojis, being an old person.

  14. 14.

    YY_Sima Qian

    This is interesting (map & satellite images through the link):

    OSINTtechnical
    @Osinttechnical

    Russian forces are rapidly digging a network of trenches in Kursk Oblast, with only one catch: The trenches are 45km behind the border. Russian forces have been developing a trench network that, if fallen back to, would cede Ukraine a massive amount of territory.

    …

  17. 17.

    patrick II

    The Zelensky Kid: Can I move?

    Strother: Move? What the hell do you mean Move?

    The Zelensky Kid: Draws, fires, Blam! Blam! (destroys rock).  I do better when I move.

  18. 18.

    Mallard Filmore

    There are some railfans here that follow Adam’s postings.  The YouTube channel “ATP Geopolitics” found an interesting Twitter post that explains the high value of capturing Sudzha’s railway station.

    21:33:  intelligence hit a gold mine on Russian Logistics in near Real Time.  The capture of Sudzha may not seem Grand on a map

    21:41

    but the capture of the Railway Station may allow Ukrainian intelligence direct access to Russian Railway computer systems, schedules, train consists, …

    https://youtu.be/_iXFIvhRPhs?t=1287

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