Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing great. Nothing much more to report until her next treatment on Monday. Thanks for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, I’m still fried, so I’m going to try to keep tonight’s update as short as possible.
Third, I’m aware of the new reporting that an investigation has concluded that the Ukrainians blew up the Nordstream pipeline back in 2023, that the US asked President Zelenskyy to stop the operation, which he did, but GEN Zaluzhnyi went ahead with it anyway. I’m not going to cover it in depth yet because while it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me if the Ukrainians did this, the chain of events described, including that GEN Zaluzhnyi would disregard a direct order, as well as the logistics of pulling this off, need clarifying. I just don’t want anyone asking what I think. What I think is that I have questions.
The Russians have continued their aerial bombardment of Kharkiv.
Russian forces targeted the village of Zolochiv in the Bohodukhiv district of Kharkiv Oblast with four aerial bombs. The attack caused extensive damage to at least 26 houses, civilian infrastructure, a music school, and a kindergarten. A 12-year-old boy was injured, and five… pic.twitter.com/yQez2bZR7I
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 15, 2024
Russian forces targeted the village of Zolochiv in the Bohodukhiv district of Kharkiv Oblast with four aerial bombs. The attack caused extensive damage to at least 26 houses, civilian infrastructure, a music school, and a kindergarten. A 12-year-old boy was injured, and five other civilians experienced acute stress reactions.
Russian aviation strikes enterprise in Kharkiv Oblast this afternoon: two people killed https://t.co/0XfhsS2Evh
— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) August 15, 2024
Here are the details from Ukrainska Pravda:
A Russian airstrike on the village of Prykolotne in the Kupiansk district of Kharkiv Oblast has killed two people and injured six others.
Source: Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office
Quote: “The investigation says that on 15 August at around 15:20, the Russian Armed Forces carried out airstrikes on the village of Prykolotne in the Kupiansk district. A strike was recorded on the territory of a civilian enterprise. A fire broke out in a warehouse building with a total area of 800 square metres. Two men aged 44 and 57 were killed. Five other people – two women and three men – were injured. Those who were killed and injured were employees of the company.”
Details: Later, the prosecutor’s office reported that the number of injured had increased to six. A 47-year-old man, also an employee of the company that came under Russian airstrike, asked for medical assistance.
Sumy Oblast:
Russians dropped aerial bombs in Sumy Oblast: one killed and one wounded – photos https://t.co/446tK9prfZ
— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) August 15, 2024
From Ukrainska Pravda:
Russian troops dropped two bombs, likely guided aerial bombs, on the civilian infrastructure in the Sumy district on the evening of 15 August. As a result, a man was killed and two more people were injured.
Source: Sumy Oblast Prosecutor’s Office
Quote: “The investigation says that on 15 August 2024 at about 17:30, the enemy dropped two guided aerial bombs on the civilian infrastructure in Krasnopillia hromada of the Sumy district, using methods of warfare prohibited by international law [a hromada is an administrative unit designating a village, several villages, or a town, and their adjacent territories – ed.].
And Kyiv:
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko urged residents to remain in shelters.
Ukraine’s Air Force warned of a drone threat.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 15, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
It Is Time to Adopt Important Legislative Things – Defense Legislative Package for Ukraine – Address by the President
15 August 2024 – 15:22
I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!
I have just held a meeting of the Staff. There was a report by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. The front – our key directions of defense. Toretsk. Pokrovsk and other directions. Currently, most of the Russian attacks occur there – and the maximum of our defensive attention is concentrated there. The priority supply goes there. Everything that is currently needed. In addition, the Commander-in-Chief reported on the operation in the Kursk region. We have a new advance. We have a new replenishment of our “exchange fund.” General Syrskyi also reported on the completion of the liberation of the town of Sudzha from the Russian military. And a Ukrainian military commandant’s office is being established there now. Several other settlements have also been liberated. In total, there are already more than 80 of them. I thank every warrior of ours who ensures all this. Well done! Also today, the strategy for the return of our people from Russian captivity was presented at the meeting of the Staff. There are many sensitive details. Things related to the formation of lists. Things related to our work with partners. I have instructed the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine to present to the public the details that our people need to know about how we return the prisoners. I have also instructed that civil society organizations representing the relatives of Ukrainian military personnel and civilians currently in captivity be involved in this work. Such confidence-building is necessary. Everything will be presented at the briefing.
And also now, in August, we need to strengthen certain legal positions of our state. It is time to adopt important legislative things – a defense legislative package for Ukraine. These are the decisions that will help Ukrainian warriors, the whole Ukrainian society, and our state institutions.
First. We must clearly guarantee at the legislative level that our warriors, who participate, for example, in the Kursk operation and will participate in all our other actions on the territory of the aggressor state, will receive absolutely all payments and benefits designated for the frontline. And this should be made a law, so that all our people can be sure that the state will act as it should.
Second. Every warrior who defends the Ukrainian state, defends our people, defends our independence, deserves recognition and maximum support. In particular, this is true for our warriors – Ukrainian legionnaires – who currently have citizenships of other countries, but not yet of Ukraine. They deserve to be our citizens, citizens of Ukraine, and should receive this honor from the Ukrainian state. It is also fair to extend this to their relatives, the families of our heroes.
The third decision. The issue of trophy weapons won by our warriors in battles must be regulated. We must handle this.
And one more thing worth mentioning now. Anyone who serves Putin or justifies his war or helps evil does not deserve to retain everything the Ukrainian state has honored them with. Traitors who fled to Russia after February 24. Collaborators who work for the war. All criminals who went to serve the Russian state. They should be stripped of all titles and awards in Ukraine, and this should be done substantively – so that the decision to revoke their awards is not merely declarative, but genuinely reflects Ukraine’s stance on such individuals. The relevant draft laws are already in Parliament.
And I ask the Verkhovna Rada to convene shortly to urgently consider these issues.
Of course, in addition to these decisions I have mentioned, there are some other no less important legislative initiatives to strengthen our independence, including spiritual independence, and the necessary governmental work to implement them. All this should be done really quickly.
Glory to Ukraine!
The US:
⚡️US-Ukraine discussions about long-range cruise missiles ‘in advanced stages,’ source says.
The timeline of when the missiles could arrive in Ukraine is unclear, a source close to Zelensky’s administration said, adding that this fall is in considerationhttps://t.co/dN4aielZCk
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 15, 2024
Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:
Discussions between Ukraine and U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration about supplies of long-range cruise missiles are “in the advanced stages,” a source close to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration told the Kyiv Independent.
The timeline of when the missiles could arrive in Ukraine is unclear, the source said, adding that sometime this fall is in consideration.
President Zelensky’s Office declined to comment on the matter.
Earlier on Aug. 15, Politico reported, citing undisclosed sources, that Biden’s administration is “open” to supplying Kyiv with long-range cruise missiles to bolster the recently provided F-16 fighter jets, among other purposes.
Kyiv has been urging the U.S. to provide its long-range missiles for Ukrainian forces to be able to strike at Russian military infrastructure and logistics deep inside Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
The news comes as Ukraine continues its Kursk incursion into Russian territory, which has been deemed a tactical success. Ukraine claimed to control 82 Russian settlements as of Aug. 15. Groups of Ukrainian soldiers have also reportedly entered neighboring Belgorod Oblast as Russian authorities scramble to evacuate its population and send in reinforcements.
The U.S. has not yet made a decision about the missile deliveries but is working out the “complicated details,” Politico said, citing one Biden administration official.
Those “details” include reviews of the transfer of sensitive technologies and ensuring Ukraine’s jets can launch the 2,400-pound (around 1,089 kilograms) missile that carries a 1,000-pound (around 454 kilograms) warhead, according to the media outlet.
The Pentagon declined to comment on Politico’s request about the possible shipment of missiles but said that it is considering “a range of options to meet Ukraine’s security assistance requirements.”
According to Politico, the U.S. is considering providing Ukraine with JASSM missiles, which can be launched over 200 miles (nearly 322 kilometers) from fourth-generation F-16s. If delivered to Ukraine, JASSMs, developed by Lockheed Martin, would be the last missiles the U.S. has ever banned from being supplied to Kyiv.
JASSM missiles can significantly boost the combat capabilities of F-16s, as in that case they are not expected to fly close to the border with Russia because of the risk of being shot down.
An administration official warned that there is “plenty of work to be done” before any missiles arrive in Ukraine, including making sure that Kyiv’s existing Soviet-era aircraft and recently delivered F-16s can launch a missile at targets more than 230 miles (nearly 370 kilometers) away, Politico said.
Two undisclosed sources told Politico that the Pentagon is already working with Ukraine on these technical issues.
Ukraine has air- and ground-launched missiles provided by the U.S., U.K., and France that can reach almost 200 miles from the launch point, but restrictions on the use of missiles against Russian territory remain in place.
The U.S. gave Ukraine permission on June 1 to use some American-supplied weapons, including HIMARS rockets, to strike targets in Russia located near the border with Kharkiv Oblast after Russia launched a renewed offensive in the region on May 10.
Ukraine is still prohibited from using ATACMS and other long-range U.S.-supplied weapons for strikes deeper inside Russia.
The United States will decide on the use of American-made weapons provided to Ukraine, including F-16 fighters, for strikes in Russia depending on the situation on the battlefield and the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to the U.S. State Department.
Kyiv has repeatedly called on its partners to allow attacks on Russian military and industrial facilities to prevent Russia from fueling its aggression in Ukraine.
Heorhii Tykhyi, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Aug. 13 that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast would be “less necessary” if Kyiv were allowed to “fully utilize (its) long-range capabilities” against Russia.
Historians of the future will write thousands of essays trying to answer the question: “Why were they so painfully slow and irresolute all those years despite having a clear way to go in dealing with the biggest war of aggression of their time?”https://t.co/1rwW6CfcX5
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 15, 2024
For want of a nail!
Kursk Oblast, Russia:
An update from the @CinC_AFU Oleksandr Syrskyi on the operation in the Kursk region.
Since the beginning of the day:
◾ Our defense forces have advanced 500 meters – 1.5 km.
Since the beginning of the operation:
◾ The Ukrainian troops have penetrated 35 kilometers and now… pic.twitter.com/g1zxASbi52— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 15, 2024
An update from the @CinC_AFU Oleksandr Syrskyi on the operation in the Kursk region.
Since the beginning of the day:
◾ Our defense forces have advanced 500 meters – 1.5 km.
Since the beginning of the operation:
◾ The Ukrainian troops have penetrated 35 kilometers and now control 82 settlements and 1,150 square kilometers of terrain.📷: Illustrative photo by Roman Pilipey
Kursk Operation – Day 10: Key Updates
Ukraine:
– Advances further into Russian territory
– Reports its largest single-day capture of over 100 POWs
– Establishes military command in controlled areas of Kursk Oblast
– Secures full control of Sudzha
– Launches hotline for… pic.twitter.com/LYrRIQVmSe— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 15, 2024
Kursk Operation – Day 10: Key Updates
Ukraine:
– Advances further into Russian territory
– Reports its largest single-day capture of over 100 POWs
– Establishes military command in controlled areas of Kursk Oblast
– Secures full control of Sudzha
– Launches hotline for Kursk residents, offering humanitarian aid and evacuationRussia:
Continues counterterrorist operations
Ukraine sets up military command in Kursk region under General Moskalyov, reports Commander-in-Chief Sirskyi. Ukraine have advanced 35 kilometers since the operation began. The key mission now: to demonstrate Ukraine’s distinct and principled conduct in contrast to Russia’s. pic.twitter.com/RSF9i7EY8e
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 15, 2024
Establishing the first Ukrainian occupational commandant’s office in Russia (sic!) and appointing General Eduars Moskal-iov in charge of it… now that is what we call having a former comedian as the wartime president.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 15, 2024
A wounded Russian soldier gets evacuated from the battlefield… to join lists of POW swaps later and help get Ukrainians home. pic.twitter.com/0SyVqM6Sjx
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 15, 2024
Ukrainian special forces captured 102 Russian and Chechen troops in Kursk Oblast on Aug. 14, a Security Service of Ukraine source told the Kyiv Independent on Aug. 15.
The POWs belong to the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division and the Chechen Akhmat unit, the source said.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 15, 2024
The Kyiv Independent has the details.
Editor’s note: The Kyiv Independent obtained more footage of the prisoners of war but chose not to publish them due to ethical concerns.
Ukrainian special forces captured 102 Russian and Chechen soldiers in Kursk Oblast on Aug. 14, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent on Aug. 15.
As part of Ukraine’s cross-border incursion into neighboring Kursk Oblast, special forces from the SBU carried out an operation on a Russian military base on Aug. 14 that resulted in the largest single capture of Russian troops so far in the war, according to the source.
The prisoners of war (POWs) belong to the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division and the Akhmat unit, a Chechen group of forces that fights for Russia, the source said.
Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Akhmat unit, was the first Russian commander to acknowledge Russian troop losses sustained by Ukraine’s Kursk incursion.
Alaudinov, a close ally of Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov and an official at the Russian Defense Ministry, admitted on Aug. 7 that “our people died, that’s a fact. The enemy has entered several settlements.”
The source in the SBU described the base in Kursk Oblast as a “sprawling, concrete, and well-fortified company stronghold,” which had facilities including personnel quarters, a canteen, and an armory.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a report to President Volodymyr Zelensky on Aug. 14 that Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk Oblast had captured more than 100 Russian troops.
The source did not clarify if Syrskyi was referring to the results of the same special operation.
Zelensky said on Aug. 14 that he was “grateful to all involved,” and the taking of Russian prisoners would allow Ukraine to return more of its own POWs that Russia is holding.
“This will speed up the return home of our boys and girls,” he said.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi told reporters on Aug. 13 that “unlike Russia, Ukraine does not seek to seize territory” but wants to “protect the lives of our people.”
Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast aims to prevent Moscow from sending additional reinforcements to the front in Donbas and stop Russian cross-border strikes, Tykhyi said.
And here’s the video that was embedded at the bottom of the article. It is an interview between The Kyiv Independent‘s Frances Farrell and Australian Major General (ret) Mick Ryan.
All those calls “not to provoke Putin” were delusional and servile to the aggressor.
All those countless “red lines” towards the Kremlin were self-defeatism and appeasement that undermined global security.
All those endless “escalation management” games were only impeding the…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 15, 2024
All those calls “not to provoke Putin” were delusional and servile to the aggressor.
All those countless “red lines” towards the Kremlin were self-defeatism and appeasement that undermined global security.
All those endless “escalation management” games were only impeding the West’s security and Ukraine’s ability to fight back, and only facilitated Russia’s war machine and encouraged it to expand its aggression.
All those squeals like “Kneel before Putin or face WWIII” or “Not a single bullet for Ukraine” were a crime against humanity that directly played a role in the largest European war of aggression since WWII that has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
All those calls for Ukraine to “surrender for peace,” or “negotiate a compromise,” or “make territorial concessions” and give Russia a chance to catch its break in war now and attack again soon in a better shape — are only help precipitate an even greater catastrophe and the loss of life.
It’s time to finally start feeling things real — and make ultimate conclusions from what’s happening in Russia’s Kursk region instead of listening to ivory-towered pseudo-experts and security analysts, as well as irresponsible demagogues.
Support my work:
http://buymeacoffee.com/saintanger
PayPal: [email protected]
As we near the end of this third year of the fullscale war, where we watch Ukrainian troops plow into russia, let us remember this “expert’s” opinion on supporting Ukraine. Why does this guy have a job? Why was he allowed to talk at the @WhiteHouse ? pic.twitter.com/EKBvOYCYwm
— SK Media🇺🇦 (@SpaghettiKozak) August 15, 2024
Chasiv Yar:
🇺🇦 FPV drones destroyed a “no-analogue” russian BMD-4 worth $600,000 in the Chasiv Yar direction.
📹: 24th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/4i2lFtFxbg
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 15, 2024
Sumy Oblast:
We seem to have lost a HIMARS in Sumy region to an Islander missile.
Crew reportedly survived (unconfirmed!).
War is war, losses are inevitable. But systemic measures are critically needed to counter the presence of Russian surveillance drones in our rear front. pic.twitter.com/ERpglk2eY1
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 15, 2024
Irkutsk Oblast, Siberia, Russia:
“Now that’s a fucking blast!!” (c) 😨 pic.twitter.com/fi475k3kRD
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 15, 2024
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
A Russian Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Irkutsk Oblast of Siberia due to a malfunction, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Aug. 15.
The crew managed to eject. No damages or casualties were reported, as the plane fell in a deserted area, according to the ministry.
Irkutsk Oblast Governor Igor Kobzev claimed that the plane went down during a routine flight near the village of Mikhaylovka, around 120 kilometers (75 miles) northeast of the city of Irkutsk.
All four crew members have been found and are being provided with medical care, the governor said.
The Ukrainian authorities have not commented on the crash in Irkutsk Oblast, over 5,000 kilometers (3,106 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
Russian forces regularly use Tu-22M3 long-range strategic and maritime strike bombers, commonly armed with AS-4 heavy anti-ship or Kh-22 cruise missiles, in airstrikes against Ukraine. Some of these planes carried out the heavy bombardment of Mariupol in 2022 using unguided bombs.
In April, Ukrainian anti-aircraft units shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber for the first time. The Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Russia’s Stavropol Krai on the morning of April 19, just after Russia launched an attack on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed the aircraft crashed due to a “malfunction” while returning to its base airfield after completing a combat mission, according to Russian state-controlled media.
In August 2023, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said Russia fielded 27 operable Tu-22M3 strategic bombers.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns 🌝💓 #песпатрон
Open thread!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Osinttechnical/status/1824202151033225688#m
the contract,…………
https://nitter.poast.org/Osinttechnical/status/1824202153642299423#m
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re most welcome.
Baud
When they go low, we go high?
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
I am out of my depth here, so will state that up front. When Ukraine pushed into Russian territory, my impression was that it was partly a psychological operation to show the Russians they weren’t safe and ratchet up internal tensions between the Russian state and its people. The side benefit of scooping up Russian soldiers is also useful for prisoner exchanges. However, I read in the WaPo that they are pushing further into Russian territory, which surprised me. How long do you think they can hold on to this territory? Is there some other goal that I am missing?
Jay
@Baud:
https://nitter.poast.org/victoriaslog/status/1824115654737158645#m
With video.
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1824001884849308021#m
with video
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1823977357713039861#m
with video
Bill Arnold
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat):
Likewise.
I will add however that Russia’s main demonstrated method of capturing a defended city is to reduce it to rubble.
There will be some reluctance, not sure how much, to do so if Ukraine decides to defend a region that includes a captured city or large Russian town.
Jay
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat):
Ukraine has not announced the strategic goal of this offensive.
From what I have read from “Z” bloggers, Ukraine continues to move armor and infantry into Kursk. They continue to exploit gaps in ruZZian defense’s, entering their rear, forcing the ruZZians to either retreat or be surrounded.
Looking towards ruZZia from the Ukrainian position, the Ukrainian military has a massive swamp to their right, high hills to the left, where they control the high ground with only a few single lane dirt roads passing through the low points.
To the front, there are only 3 paved roads each of which has a major bridge, one has been badly damaged to the point only cars can pass, the other has been struck and damaged, but not badly, yet.
It’s a good strategic, defensible position.
wjca
At a guess, zero reluctance. Easy enough to claim that the Ukranians were the ones who did the dirty deed. And it’s not like the Russian military cares about Russian civilians. Just look at how they treat their conscripts.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Yes.
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
@Jay: Thank you.
I think what has been so impressive about Ukraine and its military is how quickly they adopted a professional corps in such a short time and it shows in how they operate from top to bottom.
Sally
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat): I commented yesterday that I had read that there have been many fewer Ru bombing raids since UA moved into Kursk, due to UA air defence being moved forward. Ru pilots more at risk of being shot down.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
SteverinoCT
I don’t know if anyone will see this. But, I don’t get the joke. Is the name of the general in charge of overseeing the region have something to do with Moscow? That’s my best guess.